pot stocks soaring after president biden announced a pardon for federal offenses of simple marijuana possession. will the states follow just the blue states all of them? it is friday, october 7th, 2022 and "squawk box" begins right now. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. we're live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm rebecca quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. let's look at the equities it has been an up and down week for the markets. all of the averages are up for the week the gains offsetting the losses the last couple days the picture is mixed this

morning. dow up 70 points nasdaq down 27 this is coming ahead of the jobs report and a lot of things waiting for that the markets action come after stocks fell yesterday in the session. dow down 350 points. s&p down 1%. the nasdaq off .20%. the major indices on pace for the largest weekly gains since late june. you have been looking at the treasury markets that's the one we have been watching lately. the 10-year treasury is yielding 3.89%. today is the day investors in the federal reserve and everybody else watching what happens at 8:30 a.m. eastern time that is the september employment report forecasters expect to see job gains of 275,000 you can mark it down the unemployment rate holding steady at 3.7% that is the expectation.

average hourly earnings expected to increase by .3% which is up 5.1% from a year ago he we will see does that number come in hotter than expected? what does the fed do it? that's the story what does the fed do in in the meantime, president biden says the risk of nuclear armageddon is the highest. he says he knows vladimir putin well and he is not joking about biological or chemical or nuclear weapons. biden said we have not faced the armageddon since the kennedy administration in the '60s another geopolitical risk or more >> gray swan

>> the risks >> gray swan not really black it is not unexpected i saw the cover saying we are stockpiling radiation. cannabis stocks. now you don't have to worry about simple possession. surged more than 30% yesterday after president biden pardoned thousands of people convicted of simple marijuana possession. called on the governor nos in te country to follow suit 6,500 people federally a couple thousand in washington, d.c. because that's part of the purview. many more throughout the states. we will see if the governors go along. popular in terms of polling. the president instructed his attorney general and hhs secretary to review how marijuana is classified under the federal drug laws. you know, getting immediate

election in november not for the president, but there is an election and republicans saying that a lot of these convictions are not just simple possession there were other things going on which i don't know >> this is fulfilling a campaign pr promise. it is reminding me of the student loan debt. you take action that is going to relieve the pressure for a swath of people, but sets up the expectation that there will be a lot of people who don't get relief from the part pdon. this is what we have seen from the last several presidential administrations where executive orders are used to do things you would not have imagined in the past >> in a perfect world, you ask yourself do i want to be in jail for possession of pot? probably not hardened criminals we have all seen it. we all have seen what the prison

shows on some network. wow. simple possession and you're in with that group? it's doing more harm than good, probably do you need to be separated from society because you smoked pot you are just sitting in your house, right >> this pardons a lot of people caught up before it was le legalized in a lot of states it is not legal everywhere this is moving around and taking congressional action where you can say this is the law of the land now i think that is the thing. >> you have to drive to taco bell there is uber eats you don't have to leave. >> true. your house >> no driving under the influence. >> except we don't know that. >> how do you test >> you can't >> the one thing that gets me. >> me, too >> knowing what i know about it. it is not you are worried about people going 80. you are worried about people going 20 and other people who

are high going 80. that is the problem. people are so worried. now to the latest on the elon musk deal to buy twitter. a delaware court judge ruled that musk has until october 28th to close the acquisition of twitter if he wants to avoid trial. earlier in the day, musk asked twitter to avoid litigation to close the deal twitter refused. calling it an invitation of mischief and delay thinking this is lucy pulling the football away from charlie brown before the deal gets done. this is a win for elon musk from the judge. if you look an t what the judge ruled, this is great she was dead on with this on the next leg down on this. basically the judge's ruling if

you read it was brief. it said, okay. you said you will close the deal you want to abide by the terms of the deal that you signed earlier this year. that's great i will give you until october 28th at 5:00 p.m if you can't, this is going forward. there is something called judicial estoppal. you can't argue the previous position that you persuade the court to act basically elon musk is not going to come back and say never mind i can't do the deal because i can't get financing. she said you said you would do it based on the terms of the original agreement >> everybody has to do that. some of the other ones and bankers are losing their alan butts butts on >> i through is another side to it which is the argument he will

make if he doesn't pursue the deal which is there is this sort of -- and some people think it is funky language and some not around the financing piece of it to me, the question right now is, do the banks walk? >> are they allowed? >> they can't. >> they can do a lot of things there are a lot of things people think you can't do do they try? what reputational damage do they have >> and if the judge rules against this in the delaware court and are the banks going to say up yours to the delaware court? that is what they could be doing if she rules against them in three weeks. >> i don't think they would be in trouble with her. they would be in trouble with him and trouble reputationally if you believe they would be in trouble reputationally at all. there is still a dance here. i'm relatively in agreement that

this puts elon musk in a box by default. >> in terms of the delaware court. by the way, in that docume documentation, his lawyer said it would be faster to do it this way than the delaware court and appeal to the supreme court. they would get paid faster they are going to appeal if they lose. >> right i still think -- look, do you think he is just going to close his eyes and say okay. we're closing this on the 28th no what do we think will happen between now and then something. i would argue it will ultimately have to do with the financing piece. the financing piece, if it is about negotiations, it is around the leverage the only leverage he has is the financing. the question is will the banks help with that will they not help with that leverage what does the court think of

that that's the next leg of this dance. >> i will say the two filings yesterday and the judge's ruling on it made it clear the financing as you said is the key point. that's the one he is saying, okay, i might not have to do it with the financing aspect. her statement was brief. i don't think there is any doubt she will rule against him on the financing. >> i always thought that the question is could he try to pursue that path and appeal? >> right in the filing yesterday, it made it clear they will appeal. it does muddy the water for me it is like brilliant back and forth. >> you can tie it to the jobs report today you could. we have a really hard landing, they could lose more than half if we are already almost there and a soft landing, maybe high yield doesn't get crushed. >> i'll connect it more. if he buys the company,

thousands and thousands of people will lose their jobs. if he keeps the company or if the company remains independent, probably not actually, either way, a lot of people will lose their jobs. >> the banks are in for a world of hurt. across the board with all of the deals. >> i wonder if you are a bank in this environment and say this is screwed up so screwed up. whether they want his business for other things whether other clients say you are not good for the money i don't know >> look, this is the situation any time you go into a down turn the last deal you agreed to is going to be lousy metrics. it looked good at the time. >> memories are short. >> we didn't talk about draft kings and espn >> excellent story >> we didn't talk about -- >> they call that a tease.

>> you know what the over/under is six runs those two guys are good. this draft kings gets you excited about every single sports thing that's happening. houston and memphis. >> don't have any idea coming up, futures right now. we'll talk strategy ahead of the jobs report next after the jobs report, reaction from kyle bass from hayman capital. >> is the right answer houston >> i don't know yet. i have to do some work ner helps you are watching "squawk box" on cnbc >> announcer: this cnbc program is sponsored by baird. visit bairddifference.com. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪

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the environment is ripe for a crisis and if the fed keeps, you know, its hawkish communication up, i think that

we're quite likely to end up having something break in the financial markets. >> that was the warning from scott minerd of guggenheim partners on "closing bell" yesterday. joining us is kevin simpson at capital wealth planning. we like things to bend and not break. you think things are bending you think things are going to break? it had to be dealt with. didn't happen in the uk. they dealt with it do you think there is something under the surface here that could happen, kevin? >> for sure, joe the next six-to-nine months is the tell-tale time period of time for the market. the fed is doing everything it can for the tightening policy to bring inflation under control. they want to balance the jobs market today's action is indicative of how the jobs report comes out

this morning the actions of the fed aren't going to be seen overnight it doesn't happen with a snap of the finger within next six-to-nine months, we are in a range bound market we have to see if the tightening policies will work we will have lots of highs and lows along the way it is possible that we go lower. the pre-pandemic high was about 3,370 in january of 2020 that is only 10% from here i can make a case that friday was the low. maybe that was the joe kernen taco bell low? we're not exactly sure it has a nice ring to it this will be a bottoming proper c process. we will not have a v-shaped recovery. >> it is 1% from the june lows we tested them and so far you tested the lows. it is under 3,600.

i don't think katie stockton would say we violated them, although she thinks we will. it is not 3,200. most people think 3,200 is in the cards. do you >> let's play a game, can we >> i don't know. >> we'll keep it simple. >> i don't know you that well. >> let's say the earnings consensus is $200 next year. we submit that is too high give me a number where would come down? amd and nike and fedex bringing down numbers let's have you throw out a number >> first i would say did you mean nike? >> nike, dow, fedex, amd. >> that was my first question. you have to have a multiple, right? the multiple is what matters

what do you think? you want to cut 10% off it what would that be 16 >> it is too early for that math 220. 200. if we put a multiple and we are conservative, we make it 14. more glass half full, make it 18 anywhere in there, you are coming out with an s&p valued at 3,000 and 4,000. if we keep it simple, we try to overcomplicate things. we have a market that can get up to about 4,000 it could go down to 3,000. probably won't to your point, if the 3,200 is the bottom floor, we're a lot closer to the bottom than the top. i tend to be in the 3,500 camp looking how markets trade and looking forward to 2024 and looking optimistic you can see a little light at the end of the tunnel. we have been beaten up badly closer to the bottom than the

top. if the jobs report comes in weaker than expected at 225 or 250, i think markets will celebrate that if it comes in hot and has the past three months, i think markets will recsell off today >> we have that going for us we will know at 8:30, kevin. come hell or high water, we will get that number. people should watch. thank you. >> thank you when we come back, elon musk enjoys having candid conversations on twitter about skir security issues. as the head of spacex, does that raise concerns let's look at the biggest winners and losers in the s&p 500.

