good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we're live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm rebecca quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. as joe mentioned, this is the last trading day of the month and quarter. if you are watching the equity futures this hour, you will see relief dow futures indicated up 145 s&p up 23. nasdaq up 64 this comes after another down day esterday the s&p was down by 2.1% it fell to the lowest level since november of 2020 nasdaq down 2.8% dow down as well down by 1.5% giving back all of the gains the markets picked up the day before where we hoped for a bit of relief after six down days in a

row. we are on track for not only a lousy month or quarter from what we have been seeing with the things, but we'll talk about that in a moment the yields are driving the story. the 10-year treasury down slightly below 3.76%. we have been watching the yields all through and picking up this is a pull back. the 2-year treasury with an inversion. at this point, the note is yielding above 4.1%. as we mentioned the last trading day of po'cday of september the dow off 7.2% nasdaq down 1.1% for the month today wraps up the third quarter. here is the scorecard for the period dow is down more than 5% it is on pace for the third negative quarter in a row. that is the first time it has

happened since 2015. the s&p is off 4% for the third quarter. on pace for the third negative quarter in a row the same story for the nasdaq. it is down 3%. let's talk about what is turning out to be a busy economic calendar. august personal income and spending release thed at 8:30 a.m. fed speak is a big part of the market story this week that is set to continue today. lael brainard is set to speak and john williams set to deliver speeches today all eyes we say all eyes. a lot of important eyes focused on that. the selloff yesterday was broad. apple closing down 4.9% and the

bank of america calling a downgrade with the decline of the iphone 14. and google parent app alphabet microsoft down meta dropped 3.7% because they say they will really do a big restructuring. amazon tumbling 2.7% tesla closing off 6.8% >> actual restructuring or virtual? >> actual restructuring. >> firing avatars? >> no. >> real people that is down from how much from the high >> more than -- >> 60% >> 57% >> do we get excited about it? >> still ten years away. >> today's problem. this is the problem. what shoes are you wearing

>> 86 bid. no comment these are gucci. i haven't worn nike in a while today's stocks to watch. nike shares drop after the 40% increase in inventory. 44% sounds great until you say of inventory nike saying it will offer more discounts heading into the holiday season the company did report better than expected profit and revenue for its latest quarter this probably is inddicindicatie we'll come back and talk about both of these. is it good it just bends and doesn't break when it is down? yesterday, there was a chance it would go down hard it tries to come back. >> the uk was something to watch with these things. maybe it is not flushing it out. >> the day before was 500. yesterday down 600 >> it ended at 458

that was the dow s&p closed down more than the day before down 2.1%. >> it was. that was -- believe me i'm watching the s&p. >> concerned about the s&p >> i'm watching it 3,599. i have to eat crow and actually admit it micron what are the chances the ultimate bottom? >> if it touches for a day and comes back >> exactly >> we like to see you eat crow >> i don't think you would you don't want your colleagues to be sad and stung. >> funny >> i can't believe it is not going to do it. >> we are talking about serious money and people are concerned portfolios are going down significantly. >> there are times i need to divorce what i want to happen

from realistic thing of happening. i certainly hope we don't go to pandemic lows. like the nasdaq. people have said that. we will make the round trip. that would be -- who would that be good for? i don't know shorts i hope we don't go to 3,000 on the s&p. we worked so hard to get it. >> the pain it means for so many families the pain for companies as they have to restructure like meta. >> the economy has a hard landing. >> when companies come in and look for ways to improve things. it means jobs lost. >> not one good thing. you can list about 30 reasons. it is hard, like i said, it is hard to be agnostic about it i think all of us get caught up. paulson's going to be on i'm looking forward to having him on he will hold my hand and put

some salve on the open wounds. micron with better than expec ed earnings. you would think that is indicative of a tech malaise we just don't see it in the job market yet >> back to nike. finish this. we'll go back to nike. >> john taylor you weren't here yesterday john taylor, the fed guy he was so sanguin yesterday. the fed was late now they're on track they are saying the right things i'm hoping they will nip inflation in the bud hopefully it is not too hard, but a semi-soft landing. once the other stuff is done, what else can you do >> don't go to this one.

talk about nike. the issue is the same we have seen with the retailers. ordering up to have inventory. there were questions about the supply chain they were doing the responsible thing at the time to make sure they would have plenty there it's just the shift in consumer. trends turn. they got the inconvventory in the same problem we watched move through all these other sectors. >> the one quarter problem or perpetual problem? for next quarter, you will make decisions of inventory that is the other question we're looking at this one quarter. >> they are probably six months out. the stuff you are ordering is on a six-month timeframe. >> did they overorder or what is the discount >> how big are the discounts and can you clear the inventory out? if you do what target has done

take the pain down and get it out. >> off the top of your head, you know how much sneakers the biggest apparel company wearing sneakers because you run every other day. they make whatever that composite is it goes bad. now it is apparel. >> the shoe unto itself. >> you know what else's it is? a dow component. if we're down 8 on nike and the dow indicated up 204 >> we're the strength. >> that makes me -- >> my guess is mobile -- where is oil >> still trading at west texas and trade in brent what price oh, price. trade in chicago. >> salesforce up 1.6%. big gainers are there, too.

>> salesforce? a dow component? amgen? >> walgreens >> new america >> amylyx pharmaceutical with the new als drug it slows the progress of als the first als drug to gain fda approval in five years tough one. very tough to slow the progression. that is good not a lot of cases, but the cases that happen are horrific my mother was very old she had that yeah your muscles stop working and muscles control your lungs that's a bad thing >> seeing progress on that and alzheimer's this week. that gives you hope for what we

could be doing when we come back, jim paulson will join us with advice for investors who have been left dazed and confused by the september market action. as we head to break, look at the biggest pre-market s&p 500 winners and losers carnival corp up 4.1%. newell brands up .50%. royal caribbean up as well and nike and caesars and corteva are down stay tuned you are watching "squawk box" on cnbc >> announcer: this cnbc program is sponsored by baird. visit bairddifference.com.

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good morning welcome back to "squawk box. the futures actually partticked little dow up 226 the nasdaq hit hard yesterday and hit hard as interest rates rising the weakest areas which we were talking about the fed tightening, we said that again and again. most at risk with the high multiples and that has happened. joining us is jim paulson. jim, i remember last time you were on, after the interview, i felt better about the prospects for the markets.

it has been horrific since your last appearance. you are doubling down to some extent you are feeling okay you think we are down 10% since last time? not quite. the same things that made you less worried back then, you still feel that and what are they inflation is telling us it peaked and the fed is not the only thing that brings down inflation, right >> i think so, joe everybody thinks the thing standing between them and run away inflation is the fed. the contraction of the policies since march of 2021. fiscal growth, monetary growth, dollar that stuff is working through the pipe that is mainly why inflation rolled over and why it is likely to continue to ease over the next year.

i don't know if the fed has to do anything more to get that job done i think the word inflation has been done and we don't know it yet. peak inflation has been good time to buy the stock market we also have the s&p 500 selling at 17 times multiple that is lower than 70% of the time since 1990. we've got really pessimistic sentiment out there across the investment markets overall i think the fed's tightening campaign is going to have to change soon. it is just getting too extreme, joe. bond yields heading north and k commodity prices the mortgage rates at 15-year high and the affordability index at record low. there's too much out of balance. the dollar is out of balance

something's going to change. maybe something breaks maybe we get a bad economic report or good inflation report. i think we're getting very close to the end of fed tightening and a lot of other things that are still pretty good here i think we're going to have a pretty good year in the next year >> it's the fed using higher rates to slow things down. orchestrated higher mortgage rates. let's check that off in the past, whenever i've seen violent moves in the yields and bond markets, it is like the '87 crash. bonds moved 270 points during the day. it still happened. bonds were mis-priced. i wonder if gilts were mis-priced the bank of england would do this, but maybe they shouldn't have been this high. maybe your 10-year treasury

before the bank of england did that above 4% >> yeah. >> 3.68. maybe you are right. maybe the fed's work is largely done and those are the highs we're going to see in the 10-year. i'm trying to separate what i want to see happen from what is likely to happen is that a possibility? >> well, you know, i can't prove this and i never can prove this, joe. you know, from about june until this month, i think the markets were comfortable and we're already headed back for a second leg. the 10-year treasury at 3% to 3.5% area from may to august most of the yields are moving sideways since may i think they priced in what was appropriate and they were good >> until the inflation. >> the stock market was taking off. it was good. the fed decided it wants to channel inner volcker and go

rogue and say, you know, although the bond market is messaging this and the economy is sluggish and inflation indicators are rolling over, we will raise rates raise them like volcker did. that's kind of what is really put a curve ball into things let's look at the volcker moment one other time when i think the fed went rogue under paul volcker in 1980 and 1981 9% to 20% in six months. what that led to is the bear market the entire bear market went down 27% by august of 1982 after the volcker moment we're already down 25% right now. unlike then, the stock market didn't falltightening.

