>> very large, very diversified company, very solid position. mining equipment, consumables, tools and devices for the healthcare industry, for pharmaceuticals and biotech. the only reason these are paying dividends, pretty small, but it is on the course, i think we will -- >> thank you very much. three interesting ones. that will do it now for over time. fast money begins right now. >> now on fast, up front, the oil cartel not yielding to pressure to keep supply steady, putting the button administration in a precarious place ahead of midterms where are oil prices going from here? what does that mean for our already fragile economy? the mac plus, stock make a major turnaround with the nasdaq 100 erasing a more than 2% loss to end the day basically flat. one of top technician says -- not to bet that tech will be the leader going forward. -- make the case.

julie wags its tail, macy's on the ball, -- for bank of america eyes on the move, bringing the trade that i am melissa lee this, this is fast money -- nasdaq market -- times square -- on that desk -- garcia -- and steve grasso. we start with oil outrage -- as opec announces plans to cut production by 2 million barrels per day. the biggest cut since the early days of the pandemic. the move and rage of the white house, which has been putting pressure on the group to increase output, and help lower fuel prices ahead of the election for the admin penetration called the decision shortsighted, saying president biden has directed the release of another 10 million barrels from the strategic petroleum reserve next month. is up from their lows last week, how much higher can they climb? guy -- i wonder if the bi demonstration was surprised they had no control over doyle global oil output? >> i love that. listen, as you know, i am an equal opportunity hater. but that comment about

shortsightedness is just so -- i mean, it is tone deaf. what else is shortsighted? releasing energy from the spr. we are now at levels we had not seen in decades. politically expedient, but not done for the reason the spr was put in place in the first place. that's first. second, yeah, we do not have any control, at all. go back to april 2020, by the way, then-president trump was begging opec to cut production, if you recall, because that would keep prices from getting too low. the fact we continue to be reliant on these groups of nations is problematic. to answer your original question, first of all, great call by steve -- going lower, but i think the bottom is in. i think it is higher -- supply and demand fundamentals are in place, in my opinion, for crude to trade higher, and quickly. without people even realizing. conoco phillips, chevron, and exxon are now approaching collectively almost 900 million dollars in market cap, and all

of them are within whispers of all-time highs. so, the stock -- >> in the third quarter, gas prices and oil prices went down, but natural gas prices were up month over month. that is why exxon said third quarter will be strong. steve grasso, this really sort of underscores the issue, though, in terms of the fed. this is a major component of inflation. something certainly that consumers feel that they have absolutely no -- nobody has control over. >> yeah. the guy's point, i will echo a lot of what guys said. i echo 99% of what guy said. but i do believe the price of oil is going to trade lower. you brought up natural gas. natural gas is russia and ukraine. so i will leave that out of the conversation. whenever opec cut production, it is counterintuitive, i get it, but the price of oil usually drops after the knee

jerk reaction. right now, the market has absorbed, or is trying to pricing, a 2 million barrel per day cut. it is not going to be 2 million, we covered it on the network all day long. most of the constituents of opec, the participants of opec, are under producing, not even meeting quotas to begin with. so, it is really going to be a 700,000 barrel per day cut. that is not enough to actually move where the market is, the supply and demand equilibrium. this is an overreaction. this tells you how desperate opec is. whenever they cut, that means they are nervous about something on the horizon. right now, i think it has become political on both sides, of course, where we have the midterm election amping up. only about a month away. but, i still believe you are going to see oil at $65 by year end. this is just a minor blip to

the upside, as the market overcorrected. >> wow. courtney, would you agree with steve that oil s headed lower? >> actually i do not agree with that, i think that is more aggressive on the other side. but you might be right, i guess we will see. but energy has looked really attractive, here, previous to opec making this decision. i think it only is likely to make it more attractive as we look forward, because there are structural supply and demand constraints on energy, that was the case even before today's news. i think when you look later this year, the only problem is it is going to make -- a little more difficult. this is one of the pieces of inflation that had finally come down, we were singing consumers were using this in, in other areas. now they are focusing on those other areas to bring on inflation, but if energy prices are coming back up, it will make the job that much harder to cut interest rates, meaning we could still see further slowdown ahead. i think that is what we will see, but energy, i think is a

