>> steve weiss >> eqt. >> and joe t.? >> raymond james financial services we'll see if we can hold on to this really sizable rally to start the we'll. "the exchange" begins right now. coming up here on "the exchange," rally on, garth is there more ahead now that september is mercifully behind us we'll hear from a person who sees another 15% gain on the s&p about of the end of the year, oak p., they're meeting in austria wednesday. plus a look at the american economy from one of the its most popular restaurants. the ceo of p.f. chang's is here

all of that is ahead we've got to begin with this rally. scott in halftime just talked about it it is a broad-based rally as well there's some stocks that are down, but all the sectors are higher, dow up 628, 2% gain, so a nice pop there for the blue chips. as stocks move higher, rates are moving lower, in some cases by a lot. ten-year and two-year seeing significant jobs crude oil jumps on the opec rumors the energy sector is higher right now, halliburton, devon energy semiconductors also making a night comeback, lamb research, applied material, western digital, even intel is higher, as it announces it would spin

off its mobile io unit peloton is getting a nice lift it's announced it has a partnership with hilton to provide machines at all of its hotels listen, we don't want to make too much of it the stock has come down massively from the highs, so a tiny green shoot for one of the most beaten-up stocks the past year now to the lead story, that is oil something big may be about to lap with opec. the group is set to meet on wednesday. this weekend they called a big-time audible they announced the meeting will not by virtual it will be in person the first in-person meeting since covid hit, that is leading to reports that they may be ready to cut production. if they do it, it will be the largest cut since the pandemic with the meeting in person in austria, it also raises the very

sticky question of russia, whether the russian delegation will show up, or if they're even allowed to bob mcdali, he's the president of rapid edge energy group and a cnbc contributor they threw us an audible saturday morning you texted me. what do you think this in-person meeting means? what do you think is going to happen >> i mean, i don't think they're bringing it all to vienna for a minor production move. this will not be a paper cut we are looking at likely a substantial cut. but the interesting subtext story is the deputy prime minister of the russian federation, alexander novak until u.s. sanctioning now, arriving in vienna to play a role in this process

we're likely to see 'significant production cut they're not dragging a couple hundred journalists around the world for a reason >> the oil minister fired a warning shot, very public, very clear, i will not tolerate an undershoot in oil prices i think on wednesday we'll get a broad side, a meaningfully quoted increase. opec plus will probably only deliver about a third or so of real customer if it's 1.5 million barrels a day do you think this is a direct response to the not just "r" but release of pit petroleum reserves. you know that the aziz does

believe the market is being manipulated. >> he's long maintained a disconnect between the financial and physical market. i think he wants to shows there is a circuit breaker in this market to staunch the massive selloffs what does the white house do this blockbuster release is set to taper off so what is the response. >> well, it all depends on the price. if surprises stabilize here. however, if oil prices -- retail gatt lease starts heading back to the $4 a gallon, i don't know

if we'll be able to have congress pass the nopec. i think the biden administration will be backed into a corner and pull a trigger on what they've been threatening, which is restrictions on product exports. >> bob, i've got to follow up with you, though you've said you don't think the white house wants to increase tensions, maybe the white house doesn't, but members of congress do r rochanna tweeted out, if you cut product, we'll stop selling you airplanes and missiles that sounds like a ramping up of tensions. >> absolutely. the president is doing all he can to restrain both democrats and republicans in congress who could love to take a shot at opec-plus. he says, listen, let me work with the saudis.

he's trying to keep a lid on it. he doesn't want to see this nopec bill he's trying to tamp it down. to your point, brighting if they cut and prices rise strongly, they won't be able to hold back congress they'll get rolled >> i agree if we see a significant rise in retail gasoline prices, i do think it's going to be hard to hold back on product export restrictions again, i don't think that everyone in the white house wants to go down this path, but i do think if we see this rise in prices, we should watch for that policy response >> well, the whole thing just feels like it's on the verge of a major escalation i say that, because we obviously had covid, everybody went into their own corners. sudden we we come out, u.s. is releasing 180 million barrels, france and other countries been -- are doing that the saudis believe the market is

