the best resume lineups in the industry this stock actually on a five-year movement traded at a 44% premium and now a 10% discount. >> got to leave it there thank you. "fast money" begins right now. >> thank you right now, hawkish fed induced fade central bankers tell the markets to get ready if you don't want to fight the fed do you want to stay away from stocks? apple a worst performing stock in the dow today close down to 5% how bad is a bruised and battered apple for the market? two big earnings after the bell. nike and micron. i'm melissa lee. we are live at the nasdaq market

site we start off tonight with a double dose of hawk talk from the fed. a couple of u.s. central bankers looking to set the record straight for here. james bullard saying the committee expects to make rate hikes this year and the market seems to recognize that. cleveland fed president said today that real interest rates have to be positive sometime before the bank stops hiking the s&p and nasdaq giving back yesterday's gains. the dow dropping 450 points. the s&p down 25% from the all-time high. nasdaq leading the losses 1% from the lows of the year. apple erasing almost $120 billion from the market cap today alone. we'll dive into more on apple later but does it suggest

there's more pain to come? >> listening to the fed and heard a couple things to me should be alarming if you expect the fed to cave like every other central bank in the world is we have cpi numbers north of 8% and the last numbers we got is scary to think about if you qualify that with we want real rates north of the cpi or whatever you want to say is troubling. we need to see the unemployment level get to 4.5%. real talk about levels and nowhere close. a jobless claims number this morning, the job market isn't showing any softening and the job market will continue to be tight. we have work ahead of us listening to the fed yesterday when equities as we say all the time won't go higher until there's relief from interest

rates and where the terminal rate and maybe where long rates are. but the dollar what was yesterday's rally all about? day and a half of a rally in the bond market with the sugar high coming from central banks. it is not real i think we'll talk about this later in the show. >> temporary intervention? >> if you trade day-to-day by the fed governors i think it's ludicrous and going into a period to hear from companies giving us guidance and to take them at face value probably the best bet to figure where the stocks direction is going. day-to-day, listen, yesterday i didn't think that was a great rally. but to kind of have it all reversed and the s&p close at a new cycle low is some bad stuff and caused by a fed governor

saying something, i look at the guys talked about this neil kashkari, this was the biggest dove on the planet and every other day he is talking about the fed can't stop until this why are we listening to them why are the markets moving trillions a day based on this? again i mean we kind of know that they stay the course and then not and get dovish but to trade day-to-day is insane. >> i agree with dan. two days ago if i had said to you master will be super hawkish. it would not be a surprise and yet yesterday's activity parts reversed it is odd at the same thing. happening in the uk is opposite. people up in arm there is. the fed can't do that and this

you have to find a tightening scheme that isn't going to piss everybody off. i don't think that's possible. people are pissed at the fed i would be -- i would be if i were the fed's shoes i wouldn't listen to that because really just started they got to see it through a little bit if no other reason than credibility even if they go too far so i think we'll continue to see that we'll get to earnings. the market is trading down on the same news again and again. hawk down. hawk down. we'll see earnings and probably guide lower if i guided at all. >> 48 hours ago i said we should have a mind numbing rally in a bear market. i looked like a genius yesterday and today i look like my normal self once again. trying to be tactical for

opportunities and today is miss everible i thought the rally would happen today but tim hit the nail on the head if we go the way of the bank of england think again. >> really? >> absolutely! if you think we are going to pivot -- think again, people only thing that's working against them is the market i don't think that's in the per view s&p could trade to 3,000 and they wouldn't move the pivot comes in the credit markets and we are not there yet. >> we recognize that the fed is the one pushing the central banks around but the bank of japan focusing on yield curve targeting these are not solutions. think about where we have in the biggest markets in the world and the turbulence to see that's why