here it started falling before the fed was done tightening. i think we could have a lot of bad stuff happening in the stock market >> jim, the spart starting point matters. we are talking about the 10-year treasury i guess my question on your thesis for next year in terms of it being a good years. it is reliant on the fed stopping what happens if they don't >> there's no doubt, becky if the fed wants to destroy the economy, they can do that and destroy the market as well if they take -- i don't know how they figure out the magic rate if they are not using free market signals to figure that out. >> pce >> that's what i mean. it is 5% they could create a massive recession and that would be very bad. i think that seems unlikely and unsustainable and illogical to me

i think the more likely outcome is they are forced to stop overall. you know, it is interesting right now, becky ceos almost all of them saying we're going to have a hard landing and recession. look how they are acting they are so scared, why employ people at a rapid pace adding to staff? >> they have to get rid of extra inventory. >> jim, i don't think that is the case. >> why raise ividends? >> slowdown. you hear about the phrase labor hoarding because of the increase of wages, they are holding on to people by the way, if that is actually true, we have a real problem when the moment comes, they lay people oftf en masse >> wage pressure is decelerating it was 6.1% annualized pace. now 4.7%

it is decelerating this year we hired people at a 2.7% annual pace since august. it weakened. why is that? the labor market has been driven not by excess demand, but surge in supply. the labor force grown at 2.3% annual pay we are using the fed says it is not going to quit tightening until the job market gets worse. why should we kill the supply side driven jobs market? that is what we got. >> i don't remember, jim, when did the millennial hipster beard go the scruffy thing. when did that go are you trying something new for the market or a job interview? >> that's been gone most of the year it hasn't helped the job market at all i think it all went gray and i

don't know if it is worth it >> posing? >> this is joe's twisted way of saying he likes your look, jim >> right well, as you know, joe, as you get older, there is only so much -- >> speak for yourself. jim, thank you how do you divorce what you want to happen from what is actually going to happen? that's a problem we all have, i think. what i wish and i don't want to face things. it's horrible. go ahead oh, did they cut him off >> they did. >> oh, my god. cruel. >> cold. >> bye, jim. >> hipster beard. >> clean shaven. i like that. >> he does look good coming up, eu energy ministers holding an emergency meeting in brussels right now as

europe braces for a brutal winter of soaring heating costs. a live report next. as we head to break, check out crypto bitcoin at $19,500. stay tuned you are watching "squawk box" on cnbc

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welcome back to "squawk box. it is time for the executive edge and latest on the ongoing energy crisis in europe. leaders gathering in brussels for emergency meeting on measures to address the continued surge in energy prices there. coming from the leaks in the nord stream pipeline in the baltic sea with the growing chorus of people suggesting

sab sabotage we have julianna tatelbaum in brussels with more on the meeting. julianna, have leaders come up with concrete ideas of what they will do? >> reporter: good morning, andrew we actually just had news agreement was struck political agreement to address high energy and electricity prices in europe many will say the deal doesn't go far enough. what was agreed? mandatory power savings as well as special levees on energy producers. plan taking profits that fossil fuel producers and help households deal with the energy prices absent was the deal from the eu wide gas price cap this is the divisive topic in europe many argue, including italy and france, that the price cap would be beneficial for europe to bring down the price of gas into

the continent. there are big opponents to the deal including germany who argued a gas price cap may divert key gas supplies away from europe to parts of the world willing to pay more asia and, of course, the u.s., a major lng supplier germany doesn't want to harm those supplies there will be pressure on european ministers and leaders to make progress given we are close to winter and situation would become more dire >> julianna, thank you for the report we will keep our eyes on everything in europe some sad news to report this morning. sandy gosisman and long time berkshire shareholder died at the age of 96. gottesman was an early investor holding a 1% stake and serving

on the board since 2003. in a statement, first manhattan said sandy was known for integrity and curiosity and philanthropy his ability to mentor those around him to professional and personal excellence. sandy and his wife ruth were generous giving $25 million to the college of medicine. buffett was a partner in business for 56 years. he and charlie munger. >> so many great stories. >> buffett said 56 years of partnership. he and charlie and sandy never had a disagreement it is hard to think of any relationships that go on for that long without disagreements. >> remarkable history. you really go back to 1963 they meet and he makes the purchase with them >> diversified retailing they were retail

they owned retailer in baltimore p that was a huge disaster >> sandy was a true believer in warren he knew it he knew it they talked about it all the time >> our thoughts are with his family and friends today "squawk box" wilbeig bk.l rhtac >> announcer: executive edge is sponsored by at&t business at&t 5g is fast, reliable and secure li ome to our third bark-ery. oh, i can tell business is going through the “woof”. but seriously we need a reliable way to help keep everyone connected from wherever we go. well at at&t we'll help you find the right wireless plan for you. so, you can stay connected to all your drivers and stores on america's most reliable 5g network. that sounds just paw-fect. terrier-iffic i labra-dore you round of a-paws at&t 5g is fast, reliable and secure for your business.

welcome back to "squawk box. a developing story hurricane ian is churning up the east coast as residents brace for life-threatening conditions. the residents in florida are picking up the storm perry russom is joining us from fort myers perry, the scenes are devas devastating. >> reporter: we are hearing stories about surviving and saving we met a man yesterday who saved 16 people during the hurricane

with his own pontoon boat with his three kids two sons and one daughter. we met a woman named mandy who stood on the top of the flipped over pool table wearing a life jacket with her husband for hours. she said could you sit on the ground because her feet were tired from standing so long. and across the street, a house was burning to the ground. the damage is widespread firefighters are letting fires burn they are trying to take care of people over property there is no cell service here. most of fort myers, if not all, in the dark. communication doesn't exist. you have people who are in neighborhoods surrounded by water and no access out really asking us what is going on and what do we do? the message from mindy, standing in the life jacket on top of the pool table with her husband, saying fema is saying go online to find out what to do

online just doesn't exist, becky. >> you know, perry, it is hard to get our heads around this devastation when we were not standing there in person people are wondering of people who might not have made it it will be a difficult task to sort through until you find out what happens happened. >> reporter: this damage is widespread i'm curious if we will get a definite number on the death toll really is there are mobile home parks that have been washed away. there are islands decimated. hotels washed away there are some places where you physically can't get to unless you have a helicopter. if you go by boat, you have no idea what's in the water you have no idea what buildings are under there that can damage a boat the coast guard is going from here, fort myers, tampa area, going by air to san dlibel isla

to bring people back this is going to take a long time i think people don't grasp until you are down here how wide spread this is this is not just one specific area if i guessed how long it could p take us to see the damage, i would say weeks. we spent one day in the neighborhood it felt like we hit a corner of it we were hitching rides on pickup trucks firefighters were not down there. they are focused on the barrier islands to find people and take care of people there >> perry, thank you for being there to help and bring us the stories and chronicle what is happening. it awful devastation we are sorry for everyone there. thank you, perry according to the next guest, estimated insurance losses from hurricane ian could total in the $30 billion range to $40 billion

range. we want to bring in meier shields and katie. meier, you hear what perry is saying about how much damage there is and how wide spread how do you come up with estimates? how do you do it >> it's a great question predominately relying on the professional catastrophe modelers and the estimates are starting to come in. there will be an enormous range billion we see anything with certainty. >> moody's is suggesting $45 billion in damage and $7 billion in lost output in florida alone. the brmsi is $65 billion they are estimatiing 500,000 properties with varying degrees of damage.

what is happening? how long will it take to get your arms around this? >> a great question. i would say one of the important aspects is the context of this is we started off in a period of inflation and insurance companies were dealing with and you add on the shortage of materials and shortage of labor we are likely to see, we could see upward pressure of losses estimates. we have the losses you mentioned and the flooded car is oua automatically a total loss it is tens of billions of dollars. it will take months or years before we have a final tally we will approach something within a couple of months. >> i read in the affected areas 20% of the homes were protected by national flood insurance provided by the government what is the state of insurers in florida right now? there have been a lot of insurers who pulled out of the

state because they could not get high enough rates to cover losses in a situation like this. as you mentioned, inflation costs have gone up and insurers have not been able to raise rates appropriately for that are there going to be insurers going bankrupt and a lot of people uncovered >> the answer to both questions is unfortunately yes a lot of people will learn the typical homeowner policy does not cover flooding that will come to surprise to people who did not know that in good faith the florida insurance market has done poorly over the past few years despite the fact we haven't had hurricanes there is enormous litigation in florida associated with property risk that has made it tougher for the insurance companies. when you add on what is looking like a devastating loss and top five hurricane in total damages.

it seems reasonable to the companies may not survive. florida is significantly insurance ins insured. >> all right meyer, i thank you for your time i know it is early days in the assessment process we thank you for being with us. >> thank you. the futures right now about what we have seen the last time i looked around 200. 187 on the dow with nike down. there are other constituents obviously taking up the slack for nike nasdaq bouncing. s&p up about 29. friday that leads into october monday i just have muscle memory that is not so great from past mondays in october after bad fridays. hopefully. >> bad septembers.

>> yeah. bad septembers still to come, we check in with jeremy segel. he was on last week and he is similar to paulsen this is "squawk box" on cnbc

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was all gone rebecca looked in my eyes and said we're okay. if you have your loved ones and family and friends, things will work out in the future >> what is this? let me see that was the moment from andrew's interview with adam neumann at deal book last fall just this week won an emmy for outstanding -- is that why we're playing that congrat congratulations. >> thank you >> huge. >> seriously how long did you get to go with him on that interview? >> i think it is almost an hour. >> 48 minutes? 50 minutes >> i think about 50 minutes. >> that must have been, he could have been laying down on the couch. is that what it takes? that helps >> time.