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now back to elon musk. his tweets about the war in ukraine bring up an interesting point that was flagged by cnbc specifically the spacex is a defense contractor and tweets are unorthodox at best for a government contractor. joining us is the managing director and interesting manager director of the company. alex, you are a combat veteran which makes unique in the pc world. i know you admire what elon musk has done why don't you talk about that? >> first of all, thank you for

having me on the program, becky. i think before starting with anything, i want to acknowledge the atrocities of the war in ukraine and everyone affected. that being said, i know your questions of elon musk and s spacex i think mooelon musk achieved s much with spacex it is a wonderful example of public/private partnerships doing extra ordinary things for the government anything that excels to the united states of america and department of defense has to acknowledge the ceo has responsibility of what they are talking about in public disclosure is consistent with the values of the united states. >> and your concerns based what he tweeted recently is what? >> you want to make sure that whatever elon musk is saying is similar to spacex or starlink in

a combat scenario. specifically the war in ukraine as what we are talking about now. the way the technology is working with startups, there is a prepatrepidation working with companies and ones where the u.s. government had decades of relationship with and knows what they are getting into. i would caution anyone to include elon musk that maintaining that level of acknowledgment of what it means to be a company that is working with the u.s. government is extremely important. >> in other words, you would say don't start offering terms or conditions for what would be acceptable for settlement between the two? stay out of it lay low? >> i think that's a fair assumption to make >> what do you think this does elon musk has certainly been

someone who has been allowed to operate differently from other ceos we have not seen push back yet do you think there is some taking place behind the scenes >> it is always a risk the way this will materialize and i can't really attest to whether it is good or bad, that is up to the market, is the people on the other end of making contracting decisions are human beings who have an opinion of the jutoutcome of the war shl and should not be. there are people in the government working hard on diplomatic action and they could feel this is bolstering their position or get anything the way a bit. that will materialize in the power of the purse which is as competition continues to emerge, other great tech companies will come and will be able to work with the u.s. government in the capacity if that happens to be spacex, that is fantastic. i think elon musk will go on and there will be no issue there could be people who may be

more consistent with the views of the u.s. government and they may start winning contracts just because the way the companies are employed and technology is working and different aspects of the company are more consistent with the government's mission and they have to be sense tifr sensitive to that. >> alex, there are some concerned about the elon musk's efforts to buy twitter and if he owns twitter eventually and the implications of owning it with the free speech issues that arise in other countries and the implication of being the owner of twitter not just on twitter, but tesla and spacex. do you share those concerns? >> those issues are always going to be present. any time you have somebody who owns massive aspects of different parts of the u.s.

economy, this isis not idiosyncratic to the government. this goes back hundreds of years. the advent of the newspaper in the united states. this is hardly an elon musk issue. it is something we tackled in the past one thing i want to acknowledge is spacex and elon musk are doing something good having massive tech ceos in working with the u.s. government is a trend we're seeing re reemerge that is a positive all other aspects is elon musk open to debate to make sure he is doing that responsibly. >> alex, thank you very much that is a unique perspective we appreciate hearing from you >> thank you. coming up on the other side

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good morning welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are live at the nasdaq market site in times square

look at futures. green with the dow up 17 points nasdaq off 53 points new this morning, let's talk about credit suisse for a second that bank offering to buy back $3 billion of debt securities as it tries to navigate plunging share price and bets selling the savoy hotel. that is sparking conversations of liquidity this is pro-active to the approach to the overall composition. you will see over the next couple weeks a number of dispo dispositions part of the plan was for them to sell different businesses. i think what you like to do is sell businesses ahead of the 27th if this mystical 27th day, the day they announce earnings, but

announce restructuring it is not you just announce we are pursuing you want to say we did this, we did this, we did this, and we did this you see the trickle of the news as we talked about on monday if you get to the 27th because people are anxious of you doing all these things they telegraphed to the market they will do all these things. i'm surprised people are surprised. >> that is why there's the trickle of news. the 27th and 28th is the deadline for the twitter deal. big stuff coming up. >> mark your calendars >> they're in pretty good shape. capital wise >> yes >> it could get worse, i know. i understand how things get marked it doesn't seem like it. they will have to issue stock. that's why the stock's down? >> yes. >> the concern is people get worried about all of that and really what it is is a wealth

management business. we talked about this the thing you are trying to avoid. you want the wealth management clients to stay and keep their money with the firm. >> right this was a story we mentioned last hour. espn -- i don't know nearing a large new partnership with draft kings the sports betting company bloomberg report that says espn is seeking $3 billion over a set time period that would lead to a sports book re-branding itself with the draft kings with espn name late yesterday, our contessa brewer said a highly placed source with skin in the game, her words, said there is no truth to the rumors. draft kings would not confirm or deny the report. the company has a great longstanding relationship withes p espn i guess memphis is 4-0

it is in memphis >> advantages. they are giving 2.5 to ouston. i don't know what to do. before i put down $5, i want to look into it. >> or against who? >> houston and memphis. >> who is memphis 4-0 against? the four teams >> not great nobody the big game is rutgers this weekend. >> yes >> is that point >> ohio state was last week. that was painful >> you can't bet on rutgers. >> i don't bet >> i can't >> in new jersey >> i should rephrase that. you can't bet against rutgers. >> thank you meanwhile, before we went to break, we showed a mystery chart. we showed you a pharmacy

did everybody know it was shares of cvs cvs health falling in the pre-market and aetna downgraded issued by the center for medicare and medicaid services that stock off 5% this morning. >> nebraska is tonight, becky. >> i didn't realize tonight. >> it is here. you are getting three points. binance said $100 million was likely stolen as a result of the hack on the network. the company suspended transactions on the chain. it said the issue is contained and customer funds are safe. binance coin says it this fell on the news. changpeng zhao will be here this morning. and still to come, how to

navigate the return to office. we talk about what to do and whatnot to do right after this plus, counting down to the big jobs data at 8:30 a.m. eastern time we have predictions coming up in the next hour. reminder you can watch or listen to us a te t cc app. full plate. wait, are you my blind date? dancing crew. trip for two. nail the final interview. buy or lease? masterpiece. inside joke. artichoke. game with doug. brand new mug. come here, kid. gimme a hug. the more you want to do, the more we want to do. boosters designed for covid-19 variants are now available. brought to you by pfizer & biontech.

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morning and with concerns and recession possible in the next year, we have dos and don't of how to manage your career. joining us is sadal neely. she is the author of "the digital mindset. also jessica kriegel at culture partners why don't we start with you, jessica. what are we doing right now that is right and wrong i heard a lot of stories where i hear about the one foot in and one foot out >> i think everyone is a little bit confused we have both staffing shortage and about to have mass layoffs because everyone is frayed of the recession and inflation. we have to remember we are in a meritocracy. you need to understand the value that you bring to an organization you will not get a promotion based how long you have been with the organization or willing

to go into the office or not you will get a promotion if you have specific things you have contributed. the value you have an example of how you have done that and able to present it to your manager. knowing what your manager wants and producing that is the key. >> tsadal, we are all looking at this as a changed workplace. no one is going back to the way it was entirely before the reality is who gets a raise? who gets promoted? those are subjective decisions made by managers and knowing what your manager cares about and if they want you in the office, how do you operate around that? >> you have to ensure that you ares always present whether you are in the office in person or in video this is presence management. this is the sense you are around and insync and in touch. you have to show up on anchor days the days managers set for people

to come together you have to be present you have to contribute to a collaborative culture. other dos? send updates on tasks. don't wait because of a hybrid schedule, we don't see people all the time. we need to make sure work is moving forward finally, managers know that talent management is not about whether there's a recession or not and that we need because there are fears or not you have to create a work culture where people show up when necessary whether on video or in person in order to feel like we're all there and we're all moving in the right direction and, of course, bringing value >> jessica, you mentioned we're in a weird place where it is a strong jobs market, but things are changing tsedal said this

we like to manage our talent are we find to find out we are not dispensadispensable? >> yeah. i think some of the us will find that out i agree with everything that she said about being present there is a limit you can take it too far. being too present and too focused on being visible can lead to burnout. that is the great resignation. people pushed too far and took productivity to extreme. now people are saying forget it. i'm not going to work. we need to be present, but we need boundaries and take vacation and on vacation, unplug and be not present we don't check email managers, too. they need to role model behavior for employees so everyone knows it is okay to check out. >> tsedal, you need to come up with a list of things you have done or jessica made their point.

you need to be in their face i've done this this is what is going on is there a point where you become too annoying? i don't want to hear from you again. i don't want you in my office 12 times a day or popping up on my screen to tell you how hard you're working >> that would be a good problem to have today. when i talk to managers of companies across drindustries, they look and say i have empty offices. we mandated for people to return to office to be physically present and people are pushing back that is not the problem that we're facing today no one has time. what i'm talking about is not performative what i talk about is being present is feel like you are collaborating and present for clients and you are present for the organization and culture of the organization this is not anything about extremes this is trying to get to the average point where managers are struggling to do today

>> jessica, it seems to me in the era of covid, building a team got harder than it was before it's hard to feel connected. it is hard to feel like you are part of a team when nobody is around is there a point where managers are going to be able to reassert and say we are a team and you have to come together and be a team player? >> yes that is happening already. people are having mandates to come back into the office. i think the more elevated managers are understanding culture is not created in the four walls of your office. it is created in the experiences we share which shape our beliefs. those beliefs determine the actions we take and that gets us results. our research shows the strongest cultures, the number one predictor is clarity of results. as long as managers are clear on what it is employees need to accomplish and employees got the

message and we can do it over zoom we can do it the companies thriving have worked out how to work from home and employees responded to that. >> a clearer message from the top about what you need to do. maybe that is the most important issue right now. >> purpose alignment i think culture fit is a myth. if anything. it is an opportunity for unbias to come into the workplace we need to replace that with purpose alignment. what is your purpose how do you go for that does it align with the organization's purpose >> that is a fancy word. i'll boil it down to here is what you got to do and here is how you do it. you tell the boss, yes, i'm delivering on the things that is old school stuff >> becky, if i may -- i just wanted to under score the idea of elevated managers i couldn't agree more with that.

the idea that managers have to level up in terms of understanding how to lead teams in a work force from a distance is incredibly important. these are skills, actual skills people have to learn as opposed to trying to apply the pre-covid 2019 ways of leading and managing to today's new world of work >> understood. tsedal and jessica, thank you both it is interesting times as the job market shifts. coming up, the dollar has been surging against the yuan. we talk to the hedge fund manager with a big bet against the chinese krcurrency we will talk about it next "squawk box" is coming right back these straps are mind-blowing! they collect hundreds of data points like hrv and rem sleep, so you know all you need for recovery. and you are? i'm an investor...in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to... nasdaq 100 innovations like...

