did close today, the under performer was the dow. the nasdaq held up, the locus of the weakness was in the cyclical stocks, and also defensive stocks. utilities were one of the weakest groups definitely giving way, talked a bit about the real estate sector as well. small caps not as bad, down about half a percent as we wait for that job number. that does it for overtime fast money begins right now. right now on fast. from bear market baths to bear market blues. hawkish fed talks casting doubts on the pause. plus gains in energy trade pumping big profits this week. up 14% as crude has been on a climb. later, a major move in marijuana stocks because of an executive action by the white house. elon musk's new move as he tries to bring the twitter deal to the finish line. twitter says not so fast. this is fast money, we are live for nasdaq market, i have a whole house tonight.

karen, dan and guy all with me. we started breaking news out of the fed governor, christopher waller just now starting to speak at the university of kentucky louisville. steve leishman has all the headlines., steve. >> throwing more cold water on the pivot trade, he says he anticipates additional rate hikes into early next year. current policy is slightly restricted though he is starting to see some adjustmen , more on that in just a second, but he says recent inflation reports do not support a slower pace of rate hikes, or a lower terminal policy rate than using vision. policy he says must be used aggressively to bring down inflation. we talked about this issue of financial stability which has been making the rounds, whether or not it would stop the fed from rate hikes, he says financial stability is unlikely to stop that, and therefore, unlikely to derail but he says it is unlikely and therefore unlikely to derail rate hikes. some increased volatility, but

overall he says they remain orderly. he says the treasury and equity markets are functioning normally. and, the fed has tools in place to address financial stability concerns. on the issue of housing and interest-rate sectors, he says, so far, the -- has been fairly mild but he cannot rule out the possibility of a much larger drop in demand and in housing prices. he expects housing inflation because of the calculations to continue well into next year. >> steve, santelli was talking to scott maynard in the ot just now and he said basically that he thinks the fed will keep going until something breaks and the chance of a financial accident happening is greater overtime. why do you think the fed is so monolithic in what it is telegraphing to the markets? yes, they wanted the markets to really believe it, but, it is interesting that no one is expressing any sort of doubt

about how far you need to go, especially when we have not seen the impact of the rate hikes, yet. >> i think, because they don't have inflation or control they are not seeing things, like in the bce they are not seeing things come down or the progress they had hoped for. one of the officials who spoke said he had seen the inflation progress that they were hoping for. also, there is this notion out there about financial stability, and whether or not something will break. i can't argue with scott maynard's production projection. i will say that i talked with two guys who run trillions of dollars, and i asked them, if the financial crisis was eight number 10 on the richter scale in march of 2020 was a 10 also, what would you say? they both said five or six. so, there is some illiquidity out there, they can get things done. scott is correct, at least i can confirm what scott said,

that some things are being done in small lots, you go down the credit inspector, some things are tough to do, sometimes in certain tenderness, there are wider aspects, but i am not hearing any kind of seizing up that would require the fed to come in. i think there is this tendency to compare what is happening right now with what happened in england. so far, i don't see or hear those kinds of things out there. things are tougher, but they are not a situation of financial instability. morgan said it earlier, really well earlier today she said, don't confuse market volatility with financial instability. >> yeah, unless you are seeing huge gigantic moves in the bond market, the most liquid market in the world. i mean, i understand that sentiment completely, and i agree with her 99% on that, but i think that these tremendous moves we have seen may be signs that there is something happening under the surface.