we are all pessimistic here. good news in the last couple days is three sessions and the fed fund futures topped and come down the fed fund few which you shalls expectations of the market despite the comments from the fed has come down probably 35 basis points. the dollar down 2.5% they are the most important to settle in and give some ground in the case of the dlar. we have had some relief. we had three days of constructive action there. >> isn't the move mainly the pound stabilizing? 12% of the dollar index. how long do you believe that keeps up because based on what everybody else is doing the dollar is relatively stronger. what you saw were some ing

ingredients. most crowded trade in the world. you start to see rebound in the pound. >> the point is if you think about corporate earnings again this is a huge hit thinking about multinationals a favorite consumer product or like they sell 30, 40, 50% of the stuff from overseas and this is a huge number and the volatility and the lack of visibility i guess going forward is going to be the thing to weigh on the earnings. look i think the broad markets are going low every. talking about apple and tesla. two big come ponents but i thin that's probably more like karen. some interesting values propping up and have to maybe dollar cost average and think about the price with a full position on. if your stocks down 50% from the

highs and the valuations near troughs and think the dollar strength is at the max versus what you can see this is how to trade or invest in a market like this than the insane headlines week to week. >> there are signs of dysfunction. ron bianca, what are you seeing? >> what happened in the uk yesterday? if you go with the announcement they said there's a financial stability concern. to put it in alarming terms, somebody was ready to fail and had to force the price of guilds, the government bond, much higher so the mark to market not create the problems remember the bond market is always bought with leverage. when the prices fall as much as we have seen this year and particularly the last week or two in the uk there is stress in

markets and there is in the bond market in the uk. >> uk is a real unique case in terms of the declines seen in that bond market in a short amount of time when you say somebody could have failed or somebody might be on the brink, intervention is only a certain amount of time is there still a chance that that instability rears the ugly head is there a transmission mechanism to here? >> yeah. i think what it is -- you are right. call it a stay of execution. that's yesterday we haven't solved the problem. the problem is rising rates. financial firms that own it with level roonlg pension plans use leverage, too. they have a lot of problems in terms of meeting collateral. we are not over the problem. what does get us orr the

problem? sibs that inflation is coming down or the trust prime minister of the uk is going to back off the tax cuts and extra borrowing which is rocking the market. neither one is happening she wants to move forward with the tax cuts. >> we have been talking about bond market volatility for 18 months you are actually now mentioning it in earnest. did something fundamentally change over the last 48 hours? >> something might have. what you saw with the bank of england is a tangible sign that's real dysfunction in the market i suspected that the market had -- bond market had that dysfunction and not going away but what really kicked it off is the surging dollar if that is peaking and backing

off that would be a big sigh of relief but if the dollar continues to surge it creates more havoc because the answer to a surging dollar is much higher interest rates and one thing they can't afford to have right now. >> do you think any of this is part of the fed tightening the qt >> yes let's go back a week ago chairman of the federal reserve said all rates should be positive they should be above -- real rates should be positive above the inflation rate and then said what inflation rate? core cpe estimated to be at 4.8% he wants all rates in the upper 4s so i think what markets saw out of his press conference is he thinks rates have to go a lot

higher and saw the affect in bond markets around the world. all bond markets trade on spreads. if the u.s. market is up it drags everybody else if that causes the dollar to surge the only way to stop the currency from crumbling is to offer a high interest rate to put you in stress. >> i was meeting the sales from the balance sheet, not the fed funds rate in terms of technicals. >> the fed is not a seller in the marketplace right now. >> right. >> what they're doing is letting bonds mature and then buying less and letting the balance sheet reduce the bank of england would be a seller which they reversed yesterday. so but nevertheless that is a bunch of bonds, you know, $90

billion of bonds a month that somebody's going to have to buy that the fed used to buy so there's a bigger crowding out with the qt and not selling we have to find a $90 billion a month buyer. >> great to speak with you thank you. >> thank you. tim, what do you think >> when jim says he sees liquidity issues worsening that's what we haven't southeastern that will deteriorate around credit they were 4.10 a month ago but again i'll just reiterate a couple things. interest rates about 15 months ago began to rise. we were at 14 bips on the 2-year note in june 2021. we know where they are now over 4%. the dollar move 28% didn't just

happen there's not a prescription to say 15 months and you are good some moves are not recent and long in the tooth and markets tend to price things in in advance. if the dollar rallies more something truly is broken and would be a flight to quality. >> coming up, nike and micron on the move plus more pain for apple dropping nearly 5% how are options traders playing the move we'll find out when "fast money" returns.

