what it was called when people quit their jobs and walked away, are we seeing quiet quitting. >> what are we labeling it now >> the great resignation, wasn't that what it was. >> >> i think something like that. >> the question is do people want their jobs? there is not a question about enough workers but do people want to take these jobs into frank, thanks. happy weekend sh everybody thank you for watching "power lunch" "closing bell" starts rit now. stocks are pulling back sharply as investors weigh how the strong jobs number will impact the fed's next move. and corporate warnings are piling up. this is the make or break hour for your money, welcome, everyone, to clotheser bell. i'm sara eisen near the lows of the day as you can see we've been drifting lower all afternoon, down 2.2% on the dow, s&p 500 down almost 3%, it's looking like an ugly close with the nasdaq down 3.6% and small caps is giving back 3% as well. we are actually still higher for the week take a look at a weekly chart here, up 1.5% on the s&p 500,

still holding on to gains after that big rally we got on monday and tuesday. it is actually the first positive week in the last four for the overall market, but not looking pretty right now coming up on the show today tom lee will join us with his latest read on the market after today's jobs report and ahead of cpi, the inflation read next week. plus, we will talk to the ceo of tilray which spiked yesterday 30% after president biden's surprised pardon for some marijuana convictions though it is giving up a big chunk of those gains right now we will kick it off with the market on the market dashboard during the selloff, mike santelli is here every sector is lower, it's pretty broad that's been one of the hallmarks of the selloffs, the breadth bad. >> it's these one-way markets largely. monday and tuesday some of the strongest upside breadth we had seen in a long time. today pretty much across the board to the down side 80% to 90% down side volume. the s&p 500 we knew that the market was somewhat banking or

hopeful of a slightly softer labor picture from the employment report, did not get that we knew that the market was given a reprieve with a backup in treasury yields, the dollar easing off, oil staying tame all those things have basically worked in reverse. you do have the dollar and yield working a bit higher it brings us down to the level, sara mentioned, we're up for the week, about a percent and a half, that's how far we are off the year to date lows, we did close last friday pretty much at the year to date lows. this area 36.42 if we can think back to mid jouns, 3636 was the intraday low essentially this round trip of sorts over the past four months we didn't get escape velocity on that bounce, you will hear people say market is oversold, we are hovering above this down 25% threshold on the s&p 500 from the peak. that was friday's lows take a look at fedex, that's a big piece of the story today as well an implicit warning at least reports of an internal warning about yet weaker demand for

fedex. it has been weak even among the transports here you see it's actually traded more in line, fedex has, with the airlines than it has with either u.p.s. or the s&p road and rail subindex road and rail is truckers and railroads. so that gives you a macro view of what's been happening in terms of overall shipping volumes and the macro story. that's been weak but not nearly as weak as fedex it doesn't change the idea that we are perhaps in for some down grades of earnings expectations, but it's a little bit of a nuance in terms of a fedex-specific story. >> we're getting a lot of those down grades already. i wanted to bring up tesla, mike it is the worst performing stock on the s&p 500 this week down 15.5% so clearly dragging down the overall index. >> absolutely. >> maybe the twitter bid. >> no doubt about it. >> leading to some questions about his focus. but that has hung in there relatively well against some of the other nasdaq stocks.

>> it has. >> if this continues to crater, though, that will be a problem for the market. >> for sure. just because of its weight, because of its weight, by the way, it's like 20% of the consumer discretionary sector which is silly and amazon is almost another 20 or something like that. there's definitely an element here of presumption that elon musk will have to sell more twitter shares but also all of the still somewhat expensive nasdaq bellwethers are getting hit hard today you are seeing 4 or 5% come out of the likes of microsoft, amazon down, too that's been a little bit of this nagging story with the market where they got so expensive and crowded and it's been in waves they've had people -- >> and also what's expensive tesla lading at 50 times last year's earnings. >> tesla and amazon are in a different category, they don't really trade that closely on an earnings expectation basis microsoft in the mid 20s, you know, why can't that go down a couple more points in multiple. >> mike, thank you. we are still a week away from the official start to

earnings season but the warnings have been coming fast and furious. in a matter of weeks we have seen a flurry of red flags from, take a look, companies like ford, levi, samsung and many more, amd last night that was the most recent one the chip maker issuing weaker preliminary third quarter results due to slowing pc demand and also the supply chain. so what should investors make of all these warnings joining us is fund strat's tom lee who has been the loan bull, you have some more bulls in your corner lately. tom, the warnings don't bode well for earnings season. >> that's right, sara. i mean, earnings are slowing because there's a lot of tightening working their way through the system and companies ceos are cautious and i think that the earnings warnings kind of stand in contrast to market perceptions that the labor market is so strong that the fed has to keep really accelerating its hikes. >> so what you're saying is that the economy is actually weaker than the fed thinks?