>> time. there were so many things that so many people wanted to ask him and you needed to get there with him for so long. also he hadn't spoken publicly for two years or whatever it was at that time. >> you had tough questions of him taking the money >> i would say the first half hour was a very difficult half hour because there were so many difficult questions that i needed to ask and he needed to answer that i think at certain points he wanted to answer >> right. >> a moment in the interview and looks at me and says there is no softballs. >> that's step one getting him in the chair. >> i will say i do think he answered them candidly some people think he is a marvelous marketer >> we heard that from

sternlicht >> i like to think he learned some lessons he is trying to get his life back together. >> he has investors. >> he has investors. and look, he has been able to take this experience and turn it around then between this -- i think that interview, by the way, and i hear it all the time i meet people who said i watched this interview they actually decided they liked him more because of it there are other people who had other views about it then obviously wework apple special. i think the performance of jared leto of him. in an interesting way, that has helped him >> i always thought that the social network helped mark zuckerberg, too. i think i don't think mark zuckerberg necessarily loved the movie or betrayal.

or jesse eisenberg it softened him up i get more of it watching that, i always liked zuckerberg more. >> you did >> yeah. >> even some of the things that eisenberg did. >> he was a college kid. >> yeah. >> it all elevated the story i will say, by the way and i should thank jared le ito his performance elevated that and saw it it has been viewed over 1 million times. people saw the drama and wanted to see what he actually was saying >> look, we love business news, but when you make your way into the big screen some way or another, it increases the audience and appetite for stuff like this. congrat congratulations, andrew. >> thank you very much >> 48-minute interview

the only person we could do that with is brian roberts. find ways to thank him and praise him what about 48-minute a block we tried a couple of times at the beginning of the show. we come close. that's what i gleaned to get really get a deep dive, you need time to surgically eviscerate -- >> that was not the attempt. but thank you. i'll bring in the hardware i'll just keep it right here during the show every day. >> i was surprise that had the double doors were open, the security guy, because he knew you were coming in your head was like -- >> there's your twist. >> tony, grammy. too big to fail the musical. >> and you told me i'm going to get a razzie

>> too big to fail -- >> the musical. >> for a tony and trying to figure out -- >> and then you said i need a razzie andi said i get one of those every day. >> share the love. >> coming up we got -- thank you. the inside story on nike's latest report. plus, other big companies feeling the impact of the strongest dollar what investors need to know when "squawk box" comes right back.

welcome back to "squawk box. shares of nike dropping after the company reported a 44

increase in inventories. good morning to you. we've been talking all morning about nike what do you think is really happening? how bad do you think this inventory problem is and what do you think it says about everybody else >> nice to see you, andrew, and i look forward to that interview with brian roberts, whoever does it with nike i would say that inventory was much higher than expected no one thought that it was going to be a good quarter, but, you know, when you have inventory that's flooding markets all over the world, you're going to have a lot of discounting we knew that there was going to be a hit because international markets have been weaker, just their economies have been weaker than the u.s china is 17% of nike sales, international is 60% of sales and while it's down 43% this year, nike is still selling at 25 times p/e so i think that's just tough and

it doesn't pretend well for other apparel makers or retailers that we'll hear for over the next month or so. >> what we were trying to understand, do you think this is a problem for a quarter, two quarters, do you think the overordering is something we're going to see over the next six months when you place these orders and start to manufacture stuff, is that a two-month out situation, a month out, or do you think that's a half a year out >> so that's a dilemma in terms of analysts trying to figure it out because of the following nike is one of the companies that was best at predicting what their demand would be and producing enough to fulfill that demand over a short period of time and they had great resources and great supply chains. as we know supply chains have been disrupted particularly in asia, i think, and nike has a

lot of manufacturing in asia their ability to produce on a short-term basis has been decimated, but now the ability to understand what demand really is going to be when you had that pent-up demand through the pandemic, lots and lots of demand and they started to overinventory, as we've seen across the landscape so, you know, figuring that out, i think, is tough. certainly through the christmas season through the holiday season we're going to have excess supply in stores and hopefully that will resolve itself next year but, you know, it's -- people look at the next quarter right now. this market is pretty jittery. >> we want to thank you for your perspective. it is a longer conversation. i'm sure we're going to have it with you very, very soon thank you. we're going to go beyond ni ahekend t stories behind them when "squawk box" comes right back >> announcer: squawk picks is

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good morning futures pointing to a higher open on this final trading day of september it's a september we do not want to remember. we're going take a look at what you need to watch in today's session. hitting pause on hiring. meta holding off on hiring new workers as they look to cut cost amid growing pressures. a preview of tesla's ai day.

what they have planned for the future the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now ♪ good morning, and welcome back to "squawk box" right here on cnbc. i'm andrew ross sorkin along with becky quick and joe kernen. take a look at u.s. equity futures on this friday morning let's show you where things stand. we are in the green despite some negative headlines on a number of dow components. we'll talk about nike and others in just a moment take a look at the dow up 125 points nasdaq looking to open 50 points higher the s&p 500 up 20 points boy, has it been a down week all across the board we're looking at the ten-year

note at 3.694. you're looking at wti crude. 81.55. brent at 89.12 and finally crypto, bitcoin is right at 19,500 bucks. i don't know what you think that's testing anymore can't figure that one out. >> no. being less volatile and people like the -- others have clutched at that straw to say that b bitcoin has actually held up well. >> lately. >> and i was thinking about a september we don't want to remember you know what markets and everything notwithstanding, we're so lucky to be together and our families i like every september >> where is druckenmiller on crypto now >> he doesn't own any. he thinks it's long-term -- i think, i don't want to speak for him. i did ask him at the very end.

the reason he doesn't want to own basically anything that could be sensitive to fed tightening and we know that what bitcoin's whole thesis is in terms -- and gold but gold is 1600 it's crazy where gold is the dollar is so strong. all these cross currents you can find a reason for and against almost any argument. >> and the dollar strength puts pressure on every one of the central banks. if you don't want your banks to get crushed, the only choice you have is to raise rates. >> but i like every month. and i want to live 12 per year. >> you are correct >> right >> you are correct and, by the way, september is the best month in terms of the weather, in terms of -- the best time to be at the beach, the water is the warmest, everybody else leaves, no crowds. >> and there's the anticipation of another school year, whether you like it or not, it's going

to happen. >> you're getting misty here >> let's get to dom chu. september was rough for -- >> i need a moment >> -- markets, but the alternatives of not living through september are pretty bleak. >> i need a moment here. you guys have gotten me emotional, for goodness sake, right now. all of us -- >> just all heaped on at once. >> it is it's kind of like this nexus of all of that stuff happening in september. it is the last trading day of it we're going to move on school has started and everything else is going on. andrew mentioned what's happening with a couple of the dow components we'll focus on nike right now. as you can see on the bottom of your screen, we're implied higher by about 100 points we'll be closer to 170 points higher if it weren't for nike

shares nike beat on earnings and beat on revenues after the bell last night. where is the disappointment here it is because the inventory levels on their balance sheets swelled by some 44% indicating that there are still continued supply chain issues that are now maybe leading towards a discount to move some of that inventory off of its balance sheet it's citing slower growth in the china region the third biggest part of the geographic revenue profile at nike it's having a market effect on what's happening with the dow futures. we'll keep an eye on that. also micron, when it comes to memory chips, maybe some pessimistic views happening on this micron comes out with earnings that top estimates, flash memory, this is what we're talking about, computer chips, and it's current quarter revenue forecast is shy of estimates

now why some of the optimism well, because the stock has been beaten up so much over the course of the year, it's up 1.5% and got some news that the government of japan is going to help subsidy one of the chip facilities there to build it's capacity out there micron shares, despite a very drastic year to the downside, at least over the course of the last couple of months here, we're seeing 1.5% upside we are seeing at least a little bit of a bid for the names that you kind of care about, microsoft up half a percent, just about flat for amazon and tesla. but the reason why we want to highlight microsoft and alphabet is because those two mega cap names in tech and come services hit new 52-week lows in trading yesterday. you wonder whether or not some traders are wondering whether the momentum continues to the downside or whether that fresh 52-week low may be a possible

entry point for some joe will keep an eye on those stocks i'll send things back over to you. >> more silver lining. just listening to you, dom any stock that's down just market -- equivalent to the s&p or the dow is a hero anything down 20%, that's rare what was micron? it was down 50%. there's so many major stocks that were just so loved at double the price of the -- of where they are right now. >> to your point, you were just having a conversation, right, about where stanley druckenmiller sits with regard to the risk assets in a rising-rate environment. one of the things that you want to talk about is the notion that many of these big technology companies that have been almost considered -- and i hate to use the word safe haven together, but you and i have watched it,

right, guys for the better part of 12 years since the great financial crisis many of these names have become the place where people kind of deposit money because they think that the balance sheet is strong enough to weather whatever but valuations being under pressure because of rising rates and forecasted higher rates is the real issue. >> they were safe havens at 30 times earnings some of them and that's -- >> crazy. >> one doesn't follow the other. but if you're growing at 40%, i don't know joining us now, chief investment officer of new edge wealth are we closer, beginning of the end, end of the beginning? where are we in terms of an ultimate bottom. i know we can talk about individual names, cameron, but just bear with me for a second where are we in terms of either duration or how much further we need to go, close to what you would think is the ultimate bottom >> sure. so we've certainly made a lot of progress of taking a lot of the

air out of this market considering that we've taken valuations from 22 times to start this year down to about 15 times today. but we think that there's still work to be done on the earnings estimates front because we still really haven't seen those cuts happen to 2023 earnings yet. and so as we move through what is likely an earnings revision down cycle, that could be the source of further volatility or downside for this market now, that's the medium term trend, that down pressure on evaluation, down pressure on earnings but we can, of course, have these bear market rallies, these short-term relief rallies because sentiment has become very bearish, positioning is very, very light and short and the fact that we have seen some of those technical factors getting oversold so maybe in the near term we get a little bit of a relief, but we think that there's still risk further to the downside simply

because of the pressure on earnings and valuations. it seems like we're closer to the end than we are to the beginning but we're stuck in this sttough spot. >> have you done the math on the downward revisions or when companies actually do report earnings, you said we're at 15 times. have you done -- shave off what you think is going to come off the s&p earnings and where are we really? we're not 15, we must be 18 or 19 based on where earnings are headed. >> yeah, i think that's exactly right. if you look at 2023 estimates, they're still sitting at about $243 a share that gets you about 15 times today. if you assume flat, that gets you to 15 1/2 times today. but if you consider a recession which would be rather mild, you're looking at 18 1/2 times

