see crude, both wti and brent, turn higher, not only because of the headlines and the confirmation of this headline never from opec, but because we saw bigger than expected drawdown in inventories in the u.s. last week, as well. >> yes there's firm economic activity demand side seems s okay yields up, stocks giving back a third of the two-day gains at the moment. >> that'll do it for "squawk on the street." "tech check" starts now. good wednesday morning wel welcome. i'm carl quintanilla with jon fortt and dierdre bosa nasdaq is down 2% and continuing to fall. why one strategist says it is time to get bullish, as others warn a recession could be ahead. plus, a lot more on musk's big capitulation what that means for the man, twitter, and the banks this hour and, finally, your valuation is wrong that's moffat's take on the stock names this week. we have the analyst behind that call later on in the hour, jon.

carl, before we get to the markets and tech's big fall today, not as big as the rise the last few days, let's start with imaelon musk and twitter. musk agreeing to buy twitter for $54.20 a share, days before his trial. he is scheduled to give a deposition tomorrow. this comes after a drawn out legal battle that has been giving the world a glimpse of his texts, particularly over the wee weekend. twitter stock soared 20% to the close yesterday on this news even if a deal goes through, a lot of questions about the business stories still remain. how is elon musk going to make money in this broader ad slow down how is he securing financing as banks face prospect of heavy losses for the deal, and what exactly this means for his brand and for tesla's brand. d, the highest margin product in elon musk's portfolio is the brand of elon musk as this sort

of wise-cracking billionaire genius, kind of this generation's tony stark. this twitter transaction, i think, threatens that. this was just a blunder from start to finish. a bad investment followed by a bad takeover process followed by a bungled attempt to get out of it now, the geopolitical tensions that come with twitter probably threaten his other brands and portfolio. >> you mentioned tony stark. i'll go d.c. and mention harvey dent and the "dark knight. >> i thought you were going batman. >> i am. you either die a hero or you live long enough to see yourself become the villain, right? this is the moment for elon musk he's had so much success, maybe as a brand, as a marketer. he took on the auto industry he took on nasa. can he take on social media? you would think this might be an easier cast, but many have stumbled before. when it comes to twitter, in particular, carl, his idea to create this sort of super app, is he going to be able to do that

again, this has been tried many times with meta, paypal, uber even, and it is not the same landscape as a place like china, where that works but, again, there's this belief, perhaps, and we've seen this through the text messages, from billionaires, investors across silicon valley, there is this belief that they don't even need to see, they don't need to do the due diligence, don't need the models, just believe in the man. that's, you know, really the question going forward, whether he'll be able to succeed no one knows. >> yeah. we just had a long discussion with the former ftc commissioner about how platforms are under pressure to get smaller, not bigger it's hard to imagine that, somehow, this is going to be folded into a banking and consumer and everything app, as musk says. although, today, it's same the company is about to get a lot less attractive, especially when you fold in the incremental security concerns, the staff departures at any rate, they say utilizing the undertechnology is going to have to involve a new platform

in some fashion. >> well, he has spent the past six months taking a sledgehammer to it. i mean -- >> yeah. >> -- almost literally the cyber shot was the one they took a hammer to he's been attacking the credibility, attacking executives and employees, attacking quite a bit. even his partners now, d, potential partners, potential investors, ended up getting their dirty laundry aired a little bit over the weekend. that is one of the challenges that he'll have, i imagine, to sort of clean that up and bring his many friends along now in helping him run this he has lots of other stuff he is in charge of. >> which brings us back, of course, to the question of financing. there is only so much elon musk brand can do we're in a very different market, carl, than we were back in april, when this idea was first pursued, whateve you want to call it. credit markets changed it is likely the banks would almost certainly offer this debt

at a steep discount. what does it mean for them and equity investors, as well? we have the text messages, but we don't know where they stand after musk took a sledgehammer to the company and its reputation. >> not a surprise and not a coin dens coincidence that tesla is down 5%, taking you back to the middle of july let's dive into today's declines tech may be losing the rally, but our next guest says there is reason to be cautiously optimistic, watching semis and more of the richly valued parts of the market. we're watching the opec meeting happening in vienna and the production cuts coming out of there. let's bring in paul hickey great to see you thanks for joining us today. >> carl, what's going on >> so is the take that a couple of 90% up days in a row is bullish? >> so, i mean, i think the 90% up days in the extreme breadth measures we've been seeing, it is a function of the day-to-day moves.

