problem. every single person in the industry says we have a structural supply problem. may me 15% while it waiter for it to get sorted out it's extremely cheap, and the very few individuals discovered it retail like the institutions have. >> we have to go see you next week. "fast money" is now. right now we are wrapping up what has within an ugly month, an ugly quarter for stocks with a slate of losses. naz daca down 10%. major markets all on pace for a historically bad year. but is there hope ahead as we get ready to kick off year four. meta, sheryl sandberg officially leaving after four years biotech for a bounce amid a sea of red, the sector gained 3.5% since monday the charts seeing there's more

upside we'll give you a way to play it. i'm in the heart of times square on the desk tonight -- we start off with a september to remember, but maybe not is fondly major markets rounding out the quarter with big monthly losses, the dow stopping 9%, its worth month since march 2020, worst september since 2002 the loss is pushing all major indices into the red both locking in their longest quarterly losing streak since the financial crisis what's important as we kick off the holiday quarter? there are some reasons to worry. nike and rent-a-centers causing worry. consumer sentiment worse than expected is it possible is there hope that the consumer can save us all? tim seymour, what do you say >> consumer always saves us. i think in this economy, which is a consubjmption driven econo

folks know it's 70% of the economy. obviously today was a day when you looked at other pristine best in class friends like an lulu lemon, which also had a difficult day. if the consumer is struggling then you have to question the multiple you're putting on these companies. i don't think you question the 44% inventory increase at nike, as much as you request, to what extent is the consumer going to run out of gas in the consumer has a job. it was another important theme of the week. we had two more today -- barken and brainard we had folks telling us, we see the labor market stronger for longer just like rates higher for longer will continue mortgage rates, close to 7% this week the consumer has pressure from all over the place, but they have a job and a balance sheet that looks pretty good the environment, as it relates

to nike and some of these companies, i think these are opportunities to be nibbling even on lulu at around 26 times forward, that's discretionary that i think a lot of people wanted to own on weakness i think this is one of those times even though i don't think you need to build that physical position tomorrow. >> unemployment high means rates high that vise is going to continue the get tighter. this as it seems like consumers are dipping into savings at this point in order to keep saving. >> yeah, i think that's right. i think that's part of the problem. the fed isn't going blink with initial claims coming down with pc hotter than expected. at this time chance they hike too much, the chance they've already hiked too much are pretty high at this point. i said this last friday, but the chance unemployment is higher six months from now than it is today is a pretty good one what we've seen in the consumer space and for a lot of companies is nominal spending has looked good that's helped nominal revenue,

so not adjusted for inflation. we're talked about the idea it's been higher prices but lower units sold you mentioned the savings rate -- 3.5% in august that's down from 7.5% earlier in the year so you have savings that are coming down. you have spending that's relying on the savings that can't happen forever. i think i said this last week, too, but it's worth repeat, right now you probably want less discretionary in spending. what worked today? dollar generals, dollar trees. not necessarily up, but outperforming. the last thing i'll say relative to nike, i tend to agree with tim. we talk about the $100 points an a key point. last week, 15% down since then i think fwlk more downside, but you get a stock like nike below $80, it starts to become

interesting. you have to put money to work if it's a stock you have been looking at. >> if other retailers are in nike's boat in term of inventory going into the holiday season, mac marking it down left and right, that could cannibalize fuller price sales down the line. >> yeah, absolutely. i think we should all be concerned about the level of inventory of a sophisticated player like nike i think the early concern for me was when target started to say, uh-oh, our inventory isn't looking so great again, these companies have sophisticated modelling technology that helps them ascertain how much inventory they need to have and what kind. for them to be stumbling is concerning, and probably every retailer is facing markdown pressure i think if you look at margins for pretty much every retailer you can think of, both on the wholesale side as well, i think there's a lot of risk into those numbers. so while i agree that long-term

i think the prospects were nike are very positive, you have to be a long-term investor to get balled up about it now i think there's more downturn to come. >> the consumer could continue to spend, put i it on sayings. but they're going to buy fewer units because things cost more, and each of those units have smaller margins for a retailer like a nike, for instance, which actually said that margins will be very compressed in this coming year. >> yes yes, so the key is margins and the other key is where tim started off the show -- the consumer has a job, but for how long because the fed needs to crush demand in order to crush demand, he's got to kill jobs if the consumer doesn't have a job, then we're going to be in a totally different situation down the road, but it is about

margins. nike warned about margins. the cfo said it's going to be a promotional environment like you alluded to what does that make me think of? tjx, roth stars. if you look at both of those, three-month performance up 11% for tjx and 20% for ross stores jeff gave you a dollar tree. i'll give you a five below up 20% three month performance go down the food chain this is technically the way we're going down this road to a recession. the fed has to push the economy into a recession or they fail, so they will so go down the area where margins are less impactful to the companies that you're buying. >> tim, i know you have been known to shop for the holidays at walgreens or cvs. they have fine gifts, by the way. >> christmas eve

