contest the election. >> we've heard of that tactic before. >> yes, somewhere else. >> i think it's very interesting that the business world sees bolsonaro as so much more favorable to their interests than lula. >> he has that economic agenda he's been promising that will he deliver if he does in fact win again dow up 33% here, tyler. >> thanks for watching "power lunch." >> "closing bell" begins right now. stocks having a strong start to the fourth quarter. gains across the board currently near session highs dow is having its best day since 2020 we're all about your money in this final hour of trading welcome to "closing bell." i'm carl quintanilla in for sara ei eisen. dow as we said on pace for the best day since november 2020, all sectors green, lower yields definitely helping today, ten-year below 365 check out energy as oil rallies back to 83 and change ahead of that opec plus meeting later in the week coming up on today's show,

shares of box are skyrocketing after morgan stanley ups the stock to overweight, citing bullishness around return to work we're going to talk to box ceo aaron levie, get his read on enterprise tech spending let's get straight to this strong beginning of the fourth quarter. joining us today david zervos is with us. great to see you we spoke last week it sounded like you had spent some time talking some clients off the ledge. does that get any easier today >> yeah, carl, it does a 3% up move feels a little better, although we had a pretty rough ending to the week it's not all clear by any means. the big story was really financial instability between the bank of england, between the rumors about, you know, credit suisse, and i think the continuation of this whole story of central banks trying to kind of deal with financial stability issues and at the same time deal with inflation it's got a lot of clients very

confused and rightly so. i do think they're going to separate that out. and i think at the end of the day, there's more silver linings here than not. >> yeah, we've seen fed funds come off of their highs, you know, looking at 44 now for march. two-year got within seven basis points of 4 today. do you think we have seen the peak in some yields? >> you know, i think we're pretty close to it, carl you know, i've been of the opinion that after they get to sort of something in the fours, maybe mid-fours, they're going to take a pause, have a look at what happens, and also, if they need to do more, i think they may end up focusing a little bit more on the balance sheet. i think politically taking short rates up too much starts to really get -- it starts to raise a little bit of eyebrows on capitol hill too because they're paying so much for reserves. so much money going back to the banks. it's just going to get people like elizabeth warren and rand paul hot and bothered. i think there's other ways to

pull some punch from the tables, stepping up asset sales if they need to. i think they can take the pause. they'll be able to inflation expectations look very well-behaved i don't know if you've seen the five-year break evens. they were at 208 coming down and the curve's inverting a little bit more all of that is sort of helpful to the fed's cause of having anchored long run inflation expectations, which is really. this is the goal this is what they need and the more they get that the more they can kind of look through the short-term issues with inflation not coming down maybe as fast as they want it to over the last couple quarters. >> to your point about political pressure, today the journal piece on the u.n. calling on the fed and other central banks to halt interest rate hikes stories on the tape over the weekend about brainerd and daily sort of looking at the downside of hiking too much too fast. do you think the dove hawk chatter right now is becoming more balanced? >> at the margin i would say

yes, and i think there's two reasons. one is they -- back at jackson hole had the equity market at 3,200, and now ending the quarter, below 3,600 they've done a lot to tighten financial conditions they can kind of ease back on us i don't think they liked the idea going into jackson hole that the market was pricing in almost no landing. now we're getting to the point of taking a soft landing and making it a little bit more of a hard landing i think the fed pushes back on that a little bit, that and the combination of what the break even has done. it gives them confidence it's not a pivot, carl it's not going to be like we're going to get some major change it's just that the rhetoric is going to sound a little less nasty, and i think the market needed to hear that up at 4,200 on the s&p and now they can kind of, you know, take their foot off our neck so to speak. >> right well, you mentioned stability and some of the concerns over