manipulated. now this production cut, with the threat of a possible white house next move, when does this end? >> brian, the other issue is we're heading into the december 5th, 6th packet of sanctions we have the big sanctions of russian olympic exports set to take effect. it looks like this is ending in a very volatile endgame situation for oil. a number of volume tile moving parts are coming to a head if you're opec or russia, and you believe that prices will be lower in a year -- a lot of people may disagree, but if you believe that, because the futures market is telling you that, maybe you want to jack prices now and maximize your revenue, because we already no estimates for saudi arabia's gdp has started to come down. >> from the saudis and uae, i

think it's more of a question of risk management. i think functionally this market is okay, you know? we thought those 3 million barrels a day. we didn't. everyone is talking about recession. it's risk management what they don't like is prices are starting to fall like a knife. to halima's point, they need to insert a circuit breaker i don't think it's about holding a floor or grabbing revenue when they can, but a signal to the market -- we will not let things get stupid to the down side here [ laughter ] >> do you think there's a chance they could get, quote, stupid to the down side? >> again, i think that's why they're throwing in the circuit breaker. i think they believe the market was more concerned about vladimir putin -- more concerned about powell, less concerned about the fundamentals of this market i think it's about throwing in a

circuit breaker, but again, you have a big opec cut. you have to watch for the white house response and we have to see what's coming next from russia, when it comes to their response in terms of supply disruption >> it's not just how much of a cut, but maybe how long of a cut, that it goes on we'll find out aren't you supposed to be going to the airport >> i'm leaving to the airport now, brian see you in vienna. >> i hope to see you there as well, bob. thank you very much. do not forget, we will be in vienna starting tomorrow we will leave tonight, ahead of the opec meeting the weather is terrible here, but it could be dramatic check it out if you think stocks will continue to rally into yearend, what do you do now we have a play book for you, but first, between food costs, labor

solarages, what is it like to run a big restaurant change right now? the ceo of p.f. chang will join us on that and more, right after this - yieldstreet presents: alternative investing with kal penn and older kal penn. - oh, the stock market is doing that fun thing again. - hey news from the future, you're going to live through that about 10 more times. (laughs)

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welcome back to "the

exchange." have you been out to ease lately this if so, you know a couple things number one, restaurants are packed also, menu cost versus gone much, sometime by a lot. some starts are not even open on some days, because they simply can't find the staff joining us now exclusively on "the exchange" is the ceo of p.f. chang's good to have you here. >> thanks for having me. 4:00, 5:00 mom, the p.f. chang's near me is packed. do you see any slowdown nationally from the perch on which you sit. >> impressed with the strength of the customer. you know, there's some pockets

of weakness. you see with, you know lower-end consumers, some weekness, but overall -- there have been pockets of weakness, for example, in california, with gas prices, there's some pockets there, but the biggest issue has been on the supply chain side, commodity pricing, especially? the second quarter, but that's come down. so a lot to contend with, but the consumer has been pretty resilient, do you notice day to day or month to month, an impact on your business does it matter to you? >> it does the consumer is very sensitive to food and energy pricing or gas pricing. so when you see being disparities.

for example, california is about $2.50 higher than the national average, and increasing month over month so, you know, you're see more p the gas prices is coming down. it does impact the traffic pattern. >> where are the workers where does -- honestly, where did everybody go i know you're out there in arizona. and almost every single shop in sky harbor airport was shut down earlier this year. there were simply no people. where do they go >> a lot of them left the labor force. if you look at the parts rates, a lot of people left the labor force, and there's a bunch of reasons for that one is there's a tremendous amount of stimulus produced during the pandemic that created a situation where a lot of people didn't need to work, to

be frank >> they had enough money and may still have enough money that they don't need to have a job? >> yeah. look at the savings rates, look at the bank account balances preand post-covid. so people were compensated well -- or there was a lot of sti stimulus, it was a real question, do i need to be before or, or are you bert off not working or doing something different. with the markets up, that created a big question whether it made sense for people to work, right? that's changing. you're seeing some improvement in the labor force, you're seeing some, you know, softening, but preand post-dough individual we're in a very different place. >> how long do you see that lasting? >> it's hard to tell it's an important question the strength in the labor market

is one of the reasons why the fed is able to focus almost exclusively on inflation you haven't seen the inflation quite collapse yet so it gives leeway to move forward on tackling inflation and keeping the economy intact if that changes, you could see it change dramatically it's something that everything should be watching, first off, a big shoutout and thanks to your people at all your stores. if they weren't coming into work every day, the chefs, line cooks, servers, bartenders, it can larry the bartenders, we would not be able to dine out. so seriously, a huge shoutout to going to work, because it makes it possibility to others to have fun and do stuff our good friend fertitta -- >> i've heard of him

