platforms can be held libel for the content uploaded from users. and the sentencing for elizabeth holmes being delayed because the judge is deciding if there should be a new trial. it is tuesday, october 4th maybe a bit of a relief rally. "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm rebecca quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. as joe mentioned, let's look at the equities at this hour. there are very strong gains building up. dow futures indicated up by 400

points s&p futures up 58. nasdaq up 225. this comes after the rally yesterday to kickoff the month and quarter. dow closing up 2.7%. it is back above 29,000. s&p also surging 2.6%. both indexes coming off the best single session since summer. you see a pull back in the yields the 10-year treasury is 3.6% it was above 4% last week. 3.58%. 2-year treasury at 4.01% all of the yeeields coming down. if we take a look at crude oil prices, oil is coming off the nearly 4% gain from yesterday. it is up again this morning by .60%.

wti at $84.17. all of this ahead of the opec plus meeting in vienna all this in considering 1 million barrel cuts per day. we will have more on this later in the hour. >> a sickness? a great perversion and everybody thinks the economy is so sick and so awful and the fed has to realize and realize they made it so sick and make it less sick. >> how many people said we're not going to stop? data dependent is not inflation data it is fear data. >> isn't that happening? the fear is making things better in a perverse way. maybe now the fed will get fearful and if the fed is more fearful, they do less.

stocks will do better. >> i don't know. if you think the fed will stop at this point, it is because they are concerned about market conditions that is not a good scenario. >> not stock market conditions the fed put is gone. >> market stability. >> i was with a hedge fund manager last night 50 basis points to 75. if that is the case, stocks move >> maybe only 50 >> maybe it is only 50 maybe it is 50 next month. whatever it is my point is it is a function of. >> if you are excited about a fed pivot, you shouldn't that is an indication that something is p messed up. >> we sat there and scratched our heads on delivering alpha day. we had a scary situation in the uk look at the stock market that day. i was buying medium hot sauce or

extra hot sauce. >> meaning your tacos were good. >> and friday hit us like a sledgehammer new lows were they new lows i see it as testing new lows we have to ask katie stockton the next time she's on >> she said two weeks in a row. >> this is testing those you get credit suisse and that's probably not going to turn into what we thought. it happened over there it happened here that's the kind of data dependency it is not ppi or cpi >> that's a good sign. >> it's a good sign in -- remember the fed transitory transitory tran transitory we're raising. we're raising. they need to be led around the whites of their eyes you need to see. they were this far away.

>> you call for the central banks to he's up >> i have been doing that for a while. >> the head of the world bank said it a while ago. >> because i think near term and in in in in in in intermediate term. we may get -- is it friday >> no, today's tuesday. >> we have friday and the jobs numbers on friday. we will get an idea. >> they will say it is an out dated view it is a month old. >> it might already be slowing >> with the claims number. >> we'll see >> maybe it will be. >> you know what today is today? national taco day. >> perfect for you >> that is just salt in the wound. >> you want to explain why

>> people know they watch >> you sure enough people know >> maybe they don't. >> a bet going on. >> it's done >> four tacos. he lost. markets in china still closed for a week-long holiday hong kong closed overnight green arrows for japan jumping 2% separately. bank of australia slowing the pace of inflation with 25 basis points the look at the board. cac up 3% this morning >> we were just talking about it missed by 15 points. 3,585. it got with el-erian and up to 3,350. remember june and july i missed the 3,400 that's a big drop. from 4,350 to 3,585.

that's a pretty gut-wrenching bear market. more than 20%. >> yeah. white house preparing new export controls on semi con conductors and machines to make them this is the latest move by the biden administration to deny china the ability to make faster and more cutting edge computer chips. if confirmed, it will had export restrictions in place. officials are considering adding more chinese technology companies to the commerce department black list. developing story in asia north korea conducted a missile test over japan for the first time since 2017. officials in seoul and tokyo said a single ballistic missile flew 2,800 miles citizens were warned to take cover as it flew 22 minutes

before falling into the pacific ocean. it was north korea's fifth weapons test in ten days vice president kamala harris' visit to the region and the exercises held by the united states and south korea the invasion of ukraine and elon musk facing backlash of the proposed solution. musk posted a twitter poll with the suggestions of ending the invasion ukraine cede territory to russia facing scrutiny from the ukraine leaders and its president volodymyr zelenskyy who conducted his twitter poll asking users if they liked musk more when he supported ukraine or supported russia. a change for musk who earned praise in ukraine after his starling satellite allowed ukrainians to bypass outages

there. there were a number of words proposed by politicians and the like. >> ukrainian politicians >> yes i think someone in the eu as well >> i saw a spicy tweet >> that's a good word. a lot of spicy reactions to his efforts. folks thinking he was more aligned with president putin than necessarily president volodymyr zelenskyy. >> spice is a good word. good word to start wordle with i had spice. i've had eight of nine threes. i had a three today. two is it of it is hard to get two. you could guess that sets you back you know, if you take a guess, then you are wasting a

possibility of five letters. >> we digress. u.s. district judge granted a hearing to former theranos ceo elizabeth holmes she was convicted on four counts of wire fraud and conspiracy replacing her sentencing date which is now delayed until november if she doesn't receive a new trial. coming up, more on "squawk box. the u.n. warning the world is on the brink of recession and now urging advanced economies thounot to hike interest rates. we will have former chairman roger ferguson joining us next. and a look at the pre-market winners and losers in the s&p

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welcome back to "squawk box. futures are in the green moving higher you are seeing a broad base d rally. s&p up 62 points

markets posting solid gains. nasdaq and s&p 500 adding 2% markets lost ground last month with the s&p sliding 9%. let's bring in former vice chairman roger ferguson and a c cnbc contributor roger, when is last time the world bank and other groupsz l groups advocated to stop raisin interest rates. >> i don't recall that time. i certainly don't. it tells you we are in a difficult situation and particularly with those two situations worried about the rising rates on the emerging markets and economies. >> how much insurfluence does te

world bank have on the federal reserve or jay powell? i don't know i think the view has shifted and so much fear in the economy and maybe the view is he will let up a little bit. >> i don't know it will have that much influence. at the end of the day, jay powell said what he thinks is the right thing to do which is to raise rates maybe higher than markets expected and keep them there higher to drive inflation down none has spoken to that being achieved jay powell spoke about pain. he moved away from the discussion of the narrow path to a softish landing. this is all part of what is to be expected when rates are starting to tighten. >> roger, when you look at the quote fear with credit suisse

and in the uk. even in australia, by the way, they increased the rate less than anticipated is this all a sign that things went too far too fast? >> i think it is a sign of a couple of things the uk had a special situation of poorly communicated fiscal policy by the government that is a unique situation i think what is going on in markets, they are building up an expectation of a pivot which i believe is premature the job of markets is to anticipate i think anticipating something that would make their lives better so to speak the fed said one of the things it needs to see is a tightening of financial conditions which means, frankly, markets not rallying and interest rates maintaining some of the levels they had recently and not falling off.

i think there is a disconnect with the hope and reality. >> you see the markets up on a day like today, you see hope hope is not the strategy and that's the strategy at this point? >> i think so. i think a lot of swirl in markets with the fed pivot,es set ra there will be a point when the fed will slow down with the bank of australia which did that. it feels premature at this stage. we have not seen the easing in the labor market yet that the fed wants to see we have seen weakening in the manufacturing numbers. that's not surprising. we will see what the data tells us the market is putting its hopes and fears on the fed i'm not sure the fed shares those hopes or fears at the moment >> if were you to throw into the stew the situation with credit suisse and the fears with the

bank, were does that lie >> i think that is a separate matter that has to be understood by the regulators. the question and some of this got started with tweets and activity in social media the ceo put out an internal memo that was balanced, but people maybe misread it i don't think you adjust the policy of the united states of america because of the uncertainty of a market player, if it is true, has to be dealt within a different way >> we will get jobs data this friday do you have any expectation of the data i know we are backward looking we just discussed that. >> i don't think markets softened up that much. i expect if we are lucky, we'll see a slight improvement in labor force partitcipation rate. i don't think it will be the signal that we finally got that

softening that the fed needs to be confident that inflation is clearly moving significantly to the 2% goal. i don't think the system, while softening, is not softening that much >> roger ferguson providing reality this morning may not be reality pill that someone wants to swallow, but we appreciate it. thank you. coming up, facebook closing one of the offices in new york city we will take a closer look at new demand numbers for office face. we get you ready for new opec plus meeting and production cut that is drivinupg prices this week. "squawk box" will be right back. at fidelity, your dedicated advisor

