dated 52 and less than a 5% above 54. >> that is going out of the door. you didn't have a lot of time are you barely realized you have two dollars in the upside. i think these casino names seem to keep it down multiple by one third and we are starting to get a breakout. >> you are holding out for 220? thank you for watching fast money. mad money with jim cramer starts right now. other people want to make friends, i'm just trying to make you some money my job is not just to entertain but to educate and put these days into perspective. call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer.

we're reaching the high peaks stock market this is the place we spot peaks everywhere last week a regional president talked about raising rates in recession. in light of new data, that could be peak hauwkishness. we could be looking at peak treasury yields and could have a second day of explosive gains. the dow surging 825.43 points and the nasdaq plummeting 3.34%. now coming this week the market is over sold as it was when the pandemic started as over sold when jay powell talked about lock step rate hikes in late 2018 could it be peak over sold we saw the dollar drop 4% in a few days

peak back. we have the possibility of elon musk paying full price for twitter. no question. let's call it peak enthusiasm to put it kindly for a brand worth way less now that is indeed a range of great peaks, i don't know, rivaling himalayas and one that should be irrelevant but played a role in today's bullish session. what does the navigation of this high peak region tell us about the stock market in your portfolio? let's say things are very much in flux because each day gives us a new piece of data that impacts the market, most importantly the two-year treasury i want you to consider the two-year as a kind of thermometer, all right when a piece of data comes in hot, the thermometer shows the medicine means yes, rate hikes

coming into this weak i'd say the thermometer was 103 degrees. we're very much in need of the rate hike medicine we don't know the dosing this is important. a lot of people say they're doing rate hikes, that's ridiculous no, the size matter, not the rate hikes we need to know the dose who knows, unfortunately this medicine reminds me of chemo therapy. rate hikes will kill the disease inflation and do serious harm to the patient and that harm is recession. you know i try to use these met fo -- metaphors. it sent the therm ometer lower they want to administer chemo no matter what and you know what

that would do to the patient today we got another weaker number the job opening number showed a 10% decline in august. that's the biggest drop in 2.5 years. that's another piece of data that set the temperature lower you get two pieces of cooler data and makes you wonder if loretta, the most aggressive hawk urging maximum chemo might have less influence. maybe even her hawkishness has peaked maybe treasury yields have peaked, too. the two-year looked like it was about to gallop to 5% last week. a crazy high number. now it back down to above 4 and might be headed down to a three handle a lot of this temperature taking is counter intuitive, right? how can we manufacture and be good for the economy of course it's not good. it a positive development because the alternative is run away inflation

if we get strong data, the fed has to bring more pain and engineer a harsh recession that's what is at stake. same for the job opening numbers. nobody likes to see the number of job openings go down especially if you're looking for work but if you're looking for a cooler economy, which we are, a god send the fed's number one priority is bringing down wage inflation and they're finally making progress, meaning the rate hikes might not need to be as aggressive going forward. >> house of pleasure. >> what does the dollar have to do with it the dollar has insanely strong the higher it goes, the worse it is for our companies if you sell goods in a foreign kerr currency, it translates. the strong dollar makes exporters much -- our experts are less competitive against each other let me give you an kprexample. caterpillar is easier for them

to fend off -- you ever see those big earth movers on the side of the road when you see caboda, it's not going to cat they're big competitors. maybe a weakening dollar can soften the blow of a potential recession. especially the tech companies that are completely slaughtered by an unfavorerble exchange rate hence, why tech roared today if the fed can navigate the high peaks region, there is no reason to think we need to go into a recession. even as you hear it endlessly on air. it's not bipolar i am definitely not against rate hikes but they come in different sizes, 25 basis points, 50, we had three of those 75 basis point hikes in a row and i think we could use some smaller ones going forward, maybe 25 basis points even given the cooler data we've been seeing, the fed doesn't have to kill the patient to save it from inflation. even at 50-basis point hike

might be a descent dose with another final 50-basis point if necessary down the road. when we can adjust to it however, the hawks want to keep prescribing the same high dosage without checking to see how the patient is doing and that seems down right reckless. you know what i favor? prudence the situation is fluid we take the economy's temperature every day including a big reading this friday with that non-farm payroll's report we might wonder once again whether if we're seeing peak hawkishness from the fed all over again but you know what we won't question how about peak foolishness in the form of the $54.25 per share that elon musk agreed to pay for twitter. a price arrived at at no court in delaware would overturn of course, paying too much versus what the stock would be worth if he weren't involved but nobody forced to make a bid. he just got unlucky with the timing i'm glad musk threw in the towel and agreed to pay up recognizing

