really interesting >> yeah, that stock has been on a nice run, of course down from 700 bucks. so, whatever steve weiss, the man who tweets about himself. what have you got? >> and i'll tell you why first, i'm one of my favorite topics >> go ahead, quick >> cash, i'll tell you why if the jobs number is below 200,000 meaningfully tomorrow, i'll deploy some because i think you'll see a trade, been going for a couple of weeks if it's well above, i'll be glad i'm holding. >> now you've got to apologize to "the exchange," because you took some of their time, which begins right now >> reporter: steve weiss owes it i'll put it in the ledger. welcome to "the exchange", everybody. i'm melissa lee. here's what's ahead. stocks falling for a second day in a row following a strong standard to the week and what sector could be a big buying opportunity right now plus, we're less than 24 hours away from the big september jobs report will getting kids back to school full-time get workers back on the job?

we turn to recruiter.com for clues on what to expect tomorrow and real estate mogul john beigel live. we begin right now with breaking news on the fed. steve liesman joins us now with the headlines. hey, steve >> melissa, hey. the federal reserve governor lisa cook in her first speech as federal reserve governor saying that ongoing rate hikes will likely be required in addition to that, a restrictive policy will need to be maintained until there's confidence that inflation is coming down towards the fed's 2% goal at some point, she says, will it be appropriate to slow the pace of increases, but that depends on progress regarding inflation. policies she says should be based on inflation data showing it's actually falling, rather than forecasts of data there's a risk high inflation becomes entrenched, she says, and that inflation is stubbornly, unacceptably high, and broad-based. very much onboard with the committee on this. cook joined the fed in may,

hasn't spoken until now. inflation declining sooner than anticipated, she says, with risks skewed to the upside there's some easing of inflationer pressure and some easing of supply bottlenecks, and good prices have been coming down, but service prices are going up any concern at all this biden appointee was somewhere not going to be onboard with the inflation fight, i think we can put those to rest with this speech, melissa. >> steve, can you put these comments into context in terms of other fed speak that we've gotten recently, potential in light of the comments from professor jeremy siegel, who says that the fed seems to be a monolith of thought when it comes to how they're going to fight inflation. how that in and of itself is troubling to not hear many dissenting voices out there saying, you know what, maybe it's time to pause maybe it's worthwhile to wait and see what we have right now >> she would not be onboard with what professor siegel is saying. she seems to be onboard with what everybody else is saying.

we had kashkari on this morningn yesterday. all three of those seem -- well, bostic and kashkari seem onboard with bringing the rate up. there is talk about bostic of a pause, but not until they get to what they consider to be a particularly restrictive rate, melissa. >> steve, thanks the market has been trading in a tight range ahead of tomorrow's crucial jobs report let's get to bob pisani with the new york stock exchange with more after such a big start to the month, stocks had every reason to sell off before the jobs report >> it hasn't, but it's a sort of indeterminant day. what you want to look for, melissa, is sign that the risk-on trades are continuing. what's risk-on it's very simple metal stocks had done very well at the start of the week transports were at new lows. some of them right now, there's

the s&p 500 right now, down about 20 points. we were positive early on here, but look at some of the sectors here metals were up early on. they quickly, basically, flattened out. transportation stocks were at a new low last week. semiconductors also stopped going down, but we had two great days of moves up on semiconductor stocks they started in positive territory and really didn't go anywhere and there's arc that was positive early on. there's advance micro, strong. well off of the highs. nvidia, some of the oil stocks like occidental are up and material stocks have held up pretty well throughout the day so overall, this isn't a roaring move, like we saw in the last two days, but still pretty good. i was fairly encouraged by the earnings movers today, melissa most of these were big consumer names. so we saw, for example, conagra. they had great earnings, big price hikes. they reaffirmed the guidance