wonderful hedge to have in your portfolio. >> courtney makes a good point, in terms of fed positioning and how they will handle it. this is actually challenging, because it is not only a matter of oil increasing. even if oil stabilizes, we have seen that portion of inflation decelerate while the rest of that basket has continued to climb to an 8+ percent per annum. i think this is a very difficult situation. you saw jobs numbers from the last couple days, they have been at odds with each other. but i think this definitely puts a wrench in the pivot or peak inflation narrative. >> zion dummy, does at least tell you there is a possibility in the peak oil is as you think the natural gas is a european problem, but the ukraine issue, supply will remain tight, that means prices will remain elevated on that front. then, you bring up oil prices, that could actually be great for the oil companies, like exxon. >> listen, i understand what steve is saying without question. it makes a lot of sense. i think what is different -- i

hate saying things like that, but what is different this time, again, the supply and demand fundamentals are out of whack. i think a large part of this movement from 130 down to lower levels, to get where we are now, i think it is the market trying to front run what they perceive to be a slowdown in demand, which makes a lot of sense, even what is going on globally. the problem is, the numbers do not bear that out. so, you're hoping for demand destruction. i think the short-sellers correctly so far, but it has not, to fruition yet. i think it goes higher. even if oil were to stay at current levels, again in my opinion, i think it is extraordinarily supportive of these companies that are run so much better than they were even five years ago. >> i recognized steve grasso, because you raise your hand. you guys are so polite, completely disagreeing, but so polite. steve, get in there and tell guy why this supply and demand issue is not an issue. >> the supply-demand issue was there when it was $129 per barrel as well.

it has been there for -- everyone we talk about states that this is a supply and demand issue. then it is an infrastructure issue. then, there is the export- import issue. there have been plenty of issues, but that has been the issue for the last 50 or $60 of the downside in crude oil. so, it is actually counterintuitive, i get that, as far as individual stocks. xle has making a series of lower highs since basically late june, or mid to late june. even though it has popped recently, it is still a lower high. so, i agree. there was, obviously, the best performing stocks were energy. they are run more efficiently. there is no question. i have no disagreement with guy on his premise and his strategy on the energy names. but, i think it has been so frontloaded and overbought right now, that the market usually sets up the most amount

of people at any given point. a energy will continue higher seems way too obvious to me, so that is why i think it goes lower. >> for more on how these latest cuts could impact the global energy environment, and maybe to see who is right, guy or steve, let's bring in -- head of global client -- regina mayer. regina, great to have you with us. >> stephen made an interesting point, the same point in the notes i got, that there is underproduction already. so, how do these cuts actually factoring? how does it impact the price of oil in reality? >> i actually like the prop conversation you all were having. i do think the market overreacted today. what opec did today was largely procedural. they have been under producing by 3 1/2 million barrels per day against the quotas they have. cutting 2 million barrels per day, they are actually just lining up with actual production. -- saudi agreement to cut about 500,000 barrels per day -- the uae and kuwait also making cuts,

they are the ones -- capacity, they are agreeing to cut. i think that is because they want to drive the price higher, they were more comfortable with it in the 90s. they are looking for the goldilocks oil price, and they would like to see higher price oil respected for that is what i think happened today. >> and i asked for clarification? you are saying opec, as a group, as a cartel, is under producing by 3.5 million barrels per day. but in terms of the players who had oversupply, or overcapacity, they are actually cutting. so, isn't there an overall decrease in the amount of oil in the end, anyway? >> i think -- estimating 800,000 to 1 million barrels per day is closer to the actual cut. what i think the market response was way on the high side, relative to what it actually means. i do wonder -- here is the thing i think could be a kicker, relative to what ultimately happens -- the saudi -- seem to be indicating we do not have -- capacity. cutting by half 1 million barrels per day could be giving