they're being driven entirely by macro forces there is zero to do with fundamental stock characteristics driving market returns. these extreme breadth readings, you know, cause very, you know -- the activity like we've seen the last several days going beneath the surface, some of the technical indicators we've been looking at are showing some positive divergences here for starters, you look at the -- we made a new low in the s&p 500 in the tech sector last week, but percentage of stocks over their 200-day moving averages, and the percentage of stocks making new lows actually was lower than what we saw in june fewer stocks were making new lows when you see that scenario, it's the idea that investors aren't throwing the babies out the bath water anymore. they're becoming more discerning in their sales it's not just a all or nothing

type of mentality, or it's less of an all or nothing type of mentality. so whathose are things to watch. you eluded to it earlier, as well, with the high multitude stocks interest rates have been rising, right up to the quarter end last week, but the stocks -- some of the stocks that have the highest multiples are actually outperforming broader market here if you look at the 50 stocks in the russell 1000 with the highest price to sale ratio, the strain to the broader market bottomed in late may/early june. they've been outperforming ever since then in a steady fashion the market looks out, you know, six months forward, maybe that's an indication that investors are looking to -- and you were talking about it in the last hour -- not necessarily pivot, but at least a pause. >> right i mentioned semis earlier, as well is that a function of their

cycle moving so rapidly, the names having been so washed out this year? >> yes you brought that up, as well i forgot to mention that so semis, they've been washed out. they're actually one of the only groups in the tech sector that's trading at a discount to the s&p 500. the other sector trading at a premium based on the ten-year average something to think about again, what they did last week on a relative basis, semis need a new low, but on relative basis, the relative strength versus the s&p 500 has yet to take out the lows -- i think for the semis, it was in early july. rel relative strength. they got close, but they didn't quite get there. as long as that holds, something to, you know, as you said, i hate the term cautiously optimistic, but it is a positive divergence that you can -- the market is telling you something that maybe the headlines aren't telling us. >> paul, what's not running

right now? you mentioned that high multiple stocks have actually been doing pretty well, counter to what some people might think. apple started underperforming over the last few days, but is there a category you see, particularly in tech, that perhaps isn't getting as much interest as one might assume from the overall movements >> well, so, jon, what was -- so many areas in tech that were outperforming earlier in the year, the low multiple stocks, those are actually -- those have actually started to lag. those have started to fall now it's what you tend to see in a bear market. you tend to see everybody start to, you know -- everybody gets taken down at one point. some of these names are starting to underperform while they outperform going forward even more lower multiple tech stocks in some cases that's an area, as far as valuations are concerned when you look as far as sector

basis, some of the highest multiple stocks come from the software sector, and they've been holding up a little bit better in these last few weeks versus what they were doing late last year while the nasdaq was still rallying and then earlier this year in the early stages of the decline. >> paul, stick with us we're going to continue this conversation but i do want to bring in cross mark global investment cio bob dole, predicting a higher chance we'll see a recession next year. bob, what do you make of this conversation if we're heading into a recession next year, do you think, again, this is a relief rally? we've got further lows to reach? >> yeah, i think we're going to have lower lows, but this rally, as paul pointed out, has a lot of signs that are better than many of the other rallies. probably further to go obviously not today. it was too much, too soon. but we're reiterating some of the names that lagged so much earlier, beginning to do a bit

