nike, weiss, today what are your expectations we have 20 seconds left in the program. >> retail environment is soft, and so i think that there's a chance to say, hey, you know what, we're going on sale, a lot of items and get back to where they should be in inventory. >> you've got china, obviously, a big part of that story we'll get some more information on, too. i'll see everybody a few hours in overtime. the exchange begins right now. stocks are tanking once again as the s&p 500 gets set to do something that it has not done since the financial crisis. welcome to "the exchange," everybody. markets are down big as global risks and runaway inflations spook investors. what is the real contagion risk right now? jobless claims falling to the lowest level in five months, but another inflation reading, one loved by the fed, coming in red hot. does this mean a larger rate hike in november is coming and how is this all impacting corporate earnings we're going to find out with nike and micron reporting after the bell the action, story, and the trade, today's earnings

exchange, but let's begin with today's move lower dom chu, we started off with what looked okay we were green for a bit. what happened. >> what happened was the markets finally reset and figured out, maybe things aren't as rosy given the bond buying picture in the uk ma we have is a market that's given up the bulk of what it got in yesterday's rally off the lows that we saw earlier in the week the dow industrials down 509 points over 2.5% declines for the s&p 500. it sits at 36.34 it got down to 36.19 at one point today. if you put that in the trade range perspective, at the highs of the session, we were down 32 handles for the s&p, at the lows, down a full 100. you can see tilting towards the lower end of that spectrum for the s&p 500. the nasdaq composite index just a hair above 10,701, down 350 points really the outsized laggards today, over 3% declines for the nasdaq composite one of the big drivers behind

that tech weakness in the nasdaq composite has been some real weakness in two parts of the market, and hence the nasdaq and maybe s&p trade. we're talking semi-conductor stocks into a lesser degree fintech stocks the ticker smh for chips are now down 27 and 57% respectively i've put up the year charts here, because what we have in trading today are both of these etfs hitting frech 52-week lows. again, the semi-conductor stocks, as an overall index, hitting 52-week lows that may not bode well for the rest of that tech trade. it's something to watch for sure and then the stock of the day, it has to be apple we've got bank of america analysts cutting that stock to in essence what is a neutral rating they've also cut their price target at the same time, you've got rosenblatt's security analyst upgrading the stock to a buy b of a thinks that this is no longer as much of a safe haven trade as it once was, and it could be, you know, subject to

weakening consumer demand. rosenblatt says their channel checks and surveys think that there is more robust demand for the iphone 14 than some people are expecting. net net, though, the stock is down 5% and right now, brian, because of that 5% drop, it is the single biggest laggard in terms of point impacts on not just the dow, but the s&p, and the nasdaq as well, by a pretty wide margin. keep an eye on apple shares. i'll send things back over to you. >> and apple is the biggest hold organize the top three or five holdings in 150 to 300 major etfs even if you don't apple directly, apple's down move is taking down your portfolio with it >> anybody who owns an s&p index etf for that matter. >> this is what happens when -- somebody described it once as a bowling ball sitting on top of a pencil, and those big tech stocks the bowling ball. dom chu, thank you very much all right, well, the market already taking its cue from this morning's economic data. despite a growing number of companies reporting layoffs amid

the downturn, jobless claims fell last week to their lowest level in five months but that wasn't maybe the only bad news for central banks we'll explain why it was bad news in a second personal consumer expenditure, a favorite inflation gauge for the fed, rose in the second quarter, up 7.3% year over year that is higher than the last two second quarter pce estimates, of course very backwards looking, but the number does matter helping us now to make sense of all of it is peter boockvar, cnbc contributor, and the jobless claims number, peter, came out at 190. 190,000. i'm not sure i can remember in 20 years it being below 200,000. you sent a note out, i e-mailed you back the number seems weird, because you're only going to get a jobless claims number if people are looking for work and are unable to find it. it just feels -- have we reached a maximum productivity point in the u.s. economy, because people are -- millions are just out of the workforce, maybe forever

