it is 5:00 a.m. at cnbc global headquarters. here is your top "five@5." under pressure the stocks do something for the first time since november of 2020. opec getting ready to slash output. a developing story in the united kingdom as liz truss' government pulls historic u-turn on the controversial new growth plan. plus, a major european

investment bank tries to allay investor fears of a lehman moment. and record-breaking sales at tesla overshadowed by the supply chain. it is monday, october 3rd, 2022. you are watching "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc good morning i'm dominic chu in for brian sullivan a new week, new month and quarter. let's kickoff with the equities. they are relatively stable, but mixed at best. dow implied higher by 67 points the nasdaq down 56 we will see if the tech trade can find anything on the down side this was after the ugly month for equities dow closed september below

29,000 the first time since november of 2020 a 9% loss last month the worst quarterly and monthly performance since march of 2020. the dow closed down 6.5% the third negative quarter in a row for the first time since 2015 equities having a rough time these days in the bond market, yields very much in focus given what is happening with treasuries. 10-year treasury dipping slightly lower to 3.78%. the 30-year treasury is 3.75%. oil is coming off the worst month since november of 2021. it is up 4% for wti crude. $83.20 is the last trade

$3.70 to the upside. similar for ice brent crude. $88.95 is the last trade there let's go around the world. china closed for the week long market holiday and south korea is closed as well. the indian market down 1% and everything else playing out a little bit more muted. in europe, let's spin that globe around red arrows except for portugal which may be to the upside cac and france is down uk is down 1%. similar for the german dax leading the declines is credit suisse this is a fast moving story this morning. shares of the swiss investment bank are sinking are reports that the top executives are working to reassure investors and top clients of the financial

health and future solvency downplaying what some are calling a possible european quote/unquote lehman moment. pressure in credit suisse taking down financial peers deutsche bank down 4.5%. commerz bank is down 3% let's stick with the european trade and the uk government led by prime minister liz truss pulls a policy pivot and abandons a key as expect of thee plan one that forced the bank of england to intervene we have a lot to unpack. let's go to arabile gumede in

berm birmingham what is happening in birmingham right now? >> reporter: dominic, a lot of news happening particularly it has been a moving monday morning for sure in birmingham. the uk chance lollor announcingh 45% tax cut which was meant to be cut has been taken away abolishing that move the aim of that to try to make the taxes simpler and be in line with the g7 countries. the problem becomes that you now reneges on the promise you put forward as a government and element that liz truss had gone

on the campaign trail about. the tax cuts were critical she did get a mandate from the conservative party members saying to her that it was not the right way to go about things then she decided she has moved along and decided against it noting in the tweet today that we get it and we have listened the abolition of the 45% rate had become a distraction from the mission to get britain moving our focus is on building a high growth economy that funds world class public services and boosts wages and creates opportunities for the country. they reneged on one element. the next piece of the pie is what happens when it comes to the tax cuts do they create another wave? will they communicate better the market has certainly reacted in different ways as you noted the ftse 100 going down 1% this

morning. the currency, the sterling, .4% better market pricing better. not necessarily hit 6% anymore, but perhaps around 5.5 or 5.7% we are expecting the uk finance minister to deliver a conference speech today at 4:15 p.m. to quell the market fears further to give a sense that things will get better from here and the direction they plan to take on as well. all of that happening. it is a moving monday morning in birmingham we will give you the latest. >> arabile, i wonder we have been showing the charts as you have been giving your report one was the chart of the british pound and pound sterling or whatever you want to call it it is back up close to $1.12 that is still weak, but back up to where it was before this

whole truss and fiscal stimulus news tax cut came out. i heard a lot of words describing the situation the one word that keeps popping up is credibility. how much is credibility now with the uk government now they are newly minted and this is happening in the first two or three weeks? >> reporter: it will be a month exactly on friday morning since liz truss took over as prime minister of uk there are two elements with credibility. one end, they have gone back on their word put out a bold plan which is what liz truss said the government would need. they need to put out bold movements and be quick and i believe impact the economy to ensure the government is acting quickly with higher energy prices

on the other hand of the ordeal, one could look and say they are all right. they are listening to people the cutting of the tax rate at the top of the spectrum means the richer would get a tax break. it would help them not the larger population. there are two elements to say maybe credibility has worn a little bit, but if you are willing to listen, not stand firm and stubborn to senses, it means you are willing to listen to consumers it may put them in good stand. >> arabile gumede, thank you very much. to another developing story and one sending oil prices sharply higher we go to bertha coombs bertha >> good morning, dom the price of u.s. and international crude surging on reports that opec and allies known as opec plus will consider

