tv Power Lunch CNBC October 7, 2022 2:00pm-3:00pm EDT
2:00 pm
lunch" which starts right now. >> hello, tyler, hello, everybody, welcome to "power lunch," stocks falling after the jobs report, 263,000 jobs added, it was fewer than expected but the unemployment rate and participation rate fell with the labor market remaining tight here, will the fed fight back harder against inflation. and oil back above $90 a barrel, doesn't help, opec cut production target to keep prices high the u.s. needs to fight back, and his take coming up tyler. >> contessa, i'm tyler mathisen, we're seeing markets fall after the jobs report, fears that the fed won't be able to take its foot off its brake that's sending stocks lower. remember that, it seems like such a long time ago the s&p 500 still, however, up nearly 2% for the week even with
2:01 pm
today's 2 1/2% decline chip stocks among the worst performers, we just talked about them on "the exchange" as amd comes out with a revenue performe performer. that's dragging the sector down. markets have been desperate for a jobs report that will make the fed's job easier nonfarm payrolls increasing to 263,000 for the month of september. that's just shy of the 275,000 that wall street was expecting but the unemployment rate fell to 3.5%. .2 percentage points lower than expectations and the labor force participation rate also following and then average hourly earnings growing by 5% compared to last year. when you look at all of that together, fewer workers are making more money. ultimately that leads to higher inflation. let's bring in keith fitzgerald. a principal at fitzgerald group.
2:02 pm
good to see you today. you get the jobs report, you see the market reaction. how do you put this together in any kind of cohesive strategy moving through october and toward the end of the year >> well, i'm chuckling because the use of cohesive and fed in the same sentence don't necessarily come to mind right off the bat. the way i look at this, the data, the fed, they are about as wrong about rates and labor as they were about transitory, so i look at a report like today and say where can i buy that makes sense given a longer term time horizon. i don't think the fed is on target i'm going into the fight, not away from it. >> what does that mean to you, how are you getting into the fray >> let's take amd, revenues are up 29% year over year, everybody flipping out, they supposedly aren't going to meet guidance. that's the sign of prudent management they're adjusting ahead of time, 90% of the world's data has been created in the last few years. they are a key player in
2:03 pm
managing it. that genie is never going back in the bottle. i have a longer time horizon, that's on my radar that's the kind of thing i like to buy when the markets get carried out first. >> you can see how the stock is reacting today, down 12% as amd preannou preannounced revenue and margins that were lower on weaker client revenue. the preannouncement stuff is taken on the chin early, don't wait for earnings. >> you know, i think that's one way to look at it, i look at it this way, companies figured out by accident last quarter that they can engage in the politicians game, spin control they're coming out with preemptive announcements, trying to mitigate the damage ahead of time they should be saying look at all the other stuff working for us and they're missing that opportunity, in my humble opinion. >> let's talk about a couple of stocks that you likt now a -- right now. amd, you have a contrarian view
2:04 pm
on pepsi is another one you like. >> pepsi and tesla both. if you're not paying attention to stocks like this at times like these, i would submit that you really aren't in it for the investments. you're in it for the specialization or las vegas style trade. these companies are in high demand from consumers, great numbers on the table, and all of everything else is a side show, tyler. >> so a lot of people are down on tesla you know, it's been down for a long time. what do you see? is it trucks that is going to be a big thing for tesla, do you think, or? >> well, it's much more than that i mean, the only thing that poohooars have gotted right about tesla is they have continually under estimated elon musk what the street doesn't like is he plays by his own rule, he has got the cash to do it, and he makes bold sweeping moves. i like a maverick. i like that idea it's returned thousands of percent over the last decade
2:05 pm
he's into electrical trading, car production >> do you like a maverick who arguably is overpaying for twitter? >> i don't know that you can fairly say he's overpaying for twitter because you don't know what his plans are any more than i do i agree with you, i think that's currently the question on my mind it doesn't bother me, i think he's going to reinvent that space and he has something in his mind that he hasn't made available to the public. >> we will see it's going to be interesting to see no matter what keith thank you so much for your insights today we appreciate it more on the jobs report and the state of the economy, let's bring in mike morial, the president and ceo of the urban leagues. i sense that you are worried in this report particularly about what is happening to black workers in terms of wages, in terms of unemployment, in terms of hiring. >> you know, ty, i think it's important to look at the report on balance
2:06 pm