>> well, i think that's the case, that we've seen, at best, flat gdp through the first three quarters of this year. at the same time, we still have pretty good hiring i think that the jobless claims figure is amazing in the face of the stories that we hear about companies at least trimming their workforce or limiting their hiring but other parts of the economy, where employers are holding on tight to their employees i mean, we've had the last couple of years where employers were desperate for workers and i think even today, in many different industries with many different companies, you still hear about labor shortages so if you are -- if you are lucky enough to have enough people to manage your business, you're going to be very reluctant to fire them and i think that that is being reflected in this still very subdued level of jobless claims. >> but, you know, here's where it's weird, okay and it depose to the fed, because they also -- it's not just inflation

they have got an employment mandate, as well the unemployment rate is at 3.5% so you can get up there and say, look at how strong the u.s. economy is the unemployment rate isn't super low. i've talked to hundreds of business owners big and small over the last year and a half. they can't find anybody, and yet, we're at 3.5% unemployment. it doesn't matchup it feels like the numbers are not accurately reflecting the on the ground situation that's happening with american businesses and i would challenge any american business watching this segment right now to tweet you or me and tell us if things are different, if we're wrong. >> well, that mid-3s unemployment rate reflects the tightness. and for sure, there's still people that probably have not come back. the participation rate, particularly, the 25 to 45-year-old, even though it's close to its prepandemic levels, it still has not gotten back to exactly that but i think that that level reflects that tightness. and i think the real question

from here is, to what extent do we see a slowdown in hiring, especially if the economy continues to slow, because, yeah, you want to get that extra worker, but if you see your business slowing, well, maybe you don't reach for it, but you're certainly going to still hold on tight to those that you have >> peter, on a totally different level, i don't want to put you on the spot, but i know you can handle it, because i've been tweeting about this. i was one of the guys talking about subprime, i was called a fearmongerer, all this other stuff. i'm not sure this is '07 and '08 again. in europe, it may be closer. we're starting to see some liquidity and banking issues happening. black rock threatening to turn off trading in london. the mortgage rate stopping there are counter-part risks european banks and u.s. banks, they are tied. it is a global financial system. what is, and maybe it's zero, give us a reason to be hopeful,

peter, the risk of the european contagion coming to our banking and financial systems? >> well, i think there are two things here. number one, i think part of this market dislocation has to do with this post financial crisis banking regulations. where banks have to hold much higher levels of capital and have then less balance sheet to make markets in a variety of different things so that creates these air pockets in markets the second part is more where the real problem is, on top of the liquidity issues is, central banks are losing control of interest rates that was clear in the uk guilt market and i do think that it's possible that it's coming to a theater near us in the u.s., where as the fed continues to shrink their balance sheet, as they still remain very aggressive with short-term interest rates, that there's market dislocations that quickly shift their approach >> i just feel like this is where we've been tough on powell and yellin lately.

i understand that, peter, but you've got to believe this okay they did not fully, i don't think, understand the implications of a bond market that moves this fast people don't understand the mechanics under the hood of the swaps market, all these bond market things that main street thinks about are the things that make the engine run. >> the best visual is powell, yellen, bernanke , all sitting n one big beach ball trying to keep it underwater, and the second they all start to get off, that ball will shoot right up that's interest rates. >> it's the same people in d.c. and the same people in the fed that were there in '07 and '08, most of them are still in charge it's hard to believe peter boockvar of bleakley financial, thank you very much meantime, stocks giving back all of yesterday's gains the dow and s&p on track for their seventh drop in eight days

first in three days for the nasdaq your next guest says markets like to remain in purgatory like this for some time let's welcome in ryan bellinger, founder and managing principle at calero advisers i'm not trying to be a downer on a thursday, but the s&p 500 is on pace for its third straight quarterly loss we have not seen that since the financial crisis so it's not brian sullivan's opinion. the market is voting right now that things aren't good. >> yeah, you're right. people are really getting a reminder here of what stock market volatility looks like we live in a range where in a once standard deviation environment, you'll get returns between negative 7 and 28% and that's a comfortable place to live, was now we're exploring the second standard deviation event, which happens 95% of all outcomes and that's a much wider range. and it's very uncomfortable. the challenge for this