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it's time for the executive edge again welcome back facebook and instagram meta platforms is planning to close the new york city office as it looks for ways to cut costs. that stock you may want to look into that. bloomberg says it will terminate the lease at 225 park avenue and concentrate at hudson yards and penn station this follows the plan to freeze hiring and restructure teams. meta shares are off 60% from the most recent 52-week high hence the 52-week high it happened in the last 52 weeks. joining us now for a closer look

at demand for office space is diana olick. good morning, diana. i'm half full this morning instead of totally full. i'm half full. things are trickling back. it is slow going it's coming. >> you feel this day because of one day up in the markets? >> no, i think we can't be in the new world forever. some of the stuff we used to do may happen again maybe not as much. i.e., working in an office >> so you will be half full and i'll be half empty, right? >> that's why i did that >> sorry sorry. look, new demand for office space fell for the third straight month in august according to the report from vts. it analyzes the top seven markets. demand was down 11.5% in july and below half of the pre-pandemic pace. this despite the uptick last spring when companies ordered

employees back to work this report tracks new tenant tours and a indication of future office leasing vacancies are above pre-pandemic levels all but one market in the vur say of seven in the washington, d.c. saw the biggest decline in demand new york city and los angeles and seattle down 23% and 14% and 14%. boston and chicago and san francisco saw more declines. no surprise. the office reits are hurting particularly in new york economic concerns around inflation and raising interest rates are fuelling uncertainty which, in turn, may hit office demand another report from fitch that looks at how many workers go into the office shows slight improvement. it pointed to the partnership for new york survey. 49% of office workers in manhattan are in the office

which is up from 38% in april. pre-pandemic office use was 78%. joe, that is glass as half full. >> who do you have to screw loose to rent? >> they want new office space. not old office space >> if you built in recent years, you are worried. >> look at the guys doing it i don't understand it. they are still doing it. >> we are not quite like china yet with the empty buildings they have empty stadiums >> the other piece which is important that diana provides, truth is most offices are 100% is really 70% it is only 50% you think that means half the people aren't there.

you are missing 20% of the people >> missing more than 20% because you are not dealing with 100%. 70% is a hole. you cannot say it is 100%. it is 20%. >> it is slow build, diana slow build we need to check back in a couple of years. >> fuzzy math. >> yeah. it's trickling in a couple of years, we may look back some day and say we're almost back to normal or maybe not. maybe people say it is really going to be a hybrid -- if we are going to do it, diana, can we go full-on with the four-day workweek let's do it. >> offices are at three day. >> let's go with four and not work at home on the fifth. >> i know what is happening. >> i think hybrid. early work from home and work

all day long and have a three-day workweek except news. >> do we want monday off or friday off >> friday. friday >> no, we want monday off. then you get the friday and the three-day weekend and you only have four days the next week you only have four days the next week, diana. >> four days each week no matter what >> that's right. friday then. friday all right. >> friday. >> thursday's are warming up thanks, diana. we will talk more real estate with barry sternlicht. he has a lot of real estate. we'll be right back.

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good morning welcome back to "squawk box. live from the nasdaq market site in times square. futures after 7750 points in gains. nasdaq up 266 points this morning. s&p getting back some of the lost ground of the most recent down turn which really turned september into what we have been saying is a month that we like to forget. although, as i pointed out, every month is one we like to forget >> if you look at the 70 points on the s&p, that gets you above. >> you keep rubbing that in. where will we be 3,750 almost >> yeah. >> i'm happy i like it. go ahead maybe it is another one of those

things that is destined to fail. we will check with katie i bet she says that at 3,400 also, european shares of credit suisse are bouncing back after falling 12% yesterday on fears of the company's long-term financial viability. you see they are up 4.5% this morning. that is just 18 cents. that gets you back to $4.12. if you are looking at them, they are a hair over the all-time low there. three months down by 25% you should point out that f five-year credit default swaps for credit suisse fell sharply and up 40% in the last month we will have more at 7:00 a.m. eastern on credit suisse. the supreme court is agreeing to rule on section 230. that blocked many lawsuits against technology companies of third party content on the

platforms. eamon javers has the latest on this good morning, eamon. >> becky, good morning this case is 23-year-old emmy gonzalez she was one of 130 people killed in paris in the isis mateterrit terr terrorist attack in 2013 the family wants to sue youtube owned by google section 230 of 1996 says internet companies are not libel for the third party using posting on the platform. that law is coming under fire from conservatives who say social media companies are squelching content

the case here began as a lawsuit in federal court in california in 2016 alleging youtube vi violated the anti-terrorism act. the court of appeals revived it in 2021. supreme court justice clarence thomas is against this issue it is not clear how the supermajority in the court will impact the case. this could call into question the economics of posting user generated content on social media at all which is why the case is intently watched in silicon valley the court is not expected to decide the case for months there is still a long way to go. guys, back to you. >> eamon, we had questions if the legislature would step in and congress to step in and remove protections

that is less likely than something coming from the court. the courts decided to rule on it the idea of getting together on both sides of the aisle in congress and move toward something was a long shot. this is a biggest threat to the companies. >> your analysis is exactly right, becky the opinions are so opposite on this conservatives say they are suppressing conservative thought. liberals say they are not suppressing conservative thought, but spreading too much right wing stuff and fomenting insurrections. how much to you change 230 into something coherent i don't know the supreme court has suggested and demonstrated it is willing to change american society and sweeping ways. you look at roe v. wade decision recently this court is not afraid to step up and say the way things have been going is wrong. we will do something else.

the court could take a look at it here and make a change. there is a possibility of a narrow ruling that tries to rule on this case without upsetting the precedent of section 230 and all legal wrangling before you could get the court finding a way to thread the needle in a small way and not make a sweeping change. we have to wait and see. >> eamon, thank you. coming up on "squawk." the new read on the health of small business and paychecks. we talk to anthony scaramucci on the market volatility we are seeing the fed and crimypto and so much more. we are celebrating hispanic heritage month with dana >> i grew up being bilingual i have been privileged to travel and improve my language skills

today, i struggle with some of it i think you need to make your goals and your strengths work more than people fknocking you down there will be people whore a recognizing how hard you work and are looking for that

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according to the latest data from pay cchex growth has fallen for the first time since april relying on current staff to do more joining us with the jobs report and last tv interview as ceo marty mucci. you will be chairman and john gibson will take over. who will be coming on "squawk box," marty. the last interview >> i know you would be disappointed if it is not me, jan will take over on the interview and day-to-day >> okay. inflation is definitely above 4.98%. just in general, how do we look at this?

do we say great, wages are not rising as much are people getting further behind >> i think generally the fed is having the effect. the wages are moderating that is the first time it has been below 5% wage increase since april. job growth is moderated also in small businesses for the seventh consecutive month. part of it is you can't find the people best job growth in the south north carolina, florida right now and in texas and the worst cities, believe it on the west coast. san francisco, seattle, san diego. really have the least job growth of any place in the u.s. right now. >> what do you attribute that to, marty? >> you know, we are hearing people not coming back to the cities like san francisco and so small businesses are having a tough time finding people. they are just not coming back because of travel or working

remote and more remote work in california it is tough for small businesses to find people >> i wonder people not wanting to be in cities that are more dangerous than previously. i know san francisco is like one of my favorite places. it changed as a city in the past five years >> mostly what we are hearing is the travel piece of. it they are used to not having the commute. you are seeing savings coming down and also credit card debt going up so, i think there will be more people coming back into the worse force. you are seeing 60 to 64-year-olds coming back to the work force there are jobs coming and wages may tamp down a bit. >> if we go from a shortage of workers in industries, you see

restaurants that say they have no tables and multiple times they can't service them. same with hotels if it goes from a real shortage to just where is supply and demand is evenly matched, does that show up on employment report on a friday the first friday of the month? >> yeah. i think it will. sure, there will be fewer new jobs coming out. there will be more jobs because they will hire the wages, though, will show up. that is what you are seeing is the wage rates come down as more supply a lot of people raise the starting wages and now that doesn't have to be quite as drastic. you are also seeing job switchers. we saw for the first month come down to around 10% people who switched jobs were getting up into the teens and now that's coming down around 10%. wages are coming down a bit. >> is this the start of something that could allow the fed to be more comfortable with

smaller hikes and maybe 50 or maybe not as many? will you see the dot chart come down as the data is coming in the next few months? >> that is what they were after. everything you are hearing from the fed and wage rate is the biggest determining factor if you see this from the wage growth perspective, i think that would slow down a bit. >> where are in terms of different sectors of -- what's strong and what's not strong do you break it down >> sure. other services and discretionary services the highest wages. also leisure and hospitality is seeing the biggest increase. there is still 1 million jobs short of pre-pandemic levels they are getting the biggest

increases to try to get workers back into the leisure and hospitality industry and you are seeing the biggest increase of 7% from the wage perspective. those people moving up in that age range and, of course, the new one starting out will see higher wages given what is going on >> all right marty, you know, i have a feeling we may have chairman marty mucci coming on. john has a practice. are you available if he asks for tips and stuff >> i'm available he'll do a great job he has been with paychex for nine years will do great on camera. >> you can put anyone in there and say this is john >> joe, i want to say thanks to you and becky and andrew it has been great being on with you for ten years. i really appreciate the opportunity. i wish you all the best. >> you are a regular and a

friend. >> ten years we just met. >> almost ten years. >> you have to come back interest tfrom time to time >> i would be glad to. >> it's hard to leave. do you believe that? he gets tables at restaurants now. even ones with open tables countdown to the opec meeting tomorrow is on we get you ready next. you look at crude oil prices the jump from yesterday and today. yesterday was the huge jump. 4% gain. 5% for wti look at today's futures move with the equities markets. dow indicated up 1.5%. 444 points s&p up 66 points nasdaq up 2.25%. that is after gains of 2% for

all of the major averages yesterday. you can get the best of "squawk box" in the daily podcast. follow on your favorite podcast app and you can listen anytime we'll be right back. gang, we need our paranormal services to be more versatile. i know a group who can help us. not those new age shamans again. i'm talking world-class business experts. data geeks, strategists, tax advisors, the works. what about technologists? 40,000 strong, baby. we'll be able to hit our projections both fiscal and astral. this company sounds great. what do you think, agnes? looks like it's unanimous.