them breathing room to try and rebuild their own stock, so there is a bit more of a global oil buffer. -- different perspectives on what is really happening inside. >> how does this play out for the biden administration, in terms of what they will try to do? we have already they will release from the spr, not sure if that will have any lasting impact on the price of oil. but midterms are coming up, so, the administers in might -- i do not want a overreach, but be ambitious in terms of what they might try to do in order to offset those cuts. >> -- this particular meeting -- what the it ministration tried to do. they definitely went out there to try to make an impact. that will have repercussions, in terms of public sentiment. they are not going to be able to release spr barrels equivalent to how much opec can cut. that is not going to be a trade or balancing mechanism that will end up helping. we are seeing gas prices steadily increase at the pumps

in the u.s.. i think those will have, potentially, an impact on -- that is what we have seen the evidence russian try to respond to -- but obviously, we have seen what the outcome was, what opec's decision was. >> hi, regina, it is courtney, thanks for joining us. i want to go because they steve said earlier, which i think was a good point, where he said that there is this structural supply and demand constrictive energy, however, that was the same when oil was a significant the higher price than it is today. i am curious what your response to that would be. opec set aside, with these supply-demand constraints, where do you think oil should fit in there? is it below where it should be? >> i do not think, from a global supply perspective, we are in a much better place than we were in february and march of this year, when the war in ukraine started. there is a lot of unknowns, relative to global supply. think about what noble stocks

did during covid. a lot of that oil production came off-line. a lot of these long cycle investments were cut off, as companies really just tried to survive the pandemic. so, it has taken quite a while for that infrastructure to come back into play. i don't believe we are in the exact same supply-demand fundamentals we were in when prices were over 120. i think when you look at the five-year average, which is something i track closely, we are only about 2.5% outside that five-year average, now. -- well below the five-year average -- stocks and global crude and natural gas supplies. slowly but surely, the world is a building the supply back, and demand has not necessarily come online as quickly as we thought. we are still seeing a slowdown in china, with their covid restrictions. there are fears about what recession might do to reduce demand long-term. so, i do not necessarily agree the fundamentals have changed, but we are still in a high supply situation, with the

potential for -- spikes, that means there will be upward pressure on price in the short term, given the fundamentals. >> how much upward pressure on price, regina? >> i was interested, because some of the analysts -- crude could end, on average, in the 70s this year. i thought that was interesting, would have expected it three months ago. i do think it will get back to double digits. i think what opec is looking for is where things are lining today, high 80s and low 90s, so they can continue to monetize -- they have, while the world -- away from hydrocarbons, given -- high price environment. >> regina, great to speak with you. thank you. regina mayor of kpng -- oil prices to approximately where they are, does that give the consumer enough relief, breathing room, if you will, into the holiday shopping season? >> it should. but with that said, and you

mentioned it earlier, right before -- gas prices are starting to rise again. that must play them both out. crew does not go anywhere, gas does not go anywhere, i think people not acclimated to current prices. so, as i said 1000 times on this show, never underestimate the u.s. consumers' wants to spend. they will do it, especially if prices stay stable. i just don't think that will happen. but if it does, in terms of the stock, i think this price is supportive of still higher prices in energy. >> i think i will take the other side of that. i apologize, guy. you're typically spot on, here. >> apologizing for disagreeing? -- the godfather -- >> guy is the godfather. i think it is appropriate, he and steve are playing polite, so i will follow suit, but still it's press my opinion. i do think our goal is whether oil stabilizes here or not, the trends you are seeing in red, particularly in the multifamily sector of the economy, that continue ratcheting higher.