an output cut of 1 billion barrels a day when it meets later this week. if confirmed, it would be the biggest move by the cartel since the start of the pandemic to address oil market weakness. opec plus which combined opec countries and allies including russia has so far refused to raise output to lower oil prices despite consumers. oil is off the worst impoperforc since 2021 with the nearly 25% loss since july. of course, higher oil prices is not going to make the fed's job easi easier dom. >> thank you, bertha coombs. futures searching for direction after a rough month and quarter for u.s. stocks. it could get worse amid investor

sentiment shift. look at a note from goldman sachs this weekend and david kosten a weaker economy will drive households to continue selling stocks there is no alternative to the t.i.n.a. trade expecting $100 billion in equities in 2023 joining me now is matt maley matt, this is an interesting point brought up in maybe more and more american householding g got the benefits of the rally and use as a source of funds in the event of the eventual real down turn which we could be on the precipice now. how vulnerable is the stock

market with the 30% decline? >> dom, we have seen the big decline. we have to question if the market has become cheap? if we are heading to recession which is almost a lock if we are not flralready in one earnings growth goes down. every recession since world war ii has seen a decline in earnings the forecast has to come down before the end of the year next year we have a negative year for earnings. the average is 10% during recession. if it is not that bad, we are looking at a market that is really trading at 16 times quarterly earnings it is more 18 or 19 times. if you have people already with credit card maxed out and they have to find somewhere else to raise money to pay for necessities like higher oil price, you are right the stock market will have to fall further before the ultimate

bottom is reached. >> matt, how stressed are investors height right now anybody who owns a 401(k) plan or any portfolio has felt pain it is not a massive amount of pain acutely pointed to one specific time period we have seen a decline or r re-rating of the market. er oeveryone is looking for capitulation >> sentiment is negative the market is oversold not wildly oversold. it is oversold very negative sentiment in the oversold market. it does leave us for a good chance we see a sharp bounce soon the problem is what will happen on the longer term basis the market is overvalued which is a big concern the other thing is the situation

with credit suisse is it a lehman moment? the one thing people are saying is don't worry the banking system is in much better shape i agree. what would it be if something is really going on with credit situ swiss? it means there is a hole in the derivatives market suddenly the other side is not there if something happens with credit suisse. suddenly they will not be on the verge of going out of business, but bigger losses than people thought. there is still a lot of pot holes out there or bigger concerns we have to worry about in the months ahead. >> what are the pot holes? what are the bigger pot holes we have to worry about? interest rates is that the prevailing major headwind that markets are trying to figure out right now? >> that is the concern you know, we said low interest

rates are what helped the extended or higher valuation levels for many years now. interest rates stay high and that makes it a big problem. one thing i look for is if we get more concerning, you have the flight to quality and flight to safety in the treasury market we see whatever we get the second leg of the bear market, we get a blowup and that is no interest rates interest rates go down a little bit in the flight to safety trade. something else creates the problem. blow up of the credit markets or further decline in earnings. >> we are keeping a close eye. matt maley, thank you very much. when we come back on the show, more on the developing situation in the uk and what it means for markets here at moment we have mark zdian here to weigh in more right after this.

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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." the dollar is holding near the flat line today. rising more than 7% as the federal reserve stays on the pathi to bring inflation under control. morgan stanley's mike wilson

says any rise in the dollar has a negative effect of s&p 500 earnings stronger dollar good in some ways and bad in others joining me now is wolfgang koester. wolfgang, this story has been playing out for a long time. the trend has been to the upside we are entering the earnings season this is when the multinational companies may start to feel the pinch. what exactly do we have to worry about as investors with the stronger dollar? >> yeah. it hits to the news of the first and bottom line. as you know, when the dollar strengthens and doing business abroad, you get less dollars back we are seeing already that in the first half of the year, u.s. corporates have lost in excess of $50 billion of revenue from foreign exchange and strength in the currencies

what corporations are doing about this is they are under their headline of enterprise liquidity management, they are looking to best manage that currency risk in the environment that is a race to the top on currencies >> wolfgang, when it comes to the impact on companies, you are in a position where you get to speak with many chief executive and financial officers at multinational corporations what is the preparation like for how they tackle some of the currency headwinds when they report earnings and commentary in the next few weeks? >> great question. they think about it from the tactical and perspective point of view. you have companies like microsoft coming out and actually guiding the street toward the impact that they are going to have on foreign exchange then you have the more strategic

areas they want to talk about. should i think about repositioning where we do manufacturing? they will not reposition where they do sales, but think about the global point of view how do you optimize currency with the working capital what is what cfos and ceos are focused on and asked about by the boards. >> wolfgang, thank you very much still on deck, more on what some are calling a possible quote/unquote lehman moment. leslie picker is here baktore down what you need to know about credit suisse.