there. that was pretty good overall constellation brands had amazing beer sales they beat the numbers. the guidance was only fair there. they didn't really hike the guidance much. and i think that's why it's down to about 2% there. a little disappointment. mccormick was a really big trust. they reaffirmed their full-year guidance a lot of reliance on price hikes by these consumer names, melissa. and in my book, simply all three reaffirming their full-year guidance is a bit of a win remember, a lot of people were expecting companies to lower guidance for the fourth quarter, at least in these three reporters today that didn't happen melissa? >> although two of the three are down considerably, so it wasn't enough in the case of constellation, they wanted them to raise the guidance at this point because they beat so well. and the fact that they only

raised it on the high end is a little disappointing they're expecting earnings estimates to actually go negative to me, reaffirming is a bit of a win. >> our next guest says trying to time the fed is similar to gaining, but if you're a long-term investor, it's time to get into the market. joining us now, christian ladue, the director of fein-depths at p trust. i'm just wondering in terms of the timing of getting into cyclicals how early do you want to be when early often in the investing world means wrong. >> really, your timing should be centered around the fed. and gaming the fed is kind of a silly word around that, but we're trying to figure out, what are the metrics that the fed will be looking at in the next three months, that will tell you when the rate cycle is going to come to an end >> and wald -- i mean, i would assume that one would be employment, and there's growing thinking that we'll have to see that unemployment rate up to 5%

before we can even entertain the idea of a fed pivot, which would ill be, i would imagine, a signal to you to start getting into cyclicals is that what you're waiting for? >> absolutely. that's exactly what we're looking for. those kind of data points on the labor market, but on some of the key inflation metrics. when you look at the zil low data on rents and housing, it's already starting to come down. we just have to wait for the fed to realize that it's being restrictive enough and see it in its data >> let's talk about some of your picks, christian, because they're interesting to me. newcorp. you want to get into newcorp now after all of what he said, that things will get worse before they get better. even when it's the united states producer, it's also what's going on in china. >> that's right. you'll not be able to time when china reopens exactly, but take a look at the estimates on newcorp. the consensus is already looking

at more than a 50% decline in earnings next year i think that's probably enough, but even if it isn't, it's trading at less than ten times that number. and if it goes to 15 times, that's still an acceptable price level for a stock like this. >> enter public and advertising name we've heard so much, about companies scaling back, all when it comes to hiring, when it comes to expenses, when it comes to advertising, specifically and yet you like this one, why >> this one out of the group has a little bit more of the health care exposure, which is less sibling. but i think the numbers are already starting to reflect that advertising slowdown that you mentioned, and this is a company that's probably going to be in actions within their business early on in the process. so when advertising does come back, the advertising supporters like interpublic are going to get the activity first >> the last pick is also an interesting one, acuity brands

but i want to go back, but specifically for newcorp, we're expecting or what is it, that earnings growth would be down 50%? earnings would be down 50% for next year. that implies that that original level was correct. if analysts were too bullish to begin with, then being down 50% doesn't really mean much to me i'm wondering how you sort those things out when you take a stock and say a stock is down 90%, maybe it should have never been at that level to begin with. being down 90% is neither here nor there when you're actually deciding whether to put money into it. >> actually, the estimates haven't been cut the actual level of earnings for 2023 are likely going to be down more than 50% from the 2022 levels yes, 2022 earnings were anniinflated by some shortages in the industry and some rapid recovery from covid but 2023 will be a more normal

year and you can build from there. >> thanks for walking us through that christian ladue with cap trust >> the market is in wait and see mode ahead of tomorrow's big jobs report. our next guest has unique insight into what we might expect, according to recruiter.com, for the first time ever, none of the roles recruiters worked on filling in september were new positions, a sign that company are not expanding. and i.t. and software engineering were the hardest hit. the latter, which saw job openings fall 21% from the previous month as highering slows, companies are shifting to lower-wage positions. september job openings paying between 15 and $40,000 a year jumped a staggering 82%. to make sense of it all, let's bring in recruiter.com ceo evan stone. so distill all of that for us. headline numbers, it seems like the jobs market is fairly