>> yeah, i mean,i'd say right now of, you knew, the hard data that markets when they think about the fed and what they react to is reports like cpi or the employment report, but the soft surveys, whether it's the isms or it's the plethora of companies warning on earnings, you know, when companies have reduced profits or top line challenges or operational expenses, you know, they are not going to be hiring so i think it's still going to be a case where the market is data dependent, watching every report, next week's cpi is not an exception, but to me the gap that's widening is the soft data, whether it's like the surveys or the manheim used car price index, are showing a weakening of the inflationary pressures, but the hard data we're still seeing is showing the economy is quite stronger inflation side so i think it's just going to be a matter of time where, you know, the soft data is sort of anchoring where things are

headed and the hard data just catches up. >> in the meantime back to these warnings earnings and neg negativity, tom. doesn't it make it harder to be bullish on the market if earnings expectations have to come down? >> yeah, i mean, it's a little bit of a race against time, sara, because earnings are coming down and that's reflecting the effect of the economy slowing, but what's going to matter to markets because of positioning and really how equity allocations are playing out is when the fed decides enough tightening has taken place. i think you could still be in a situation where earnings are weakening and even expectations come down, but stocks are going to react to the change in ricks premium and that's going to be the day that investors really start to feel that the war on inflation is starting to -- you know, the tide is turning. it doesn't mean the fed has to pivot it just has to be the

cadence of data starts to look better and why do -- you might ask why does risk premium matter inflation and the risk of inflation is still one of the biggest tail risks for risk premium and really getting ahead of that, you know, seeing progress in inflation will matter tore compressing risk premium. i would add if you look at high yield spreads, which is, you know, kind of an important corollary and, you know, ancillary to how you look at market risk premium, high yield spreads aren't making new wides. they are actually narrower now than we were in june so there is that divergence between equity and credit and that's why some credit investors are becoming interested in owning credit. well, that does actually mean stocks can catch up once the tide of inflation is visibly turning on the hard data. >> it sounds like what you're saying is that the fed -- and this is what we see in the market action -- that the fed whether it will pivot or not, whether the data warrants or not is more important right now ultimately than earnings for the direction of the market. but even if you're there, tom,

even if you see continuing mounting evidence in the soft data that the economy is weakened inflation is slowing the fed is not there and they're making it clear it has a lot more work to do. the fed probably looks at 3.5% unemployment the lowest in decades and says we have more room to go. >> that's right. i mean, sara, if you look at market expectations, you know, november was -- the market was essentially soft penciling in 75 basis points any waist the odds just increased today's unemployment award didn't put a new fire under the fed's foot the fed is already on a path to raise between 125 -- 100 to 125 by the end of this year. that's really the base case, but that does mean post november 2nd, you know, there is another 50 it's not as if we are resetting the clock and suddenly talking about terminal rates hitting 7 i think what we have to keep in

mind is the fed can't even hint at changing their mind or even beginning to think about changing their mind as long as the tide of inflationary data looks unfavorable. so, you know, jolts was a good sort of start but then the payrolls report today didn't really make anyone feel better about inflation. it's almost data dependent and, you know, cpi is next week. >> brent crude is back to 98, that doesn't help either, wti at 93 you're sticking at 4800 i think for the s&p target, tom? it's getting farther and farther away >> i mean, that's a real stretch, but do i think stocks can rally into year-end, yes i think if i had to look at progress over the last three months, soft data, you know, like whether it's isms or lean indicators are really showing that inflation isn't necessarily accelerating, even, you know, even today's report wages aren't necessarily accelerating i do think it's a growing gap and when that gap sort of

recalibrates that's when the markets can take a breath and i think we still have enough time into year-end for that to happen and markets to rally. >> sticking to the bullish guns, tom. thank you for joining me good to talk to you. >> thanks. >> tom lee of fund strat much more on the selloff throughout the show including a closer look at the big pain in big cap tech, especially in light of some of those warnings today from amd and samsung concerns about demand. the nasdaq is down 3.6% as you can see. up next, shares of tilray are higher on the week following president biden's move to pardon some pot offenders, but giving up a lot of those gains today on the back of earnings we will talk to the ceo irwin simon next you'rewatching "closing bell" on cnbc. dow is down 650 points

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tech stocks are getting slammed right now in the midful this selloff look at the nasdaq, it's down 3.7% not helping higher treasury yields and a stronger dollar let's bring in steve kovac for a look at some of the movers. >> i'm going to start off with spotify that's down nearly 5% after reports today it canceled ten of its podcasts and laid off about 5% of staff. those reductions reportedly affecting podcast studio spotify has acquired over the last few years. originally content used to be the crown jewel for the company and now they're kind of paring it back. let's move on to mega caps, those are hurting after that warning from amd and samsung this morning microsoft is down more than 5% now likely due to that amd revised guidance from the

september quarter. warning of falling pc demand look, microsoft watchers, they knew this one was coming, microsoft said this summer pc demand began to deteriorate back in june. apple also hurting from that amd report last night on top of samsung's report, it's profit will fall significantly for the september quarter. apple is off more than 3% right now. meta down 4% following a verge report saying the company's metaverse product is full of bugs and it's own employees don't even use it. meta is expected to launch its first new headset since its metaverse pivot next week so the pressure is on for that one. just a few more to mention, sara, with the rest of big tech, amazon is down over 4% and alphabet the strongest of the group today down 2.5% following its pixel phone and smart watch launch yesterday. >> no shortage of catalysts hammering tech thank you. take a look at this pot stocks, they lit up after president biden announced pardons to thousands of