what i really see is this consistent, robust job creation. i see that notwithstanding the fact that black unemployment is still twice as high as white, it is down to a level not seen before the covid recession i also see, according to a report by brookings, that the wages for those in the bottom quartile has increased faster than those in the top quartile, which means the beginning of maybe some changes in this sort of income gap that's been persistent in the american economy. so i think it's important to look at every report with balance. there's a tremendous amount of good news in the economy the fastest recovery post recession in modern times. unemployment rate and robust job creation, which is at a strong tick the future of infrastructure investment, chips and science
2:07 pm
investment renewable energy investment by the government, which will incentivize and encourage more private investment, bode well for the future the yellow light, the caution notes are all around inflation, and the impact that inflation will have, and questions with respect to whether the fed really has the tools in its tool box to tamp down inflation i do not want to see unemployment become the weapon against inflation. because that does not bode well for the future of the american economy, so this is about calibration. it's certainly about balance, and it's about what level of inflation we can truly tolerate while sustaining growth and job creation. >> you've got unemployment at 3.5% in the most recent numbers, and that is a tremendously low number, if you really look at it there. i mean, i guess the fed's tools are a little bit crude
2:08 pm
its monetary policy, interest rate policy, when i think of monetary policy, i think of quantitative ease and tightening they have been taking money out of the system. prior to that, they have been flooding it in and that's probably asmuchas anything why inflation is as high as it is. >> you know, one of the things we all should keep in mind is the global nature of the united states economy, its interdependence of europe, asia, even latin america and africa. where the markets and the products that we buy or that which is used to manufacture the products that we buy, how finance works, so the american economy may be 1/5 of world gdp. in 1960, it was half of world gdp. so the ability of fed policy to impact, if you will, those things that are as a result of has happening in china or in
2:09 pm
europe, due to russia and ukraine, may be somewhat limited. i am not a doom and gloom person there are a lot of chicken littles with ph.d.s running around predicting doom and gloom. that's not where i am. where i am is caution and certainly modulation, but we've got to continue job creation we've got to continue growth in the american economy we've got to continue to address the difficult issues of if you will, wage gaps and wage inflation and the black wealth gap and the racial wealth gap while at the same time continuing growth that's going to benefit all we're better able to confront the difficult challenges of the american economy if we're growing. >> right >> if we're growing at a sustained consistent pace. i get green lights and yellow lights. >> i get your polly anna take.
2:10 pm
i have been accused of being a cheerful outlook type of person too. marc, that being said, you've got a lot to like here, wages are going up where are the people why aren't people showing up and wanting to participate in the work force we're seeing that tick down again by a tenth of a percentage point from august, when the rate was 62.4%. >> it's a small decrease in the labor force. it's been consistent i think almost stagnant labor force participation. what are the reasons hard to tell one thing is we have an ageing population so we have certainly people who are not necessarily participating on a month-to-month basis in seeking a job. number two, there remains workers who for whatever reason want to stay close to home or at home for whatever the reasons are. i talked to some folks last night who say we have seen
2:11 pm
workers choose no job versus a job where they have to come into the office i think it's a variety of factors. i wouldn't make much of a 1/10 of a percent decline in the labor force participation rate i think the issue is the long-term. the long-term labor force participation rate has been stagnant for quite some time, and there may be some demographic fact that is play into that. >> we have seen ceos say they have had to reverse course trying to get people back into work did not work, and they want people back in jobs more than they want people in the office marc morial, good to see you. >> good to see you, sir. ahead on the program, wall street warning amd cutting its outlook, blaming supply chain woes worst day since march of 2020, and you remember that month. and new reports say fedex is seeing volume declines across every segment around the world we'll dive deeper into those
2:12 pm
names when power lunch returns but first up, next, oil on the rise crude hitting $92 a barrel best week since november 2020. this as tensions with opec heat up, but our next guest has a way for the u.s. to beat the group at its own game, he says as we check out the break, check out the alternative energy ev names, rivian now 9% at fidelity, your dedicated advisor will help you create a comprehensive wealth plan for your full financial picture. with the right balance of risk and reward. so you can enjoy more of...this. this is the planning effect.
