while, but closed down but this is not as bad as some of the earlier levels we saw we were down a couple hundred points now down just 77 >> the sun's out today >> there's no rain no rain in the forecast either i think the weekend might be a little better. it's going to warm up a little it will be all right make sure you join us tomorrow, which i'm told is friday, and jobs friday. >> yep >> "squawk on the street" coming up right now ♪ good thursday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer and david faber. premarket does trim some early losses as jobless claims come in at the highest since august. ten-year yield, 3.75, four more fed speakers today our road map begins with oil extending gains as higher energy prices could be on the way on the heels of that production cut. but reports signalled renewed drilling in venezuela, perhaps, might be on the horizon. plus, pressing forward, the

twitter-musk saga continues. we're just going to try and help you make sense of it all and racing to return to growth peloton slashing 500 more jobs its ceo says the restructuring is now complete. >> let's begin with the markets, inflation, and the fed we'll get mester, actually, twice today, jim >> oh, geez. >> were you at all impressed by the s&p unwinding that 2% intraday drop? >> i thought it was kind of amazing, because it shows you that there is -- i know that jason was talking about it, some put that's out there no i mean, i think there's money that feels like, wait a second, the downside is -- we've seen, and we can test it, maybe even fail initially but there's a lot of people who just say, look, we're kind of done with the selling. we have had -- i mean, i thought the leader of the bounceback, the semiconductors, i mean, the semiconductors have been in purgatory since november of last

year that's how long, david november of last year, the semis have been going down let's watch them i mean, the premarket, they're always down because, well, that's what they do. but this was a remarkable turn of the semis, which i just felt were not allowed to go up. >> is it sustainable, though that's the question. >> today's the day to find out >> today is the day? >> yeah, because yesterday, they had a nice bounce. it was very thin trading yesterday. a holiday -- jewish holiday trading, and i do think that what's happened is that if you have a group that has let us down, that was the beginning of the selloff, and that group can bottom, that's often a sign that the -- that we've cycled through everything and now we're done >> should we look back on micron we had our guest only a week ago. >> i was with someone -- with some people the other day. >> i point it out, by the way,

let me just remind people, they had reported earnings but it was the guidance that was particularly poor, but the stock did not go down. >> the zstock went up, and apparently, i said the other day that i wasn't sure how real. it's real. they're spending billions to build fabs in new york they have billions the big issue had been the free cash flow, david, which had gone down a lot >> yes >> but they tend to return capital. but if sanjay were here, you know, and i was upset that they had preannounced and then after that, they also said more stuff that's negative. but maybe that's how a bottom's put in i mean, for instance, mccormick preannounced that things were good, the spice company, and they basically did a little better than i thought. not a lot, but a little. i i'm looking for stocks, carl, that have said bad things where they get a bounce, and the reason i mentioned the semis is their gross margins have been bad. intel announced last time in their report, and i said, oh,

geez, i don't think intel will be that good, but i know that nvidia's in town nvidia is more than a gaming play it's been trapped as a gaming play i think their story is very much how that 40%-plus of gaming is going to go down over the years. so, watch nvidia watch marvell, and then the most bullish one of all was the incredible gain that we had, 2% gain in qualcomm, and at one point, it was down substantially. so i've got a number of stocks that have been down since november, and if they can rally today, i'm going to say that the estimation is going to be leadership going into earnings and then the banks are going to take the baton >> interesting chips, then banks. that's going to be key as for the inflation metrics that we talked about, finally got claims going up a bit. these challenger layoffs, jim, hiring intentions, lowest since 2011, and we'll see if this gets reflected at all tomorrow. >> you know, mr. wonderful was

on, and he was saying that he's not felt any pressure. kevin leary. felt any pressure in his businesses now, i hear that a lot and the reason why they're not feeling any pressure in the businesses is they're not in the businesses that are laying off people i come back to what's going on at meta, and meta -- and david, you know this -- meta is consolidating its offices, but how rare has it ever been that when you consolidate, you actually expand? and i think that the layoffs are occurring in tech and tech-related, not going to be small business because small business has, according to paychecks, pretty good run >> right >> and so, i mean, if you're waiting for small business to be your indicator, you will miss the entire move when the fed stops. >> well, we need to put it in perspective. meta was hiring thousands upon thousands of engineers to help build the metaverse. >> right >> and so, you slow that, but

year over year, you still got more people than you had a year ago. >> yes i don't think that's going to stay the same. >> you think that year over year, they'll have fewer employees now than they did, let's say, in november of 2021 >> i think it's entirely possible entirely possible. look, they feel constrained. they want to make the numbers. that's a little different. carl, when you speak to the people there, they're no longer -- they recognize they're no longer kings. not everybody. not everybody. but there's a lot of people there who say, you know what it's time to rethink now, there was an article in cnbc.com that talked about the death spiral death spiral for facebook. they were not happy about that now, i do, unbelievably, i do work with cnbc.com, and i think they're unbelievably good. so, i didn't do anything about it >> what was involved in the death spiral >> they were saying that 2022 numbers were better than 2021, which is what the -- our dot com used >> i'm sorry, what

who was saying >> meta was saying, look, if you look at 2022 numbers, they're better than 2021 >> my question was, what about this death spiral? what was involved in it? >> death spiral is -- i felt death spiral was extreme, given the cash they have but people are not -- >> they just can't ever beat tiktok instagram starts to fail, reels doesn't come around, and the metaverse is just an endless money pit? what is it >> i'm going to agree with reels only in that analysis. i think that the death spiral may not be as related to page views as much as it is to the money being made but i do know they were not happy with cnbc.com. but the cnbc.com -- because of the chart they used, but cnbc.com has been excellent in its coverage, so i'm not going to sit here and say, you know what cnbc.com got this wrong. >> well, meta is now less than 1% of the s&p 500. that's the lowest since 2015 >> they're not happy about that. >> the peak was '21. they were 2.5% of the s&p.

>> they were moving towards over $800 billion market value, moving towards, it seemed, a trillion, and now their mojo is kind of gone when your stock is down almost 60% year to date >> i'm glad you used the technical term, mojo, because that's it. now, i mean, that farley building, is it going to go to tom farley's spac? then you get farley in there jim farley from ford >> oh, this was the farley post office yeah it is. >> i'm wrong >> they're filling it up >> look, they have a lot of offices in new york. i'm going to say two things. i understand the death spiral because you have too much money for death spiral, but reels is doing much better than people think. >> you've been saying that for months >> i'm going to be vindicated by the facts. >> okay. >> but i think the problem is that people do not post as much on facebook or instagram how much have you posted today >> i don't use facebook or

instagram. >> i rest my case. >> i'm the wrong person to talk to >> okay. >> i don't know if you noticed >> who's the right person? >> my age -- what? >> who's the right person? >> my 6-year-old daughter does -- is tiktok. all her friends are tiktok >> well, mark zuckerberg, who's watching right now -- >> my son does snapchat. >> mark zuckerberg is watching this very minute >> they use instagram, but so does my wife for recipes >> no, that's pinterest. >> which gets an upgrade over at goldman. eric sheridan goes to buy. i'm sure you saw that. >> this is the second one i've seen, and pinterest, uniquely, chose to be like etsy was initially, which is almost anti-commercial. now, they're getting the ads when you go to pinterest and they'll be, like, i don't know, david, something for, what do you do, needlepoint? you're a needlepoint guy, right? >> i don't do needlepoint. >> i don't do anything there's a whole page for people who do nothing people who do nothing, it's got things for you to buy. >> i don't even do that.

