themselves. they have a 16% free cab flow year and 8% distribution yield and shareholder friendly. you can sell calls and get nice premium instead of trading it. >> viper, xop and other holdings. thank you, see you soon. >> after a very big day, on wall street, we will see what the tomorrow holds. i will see you back on the desk. october surprise, stocks surging out the gate to start the last quarter of 2022, rates dropping sharply as hopes for a left -- they start raring up. is in the case of bad news is actually good news and can this rally hold. opec, -- what it means for oil prices and that data point that everyone is watching, inflation. tesla gets us toed, credit suisse bounces off record lows,

headlines driving the stocks and the trades behind them. i'm this is fast money live from the nasdaq market site in the heart of times square. we have dan nathan to the left, guy, karen and julie. we start with a major rally to kickoff october and q4. the benchmark index is rising more than two and a quarter percent. s&p up 3.1%. meanwhile treasury yields drop to the lowest level in nearly two weeks falling between 3.6%. you got to remember, 4% last wednesday. the moves after the do you and s&p wrapped up their worst month since the start of the pandemic. is the stock market rally just an oversold bounce or is there some real reason to be optimistic. dan nathan, you are here with me. that's the question i'm going to pose. i want to start about the

nasdaq. a broad based rally in the nasdaq. a chip maker beaten up a bit. s&p is oil names pushing the index higher. >> it's interesting. great to have you here. let's do this thing. it was an interesting day in the market. you encapsulated a lot into the program here today because there was like a tale of two markets in a way. when you think about what was driving the s&p 500, i think waking up and seeing a 6% gain in crude oil and stocks following through for that, really important here, then back to the nasdaq, it seemed to be all over the place and took apple a little time to get going here. that was one that was on our radar, last week or so but here is the most important thing, we had the s&p down 9% last month alone, the nasdaq down 10%, things felt ugly, both indices

closed at new 52-week lows. this reversal in the 10 year treasury yield, 4.01% last week trading as low as .6% today, the dollar coming in, it doesn't set up for a great rally, we might get 5% or 6% off of these lows, when you think about yields down and crude up that spokes to stagflation welcomes reseeing earnings estimates come down strategists throwing in the targets heres you know what the i mean you may get a little bit of a run here, it's not just one that i would chase. >> you are in the camp of bad news is actually good news and you are watching that rapid decline in rates. it's hard to say it's rapid but on friday we were 20 basis points higher today we fall 20 basis points. is that what is driving the market in your mind? >> one thing i look at is the five year five year, what are the five year forward expectations of inflation, five years from now. that is come in quite bait.

i think, you said is this rally because the market was oversolds yes, there is this rally because people think the fed eventually will cool sooner than later or pull back. you are think yes to that too, because inflation does seem to be coming in. that is the hold, sot of crux of what the fed is doing. we have to fight inflation, to the ebb tents it's coming inning we are closer to the end. both of those things were part of todays rally and maybe we will get, dank you said last week, 5% rally up or down, wouldn't shock you either way, wouldn't shock me either but i'm thinking we got a little more momentum to the upside. >> no shock at all. i are been watching the nasdaq which is more broad based. s&p is all oil names at the top. you see it in a name like old dominion freight lines pushing

the nasdaq higher not a kind of stock that you think about when you talk about the nasdaq. >> when the i wake up in the morning, i'm shocked. we try to, plain things. some days you can't explain things and we don't try tom other days it seems to make sense. first day of the new eighty, there is end flows. the ism null that came out this morning was in a word disaster good news for the market and the new orders component, lowest level below 50 since the spring of 2020, was also a disaster. gave people hope that maybe the fed is on the verge of doing something. i don't think they are. innation is probably coming down but nowhere near the 2% they are longing for. it was a question of listen we had a couple of bad days to the down side, when it gets to 34, that's an inflection point. that happened last week as well. by no means do i view this as