i think those have the largest and most lasting impact on families' ability to spend. look at credit card data. go down to the auto center, now people are spending on average about $1000 per month in terms of their auto expense. i think they're just comes a point where you are stretched beyond your capacity. then, thirdly, you kind of want to pour on increasing rates. just at some point, i think there has to be some pivot. there is only so much traveling you can do, only so much consumption that can be had, unless we continue to see upward inflationary pressure on wages. that is going to be the end all tell all, in terms of what the fed is going to do. i think we are getting to a point where something has got to give, and the cracks are starting to show. >> coming up, an inventory pilot problem, not for macy's. how the retailer -- competitors. plus i had, stay clear of text, -- chris farrell joined uso t turn on what he tried and true

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welcome back to fast money. while retailers battle inventory glut heading into the holidays, they see this one and has been able to keep the stockpile under control. according to the wall street journal, the company cut back on orders earlier this year after noticing softening data from a store credit cards. at q2's and, your rear up seven -- compared to 30% of stores like target, home depot, and, macy's stock still down about 33% this year but if you walk into a macy's store, guy, which i know you do sometimes, a lot of their holiday offerings will be new. they will not be things left over from the glut of the summer, or from seasons past. >> yeah, they have their inventory up only 7%. i think in the article, they made the point coles was up like 44%. so, they figure that portion out, that is great. but the reality is, there is still a lot to go there and shop there but the problem with macy's's long-standing career been talking about this stock for years. the reason to own macy's, here, i think the only reason, if you

think the market will somehow stabilize, and it will be a short covering rally. because, i think last i looked, about 11% shorted. we have seen it before. but to hold it for a long-term fundamental play, i think there were better places to be. next question is, okay, guy, what are those places? i would say dollar general. although we mentioned they were lowered last night, and lower again today, i still think that is value. >> i did not ask that question, but fine, i am glad to get the answer anyway. steve, this is what macy's in a better position or a worse position? hear me out, in terms of my thinking a better position, has less inventory, new stuff, newsletters, new scarves and all that stuff. at the same time, you have all these other retailers with inventory gluts, marking stuff down. so, if you are a consumer feeling the pinch from inflation, you might go to the 40% off rack instead of the full price one at macy's. >> i agree. with that second thing you just said. so, i think the issue, guy

touched on it, and you just honed in on it really well. they solved one side of the equation, but the problem is, the main problem for macy's is, nobody goes there. so, other than guy drifting around going there, and i get that, there is nobody buying the stuff. so, they adapted. they ordered less, but no one is buying it, so it is still a negative. what i think you are better off doing is what you said. if you look at macy's, i am looking at one month, it is only up to .5%, three months, it is down 7%. but if you switch to nordstrom, nordstrom is up 10% in a month. no one thinks about nordstrom. no one thinks about that stock anymore, but if you also look at tjx and ross stores, there is some momentum there, as well. this is not a would you rather. i actually did a would you rather, but he framed it differently. me, i would rather be buying tjx

or ross stores, or gwn. macy's is in a weak spot. it has handled that weak spot to make themselves look less weak, but they handled the wrong side of the equation. they need demand that they do not have. smacks eileen? >> i'm ot sure you need us anymore, you guys are asking and answering your own questions. what retailer do you like going into the holidays, if any? >> retailers are tough right now, because this will be one of the areas that is easy to cut. consumers are going to feel a pinch -- i know -- think it will be a problem. this is an easy way to cut from, easier than groceries or your gas to get from work. they are really cheap, though. i do think as much as that is a problem, they trade at less than five times earnings, which is less than half of their long- term averages. so, i think a lot of this is already priced in, there could be a play there. but i would be cautious of the retailers, because i think they will have some short-term pain. >> a lot more fast money to

come, here is what is coming up next. >> booms, bears, whichever way you think stocks are heading, our next guest says there is one group that will not be leading the charge. the details next. plus, earnings are right around the corner. options traders are making some deposits ahead of the results. how they are playing the group next. you are watching fast money, live from the nasdaq market side in times square. we are back right after this.