aren't they open 24/7? >> is that the answer? go to the tradedown? >> walgreens has been a disaster it's another stock i have a position in. and it's deny devastating terms of drivers of the business, in otc, pharma and wellness, the story is very well intact. in walmart's case, there's absolutely a tradedown we've discussed this as much as wall far we've talked about them as the most sophisticated retailer, that's one of the chart that's really having a tough couple days but largely off of those lows off that announcement, this has been one of the better charts in retail this is an enkpa you're trading, first of all, just north of a market multiple. when you're considering grocery costs and things that aren't coming down too quickly, it's good for walmart, in terms of being a price driver i like that story. i'm comfortable. >> nike posting its worst day

since 2002 last week, the chart master predicted the stock would see a real plunge, a crash of shorts wow. where does he see the stock heading now in let's bring in carter worth of worth charting now what, carter >> i don't really know one thing we know, before we look at the charts if you think about it, before today, puma and adidas were both down 52% and nike was down 42% they're a highly correlated series of stocks nike was just holding out and then now of course the floor has fallen out tough to press here, buying why? because it's down. look at a few charts you see that descending wedge, and then drops and gaps out through the bottom, just like fedex did. look at the longer term chart of that same setup. you can see it on the screen

we've pierced through the lower band a that formation. another line, this has been symmetrical. on the way up, the stock fails, begins trend on the way down now where can it go? let's keep going a little longer term the really issue is this -- this is the channel, the trend line that's been in effect since the '09 lull, and we've reached it today. aye got a chart since the stock's ipo going back to december of 198 the, and we breached that trend line as well there's no reason to step in and buy. not to say it's cheap, but the thinking that it is cheap is a trap >> value trap. carter, wow. we'll see you shortly on options action jeff mills, do you think nike's -- you just said you would think it's interesting change your mind >> well, yeah, i think there's probably more downside to go, but if it gets below that $80,

you start buying we don't know where the bottom is going to be i'm describing this difficult environment relative to employment and hiring, there are head winds this is a stock that's down a lot versus dig's sporting goods for example, where the chart looks good i have a hard time that stocks like that, they're going to be able to levitate you have a stock like nike, of course they're beaten up there could be more downside i think there probably will be but those are names you could be look at versus some stocks that have more downside to go that's i think the challenge that investors are dealing with now. but focus on the names down a lot, and i think that's where the opportunities are. >> grasso, you like the charts and like to made bold calls, so i ask you this -- will mike see its pandemic lows, about 68 or so >> yeah. so, the pandemic low, you're right, that's the ballpark it's actually trading around the

50% between the february 2020 and the pandemic lows, and if you look for support you go back to 2019 right around jeff's $80 mark, and that's where you get some support there so i think that you're okay to nibble, and we describe nibble as, first of all, three-day rules. nibble a quarter position. i think you're okay to nibble nike, but i'm going throw in a would you rather and throw dig's in there it's up 34% in three months. it has momentum. would you rather dks? >> are you answering your own would you rath we are dks? last i checked i do the questioning, so i'm not clear on who this is directed to. who you would like to ask, steve grasso. >> i'll go with tim for $500.

>> mr. seymour, you heard mr. grasso >> would i rather? >> well, you're in nike. >> carter scared the heck out of me going back to the ipo chart and having breached that, but i like that april and even september of 2019 level that i think is very important. i think some of those down-dre drafts on the low of covid are things we are looking at but ultimately the big test for this company are where rates were high and the consumer had less of a job. coming up, shares of meta closing out their fifth straight quarter of losses, the longest drop in that history but it's been rough waters for a lot of cruise stocks but this one just saw its worst day since april 202078 we'll tell you what it is and what drove the action

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on your wireless bill over t-mobile, verizon, and at&t. talk to our switch squad at your local xfinity store today. >> welcome back to fast money. it is the end of an era in meta as ceo sheryl sandberg -- stocks down today but can things urn around under

new leadership julia borisen's bot more on this. >> reporter: you're right, her departure does mark the end of an era take a look at this video meta gave us of tuesday this was her last day in the office at her menlo headquarters the stock has lost a quarter of its value just since sandberg announced her departure on june 1st, the stock trading at its lowest level since 2019, and meta is one of the worst performers in the s&p this year having lost two-third of its value since peaking last september. even more the economic downturn, meta was facing serious challenges, including difficulty targeting and measuring adds in the ache of apple's operating system changes, declining users and add growth rates, and