environment, which was different than in '08, was the bond market and you just alluded to that with your last guest it's very difficult to live in a world where your fixed income portfolio is down 10 to 15%. so, we've been telling our investors, there's just nowhere to hide. you've got to grind this out and do the best you can with what you own. just make sure you know exactly what you own so there are no surprises. >> let's be optimistic because when things seem the worst, that's when markets can turn i actually had a conversation like this with my father today by the way, on the way to work, we talked on the phone hi, dad. love you thanks for watching. which is, maybe you want to -- start to dollar cost average into equities. you tell me. you're the adviser because if your timeline is 5 to 10 years out, as josh brown has pointed out many times, the s&p 500 almost always doubles off of a recession low within five years. so maybe if you're thinking long-term, it's scary, but you

want to buy low. >> and i'm with you. i agree with that. i think that's a great conversation to have we have those conversations with our clients, too if you have the ability to look out to some horizon that's three to five years out, you've got to be liking this opportunity no one's going to hit the bottom if they tell you that they can pick the bottom, they're just lying to you they have to be realistic and know that the game that you're playing is seven out of every ten years, you're going to make money. but in three of those years, out of the ten, you're going to lose money. and it's going to be painful and you've got to protect yourself and the worst thing you can do is sell out of all your stocks and try to hide under the mattress especially with raging inflation. >> yep disney, crowd strike, verizon. those are the three picks you brought for us we have time to dig into one which one? disney, crowd strike, verizon do you want to talk about right now? >> yeah, so the verizon play is a place to hang out. if we're going to go into a

recession, you can hang out and get the dividend you feel pretty safe there the cell phone bill is probably one of the last discretionary bills that a family is going to cut. and so we feel pretty safe in that environment it hasn't been a great stock for this year, but we just feel like it's a safe police to be while you ride out this storm. it's a -- we've been through quite a time period this year. so i think staying defensive makes a lot of sense >> i saw a bank of america survey a month ago and said that the cell phone bill was the last thing people wouldn't pay, even above a mortgage nobody will risk losing their cell phone very good for verizon. ryan, thank. really appreciate it >> thanks. >> ryan bellinger, calero advisers all right, on deck, from swoosh to swoon. nike's on pace for its worst year in nearly 30 years. kind of tired of saying that investors are looking to micron for clues about chip slowdown as well how are both companies handling very different and maybe very similar headwinds?

we'll get set to report those earnings on earnings exchange, but first, is the sell-off in stocks creating opportunities in the municipal bond market? we'll get some very specific ideas for you with a lot of tax benefits, coming up. and as we head to break, let's get one more check on the markets. the dow not on its low that was down 630, but the dow is down 520 right now. the nasdaq, though, it is off 3% only two nasdaq 100 stocks are higher astrazeneca and okto we're back right after this.

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all right, well, internally, we call this the heat map, although we should probably change the name today because it's decidedly cold. there's a lot of red on the screen, but that's not a good thing. that's heat, that's coolness, because only two stocks in the nasdaq 100 in the green we just told you about them, astrazeneca and okta on the downside is 88 other stocks if you look inside those, i know you can't read that. it's like you were a fly trying to watch tv at sears back in the day. apple is down 5% amc, the ape trade is down 10% amc itself down 7.