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welcome back to "squawk box. the dollar has been surging

against the yuan this year joining us right now is cio and cia kevin smith. his company has $300 million in assets under management. up 34% year to date in what has been a tough one kevin, nice to see you tell us about this bet and how long you think you can keep it on for at this point >> this is trade we've had for quite some time, actually, it started for us in 2015 and, you know, we've been playing it in kind of a strategy with put options, looking for a black swan event and we haven't had that black swan yet, but we have had a pretty steady devaluation of the yuan over the last eight years we've made money on it five out of the last eight years. we think the real big

devaluation, the more serious crisis is still coming >> serious crisis in china. >> well, they -- a currency crisis we think of it as a twin banking and currency crisis. if you look at the banking assets in china, they have grown sevenfold since the global financial crisis, sevenfold over the last 14 years. this is really something that's -- you know, we've never seen this before in any major country -- for any major currency anywhere on the planet. >> if you're not buying this, it sounds like you like gold too, right? >> we are -- we're big fans of precious metals. we have what we call the macro trade of the century right now and that is really being long in inflation hedge assets gold qualifies first and

foremost being short long duration, financial assets that are overvalued and then, you know, we want to be actually long the dollars. we want to be short, you know -- long duration assets we want to be long gold but we want to be long gold in the fiat currencies that are the most overvalued on the planet. right now that's china >> dare i ask, as a currency guy and as a guy who likes hard assets, what you think of digital ones in the context of bitcoin. we have bitcoin trading just under $20,000 this morning we have some finance news that some money was stolen. >> well, we have -- you know, to the negative side for us, you know, we've missed the bitcoin trade for the most part during the rise but during the latest fall, you know, also as cryptocurrency is

going through its growing pains, we missed that downside too. it's just not something we've gotten our arms around yet in terms of feeling comfortable in terms of fiduciaries in putting client money into those assets and we're fans of real hard currency assets that have been hard currency assets for hundreds of years. precious metals, but we like other natural resources and natural resource equities. we're not perma bears. we've been bearish a long time and we have -- bearish on the overall debt that we have in the global economy but we're actually, you know, very constructive in terms of a lot of our long positions today in the natural resource sector.

>> we appreciate it very, very much it's a fascinating trade and we will keep your eyes on it. thanks coming up -- we are in countdown mode for today's jobs data we'll get you ready for the report as much as we can also, what it could mean for the fed, plus, the amount stolen in a hack was not a hundred million, but $570 million. the company's ceo is going to join us this morning

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good morning investors gearing up for the september jobs report. we weigh in on what it could mean for the fed, interest rates and your money call it a win for team musk. the judge overseeing his trial issues a stay. or maybe not if you read the fine details the stock isn't taking the news so well. and another crypto hack. over $500 million worth of coin stolen the ceo joins us live. the second hour of "squawk box" quinns right now 12k3w4r50i6r7b8g9s ♪ good morning, and welcome back to "squawk box" right here on cnbc live

i'm andrew ross sorkin along with becky quick and joe kernen. take a look at u.s. equity futures at this hour may very well change in about an hour and a half when we get the big jobs number. we will see what that number is and try to read the tea leaves about what the fed may want to do about that number and how equities will react. right now, dow up about 50 points nasdaq off about 37 points the s&p 500 looking -- we're going to call it -- it's marginally in the red there. take a look at treasuries as well we're going to show you the ten-year note right now and also the two-year the ten-year at 3.851. and then as we think about the energy complex and all of the geopolitical issues we've been grappling with, when you look at oil, crude, $89.39 and we were talking about currencies bitcoin just under $20,000 we're looking at -- well, i said just under it's moved up.

$20,004. >> surging it's jobs friday leishman there's going to be -- you're here to preview the numbers and what investors should be watching 275. do we care about anything else that might be in the report. wages? hours? participation? >> i was at this event last night, this conservation event and people are like, steve, good to see you what's the number tomorrow what number do you got >> what is the number? >> joe, i'm going to -- >> you're right. i'm sorry. >> i don't really have the number here's the thing, markets are hoping that the payroll report shows some moderation. that would help ease inflation concerns and maybe begin a process where the fed can begin to think about, beginning to think about easing off on rate hikes. nonfarm payroll, 275 i don't have a lot of thinking about -- is it higher or lower

it was 315 in august a bit higher than expected unemployment expected to remain unchanged. a strong number, not necessarily bad. if it comes in with an influx of workers to the workforce, that's the participation we were talking about. the danger, strong payroll gains without the gains in participation. the three-month average of job growth, it slowed this year from north of half a million to 378 now, but it's still above the normal run rate of 100 to 200,000. probably some back phifilling. despite negative gdp growth in the first half of the year, somewhat anomalous there market expectations for the fed ratcheted up again with the year-end rate at 433 461 in april these are among the higher level that is we've seen

payroll number by itself cannot reset inflation or fed expectations officials say -- and they said it several times yesterday, going to take a series of monthly declines in prices for them to stop hiking, but moderation and payrolls today, maybe we can begin to think about the process of beginning to not raise rates. >> if you don't get that, the beginning of the beginning of the beginning, then it's further out than we thought and that could be bad news for equities maybe the most important numbers are going to be average hourly earnings and participation that's going to show us whether inflation is continuing to push itself higher in wages and whether people are getting forced to the point of will it come back to the market. >> i think that's right. some guys have said the stock market being down could bring people back in we did that workforce survey in june we did not find a lot of people who said they retired because stocks were high

i don't know how big that cadre of people are. >> i think we all kind of felt that way, though >> i was planning my retirement based upon a variety of things in my portfolio. but that's sort of -- joe, will never retire -- >> i'm retiring on a slab, my friend see me being carried out if ever i'm feeling pretty darn good and i had a physical this week. >> you look great. >> physical -- she said 45, max. >> 45 what >> 45, what's that -- >> internal age? >> my blood pressure, all that stuff. >> that's great. >> got a nice prostate too, apparently. meantime -- >> good to have that information -- >> i'm so glad i came into the office this morning. >> you're thinking, you know, work from office -- >> i thought it was an added value coming into the office let's get a look at the

premarket movers. >> clearly tmi is part of our t.o. credit suisse back in the news this morning shares up more than 6.5% right now. the bank planning to buy back up to $3 billion in debt and it's planning a sale of a hotel in zurich shares of cvs moving lower this morning right now they're down right now almost 5% this is after the largest health health insurance plan for medicare recipients received a low performance rating that plan with 1.9 million members is no longer eligible for bonus payments from the government and that could impact earnings and cannabis stocks on the move in the green right now. they've been up and down off their highs. up fractionally in the premarket right now. this is on the news that president biden will pardon all federal cannabis offense and is

he plans to have the attorney general review the status of cannabis under federal law where it's classified at the same level of heroin. these stocks tend to move on enthusiasm the u.s.-focused msos up more than 40% coming up later on closing bell, the ceo of tilray will discuss his earnings as well as the new move by the biden administration. >> thank you for that. when we come back, we're going to dive into where investors should be putting money to work and what today's job reports number could mean for the fed's next move and maybe for your move. we're going to talk about this story, hackers attacking a bridge between blockchains at finance. the situation is contained the ceo of binance will be joining us a little later this

hour to break it all down. "squawk box" will be coming right back blackrock silver is advancing one of the highest-grade undeveloped silver projects in the world, in the "silver state" of nevada. with a maiden resource estimate just announced, the focus now is on further expansion. blackrock silver.

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♪ welcome back to "squawk box. the latest on elon musk's deal on twitter he has until october 28th to close his acquisition of twitter if he wants to avoid a trial he asked twitter to end all litigation in order to close the deal twitter refused calling the

proposal an invitation to further -- for further mischief and delay. we're going to debate elon musk's twitter ambitions and what it means for free speech. i don't know if we can show the chart there. interestingly, it's come down a bit and so we were talking earlier about what happens next and whether twitter -- whether this deal happens -- happens or happens at all the stock was much higher. it's now come down sort of an interesting read, the markets taking on this part of it is a timing issue but i think at some level built into that is the risk that, you know, there really isn't a deal here. >> that's trading more than 10% below the deal price at this point. >> so, you know, that goes back to why i think the financing piece -- even though i think the banks are going to want to stay there or think they're going to want to stay there, the question is, is musk going to push them in some way. the judge could push them back but there's something --

>> but it's not as simple as it sounded on monday when musk's lawyers said -- >> it's not as simple as monday and it's not as simple as yesterday either. >> right the latest read of unemployment is hitting us at 8:30 a.m. this morning the futures ahead of that have been mixed and kind of waiting around to see what happens dow futures are indicated up by 75 s&p futures are positive by two points nasdaq is down by about 29 joining us right now is managing partner and portfolio manager at dcla and you are a thoughtful guy who thinks long-term about things. but this morning the market is going to be focused on this number that comes out. everybody is waiting to see what the jobs market looks like because the fed is the thing that's controlling everything. what do you do on a morning like this >> sit back and look at the data the fed has been very clear they're data-dependent

you're right, the market is going to react to this number. good news is bad news, bad news will be good news to the stock market i think this is all part of the information that we need to understand the data, what is the trajectory what is the second derivative? what are we looking at here, has the raising rates caused the economy to slow down that's what they want. if we see in the face of that, that we do see a -- prices in lumber, shipping, all of those are coming down, the job of the fed is being done. i don't think the fed is going to stop. this is just the little stage -- the fifth, sixth inning and they've been pretty determined that they're going to stay the course >> so let'splay this out on a longer term. if you're talking about the economy still being pretty good right now, the jobs market being very strong right now and markets coming down so significantly, is this a time where you look at this for the

long term as being attractive prices or do you worry about the potential recession to come? >> i think it's a combination -- we're heading into earning season next monday, the banks start reporting. we're going to get information on bank quality, et cetera if you're invested, stay invested there's no reason to get out now because timing this is very hard to do. but what you can do a couple things, if you have cash on the side or recycling capital, i'm looking for fallen ang angels, great long-term vision, but maybe in the next couple quarters they're going to be a little soft. and on the other hand, there are companies like a paypal or uber that have been really hurt, paypal, for example, everything was pulled in, i think that's a good one to add now or even through earnings season or uber. very good earnings, deere is doing well

you can still buy some high-quality companies but you can look for the fallen angels as we go through earning season. >> you mentioned the financials starting earning season next week would you be a buyer of the financials here. the thought of a recession coming would say, no, stay away from it. generally, though when you're looking at higher interest rates, you would buy these names. >> it's a cross current. we're overweight financials, we have been for awhile jp morgan, some of the high-quality banks, they're trading at high single digits, 10, 11 times earnings. what happened was you had the credit suisse thing, are we going through another kind of reshuffling like we did in 2008 or 2009, i still like those. i think what you've got is depressed earning because m&a activity is slowed and the market is saying, hey, we think your credit quality is going to deteriorate.