particularly bullic long-term. i do think we trade 3400 in the s&p, i think t happens by the epidemic of this year, by the way, coming very quickly. and i think it's just a matter of time before we get there with dan's point can we points bounce first? absolutely. 3 to 5% would be perfectly normal. >> bare market rallies happen all the time. what is important to note is we are not being driven that enough off of the fundamentals, what is going to be critical is how this earning season goes downs not so much for the earnings themselves but the forward guidance and level of business confidence that's out there, that's critical in terms of how holiday is going to look for the consumer but also business invest moment longer term if people are concerned about it inflation, do they accelerate their ordering patterns or hold back. that's critical to

understanding the direction of this market. less so the emotions that seem to be happening in the last 1 or 10 days. >> today we got a few data points how important do you think the dollar is to the narrative in the stocks, for q4 as we go forward? >> extraordinarily important. microsoft warden on a higher dollar -- warden on a higher dollar. the dollar has gone up since. you are going to hear more companies i would assume if they don't warrant on currency, they would lose eps or revenue os p the back of currency. we are in this point where you are seeing a back and fill. we saw the same type of move back this june. it's predicated on the hope again that somehow this fed pauses. they have given no indication

of that happening. everything that's happening now in terms of the miserable numbers is what they want and what they need and unless credit falls apart which we haven't seen, i don't think the stock market is something they are all that concerned with. >> i mean listen, i would say there is a good chance that they pause towards the end of the month especially if you see data like this, as it relates to the banking system. i don't think there is systemic rising right there. again, the last piece of this puzzle, if unemployment starts to tick up, maybe that's the the people thing that the fed is waiting for because i see what karen sees and guy sees, if we see acknowledgment of corporate profits slowing and profit margins, if they are to be coming inning maybe the fed has done a lot of what they are meant to do and maybe this quick reversal in the ten year

u.s. treasury yield is signifying growth is in fact slowing. we are going to get that september job's number at the epidemic of this week. a week before the mid terms. we talked about this a little bit last week, if there is a trial balloon floated if the fed may go fifty basis points, futures tracker, it is coming way back in towards a 50 basis point hike, it was very much leaning towards 75 just a couple of weeks ago. towards the end of this month if earnings are not or guidance is not as bad as expected but we are starting to see that weaker data, also inflationary inputs come in, i could see a fed pausing towards the end of this month. >> where could the s&p be headed as we move into 2022. >> carter. >> frank, thanks so much. i mean i think we know this

there is this hope right that because the dollar is crack a bit and yields have come in, somehow the s&p is off to the races. dollar lower yields lower and equity lower. we know how well defined lines have been, the bull case, not mine, look at the next chart, we were to have another rally and that rally takes us right back to the down trend line in effect since the january 4 high. that's your premise? you are talking 8% up from here. the bear case that we crack, we don't bounce, put in double bottom. we are heading down into the 3300 plus minus level. i think that is the scenario that's likely. but we certainly know there are a lot of people on both sides and it will be determined one way or the other. let's talk about yields, that seems to be the thing the flavor of the day.

this is a very minor short-term chart, since august on and the dip in yield leaves us right on trend. could we go a bit further? look at this longer term chart and then quickly to the final chart, what we have is a dip that leaves us almost back to that spike high of june. the real question is, are we headed materially lower? i think so. i think that that would be considered on the surface a positive, it going to be interesting quite the opposite. >> carter, your point of view is the bare case, s&p falls 10%, is key to that interest rates continue to climb or other things that could make your bare case turn out to be true. >> i'm saying you reached the point where you are going to have interest rates not go higher and equities realize it's for wrong reasons and equity lower as well.