the weekend, especially regarding some big european banks. we want to get more on that situation, david stay with us let's talk specifically about credit suisse after the slew of social media speculation over the weekend about problems there. our leslie picker has been all over that story and joins us with the latest. >> hey, carl, a lot of concern out there on social media this weekend that credit suisse was the canary in the coal mine for the health of the financial system but based on the way credit suisse and its large banking peers are currently trading, it doesn't appear the market is too concerned about a broader systemic risk, at least at this time, but at least as it pertains to cs, a lot of the uncertainties and questions surrounding the firm are expected to be answered later this month that's when the firm's purported transformation plan is set to be unveiled when it reports third quarter earnings the overhaul itself is expected to consist of divestitures and restructuring of various units including reportedly siphoning off risky assets

analysts estimate that this process could be very costly kbw says along the order of $6 billion asset sales and divestitures could fund some of that. but there's a general concern out there that credit suisse will also need to tap the public markets for what could be a dilutive equity raise. sources tell me that's not something they're engaging in right now, but it is kind of a catch 22 because investors wouldn't want to buy or be marketed newly issued shares without knowing what the transformation plan is ask what the q3 numbers look like as a result, it's likely we will see a lot more volatility in this name until the market gets more clarity carl >> leslie, i guess something you've been talking about all morning is whether or not the market will be patient enough to wait for that update on the 27th or whether they're going to have to announce something in the interim. >> that's right, it's a very, very good question will the market allow them to do that because i maean, they're up abou 2% right now, but as they keep

getting lower and lower and lower, that becomes a much more p punitive equity race it makes any kind of financing event much more expensive. it makes asset sales and divestitures look more desperate if the market is saying we see this as more of a distressed entity the longer you wait, the more uncertainty that's out there that's the risk that you take. i have no direct evidence that they're going to preannounce e, that they're going to unveil this plan any earlier. the ceo only took the helm in july they're already doing this at light speed, three months doing a complete overhaul of this massive bank, and so i don't think you can really hang your hat on anything coming earlier that said the market is going to be quite choppy, i would guess, until october 27th if that is indeed the date. >> still a ways away leslie, thanks for that, leslie

picker watching credit suisse for us today david, i know one thing you've been hammering is that there are better firewalls in place today than there were going into the great financial crisis >> you know, there are, carl and, you know, i think our central banks have learned a whole heck of a lot in the last 14 years on how to kind of dissec monetary policy. i think they've gotten good at it, i think they'll continue to get good at it, and i think they'll do it. they will continue this inflation fight, and you know, it's not -- don't get too excited about some big pivot to save credit suisse or italy or the pension funds in the uk, they will target what's needed to kind of put out forced selling related systemic risks, and i think they've got facilities and structures that they can use to do that, but i think they're going to stay pretty committed across all of these central banks to this

inflation fight and the market should be in the long run applauding that, carl, because there's nothing worse for the market in the long run than losing anchor long run inflation expectations it's been a big message of ours at jeffries. continues to be the message today. we've got to take some short run pain to get to the long run gain, and i'm excited to see that, you know, our central banks in particular led by the federal reserve have been so diligent in their fight against making -- against losing any anchoring, and you pointed out that the politics of the u.n., the politics is only going to get worse hear they've come a long way fast, they still ahave a lot of room o the job market they can play with i think the market's going to actually in the end after all this turmoil reward any central bank that continues to be quite stalwart in its fight against inflation. >> david, that's good stuff. appreciate it as always. thanks for kicking off the hour with us. david zervos meantime, shares of cloud

software company box handily outperforming the market this year and getting a nice boost today on this upgrade over at morgan stanley we're going to talk to box's ceo aaron levie about the call, his forecast for cloud and software this q4. you are watching "closing bell" on cnbc. finding global investment opportunities requires experience across asset classes and markets. it demands an active, long-term approach focused on the potential for creating wealth and generating income. learn more at federatedhermesinc.com what if you were a major transit system with billions of passengers taking millions of trips every year?