convicted -- thousands convicted of marijuana possession, but now that high is gone, they're falling along with the rest of the market tilray is one of the pot stocks that rallied hard on the back of that news. another reason the stock is down, the company out today missing earnings and revenue estimates after reporting first quarter results this morning joining us now first on cnbc is tilray ceo irwin simon irwin, great to have you back. welcome. >> thank you, sara thank you. >> we have to start with the news out of president biden, which i don't know about you, but sort of came as a surprise certainly to the market, the pardons for possession and also the direction of the doj and department of health to look at how theyclassified marijuana how big of a deal is it, do you think? >> so it's a really big deal listen, getting any news out of the president, getting any news out of the white house is important. i think we all have been waiting for this and, you know, we have had lots of conversations out there with the senators, lots of conversations with certain congressmen and women, but to

hear the president come out and pardon those that were charged with crimes on a federal base and pardon them is a great step in the right direction for many reasons and, you know, what he's seeing, sara, is his constituents and their constituents out there want legalization to happen in cannibis and i think the thing is what's the right way to go about it that's what's important out there. that was something that was on the democrat platform two years ago and i think with the election coming up he knew he had to get something out there with the direction of which way they were going to go. so it's a real important, i think there's still a lot of wood to chop before we get to full legalization, but it's important to know what's on the agenda of the president where it has not been before. >> along with these pardons he complained on twitter that the united states classifies marijuana at the same level as heroine and more serious than fentanyl which he says makes no

sense. he's asking them to review the process of how it is scheduled under federal law. what would a change mean there, rescheduling marijuana for your business or for use? >> so i think rescheduling would be important to show it's not classified the same as a heroine or other harmful drugs i think, again, to step back and say over 60% of americans want cannibis legal leadsed, over 90% want it legalized from a medical standpoint there is a tremendous amount of research that says the effects of medical cannibis in regards to sleep, pain, anxiety, et cetera and just coming back and looking -- you know, over the last two days we have traded over 100 million shares today, we traded close to that yesterday. there is a lot of investors that want to see something happen here and that's what's important is, you know, institutions want to be investing in this without the safe bake act, i think it keeps some away, but i have to tell you the demand out there for cannibis is tremendous, there's

35 states that have legalization out there today, whether it's medical or recreational. so i think it's real important that the government comes out and takes some stand to get the confusion out of there. >> i wanted to ask you about canada because you did put out results today. while they were headline miss there was some improvement there on the -- on the loss, it was a little -- you're narrowing the loss talk to us about what's happening in the canadian market and your results. >> so, you know, i think we put out there pretty good results today from the standpoint $153 million, 165 -- 166 in constant currency, our margin was up in regards to our share was up 8.5% we are sitting $500 million of cash that has a strong balance sheet. the canadian market is the only country in the world where adult cannabis is legalized. we got the largest share, the

largest grow, 12 brands out there, our flowers, our drinks, our edibles. with that we're well-positioned, you know, once cannabis legalizes in the u.s. to come in here and make a major play because of our balance sheet and our know how in regards to europe we have a major grow facility in germany in portugal, we sell cannabis today in 20 different countries from a medical standpoint and, again, continuously do a lot of research tilray is well-positioned in the cannabis world and the name of our company is tilray brands. we have a great spirits business and great beer business and great wellness food business with adjacency to the cannibis business as we wait for cannabis to legalize in theu.s. >> we're just showing the dow chart because we aremaking new session lows right now, down 712 points it's just been an ugly downward slope for the market ever since the jobs -- >> what a great -- what a great day to do earnings, right? >> no kidding. so finally, irwin, you said when

cannabis gets legalized in the u.s. and you've been positioning and making acquisitions and clearly this is what the stock is trading on as well to a large extent i think you told me last time you expect it to happen within two years. are you revising that at all >> listen, i think, again, it's great to see that the president come out and taking some kind of stand but i think what's important is what tilray is doing, being a consumer-branned company focused on cannabis and products that consumers want a question asked to me what happens in a recession what happens with cannabis what happens with spirits? i think what's important out there and as consumers stay home they will enjoy their cannabis as more and more research comes out from a medical standpoint and with what we're doing in building out our infrastructure on a global basis and the potential of germany going legalized, you know, we are at a good place and with our balance

sheet today we have fixed debt out there, we have a strong balance sheet. tilray is in a good place. we narrowed our losses, our losses basically are just working capital within and, you know, i'm excited to see what's going on with tilray. >> irwin simon, keep us posted thank you very much for joining me today. >> thank you very much, sara >> ceo of tilray. let's get to our stealth mover today, it's a lay up madison square garden sports, a big winner on this big down day up 8%. the owner of the new york knicks and rangers announcing a one time catch dividend of $7 per share and $75 million stock buy back plan. executive chairman james dolan hoping the company will explore a sale of those teams which could be worth a combined $8 billion has been speculation on street for a while. we are sitting at session lows, the dow is down about 712 points right now as we head into the close, it's broad, the nasdaq is down even worse, you