2:15 pm
crude oil on the move as the u.s. and white house respond to opec's planned production cut of 2 million barrels. our next guest says now is the time to beat opec at its own game the u.s. needs to ramp up production among other things to bring energy prices down ron joins us now she's senior adviser so schroeder's north america. do we have the capacity to ramp up production in a way that would make a material difference go ahead >> go ahead, i'm sorry we're heading to 12.3 million barrels a day by next year in the piece i suggest that the federal government, like it does with other commodity support systems should, for american producers only, put a floor under the price of oil that's drilled here $65 a barrel, let's say, and allow them to make sure that they remain profitable, particularly in the fracking community but then produce flat
2:16 pm
out. if the global price of oil actually drops and hurts saudi arabia and russia, it's time that we break away entirely from the saudis they're in an alliance with one of our two principle adversaries and i think we should do everything we can to pull the rug out from underneath everybody who depends on oil revenue as a source of budgets, whether it's in saudi arabia or whether it's vladimir putin financing a war. >> up production, put a floor under domestically produced oil so that marginal fraccers or other marginal pumpers of oil would be impelled to stay in the market, but you know what the response is among the environmental movement >> sure. >> this was anifama to them, and the democratic left and many in the biden orbit would oppose this >> yeah, so tyler, we have a short-term problem, and we have a long-term problem. a long-term problem obviously has to do with climb change,
2:17 pm
green energy solutions and the like, none of which will solve what is not just a domestic price problem but a global supply problem particularly in europe with more pipelines, more oil, even more natural gas, we should be able to help out europe and others who need those supplies, bring our own price of gasoline down and do everything we can to beat saudi and russia in this game we have missed our opportunities on many different occasions. i think not just all of the above, but even go with the nuclear option, no matter how long that takes, start building modern nuclear power plants which are among the cleanest sources of energy around, and do both short and long-term things that would be advantageous to the u.s. both from an energy policy perspective but also a foreign policy perspective as well. >> while you're building the pipelines and installing the rigs and exploring more places to drill, ron, what's your idea
2:18 pm
about the way that the administration says it will use the strategic reserve as a tool. >> that's what it's there for. if you're having an oil crisis, use the strategic oil preserve it's been drawn down rather dramatically if prices come down noticeably, the administration could restock it at more favorable price levels than we had today i think there really needs to be some -- andi hate to use this expression, out of the box thinking around where we sit right now, both in the short run and in the long run, and again, i would even do business with the venezuelans and the iranians to get them back in the nuclear deal and let them produce oil as well or let chevron back into venezuela. what's the difference between doing business with venezuela and iran, and saudi arabia and russia the enemy of my enemy is my friend >> let's talk a little bit about, in the united states we
2:19 pm
became the world's largest, i mean, i agree with you -- we became the world's largest producer of petroleum, right >> right >> and then in 2014 and 2015, the saudis decided to flood the world with oil to drive the u.s. fraccers out of business russia joined the party later on and continued to push down the price of oil until the united states fracking community was forced in an untenable situation, bankrupt cies, and i think just in the short run, again, two, three, maybe even five years we engage in a policy like this. i know climate activists will be very upset i know environmentalists will be upset but we have to figure some way out of this in the short run in order to ensure some long run opportunities in cleaner, greener energy, whether that requires a sort of marshall plan or man hatten project to do it is considers number one, not that we rely
2:20 pm
fully on saudi oil but they're in the driving seat, and russia can't finance the military. >> i agree that energy policy is national security policy, it ha always has been. we have acted naively over the years. ron insana, always great to see you. >> after the break, passive aggressive traders, shifting away from retail stocks. we'll take a look at the biggest close this week. and further ahead, trip and fall, lower after issuing significant warnings to investors. we've got that when "power lunch" returns the down dow just about 6 points, off 2% for the day
2:21 pm
2:22 pm
mahighest-grade undevelopedon. silver projects in the world, in the "silver state" of nevada. with a maiden resource estimate just announced, the focus now is on further expansion. blackrock silver. if you have this... and you get this... you could end up with this... unexpected out-of-pocket costs. so if you're on medicare, or soon to be, consider this. an aarp medicare supplement insurance plan from unitedhealthcare. medicare alone doesn't pay for everything. and what it doesn't pay for, like deductibles and copays, could add up to thousands of dollars. medicare supplement plans help by paying some of what medicare doesn't... and making your out-of-pocket costs a lot more predictable. call unitedhealthcare now and ask for your free decision guide. medicare supplement plans also let you see any doctor. any specialist. anywhere in the u.s. who accepts medicare patients.