livian down 7. tesla down 77 there's your heat map. the dow is down more than 500 points let's try to find some opportunity as stock slides, bond yields are rising as the fed tightens, recession risk, all spooking investors but that market route may be creating opportunities in placing like municipal bonds, especially ones that might be a little bit more tax exempt let's talk about it and find you some opportunities joining us is jamie islin at newburgher berman. jamie, are you seeing an increase in interest in munis from your clients? >> absolutely. the yields have risen dramatically on the short end of the yield trade, yields are up about 275

basis points we think that's creating a really, really good entry point for investors. it's about the amount of yield you end up keeping >> we just talked about the risk of financial contagion we know everything is connected. banks are connected, pension funds. it's all one big global system how do you find bonds in areas, school districts, sewage, state, whatever it might be, that may be immune to any kind of economic downturn? >> these are, as you point out, brian, these are uncertain times and we're dealing with really volatile markets muni bond investing is about preservation of capital, and i think you have to look in uncertain times for the safest places one area that i think that makes a lot of sense is, if you look at bonds from a state like texas, there's no personal

income tax so you don't have the same in-state demand for those bonds. there's many high-quality credits from the state of texas. and particularly, you see a lot of school district issuance. those bonds on their own are typically rated in the aa category, and many are wrapped with a program called the permanent school fund, that makes them into aaa-rated bonds. that's a bulletproof very safe way to be involved in the market and because there's less in-state demand in texas, you might pick them up with an extra 20 or 30 basis points. >> what kind of a yield can you get and what kind of tax benefits are there >> right now in the short end of the curve, you can easily buy in one-two-year paper, you can buy yields around 3% that's a taxable equivalent of 5% for someone in the highest tax bracket. that produces about 80 basis points over the current two-year treasury we think that's a really, really good deal. now, if somebody wants to go down a little bit in credit

quality, as a higher risk appetite, you can buy the state of illinois's general obligation credit, which is an upgraded credit over the last couple of years at a yield of around 4.4% for one to two-year bonds. >> what's the capital risk >> i think it's quite low, because, you know, again, they have the full faith and credit and the taxing power of the issuer, and that credit has been moving in the right direction. it's now a high bbb-rated credit now. i think that's a really, really nice way to generate some extra yield on the short end of the curve. >> jamie, good stuff people are looking for any place to find some protection and maybe make a little vig on the side ja jamie, thank you very much still ahead, apple shares continue to fall and investors seem confused about what's going on. apple getting both a downgrade and an ura taypgdeod we'll dig in, ahead. - you're a cio in 2022. but you're ready. because you've got the next generation in global secure networking from comcast business. with fully integrated security solutions

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welcome back to "the exchange." sorry to say, another tough day for the equity markets today one of the worst years ever for stocks so far. nasdaq is down another 3%. it's off 359 points. the dow and s&p are holding up a little bit better, but a lot in the green. we told you, 98 of the nasdaq 100 stocks are lower apple is down 4% tesla is down 7% all 11 sectors are down with consumer discretionary the worst performer. and look at some of these movers worst up, kathy wood's flagship arc innovation etf, has top holdings at ginko, unity, all down around 7% so the arc innovation etf is down 6%. look at carmax, look at carvana, look at the carmakers here carmax is losing one quarter of

its value right now, almost. down carvana, down 23%. all of the big auto retailers, like pinskey and lithia, they're getting crushed. carmax posted one of its biggest earnings misses ever, coming in 43% below estimates. the ceo is blaming the quarter on inflationary pressures, lower consumer confidence. have you tried to buy a car lately prices are still high and rates are going up crypto also getting hit. coin base plunging after a stock with a sell rating and a $57 price target the firm says a challenging economic environment will pressure shares going forward, making now a good time to sell coin base down 7% since january. chainos saying he is still shorting coin base very critical of the company all right, from stocks to stockpiles, and let's talk oil and look ahead to next week. because opec and opec plus meet

again on wednesday and this meeting is likely to be more dramatic than the onesove the past two years it's because all reports suggest that russia is asking for a huge production cut from the group, maybe up to a million barrels a day. you'll remember, opec trimmed output by a tiny 100,000 barrels the last meeting but the price of oil continues to drop as the white house keeps selling about a million barrels per day from america's strategic petroleum reserve. and i can tell you that from my reporting, certain opec members, and you can probably guess who they are, believe that is a type of market manipulation and it may need to be countered by action from the group. you can debate it all you want, argue about it all you want, but that's what they believe the question now is whether opec even has the ability to actually cut production, because many nations have been running below their quotas and likely want to keep up the same level of production that they have now. anyway, a lot of questions heading into next week's opec meeting. that meeting wednesday, of course