the report was good and enforced the terms of the deal anyway it a waste of time to fight it but i recognize, how about this? i don't fear elon musk i'll call it peak foolishness because i know what i see. so does e long that's why he was eager to get out. the 22% run confirms the market may have gotten to peak over sold last week it's not that musk is an idiot for over paying but the market got accessibly negative. short term oscillator i used to measure over sold conditions minus ten this week. a reading almost always preceded as snap back rally twitter $54.20 way too high but the actions we think that well, it would be at 20 -- with musk's take over it and that seems stupidly low in retrospect $20 is probably where it would be without it. can you imagine? of course, the idea that we need to take the temperature of this market every day seems stupid but can i just ask you, ever been to a hospital when you're sick they hook up a

monitor and comparison todayly readings is benign we're finally seeing signs of a slowdown in most of the important parts of the economy, this inflation may not be as malignant as the hawks believe they might ratchet down the next dose of chemo hence today's tremendous run maybe with staying power at least until the next reading of the two-year treasury thermometer let's go to kevin in north carolina, kevin? >> caller: hey, jim, long time first time club member here. calling about -- >> thank you for being in the club thank you. we're working as hard as we can for you. what's up? >> caller: i'm calling about an old favorite of yours. i made a bunch of money in the stock over the years but down big in my current position even after today's bounce should i hold, buy more or sell and put that money to work in other club names? >> well, you know, i turn negative on shopify because i'm not recommending the stock of any company losing money not one. not one. so in that sense, shopify

probably goes up maybe again tomorrow we got a nice gain today 10% i need you to take evasive action we're not recommending stocks of companies that lose money. john in florida, john? >> caller: how are you doing today? >> john, good day, how about you? >> caller: marvelous i'm thinking the market should be showing some more for our friends in mo town specific ally ford 197% sales increase. they have market cap barely over four. >> john, i can represent apologize. the problem is they haven't been able to get the parts they need to deliver the cars we want including the bronco, the m mach e, the 150. they can't do the numbers that way. now that we're finally seeing the signs of a slow down in the

most important parts of the economy, maybe we're seeing peak hawkishness hence today's tremendous run. on "mad" tonight, the company behind jim beam. a closer look at the spirits business to see how the company is doing then we're on day two of this rally but does it have staying power? we'll go off the charts to find out and bio haven is part of fazer a e pfizer after the acquisition what about one of the most successful migraine drugs in history? stay with cramer >> announcer: don't miss a second of ""mad m "mad money. follow @jimcramer on twitter or tweet him #had madtweets or givs a call at 1-800-743-c, tnbc.

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in a slowdown relike to circle the wagon around food and beverage we wanted to check in in the space and speak to a leader in the japanese food that acquired jim beam a decade ago and as a host of japanese soft drinks, you've seen them in the store. you can't buy shares but we can sure learn a lot about the industry today we got a chance to check in with the ceo of sauntory holdings can i call you ta because you've

been on a number of times. you have as i regard as the greatest bourbon franchise in the world. it growing well. give me a sense of what it can be in the future. >> further more premiumizing our brands, makers, and they will be much better liquid over time i'd like to create the innovations of those brands high end to appeal to the -- those who love high-end bourbons so that's about intention now. and then we're investing to our distilleries in kentucky. >> now, do you think that you can talk about maybe millions of cases of some of these what are right now smaller brands that everybody in america knows are delicious? we love bourbon here. >> well, we'll be more focused on the small batches so we want

to go with more or less high-end with the less volume we like to launch more virgins of, let's say, bakers, little bakers and from those founding families and so that means we don't want to go for volume but small number so sorry to those who love our products so not the thousands and thousands of cases. >> at the same time, when i go through the aisles i see in the single mall you have yamazaki and la froy. you've been doing a lot of volume with la froy. tell me about the single malt business. >> we've been increasing production capacity in japan and in scotland and both producing fine single malt whiskies but

it's -- it takes a lot of years and our policy is until the quality supersedes our standard we'll not ship out so that's, you know, the trick to discipline and that's i think our story. >> well, it's clearly working because you've got great margin improvement and great revenue. now. which are the drivers of those two? >> gross margins. >> gross margins. >> we should grow gross margins and shows the appreciation from consumers. >> we know johnny walker is a different company had tremendous success. if you don't mind my saying, i think that jim beam can have every bit of that same success

that would be a lift of maybe say almost 40% is it possible >> it is we have to find the best ways to serve consumers and used to be highball is 50% whisky, 50% soda line not as one third to go after female drinkers. we'd like to expand the drinkers not only in men, women as well so highball's selfie great to promote jim beam. >> now, a lot of people think if times get tougher a higher-end alcohol might not sell as well i've found that the premium brands very much hold up under even difficult times.