2:23 pm
take charge of your health care today. consider adding this. call unitedhealthcare today about an aarp medicare supplement plan. welcome back to "power lunch" we look at etf market as a hole and see where the money went amid the market volatility. the etf market took in 14 billion of net inflows this week it started with a bang ending with bag decline after the jobs report. worries about the fed and what earnings season will bring when it starts for real next week
2:24 pm
and the three funds that took in the most money all of these had a billion dollars of inflows spider short term t bill etf, and the vanguard total market etf, s&p 500 fund. more information available on ftwillshire etfhub. now let's get to bertha coombs the uvalde school district has suspended the entire police department for a period of time. this comes nearly five months after the deadly elementary shooting that left 19 students and two teachers dead. officials say recent developments in their investigation led to that sus possession. a coroner's report out of iran said 22-year-old mahsa amini died of organ failure due to underlying disease, and not due to physical blows.
2:25 pm
her family says they believe she wasbeaten while in the custody of iran's so called morality police after she defied the country's strict dress code. it has sparked widespread protests across the country, against the laws governing women. a new report from the department of health and human services estimates that covid vaccines prevented over 300,000 deaths among seniors in 2021, and the reduction in hospitalizations likely saved more than $16 billion in medical costs. contessa, tyler, back to you. thank you very much, bertha. ahead on "power lunch" after a significantly rough september, it is no shock that october is continuing with the volatility huge rallies on monday and tuesday. today, deep in the red as we have been saying we are going to continue to watch the markets with less than two hours left in trading. plus, cbs health problems, the pharmacy getting a downgrade from the centers for medicare
2:26 pm
and medicaid services. we will train that name. and the power playbook, today we look at staples, one of the better performing sectors this year not the company, the sector, down 13%, however, the names may not be inflation proof but will they hold up better than most in a recession? the dow right now down 655 i think that's the low of the day, somebody tell me in my ear. e s. thdow and nasdaq off almost 4% we'll be right back, don't go way. go.
2:27 pm
go green. go wind turbines. go gorgeous reliable grid. go emerson software. go science people. go breakthrough meds and safe science. go space age welds for super silent cars. go big. or go home. from software that delivers new cures at warp speed, to technology that makes clean energy reliable, emerson innovation helps make the world healthier, safer, smarter and more sustainable. go boldly. emerson.
2:28 pm
millions have made the switch from the big three to the best kept secret in wireless: xfinity mobile. go boldly. that means millions are saving hundreds a year with the fastest mobile service. and now, introducing, the best price for two lines of unlimited. just $30 per line. there are millions of happy campers out there. and this is the perfect time to join them... see how easy it is to save hundreds a year on your wireless bill over t-mobile, verizon, and at&t. talk to our switch squad at your local xfinity store today.