>> it's interesting carter is obviously really good at his job. i was wondering does the bounce scenario mean the other scenario doesn't happen and wondering could we see this bounce first and then the down lower past that trend line and quite a big fall from a bounce, that absolutely could happen. i guess, my compass, i'm always long and more optimistic and i think that if rates do go lower, that will be inherently good for stocks. i think that it will be particularly for the high fliers who have been decimated. that's not my in my portfolio

but some what the of a floor for those stocks. >> i think interesting point, to me, carter's point is fundamental and if interest rates are decline because the fundamentals are deteriorating, that's inherent for equities. i agree that there is so much desire to take the bottom and that seems to be what christ all of these rallys that this idea we reached it and all going to jump in all at once. we have to let the fundamentals play out. it's important to keep in mind the rally we experienced over the last two or three years fundamentals were good but a lot of it was valuation driven and connected to low interest rates. we are not at a point where equities are that cheep. it's hard to get enthusiastic went you haven't had the capitulate where you vant

thrown out the baby water -- >> capitulation is a big word for this market. are you agreeing we have a good ways away from the mom of capitulation. >> i'm not suggesting today was panic but you have seen, typically we associate a panic with selling since january or so, you've seen panic buying four or five different times. i don't think we have seen capitulation to the down side. there is a misguided belief out there, somehow if the fed does pivot, all our concerns are going away. that's no the case. we are in a period of slowing revenue growth, slowing earnings growth and how much you are willing to pay for this earnings in this environment, we are still too expensive. earnings are going to come down. we are seeing a slowdown before

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welcome back to fast money. shares surging after the company reported pro dust and delivery numbers for the latest quarter. >> the reason the stock is moving high ser because of the production numbers, we will talk about that in a little bit. hear is the latest numbers. deliveries in the 13 quarter of 6584 vehicles, the guidance was for 25,000 vehicles, q1 to 2, to 3 the latest numbers, 7363 that's an increase of 67%. they need to come out with 10,687 vehicles in the fourth

quarter to hit 25,000, that's an increase of 45%. there is optimism they should hit that mark. shares of riverrion moving higher. tesla, completely different story, the company missing q3 delivery estimates by 6%. delivering 343,000 vehicles , the street expecting 364s now they did produce 365,000 vehicles but couldn't deliver all of them because of the cost of logistics, issues with that for the surge of deliveries at the end of the quarter. as you look at shares or annual deliveries from tesla, keep in mind the estimate is for them to deliver 1.36 million vehicles this year. they will have to have a healthy increase in the fourth quarter. q3 auto sales, gm, hyundai, toyota, all in line with expectations, remember it's in comparison to 13 quarter of last year, that was a lumpy quarter in terms of production.

the stocks got a boost today. keep in mind they are almost at or near 52-week lows. >> riverrion, have to hit 10,000 more vehicles. everything thinks they can do it. what is you take? >> probably and they probably will. they are selling into amazon. if we think about what tesla just dids they missed their delivery number. they didn't misthe number of cars they supposedly made. when you think about the difference here, tesla is selling to a consumer, that is basically buying a very high end car, they have to do it outside of the u.s., predominantly for growth. they are dealing with the strength of the doctor. all the other supply chain issues, take them at face value. it's like getting involved with tesla, seven or eight years ago now and a scale, they have a whole host of problems here.

i don't see tesla hits that number. the way tesla closed today, this was something important for this stock, in this market cycle here, especially with the nasdaq and s&p surging, the 5th largest stock in the market here, six or interesting like that here, closing near the dead low. it's something fund mentally changed. we had this ai day last friday, it was a bunch of non sense. this stock probably heads back towards those lows from june. >> i'm going to ask you what better time to sell the consumer when we see surging gas prices, a huge secular trend that you would think would push people towards electric vehicles. >> i'm sure they have gotten some kind of a boost from there. it's still an expensive car. you have no good tax credit. broadly speaking, it's an expensive car. i agree with dan, the supply

chain has gotten extremely complicated. they have this cute little robot. it's the same as facebook with the meta verse. we are going to dump a bunch of money into a business line and doesn't make sense and we have no idea what the profitability is. it's just a distraction. >> will the more fast money to come up here. crude cruising higher. considering the largest cut since the start of the pandemic. could that send oil gushing back to triple digits. plus, a crisis of confidence at one major european bank shares of credit suisse hit all time lows. can the firm weather the storm. we break it down. you are watching fast money, live from the nasdaq market

