>> did you watch "ozark" >> i love it marty bird would be all over this. >> just very quickly, yes or no, do the feds have the firepower to control this? >> yes, but the crypto industry has pushed back in the way they're doing it there's been some sanctions they haven't agreed with, but yes >> kate rooney, thanks we'll have more with strike founder and ceo jack mallers at 2:15, "power lunch" begins right now. welcome to "power lunch. i'm contessa brewer. here's what's ahead, breaking point, should the fed slow its pace of hiking we'll debate it right here, because there's too much at stake for the fed to get it wrong. opec plus, how much will it

curb supply? and what does that mean for a sector up more than 40% this year we have your power playbook. tyler? >> contessa, thank you very much stocks are off the lows of the session. the dow had been down almost 30 points right now the losses are mott moderate, about a third of a percent. the s&p off 20, and nasdaq, as has been the case so often, is the laggard, about four-fifths of a percent yields are moving higher despite the higher yields, banks are lower across the board as you'll see in just a moment. goldman sachs is down more than -- 2.3%. jpmorgan a point and a half, and the financials down about 1% the semietf is turning higher, but amd, nvidia, lamb research

lower off the lows of the session. there's a lot of the green, though, energy, oil stocks moving up as crude jumps on the back of that production cut announced earlier today, over in vienna by opec contessa >> tyler, the fight against inflation is far from over do the risks of more rate hikes outweigh the reward? in today's ism report, improving supply chains cause service inflation to decelerate last monday it dropped to the lowest reading since jan war of 221, but a separate report shows that labor market strength with private companies adding 208,000 jobs last month that was more than expected. should the fed pivot and change its hawkish stance, slowing the rate of hikes, or shoo the central bank continue on its

path with i have is steve tanly, chief economist at amherst, and ed yardani good to have both of you with us if this was football, there would be a lot of armchair quarterbacks, right? but i have to start with you, steven what do you think the fed is getting ride >> well, they fell way behind and let inflation get out of control. unfortunate they don't have the luxury of looking around the corner and hope things will slow down i think they have towring inflation out of the system. that means finishing the job as chairman powell and others have indicated. >> all right ed, is there anything that you think the fed is getting right >> back in all of 2020, when think decided to prioritize

getting -- and not worry too much about inflation >> i think what the fed is not paying attention to it's quantitative tightening so when you look at the whole package of monetary tightening they have already done quite a bit in early november, but then pause and just see how this plays out. the big risk is something will brake. before they actually run inflation down >> you know, steven, we saw the fed tapping the breaks did that work out then?

and could you. >> hes what they're suggesting it has to err on the side -- until they see more concrete signs that the label market is cool and more importantly that underlying inflation is cooling, it's hard for them i think to stop at this point >> i think they've gotten to neutral but they still had a way to go. >> you've got a stronger dollar, all of these sleeves acting as

rest restraints it's hard to practice this kind of tightening without breaking in glassware along the way what is the bigger risk? is it high and sustained inflation, or the risk of a painful recession? i think right now they kind of go hand in hand, and he made a good point fed officials are saying that they said to raise interest rates i think it's just another way of saying that they decided the only way to bring inflation down is with a recession. so instead of the fed and the economy, i boo think -- as soon as march, in seven months, 300

points they have to acknowledge that bringing it down will take some time if you do it too rapidly, you're going to get all kinds of unintended wicket consequences coming look with a recession we saw that warning, it's not just about the -- but also what happens around the world one ceo and one board member, and both of them brought up what they're seeing is this will not be a recession like we saw in 2008, 2009

then they adopt think it will be the kind of personal painful. >> i see, if you can describe what i see in different ways, a soft landing, a rolling recession we've had mid cycle slowdowns so i do think this economy will not be able to go into the typical hard landing. which is the worst alternative, not taming inflation or enduring -- >> if we call a recession,

that's something that's easily corrected, right they can put back on rates every day is another day people get more acclimated to it. they made a bad my take, and unfortunately this is the price we have to pay gentlemen, thank you very much always great to see both of you. we appreciate it. unless the fed changes direction, our next guest says the recent rally was more about oversold conditions and not improving fundamentals he's bringing stocks he thinking

will do well michael cuggino is the permanent portfolio family of funds. always good to see you, sir. >> good afternoon. tyler. the last week of september were quite the opposite >> a bit of a breather today unless the fed and central bank try to change course, i think this rally is another bare market rally you know, where market conditions are deteriorating, earnings estimates are coming down. the debite right now is recession or killing off inflation. that's a real debate , but they were very oversold in late accept.