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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." i'm phillip mena we start with heurricane ian more than 644,000 homes in florida still do not have power. ian may be long gone, but the threats of flooding loom floridians have to watch for compound flooding. it can reverse direction and bringing more water inland. one of the worst sporting tragedies in the world 125 people are dead after a stampede at the soccer match in

indonesia. supporters of the losing team stormed the field throwing objects. police fired tear gas. the world soccer governing body banned tear gas at stadiums. fifa calls it a tragedy beyond comprehension. brazil's presidential election is headed to a run-off vote after neither candidate got 50% of the vote. de silva will face a rematch on november 30th. come. ahead of the show, tesla shares sinking down 4% find out why we "worldwide exchange" returns after this commercial break

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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." i'm dominic chu in for brian sullivan let's get a look at your markets. futures are mixed. modestly so. dow implied higher 110 points. s&p implied higher by 4. let's check on the big money movers tesla. bertha coombs, what is sending

shares lower >> dom, tesla shares sinking on the back of the third quarter delivery figures were at a record for the period with 343,000 autos worldwide. that missed expectation. tesla with issues with transport prices and executive turnover and production issues at factories including the lockdowns in china in july, tesla suspended the factory production in shanghai elon musk is aiming for steady delivery between quarters adding that the customer experience suffers from the end of quarter rush you see shares down over 4.5%. dom. >> bertha coombs, thank you very much for the update on tesla. to a developing story. shares of credit suisse sinking on the executives decision to work to assure top clients of

the financial health and future solvency downplaying a possible what people are calling european lehman moment. it is taking down others as well deutsche bank and commerz bank and ubs all down between 2% to 5% leslie picker has been working the phones and joins us with the latest leslie, what can you tell us about how bad it is at credit suisse right now >> dom, credit suisse facing a real crisis of confidence over the weekend. at least on social media platforms. with buzz proclamations of the lehman moment. the stock price you showed down significantly lower than as the c-suite looks to reassure the equity and debt side and employees and public that the bank is not on the brink

it is important to take a step back and assess how we got here and what the facts are that we know the rumor mill kicked off with the report about a week ago saying the firm was sending off about investors about cap hike it has fallen every day since now at $4 a share. the firm said it is on track with asset sales to help cash. an internal memo obtained by cnbc amid the sinking stock price and uncertainty and speculation. i trust that you are not confusing our day-to-day stock price with the strong capital base and liquidity position of the bank still credit defaults assuring

the bonds against defaults to 2009 levels. others were less convinced that several tweets predicting the demise as scare mongering. credit suisse tier 1 was 13.5% i'm told there is genuine interest in the securities unit which could shore up some capital. the firm is sitting on hundreds of millions of losses by leveraged debt that the market will not absorb. it is impossible from the outside to get a minute by minute account of the true picture of risk on its balance sheet. for now, we wait and see what the market does today.

dom, they have the transformation plan they will announce in three weeks. >> i have so many questions. we are limited by the time the first one is there is no doubt among many of the folks i speak to who watched financial markets and specifically the banking sector and they keep hammering home the point you made that the tier 1 capital at credit suisse is solid there is no real issue with it then the talk turns to whether or not there can become a run on the bank, but the idea that confidence erodes that clients may have to think twice about doing business with credit suisse how impactful is that? is that the reason credit suisse is active in trying to talk everybody off the ledge? >> that is right we have seen this movie before, dom. crisis of confidence impacted

every financial crisis and issue with banking going back hundreds of years the idea that people are concerned they can't trust the bank or do business with the bank one thing that is different and unique as you look at this is the last time we had a so-called lehman moment, twitter was two years old. it did not have the number of users today. reddi. it is nreddit is not the plat r form it is today if people talking the talk on social media that is difficult to ascertain at this point in time. >> leslie, we are showing european bank peers and how they are trading.