strong, still. >> and a great hesitation, right? companies realize the expense they have in getting these employees. and we predicted earlier that the u.s. economy would spend $50 billion more in '22 over 2019 in talent acquisition and i think companies are hesitating to lay off more workers knowing that they may have to bring them back. yet as you just mentioned, we saw this huge surge in the sub-$40,000 salary bucket. so there is recruiting and hiring going on, and those recruiters are being shifted towards the lower salaried workers, leaving the higher ones either in this hesitation moed mode of what we do with them and employees are quitting we saw more people quit in august of '22 than they did in july of '22. so employees are quitting. i think in the survey, over 50% of the candidates reported by the recruiters had over two jobs in the past year so employees are quitting,

companies need to hire and fill those roles. but as you mentioned, not one recruiter reported that 1 hurkds pft roles they were working on were new roles so it's still taking a significant share of that market >> when do you think that pendulum swings? for an employee to have two jobs over the course of one year, if i were somebody who was hiring, i wouldn't want to hire that person it shows that they are absolutely mercenary and have no loyalty and i can't depend on them does that pendulum shift if we're all talk about the fed raising rates to the point of pain in the labor market, eventually the pendulum does have to shift. eventually people don't have that luxury of to demand working from home and demand quality of life issues and be quitting jobs two times a year >> i think good talent is always in demand. depending on the company, talent could be a factory worker or a

restaurant worker, good talent will always be in demand good talent can make determinations on what sort of culture and work/life balance they want to have. and the companies, if they want to fill those role, they have to find those employees that also aline with those roles but five years ago, if you saw an employee leave within six months, you would say, gee, i question that employee and now, if they say, gee, it just wasn't a good culture facility, i didn't want like the mission that the company was on, you might look at that employee a little bit differently today than you did five years ago. >> in terms of what you do, evan, i'm curious, how do you look through a jobs report like, for instance, tomorrow morning, when you read through that jobs report, what will you be focusing in on to tell you what you are going to see or is it the reverse does it confirm things that you suspected. how do you use that data, if at all? >> we usually use it to go, gee, we were right here we look at the swings that we're seeing and look for the data to accompany those swings but i'll tell you, the numbers

that we typically look at as the jolt report, how many people are quitting, how many people are getting hired. that really gives you the health of the overall job economy not necessarily new jobs, but who's quitting and who's hiring and how many of those in different sectors. and when we're seeing more and more people quit, it also means more and more people are getting hired. and that's actually very good in this new economy you know, we predicted earlier in the year that the great resignation would be replaced by job mobility and we're really seeing that people are still being more mobile they're leaving companies, candidate sentiment won't tick down one bit from 3.7 to 3.6 month over month it's still really high it's still a good candidate's market place we saw salaries go up. we saw applications to jobs actually go up also. so more people are applying to a fewer number of jobs but it really is this hesitation that we're living in now, as companies are really figuring out, gee, what's going to be

next for them with the looming recession. >> evan, great to speak with you. thank you. evan sohn of recruiter.com coming up, he called the summer drop in energy prices at the end of may right hereexchan. up next, why both long-term and short-term investors should pay attention with crude on pace for its best demand since march. we'll take a look at the impact rising rates having on renters and check in with real estate mogul, don peebles, about what he is seeing at his properties and as we head to break, take a check on the markets. as pisani has said, we're in the wait and see yield we've got the s&p 500 down by just about .4% the s"the exchange" is back rigt after this

welcome back oil and energy stocks surging on the backs of those controversial opec plus production cuts. the energy etf ticker on pace for its best week since november up 13% our next guest checked the charts and says now is the time to get long and stay there and it's worth considering given that he's nailed his energy calls all summer long. let's welcome in carter worth, founder and ceo of worth charting carter, good to see you.

