to navigate these markets. >> 133 on the dow, which is just surprising that the bank of england makes that move and maybe there's hope here that we don't have to go as fast as we thought. >> s&p right now up by about 10, the nasdaq down by about 10 points they're going to be picking up coverage with david and jim, who are right here at delivering alpha. that does us for us today. right now, it's time for "squawk on the street. ♪ good wednesday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla at the new york stock exchange. cramer and faber at cnbc's delivering alpha investor summit in new york today, and what a day to have that conference as futures swinging green here as the bank of england blinks, says it will buy long-dated bonds to calm markets and meantime, hurricane ian does look to hit florida, potentially as a cat 5, the ten-year retreating from 4%

overnight. our road map begins with con teen contagion risks. seven fed speakers set to cross the tape today >> plus is consumer demand waning apple reportedly backing off plans to increase production of its new iphone 14 line and carl, as you know, shares are moving lower ahead of the open. we're also going to talk a lot about biogen those shares are up sharply as a new study shows an experimental alzheimer's drug dramatically slowed progression of the disease. carl >> you're there at delivering alpha, already under way and jim, there's going to be no lack of ammunition in terms of conversation today >> that's very interesting, carl at 5 after 5:00, it looked like it crashed the only area that had held up in this market yesterday was the nasdaq, and obviously, with apple down almost six points, of which i'm going to refute later

in a few minutes, there seemed to be no way that there could be anything other than the final collapse, september collapse, of this market. and then, we got another country's -- another country's currency, another country's bank plan, another country's buyback of gilts that suddenly changed everything, and i'm going to argue, david, that we, while attached to that country, are not necessarily being dictated by it, even though the two-year seems to have reacted to it. >> to your point, the bank of england said, we're dysfunctioning this market to continue to worsen there would be a material risk to uk financial stability. this would lead to an unwarranted tightening of financing conditions hence, we're doing what we have to do to make sure that we maintain stability >> this is the rebellion by one authority versus another at bank of england, carl, is

basically saying that whatever the country's doing, we're going to save the country. now, we all know that the pound is collapsing. we all know that the euro is collapsing so, this could be something that, ifyou're very attuned to the fact that the dollar's been straight-up, maybe it changes the tune, maybe it changes the narrative of where we are. >> maybe dollar index got to 114, highest in 20 years again. euro hits 95 cents jim, when you're hiking and buying bonds, i mean, i heard the phrase policy cacophony a lot today. bank of england canceled a speech for today about balance sheet reduction. what's that doing to risk premium? >> i think that what it says is maybe someone around the world is saying that this whole tightening venture is beginning to make it so we are going to be in a worldwide recession can you imagine if a jerome powell just said, you know what? we're done the markets would take off

of course, that's completely the opposite of what we keep hearing. and yet, the two-year, carl, which is my barometer for what the fed is going to do, has moved down in interest, rather radically, after moving relentlessly toward what seemed to be five david, you know the two-year's been in charge, not the bank of england. so, i hesitate to say, well, the bank of england's calling the tune, and we do have a federal reserve. >> we do, and we have pointed out, for a number of sessions now, that it is the bond market that's in control, and that on those days, when we're seeing yields higher in the two-year and the ten-year, we typically will see a market that is lower and the reverse obviously happening today. i continue to try to check, you know, are there any blow-ups out there? you've asked this question as well, jim, because in a period like this, where you have these -- these incredibly intense moves, whether it be in the pound or in the bond market, you do wonder who's been caught on the wrong side. so far, not hearing anything

substantive that would indicate there's anything to be overly concerned about, but it's certainly something that a lot of market participants are aware of and watching. >> we have to emphasize that if you have very short treasuries, you can borrow against them, and you can buy all the two-year you want, which seemed like a terrific, terrific idea when it was at 3.5 before the jackson hole speech. now we have to understand, carl, the jackson hole speech is really seminal, that little -- just the little sentiment from powell, which says, you know what this thing's way out of control. and that caused the two-year to blow out, and whoever was making that terrific trade to buy the two-year has been destroyed. but we don't know who it is. >> yeah. we don't know who it is >> other than me >> carl, of course, it's not like we don't have other news as well that we're watching this morning, including the apple news, which i know jim wants to talk about >> yes >> which is based on a bloomberg story at this point, in terms of

them not increasing production to the level that they previously indicated, so they were going to go up by 6 million units in the second half of the year now they're not so they're going to stick with what is, what, an aim to produce 90 million overall units, but stock's down. >> although, i saw jim tweeting about this morgan stanley note, jim calling it more bark than bite >> right, well, morgan stanley has been the best, and a lot of people say, wait a second, jim, that's -- that's katie, and she's no longer in charge. i'm looking at it. i spent a tremendous amount of time last week speaking with suppliers off the record but also with a major phone company off the record, and while you may believe that apple's suppliers are talking to bloomberg, any supplier that talks to bloomberg will immediatel immediately be cut off

apple's made that clear to me a number of times. that's why i have said, own apple, don't trade it. every time we get one of these stories, i'm told by people very high level that anyone who talked to bloomberg is fired now, apple's the largest company on earth when it comes to this, so why would you risk being fired by having an off the record discussion which then becomes on the record with bloomberg, unsourced not only that, but the main reason why there has been tremendous demand is that att and verizon are desperate to keep their customers, given that fact that t-mobile has kept its pricing down, so it may be entirely possible that someone wants to spread a rumor to get apple down, which would be, david, exactly if you were a -- let's say, somewhat nefarious, you do, in order to break the nasdaq >> that's true although, you know, i built my 35-year career on hoping that people will talk to me when perhaps it's not always in their best interest to do so, jim, so i'm not necessarily in the habit

of criticizing other journalism. we've seen stories like this in the past you are right. >> that's my point >> oftentimes, they are sort of a misdirection not always and in this case, i would point out there were positives in this as well where they're claiming that higher-priced iphones are actually selling at a more rapid clip than the lower or entry level. >> i did speak to three apple suppliers, all of whom, obviously, are afraid to talk to me about it, and all said, please, jim, just go with the status quo this is the opposite of status quo. so, carl, what happens is, again, i'm not saying that there's some vast conspiracy to move the nasdaq lower. i am saying that as of last thursday, i have different information: it's entirely possible that this weekend, which included, by the way, david, rosh hashanah, may have been the weekend that apple lowered the boom but it

certainly wasn't lowered by thursday and let's make clear, thursday night, where the information was still good it's entirely possible things changed radically. >> but not what you heard. >> as of thursday. >> right although, they're not talking to you, those suppliers >> no. no, they're not talking to me. >> so they're mute but they shake their heads, yes or no >> i endlessly ask this question, and i endlessly say, this could be the make or break for the apple and for the nasdaq and what i get is, jim, there's nothing happening, meaning, i'm not going to be quoted as saying there's nothing happening, but there's nothing happening. as opposed to saying, you know what, i see a dramatic shortfall. carl, you know there's probably in the 22 years that i have worked with the network, i probably had to refute these stories maybe a dozen times, but maybe this is it maybe this is the one that finally brings apple down. >> yeah. i mean, we joke about it when, say, nikkei runs a piece but i