are get another day with rising treasury yields and the stronger dollar which is not helping. reaction to jobs, perhaps. expectations about the fed there's now more than a 90% chance in the market that the fed does another jumbo rate hike next time. 75 basis points. let's bring in chief market strategist matt naily on the news line. i always turn to you on the technical. tell us which levels we should be watching as we sink into the close, the s&p now down 3% >> well, of course, those lows from last friday will be a key level because, you know, one of the elementary things technical analysis is when you make lower highs and lower lows if we make another lower low that will be a big concern if you get below 3600, that 3500 level could be reached very quickly, the one that everybody has been talking about recently. >> nasdaq down 4%. what is causing this big drop? is it just continued nervousness

about fed hikes? >> i think it's a combination here a lot of attention is going to the number -- the employment number this morning, the entire employment report, but you also have this situation where as advanced micro and samsung reported those poor earnings and poor guidance. so it's just raises that level of concern over earnings and the thing is we're not going to get any answer -- that uncertainty around earnings will last through next week because we are not going to get any answers until next friday and thereafter again, when uncertainty grows it's not good for the markets. >> what is expected now on earnings expectations have come down as the market and the economy have weakened a bit. >> well, when we talk about it, yes, everybody talks about that, but the actual numbers aren't come down all that much. the official numbers from the analysts >> still >> well, they're still looking for $223 i believe is the

consensus for this year anyway we know that if we go into recession every single recession since world war ii has seen earnings go down so if we only do 223 this year and we're lower next year, that means the market isn't anywhere near the fair value that some people think it is >> so you sometimes when we email back and forth you tell me which stock is the key right now to the market, which stock you would be watching, amd you spotlighted, samsung, fedex all with the warnings. any other ones you would be watching as far as key warnings? i mentioned tesla earlier it's been beaten up this would ex. >> that's always an important one to look at right now i'm looking at apple it seems all too obvious to look at that stock but one of the things is that people have been using that as kind of a safe haven right now. when we were -- people would talk about are we going to get capitulation, if people start dumping apple computer that will be a sign they are throwing in the towel. i know it will sound weird but maybe the best thing that could

happen at some point in the next week or two is apple gets hit hard, that will show capitulation is taking place and maybe we have a realistic of some sort of a near term bottom. >> you don't think it's done that apple is down 21% so far this year. >> yeah, but it's still well above its june highs unlike the rest of the market and i hate to say it but even whatever 21, 22 times earnings, this stock has bottomed in the mid teens in most bear markets before its bottomed on a valuation base he is, it's not as cheap as you usually see. the capitulation hasn't been there in this name. >> really good point thank you, matt maley for jumping on the news line. as we monitor the market the dow making new lows as we speak down 740 of the day i should say. check out the s&p 500 sector heat map, nowhere to hide in a day like today everything is lower. the best performing sector is energy down 1.2% that's because oil prices

continue to rise, they've marched higher to three-week highs this week. then you've got consumer discretionary at the bottom of the group along with communication services, materials, real estate, financials are having a tough day. a lot of these sectors down 3, even 4% almost for consumer discretionary. joining us now to talk about the state of the economy and the world is world bank president david mallpass >> hello, sara good to see you. >> joining us on a down day where the concern yet again is about the fed and just how aggressive it's going to be. we've got another pretty decent jobs report today, 3.5% unemployment, not too shabby. do you think there is a risk of the fed overdoing it on raising interest rates >> i think there are a number of problems, one is the oil prices keep going up. you know, the problems in the bond market as the short-term rates go up then the bond market feels that and then there are margin calls so that all circles

around and we have overhanging this the worry about growth, including in 2023 i think one of the concerns for us for the world bank and for development is this sense that the trends that are happening right now may continue into 2023 that means concerns about inflation but also about the rate hikes that you mention. you know, the central banks are maybe behind the curve clearly with inflation going up and being persistent. >> yes. >> and i think there's -- they have to use all of their tools same thing on the oil prices, there has -- the world has to be using all of its tools in order to change the direction. >> well, it's what the fed has been doing, right? i think now the question is whether they're doing too much or whether they're about to do too much i know you've been watching the spillover effects in places like emerging markets for the rest of the world.

it's got to be a concern >> well, they have to deal with the inflation problem and you're right, they're using all of their interest rate hike tool, but i think they have other tools as well. there's the financial regulatory policy, and this applies to the ecb and the bank of japan, you know, the global central banks are all in somewhat similar circumstances of inflation that's stubbornly high very importantly i think there has to be a focus on how the monetary policy and fiscal policies can help on the production side. the world needs more -- more goods being produced and more services being produced and especially in the u.s. there needs to be more -- more productivity, more workers, but also more output in order to meet the gap in world supply >> you know, the other by-product of all of this fed hiking is that the u.s. dollar continues to make new highs,

it's strong again today, up another half a percent, which is wreaking havoc on earnings from technology to pharmaceuticals to health care. any business here that does business abroad basically. you've watched the global impact of this. is it getting too strong for comfort where you would like to see maybe some type of action to fight it >> well, i would phrase it a little differently the weakness of the other currencies puts a pressure on u.s. earnings, but it also puts pressure on the fiscal policies for other countries. if they have debt that's dollar debt which many of the developing countries do, it is really ratcheting up the pressure on them not only are the global markets, bond markets closed to them, but the interest rates on their past debt are going up you know, we saw this a little bit in the late 1990s as the dollar got stronger and stronger the pressure built up in bond

markets, in global currencies and there was currency depreciation and devaluations in countries. i think of course this time is different, but we also see the pressure on debt service i put out, you know, we are okafor 2022 it looks like the poorest countries in the world, 75 poorest countries, the ida countries, will have to pay $44 billion in debt service or that's what they're being expected to pay by world markets. that's just a very difficult situation because the dollar is so strong. >> right right. i know there are calls from you and the imf to forgive that and make it a little bit easier. so how close are we to a global recession, do you think? >> well, i think the risks are going up we're looking at our forecast, in june we did one set of forecasts but now if we redo them today we would be 1.1% lower than we were in june and that would put world growth at just 1.9%.