>> look at the cigarette market. cigar is still very popular and this shows their future in a se sense, the people drink less but will drink premium so our future is based on ultra premium spirits like makers mark so we like to offer further premium spirits. >> that's where the gross margin is. >> yes. >> one last question, i don't think people realize after a remarkable environmental effort, renewable energy for all production, 100% recyclable aluminum cans and green hiydroge

must be something you care about. >> the spirit always give back to society whatever it costs, we'd like to complete and achieve our goal to net zero emissions and in the distilleries we already achieved zero emissions but our concern is scope three, what to do with the supply chain and what to do with the truck drivers and they are so concerned about gas emissions. so we have still issue but our idea and is we will achieve zero emissions by 2050 in the world and we are on the way. >> i congratulate you for your incredible success and what you've done with these brands, so many good things. i wish it was a stock i could just recommend because your

volume but more importantly your gross margins are superb because you don't produce something if it isn't the best. that's what i like that's the president and ceo of suntory holedings. no, you can't own it but you can drink it. coming up, is this rally the real deal? don't turn your upside down frown upside down just yet join cramer off the charts, next

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the second fabulous day in a row we have to ask ourselves if this rally could have real legs. regular viewers know that i've been very skeptical of some of the games here last night i told you this move is mostly about sentiment with a dash of cooler inflation data.

people got too negative and we were due for a bounce. that doesn't mean fundamentals changed except today we finally got good news on the wage inflation front. this is the most insttractable issue with hikes the fed has less reason to keep going nuclear and today we got an encouraging job opening number with the biggest monthly decline in job openings in two and a half years while the number is still high by historical standards, it's moving rapidly in the right direction which makes us feel maybe the fed is making the right decision i know i felt that to be the case and if it is the case, could it be time to take a different attitude toward the market to answer that question we're going offer the charts with larry williams the legendary technician and historian the number one expert in the space since i was indeed a zit encrusted teenager, i have makeup you can't tell. larry has written over a dozen books and created technical indicators you can find on his

website i really trade.com everybody uses it. he's got a stunning track record since the start of the pandemic. i say this every time because it bears repeating. larry is the guy that called in april 2020 back when everybody else was scared out of their whits by the covid lockdowns stocks like the economy had no future the market bottomed. we couldn't bring ourselves to believe it yet it went back to normal in a month and nailed it calling one of the greatest rallies i've seen at a moment when hardly anyone else wanted to stick their neck out now, he's been also doing something you should be aware of and i've shared this with you, repeatedly this year that we had to get through the historically horrible month of september before we could have a sustainable rally but we would have a sustainable rally past september. how is that looking? right now williams is feeling pretty bullish based on history he wouldn't be surprised but he expects a

meaningful bottom followed by a strong run through election day. he thinks you should be prepared by a perfect buying opportunity -- i should say especially if the market gets repealed historically looking at midterm election years, larry tells me if you bought the dow jones on the first trading day of november and sold it before the election, williams points out you'd have 12 wins and one loss in the last 13 election cycles i'm calling that more than luck. take a look at this chart of the s&p 500 futures in black with what williams calls the true seasonable pattern in blue this is based on the historical action of any given point in the year he knows the market tends to bottom in late to mid october and that's often followed by a very powerful rally. of course, we're having this up here you know you got to be it. now check out the dow jones industrial average same story

dow has a double bottom from mid to late october with a tremendous run in early november in short, history tells williams we keepgoo good buying opportunity. we had a nice rally. then we might have a leg down but i want you to be able to buy the leg down not sell it that's what is so important. finally, let's talk valuation. historically the average price of earnings multiple of the 30 stocks in the dow jones in industrial average oscillated between eight times earnings to the low and 25 at the highest. the current multiple for the dow is 15.6 times earnings down from 22.5 times earnings at the end of last year the market was very expensive. does that mean the market has gotten under valued? to put these figures in context, he has to do the math he has cto compare the average long term stocks 10.54% per year if you include dividends he multiplies the dow price

earnings multiple by 55 m%. the result gives you a rough expected return if you buy the dow at a particular valuation. this is hard stick with me. at the end of last year, the average dow stock was trading 22.5 and put that through the equation subtract by 20.5 and end up with 8.125 and that's two points below the performance, knot worth it. if you buy when the dow is trading 22.5 times earnings, you should under perform the historical average by at least 2.3% 2.37%. now, though, the dow has come back it's all the way down towards trading at 15.6 times earnings run the numbers. we get a projected return of 11. %. about a percent and a half above the historic are l average i'd feel better if the earnings next year would sustain.