earlier in the day than usual. what are you looking at? >> what's so interesting that quite often, what we all want to believe, and there's a lot to be said for doing that, sometimes it is just about trend lines the xle literally touched down to the pen kbri to a trend line that's been infect for two years and bounced perfectly. and the question is, did it bounce on the trend line or bounced because opec said what they're going to say but why is it so often that those two things align a fundamental juncture and a technical juncture the important thing is that energy shares act so well relative to the market look at that chart one could say though those lines are manipulated. they're not. every single time the sector has touched down to that line, in effect, for almost two years, it

has bounced. and so short-term, up 19% from an absolute low. xle, i would write calls, if you're in a longer term frame of mind the thought, what's not to like comes to mind. >> war you seeing for crude oil and what is the correlation there? is there a base level price at which, you know, you start getting worried about the charts, carter >> crude is acting sort of in line, day-to-day, with the energy shares, but let's put it in context we know it's a six-month decline. that peak was march 7th. we touch a low of 76.50 just last week. but the thing is this. when you have that sort of blowoff ukraine-related event, we went up essentially $40 a barrel from 90 to 130 in six sessions and that marked an important top. and just as crude was loved then, it really was, it was

hated just days ago. and i think when you get the extreme readings and sentiment, you want to take the other side. and sofor my thinking, crude i fine here and you want to be long the space >> and xle, that's integrated big oil companies, but do the charts look similar when you take a look at oil services or take a look at some of the more nat gas sort of names? >> well, summer is considerably better versus xle, which is the aggregate, and dominated by exxon and chevron at almost half the way. but something like an lng is better than xle, while the drillers are not as good it's important to say, as a sector goes, and we know this is only 22 names. it's only about 20% of the s&p on any given day and the total market cap of the energy sector at 1.6 trillion is around where microsoft is at 1.8. >> jeff mills had lng as the

final trade. i was shocked to look. we know energy has been a great returner, but lng is just -- that chart is amazing. what's your take >> it's sort of north by northeast, steadily higher, ever-ascending and never gets parabolic. it's as orderly as something like united health care. i'm with him on that lng, stay long, be long. >> carter, great to see you. thank you. carter worth of worth charting coming up, peloton announcing another round of layoffs, but the ceo says that restructuring is done and now they're focused on growth. will the company be able to make the pivot now that its market cap is lower than its annual revenue? "the exchange" is back right after this >> announcer: and now, cnbc trend tracker.

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- yieldstreet presents: alternative investing with kal penn and older kal penn. - oh, the stock market is doing that fun thing again. - hey news from the future, you're going to live through that about 10 more times. (laughs) - oh, it's no stress. i just discovered yieldstreet. they vet investments that don't ride the stock market rollercoaster. - ooh. i think some of my gray hairs just reversed. - yeah. you're welcome. - [narrator] become an investor today. yieldstreet: private market investing. welcome back to the exchange let's take a look at the jobs market we have not too much movement in markets. pretty much right where we were in the middle of the day the s&p 500 is at 3767, down by .4%. we're about 30 points off the

highs, 20 points off the lows of the day. nasdaq is almost flat, down by ten points, 11,137 real estate and utilities are dragging the markets lower speaking of energy, barclays is upgrading transocean to a buy, saying the stock could jump nearly 70% from here the shares are up 30% from week along. their best since july. goldman sachs upgrading pinterest to a buy rating. the firm sees upside to revenue growth whereas for take two, the analyst believes macro head winds are in the stock down around 30% from january now let's get to bertha coombs for a cnbc news update >> here's what's happening at this hour. four members of a california family including an 8-month-old were kidnapped on monday and have now been found dead the 48-year-old suspect is in custody in connection with the case he is talking to investigators from a hospital after a suicide

attempt. for full details on that investigation and what evidence authorities are collecting, tune into the news at 7:00 p.m. eastern. actor kevin spacey appearing in a manhattan federal court tuesday morning as trial is set to begin nearly five years after anthony rapp accused spacey of sexual abuse rapp is suing spacey for $40 million over an alleged encounter in spacey's home in 1986 when rapp was just 14 the trial marks the first time spacey will defend himself in front of a jury. the january 6th committee is scheduling its next hearing for thursday, october 13th it will likely be the last hearing before the midterm elections. melissa, back over to you. >> bertha, thank you still ahead, rising rates putting pressure on one real estate segment in particular our next guest says that is presenting some significant opportunities. ebs estate developer don pelejoins us live on the other side of this break stay tuned