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shares of box getting a big lift today up more than 9% morgan stanley to outperform with a target of 34, say the value is under appreciated, company will be hosting its box works event this week, and

joining us in a closing bell exclusive, the box ceo aaron levie. great to have you. thanks for the time. i'm sure you don't have a problem with the call out of morgan stanley today they do point out higher net retention, lower churn thematically is everything they're saying here in the right direction? >> yeah, we're obviously happy about the upgrade and a lot of that was kind of what we talked about in our last quarterly earnings call. you know, obviously the state of software right now is very dynamic. we've tried to put ourselves in a position where we're both driving both, you know, durable steady growth as well as increased profitability over time, and our platform is 100% focused on helping companies make the most out of their most valuable information, protecting their content, securing their data, helping automate work flows and ultimately lowering their cost of ownership, maybe their legacy and traditional systems as they move more ta to

the cloud. >> you're not immune to macro headwinds. you've talked about challenges for all kinds of businesses and all corners of the world how acute are those when it comes to box >> yeah, i don't think any company is immune that's out there right now. we're all in an interconnected economy, and what we, you know, are really focused on is helping buzzes businesses that need to be able to operate more efficiently, save money by moving more to the cloud, being able to reduce their vendor landscape by having a consolidated option for managing their most important con content. that has been a message for our customers and it's resonating quite well right now and helping customers deal with this very dynamic environment. very hard to obviously predict what's going to happen next in the market and the overall economy. we've tried to make sure that we're helping our customers in this environment, you know, get more efficient, save money, and protect their most important data >> right so implications then for your own revenue targets as investors

are rained upon with news about macro headwinds? >> i would say that, i would just go off of our last earnings call where we again have talked about that, you know, our focus is helping customers in this situation, we're able to maintain our revenue guidance that we had put out for the full year as well as improve some of the bottom line targets. so that was certainly our message in the last earnings call and overall we're really, you know, excited to continue to innovate on our platform we have a massive conference this week where we'll be announcing all new functionality and rolling out new products that will help customers both with distributed work and digital transformation and helping secure their most important content. and again, very dynamic environment that we're in right now, and our job is just to help customers manage their most important information through this. >> yeah, one part of that dynamism, i guess, is this willingness of tech companies to really get serious about costs, about efficiencies, we've heard it from google, meta, crunch base has a tally now of tech

workers that have been laid off this year. they say it's up to 42,000 what's your sense right now about whether or not they have implemented these enough or whether you think q3 earnings season is just going to be another washout of hunkered down memos? >> you know, i don't want to do any breaking news across the industry in this conversation, but i do think that there is a broad-based change happening right now in the tech industry where, you know, there was a number of years of valuations that only could go up higher obviously growth rates that were in some cases, you know, probably hard to sustain just given the rate of growth that you were seeing, greater than 100 or 200 % growth of at scale companies which were obviously phenomenal, but eventually have to come down to some degree. and cost bases that were built into those growth rates. i think you're seeing the industry really have to react to that where we know that over the long run companies are going to be measured by how profitable they are and the durability of

their growth i think companies are having to really transition to this new mode of operating, whether it's small series a or b startups or some of the world's largest companies are grappling with this new reality hard to say what we're going to see in the q3 earnings season. i do think that the tech industry is going through an evolution where you're going to see greater degrees of focus on profitability and long-term durable, you know, more sustained ways of growing. >> yeah, i wonder who wins in that scenario, aaron for example, we've talked a lot about the number of engineers that are likely getting let go just in the last couple of weeks, american express, jpmorgan reiterating they've hired a couple of thousand tech workers this year, and they're going to add maybe a couple thousand more before the year's out. >> yeah, i think, you know, if you just remove the sort of near-term or individual or isolated, you know, kind of pressures that companies might be facing or reacting to, and you sort of step back and you say, okay, what are the long-term trends that every

enterprise is dealing with, digital transformation still is a core focus area of every enterprise on the planet remote and distributed work, being able to serve our customers with better experiences. the role that ai will have in the future on business operations you kind of think of these macro trends, not economic trends but macro business trends, and they still all point towards more digitization, more modernizing of i.t. infrastructure i think you're still going to sea large amounts of growth in tech, whether that's on the startup side, you mentioned more traditional in this case financial institutions that have to invest in technology, but in every business we talk to, there's still a meaningful investment going into technology and digital transformation, and so whether you have some, you know, fits and starts, in the next couple of quarters or not, over the long run it's very clear that this is still the wave of the future, which means there's a great time to be in technology or building technology or serving customers in a tech oriented way >> finally, aaron, you know, we