better so getting a little bit more cyclical, higher bait in the portfolio is what we're up to, especially in the weekdays, thinking we're in a bottoming process. >> bob, if we're going to see lower lows, what causes that i mean, if you think that the fed is basically, or at least more than halfway there on rates, maybe a few more, but then a pause, why wouldn't this be a good time to buy? or is it is there risk something breaks here in the meantime >> well, we are adding, believing that, you know, the 3600, 3700 level, it pays to put some more emphasis in the portfolio. what could get us lower lows you know, we need some patience here the fed is not done. we may see an end to it at some point in time, but last i checked, the earnings yield and the inflation rate are the wrong relationship were a bear market bottom we have never seen a bottom until the earnings yield and inflation go in the other direction.

i think there's more to go and the fed may be successful in what they've done in supply chain improvement to get inflation down to the 4% to 5% level, but they keep talking about 2% if they're serious about 2%, there's a long way to go. >> bob, we talk about what central banks are doing, what the fed is doing, what government policy is doing i'm fascinated and somewhat concerned by what we see opec doing this morning, which, to me, seems to be actually working against what some other governments around the world are trying to do in the face of this shaky economy. the moves to subsidize energy are, in fact, going to perhaps subsidize opec country profits instead. how do you factor in policy that might get diluted by sort of geopolitical, economic cross

cards? >> with great difficulty your point is a good one the commodity complex to include oil, as you know, from the high not that many months ago, has come down a lot. oil down 25%, for example. now, you've got opec saying, "hey, we want to firm this up a little bit we care about our revenues." they're operating with their own interest in the short term in mind of course, here in the u.s., we could turn the spigots on, too, but we've chosen not to do that. so this is going to create a little more tightness in the price of oil as we're witnessing even today. >> paul, when it comes to technology, i wonder what you think about the characteristics, maybe even as you look at the charts, of companies that are able to differentiate enough that these macro, you know, headwinds don't matter as much when will we be able to identify who is able to battle through this >> yeah, i mean, i think just looking at what the stocks are saying, and you look at, you know, to the point earlier, you

want to look for stocks -- you know, we're seeing smaller number of stocks making new al lows last week in the tech sector as yeswe did in june we have to look at the stocks that haven't made real lows. the large cap space, you have apple underperforming a little bit, but it hasn't taken outth lows from earlier in the year. amazon hasn't taken out its low from earlier in the year on the high multiple space, you have cloud flair or snowflake with the highest multiples those stocks have held up very well compared to the market since june i mean, i think those are names to look at whether the market and the investors are focusing on those names, even as they -- even as your macro backdrop starts to look worse you look at a name like amazon go back to the dot com bust. that stock bottomed in 2001. the broader market didn't bottom

until late '02 the market, even in a rough environment, has a way of discerning winners from losers >> bob, you know, looking forward to jobs friday i mean, obviously, the market sort of primed, you could argue, to rally on a weak number. even if the number is in line, i wonder if you think enough of the market has absorbed the idea that, you know, we're going to be working on this we're going to be chopping this wood for a while might not necessarily be bearish on friday. >> carl, i think if the number comes in as expected, the market is not going to like it a whole lot. the market it is in the mood for weakness we saw it with the jolts number, and i think it wants the same thing with the number on friday. so good news, that would be a full report, i think, would be interpreted as bad news. the market want ss to see econoi weakness so the pressure on the fed lessens somewhat

>> finally, paul, you know, we're so focused on the macro here, on jolts, on non-foreign payrolls, inflation data, but, of course, we have an earnings season about to kick off i wond feer if you think invest are complacent will they look past the quarter? will it be worse than expected what are you looking for from guidance, and how much do you think the impact will be on the broader markets? >> yeah, i mean, i think that's the big question going forward you know, what we have seen so far, you know, analysts have been lowering expectations the negative revisions in the tech sector has picked up over the last week. it's not at historical extremes by any stretch, but analysts are lowering their numbers on the other side of the equation, we haven't seen a whole lot of pre-announcements to the downside from companies you know, that would be something that normally would make you optimistic, but i wouldn't put too much faith in that at this point because we've seen a lot of companies in