i just sit inert >> it's got things for you to do nothing with but pinterest has not been able to monetize anything, because they've chosen not to. they were too pure for monetization >> they were not -- were not chest beaters, as they said, when they went public. >> when you do that -- i think the metaverse, by the way, the struggle with the metaverse is that we're not in it, and when you listen to what nvidia has to say about their omniverse, they have been industrial applications they do not have the kind of -- what we necessarily want >> we will be eventually we'll be in the metaverse. >> yeah, but eventually doesn't cut it when you're talking about the quarter. so, you have to cut expenses, and you have to say to the street, look, we're not losing -- you know, we're indicative we see it. we see that we're losing money we're not, you know -- it's not obscure to us. >> very focused on this meta, haven't you? >> well, the cnbc.com piece was

a breakthrough piece >> is it a battleground stock? >> oh my, it is. it's verdun. >> the meat grinder. >> yes no, it's actually the british on the first day of the psalm >> oil prices trying to stabilize a day after opec plus agreed to cut output by 2 million barrels a day. white house did slam that decision, calling it shortsighted meantime, some analysts say the cut could backfire on saudi arabia with the president now hinting the country could seek to rein in that country's influence. i think the "times" today showed the limits of the fist-bump policy when it comes to the sa saudis >> they're really doing the bidding of the russians. we've got the big convention in china, and david, you might be interested in this -- you might be interested in the phone call you're making. >> i'm just looking at my texts. >> all right >> it's another way we communicate during the show. you know that. >> that's great.

you don't believe me at all. all right, so, here's what's happening. there is -- henry kissinger -- henry kissinger, just as sharp as ever. >> what is he, 97 now? >> i don't care if he's 140. he may be in that new steven king fairy tale book, which i recommend to my friends. there is a talk that he is said that it may be right for the chinese to pivot and that they're -- they might rethink their love for the russians. because it hasn't gotten them anywhere plus, the chinese, they have a tendency to like to back winners, not losers, so i think the russians are overreaching here, and i know that because our president, who is not in favor of -- our president's not that crazy about american oil companies, given the fact that he will not sit down and have a picture taken, might think that mike worth and anyone taking a picture with mike, he's a cool

guy, but venezuela now he's talking venezuela nextwill be iran these are renegade countries venezuela's a renegade country, and he's talking about u.s. looking to ease -- >> venezuela is a very sad, sad place where everybody's trying to get out of. >> i'm not talking about -- what are you, some sort of freedom -- i'm talking about oil. >> i'm just pointing out, you know, it's a lot of people who are -- >> well, they have -- >> -- desperate in venezuela >> they have the largest reservoir of oil in the world, not the west, the east, and if you get venezuela, you get a democratically elected president, which i think would be hard to believe, but anything can happen, then venezuela could begin to pump. >> it would take them a while. their oil industry is in a pretty bad place it's not like you just turn a switch >> are you even going to give me a little bit on this >> i've been out there >> you've been to venezuela? >> where the oil is. guyana and venezuela are right next to each other it's not that easy to just start pumping along the way, when you

have not been spending the capex. >> i defer to rockefeller over here who started standard oil. >> by the way, analysis security council had a statement saying, our sanctions policy is unchanged. >> on venezuela. >> they did push back on this "journal" piece, which they led with on page one today >> a failed dictatorship of a failed state david's right. >> it's a humanitarian crisis there and it has been for some period of time >> but president biden, our president, is talking about making a deal with venezuela, which i find shocking. and demonstrable of what is going on in the world that the u.s. needs to post their strategic when they're finally going to stop, make a deal with a renegade country, which he could make a deal with the permian. those are americans. you may not know that. but you can push those american companies. all they need are pipelines. they just needpipelines out of the permian. but united states policy is against pipelines. >> we're producing more every

year now we make more than the saudis >> if we had more pipelines, we would have anymore if the president were to go to anyone, scott sheffield, david piner, say, you know what? i know you need pipelines. there was a bill by manchin that was killed that was going to provide more pipelines >> he tweeted about it moments after opec manchin, i told you. >> i didn't know how much he tweeted. i'm going to have to start following him. you dressed obviously -- turned the light on >> i'm wearing a suit today, yes. >> looks like a million bucks, which is not that much these days >> we're wearing pink for breast cancer awareness >> i forgot. >> you got the pin >> i got a pin i need a pin >> when we come back this morning, the latest on musk's efforts to buy twitter take a look at the premarket here ton of calls to get to, and we'll wade through, i think, maybe seven fed speakers just today. >> oh, they should just be quiet and do the js. bk aine.irob power e*trade's easy-to-use tools like

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welcome back it's almost two days since we got really the shocking news that elon musk completely reversed course and said he wanted to buy twitter at the agreed-upon price back from april 25th when he first signed the deal to acquire twitter, but it's been almost two days. and still, we have nothing to tell you, specific to that moving forward we're still really waiting, at this point, for, i guess, what

you would call a joint stipulation by the parties to stay the litigation and to then outline all the terms, which aren't really that long, all the terms they need to have agreed to so that musk can buy the company. and as i was stating endlessly on tuesday, then you, you know, potentially close the deal very quickly. there's been some questions, as there have been all along, about morgan stanley, right? leading this $13 billion financing. the bank's face -- depends on your math. all the banks, seven or more banks, could face as much as $850 million loss as a result of where rates are now, and the flex that they have and the financing they offered, and the fact that they obviously will not be able to sell it down at that rate. but nobody i've spoken to at this point indicates in any way that those banks are not ready to step up to their commitment now, you call james gorman and

morgan stanley, and so far, he hasn't called me back. he would say nothing there either he was on with you last week >> yes, and i asked him. he goes, you know, i'm doing my job. >> jim, we're still sitting here waiting for something from the court. the deposition that we've all been led to believe at this point, and obviously, i don't speak directly to elon musk, was frightful for him, because it's the only real thing you can look at and say, what caused this it has been delayed, but it may be as little as a day, so it's possible if things don't get on track, depose him tomorrow listen, those deleted emails, those deleted texts, i should say, that's real potential issue for him and his lawyer we don't know where that would lead everything i hear continues to indicate that this should come to a conclusion very soon, but here we are, two days later, still waiting for what is simple

stuff. simple stuff like, just, get the deal done, agree to stipulations, whatever it is. morgan stanley's going to either be there or not, and most likely, they're going to be there with the financing and then you close so, we'll see. you can monitor today. you can see what the stock's doing. it's quite a ways from $54.20, given that, again, the things that i'm outlining could happen very quickly there was a 15-day marketing period for morgan stanley. there's chancellor mccormick i mean, what, you're going to go back to litigation on the 17th she says, listen, right now, i'm still getting ready for trial, but the fact is, what case do they possibly have now, given he's willing to buy the company at $54.20? this idea that, well, really, i'm not meaning it you just gave up on your entire case >> my understanding is that his lawyers, who i'm sure he has total contempt for, told him it's open and shut that you lose. that in this chance, you either pay now or you pay later, but you're paying.

when i speak to brett taylor, he doesn't want to say anything, but chairman of the board. brett taylor is not a man that i would want on the other side as much as musk is a cowboy, this is a process situation, and brett taylor is a process man. >> and at this point, carl, we're just waiting we're just waiting hopefully we'll have an update for people, who knows, even during the show. at any moment, they could sign up in court, sign a stipulation, and we'll have a much better idea as to exactly when this thing going to close >> what's interesting is, someone asked me, will he accelerate the number -- the amount of hatred toward me given the fact that i have no love for him, and he has no love for me what i want to say is, i love him. because he is going to be the head of twitter. if i could move out of the top five most hated people, it would be good for me by the way, i think putin's number one i'm number five. i think we're close to each other. >> sounds like you could pull some strings >> if putin backs out of the ukraine, what do i, go up to

number one >> that would be a really good day. >> we'll get cramer's mad dash the rangers are here, going to ring the bell. ckff nhl season. more "squawk on the street" when we come back how will your business adapt to change? you could hire an office full of peyton mannings. what's up, peyton? good morning, peyton. hold for peyton. they'd huddle.... welcome to the peytonverse. such a visionary. game plan... you go. no, you go! and call audibles... double our investment in omaha! omaha! omaha! omaha! or you could use workday. omaha. the finance, hr and planning system used by over half of the fortune 500. for a be-agile-like-an-mvp world. workday. for a changing world. lily! welcome to our third bark-ery. oh, i can tell business is going through the “woof”.