karen has a question. >> yeah. steve, i am wondering, does the fed want to talk the stock market down? we had a giant rally, and then, the hawks came out en masse with the same basic hawkish rhetoric packaged differently by each of them but they really wanted to drive that home. they wanted the stock market down. >> you know, karen, the resettled phrase about, you may be paranoid, but that doesn't mean they're not talking about you behind your back. i can see how you would feel that way being in the stock market, but i guess i can report that i don't think the fed aims for the stock market to be at a certain place. i think it aims for bond yields and financial conditions to be tighter overall. the stock market will fall where it is, it will fall with higher bond yields. i think that is the way the fed looks at things but i think it feels as if predicting the

stock market reaction is going to be very difficult for it to do, but, it can influence the bond market, and that is what it is attempting to do in the primary situation. and, secondarily, is what happened with the stock market. >> steve, thanks, as always. we have headlines as we count down to the september report. economist expect in the u.s. to the 250,000 jobs last month. stocks back for a second day ahead of the report and the yield on the 10 year treasuries climbed back about 3.8%. what impact will waller's numbers have on the market? about 3.2% on the dollar index also just a whisper away from highs, here, up more than a percent. tim, what do you make of it? >> a couple of days ago i was able to get excited that the dollar is down 4% in four days, et cetera, dollar up over 1% today, but two-year, i think the short end of the curve is more sensitive right now considering what is going on in the fed funds, your back at 4.26 or 4.33 was the high.

focused on the labor market, a tight labor market, every fed official in the last week we have had many and a bunch today, seems to be only focused on the labor market. bissett has a dual mandate, inflation and growth but they are not talking about growth, obviously, but, to be clear, they are leaning so hard into one side of the book they make it clear they don't want to overshoot. >> are you a fan of my angela's work? >> of course i am. >> she famously said, when someone shows you who they are, believe in the first time. what do you think rates are? they are telling us they want things lower. believe them the first time. it is clear the stock market is not in their purview correctly now for the first time in years but i don't think it is an snp put as much as it is a market put. the credit markets shows no signs pick some cracks in the armor, but no signs that if the credit market goes we will have a much different pivot conversation. until then, they are full speed

ahead. >> do you think there are cracks in the credit market that are slowly showing themselves? >> slowly, but not, i mean, the credit markets, they don't really move smoothly, let's say. have stops and starts, financing market to lbo is very tight to shut down. but you look at things like the l cutie and the hyd, they are trading lower but you're not seeing giant downgrades or any defaults really. i think, as you get closer to refinancing. >> yeah. this will sound perverse, almost, but we wanted jobs report that shows a bad number. when i say good number of means week. a bad number, meaning more jobs lost. unemployment rate goes higher. that is what the markets want. >> yeah. there are probably a host of scenarios that are below the

estimate or above the estimate that probably don't move the market particularly violently. i think a really high number probably does, right, is the unappointed rate does not move up in any way shape or form, that leads us to believe it will get near 4% anytime soon, that is probably not great for stocks. we talk about that gap that we saw monday morning, as guy said, gaps are meant to be filled. i expect that gap that's filled quickly then we are back at a tricky technical level, back towards the june lows we were contending with. to save us from the comment about economic conditions and how risk happens, go back to 2007. you remember there was a little haywire action in stocks and some other risk access assets in the summer but the fed cut the discount rate but at the time they really did not give any hint they would cut fed funds and they did, not soon after. then, things really started to get a bit unwound. so, when you think about all the tools in their toolbox,

yeah, they have them, but when they start to move, if they do, because they are worried about financial conditions, people talk about things breaking. the things that break go straight to what you are talking about with credit and all that sort of stuff that we have seen currency movements, we have seen weird moves in commodities, we have seen the volatility in rates. we are probably not far off from something like that, if they were to persist in a manner, right, a bit further than people suspect. again, i think they will do what they need to do, if they pushed too far, and i think a lot of people are thinking they will break something and pushed too far. >> if the thinking right now -- i am reluctant to say consensus but i feel it more and more people are saying that 5% unemployment rate is what the said may target. maybe that will be the signal for the fed to pivot. >> that is a long way from where we are right now, where we are projected to be when the numbers come out tomorrow at 3.7%. what does the world look like on the way to a 5% unappointed rate? that -- >> the lifetime, tim can speak