but when the information comes from larry, i like to become more instructive is this relationship between valuation and expected return that robust? take a look at this chart showing the action of the dow in blue and the price earnings in orange historically, you've done very well if you bought the market with valuations gotten beaten down to these levels as williams sees it, when the dow trades at 15 or 16 times earnings, that's a tremendous buying opportunity and you can look through time when you see that p.e. go low, it's the time to pull the trigger. he thinks it's time to be on the long side. he says wait for a pull back because the best time to buy is when the market makes the first higher short term low. if that is in two or three weeks, it would coincide with the historical pattern we're using a lot of work for the charitable investment trust. okay we're using it because we think he's going to be so right.

that's why we off loaded stock today and would do the same and look, if we get more encouraging inflation data over the next few weeks, something that seems like a real possibility now, this call could be right as rain. again, a bit of a drop and then advance, bottom line, the charts are interpreted by larry williams the bear market is more or less for lack of a better word toast even if the current rally stalls, he's breaking a big move toward the end of the month or beginning of november. i hope he's right and given i know nobody that shares his bullish view like his bottom call in april of 2020, there may be a lot more to this than just hope let's take some calls. let's go to fletcher in north carolina, fletcher. >> caller: cramer, how are you doing? i love your show thanks for taking my call. >> thank you, fletcher appreciate it. what is going on >> caller: i'm interested in duke energy duk. curious your 0 popinions on the

shares. >> i like duke i think we'll get to a more level inflation rate the utilities have done well duke is one of the best. i like american electric best. let's go to mark in massachusetts, mark? >> caller: jim, boo-yah. >> boo-yah, mark >> caller: all right i'm here to talk about starbucks. i know you're very bullish on them curious about that based on their revenue growth policy in china, based on the volatility and the uncertainty in china doesn't that represent risks that could be a problem? >> well, once you go back and look at the interview with howard schultz, the founder, he's made a very good point they did -- they're doing well in china, better than every other company with this bear market situation they have from covid and so therefore, when things get better, it's going to be amazing with the changes they've made i think that after spending some time with howard schultz in seattle for his retireretiremen

came back more bullish since perhaps i don't know, perhaps the second time when howard came back well, let's just put it this way, i think howard is a winner. the first time he came back i nailed it and this time i think i'm going to nail it again because of howard, not because of me. the charts as interpreted by larry williams suggest the bear market is more or less toast and even if the current rally stalls, he's predicting a big move either toward the end of this month or the beginning of november so he doesn't want you to sell everything into this rally and i hope he's right. much more "mad money" ahead including my exclusive with bio haven. after fazer completed the acquisition, i've been healearng what the future of the company could be. the spac attack, i'll give you my take and all your calls, rapid fire in tonight's edition of the lightening round is stay with cramer.

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out with the old bio haven, in we in the bio haven the drug company agreed to do something bold selling the cprg franchise, including the great migraine treatment known as nurtc to pfizer for 1 1.6 billion dollars. the deal closed yesterday giving shareholders $148.50 per share in cash. the business that got everything else in the pipeline these are early stage prod duct candidates meaning it has more speculative but also got a boat

load of cash they can use to fund these programs. i have tremendous faith in management they made the shareholder as fortune and i heavily rely on this drug and i always say and tell you this is the one that they sold to pfizer. we have to ask, could this be a new bio haven be worth buying? let's take a closer look with vlad the chairman and ceo of the ne new bio haven. dr. george, congratulations and of course, welcome back to "mad money." >> thanks a lot, jim great to be here i remember back to three years ago when i was on your show and you predicted it you knew nurtec would be one of the most important thaterapies o patients it changed the lives of those with migraines. >> thank you for inventing it. today was typical. i knew it was going to rain. the rules say i can pop a nurtec i would be debilitated during the show

i would certainly be able to have a conversation but concentration would be impacted and because of your drug, it's not. other people need to know this one of the reasons i was gold you sold to pfizer is i think pfizer has a lot more ability to tell the story to people. >> you're right. and i'm really proud of the bio haven team that brought this drug to market we made it the number one prescribed oral in the u.s. but we have to get to a billion people worldwide, jim and we can't do that on our own pfizer is the perfect partner, they're going to amplify this drug across the globe. they've been working closely with us. they realize how important of a drug this is going to be they have 125 offices around the world and i'm going to be excited to watch them bring nurtec to patients around the globe. >> as the chief spokesperson for the american migraine foundation, i can't agree more the more people that get this, the more doctors know. i won't mention the over the