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welcome back to "fast money. nike shares dropping despite beating estimates but that following the hitting a new 52-week low today in the session. sarah eisen has the latest sara >> paying tribute to serena williams talked up the company innovations and the sports highlights like the world cup

but what investors want to hear is guidance coming later in the call the numbers came in slightly better hahn expected but some details beneath the headlines may be concerning to investors nike did see growth in north america, asia and in europe and also less bad growth in china than what was expected sales declined 13% without the currency hit digital sales are still growing double digits. direct to consumer up 14%. lowlights are margins are weaker and cited increased markdowns. inventories up 44% there's just a lot of product flooding in to especially the north american market from the ports. the supply chain is thawing but creating a bit of a pileup and

had to discount that merchandise to get rid of the back seasons hence the increased promotions and could be helping north american sales but weighing on profitability. is china improving how long will it take to clear all of this inventory. 44% is a big number. what is the forecast given the pressures and the stronger dollar the dollar is really slicing into sales overall sales would have been up 10% for nike european sales vanished because of the strong dollar up 1%. and a question about demand. the brand momentum appears good but is nike seeing signs of a slowdown some bearish reasons i laid out.

melissa? >> thank you karen, i wonder how you think about inventory with the holiday season upon us you might buy for christmas at the end of the year with the markdowns to buy >> right sounded like in the quarter went through a lot of inventory and ended with 115 days of inventory. higher than the street expected. it would go to the point of there's going to be more sales and i view this as a temporary issue for nike but they still trade at a very premium multiple why they deserve it but in this market not getting as big a premium multiple and i would wait. >> you own it? >> yeah. not so premium of a multiple anymore. if you look out to '24 and might

be unfair but a price to earnings growth -- i wish i was bearish but it's hard when the "e" and pe on nike is consistent isn't the worse from china over and the worse from the dollar we have seen a lot and endured a lot of pain. i wish i went flat on this name months ago nothing they said today that we were surprised. >> have we seen the worst with s consumer demand? >> no. it's startling for nike and this is something that i think is in the price. >> let's get to micron

sharing after a mixed report card kristina partsinevelos is going through the report. >> despite the revenue miss shares did pair back and then positive now you can see down again about 1% investors must seem to like how much the company plans to cut back on costs. cutting spending by 50% in fiscal 2023 to $8 billion and could have an impact on equipment makers customering all fell year over year here's the ceo on the call d rickie fowler ram is a specific chip. >> we are modeling in 2023 of d-ram supply to present the lowest ever industry supply growth. >> because of that weakness the

company plans to reduce certain areas to lower inventory lastly the company announced a second location or plan to announce it. but don't expect them to all come online at once. they plan to build them out in stages depending on demand growth >> thank you kristina partsinevelos guy? >> 42 is a low in the summer of 2020 and sold off. we do a round trip i do tell you what concerns me a little bit you look at operating margins 25%. last year 37.1% why margins are contracting. not a good quarter the stock sold off from 99 or so valuation you can't trade this on valuation never really adds up but 42.5, 43 level makes sense. >> guy talked about the rally of

last year and massive moves and when names like this lack visibility and we really just don't know how it shakes out with the spending on fabs this stock as it overshot it is likely to do so to the downside also to me i don't find it nearly as interesting. i find that far more interesting because the brand and the valuation are defensible and rather play 23 times for nike than 7 times for micron down 50%. >> i look at semiconductors and we talk about this cyclicality of the space semis made new relative lows to the s&p today. this was leadership we followed for a long time and today that's concerning i don't think you chase it. this is next - >> apple falling far from the

tree the tech titan posting another day of steep losses. how are options traders dealing with the move? tesla's delivery numbers and next ai day on deck. also any news about that weird robot thing? you're watching "fast money" live from esmaetth in rk site in times square we're back right after this. i'm dead! [screams] all these old rules are made up. so why not make up something better? ♪ a bunch of dead guys made up work, way back when. ♪ ♪ it's our turn now we'll make it up again. ♪ ♪ we'll build freelance teams with more agility. ♪ ♪ the old way of working is deader than me. ♪ ♪ we'll scale up, and we'll scale down ♪