we saw this crisis with deutsche bank it happens we are showing deutsche bank and commerz bank there may be a potential tie up with commerz bank and deutsche bank back in the day how much are your sources feeling somebody is eyeing to take out credit suisse >> a good point bringing up deutsche bank. a lot of people have been saying that four or five years ago, deutsche bank looked like credit suisse does now people were worried that deutsche bank would not be around the bank did stabilize to your point, there were talks of consolidation in order to bolster that bank. with credit suisse, it is not necessarily the issue of scale, but issue in terms of transaction is the ability to raise cash

the deal making stems from asset sales and difficulvestitures looking for equity raise to shore up what some are calling deficits with the balance sheet. >> leslie picker with the latest at credit suisse thank you for that. the european side of things and another developing story the uk government led by liz truss pulling a major fiscal pivot and abandoning the new growth plan which would slash a 45% tax on high income individuals. the tax cut was announced last week with little warning sending financial markets into a tailspin joining me now is mark zandi with the latest from moody's

mark, how important is the slashing of the 45% top tax rate it is not so much about that, but it would not raise that much money, but more about the perception of the plan can you take us through what your feeling is about whether or not this is a viable economic and fiscal plan? >> no, dom, it is not. the government deserves credit for back tracking partially on the plan they put forward. the plan as it currently stands and could change again, is bad policy pure fiscal stimulus deficit finance tax and government spending increasing at the time when the economy is operating well beyond full employment and inflation pressure are severe. more severe than the u.s they have a serious fiscal problem. this adds to that. there are questions of fiscal sustainability dom, the thing that is most

disturbing is the lack of credibility of the government. you know, how that may effect the credibility of the bank of england. bank of england is in a tough spot they need to raise interest rates to offset the package and that will be tough to do under the scrutiny of the government the credibility of the folks running the show is really low obviously, a big problem for the uk the uk is an important part of the financial system and that is a problem for everybody. >> you are probably the third dozen person i have spoken to in the last week with regard to the uk and they used word credibility or some iteration. we asked earlier to our correspondent in england this is about a month old. how important is it to establish

the notion for the economy going forward and is this the way to go about doing it? they have a conservative party conference going on in birmingham in the uk >> it will be tough. i don't know how they fix this today's move to unwind the tax cut for high income households is a good step i'm not sure how they will do it i'm schurure right now. the bank of england has to step up and manage monetary poll in the w-- policy. they will have to follow through on that and start to pivot away from the kwauquantitative easinn start tightening they will have to. if they don't, inflation is going to be become more e

entrenched here and stagflation is a scenario. i don't know if this government can figure this out. i hope the bank of england can salvage things it has credibility and hope it will establish that going forward here. >> mark, we did a segment earlier in the program talking about the strength of the u.s. dollar it is a regime at this point it is an up trend for the u.s. dollar i guess maybe you could argue that on a relative bases which financial markets are all about, the u.s., the fed, even the treasury department are in a better position versus many peers. is this dollar strength going to continue and eventually be a real drag on the u.s. economy and its markets? >> yeah. it will remain strong for a while. as long as the fed is engaged in raising interest rates and it is unclear where they will stop and when they will stop and how long the high rates prevail, the

dollar remains strong. that means well into next year when i say strong, it is really strong you look at the broad trade basis. not just against the pound, but every. chinese, euro, yen whatever it is it is as strong as the early 1980s. that is the only other time it has been as strong as today since the world adopted flexible exchange rates it won't stay here forever once we get on the other side of the rate hikes and inflation moderates, it will, the economy normalizes and the dollar will come back in between now and then, it is some time as you point out, it will begin to slow growth i will say that is by design to some degree. the fed needs and wants the economy to slow and job growth to get to something consistent and unemployment moving higher one way to do that is with the

strong dollar and bigger trade deficit. to some degree, that is by design here. >> all right mark zandi, anyothk u very much. we're back with "worldwide exchange" after this brief commercial break in just two days. new crepe corrector lotion only from gold bond. champion your skin.

. welcome back to "worldwide exchange." netflix is up 30% in the time

frame in the third quarter year to date, the stock is down 60%. watch the netflix shares a barometer of sentiment in the market to another developing story and one sending oil prices higher opec plus is considering a production cut of 1 million barrels per day. the group which includes the cartel and allies like russia will meet in person on wednesday for the first time since the virus pandemic since peaking in june, oil prices are down 25%. let's get more from oleg hansen. this is a big move in oil. it is not uncommon we have seen volatility in the markets. is this move by opec and producer countries like russia enough to trigger a massive

upside surge from the highs in june >> dom, hi i don't think it is. what we have to consider is opec plus has been struggling for months to actually fproduce a quote level. we have a handful of states that produce according to the program. russia below 1 million barrels if they cut by 1 million, they have to change the system for that number to be a real cut in market you would imagine only the coun countries will reduce accordingly. that is less than half of the increase that has been talked about. there is a reason they are meeting face-to-face in vienna this week. it is a controversial decision the impact is probably going to be less and what the market is looking for.