love to chat with you about web 3 blockchain, nfts where quarter on quarter sales are still falling. troublesome headlines regarding celsius and kardashian s.e.c what do you think, are we making a turn here in terms of how fierce regulators are going to get? >> you know, i think there's some moves that are more symbolic in nature the kardashian thing is hard to understand how that's different than a lot of the kind of promotions that are happening, but it is, you know, i think interesting to watch that regulation has, you know, started to emerge. you know, i have a really simple way of thinking about it, which is what is the underlying thing that you're buying or selling, and does that thing only go up in value if somebody else in the future believes it has value, versus there's underlying utility or cash flow i think unfortunately in the kau case of crypto there's a lot of spaces that don't offer core utility or, you know, underlying

resource that is ral yuvaluable you'll probably have in many categories prices coming down where there's not any bottom until zero and i think the question then is what tuz regulation look like how do you staten idecide what being a security versus a commodity? those are obviously things that regulators are trying to figure out. it was clearly a space that had way too much hype and buzz >> and regulation as we know often lags the technology, certainly frustrating to some. aaron, i guess i say congratulations on the morgan stanley call it's great to talk to you. good luck this week, thanks for the time >> thanks, man, appreciate it. meantime, some comments from new york fed president john williams hitting the tape. williams saying tighter monetary policy has begun to cool demand and reduce inflation nar pres pressures. inflation could fall to 3% next year and close to the 2% target

in the next few years. let's check the market, dow just off the session highs up 868 s&p still a stone's throw from 3,700. still to come, john kilduff will join us. we'll talk about the surge in oil. first though, today's stealth mover could be a real treat for investors. we're going to reveal that name next check out some of today's top searched tickers on cnbc.com the ten-year treurishe tasy top spot followed by tesla, apple, the two-year and the s&p upworkg process is fast and flexible. behold... all that talent! ♪ this is how we work now ♪ wait, i don't do tai chi. i don't do most of the things you see in medicare health insurance commercials. cut! all the ads look the same because the insurance companies all see us the same.

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let's check out today's stealth mover, fresh pet investors are going mutts for the stock. the pet food company is hiring bank essex b bankes, a 10% stake in fresh pet in the hopes of purr-sueding the

company to pursue a sale dow's up 872 as the yields fall from that nearly ten-year high our next guest reveals where investors might be seeking safety with inflation and recession fears still lingering. the bond report is brought to you by pimco, a global leader in active fixed income

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as wall street worries about the fed's aggressive rate hikes and a possible recession, our next guest says investors should be looking at one key part of the credit market for opportunity. joining us here monica erickson, head of investment grade at double line. it's great to have you thanks for the time on a pretty good day for the tape, i guess your point is looking at ig corporates corporates, right? >> that's right. i focus on investment grade corporates >> what's the theme here, what's the thesis >> the thesis is that the fed needs to control inflation, so they have moved very aggressively very quickly. we've had five rate hikes in six months we're now at 3/4 percent on the fed fund's rate. this is an unprecedented kind of move in the federal funds rate so the fed really needs control inflation. interest rates are going up. and in that environment it's been historically very difficult for the fed to do that without killing growth, and so our baseline is that instead of the fed allowing rate hikes to flow

through the system and have the natural effect that they would have that they're going to continue raising rates and so next year we could see recession for sure slower economic growth. what do you do in that environment? higher credit quality, bigger companies, better balance sheets stronger business models and investment grade corporates. >> you think the market understands that right here? given what -- how flows have been the last few weeks. >> well, i think what the market looks at are returns, and the market's been down 18% the investment grade corporate market and again, unprecedented in terms of negative rate, negative runs, excuse me. so i think flows have been based on what's been going on in terms of the returns in the market >> all right how about it was a big weekend where we were looking again, starting to look at cds and the threats of defaults and worrisome headlines. do you think those are accurately reflecting risk right here