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welcome back apple shares hammered today. neutral from buy slashing the price target citing weaker demand. options market a whale is

betting nearly $6 million that they could tumble from here. mike >> yeah. so apple which is always one of the busiest single stock options traded 1.5 times that's the second day in a row that we saw that unusual activity in the name over 2 million contracts overall. there's big bets made, several over 20,000 puts i'll talk about the november 120s 20,000 of those purchased. more than $5 million premium outlay that doesn't actually become profitable until apple falls 17.5% but as i said there were quite a few big institutional prints in the 20,000 contract area some of those on closer strikes that expire october 28. >> what is your take, dan? >> i look at the dates and the company's expected to report the

last week of october weeklies in the october 28 and might be a hedge against a long position and then the other ones give you room. i think, tim, 120 on it before it started to go lower into the late spring and you say to yourself i don't know how this market makes new lows before going to 130 to me i think it makes sense given the trepidation about production and consumer demand and supply chains. the list goes on and on. >> the bloomberg yesterday said they are scaling back. downgrade today. you are saying we have yet to haefr from apple. >> iphone production will not increase things aren't so great and what's interesting of the b of a

nort note is bringing in the street they cut it by 7%. they're still putting a 27 time forward multiple on the stock. if you put the 580 and 20 multiple on it and no insult $115 stock i love apple i'm not gunning for this but 129 intraday it's 142 on the close. from the highs on tuesday this stock now is down 9% in essentially 2 sessions and a little bit so that is something marks need to attention to. >> in the camp, guy -- >> i went to camp. >> hackly? >> no. >> math camp if you are in the camp that the markets move significantly lower, 3200 area, apple has to

crack. >> yeah. we have seen it a couple times the market is crushed. apple hangs in there under that scenario apple goes to tim's levels. everybody loves apple. i'm a hater. >> why are you >> i'm not sometime it is obvious. >> what year is that ipad? >> '08. >> no. >> not in the upgrade cycle. mid single revenue growth. you have back out the cash i get it who knows if that's a good thing or not i think it should trade lower. >> it is not cheap but it has a premium multiple deserves it. we talked about the services evolution and that deserves a different multiple you know i think -- i'm not -- i'm long

it could trade down. one thing that i don't love of the analyst community. 37 out of 50 with buys ten neutral. two sells. that's a lot of downgrades yet to come. >> it is relative compared to the coverage universe. >> i don't understand what you say. >> if an analyst covers hardware stocks, they have to have buys, sells and holds relative to each other. >> not just on their own. >> yeah. >> i don't know they are relative to but in that camp they could downgrade we'll see it this week right? >> absolutely. absolutely. >> we could see more of it >> yeah. >> i'm long and staying long i'm in tim's camp. not guy's camp. >> my camp was fun and mean people in the camp.

>> i like math camp. >> riveting. >> tune in to the full show tomorrow 5:30 eastern time tesla's ai day on deck and may take a backseat to a robot details next another look at markets after the sell-off today what is top of mind for lalistors navigating the votity the answers when we return good luck. td ameritrade, this is anna. hi anna, this position is all over the place, help! hey professor, subscriptions are down but that's only an estimated 15% of their valuation. do you think the market is overreacting? how'd you know that? the company profile tool, in thinkorswim®. yes, i love you!! please ignore that. td ameritrade. award-winning customer service that has your back.