welcome back to fast money stocks falling just matching a third game this is game -- major indices closed out negative, and the matter which the markets go from here -- there is one group you may want

to avoid. let's go -- a bear company -- chris, what are you watching? >> thanks for having me. i think, when we look at these last -- one or two days, and you have a 5% rally, you ask yourself the question, has anything changed? as far as i am concerned, what has not changed is the leadership. i will roll a couple charts to walk you through that. the first, i think is really compelling, this is triple cues top of the market, versus the equally weighted s&p 500 but is telling to us is last week, when the market was down 4%, triple q underperformed. with this we, with the market up for naprosyn, but has also happened? q2 cues have underperformed in these -- stocks we just do not think are your leadership. irrespective of whether the next 200 snp points go up or down.

i think that we want to do is look at some of the big weights, here. let's look at microsoft. this name broke before the s&p broke, in mid-september. it is down the last several days, but has anything really changed below 250, 285? i don't so. i think there will be big resistant going forward. same with alphabet. it was bouncy of the last couple days, a lot of resistance from the 110 to 112 range. there are 51 analysts who cover this stock. 48 of them still have buys on it, that is for a stock down 40+ percent since it peaked. we look at this also threw a few -- spoke relationship, one of them being discretionary versus energy. if something is changing, what do we ee it change in that relationship? even this week, discretionary has continued to underperform energy. another one of those that spoke charts we look at is tech versus energy. that has also rolled back over. we have had upmarket and

downmarket, but what has not changed is discretionary and tech and the q2 cues -- outperforming, and they do not outperform the energy sector. so, we just finished with one last exhibit. i think the anecdotal would say that energy is overbought or over owned, here, but we still see -- 4 1/2% of the s&p. when you look at it over any interval, energy outperformed over the last three days, last five days, last 10 days, last three months, last six months, last one year, last two years. energy is still very much your leadership, here. i think the breadth of the sector is fantastic. we are sticking with that long, it is not tech, it is not discretionary, leadership is unchanged. >> what is the context for this energy call, chris, in terms of the direction of the overall market? >> i think what has been telling all year, we have had

two or three really good bear market rallies. we have had a series of lower lows, and energy has maintained his leadership standing throughout all of that. i keep thinking about where the risk is, here. i think it is still at the top of the market. energy is 4.5% of the s&p. apple is 7% of the s&p. microsoft is 6%. you are still talking about a sector that is one half of an apple. if you look at the flows over the last couple months, even as energy has continued to work, you have seen an exodus from xle -- so, for us to say it is overbought or over owned, it is not showing up in the charts. smacked chris -- good to have you. on the topic of market leadership, we are talking leadership in the energy sector, talking about exxon and chevron, trading nine or 10 times -- talking about lagging subsector in technology, which is trading, depending on the name, mid-20s. how should we be speaking about four multiples for the overall snp? as people are coming out saying, this might be a great

time to start buying. do we need to rethink our mental framework around what is the right price for the market overall, going forward? >> a great question. my partners have done some good work on looking at what multiple -- you would expect, given where inflation is. so, even if we settle into an area over the next 12 months, where, say, cpi settles down to the 3 to 5% range, you're still talking -- multiple on the s&p, that historically would be somewhere in the 14, 15, 16 range, not the 18, 19, 20 range. i think prospective growth stocks and tech in particular, you do not really want to own them when their multiples are in the middle of the range that you want on them when they are very expensive. you want to own the growth stocks with pe and na, not some middle of the range of value. so, i think that is a very important question. i am not sure we are going to get the multiple relief we