don't know whether you feel it's any different when it comes from a service like bloomberg >> my problem is that i'm talking to the suppliers too now, it's entirely possible, again, that by them saying, status quo, that they could be in on it, in on the conspiracy to make me feel positive about apple, versus the conspiracy to be negative. but if you look at the morgan stanley note, you know, morgan stanley has been right the whole way. they're saying, there's nothing new here and david, that's what i'm saying >> understood. and your point on verizon and at&t is valid as well. anyone who watched football over the weekend, it's endless ads for the 14th which would help in some way marketing for the phone itself >> are you saying it's hands-down verizon that's a little joke on the -- >> hands i never get tired of hearing him say hans >> we watch those ads which

shows you there's a plan to make it so you have these i did pull up with t-mobile. t-mobile's having, you know, they've got a lower price than everybody else, and t-mobile is not afraid to say that things are good >> no. well, things have been better for them than they have for their two competitors. carl >> i was just going to say, morgan stanley's point, jim, as you know, is that it's demand for the pro and the pro max that's offsetting weaker demand for the regular 14 and the 14 +. it doesn't alter their view or imply any downside to our iphone shipment forecast for either q3 or q4. >> well, what's important is that as of two weeks ago, the focus was that the pro max is selling incredibly well, and that that's in keeping with what is being said, and again, it wasn't like anyone said that the regular 14 was doing better than expected, but the 14 max is doing better than expected, as

are the watch, as are the buds so, david, when i look at all this, how about i -- how about i revert to shakespeare? >> please. i always enjoy that. give me a little of the bard >> much ado about nothing. which, by the way, was a completely second rate -- >> was it? second rate comedy >> when you look at the comedies, which i studied -- >> what do you rate number one >> of the comedies >> yes >> merry wives of windsor. >> really? >> yeah. >> not sure i know that one. >> hey, listen >> you learn something every day at delivering alpha, don't you, carl, including ranking the comedies -- >> king henry iv part 2 is the best history >> brush up your shakespeare, as we like to say, guys what's the day look like for you guys over there today? >> well, it was supposed to crash earlier on the morning it's so hard to get -- to have things crash at 5:00 and then

uncrash at 9:00. >> are you doing anything here today? in terms of interviews or anything i don't even know. >> i'm here. >> i know you're here with me. but i got john gray. >> oh, yeah. good for you i have spartan national last night. >> and whitney woolford. this was on "mad money" last night? this was your investigation of grocery prices, trying to figure out inflation. what did you find? >> i found there were 47,000 inquiries to try to get prices up, spartan national, but costco is calling every one of the companies that raised the price of their food and of their goods and saying, you told us it was steel. you told us it was corn. you told us it was beef, and you know what? we're done you're wrolling prices back. if you want to know who's holding the line, it is not

mester it's not brainard or powell. it's gilante it's ko costco so, go to costco, and you'll get the prices previous to the pandemic you get prepandemic prices so kashlgscarl, i think it's imt to recognize that some companies like costco have more clout in the trenches than jay powell >> yeah. b of a's ngot an incredible chart. aven avocados off the highs pork down 24%. hogs down 16 beef down 15, jim. those retailers are trying to preserve some margins, you could argue. there's a lot more to get to today -- >> the guac's the same price we have to look into that. >> we'll talk some biogen soaring on this alzheimer's drug news we'll talk docusign. don't go away.

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biogen is soaring. the company and its japanese partner saying their experimental alzheimer's drug dramatically slowed progression of the disease in a see the, retusing cognitive and functional decline by 27%. we've talked about what a tough nut this is to crack dr. gottlieb seemed to think it

does slow cognitive decline. >> well, this is something that i think the government would pay for, which is truly important. dr. gottlieb also talked about lilly. i think that lilly's is better chief spokesman for the american brain foundation and for the american migraine foundation, and we believe that these do effectively roll back plaque and that -- >> alleloids >> and lilly does it better but just rolling back plaque is not enough >> we still don't understand the connection, necessarily, between the ameloids and the progression of the disease the scientists seem to believe they're connected and therefore, if you can prevent the accretion of amaloids, you can stop or slow the progress. >> do you think that the cms, the government will pay for this >> for viewers who perhaps are having deja vu here, there's a drug on the market from these two companies that was met initially with great hope and

then not because the data didn't support it and then surprisingly, to go back, remember, the fda did approve it, only to find that the government would not actually pay for it and they basically stopped marketing. that was the last therapy these two companies had that they did say slowed the progression of the disease, although the data was very uncertainly on that is it surprising to you? >> shocking. absolutely shocking. >> shares of biogen? >> and i am telling people who are members of the cnbc investing club that this is a time to take profits in biogen and roll into lilly. why? >> where are we on the lilly data have we received anything similar? >> i have my own sources that indicate it's better they have more than -- >> they have not yet given up primary end point, anything like that >> this -- the rollback of the plaque has already been established and done well for lilly. it's other things that matter. the reason why i feel more, i

would say, more comfortable recommending lilly is because they have an actual drug that reduces weight >> right completely separate. >> a diabetes drug but that may be the biggest drug of all time. >> so, if, in fact, they're not successful in attacking alzheimer's, it's not as though it's a bet the company kind of thing. we can go back and take a look at biogen stahares, i don't kno, the enormous run-up when we got the initial word i remember being onset, the three of us, talking about, this is a potentially huge breakthrough and by the way, it is. we're talking about a disease that is insidious, as we all know, that affects so many different families and that conceivably would lead to what might be the largest selling drug in the world, should it be approved and found to be effective and paid for in part by the government as well. >> huge story. and has been, as we've been trying to hammer out some of the wrinkles, as jim says, about payments >> and remember -- you have to take it for 20 years >> of delivering alpha

we'll get cramer's mad dash and count down to the opening bell take a look at futures we'll keep our eye on hurricane ian and some of the stocks that might be hurt or benefit, actually, from the landing of that storm and of course, delivering alpha, this wednesday, live shot of the stage here roger ferguson among the speakers we'll inbrg you some headlines back in a moment what's up, peyton? good morning, peyton. hold for peyton. they'd huddle.... welcome to the peytonverse. such a visionary. game plan... you go. no, you go! and call audibles... double our investment in omaha! omaha! omaha! omaha! or you could use workday. omaha. the finance, hr and planning system used by over half of the fortune 500. for a be-agile-like-an-mvp world. workday. for a changing world.

we are back right here at delivering alpha for a special delivering alpha edition of the mad dash where you want to head here? >> things very negative. you agree with that? >> i have a keen sense for the obvious, as i like to say, and i have noticed things have not been great >> now, have you brought land away from new york to be sure?