oil prices are edging up once again today on the expectation that opec plus could agree to a massive production cut when the group meets tomorrow the stock rallied yesterday. traders expect opec and its allies, which include russia, will reduce output by more than a million barrels a day.

volunteer cuts by members could make it the largest cut since the covid-19 pandemic. and joining us, energy aspect's founder and leader of research you said the prices were going to come back and this is the beginning of that. what should we look forward to tomorrow with opec >> like you said, i think we will see a cut of the crew, and the magnitude of the cut is still being debated. i am expecting some unilateral cuts on top of that. i do think in terms of the group in particularly, this is a defensive move and worried about the macro economy, and so getting ahead of it rather than allowing inventories to build if demand were to fall, so it's quite proactive on opec's part, but equally it's very much something he has been talking

about since the last few weeks this disconnect between the physical and financial market, he wants to provide a flaw to oil prices so there can be a level of comfort in coming back to the oil market, because right now the meltdown you are seeing in the macro space, that makes it hard to rally >> obviously the strong dollar aggravating some of that you want to explain what that means for some of the producers? >> look, ultimately the producer gets the crude price depending on the grade they sale, and you could have some grades trading well above $100, and we saw that

when the connect was $30, but at the end of the day, any grade, including saudi arabia's or kuwait's, on top of that you can get a premium or discount. the one thing to bear in mind, we have not seen a market where it has remained this deep, and the prices come off almost $30 or $40 off the highs from the last couple of months, and that tells you there is a disconnect that is still relatively strong, and maybe not as strong as the summer, but still strong in stocks versus what they are fearing. >> prices have come down sharply

in a short period of time, and in the west this is being interpreted as bowing to russia's needs to having the funding for the war against ukraine, and does that go into their thinking at all? >> i, mean, look, they do have a good relationship, the ggc and russia also, talking to the ministers, i don't think they think russian oil will disappear even after the eu embargo, and they do think the west kind of -- whether it westbound sanctions or embargoes, they believe that's one of the big reasons why investors are staying away from oil because of the government interventions, and there's an area where they think

part of the market with the physical versus the financial is due to the west's policies but the driving factors are the fundamentals and getting defensive ahead of it. >> they don't care about it from a defensive perspective from the united states and european countries. >> right >> thank you we'll talk again soon. and then we will bring you the latest on the struggling bank next, in the 8:00 hour, our exclusive interview with barry, may kmichael and richard. that's all coming up in the 8:00 hour we'll be right back.

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reliable and secure for your business. good morning buyers in the driver's seat today as stocks look to extend yesterday's gains. the futures are sharply higher once again this morning. also higher, oil prices as opec leaders and allies head to vienna to discuss a cut.

and european shares of credit suisse falling back as much as 12% yesterday on its financial viability. a look at the turn around and why the suisse bank may not be out of the woods yet you're watching "squawk box. good morning welcome to "squawk box" right here on cnbc we're live in times square, and andrew ross sorkin working along with becky quick and joe kernen. and nasdaq looking to open at 240 points higher, and the s&p up about 61 points it all seems like there's an expectation in the market that maybe the fed will ease up we will see if that's, in fact, true we said maybe that hope is not

really a strategy. take a look at treasury yields now the 2-year is down to 4.039, and that could be how the market is thinking. and crypto, whether it's the tail or the dog, i don't know which side of it it is, we are sitting up about 2%. you are looking at everything up a little over 2% this morning. >> let's get to dom chu. >> given what we saw in yesterday's trade, believe it or not, the nasdaq composite was the under performer versus the dow or s&p, and you figure 2.25%

was the nasdaq gain, and apple, microsoft and alphabet and amazon out performing the broader nasdaq trade and tesla was the disappointment with less in the numbers, and you had 2% gains from microsoft, and 2.5% gains from amazon, and tesla trying to find a bounce back mode here, 3.5% we will see whether or not this is the beginning of a bigger bounce for tech. that remains to be seen. and then the chip stocks, after a strong rally yesterday to a certain degree for some of the bigger names, we are seeing a follow-up for the s&p 500 chip names this morning you are seeing that kind of

build up in semis, but the context is, the broader index that attract semis hit a 52-week low the day prior. and one note for today, another stock that hit a 52-week low in the session, shares of dominos moved down and now up due in some part to analysts that upgraded dominos up from a buy to neutral they still see demand for domino's products, and that 52-low may be an attractive entry point. domino's pizza one to watch as one of the tea leaves on consumer spending. >> weird ran up to 550 -- is that a

pandemic play? is cheese more expensive >> yeah, i think people are getting back out -- i don't know, i still order dominoes for my kids. >> yeah, we don't base it on the pandemic >> i save $2 a pizza by ordering it on the app and picking it up. my daughter just likes the cheese with the well-done bank, and both like the garlic butter topping they put on the crust. >> that is good. you can get double pepperoni if you feel like they are too sparse one that >> i can see the meat lovers for me in the meantime, let's talk about what is going on across the pond

european shares of credit suisse what are you picking up, leslie. >> hey, andrew, if mark twain were a armchair financial crisis expert, it doesn't mean the embattled bank is out of the woods yet, while the ceo has ensured various holds are strong, and some are saying they are bracing for skeletons in the proverbial closet. it's understandable that investors would be on high alert here credit suisse nursing its billion-dollar worth of woods, and finance buyouts that have taken aim at its bottom line in

recent years, and even though it's not currently marketing at capital raise, some say they may need one and only eugss estimate the bank will need 4 billion more from the market to accommodate a growth plan or offset any unknowns such as litigation or attrition fears. if you look at recent trading of cr credit suisse's bond swaps, and the name has become riskier over the last month, but this is a case of not knowing what you don't know rather than absolute distress, at least at this point in time, guys. >> so the question is, i think we are out of the woods right this moment -- we keep talking about the october 27th date, in terms of when the restructuring

announcement plan gets disclosed, and that's the same day the company comes out with earnings, and do you think they get there or preannounce whatever this plan is? >> i think that's the question, do they preannounce the plan do they preannounce their earnings all those options on the table and i have been trying to get a sense of if their plans have changed, and so far based on the conversations i have had they have not changed the date. and it's already on an accelerated timeline they launched the transformation plan over the course of three months, which usually these things take longer to accomplish, and it will be tricky to move that up i do know there are concrete plans in the works, so we will see what happens >> fair enough leslie, thank you. we'll keep our eyes on this, of course still to come this morning,

how america's top ceos are feeling about the state of economy. the ceo will join us next to talk about the results the futures this morning pointing to a higher open after huge gains yesterday the dow futures up another 418 points the s&p futures up by 62 the nasdaq up by 237 "squawk box" will be right back. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ introducing ihg one rewards. seventeen hotel brands. six thousand global destinations. one loyalty program that lets you guest how you guest.