dom, the 4% today could be an indication the market is hesitant >> i stopped at the gas station before i got to work i paid $3.19 for regular unleaded in the metro area that was way below where it was three months ago is the fair price of oil right now somewhere in the $80 range? >> if you look at the demand side, it should be below as always, with commodities, we have commodities rising although demand is coming down. we all know that the embargo on russian oil will kick in in december given the recent developments in the ukraine and from russia, there is no doubt that embargo will be implemented. that will remove barrels from

the market russia cannot find allternative buyers spr releases will come to the market we got the whole energy crisis in europe which will continue to add diesel at the expense of gas wherever possible. we are in the situation demand level is slowing, but so is the supply outlook we are closer to the mid-90s than 80s >> ole hansen, thank you very much as we head to break, hispanic heritage month and cnbc is celebrating our colleagues as we head to break here is jane and jessica >> i grew up being bilingual

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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." futures showing a modest open. dow implied higher by 33 points. let's bring in jeff kilburg and quincy is the market narrative now one that is negative enough for people to buy at the lower levels >> i think it is moving in that direction.

you need a catalyst to get the market climbing higher it could be an announcement from a company that comes in with a positive pre-announcement that will tilt the market over. the deeper the sentiment, the worst the sentiment and you are moving toward a rally. is it the end of the down turn probably not. >> is it the end of the down turn, probably not jeff, that doesn't sound good. retail traders and investors say look how far netflix has fallen or meta or alphabet. it hit 52-week lows on friday. >> dom, you have a great point as we see sentiment sour, we saw the market close the quarter on

the whimper. the worst quarter since then was 2002 when the september month was down 11% certainly it is a challenging macro environment. i think quincy brings up a great point. we are seeing oversold conditions and maximum pessimism. i think the catalyst could be earnings season. you continue to see the bar lower. there is a ton of opportunity in technology you know, dom, i beat that drum all year long. from growth to value i think there is an opportunity to your point to look at the mega cap names like facebook and meta and dom, i'll put a bow on this box. you are not seeing panic we saw huge volume surge to close the month. we are not seeing panic. there is a price discovery it is orderly. we see the markets move higher. i'm optimistic.

>> i have seen that, quincy, what jeff just said. there has been valuation in the equities market of the face of rising interest rates. there is no panic can be something to panic about, right, quincy the idea we have not seen a flush out. is one coming? >> most likely one is coming there will be another event. a fault line that we will see and that may scare the difay lights out of the weaker hand. you know what is interesting the rallies have been led by the retail buyers. when they feel comfortable we discounted the headwinds including a recession and what kind mof recession going into this month, i think the earnings season has pess pessimism. we have seen more negative estimates coming in before we open the official opening of

earnings all you need are a couple of companies coming in and saying you know what? it is not that bad the second quarter we went with tremendous pessimism. it was not stellar, but it was okay out of that you will see that. there will be an catalyst. >> quincy, if i could follow-up with you on this jeff brought the picks he was looking for to find value in the market are their places that could be attractive if this negativity continues? >> yes absolutely the fact is we still like energy stocks you have the opec meeting. they will cut more not what they did last month this month will be bigger. it will be a million barrels a

day of a cut they want to protect while they can a bottom for the cartel. i do think also people looking at the bond market the bond market has been resurrected. the short duration investment grade is attractive. again, going back into the equity market. you do have better and better opportunities. i think you will have entry points still you've got to be invested in the equity market. i will look at the beaten up names in the energy sector supply is tight. petroleum reserve has to be filled again we are going into the winter season. >> jeff, we will give you the last word. what is the biggest fear in the market >> my biggest fear is the boat is listing to one side, dom the portfolio i run, we owned energy look at ieo.

ige. those are two etfs these are names that continue to produce. dance between the rain drops just breathe >> jeff kilburg and quincy krosby thank you very much. that does it for "worldwide exchange." "squawk box" is coming up next we'll see you tomorrow another busy day? of course - you're a cio in 2022. but you're ready. because you've got the next generation in global secure networking from comcast business. with fully integrated security solutions all in one place. so you're covered. on-premise and in the cloud. you can run things the way you want - your team, ours or a mix of both. with the nation's largest ip converged network. from the most innovative company. bring on today with comcast business. powering possibilities.

good morning welcome to the fourth quarter. welcome. new breaking united kingdom making a u-turn on the tax plan. details ahead. credit suisse shares falling after the executives spent the weekend to reassure investors it

is not facing a so-called lehman moment. tesla trading lower. the third quarter deliveries were short of wall street e expec expectations it is monday, october 3rd, 2022. "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm rebecca quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. we are watching the equities this monday morning. the turmoil over the last quarter and month. if you see this morning, things are mixed. dow is up 120 points above fair value. s&