>> i do have land away from new york, and it's actually on a hill >> even better so you can refence that. but perhaps we should take the fence down and think of what boss said today. he is talking about nike, he's overweight nike, but he's saying it's seven multiple turns versus where it was before the pandemic in other words, the nike's gotten to the cheapest, basically, he's ever seen it one thing that has not worked are any calls which say that something has gotten really cheap. >> no. >> however, when i read through the nike piece, i say to myself, you're basically saying that china's done, and you know, that china's not done and i think that the idea -- >> done or not done? i'm not following. >> i'm saying the idea that nike sales are finished in china is a big mistake, and i just think that there are a lot of things now happening, david, if china were to end the lockdown, which is what's supposed to happen

after the plenary convention >> that's something you've heard as a possibility >> yes >> once xi is elected for lifetime, then he will no longer have his reputation at stake in terms of maintaining zero covid. >> now, dr. brilliant, who was the consultant for the movie, contagion," which i urge you not to watch, did say that the best that their vaccines are, about 40%. >> you talk about that as well back to nike and china >> i just think -- no, i'm just saying that when you look at voss's piece, what he is saying is this is not the end of china. he's overweighting it, saying 130 target, based on 27 times our calendar year '24, which is pretty much what it's been and i just think that this is a piece that i regard as calming >> it's true, but you raised an interesting point, which is, you can have many analysts who point to a lower pe as a reason to buy, but in a period like the

one that we're currently in, low pe doesn't -- or lower or cheaper doesn't necessarily work >> we're looking for touchstones, david >> every day, i see stocks get cheaper. >> i feel like it's "hamlet," which, by the way, was the best of the tragedies, and you know, i think that we have to start thinking of other shakespearian references, including the fact that "as you like it" may have been the better comedy i want to correct myself i like nike. >> we got a lot more from delivering alpha and a lot more for you omfr "squawk on the street." opening bell just a few minutes away

>> announcer: the opening bell is brought to you by nuveen, a leader in income, alternatives, and responsible investing. >> we mentioned the turn around in futures this morning on the heels of bank of england, but we'll see if that holds, jim you know, s&p, down six in a row. we haven't done that since the start of covid, and it's happened maybe 20 times since 1950 a year later, 90% of the time, you are higher >> well, we do have the highest level of negativity on multiple

different indications, including consumer, from michigan. we also have what i follow, which is the lowest since the pandemic low, but we keep getting information quality. major apparel company cutting its numbers rather severely. goes to 260, 270 david, you know, it represents the consumer, powell, vans, lot of different clothes doesn't it concern you that the consumer's buying power is slowing? >> the line is while economic uncertainties persist, we're actively addressing challenges in our business and remain confident in their ability to generate consistent, sustainable growth >> that's north face that's a household name. >> speaking of some people yesterday who advised many companies, i don't know that we're going to see, in the third quarter, a lot of misses, but we are going to see a lot of commentary about headwinds, although i don't know how often we're going to hear the

word "recession. we haven't moved into the heart of third quarter earnings season yet but we have gotten a few warnings along the way >> we do have, as of last night, guys, this news that lyft is going to freeze all hiring in the united states. docusign this morning, jim, 9% reduction in workforce, $40 million charge tom lee's got a pretty interesting chart, if you looked at conference board, help wanted yesterday. 6% off the highs, lowest growth rate since march '21 sends to lead jolts by about three weeks. we'll see if that gets ratified. >> well, i think that if you're jay powell, you might regret the comments that you just made saying we need -- maybe we need more multiple of heights kind of reminds me of 2018 when he didn't realize the strength of his words and he caused the market to go into a tailspin that he had to then change his attitude, not that long ago. i think it's better to speak

softly no, shut up. >> how about that? why doesn't he just stop jawboning? >> i think he took rates where he had to go >> will he stop talking now? >> i can't tell. i don't know if he's going to stop talking >> what do you mean? you seem to know everything else >> he's got a family he talks to them those are great people to talk to you don't have to talk to everybody else mortgage applications now decreased another 3.7% fixed is going to 7. obviously, we have a housing crisis and you're going to be having a very hard time getting a mortgage rates have now doubled from a year ago now, what has to happen before they say, you know what? maybe we ought to just wait to see what a 7.08% 30-year fixed does because remember, those rates may not be available david, one of the things i've learned, when you have rapid rate increases, that means you get turned down. but if you have cash, you might want to buy. >> yeah, but not a lot of people buying houses right now, right

>> i'm in a transition moment in housing. i am fighting the idea of getting seven for a new property >> excuse me >> i'm buying something. >> you are now? >> yes >> why would you do that >> because i thought rates would be dramatically lower. carl, we can't be right on everything, all right? i mean, i didn't think they would be 7 i thought they would be 4 or 5 or 6 do i hear 7? how about 8? can gi go to? powell wants to do it, i was a professional auctioneer. i see eight in the back. >> i've seen you >> no, we're not going to get to nine >> i've seen you do an auction, jim. it's pretty amazing, but you're right about that, refis, 22-year low, and we did kay schiller yesterday, first decline in a decade, so definitely some wood get getting chopped if you're the fed. >> if you're really conspiracy about all this, then powell probably wants it -- you need a 30% decline in housing if you

want to call deflation i mean, sometimes what i think powell's looking for is actual, genuine deflation. david, deflation means a radical pullback in everything that you have bought in the last two years. now -- >> that's not going to happen. i mean, all we -- >> oh, really? thank you, mr. seer. >> we're just going to stop going up on inflation, aren't we >> no, he may want deflation part of the problem is that 34% of our fertilizer comes from russia, belarus, and kyiv. >> yes >> well, ukraine so, the problem with that is -- what's powell's plan on food >> i don't think he has one. >> really? >> i don't know, jim does he? >> carl, the problem with food is somewhat out of the fed chief's control. >> okay, see i got it right, carl i got the answer right >> food is something we all participate in so, that's one of the major intractable parts. now, a lot of people are criticizing my view that what he

really wants to do is lower wages, but the critics -- >> lot of people criticizing >> but the critics are wrong, because what he said over -- you know, he doesn't want job hopping. he does not want people to go from getting $15 to $17, and i have got news for people who are thinking about that. i spent a lot of time in the restaurant business, carl. one thing i can tell you is, it's a heck of a lot easier to get waiters and cooks than it was one year ago jobs galore. >> yeah. jim, as for the -- today's open -- people applying galore >> apple's going to be our biggest s&p laggard, followed by all the suppliers, jim, even with the caveat that morgan stanley tried to point out >> well, i mean, morgan stanley's been right a lot, but what i am concerned about is, i mean, we have an announcement from qualcomm this morning saying things are on target. if you take a look at my show last week -- >> qualcomm's made some interesting moves in automotive.

last week -- i mean, they have moved much more aggressively in terms of becoming sort of the digital platform in automotive, create a tesla outside of tesla. >> that's gm gm, when you speak to kyle vogt, who does their autonomous cars, he's saying that's a bit of separate but carl, we are seeing companies frantically trying to get away from cell phone and rechange their status because they see that china's not buying the cell phones. >> it's not a growth business. >> no, it's not a growth business >> not for the supplier. apple, of course, we mentioned, down we hit biogen, but it's worth coming back to and lilly, because shares are up 6% to your point made earlier in terms of their attempts to address alzheimer's, lilly is benefitting this morning, although, again, i'm relying on jim here because he's followed it much more closely they have yet to release data. >> they're not ready yet they're up 28 -- they were up $28 at 5:30. >> what was up $28 >> stock of eli lilly.