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♪♪ ♪♪ be ready for any market with a liquid etf. get in and out with dia. >> announcer: the opening bell is brought to you by nuveen, a leader in income, alternatives, and responsible investing. it's time for cramer's mad dash >> yeah, look, i've been following the transport services industry i know that carnival had a really bad quarter i'm seeing norwegian this week but airline comment here by bank of america, saying, you know,

these earnings about to happen, they like delta. they think delta's going to report a good number, and that's the first one, october 13, but they're taking down price targets for american air 8 goes to 7. southwest, luv, 50 goes to 45. basically, this is a negative note, saying that revenues have plateaued. this is not what we thought, and people always tell me, listen, i was in a completely full flight. well, all i can tell you is that these stocks are not going to go higher if this bank of america note's right and it seems like a very thoughtful note. >> jim, you know, one thing we didn't get to today was you've long said that rich galante at costco holds the strings here and this piece is saying they're not holding, even though their inputs have collapsed. >> they will cut what they need to do, but the numbers were extraordinary. they had really fabulous mid-double-digit food, single-digit -- high

single-digit for pretty much everything else. i think that -- i spent a lot of time at costco, and all they did in that article was repeat what they said on air, which is that, you know, we'll remain competitive. but frankly, the demand is great. demand's extraordinary because prices to begin with are much lower so i mean, remember, they sell for buy and not for margin, and business is very, very good. >> and a lot of those -- >> i'd buy the hell out of it. >> a lot of those supplier deals are fixed, have been signed a long time ago. it takes time to work through. let's go, rangers. >> let's go, rangers >> let's get the opening bell with the new york rangers, celebrating the start of nhl season lundquist, graves, richter, doing the honors that's nice to see, david. >> it is and one of our better teams here

in the new york area they almost made it to the stanley cup last year. >> do you know how many good teams you have right now are you kidding me >> my mets >> are you worried about the mets at all? >> of course i'm worried about them, because we still won 100 games and the yankees, obviously, have had -- well, one of their players has had a season for the ages. >> nonjuiced too but the dodgers aren't so bad. >> no, they're not >> so, we're doing fine here in new york at least right now but let's get back to the market are we doing fine there? well, not really >> i continue to believe, like yesterday's turn, it depends on the bonds, and i don't think anything i heard today is bad for the bond market. by the way, i don't want to -- i really got to talk about diana's reporting today about rents and how rents raren't going up. rents have been intractable, and if rents would go down, then that would really help the fed's

case i've not seen it, personally i've seen apartments go down in price, though. you're not getting -- in a lot of the country, there's no more of this best and final, six bids, and that's significant, but mortgage rates are incredibly high. i mean, they're really high, versus where they were a year ago. they're double and there's no break but right now, the interest rates are not going the right way. so, let's see what happens >> so, these reports about compass, is that market turn here >> yes >> yeah? >> yes in the same way that some degree poshmark, basically people said was overdone -- i mean, if we start seeing buyouts of companies, not twitter, but buyouts of companies, because they've actually come down enough, and obviously, it's not -- >> listen, i mean, i've said previously, you know, vista has typically focused on the private markets, given, obviously, their focus on enterprise software 97% of the companies are private there. but we've noted, of late, their

focus on the public markets at vista, one of the larger private equity firms that is technology focused because that may be where the value is and then john gray at delivering alpha, when i did the panel with him and whitney wolf herd, he chec also indicated that from blackstone's perspective, there may be value in the public markets. that's a positive. no doubt, when private equity is looking out years ahead and seeing potential opportunities now in terms of future cash flows they can buy at what they believe are a discount, that's a good thing doesn't mean every company shares that characteristic but we're seeing it. >> i heard people talk about that interview, and thought it was kind of a watershed. and i have heard even people at the company. that's a watershed because the public market's supposed to be much more expensive than the private market and that was, you know, by the way, can we just say that he is one of the best there is it's not like he's a yahoo >> no. >> and when he said it at your

delivering alpha, whatever -- >> that was right. yeah, it was delivering alpha. >> i was with someone from that firm the other day and they said, look -- i said, i've heard this thing at delivering alpha he said, no, no, we're looking -- we're kicking the tires. >> that was -- it doesn't mean you're going to necessarily move forward. the leveraged finance market, as we know, is not great right now, certainly not for a noninvestment grade credit, which is typical of that market. so, you know, it's difficult to fund a particular buyout >> did you see the credit suisse upgrade? they had some things to sell off. >> i saw the credit suisse upgrade today. there's also a report from bloomberg about potentially spin of parts of the old investment bank, the advisory business and maybe they raise capital desperately. we'll see. we're still waiting on cs, but it's sort of stabilized, at least, has the stock, since monday's lows. >> but i thought that the overall thought of your delivering alpha was incredibly significant, which is that even

with rates where they are, the best opportunity is in the -- >> it may be right even though your cost of capital has gone up, numbers have come down so much that you can still generate a return. by the way, you've got to remember, many of these private companies have -- are desperate not to do a down round they haven't been marked down to a certain extent by their holders in the way that, perhaps, they need to be >> but this is what i'm saying >> but those marks vary. it really does >> right, but kevin leary's got his book if you want to know where the layoffs are, it's in silicon valley among very highly-paid people, and we see california real estate go down. carl, that would be the sign that the fed is really on a skate. >> yeah, i mean, some of the jolts numbers in financial services, jim, were not good and today we have peloton, another 500 jobs that's going to be another 12% >> if they fire everyone, this thing's going to soar. >> barry mccarthy saying, give us six months to prove whether

this business should exist >> i want to tell barry, speak not at all why does barry do that, david? what is the incentive to say that because he's just an honest hardass? >> i guess so. that's as good an answer as any. >> thank you how about con agra did you see that >> yeah, affirms the guide five-cent beat >> they got some very good revenue growth, and i'm surprised. the stock's only up 53 cents general mills, on the same numbers, went nuts but again, i come back to the reversal in the market yesterday. the reversal today it's very significant. when a deal says, look, i missed monday and tuesday, but i'm getting a little shot here, and they're taking it. >> there was a pretty good note out of wells about some of these calls on the s&p october calls, 4,500 strike, march calls. >> didn't you see that entry >> these are 20,000 contracts. >> i thought that they are actually what's moving the market but again, the market is thin.

david, i'm seeing tech always go before -- no, to 4:00 today, tech looked like it was going to be down 2%, not unlike the first hour of trading yesterday, and then here they go again. sneaking up on us. >> look at that. >> smh >> nasdaq's positive guys, i haven't had a lot of good things to say about verizon for quite a long period of time. >> you've been so negative -- you've been hands-down the most negative >> am i wrong? >> it's a joke hands down >> i haven't been negative or positive but this morning, verizon does get an upgrade from oppenheimer. and i mention it because they actually downgraded the stock back in february, which wasn't a bad move >> good call >> saying at the time they overpaid for spectrum, they were late to mid band 5g bills but now they think they're gradually catching up to t-mobile in terms

of 5g network performance and capabilities and they're getting to 100 mega hertz and looking to resume positive subscriber growth using a more segmented approach i'll leave it at that, but it is having an impact on the stock price. $50 is now their price target at oppenheimer as they upgraded to outperform >> i thought it was significant. >> would be. >> because they were right about -- when they downgraded it >> exactly >> constellation brands, you have them on tonight and they have what's called depletion. they had amazing numbers some people thought they were light. they solved their water problems they're selling their low-end wine, and people have decided, it really doesn't matter it's going to -- because they have the cannabis, maybe, it's going to loss but i know this business pretty well and all the growth in beer is coming from them, and the stock, h historically, on the day it reports, trades down, but the numbers were extraordinary, and if you're in that business, you are so jealous of them they're getting rid of the -- to the wine group, i don't know if

you know them, cookerper and th, dreaming tree, monkey bay, seven moons, but what matters here is that the stock is chronically acted incorrectly on the day it reports, and then people realize, well, there's so much faster growing than everybody else, so we'll listen to bill newlands, but i want you to be aware, if you were in the beer business, as i have been, you're so jealous of them but if you're just a trader, you're an idiot. >> there's a lot of beverage news today diagio reiterates its medium term guide this partnership between keurig, dr pepper and red bull made a few headlines. >> i'm worried about keurig itself i'm thinking about writing about that tonight the ali's army has a lot of keurig products for sale that means they're in the channel. but people have to understand, when somebody's in the channel, that means the price is being footballed, so if you were to go even to bed bath & beyond, which is way long keurig, you would see that the prices are