2:29 pm
we have 91 minutes left in the trading day, and we want to get you caught up on the markets, stocks, bonds, commodities and the last page in the play book. today, consumer staples, the markets are sliding, bob, what's behind this big dropoff? >> well, essentially it's a technology-led selloff remember, we're still up about 1 1/2% for the s&p, and so is the nasdaq, but only fractionally i want to show you the sectors that are impacted the most here. this is what i call risk-off day. transportation stocks,
2:30 pm
semiconductor, these are all cyclical groups. they're much weaker than the s&p 500, that's a riskoff day and that's what we'reseeing today. i want to point out some of these energy stocks. it is remarkable to see the energy move, $77 in oil a couple of weeks ago $92 and above today. you would think there would be big moves up in energy stocks. they have had a move in the last two weeks, but not really today. there could be global growth concerns weighing on them as well big cap tech is the story. amd is down 12%, the worst performer, that's about pc sales they're talking about. down 12% that's weighing on all of the semiconductors nvidia is getting clobbered and capital equipment stocks like applied materials are down microsoft is unusually weak. you don't see that often, microsoft down 5%. apple also weak. you might think, boy there must
2:31 pm
be heavy volume. there isn't. it's about normal volume a lack of buying interest right now. where are we the real simple problem is inflation is not coming down fast enough for the market or the federal reserve right now. there's no shift in the hawkish fed tone that we have seen, and as a result, we're entering earnings season in what i call stock pergurgatory, the valuatis are in the air what's the number, we don't know earnings up 4%, 6%, should it be flat, down 10% unusually wide cluelessness, and that means dispersion of opinions, dispersion of estimates and more volatility for the marks. guys, back to you. >> you know what purgatory means, you have to sit and wait until it's over with bob pisani, thank you. >> bonds are selling off along with stocks, sending the yields higher rick santelli joins. hey, rick. >> we have to go back to the
2:32 pm
beginning of the story to understand markets today 8:30 eastern, releasing the september jobs report, 3.5% was the unemployment rate, and we've had several 3.5s, but to find a lower one, you have to go all the way back to the spring of 1969 to find a 3.4%. lower rate, higher fed terminal rate that's all anybody's been talking about today. look at interday of twos, you can clearly see the leap in rates. if you go to the ten-year, it's more exaggerated look at boons, guilds, anything, even the bank of japan who keeps their rates so tight, a look at jgbs, all the same move everywhere what did that do to the fed funds horizon, well, the pivot is still in april of 23 fed fund futures. the price stops going down and starts going up. so last friday, we had a rate in
2:33 pm
april of 4.645%. today, 18 basis points lower, more fed, 4.465. the high water mark and the most aggressive tightening was the week at 923. and finally, zoom zoom zoom, here's one week of the dollar index. it turned it around up on the day, up on the week, contessa, back to you. >> a lot of information there, rick thank you for helping us get through that oil closing for the day, back above 90 bucks a day pi pippa stevens at the commodity desk rgs desk, what are you looking at? >> we're once again hearing calls that oil will soon be back above $100, although a global downturn could challenge that narrative. let's check on prices here wbti is up 4 1/2%.
2:34 pm
92.47. brent crude at 97. for a gain of 3.6% the move in prices for refined products is more extreme amid outages, gasoline futures rising almost 11% on the week, and heating oil, which is a proxy for diesel jumps 19 1/2% on the heels of this strength, we have seen huge gains across energy stocks with this sector up about 15% for the week. we're seeing gains across the board and the upstream players, levered to oil prices are the standout apa, marathon, oil and devin all gaining more than 20% this week, and finally, take a look at exxon, dipping into negative territory, still up 16%. wells fargo reiterated the overweight rating on the company and lifted its target, saying eon will continue to benefit from strength in its upstream division contessa. >> thank you very much for that. we continue to see that selloff accelerating across the markets, the dow jones industrial off 675
2:35 pm
points or 2 1/4% s&p off 2.8% and the nasdaq composite now 3.78%, approaching the 4% mark as we head into the weekend. today the focus on consumer staples, flat after falling to a 52-week low. it's out performing the broader market names like archer daniels and hershey, lead the etf even higher here with his 4th quarter playbook is nick modi, the managing director at rbc capital marks. it's good to see you let's talk a little bit about consumer staples on a day like today, you have seen the broader market plummet it probably seems like a safe haven bet for a lot of investors. >> let's not forget that consumer staples are trading at all time highs relative to the s&p 500 in terms of valuation. so these stocks are very very expensive. but there's no question that
2:36 pm
when the market becomes risk averse, this sector tends to benefit, which is why you're seeing it outperform on a relative basis. >> what's the difference between a consumer staple and consumer discretionary stuff. i'm sometimes perplexed by it. i see hershey on the list, coke on the list, pepsi on the list, those seem to me to be sort of discretionary purposes some of the time, as opposed to staples. where do you draw the distinction, draw the line >> the way you have to think about it, every day groceries you might put in your basket, and so one could argue chocolate is discretionary, for some people, certainly not for me but, you know, the reason why it gets grouped in with staples, it has much more of a stable buying behavioral pattern, versus other categories that may not be as frequent, like buying a warning machine or a refrik gerator or investigation.