>> oh, they were up for. meanwhile, biogen is advancing by almost 38.7%. again, on what would be amazing news for those who are suffering from this horrible disease and the family members who do, which is the idea that if you were to take something -- again, 27%, but that's better than zero in terms of actually arresting the progression of the disease or slowing the progression of the disease. we'll have to wait and see we've been down this road before with biogen, to some extent. and it didn't particularly end well >> and i know no one wants to hear this, but the studies that have been successful involve taking it far earlier, so that you prevent alzheimer's rather than if you have it already. and that means one of the reasons why the government, i think, has been reluctant, carl, is that you're talking about perhaps even taking it 20 years before you have it, and you have to see your bloodlines are there people in your family who have had it? >> my god, the costs would be

astronomical, potentially, for the government >> it would be more than the tuition saving >> yeah. $400 billion guys, a couple of other stocks to away. twitter, yesterday, there was that three-hour hearing in front of chancellor mccormick. we haven't gotten rulings yet, a lot of back and forth here, sort of to try and sum it up, i mean, one of the more interesting things to come out of it was that musk's own data scientists did not back up his claims on the bots in terms of how many or what percentage of accounts are actually bots on the platform. it was used in open court, although we hadn't heard it before, so that was interesting. and you can see what's happening to shares of twitter remember, this does not move on the economy. this does not move with the market this moves on the likelihood or lack of likelihood -- or lack thereof, that this deal will be

consummated at $54.20. when you see it up, that's because more people believe it's likely today >> it's very important because you know the others have fallen apart. the others in the cohort could not be -- >> we said, if, in fact, twitter were to lose and musk were to be able to get off with nothing or a billion dollar payment, this stock would collapse i think that's a fair point. we can all debate where, but it doesn't really matter. it's down 20 bucks at least. but that said, jim, musk was using signal, the app,the texting app, essentially, that allows you to do things when they disappear or it's -- it can't be hacked in this way. nothing, right and he didn't keep the signal texts that he did or had, and twitter's lawyers are saying, you knew we were in litigation then you were told to preserve your texts, didn't do it.

we'll see where this all ends up a lack of text messages, they want the correspondence between gordon, the key financing bank, along with many others for the $13 billion in debt that the twitter buyout will require, and musk, their correspondence, and we still haven't gotten a deposition from mr. musk and even though they've said the 6th and 7th, i'm told, that's not a hard date, but time's running out here the trial starts the 17th. >> as you can imagine, i pulled up with some key people at twitter when i was out west. let's just say, they're ready to work with elon musk. >> what does that mean >> they said that he's going to be the boss. >> they believe that he will be the boss >> right so, the bit of a resume factory, but they do expect that musk gets it, and they're trying to figure out whether musk would want to keep any of them and i think that's an interesting point. but david, i know whereof i speak. they're waiting to work for the new man. carl, back to you.

>> jim, i want to get you on hurricane ian. it does look very serious, very slow-moving, good chance of a category 5 landfall, maximum sustained winds of about 155 miles an hour. we know about tampa's vulnerability in flooding. wells today tries to compute what kind of comp benefit home depot and lowe's might get maybe 40, 50 basis points in q3, but they point out with all the disruptions, the fact that the initial sales are low-margin items, you don't necessarily end up with a beat >> well, these companies, let's just say, they have a heart, meaning, they offer tremendous amount of services for no cost whatsoever but if you go back to hurricane andrew, it was one of the -- you know, talk about really one of the worst hurricanes ever in florida. it was the beginning of a multiyear run for home depot so, i was with home depot in last two weeks

they didn't need this -- obviously, no one wants this, cat 4, but i think home depot is an interesting place to go, simply because i've never seen the multiple go down here other than in 2008, and david, 2008, home depot got through it just fine >> yes, it did >> notice the tinge of optimism that i'm demonstrating this morning? >> there is a bit of optimism. >> i think it's because i'm at delivering alpha >> you are, and i'm at delivering alpha as well we're here for the first time in a few years, by the way, in-person. it's nice to see people here, both, of course, many guests who are attending, and the people who are -- >> is that becky quick >> yes that was my phone. it's all right >> everyone's here everyone who matters is here >> i don't see it. and that was becky quick, by the way. barry was a guest earlier as well here. >> and you had jonathan gray >> i do. but i want to focus on zerdos because delivering alpha is the name of the conference and she

talked about how difficult it is right now to find alpha. >> it's impossible to find beta right now, positive beta it's actually the easiest time in the world to find alpha there is alpha everywhere. the little title somewhere said, where is the alpha now it's everywhere. it's in stocks it's in bonds. it's in currencies it's in real estate. it's in private markets. it's in public markets like, it's everywhere, because we are in such a state of change >> such a state of change, jim >> well. >> alpha's all around us >> well, i've got to tell you, david, this conference is more important than ever because i have never seen many people be as befuddled, so you come here, which is not too late, by the way, to come here, and you will find out that there are many people not only who are befuddled, but they tend to have one or two touch stones, and i'm trying to gather touchstones becky got her phone. >> oh, good. >> i like to be

service-oriented >> as do i i stopped the broadcast to look for the phone. you can't go without your phone. >> i lost my phone i lost my phone. i lost my watch, it broke at the same time. it was a major crisis. and i had to do everything that i can that i even have -- i have to get the 13, the day before you could get the 14 everyone's decided the 14 is a complete writeoff. let me tell you something, someone trying to get the 14 good luck. >> speaking of, carl, apple shares are down 4% that does appear to be pressuring the nasdaq a bit, which is in negative territory this morning so far. >> yeah. 4% decline on apple. dow holding on to 60 points. vicks awfully close to 34% this morning. let's get to bob pisani. >> 34% starts to get a little panicky. 35% is really the level where we were in the june 16th low so keep an eye on the vicks there two to one advancing the declining stocks but it has a tentative feel that bank of england announcement moved futures about 50 point up in the preopen but

all feels tentative. let me show you the sectors. energy's moving. we've got a slight bounce in oil, bouncing off the lowest level since january. remember that. and i'll tell you what concerns me the stuff that should have a notable bounce, ark is doing okay, there's a risk on. semis aren't, probably because of pressure from apple right now. metals and mining up are fractionally so a little bit of a bounce overall but not terribly enthusiastic, given the fact that we're down six days in a row in the s&p 500 carl was talking about apple just take a look at apple and apple's suppliers. you're going to go a long time before you see apple is the worst performing stock on the s&p 500, and most of the suppliers are also, like, taiwan semi, also on that list of worst-performing on the s&p 500 as well. you won't see that very often. of course, on that story that apple will decide to maintain production for the iphone 14,

not increase demand for it notably, you're getting pushback from some of the big bulls on apple, some of the big analysts that are out there i see dan ives at webush this means much higher asps, that's average selling prices, and a clear tailwind for apple into fy23 at this pace so the bulls are still out there. the question is, what are they willing to pay for it? and apple's down about $4. s&p 500, well see if we can hold up here, down six days in a row. that is a fairly rare occurrence it's only happened 20 other times since 1950 and for those of you who are worried about what it means, generally, you're higher a year later. 90% of the time, we're higher and up 20% on average one year later. my thanks to ryan for the tweet

on that. just a little reminder for everybody about how quickly the market can move and how quickly it can repair i.t. the s.e.c. called out 15 majors firms yesterday, i'm talking about every one of them, including goldman-sachs and jpmorgan and morgan stanley, the s.e.c. fined them $1.1 billion, the cftt fined them $710 million collectively they uncovered what they call pervasive off-channel communications what does that mean? there's been an explosion of text messaging on wall street, using apps like telegram and whatsapp well, you can't, essentially, see what's going on. they are -- the firms are required to provide records and keep record of communications between traders in case the s.e.c. needs to investigate. people are essentially using their private phones or messaging apps to essentially conceal what they're doing the s.e.c. has called the firms out on it, and the bottom line

here is you are going to see a hammer come down on a lot of wall street traders from their firms themselves that are now going to be very much enforcing rules that prohibit them from doing this this is a clear violation of s.e.c. rules, but apparently, it's been pretty lax in terms of the enforcement. that's probably going to change. >> thanks, we'll talk to you in a while. bob pisani quick reminder, you can always get in on the cnbc investing club with cramer find out more at cnbc.com/jointheclub as always, we like to give you a qr code on the screen that takes you right there. as we go to break, time for the bond report. more fed speak on the way today. bullard, powell, bowman, evans this afternoon, and as for the uk, that 30-year on track now for the biggest drop, the biggest daily drop in yields going back to at least 1992. we're back in a minute