or are we speaking ourselves -- spooking ourselves >> what i look is at spreads in that market. i think spreads in that market are fairly compensating investors. they're definitely not as wide as they could be if we are in a recessionary environment right now we get about 150 basis points over the equivalent treasury in that market, but to your point, there have been some specific credits where there's been a lot of volatility >> right and speaking of which, how do u.s. banks fit into your playbook at this point >> u.s. banks we like. very well capital used they're more like utility companies at this point. their capital ratios have actually been brought up recently, and i think the large money center banks like jpmorgan, bank of america are in a very good position even in an environment with slower growth, and it comes back to really what's going on in their balance sheets. >> this is one thing where we're going to be on watch come earnings season to hear them

talk about risks certainly and reserves do you think the picture's going to sound much different than what we're talking about right now, at least with the banks >> well, the banks, their earnings have already suffered last quarter earnings were very bad with the u.s. banks. investment banking was down something like 50%, so from a credit investor standpoint, it's a little bit different than what an equity investor is looking at we're much more concerned with what they're doing on the balance sheets the expect is that earnings are probably not going to be that great. so we would expect more of that going forward. but at the same time, the banks have been shoring up their balance sheets, and i think their balance sheets can really withstand that economic weakness. >> other industry verticals where you think balance sheet strength is comparable here? >> yeah, and frankly it's very different from some of the things that are going on in the equity market, for example, with retail, technology those types of companies in the

investment grade corporate space tend to be companies like microsoft, which is aaa, so it's a little bit different than what might be going on with the equity where, you know, they've got more cash than they do have debt outstanding on the retail side you're looking at companies like walmart, target, again, super solid balance sheets, so while there might be volatility on the equity side, it's a much different analysis that you're doing when you're looking at investment grade corporates. >> right, you're not necessarily worried about inventories for back to school or holidays. >> right, i just want to know that they can pay us back and they've got enough cash and cash flow that they can pay their bondholders back. >> fainally we're get ago fair amount of data the next few days, the next couple of weeks are you expecting, are you calling for the fed to pause in november or do 50 and wait or anything like that >> well, today things seem to have shift added a bit the fed is going to continue raising rates. inflation is still high. you've got one print today, an

ism number that came in lower than expected. i think it's just one print. i think inflation is still there and i think the fed is committed to reining in inflation. so the probability of them continuing on the path i think is higher than them shifting paths at this point. >> it's a great way to look at the market through another cut in the diamond through the balance sheet as opposed to stocks as we talk about all day. monica, thank you. >> thank you so much for having me here's where we stand on the markets this afternoon as we've been saying, pretty good action. dow's up 851, on pace for the best day since november 2020 brazilian stocks booming after that country's elections what that could mean for brazil. and of course you can always listen to "closing bell" on the go by following the "closing bell" podcast on your favorite podcast app. and throughout hispanic heritage monthin month, we're celebrating our

cnbc contributors. here's frank del rio. >> i've been both very lucky and very blessed to be hispanic, and i wear it proudly. being a cuban refugee in the 1950s and growing up in connecticut, one of the things my parents instilled in me at a young age was a standard of excellence whatever you do, be the best at it work hard and great things will come and if i could give someone two pieces of advice, that wlde ou b it reach for the stars. we can all get there n, easy-to-use tools, and paper trading to help sharpen your skills, you can stay on top of the market from wherever you are. power e*trade's easy-to-use tools make complex trading less complicated. custom scans help you find new trading opportunities. while an earnings tool helps you plan your trades and stay on top of the market.