i'll be covering it for you all day right here on cnbc let's get a news update right now and check out florida. tyler mathisen is here with an update >> thank you very much, brian. here is what's happening at this hour a former army major and his wife have been charged with plotting to give medical information of u.s. military personnel to the russian government major jamie lee henry was stationed at ft. bragg, his wife is at johns hopkins hospital in baltimore. prosecutors allege that the couple believed that they were giving to a russian official who was actually an fbi agent. a russian oligarch, oleg deripaska, has been charged with violating u.s. sanctions against him. prosecutors alleged three women helped him sell a music studio in california and arranged travel for one of them to give birth to his child in the united states and virginia "ginny" thomas, wife of clarence thomas, has gone before the house committee.

the panel has been trying to determine her role in efforts to help former president trump overturn his election defeat >> thought we would have something on florida there tyler, my apologies for that what we call a bad toss. florida seems like kind of a big news event all right, coming up, a pair of companies said to report after the bell today nike, the second worst stock of the year what can they tell us about the state of the market and inflation that is next in earnings exchange. we head to break told you about the heat map. showed you the nasdaq 100. it's looking just as bad for the dow. in fact, we've got boeing, apple, some of the worst names there. anything consumer related is taking a big hit right now the dow down more than 500 points the nasdaq off more than 3%. we're back right after this.

welcome back, everybody. we're going to step out of the macro markets for a minute and go micro and micron into earnings exchange. today, we have the action on the aforementioned micron and nike let's start with nike first.

the street will be watching for any impact on commentary concerning currency headwinds as well as consumer demand in europe and china courtney reagan has the story. lee munson has the trade courtney, let us start with you. i mean, the stock's gotten crushed. how is the outlook >> brian, obviously, nike is a very, very strong brand the world over, but not immune from macro economic pressures we're really going to want to hear a lot of details about how nike, frankly, is dealing with the impact of inflation on running its business and what that means for consumers that are faced with higher costs of goods that they have to buy. and what that means for what they're willing to buy with their discretionary dollars. the strong dollar is also something that's really in focus in the analyst and investor community. only about a third of nike's revenues come from the united states so from a dollar-denominated area and everything else has to have

this fx translation. and so we're really concerned about what that means for nike this quarter inventory, of course, a big focus for retailers across the board. we know their direct-to-consumer business is getting stronger, but what about their wholesale business the salethrough of nike's shoes and other products at other retailers that are having to discount a lot of other goods. what does that mean for sales of nike so there are so many things that we need to think about here, brian, for this quarter, but it's always so informative went we hear from nike, because they give us this global perspective on business and on the global consumer >> and we'll see those numbers after bell lee munson, what's your trade on nike at some point, the stock has to stop going down. it's not going to zero >> probably. come on, nike is a great brand >> it's not going to zero. >> no, come on, i've been buying air jordans since 1945, 1945 people need these because they work out and need these. when you look at a two-year chart, go back to that chart

back in 2020, it's back to the scene of the crime, as a friend of mine likes to say, where we're right at the level where it broke out, you know, the summer of 2020, after we knew that we weren't going to like all die from covid but here's the thing if you're buying it today, you've got to buy it not as a trade, you've got to buy it more as an intermediate to longer term hold. i think it would be fine to buy it today i would like to see how earnings come out, but you just buy it -- if you want to have a position in nike, buy half tomorrow, after you hear the call and dollar cost average in over the next few months, but this is a longer term hold you're getting the opportunity to go and buy the worst from first. it's like dogs of the dow. you're buying the worst performer in the dow, thinking that you're going to mean revert if you love bottom fishing and you want to buy a good growth company that's not going to go out of business, take your shot now. there's a lot worse companies that you could buy >> we've got one more coming up.