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so what do top uso -- us ceos, i should say, think of the latest session and 91% previous there will be a recession in the next 12 months, and only one-third of them believe it will be mild and short. joining us with more insights from the survey is kpmg's ceo, paul kau tphaup. these are pretty concerning results when these ceos think a recession is coming and only one-third think it will be mild and short, and it could be a self fulfilling prophecy or make

it worse >> yeah, the survey revealed ceos are concerned about the a potential recession in the next year, and you think about the continuing disruption, and we have inflation, and there are notes of optimism, too, becky, and they are looking to continue their transformational growth agendas, and technology is moving forward while there is concern about a potential recession, the ceos reported -- the vast majority of ceos reported on the resiliency in the u.s. economy. >> i think the statistic that jumped out at me is 51% are considering workforce reductions, and what kind of

workforce reductions are they planning >> becky, i think we learned certain lessons in the last two years, and the economy rebounded very quickly in 2020 after the recession that was at the onset of the pandemic. we lived through the great resignation. ceos are very cautious about workforce reductions, but at the same time they will consider them when costs need to be reduced because of a potential recession. i think we learned people are our greatest asset, and i believe any kinds of workforce reductions will be sector specific stories, and ones where ceos will be thinking about trying to, again, be cautious about the reduction of workforce. >> this gets to the heart of what the fed is trying to do, trying to slow the economy and put it into what they would say maybe is a gentle recession, and this gets to the heart of the

matter we are still looking at a strong job market based on what you heard from the ceos, do you expect that to continue or do you expect to see weakness in the job market, and if so how soon >> i think there remains a number of structural imbalances in the labor market, and you think about the baby boom generation retiring, and some shortage in talent and college enrollments, and the incidents of long covid which is preventing problems, and so that will cause the labor department to be tight and most ceos are facing into that, and the fed will try and cool the economy and calm the affects of inflation, and the job market may remain pretty tight going forward. >> 56% of the ceos you surveyed have a high appetite for mna >> we see that strong appetite

being present in the financial services sectors, and they are looking for opportunities to acquire workforce and build their business we have seen this consistently over the course of the last two years that ceos have this appetite to really try and transform their business over time, and the thing we have seen during the course of the pandemic is that we all try to become more digitally enabled, and more automation, and the ceos are looking for those type of opportunities >> what did they list as their biggest concerns as to growth? >> well, we have the political uncertainty, the midterms coming up and continuing pandemic fatigue, and the immerse from technology and disruption and supply chain risks, inflation, those remain prominent >> i thought it was interesting you asked them about esg, and a

lot of them think esg has helped their performance but they are considering stopping esg or rolling back some of those programs why is that? >> the survey reflected that ceos are considering pausing during the recession certain esg initiatives, and it's important that ceos and business leaders recognize the diversity and inclusion, and we expect those commitments to be kept and we believe the forces behind esg, which are employees that want to work for enterprises that are well versed in renewable energy, and it will cause a climate where we are investing in esgs, and ceos believe esgs are

improving their performance. >> are they going to pause it because they are looking ways to cut costs and this is one of the first things to go >> it's about cost reduction and in the long term the recognition that esg is improving their financial performance, certainly with the ability to bring more customers in, that believe in sustainability and also employees wanting to work for organizations that are very sustainable in nature and that are -- that believe in their diversity and inclusion agendas. >> what surprised you the most from the survey? >> in some ways, becky, given all the economic uncertainty, the continuing confidence of ceos in the prospects of growth over the next three years is a little surprising, and certainly i believe that you think about the weakness the fed is trying to create to cool the affects of inflation, and ceos are thinking about how you take off quickly

in the back end, the kind of downturn that we might have, and i don't think that's really that surprising at the end of the day. we have seen over the course of the last few years as we have done the surveys the ceos remain optimistic about the u.s. economy and the prospect for their own businesses >> paul, thank you paul knopp all this ahead of tomorrow's opec plus meeting in vienna where the cartel is considering reducing output by a million barrels a day. more on that in just a bit plus, anthony scaramucci on "squawk box" after this.

welcome back to "squawk box. i want to get a check on the banks this morning after yesterday's big rally. you are looking at citigroup up about 1.5% let's take a look at bank of

america, and looking to open higher as well, and jpmorgan, up 2% and this seems to be on the back of expectations that maybe the fed eases up you would think the opposite would be true for banks. and you would think for banks it would be opposite. >> they would want to see higher rates. >> they are in pig heaven right now. they could have a decent yield curve, but we are going into a recession. >> unless everybody defaults on their loans. i am saying when you head into a recession, you have to look at -- >> yeah. >> raise into a recession is an unusual phenomenon >> there are some yields out there, and especially in the corporate world they can do much better now

remember tina? there are -- >> 4% on the two-year. >> it has come down. >> still above 4%. 4.1. elon musk, he had suggestions for ending the russian invasion, and the tesla ceo facing severe scrutiny from ukrainian leaders that used to love him, including president zelenskyy, and zelenskyy conducted his own twitter poll asking if they liked elon musk better when he supported ukraine or russia. still to come this morning, opec to consider oil production cuts at a key meeting tomorrow

this is an emergency meeting, and we will talk about what to expect next, but here's what is happening in the energy markets. and brent up another 0.8 of a percent, and wti was up more than 5%. later, don't miss our exclusive interview with the ceo of anti-poverty organization, robin hood, richard burry aray tuned you e watching "squawk box" and this is cnbc with its customizable options chain, easy-to-use tools, and paper trading to help sharpen your skills, you can stay on top of the market from wherever you are.

let's get a check on some names that were big winners in yesterday's session and see where they stand this morning. you are looking at the market up sharply overall, andenergy was the biggest sector performer yesterday. marathon oil was a big winner yesterday. it was up more than 10%, and it does look to add to those gains this morning, about 1 1/2%

and the big winner yesterday was regeneron. last trade was 735.13, there another energy name leading the dow yesterday, chevron gaining almost 6%, and right now that stock is indicated to open up. and check out the two-year note. yields came in and behaved a lot better yesterday, and two-year is still above 4%, and right now it's at 4.035% so that has come down. >> opec plus, they are going to meet tomorrow with a possible cut in oil production. and there has not been another game in town when it comes to

investments in either more oil from different places than opec, or renewable energy. >> at the end of last year, overall fossil fuels represented 81% of overall energy consumption. ten years ago they were at 82. so all of that investment and rene renewables you are talking about, 3.8 trillion -- let me repeat that 3.8 trillion in fuels, moved consumption from 82 to 81% of the overall consumption. >> you did not say he had been no investment in renewables. joining us to talk about how this may have emboldened opec, the u.s. senator of north

dakota she's a founding member of the one-country project, and she's from a state that knows a little bit about fossil fuels i don't know how much she will push back our judge. that was an interesting point to make, wasn't it, judd, that opec is back in the driver's seat, and banks are where the money is and opec is where the incremental oil is >> yes, that's absolutely true it's another reflection of bad government policies leading to bad results. one of the great paradigm shifts in the last 15 years was the fact that the united states was generating so much fossil fuel in oil and gasp, that we no longer need to look to the

middle east to drive our energy policies, and now this administration thinks it should not be produced in the united states, and it has done just about everything wrong, and it has attracted capital availability to the oil match and limited access to public lands, and it has restricted refining capacity and transportation capacity, and it basically went to saudi -- the president went to saudi arabia with hat in hand which was embarrassing, to say the least we have given away one of the great strengths, and for us who went through the oil embargo in the 1970s, we see it as something that should not have been allowed to occur. we should have encouraged our

energy production, recognizing we are shifting to alternative energy, and recognizing that shift will take a long time and we need our oil and gas production to be strong in this country to give us independence from opec. >> what did judd just say that you take issue with, heidi, or disagree with completely >> i think we can talk about government policy as it relates to fossil fuels, and the governor ignores the principals, and opec tried to drive shell out, and pushed the price down, and if you look at profit margins, it was not there for shell at $40 a barrel, but we continue to seek investment and got investment from wall street. during the pandemic, the pandemic calibrated all of this, and then we have people saying, look, we are not going to continue to invest if we are

going to lose money. at $80, shell will be profitable and i think opec is playing a game where they will drive prices up because they need higher prices to pay for their infrastructure and government, and it's their only game in town we can debate government policy but let's put a basic economic spin on it when you go to economic -- or to energy policy, the future will belong to the person that wins the race or the country that wins the race on energy transitions. we can say we should not have made that level of investment, what have we gotten for it that's a legitimate question the previous clip you played, joe, i think that's something that every policy maker ought to take a look at and say why haven't we seen this move faster, and to the governor's point, you know, there has always been, like, the world of magical thinking, i think, on

the left that you can flip a switch and transfer this energy company from fossil fuels to renewables and not have to worry about building infrastructure, which is a huge inhibitor and not worry about paying the bills today, and this is more complicated than not leasing public lands, and you have to look at the basic economics and you have to think about how can we make this transition, because as i said, the future economies will depend on a transition forward away from fossil fuels >> 2050 we still -- i don't know, we won't be at 80% fossil fuels, but i would not venture to guess that we would be at 20%. i will tell you that much. >> i think you are absolutely right. i mean, so much of our economy depends on energy that is produced from fossil fuels that cup you are drinking coffee

out of today was probably made from some sort of fossil fuel base to it the real issue is opec doesn't like us and never has liked us you have iran, libya and venezuela and now opec plus which includes russia, and then you went over and antagonized the saudis this administration antagonized the saudis, and he goes over and asks for an increase in production and they cut production, and we should not have to rely on opec, that's the whole point. we have so much energy in this country we could take advantage of as ourselves, and the simple fact is that the basic reason production is being affected is because you have the elitist green movement attacking energy production in the united states. >> that movement is reflected in a lot of private sector stuff