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let's take a look at the delivering alpha investor survey participants were asked where they think oil prices will finish the year. 23% said under $80 a barrel. 74% predicted between $80 and $100 3% say between $100 and $120. >> where is 50/60? >> i don't know. i guess nobody more "squawk on the street" and delivering alpha when we come back

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i think it's going to take a while. it couldeasily take through next year, and the band would have to fall way off for us to have the demand side solve this problem. this is really fundamental to our economy. we have to deal with this a supplier at a time and i think it's going to last for a while. >> busy week for cars. that's going to take us to stop trading, jim >> exactly what you heard, citi going from 16 to 13 on ford. i find this a little absurd frankly because there's been problems all the way around. what matters is demand

if you sell ford here, you're selling at a 5% yield. i'm not a buyer of the sell call i wasn't a buyer of the apple sell call and i've had them say i'm dead wrong. >> we've got citi, jim, joining in we believe apple's order flow remains resilient. our forecast also unchanged. >> i worked really hard on this and came up with these stories, and i just can't change my mind and say, well, i've read these stories and they're quite different from what i heard with my own ears last week. look, it's entirely possible that everybody i talked to was wrong. you're talking about a room full of people that went to the red hot chili pepper concert >> you've got paychecks tonight with a beat -- >> yes, and we've got -- this is a transition to a new ceo. we've got something from lululemon which is going to blow people's socks off if you have the mirror

i think the mirror is not heir to the peloton, better than peloton, even before peloton fizzled and became the way that my wife had her undergarments dry. probably shouldn't have said that >> a little tmi, jim we'll see you tonight on "mad money," 6:00 p.m. eastern time more "squawk on the street" continues. truck ken miller is on stage saying the fed made a mistake, nasdaq flat with apple down 4% not easy to do we're back in a minute

. good wednesday morning welcome to another hour of "squawk on the street. i'm carl quintanilla with morgan brennan. david faber live at delivering alpha investor summit today. markets getting supported by the b of e blinking on long-term paper over there, helping offset concerns about hurricane ian and reports about apple production housing data to start the hour.

>> pending home sales fell 2% from auguin august from july. sales down 24% year over year. these numbers are based on signed contracts the 30-year fixed had crossed 6% in june, but came back tofrd 5% at the start of august that juiced sales of newly built homes as we saw in yesterday's report the trouble on the existing side continues to be very low supply and high prices. the realtors are still forecasting prices up just under 10% for all of 2022. interestingly one region saw a sales gain the west which is the most expensive region up just over 1% month to month still the deepest decline from a year ago that may be due to more supply available. t morgan it started this year at 3% >> what a wild year. diana olick, thank you

we're 30 minutes in the trading session. three big movers we're watching. biogen, shares surging, more than 4 times the 30 day average. showing dramatically slowed progression of the disease in a study. you can see those shares are up 36% right now. plus lyft, the latest to rein in spending where the workforce is concerned saying lit freeze hiring through the end of this year that follows a previous statement in which lyft said it would slow hiring dramatically as it seeks to cut costs those shares are up 2% thor industries reporting better-than-expected profit and revenue for the latest company the company seeing strength in its motorized rvs with a 24.5% gain over the prior year, but also flagging lower consumer confidence and macroeconomic uncertainty and saying it's adjusting some of its production levels in light of that as well. nonetheless, you can see shares of thor are up 3%. david.

>> thanks, morgan. the bank of england the big story this morning it will temporarily purchase long dated u.k. government bonds in an effort to stabilize what has been a plunging british pound. let's get to steve leisman who joins us on the cnbc news line to bring us the latest >> yes, a dramatic move by the bank of england, temporarily reversing plans to tighten policy by selling bonds, all of this coming in response to plans from the new uk government to boost efforts of spending. the announcement by the government has pummeled the pound and led to a sharp increase in uk government bond yields three things coming from the b of e they're going to purchase long dated bonds, that is reversing their qt or quantitative tightening plans, and they'll suspend their plans to actually sell assets next week until october 31st and then, of course, they're suggesting rate hikes will be coming to get back on track with

their plans to fight inflation the move is set to come as widespread problems at uk pension funds which were long, long dated bonds and created issues with derivatives that were outs there. the b of e looks to have at least for now accomplished the goals. the ten-year yields falling nearly 50 basis points to 406 this morning so creating this problems with -- alleviating a problem with market call that seems to be out there the u.s. fed futures market ricocheted on our shores here, priced in less fed tight stening. the outlook falling to 4.15 from 4.30 the peak rate coming in at 4.41 from 4.76 last week. troubles in england create concern for the u.s. as the fiscal side may be hampering the fed's efforts to fight inflation, especially after the biden administration's recent massive student loan forgiveness. i talked to m.i.t. professor

kristin forbes she sat on the uk's monetary policy committee and said the uk is a wake-up call that the bond virginiaal an tease are back the u.s. has to pay attention that the fiscal side matters the fall in sterling helps the uk economy except that it raises inflation making the b of e's governor job harder. b of e governor holding the line saying there will be no intermittent rate hikes. they meet november 3rd, markets pricing in a 75 basis point rate increase the b or e was early in addressing inflation and led behind others. >> steve, how much risk is there overall on this? they say, of course, the purchases will be unwound in what they call a smooth and orderly fashion once the risks to market functioning are judged to have subsided will they be successful in that? is there a significant risk that they may not

>> it sound right theoretically, david. the way you put it out there, yada, yada, yada, they reverse course and they'll come back the trouble, of course, is they're buying bonds now, makes it -- gives them a harder job in terms of rightsizing their balance sheet on the back side of this. the people i talked to this morning says what theoe did makes sense. it's the first book or the first item in the book of central banking is you've got to have markets functioning. clearly there was a widespread and deep concern by the boe about market functioning if you have a meltdown at pension funds, you really can't do your business so they had to address this, and then hopefully they can get back -- by the way, andrew bailey spoke about this earlier, this idea of targeted quantitative easing or

tightening either way over a year ago the program wasn't ready to do it, but now it looks like they're doing it in response to an emergency situation so i guess some hope for success, but we've not been down this road before with a lot of this stuff for the central bank. >> we're seeing moves in the bond markets generally that we haven't seen in a long time, if ever steve, thank you steve leisman. carl, back over to you. >> for more on the markets let's bring in jeff klein stop and bny head of equities and capital markets alicia jeff, down six days. internals have been very rough central banks trying not to break things does this add up to a decent time to start buying in stress >> well i think a lot of time horizoning -- i think the most -- thing to watch is what's

going to happen with -- >> going to wait to see if that feed gets better alicia, let me turn the same question to you. if this is going to improve at least on the seasonality alone, are you looking at shopping lists at this point? >> carl, it's a great question i think many of us on the street are cautious in the near term because of the fundamentals that are coming at us very quickly and daily and also the seasonality here we quickly turn the calendar into a much better period in the fourth quarter, certainly by the end of the year and after this election that we've hardly talked about at all recently because of the volatility in other places tend to have a better coming out of the year than you do coming into -- at the end of the third quarter. i'd say this: what jeff was starting to say is the time horizon really matters here.