courtney, thank you very much. i know courtney has those earnings tonight much more of courtney all through the day. next up, is micron -- the stock is down 46% year-to-date, making nike look pretty good, right? the entire semiconductor industry tries to regain its footing. and a weakening consumer christina joining us now with that story rough year for micron. >> especially because they preannounced in august and it was a fnegative prenoum now the big question is, maybe it wasn't negative enough. there are three themes that we're going to be looking for within this earnings report. the first one being the price of memory chip. we've seen that actually decline for quite some time. so will that plunge continue, so the duration of that fmemory price plunge the second point is an inventory correction we've seen it with pc and smartphone sales and now we're starting to see these signs within the data center, auto, as well as industrial last but not least, we already had the company in august say

they're going to reduce capex meaningfully, but will they continue to reduce capex, at the same time when their planning on spending billions of dollars on building fabs in the united states, how are they going to do this simultaneously? can they keep their free cash flow or i guess the consensus, i've read a few reports that thinks that full-year free cash flow will be negative. these are all little points that we'll be paying attention to once the earnings come out and the call is at 4:30. >> trying to look at some of the valuation metrics on the stocks. >> the analyst estimates were all over from positive to negative nobody knows what's going on that's a good enough sign. >> they don't know they know nothing! if you have -- lee, you're still there. hi, lee. if you have all of these analysts that are wildly all over the place these are all smart people, right? they're cfas, they all went to duke the business school. and they can't figure it out, that's a warning ign >> you only have one job

fuqua. that's my world starting word every day. >> i don't want to own this stock, management already came out a couple of months ago and they said, we've got problems. here's the thing, how you have to look at it going forward. they make this special type -- and i love micron. come on, they're a u.s.-based company, they're out in boisy. we want to be cheering for the home team. but they make this particular type of flash memory that they use in iphones and smartphones and there's real problems about where that growth is going forward. unlike nike, this company has problems, management keeps trying to call wall street and saying, it's worse than we think. and then comes to find out, it's worse than even they think it's going to be so if you have to trade this stock because there's a gun to your head and it's raining outside in florida, and you can't get to a casino, i would rather waste money, throw it down a pie hole and buy some

put options you're going to lose, or do like some sort of ridiculous degenerate gambler short scramble where you buy a put, buy a call, where nobody knows what's going to happen, but there will be fireworks if some direction even better, why not we say that we did that and then don't >> two points, though. don't you think the stock is pretty cheap right now and the second is a long-term hold, forget the storage market, we are going to be at the forefront when it comes to 5g and ai, which a lot of companies have yet to adopt, and micron could benefit. >> certainly, but here's the thing. one of my good friends was a retired portfolio manager and he always tells me, you buy semis when they're banging the trash cans and you can buy them at half to 0.8 book value we're still at 1.1 book value. when you can buy micron for 80 cents of what you could do for selling all the equipment, then i'm a buyer. so my answer is, i do believe

that, but i think it's going to get worse. whereas nike, i might sit in it getting worse, but you can get so hurt with semiconductors. wait until it's so much worse than we think today. i think there's still downside just be patient. >> hard to be patient when you're down that much. but lee, it's a very good point! it's a very good point christina, always good points. thank you. >> thank you >> thank you >> still ahead, renewable energy getting hit hard today solar down big you've got higher rates. by the way, trouble getting permits for big new solar facilities, hitting that market hard sun run, down 10% right now. we're back right after this.

