then it would--ding, ding, ding, ding, ding, ding, ding, you could do that. or long beach. we're waiting out here! that--that's right. nasdaq a new 2022 2022 low. how should we adjust? we'll go through together. is.

there alternative trade? we have the meat and potatoes for you. let's get a quick thoughts on the week from all of you. what pay week it was. a bad week. i think the seduction. this is a wisdom parade. they start missing the earnings. we're getting it that now, the second act. the data is coming out from individual companies and it is not good. >> scott, what is your take? >> it was a horrible week. but i thought that the close was surprising. if you look at the volatility index. it did come back a little bit. that is the friday effect. nasdaq was up a little bit. what does that mean to me? i think most people think that the june low is going to hold.

they think that had the worst is passed. and they're not worried about what is going to happen in the uk or ukraine over the weekend. >> mike, i feel like you're in carter's camp you tell me. >> that is a good guess. i don't think it is going to hold. this is the basically the premise for why i don't think it will. in terms of real productivity, it was decimated. the reason that we saw the prices go higher, prices for homes and cars and stocks and bonds was because we were creating a lot of money rather than wealth. what wear hearing from the fed right now is they're going to undo a lot of that. if the cost 6:00 debt capital rises, that means that the

earnings of the companies is going to go down. the exact same time that is happening, the multiple that you should be paying for stocks is also going down. if you put those together, it does not take you back to the june lows. it takes you to numbers that are considerably lower. they they don't blink, we're going lower. >> let's get to some trades, shall we? i sold what you need to. but sometimes it is back to go back to tried-and-true. is that a way to describe biotech? >> this is a sort of high flyers' risk. the stocks triple, you get it

wrong. utilities, financials, everything is down. guess what was up? biotech. that is an important thing. a lot of the little ones look to be bottoming. what you see are fairly well defined lows. the next shows you how precise they are. we bounced exactly at the covid loan. moving on, how can we draw the line? we can draw them as a couple and handle. it doesn't matter what you call it. it has all the elements of a reversal foundation. look at the here and now charts. these are one year charts. we're washing into the apex of that formation. and at the same charged with a different set of lines, look at the head and shoulders bottom. and keep as they pull back, you can see it having drifted lower for the past eight weeks, it is i can maing new relative highs for the s&p 500.

we like is a lot. >> mike, what is the trade here? >> it is interesting. we have xpi trading a bit lower. but the volatility is a five year high. when you have the highs volatility ike we have now, some of the spreads that we like to use end up with wider breaking in them. so why don't we look at this a little more specifically. the implied volatility is about 50% versus 33% average. if you take a look at the call spread risk going out three months, the break points for the trade will be down 8% for the short put and up 8% for the

short call. and the volatility of 50% that is down 11 percent and up 11 percent. so what does that mean? it means that we could use a december 728290-calorie verse 728290 reversal. so essentially 10% between now and the december expiration and you get called out at 90. so think about that. when you look at trades like this and higher volatility environment, basically you're downsizing and your upsize expands. we like to do it on the downside which i think carter is doing here. >> scott, what do you think of this trade? >> it is interesting. i like the space right now because it is not going to be

whip-sawed with the rest of the market. and i think mike laid out a strategy that he likes to use and it makes a tremendous amount of sense here especially with the volatility regime that we see right now. if you take a loss on this, you have to remember why you put the trade on. and that is because we saw strength in the sector. is it the alternatives buying atf. >> let's change gears here and oil. this is the first negative since 2020. will the crude oil continue? >> i think crude oil has had a hard time, in general, energy prices stabilizes. we saw the gasoline prices high at the beginning of the year and it is now back down.