not related to the government. we have an election coming up in november, and it has been pointed out that oil companies that are under pressure to return money to shareholders and to change their business focus buy pressure from black rock or from esg companies, and these comp companies, they are looking out five and ten years they are still not going to be willing to make long-term commitments of capital, where they are putting their shareholder capital at risk when it comes back two or four years or whatever. >> yeah, you are right, this esg, it has taken over black

rock and there are a lot of investment houses taking that position has dried up capital and made it clear to a lot of the energy producers, why should we go out and drill, we are not going to be use that asset ten or 12 years ago from now when it starts to return, and they are returning the capital through dividends and prepurchase of stocks >> heidi, we got like less than a minute, heidi. what about it? i don't know if i were chevron -- i don't know, i don't know what i would be doing >> i think the one thing that all three of us can agree on is we need stability and energy policy, and investors who we expect to put money into it should get a return on their investment it's only fair again, i think when you look at all of this, it's complicated by the basic nature of what

happened in the, you know, the last decade when opec drove prices down and tried to kill the shell industry, and shell didn't return investment on investment, and investors said you need to be profitable if we continue to make these investments, and it's not just about esgs or government policy, and opec has always been the lowest cost producer >> that's not true >> that's a debate for a different time >> thank you when we come back, the classic portfolio of 60% stocks and 40% bonds may no longer provide the same level of

returns as it did in the past. is it still right for some investors? sharon eper sun takes a look after the break. again, the futures this morning, watch this and check it out, futures indicated up sharply once again today the s&p futures up by 61, and the nasdaq up by 237, and this is a day after the dow was up 365 points don't forget, you can get the best of "squawk box" in our daily podcast, and just follow squawkpod. "squawk box" will be right back. what if tax rates change? ahhhhhh. filing sales tax returns? ahhhhhh. managing exemption certificates? ahhhhhh. business license guidance? ahhhhhh. does it connect with accounting? ahhhhhh. item classification? ahhhhhh. cross-border sales? ahhhhhh. what about? ahhhhhh. ahhhhhh. do you have those budget markups? thank you. mmhm. [bubbles]

box. as the stock market continues to decline, new data shows the 401(k) investors moved from equities to fixed income last month, and is the classic portfolio still right for retirement savers? that question is out there, and sharon epperson joins us with her perspective. what do you think? >> some investors are tired of seeing losses in a retirement account, and in september the vast majority of daily trades

and 401(k)s. >> we saw people taking it out of stocks and moving into bonds, and it was not surprising it coincided with the time the market fell. >> investors sought stable in stable value funds and investors moved out of target date funds which are designed to invest more conservative as you get older, and large u.s. equity and mid u.s. equities also saw outflows and the 60% stock and 40% bond portfolio have gone down this year, and with bond yields improving, that look looks better than in years

and cash may not be a bad place holder >> a classic return from a money market fund is not a horrible decision, and would i advise it for clients in the long-term, no will it hurt them in the short term i don't think so >> that's not a recommendation to cash out and capture losses, but for some investors it may be a viable option for new money for now, andrew. >> okay. now the question i would ask you, though, if retirement savers are looking to make some moves, what do you suggest they do >> you want to be tactical in your asset location, and shift to growth and dividend paying stock funds, and look for more opportunities with bonds and looking at durations for up to ten years and those yields and this could be true for older

investors who are closer to retirement or already retired, but younger investors should be heavily invested in stocks, so you may see a 70/30, and they may consider alternative companies, and there are other opportunities to look into as well and people don't want to lose money so it's hard to stick to any plan for investors, and if you have a plan that identifies your risk and has certain goals in mind for you, you need to try and stay with it >> okay. thank you so much, sharon. >> sure. up next, sky bridge capital's anthony scaramucci talks about what we are seeing in the markets and more. we are up sharply after gains yesterday. in, futures up by about 400

potsand the nasdaq up. we'll be right back.

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check out big tech this morning. alphabet, meta and amazon and microsoft up nicely after yesterday's big boost. you can see, it reflects a strong rebound we'll see how long it lasts. cruise lines also gaining steam. you remember, we -- that's about

as close as we are going to get. when we were delivering alpha -- 50 feet away it was the lounge where they had broadway plays and everything, and that's about as close as you are going to get to >> yeah. >> yeah. >> your cruise ships have sails. >> i don't think andrew's a cruise guy. >> i'm not a cruise person not a cruise person. not at all let's take a look at what's happening in the marketplace anthony scar muamucci is with u. his latest book is entitled "the genius olgorand. what do you think is happening here we're looking at green on the screen and we keep hearing all of this bad news i wonder if it's the perverse sense the news is so bad that

maybe the fed decides they don't have to make it worse. >> andrew, one of the things we look at is the long-term break-even inflation rate on the tips and so if you look at the 10-year tips right now and you look at that implied inflation rate, this morning it was at 2.24%. back in april, march/april type period it was trending closer to 3. that basically means the market is suggesting that long-term inflation would be 3%. obviously the fed didn't like that in march and april, in that time frame, so they moved aggressively today it's at 2.24 yesterday, frankly, was at 2.15. as it trends closer to 2%, which is the long-term goal for the fed, they get very nervous because they don't want it to go below 2 because one of the worse things that could happen is a

deflationary crisis. that would be bad for the united states, bad for the world. so what i think is happening right now, the bond market is sensing that we're getting to the end of the fed rate hikes and i think that's why you're seeing a lift off of these markets. >> so i talked to a hedge fund manager last night who was saying, look, i think it's not 75 basis points, i think it's 50, that's why things are moving higher do you agree with that >> i do agree with that. i think they probably move one more time. if it is 75, i think the market moves higher because that's really the finishing point 50 would be good as well but, again, remember, deflation is the worst thing that can happen to a debt laidened economy. wages go down but your debt stays constant the average household is making 60ish thousand a year and carrying $200,000 debt that happened in the 1930s

it becomes impossible to service that debt. they saw an economic collapse. the fed doesn't want that. they're trying to avoid that possibility. >> anthony throw in the possibility or hopefully not the possibility but throw in the mix the gauge of fear that people have about the markets woke up on monday, a lot of people worried about credit su suisse, knock on effects to deutsche bank. how do you put that into the stew throw in the australian government as well >> i think they have to be worried. they learned something from the lehman brothers debacle. everyone says they're waiting for something to break i honestly don't believe that. i think they want you to get to the point of breakage, andrew, but they don't want something to break because it always has untold catastrophic consequences the downfall of lehman brothers, i think you even wrote about it in your book ten years ago, it

probably contributed 200 basis points to the unemployment number, which was totally unnecessary. so hopefully we've learned that lesson from the global financial crisis and they'll start to peter out on these interest rate hikes because the long-term trend, where the bond market, which obviously bond market knows everything, my old boss bobrubin used to say that. the bond market at 2.24 on the tips in terms of the real long-term inflation target for the tips, i think that's enough for the fed not to go below 2. >> throw in crypto into this conversation so we're looking right now at bitcoin closing in i want to say 20,000 again is this just simply risk on/risk off, that's the only way to look at it? >> i think so, andrew. until the sec and the cftc and the legislature moves to create more clarity in the regulation around crypto, it seems like

it's conjoined to the nasdaq and other risk assets. i will point out though last month i think bitcoin was down 3% market. the overall market was close to down 10% it did better last month at some point i will predict a decoupling but it won't be until you get the regulatory clarity with the market up it doesn't surprise me bitcoin and others are moving. >> i don't know if this is worksafe or not. this is the cover of the new york post. >> yes, i can see that. >> pump and run. kim smacked by sec for crypto con. >> yes. >> a lot of folks have been promoting crypto over the last couple of years. what do you think of what gary ri gensler has done in this particular case to ms. kardashian, clearly making an example i think in some ways to an example about her. >> i hate talking about gary on live air so i'm going to refrain

from talking about gary. i would just say i get the statement that they're making. i was surprised that they went that far given the disclosure that was put into the stuff that she sent out you know, people like me, we're broker/dealers, we're registered, we have all of the different things that we need to do to be prepared for something like that. i don't -- i don't like doing that to people, but i understand where he's going and he's trying to send a message of regulatory compliance to people but i'm not into the witch hunt game my old friend rudy giuliani, he went after everybody there was a lot of people on the front page of the new york post in the '80s and the '90s a lot of those people's lives got ruined i'm not in love with the witch hunt business. >> there's a checkers and chess game being played. effectively one of the things

he's trying to do is grab ethereum and other kinds of tokens like that and say, these are securities >> yeah. well, listen, the beauty of all that, it's got to be decided in the congress i think ethereum and bitcoin are not securities there are potentially other ones that are not securities. ultimately if you're getting a yield off of something, it probably is a security we'll have to let them decide that, andrew i think bitcoin is definitely not going to be -- >> em he a' cruise guy try the disney cruise if your kids are young. >> i'll take it. i'll take it. >> just letting you know. >> my kids will like a disney cruise. >> katzenburg. >> a long time ago, joe. >> no, he's got that boat with all of the people that rank get

to go. we know some of them. >> we're not -- >> we're not -- >> we know some. >> tom hanks all hanging out together oprah. the third quarter wasn't just bad for stocks sales of luxury apartments in manhattan seeing the biggest drop robert fra jnsnkoi us. a quick check on the futures we'll be right back. undreds of a points like hrv and rem sleep, so you know all you need for recovery. and you are? i'm an investor...in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to... nasdaq 100 innovations like... wearable training optimization tech. uh, how long are you... i'm done. i'm okay.