counter things they tell you to have and don't work. let's talk about the new bio haven. clinical stage programs, orphan disease for epilepsy, a horrible disease for bipolar, met babolic disorders, these are all very, very difficult illnesses. >> we're just as passionate about helping patients with those disorders as we have been the last several years. program pipeline last year we got an activator for potassium. we think that will change the paradigm in epilepsy like my gram epilepsy patients have a number of therapies with a lot of bad side effects they have to be on the drugs we want to deliver an anti epilepsy therapy without the baggage of older meds. we're in phase one and we'll start the registration trials

next year and this could be the first new therapy for epilepsy in over a decade. >> once again, an illness i'm familiar with and the stigma for people who have this is outrageous and just like for migraine people, particularly women in the work force who were told they just had a headache, this is major. and you can do it. how about speaking of major bipolar disorder, everyone needs to try this. >> the thing i like about kv 7 activation for bipolar, the same mechanism under pinnings why it will work in epilepsy, we think it will deliver efficacy in bipolar. the side effects, if you're going to be on a medicine chronically, you don't want toxic side effects you don't want liver abnormalities. we think we can deliver for bipolar without that baggage and move the field forward and it's been 20 some years before there is a novel bipolar therapy. >> after doing the show for 17 years, i have the right to tell

you i'm treated for bipolar and the -- i'd say the medicines are certainly better but they are sorely lacking of the things and i get my liver checked all the time i do all these things. you know it's just not -- they work sometimes and most people feel that they're better after then unless you have a competent physician telling you you don't know whether you're really better or not. this would be a major breakthrough we're talking about 30 million patients. >> it's a big population, jim. neuro science is an exciting time because we're starting to really understand the path logic under pinnings when you target the right way, you have efficacy without side effects. that's what we did for migraine and we're passionate about the next bio haven will start. >> do you have enough money? the testing will take a very long time and to get to phase three is very difficult. >> it is it's very expensive that's the biggest burden however, we structured this deal with pfizer

that in addition to the acquisition of the asset and the return that the shareholders made, pfizer gave us the initial funding for the company of $260 million that's going to bring this forward into our phase three programs and in addition to that they're a 3% owner of the company. we'll have sufficient fund eing for this next year. >> i have to ask this. i think i'm so -- it's so important that these drugs work, that i have to ask you, did pfizer not want to buy them themselves or did you not want to sell them >> so our focus was selling the late stage asset, the majority commercialized and we needed help with that we could not bring this drug to a billionpeople world wide if i did that, it would be a mistake, right >> agree. >> so we sold that asset we believe in these other assets so we want to bring them to market and hopefully, at that time then think about what potential partners. >> all right look, doctor, chairman ceo of bio haven and congratulations for everything you've done for

shareholders most importantly for patients like me and potential patients like you who think right now that you can go to the drugstore and buy something, something for migraine and you're dead wrong this is the stuff that works "mad money" is back after the break. >> announcer: coming up, cramer takes your calls and the sky is the limit. it's a fast fire lightening round. next (vo) the fully electric audi e-tron family is here. with models that fit any lifestyle. and innovative ways to make your e-tron your own. through elegant design and progressive technology. all the exhilaration, none of the compromise. the audi e-tron family. progress that moves you.

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it is time, it is time for the lightening round

and then the lightenning round over are you ready ski daddy? let's start with peter in texas. peter? >> caller: hey, jim, when is it going to be time for the higher interest rates to buy starboard? >> i like it in this big dip 9.46% yield is good. let's go to steve in illinois, steven >> caller: boo-yah professor cramer. >> boo-yah, steven, what's going on >> caller: i'm a college student and member of the cnbc investing club and i want to thank you for all the work you and the rest of the team put in every single day. >> thank you, thank you. jeff is amazing. jeff is amazing. thank you. what's up? >> caller: i'm calling about a stock that had a good report last quarter but has been straight down since then what are your current thoughts on cisco systems? >> boy, is that a good depiction? chuck robins delivered and nobody cared but i like a stock nobody cared because when it snapped back, it will snap big

stay long cisco. let's go to mike in california. >> caller: how is it going, jim. love your energy and what you do for the small investor. >> that's why i play every day what's going on? >> caller: not much. dealing with ridiculous gas dealing with ridiculous gas prices out here

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searching for the missing in southwest florida. i am shepard smith and this is the news on cnbc. how many victims have not been found? >> we are not certain who is missing and what those numbers will be. >> we are with the search teams and valerie castro helps veterans mobilize and clear their homes. october surprise