might expect in the year ahead. smacked chris, good to see you. chris verona of fatigue is. courtney, do you say energy? that graphic was very telling. >> for any period you layout, energy is a top-performing sector. >> recently, it has been i don't think that will last forever, but over the short term, i completely gree. you want to continue having energy exposure right now. i actually like this idea, which i have been talking about recently, where tech is not what you want to be overexposed do. you definitely want to own it, apple and google are not going anywhere, but i do not think it is something you want to overweight right now, because we look at those multiples, they are pretty expensive right now. even if inflation starts to moderate, it is still likely to be higher than it was over the last couple years, so more expensive assets are likely to underperform, and things like energy are going to still be positioned well. >> alphabet guy, chris said 110- ish, you agree? >> listen, chris, i have to

tell you something -- >> he is in the pantheon of technical -- >> parthenon, pantheon, i don't know the difference, but he is somewhere, right? google has been an underperform her. it has not performed well at all. who's to say it cannot get to those levels. but after this -- stuff -- our crack staff back at ec, -- call those things on the lower thirds of the screen, help me out. >> -- >> -- so good. >> i will or is it so bad? it could go either way. >> so bad it is good. >> okay, steve, what do you have? >> before we get really excited about energy, exxon mobil, let's take that one out, because everybody keeps talking about large integrated name. it is up 62% year-to-date. it just got back to the level

it was at in 2014. so, energy did nothing for years upon years, approaching a decade, basically. did nothing. and now, do you take your chips off the table? or do you think you are going to have another outperformance? i say take your chips off the table. >> ino technician, and they did not stay at a holiday inn, either. but the theory in technical analysis land is, the longer the base, the higher the base. so, if it did nothing, to quote the great louise -- also in the parthenon and/or pantheon -- go ahead, steve. >> i stated that wrong. did nothing would mean it went sideways. it collapsed for the last -- for eight years prior to this. so, it was not as if it was just building -- i would agree with you 100%. you and louise are 100% right about building that base. it did not build a base, it did

nothing. it has had headwinds galore, and now it has started to lift its head. or i should say, it lifted his head aggressively off the pandemic low. i get why everyone is excited. everything chris talked about was performance on a relative basis, yes, on an absolute basis this year. i would say, just take your profit, and laugh all the way to the bank, invested somewhere else. >> the only thing i would add to that, i think it was different than it was in the 2014 era, as energy companies are much more efficient now than they were back then. they were forced to be that way. i think you just put it in a different scenario now than it would be, -- attractive, there. coming up, positive withdrawal options, financial -- report earnings -- how are options traders positioning ahead of the results? next, investors getting their paws on chewy today, she is jumping after analyst stated stock could claw higher. what they are saying for this name when fast money returns.

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welcome back to fast money, financials kicking off key earnings neck, blackrock, jb morning, morgan stanley, wells fargo all on that, but one of the biggest -- in the trade space was another man, that a friday, brian stelter joint is now for the action. hey, brian. back when the market pulled off this morning, we sought traitors come in, the financials started a little off the open, but then we sought called buyer -- 32 -- traded about 10,000 contract -- the span of about two minutes, just under $1.99. these traders basically putting bet that the stock would trade above $33 before expiration. -- call expired just after bank of america's earnings on october 17th. certainly -- play to the upside. traders out there, rather than buying the stock -- people have been using calls to place the upside. that is why -- remain elevated. option premiums have stayed in this market, the reason being there is so much -- going on, these big molds, 2 1/2% moves --

traitors -- own calls -- physical stock. it makes a lot of sense. we own bank of america, but when you look at this stock, such a huge player, with mortgage-backed securities, in the plo market -- inverted yield -- not really that great between bank of america. we still owned it. we like a lot of -- things, but i think it makes a lot of sense to use calls to play the upside ahead of the earnings place, because currently, we could get a significant -- this stock is coming in above its lows in june, that is sort of interesting, here. if play falls, maybe you get a path to the upside, and can -- >> what do you think? >> all about corporate protection, and return on investment. both of which are served by purchasing calls rather than stock. i think it is a great flag, something i would endorse. >> when i look at the chart on this -- financials are not -- i am not crazy about chasing financials. every chart looks terrible to