very tight election racein brazil brazil leading to no outright winner

our seema mody has details on why brazilian stocks higher today. >> a positive reaction to president jair bolsonaro's stronger than expected showing he promises to curb energy prices while calling into question the country's electorate system, even if opposition candidate lula desilva wins, he says he will have to govern many towards the center given the number of right wing leaders in the senate that's also prfoviding a little bit of relief for investors. the rial is up about 4.6% against the dollar, it. the rally has been more tied to the rebound in oil and energy prices than politics, but ubs and capital economics, they argue that who ever leads this country through a pending global recession, that could really inform investors on whether this remains a good trade, carl >> seema, you know, central

banks around the world are sort of in differing chapters of fighting inflation, and there are some who have argued maybe brazil got an earlier start and can end sooner too how important is that? >> that's one of the reasons brazilian stocks have outperformed is because its central bank started to raise rates late last year, very much before the fed and the ecb and other central banks around the world, and while inflation is still around 8 to 9% in brazil, it has been coming down steadily over the past few months that certainly helped bolsonaro as well who currently is the president, carl. >> i think jpmorgan the other day said maybe next time they stay pat we'll find out a hugely important election. speaking of oil, prices spiking as opec plus reportedly considers this production cut would be one of the biggest since the pandemic we'll talk about how much higher crude could climb as it gets above 83 today tesla tumbling and its big

upgrade for wells. we're going to take you inside the market zone.

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oil. and all sectors in the green right now, dow up about 3% one of the best days in a couple of years, mark i wonder what you make aft tape. is this calendar at work, or is there something bigger going on? >> i think it's a combination. obviously the third quarter in september awful times for the market we were due for a little bit of a bouncer. the vix had climbed from 20 to 30 and everything that could have gone wrong, particularly last week with rates and what had gone on with currencies happened so now we're into the fourth quarter. we're in earnings season i i haven't seen an earnings miss yet. i think we were due for that bounce we've been calling for it. this is a pretty big bounce today. >> speaking of earnings, a big topic in december was that preannouncements were a bit light. eventually we did get fedex and vf corp. and a few others, ge in and nucor. do you think that sets us up well or not well for guidance when we get the q3 prints? >> it's a great question

int i haven't seen a lot of those. the gravity of them, you mentioned fedex. that number last week was just stunning for some people i think the depth and breadth of some of those musisses are high companies that anticipated the rate rise and some of the supply chain bottlenecks i think got ahead of it. those that didn't have been walloped like we see some of those stocks we haven't seen ton of them. the market is still punishing misses that doesn't bode well if you really haven't told street what's going to happen if you miss and you haven't told the street in advance, you're going to get walloped. >> yeah. >> meantime, ism today shows employment contracting, new orders contracting and i wonder, there's some chatter that maybe finally some of the hiring freezes and layoffs that we've seen, even though that trend's a bit nascent is beginning to make its way into the surveys and eventually whether that makes its way into data that the fed really takes seriously.

>> it's clear that that has worked its way into the system i mean, the rate rises and the speed and the breadth of the rate rises as well as the currency moves have affected so many, and you're seeing so many of those other signs, right? you're seeing container shipment rates as well as the amount of containers coming into ports, obviously slowing quickly. you saw some dramatic moves up on the ten-year and other indexes. that's clearly having an effect. i think the fed is going to start thinking about the next move is that the last move? that's the question you're going to hear a lot of moves this week it's clearly bleeding its way into the system. i looked at that carmax again. i mention it one more time they were hit, i think, much more rapidly and much more intensely than they could have even imagined, and i just think that is a metaphor for what happened in the third quarter. i think that activity that you talk about is obviously happening on the slowdown in terms of hiring that we're going to see over the next couple of months. >> yeah, i think somebody said carmax was the embodiment of all

the headwinds that we've seen across industries in the past few weeks. interesting. meantime, guys, the praice of ol up sharply, helping boost the price back over 80 got those weak global pmis, ongoing chinese lockdowns. john kildoff, capital founding partner and cnbc contributor it seems like the most important thing is going to be whether these headlines on production potential cuts are actually going to come to fruition. will they? >> that's right, i think they will to a degree, carl certainly zand the saudis are leading the charge to reduce oil supplies it would appear to the global markets remember a couple of weeks ago we had the saudi energy minister crying about the futures market somehow being broken, you know, for a gentleman who's been in the industry as long as he has, i was very surprised at those comments you just had a great discussion about the headwinds that are