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welcome back to fast money. number prices jumped today. traders betting opec plus will cut production by more than one million barrels per day. the fallout could be bullish for energy prices, patrick is gas buddy's head of petroleum analysis. man opec plus, roducuts you believe it could reach those cuts could

leave oil to reach $100 a barrel. we are about 85 bucks a barrel. >> we certainly are, keep in mind how tight global inventories are made. the u.s.s. 180 million barrels of potential future demands that administration is going to have to refill that. global inventories crude oil remain extremely tight because of the risk year for consumption, a return to precovid levels or close. opec is very much ahead of this, they are doing this likely to send the decline and could be a pro tracted long slowdown. >> we are talking about a slow down. china hasn't fully re-opened yet. how does a fully opened china change the narrative. >> china has been shutting down more often than not. once china starts to re-open on

a permanent basis, you can expect the oil consumption to go up like we saw in the u.s. last year, when american motorists had cabin fever. that is something that could keep oil prices going up as we approach the end of the year. russia's invasion of ukraine, oil use as a replacement, to heat homes. moving into the fall and winter, oil is going to have more strength than what we seen in quite sometime. >> patrick, i agree with you. the crude move has been interesting, 135 down to levels we saw a week or so ago. so much is people front running potential demand destruction on the back of everything, slowdown, globally. we haven't seen that demand destruction. at what point do people say that's not coming and your

scenario plays out. >> exactly to you point, there has opinion a lot said, gasoline demand is going to soften up. we are seeing the onset of an economic slowdown. look at gas buddy data. gasoline consumption rose close to 2% week over week, a lot of that could be because of hurricane ian. consumers are not really slowing down. as california prices exploded to over $6 a gallon, we are not seeing much of a slowdown in consumption. we are not going to see the typical fall off in consumption. >> patrick, it's karen. thanks for coming chance that are we going all out, any room there? >> reporter: i think there is room for potential.

oil prices sagged and under pressure, we have seen the rig count respond by slowing down. there is room for improvement. pessimistic as oil prices have fallen. if opec shuts the down, that could open the door for u.s. drilling going into the winter and spring. >> gas buddy's head of petroleum analysis. we appreciate you being here. >> we heard what patrick oh broke down? is oil going to have to move higher from the cuts and in europe they are going to need more energy. >> listen we spent a lot of time talking about natural gas and what that could mean for the european economy. as we gotten through the driving season, this one is a little tougher, especially when we have china and the fits and starts with the lockdowns and what that economy is doing right now. i'm just not particularly bullish on oil right now especially if erg we talked

about so far really speaks to a weakening u.s. economy which is right now doing far better than almost every other developed economy in the world. i'm not looking to play oil from the long side. i would rather look to see things massive secular shifts, technology and i can look out one or two years and i think there has been generational reset, whether on valuations or whatever. that's what interests me. playing oil here, listen, pre- pandemic we thought this was a dead bang loser for the most part. i don't know why this is one i want to come back right now when we are not in the roaring 20s. >> is this a case where the u.s. consumer comes in and starts spending money on gas, driving for the holiday, heating homes and things like that that might be a reason for prices to continue to spike? >> is that to me? i couldn't hear it.

>> it depends. depends our everything else is going. where err inflationary comodties are and where they are employed. i don't have a lot of clarity there. sticking in the oil space, shares of petro brass spiking as the former leader holds a narrow lead if the country's presidential election, options traders are seeing upside ahead. over couple of hundred thousand contracts trading there. the trade interesting to me was the november 151719 call butterfly, somebody purchased 3500 of those, buying the 15 strike calls, selling two of the 17s and buying one of the

19s, targeting that short $17 call strike price, 3500 times laying out $100,000 in premium. the bet is that pbr could rise north of 20% between now and november expiration. >> for more options, tune into the full show on friday. latest of credit swiss' day. a big day, shares of the cloud stock surging as they are seeing value in the stock, we will talk about what had them so bullish when fast money returns. thinkorswim® by td ameritrade is more than a trading platform. it's an entire trading experience. with innovation that lets you customize interfaces, charts and orders to your style of trading.