it's not unusual in bear markets to have rallies in the middle of them it's not that surprising whether it's a lasting bull market and the start of something more, i think it's too early to tell. >> your pickets come from the garp school, you can't get more diverse than that. >> yeah, very different markets, though >> we're big believers that energy prices are going to go up again. i think with opec's news that they might cutting, maybe not

using a strategic petroleum reserve for a while, that would be a natural uplift to energy prices so i think for the long term, chevron pays a great different in a market where there is going to be demand they have pricing power. they do a good job of controlling costs, so a patient investor with a good different yield, it's a good story free port similarly. i do see longer-term demand. free port is very reasonably priced we have a history of returning money to shareholders, and they do a good job of managing that business and extracting cop earp so patient, long-term investor first republic, regional bank, a great client base, very good at managing the balance sheet, and

i think with net interest margins going up, healthy balance sheets, financials generally, first republic specifically, are decent places to be as well. >> michael, always good to see you, great insights. thank you for the cases. >>thanks, tyler. so much for bitcoin being the go-to, prices plunging over the past six months. the ceo of strike discussion what's next. plus big target products cut. which names will speed ahead we have your power playbook. despite the down day, there are some stocks hitting 52-week highs today. flexshares are carefully constructed. to go beyond ordinary etfs. and strengthen client confidence in you. before investing consider the fund's investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. go to flexshares.com

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welcome back to "power lunch. bitcoin isn't acting much like a hedge, down 70% from the november highs of 68,000, but one cryptopayment company is still raising cash, notching an $80 million series b is the future for crypto still in the payment space let's bring in jack mallers. congratulations on the funding talk to me a bit about how you were able to accomplish that,

when i'm hear from other companies, the access to capital now is very slim. >> thank you thank you for having me. yeah, it's true. i mean, the federal reserve, what are we going to do about that no, it's a different market, much more difficult than times prior, but i think it speaks to bitcoin at large and what we mean to the world. cheaper, faster, more freedom-based payments meetings a lot. we have seen stress growth in the business and tremendous appetite for investors there's a big opportunity, especially in sometimes like now where trust is arguably at a all-time low i think that's what the headline means. >> you already are giving people around the world the opportunity to move money at an instant.

in fact, your 70 million cash app users have access to the platform how do you expand at a time when, quite frankly, you look at bitcoin and crept crypto in general and think, man, i'm glad i didn't stay in that market >> i'm a big bitcoin advocate and holder, but the thesis of the business is we can use bitcoin and in particular the lightning network to make better payments our customers actually don't advertise bitcoin, some may not even know we use it as a technology we moves dollars, clear, or allow you to remit so our customers don't care about the volatility they're never subjected to bitcoin. the money is used to continue to grow that. you have a magic instrument that doesn't infer or require any settlement and that is a huge -- the maim

industries are tens of trillions globally so letting the real world reap the benefits, i mean, there's a lot to do there. that's exactly how we're going to use the capital >> but maybe everybody -- you said you're a holder are you buying more bit counsel now that it's below 20,000 and where do you think it's going? is that still your cryptocurrency of choice >> yes, of course, i'm buying. i'm always buying. i think it's going up. i think the wrong meant model to deploy is why is it not going up, as the rates are going up. how about it this way? what else are you buying who else is that scarce? what else is as censorship defensible i'm talking about defensible, nobody can change the month tear policy in the

asset i hold, is a i don't know, fine, i'm willing to have some whiskey and debate what else. do you want to bee real estate right now? securities bitcoin is the only asset that guarantees you a futurein interest -- the fed is going to be the fed managing the exists fee at currency today is clearly the hardest rocket science problem ever invented by our species bit coins carries the qualities that will appreciate, and i've got nothing but time on my hands. i'm a i don't think gentleman and patiently acquiring an asset, because i don't have to trust anybody. >> there's so much to unpack there. i think, jack. i'm going to leave it there. nice to meet you over our little boxes. >> thank you guys. crude prices are surging on the news, despite efforts from