competition from tiktok. now as the company works to pith to focus on the meta verse and making money in the meta you know verse it's facing an overall contraction in ad spending, plus foreign exchange head winds yousef squally lowering his top line on the stock and saying top line head winds are likely to persist through second of 2022 70% of analysts have a buyer overweight rating on the stock. >> julia, thank you. ford p.e. is just under 14 julie beal, do you like this one? >> no, this one's not for me i think the regulatory risks are a little bit understated i think that's frankly going to be a larger and larger problem for them and then just in the core advertising business, cpns have been struggling. in the recession, do i want a ton of exposure to ad budgets

especially when there is a much more innovatei player in tiktok, where it's completely overtaken facebook in terms of time spent, engagement it's much higher and stronger and i don't think facebook has what it takes to compete facebook moved from snapchat to tiktoking but i think i'm pretty concerned about this one. >> value trade or value trap, jeff >> it's sort of hard for me to say this because of the way i feel about the broad marketing but part of me feels like there's some opportunity here. to your point, 13 times earning, high cash flow, and it's an important tool for businesses with advertising i'm feeling like this is a stock you can step into for three years. if you're being tactical if you look at the chart, it's testing support from 2018, 2020. if it breaks from that there can

be downside. generally speaking with all the uncertainty in the mark right now, the meta verse is creating doubt in the business, and if there's pressure on the core advertising business you could see earnings come down this is a stock i think you can buy lower but realizing you're never going take the bottom i think there's long-term. >> once upon a time when this company was teflon and you could throw cambridge analytical or whatever you want and it still bounced back, the argument wfs the only place to go, particularly for small and medium businesses. we think it still has that sort of destination status even if there's a broad pull pac it still would stand out compared to peers. >> yeah, alabama that was before the apple operating dynamics and things that made them able to price their service. i look at the cpn declines we

have year over year, down 20%. we just got some numbers if you look from july to august, off comps i thought would have been pretty good so i think they've caught as much cyclicality as any company. i think you priced in a lot of bad stuff. i'll go back to my dollar argument after 28% moving the dollar in 15 months they've got a 6% fx head wind at facebook that i think is a big deal that i think sayser over the next 12 months easier comps these media companies, and that's what this is, price this in for almost any other part of the economy. >> coming up, we're going back, back, way back to 1992. that's the last time this stock traded at at its current levels. we'll bring you what it is. later, big questions about your apple trade from last week. we call it a defensive play. that doesn't seem to be the case

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welcome back to "fast money" buzz kill on carnival. shares plunging 23% after reporting a bigger than expected loss for q-3 and projecting another loss in the fourth quarter. norwegian and caribbean falling in sympathy today. those were the worst s&p 500 performers with carnival trading at lows not seen since 1992. >> were you born >> for sure. i was practically in college no, i was in college steve grasso, what do you say

about cco? >> yeah, so the cruise space, on this one specifically, it turns out the estimates look like they were too high, guidance was too weak bum if you really get into the numbers, melissa, revenue from last quarter was up 80%, occupancy was up 15%, i believe the number was, to a rate of 85% now. they're booking, according to the management team, booking back to 2019 levels. yeah, carnival is the only one of the cruise lines that's trading below the pandemic low so i think this onef, if you're going into less money in consumers' pockets, maybe they go for a higher priced cruise line i think this one's probably due for a bounce, but best in brie in the majors is royal. >> got a lot of debt, julie. that could be a problem. >> that's my number one concern right now. i don't want to own anything that has a lot of leverage and

is also extremely levered to consumer discretionary i think we all took our great vacations this summer and i think pockets are going to be leaner at the end of the year. i agree it's likely oversold at these he'lls but as a long-term investor to me it's just not appealing to own >> quick thoughts, jeff? >> i agree with the debt it's tripled, right? not only has it tripled, but the covenants are fairly strict. it's difficult for the company to maneuver relative to their business i look at it like banks in 2008. accept enter industry, going to struggle >> time for the final trade. let's go around the horn steve? >> i look for companies that have momentum in a volatile negative last couple months, and believe it or not, netflix, you have been talking about it on eric up 35 % for three months.

>> julie. >> continuing our talk about inventory and discount, ollies is a retailer with no fashion, which i prefer. >> jeff. >> i want to be a seller of apple again. going june lows, probably lower. 8% of june lows so sell it. >> have a good weekend, campbell's soup. >> that does it for us options action is up next. stay tuned

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welcome to friday and "options action. i'm melissa lee. the markets taking a late-day turn lower to cap you have an ugly week, month, and quarter. the s&p 500 at a new 2022 low. one of the big surprises this week, apple. you've gotten a lot of questions on this one since we proposed it last week. the theory still intact? we'll go through it together for those who want another more mild mannered trade, we've got something for meat and