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welcome back to fast money. shares of credit suisse rising after briefly hitting a new all time low, liquidity concerns surround the company. leslie joins us with more on the situation and what it could

mean for the big banks in the u.s. >> reporter: executives sought to dispel the notion that took fire that the firm is on the brink of collapse. a lot of conjecture and rumor considering to the vortex of fear. amid stock price and spiking -- the ceo sep out an internal memo on friday. in it he said quote i trust that you are not confusing our day-to-day stock price performance with the strong capital base and liquidity position of the bank. sound familiar to some that language is rappinis standpoint of the financial crisis when banks ceos tried to go to the public and assuage counter parties and investors that their firms were on stable

footing only to go under shortly after. unlike the financial crisis, the banks had faulty mortgage backed securities it's unclear what the if anything could cause credit suisse to face issues. based on available financial statements the firm has a respectable 13.5cet one ratio, the measure to with stand distress and a 13 of the assets in liquid low risk deposits and securities testimony big question mark is this transformation plan set to be unveiled when the it reports 13 quarter earnings on october 27th. the overhaul is expected to consist of divestitures and restructuring business units and resave phoning off the risky assets into a bad bank. analysts estimate this could be very costly and with where ex-

spec bonds are trading perhaps more soful >> first things first. i have been a consultant for the last six years. i work with a lot of committed professionals. this is not a staged comment. they exist to serve customers. and solve complex problems. when you have a situation, if you are watching twitter all weekend you would have thought it was september 2000. leslie report doesn't feel like that. the liquidity situation, relative to what is going on doesn't seem to be the case. when you think about u.s. banks, i head him say it two hours ago. maybe some of the regulation we saw in the weigh of the financial crisis did their job.

the way the banks traded today, jp morgan, didn't make it feel like there is something brewing in the opening here. >> better capitalized. we were talking earlier, you said with credit suisse. it gist you pause. >> it's concerning. i'm triggered, i worked at lee map lehman brothers -- i think there is a tiny concern about that. this has, this firm has a history of trying to restructure itself and improve itself and a solid private wealth management business but in investment banking more of a struggle for that business. if you look at the fundamentals it's concerning the way they had to try to improve themselves and be more competitive with other firms. you wonder about how easy it is to retain talent, maintain talent which is so critical to

these businesses. for everyone it should give us a little bit of pause. i agree from a liquidity -- doesn't appear to be at great risk. what else could be brewing in terms of what is on prime brokerage. >> karen, do you making anything of this it could impact our u.s. banks or concerned about the broader group of european banks? >> the one thing i departments like to see was how credit suisse debt was trading which was not well. that sort of a concern. banks are suffrage ill structures, if you think there is a problem that could create a problem which is different than an industrial company where that sort of perception isn't as important. i feel like what the u.s. banks, the balance sheeting capital, structure is now and the amount of reserves they

have, this is a very different situation than 2000, i would never say never but it's not my highest concern right now. i'm long the banks. i like the space. the sell-off has been way overdone. >> much adieu about nothing or are you paying attention. >> you have to pay attention. what is interesting, again not to pick on credit suisse or deutsche bank, these are two banks stocks made an all time high in 2007. they have been going down every since and i find it really interesting and almost something should be investigate the news over the weekend came out giving shorts a huge opportunity to cover. look at the price action today in both deutsche bank credit suisse, 370 basically 939 this morning, spent the rest of the

day going higher, deutsche bank the same. to me it reek of interesting putting stuff out there over the weekend in hopes of being able to cover a short position. i will throw that out there in case anybody is listening or watching. is it systemic, i don't think so but problems brewing for quite sometime. put on your gloves, time to box the one two punch analysts say this stock can deliver to have a knockout years. we are celebrating our teammates and contributors here is the ceo of schwab asset management.