the white house to deter the plans. kayla tausche is standing by with the n kreismt direct -- >> earlier a sharply worlded statement about the decision by opec we're joined by brian deese. just, first, what is the counterpunch from the u.s. what can you do? >> well, we're disappointed by the decision today, but it's also important to put it in context. we have seen the price of oil country down from $$120 a barrel and we've seen gas prices come down in the united states as well as you heard from the president today, we're going to keep focused on the things ked can try to do. we've made progress, and there is more to do. >> senator martialing said there need to be permanent reform, and then there's a suggestion in the

statement today perhaps there could be some changes to antitrust laws focused on opec and potential more released from the emergency reserves which would be the most impactful for you? >> first, we've been clear on this for a set of weeks here now. we want to see companies, energy companies bring prices down at the pump to reflect the wholesale price they're paying we have historically high presents. >> reporter: but a lot of that is taxes, distribution -- >> even if you take in that, the spread is historically about 90 cents. we're not seeing that spread at $1.20, $1.30 if we take into account everything you're saying, you would see an immediate reduction. we should progress a that. those opposing that should

recognize we need more clean energy here in the united states you mentioned the strategic petroleum reserve, one of the biggest reasons why we've seen downward pressure is the strategic release. that continues to be an option on the table going forward. >> the releases have been stunneded into november, but now the actual level of this is the lowers since 1984. how much could you even consider releasing. how much did that extension have to do with the mid terms >> the last part of the question first. we made a commitment to release -- from over -- we said we would do 180 million barrels and we would do it over six months we're trying to make good on that the sale that was announced and will be delivered in november was part of that effort. in terms of going forward, it's a strategic resource we continue

to have available to you, and will use when it's consistent with national security >> reporter: zooming out there's been more concern about a global recession. earlier this week the united nations called on global central banks to halt interest rate increases, because it it had that will tip the economies over the edge what's your response >> we're in a transition globally here in the united states, we are better positioned to navigate our way through this and the economic recovery in the united states has actual ly helped to sustain economic growth around the world. would working closely to try to

address concerns tick i just take it back to the announce from from opec one of the biggest losers that's one of the reasons why we've got so focused on maintaining global supply, having supply. >> absent in the policy changes, gadbuddy stiffed it would add up to 30 cents a gallon to the retail price of gasoline >> there's a lot of projection let cease see the reaction our focus is on what are the policy measures that can help. continuing to work on getting

refineries to be operating things like permanent reform, all things that we can and should make progress on. >> reporter: it's not the right time to be replenishing reserves the question is we are taking a considered approach to in a way that will provide certainty to the market, and put us in a position that's good for taxpayers. we obviously sold that higher prices we will clair at the as that rule gets finalized how we intend to do that. >> brian deese, we appreciate your time weighing in. thank you for the conversation contessa, i'm interested there,

he was talking about the difference between wholesale and retail prices. if i understand correctly, the retailers are the gas station owners, right? >> right. >> between that wholesale price that's paid to, i guess, the producers, the big companies there's a difference there part of it is profit, but part of it is the higher costs of transporting the product to the retail location, the higher price that the retail location is paying for wages, higher costs they're paying to power and other things maybe some of that difference, which he said usually it's a 90-cents gap, now it's above 120, maybe some of that is not pure profit tiers, which seemed to be the suggestion, but explained by other things. >> what we should also listen

carefully for, the weigh he talked about the strategic reserve still being a tool, it's clear that the administration believes high gas prices are the enemy of a midterm win if they can deploy that tool, keep gases moderate and still maintain energy security, i think you'll see them do that. >> you bet it hits you in the face every day. it's not like a gallon of milk or whatever it is, but the gas price, you see it, you feel it, you notice it when it comes down. >> that's right. enough of that further ahead on the show, everything musk go elon musk selling stock back in august, but even with big backers, does he have enough cash for the twitter purchase? take a look at saolar costs

we'll be right back. flexshares etfs are built with advanced modeling. to fill portfolio gaps and target specific goals. strengthening client confidence in you. before investing consider the fund's investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. go to flexshares.com for a prospectus containing this information. read it carefully.

welcome back to "power lunch. i'm bertha coombs. "new york times" reporting that u.s. intelligence agencies boulevard some ukrainian officials were behind an assassination in russia. a daughter of a well-known nationalist was killed in a car bomb attack. "new york times" says the u.s. did not know ahead of the attack, but are concerned it could escalate the conflict with russia. in iran, national security forces have been deployed to quell protests human rights groups say thousands have been arrested

more than 150 have died in protests that have gone on for more than two weeks. alex jones decided not to put on a defense at a defamation trial to determine how much he should play for claiming the sandy hook school shooting was a hoax he says he ace boycotting the trial, among other things, because the judge does not allow him to say he's instead. closing arguments are set to begin tomorrow ahead on "power lunch. opec cutting oil output targets, and the shockwaves across the globe. plus, we're going to look at how low-volatility names could provide a cushion.