2:37 pm
>> you look at general mills, people are going to buy sercerel they're going to keep buying diapers and detergent. >> every company has its own nuance, stock picking, you have to get into private label exposures geographic exposures, there's a whole host of things that have to go into the algorithm that you have to think about when picking stocks. >> we're going to ask you, nick, to get into the nitty-gritty, in this group, who do you like? who do you think has staying power? who do you think will outperform the market, even if we get past this initial fear phase? >> yeah, so i think you have to understand, i guess, and you guys were just talking about etfs and passive investing, themes and thematic investing is becoming very pervasive. it's really what's cutting across most industries, and so when you think about it within that landscape, europe is going
2:38 pm
to be a problem. currency is going to be a problem. right, not having pricing power is going to be a problem, still in 2023, so the names that we really like are u.s. centric in nature that have pricing power and have some kind of company specific nuance, that i think will lead to some up side in terms of earnings and revenue as we go forward the next 12 months constellation brands, we would categorize in the grouping. >> when we're talking about continued persistent inflation, you know, you just heard tyler say, look, general mills, people are going to keep buying cereal. i keep pushing back on that based on my own childhood and the way that i saw my mom choosing off brand general -- >> store brand. >> if the price pressure becomes too much, people opt for
2:39 pm
different categories do you see that as looming pressure for coca-cola, general mills and the like hershey? >> and you'll notice, so i don't necessarily believe that will be the case for hershey, which is why it's the only food company i put in the bucket. if you think about packaged food in general, they're mostly u.s. central companies. theoretically they should be in this grouping, i do believe, and i agree, i do think, as we roll into next year, more promotional pricing pressure that we have not seen in the last 12, 18 months importantly, i think there's going to be pressure from private label as we roll forward. right now, what's happening, consumers are going from out of home to inhome that's benefitting the package food companies as we roll into 2023, we might have a little more pressure from private labels. >> nick modi of rbc capital markets. thanks for the advice. >> thanks for having me. up next, amd slashing guidance, warning about slumping
2:40 pm
demand that's rippling through the tech world. check out bitcoin, the cryptocurrency cannot keep its head -- does cryptocurrency have a head >> isn't that the one with the double dollar sign >> it is hispanic heritage month, we celebrate with our cnbc contributors. here's norwegian cruise lines ceo, frank del rio >> i've been both very lucky and very blessed to be hispanic. being a cuban refugee in the 1960s and growing up in connecticut, one of the things my parents instilled in me at a young age was a standard of excellence, whatever you do, be the best at it work hard and great things will come and if i could only give someone two pieces of advice, that would be it. reach for the stars. we can allethe g tre
2:44 pm
u.s. formalizes a sweeping set of export controls aimed at preventing companies like am did and nvidia from sending chips to china for national security reasons. the smhetf down 5% on pace for its worst day in a month with all 25, all 25 components lower and you see it down there nearly 6% let's bring in vivek aria, senior semiconductor analyst at b of a securities. let's take the individual company thing first, and we'll get to the question of export embargoes second what are the individual company factors that are causing these firms, blue chip companies line nvidia, like amd, to stumble so? >> thank you, tyler. i think the semiconductor industry has this habit of making you feel amazing and awesome for three years, and really awful in the fourth year. and i think in the fourth year, and what's causing the awfulness of this year is consumer, rising
2:45 pm
grade, as you mentioned, additional china restrictions. in the specific case of amd, i think the weakness is really the pc market. it is kind of the hangover we had once we came out of covid. bc sales which used to be 2 milliona year from an industry perspective, went to 340 million, and now we are trying to get back to what used to be pre-covid levels, and that's what has hurt intel, a lot of memory companies, and now it's amd's turn it's not really a new data point. it's hurting different companies at different times on the positive side, what i will say is that their data center business is holding up well, up over 40% this year. we think they continue to take share from intel going into next year, and i think the valuation at mid teens for one of the leading compute franchises, i think remains compelling we have come to like the stock, we understand consumer weakness
2:46 pm