you have many companies now trading at eight times earnings, 12 times earnings, and the estimates have come down and they've taken into the fundamental fact that next year is going to be a difficult year. to that extent it is a buying opportunity for those kinds of names. we'd be selective here but when the trade is all going in one direction, which is bearish, we all know that day is coming where it's going to reverse. that doesn't mean it's tomorrow. but it does mean it's on the horizon in the next 12 months. >> right if you're looking at names with high dividends and looking at short duration, does that lead you to staples and utilities, or do you take a little more risk than that? >> i actually think it's okay to take a little more risk than that there are certain sectors that have really just been pounded. i'm not talking about the speculative names or the names of the earnings. the core fundamental companies where the historical multiple now has already come down. some of that is actually in

discretionary. discretionary really took it on the chin when the cyclical sectors sold off i look at that area. we love health care. i think theannouncement this morning from biogen is a great example of the innovation coming from the sector with historically depressed multiples here health care is a way to re-enter the market for the next 12 months we do like select industrials here for the rearming and reshoring in america which is clearly coming as a result of the tumult of the last 24 months so those are the areas we like you have to be selective you should expect some real volatility coming in the next few weeks or months. but i think we end the year on stronger footing, and you have to have the 12 to 18-month horizon. when you bias sets that are stressed, the history of markets are 12 to 18 months you'll be doing much better -- >> i get the selective piece of

this, alicia, and the argument you're making, the idea that the market could end the market on stronger footing druckenmiller came out and said he sees a hard landing in 2023, a possible deeper recession than in expect. we have quantitative confusion, for lack of a better term, coming out of the boe. why do you think we're on stronger footing at the end of the year >> there are a lot of risks, and we're cautious in the next, let's call it, three to six months i'd say ultimately, are you a trader or investor if you're a trader you're taking risk off the table if you're an investor, you're taking a look to see what's going to be all right on the other side of it it's not just about where is the trade going tomorrow in the last two weeks we've had two developed market central banks intervene in their currency and bond markets. i think you're seeing that, as

the fx market and as the bond vol gets more extreme, you're starting to see more central bank responses it is confusing. we should expect volatility, but ultimately we have to invest through this yes, near-term caution, and this has to play out, but ultimately we're on a better side we do not think there's a hard landing. our firm is in print saying we see a soft recession, 60% chance of recession you will have earnings down grades with a mild recession, but we come out of this better >> we'll find out. striking comments out of druckenmiller today. really looking for a hard landing in '23 we'll see what happens, alicia thank you. apple shares sinking on report that the company will ditch plans to increase iphone 14 production citing weaker than

antic anticipated sales. tom, i want to get your thoughts on this report and whether this is a bearish indicator right now or whether this is really something you have to dig through the details and look at the mix of the ex-poepected iph sales. >> the good news is for the iphone 14, they should do better than the iphone 13 to the extent that supply chain challenges -- persistent supply chain challenges prevented apple from meeting demand for the last line of iphones i think that's something working in the favor of the 14 now, that said, it is a challenging situation for apple. in particular we're concerned about the very strong u.s. zlar with more than half their sales outside the u.s. and do think apple may have to make multiple adjustmented to their prices and local currency for the iphone 14 thank the uk, europe, japan as

an example the good news is the core consumer has shown a willingness to devote larger percentage of a smaller amount of discretionary income on apple's products so i think at the end of the day, the company stock will be more than okay. >> when i see shares of apple down 4% now, leading the nasdaq lower as well. we're at $1.45 do you stick to your buy rating and your price target or are you rethinking that right now? >> i definitely stick to it. the other reason i think about why i remain bullish on apple over the next 12 to 18-month period, the company still generates a lot of significant cash flow and uses billions of dollars in that free cash flow to buy back its own stock. i do think despite the challenges in particular, the strong u.s. dollar and concerns about global recession, i think the stock is still compelling here for the reasons i've outlined >> just to broaden this out a little bit beyond apple, looking

at your coverage universe in general, whether it's the strong dollar, whether it's waning consumer confidence that we can potentially see, where would you expect to see cracks, if you expect to see cracks in consumer spending first >> sure. if you look at my coverage list which las a lot of e-commerce names, it's been a challenging time for those stocks. as far as where you're going to see cracks, i think you'll see cracks in some of the more discretionary spending areas what you're seeing is a lot of consumers engaging in revenge travel to the extent we were all cooped up because of covid and appreciate the opportunity to get out of the house, things of that nature. historically travel is an area where you see a bullback and spend. i think some of the more discretionary spending environment or focus companies, that's where we can see a lot of pressure. >> okay. tom forte, thanks for joining us today. as we head to break, here is

our roadmap for the rest of the hour including a closer look at the housing market mortgage refinancing dropping to a 22-year loan. >> hurricane ian now nearing a cat 5 bearing down on florida's west coast for what could be one of the costliest disasters in u.s. history. we'll have a lot more from this year's delivering alpha what stanley druckenmiller, marier mary erdose are saying.

welcome back we're live from this year's delivering alpha summit right here in new york city. leslie picker has been monitoring some of the panels and she joins us now with some highlights druckenmiller, for example, obviously longtime investor, once ran the quantum fund. he's been negative for a long time >> and that continued. that continue. no sea change there. we're on about our four panel of the day with conversation spinning global policy, global opportunities, investing hard truths including that of duquesne's stan truck en miller. saying the central bank made a big mistake and the repercussions of not acting fast enough on inflation will, quote, be with us for a long time as such, he's predicting a hard

landing by the end of next year. >> our central case is a hard landing by the end of '23, but i don't know i've been wrong on a lot of things i can be wrong on this since i do it for a living, that's our forecast, which is a recession in '23 >> despite the market volatility and unprecedented crosscurrents out there mary callahan erdoes says there's a runway for market outperformance. >> it's actually the easiest time in the world to find alpha. there's alpha everywhere the little title said where is the alpha now? it's everywhere. it's irresponsible to be passive in what you're doing right now i would say it's irresponsible you have to be sorting through the beta in order to get to the alpha. your investors are expecting you to do just that. >>erdoes says area investors should be thinking opportunistically including tell

kon, semiconductors. she called uk banks, and there is interesting, the most interesting thing to invest in right now and urged the audience not to bet against china she said, quote, staying invested in these markets is one of the most important things and one of the most difficult things to do. in about 20 minutes we'll be joined on squa"squawk on the st" by roy swan for a wide ranging discussion about esg which is a topic that magically hasn't come up with. very macro focused >> druckenmiller, he may have been wrong here and there, but he's always interesting to listen to. did he give a reason for a hard landing in '23 >> a lot of it, in his words, comes down to what happened with fed policy he thinks the fed basically saw that there was inflation out there and then sat on their hands for months and didn't do anything about it.

as a result he thinks we're going to see the repercussions for years to come because they were continuing to buy $120 billion worth of bonds while they were doing that he blames fed policy he blames fiscal policy. we've heard a lot of this theme today, this idea that inflation, you don't hear it's transitory anymore. it's not transitory if you have these salary increases those aren't going away. the economy basically has to experience that and go through the motions, and that's why he thinks '23 is the year for a hard landing. >> and a lot of opportunity, at least according to erdoes. >> it's hard to stay invested when you see all the volatility out there. if you want alpha, you can't do it with cash. >> no. leslie, thank you. we'll see you in a little bit with roy swan as well. morgan >> all right great stuff, guys. as we head to break, vf corp we're keeping an eye there, slashing q2 guidance with weaker

than expected performance. that stock still trading near its lowest level since 2013.