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explodeities and energy power play book. mr. pisani tess new york stock exchange, stocks off the lows of the day, robert. >> we have a really going. we are down a lot, 3722 on the s&p 500. and look, we've moved 60 points. ism services a little stronger than expected. the opec plus production cuts that doesn't help, but look what is leading here, semiconductors and look what is positive? these are big-cap semiconductor stocks of course, we talked about the centering stocks three days in a row, they're up 10%, 15%, another big move up today. chevron is really the only one not participating. the one sector not helping, banks, but even these are well off their lows goldman a big price name, so

that's influencing the dow jones industrial average an impressive midday turn around. to the bond market we go rick santelli is tracking the action rick, what's going on? bonds down, bonds up, it's crazy. >> bob nailed it we are starting to see some buys, and guess what we're slowly turning the ship on what has been mostly a down price/up yield day across the globe. the 28th, i like that day, it was the intraday high. we dropped to 357, but boom, we're right back if you look at the mid part of the curve, they are all up, but very short en, 30 year bonds have given a bit back. bund, same thing, what reversals from 177 back up to over 2% huge

turnaround to well over 4% and finally, the italian ten-year bonds having one of the biggest session on yields moving higher since covid march 2020. human moves approaching 4.5%, what's going on? i can tell you this. whenever everybody else was looking at prices paid down five consecutive months, listen, it's hard to figure out the cycles. one thing for sure, my last couple days, it was short covering today selling is on the heavy side finally two-day of the dollar index, it's up today a penny and a quarter. and most likely there will be pressure on stocks tyler, backs to you. >> all right rick santelli, thanks very much. oil closing higher for the

day as opec announces it's going to cut production targets. brian sullivan is live in vienna, and he will explain. >> moments ago, we actually wrapped an interview with the saudi energy minister. we'll air most of that tomorrow morning. i'm going to summarize what he said, because i think it goes to what rick just talked about. rick tall about interesting rates and central banks, why am i referencing that part of what they said in their press conference, and part of the energy minister said moments ago in an interview was that there is a fear that he central bank moves have been so rapid and so aggressive and based on, by the way, what central banks have said, that they may -- i don't want to use the term crash the u.s. or western economies, but certainly slow them enough

where we could see oil demand drop off, prices drop off, what the saudis and opec plus have said forever, they don't want necessarily sky high prices, but they want similar and stable prices, so actually i asked the prince about central banks, about rates, about being proactive. here's what he said. >> had been successful, effective, because we take matters, we are attentionive now, how we are taatentative, we make sure that, in order -- you have to assertive. so we have to be assertive, preem preemptive, and of course we have to be proactive. >> i think people in washington

would say they were being assertive. he said preempting, but preempting what? perhaps a central bank and slowdown as well what they say, as you know will be challenged, and will contradicted as every level. though he staying away from politics, that's a different side of the family, different part of the government, but opec plus coming in a 2 million barrel cut, which will be more around 900,000, because quotas aren't being met but 900,000 isn't nothing, either, and oil rose once again. brian sullivan reporting from vienna thank you. the sector has been moving higher most of the year, so does

today's new make energy names more attractive? and let's bring in sam morgolin, sam, welcome i see you over there. >> what does this production cut mean over the price of oat, or maybe the next three to six weeks, number one, and what do you see as you look into your crystal ball for oil stocks over the next three to six months >> like brian said, i think it's a responsibility to a demand outlook. i think it's a sure thing that demand will be down globally for the remainder of the year. some has to do with pent-up demand from last year, but there's challenging economic conditions everywhere. in general, you know, i'm much more focused and a lot of energy

investors are more focused on the european energy crisis, which has more to do with natural gas, but if demand is down, the way it's connected t. it's really because of russia, and not that russia has declined, but the prospects that anything could happen in this connection is volatile so some of that risk has ton embedded, even if demand is soft in terms of actionability, i think you have to be focused on companiessh to help europe manage this crisis >> so a couple names you have your eye on, like a lot of people, chevron, there it is again, marathon and new fortress why those? >> yeah, somebody mentioned earlier that exxon was up, but chevron was flack. exxon had a preannouncement.