to the spigot is not happening over the next couple of months. that says over the course -- my sense is over the course of the year. what does the world look like? it is not improving any, what are people willing to pay for earnings in that environment? not as much as they are paying now. maybe that put in the s&p comes into play for there's so many moving parts. 5% is a quantum leap from where we are now. >> 5% in 2015, in april of 2015 and it was a different world. we talked about these reference points you learned in business school, the nonaccelerating inflation rate of unemployment -- non-inflationary rate of unemployment. and so, at what point do you get below, is there inflation? well, we shattered that when you think about all the deflationary tailwinds from the technology market but the reality is, we have a participation rate that also is

kind of a joke right now. we need more people back in the labor force but that is something that could happen. that is something that could provide a lot more relief and if you look at the last couple of job numbers, the participation rate has been interesting. it has been a little bit better. part of the tightness in wages up 5.1% year-over-year is because there are not enough people in the job market. >> the next couple of months will be weird because of holiday seasonal hiring so that's another cloudy to this whole -- if the fed will focus on jobs, we got this other filter to take into account. >> i think tim's point is, if we have the numerator shrinking and the denominator getting bigger, right? that is how you get there more quickly for big unappointed numbers. but, i don't know if they need to actually get there, or if they need to see the pace of unappointed quicken? i don't know. >> yeah. for more on this let's bring in the former national economic council chief president, joe, good to have you with us. what are you looking for? do you think 5% is the pain point

for the fed? >> probably. it's a nice round number, it's a lot higher than where we are now. if the economy shrink 2% next year, which would be an average recession relative to trend growth of two, that gets the unappointed rate around 5 1/2%. guys pointed accurate but it takes a while to get there but we could have a much different labor market if we have a hard landing, which is what i expect. >> do you think that the fed stops its pace, or stocks stops its hikes before the 5% number, if it sees that things are going towards 5%? that things are listening? >> yes. definitely, melissa. the fed has talked tough, but right now they can hide behind low job numbers and a decent labor market, they will fold pretty quickly, in my opinion if the job market starts generating 100 thousand or 300,000 job losses per month. inflation is a lagging indicator, the market will

leapfrog any future weakness and inflation will start the price instead easing of the fed will be cutting. >> i would submit the policy mistake was made many years ago, doesn't matter. we talk about the fed for the s&p 500. i think it is maybe 3000. does it exist? what is your level for it? >> 3000 is probably the right number, because at 3000, you will probably see credit spreads widened dramatically. is probably more important because when the fed gets worried about solvency issues than they really start to move aggressively on easing and start to re-expand to eat which is what basically happened in 2019, they stopped and started to expand the qb, the cut 75 basis points. if the s&p is 3000 you're looking at high-yield of another 400 basis points, there will be more talk of solvency, with liquidity issues, i think there were more signs of fertility than meets the eye. in that kind of environment, the fed will be at least stopping qt and maybe pivoting

more. >> joe, let's talk about qt for second. to what extent did you attribute any of the backup in yield at this point to have anything to do with the fed in terms of the balance sheet? at what point do you think this will also have upward pressure on interest rates? >> tim, the balance sheet is really impacting liquidity, and you've got an inverted yield curve. so, i don't think that has been a function of the balance sheet it has been a function of where the market picks the terminal rate is and with the exception of the move last week which pushed the yields up to 4%, basically the third month out eurodollar contract, fourth month out, fourth contract that has basically protected one-for- one the movement in the fund raid. if the fed was disturbed pivoting in the spring, which i believe is very possible, you will see the 10 year note rally substantially. >> joe, all these forecasts are being made assuming that the fed is going to act, and we are living in a world where these things are in place. but you know, there is an

interesting thing going on in california right now where they are having out stimulus checks to people. i'm just thinking that the path to 5% for a lot of americans will be a tough one, especially if inflation remains sticky. are you concerned that there won't be political will on the parts of states or means abilities or even the federal government, to actually allow that pain to be inflicted? which will, in fact, derail the fed's work? >> there's no question that giving people money for energy cost. you need more supply, more drilling, more oil expansion, more everything in terms of energy output. clean as well, i want to be politically correct. the political blowback will be on the fed itself. the fed is accountable for all its actions, very transparent, they said they want to get inflation down, they cannot hide behind the reserve