as an investor, that's some of the things you look at and say things are bad, these companies are doing well huge amounts of capital. and the companies talk about how big they are so i like them on weakness, i would buy more. but i think given -- they're going to make a lot of money on -- activity starts picking up in the next couple of corners, none of that is baked into earnings there's no catalyst and it's been ugly and we've been -- it hurts the xlf which is the etf for all the financials has been down pretty much every day >> if that's your theory that you do like, you must think that if there is a recession coming it's not going to be too deep. and market turmoil is not going to wind up in a situation where everything gets broken either because that's where all bets are off. >> we do get a recession one of the reasons the fed is doing this, they want to slow things down and they can recalibrate and sometimes things get too far on the other side.

if you have well capitalized banks, and we think there are, it's different from 2007, these are the opportunity for some of these banks to actually do well in china diversify their businesses, really look to kind of where they're going to make them you look at morgan stanley, 60% of their business is wealth management they don't have as much exposure that's where some of the opportunity is going to lie. >> thank you we'll talk to you again soon. coming up, elon musk's deal to buy twitter sparking fresh debate over what the billionaire will do with the service if he does eventually own it as we head to break, here's a look at this morning's winners and losers in the s&p 500. "squawk box" will be right back. >> announcer: time now for today's aflac trivia question. microsoft launched expedia.com in 1994. atear wh ywas the travel site

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in 1994. what year was the travel site spun off as a public company the answer, 1999 expedia founder richard barton was the company's ceo until 2003 still to come, what will elon musk do with twitter. is there a chance they're turning it into a superapp we're going to debate all of it. $500 million worth of binance's coins stolen the next hour, the number of the month, the jobs report, the market, reacti, atonwh are markets going to do, it's all coming up, "squawk box" right after this

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welcome back, everybody. the futures this morning are basically on hold as we wait and see what happens with the jobs report dow futures are up by 52 points. s&p 500 futures down by a point. everybody waiting for the number that comes in just over a

half-hour's time to get a look at what happened with the government's jobs report. let's take a look at the ten-year note. right now the yield is 3.843%. it's ticked up a little bit on the yields and we do have some breaking news just out from bank of america. bank of america says that it has settled lawsuits filed against it by the municipal bond insurer. that news is coming from an s.e.c. filing. the bank of america says that in order to resolve all those pending and back lawsuits against the corporation, they're agreeing to pay the company $1.84 billion. they had been seeking about $3 billion a little more than that, actually, and this is litigation that goes all the way back to the financial crisis in 2008 bank of america, of course, bought country wide. it was litigation taken against country wide and everybody who took part in country wide after the fact bank of america says that it has

reserved for this quite awhile ago. it's interesting that you're still dealing with the aftereffects of the last financial crisis back in 2008. >> wow stahares of twitter on the move again a judge ruling that elon musk had until october 28th to complete that deal if he wanted to avoid a trial musk asked that twitter end all litigation in order to close the deal, but twitter opposed that motion another concern, what will twitter look like under musk given he's a free speech absolutist others say, there's a way to make sure it isn't, joining us right now for a thoughtful discussion on this issue is ceo and national director of the anti-defamation league and -- i

mispronounced your name, i apology. the chairman of strive asset management i'm curious, jonathan, if we could start with you, first of all, everyone -- there seems to be a sense that the midterms are coming, is there any chance this deal even happens before then and somehow it impacts them? >> well, look, i think that we'll see -- we know the wheels of government certainly don't turn quickly and so the s.e.c. jumping in makes it a little bit more complicated. but i'm hopeful that it will go through. i mean, look, as we've talked about before, elon musk is an amazing entrepreneur, an extraordinary innovator, he's the henry ford of our time he's taken huge tasks and solved them and to think what he can do with the public square.

i certainly have qualms about just a handful of companies controlling so much of the public deniable. but i'm hopeful the regulators will give this a chance. i'm hopeful he'll apply his penchant for innovation to this company. there's a lot of room for growth the question we should talk about this morning, is twitter going to be the next tiktok or the next truth social. is it going to be good for the country and for the community and for debate, or is it going to be gab, a cesspool of bigotry and harassment >> first of all, i don't know, some people don't think tiktok or truth social is great for the country. do you think there's a way to do this . >> look, i think there is a way to do this one of the things that he could do here is give the choice back to the user. the problem is, many users don't want to see a lot of the content

that maybe constitutionally protected but still shows up online other users don't want a central arbiter telling them what they can and can't see on the internet i think there's an opportunity to decentralize power back to the user and i think that as elon has talked more recently about turning twitter into a superapp, an app for everything, not just for exchanging ideas, i think that reinforces the importance of his vision of making this a true free speech platform, a platform that replicates the -- centralized determinations of truth simply do not work if we look at the number of posts that social media companies like twitter and facebook and youtube took down as misinformation that were later vindicated, even criticisms of remote schooling policies or covid lockdown policies that look pretty good in retrospect as point of views of view, we would have gotten to those answers sooner if we

hadn't censored them. >> how concerned are you that given elon's other business interests and think about tesla and the amount of business they're doing in china, for example, given the spacex business and its connections to so many different parts of the world, that, in fact, he will either censor or you won't know but will have his own views about how -- about certain types of free speech and may get pressure about those kinds of free speech. >> so, look, i have concerns today as the platform exists twitter took down the accounts of chinese activists ahead of the 30th anniversary of tinman square i even have concerns here in the united states and i've written about this where the government has pressured officials at

twitter to take down posts and accounts of critics of the u.s. government i don't like a centralized determinative truth pressuring private companies to adopt their interest -- >> is he more susceptible insofar he will not just have twitter, but will have other businesses and business interests in play? >> again, i don't think it's unique to elon musk. i think that any owners of the companies, you have concentrated owners of public companies that have diverse interests around the world, even the top shareholders of most public companies have conflicting business interests in other parts of the world twitter is used by government as a tool to censor what government couldn't directly. do i think it's a legitimate question to ask on your part, absolutely do i think that is unique to elon musk and i think there's application of fear to this one man because many of the people who harbor those concerns may

not agree with his views on operating this as a free speech platform -- >> you know the reason why i asked the question you've been critical of other companies who have interests in china or other things and what i was trying to do was draw the distinction which is, in fact, i would argue to you, they're all the same which is maybe what you're saying. >> that's what i'm saying. it's an equally legitimate concern. if we apply that standard equally, we would be scrutinizing the business interests that other shareholders have of other companies, even twitter as it stands today. >> how concerned are you on the score that there's not just the free speech issue, but the pressures that are being brought to bear or could be brought to bear by others >> look, i actually disagree slightly here. i don't think twitter has a problem with freedom of expression i think it has a problem with the freedom of incitement.

look at the hypocrisy right now around twitter usage of iran twitter is shutting down the tweets of the citizen journalists who are bringing us vital information about what's happening on the streets of iran while they allow the supreme leaders account up while he calls to annihilate the state of israel we see it because we monitor extremists they love twitter. 1 out of 4 users on twitter reports being harassed and our analysis found that when we reported anti-semitic information about tweets on twitter, only 5% of them were taken down so i think the problem is rampant harassment on the platform and when the platform is so vital to the public conversation, we should ask, why current management doesn't apply a scintilla of information to improving the discourse and i'm

hopeful -- >> what does that look like, jonathan >> not necessarily because -- >> what does that look like and who are the arbiters >> look, i think one of the interesting ideas that's been proffered by elon is his note of opening up the algorithm, empowering users to choose but that will require twitter prioritizing innovation here, andrew, prioritizing it so that users are okay on the platform without fear of being harassed, persecuted or victimized because of their views or identities none of that should be acceptable. >> can we level set from one piece of it. everybody says theoretically, we all want choice. we just press the buttons, we'll set it up how we want and we'll do it this way it's not how it happens in practice everybody says that's what they want and then they take the default setting. that's what happens. and then if you have the default setting, in fact, you get -- your feed shows all the stuff

that maybe you don't want and then you have whatever that pain is that you -- and then you either have to go in and do it or you get off the service that's what happens in reality, no >> yeah, look, product design would solve this problem when i was developing front-end web products, you could empower the users so they could choose, decide their format, decide their settings it will require twitter and elon, maybe not to prioritize just user growth, but to prioritize user safety, but that seems like a smart thing in the long run not just for the twitter community, but for the country i hope he'll prioritize that >> you're so right about that. that is crazy, iran. i just -- is it possible that with elon -- with elon's expertise, isn't there an ai solution to having a twitter sort of oversight exactly what

you're looking for, jonathan couldn't he be the guy who could somehow come up with it? >> look, i think he could. joe, as i said, he's reinvented entire industries in ways no one thought possible if he's willing to apply the investment in innovation, amazing things could happen on the platform but that requires him to prioritize, again, user safety as much as it does, you know, user growth. twitter has been floundering for years. the platform has struggled mightily i think apart because users are frustrated i hope he can solve that problem. >> would you be okay with that what's the pure libertarian take on absolute, you know, first amendment rights you admit that it's guardrails, maybe? you don't want the freedom fighters off, do you >> i opposed centralized determinations of truth on what

counts as misinformation or hate speech is there room for innovation here, absolutely but i don't want to conflate that with the philosophical question is there hate speech and misinformation online, yes but the answer to bad speech is not less speech, it is more speech that is the american way and i think that this isn't just a liberal arts luxury. i think that the free exchange of all ideas is a precondition for democracy, science and the pursuit of truth itself. i think technology can aid us in getting to the solutions that means that if i don't want to see all of that hateful content or alleged misinformation online, i should still have the choice to make a user specific filter to say i don't have to say that we try to adjudicate that centrally when the users who don't want to see it are the ones who don't see it. even the user who did want to be exposed to those dirty points of

view, they shouldn't be stopped centrally from being able to do so and this is an important point, i think it's been missed in the debate this is not just a violation of the first amendment. i think it's a violation of the letter of the first amendment, the letter of the law. what you're starting to see in regions around the world, including the united states, is that the governments around the world are starting to use twitter to take down content through the back door that they could not censor through the front door under the first amendment. to say a platform like twitter is not going to engage in viewpoint-based discrimination at all, that then allows us to re-empower the users to decide what kinds of hateful content they do or don't want to see once we set those rules of the road, ai can be a tool in helping us get there but ai isn't a substitute at arriving at the philosophy in the first place --