for 2023 at $200 a near share. that's where the risk comes in where we reflect the real environment for earnings, where you're seeing leading indicators in housing, in pmis, point to much weaker earnings growth. the dollar as well, the dollar is a meaningful head wind because of its impact on revenues we think overall probably looking towards that $200 makes more sense which means that today's valuation still is stretched. mostly in the context of a very tight fed. >> just trying to -- looking at rates right now. i mean the market was up 200 we're now up 50, cameron i don't know what -- 369 on the ten year it's not that. i guess we don't need to always look for a reason if something goes from up 200 to up 50. on a friday in late september, how much confidence do you have

that early morning green lasts throughout the session we can't have a high degree of confidence >> yeah, we've learned this week that we can see some really powerful reversals intraday and not to read too much into one-day moves. and so that's when -- if we do see a little bit of a breather in yields, in the dollar, it's likely that we see a breather in stocks as well because there has been that inverse correlation. but if we go back to that discussion on tech stocks, i think it's an important one to note that based on the valuations today of things like stocks trading at 22 times earnings, they're still trading at valuations as if we had a much more accommodative fed and as if real rates are far lower they're trading as if real rates at 0%. real rates are at 1.6% looking through some of the day-to-day oscillations, there's still risks to valuations as

they price in the true environment of a very tight real rate environment which means growth stocks should trade closer to 17, 18 times best which is where they were the last time real rates were at this level. >> cameron, thanks up 59. let's get out of here. we got to get you off, cameron it's not your fault. >> it's yours. >> when we come back, facebook's parent company meta is suspending all hiring and will take more steps to try to reduce costs, it's all according to reports. meta down about 8% we will dig into this move next. before we head to a break, though, check out shares of rent-a-center. that stock is getting crushed in the premarket after the rent to own company cut its current quarter earnings guidance.

the current economic conditions have impacted retail, traffic and customer payment patterns. shares are down 63% year to date and another 14% this morning "squawk box" will be right back. this thing, it's making me get an ice bath again. what do you mean? these straps are mind-blowing! they collect hundreds of data points like hrv and rem sleep, so you know all you need for recovery. and you are? i'm an investor...in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to... nasdaq 100 innovations like... wearable training optimization tech. uh, how long are you... i'm done. i'm okay.

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this morning meta ceo mark zuckerberg told employees it's implementing the freeze and the company will be taking more steps to reduce costs. it could include more restructuring and downsizing meta was planning to cut expenses by at least 10%, including reducing staff this morning the stock is down more than 3.5% right now joining us right now is brent hill i think there's two big questions, what does this mean for meta, but maybe perhaps more importantly what does it mean across the silicon valley tech landscape in terms of what kind of restructuring we may or may not see over the coming months. >> there's a coming ad storm as it relates to slowdown in what we're seeing in spend and we've been seeing this across the social companies you have an ad slowdown which is the first thing that companies cut when there's an economic headwind i think the second component is competition. obviously, there's been a

stampede to tiktok, very few, 18 to 25-year-olds are still on facebook so i think you have a competitive issue as well. so in the interim, you have revenues stalling, you have investments going into the metaverse and then you have the combined effect with no interest in buying technology right now and that's across the board. so there are multiple headwinds that they're facing in the interim and it's suggesting things are getting worse, not better growth is going to go negative this quarter last quarter it was negative it could get even more extreme as we go into this economic storm. there's really not a lot of light until we get into '23. the good news is the valuation, you know, is pretty washed out sentiment is probably the worst of any of the large cap internet

names and the stock is trading right next to ebay and expedia -- >> i think there's a question here as to whether you think this is a falling knife or you say, you know what, there's value under here somewhere >> i think there's value, but i think that we're dealing with the same thing across tech in the next six to nine months. there's more pain to come as it relates to technology unfortunately, and i think that this is -- this is an asset that can turn and the analogies we've used is having covered adobe and microsoft. you saw microsoft pivot, the stock goes from 30 to 300. same thing happened at adobe steve jobs was bashing adobe flash. they turned it around and went from 30 to $700 a share. so this could be the same

situation. it's not the same exact outcome, but we've seen some great tech companies make their way back and i think that they have the makings of a comeback. >> is it a comeback because the advertising business comes back or a comeback because of investment in the metaverse and what do you think happens to the investment in the metaverse given the declines and the restructuring? >> it has to be advertising and the metaverse. the majority of the revenue is metaverse. the pivot to the metaverse is still years out. it could be longer than we all think. and that's the concern that all of these dollars going in. nobody nknows where they're going. >> we got to run how much do you extrapolate what's happening at meta to all the platforms and google probably being the biggest. >> we're seeing weakness across the board, no question twitter, snap, right across the board.

there's -- they're all in the same water and we're seeing advertisers pull back. >> we appreciate your perspective this morning we'll see where things land. former treasury official and founder of evercore partners, roger altman is going to be with us we head to a break, a look at this morning's premarket leaders and laggards squawk returning in a moment >> announcer: time now for today's aflac trivia question. the corner of 7th and arch streets in philadelphia was the first site of this u.s. in you the answer when cnbc "squawk box" continues look at the size of that- gaaaaaaaaaaaap!!! is that a goat?! you talkin' about me? gaaaaaaaaaaaap!!! i think this goat is saying “gap.” must be talking about the expenses health insurance doesn't cover.

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philadelphia mint stands today still to come, wti moving above $80 a barrel this morning. you can see it right now at 81.53. we're going to talk oil with rbc next plus, katie stockton joins us to tell us what she's seeing in the charts right now this friday close is pretty important. she talkedabout that with us last friday. stay tuned, you're watching "squawk box" and this is cnbc.

♪ welcome back to "squawk box" this morning take a look at futures on this friday morning we're looking at some green after what has been just -- i mean, red, red, red. dow looks like it would open 83 points higher. s&p 500 up about 15 points we'll see whether it stays that way 4:00 today. we're following a developing political and market story out of the uk. prime minister liz truss met today with the country's chancellor and office for budget responsibility chairman. following that gathering, bloomberg is reporting that

truss' government is sticking with plans for unfunded tax cuts the pound is now dropping on that news. it had been moving higher earlier in the session on expectations that the government would reassess fiscal plans, down by about 0.4. joining us now is roger altman he served as treasury secretary under president clinton. there's weird moves with currencies, bonds, the markets are roiled, bank of england had to step in and that's because there was potential for things to fall apart, things to break what do you think of the news this morning that liz truss and her government are not backing down with what they've already laid out >> i think she's giving a master class in how not to do it. if you step back, you say to

yourself, inflation is running at 9.9% in the unique higher than here, really high and so her first act is a sharp loosening of fiscal policy which forces the bank of england first to tighten monetary policy further, offsetting what she did, and then the immediate loss of confidence was so sharp as a result of her move that the gilt market became dysfunctional for a period of time last friday and the bank of england had no choice, because one of its mandates is financial markets stability, to reverse itself on qe we have to turn around and by gilts for five weeks to stabilize the market which is inherently contradictory relative to its long-term goal of inflation restraint. it's just a big mess

obviously, i saw some reference yesterday to the other part being 33 points ahead now, she's gotten off to a bad start. >> you can say that central banks are the huge ocean freight liners better get out of their way, it's hard to fight against them. but the markets ultimately are the lighthouses. you shift off course because the market is telling you, you can't do this anymore. who wins in this fight >> well, i've rarely seen a period with so much uncertainty and markets hate uncertainty and i think everything taken into account, that's the main reason they're declining. look at our side of the atlantic right now we are not in recession. our firm does a lot of proprietary surveys, they're really quite good, and they are not -- they're softer, but they're not at recession levels. and the -- the -- you know, the

goal for the fed, of course, is to slow demand and thereby reduce inflation, but the point is, they're so far from achieving that because labor markets remain very tight, 3.7% unemployment rate, very tight, and we are such a long way from achieving the type of softness in labor markets that the fed has to achieve to get inflation down and so the $64,000 question is, soft landing versus hard landing. my own view is, the longer it takes to loosen up -- to make the economy softer and particularly labor markets, the more likely we're going to have a hard landing and every day that goes by, our landing chances go up. we are living in global markets, though when you see this kind of turmoil and the british pound collapsing like this, we haven't seen any concerns about those trades here yet and market

stability here seems quite all right. what are the risks that they are posing to the rest of us >> i don't see any reason why we should see 2008-type instability in our own markets i mean, as you know, there was -- there were 48-hour period in 2008 when markets really stopped functioning. there was a brief moment right after covid erupted when markets stopped functioning too. and that's what i saw last friday in the gilt market. the banking system here is not stressed the way it was in 2008. it's not at all stressed our buffer levels are very good and i don't see any stresses in the financial system of the systemic type that would cause us to have those types of instability. >> they don't completely say that liz truss had nothing to do

what happened. they go back to the monetary mistakes that the uk has made in recent years from boris johnson's obsession with net zero to what's happening with the energy rise. they went up 50 basis points you take her to task for i guess being stimulative in terms of the tax cut, do you think that these trillion dollars we spent this year on chips after we knew inflation was running rampant, we do the chips act, the inflation reduction act and we forget student loan. the market is now in bear market territory. you blame liz truss but don't point any fingers at the biden administration >> let's unpack that my criticism of her would be the biggest problem facing the uk is

inflation. and your first step or your second step really should not be to dramatically loosen fiscal policy -- >> we didn't do that here. >> hold on that's number one. the chips act, the inflation reduction act, those are going to take years to spend out, years. that's not immediate spending or stimulus to the bloodstream of the economy. in fact, two years from now, a lot of that type of -- a lot of those bills will have obligated some spending, they probably won't have injected any of it. >> the reason where we are now because of the 7 trillion -- the deficit we ran up in 2020 and 2021 on the other stuff. why do you think this 2 trillion that's not happening now isn't going to be a problem a year