all right. solar stocks getting dragged down to the broader sell-off today, officially wiping out all the gains they saw following the passage of the inflation reduction act last month pippa stevens tracking this

lower for us >> it's a really a fall from grace for the solar stocks after so much enthusiasm around the inflation reduction act, if we take a look at this chart, you can see when the upward momentum began that was the end of july when senators schumer and m manchin announced their agreement, it led to investors scooping up shares of renewable energy stocks broadly. the solar fund topped $91 many mid-august, but with today's decline, it's now down 20% since. but josh shaver, ceo at elek "tron" capital manners said the sell-off has nothing to do with industry concerns. the weakness is all about macro variables, including rising rates. now, drilling down on specific names, performance has been varied panel manufacturers maxon solar has more than doubled since the end of july, with first solar adding more than 70% names like sunpower, snowva, and

end phase also holding their gains, but on the flip side, others both down sharply you've always got to look at what's in the fund pause the topline number doesn't always say it all. >> and i want to be clear on this, okay so the manchin permitting bill that he agreed to. it got killed. and there were people out there, bernie sanders was like, good, forget about fossil fuels. it's not just about foz ssil fuels. this was al going to be good for solar and electricity lines that we immediate to build out for renewables >> and it's often missing from this conversation. you need new transmission lines. in new york city, there's not a big solar farm or wind farm. those are typically in the middle of the country and we need transmission lines to carry power to the big city. but it's basically possible to get any big infrastructure package built. so this manchin deal, that was supposed to fix some of that you could declare eminent domain, things like that

they could ease along the process. >> who's going to invest $1 billion into a big solar farm if they're not sure they can put the power lines to the homes that will pay for the solar farm anyway, quickly, sun run >> the stock is falling 10% today. this comes after two noted short sellers took aim at the company yesterday. take a listen. >> sun run works for us when investors become more risk averse so you can tie it directly to rates. one issue with sun run is when they tell investors that they have $4.5 billion of net earnings assets, there are several assumptions they use that are ridiculous. >> they have tax issues and a myriad of other things but because it's seen as esg, because it's perceived, that's the variant perception that's where you can make a lot of money on the short side, when everybody believes this, but the

reality is this. adding that it's the aluminum siding of the 21st century and nothing but a roofing company. they have said that those claims are flat-out wrong >> aluminum is one of the most expensive things to produce, so ironically, if electricity prices go up, it's more expensive to make solar panels, which makes electricity prices go down. who knows? pippa stevens, thank you still ahead, tech taking it on the chin. what isn't today apple down for a second straight day and e thstreet is split, literally, on what iphone demand may look like. we're back after this. ♪ ♪ all-electric with room for up to seven. it's the suv electric has been waiting for.

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all right. shares of apple extending yesterday's loss on reports that we'll be scrapping planned iphone production increases. but today analysts are divided, literally. apple got an upgrade from rosenblatt, but got a downgrade from bank of america and both notes cite the same thing, you, the consumer steve cocevak, what the heck is going on >> apple investors would be forgiven for having whiplash

there are dueling narratives on the street first up, we had bank of america downgrading apple, saying demand will falter. take a listen to b of a's mohan about that downgrade >> data for apple which grew 5% in the june quarter is declining 2% in the september quarter and the month-on-month trajectory is getting worse. >> that's his evidence that consumer spending is slowing down but rosenblatt with the opposite take, saying its survey data shows people want to buy the new iphones no matter what here's what the call from barton crockett on "squawk box" today >> we're in an environment where these devices are more important to people than ever before they're willing to pay more for them, reflecting the importance and reflect apple's ability to come up with features that people like. >> now, brian, we know where the market stands amid all of this confusion. anticipate was down 5% today on top of that 1% drop we saw

yesterday. and it's adding fuel to the fire from that bloomberg report that came out yesterday, saying that apple was cutting extra iphone production as that bones demand never materialized still, most on the street pushing back on the narrative saying, unit sales will be flat year over year, but the strong sales of the more expensive modd offset any weakness. and that $900 14 plus is launching next week. >> and we'll find out. steve, thank you very much so that is the fundamental side but what about the charting, the technicals let's bring in tony zhang with options play feels like options action, but it is only thursday, not friday. good to see you. do the charts show any support for apple anywhere. >> charts slabsolutely do show quite a bit of support and when we think about the market, apple is the market. but the charts and fundamentals