procedures that volker operated under where they did not target interest rates, they targeted the money supply. to me, melissa, that is where the blowback would be. you've artie seen the ims, a few senators, against the fed, can you imagine what happens at this rate to hire and the economy weakens? paying hundreds of billions of dollars to banks because of the excess reserve payments we are making with unappointed rates deteriorating, can the fed really have the gumption, the backbone to say, i don't think so? >> joe, great to see speak with you, thank you. >> thanks, everybody. >> karen, what do you think? >> i don't love the idea of just giving money away. so, to the people who need the money, obviously, they need the money. but, i think your last stimulus is really problematic, so this is a small one, but i cannot -- it feels like adding oil to the fire. >> policymakers fighting each

other, you have fiscal and monetary tug-of-war. central banks do this forever, and made it really difficult on policymakers because it was basically financial oppression. when rates are zero people cannot save, the middle class gets screwed. but, this is what we are seeing. you can't give money away. >> what i find interesting is, i'm not suggesting any of us but if they were to pause, nothing happens on the back of that other than the stock market going higher. i would submit, if that -- >> for a while. >> but i think the commodities market will explode to the upside. so, the inflation problem they think they have under control is just getting that much worse. this genie is out of the bottle and it is very hard to tamp it down for they will learn the hard way, i think that lesson if they decide that. >> they have to stomp it down. as opposed to just stamping. >> you can just stop that sucker. >> identity that. >> i suspect it happens sooner

than we think that we were just talking about financial conditions. if you look at the elk ud, investment-grade corporate bond etf down 23% from its highs last year. that is more than the s&p 500 is down. you think about it, obviously this is corporate debt. so, all the things you're talking about at high-yield, that is much worse right now. if you think about where valuations are, where the economy is going, if we do get to 5% implement over the next six or nine months, our economy will not be in great shape and they will have to pivot. i suspected towards the end of this year, we will get all the state governors coming out and saying, hiking in the next year, we will see that a bit quieter towards the end of the year. >> coming up, news crossing the wires here, after our session down 4% for napa details on that next. we ill bring you the details to check into what imes t anfor the broader semi space, that is when we return.

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the flagship plan is losing one star. that means that, in the following year, the bonus that they would get for being a four- star plan will be significantly lower. so, they are warning about that. is not going to impact this year's revenues, not likely to impact next year, but they will probably have to spend a bit more to try to bring those ratings up at the issue, apparently, customers complained about the network within that plan. so, when that star rating drops, as you are seeing t really impacts how much you can get, in terms of a bonus later on. >> bertha, thank you. bertha coombs, with the latest, on a cvs down 4.6%. >> i own it. i don't want to see this book the entire 23 two would not be effective, it makes sense to me, but, they are saying, they also cannot get to their 2021 guidance. it will be a lot harder, now. this is unfortunate, but that

might be a bit overdone. it is not like this is a frothy stock with a huge multiple. so, that selloff might be overdone. >> in the meantime, amd shares drop after the company warns q3 results revenue for the quarter coming in at 5.6 billion, versus 6.7 billion anticipated gross margins expected to come in around 50% versus 54%, previously. the company had cited softening pcs sales and inventory corrections in their release. another one. >> yeah. this is a massive revenue shortfall. guidance in early august, since then we have seen and video, it can competitor in some areas that they play, also announce and then died lower. so this does not even include with the guidance looks like. i don't think you can assume it will be better. the other thing, when you think about the full year, 2023, i mean, i really do think we have to start thinking about what eps declines look like year- over-year.