recent earnings reports come out of left field and lower guidance or come up with a real bomb of a report without giving any preannouncement. it's nice that we haven't seen these warnings so far coming into earning season, or we haven't seen a large uptick, but, you know, that's just something we have to continue to watch going into earning season. that'll be the big question. what do companies say about the outlook going forward? >> good point. can't hang your hat on it. paul hickey, bob doll, thank you for being with us. talk to you soon. >> thanks. still to come, moffat nathanson arguing your valuation is wrong when it i comes to software find out why next. "tech check" is just getting started.

let's get a check on uber. two stories here suggesting that perhaps tight labor supply could be easing. first, according to an interview with the "ft," global driver supply is 70% year-over-year they say that there is no driver shortage anymore the company announcing a new return to work guidelines, requiring employees to be in the

office two days a week, tuesdays and thursdays, beginning november 1st uber drivers and corporate employees are back in the cars, back in the office the other side of this, though, when we look at uber, we always have to look at lyft i texted them this morning to see if they were finding the same driver supply issues. no answer back this is a company worth less than $5 billion, lyft they've held up well, but they're coming from much lower basis. they have not even come close in a long time to those ipo prices. >> yeah. it's kind of good news, but i think in the macro sense, it's also kind of a yellow light. because the reason why driver supply is improving is, you know, the drivers need the money now. the savings rate has been coming down people got big credit card bills to pay as we're coming into q4 that raises questions, also, about demand and how much

discretionary income there is going to be. we'll see if people are taking ubers to the mall. now turning to software. your valuation is wrong according to moffettnathanson, which argues prices could fall 20% for some names as valuations come down across the board here to break it down, sterling audi, who also points to z-scaler as a bright spot in september. sterling, you're not saying, though, to stay away from getting into positions in software entirely. how do you read the market right now? >> yeah, we think your last guest put it right, we're going through a bottoming process. we think we want to be averaging into software, even though there could still be potential downside in the near term as volatility continues but what we've seen through the years is that software does tend to turn but for all the fundamentals actually turned

investors realize it is a durable space, one with the best growth across the economy. that reflects in the stock price performance earlier. >> how richly valued do you find this category of young companies with good models, perhaps distinctive technology, but no profits? >> during bear markets, the companies that tend to be newer, smaller, premium valuations, and losing money take it on the chin, and they fall. again, as the last guest pointed out, you take a look at a cloudflare or snowflake that has high relative valuations you know, they took it on the chin, but now we're starting to see that really holds in that growth really matters as valuations stabilize, if you're not going to get a lot of multiple expansion, then it is going to be growth that ends up driving a lot of the shared performance. that drives some of our positive outlooks on companies like

cloudflare and data dog. >> auty, happy to be talking about this subject, looking at valuations in light of stock-based composition, debt on the balance sheet, but what happens now? do you expect companies to start to use more cash for compensation would that be a good trend would that eat into the free cash flow and, thus, maybe hinder their ability to go on the offensive or innovate at a time like now? >> we're seeing a mix in terms of what software companies are doing. some are racketing up cash compensation as a competitive weapon to neutralize attrition others are doing, let's say, special grants in terms of rsus and more stock-based compensation, even though the stock those employees have is worth a lot less than where we were back in november. i think it is a combination. ultimately, what we see through the cycles is as the market stabilized and the ipo market starts to pick back up, where

there is the opportunity for employees to move to the next private company that may be the next big thing, those are the ones that drive a lot of the stock-based compensation by no means do we think rsus, which is the primary vehicle for stock-based compensation, is going to go away in fact, i think it is still going to be an important instrument for, you know, attracting and retaining some of the best talent. especially around sales and developers >> sterling, it is a fascinating list, and i'm looking where the variants between the bloomberg and calculated ev is the smallest it is usually the larger names, adobe, microsoft is it a function of size >> yeah, it really is. you find that on a relative basis, that the stock-based compensation has a percentage of revenue the size of the grants, really stands out in your smaller companies. as you get to the larger size, you tend to find a balance also, you take a company like ad adobe. adobe has done a very good job