and then in the fourth quarter, they have a lot of lng capacity that's ready to supply europe out of australia it's far away, but it's available. marathon petroleum is a refining stock, and sort of any commodity price environment. if the risk is macro, and you have to consider recession scenarios, it's very defensive new tore tres is a younger company, but they're celting up a platform to deliver lng to europe it has faster turnaround times than other lng projects, and i think they're in a position no next year to get gas supply into europe. >> sam, thank you for your insights today >> thank you. elon musk finally agrees to purchase twitter will the tesla ceo need to sell

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shares of twitter and tesla are lower today after elon musk's decision to revive the purchase of twitter. robert frank has this part of the story. >> hey, contessa elon musk is funding much of this deal himself, but there are many other winners and losers. he has to put up there 33 billion of this equity to get the deal done. he is raising another $7 billion from vc funds. he already owns about $4 billion in twitter shares. that brings him to 27 of the 33 he needs, so he still may sell up to $6 billion of tesla shares just to get the funding.

morgan stanley and other banks have to put up loans for this. they could lose hundreds trying to resell to investors now, tesla could see more pain ahead, in terms of the share price, the market cap is down co-founder jack doersy supported elon's bid and resigned from the board and could take home over $900 million in cash but that is if he doesn't roll his stake into the new deal, which he could very well do a $500 million into twitter. could make $250 million or more just because of the stock run-up

d.e. shaw third point our hedge funds making money on that arbitrage getting a payday if the deal is done a lot of winners the big potential loser is elon musk not just because how much to put up but fund the thing and grow and entirely new app or business, that could be expensive. >> guys. >> absolutely. talking earlier today about the idea of this super app that is no, it's no easy trick to pull off. > ilto frank, thank you. >>stl come, some volatility picks in today's "three top lunch." we'll be right back. and you are? i'm an investor...in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to... nasdaq 100 innovations like... wearable training optimization tech. uh, how long are you... i'm done. i'm okay.

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time for today's "stock lunches. according to cnbc.com, bringing into trade ceo of kkmful and a cnbc contributor first up, lockheed martin. take it away. >> contessa, lockheed martin only a buyer all workhorses we've seen in the last ten years consistent reports substantial name talk about them being off their high earnings coming out later ins week i don't see the crown joel of this global defense contractor

is up 35 just won a $152 million defense contract with logistics f-35s. and besides this, moving higher above the 50-day high moving average. >> number two would be amgen >> amgen, three quick reasons. a lot of free cash flow. $125 billion market cap. biggest biotech company in the world. you see the pipeline rich and promising however, it's lagged the industry it down from a forward pe ratio and image closer to 15, 16 opportunity mere but buyer of amgen as well. >> why penalized if its pipeline is so good >> hasn't delivered. late stage talk about the drugs so many volatility in, we don't know stage one two or late cycle but there is promise but nothing's

delivered yet. that's why. >> final name in the list. dr. pepper would you drink it >> i love dr. pepper kills me to put a sell rate because i love the commercialed. ryan bosworth. i had the matching tie of ryan bosworth i want to be a fade, lag in the industry down 15% talk about the note that came out from goldman late september. a reason why its lagging focused more on the coffee side. keurig, dr. pepper post-covid, everyone's brewing their own coffee at home normalized a little dent in the coffee side and dr. pepper, love the commercials, ty. >> do you take -- let me talk a broader market take solace from the fact after two very strong updates today the market rallied off lows and now is basically flat? >> i do take a lot of solace from that. talk about a spastic nature. in price discovery mode figuring

out the fed message will be you're seeing a lot coming back. window dressing after last quarter. cautiously optimistic. you're right i feel bottom is in for 2022 amp a surprising test. >> there's a call for you. bottom is in for 2022. from kkm financial, thanks, and for more, write up the markets and go to cnbc.com/pro. that does it for us on "power lunch." >> thanks for watching >> "closing bell" starts now stocks going resilient today gaining ground throughout the session with dow raising a 430 point drop the make or break hour for your money. from the "closing bell" i'm melissa lee in for rebecca eisen. flat interesting day, though. taking directions and a move in treasury yields. dow up by 0.1% and s&p up 0.01% and nasdaq worse of the th