identically have had that moment were enough analysts have said this will be a tougher environment for all sectors and all stocks. >> nvidia down a couple percent right here. both of these stocks or hemorrhage. amd down 50% off those highs. we started talking about different parts of the semi conductor space because they are not all the same because you get into semi already trading 12 or 13 times versus its historical 12 to 18 times. somewhere, you start to look at the second half of next year, that is what the morgan stanley notes said is where you should be buying these stocks somewhere in the next 3 to 6 months. >> makes sense. think about it, this is a $155 stock but not that that matters, but the point is it is obviously more than cut in half. you start to get to levels where even with this guide, you will start talking about amd for the first time in a long time, reasonable on valuation. what concerns me here, and hear from a lot of different people, you have not heard anything

from apple and please don't add me on twitter, but you wonder if it is just a matter of time before the signs/into apple, their demand and what they might say going forward but just throwing it out there to create a conversation. >> i think most people on this desk think that is to come. >> i just don't think i know how it couldn't. if you look at all the signs we are seeing from different places, so, yeah. >> i feel that we are in that vortex where bad news, each keeps trading down on the others bad news. but it is the same years again and again. it is not surprising that pc sales -- the size of this revenue, i don't know if we are dumping them or what. >> deeper into the next quarter we go, and bee stings,, that just underscores the fact that things are not turning around. they are proceeding on the back half. >> the cycle of releases is such that they are beating this as a prelim, this is a company that has endured a lot of pain.

that have not really given us this kind of a pullback. revenue back 17%. that is a big adjustment for a big company. >> all of us on this desk, we have been through recessionary periods where markets are starting to anticipate what a difficult cycle looks like and how long it takes to trust. you know, you've got to take out 2020 because the visibility there was so poor and all the stimulus and the weird dynamics about work from home and all those sorts of things. we know these periods, they usually take multiple orders to fix themselves. the other thing they really need to do is, again, i will just go back to, we need to see analyst come down and/2023 estimates. these stocks wound bottom until that happens. >> there is a lot more fast money to come. here is what is coming up next. heading to the finish line. elon musk saying, finally, he is willing to close the twitter take over on the original terms. but what our options traders are saying about the deal? we dig in. tick tock on the clock. but, this party may stop. bite dance losing billions of

the company chases growth. is italy time until u.s. tech stocks fall tohe t same craze? the details next. you were watching fast money, live from the nasdaq market set in time square. we are back after this. i'm on a mission to talk to people about getting screened for colon cancer, and hear their reasons why. i screen for my son. i'm his biggest fan. if you're 45 or older at average risk, you have screening options, like cologuard. cologuard is noninvasive and finds 92% of colon cancers. it's not for those at high risk.

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will come back to fast money. shares on twitter clawing back, the company just filed a motion saying it once it's trial against elon musk to proceed as planned to sing his request to call off existing litigation is a invitation to further mischief and delay. the ceo says he wants to close the deal in its original terms. there is a lot of movement

interruptions today. mike, what have you seen? >> four times the average daily options volume and twitter which is already one of the busiest single stock options. puts traded well over four times their average daily number, and put volume did slightly exceed call volume. options i was taking a look at, resolve almost 19,000 of those trading, the 50-40 put spreads, the buyer of those is obviously nothing that it is not a certainty that the deal will close by the end of the month. there's a possibility that twitter will fall below that trading price, perhaps much lower by january expiration. >> if you had to bet at this point mccarran, which way would you go? >> oh my god, i was looking at it all day long trying to figure it out the have you ever seen a princess bar ride where they keep switching their drinks and you think well, the other guy must think that i

have the poison so i will switch. i don't know. in the end i didn't do anything. of course they are accusing him of mischief. who is more mischievous than elon, right? he can't be shocked that they are calling him mischievous. this is the craziest deal i've ever seen. i have no position, wargames kind of thing, it's best not to play. >> dan, you are still in the camp but it's not going through? >> i don't think by the end of the month, i am just following what saber is saying and i will trust him because he is doing great reporting but we talked about it tuesday after close when the stock was 52 and there were only 220 left, november 50 puts were literally 2% of the stock price, suggesting there's a 30% chance that they would be in the money, meaning the deal would not close at the 54-20 price. i'm still in that camp. >> mike cugno, thank you. for more options tune in eastern time. sticking with social media space , is the clock ticking on tiktok's parent company? new report shared with employees of the company revealing byte dance lost