>> -- you've got to compete against restaurants like that for your staff i mean, you've got a top-notch server, skilled, good with people, shows up every day, what are they making? >> well, that depends on where it's changing rapidly. you know, we have some markets where wage inflation has way outstripped the national average. the hot markets are growing quickly. it's important to stay on top of the local dynamics, the right wage depends on what part of what part of the town you're in, right? it's market by market. so we do a re-evaluation frequently, try to make sure our best people are paid well, competitive, and a lot of times ahead of the local going rate. but it's everything. you have spot on in shouting out the people who come to work and

create an incredible experience for our guests that's it, right >> you don't have -- >> 100%. you've got to keep your best people you've got to pay them well and produce a holistic, you know, employment sit situations that' one is a com, one a question -- please tell them to bring back the dan dan noodles ronnie hudson. secondly, you're launching a subscription service, $6.99 a month, deliveries, you get to, what, jump the line at the restaurant how does that work >> yeah, there's a number of perks that come with it. free delivery on every order, which in this environment can be a very meaningful benefit for people who order frequently. you get priority seating in our

restaurants. and incremental points that you accrues points more quickly, and some experientially driven, like tasting panels so it's a number of perks, a layer on top of our existing loyalty program that lets people become more engaged with the brand. >> he's ronny, so maybe you could call it the ron ron noodles. there you go. >> i appreciately appreciate you coming on and discussing it. thank to all your staff. i truly mean that. >> thanks for having me. i appreciate it. on deck, what is going on at tesla? the stock is down, deliveries have fallen short. with the mid terms in just one month, business is on the ballot coming up, a look at how the latino vote may be shaping up.

it might surprise you. as we head to break, the dow heat map, every stock is higher, but one. chevron. intel and datecaller pillar lea the way.

welcome back now let's get to stocks. finally some relief. look at that all the major averages are higher, nasdaq is up 1.7%, dow is up 700 points all of the sectors you nor higher your next guest says this up trend could continue with the potential of a year rally ahead.

john augustine -- i shouldn't call it an up trend, but i'm trying to find of good side of things, john it's a new month, a new quarter. seasonality is on our side why optimistic in the near term? hello, john? all right. john's not there caller two, you're on the line [ laughter ] first time/long time. >> first time/long time caller >> doris from queens doris from queens is asking about -- why is the stock market up it's monday, it's a new month. we have a cnbc news update for you. here's what's happening. the supreme court has agreed to hear acase on the suitability of same-sex parents to provide foster care. a catholic chaired sued the city of philadelphia after losing a contract to find homes for

abused children. the city ended the contract after finding out the catholic charity would not consider same-sex couples as potential foster parents the court refused to hear a republican-led challenge to pennsylvania's electoral map hurricane ian wreaking half von in parts of new jersey flood warnings are in effect for parts of new jersey and delaware i think shipbottom is down on what we call the jersey shore. and in southern ukraine, ukrainian forces continue to take back land occupied by the russians ukrainian affirmed forces release video claiming they raised a ukrainian flag over another captured area. and tonight with shep, was enough done to warn florida residents? that is tonight at7:00 eastern

time brian, back to you. we are going to go back to yawn augustine john, are you there? >> sully, i wore my best suit and shirt, and the video is out. >> that's how it always goes but you didn't say you wore your best pants, which makes me nervous, but anyway -- [ laughter ] >> i'm glad we connected the string with the two cans do you think this will last? >> yeah, we do there's three things on our minds, sully what's on the mind today is central banks, the thought they're going to back off a bit that's number bun, but we have to wait until october 27th the ecb is up next the second thing on our mind is earnings earnings has already taken much lower for the third quarter.