neutralizing stock-based compensation through fine-backed stock. this is where the big argument comes in should stock-based compensation, which is a bigger vehicle in software versus other industries, should we look at it as a cash expense or not our view is you really get a better reflection in values a company, looking at the share impact, at the dilution, in the enterprise value, the fully diluted share count. because looking at it as a cash expense doesn't seem to make sense. that number gets locked in at the time the grant is given, and it doesn't change whether the stock doubles or whether the stock gets cut in half so i think your larger companies have kind of normalized. they're doing a better job on the buybacks that's why you have the differential in large versus small. >> important take for investors to consider now that we're looking at that kind of thing again. sterling auty from moffettnathanson, thank you. >> thank you

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welcome back to "tech check. i'm carl with deirdre and jon. we have another day of outsized breadth, though this time to the dow downsize nasdaq falling big another day, off session lows but only a handful, in fact, four stocks in the green on the ndx as of now let's get a news update with seema mody. >> hi, carl. here's what's happening this hour opec plus nations have agreed to cut oil production, q quotas by2 million barrels per day. cnbc is reporting that will translate into actual production cuts of 1 million barrels per day. crude prices are near the highs of the day, building on sharp gains in anticipation of the cuts

let's talk housing mortgage apps sinking another 14% in the latest week, pushing them to the lowest level since 1997 soaring interest rates and hurricane ian combine to throttle mortgage demand that's a concern there. growth in the services sector is stronger than expected ism's non-manufacturing index topping estimates in september the report also shows prices paid by businesses for inputs fell to a 20-month low and alec baldwin and producers of the movie "rust" settled with the family of slain cinematographer halyna hutchins, who was fatally shot on set with a gun held by baldwin during filming last year. details on the settlement have not been released. any agreement would not stop prosecutors from bringing criminal charges production of the film is expected to resume in january. carl, back to you. >> seema, thanks so much. we've been talking about twitter for most of the morning. elon musk making headlines after news he is reviving the deal to buy twitter. how is he planning to pay for it, though robert frank has more on that

this morning hey, robert. >> good morning, carl. this is going to be expensive, ask not just for elon musk remember, he committed to provide $33 billion in equity for this deal. the question is, whether he raised enough cash already or whether he has to sell more tesla share. he sold $15.4 billion of tesla stock. first back in april when he tweeted, "no further sales planned after today. "and again in august he is getting $7 billion in vc investments from larry ellison and mark andandreason, and $4 billion in twitter he already owns he has $27 billion of the money he needs, leaving more he may have $4 billion left over from last year's stock sale. add it together, depending how you count that, he may need to

raise $6 billion to $10 billion. he may need to raise $3 billion or more. another challenge is the bank debt morgan stanley and others committed to loans of $12.5 billion. some of that they're going to have to resell to invesers credit markets tightening. they could end up losing hundreds of millions on the loans and need to offer interest rates of 15% or more just to get people interested. also, guys, look at tesla today. it has lost over $60 billion in market cap since noon yesterday. >> yeah. >> when we learned of this deal being back on the table. tesla losing about a twitter san a half in market value since yesterday. >> ouch. that puts it in perspective, robert twitter and a half back to the bank debt, though, so they basically signed this deal in april. we talked about this earlier, when the credit markets looked differently. since then, we've had citrix