good morning investors feeling better about the fourth quarter the dow's best day in three months the u.n. says the world is on the edge of a recession and warns that rate hikes in advanced economies could push things over the edge we've got a trio of guests this hour prepared to talk all about the moves from the fed, the markets and so much more starwood capital's barry sternlicht gally digital's mike novogratz and the ceo of robin hood. final hour of "squawk box" begins right now.

good morning and welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. live from the nasdaq market site i'm joe kernen with becky quick and andrew ross sorkin dream works ceos mixed up. that's the megayacht where all the celebs get to go in the mediterranean. barry had one. a lot of those guys. barry ellison. in this case katsimer didn't have one i know you know nothing about it >> i don't know. >> i'm not saying you were on it i'm not saying you were on it. you'd be on one with sails your cruise ship will have sails. there's no way you -- u.s. equity futures at this hour, you can see up over 400 points now after 750 yesterday. nasdaq indicated up 236 and treasury yields this morning have moderated again

i don't know, is there hope? is there hope for maybe a fed that doesn't go go higher? three five nine. is sri on? is he in the eighth? yeah, he is. let's get you caught up on some of the stories that investors will be talking about today. first up, the white house is reportedly reporting new exports on semiconductors. the move is the latest push by the biden administration to deny china the ability to make faster computer chips it will go with the sanctions. they are considering adding more chinese technologies to the commerce department's black list the european parliament approving new rules today ordering a single type of

charging phone for cell phones, tablets and the port they've chosen is the usb c variety. apples will be forced to change it it may be a boon for apple because it could force more people to go out and buy more devices. along with the futures, tesla shares are also on the rise but there's also this. ark funds yesterday bought more than 130,000 shares. ark's ceo cathie wood is a long-time fan of tesla and elon musk let's talk about elon musk he has angered some officials in ukraine. officials did not hide their displeasure. it started yesterday when musk posted a poll when asking followers when he asked about

their thoughts if crimea become part of russia and the four regions annexed by russia. that was his argument. ukraine's president responded which elon musk do you like more, one who supports ukraine, one who supports russia? ukraine's outgoing general hurled a four letter word to him. he has been somewhat of a folklore and those comments on twitter seeming to dye trkt a little bit from his popularity i want to get back to the markets. dom chu has been watching the action and joins us dom? >> you mentioned what happened

to tesla it's trading in the pre-market here's some of the others to give you names that are among the biggest gainers. the pre-market leaders in the nasdaq 100 trade since we focused on the s&p last hour you have data dog. many stocks have been in bigger downtrends data dog is up 4%. docusign is up 3%. airbnb up 3% paypal up 3% same with pinduoduo. some of the technology and beaten up names catching that bid. when i checked earlier this past hour there were no nasdaq 100 stocks that were trading in the pre-market that were actually negative that kind of gives you an idea whether or not there's a little bit of momentum. we'll see if it's past this is due in part to analysts

who are overweight they like some of the visibility and transparency in the hiv franchise, treatment franchise they have over at gilead they think the emerging oncology or treatment franchise gilead getting comment over jpmorgan up 3.5%. another one is rivian. their shares are up 8% after pre-market after they said it sent out and produced more than 7,000 vehicles in the third quarter. that's a big jump where it was last year. it's on pace to make it 25,000 vehicles last year rivian is up 8% in the premarket. >> thanks, dom appreciate it. let's go to the broader markets as they are anticipating what interest rates might do paying attention to today's job earnings and the jolts survey. friday is nonfarm payroll and

some advanced economies trigger a global recession, worse than the one during the financial crisis we have the chief investment officer and sri kamar. we come to you for discussions about this a lot we turned down fairly quickly on the 10-year. did we get the highs in and yields >> yes, we have the highs on yield. i think 4% is the peak we have come down. we have come down a lot but i don't think it is going to be a continued rally beyond let's say the mark for the 10-year the reason is that inflation is still a problem.

i don't just look at long-term inflationary, i also look to see the latest inflation numbers and last week the fed's preferred gauge was much more than anticipated. most important for the ed, you did back off now after having made monumental errors with the transitory car during 2021 this is the last time they have to regain a little bit of credibility. so they would rather make a mistake in forward tightening rather than ease and that is what is shown to you with the 2-year yield and the 10-year yield has come down and it's remained inverted consistently since the beginning of july. that is giving a recession signal it is also giving a signal that the fed is going to keep tightening at least into the november meeting

>> we'll come back to you, sri let me get annastasia to talk about this a lot of times i see what the u.n. is saying it does affect lesser developed countries more when there's a global slowdown. i don't know, does the fed need to take that into account? do central bankers need to take that into account, annastasia? >> i don't think so. i don't think the fed is going to pivot because the job on inflation is not done. we got a cpi report that stated that a pc report stated that. i think the fed is not likely to step back from its firm path you know, the best case scenario, we get to 4%, they sort of slow down from there but the challenge for quities, for example, joe, is that with rates at 4%, that's a really high rate and it kind of fundamentally

changes a lot of things. it changes how people think about investing, saving, borrowing. it just really puts this downward pressure on the economy. what's really changed for equities is the relative value when you look at earnings yield minus the 10-year treasury it is not in favor of equities as it has been for the last 14 years. the second thing is when you tighten policy this much, i mean, hopefully nothing breaks but it certainly is going to cause more of a slowdown, if not a recession. that's where the equity investors really have to grapple with having said that, we had said such a big reset in the month of september, whether it's b multiples coming down, whether it's technicals getting oversold whether it's bread being washed out. i think back to this reset in september, we can't actually be poised for better trading in october. >> now i'll comepa back to you,

sri. >> in november i'm looking for 75 basis points. if you get favorable numbers elsewhere, for example, if you have job growth being very poor on friday, which i don't anticipate i think you are looking for about 235,000, in which case it cannot back off so november is still 75 basis points. the question is really the december meeting the last meeting of the year and by then we will have two more inflation numbers,two mor jobs numbers that the fed can take into account. i am wavering between 25 and 50 at the december meeting for this change here is a key caveat going along with what anastasia said before, i will go a step further. i think something is going to break. you have interest rates being increased at historically rapid

pace you also have quantitative g guide -- widening pace keep in mind the last time it was a 75 basis point was november of 1994, not before if you have a combination of the two, that has never happened we don't know what will break. there is a financial institution that goes broke, then the fed is going to pivot abruptly and you are going to see inpolice rights and it's comparable to what the bank of england did. that's the key caveat. if that doesn't happen by the end of the year, 75 in november, 25 to 50 in december >> anastasia, even with three 75 basis point increases, even if we did get that, the absolute numbers are low historically

do you think because it's such a big percentage move off the lows that that could cause some type of dislocation even if the absolute level of interest rates are still not horribly high. if you have three straight 75 basis point moves, which are unprecedented, does that shock something? >> it is a shock coming into the year the consensus was we were going to get three 25-point basis point increases. that was consensus here we are looking at north of 4% any time you get the short-term sharp moves, i think the precedent suggests it can cause some dislocations. i'm probably not as concerned about the united states as i am about europe because in the u.s. we look around and the debt service ratios in the u.s. are low. forfeit balance sheets are low and the explosion of closing rates whether it's on corporate balance sheets or consumer

balance sheets, the floating rates are not all that great if you go across the pongd where in europe you had a housing market that is on a tier financed by exceptionally low rates, people, i think, have gotten very complacent about the fact the rates always stayed zero and property prices always go up. i think that's one of the things that i'm looking for for a break. they're starting to potentially starting to squeeze some of the households in the eurozone i think any time you get such a fast move you have to look for potential pockets of dislocation. >> sri-kumar,, i know we will. savvy over the years and even in rising rates

i thought you were just good at calling lows i think you might be pretty good at this, too. >> that price has only been seen -- i appreciate it very much. >> we appreciate it too. thanks, sri. >> it's tough to do. when we come back, a "squawk box" exclusive interview starwood capital's barry sternlicht will join us along with galaxy digital's richard novogratz and the chair of robin hood we'll talk all things stock, crypto, the benefit featuring stocks one week away from the robin hood event it's been a helping them are the investment vicars in the fa 100 list. tune in at noon eastern.

check out the full list by going to cnbc.com/fa100. "squawk box" will be right back.