we think that's baked in we don't -- we see earnings stepping on the floor the 2.9% bar for the s&p 500. well, you know, six sectors already have lower estimates the third thing is the election. if history stands, congress changes in the election, so those are the three things. >> there's a lot of things coming up in the next couple weeks, opec, midterm elections, the fed,s closed-door meeting and the regular meeting on november 2nd if you like a company like chubb, it's a big old boring insurance company, that you don't have to deal with. maybe that's why you like it. >> short-term interest rates are up, so the pnc guys, adp as well, we're thinking of lfloat,

because they haven't had in i for years. johnson & johnson, only stock in the dow down, but again, one day. obviously they have some vaccine issues, some talc issues a couple years ago do you think the company has cleaned itself up? there's something you like. >> that's the thought, that it's stabilized itself, good dividends, probably increasing dividends, chance for shareholder enhancements along the way. do they split something out our split more out we're thinking of stabilization there. yeah, you're right, in a hot market, they're going to trail, just like they are today, but we're in it for the longer term. another name, we talk about supply chains, john, there's not a lot of attention, but port strike issues in england, which

you only care if you like english liquor they're having some issues with export because of that the stock is down 20-some percent this year, but based on the trends i see and at my home, people are drinking more these days, or have been for the last couple years unfortunately, this goes for a couple things, obviously the drop in the pound is good for them the transportation issues are not, but the flowing economy generally is if any, it's a steady exporter. chubb, johnson & johnson, and diagio we look forward to seeing you on video next time. >> thanks, sully up coming, we're going to

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all right. welcome back the overall markets are up big time today tesla is not that stock is one of the few that is down after the company reported blowout sales, missed third quarter delivery expectations, and things looking brighter for the legacy automakers, but they're not quite yet out of the woods phil is joining us with more on tesla. what's going on?

>> well, with tesla -- and we've got the full numbers in a bit. this is the indicates where you're a bull or bear, there's something to chew on, in terms of deliver yes, sir missing. it's a matter of logistics we'll talk about that in a bit first, the legacy automakers, they're all moving higher today. in market they were so beating down, most at 52-week lows keep in mind, these are in relationship to q3 of last year. production was all over the place last year, so they're roughly in line of expectations, but very lumpy still lumpy right now. you can't read into this and say gm is way up and toyota is way down as you look at the stocks today, they're all moving higher, and again most were close to a 52-week lows they have just been hammered, so it's not a surprise these stocks are moving higher.

the annual sales rate, which is what we focus on, it came in about 13.5 million vehicles. the pace of sales, not the actual sales, but the pace of sales was the second quarter the expendingations is the third quarter pace of sales. and then when you look at tesla, the issue here is, did they not deliver the vehicles because of logistic issues, which is what company says, or is it a case where they could have delivered them if they werent to deal with logistics and costs involved the bottom line is the deliveries missed by about 6%, production roughly in line we get the q3 results with tesla on october 19th. that's the next time when analysts will have a chance to hear from elon musk and his top executives about what they're seeing in terms of production and the fourth quarter outlook the expectation is they're ramping in german and china. >> you say logistics like they

couldn't get truck drivers to deliver the cars >> well, it depends -- they're not specific here. is it an issue china where there have been covitt restrictions? and then the other thing, they want to get away from the rush at the end of every quarries they put out an e-mail they wants to get away from this surge at the ends of the quarter, but it's still an shy issue for them so the eyeball tests i'm, aneck doll ate it appears there seems to be a lot of cars sitting on car dealer lots are we see shifts here >> i wouldn't go with a lot -- >> i would say more, brian look the overall inventory of new vehicles, the day supplies is still 31, 32-day supplies

norm at pre-pandemic you would be a 60, 70-day supply it's better than, say, three months ago, but nowhere close to where the industry was before the pandemic >> phil lebeau, appreciate it. a lot of tesla owners are eager for that. stocks are at session highs, dow is up more than 700 points every single sector is higher. coming up. stop stock picks but only if you leave it here on "the exchange. ♪ ♪ wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here! what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations,