the bank took a less on that is there any reason to think that maybe there was some kind of time line or expiration when these kinds of deals with signed obviously, this has taken so much longer than maybe originally thought any provisions in there? or is it pretty much a done deal, that the banks, when they try to resell the debt, will have to eat that loss? >> well, there was an expiration unfortunately, that expiration is all the way april 2023. they're within the expiration. there is very little wiggle room for the banks to get out of this, and that's why they're just going to have to price it to get rid of most of it, at what is likely to be a big loss just to get it done. already, this was sort of a stretch for them elon is such an attractive investment banking client that, at the time, it was unattractive, but they figured, look, he is a great client this will be worth it over the long term. now, i think they're second-guessing whether they should have done at it at all. >> robert, how much does this

potentially damage that allure of, hey, we want to be involved in what this billionaire genius does, so we're going to take a flyer on this. when the market shifts, as it seems to be continuing to do, does that require a different risk calculation for the banks? >> it certainly does and you can bet that all these banks, morgan stanley, bank of america, barclays, all these will want some payment from him in the future. they're going to come to him over and over, whether it is tesla raising cash, whether it is spacex going public eventually, they're going to want to be at the front of the line for whatever elon musk does going forward. i have no doubt they probably will the question is, will they make back what they lost in this deal >> robert, thanks for that we have more on the musk story in a moment. we are getting breaking news, though, this morning, coming out of opec in the meantime, fairly strongly worded statement from the white

house. our kayla tausche has that >> reporter: hey, carl the biden administration combed through the te details of the o communique releasing a statement suggesting it is not pleased. a joint statement from the national security adviser, jake sullivan, and nec director had very strong words for opec and marching orders for the administration going forward in part, the statement said the president is disappointed by the short-sighted decision by opec plus to cut production quotas while the global economy is dealing with the continued negative impact of putin's invasion of ukraine. at a time when maintaining a global supply of energy is of paramount importance, this decision will have the most negative impact on lower and middle-income countries that are already reeling from elevated energy prices. the statement goes on to say that the administration will be looking to congress to find additional ways to lower energy prices as well as reduce the country's dependence on opec, which it has returned to calling a cartel

and also suggesting that it is paramount to continue to reduce reliance on fossil fuel, which the administration uses to tout the inflation reduction act and some of the investments that that makes in climate change and electric investments, electric vehicle and chargers and the like certainly, it is safe to say, carl, that after a pressure campaign in the 11th hour, this is the direction the administration didn't want to see energy markets go, especially five weeks before the midterm election. >> yeah. after gas prices had been coming down i know you'll continue to track that for us. kayla tausche, thank you turning back now to elon musk and his expanding universe. our next guest says his twitter purchase greatly amplifies his ability to market his companies and himself. advising not to betagainst the billionaire's brand. here to discuss, morton school of business professor, welcome.

it seems like elon musk still has the same twitter account he had before, even if he owns it, but he has a lot more troubles you say no >> well, i think it is a great question, and it is an important point, jon what is going on here, people don't often realize the brand-building exercise requires a lot of money it requires control of the messaging mechanisms that allow you to actually put your positions out there and communicate with people that might be interested in what you have to offer. and so from my perspective, this is simply the idea that you have the power to, first of all, have this direct sort of messaging platform into 100 million people, which has been, obviously, the only way that tesla has communicated any sort of advertising there is no advertising. it is all word of mouth. so the power of this platform just in that domain is super important. think about now, the notion of being able to control that platform in various ways that might allow you to more

creatively articulate, not only your own messaging, but what goes on in terms of the entire ecosystem of the messaging platform itself. so in my view, it is super smart because, number one, he likes the platform anyway. he's on it a lot he has a lot of power, and this is how he messages and talks directly to his fans and this is a way to continue to be able to shape the perception of not only the market for consumers and other clients that might want to do business with elon, how they perceive him and his brand. >> i hear that, americus, but why buy the cow when you can have the milk for free he was already probably the most prolific major tweeter on the platform for free, and now he's got the exposure of being among the group that gets called before congress, that's getting, you know, wrangled by the eu about various platform decisions and its impact on geopolitics.