when you figure there's population growth inside of that, you need that just to stay even and so i think we're at the point of having to worry about there being world recession in 2023 on the -- on the current trajectory our base case is we're a little bit above a, quote, recession, but still way too weak for the developing countries >> david malpass, thank you for joining us today. >> nice to see you >> with so many of the concerns of the market right now, global. let's get back to mike santelli for more on the selloff. what are you watching? >> it's deepening and it's doing so in this kind of relentless way, it's not really in any hurry to go down, it's just been sagging all afternoon. we are also going back own to fair bit as we hit new lows. about 1% in the s&p above that low from last friday, which is the low for this year, but here is a two-year chart of the nasdaq 100 you are back right around this

level, that was the very end of october 2020 so right before the presidential election, there actually had been a big rush to a new high in september of 2020, if you remember that, that was the kind of pandemic recovery rush, then we had a big selloff this is the bottom of that correction that proceeded the election rally for the overall market one of the themes that's been hitting all year is that the biggest stocks, the growthiest stocks that dominated the market to the upside last year have been the source of the greatest down side pressure this year the average stock in the s&p 500 continues to outperform the market cap weighted one, it's sort of a -- not exactly so much comfort because many people do own the biggest stocks and own the indexes, but it is still a factor here in weighing something like the nasdaq 100, that's where the valuation excess was and all the rest of it, the yield effect on long duration assets. certainly a piece of it if not the entire story but the s&p 500 you're still up on a two-year basis this is one

of those very kind of loose rules that i always keep in mind when the market has kind of done a two-year-round trip, has gone nowhere over that span in time in recent years that has been a decent spot where stocks tried to find some traction, although those were not at the end of prolonged bear markets it was more in those flash declines like we saw in late 2018, early 2016. >> whenever we have these really rough days one way that bulls can look for silver lining is figure out whether this is capitulation, whether it's just a puke as you have said before make maley joined us and said look at apple as a key e for instance, if we get below some of the -- i think -- it hasn't basically gone below its highs if it goes below a geun-hye -- >> the june low. >> the june low i mean, that could be a sign that the market is throwing in the towel there what other signs should we be looking for if we are looking for some sort of indication that enough is enough >> that's part of the process and people have been pointing out that some of those stocks

that had held up better, a lot of retail money is in and that are perceived safe havens have been giving way. utilities, they are at a new high a few weeks ago they've been crushed, real estate, things like that i would say it's part of the process. i think it's wrong for us to look at it as a moment that we're waiting for. the whole bottoming process once you've been going down for nine months in a row and you have had these waves of selling i think we've gone in the process of slowly getting more sold out, you have big investors, have very defensive positioning right now, if i look at the systematic momentum driven hedge funds the ones that really do just chase the movement they have extremely low exposures to stocks right now, similar to the bottom of the covid crash. that alone doesn't mean that the overall market has capitulated but you are looking for things like massive lopsided down side volume relative to upside. we saw that in june. it's sort of in the eye of the beholder and has to be confirmed by the nature of any rally that follows it. >> hard to believe we are actually still higher for the

week but we are giving a lot of that back right now, the s&p 500 down 3.3% for the week we are still, as i mentioned, higher by about 1% or so on the s&p. thanks to that strong rally we had on monday and tuesday. often the strongest rallies, though, do come in the middle of the bear market. today the concern the stronger jobs report giving the fed leeway to raise interest rates more, plus corporate warnings from amd, samsung, fedex and others look at the fintech stocks they are getting crushed. kate rooney, what are you watching >> share ration that's right, these names have been rate sensitive, among the hardest hit names and group overall, take a look at shares of coin base, that's one of the worst performers today, also getting hit by lower bitcoin and crypto prices, down more than 10% you have also got a firm, again, a very high growth, the big winners in the pandemic off more than 10% block, jack dorsey's company formerly square down more than 7%, getting hit by some of those

bitcoin headwinds. you have sofi down about 5%, paypal down more than 4% robinhood down roughly 3%. arc down more than 5% as well as some of the bitcoin mining names down double documents, marathon digital off 15%, you've also got core scientific off about 14%. they get hit by hire yer rates ben borrowing costs go up, we also have bitcoin below 20,000 today. rates have been the big story and wall street has been worried about the low end consumer what higher rates and potential recession would mean for the low end consumer and you also have the credit risk. buy now pay later firms like affirm which is a leader have been hit, they haven't lived through this type of consumer slowdown although we haven't seen any sort of uptick in delinquencies this earning season is going to be big for the fintech names.