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welcome back happy monday the markets are happy. they're rallies sharp ly closing out their third straight negative quarter it's not happened in, what, 20

years. there is bargain hunting to be done one day does not a trend make. is there any sign the down trend has been broken. today feels good, but what are we looking for next? >> it sure feels good. rates down i think today is the low or the final low is in. our message to clients is know your time horizon, and our indicators are at levels that have assurededly made sure attract ink -- so while there had be some filling, and looking for signs that selling is

becoming less bad versus conditions we saw in june, we think there's a set upfor an october bottom ahead of a later q4 upturn. >> well and we could think about what we would expect to see at the start of a new bull market, as our feeling is that the market has priced in a lot of the downside scenarioses that we have talked about, the process of bottoming is difficult. typically what you'll see is a high-intensity low now we're looking for a less intense low. i think it's encouraging that

industry sprekds are not as wide as they were new name -- texas pacific land, what do you like about them? >> that's the leadership area. we are starting to see some bifurcation. on the emm side, texas pacific land is a standout -- the chart is standout. here's why it's just starting to break above very important levels from the second quarter of 2021 i think there's a big breakout here i think once market conditions firm, you'll see higher highs in tpl. >> and then payc, pay com.

>> low momentum sector, positioned to turn and a new upturn you're looking for stocks within tech that are showing some relative strength. it's one of few software stocks that's -- it's corrected of late thanks very much >> take care thank you. still ahead vgts 750 residents that had to be relocated during hurricane ian it's wreaking half von on the state of florida we'll have the latest updates from the ground, next. wait, i don't do tai chi. i don't do most of the things you see in medicare health insurance commercials. cut!

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florida is home to some of the most vulnerable seniors. the nation's largest elderly care operator was forced to move 700 residents across nine communities. with el is sydney biers of brookdale senior living. i know you ghost most, if not all, of the people out how big of a logistic undertaking was that did you feel you got enough notice about the severity of the storm? >> brian, first of all, thank you so much for having me. i am so grateful for our dedicated proactive emergency response at brookdale. we have 71 communities in the state of florida, and we evacuated nine communities with about 750 residents. our associates on the ground did an incredible job having our residents to move to communities across the state, as well as to other locations. i think they did an amazing job minimizing the disruption to our

residents. i'm very grateful to them. >> what are the conditions of the living centers that you had to evacuate. are some already back, or are some leveled >> i'm really excited some of the or residents returned home last week. we are still assessing the damage to our other eight communities. in most cases, it's minor damage, where we may have to do a big of work with shingles or repair drywall or replace carpet, but we expect our residents will return home soon. >> that is very good news. we were talking earlier with the ceo of p.f. chang, which is a separate issue, labor, and we're talking about everybody went it's annoying if you can't go to a restaurant, but a totally different thing if you can't operate one of your facilities you need the staff

have you been to find the workers that you need? >> brookdale is a mission-driven organization we have increased our workforce by 12% since the beginning of the year we've had positive net hires every single month since the month of november of last year., so i'm grateful that we are a mission driven organization e. we have a culture of caring that is attractive to workers and for those who may be displaced in florida, we're hiring. >> you are hiring. so maybe we know some people might have shifted, obviously the elder care industry particularly in new york and new jersey at the beginning of the pandemic got hit hard, and for, you know, there was a lot of mismanagement on the government side as well let's leave it at that i think we know that now how has your business changed post-pandemic? >> we are welcoming new residents every single day we are rebuilding our occupancy and improving our cash flows and again, what makes me

happiest is that we are a mission driven organization. we are helping seniors with the challenges of aging and we're doing that every single day. >> cindy baier, brookdale senior living very grlad to see some of the folks going back to their homes. a few more things to do, but we appreciate your time thank you to you and your staff. we are a month away from the midterm elections, and it is no secret the economy and inflation top of mind for many voters. that includes a key demographic that could help republics in ntl cgress. those details and why inflation could turn the tide, next. 't evet to finish my burrito. technology lets you vacation in space, but to get work done on earth... you need more than technology. you need cdw. so with the cisco hybrid work environment, we can deliver the same network experience to all your offices. space spaghetti. no. securely connecting your team from anywhere. houston we... have a solution.