does that present some risks, as well >> yeah, it is a great question, jon. 100%, there is risk. there is always risk with elon, right? the idea that, yeah, you don't want to necessarily pay for the cow, but if you can do something really creative with the cow that can give you more than just the milk, that makes sense so from that perspective, we always know that elon is very much in these conversations of g geopolitical analyses and other world events, foreign policy events, but that's part of his brand. being able to have sort of control of his platform and to invest it and signal to people that, not only is it an important aspect, but i have creative ideas that i might figure out how to leverage the platform to integrate within the context of the communication initiatives across all my companies, it's something we have not seen yet. it is in his mind. that's the thing we don't see what he is thinking with respect to these things they seem willy-nilly, go,

no-go, but there is absolutely a strategic chess sort of playing strategy that is going on here i think elon is really working on four, five, six, seven steps down the line. what am i going to be able to do with the platform once i have control over the brand it itself, but integrating it into the aspects of my own businesses >> -- being in a period where there is pressure on platforms to shrink and not grow number two, what about instances where he does speak his mind as he did on ukraine this week, and gets basically owned by half the western world? >> but this is the beautiful thing about it, carl i think getting owned is part of the brand. what he is trying to do here is essentially say, listen, i can be -- his whole personais innovation, provocative, unpredictability, and it seems sort of random, but there's a sort of -- behind all this chaos, there is a strategy behind it. yes, he steps in it from time to time, but that actually is a

signal to the marketplace of his authenticity so having these sort of little bumps and places in the road where things go a little sideways, that's part of the mystique that's part of the connection to people that say, like, "i'm kind of like that i'm weird and quirky and these kinds of things. that creates this connection that suddenly makes you feel like, i believe i have a relationship with this man therefore, i'm going to follow him and his vision throughout the future >> and there are plenty of those, americus. he thinks differently. we don't know what the plan is yet. if he explained tesla or spacex before they existed, many people may not have bought that vision. but twitter feels very different. i mean, he pursued it kind of, then he tried to shake it off, and then he didn't, like, this feels different than tesla and spacex he didn't really have a plan is there anything to believe you to think there is a strategy here >> yeah. i think the strategy is that it is a little bit of cofvering the

losses listen, i was going to do this anyway, and i have to pay out money irrespective of this, if i am going down the lawsuit mechanism. why not buy it and own this thing i adore so much? there is back and forth going on there, as well the overall strategy is the power of the word of mouth marketing and how it can be integrated across the platform to me, this whole idea that, to create a car company from scratch and say, i'll take on an entire industry and i'm never going to buy an ad, i'll just create all these passionate, loyal fans from speaking about admiration for what it is i am at a futurist, trying to see the world 200 years from now my perspective with elon musk is, you know, i may or may not be a fan, but i don't want to bet against the guy. the guy has this visionary sort of aspect that says he will go and try to do things, and he won't always be successful, but he has in his mind some kind of chess strategy that he thinks will play out in his favor

>> all right carl ichan just made a lot of money betting against elon musk getting out of this deal, so we will see americus reed, thank you. >> thank you appreciate it. meantime, digital ad players. one part of the market missing out on the rebound. what it means for musk and twitter, that's next wait, i don't do tai chi. i don't do most of the things you see in medicare health insurance commercials. cut! all the ads look the same because the insurance companies all see us the same. humana is different. they get to know you and listen to what you need. they have all-in-one humana medicare advantage plans with medical and prescription drug coverage. most plans include vision, hearing and dental for as low

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model. barclays out with a note, saying names are finally heading toward the trough, but aren't quite a at a bottom yet. they forecast for deceleration ahead. while buy side expectations appear to be low for google and meta, they could still miss this quarter. the firm points to snap as the only name where they could see numbers revised up from depressed levels but shares are down more than 70% in six months, so a long way to go. of course, snap has revised down a number of times, jon q4 is going to be very important. the blockbuster holiday shopping season what effect is that going to have on demand on the advertising model? >> it is interesting if the other names are bottoming, what does that mean, also, for twitter, where, i mean, elon musk, if he ends up with this, as it looks now like he will, he'll need some talent might want to get rid of some talent, but he's going to need even better talent you know, valuation wise, how do you do that?