from now or two years from now and just make it even harder. >> i don't personally think -- the future markets don't either, that we're going to have -- we're going to be at a high inflationary environment two years from now -- >> after this? >> most of that spending doesn't happen now it's different if you cut taxes the way she did or if we did, that would be an immediate injection into the bloodstream of the economy immediate. >> but there's some people who think that supply side remedies for inflation like tax cuts and less regulation might help at least you're getting something. what are we getting for the student loan forgiveness >> they're not going to restrain inflation in those steps, loosen fiscal policy. >> given that you talk to ceos all day long and they're trying to figure out whether they should be buying other companies right now or selling themselves at these depressed prices, what are you telling them are you suggesting this is a

falling knife, don't do anything, wait a year, it's going to be a hundred times worse and there's going to be opportunities everywhere is this blood in the water i think that's the question i think every ceo in america is trying to figure out whatever you're telling the ceos is what the investors are trying to figure out. >> the same uncertainty that's hanging over markets as a whole negatively is affecting ceos too. if you ask me what their mood is, i would say it's mixed because of course it depends on what business you're in. some businesses are seeing a lot of softness and some are seeing -- limited softness, like consumer food, for example so i think ceo attitudes are mixed, although they are getting darker -- or they are getting darker ceos are influenced too by market conditions and by their own stock prices and obviously those trends are negative. in terms of m&a itself, it's

so softer but i've been through a lot of down cycles this is not one of the really bad -- >> it's a good time to buy or a bad time to buy, what do you say? >> if your business is pretty solid, your financial condition is good, it's a good time to buy because, of course, prices on the other side have fallen so much but the reality is, if your own business is weakening and particularly if your own financial condition isn't ideal, you pull in your horns you look inward. that's what always happens there's a small category, modest category of really strong companies, financially strong, business strong, share prices not that -- particularly aff affected who see this as an opportunity. >> for those who are depressed and are probably getting offers right now, are you saying, no, no hang tight. things are going to snap back? are you saying, this is going to

be a slog. >> of course things are going to snap back. i mean, two years from now, if you asked me, markets will be higher, the economy will be stronger, inflation will be lower. so this you don't have to sell -- if x, y and z company doesn't have to sell and its share price is down 40, 50, 60%, there's no reason they should sell unless, obviously, there's some mega factor in terms of their industry that's motivating that. but there's a huge category of companies, especially younger companies who don't have that luxury because there are financial conditions -- they don't have the cash. and they don't have an alternative and the way you sometimes solve that is stock for stock because you don't say to people, i know it's hard to sell for cash at 70% lower than you were, let's not do that, let's do stock for stock >> what about just financing

costs? how much of a chill that puts on a deal too >> financing buckets are tough if you need noninvestment grade investing, it's hard to the point of very hard and a lot of transactions that require that are just stalled. everybody knows that but there's also a whole category of transactions either because the credit is so strong or because it's stock rather than cash which can go forward those that require noninvestment grade financing, that's tough. >> roger, you're like a legend and you're a physical specimen with the heart transplant. how many years ago >> 20 years ago. >> mehmet oz was a world class heart surgeon who did your transplant and you could get whomever you wanted. he was known to be one of the

best -- >> i think he was as good as there was and he was a rock star in the cardiology world and the transplant world >> i don't think everybody knows that they think he sells nutritional supplements. now he's running for senate. >> he's a personal friend and i like him and i would go way out of my way for him because he played a huge role -- >> i would say i look at you and think what a stud it's cool. we didn't used to think of -- i don't know, people that get -- in the old days when i was growing up, there were so many drugs you had to take to prevent rejections we got it down -- >> you still have to take a ton of drugs but the technology, for example, in terms of how effective those drugs are and the o.r. technology has improved dramatically and life expectancies, therefore, generally for everybody have gone way up. >> same thing -- you don't sit around thinking about this,

right? you're -- you've moved on for 20 -- >> you think about it every morning. >> how is the ticker, good we haven't seen you in awhile. it's good to have you on. >> thanks for coming in person and come back soon >> i like the new haircut. you went a little short. coming up what elon musk and company could say at tesla's ai day. plus, we've got oil on track for its first weekly gain in over a month the dow has a daily gain, we're still wondering. we're going to be talking about oil. get the best of "squawk box" in our daily podcast. but it's exactly three hours long because we can't distinguish what's not the best because it's all the best. listen any time. "squawk box" will be right back. s is going through the “woof”. but seriously we need a reliable way to help keep everyone connected from wherever we go. well at at&t we'll help you find

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welcome back to "squawk box" this morning we have some corporate news to tell you about new details emerging about elon musk's ties to twitter a new court filing revealing that before the current issues the exceo sent musk a text message saying he wanted the tesla ceo on the board but felt

the rest of the members were too risk-averse. he thought the board's approach was stupid and backwards and said that he added his power was limited because he only had one vote all of this coming as musk and twitter prepare to go to court next month over his attempt to back out of the deal to take over the company i thought there were two lines in there that were significant one was a text exchange back in march with brett taylor who is the chairman of twitter where musk said, look, because of the number of -- he didn't say bots, but fake accounts, you needed to take the company private to do this behind the scenes you needed to restructure the company privately. you didn't want to take down the numbers because it would look terrible which is some -- in some ways maybe an acknowledgement that he understood there were challenges ahead. i'm sure that's going to come up in court

there's so many delicious lines in this whole thing. i don't know if you saw there's a back-and-forth with the ceo of twitter where parag says stop hating on us publicly. this is when the deal is done. i guess before elon was going to join the board, he says, you know, what have you done this week like, have you done anything in your job this week elon says to parag and then he says this is a waste of time i don't want to do this. it's sort of -- it's a fascinating soap opera taking place here tesla hosting its ai day and phil lebeau joins us with a preview of what investors can expect. >> we're not expecting them to make any kind of investor update but there are going to be people who are going to read between the lines during the ai day presentation which doesn't start until 8:00 eastern tonight what can we expect to come out during this discussion

it's going to be very technically oriented remember, this is a recruiting exercise for tesla they're going to probably talk about the d1 chip, the supercomputer and we will likely hear where things stand on the development of the humanoid robot. this is not a robot. this is from ai day last year when they had a guy in a suit come on stage to dance around to talk about that they're working on developing a humanoid robot that will be expected to assist at the tesla plants or in other manufacturing facilities for elon musk, the thing to keep in mind is he's using this to recruit. he's using this as an opportunity to say to people, if you're interested in artificial intelligence, we're the place where you want to work all of this comes just a couple of days before we expect to get the q-3 delivery numbers from tesla. the expectation is that 364,000

vehicles were delivered in the third quarter. we got the note earlier this week, the email came out that they are making a push, as they always do, at the end of every quarter, to deliver as many vehicles as possible the full year estimate for deliveries, 1.36 million vehicles don't forget, the focus is going to be on that ramp up in delivery so much of the focus has shifted over to shanghai and that's a good thing in terms of what you want if you're a tesla investor because of the coast of goods sold is lower there. but that's what we're expecting tonight, becky. >> phil, thank you very much we'll be watching. yes, thank you for showing the video for me appreciate it. mr. roboto oil is headed for its first weekly gain in five weeks. we're going to talk about the energy markets we'll talk to katie stockton later this morning too

i want took at what's been happening this hour. things have turned around. the dow futures are now down, flat, essentially, down 2 points below fair value so you have seen the dow futures kind of give way nike has been a huge drag on way nike has been a huge drag on the dow and it was been offset by salesforce we'll take a look at dow components to show you what's been moving and it's been the icg pressure point on the dow. stk around we have much more to come on the markets this morning "squawk box" will be right back. a fund that gives me access to... nasdaq 100 innovations like... wearable training optimization tech. uh, how long are you... i'm done. i'm okay.

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welcome back to "squawk box. crude oil prices this morning. we'll show you where we're at. $80.88 on wti. joining us to talk about what's happening is alina craft, and global head of commodities and cnbc contributor the dow is flat, but after being up, and we have this meeting taking place in brussels today among the european countries trying to grapple with what's happening. what's your expectation at this point? >> i mean, look, i think we had a market that was fearing powellmore than putin and now there's an assessment that we could be looking at potential significant supply disruption as we go into the remaining months of this year

the nord stream 2 sabotage of pipelines and it's leading to concern that european energy infrastructure is not secure, so everyone is contemplating what can come next in terms of disrupting events. >> in terms of price, though, what do you think is fair value? >> what do you think we'll be watching and equities which have risen obviously remarkably, you say that this is in the right place, wrong place at this point? >> two key things to watch first of all, next week we have a key opec meeting there's some discussion right now that we could see an opec cut coming next week and numbers that are tossed around potentially 500,000 to a million barrels and that is a circuit breaker for those that believe that opec is not back in the market as a regulator and watch what happens next week with the opec meeting and again, watch what happens come december keep stressing this point and that is when the sixth package

of eu sanctions kick in. the first time that we have significant sanctions on russian oil and sanctions on moving barrels to asia whether it's shipping insurance services and that is a very important inflexion rate and the u.s. spr release will be tapering off soon so if you look at this market, you would say on the supply side we should be getting tighter the question is what do the demand concerns look like? >> what do you think it looks like 12 months out, abby months o out because folks are buying equities and they've moved are they still undervalued is there still opportunity there? >> i mean, let's take a natural gas, for example, you've seen the most explosive growth. one of the real concerns is that europe has been able to build inventories in part because they

had russian gas for most of the year until we got these cutoffs with no russian natural gas going forward. you are going to have an extremely difficult time building storage in 2023 so europe may be able to get through this winter and not unseasonably cold, but what's going to happen in 2023. this could be in terms of natural gas a multi-winter crisis >> is there any down side risk at this point in your mind you've given us the upside >> the upside risk is, you know, do we have a global recession that leads to significant demand destruction or fear of demand destruction? that is a non-trivial headwind for oil. obviously, the lockdowns in china has been a problem for oil, as well so this is the remainder of the year is it going to be powell or is it going to be putin that really

pushes the market. >> okay. we'll leave it there helima, thank you. >> thank you. >> coming up, katie stockton joins us to make perhaps some sense of the market volatility and dig through the charts and that's next. the dow is up again a little. >> right >> plus, we are expecting some new pce inflation data oh, no at 8:30, great inflation number we'll bring you the number and we, the instant reaction llyou probably see it as soon as it hits. stay tuned "squawk box" will be right back.