that is fantastic. if you look at the names, like exxon/mobile it is enjoyed for most of the year. some of our fears about the slower economic growth are going to be unrealized if you look at jobless claims. and the thing about exxon/mobile is all the integrated names are less volatile and they are diversified by the nature of their business. i think exxon/mobile is going to go sideways for a while and we can take advantage of that. and the way to do that is exxon/mobile is like selling an iron condoor. we do that in november by selling at 80 strike put and a 95 strike call. and limiting the risk by buying a 75 strike foot and a hundred strike call. one way to look at it is we're selling a strangle and we're limit being the risk business

buying a wider strangle. i collected it at 2.15. that is the max potential profit. and my max loss is $2.85 that only happens with exxon/mobile below 1175 or above 100. that would require 14% or a rally of over 14%. and the max profit that we're going to realize between $80 and $95 at that expiration. we're going to see energy prices and names go sideways for a while. >> what do they he will you about exxon or the sector? >> importantly a very bad week with the utilities and everything else getting hurt. guess what else besides biotech was up on a lead? energy, quite nicely. the oil services, nicely. oxy, i like it.

i like energy. >> mike, do you like the trade? >> look. we have been helping to depress the oil prices recently by coming out of the fdr and now we have a slowing economy. that helps to keep a lid on the oil prices. but at some point the nfpr and is relative to global consumption and we have a war going on. and the prosecutor of that war is one of the largest oil producers of the world. i see where you have some measure of support and some measure of resistance. still to come, last week, we suggested a play to apple to the long side. this week, that looks not to good. and we look at options and how

we add in layers of flexibility. much more options action right after this this thanks to avalara we can calculate sales tax on almost anything, anywhere, automatically. avalarahhhhh. what if tax rates change? ahhhhhh. filing sales tax returns? ahhhhhh. managing exemption certificates? ahhhhhh.

business license guidance? ahhhhhh. does it connect with accounting? ahhhhhh. item classification? ahhhhhh. cross-border sales? ahhhhhh. what about? ahhhhhh. ahhhhhh. do you have those budget markups? thank you. mmhm. [bubbles]

last week carter put a long play an apple position. this week, we got some specific negative news from the company that put us in the other direction. we got a lot of questions on this one. so let's get to some answers how to address with mike's call to action, mike. >> the first thing we want to point out we thought this was a defensive play. the important thing to think about highly volatile market, we used a relatively simple structure. we are three bucks week and

week and the stocks are down more. a couple things that we can do here. the amount of remaining risk is limited on a first year basis. you're looking at a dollar and a half per share if the total risk remains if you keep hold of this position. at most you would lose four and a half bucks a share. when you have a good and simple position like long calls it is possible to trade around that position. you could short stock against it if you were going to go short and use that as a hedge. butyou'll take on the risk that you own that stock to the 115

strike price. that is considerable lower as it stands today. >> would the technical support be the original long-term thesis. we get new relative strength highs. this drops the stock. looking at a couple charts. this is where the stock peaks. and it shows relative performance. what i would look for to back away from this is look at the next chart if we break trend, we're right on this. this is the absolute chart. we're right on trend. we hold here. we stick with. we cut it. finally, check this out. this is and all data charted going back to the stocks from

the 1980s. we're literally, we break down out of that formation and the low as the imagination will go. >> so what is your take here? >> is it a great company. if i get to buy is a cheaper level, i would love to do that. i think a global take on this is don't think, how much lower can my call go? it could go down another buck and a half. don't let it go away. trade around it and make it a better trade. >> scott, you got another trade. some might think this is also a defensive play. >> it is. i this it is a defensive play. and we tend to think of staples and the defensive plays. the company that you make the stuff that you have to buy or sell the stuff that you have to buy. names like coke and pepsi and walmart, still have pes. all of those are in the mid-