could be an over hang. >> pc issue is demand getting pulled forward by the pandemic am i right, which i often am. >> i think there was a lot of demand going forward and in the first half of the year as the industry was starting to come out of the shortages, a lot of inventory was build up, and now many of the customers, given the weak macro conditions are just unwilling to hold even the level of inventory that would have had in a normal consumer period because those customers are look the at inflationary head winds in the u.s., all the turmoil in europe, and they're looking at all the lock down situation in china, so that customer confidence is not there, and whenever the customer confidence is not there, it forces them to bring more inventory than they would have in normal times like i said -- >> go ahead, sorry, i interrupted you. >> at the bc market, what is priced in now is below pre-covid levels from our perspective, i think a
2:47 pm
lot of the pc weakness is not priced into these stocks. >> before i get to nvidia, whic fascinates me, a darling in the market for a long time i want to talk about export controls how big a head wind long-term is that likely to be for american producers? >> sure, so the first one i would say is that, look, the friction between the largest designer of semis, which is the u.s., and the largest buyer of semis, which is china is not a good thing for a global industry i understand and appreciate the reasons while we are seeing these restrictions but we estimate that the effect is about 5 to 7% for the industry and the reason is that a majority of the chips that have actually shipped to china are really for consumer applications such as ceremonies, such as pcs, they're not really for, you know, of course we ship a lot to the super computing market that's a smaller end market. if i take the global super
2:48 pm
computing, and global defense market, it's not more than 10% of the semiconductor demand. half of that is in china, the impact is 5% or so the headline impact seems to be a lot more, but can you actually work through the numbers, the impact is concentrated into names such as, you know, from a broader industry perspective, it's about a 5% head wind. >> very quickly if i might nvidia from golden child to problem child is an enduring problem child or is there a return >> no, i think with nvidia, look, the key is that we are still in the first 15% of ai adoption in the data centers, and that's the technology that's going to have very wide usage in cloud computing. automotive, metaverse, and this is the company with the best solution we're bullish on nvidia. the other half of the business, which is consumer, that's where the head wind is going to be. >> fascinating conversation.
2:49 pm
we appreciate it. >> bob pisani said purgatory, vivek put a time on it three good years, and a year a year of purgatory, if you know it, you got to hang on after the break, more on the markets now. you look the at dow, we've got the dow industries off 2 1/3%. almost 700 points. s&p 500 is off 3%. nasdaq composite off almost 4% we'll dive deeper into the market declines, trade some of today's key movers and makers. this is "power lunch." we'll be right back.
2:50 pm
at humana we believe your healthcare should evolve with you and part of that evolution means choosing the right medicare plan for you. humana can help. with original medicare you are covered for hospital stays and doctor office visits but you'll have to pay a deductible for each. a medicare supplement plan can cover your deductibles and coinsurance but you may pay higher premiums and still not get prescription drug coverage. but with an all-in-one humana medicare advantage plan you could get all that coverage plus part d prescription drug benefits. with no copays or deductibles on tier 1 prescriptions. you get all this coverage for as low as a zero-dollar monthly plan premium in many areas. humana has a large network of doctors and hospitals. so call or go online today and get your free decision guide. discover how an all-in-one humana medicare advantage plan could save you money. humana,
2:52 pm
welcome back to "power lunch. stocks falling sharply today, what we're always looking for opportunity here, till ray giving back some of yesterday's gains after the president seemed to soften the stance on marijuana. cvs shares down today after a government rating cut to cvs health plan could result in lower revenue. and lyft shares fell yet another after another analyst downgraded the stock. let's bring in cnbc contributor boris schlassberg. first let's talk till ray. >> so till ray interesting story
2:53 pm
obviously, becomes very much a story stock now with potential federally legalization of marijuana. if that's the case i think it really does have a bright future ahead of it simply because it's one of the biggest brand names in the segment and, therefore, it's going to attract a lot of investor attention it's improved its balance sheet over the last year from a negative $100 million cash to negative 49. moving in the right direction. the story will be very much whether federalization -- federal legalization of marijuana happens. in that case you have the story potentially. speculative stock but definitely has a tremendous amount of potential. >> look at that decline today, though, down 18% whopper. >> go ahead, finish. >> for sure, yeah. >> let's look at cvs >> cvs getting hammered today on this signify acquisition deal, the market doesn't like t i think they overpaid for it i think you have to look past that because cvs is trying to become the mcdonald's of health
2:54 pm