welcome back tesla hit hard in the sell-off shares down 7% ahead of the ai day tomorrow and gearing up for deliveries phil lebeau has what to expect will we see a dancing robot? or somebody dressed up >> i have a tease video for you. let's start off before ai day what's expected this weekend they haven't set a date when to report the q3 deliveries most expect it sunday. second day of the next quarter after a quarter ends 364,000 vehicles delivered is the consensus.

the majority model y with a ramp up in production in berlin and texas and the model 3 expected to come in 140,000 by the way this would be the biggest quarter ever in deliveries for tesla annual delivery estimate close to 1.45 million. they have delivered just over 565,000 so far that was the first half. and then add on the third quarter. shares of tesla and there's stories written how much is because it's a core holding for funds and therefore it is moving with the market. keep in mind they are ramping up production in texas and germany. looking at shares of tesla ai day is tomorrow night out in

california that's where musk will be or starting at 5:00 p.m. california time what is expected to be discussed? very technical discussion. and part of what's expected to be discussing is the progress on the d-1 chip and the dohyo super computer this is as much about recruiting talent as an update on tesla incorporating art firm intelligence you can't live without it. we brought in the guy in the morph suit to talk about the progress with the human identify robot. let's hope we have something better than -- here it is. your favorite. >> your favorite >> i have it on loop on my phone. >> this is an actual person dressed up as a robot which they

got skewered for maybe they will have a real robot. are you hearing about the increase cost to a germany ramp? >> i have heard that discussion out there. it will be curious to see what they have to say look, that's the concern for tesla and the industries that have plants over in germany. that they are going to be facing higher costs so for tesla that's going to be one of the challenges asthey expand that production there. >> thank you. >> you bet. i think i'll go to the bear. >> who first >> why are you looking at me >> on this one >> yeah. >> listen. it's a big fugazzi the growth is outside the u.s. we know that the chinese demand for these things is probably not

particularly great especially with tons of domestic competition now. the list goes on and on. i'm done talking about it. how's that in this market it's a joke. >> you left out you don't like elon musk. >> he is a liar. going back and forth and it is the misdirection ai day on a friday night what is the garbage to come out of that thing and the true believers buy into it. it's a cult stock and every market like this ends with it being unwind. >> it's a segment to be in including the legacy automakers? >> it is not a cult. it is a car company. why isn't it slammed like other

car makers >> an edge that they do not? >> people have to buy one. at the end of the day people downgrade car companies right and left talk about the mainstream car, the car for the americas, never been affordable. not that i'll leave the editorials and kind of agree with dan i think the valuation makes zero sense. this is a market proxy that didn't make the june low look at the autos today that got destroyed. what's keeping investors up at night hot off the presses. editor in chief will join us and we celebrate the teammates and contributors here's a associate producer. >> i'm a first generation mexican american the reason i am where i am today

is the sacrifices my parents made to move to this country for a better future. it is the sacrifices that give me the drive my advice is to give it all you've got take a chance on yourself first.

i felt the fed was late. i would be like a squirrel i like putting a few nuts away because you never know when you will need them we didn't do that. covid delayed that ukrainian-russian war delayed that there are reasons the fed didn't act. i understand and accept it but now they have to move aggressively they will be less concerned whether we tip in a mild recession than taming inflation and if they don't creates the havoc. >> that was james gorman saying the fed is behind the curve. watch the full interview at the top of the hour. what is worrying investors

most inflation, recession and rising rates top the list caleb, good to see you again lack back to "fast." i want to start with the $10,000 question because i think that really shows what people are thinking right now what would you do with an extra $10,000 in cash? >> wec have been asking that question our readers like to get into the action but they say they put it in the bank. usually looking to buy the dip >> promiscuous. >> yes they are scared. they don't know what else to do but sit on cash. i would think they were saying buy crypto and meme funds and now cash. >> right now and especially over a few weeks and fielding a

survey until yesterday amp most feel like the market has further to fall with 5 to 10% at least to fall over 6 months. we talked about this potentially a contrarian indicator sometimes it is. the things that they are searching for got our attention. >> what are they worried about most >> losing the portfolio and further losses and the hydra of inflation and what's going on with recession fears one at a time are scary and put them together and the hawkish talk from the fed. that said they're always readers looking for opportunities. looking to put money to work. >> are you seeing them change the look the of the portfolio?