>> do you agree with that -- i think there's certain types of speech that you don't think should be in the public square >> harassment, threats shouldn't be there are things that i think twitter should do. i would argue that twitter is, indeed, a publisher. i believe it is a publisher just like cnbc, just like "the wall street journal," just like many other companies. >> but you don't believe in this public square idea that vivek is talking about. we make choices every single day. >> i could choose to read "the wall street journal" or the "new york times." that's up to me. what twitter lacks -- what twitter lacks, andrew, is, number one, transparency we can't see the algorithms. they shape our views that's a problem that it needs to deal with number two, if people harass you on the platform, the company should be liable for that. like every other consumer product in america today, the

loophole of section 230, i think, needs to be closed. and then, you know, again, finally, i hope the company will apply the innovation that we need to see to improve discourse to benefit everyone. regardless of your identity, viewpoint or any other factor. >> business question for you, everybody talks about if we had the algorithm and we could all see what was happening and all these things, do you think it would change usage of the platform look, i use it all the time, there's other people who don't use it all the time. do you think it would change the number of hours that you would use this service because you know what's happening behind the scenes >> it's a great question i think it may not actually change usage by that much which might make this low-hanging fruit to address the philosophical question if the default setting is most people opt into the settings and filters, great, at least they have the choice, which removes us from this debate about whether or not twitter is serving as a central arbiter of truth. even if it's a minority of

people, at least we've quelled the philosophical question one of the things i discovered, we agree on much more than i expected i'm a section 230 skeptic and there's a lot of content that isn't allowed. incitements to violence are not protected speech but my view is a test f is, if it's protected in the first amendment, it should be protected. that will get us to a healthier place rather than putting an orwellian ministry of truth in deciding as what counts as misinformation and hate speech i think it's the better approach. >> final question for both of you. if elon musk allowed you -- or asked you to put up a little bit of equity, you go in with him on this, would you want to? >> i'll -- >> go ahead. >> look, elon succeeds again and again and again and again.

i care about my portfolio, my kid's college education. i would go in and give it a shot. >> by the way, before i go, and we'll go to vivek for a final answer on that, you think that trump will go back on the platform and should go back on the platform >> that's a harder question. it sounds like he might let him in i don't think he should be there. he violated the rules of the service. you violate the rules, you should lose your privilege, plain and simple. >> vivek, you want to take that one on too >> yeah, i'll take both of them on i would go in on the deal because i think there's an economic opportunity where there's over 100 million americans who are badly disaffected from information companies who are put off by political censorship and i think he can create a competitive advantage for twitter for the americans who happen to be some of the best customer that a

company could wish for i think it's an economic opportunity that pairs with cultural frustration with 70 to 100 million americans in this country, many of whom did vote for the other candidate who lost the last presidential election, president trump. do you think he should be restored on the platform if it's being operated as a free speech platform, absolutely i think it's a cut and dry case to say whether or not you agree or disagree -- you have a political actor in this country -- >> there are people who would argue that he incited violence and we just had a conversation about your view that folks who incite violence should not have their -- that's not free speech, where do you -- where do you put that >> well, i think -- double click on the assumption that you made there in that question let's adjudicate through that through the courts we have juris prudence in this country. and scores would tell you is that that does not rise to the level of incitement to violence as defined under the first

amendment. it might under jack dorsey's judgment, but not under the first amendment. if twitter is going to operate as a free speech platform, it needs to apply the standards of the first amendment. i think it's going to be unifying joe biden said he liked that decision and bringing all americans together on whether or not they agree or disagree >> appreciate it for the debates. >> thank you coming up, the ceo of binance will join us to talk about the company's crypto hack. $500 million of its bnb token stolen check out the futures ahead of today's jobs report which is 45 minutes away. getting closer and closer to the flat line for all of these dow futures up by 38 points. s&p futures down by 2 1/2. the nasdaq off by 42 "squawk box" will be right back. that's it. to maximize profitability. morning.

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overnight, over $500 million of binance coins were stolen. the company says the blockchain itself is now safe and we're going to talk to him about that next check out crypto prices this morning, there's been 2 billion hacks fromhe tse cross chain linkages which is really where it happens we're going to talk to him about that and how to bolster and protect things we'll be right back. it feels tow you have a wealth plan that covers everything that's important to you. this is what it's like to have a dedicated fidelity advisor looking at your full financial picture. making sure you have the right balance of risk and reward. and helping you plan for future generations. this is "the planning effect" from fidelity.

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binance, seeing a cross chain bridge linking with its bnb chain was targeted to enable hackers to withdraw about $570 million at current prices joining us no is chang peng zhou the binance ceo. the hack comes as binance launched a new program aimed at training law enforcement and prosecutors to fight against cyber crimers. cz, it is good to see you. what we've seen hacked and this was a half a billion, $2 billion total. it is when cristo is moving from one chain, one block chain to another. is that when it happens in a cross chain bridge what needs to be done? >> yes so that is what happens for a cross chain bridge and what has to be done, i think in the industry, i think we just got to learn how to learn from this kind of mistakes and make

our code more secure but a soft care code is never bug free you could reresult in large losses and this is what happened but we were able to limit the damage less than $100 million now. >> and we think of the block chain almost fortress like and that is why with confidence you're able to say that everything else is safe in terms of the actual network, the bnb network itself has not -- has never been hacked. >> yes in this case the bnb block klain itself has not been hacked this is the cross chain that sits between would block chains to allow users to change from one token to another as you've said, we've seen many of this type of exploits in the industry this year and last year. but every bridge is a little bit different. so there are still now exploits

that have been found but the block chain itself has no problems. >> and how often, in the course of the business, in your bnb the coin is being used in a lot of different ways now how often is a cross chain bridge necessary in the normal course of binance doing business >> i think it is used almost -- every day by people. so people do have the need to cover from one block chain to another for various reasons. so the cross chain bridge is open source smart contract that justs citsits on the block chain. in this case it happened. >> bnb, what your market cap, must be $45, and $50 billion but that is a half a billion dollars. so this is something that obviously some remedies are called for who would provide you with that?

can you do it yourself, the code >> so, the software developers, the code is written by a group of software developers for the block chain which is what we call the core developers and the notes that attend this network, there is like 26 or 44 nodes depending on what you count and then you devote to do the upgrade themselves so they collect and maintain the network and when there is a new software version, they will vote for it and last night, a couple of emergency upgrades that was done and i think over the next couple of days there will be a few more upgrades to be done and there is also a few more votes regarding how the hacked funds will be handled will be voted by the community. >> cz, are they like a catch 22. is anonymity for a lot of

crypto how you could bring in law enforcement and prosecutors and give them the tools to be effective in guarding against something like this and then at the same time maintain the anonymity that some people find so attractive. how do you walk that line? >> to be honest, block chain is a pseudo anonymous meaning we could see all of the transactions on the block chain. and all of the firms that specialize in analyzing this data and they're quite good. and also with large centralized exchanges we could correlate quite a number of addressed spaces with certain information linkages, et cetera. so when you combine those kind of information together, you could triangulate what or who likely are holding which cryptocurrencies, et cetera. and for law enforcement, if you track through this large amounts of information, you could trace it through so in most cases so it is not 100% guaranteed.

it is not completely anonymous, but it is also -- it is also not 100% traceable but could be traceable to a fairly large degree. >> how bullish are you on bnb and obviously it is kind of a question that i expect you to be very positive about. but for people that don't know, go into the utilitarian uses for bnb and where you the market could be for this token in five years? >> so bnb has many utility values you could use it to pay for fees on the bnb block chain network you could use it to buy airplane tickets, buy food and raise money for your entrepreneur projects and sell nfts or a buy nfts so all of the use cases are there. i'm a big believer in bnb. and i spent most of my time working in this eco-system and we could see that even with the

hacks that happen overnight, the bnb price dropped less than 5% so that shows that the confidence of community, the host bnb are extremely strong. so, i am very confident in the ability of the development, of the developers in the community and the holders in the community. i think this is an unfortunate event that happened, but we could learn from it instead of kill us. i think that is not going to happen. >> and finally, smart people say when the fed is raising rates, i want to own any crypto do you think that accounts for winter of discontent, if you will, that woe've seen across al classes of cryptocurrency and i guess bnb as well. do you expect that to thaw and then back on -- nfts will be back and people will be using bnb to buy in nfts and back whe we were years ago.

>> i think it is complex interest rates matter, it is very important but at the same time we look at how much money has been printed in the last couple of years and where do they go and what are the other factors. covid, what was the impact of that business being locked down and now travel is reabled again. and more fundamentally what are the use cases between -- the innovations in the stock market versus what are theino valgss in the crypto marks so there are many factors. but i do think it is significant impact but crypto itself has a lot more utility vial than that. >> where do we stand on outsiding bnbs there is not 200 billion you don't burn your own. who do you pick to burn when you're getting rid of the some of the tokens. how -- when are are you going to burn some more >> we actually, in the bnb

foundation have coins that were reverved from the early days those reserves and this fees that are being charged on the network, a part tv will be as well and out of the 2 million bnb that was hacked yesterday, immediately 80% of that were frozen so those were not circulated out. and there was a little bit that was circulated out and we're using law enforcement means to try to -- >> what is the total now where do we stand right now? >> i think the total now is about 92 million, $93 million equivalent that is still out there and we're seeing small pockets of that being frozen as we speak. >> very good cz, thank you. good luck. >> thank you. >> if you call me i'll write a little code for you and toughen things up a little bit, if you want call me. probably not i'm not the guy. >> when we come back, we're

gearing up for the september jobs report. and the data and what it could mean for your money. stick around "squawk box" will be right back.

good morning, it is jobs friday the big number is now just 30 minutes away we're going to get you ready for it and then break it down the minute it hits and futures are quiet ahead of the data but that could easily change in this environment a good jobs number might be bad for equities and vice versa. plus cryptocurrency giant binance hacked to the tune of $500 million we just spoke with the ceo and we'll tell you what he said. final hour of "squawk box" beginning right now.