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welcome back to "squawk box," everybody. the futures are sharply higher dow futures up 436 points. nasdaq up 240. s&p up by 65 if you're watching the big tech giants this morning, you can see right now that they're up across the board. looks like the biggest gainer of the ones we're looking at is amazon which is up by almost 3%. meta up by 2%. microsoft up by 2% and alphabet up by 1.75 >> facebook parent meta is planning to close one of its new york offices the social media giant can terminate a lease in a building near manhattan's union square. they said the company remains firmly committed to new york speaking of new york real estate, the quarter just ended, third quarter was a painful one for the segment. a rarefied segment of this market robert frank joins us with a look at that rarefied part of

the market ro robert there was a 7% increase and an 18% decline the average apartment selling just under $2 million. prices lagged sales. half the deals that closed in the third quarter were actually negotiated before may. then when you look forward, it's the high end of the market right now that is getting hit the hardest. signed contracts for apartments priced over $4 million were down by 50% in september. the supply of luxury apartments up 29% in the quarter and discounts are now highest for apartments priced at 10 million or more. brokers say sales are still above the 10-year average and a decline from last year's art figures ly line deal but the bi

deal by brokers is we get a market freeze because the sellers don't want to lift and the buyers don't want to buy because they expect prices to fall further so you get this standoff where there's just no activity andrew >> but the standoff effectively means that the truth is not only is the market soft, it's worse than soft, right >> yeah. yeah and with the brokers -- you know manhattan brokers. >> yeah. >> they're always glass half full what they say is beings look, we're going back to the normal of pre-pandemic. half of the apartments on billionaire's row were unsold and empty. >> right >> that was not a great market. >> the other question i was going to ask you, we keep talking about billionaire's row, this very, very, very rarefied version of new york. new york is of course getting more rarefied for better of

earth. how does that trickle down to the rest of the real estat ecosystem? >> the whole ecosystem right now is weak. apartments in the 1 to 2 million range, which is a lot of money, but that's kind of the lower end of manhattan or even the 500,000 to million range, those are weak not as weak at the top that's thesector getting hit b higher interest rates. two different region and it's morey responsive to stock markets. the entire spectrum is weak and that bottom side which still had gotten pretty good volume in the quarter is showing weakness in signed contracts so that's a look ahead >> robert frank, always good to see you getting your reporting on this rarefied version of the world. thanks coming up, a trio of special guests that you don't want to miss we will talk to the latest challenges facing the fed, real

estate, cryptocurrencies and more with starwood capital barry sternlicht and mike novogratz and we'll ask the head of robin hood this year's market volatility is affecting giving. stay tuned, you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc

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unmistakable voice is not could be confused with his brother james who vacationed -- >> i didn't know the vacation. >> poor little dog. coming up, talk about unmistakable, we're going to get jim cramer's take on the trading day ahead and then our big interview with barry sternlicht, mike novogratz and robin hood's richard burry. follow squawk pod on your favorite squawk pod app and listen any time. we're coming right back. en centl to our client relationships and long-term perspective. it's part of our heritage. and it's the foundation for our future. pursue active investment strategies at federatedhermesinc.com

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3.6% 2-year just over 4 4.05 oil prices were up a little bit. actually, they gained a little more steam pretty good day yesterday on the possibility of some cuts from opec plus and opened up nor 2%. jim cramer joins us now. jim, we've been talking all morning about how we see green on the screen and is that a good thing? is that a bad thing? does that mean the economy is actually worse than we thought and now the fed's going to realize that and maybe try not to make it worse is this some kind of backwards and forwards, forwards is backwards situation? >> that's part of their narrative. the other is everyone's fighting this andrew, when i read the research, everyone is looking it's a bear market rally, don't believe it, price target is cut. i've go got to tell you, the market does not want to hear that right now the market is angry at the bears

after having free rein for three quarters and i think we're going into the early season. the first quarters is the bank and their numbers are good so i do think people who are digging in their heels negative, maybe they walk away don't go so negative today. >> don't you think the hedge fund complex at least as far as i know it is completely positioned on the bearish end right now? >> completely. the people, the public as we know it has been leaving in droves there's not been a lot of corporate buybacks no equity activity isn't that the case when you can have a rip snorting rally? even when we get into that line, this rally has staying power read the research today. people are too negative. >> we always have two types of viewers here we have some that are playing

the long-term game and some that are playing by the hour, by the day. give us a prognosis on both. >> i think the long term people are saying this is an amazing opportunity. everything is going to be fine ukraine will prevail there will be no nukes and the short-term people are saying, look, the russians are moving the noose over in two weeks we're going to have a super spreader event in china and there's going to be red hod waives of people will have no place and it will be red hot on friday those are the bears. the long term do not care. >> you say that, jim, i was actually about to say the opposite. >> why >> i wonder whether actually the short-term folks are thinking, you know beings what, the next six months will be chalky, down,

if not worse and that some of the long-term focus -- i'm sorry, the short-term focus in the medium term, maybe things move up because sort of this fed dynamic and the long germ -- long-term folks, they're drawn i went to an eagles game and people were saying, you know what, jim, i love you but i'm buying the 5-year. these are people that don't know what 5-year is i'm buying cds nothing's like cds i'm like, how do you know that cds are paying 3 i don't think a 5-year cd is that great a bet now the 5-year actually buy the treasury is not bad. andrew, you're right about that. new money from people who think that is a great piece of data. yeah, i like people saying they

buy stocks they don't believe in i believe there's a long-term cohort that says, listen, long term this is all noise it's noise. >> jim cramer, thank you i think cds -- i think it's mp 3s now, maybe mp 4s. >> what was that nft standing for? was that a curse word? >> nonfungible tokens. >> stop it >> it's a family show. it's a family show i don't want to hear what that middle letter means. stop it. >> jim cramer, we'll see you a little bit at the top of the hour. >> the f word. >> starwood capital's barry sternlicht, never one to hold back we're going to get his updated views michael novogratz will be with us and the ceo of n yework based charity robin hood stay tuned, "squawk" returning after this

all right, everybody we're requesting to talk markets, philanthropy and investing. barry sternlicht is here michael novogratz who's the ceo of galaxy dimg tall and richard buery who is ceo of robin hood barry and mike are on the board of robin hood which is holding the tenth annual investing club.

they're holding their meeting next week. gentlemen, we want to welcome all three of you >> nice to be here. >> let's start out with you and talk about the great organization i know over the last three decades robin hood has put $3 billion back into the economy and the need has been incredibly great since covid hit. where do things stand right now just in terms of need in the city >> well, thank you there are 1.4 million new yorkers living in poverty and millions more that are one missed paycheck or one crisis away from falling in poverty themselves i know those challenges have only been exacerbatedduring th pandemic where low income new yorkers have born the brunt of it even despite the recovery we're seeing around the country, new york is still struggling unemployment has not come back to pre-pandemic heights.

we have not seen all the jobs return this is a challenging time for new york city and it's what robin hood has been built for. we've invested almost $3 billion investing in the most impactful, the most effective poverty funded organizations in new york city one of the great things about robin hood's work because our incredible board including barry and mike pay all of our overhead, all of our administrative costs every time you give a dollar to robin hood, that money goes directly to organizations that have been able to demonstrate they're having a measurable impact barry, in terms of the need. when you were on a couple of weeks ago you were worried about the future of the economy, where things were headed because of what the fed has been doing. we've been watching the market pick up this morning and friday, yesterday, the day before. we've been watchingthis big up

swing. do you think that's premature? >> it's all in how this thing ends i was on a couple thursdays ago and they announced the biggest miss in 20 years you're going to see a lot of that what i caution is the fed had to be slower and look at the data, look at the impact of their raises they're screwing up the entire globe as the u.n. pointed out today. i'm actually calling the u.n i'm in tokyo right now where it's night and they have a crazy currency here. it's 144 against the dollar. it's going to scramble global economics. i guess it's 113 today 104 when they came up with that unusual fiscal policy and stimulus so, you know, you're not just affecting -- spoulpowell is affn all of the globe's markets it's affecting global trade, imbalances petro dollars.