>> i had forgotten that cath kwlee wood had a fintech-specific etf i'm looking at the arc innovation down 6.6% which brings it down to 70% off its highs. i manage inn that the fintech one has done even worse. >> absolutely. let's see, it's underperforming today, the innovation etf down 6% actually fintech is doing slightly better than the innovation etf, but she's been really bullish on some of those names, square and just bitcoin in general and that long-term innovation disruptive trade and she's got that fintech etf and also a long-term believer in bitcoin, although she did ditch paypal last year, about six months ago, and paypal has been an outperformer. that was in hindsight at least in the short term trade not the best move. >> okay. yeah, down 90% almost in 12 months that fintech innovation fund let's talk with gene munster of luke ventures gene, tech is in the cross

hairs. it has been before we we had these rate worries, but the wrinkle to the new wrinkle today is we got warnings from amd and from samsung leading to some real concerns about pc demand, memory chip demand what did you make of some of those warnings >> i was actually glad to hear it in the sense that, you know, we've been bracing for this pull back and we're starting to actually see it in the fundamentals so there is a piece to waiting for the impact of what's been going on in the global economy, want to go see that, the fear of the unknown, the unknown is starting to become known there is a side of that that was a little bit of a relief for me. then my attention immediately swings over to which companies that are going to be impacted, which are the next ones to have headlines that come out. i think a lot about apple, we do a lot of work on apple and i immediately went and checked what the lead times were it's kind of a blunt instrument to try to get a sense of what

demand is like as of today eight done threes it's still four weeks out for the pro models and this is uncharacteristically high lead times which is if you are going to lean to one side or the other this is a sign that demand is favorable which is a little bit perplexing given all the negativity that we're talking about and just to kind of finish off the thought, a four-week lead time for iphones, this is the pro models now, this far after, three weeks after a launch is usually typically we're down to a week at that point. so uncharactersist clee high lead times you can blame the supply chain and say that that's the reason -- >> that's what i was going to ask. if it was a shortage of the product. >> there probably is some of that lead time that is within that, but i would guess that that's maybe a week of that, even if you factor that in the reason why i don't think it's the majority of it is apple

has done a good job over the past year and a half in terms of navigating some of these supply issues, i suspect that they are continuing to do that. so when we put all this together, all the negative news in tech, my first reaction is to do something which no one is doing right now which is to try to focus on the fundamentals the reason why no one is doing that it's understandable is that the market just keeps saying we don't want to hear about the fundamentals >> or we're being blind-sided because amd put out preliminary results saying they're going to miss their draft by a billion dollars. that's fundamental. >> my point is that there are companies that this is going to impact a lot of companies. every company will have some form of an impact, not just a lot of companies, every company will have an impact by what's going on here, the request he is what is the magnitude of the impact and -- and which companies have not been -- have investors not factored that in and if i can just jump to that

topic of we were going to see some of this in the fundamentals and how do you play this through? the market is obsessed with finding the bottom, what's the bottom, how close arewe to that, what's the curve of that look like? i just soak in -- just the last 20 minutes of your program, it's pretty negative out there and not to say that today is the bottom, i mentioned we are still a third in cash, but i suspect that in the weeks ahead we will be buying, especially some of these ones that are highly shorted and been down 75% year to date. >> like what give us one name >> a name like -- i'm not saying we are going to be buying this company, but just to give you a sense about some names, names like zillow or coin base or unity, peloton these are the types of companies that at least for a trade want to draw a line between trading and investing, a trade perspective, 12% average short average, that's pushing down on the spring pretty hard and you

get any sort of not as bad news as we thought and she could be up 30% over a couple of months so i still think that there is -- there's more optimism in all the negativity today if you have a view to look in the 2023. >> the ones everyone hates right now. gene, thank you. gene munster, appreciate you jumping on the phone with strategy from loup ventures. we are going straight into the "closing bell" market zone, commercial free for you. mike santelli is here to break down the kmushl moments, plus steve kovac is back on amd what we heard from the chip maker and jill perry hall on the small caps it has been a deterioration for this final hour. it's been dramatic in terms of the magnitude of the sell. there's the dow, down 637 points, doesn't tell quite the full picture of what's happening right now because if you look at the s&p with every sector lower and some sectors down by more than 3%, 3.6% for consumer

discretionary, for instance, then there is the nasdaq down 4% right now. what message are you getting, mike, from this continued selloff after a few up days that were looking pretty optimistic earlier this week when the market thought maybe the fed is going to pare it back. >> there is no daylight in any direction in terms of the major things investors are looking at as a signal for when they can get in there and be the c contrarian and that has come in the form of obviously a very strong labor market. it may or may not be the right thing for the fed to be focusing on but they've told you that's at least part of it. that doesn't help, therefore, you have to bake in three quarters of a percentage point another hike in november, probably more after that so no relief there oil going up, also feeds into that sort of inflation story, the top line inflation expectations, and that doesn't help as well so you still are caught in this same squeeze, i think we've been for a while. earnings, everyone acknowledges that they're probably some vulnerability there.