billions of dollars, even though revenue grew by more than 80% in 2021, costs ballooned as it expanded into video games, semiconductor development and official intelligence. the company did post an operating profit in the first quarter, but rising costs will also plague u.s. competitors like facebook and snap. and do rising cost impair it in its competition against these players? does it give facebook and snap a better chance of actually beating them? i don't know if that is the right word. >> listen, a lot of facebook headwinds are headwinds that they created. this is one of them, that will maybe abate a bit. i do think it is the reason to give the all clear to buy facebook at these levels. what i will say, some of these other social media names around what you just said, listen, goldman sachs clearly watched cnbc says money monday through friday. did you happen to see that? $31 price target on it. so, that is the place to be.

if there is value, theoretically, in twitter, i think at a certain point, pitch it, as is not, by the way. >> the big issue here to me is not so much what is going on with meta-verse and spending, it is really cost per clicks, and where they are and they have been destroyed. we are talking about media companies, the first to respond to recessionary headwinds. this is the place where i would be very excited to get back in on the turn and i think they will be first to respond on the way back, it is not time. >> i did buy some meta-today. >> you did? you added to your position? >> as you said it is getting destroyed. i think that, if you look at where pinterest trades, it is not even remotely close, and there is a tiny black swan, which is, what if our government were to say tiktok, you are done here. is a tiny black swan for meadow that would be so favorable, right? it is obviously not priced in a single tiny bit. >> it seems like it's a little

duckling as opposed to a swan. >> it's not full-fledged. >> as we get further away from the original idea, it seems less likely. >> you're not paying for anything with the stock market here. with this balance sheet, more. >> so, dan, value trader trap? >> i will just go to meta-, the earnings perspective 25% this year, talking about how they will monetize a different environment with different competition, investors clearly don't like that, the stock is down 60%. i agree with karen but i do think that meta-is probably not so far off. i don't think you will want to bet against mark zuckerberg if this thing is down nearly $300 billion market cap and they still own what they own as far as the digital ad markets, given the secular shift. if there are any issues as it relates to tiktok here, if we get into for tat with the

chinese, this is an easy one. for them to block. i agree, first thing, meta-is up 10%, then snap after that. >> news on twitter, the delaware judge has halted trades until october 20th to allow the deal to close. we just learned that the stock is ticking higher as we speak which allows the deal to -- i mean, it is allowing time to happen. >> there is the aspect of debt raising. in what sense is this stock in the position to raise the same debt? no way. there is no reason even for 10% left in the deal. at this point even a little bit less. 8% in this trade. you can play it by options and leverage up but if you are levering for this deal to close at 54, i'm not sure why you're doing it, especially with the,

what did you call him, you rascal? >> mischievous. rascal is a great word to. i was chatting with david faber earlier today and he said that he believed according to the sources he has talked to that financing would happen. and, that they could invoke a 15 day marketing period , which may get you through the october 28th date, but that would happen. >> welcome it has to happen. this is not an out for him. the banks are on -- >> the bank is out for him. he could raise more cash by selling shares. these banks are not going to take hundreds of millions of dollars of losses after the citrix lbo. >> i think they are. >> why would they? >> they have to. their reputation -- >> why? what if they go to war with him and say listen you spent the last four months denigrating this deal, not because of other things it is worth less because of the market and evaluations.

i think it is the exact opposite but you said it gives him more time for the deal to close, i think it gives him more time for the deal not to happen. to me, i think this is far from over. >> more time for mischief. >> i'm not clairvoyant, i might have gone to school with claire, but i guarantee if you put it has low chart up now it is lower. we are in each other's head. >> it's frightening. but, it has had -- it is down 10% for the week. all right. we will bring you more dels evop as they come. in the meantime, we have more breaking news, dressed kings, back in 2.