how do you pay when you don't really have a stock that's going to trade any time soon >> and does he have enough money left over to pay for them? can't use your stock. >> yeah. he's had a good track record in getting people to give him money. we'll see. still to come, a deep dive on crypto's money laundering problem, next. we're back in a moment

let's get a gut check on taiwan's semitoday morgan stanley names the firm a top pick the company also made headlines this morning amid reports it's been negotiating some better equipment prices with suppliers, which could give the manufacturer a boost on the bottom line. stocks up a percent today in a pretty tough take as the dow now trying to defend 30k, just one point below. and the two-yearac bk to 417mism back in a moment sor will work wu on a comprehensive wealth plan across your full financial picture. a plan with tax-smart investing strategies designed to help you keep more of what you earn. this is the planning effect. welcome back to earth. thanks, it was pretty life changing. dude it was eight and a half minutes. i didn't even get to finish my burrito. technology lets you vacation in space, but to get work done on earth... you need more than technology. you need cdw. so with the cisco hybrid work environment, we can deliver the same network experience to all your offices. space spaghetti. no. securely connecting your team from anywhere.

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well, crypto advocates have been fighting falling prices fraud has been an issue for as long as crypto existed where does it stand now? >> it has gotten much better it tries to become more widely accepted and legitimate. since the start of 2020 there's been roughly $4 billion in illicit crypto transfers theft is still by far the biggest moneymaker for criminals. tornado cash service coming in at number 2. it was recently sanctioned by. it calls out three of the newer block chain technologies as the big culprits here.

these don't have intermediaries by design. that sector saw about $1.2 billion in hacks it was about a third of all the crypto stolen. another billion or so came from coin swap services, those let users transfer crypto within or across different block chains without opening an account and these cater almost exclusively to a criminal audience and bridges they act as a bridge across different block chains which aren't always compatible that has helped law enforcement in some cases the colonial pipeline is a big example criminals taking advantage of money moving across this they call this chain hopping there's growing risk from sanctioned and terrorist activities taking advantage of that, and the raegsry department is calling attention

and say some of the large scale attacks are one way that crypto could threaten u.s. financial stability. >> it's like whack a mole. figure one format out and another pops up. up next a chilly sign for amazon we will be right back. i traded my taxicab for a food truck and a dream. i'm larry villalobos, owner of cachapas y mas, bringing venezuelan flavors to new york. people love our yoyos and cachapas. we've become a foodie destination. larry doesn't just create mouthwatering dishes; he creates opportunities. small businesses like larry's open doors for neighborhoods to thrive. support your community. support small business. how will your business adapt to change? you could hire an office full of peyton mannings. what's up, peyton? good morning, peyton.

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one more thing before we go, and that's amazon joining a group of tech names responding to the chilly macro picture. amazon freezing corporate hiring in its retail business for the rest of the year, according to the "the new york times," the retail segment had more than 10,000 jobs posted as of monday night. that said the freeze doesn't cover amazon's cloud business, and for a company that manages more than a million employees this is a drop in the bucket when it comes to cutting back the workforce in warehouse is a lot bigger and has higher turn historically, though in this macroenvironment that could change >> yeah, it's a drop in the bucket but remember amazon the

last few years it's become the number two private employer in the country. so it could be an interesting signal for what the fed wants to achieve, the markets of course we'll see the other big tech companies that don't have enough employees have announced they'll slow or temporarily pause hiring all together >> so many tentacles in the american economy dow still down 300 today let's get to frank holland and the half thank a lot, carl. i'm frank holland in for scott wapner stocks down after two monster days of gains. plus a historic production cut by opec. what it means for energy stocks and the broader market from year our investment committee today and joining me on set kevin o'leary and jim labenthal. stocks as we said are down after huge days. the dow right now down