♪ good morning and welcome back to squ"squawk box" here lie from the nasdaq market site in times square how about yesterday. i'm joe kernan with becky quick and after the rain everything gets out in the air and the sun coxs out and it is 77 degrees how is the day looking and then we decided earlier when the dow was up 14 and the nasdaq was down 50, i will trade you. i will take the nasdaq up and the dow down it is much more important that the nasdaq -- the dow doesn't help when the nasdaq is down 50, that is the risk off rearing its head and bitcoin goes below 20,000. let's look at u.s. equity futures. none of this matters until 8:30.

i would rather have, you know, the nasdaq but that doesn't help treasury yield this is morning, that is not the issue either, yet. but we'll see at 8:30. let's get to the overtime anchor mike santoli now i mean, i think about the barrens and all -- and it just -- it warmed my soul yesterday, mike santoli. and i thought that he were amazing. >> well, i appreciate it i'll fill in wherever there is an opening and you'll see me again at 4:00 today. >> really? i'm glad i set my dvr. >> there you go. and take a look at where we're set up market wise idling ahead of the jobs number. we've given back about a quarter of a two-day rally not much of it market clicked down to the mine us 25% level from the peak that is where the lows were just under 3600 have regained a little bit

so everyone has been scrutinizing the mechanics of that bounce. was it strong enough to say it was divisive not easy to say. but we do have a little bit of embedded expectation for what the market thinks it is looking for from the jobs number, which is maybe some softness in the labor market or at least a higher participation maybe the unemployment rate could lift in a not so painful way. two-year note yield, that is where all of the focal fears of what the fed is going to do and inflation. so this is year-to-date. it got some relief that helped the equity market rally a little bit. but i do think it is relevant, if you look at these spikes, it was around the cpi report in early june was one of them in august, you got a spike there or anticipating the jackson hole speech of jay powell and then again with the september cpi report in october.

and the market is really fixated on the inflation stuff and the jobs number is in put to the overall inflation and it matters today given where the market field position has been now in terms of rate sensitive areas, it is a push-pull take a look at real estate sector now it is reits and yes there is a lot of commercial buildings in there but there is also cell towers and data storage reits are huge for this group. and so they held up a lot better than home builders for the year but they've been weak recently it is not just about the absolute level of rates. these were expensive on a valuation basis and real estate having a little bit of a struggle as real yields do climb solidly positive here. so that is one of those dynamics and then you see home builders trading above their lows we'll see if that sktick.

>> this is lagging and always lagging, but i don't know where they get that change in the second derivative on the economy and inflation. one of days it is coming and then i don't know what to tell you about the 3200 forecast for the s&p. still not convinced. if it was so obvious that is what we're doing, then it wouldn't be -- it wouldn't be the stock market. >> absolutely. absolutely and i do think you have this prevailing view out there, that confidence that the low is in. which may be slightly comforting. >> could be. but we still haven't had that outsized spike in the vix. other people say things are never different. mike, thank you. see you at 4:00. well before then we are awaiting the big number at 8:30 and what impact it will have on fed policy but there is also a critical issue over central bank policy steve liesman is back at the table with us.

about the debate over whether the feds rate hikes will break something in financial markets do we think that i know they have made these comments. >> it comes directly from the conversation we were just having i'll put it this way, is volatility the same thing at financial instability. so with markets in the economy enduring the most aggressive rate hikes, their voicing the fed that the fed has gone too far and break something in financial markets. that is what scott from guggenheim said yesterday on cnbc's "overtime". >> the environment is ripe for a crisis and if the fed keeps hawkish communication up i think that we're quite likely to end up having something break in the financial markets. >> pointing to recent poly reversal of the bank of england

to buy bonds again he pointed to various illiquid markets and he said a event could lead to fed rate hikes but in a speech yesterday, he said i've read some speculation that financial stability concerns could possibly be the fomc or halt them earlier than expected let me be clear, this is not something i am considering or a likely development markets are orderly and functioning well and banks are well capitalized and the fed has tools to address financial stability other than through changing monetary policy i spoke with two sources yesterday who are managing billions and trillions they do see some illiquidity at certain terms and credit levels but they're able to get deals done in bulk sometimes they have to go to smaller trades so i said to them, if the financial crisis and march 2020

were ten on the richter scale of financial melt downs what is today? they said five or six. >> a jump. >> you can't prove somebody wrong who makes a dire prediction about the future and you look at the markets today and you just don't see that level. >> and you could make them -- predictions like that again and again in your career, they never have come true in the past, usually. not specifically about this guy. and they're always popular if it bleeds, it leads -- >> and i didn't think it was that fprofound i think since we've got the news about the bank we've said is there something else that we need to be considering on a scale. is there something under the surface that we don't know about and there is a lot of derivatives out there. what is the total number of

derivatives. >> the end of the world happens only once. it is a trade that you have to time carefully and one of my favorite quotes of all time are -- hart has a bunc of them. >> i didn't even know what as tie blot was. >> there was cypress. >> what was the blank of england. it was the insurance or the pensions. >> it was a derivative held by the pension fund. >> where the fear is they would have to dump, they did have to it is back you have to be careful and watch things, they are moving quickly. but don't mistake volatility for financial instability. those are two separate things. >> right and you could be bearish forever and people will have you on and if you're wrong once but then -- >> they want to declare the lehman moment again and i think we need to be careful talking about this. >> but then the flip side is

then when neurobeanie or -- >> oh, my god. >> this is the point the point is if you remember for years and years and years, we've heralded certain people for calling the crisis right but that is what create this is sort of incentive system. >> not neuro just had some good parties >> the people who are out there saying these things and that is why -- >> doomsday becomes an industry. >> doomsday is an industry just saying. >> meredith witneshitney at least she's gone. >> we've all been around too long. >> when we come back, the number of the morning we'll bring you the september jobs report and talk about what it could mean for the fed's next interest rate decision come up in 17 minutes. and kyle bass, but next though

would the biden administration ease sanctions on venezuela to 'rgolong oil fwi wee ing to talk about that next

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the head of cryptocurrency exchange binance said his team has been able to minimize quite a bit of the damage following an intrusion in which hackers initially stole more than $500 million worth of bnb token. binance ceo cz joined us on the show minutes ago. >> in the industry, we have to learn how to learn from this kind of mistake and make our code more secure but the software code is never bug free so but in the block chain world, whenever there is a bug, you could be result in large losses but we were able to minimize a lot of damage to less than $100 million now. >> originally it was like $572 million and he said as of this point it was closer to 92 or $93 million that was still missing. they're still working on it. we're been keeping a close eye on the major cryptocurrencies. bitcoin is trading around 20,000 we've seen it just above 20,000

and just below 19,000, 991. >> and crude oil up 10%. and a big catalyst, a 2 million barrel per day cut and the biden administration looking at easing sanctions on venezuela in an effort to get that going and joining us, cnbc contributor. >> we're not talking about a wholesale lifts of sanctions on v venezuela. and we're talking about one device, whether or not they allow chevron to do more than what they do right now which is maintain some fields that they have there if that were to happen you get immediately another 50,000 barrels on the international market of 100 million barrels so it isn't very much maybe 100,000 to 300,000 depending on how much money they invest but it is done in exchange for

maduro agreed to sit down with the opposition for free and fair elections and to not push them into the arms of the russian and get them out of the western hemisphere. >> how much are you in the camp of opec, saudi is in bed with russia, and snubbing their nose at biden, it is ahead of the midterms, it is all part of some kind of political view of trying to change the dynamic. i mean, do you believe that? >> oh, i think absolutely that this was absolutely meant to be a message to president biden from saudi arabia and b.s. i don't very any doubt about that. >> and the message being >> you don't treat us very well. you should treat us better >> but not a message i want trump in office versus biden that is what is out there in the ether. >> right i think this week about something on going for months

ever since russia invaded ukraine, that is when we sent three administration officials down to venezuela including a member of the national security council in order to start talking with maduro. this is all about making sure that we have other supplies in our national interest to make sure we have other supplies coming down the road that we've learned a lesson here about increasing the number of barrels on the market. and at same time, we have russia in venezuela let's get them out there. >> we have aimos oxteen and his take was this was premature and did not deny they've been having conversations about this. >> it is public. chevron has been asking for this for years. and so all of the statements that you heard yesterday were always conditional, right. we have to have something out the maduro regime. they have to agree to sit down and negotiate about free and fair elections and so that is the bottom line that is what we're waiting to

see. now, if this license does get approved you ask will other licenses get approved. francisco men auldy, the best analysts on oil out of venezuela said if venezuela were texas, they would beproducing 10 million barrels of oil per day in the early 90s they have had 6.4 and then hugo chavez came to power and said why we would add more oil to the market that only depressed the price. >> could i go back to the saudi/russia situation there is a message from saudi to the u.s., and do they want from exchange, and they will not get. >> the leverage that we're a huge buyer look at all of the threats that are happening coming out of congress about the opec charging them under the sherman anti-trust. >> does that change as a result of this for the good to them. >> you're talking about does

this change as a result of venezuela? >> no. i'm talking saudi. >> i can't get into the mind of mbs and what is going on opec is driven by what saudi arabia wants. >> i'm trying to understand what saudi wants and what they think they could get by doing this if in fact you think this is a political maneuver. >> look, historically saudi arabia has been a strong ally of the united states. and i think they want to be treated as such as they have been historically. verbiage from the administration, et cetera, matching what they have grown accustomed to over time. >> and do you think that this gets them that because i think it might get them the opposite? >> you mean venezuela? >> yes venezuela is a member of opec. so, i think the interest of the united states right now is how do we think about long-term national security, in terms of oil supplies and why would we want the russians and the iranians in venezuela. >> joe, thank you. >> nice to see you

>> coming up, the september jobs report now just a few minutes away. and make sure to join us on monday for a special interview with market legendau pl tudor jones. stay tuned much more "squawk box" ahead

coming up. september jobs due out to minutes. and our panel standing by to dissect the data and tell you what it means for the economy, the markets and what the fed is g do about it all and your money stay tuned coming right back. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ introducing ihg one rewards. seventeen hotel brands. six thousand global destinations. one loyalty program that lets you guest how you guest. it seems like things are falling apart lately.