hitting the global economy, and that translates directly into slack global oil demand. that's why these prices have been coming down i'll tell you, though, the devil will be in the details here in the next couple of days when these numbers come out because opec has been terribly under their production quota for the past several months to the tune of about 2 million plus barrels a day. so this will only merely be a quota adjustment for the most part, but it will be the saudi production that will be closely eyed and what they step up to do so once again, you know, with friends like the saudis, we don't necessarily need enemies >> yeah, it seems like just the other day the president was getting that 100k deal, which obviously didn't go too far. what happens if we get a cut, and then president xi who, by the way, was seen without masks with his team over the weekend, activity in china really

rebounds what is the upside for oil here? is there look, the vulnerabilities abound here, carl if we do get a china reopening, of course the big question is will it last, because a non-vaccine regime doesn't seem to be a lasting solution, but let them keep going for it the northern hemisphere, winter is upon us the china reopening. this production cut is going to be an ill-timed one potentially by opec. $100 oil is easily back on the table here i will tell you, though, the strong dollar is making oil very expensive for everyone else who's got to do the currency translation. they're not getting the break in the rest of the world. and again, when opec starts to have to try and cut to prop up the oil price in the face of severe economic headwinds, they've had a difficult time with that historically so i wouldn't get too overly concerned about it but certainly here there's going to be a lot of anxiety rushing into this market now as we get into late october, november, december, and we have to sort of really assess where we are in terms of global

winter fuel inventories. and if they end up being okay, though, and the winter ends up being, you know, moderate the prices will come back down again rapidly. >> such a key point, john, as we've been bracing ourselves for this coming buwinter, seems like forever now. we are getting news out of the crypto space, our kate rooney has details on that. >> hey there, carl, that's right. another government agency warning about potential risks in crypto this time it's the treasury department's financial stability oversight committee. in a new report out today, f stock as it's also called saying crypto assets could pose a risk to u.s. financial stability if their interconnections with traditional finance or overall scale were to grow without adherence to or being paired with appropriate regulation. that would include existing enforcement of the existing regulatory structure the report goes on to say that the scale of crypto asset

activities has increased and so has the overlap with wall street right now they say those are relatively elelimited but it cod increase rapidly stablecoins are the cryptocurrencies pegged to the price of a dollar. it does note many of these are backed by traditional bank assets like treasuries short-term debt. they point out more traditional wall street firms now offering crypto services. it does say that some players in the market here are opaque it calls out a lack of transparency and makes some recommendations as well. it asks for more enforcement, more work between state and federal regulators, and then reducing some of the regulatory gaps it sees potential regulatory arbitrage as well. it does ask congress to pass legislation but f stocks stop short here of backing any particular bill or endorsing any of the bills that are heading to congress eventually. back to you. >> what a day for crypto oversight. kate, thank you. kate rooney. shares of tesla under some pressure today after missing wall street's third quarter

delivery estimates the ev maker blaming for the disappointing numbers. traditional automakers higher after reporting quarter ly sales in line of estimates tesla may have missed on delivery but the production was pretty close what are kpexpectations >> the expectation is they're going to deliver 1.36 million vehicles this year so far they've delivered 907,000. you do the math, it means the fourth quarter they've got to come up with about 450,000 vehicles, and for them to do that, to go from where they were in the third quarter, that would be about a 24, 25% increase in production we know that texas, germany, and china, the plants are all ramping up production, but that's a big increase. it will be interesting to see whether or not one of two things is going to happen analysts are going to bring down their estimates or we get some sense from tesla what they report earnings in a few weeks that, yeah, we think we can hit

450, 425 in terms of quarterly production >> mark, i was thinking of something that morgan stanley asked earlier today. are we sure the problem is only supply and not related to demand it would be unreasonable to assume that the company was not exposed to at least some decelerating macro growth. >> i think you got to think that i mean, we saw, as you know, used car pricing and supplies for new cars almost fall off the cliff because of supply chain. i don't know about you, but i watch a lot of tv this week, watch a lot of football. there's a lot of ads for cars on tv zero financing there is more supply out there obviously a lot of people are buying the three, which is what i would say is kind of an affordable luxury car for some people a lot of those people are watching their 401(k)s shrink, and watching their account shrink that's got to affect demand. what we haven't talked about is elon musk funded his potential