dramatically lower on ollie's. that means somebody sold them because they didn't want the inventory. significant. >> i want to talk about a name you talked about a lot i didn't respond >> that was pretty good read i thought that was interesting research ollie's. what is that ollie's and then moved on. >> ollie's >> thank you >> you're welcome. eli lilly, it's a little bit bigger than ollie's. in fact, i hadn't realized that lilly's market cap is now $ $315 billion it's line a hundred billion dollars bigger than merck. i don't know how i missed that >> perhaps because you're not trying to take -- >> only trails j&j eli lilly did announce the u.s. food and drug administration's granted fast-track approval for the treatment of adults with obesity or overweight with weight-related comorbidities jim has been talking about this a lot, of course there's this surmount one, two

trials, 2,539 participants across the world in many ways. which obviously showed some very positive results they are going to be using for this fast track, the results from two phase 3 clinical trials, as i just said, these that i just referenced jim, you think there's a big market for this drug >> actually, it's interesting how much people want this because this is a delay of one year to get a prescription, so you may have to use it off-label, which means the prescription will not -- the insurance companies will not pay for it but this is the first noninvasive, so to speak, you take it, there's no side effects, those of us who have gone to our doctors and said, can we have it a legitimate doctor will say, not yet. you can only have it an indication for diabetes. but david, the stars are out all the stars that are worried about their weight are getting this thing this thing, carl, this is an obesity drug where, i mean, i

know that it sounds strange that there are no side effects, but you take one, and you lose weight, and that is kind of the holy grail of what people really want >> the baseline was greater than 5% body weight loss in 72 weeks versus placebo, so -- >> that's pretty good. you don't want to lose it overnight. you're going to put it back on >> it may be more significant than that, but that's important. >> i take a drug called lyrica, and it's shown to put on the exact amount of weight that this thing takes off, so the case i'm going to make to my doctor is, you've asked me to take weight off, but you put me on lyrica. i'm willing to pay for it out of pocket i hope i get it. this is a revolutionary drug there's never been a drug on the market that does this. and david ricks has not been talking about it, because it's not approved for this. but wow. david, if i were in hollywood, let's say i was running

"jeopardy!". >> yeah. >> that's all. >> just seeing if i'm paying attention? >> seeing if you're paying attention. sometimes you have to do that, carl >> i always pay attention. one ear. >> i talk about his dog. these are things his ears pick up >> jim, really quick, we didn't get to talk about morgan stanley cutting gm from 42 to 30 today, jpmorgan on auto nation, worst set-up for franchise dealers that we've encountered since the pandemic tesla is 16% lower in five days. >> how about the fact that he upgraded ford motor? i think ford has still a problem getting parts. i think that ford cannot deliver what it's promised because of others, not ford i thought it was an odd upgrade. my travel trust owns ford, but i'm surprised he jumped now. i would have waited for the quarter, i think, to see how they're doing. but jonas had been very anti-ford, and he goes pro-ford.

pro-ford pro-ford >> pro-ford. yes. sometimes i have a -- my hearing is going >> and we haven't mentioned ford upping the f-150 lightning price for the second time now. >> the demand is incredible. they're sticking by their projs the projection you can't get one of the electrics. they're sold out of everything, so don't feel like, well, i'll put in an order, because you're nobody you can't get broncos either because of the name plate problem. i think there's certain companies that are really holding up ford as a stock, but there's no doubt that at certain point, the fact that they have what you want is going to change the equation now, when i speak on the back channel with ford, what i say is, stop your ads. what are you doing you're full up but you know -- >> got to keep building the brand. >> yeah, i guess so. >> mind share, jim it's about mind share. >> it's just that i think that

it's going to be number one is tesla, number two is ford, and ford is not going to be an asterisk >> by the way, always important to point out tesla's never done an advertisement >> well, that's why -- see, he listens closely to me because i was saying ford doesn't do advertising, that could be like tesla. that was my idea >> i was making it clearer for people it's unbelievable, though, that tesla's never spent any money on marketing. >> before you get to tweet about ukraine and get -- >> and he gets to own the darn th thing, gets rid of putin >> maybe there will be a lot of ads on twitter for tesla >> maybe they'll make money with twitter, which would be -- i'd like to advise them, i've got some ways to do it if elon wants to talk to me, little back channel, i've got ways >> you want him to open a theme park in new mexico no, that was another company sorry. >> we're still working on that >> it's going to happen. >> when it happens, he's going to be so embarrassed >> i said they're going to go into gambling very fast, have partners in gambling and do on fantasy. let's see. >> guys, we're knocking on the

door of 3,800 again. 3,806 was yesterday's high let's get tobob pisani >> 3,791 right now that would be interesting to get back over that, and what you want to look at now is what's the market's appetite for risk and every day, i put up when i consider to be the most important risk indicators that are out there. what are those well, metals and mining stocks, they're up today transportation stocks, they're up today semiconductor stocks, they're up today, and cathie wood's ark innovation when these are up leading the market, you know there's an appetite for risk, and i would say, yes, the answer is yes today. look at the s&p movers same thing little bit of semiconductors helping things out, advanced micro, nvidia, we're at 88 on oil, folks, and material names like cf industries modestly to the upside that's a good start to the day here everybody he's talking about bostic he's not a voting member but he's one of the first people to mention this pause idea here here's what he said.

i'd like to reach a point where policy is moderately restrictive between 4 and 4 mid.5, then holt that level hold at that level and see the economy of prices react. that's the pause and then he went on to talk about how the impact is affecting things the fomc's tightening may have already sapped the housing -- moves in the housing market. so, there's a pause. now, again, he's not a voting member let's see if he can get people to move along to his point of view earnings season is starting, and it's a rather cautious start, but i'm encouraged by the fact that the three big reporters affirmed their guidance. remember, guys, everyone was expecting, oh my god, they're going to start cutting, cutting, cutting. well, look at the big three. these are all big consumer names that are out there conagra beat the estimates they had big price hikes that helped the margins they reaffirmed their guidance jim was talking about constellation. the beer sales were astonishing for them, and they had price

hikes. why is it down here? i think the guidance was only fair here. they were at -- their guidance is $11.20 to $11.60. they had $11.20. these numbers are great. why didn't they push the numbers up more? i think that's the reason it's trading down a little bit. but jim's right. the numbers were mccormick's nus out. they're getting a lot of price hikes through, and they also affirmed their full-year guidance, okay so, just remember, everyone's expecting this apocalyptic fourth quarter where everyone's going to be cutting their numbers and saying, business is term, and carl, i think this is a fairly good, considering how mediocre and actually disappointing the early reporters have been. getting three big companies, consumer companies, just affirming the guidance for the year, well, it's a bit of a win for the bulls. carl, back to you. >> all right, bob, thank you for that bob pisani as we go to break, let's check bonds this morning, we've

mentioned how many fed speakers we're going to get mester, two times today. the yield complex is higher. ten-year, almost a 3.79% and that two-year near 4.18% back in a minute this thing, it's making me get an ice bath again. what do you mean? these straps are mind-blowing! they collect hundreds of data points like hrv and rem sleep, so you know all you need for recovery. and you are? i'm an investor...in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to... nasdaq 100 innovations like... wearable training optimization tech. uh, how long are you... i'm done. i'm okay.

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got a few sectors in the red this morning banks among them not the worst, for example, utilities are down more. you have the major ones. jpm, goldman, morgan stanley, all in the red watching the dollar index as well had been 114, the recent highs close to 112 this moinrng. we'll get stock trading with jim in a minute.