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welcome back to fast money. breaking news on draft kings, surging with reports of a big deal. bertha has the details. >> just to report at this point, melissa, but bloomberg is reporting that draft kings may do a deal with espn in order to do some sort of a sports betting situation. of course, we have had espn talking about trying to restructure and doing things

there. draft kings up about 9% on the news. we are trying to get some sort of confirmation from both companies. so far, nothing. back to you. >> bertha, thank you. disney shares are down by a quarter percent at this point. not much movement on the draft kings side of things but it is interesting as disney ceo has said they would be open to do anything and here we are, doing almost anything. >> guys made this point a long time ago, that if disney got ready for espn attached to gambling that would be the best thing that ever happened. from the draft kings perspective it might be the best thing that ever happened to draft kings, too. the good news for people that have been some of these gamers and i think it's why caesars isn't bought is you are seeing a much more rational promotional advertising environment, possibility on the horizon and you are seeing a market that grows. said at these levels, yes.

i can and do owned draft kings. >> yeah. >> guy has been making this point for a long time. there's a lot of questions about the cost of sports rights, this is one way to help better monetize that going forward in a market where you are seeing a lot of cord cutting up the pressure on that? i think it makes a lot of sense. i'm not sure you chase draft kings out of a room right now. >> look at the casinos. a couple of decent days. i'm looking at wind, the highest levels we've seen since early spring, very quiet. these casino stocks are getting off the mat. i'm not suggesting the world is magically getting any better, but tim says this all the time, when things go from really bad to small bad, that's what we are seeing now, something about that. >> less bad. >> back to myopic >> she is much more interested. >> 11% of the flow.

part of the squeeze we are seeing, moving on this report, we should underscore that, report that it is near a big partnership with espn, so those shares are up by about 12% right now but we bring more as they haven't. down day for the markets, energy rose higher. we have the names leadg thine pack, next. (vo) hi. we're visible. a different kind of wireless company... ...running on a big impressive wireless network. how are we different? we exist only on your phone. so you get unlimited data for just $30/mo, taxes and fees included.

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welcome back to fast money. energy stocks continue to climb today, the only s&p sector to finish in the green. let's take a look at the shares of exxon, hex, conoco and marathon petroleum closing within 5% of highest. stick with these names, i checked with chris on the exchange, they are both in favor of energy stocks. they say they like them right now. to people in the pantheon of technical analyst are saying to buy. >> yeah. we talked about it. parthenon, they were everywhere. they are somewhere that i'm not. listen, yes. and, we talk about, forget about 52 weeks, these stocks are within whispers of their all-time highs in an environment where crude has not

traded particularly well, very quietly. exxon, chevron, conoco, phillips, big names are making moves. i think they are trying to tell us that even if crude were to stay at this level, in my opinion, on a benign day, these stocks should be higher than they are now. >> up 25% in the last year with every move higher, the present move lower in crude or brent, that is why it is good to talk to technical guys about this, too. the performance of the xle versus underlying over the last eight sessions is extraordinary, and they are all breaking up 300 day. accrued and brent at the 50. interesting day. geopolitics in the space are unbelievable right now. the mudslinging and the politics around oil for this administration at a time they need every vote, look, the battle royale with opec to the extent it can happen is only going to help pricing right no . the whole thing about the

strategic reserves, it's to a few more out there, that's pretty comical. and it's not going to do anything other than highlight that we need more supply. that is the problem. >> i am playing it through the oih where we deftly need oil to move a lot, you certainly don't need it to move higher. it could move a bit lower in his company for printing money, i think they will converge. coming up, huge news in the cannabis space today, what president biden did that had pot stocks lighting up. the details when fast money returns. this... is the planning effect. this is how it feels to know you have a wealth plan that covers everything that's important to you. this is what it's like to have a dedicated fidelity advisor looking at your full financial picture. making sure you have the right balance of risk and reward. and helping you plan for future generations. this is "the planning effect" from fidelity.