middle eastern nations are long oil obviously but they're also long dollars they have an incredible purchasing power because it's tied to the dollar they can go to england and buy everything and the same is true with the chinese they're tied to the dollar too, but it makes their exports less effective. the chain reaction of powell's i would say backward looking data. we don't have to look anywhere $36 trillion in global wealth in this correction. that is going to have knock-on effects not to mention the cracks that are developing in real estate, construction projects that will be halted, bank's loans that can't be refinanced because the banks are freaking out because they don't know what the fed policy is going to be. at the same time he's raising the rates, he's liquidating the balance sheet of the country it's the tightest monetary policy we've ever seen the stocks in the real estate index are backto where they were in the gfc.

so the market thinks the world is going to end and powell is pretenting, your guests have c credi credibility. we're not arguing that the fed has to act to bring down inflation but they should understand where the inflation came from. it came from all those global stimulus packages on the back of the reopening global economy and they just -- it was to the moon and beyond they missed the mean stocks. they missed the ka casino and nw that people are building and getting employed, wages are rising, now they want to stomp the whole thing and end the party. it's kind of like -- i feel like he's the captain driving the titanic into the ocean consumers in the u.s. are still spending but it's inevitable that they can't keep this up so the fed has to stop and just look at the data i said it before, i'll say it

again. the market is -- this equity market and the bond market move overnight on had the fed's moves. the real economy takes time and people, jobs, investment decisions will be put off. capitol spending will slow the tech stocks you mentioned earlier, facebook giving up space in new york. they're going to cause unbelievable calamities if they keep up their action, not just here, all over the whole globe because they are affecting -- europe has to raise rates to protect the currencies they were never fast-growing economies. their inflation is almost completely driven by the oil prices particularly the ukraine/russia thing we might actually want to see how that pans out, too it looks at the moment with ukraine's success that putin may -- this may not last that long he may have to either give up or even -- or be ousted and the markets will rally on that i think the market is looking at

the purchasing number and saying -- the manufacturing index and saying maybe they'll take notice this time and we're reaching the top of the curve. i'm not so sure. i think the fed governors are really not paying attention to the real economy, what's happening up there the housing market car sales. i mean, you're going to see slowing everywhere nobody can afford a car with a 7% payment you know, just look at the stock market the wealth loss is money lost that's purchasing power. i mean, it is going to pan out across the globe, not just the u.s. there is no engine of growth the exciting thing, if you want to look at the positives, it is russia and the ukraine situation ending probably earlier than we thought, maybe within six months and eventually china will reopen and that will actually help the global economy as they go back to fwhork. other than that, i can't think of any positives right now. >> mike, let me ask what we've

seen with the bank of england being forced to raise rates because of the market instability there. those are the types of things that really start people worrying, is there going to be a contagion effect i'll ask you because of your expertise in the markets are there other areas where you see things like that >> yeah. they're huge imbalances. the japanese are trying to run a policy in keeping rates at zero and buying add infinite tum their own government bonds those two things don't make sense and they can't happen. as long as the fed stays hawkish, i think, you know, just like what barry is saying, the fed is going to stay hawkish the owners of building's rents are going to stay high, wages are high, employment is still -- there's a lag effect they feel like if these numbers keep trending high, they've got to do something so i think the fed is certainly going to raise rates a few more times

certainly the market has sniffed out that if the world starts breaking the fed will have to react. and so we're going to -- i think october is going to be a reversal month you've already seen the first two days, you know, yields much lower, stocks much higher, but that doesn't make the imbalances go away. and so we've got -- you know, one of the big risks in the world is japan, right? they keep buying, keep buying, keep buying. that currency takes out 145 and so there's still a ton of instability around once powell flinches i think things calm down, right? but until then and we see it, we're going to be on pins and needles. >> mike, can you hear me >> yeah. >> don't you think powell's raising vats creating even more instability? isn't he sewing the end of the financial system with his actions? what brittain had to do and what

they're -- it was like they drove -- they had their foot on the accelerator on the floor and on the brake at the same time trying to halt the craziness >> i think the instability really got caused by every central bank and every government, every congress thinking money grew on trees and we've pushed so much money into the system during the covid pandemic, and this is pay back and pay back's painful it just is painful and, you know, when you have inflation, when you have wage settlements at 5, 6, 7% that's a long way from the 2% stable inflation rate and so wage -- until wage pressures start coming back down, i think the fed's going to have to be more cautious to normal to some degree this is just pay back pain. >> but the federal government can help, can sign the 1.6 worker visas and let immigrants

back in. that can help us if you added more supply to the labor market you would have lower wage growth especially the way out of jobs that are hard to fill he is using a very blunt tool, right? and the end game here is there will be all kinds of cracks showing up it's like kind of walking walki through a minefield. you will hear about companies not making numbers currency is all screwed up you have microsoft's earnings. you have a lot of forces that are very hard to put the puzzle together it is a very -- he's playing with fire. he's on the edge of a very bad mistake. you can't do that this fast. i don't think it's the right medicine seugz medicine put them on unemployment benefits before they were paying taxes to the government we will hear we have to give unemployment benefits if we have to then we will have extended

unemployment benefits. and then the left will say capitalism is broken and it will be all because of powell this is really brilliant a brilliant strategy >> i would blame congress as much as i would make the fed >> i agree we're going to put trillions of dollars in interest on trillions in debt. that meanswe have to keep printing and printing and printing you have to relieve the pressures in the economy, the labor bottleneck >> that's quite frankly why you should be long bitcoin and hard assets like real estate. when they print too much money, we saw it in the uk briefly. they have restored confidence now because i think there was too much panic when confidence goes, people

look for other assets. >> do you think the fed is going to stop? you said this will be a pivot month. you said inflation is not going to be under control. do you think the fed stops or pauses or no >> i don't think they necessarily stop hiking rate they could certainly soften their rhetoric some. a lot will fend on friday. it's payroll data and inflation data we know there is a manufacturing slowdown you saw the ism yesterday. just a little bit of miss in numbers got the market reacting pretty significant so we have this tale of two cities in some ways. the services economy continues to be fine and the manufacturing economy is plunging in many ways. powell, in july, told us what we wanted to do, and the market punished him in a lot of ways. he wanted to raise and becpausen

see what the rates did >> you said you want you want to own hard assets and bitcoin. truth is, bitcoin has the likely a risk asset if you look at real estate in many parts of the country, take the rental piece out of it, it has come down in harmony with what we are starting to see in the equity market. >> i think you're getting it backwards. people said inflation hedge. 10,000 went to 706789 it was a spectacularen tphraeugz hedge. when powell started beating inflation over the head with a sledgehammer, bitcoin came down, as did lots of assets. if he tphreufrpbs and gives up this fight before inflation comes down, which is what barry hoping for and advocating, you

will see other assets take right back off >> i'm not advocating. i think he has done enough your consumer that was overstated, he is now using credit cards delinquencies will increase. banks know it. that's why they cut back credit lending. the fed has done enough. let them just wait they will have to lower rates. the economy will crumble what you are seeing is manufacturing is the dollar's strength it doesn't happen in a week or two weeks. you can't be week to week in payroll numbers. who would run a business like this look at the impact look what the markets are saying, lack of ipos, capital raising. we look at the value of the homes. homes are falling. rents are rolling over cpi is flawed. it's going to be backward looking data for the rental

number for the next two or three months, and it's going to be too high it is not what you will be seeing in the field >> gentlemen, no matter how long we have, it's never enough time we would love to have you back in studio to talk about this hours at a time. richard, before we go, just let people know about this investor conference for robinhood next week october 11th and 12th. what can we do. >> the jpmorgan robinhood conference october 11th and 12th for 10 straight years, jpmorgan has been sponsoring it it's the first time back in person since the pandemic. it will allow you to get real actual investment in sights. two, to know every dollar you spend is going to help clothe, feed, educate new yorkers. we have an incredible lineup folks like ken griffin, ben bernanke nike novogratz talking about

crypto larry fink, larry summers and others one of the things we're doing this year for the first time, we have four master classes paul jones talking about macro john gray talking about real estate john griffin talking about lessons from the late great jordan robertson and paul singer talking about risk it is almost sold out. it is a great place to give back and learn. go to robinhood.org/investors- conference learn more, help new york fight poverty through good >> richard, berry, mike, thank all of you

news is out this morning micron plans to spend as much as $100 billion the next 20 years to build a huge computer chip factory complex in upstate new york it will be built in clay >> klay, new york. >> it will be built in clay, new york because that definitely wouldn't work if you would try to build it in clay it wouldn't last, number one that is 15 miles north of

syracuse site preparation will begin next year micron ceo told the "new york times" that the decision was made because, in part, the $52 mil billion in grants passed in august and favorable tax treatment and partnership with new york's state government. >> not pottery >> can you see that like in "ghost." >> make sure you join us tomorrow "squawk on the street" is next good tuesday morning welcome to "squawk on the street". i'm carl quintanilla we get this dovish surprise hiking rates less than expected, raising the received likelihood of rate hikes. a road map begins with wall street's rally mode. investors await new commentary from the fed thre