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let's get to jim and stop trading. >> one of the worst-acting groups, the game, game companies. it's been relentless and apropos identify decided, people decided they were the pelotons to morning goldman comes up with a very big piece about recommending take2, saying upside like the zynga deal nvidia is designing new chips that will make it so everything

looks different next year. they're very excited about the gaming cycle if you wanted to get in the gaming cycle, i think take2 is the best i think they're very well run. and i agree with the call. >> we're going to talk to eric s sheridan this morning. >> you can ask him about grant theft auto and the stealing, which doesn't matter to the plants, but you have to ask him about the -- it's so life-like and i've seen it, by nvidia, that i think is going to be the game-changer for gamers this year i've seen it. >> very cool >> you can't tell the difference between real life and -- there isn't. i thought it was me, talking to me yeah, i'm cramer even had the philadelphia accident extraordinary. >> hans down jim, what's tonight? >> norwegian cruise lines, which we'll see how much different they are from carnival obviously in great shape

mercedes, we did a piece already from esg fantastic. and frank del rio and bill newlands the constellation call hasn't started. i'm in the beer business there's nothing growth to anything beer except for them. the fact they didn't raise their guidance and because they don't. so, sell it all you want my trust is going to buy it. >> there you go. there you go again >> thank you for listening, david. always appreciate it. >> i'm here for you. you have at least one ear. >> we always have to go. no one is saying it this time. they want me to go long with this. >> no, they don't. >> we have the imf director -- >> they don't want you to go long they want you to stop. >> jim's right, the imf directing manager on this downgrade. pretty gloomy picture about global recession we'll talk about the economy at central banks when we come back.

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welcome to another hour of "squawk on the street" live at post 9 of the new york stock exchange a little chop at the open. mixed open almost got to 3800 again, but we settled back a bit as we got oil above 88 and the dollar index close to 112. >> we're 30 minutes into the trading session. here are three big movers. starting with mccormick, reporting adjusted quarterly earnings below estimate. the company saying it is now recovering costs through pricing action after a period in which it saw expenses continue to outpace product price increases. you can see those shares up 1% plus, compsa shares surging after a deal to take the company private. denying they are in private takeover talks according to another report nonetheless, those shares are up 13%. pinterest shares rallying getting an upgrade from neutral

to buy in the meantime, you can see all the major averages are slightly lower. atlanta fed president rap raphael bostic is saying they are in waning days steve liesman has more for us. >> good morning. neel kashkari just saying in the past hour that he's want comfortable pausing rates unless there's evidence inflation is cooling but there's no evidence inflation has peaked he says there's quite a bit to do atlanta fed president is signaling along with kashkari the fed has work to do and will hike in the months ahead bostic said they should not be deterred. >> for example, if unemployment rises uncomfortably, it will be

important to resist the temptation to react by reversing our policy course prematurely. >> tough words from bostic he was a bit dovish saying the fed should raise rates to 4% to 4.5% by year end and stop to see the impact on the economy. ideally, he said he would like to see a policy moderately restrictive by 4% to 4.5% and hold at that level and see how the economy and prices react now, what bostic is saying is in line with how the futures market is priced. the market has discounted a 4.27% rate by year-end, a ways to go, and going up to 4.5% by spring 2023. the key is whether inflation data does show that evidence of easing giving the fed the ability to stop right there. meanwhile, there's a lot of other fed speak today, with chicago's evans and the new fed governor lisa cook, both at 1:00 followed by governor waller and

master at 6:00 p.m a lot of that commentary could fade tomorrow because you've got the jobs report. a weaker gain in payroll will give -- raise market hopes of growing slack in the labor market and that the fed, perhaps, could stop sooner rather than later. david? guys >> steve, i'm actually going to dig into that a little more since you are a resident data wonk in terms of the labor data we've gotten leading up to this report tomorrow morning, whether it's the challenger data, the jolts data, some other indicators, claims this morning, i realize still strong labor market, but we are starting to see those signs of easing, right i mean, how quickly could something like the fed's tightening actually take hold and turn that data >> you know, it's one of those things where you could turn around and it's having a profound impact. we got sort of mixed results this week in the leadup. first of all, you had claims today were elevated but i'm waiting to see if they're going to hang there because, remember,

we had that spike up to 250 and then came back down. my guess, morgan, is that the transition you have people leaving industries that had too much labor but were scooped up pretty quickly in this tight labor market you did have the 1.1 million decline in job openings. that was yesterday on this show at 10:00 the ism -- boy, it all happened on this show, come to think of it ism services at 10:00 showed a pop up in hiring and then manufacturing, like i said, monday, showed a decline that's kind of what you sort of expect, which is some of these manufacturing businesses shedding some workers but picked up in the service industry where some of those industries, morgan, are still below where they were before the pandemic hit. >> steve, it's david an entirely different direction here, but i want to get your take on something because it's not often i have so many conversations where people want to talk about the lack of liquidity in the treasury market and i'm sure you're having more of those conversations is there something to be made of this, something to be concerned

about? >> we have to watch it, david. there are some indicators that suggest there is some liquidity issues i want to say so far so good look, david, i would be talking to your buddies that are trying to refinance commercial mortgages right now. cnbs i would be talking to friends in the corporate bond market. those are the places where i would look first for a kind of liquidity that could be issues coming up, especially as we head towards year end i'm not hearing the sort of alarm bells right now as much as i have people saying, i'm listening for those alarm bells right now. i'm watching for any liquidity issues i'm not seeing it right now. tha liquidity problem. there's all kinds of stuff right now that is available for people to do that kind of financing, but we definitely have to be on alert for it i think it has to be the elon musk comments on ukraine, which i'm happy not to talk about. >> yes, i think we'll stay away from that for this morning, steve. >> yeah.

>> steve, thanks >> steve liesman yields and stocks are swinging around to start the session. the dow now close to 200 points. let's bring in wilmington trust megan chu and steve soznic megan, you thought the time to reduce had probably passed since we had a couple of 90% up days do you still feel good about that position? >> yeah, carl, thanks for having me i think that this market is one where you have to stay invested. there's a number of headwinds on the horizon but there's also some potential for rally into the end of the year. if you think about seasonality, if you think about midterm elections as possible catalysts, from an economic standpoint, there are also signs that the inflation data is improving. you were talking about the ism services i think the ism services pay is probably the most important part of that survey to be paying attention to because if you look at it, it overlays very nicely

with headline cpi and suggests we could have potentially a five handle on cpi by the end of the year we think it's more likely to be slightly higher but i think that deceleration is in place that does set up for the fed to get to a certain point, and then pause and possibly be able to coast this economy to that soft landing. >> right you're right about some of those fast-moving metrics, steve, that's why it's curious, this headline from kashkari, we see almost no indication that inflation is peaking where do you think he gets that? >> carl, i think he partially gets it from the anecdotally stuff the fed collects, partially as the fed tends to be late on this stuff i think the markets often get ahead of the fed, which is a blessing and a risk from time to time i think if we get ahead of them thinking they're going to change prematurely, that's not necessarily a good thing in terms of discounting events,

it is a fine thing so, where he gets it from is a little tricky to say, but sometimes i think it's more about messaging as anything else >> meghan, ifyou're betting there's going to be some sort of recession, and i realize there's a lot of details about when or what that could look like, how would you recession-proof your portfolio given the conversations on what we do know >> morgan, we've already had a drawdown in line with historically mild recessions and it's always hard to know, but by all accounts we do think if we have a recession, it's going to be on the milder side again, to the intro carl set up, i think the time to reduce risk has passed you would be wanting to look at positioning for the bounce and maybe getting into some of those more beaten down parts of the market we still like growth over value, parts of technology have really been beaten down and they would tend to lead out of this drawdown as well but i don't think it's the time to be taking huge bets

actually, we just increased our exposure to fixed income to neutral because of the appeal from rates and what that does in terms of providing optionality from a total return perspective from historically defensive assets i know bonds have not defended so far this year, but we think the next year looks a lot better for investment grade fixed income than the last nine months. >> okay. steve, i mean, just to go back to david's question to the other steve earlier about liquidity in the treasury market and liquidity in fixed income in general, one of the conversations we're having on this show yesterday was the difference between market volatility and market instability. break that down for me what would you be watching, fixed income, equities, other areas of financial markets as the fed does continue to tighten here >> that to me is a very crucial distinction, morgan. i think what we're seeing now, i've termed this as socially acceptable volatility. it's not normal to go up 5 --