>> yeah. we ask them for the top stocks and remain consistent and still are. the big names. apples, amazons, microsoft topping the list seen some oil in the last few months but they are consistent and asking how to buy treasury bonds, best cd rates and then what is a double bottom that's a big question right now. is this a double bottom? we won't know until we know. >> putting $10,000 in cash, so many folks they have never invested for so many people 4% cash is once in a lifetime for these people. >> a lot of them would sign up for it and don't want to do anything it's a choice that they make which i find interesting because

they look for opportunity. they're not looking for opportunity in the stock market. >> what you just talked about surprises you. can you speak to that? it basically means that something changed over 15 years. >> they are do-it-yourselfers. we were looking at anxiety in 2007 and 2008. but this is sort of not a fear of the market collapsing but i don't want to go near it and haven't seen that reaction since starting this survey back two and a half years ago. >> thank you. >> thank you. do you use this as a contrarian >> i love his work and when he comes on it is interesting. think about retail some have advisers

ones that don't got banged in spacs and nfts and cryptos may not come back. nike down about 10% right now. stick around ♪ ♪ wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here! what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations, like real time cgi. okay... yeah... oh. don't worry i got it! become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq striving to reach the ultimate goal of zero poverty takes more than everyone's hopes and dreams. at citi, it takes a financial commitment to companies who empower people to lift themselves up. it takes funding and building on our know-how to help communities grow.

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what a decline in shares of nike afterhours. down 10% the company saying inventories in north america grew 65%. quantifying the effect saying a $4.9 billion hit to full year revenue. down 11% right now what do you make of this >> that inventory. they talked about the gross margin continuing to decline 300 to 450 basis points is a lot. although this reaction is pretty huge pretty huge. i would let it shake out more. we'll see downgrades and then might be your time to -- >> might be. not right now. looking at the stock gone back to april 2019 levels for a company like this with a different earnings power this is extraordinary. >> just seems like a bad time to try to dump inventory at marked

down prices. you have amazon and target not is same consumer and merchandise but starting with the holiday sales to buy things for the holiday season nike going to go out saying the percent off you have to think that will rob the holiday sales. >> you are the sneaker head. will you buy the sneaks? >> i'm buying the stock tomorrow i bought some last week at 98.60. i say i'd buy more i'm not a nostradamus. how can it be? they have to do it. >> they have to. of course. >> this is the start of a bottom seeing the guidance catch up people having the come to know what kind of thing you will be disappointed in the holiday sales, too you have to average in. >> this is a three-day rule.

throw that one out the window. see nike trade ten times normal. 44% year over year inventory build is catastrophic. they will figure it out. this is the pain trade now 85 you can long in the name. >> it reversed the post pandemic, pandemic back to below prepandemic and made $20 billion since then. >> right dtc business is stronger. >> so -- >> final trades is next.

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final trade time tim? >> she is one of the few people that doesn't watch the show and may miss this. happy anniversary to my lovely wife >> erin? >> nice. 1-year treasuries. >> dan >> yeah. nike listen worst-case scenario down to 75 it is fine. >> we were talking about we thought another birthday to give another shout out to. >> my daughter eli is tomorrow. >> a huge shoutout to tim's

wife. >> huge. >> to make it with - >> tim this long >> here we go. >> we have to -- >> i didn't know whose birthday it is. >> my mom! >> happy birthday! >> good job. >> thank you for watching. >> mom >> happy birthday. >> thank you all for watching "fast. "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now >> my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere. and i promise to help you find it "mad money" starts now >> hey, i'm cramer welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends. i just want to try to save you some money my job is not just to entertain but to educate, put it in context. so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet yes @jimcramer