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welcome back to "squawk on the street." let's get a check on the home builders despite rising rates, ishares home builders eft has out performed the s&p over the last three months can that continue? key bank analyst ken zener joins us to break down the outlook ken, good to have you on, obviously with the exception of perhaps the new home sale rebound we saw esterday, data for housing has been weaker and weaker as we've seen interest rates move higher and higher do you invest in these stocks right now or steer clear for the time being >> we think this is the time to invest our recent thesis focuses on the

builder's relative outperformance to the s&p, over 19 cycles since 1963 we're not sure if it's a bottom. a lot of our clients invest relative to the s&p. we think their relative risk to return is very compelling. a lot of times, as rate concerns unfold, what you see is in the worst cycles, the home builders drop earlier to the s&p for shallower, softer markets. >> interesting what specifically would you be buying of the names you covered? >> right, we kept nvr as a buy during our negative view which we've had since january. we just turned around. that's because its cash flow and returns on inventory are high. if you think about nvr's capital-like model, it still takes trading at ten times earnings that could be considered a cash yield because it doesn't put up

much capital it's a stock call around the cycle. you think about the other home builders transitions to what will be a lighter asset model in time that's where we would start. >> is the expectation that higher-end home builders targeting that higher end consumer going to be more resilient than those that aren't >> no. we cover stocks. so demographic -- adjectives like demographic tight splay, we focus on return on inventory which is 90% correlated. the dispersion you see, number one, a little higher, some are lower. we're not negative on the stocks anymore. the returns on inventory are below their peers. >> ken zener, thanks for joining us today >> thank you >> close to session highs here

dow is up 210. let's get a news update with seema mody >> we'll start overseas. in iraq nine people are reported dead and 32 wounded after a missile and drone attack by iran's revolutionary guard iranian authorities accuse kurdish dissidents of unrest now shaking iran north korea reportedly filed two test fires north korea launch another missile into eastern waters on sunday cuba is slowly picking up the pieces after being hit by hurricane ian. 11 million people in the dark. power is slowly being restored in areas with the least storm damage hurricane ian is threatening florida with winds up to 155 miles per hour large waves are coming as shower in ft. myers florida governor saying the time

to evacuate has passed for people in the storm's path he says now the time to, quote, hunker down and prepare for the storm. morgan, back to you. >> seema mody, thank you our contessa brewer is looking at how insurers are preparing for the impact >> the florida insurance market is a mess. it's losing money even before the storm makes landfall property insurers lost more than a billion dollars for each of the last two years with underwriting losses back to 2017 dozens of florida insurers are facing ratings downgrades and may not have enough money to respond to a major catastrophe like ian over the last two years seven insurers have collapsed, at least 15 have left the state altogether property owners are scrambling to find coverage for many, the only option is the state-backed insurer of last resort, citizens as you can see, its number of policies have doubled the last five years it now represents more than 10% of the market. here is the market share of the

top insurers in florida. this is according to a.m. best progressive, by the way, rounds out the top five reinsurance costs are soaring, as much as a 50% increase. auto insurers are facing tough times as well. they're seeing claim frequency and severity skyrocketing, more traffic crashes plus higher costs to repair or replace costs. the premiums aren't keeping up in florida, berkshire hathaway, progressive and state farm are the largest three carriers per market share on the commercial side it's progressive and auto owners. census numbers show three-quarters of floridians live in these coastal counties large private flood carriers, aig and as as shurnt why does the industry say the florida market is in meltdown? government policies that don't really fix the market, fraud and

litigation, a big problem there. it's made it extremely difficult for insurance to run business in that state, morgan >> quickly, contessa, talking about all the challenges for insurers in that market, and yet for the most part insurance stocks are trading higher today, despite the fact this has the potential to be one of the costliest storms from a loss standpoint on record for florida. why? >> in part it's because the insurers in florida have reinsurance. they know how much they would have to pay out for a catastrophe like ian and when they hit that point, then their reinsurance kicks in. that's number one. the reinsurance market is very problematic. the second thing is, some of these insurers have way outperformed the market year-to-date, but have seen in the last month or so that they've really gotten soft we're seeing some of them down double dij flits the past month. >> all right contessa brewer, thank you

reinsurance, a tricky topic for tv. after the break, we'll speak with art cashin on how best to play this market volatility. we're back in two with the major ea t d a or at lstheownd s&p higher ♪ ♪ wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here! what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations, like real time cgi. okay... yeah... oh. don't worry i got it! become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq

after an hour in trading, s&p trying to pull away that 3600 level dow up 230 let's bring in uvs director of floored operations art cashin on the news line. you've long said you've wanted a washout, wanted a little panic, 9-1 down day, vix to 40. would you take 33? >> well, i think we're getting there, carl, but i think what you're seeing is a kind of bipolar market

the internal technicals are such that we're just screaming for a bear market bounce, you know, one of those 4%, 5% move over couple of days, kind of like what we saw in june. the bond yields have not held up we had the bank of england bailed everybody out this morning. relative to this bipolarity. look at monday and tuesday, we started out strongly better in the morning and then they faded and reversed yet we didn't get into a full trap door. so i think what the viewers want to do now is watch what the market does after 11:30 when the european markets close see what happens with u.s. yields do they start to move back up

assuming that the benefit of the bank of england is perhaps not there. i think what happens after 11:30 today could be a little critical markets screaming for a big rally and yet we're not getting cooperation from the headlines. >> kind of reminds me of what you said on friday which was watch -- if we don't bounce as europe close, afternoon could be tough. that's exactly what happened >> and that will be what certainly i'll be watching i think the influence of europe -- things we haven't seen popping around in a while, carl. arcane things like credit default swaps on a lot of the european instruments i don't know that we're looking on the verge of a lehman-like event, but certainly things in europe after the elections in italy -- i've never seen the imf

dra talk to the g7 administration the way they've talked to the new administration in england. they made it look like, come on, you're a banana republic, get together this tax cut was being roundly criticized which is very unusual. i'll keep my eye on europe because i think it is going to be key to what we're doing here. >> art, it seems like you have the political backdrop here in the u.s. and you have the geopolitical backdrop from a global perspective where all of these markets are concerned. i guess factoring those in versus the technicals, versus earnings, versus all of these different factors that investors now have to look at so closely, is the expectation that, if we are in a bear market, we're entering a new leg of a bear market, that it's going to be geopolitical happening that could potentially trigger a move

lower? >> well, it is because total car call report, the action today is an analog to the action in 1962. the latter part of that year did see -- the cuban missile crisis. let's hope there's not a taiwan missile crisis these rumors today about yellen possibly resigning what does that say about whether biden will go for re-election in '24? a lot of geopolitical balls in the air. for now i'm going to concentrate on europe and see if they can get that settled down first. >> you're not kidding, art europe, russia, ukraine, china and hurricanes, we've got it all this week. appreciate it. great to see you, art cashin david -- >> thank you >> thanks, carl.

as we head to break, give you another check on shares of biogen up 35% following very enco encouraging potential news for those that suffer from alzheimer's, a stud zin colluding japanese partner show at 18 months a new therapy reduced the progression of alzheimer's by as much as 27%. that was the statistical difference from the placebo group of great significance. we have seen biogen down this road previously. in fact, it has a therapy out there for alzheimer's that it's not marketing in part because the government won't pay for it because there continue to be questions about its effectiveness. you can see right now very positivery response.