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welcome back to fast money. climbing 9% after upgrade from morgan stanley. the cloud company's higher retention as key for handling a post covid work force. the stock has 25% upside from the close. julie that note highlights their partnership with microsoft. what is your take? >> they are successfully competing a good pivot. trying to embed in the work flows and so the lower churn is evidence this is the strategy is working. the other thing is they are having their salespeople talk about the cost savings box can give you rather than a revenue lift. in a tougher economic

environment that's going to resonate with their customers and less expensive software sale. they are well positioned to weather the storm. >> one thing to note on previous earnings, they flag currency risk from the rise in dollar. >> that's out there. if you are a technician out there, look at where we traded down to, traded down, took a look at the lows. dan can speak to this. four timessish, revenue it's not ridiculously expensive especially where a lot of these names have been or currently are trading. it's something to trade from the trade long side again for sure. >> shares up 9%. coming up, are diamonds an investor's best friend. the world's first diamond commodity. that interview is coming up

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$.2trillion in market value, diamonds have not had their own regulated asset until very recently. the first ever diamond commodity including diamond bars and coins. the company completed a $30 million capital raise and founder and ceo is expanding the quote untapped potential of this precious resource. thank you for being here. you brought party favors. this is what we are talking about. diamonds as a regulated asset. we know they are valueel. explain the business that you are launching. >> they are the most valuable hard natural resource worth more than all the silver, platinum and palladium combined. because every diamond is a little bit different. no one knows what their diamonds are worth. what we solved using computer science, we made a singular

spot commodity, the coin and a bar, where every coin is equal. inside the diamonds all add up to a public standard and because they are equal, they trade at the same price which enables us to have price discovery, liquidity and the ability to mark to market which is what an investor needs. these are the coins. there is a diamond coin and bar. we don't set the price. the price like gold is set everyday by trading. today i think the price is $58.80. these are up 30% in the two years since we launched them. outperforming s&p by 20%. i like to call it the diamond rush is underway. >> talk about that rush.

is it institutional investors and how are they accessing this. these are tokennized and standardized. how is it retail, in the not so different future access this market. >> the clients are mostly self directed investor, hedge funds and family offices. we are building the death of liquidity to allow institutional investors. investors buy direct from diamond standard.co. at the market price at the spot. we launched the first the only nightly sports talk on local tv in america. it's the 38 sports spot. you better love sports because that's all we do market where you can buy and sell from peer to peer and give all investors liquidity. >> you been successful at everything you have done. is this something people will take physical delivery of. or is this going to trade the

same way gold and palladium and all those things you mentioned trade. >> we started at that foundation. this is a good for delivery coin which is accept to believe cme to settle future's contracts. we have that approval. we haven't launched the contract yet. so far 5% of our clients take delivery, we send this to them. they want to keep it under their bed, that's fine. a vast majority of our clients keep it at brings where we built a vault in delaware. there is a wireless computer chip that store as block chain token. while these sits in brings, everyone can trade for instants regulator approved settlement. >> you are bullish on the future of diamonds, are you bullish because we might be heading into a recession or see

people holding on to over longer periods of time past 2023 or 2024. >> commodities do well in periods of recession. we are in a commodity super cycle. commodities will trade above the moving average for 10 or 20 years. more importantly, diamonds are only now being unlocked as an asset. if you look at every precious metal, even palladium, 15% of all the world's palladium is in a vault held by investors. with diamonds that number is 1 to 2%. you have a spot commodity, liquidity with the market. futures and option approved we launched a fund and getting readied to file exchange rated product, investors will buy 15%. that's maybe a five-year secular phase of position

building that will drive prices we think substantially. >> something to watch. i want you to hold up the diamonds. you are being modest. a about a million dollars in diamonds right here. roughly, how much is each one of those coins or bars? >> through the imagine ir of math, the bars are 10 times the coin. th80coin, 50. e bars are 58,800. >> new asset class. we appreciate you being here. your final trade, stay with fast money.

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time for final trade. guy, you're first up. >> i think energy continues to rally. great having you on tonight, frank. >> i like encino, encino in. >> karen. >> happy birthday to my husband and last, who is the

beneficiary of this inventory, excess retail inventory, cjx. >> i like the fact that diamond futures are going to be listed. my mission is simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends, i'm just trying to make you a little money my job is not just to entertain but to put incredible days like today into context so-call me at 1800-743-cnbc or tweet m me @jimcramer. in thi