both tell a different story because if we look at the charts here, if you look being at chart of apple over the last two years, i think the first major level of support that we can go back to is the 140 level this goes back to july of 2021 basically all investors passed a july of 2021 are at either under water or just at break even. below that, i think 130, which is the june lows, smaller level of support, will certainly be another port onimportant one tht investors might be looking at those specific levels to pick up more shares. but if it does break below 130, we're headed down to the low 100s in my opinion >> low 100s? >> yeah, that's right. and there is both a technical and fundamental case for that as well i think if you look at the bank of america report yesterday, we're looking at eps to be

somewhere between 575 to $6. right now market consensus is well above $6 for eps. i think given the news report from yesterday, that will likely come down. even if you take into account consensus estimate, we're still trading at 22 times next year's earnings for apple we're expecting only 5% revenue group and 7% eps growth the next year that is a 37% premium relative to what the s&p is currently trading at, about 16 times next year's earnings. so if you apply even a significant multiple above where the market is trading, that still gets us into the low 100s here in terms of valvations. whether you are concerns about demand destruction, macro headwinds, i think yesterday's news shows us that apple is not immune to that and i think that is where you have both a technical case for further down side in my opinion at least down to that 130 level, but if you look at the fundamentals, there could be further down side in my

opinion. >> macro market view >> yeah, so if you see in the s&p we tried to rally here off of that 3600, 3700 range that we've been trading in. the fact that we're now breaking below that trading session i think from my perspective it clearly points to one direction that we're heading lower if you look at apple, relative strength of apple is what is holding the market up, but that is starting to show some cracks and i think that is where the macro is heading lower >> tony zhang, important dialogue thank you. and still ahead, it is another wild day for wall street why are we seeing such violent moves? and as we head to break, a look at some of the retail stocks xrt, it is down 5% car max we told you was down 23%. almost every retailer is getting hit right now. some of them really hard

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market selloff animation i think is appropriate right now nasdaq down 3.5%, off nearly 400 points that is the session low. want to get to one more thing and we had a monster rally yesterday, but now monster selloff today. so what is going on? here is somebody who probably knows. he is chief market strategist at miller good to see you in the daylight hours, matt. what is going on with the volatility stock market is acting like we're going to have a massive i don't want to say crash, but certainly economic and earnings slowdown, interest rates, currencies, it is a toxic brew >> yeah, [ inaudible ] we've

seen the market very tollvolatiy but you look at so many global currencies [ inaudible ]. >> may,hey, matt, we're having e audio issues here is what i want to do. let's do a phone interview, matt, can you hear me? you were having some audio issues hang up your zoom, we'll calling you, i'll ad lib for -- we're going to go? okay i wanted to get matt back on the thing. okay, we'll get you back on tomorrow always a must read on the volatility there before we go to "power lunch," let's go through all the market

stuff because why not? let's go through overall, bring up the macro equity markets. we're seeing one of the biggest drops not of the year, but certainly of the recent weeks and months we're seeing the dow industrial average it is down 2.14% 600 points it is on its low of the session. the naz sdaq down 400, its low the session. ten year yield, moving up a little bit at 3.76%, just throw the vix up, i'd appreciate it, the vix up 8%. when the market washes out, when the market washes out, you want to see a few things. 10 to 1 down side volume, vix at new highs for the session over 33, okay, and pretty of the breadth of the market like we talked about being ms.er er bl. we're closing in there you go, the vix at 33, markets on lows of the session could be a wild last couple hours of the market. we'll see you tomorrow on "the

exchange." "power lunch" begins right now and selloff on wall street, stocks are tumbling, nasdaq getting the worst of it. finding places to hide is becoming more challenging. and our market experts will tell you where they are finding safety such as it is, what they are buying and how much more selling may be ahead but first a quick check on the markets. >> stocks are at session lows giving up all of yesterday's gains. you can see the dow jones industrials down more than 2%, 6 642 points s&p s. off 2.75. and nasdaq losing 404 points and the stock market driven by big swings in the bond market. yields climbing again, the ten year yield about 3.7%. and there