20s. so take a look at a defensive name that we could buy for a discount. verizon. it is a good business. good cash flow of $10 billion for. trailing 12 months. this is essentially a utility. some would say everyone has to have it. with a pe of 7 and a half and yield of 6.9% and good fundamentals, we can take advantage by selling the november 36 strike foot in verizon. and we'll buy a call. and we'll put on a risk reversal. and it will go october 6th. so we will not see he stock fall dead. but we're putting identify a risk reversal and we're using

that buy a call and get bullish exposure on the name that i would love to buy given the dividend yield and the really miniscule feed. >> mike, your thoughts on verizon and this trade? >> the dynamics that we're setting up, you notice that the risk that scott has here it gives you veneer sided exposure build it doesn't give you downside exposure till the stock falls by another couple bucks. part of that is a function of the dividend. and the other part is a skew and we're a bid for put. one of the reasons that will be the case, the stocks tend to carry substantial debt. and one of the reasons that we see the pe and the secure where we do is because investors are shunning companies that carry a lot of debt on the balance sheet like verizon and at&t, which i happen to own, by the way. i think there is a good reason for that. but i think there is a point at

which we probably should recognize that these companies are probably going to stick around for the near future. this trade make better sense. this is not going that far out in time. so you have some time adjust your point of view over the next couple of weeks. >> carter, how does this one look? >> i'm on the other side of this, two things that i would point out. verizon today will be the exact same price it was in 1997. inflation, you're looking at disaster. it has not kept up with the utilities. it is an operating business that has basically, shrinking, as far as i can tell, the landlines and all the other problems. is it a heavy debt user. i just don't like it. >> scott, last word on this. what is your position? >> i think carter is for getting the fact it paid a lot

of money in dividends over time. so i don't think we'll have that much problem here. >> i'm talking utilities verizon. utilities are up 70% and verizon has not budged. we look at your tweets after this hi anna, this position is all over the place, help! hey professor, subscriptions are down but that's only an estimated 15% of their valuation. do you think the market is overreacting? how'd you know that? the company profile tool, in thinkorswim®. yes, i love you!! please ignore that. td ameritrade. award-winning customer service that has your back.

what is your favorite buy and old forever name to right out of the money covered call? scott, why don't you pick it up. >> for me is it google. it is a wonderful business that throws out a ton of cash. you get something for selling the calls.

>> carter? >> the largest stock in the s&p 500, united healthcare, managed health care. >> the guy asking the question said forever, which implies. google has not been around that long. you don't want things that could go out of business. >> the next tweet says, with the continued strength of the dollar, how about an update on gold? >> it had a bad week. gdx is up 7.5% this week. i like gold. >> the next view was when do i about cash put? >> this is one of those situations where you're looking

at a name the price has been significantly depressed and the volatility is higher. so both of those things set up nicely, but the chart does not look so good. but that is not the right person to ask about that. there is another person on the panel is. >> raise your hand. >> carter >> i'm with mike. >> up next, we have the final call. thanks to avalara we can calculate sales tax on almost anything, anywhere, automatically. avalarahhhhh.

what if tax rates change? ahhhhhh. filing sales tax returns? ahhhhhh. managing exemption certificates? ahhhhhh. business license guidance? ahhhhhh. does it connect with accounting? ahhhhhh. item classification? ahhhhhh. cross-border sales? ahhhhhh. what about? ahhhhhh. ahhhhhh. do you have those budget markups? thank you. mmhm. [bubbles]

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us this week. >> mike? >> i like risk reverse sals and xpi. if you're trying to catch the calls, there is a better way to play it. what a week, what a month, what a quarter. we'll be next friday 5:30 eastern time. - [announcer 1] the following is a paid advertisement for plexaderm skincare. - [announcer 2] watch this. it's all 100% real. witness what happens to this woman's bags under her eyes in an actual time-lapse, in just minutes. nothing has been doctored or tampered with. the very real problem will disappear before your eyes and hers with a revolutionary topical formulation that works in just minutes and the effects will last for hours and hours. over 1 million people are successfully using this topical technique to visually reduce puffiness and bags. it works on sagging jowls, even fine lines and wrinkles on the face and forehead. introducing plexaderm, from sheer science.