>> -- a lot of social values ishlt that long run debate not motivated by long run value. that's become the retrofitted justification that firms are using to impose social agendas >> that was the self described scourge of social justice in the board room on squawk box last week our next guest, however, says there's been a misconception that esg investments nlead to underperformance or a breach of fiduciary duty joining us is the ford foundation's head of mission investments roy swan alongside our own leslie picker. nice to have you here. >> he's been getting a lot of press in part for taking this opposite opinion approach saying, hey, esg is not what you think it is. it's about marketing and causing bad things to happen what's the response to people who listen to and believe it >> well, esg has been conflated

with a lot of other concepts so esg is really a risk management framework sometimes it's conflated with impact investing that's what i do at the ford foundation what we found is that impact investing targeted properly can deliver great financial returns and great social impact. >> what does that mean >> in essence, the ford foundation, we battle inequality when you think about inequality, what that really means is a big mac crow concept of supply and demand for us, in our multifamily affordable rental housing area, there's a huge amount of demand for draconianly small supply whenever there's a supply and demand mismatch you can embark upon as an investor, it tends to lead to favorable returns. that's just one example. >> how does that differ from,

say, a charity, though >> well, with clarity, you're giving away money. so that's a negative 100% return we're actually trying to drive positive social impact and make money. that's the best of all worlds as far as we're concerned given that our endowment is used to fuel our charity so we can use more of our research, not just grant dollars to deliver positive social impact and risk-adjusted market rate returns you can't do much better than that. >> there is this belief and this reputation, though, that esg and delivering a positive social impact is costly, maybe somewhat akin to eating vegan versus eating fast food every day, it's going to be more costly to be a vegan than to eat meat in certain circumstances. what do you say to that especially as we look at the macroeconomic condition out

there, potential recession, inflation? what more costly >> i try to apply a healthy dose of common sense to things. not every area of impact investing is going to deliver risk adjusted market rates of return you apply some common sense, find areas where there's a good match of opportunity to drive positive social impacts and positive financial returns, that's where you place your money. you don't want to exaggerate the potential -- all the good that can come of impact investing without acknowledging that you have to be very careful just like traditional investing. >> one of the criticisms -- and this is something vivek was hitting at as well -- perhaps loose definitions, impact investing, stakeholder capitalism, the list goes on and on, has led to this idea that there's green washing out there. people are using these terms loosely as a way of marketing or improving their own asset flows.

what do you say to that and what do you think needs to be done to get past this notion that people are doing this for marketing purposes and doing it to drive profit >> this is -- first of all, let's start with sensationalism sells. opportunism can work for a brief period of time this is still a relatively new phenomenon, this concept of esg, impact investing, using those terms. there's a lot of volatility and meaning which creates opportunism. bad things will happen, but a lot of good will happen. i think as time goes on and we get through this volatility, reason will prevail, value will prevail, and we'll continue to move this train is out of the station. it might be a bumpy ride, but it's going to continue down the right path. >> do we have the proper tools to measure companies, for example, that say they're committed to it and/or investors who say they're committed to esg, so to speak, to see if

they're doing what they say and we can effectively measure the impact >> that's such an important point. the tools are still being developed. i think there are some industries that are well positioned the insurance industry, for example. we all need insurance in some way. the insurance industry, they're in the business of risk identification, quantification and pricing. so i think the insurance industry -- there's a lot of lessons to be gained there there are risk framework developers like the sasby foundation and other groups in europe as time goes on, again, this is a new field. it's advancing way faster than i expected i'm very optimistic about where we're going in the future, notwithstanding the charge debate. >> that will continue as well. we look forward to your appearance later at delivering after fa coming up this morning on

"techcheck," a lot more on apple today. one of the s&p laggards on recession lows it's dropping plans to boost iphone production among weakening demand session highs, dow up 1%, 300 points, same for the s&p all sectors green except to the flat line. stay with us

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take a short break here. check out some of the biggest gainers on the dow home depot will lead you a lot of eyes tuned to the impact of hurricane ian in florida. first, though, throughout hispanic heritage month we're celebrating our teammates and contributors here's gina sanchez. ♪ >> the benefits of being hispanic is that it is a naturally inclusive culture. you can come from many different racial backgrounds and be classed as humanitarian. the challenge to that is that it

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welcome back to "squawk on the street." near session highs with the dow up 1%, s&p also up just about 1%, 3681 and the nasdaq moving back into positive territory within the past hour up about two-thirds of 1% despite the fact that we're seeing apple drag on the broader markets. we have senior markets commentator michael santoli joining us to break things down and we'vebeen talking about it for days now, this technical bounce. >> we had the makings of it. market came in oversold, the stock market, in fact, it looks almost like the aftermath of some kind of mini crash was the setup but what was required was for the fever to break this terms of bond market

momentarily. at least that has happened yields coming in hard. it is a prerequisite for the stock market to respond. the week's highs for the s&p 500 is over 3700 so we're still below the highs of the prior couple of days so kind of a baby step story let's see if it can build on this from here beyond that, i feel like the volatility index got agitated up in the low 30s range people waiting for it and has topped out over the last year or so in the mid-30s so we'll see if that represents it coming together at these kind of stretch levels and the market has at least a shot of making something of this reversal. >> yeah, we've seen the last couple of days, we've seen the trading day start positive then turn negative art cashin was on a little earlier in the show. one thing he said he's watching is the europe close for the markets there given the fact we do have this news today. is there a possibility just looking at the last couple of days we could see a reversal

>> there's always i possibility. we are in this extremely twitchy, jumpy mode right now which is what happens. the s&p is down 12% in two weeks. that doesn't typically happen. you're seeing the percentage of stocks that are at washout levels pretty high one-fifth of it trades below ten times next year's expected earnings obviously the market does not expect those earnings to come through or else we wouldn't be twitchy. there's a lot of wreckage so it's going to spill back and forth for a little while but i think it makes sense after the european close see if bonds can remain subdued if that's the case it's fine because when the bond market is jumping everyone is taking mark to market losses on bond holdings, every single risk model says take less exposure, don't take a chance in stocks. that's why the process has to unwind for us to have a shot. >> such a key point. not only coming up on the end of the month but the end of the quarter and there's a lot of movement on that front too. >> exactly and the question is

are we culminating here with everything coming together at the end of the quarter >> that's right. we will see, mike. thank you. just going to give a shoutout that delivering alpha continues today and david faber is out there doing a panel later. "techcheck" starts right now good wednesday morning i'm carl quinnty nia with deidre bosa here with me and jon fortt. what the bank of england is doing to calm the market more tech companies slamming the breaks lyft and docusign and upgrade for netflix and in-depth look at the cord cutting what that means for how you play the streamers but we begin with comments made by stanley druckenmiller delivering alpha take a listen to this.