5%, 6% in two days, but we like that now, what -- what it means doesn't mean that the market is getting illiquid basically, if you see excessive volatility it's one sign the market is getting illiquid when you see greater volatility, those who provide liquidity demand sort of either greater spreads or commit less or commit less money on each side. when i was an option market maker, when things would get tough, we would widen spreads and shrink our posted sizes. that's normal behavior that doesn't mean the market is getting iliquid but getting less liquid at a given price. so, to a certain extent, volatility has a feedback effect when it's volatile, it tends to reduce liquidity in the short term that doesn't mean liquidity is truly gone i think you can still get things done but it's not necessarily as easy for large institutions to

get big trades moved without impacting the market the same way as we might have seen when the fed was highly active in putting money into the system, when the tide's flowing out on a monetary basis, volatility rises that's pretty normal >> yeah. certainly the m2 action and the dollar action ratifies that view meghan, finally, we haven't touched on opec but the white house this morning arguing -- trying to argue that the decision is not creating the spike in oil prices that some expected we had morgan stanley, their view on brent for the coming quarters goldman, too are you worried energy is going to be -- is going to work against what the fed is trying to accomplish in the next couple of quarters? >> we have definitely pointed out oil as a potential risk for headline inflation it came down quite markedly over the process of this year that was due to a number of forces and the recession dynamics, i think, are going to weigh on the price. i don't see us going back to

where we were at $120 wti. but i do think that opec has a line in the sand that they're looking to defend from a price perspective. it's going to be somewhat hard to battle that, particularly if we do look at china as being the huge swing factor here with their zero covid policy. there's quite a divided camp in terms of what they do, but at some point, up, if they do relax in the next six months, that could lead to significant upward pressure on oil prices in an already tight market it's certainly a risk. >> yeah. and that's not even considering what happens if russia pulls off some production as well. meghan, steve, good chat good to see you. as we go to break, our road map for the rest of the hour, including the white house, criticizing opec plus, calling those shortsighted we'll speak with the imf managing director, first on cnbc, we'll get her outlook on the global environment.

elon musk making news with his current company. spacex, another big launch we'll break it down when "squawk on the street" returns

welcome back to "squawk on the street." it's now time for our etf spotlight. today we're watching the moves in energy. the xle up double digits so far this week, on pace with wti crude, which is on pace for its

best week since march. three big energy stories and headlines happening right now, including, of course, the big opec oil cut and also some news about the unlikely source for the u.s. may be able to get more oil. brian sullivan is live in vienna to wrap all of this up for us. hi, brian. >> reporter: hey, morgan we got three stories let's blast through them and go because there's a lot happening in the world of energy the opec news happened late yesterday, the implications, the reverberations opec cut 900,000 barrel because a lot of countries weren't making their quota 900,000-barrel cut is what we've been selling from the strategic petroleum reserve in america, about 900,000 barrels a day. is that an accident? i don't know you have to ask opec we tried they would not answer that direct question. the white house is not happy with this, which leads us to story number two which is an exclusive story from "the wall street journal," which

i can semi-confirm for cnbc, which is that the u.s., the white house is looking to ease sanctions on venezuela, so maybe they can produce more oil. chevron has a big operation there. as "the wall street journal" exclusive, i reached out to chevron late last night. got the implications it was directly correct they did not want to get in front of the white house, is my guess. they did not say the story is incorrect. chevron, a big player in venezuela. would like to produce more oil maybe lose saudi oil, go to venezuela oil, it's less quality but closer and not opec. story three, not related to oil, it's natural gas it's related to where we are, which is europe, morgan. the uk today, national grid, one of the big power companies, warning they may not have enough gas for the winter for heat, power and light. germany coming out with kind of the same i know we talked a lot about their storage levels everyone is like, they're fine no, they're not. because they never operated on just storage alone

it's been storage plus the pipeline flow. so, the winter of their discontent not out of the woods. real concern in the uk and other parts of europe. maybe no heat, power or light in parts of the winter. venezuela could become maybe our new partner if the white house eases sanctions, although on "squawk box," the envoy saying the story left a lot to be desired. i think there's a lot left to be desired with how people are talking about opec not happy in washington, d.c., with what happened in the building behind us in vienna, austria. >> it's eye-popping. i feel like we're living in the upside down with energy reserves the other piece of the puzzle is we got the weekly eia data, and crude, including releases, gasoline and distillates, we saw a 16 million barrel drawdown,

week on week gas at the lowest level in 16 weeks. the it's not like our numbers here are so strong either. i got to think that's only going to continue to add to the upward pressure on oil prices >> reporter: you had morgan stanley and reistadt energy talking about $100 billion they say 100 brent by christmas. wtr crude output, 94, 95 bucks morgan stanley was talking about $100 oil we have to refill the spr. the white house may not leave off the table there could be additional spr releases. even though we're at a 40-year low, we're not empty i know hurricane ian was absolutely devastating for the folks of florida, and our thoughts and prayers are with them, but we've been very lucky as far as atlantic hurricanes otherwise, as far as the gulf of mexico i'm only referring to the energy complex. i want to make that very clear there was no named storms in the gulf of mexico i think from a storm perspective, for refining and

producing, whatever, morgan, maybe that a little bit was on certainly our side you're right, a lot of levels are low. they'll have to be refilled. we're getting into winter. and we could see oil prices certainly pop a lot higher hey, it's the oil market you'll have smart guests on that can probably know a lot more than i can >> yeah. and one very smart reporter and anchor on the ground in vienna, brian sullivan, great to get your take. >> reporter: thank you thanks >> as we go to break, take a look at the biggest gainers on the s&p this week. a lot of oils on there as we were talking about marathon, halliburton, devo n. dow's down 240 ♪ ♪ wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here! what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq,

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this is an exclusive tv offer that includes sun joe's 30 day money back guarantee. ♪ jpmorgan upgrading group one automotive, one of the newest used car dealerships to overweight new car prices are starting to decline but the interest rates are at the highest level in 15 years. could the red hot new and used car market hit a consumer

slowdown earl hesterberg joins us great to have you on the show. in light of the carmax comment tear last week about macro factors, vehicle affordable, rising interest rates, low consumer confidence. are these issues you're starting to see manifest within your business >> well, we're seeing more headwinds in the used car business, but what's been driving our record profits the last year or two has been new vehicle margins and double digit service growth so, we're still pretty much intact on the way we've been traveling. but it is a fact that the used car segment is more impacted by high interest rates, consumer confidence and things like that. so, we have to make some adjustments in our used car business to take into account these factors. >> new cars seem to be holding up those prices, is what you're

telling me is there a point at which higher interest rates would begin to dent that demand or the math a little different than, say, used cars >> well, the big issue now is the order bank we have so, i'm sitting in the uk today where we announced at the end of the second quarter we have a new vehicle order bank of 17,000 units. we sell about 7,000 units a quarter. you can get a feel for that. same in the u.s. we have a pretty large new vehicle order bank sure,extended periods of high interest rates are not good for the automotive business. that's a fact. >> are you seeing more $1,000 a month car payments is that becoming more common >> yeah, sure. now, bear in mind that what the manufacturers are making and what our order bank consist of, particularly in the u.s., are big trucks, suvs, luxury brand vehicles

these are very expensive vehicles and, yes, these car payments are higher than they've ever been, but we're into our third year now of recession level new vehicle supply so, there's still a pretty big cushion between the level of demand and order bank and the level of supply. >> you have a pretty sizeable business in the uk we've seen the pound moves and rate markets as well how are you navigating those financial conditions is it affecting business on the ground there >> s well, not yet, but i would say we have the same used car challenges in the uk as the u.s. market because that's the price sensitive part of our business but the vast majority of our uk business is luxury brands like bmw, where i'm sitting today those order banks remain strong. now, when we translate our uk

profits into dollars, the weakening of the pound is not helpful, clearly >> as we see this move towards electric vehicles and taking root in a more meaningful way in the marketplace, what does it mean looking out -- i realize this might be a years' long story, what does that mean looking out to the future pipeline of used vehicles? these batteries have a finite life and you get to a point sometimes where maybe the battery needs to rereplaced and that could cost more than the actual price -- resale price of the car. >> well, we need to get a lot of experience with that and i think the fact that you just mentioned may end up in a situation where a lot more battery/electric vehicles are leased than traditional vehicles and therefore, the owner doesn't take that risk of owning it after four or five years so that could be a factor. i have to admit, in these hybrid

vehicles, like toyota prius we we've been selling for 10 or 15 years, we thought we would see a lot more battery replacements as the cars age, and we haven't i think the whole industry is going to gain experience as they go with that >> interesting earl hesterberg, thank you for joining us and giving us your take today. >> my pleasure after this quick break, we'll be joined by the imf's managing director. many questions for her back after this. - yieldstreet presents: alternative investing with kal penn and older kal penn. - oh, the stock market is doing that fun thing again. - hey news from the future, you're going to live through that about 10 more times. (laughs) - oh, it's no stress. i just discovered yieldstreet. they vet investments that don't ride the stock market rollercoaster. - ooh. i think some of my gray hairs just reversed. - yeah. you're welcome. - [narrator] become an investor today.