me. i think if you go into a recession, it is not where you want to be. but of america, specifically, if i look back on the chart, in july, we just tagged that bottom again. so, it looks like it is a sort of short-term double bottom, which -- and it looks better than most of the financials. wells fargo actually looks the best out of all of them. >> brian sattler, thank you. for more, tune into the full show on friday, 5:30 eastern time. >> coming up, barking up the right tree, shares of chile surging more than 10% today. what had investors jumping into the dog pile? details next. and throughout hispanic heritage month, we are celebrating -- teammate and contributed, here is the chairman of aqua media. >> the punch line here is that the latino -- $2.7 trillion of gdp. when we think about the significance of labor force, providing 80% of net new work --

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msnbc's virtual esd impact event -- investor startups -- key investment challenges -- more sustainable and equable future -- qr code on your screen to register. maintenance, shares of chile topping -- today, coming more than 10% after one market research film firms as it takes the pet care for him will be q3 earnings estimates -- sales could rise 11% from last year. shares of chewy up nearly 12% the last month, but still off 54% from their year high. so, what to make of this report? it says in the prompter, let's chew on it. i am not going to resist that. let's chew on it, steve grasso.

-- read a report in preparation for this conversation. i had never heard of the term "household pet formation", but apparently that is down during the pandemic. people are buying fewer pets. that is not helpful. >> yeah, but the pets that they bought, i do not think are gone yet. so, they bought them during the pandemic. it does not matter, they still have to feed these pets. so, it is a matter of -- first of all, off the pandemic low, i bought a dog off the pandemic low, as well. but i am still feeding him. i have to feed him when the show is over, as well. for me, it is about growing sales. it is also about the auto shift. auto shift, now, is up above 72% on their sales, which means it is just literally rinse and repeat. the other thing is, they are starting to offer services and

things that have higher margins associated with them. this stock has not been a winning trade, but it is closing that gap. i think it could make a run to 50. we are in the mid-to upper 30s right now. i think you should probably put some money to work, here. i would say invest in the name. >> i hope those pets are alive. we would like to see proof of life of your dog. -- consumable -- for chewy -- to steve's point, feeding them, even if one off sort of pet accessories, the bed, the chew toys, those are more infrequent purchases. >> i mean, i have three dogs. their stuff is nicer than mine, which should come as no surprise for the viewing audience. last quarter, look, revenues last quarter for chewy were good, the problem is they do not make any money. maybe they are looking at the profitability this quarter, i do not think they will until december. but go back and look.

the stock rallied all into august until they reported -- 49, then it cratered. you are setting up for a similar type of mood. it is all about margins, about how well they are running the business. yes, you should feed your pets. and yes, you should be kind to your pets. but that does not mean these stocks are good to own. again, just my opinion. >> coming up, digital detail -- joint is next to the break on the digital advertising landscape and how social media headlines could change the scene in a big way. more on that when fast money returns. so you partner with ibm consulting to bring together data and workflows so that every driver and merchandiser can serve up jalapeño, sesame, and chocolate-covered goodness with real-time, data-driven precision. let's create supply chains that have an appetite for performance. ibm. let's create.

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welcome back to fast money. elon musk may have reminded bid for twitter, but what will the deal mean for the broader social media space? pacifically, the digital advertising landscape. here with us on a set to discuss that is trade desk ceo, jeff green, a longtime fan of fast money. the company just held investor day yesterday, today, i think you went public. you came straight up to this desk and introduce yourself. >> i did but i'm a big fan of the show. thanks for having me. finally able to be on the show. mike welcome, jeff. great to have you with us. we hear all these anecdotal stories about slowdowns in advertising. what are you seeing at this point?