estimates have absolutely been coming down for this quarter and next quarter outside of energy, but the question is is it enough is it priced in? markets seem like they are at fair value not at super cheap. the only bet that people are making is we've had these ugly fridays before, we had one a week ago, monday ripped higher, i'm not saying it's going to happen but the point is you have twitchy moves in both directions and it's really still in that situation as we find ourselves much of this year that positioning and sentiment are the only real tail winds that you have if you want to be bullish as opposed to feeling as if the fundamentals or the macro story are cooperating just yet. >> which is not great to hang your half off of positioning and sentiment. can clearly lead to short term rallies. we have been trading a lot around this whole idea of whether the fed pivots then these corporate warnings, look at fedex shares, fedex is down under pressure although coming back from the worst levels reuters reporting that the company expects to lower its

volume forecast for its ground division due to fewer holiday packages they cited an internal memo. the company telling cnbc in a statement as described in fedex corporation's recent first quarter earnings release, weakening macro economic conditions are causing softness. they gave a bleak warning in september and withdrew the full year guidance. we are watching shares of u.p.s. those are down worse than fedex. joining us for more is helane becker you have news of lower holiday volumes which the company did not deny in a statement to us. where does that line up with market expectations? >> exactly so i think that what we're seeing is the consumer keeping their wallets in their pockets, as you guys have been reporting, a shift from goods to services and remember these guys talked about doing 2025 volumes back in

2021, so we had been thinking growth would slow anyway and it's just slowing maybe more than they expected but also they've built a lot of capacity out and now they're in an overcapacity situation. so i think you've got those two things coming together right at the holiday season when a lot of people are continuing to be concerned about supply chain issues so they've decided to buy early and i think that's part of the issue, too i'm sorry? >> no. no that exact point was what i was going to ask you about u.p.s. and whether it's a better bet related to how they managed capacity and supply chain and whether they are going to give as much back as fedex is having to. >> yeah, so i think for both of them and for u.p.s. as well what you've seen there is different in the way they've managed the

macro this year. they've spent most of the year telling us that things were slowing and they prepared for that and they haven't invested quite as heavily as fedex. i've always thought of fedex investing to stay ahead of growth while u.p.s. has always invested to catch up to growth i don't think that has changed i just think they've managed it a little bit differently and also remember u.p.s. has, i guess, frozen is the right word the amount of volume they're willing to take from amazon. it's 11% of their revenue and over time that's going to drop as they focus on higher margin businesses, which fedex is not really doing right now, fedex is more on the e-commerce side. >> so it sounds like you like it better, bottom line of the two. >> yes yes. i guess that's right >> all right helane becker, thank you for joining us on that fedex news. that stock down only 1% but it

has been beaten down pretty hard lately then there's amd which is plunging after slashing the third quarter sales outlook by more than a billion dollars. steve, how much of this guidance cut has to do with pc demand which is of course the concern rippling across the industry right now. >> that's right, sara. a lot of it is pc demand, some of it the enterprise, but, look, if you were paying attention you would have known about this back in the summer. microsoft warned back in june like i told you earlier this hour that, look, deteriorating pc demand began in june but we had these chip makers telling us, look, people are going to keep buying pcs forever, but we had so much pull forward demand in the first two years of the pandemic, sara, you saw apple posting record mac revenues for almost eight straight quarters, practically the entire beginning of the pandemic, that is starting to pull back as people realize they don't need to upgrade their devices every couple years even in this hybrid work environment i want to point out something

bofa put out this morning after we saw this downfall they say, quote, the pc market has been weak but continues to surprise the companies themselves by blowing their guides to the down side and they're calling ogt specifically nvidia, inn tell, micron as the culprits here, all names we are seeing fall today. the pull forward demand we knew that was there, we knew demand was deteriorating in the pc market four, five months ago and now we're seeing the symptoms of all of those factors coming together right now so that's the trouble we're in now. at the same time we've still got the end of the year to get through, a lot of new hardware came out google had their big smartphone event yesterday, apple put out the iphone14 started selling i three or four weeks ago and we're going to get maybe even more from apple later. look, we've got to see what demand looks like through the rest of the year but they are flashing the warning signs now finally that the consumer is deciding we don't need to buy new pcs every couple years.

>> steve kovac, thank you. mike santelli, makes it hard to figure out what the message is from a lot of these earnings losers and these earnings warners. semiconductors were at the heart of the supply chain crisis, so they ordered everything, it's all coming in and demand isn't that strong. same thing happened with nike, it wasn't a read on consumer demand why they missed the quarter so much it was that they were stuck with too much inventory and they have to unload it at cheaper prices. it makes it hard to tell if the consumer is weakening like a recession or if just these companies are in crazy positions from hoarding everything. >> it's almost like a decent short-cut to figuring out who is going to be most effected is how well did you do during the pandemic or how much of a demand rush did you have to contend with and therefore try to satisfy with extra ordering in the aftermath. that's -- that semis, nike qualifies in that direction, obviously a lot of the pure pandemic stocks. >> and meta.