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hello. i'm contessa brewer. at least 38 people, including 24 children and a pregnant teacher, were killed in northeastern thailand after a former police officer attacked a day care center the suspect then drove home where he killed his wife and their child. the ex-officer, police say, had

recently been dismissed from the force after being caught with methamphetamines. for the second time this week, a bus from texas dropped off about 50 migrants near vice president kamala harris's residence in washington. d.c.'s mayor has declared a public emergency because of the influx of migrants and created a new office to provide resources to the new arrivals. french author annie enaraux, the 82-year-old writer was first published in 1974. her more than 20 books chronicle events in her life and the lives of those around her. the swedish academy says it awarded her the prize for, and i quote here, uncovering the roots estrangements and collective restraints of personal memory. i'm contessa brewer with this edition of deep thoughts >> that was great. we'll get a check of the markets. dow is down 240. a rally that started the week

has stalled a bit. today's session reracing the premarket losses and we failed to take out yesterday's intraday high mike santoli on set to talk about whether this air pocket was more fed tough talk or whispers about tomorrow? >> general anticipation about tomorrow because it will be the most important number we get yesterday's low in the s&p might be worth keeping an eye on, too. it's 3720, 3722, something like that, which would mean we're waffling around in yesterday's range. i'm on board with people who say that, you know, yesterday's bid that came in that took the market off the lows is certainly modestly encouraging i don't think it's decisive. we're still in the zone of, of this trip down to the previous lows or a little bit through the previous lows better in any respect than the first one in june you can make the case, credit is in better shape. a little less momentum in the recession. story in terms of the data and the narrative. and maybe just because time has

passed and three months later. and you're that much closer to wherever you think the destination is for the fed and seasonals are better i don't know how far that gets you because i think both bulls and bears agree, this market should trade up a little higher before you have that moment of truth. >> as for tomorrow, people are trying to game out, okay, what would make the market comfortable with a number above 200, let's say they're pointing to maybe participation rate gets -- continues to improve or wages just don't show you the oomph? >> i think participation rate has to improve, which is a way of saying the employment rate would have to soften up or not go down. we are in that odd mode of kind of rooting for the most painless path possible to a higher unemployment rate. the fed dot plot, their projections said, we'll probably get up to 4.4. even if we do, that's not going to likely come along with a lot of policy easing along the way into later next year

so, if you believe that, first of all, it means like they're not that far away from the target rate level, but it will probably stay there for a while, as raphael bostick said yesterday. >> the russell 2000 and transports, smaller companies here, biggest outperformers, also the hardest hit year-to-date anything to make of that or more technical? >> that is kind of the rule when you get these sharp reversals. i do think small caps are interesting, even if it's not the russell 2000, look at the 6000, a group of smaller cap companies, they seem really cheap. it seems like they took a lot of their pain people will tell you that earnings forecast is unreasonably high for those companies but the market has priced a little more of that in. it's an interesting thing to watch. the riskier parts of the market that peaked a full nine months, let's say, before the nasdaq peaked in november of 2021 are

areas where, you know, you probably cleansed a little more of the risk out of them. >> finally, were you impressed by some of these reports of call buying yesterday, looking at strike prices of 4500 in october or march >> i mean, not so much that it means you should pin a lot of hopes or expectations that were certainly going to get there look, a weighted play cheap upside is to buy far out of the money calls. if you think the market has kind of -- is near a low or is just going to have a snap back, that's a way to express it pretty well. now, in terms of whether that was decisive in pulling the market higher or anything like that, i don't know that you can say that for sure because, yes, there's a lot of mechanical stuff that goes on around these round number strike prices in the s&p. all else being equal, it does have a lot of influence in the day-to-day, but i could eisley see a scenario where that's just sort of more logs on the fire for the bears to keep warm, you know so, you just never know if that's the thing that mattered

>> speaking of round numbers, back to 30k. mike, thanks mike santoli. still to come, the latest on elon musk's other venture, spacex and the big launch this weekend. we have the details. throughout hispanic heritage month we are celebrating our cnbc teammates and contributors. here is kraft heinz north america carlos abrams rivera ♪ >> we are very much a passionate people who care deeply and celebrate loudly so, i think when you're with us, you get to see the world with a new tapestry of colors that you have never seen before the reality is that we are entrenched in the fabric of america. you may know the sounds of, you know, black bunny and j.lo and know the feed of mexico, puerto rico and brazil. we're all that but we're also in congress and the supreme court, and we are nobel laureates and

scientists when you talk about the story of america, many of those voices are going to have a spanish cent

we take you to the president commenting on that opec plus move >> no, it was not essential to oil. it was about the middle east and israel and realization of position it is a disappointment and says they are a problem. >> all right that is the president there. a few comments about the trip.

the line he was referring to was about his trip to saudi, arguing it was not about oil disappointed in the opec moves looking at alternatives. asked whether or not he would meet with putin at g20, he said that remains to be seen. kayla has some color around that appe appearance. >> the president just reiterating his disappointment and trying to justify his trip to the kingdom of saudi arabia this summer which is increasingly in question after the saudis sided with russia essentially the west versus everybody else in deciding to cut production, which is exactly what the u.s. had been working the phones to try to get them not to do. also notably, carl, we didn't hear in that piece of tape, but according to the press pool, the president was also asked about venezuela and reports that sanctions on venezuela will be lifted allowing chevron to drill for oil there. those discussions have begun several months ago, but the president there said, according to the pool, that all options are on the table the white house for its part

says there will be no lifting of sanctions without constructive steps from the medora regime i talked to senior officials who said even if sanctions were lifted today, the infrastructure was very old it would be several years before chevron is actually able to take anything out of the ground and put it onto the market certainly the president wants to show that heis being proactive he's considering a whole host of different policies in the wake of that production cut we'll see which one they move forward with guys, back to you. >> kayla, ro kanna was on "squawk" this morning saying the president should call the king himself, say, you have five days to reverse your decision otherwise i'm going to start working with congress to pass a ban on supplying air parts to your air force is that being taken seriously in the beltway at all >> i think there is an understanding that leader-to-leader level conversations are much more productive than having the t

te technocrats work this out. they rely heavily on weaponry and they do want to keep those pipelines flowing. whether or not the white house would actually go through with something like that remains to be seen. the politics ahead of the midterms are very delicate if the president were to make that call and actually not have anything come out of it, have no deliverables, that might put the white house in a more precarious situation. and legislation from congress, it's unclear where support would lie, if there would be enough support to pass that, you know, without just support from democrats. we'll see which way they go. i think it's pretty delicate political situation for the next five weeks, guys >> kayla, thank you. the imf's managing director just wrapping up a speech on the challenges facing the global economy, saying the risk of recessions around the world are rising and policymakers must stay the course to bring down inflation. she joins us live now in washington as well it's her first cnbc interview and there is our sara eisen.

sara had. >> hi, david, good morning i'm at the riggs library where imf director kristalina georgieva just wrapped up her speech, talking to students. thank you for taking some questions. >> very happy to do that good to see. >> you there are a lot of problems in the world, unfortunately, to talk about you just hinted at the fact you're likely to downgrade your assessment of the global economy again. how point are we to a global recession? >> what we are seeing is slowing down in all large economies. eurozone because of russia cutting gas supplies china because of covid restrictions and the property sector u.s. still holding better but momentum is slowing down why? because interest rates are starting to compress the -- and weigh on investments in this environment, inevitably the world economy is also slowing down we are calculating that for

one-third of the world economy, this year and next year, there would be two consecutive quarters of negative growth. and that the risks of recession have gone. would it be possible to avoid it of course if monetary and fiscal policy act appropriately, we might not see a global recession. sara, even if there is no recession in some countries, for hundreds of millions of people, too feel like that. >> absolutely. you mentioned the u.s., if you're going to define recession by two negative quarters of gdp, then the u.s. is in one, isn't it >> the question is what are we looking at a global recession. and for that, we want to see growth on the -- we do not want to see, bit may see growth going down to 1 %. then we are in a situation where the world is in deeper trouble.