good morning 90 minutes to go before the opening bell on this final day of the third quarter futures are volatile a short time ago we were setting up for a nice gain now the dow is looking to open 40 points higher this hour we have breaking inflation data investors and the fedheads will be watching core pce prices very closely and they're due out in just a half hour we'll dissect the data and ask jeremy siegel what it will end the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now

♪ ♪ >> i'm not doing that anymore. it is back up a little and we went from up 200 all of the way down to negative we have an inflation number coming out in a half hour and all bets are off welcome back to "squawk box" on cnbc live from the nasdaq marketsite in times square i was referencing earlier, i made a commitment to no longer base my projections on what i want to happen is what really might happen because we all -- i'm guess joe kernen with becky quist and andrew ross sorkin the market going up in 2022, you're okay, but if it did depend on that you're probably not in a very good mood as october approaches the equity futures this morning.

we had been up, and we are now up 50 on the dow nike has been a drag all morning long, and when we were up 200. there are some other -- not down, but it's up -- it's not up as much as it was and you can see the nasdaq which was problematic yesterday also up. >> oh, yeah. that's what we saw since that nice reflect rally we had in july and august from the june lows which we've now at least hit. we haven't necessarily said -- i don't know if a technician would say we've hit new low. it's the last day of september and the major averages are all on pace for the third straight negative quarter and for the dow that would be the longest losing streak in seven years. the s&p 500 and the nasdaq, it would be the longest losing

streak since 2009. on terms of current market trends, yesterday the dow and the s&p saw their seventh negative session out of the last eight. all three major averages are on pace for their sixth negative week in the last seven treasury yields this morning have been pretty well behaved and 37 in the ten-year and the two-year 4.15. >> let's get you caught up on the stories. nike shares dragging the dow down because they had been down very sharply in the pre-market you can see right now a decline of 11.4% in its latest earnings report, the company outlined problems with too much inventory and that's a result of too early ordering when supply chains were strained in north america alone, nike said inventory grew 65% in september compared to last year. china sales fell although north american revenue was better than

expected and first quarter results did beat the street expect expectations on both the top and bottom line. it saw 6% for the currency headwind and that was double the impact from six months ago in europe, nike's first quarter revenue up by 17% and included the currency impact and that number shrinks from 9% the third quarter wasn't a good one for deal making either global m and a dropped by more than 50% last year and that's according to deal logic and rising interest rates and a much larger dollar played a part in the slowdown and that bill will now head to the house which is expected to pass it and hand it over to president biden to sign before a shutdown begins tonight. the legislation had been held up by senator joe manchin who wanted to speed up the permanent project. that provision was ultimately axed >> let's head over to dom chu

who is looking at some of the biggest pre-market movers and boy, has there been a lot of moving around this point, dom. >> andrew, we'll start with a bigger picture macro check on things specifically with the british pounds which are on the move with continued volatilities here the gains have now turned to losses on the session and this is due in part to news from the uk's office for budget responsibility which is basically their non-partisan watchdog it confirmed that it would not not be moving up the time line for the release of its fiscal and economic forecast in response to prime minister liz truss announcing a tax cut and spending package the report is slated to release november 23rd so seven weeks from now, but it did say it would deliver an initial forecast to the chancellor's office next week and both with the head of the office of budget

respon responsiblity and a big picture there. we mentioned the record lows that we saw. we did see at one point gains in the currency that put it back to levels just before those headlines came out with regard to the tax cut and spending package that was announced by the government on the home front, stocks to keep an eye on include every big player in the semiconductor business to joe's point earlier, we have sentiment building and we have headlines from micron's earnings and we told you about that last hour and you have stocks like kla corporation and advanced microdevices and the semiconductor etf down one-quarter of 1%. keep an eye on this because that etf hit a 52-week low in yesterday's session, as well and that continued negative sentiment is starting to now play out in this particular part of the market so keep an eye on those computer chip stocks and keep an eye on what is an analyst call on shares of

generac, and cowan is getting things going for generac and they think the mack owe uncertainty is already priced into shares. that stock may have an attractive entry point and it's lost 56% of its value, joe i'll send things back over to you. >> i can't believe it's been $400 >> i think he's still invested and he sent me a note about. >> the averages are all on pace for another punishing week, month, quarter, life no, at least quarter joining us with what the technicals are saying, katie stockton, the warning label on this founding partner at the fairway strategies how are you? >> i'm good. hanging in there

how about you? >> everything you said is coming true nostradamus. we're testing the lows that you said we would now that you said in late summer, early fall have we breached the lows or are we in the test phase still >> in the test phase still in the summertime lows and just a minor support level, mind you, around 3636. we've already seen a breakdown below the 3815 level and that, unfortunately, longer term yields the downside projection just south of 3200 unfortunately, preserves the bear market cycle that we know is intact here as these lows are in play as support there was a really widespread oversold indication at the start of this week and we have some risk metrics that we're watching here in the very near-term and

the 3636 level and that is a breakdown and it would increase to next support which is an interim level around 3500. we are also watching apple, of course and apple is poised to open lower and in doing so not only has it broken that 150 level, but it will be stopping at eversold signal and we have some structural issues which apple is very important to the major indices, but also market sentiment and then we're watching the vix, as well. >> are you expecting any type of bear market sort of rally and any snapback before we hit 3200 and how far can that take us, do you think? >> i do think so >> i am holding out for an oversold bounce and we are talking about days in duration and we do see these levels broken and we'll give up on that pretty quickly we think that there will be a relief rally that's sizeable

even before year end and yet it was likely to occur from lower levels, unfortunately and it's not something that we're recommending positioning for, at least not until we have indications of the oversold condition and improved momentum off of that reading and we don't have that as of yet and these bear market relief rallies can be something of the nature of 20, 25%. so they can be treatable if we're nimble and talented and they can provide selling opportunities in this kind of cycle. we just don't have any way to know at what level that comes from if anything, that 3500 level might be relevant. >> so even right now, if we get a vix. i don't know where it went the other day. it hit 34 or so. that's not high enough for the long term in terms of making a bottom >> that's right. we're not big on analogs, but

we've been running this comparison to the vix to 2008 and unfortunately, the setup is actually pretty similar and as you know in late 2008 we saw a spike in the vix up to 8090. i don't think we need a spike of that magnitude and i think the 35 area that's so widely watched as a resistance level for the vix is not going to be an end of it and we may be watching something closer before we get a major low and we're using that as another vix metric if the vix were to close above the 35 somewhat decisively, that would be another indication that we would want to increase already existing hedges. >> how about the ten-year? what's the overhead-year-old distance and you know, we're not talking about the price of bonds and we're talking about the yield itself what's the overhead? 4.25 >> that's based on previous highs on the chart and based on the long term fibonacci retracement level.

we thought three weeks ago that that would be relevant next year and here we are. so that goes to show how much this trend has just accelerated and with that we do have indications of consolidation and it's not a trend we'd really want to fight in here. we're looking for digestion in yields with 4% now at the june high and former resistance sometimes becomes support going forward and we're watching that 3.5% level as support and the two-year yields also had the setup where they should consolidate and they have support just shy of 35 would you say that bitcoin has been, on a relative basis less volatile or showing more strength than the averages and who is leading whom at this point? >> the correlation between bitcoin and the nasdaq 100 index is still very high and we're treating it as a risk asset and that's a bit farther down the risk spectrum and equities and

somewhat of a high growth name, if you will and bitcoin is testing long term support in here and somewhat alongside the major indices and we do think it is vulnerable for a breakdown. we see that the long term momentum is still to the downside behind bitcoin. the recent action is fickle, if anything and i would not rule out a brief, oversold bounce there, but just like with anything we want to be adherent to any stop losses just to manage risk. >> in the past, you said 12,000 or 14 -- what was your long term -- >> just shy of 14,000. so the long term support that's in range goes from about 18,300 to 19,500 and it's sort of a wide zone, but thus is the volatile nature of bitcoin if that level is broken on a consecutive week basis and the next support level that will be

targeted is south of 14,000. >> katie, you've given us a lot of bad news which we appreciate at least the candor of it all. in terms of percentages, though and there are people that are optimistic about the world or want to be optimistic about the world, is there any upside in the prognosis here and if there was and the general sense is that things go lower, but if you were to look at the other side of it what is the chance when you look at these numbers if things actually do move higher in terms of the equity market? >> yeah. >> i still do see this as a cyclical bear cycle within a secular bull trend i believe that the trend, the uptrend going back to the 2009 level is still intact and i say that not just based in trend lines, but we have a long termed m mo

model, and people who see that are still in the up trend according to that model and model, perhaps not accidentally puts support over 3200 if you look at the early q2 of next year and to me it would be a natural timeframe it see that support discovery and for the secular bull to re-emerge. >> okay, katie i'd ask something else, but i really don't want to, i don't think. >> you heard that, a year from now. >> i know. i know i know i want it now! i want it now! >> secular bull, she said. >> that was something -- not in -- okay i'll hang our hat on that, katie. thanks and we will check back and i don't know where we'll be next time it's always -- it's a probability. >> that there's a snap the other way.