care which is an oxymoron. i mean they're trying to become an all in one package for consumers, a very trusted brand name in health care benefits, pharma benefits and retail space. long term i think that's a very sound plan, especially given the demographic wave that we are of aging population so to me cvs now with a nice fat dividend, you probably want to sell puts against it if you don't want to own the position right now but long term looks like a good hold and buy. >> our final name today lyft. >> not much lift there, i'm sorry, i couldn't resist company still running 135% of revenue in terms of cost it's just -- i mean, the question is will this company ever become profitable and i think the answer is probably no. they've exhausted, i think, the whole last mile segment and unless they can reinvent themselves i think that's what the market is seeing the market is seeing there's very little realistic path to profitability here so the stock remains a dog and probably will remain so for the lock rub. >> all three of these stocks having a dog of a day on -- in
2:55 pm
the markets today. boris, thank you for that. still to come, the holiday humdrum getting worse. we heard yesterday that retailers may not expect a strong shopping season now the delivery giants are slumping on similar fears. we will talk about that one when we wrap it all up. power e*trade's award-winning trading app makes trading easier. with its customizable options chain, easy-to-use tools, and paper trading to help sharpen your skills, you can stay on top of the market from wherever you are. power e*trade's easy-to-use tools make complex trading less complicated. custom scans help you find new trading opportunities. while an earnings tool helps you plan your trades and stay on top of the market.
2:57 pm
help? c,mon, get in. nothing great gets done alone. that's why there's shopify. with shopify, you can set up your online store; you can sell on social media; or, you can sell in person, with our point of sale system. it doesn't have to be lonely at the top. join the millions to find success - on their own terms. start your journey with a free trial today. shares of fedex falling
2:58 pm
intraday on reports of another warning. frank holland joins us with those details. >> well, fedex shares are falling after that kruters report citing an internal memo detailing the company's plans to issue a warning about falling holiday peak volume. u.p.s. shares also falling in sym sympathy fedex has plummeted 25% since the co issued a dire warning on september 15th about dramatically lower profits and of a global slowdown that could lead to a recession. i've been in contact with fedex, they said the company is updating individual contractors that operate its residential e-commerce focused grand unit and they say the updates are an extension of the original warning from their ceo since then there have been a lot of questions, are fedex's problems execution issues or a sign of something bigger if you look like each with today's warning we haven't seen a major downturn in other stocks that are tied to holiday shipping, for example, union pacific and ch robinson get a major portion of their revenue from asian imports, their stocks
2:59 pm
not taking a major move to the down side after that warning despite concern of a holiday slowdown the forecast from ship matrix, a leading data provider, is for e-commerce to be flat year over year, about $92 million passage per day. the question is are these problems fedex's or signs of a recession or something else. >> you know, frank, it's interesting because when we are looking at the issue of the holiday shopping and shipping season, last year there were so many problems, there were problems getting people -- enough people into the jobs. are you starting to see those labor squeezes shift aside we are going to be at about the same rate at last year >> that's a wait and see fedex is not really doing any big holiday hiring but u.p.s. is hiring just about the same amount of people and just earlier this week we saw amazon announce they aregoing to hire about 150,000 workers. can they find them in the tight labor market there are some questions about are there people out there that want to work and just kind of have given up on finding the right job.
3:00 pm
remember we had the -- i forget what it was called when people quit their jobs and walked away, are we seeing quiet quitting. >> what are we labeling it now >> the great resignation, wasn't that what it was. >> >> i think something like that. >> the question is do people want their jobs? there is not a question about enough workers but do people want to take these jobs into frank, thanks. happy weekend sh everybody thank you for watching "power lunch" "closing bell" starts rit now. stocks are pulling back sharply as investors weigh how the strong jobs number will impact the fed's next move. and corporate warnings are piling up. this is the make or break hour for your money, welcome, everyone, to clotheser bell. i'm sara eisen near the lows of the day as you can see we've been drifting lower all afternoon, down 2.2% on the dow, s&p 500 down almost 3%, it's looking like an ugly close with the nasdaq down 3.6% and small caps is giving back 3% as well. we are actually still higher for the week take a look at a weekly chart here, up 1.5% on the s&p
84 Views
IN COLLECTIONS
CNBC Television Archive Television Archive News Search ServiceUploaded by TV Archive on