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welcome back want to get one more thing before we go, and that is the midterm election might have heard about them coming up in early november. a new poll revealing inflation is the most important issue to latino voters right now.

those economic concerns could have them crossing the aisle this november. a very big and growing voting block, ylan. >> yeah, absolutely brian. not only is inflation top of mind for latino voters, but a new nbc poll shows they're not happy with how democrats are handling it. the survey shows 23% of latinos put rising prices at the top of their list of priorities, and that's more than the broader public, which sees threats to democracy as the biggest risk. that's key because it appears to be crickontributes to a shift be latino community away from democrats and towards republicans. we recently spent the day following a conservative latino advocacy group the initiative sees inflation as a potential opening for the gop. >> there's no question right now that the cost of everything is impacting latino, i think in a very real way. it's causing a lot of hurt, a lot of pain, and i think the

candidate who can best speak to how they're going to address that issue is going to best persuade us, and so right now i think the republicans have the upper hand >> that sentiment tracked with the results of nbc's poll. most latinos still identify as democrats, but the share is shrinking. and brian, they gave republicans the edge on handling the economy. back over to you. >> it's a big deal, and one does wonder, ylan, if there is a shift from democrat to republican, does that shift last then for years or generations? you know, that's going to be the bigger story than just november. >> absolutely. i mean, this is something that we saw start to take hold around 2016 it's particularly apparent among latino men, brian, not just in terms of what party they affiliate with, but also turturno was higher than expected among latino men not only is this population identifying more and more with

republicans than democrats, but they're more engaged as well >> yeah, certainly, it's not just -- i would imagine, ylan, a lot of has panic vote, were probably raised catholic there are social issues as well. we can't put aside some of these social issues that we talk about every day in the mainstream media. >> so there are a lot of latino single issue voters on everything from guns to abortion to crime to immigration, but i thought it was really notable that the top two issues that latinos said were most important to them were inflation as well as jobs and the economy by far so this is something that is really sort of driving this new engagement by this population, though certainly those things such as abortion, guns, et cetera have always been there in the background. >> immigration and the economy go hand in hand. the surprising thing is -- and i am certainly am not speaking for any other community, but just from polls and surveys, there is

a lot of resentment, economically, around some of the illegal immigration that is occurring now from a population that may have struggled to get here and gain their citizenship, is there not it's not an easy issue to understand either. >> yeah, i think that there is strong feeling on both sides of this among the latino population, that's certainly true there's also a strong feeling around sort of the dreamer population and what should be done with them should there be a pathway to citizenship. the initiative has been vocal in calling for that population to have a way to become permanent residents, permanent citizens in america, but certainly not everybody believes in that so that's another polarizing issue. and i think it's really important to note the latino community is not a monolith. it's not one single voter. >> correct >> there are many different people from many different countries, that upbringing, that heritage, that culture informs their political position

both parties have a lot of work to do to sort of dive into this population and gfigure out what' motivating them. >> you're trying to do that with your data driven organization like cnbc. you watch a lot of other networks there's a giant middle ground because not all people are the same from any walk of life anywhere ylan, how ugly outside of what your main topic is, how ugly is it going to get the next four weeks ahead of these midterms? >> i think it's going to be completely brutal out there. you're already seeing so much money being spent on the ads that are on the air waves, both for the house races, senate races as well. you're starting to see the debates heat up both for the governors' races across the states as well as some of the key senate races in ohio and georgia. we're going to be there for a lot of that. >> i live in central jersey. i get the new york and philly stations on comcast. if i watch the new york stations i have no political ads. if i watch the philly stations

for football, every commercial break is some political ad for whatever it might be thank you. on the positive side of things, the markets have been taking their cue from the bond market in the past month yields have come down, they're back to where they were before the last fed meeting how about that i'm going to fly to vienna, austria now, we'll see you tomorrow and "power lunch" begins right now. >> safe travels, go do your work and we'll look forward to seeing you from vienna. welcome, everything, to "power lunch," along with seema mody, i'm tyler mathisen here's what's ahead on a busy trading start for the month of october. stocks surnlging to start this w months rebounding from those lows technology coming off a brutal quarter. is that where you're going to find some of the biggest