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folks, we're just afy minutes away from the government's september employment report. here is our jobs panel this morning. jason ferman who was the chairman of economic advisers under president obama. and tyler goodspeed was the activitying chairman under president trump, now a hoover institution fellow sara is from new veen. and angela is from dem moss and steve liesman and rick santoli are here i want to get all of you and get a number and make sure we do it before we get to it. jason, what is the number you're looking for. >> 250 but i don't think this number matters it is one report before the next meeting. >> tyler, how about you? >> 275 ip just think that they could

see that it hasn't come down enough to see a substantial slowdown beyond that. >> sara? >> 225,000 due to mixed economic data and watching closely for labor force participation and moderating wage inflation. >> that is a key angela what, are you looking for? >> i'm expecting about 250 and i think we'll start to see some strong growth continue but still moderating as a result of the fed actions. >> rick, before we had you start looking out for the numbers. what are you expecting ahead of it >> 207,000 >> got it. so you're on the low end so far. >> well, i didn't know that prior but it seems that is the case. >> i didn't write it down but i'm at 210, right where rick is. >> it is not just the number this time. there is a lot of other components participation rate and the wage and what has happened with it. >> and all of the weighing on

fed policy they want to see slowing down but they don't want to tee it collapse they like to see the number of job openings was falling so that is a good sign and also looking for perhaps some moderation in job growth while we do this transition coming from those industries that had a lot of hiring during the pandemic and those businesses have cooled off but still some places that were running below the pandemic in some sectors. >> as we saw the dow is up by about 90 points ahead of this. it is a mixed reaction and you could see the nasdaq was lower. s&p was right about in line with expectations and we've been watching what is happening on the yield curve. there is the nasdaq right now. down by about 22 but if you're watching the ten-year, ahead of this number, 3.841% so it is picking up a little bit. jason, i'll ask you very quickly, just in terms of not thinking that this matters the market thinks this matters very much.

>> look, i don't think this is going to matter very much for november it is going to matter for december but we're going to have other data by then, too. i think we need two low cpi reports in a low before november to do anything and the odds of two low cpi reports in a row are zero because we're only getting one report. >> rick santelli, take it away and let youus know what you see >> here we go. nonfund payrolls for the month of september on the big jobs report, 263,000. 263,000. now if we go back, this is fascinating because 263,000 is the low water mark going back to april when it was 263,000. 288,000 is private payrolls and the change in manufacturing payrolls it is about as expected a pretty robust 22,000

the unemployment rate or u-3 is 3.5% equally the july read which is the low water mark and in this case bad news, good news, bad news maybe you don't want to see unemployment rates moving lower. and if we look at what is going on with earnings, up .3% this makes two months in a row it is up .3% that is month over month year-over-year it is up over 5%. as expected a down grade from 5.2 which we've had the last three months and if we look at the workweek, 34.5 34.5 equals our last look. 34.9 actually is the number you want to comp to with regard to history. that is the higher water mark. and finally if we look at what is going on with u-6, the underemployment rate, that is 6.7. 6.7 and that equals the best level. we've had a couple of 6.7s in

june and july. labor force participation rate always a favorite but in this case it moved in the wrong direction. 62.4 in the rearview mirror and expectations take a tenth away moved to 62.3. 62.4 is the high water mark there. if we look at interest rates, well we are now up 5.5 basis points in what was unchanged from the 383 and two-year note yields have jumped up to 4.32 and they're up closer to 7 and of course, what is going on with regard to fed governor lisa cook said don't worry about global events. our mission is domestic. and agree with her but i think that the energy induced recession and the globe is looking at it will send feedback loops of wave after wave i think they'll get the fed's attention eventually panel and becky, back to you.

>> rick, stay right there. because we have a lot to chew there right now. you could see the futures on all of this turning a little weaker as rick was talking about that the unemployment rate below expectations and we're in a market where good news is bad news in this weird twisted way where we're waiting on anything to slow the market down is bad news the nasdaq is down by 141, the s&p down by 27 steve you've been digging through the numbers. what else jumps out at you >> it is not maybe quite as strong as it appears when i look through the numbers, i look down the column and look for negative or positive signs there were a bunch of industries that were negative in not a big way but there is a whole bunch of negatives the percentage of industries that have job growth the biggest chunk of this was private sector jobs. up 288 and education and health

services up 90 and leisure and hospitality up 83 so what is that? 170 of 280 there was a loss of jobs in local education. i think that might be a seasonal adjustment and government was negative 25. i don't think this is broad based strength what i'm seeing is a rebound in some sectors that are still by the way down going into this we were down 1.1, 1.2 million i don't think this changes the fed very much because there is a school of thinking, becky, that we could get into all of these numbers and go way down into the weeds. only thing that matters that really tells what you need to know about the job market is the unemployment rate and that ticked down and that may be what the fed looks at and said forget all of this other stuff, the job market is tight and tighter this month than last month. >> and jason you told us before that even if this number were stronger than anticipated and even if unemployment ticked up,

that is something not that changed the feds mind because they're looking at inflation not unemployment >> i certainly think that this comes in very close to where you expected a little bit hotter in terms of the nemployment rate if you want to glimmer of good news for inflation here, it is that at an annualized rate were only up 3.8% this past month their volatile from month to month. it is 4.4% rate over the last three months that is still, you know, at a rate like that, you're still talking about an inflation rate that is way above where the fed wants it to be but it is come down a little bit. we've been fooled by those data before we'll get the eci at the end of the month. that is a much more reliable measure of what is going on but maybe a tiny bit wage pressure than we might have thought but everything else in this report as expected were hotter

than expected. the fed will certainly stay the course after seeing this. >> and tyler, when we hear from people who are business leaders and private industry, who say that the fed is looking at outdated data. it is looking at numbers that don't keep up with things. is that at case? it doesn't show any weakness in the job market or weakness on issues that we might anticipate. are they getting the whole story or not. >> i don't think the fed is getting terribly outdated data in part because if you look at the most recent month for cpi and look at measures of core or underlying inflation and the sticky cpi, those are all showing an underlying inflation rate of 7% to 9% at an annualized rate. and when we look at this, yes the unemployment declined for not so great reasons in that those not in the labor force

increased by about 230,000 because jason said this is still a sign of a tight labor market a lot of labor market pressure maybe less in proceeding months but nothing to materially alter the fed's path. >> arngela, you've been vocal about this is not the time for the fed to slow things down. but this would indicate no matter what they're doing it is not, at least not yet. >> well i would argue that last rate tike that they did was just a couple of week asing and this takes time. and the other thing i would say is there is a big down side risk if the fed is too aggressive we know that marginalized communities and black and brown workers are the first fired and the last hired and so when we talking about potentially moving the country in a recession, we're talking about people who are hardest hit by inflation, paying the cost of driving inflation down by losing their jobs and so as i'm seeing the numbers

sh it is good we're not seeing a huge drop off right away but i think we should be cautious and thoughtful about the effects of the fed's actions because it will have the most impact on people who are already marginalized in the labor market. >> but with unemployment, the official unemployment rate of 3.5% it seems crazy to say that fed can't act. particularly when you look at inflation levels north of 8%. >> would you argue that fed has acted over the last several months and part of what i think the panelists have said is that we're still waiting to see the effects of that. i don't think we could take this jobs day alone as a sign of that action it is a good time to step back and wait and see and make sure we're not doing long-term damage to the market. >> steve. >> the black unemployment rate declined as well and we're at or near one of the lowest, not the lowest but one of the lowest deferentials between black and white unemployment which is really

interesting. which raises the question, i think the point that was made is right, people of color tend to be what was said before, they last in and first out. it is very hard. again, i've been waiting to say this is a recession. and it could have started any month. i don't think it start in the first quarter because those numbers on consumer and business spending were too high you flat lined a bit in the second quarter so i could have said it started then i'm just having a hard time saying this recession has begun with numbers like this and again, getting it at things like the black unemployment rates, those are things that start to spike not this time. there still seems to be pretty strong demand out there. >> let's continue this conversation in just a moment. but sayre yu, the market's reactions. as a market participant, what do you think? what should investors be doing >> i think that the concern with

this number is supply, which is not coming back and i don't think we're out of the woods yet. the market concern is q3 earnings and we're worried about higher input costs and the strength of the dollar and companies preannounce financials kick off next week and we think big banks are likely going to struggle and consensus earnings, we are expecting earnings to grow and we've seen some moderation but going into a recession it is unlikely to see them continue to grow sos that issue i don't think earnings reflect the true environment yet and that is why we think markets could struggle going forward. >> rick, do you want to talk more about what we're seeing play out not only in the eck witz futures but also in the treasury market right now? >> when i look at what is going on in interest rates and i look at these numbers, i think that the fed is going to get this one wrong as well. i think they're going to overtighten. but i don't think they'll going to stop tightening so it doesn't patter what i think. it only matters what the fed is going to do. and i think that steve and the

ub employment rate is going to continue to be an issue. so i look for equities to continue to go lower i've had a technical rare in s&ps and i'm not the only one that looks like to look at retracements, 32, 3300 jumps out at you does that mean you're not supposed to be a buyer the fed will tighten too far and global recession is energy based an that will effect the global economy it will not go away after one baseball season, okay. whether it is chevron trying to ramp up in venezuela which i still can't get my head around or the domestic energy industry, all of this is not going to get fixed overnight. and i still contend if you look at the temperature in europe on the thermometer, that there is going to be a correlation, as those things go down, so will markets. >> who wants to jump in and discuss that sara, you just mentioned that i

don't think you completely disagree with rick. >> i agree and i think that going forward, a lot ofheadwinds for the market next week we'll get cpi. we were happy to see signs of rents moderating but i don't think you'll see inflation drop fast enough to cause the fed to pivot. we still expect about 100 to 125 points of rate hikes for the year the fact that the market, the consensus expecting earnings growth going forward, i don't think we could continue to have that going into a recession which we likely will see next year so that could be the next shoe to drop. and then market evaluations are too high given that scenario. >> you could be forgiven for not reading governor waller's speech yesterday. it was a pretty interesting speech and it is what you just said and rick talked about waller said the fed will get inflation wrong in part because of the technical way that it gathered housing data. it is going to lag and sara just

talked about the idea that high frequency data on rents show it is coming down the fed won't see thisdata as part of cpi for eseveral months so waller said that you're going to have housing inflation continue well into next year he doesn't see it goes down despite what the high frequency dat data is telling us. >> and the other thing about the high frequency data, steve. >> i was going to say -- >> they aren't going to be seen for a while and that is the issue here which is why we likely go into a recession. because by the time the fed rate hikes finally impact the markets we'll be in a recession. a lot of the high frequency data will show thats in sense it is too late, i don't think the markets have priced that in correctly. but one issue is if you see a drop of inflation before we get to that recession, they will start to see the fed pivot but on the other hand if we hit a recession first and inflation is still high, i think that is

more problematic to the marks. >> tyler was that you? >> i was going to say, on the point of housing, i think there is a reason that the bls calculate owner equivalent rent. and it could be confuses because when you calculate the cost of the housing and including cost and the fed was going up as the fed ras raising interest rate. so that is why the labor of statistics count it the way they do and i think it is the right way. and even though it is a lagging indicator it does reflect rent people are paying. >> tyler i get that >> go back to the labor market, i think it is important to remember that real wages have been declining and if you look at the employment cost index that is about 6% below pre-pandemic trend on a real basis. and so that incentivized a lot

of labor hoarding on the part of employers. and we saw in the '73 to '75 recession. in the first year they added three kwerts of a million jobs because there was a big incentive to horde labor. >> this is the equivalent of a guy saying, there is a brick wall in front of us, my speedometer said i'm moving at 70 miles an hour but -- or 30 miles an hour but i know i'm moving faster than that. i'm going to ignore what i know to be true which is that i'm going to overshoot because the inflation data rather than the inflation reality will tell me a different story from what i know to be true. >> jason, your point quickly. >> we don't want to make the mistake we made last year of only looking at factors going one direction and not factors going the other direction. >> fair enough. >> you look at pce housing not part of pce.