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welcome back it's not just the housing market that's cooling off apartment demand went negative last quarter for the first time

in 30 years. diana olick joins us now with what is behind this plunge diana? >> well, melissa, i hate to say it's the economy, but it is. we heard consumer confidence in the economy, at least according to economists at real page, which just reported that apartment demand has, quote, evaporated in much of the country due to what appears to be a freeze in new household formation. the third quarter is historically a seasonally strong leasing period, but demand actually fell this year and that's the first time real page has seen a third quarter drop in the 30 years it's been tracking this as a result, asking rents, which were already easing earlier this year, fell month-to-month in september for the first time since the end of 2020. vacancies for apartments are still very low, given overall strong demand, but that rate did pop up 1 percentage point to 4.1% now, while reit stocks were already getting hammered due to higher interest rates, another red flag for apartment reits is that there's currently a record number of new apartment units under construction, because

there had been even pre-pandemic, an apartment shortage so we're going new supply and weaker demand together, not a great mix. higher rents may also be playing a role, but incomes and rent payments have actually improved in recent months, with incomes among new lease signers up 13% year over year demand also softened at all price points and that's why it may just be again, melissa, that lower consumer confidence. >> all right diana, thank diana olick. while apartment demand dropped next quarter, our next guest says the rental market will hold up as mortgage rates climb and that luxury home buyers, the builders and brokers will get hit the hardest let's bring in john peebles, the chairman and ceo of peebles corporation with projects in many major cities, including new york, miami, and los angeles don, pleasure to speak with you. welcome to the show. >> thank you, melissa. good to see you. >> you know what is so amazing about what's gone on in terms of the environment is that rates have risen so incredibly fast. and i'm wondering if you think that that has worked its way in

terms of the pain to be felt across the real estate sector yesterday, or if there is another shoe to drop here, as we are, you know, digesting these much higher rates. >> i think that, yeah, the market is actually kind of in shock, because the rate movement had been so fast we went, say, a year or so ago to essentially free money, 2% for super prime borrowers to 5 to 6% in real rates for mortgages, are running between 5.5 and 6% the monthly mortgage payments for the median household income buyer is up at least 100% in some instances, about 150% so that's putting a chill on new housing purchases. and i think that's going to go for a while, because rates are continue to move however, the apartment sector is a very different story and i think right now, i think people are just taking their breath as fewer people can afford to

buy or they're not feeling it's a prudent decision, you'll see more people rent >> as a developer, don, how have you changed your view of where you invest and how you invest, given the rising rate environment. how as it changed from even six months, where the rate environment was a completely different one. >> well, we were looking to develop several of our projects around the country, for-sale projects and we think that for-sale projects that would get delivered, say, in the next two to three years would be problematic. five years or so out, that will be a different story i'm talking about continued minhium sales. those typical condo sales are moving into rentals. take miami, for example. miami is, for the average renter, they're going to need to spend more than 50% of their income on housing. that is unsustainable. and so what has happened now is people are looking at more creative ways to, how they live

or how the new housing formation, but looking at other markets now. because success to a certain degree breeds more success, but at a certain point they're after, it starts creating a place where it's very difficult for businesses to operate. and i think miami is getting to that place right now, where we're going to have to pay people a lot more money in order to be able to live in miami. and so i think other places around the sun belt, like texas, arizona, and tennessee are going to continue to do well charlotte, north carolina, is a big sleeper, i believe, and i think they'll do well on the rental side, very much so. >> something really caught my ear, don, in terms of what you said, the for-sale projects that you see, that could be a problem. but five years should be okay. does that mean that you think that the economy will be in a tough situation for the next two to three years or so >> things won't get better, until five years from now? that's a long time >> well, i think -- i started my career in 1979 and interest rates at that point