>> i don't think there will be a snap the other way katie's kind of dated and although i would stick with what i said if that were her. >> she's been right. >> i know where we'll be next time at the nasdaq. >> that's good >> when we come back, we've got some breaking inflation data this is pretty important for the markets and we'll be getting the latest read on the fed's preferred measure of inflation and then in the next hour, don't miss an exclusive interview with the ceo of micron that's coming off of fourth-quarter results and we've been watching that stock pretty closely today, too. stay tuned squawk box will be right back. (vo) the fully electric audi e-tron family is here. with models that fit any lifestyle. and innovative ways to make your e-tron your own. through elegant design and progressive technology. all the exhilaration, none of the compromise.

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>> coming up, professor jeremy segal from wharton, from upenn's wharton school to tell us where markets are headed as we get set for the final trading day of the week and the month stay tuned science. go space age welds for super silent cars. go big.

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>> i was glad it was 4%. maybe it will go away. >> if they develop one, what does that mean because they have a lot more distribution >> the bad news is when other people had lured in. >> that had no problems in the first place. >> right >> the global markets paying close attention to what's going on in the uk right now and our next guest says when he's seeing reminds him of 200 7 and 2008. >> joining us is peter brookvar and a cnbc contributor and peter, your note this morning caught my eye because i didn't know what an ldi was and i was more concerned when i said that this reminds you of 2007 and 2008 and explain that, it's not as dire as you would expect at first glance >> cholesterol >> yeah. outside of the banking end and the housing implosion in '0 1k37

'08 it's like every day we learn something new of some exciting product and we all learned what a cbo was and today we don't have the banking and housing challenge, but we learned about a new term, ldi, a liability-driven investment, where uk pension funds borrowed money and leveraged themselves to buy more guilt in order to meet their pension liabilities in the future and that was really the tremor that the uk gilt market felt over the past couple of weeks as prices fell, yields rose. a lot of these pension funds got margin calls that had to close more collateral and that is why the bank of england stepped in you have to wonder how many other exotic products that we never heard about are lurking out there that we are going to soon hear about. >> i think that's what concerned me the most just that it's always leverage in some way, shape or form when things move

quickly and markets move quickly they can break things and we've been asking people about the potential for that here and roger altman said no, no, no, things are operating fine here and loretta mester said we don't have problems here if you have issues like british pound moving so drastically you have to wonder what else is potentially leveraged and if the thai baht can bring things down why couldn't some of those functions? >> when you get such a dramatic rise in interest rates in a very compressed period of time we're going to hear more stories like this, and doesn't necessarily have to be an exotic product just take a small business that borrowed floating rates. they certainly did not anticipate such a dramatic increase in their interest expense and now at the same time

maybe the revenue growth is growing because the economy is no longer growing and they'll have a potential cash crunch and while that not necessarily make headlines that will be another collateral impact from this, what i call a rate shock in terms of the velocity of the increase >> peter, i heard from you earlier. i didn't know you were coming on, but you think liz truss -- i was trying to see exactly what you were talking about do you think liz truss is being unfairly blamed or do you think we're doing the same thing here with our interview with roger altman >> well, let's put some numbers around what liz truss is proposing. this is in the uk gdp which is about 3.2 trillion pounds. so she's proposing 40 billion pounds per year in tax cuts that's all of 1.2% of gdp and the biden student loan forgiveness at 400 billion is at

1.6% of gdp. yes, they're spending about 60 billion this year in the energy caps, but that hopefully will be a one-time thing and that is 8% and something the market is way over -- yeah >> sorry >> sorry, pete i didn't know we had a hard number to hit, but we get your drift. thank you. >> great, thanks >> we'll have you back to lkta more about it. up next -- we'll be right back

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>> let's get to rick with breaking inflation data. go easy on us, rick. the numbers, please. >> go easy on us, huh? we all know retail sales are easy, and we're hoping the broader measure give us some idea with respect to income and spending personal income up exactly the amount expected up 0.3%, and if we look at the spending side, it's double expectations, joe. so far so good, up 0.4 we were expecting up 0.2 and on real personal spending it moderated, but it's still a positive number. it's up 110, exactly as expected and a little light in the

rear-view mirror, but now we're getting into the thick of it and the personal consumption deflator, month over month expected to be up 0.1%, up 0.3, much more than expected and if we go year over year and this might be the most important number of the day, 6.2%. we were expecting the number at 6% the recent read was 6.3. the high watermark was in june at 6.8 and that was the highest since 1982 and if we look at the deflator month over month, it's up 0.6 and it is 0.1 higher than expected and it was april and that took us back to 2001, and if we look at the year over year core deflator it is up 4.9 and 0.2 higher than expected and in the rear-view mirror it was up 4.6 which now gets upgraded and

0.2 higher and we consider the high watermark year was higher than current levels and it was 6.8 and that took us back to 1981 so even though it's higher than we want, it's definitely moderated a bit, but i do think the year over year deflator is something to pay attention to and the market will. let's remember if you look at where the there are index are today at the end of the last quarter and twos were 295 and they were literally at 3.01 and the there are index was higher than 104 and a half and as you heard peter, it is hard to pay attention to all of the different derivatives out there that are a variety of them and many of them, of course, have one big problem that's very difficult to hedge away. it's option volatility and believe me, that's an area of risk that's difficult to control. andrew, back to you. >> as you were speaking. i don't know if you saw it, but

equities at first turned red, more so than they had been earlier in the morning and then bounced back and then bounced back again i'm curious what your read of this is in terms of what you think the equity market should be thinking and maybe what jay powell should be thinking this morning. well, i can't tell you what jay powell's thinking. i can't follow the federal reserve. i'm not really a big fan of their big hammer strategy. you have to be careful, andrew it's friday and it's the end of a quarter. last trading day so i'm not sure today's activity will give you a good glimpse of a reality and i would suspect to see some more buying in the treasury complex keeping yields lower, but that may end. listen, i am a big proponent of the bounces and bear markets and the equities i still say and i take a big step back and maybe people aren't going to want to hear this i've been at 3250 to 3300 on the

s&p and that's still well below where we're at and i cannot get optomisti optimistic on stocks how would you describe the level of the heat for the inflation data that we got worse than expected, but could it have even been worse? >> here's the problem, joe i jumped to one large conclusion, just like jerome schneider of pimco yesterday and a year down the road, i suspect inflation is going to be cooler and i suspect if you look at where most of the yield curve is now, it might be sufficient, but the real question we need to ask is are today's numbers going to satisfy the fed, and in my opinion the answer is no they're going to be looking at 6.2 higher than expected and not carrying a peak at 6.8 and i think the same could be true for the year over year core deflator so i think to answer your question no, the federal reserve wants to see much more of a cushion

before they take their neck off the chopping board >> okay. >> rick santelli, thank you, sir. joining us now with more on the new inflation data and trying to wrap things up here and jeremy segal, professor of finance with the wharton school good morning to you, sir you said provocative things of where you think it's headed and we'll get to all of that in just a minute, but your reaction to these numbers. >> first of all, this is august numbers. you know, we're one day away from october. >> good point. >> i haven't looked into the details of the number. we pointed out that the way these indices are constructed that housing costs are very lagged and they will continue to go up even though as we saw the housing index and the national housing index and housing prices are going down so a lot of these indicators are

lagged in their incorporation of inflation particularly in terms of housing i have to disagree with rick about year over year because that is 11 months that we already know the fed has to be forward looking. they have to look at what's going on in the market, in the housing market, in the rental market and in the commodity market and in the other markets. you talked about this potentially being a buying opportunity. we've had katie stockton on who has been right about these charts thus far and there is still more to go here on the lower end. rick santelli has that same deal a lot of folks has that view would you buy now and does the thesis of buying now rely on the fed that they may not even know that they have to yet? >> if you're a long term investor i would absolutely buy now. i think these are great long

term values. could it go down more? >> of course, in the short run and in bear market it's gone down more and even if they're clipped on a recession and are based on longer term earnings and i think these are absolutely excellent values short term, anything can happen on the short term. >> jeremy, long term a lot of people would consider ten years to be a very long term and stan druckenmiller said you could be in the position where the averages are flat this year just because of what he thinks we may have to go through now and then. i disagree with that completely. the dow and the s&p would be

flat we addaed 40% to the money supply since the pandemic began in march 2020 and earnings have historically moved up just with inflation and the money supply so stocks should be 40% higher than they were they were at 1.50. 55% higher and now they've come down and i guess they're 20% higher than pre-pandemic levels and we'll have the same dow when the earnings yields that i see there on the market show that your returns are going to be probably in the neighborhood of 6% per year after inflation. that's a bit below the long term average, but still much better than bonds and certainly far above a flat average >> when some people compare this and they say, look, the last 40 years. you look at the last 40 years as

history you would be 100% right, jeremy, that you could hold your breath for six pongs and you wake up and things would be great again and then you go back to 1970, but you had to wait a decade at least. what's the difference? >> you take 1970 as a peak some told me what happened from 2000, we are down 25% from that, at least and if you're on the nasdaq you're down more. you're not starting from a peak and you're also at that peak, you are not starting at levels that to me were particularly overvalue. so you're starting from a position that's certainly not the cheapest that we've had, but

certainly economic circumstances are not negative at all. >> you're an index guy >> we know that, when you think about buying the quote, unquote index, there are people when buy individual stocks and a lot of people buy indexes and the question is should you be buying the warren buffett s&p 500 and buy and hold that at this point or do you get specific about what sectors you want to be in >> i'm an index person i also tend to tilt towards the value indexes. i mean, you know, until this year, the mega-caps and the faangs sort of hijacked and growth way outperformed. value is coming back and value stocks are selling at 13 and 14 times earnings which is way below historical averages. so when you take a look at that,