>> what about the u.s., in particular, how much of a cushion do you think the u.s. has? because it's been in better shape than the rest of the world when it comes to this interest rate shock we're dealing with. >> the u.s. is really remarkably strong when it comes down to labor market and when the labor market is so well performing, and unemployment is so low, people feel comfortable to go out and buy things but you see how rates are swinging up. that is going to have impact on the housing market already is having some impact on the housing market so, we would see this slowing down inevitably. let me say that this as clearly as i can this is a price to pay to bring inflation down that is worth paying because if inflation is a runaway train, then the consequences for both growth and people, dramatic

>> so, the question is whether enough has been done if you were fed chair powell, what would you do right now? >> carefully watch the numbers, because he has now -- the part he has to walk is very, very narrow if he doesn't tighten enough, inflation may deanchor if he tightens too much, there could be recession so, chair powell is doing his best to watch the parameters in the economy to calibrate what he does and i have trust that he would take the right -- he would make the right call. >> i guess i'll put it another way. do you think our economy can handle enough jumbo sized 75-basis point rate hike and another 50 before the end of the year, which is what the market is expecting >> well, it is possible. we do expect that '22 and '23, the rates are going to be somewhere in the 4% territory.

and how big the hike should be really depends on how the economy is responding. you saw that employment numbers came up. they give chair powell information. and looking at consumer demand and investment, propensity to invest, these are indicators that are saying, the u.s. is somewhat losing that momentum. but still performing better than other economies. >> what about the rest of the world. we've seen the strength of the dollar, the spillover effects you have been warning about as well how severe is the impact at this point from what the fed and other central banks are doing? >> it is quite significant because the combination of strong dollar and high interest rates is hitting emerging markets with weaker fundamentals, and practically across the board, low income

countries, quite significantly just to give you the numbers, we look at emerging markets 25% see either their cut off markets or their bonds trading in distressed territory. 25%. you go to low income countries, over 60% are at or near that distress. territory, 25%. look at low income and almost 60% are at or near the distress. >> we will see defaults? >> inevitably. we've already seen defaults. we've seen sri lanka and it is now the moment that we will use next week for that for creditors, and please come together, face the music we have to have much more aggressive posture on better structuring and especially the large creditors, china, private sector, it is in their interest that we prevent a wave of

defaults. >> speaking of emerging markets and not the emerging market. the uk and the u at the imf came up with a pretty unusual rebuke with the new prime minister liz truss planned to cut taxes why do you feel it necessary to do that? >> this is a message we convey to everybody that at this time monetary policy and fiscal policy have to go hand in hand otherwise, to give you a picture it would be like monetary policy stepping on the brakes and fiscal policy on the accelerator, very dangerous one and that is the message we convey to the uk, as well. >> so she walked back some of it on the top tax rate and there's still $40 billion worth of cuts at a time when they're trying to fight inflation. so how problematic is that >> what i see is the uk is mobilizing what they have which is strong institutions you saw bank of england acting

appropriately very quickly and now the office for budget responsibility is going to step in so what is going to be presented would be based on careful assessment and on data that you can or cannot do what you are proposing. krystalina georgieva, not enough time to hit all of the spots with imf morgan with i would say pretty severe warnings with what is happening around the world right now and the economy. back to you. >> sara, great stuff sarah eisen. as we head to break, costco reporting september sales while they were slowed compared with august year over year, revenue continued to decline signaling ongoing strength in consumer spending and food and other essentials and those shares were up 2.5%, but first our jon ford is live from google's pixel event with a look at what's

coming up later on "tech check." hi, jon. hi, morgan q4 is an important hardware quarter. google here in brooklyn has announced the pixel 7. pixel 7 pro and the pixel watch at longlast. that is powered in part by fitbit hthe ceo and co-founder of fitbit, james park will be with us and the features built in and the philosophy behind it coming up on "tech check." ♪ icy hot pro. ♪ ice works fast... to freeze your pain and your doubt. ♪ heat makes it last. so you'll never sit this one out. icy hot pro with 2 max-strength pain relievers.

to adapt in a fast changing world, so you'll never sit this one out. you could hire a professional pit crew. go, go, go. sorry. nope. okay. fresh donuts - hot coffee! they deliver real time data and business forecasts when you need it. i think it was fine how it was. (air tool sound) to help you stay ahead of the curve... or you could use workday. the finance, hr and planning system that helps cfos make better decisions faster. on the other hand, we had a great fourth quarter. for a accelerate your decision-making world. workday. for a changing world.

>> welcome back. although it is a negative period apartment went nationally during the third quarter. diana olick has more. >> apartment demand has, quote, evaporated due to what appears to be a freeze in new household formation. the third quarter is historically a strong leasing period, but demand actually fell this year according to real page and that's the first time it's seen a third quarter drop in the 30 years it's been tracking apartments summer is usually a busy turnover time in the rental market, but move-ins generally outnumber move outs. that did not happen this year. asking rents which were easing fell month to month in september

for the first time since the end of 2020. rents usually dip in september, but they did not last year vacancies for apartments are low given overall strong demand and it did drop to 4.1% and while reit stocks are getting hammered due to higher interest rates, another red flag for apartment reits is there is a record number of new units under construction because there have been even pre-pandemic, an apartment shortage we are getting supply and weaker dem demand, not a great risk incomes have improved with incomes up 13% year over year. demand softened at all price points so it may not be affordability to lower consumer confidence morgan >> interesting th of course, this is the leading indicator for the inflation

data diana olick, thank you we talked a lot about elon musk and the news extends beyond twitter. at noon yesterday spacex successfully launching its crew mission for nasa, crew 5 to the international space station. expected to dock this evening for a five-month stay and four astronauts are onboard the endurance capsule including the first native american woman and the first cosmonaut to travel from american soil in two decades especially notable in light of everything going on in ukraine. crew five is the eighth human space flight from spacex and it speaks to a blistering and unprecedented pace of rocket launches for musk overall. we had another starlink launch just hours later out of california and 60 or one every six days is expected this year it also speaks to the emerging economic success of these

private/public partnerships between nasa and commercial space companies because keep in mind, david, it was just last week that nasa announced it was with spacex and jared isaacson about a mission to possibly extend the life of the hubble telescope, as well to something that would not be coming out of taxpayer pockets. >> wow i didn't know that i'm always learning something from you musk, you can imagine that there are days now between tesla, spacex and what most likely will soon be twitter. on spacex, just remind me. $125 billion, when was the last number >> 127 billion do we know his actual ownership stake? >> i'll go back to the number because some people are still trying to figure out the numbers in terms of how much more he may have to raise and/or at least come up with to complete the equity check for the twitter

deal, morgan, but 60 launches in a year amazing. >> unheard of. nobody comes close to that you look at a company like spacex and it perhaps offers the bullish case for what musk can do when he decides to put his mind towards building something else. >> we'll see what happens with twitter. we'll have more on that during the course of the day, perhaps that will do it for us here on "squawk on the street. "tech check" starts now. ♪ ♪ good thursday morning. welcome to "tech check." i'm carl quintanilla with deirdre bossa. we will check in on a few sectors within tech including big calls today from goldman on pins and take two. plus the state of hardware, a key theme going into q4 and the holidays as the biggest names make big bets on the biggest launches jon is liv