x housing has roughly the same trend and then there are some strange things in the pce numbers. they count the implicit numbers of investment advice when you're portfolio goes down, you're paying less for investment price and in july for example, that is was a bigger negative inflation than used cars was a positive factor in any month in the last two years >> that factor will go away. that itself will add maybe .8% >> it is one-third of the index. even in the pce. it is a big number, a big portion of it. >> the other thing about housing, it is not a mistake in the index. all of the measures we see are new leases we're not seeing existing leases the existing leases is what the bls tracks and those are going to take a while. they actually still need to re-set up, not down. i think we're going to get more housing inflation there. but the big picture here is the fed is zero percent of the way

to the inflation goal. the unemployment rate has been stable at 3.5% interest rates are right now only 3%. monetary policy does work with a lag but a lot of that financial tightening happened six months ago. and yes, if all you cared about was unemployment, you would rather be more aggressive now so you don't have to do more later. they should do this job and get it done once and not make this a chronic three-year battle which would be even more costly. they're just at the beginning of this process unfortunately they can't afford to shrink from it. >> and we'll leave it on that cherry note. we're watching futures this morning. dow futures down by about 250. thank jason, tyler, sara, angela and steve and rick good job, guys >> meantime want to get down to the new york stock exchange and get jim cramer take on all of this what do you think of the number and more importantly what do you think the fed is going to do and the equities will do

>> that number is red hot. it is like nothing has happened. think that fed chief powell is on the right course. i remember -- in saying over and over again to my colleagues here that he wants your portfolio down so you won't be able to spend as much. he certainly doesn't want more wage increases he wants more people to come back to the labor force. and it is negative nothing positive here. and i've read this speech by waller and i listened to what everybody said and there is nothing good here. and it justified everything that they've done and they have to do more and this is the midday -- this is the mid-month sell-off that i expected until the end when we get to closer to the end of october and, look, it is just not good i don't have anything positive to say so i'm not going to make up anything. >> i guess the question, is what happens in the end of october?

when you have more earnings and if the earnings are positive, right, here is the great irony, if it is positive, which you sort of want them to be, it is only going to make the fed do more >> exactly exactly right. >> unless we get some very weak numbers. and he cares about wages and food and he cares about food and apartments and homes those have to start coming down. the commodities them sfz have come down. but i think that someone could make a case further for the two-year to go to 5 and change and not be laughed at. i think the fed has to take advantage of this at this moment and just say, listen, we have a lot of people who are employed but we have to cut inflation so let's take things up and make people feel that they have to come back to the work force. i mean it is still a lot of people because of covid said they're not coming back. but these are red hot. i mean these are numbers that

you just want, if you're coming out of a recession, not if you're worried about going into a recession. >> jim cramer. >> i wish i had something positive sorry. >> a five handle you think is a possibility on the two-year. >> yeah, i do.do i was hoping that wouldn't be the case, but i do >> we'll keep our eyes on that handle and see where it goes, jim. we'll see you in just a couple minks with the gang on "squawk on the street" and of course on "mad money" later today. >> let's get -- after seeing all this, we have a great guest coming up. kyle bass, the government's september employment report showed a pretty hot number, kyle joining us here to talk about that number and what it means. do you view it as hot or parts of it are hot? kyle with hammond capital management good or bad news >> when you have inflationary recessions, which is where we are, employment is the lagging

indicator. it's the last thing to turn, and it normally turns 6 to 10 months in, and so i think we're all focused, truly, on the wrong indicator. it's a little hot, but the number of job openings dropped pretty materially in august, and i think that also happened in september, so, you know, i know the markets don't like this, and i know the fed's going to keep hiking, but i think we're focused on the wrong indicator >> okay. at this point, how many more basis points, in your view, kyle given that maybe they're looking at lagging indicators and everything else, we just heard they've made zero headway getting to 2% inflation. so, what are they going to need? >> so, look, my own view is, you think about the balance sheet. the fed's balance sheet, pre-global financial crisis, was $900 billion the fed's balance sheet post-crisis, pre-covid, was $4.1 trillion. that balance sheet during covid went from $4.1 trillion to

$8.8 trillion. they're just now beginning to pull almost $100 billion a month off that balance sheet i think they're hoping to get a trillion off the balance sheet before they have to stop i don't think they'll get a trillion off the balance sheet before they have to stop so, i still hold that we'll be seeing a pause in rate cuts a little more than a year from now. >> so, half the stop instead of being able to stop because they gently land us at, you know, lower inflation levels what's going to cause them to stop what kind of dislocation >> i mean, europe's -- europe's going to have an aggressive recession. asia looks like it's in a reses. the dollar's strong, and the u.s. is already in a recession we just keep hiking. when you look at real gdp, we're already in a recession i know the white house has tried to redefine the definition, but in reality, when you look at the ceo survey, that ceo survey is

about as bad as it gets. you have 54% of ceos believe that the recession won't be short, that it will be longer than people think it is, and the overwhelming majority of ceos believe that we're in a recession, and so i think it's important to note that what drove our inflation, joe, wasn't necessarily only rates, right? it was the fact that we put 40% more money into the money supply in 18 months, and we're just now starting to make that money supply contract. and that's the real thing that the fed needs to focus on. i don't think rates are what they should be focusing on however, the trends called the mechanism of the rates, getting into the market, 9 to 12 months from now, mortgages were over 7% for a while, they were right at 3% we've had a 400-basis-point move in mortgage rates. you're going to see the economy

hit the brakes hard when the numbers start coming out from the lags >> i can't remember -- what was the -- i think president biden said something about mbs that was very nasty then he did the fist bump. looked like things were getting better, kyle i know you want to talk about opec what is opec up to what's the motivation here we heard michelle say that the saudis think they're being treated poorly by this administration, but this also helps russia so, what are all the different moving parts there what's the motivation from -- i mean, obviously, if we're going into a real sharp slowdown, you're going to need supply to be cut to keep prices where they'd like them to be so, it could be just that simple >> i don't know, joe so, demand for hydrocarbons in recessions, it's only about 1 in 6 recessions when you actually have a slowdown in demand for hydrocarbons hydrocarbon demand is inelastic.

as you know, i'm very much a believer in the greatness of the united states and the ingenuity of our students and universities and the robustness of our economy and in the end, we end up making the right decisions, economically, most of the time but it's kind of comical to me to see us upset about opec making a cut when we've been selling a million barrels a day out of our spr since march, and we've done two special sales, one at 50 million and one at 20 million barrels. we have been -- we, as a country, have been manipulating the oil prices lower from march to today, and i think those are supposed to end at the end of october. and i think all opec's doing is countering what we've been doing to kind of get a real market so, you know, i typically applaud many things that the u.s. does. in this case, i think it's kind of ripe that we're upset that

opec's cutting when we've been manipulating the price lower for, you know, six months or more >> with -- would you call that an emergency, what -- i guess by definition, that wasn't what the spr was intended for, to give us a little reliefat the pump whe there's inflation raging >> no. i mean, the spr is not designed, if you read its organization, it's not designed for lowering pump prices because we think it's a good idea to lower pump prices it is for periods of time in which the u.s. is experiencing extraordinary events like hurricane katrina and like events and forces that act on the u.s. in this case, putin's invasion of ukraine definitely accelerated the trends that were going on globally, but taking our spr down below where it was

in 1984 and then the white house is talking about loosening restrictions on venezuela and maduro in order to import some more heavy crude from venezuela, when all we had to do was green-light the keystone pipeline to get heavy crude from a friendly, law-abiding nation i just think the policy changes, joe, are a little bit hard to swallow for me i think that, again, we need a very long-term comprehensive energy transition strategy, and it can't be dictated to us by europe or ngos that think we should be all alternative energy you're seeing the problems with the u.s. trying to do an iran deal at the same time we're begging saudi arabia to pump more i mean, in the geopolitical universe, that's kind of -- puts a smile on people's face you say, wait a minute, we want to remove some of the world's worst terrorists, the largest state of state-sponsored terrorists in the world from our

sanctions list in order to try to get a deal done with the jcpoa and at the same time, we want to fly to saudi arabia, who's kind of their mortal enemy, and ask them to pump more oil. joe, i just think that our policy with energy is a little bit of the keystone cops >> you do not shrink away from big geopolitical issues. i don't know where you want to go you can start nuclear, putin and nukes, north korea and all this recent, you know, missile activity around japan, china and taiwan that part of the world has got more than a few land mines at this point >> yeah. look, i've been a believer, over the long-term, that if the central banks of the world are going to go down the path of expanding balance sheets and trying to avoid recessions at all costs, you look at what the

uk's doing, talking about securing mortgages, talking about capping energy, they want to avoid consumer pain and the result of making longer-term bad decisions in the past, and the way they want to do it is print money at every turn. when that happens, what that does is it basically, the gap between the haves and the have nots continues to widen, right the poor are disproportionately affected by inflation, and the printing of money. the middle class get locked out of upward mobility because they simply can't afford to move higher, especially now that rates are moving higher, and the rich, who own the assets, and who have leverage on those assets, end up getting richer all along, and so if that's the way the world goes, what that means is more friction in the world's going to come about. food prices are going to be higher so, i believe that everything you're seeing in north korea, everything that you're seeing in russia, i just think that friction is all a result of the

wealth gap widening. >> an interesting take kyle, all that -- with all that said, it's still friday, so that's -- i want to -- that's all i got. but kyle, thanks for coming on today and cheering us all up before the weekend we'll be back next week. >> we will >> we'll see you next week >> we'll see whether the rest of us, where the world is >> "squawk on the street's" next ♪ good friday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with david faber and jim cramer stocks going to give back what was the best week since june as jobs grow, unemployment, 3.5 tech is taking a beating on amd's guide. road map begins with