were 20% and the fed was trying to control inflation with raising interest rates and the market was so resilient that it kept going and the economy kept doing, with these interest rates and then you add it to an energy crisis there was an oil embargo by opec against the united states. now what we have is very rapidly increasing energy costs. my correspond is that we're in for not a soft landing, but a crash landing. and i think that what that means is that people are going to be priced out of the housing market for quite some time. we're going to see values decline in most markets, especially the ones that have run up and that have bad fundamentals to begin with. i think we'll see those markets decline very rapidly and i wouldn't be surprised to see housing prices in some of the key markets like, say, l.a., pull back 15 to 20% in the next 18 months. >> crash landing and that's crash landing for the economy at large, not just the real estate industry or does the real estate industry feel it even worse

>> i think the real estate industry and the economy -- i think the real estate industry feels it worse i think we'll have an economy where we're not -- i mean, you're already seeing the dynamic change in terms of employee/employer relationship and now it's an employer market in many places and it will continue to be that way. the government will have to stop paying people not to work. that has been one of the biggest challenges and also, the housing market interest rates were too low for a long time. the fed should have been moved interest rates a couple of years ago, slowly. and what has happened is that all of these buyers were looking at this free money, because it was. and so why not buy now, money is going to cost. and back in the 1980s, interest rates were at 9, 10, 8%. when i bought my first gnhome i 1987, i paid 9% and that was a good deal. one the economy adjusts to more higher interest rates, i think we'll see the housing market recover, but it will take some time >> it's like a frog in a boiling pot of water

you throw the frog in and it's a shock, and that's the situation we're in, as opposed to turning up the heat gradually. and we're not actually doing that so you're saying class "b"and lower office buildings, they're already at low vacancies and will have it even tougher. are you looking to scoop some of these up as opportunities and can you actually turn them around as office properties? or would you, you know, reclassify them into some other use? >> i would reclassify them into some other use if you look at what happens, say, downtown manhattan, after the financial crisis and so forth, you saw a lot of office buildings get converted into residential. i think that these class "b" and "c" and below office buildings are in a very difficult territory now, because there's really no demand and so as the leases role, they cannot renew them at anywhere remotely close to what the

leases were before these buildings were bought or renovated, based on a set of economics that are very different. rental rates are much lower for that kind of product and two, interest rates are much higher so the only way out for those buildings, i believe, in most of the key markets, is going to be the look to convert them to an alternative use. that would be residential rentals, potentially hospitality. but i think there are opportunities in that. we are studying some of the markets and paying attention to those markets that we think have a large inventory of that kind of product, because i think they're going to be given back to the lenders just think about it. blackstone and heinz in the last two weeks gave office buildings back to their lenders themselves that's just the beginning, though >> don, great to get your insights thanks so much >> thank you, pomelissa. >> don peebles still ahead, the deal is on, hopefully. it's been two days since elon musk is sticking to his plan

about buying twitter david faber will join us next with his latest reporting. "the excng iba itw hae"s ckn o. - oh, the stock market is doing that fun thing again. news from the future: you're going to live through that about 10 more times! (laughs) no stress. i just discovered yieldstreet. they vet investments that don't ride the stock market rollercoaster.

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welcome back to "the exchange." the drama over twitter continues. shares lower over reports circulating that there are still multiple headwinds pacing this deal, including a hiccup in financing. our own david faber joins us on this story with the very latest. david? >> interesting, melissa. you know, that hiccup in financing, that at least i can fill some blanks in on much else is still a mystery at this point in terms of what the two sides are doing, because we have been waiting for what we call a joint stipulation to stay the litigation if you recall, we were reporting on the letter from musk two days ago, 48 hours ago, in it he said, i'm going to buy 5420, like we agreed to, but i need you to stop litigation