>> the shift to -- >> and fedex is a great example. as well, by the way, we could be seeing something similar in travel related because there was that huge rush for people to get out there and it was pent up demand for travel and those stocks are telling you that's not going to carry forward. >> demand and supply were totally out of whack and it's hard to figure out where this equilibrium is and what it says about demand cvs another big loser today following a report that the company is in exclusive talks to acquire pano health. cvs getting hit by a ratings hit to its extremely profitable medicare advantage business. bertha coombs, big move for cvs. reached a deal to acquire signify a month ago. what can you tell us about the deal strategy here >> it's one of those things carol lynch has said they feel an urgency to do deals here, to build up their value-based care proposition, that is they want to make sure they have more primary care, they missed out on that when amazon got one

medical, they got the home care with signify and now it appears although both companies are not commenting on the reports that they may be close to a deal for cono health which would give them primary care that is really focused on medicare advantage members. >> got it. bertha, thank you very much. cano shares up 8.5% on that report bertha coombs. mike, back to you on the broader market because looks like we're going to go out near the lows of the day if not the lows of the day. s&p 500 down almost 3%, still higher for the week. nasdaq comp almost at the flat line for the week, down 3.8%, continue to make highs on treasury yields. what is the thing you are watching when you -- when you look at the futures sunday night, for instance, or monday morning because whenever we have ugly spills like this it's always lots of doom and gloom reports over the weekend what will you be watching? >> without a doubt doom and gloom reports. first of all, are we going to

have to react to anything newswise over the weekend. it seems like we are bracing for something, oil up the way it is. keep in mind, too, bond market is closed on monday, it is a bank holiday in some areas, a new york bank holiday and therefore it will be a little different without the guidance necessarily of the bond market in a direct way. it's a washout conditions for the moment, again, in the short term the s&p 500 obviously down significantly here pretty much just at those june lows, june extra day lows and the new york stock exchange volumes about 90% to the down side interesting the ten year treasury yield is not back up to 4%, it's pretty much, you know, at the precipice of it so you're still a little bit below the highs as the stock market is a little bit above the lows. the two year is the one where more of the action is taking place 4.3 pretty much at the highs baking in what's happening with the fed expectations. the volatility index i have to say you would argue it's underreacting up less than a

point. why is that? because it was already clenched up going into the jobs number and we are still for better or worse who knows for how long still in this trading range we haven't made a new low and we have a weekend coming up and that often does deplete the vix on the way in. >> about 1.5% off the lows for the s&p 500 at this point, the june lows that we all talk b mike, thank you. we will let you get set up for overtime at the top of the hour. look forward to that discussion. we have a couple minutes left in the trading week let's bring in jill kerry hall the head of bank of america securities i was interested to talk to you because this week small caps showed signs of life and even with the big fall today 3% they are up 2.25% for the week, the biggest winner of the four major averages why do you think that is >> i think, you know, we've obviously seen as mike and helana were mentioning earlier support of trends for small companies, services holding up better than goods is something

we've been highlighting that should be supportive for small companies. near term we have expected this to be a voluntarily time market, s&p 500 year-end market has been 3600, we're obviously a lot closer to that, we think things could continue to stay choppy. but for small companies as we've been pointing out we've been commenting how cheap they've looked for a while, now they look even cheaper. as we think about recession, small companies are trading at 11 times forward earnings. the ism manufacturing index has been a very correlated indicator with small caps, a very important one for performance. when you look at what small caps are pricing in, they're now discounting an ism level of about 30 so that's, you know, pretty much the lowest the ism has ever troughed if you look back to the 1970s, early '80s recessions, the average for the last four recessions ism trough was more like 39. we really think the index is pricing in kind of a worse case scenario at this point in terms

of recessionary multiples and you have seen the index start to outperform even amid the weak market so really small caps have been doing well relative to large caps, you know, choppy but roughly since may. so we think the outperformance could continue. >> maybe on that valuation gap that you've cited within small caps, jill, what's your strategy, which sectors do you like best? >> so i think, you know, you still want to stick with quality, quality tends to do well in volatile market. if we go into a downturn sticking with stocks within small caps that have earnings rather than no earnings, the s&p 600 small cap index, much higher quality than the russell 2000 fewer stocks with no earnings, that index has been outperforming this year. stick with stocks that have helped free cash flow, that's a value strategy that tends to work well in these types of market environments. energy still looks good across our work, you know, very cheap

underowned, commodity prices staying higher for longer. so those are areas that we think look well within small caps. health care has still been a riskier area, it's deteriorated in quality so health care looks a lot better in our large cap than our small cap. >> got it. jill kerry hall, small caps are better says jill kerry hall who covers the small caps for bank of america we appreciate it. thanks very much as we go into the close i want to show you what's happening we are going to go out near the lows of the session, down 600 points or so on the dow, the s&p 500 has got every sector lower at the moment, energy faring the best, oil prices have been rising lately, consumer discretionary the worst performing sector. communication services, for instance, actually technology is now the worst. information technology down more than 4% and that's thanks in part to the big drop that we're seeing in amd which is down 14% on the close dragging all the chip makers, look at nvidia down 8% or so we're still going to get a gain

for the week which is crazy after a day like today, doesn't feel that way, but we are still higher for the week and faring for our best week since june 24th the nasdaq a decline of almost 4% on the week, it is city higher, first positive one in four and the small caps down almost 3%. that's it for me on "closing bell." i will see you next week into overtime with mike santelli >> welcome to overtime i'm mike santoli. you just heard the bells, we are just getting start add the post 9. we will speak with liz ann sonders, her expert take on today's market drop and what she's recommending to clients moving forward we start with our talk of the tape a brutal end to a roller coaster week, stocks selling off in a big way today with all three major averages finishing deep in the red. with he see the s&p 500 finishing down 2.8%, tech the epicente