>> i have long been an advocate that we need something like the vicks in advertising. it would not move as often as the vicks does in the equities market, but if we did have a vicks for advertising, it would be at an all-time high, in the sense there is a lot of anxiety -- the same things causing anxiety on the desk. what is the fed going to do? what impact will that have throughout the entire economy? and cmo's are just looking at what their cfo is going to do, how do i become more responsive? typically that means they are trying to do more with less. that means they are spending on things they could see an roi in, which has been good for our business, even though the overall economy is clearly facing recession. >> i do not want to put words in your mouth, but if a company is trying to be more careful

about their ad spending, they might lean on you more, in order to use that ad spend more wisely, more effectively? >> exactly. when you had to do more with less, you have to become more data-driven. there are parts of advertising that are still not data-driven at all, where a lot of guessing goes into it. but there are parts you can measure really effectively, and there is a whole bunch of new inventory and changes happening. we talked about social a little bit, but to me, the most exciting one is connected television and streaming, where there is a lot coming in that direction, a lot of opportunity, could become the biggest opportunity -- a tailwind for our business. >> the launch of advertisement supported platforms is huge. are you seeing demands for placement already on to these platforms? are there certain kinds of platforms that do better than others? >> absolutely. five years ago, i basically said we are betting our business on -- today, our ipo -- it has absolutely come true. so, that has already been true for us. >> connected? >> connected television. anything streaming. the hulu's and peacocks of the

world. lastly, we heard from three of the very biggest, or over the last two, we have heard from three of the biggest, in netflix, hbo, and disney plus. with all of those in q1 have a significant additions -- that represent one of the biggest tailwinds in the history of our business, and big opportunities for advertisers to finally bring precision to television advertising that has historically been more scattershot and less precise. >> jeff, when we first met, as you know, we were watching a show, i am not the brightest bulb in the picture, but i figure you are just another trading desk. do we need this? -- obviously something. but you would think, intuitively, this environment is probably not good for you. i would submit this is probably one of the best environments your business finds itself in. i do not think the stock is being reported for, but can you speak to that? submit >> you are absolutely right. since the pandemic, our stock is up 300%.

but in terms of the potential of our stock, and certainly what has happened to tech recently, we have been hurt like many of the rest here at but in terms of the potential, we are in this really amazing position, which is that if there is more pressure on the consumer, then they are much more interested in -- solutions, or the advertising on demand -- they are selecting the ads, rather than paying a premium to get rid of them. so, if they are have pressure on the consumers, they will see more advertisements, which is opportunity for us to add value to the base advertisers in the world. so, in an economic slowdown, they need us more. and if things are great, they need us, too. in any condition, i think we do really well. >> you are an advertiser yourself, you enjoy trading stocks, all sorts of things. quickly, do you agree with steve grasso that oil is headed to 65, or with guided oil is headed higher? >> i think oil is heading higher. i am holding position. i believe that, putting my money where my mouth is. i think it is going higher

steve grasso? he voted against you. what do you think of trade desk? >> i think jeff has got to stick to advertising space, where his core competency is, instead of investing in energy. i do like this name, and i think guy brings up a great point. when you look at the ad space, think about what all these streaming entities are doing now. they are all adding an advertising element. so, jeff's business is only going to grow. a couple months ago, he shocked people with the upside, stock traded up 40%. he probably has another couple rabbit in his hat, too. back up next, final trade.

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energy going higher low. i will take the over, here, and i think exxon is a great way to play that. >> by the way, just that he is going to call when he makes money off his oil trades. wreck i will raise my hand and be a proponent of cash. if it is good enough for mr. cache -- himself, good enough for me. >> cash, all right. thanks for watching fast money hey, there "mad money" fans. i'm becky quick. cramer is off tonight. we have an action packed show on this cnbc special, "markets in action." turnarounds and erasing big losses to finish well off the lows the looming threat of a recession left many wondering how to piece together a game plan for the rest of this year and into next. tonight we'll help you make sense of it all. we deep dive into the assets we