and of course twitter said, okay, but we're not going to stop litigation without 1 h% assurance that you're going to buy us that's where we are right now. we would have thought that this would have been resolved what we heard from her was yesterday saying, so far i'm planning for a trial on the 17th of october we don't expect that to happen although twitter stock has sold off a bit and is trading well below 54.20. if you were to get a deal very, very soon, as we said on tuesday, it could close very quickly. but on this question about the financing, at least, i can tell you after numerous conversations with people in a position to know, it's going to get funded the financing should not be in question, at least based on everything i'm hearing it simply shouldn't. there is no plan at morgan stanley or anywhere else to not

fund this if they get asked to will they invoke their 15-day marketing period they may do that unclear. some have been speculating, because the banks are going to take a hit on it it may end up not being as bad a hit, but it will be a hit given the significant change in interest rates suns they first signed on to that $13 billion financing. but, it's not in question here tlooeds based on everything that i have heard what is in question, melissa, is exactly what's going on. and when we're going to get something that we can actually report on that investors can act on, that says, okay, they have now go it in writing everything that has to happen. and them making that happen. so we're kind of still waiting >> and in the meantime, nobody has filed a stay on the trial. so that's set to proceed even if elon musk, even if the conspiracy theorists had it right in that elon musk did this

because he didn't within the to depose, because who knows what could turn up in a disposeposit, this doesn't solve the problem >> no, they're going to solve tht simply, for whatever reason. you can an't blame twitter forrg nervous. we're not going to set aside the litigation at the same time, musk could buy the company, he'd own it and then he could stop the litigation upcomings are that we will still get there. but again, it is kind of curious that we've been waiting here for two days your point on the deposition is an important one the best thing we can come up, he really doesn't want to be deposed. you can be asked about anything. it was delayed it was originally scheduled for today and tomorrow again, stand by. we'll see. any minute, we could learn

something or be sitting here tomorrow asking the same questions. i wish i had more. >> wait, waiting david, thank you for being so patient. david faber. up next, six more months that's how long ceo barry mccarthy is giving peloton to turn itself around can they do it and if the growth strategy fails, who could be on the short list of buyers we'll discuss this after the quick break. and be sure to tune into "closing bell" over time body. scott gminerd will join scott wapner this afternoon.

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welcome back to "the exchange." peloton announcing yet another round of job cuts. its fourth so far this year. the finish company will remain another 1,100 jobs, or 12% of its remaining workforce and barry mccartney says he will give the turnaround six more months or it will no longer be a viable solo company. so if you can't stand alone, who could stand to buy it? joining us is the business editor at axios. great to have you with us. what could be in store for peloton. >> let's start with that

six-month thing. folks inside of peloton are saying to me it's not that mccarthy is saying, we've only got six months and the house is on fire, but six months would be one year after he took over he seems to believe the turnaround is going to work. but in six months, you'll know for sure that's the period, but he has said he says he thinks things are on target despite the huge layoffs today. which are really his first major layoffs that weren't related to something strategic. earlier ones were about manufacturing, and retail as well but going forward, peloton is a very interesting acquisition target for lots of companies, particularly big tech and fitness that don't have anything like it. >> big tech like whom, apple >> apple absolutely. there has always been talk about how peloton wanted to be the apple of fitness one problem though is that peloton's actual technology is tablets run on android, which is why google would make more sense. an apple typically doesn't to

big acquisitions just a few and google if it was willing to suffer the possible antitrust look at it, google would make a lot more sense even though again antitrust and also they have had some hits and misses, more misses when it has come to health >> what is this company? if barry mccarthy were to market itself to other companies or pe firms, is it a subscription based service, a technology company? it has the hardware aspect to it, but what do you think is the primary for peloton. >> i think still that it is a media company which is what foley would have argued. and particularly when you look at what mccarthy as done, you can still buy the hardware and tablets that go on them, but he has gotten a rid of the back end that appepeloton owned. they are not doing their own manufacturing and delivering anymore. so he'd argue that they are a