acquisition of twitter by selling a lot of stock. he's probably a little upset with the stock price here. boy did he sell a lot of the stock at the right time. >> that's a good point, very good point certainly inventory is much higher in q3 than they were q3 a year ago phil, thank you. that's our phil lebeau. wells fargo getting a boost today. goldman ups that stock to buy from neutral, raises the target to 48. analysts say the bank has an under appreciated earnings growth story due to best this class revenue upside interesting call here, mark, because a lot of the research has been about operating leverage and which banks finally have a couple more levers to pull at least say on spexpenses. >> yeah, we know wells fargo has had many, many issues over the last few years and decades, frankly of the investigations and some of the amelioration they've done for some of the suits that they've come up with. i think -- listen, i think there's a lot of pessimism with the banks. obviously there's been a lot of

fear about loan quality and loan growth and what's going to happen now a lot of it is probably baked into these stocks right now. i think you got to look at these third quarter reports. we saw some fear when jpmorgan and others reported their second quarters the earnings, the first ones to come out when the reports come out in the next few weeks. i think we see any whiff that it's not as bad as some people thought, these stocks are priemd f primed for going a lot higher. >> it's kind of hard to go back and cue the memory about this past summer. a lot of that was about the reversal in reserve flow and whether or not that was prepping us for a day when delinquencies would finally start to bite. there hasn't been, i would argue, huge evidence that's going to be a problem in the near-term anyway. >> we haven't seen it. you're seeing some of the news out of the low fico scores and what you're seeing for some of the credit card data some of the things that you're describing we just have not seen yet. i think jamie dimon likes to get ahead of the bad news so he can get ready for the good news.

he hasn't spoken since that bad second quarter report. i wonder if that's a sign they've gotten their house in order and the bad news may not be over, but it's not as bad as he feared. >> that's a good point we're going to watch that obviously at the front end of earnings season. as we wrap up this session, dow up 26, 750 points off the highs of the session but what do you think is going to be the important dynamic to consider over the next couple of weeks? we're going to get jolts tomorrow we've got a jobs number coming obviously yields are important to watch, but how do you think the market is prepped for a month that it at least could unwind some of the september weakness >> i see the vix still at 30 there's just a lot more fear than we saw going into the june report, obviously we saw some of positive news in the stocks july and early august, and that quickly got erased in september. i'm looking at the political landscape as well. some of the things going on in russia, obviously, that we got to make sure we watch this guy

they're clearly doing poorly in ukraine. as long as that rhetoric doesn't heat up, the market's really found, i think, everything that could go wrong with it we get a whiff of good news on earnings and balance sheets are okay the fourth quarter could be a little surprise to the upside. we're certainly closer to the end of the rate rises than the beginning. i think we're sitting ourselves up for a better end of this quarter. once we get all the bad news out of the way i'm not saying we're going to thrive in 2023 and we're back to the races, but just a little change in tone will be a big refresher for the market and everybody's pessimistic, the short interest is higher the vix index is higher. that sets up for a good backdrop for a relief rally. >> you're right about sentiment, definitely got ugly in the month of september mark, really appreciate your insight today on a pretty important day for the tape certainly an important day for the beginning of a new month and a quarter. thank you. mark lehmann joining us from jmp securities. we're going to wrap up this first day of october and q4 with

some decent gains, not quite the 900 points we had earlier in the session. dow's up 760, s&p reclaims 3660 early in the session and managed to tack on a little bit in these last couple of hours south of 3680 let's fwoet jget to the judge ad "overtime. thank you very much ask welcome, everybody, to "overtime," i'm scott wapner we are just getting started hear at the new york stock exchange in just a little bit i'll speak with top ranked retail analyst matthew boss on the stocks most at risk as inventories float and margins fall we begin with our talk of the tape today's huge rally and a most unlikely believer in an even bigger bounce. eric johnston who's been among the most negative market watchers around calling multiple times as recently as ten days ago for an even steeper drop no stocks now an apparen