it seems to me that you want to be broadly based. >> right and you want to be -- you want to be indexed and in the long run that's served you well >> we were looking at meta and you were hearing from the media companies, too, and it's interesting because one of the first things that breaks in a bad economy is the advertising piece. people say i can take the marketing budget, and if you're already starting to see that there and then you add nike and that inventory issue on top of that almost by default you have to think the next 12 months at least in the real economy are going to be a challenge. the question is 12 months from that if the market is over 12 months out what you think is really going to happen >> i remember a couple of weeks ago, menard was on and i see downside

a lot of these people say i see downside and another 10% or 15% and then i'm going to load up because i think they're going to be a bargain >> if you can time that way and they all see short term turmoil, long term rally, my experience is when people get out and then it starts going down they don't get back in until it's much higher until the point that they get out and that is a big danger we know how much of the gains are in the first few weeks after the bear market ended and the people are still out they finally get back in and they admit, you know what? i'm actually higher than when i get out. your long term, even if you get out before the bottom, it's getting back in that's the hardest part >> you have to be right twice. that's the hardest part. >> twice >> jeremy, thank you

appreciate it. >> thank you >> i want to mention that on today's cnbc pro, bob pisani has an interview with mr. segal on the book "stocks for the long run" and you can only see it in one place on cnbc pro. >> what doesn't kill you makes you stronger >> maybe >> are you talking about the pce? >> no. all three averages are in agreement. >> yeah. yeah >> after the pce it's been a wild ride just like every day. you were talking negative territory and you do have the extreme pressure from nike shares which was a dow component and it's a strong fight to even out what nike has done >> you just saw it right there down, down, down >> it's early and we've got until 4:00, but, you know. >> we still have 45 minutes to

go until the opening bell and it is friday and the last september month of the quarter, so look out. anything can happen. when we come back, we have jim cramer's first take on the brand-new inflation data and first, throughout hispanic heritage month and we are celebrating the cnbc teammates and contributors and here's cnbc contributor, maria bowden. >> being a hispanic immigrant has shaped nearly everything i've done to get to where i am now. my parents boarded a plain from argentina with two daughters and two suitcases to give us opportunities we would have never had otherwise. it was bold and courageous, if my mom can become a doctor in a new language and my dad can work three jobs to keep it running there's nothing i can't do i've learned to be bold and adaptive in my career and i never shy away from challenges embrace your story and use it to drive you. , and i

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>> all right let's get down to the new york stock exchange jim cramer joins us right now. first of all, what do you think of the pce number? second of all, what do you think about the earnings, with nike and all of the companies that came out last night that had issues with the buildup that we've seen in inventories? >> the pce is too hot, but not overly hot, but certainly does play into the case of loretta messer when i'm kind of blown away by, becky is how bad nike was and how bad micron is for the future micron gave you an unprecedently horrible outlook nike got caught totally flat

footed and double ordering to nike and double ordering to micron the market is so-called shrugging it off and it is short are today and it is the last day, but these two -- these were just terrible. these were just terrible and shockingly terrible and i know the companies themselves thought it was shocking and terrible. >> it seems to me that this was the same story that start at the retailers and we've seen it move industry by industry where companies are chasing so hard to keep up with demand and not miss orders along the way that they did all of this and the consumers moved on, and we realized that we pulled forward in some situations and they were caught flat footed because things changed so quickly. >> people wanted nike apparel and they wanted microprofessors from micron. in the case of nike, they shipped the stuff here and they were surprised it shipped so bad

and it ended up in the retail level that was way too much. it's just a plethora of hours and the market will shrug it off and they deal with it and they do more work and they realize things are not good and the technicals say they can bounce because these two companies are doing terribly >> we have micron coming up in the next hour. is this something that they can deal with in a quarter or two? does it take longer than that? >> what are your thoughts on that >> sanjay will put it point-blank, there are a lot of things that have to go right for things to go the way it would a month ago. it is an unprecedented bad time whether it be russia, whether it be china, whether it be pc or

cell phone and data center they didn't think was that strong anybody who buys the stock today is saying that all of the bad news is in the stock good luck. the bad news is in the stock because the work that i've done on is that you don't even know how bad it is, but we'll find out. >> jim, thanyok u. we will see you a few minutes. we're all looking forward to that interview (vo) while you may not be closing on a business deal while taking your mother and daughter on a once-in-a-lifetime adventure —

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apple weighing on the dow this week, average investors are heavily invested in the iphone maker. its market performance is becoming somewhat of a bellwether for the state of individual traders, and kate rooney joins us with more and katie stockton, i don't think we asked her, but she did s&p and ten-year and bitcoin, and apple was one of the things she did as being so important for sentiment. >> yeah, huge thing to watch right now, joe good morning but good to see you. more pain for apple. could really add to an already tough year for main street investors and underperformance in the i piphoe maker. apple now accounts for about 20%

of retail investors holdings, it's by far the most widely held stock and really one to watch here ahead of tesla. vanda calls it a last bastion of hope for retail. this group has been relatively resilient and buying the dips lately, that's slowing down this week, which vanda says is a sign of deteriorating to rebound. had been steady since june but a dropoff really started on monday here this is an important group to watch. some analysts say retail investors have been the ones, quote, cushioning the markets in recent weeks this chart from vanda here shows a spike in retail right alongside some of the recent recoveries in the s&p. if this group does decide to sit on the sidelines or sell, it could mean less support for the markets, but one potential silver lining, others point out that retail capitulation, as they call it, is often a sign of a bottom there's another signal, though, that mom and pop investors may be losing a bit of interest in the markets. if you look at that decline in google searches we've seen, data

trek points this out, says, terms related to dow jones, apple and tesla tend to be reliable proxies for retail investor interests, all of those peaked back in march of 2020 they're back at those pre-pandemic levels, though, after being relatively stable throughout the last year cnbc.com's got a great story about that head over there to read more joe, back to you >> all right never get over that nick kolas >> nicholas kolas. >> what if you met someone named ann drew or joe seph i've thought about that for years whenever i see his name. >> i have too. >> i guess it's in the teleprompter too >> kate, thank you >> thank you >> for more on where retailers are putting their attention in this tough market, we want to bring in the ceo of ig north america, and jj, how are retail investors feeling this day are they still buying the dips are they still active? where do we stand? >> oh, hello, becky.

>> jj. >> i would say, you know, it's interesting what kate just talked about apple, as we talked before the past, apple, microsoft, tesla's where people turn before to sort of buy for confidence what's lacking right now, becky, is that individual name for people to buy in confidence. what we're seeing instead, particularly over the last couple of weeks, as we've seen this dow move, is more people trying to bottom pick, if you will, on some of the individual names. you know, i think about, like a shopify, amc, that have hit 52-week lows over the last few days you're starting to see some interest there or stocks that have really sold off pretty hard recently like coinbase, people buying there. so it's really interesting how the, i think, mindset of the retail trader has changed over the last couple of weeks and when they are looking to buy, i do think they're still

interested, so that's really the positive, but where people are buying is more of the broad-based etfs, that is, qqq, spy, there's just not an individual name that gets people very excited right now >> so, are you kind of seconding what we just heard from kate, this idea that some of the stocks that have held up so well, like apple, there's just not as much interest in right now? there's not as much support as there has been the last few months >> absolutely. what we used to see is people adding more to the position as we went down in those types of stocks we're not really seeing people add to the positions the positive news is you're not seeing people giving up and selling out either i think they're just in this sort of show-me-type atmosphere. we had a nice bounce early in the week immediately followed by selling so there's nothing that is giving them confidence. we'll see if we continue with the bounce day, it being the end of quarter, et cetera. and i think the other thing to keep in mind for people, becky, is that if you look at what's going on in the market, it's

telling you it's going to be volatile, and i think people have a little bit of fear, if you will, of that. when you're talking to 32 vicks, which you have right now, it's implying a 2% s&p 500 move a day. that's not something we're certainly used to. and so, again, i think people are, you know, being smart in that they're saying, okay, i'm not quite sure, so maybe going to broad-based indexes makes some more sense or broad-based etfs, than does some of the individual names, because the individual names, until we see earnings again, and especially after last night, what we saw with nike, i think people are going to hold back a little bit more as we head into this retail -- this earnings season so that it's going to be a little bit of a show-me-type of attitude out of folks. >> jj, since we keep comparing this to pre-pandemic, the pre-pandemic market, i'm curious, when you think about the influx of retail investors

that came in during the pandemic with the sim timulus checks and everything else, are those same retail investors still in this market are they up in this market do they still have cash? what are you seeing? >> andrew, i see people still participating. obviously, not necessarily at the level that they were before. it's interesting, andrew, i think if you look at what's happened on the clients right now, you're seeing a larger group at the top that's participating more frequently than you did pre-pandemic, but that next level, so to speak, of people who were participating on the fairly frequent level during the covid, when they may have been home all the time, or there was more of a straight-up type market, that group of people is participating much less frequently, so we have had a lot of people who, you know, have enjoyed learning about the market and have participated more, but i think it's that middle group that's usually, as you know, the larger group, that

has scaled back on their participation level, still has positions on, et cetera, and that's part of the group i'm talking about with the apple and microsoft, et cetera they have positions, they're just not adding to them. >> jj, thank you very much we got to run. >> have a great weekend, guys. >> you too here we are on the last trading day of the week, the quarter, the month, and right now, we're in the green, so we're going to hand it off to "squawk on the street" that way see you back here next week. >> yeah, don't mess it up. >> if anything happens, it's their fault. >> don't mess it up. ♪ good friday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer and david faber. good riddance, september and q3, futures are flat as the corporate worries pile up here nike, micron, meta, carmax and fedex. core pce runs hot, two-year, 4.18%. our road map begins with another rough quarter tomcoming t