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big news in the cannabis space, president biden pardoning thousands of people convicted of marijuana possession and ordering a review of federal pot laws. the president has also called on governors across the country to do the same. sending pots cops stocks start skyrocketing piglets understand the dynamics here. we are talking about criminal justice, this is different than federalization, different than

getting these things listed on the exchanges. investors want that, but it is very important that this is incremental. what is important about this announcement is, first of all, this was not made in a vacuum. this, to me, is an announcement close in conjunction with something that will follow in the senate, which we have been talking about in the cannabis space forever. safe banking to the extent that a lame-duck session, there has been plenty of conversation that there could be something that happens. i'm not going to tell you it will happen, i will tell you that there is no question to me that this was not just a statement made in a vacuum. the other most important thing about what he said, as you alluded to, the schedule, the schedule one status of cannabis, the same as heroin and lsd. you remove that dynamic and you make the possibility of the sector night and day difference. free cash flow, the big headwind for the sector have been about gross margin and markets and things that are a function of the federal market, but this gets right to, if you get rid of to ade, which is essentially the tax code the irs would apply to any schedule one or illegal activity, if you

remove that, it changes free cash flow dynamics. so, it is a very exciting day, a long time coming, this was not whimsical and criminal justice is critical to get other people in the senate to be on board. >> you have been waiting for this, people have been tweeting about it over the last couple of weeks. tim can speak to this, but this is one of those seminal moments in the space, in years to come, we will talk about this day when it all changed. now, i'm sos is one of the ets you obviously have one as well, but i'm not seeing you to chase these because i'm sure there will be ebbs and flows, but, i think the space for the first time in a while, you're not going to see that downward airgap volatility like you have seen over the last couple of years. now it is investable for a period of time. >> yeah. it is kind of a brilliant political move, this was a campaign promise by biden a couple of years ago and the timing of it. right before the midterms, people like this stuff. >> stay in school, kids. >> speaking of pot stocks, don't miss her when simon

tomorrow and closing bell, that's 3:00 p.m. eastern time on cnbc. up next, final trades. ♪♪ ♪♪ be ready for any market with a liquid etf. get in and out with dia. you love closing a deal. but hate managing your business from afar. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire

a lot of big movers this hour. let's recap. shares of twitter giving back early gains after a delaware judge halted litigation against elon musk until october 28th to allow his

takeover deal to close. shares had gone up by as much as 2% in the after hours, now just about flat here. cvs dropping after a change to medicare star ratings which could impact revenues. we have that stock down by almost 5% and draft kings surging on a report it is nearing a big deal with espn. >> traders choice, which one do you want to trade as we head into the final stretch, god? >> can i go off the board for tesla and say the pressure in that name will continue, and i think the path of least resistance as it continues to go lower, this thing could trade down to 2:05 which would be the priest split level, that is what they trade down to pick >> what you think of cbs down 5% here? >> i want to model it out a bit more and see what that effect is. you know, this is a gigantic company. i am not quite sure what the 2023 beyond will be, but, it

feels a little overdone, but i'm not sure. >> which one do you want to pick? >> i wasn't listening, with twitter on the board? >> yes. >> i go back to this risk reward of four up, at max, to potentially a lot down, there's ways to play the options marke . >> all right. time for the final trade, let's go around the horn. >> we spent some time talking about energy companies, how about slumber j, which to me, is the digital play resources and the company that is acting to make commentary profitable. >> we were talking about meta-, i know there is disagreement there between he and i, but i think this evaluation, this is still an extraordinary company generating a ton of cash flow. they already have it on a flash. >> yes, over the course of the summer this has been banging around between 9.5% and 13.5%. the recent strength has to do with this twitter deal and potentially stuff that adds to that long stock position.

>> we get some of the best and brightest through that page program. adrian is in the parthenon, too. >> absolutely. >> he is well-dressed tonight. >> a sharp dressed man. >> there he is. >> when resorts. >> starts right now. my mission is simple to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now >> hey, i'm cramer welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to help you make some money my job is not just to entertain but to educate, teach. so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer. today, today i went to a brand spanking new