subscription based media company that still has low churn among subscribers. >> so let's play it out. if an apple bought a peloton, would we see this service on apple tv is it like that, or does it take peloton and sort of revamps the bikes and makes them white and sleek and also puts their ipads on the machines? >> so ipads on the machines maybe. i don't know what they would do about that integration i don't think that they would change the look. apple bought beats and they didn't make all the headphones white. i think there are white ones, but they didn't completely change beats would you see it on apple tv, probably just like if netflix bought it, you'd probably see an integration there. one of the things mccarthy is trying to do is get more adoption of its app. you can technically get peloton content without having its bike

or treadmill and certainly putting it on apple tv or a product like that would make sense >> do you think it has enter barry mccarthy's mind that they don't need the hardware component or in some way they should separate that from the business and should simply exist as a prescription based service? >> well, it depends -- you know, mccarthy continues to talk about the core fitness as the crown jewel and part of that at least historically has been the community built around that and part of it is on social media and facebook and things like that part of it is the interaction that they have on the actual machines with the leaderboards and things like that i don't think that he would give up the hardware because the hardware is even though it is expensive, it is one of the differentiations between peloton and all the other apps out there that do running classes and yoga classes, et cetera it is that physical device >> what is your guess, in six months peloton will be,

independent, bought, bought by whom >> in six months peloton will have at least gotten a good buyout offer whether they are willing to sell or not, i'm not sure, but i think someone will make a bid for it >> all right we'll see. coming up, cruise lines can't seem to catch a break. shares of norwegian falling more than 37%, but still outperforming its peers. what will it take for cruises to course correct we'll ged t the headlines next your projects done right . with angi, you can connect with and see ratings and reviews. and when you book and pay throug you're covered by our happiness check out angi.com today. angi... and done.

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it seems like things are falling apart lately.

the economy. the market... everything. but upwork lets you strategically hire talent to weather all ups and downs your business might go through. look at all that talent. ♪♪ just moments ago an internal memo from barry mccarthy responding to the "wall street journal" article we just discussed saying the article creates the impression we have six months to live, which is at odds with the story we told in the state of the business. that is on me and i apologize. so again, just to underscore what dan had just said, six more

months to see if the turnaround is working, not six more months to live. let's get to one more thing before we go switching gears, norwegian cruise lines investor day is being held aboard their newest ship docked in new york. and seema mody has all the headlines. >> cnbc has reviewed the investment deck presented to shareholders today in which norwegian cruise line outlines an aggressive expansion plan it currently has 29 ships in it fort follow i don't with another five on order for delivery starting next year the cruise giant also detailing its continued bet on the luxury consumer saying it has more market share than its competitors. it comes after carnival released numbers that shocked wall street sending the stock down about 22% on friday. since then you've seen many of these names come off their lows. but despite reiterating bookings

that will improve in 2023, investors still seem more confident in land travel versus sea travel and analysts say upon review of the latest bookings data, that there is a clear sign of accelerating corporate travel and a stable recovery for the industry they are going as far as saying that this should set up for positive earnings revisions for the major hotels despite all the investor skepticism and concerns about a recession forthcoming. >> was there -- is there also this notion of pull forward of travel and that is hurting the leisure only areas like the cruises as opposed to the hotels which have as you mentioned diversity of customer coming in, the business as well as the leisure traveler >> yeah, that is definitely part of it. and plus pricing too, despite some of the economic headwinds and concerns that people are delaying travel. you are still seeing pricing hold up very strong for the major hotels for the cruise lines, it has been a slightly different story. >> thank you, see made knowity

> seema mody. and norwegian ceo will be joining jim cramer at 6:00 p.m. you won't want to miss that. and i'll see you at 5:00 p.m. on "fast money" with your countdown to the jobs report and that does it for the exchange "power lunch" starts right now and welcome, everybody, power lunch. here is what is ahead. retail investors are bailing on stocks according to jpmorgan, they haven't sold this much in individual companies since march of 2020. we'll tell you what they are selling, what they are buying and what they are getting rid of and it includes well-known names. plus rolling the dice, corporate america binged on cheap