>> brian, great piece. appreciate you talking about it with us. thank you very much. >> thank you. >> you can read brian's full reporting at cnbc.com. tough day. s&p down 2.8%. good news on main street, bad news on wall street. for the week s&p did manage to be up about 1.5% bond market closed monday. keep that in mind. that does it for "overtime". "fast money" begins right now. >> a major friday fade strong jobs report fears the fed will have to keep its foot on the rate hiking pedal. plus, earnings season kicks off next week from banks to airlines to health care, we'll ask the traders, what's the one name they're watching ahead of the report later, our chart of the week them one's got us in a disco '70s mood. hasn't seen these profits since

fredo, al green, and michael coreleon we start off with a sharp sell-off on wall street, the s&p dropping nearly 3% the dow down as many as 487 point at its lows. the nasdaq coming within -- of going negative for the week. treasury yields rising in reaction with the two-year yield approaching highs not seen since 2007 as we get ready for the kickoff for burning season next week, fedex reportedly expecting lower volumes in its ground division as customers ship fewer packages as we stand on the edge of earning season, should we expect for head winds ahead not too bad action for fedex down half a percent. >> half a percent is a great day. they're celebrating in tennessee, i think

i think this was telegraphed -- kwn if it was ten days ago or whatever, when raj the ceo was on with kramer and talking about worldwide recession. so i think that this was sort of already priced in. one interesting thing about fedex -- >> i was going to be more optimistic about the whole thing, and you know that's not my disposition but i'm trying hard you made the point this is going to be the season where there's bad news and stocks will go down again and again on the same news when i heard the fedex warning i thought, is fedex going to go down on the same kind of news? and it didn't some isn't that positive, courtney >> right, yeah, that's true. we did already do that it's similar to what happened with a&d we're seeing a slow down with pcs. it's going down on the same news the bigger story is the fact

that we got this really positive jobs report, which means the fed is likely going to continue at their rate hike. that's likely what's going to continue the economy, because what they need to see a slowdown in the unemployment rate until we see that i think you're going continue to see the up and down volatile periods. it is going to lead to opportunities. make sure you are positioning yourself as a longer term investor. >> i thought the price action today in the market was terrible the jobs report was not that bad. almost on the screws unemployment at 3.5, which bring you back to multidecade lows i get it we talked on the show just two days ago, what if we get the 5% unemployment these numbers aren't bad the underperformance of the market is telling. >> when you're saying not that bad, in the that good? >> the numbers wither not that strong so the fed with you any different before the end of the day. earnings were flat, sideways

we've seen a peak on the most difficult part of the labor numbers. if you look at where the numbers are, we're having a dog fight on june lows. this is a day, i think you set the stage to trade lower monday. i don't think the earnings we have next week are going to save us first of all. we're going to talk about specific names as karen pointed out, the fedex numbers very much in the price if i look at some of the broader transports i like the rails and i look at them trading at a much bigger discount to the s&p than they did even during the great financial crisis, so i think there are some opportunities out there. but i think equity told you the story. they're going lower and the fact that some people are holding out hope of 50 bases points we're going 75 the best news is terminal rates and fed fund futures, even what the fed ald told us six or seven times is i think four and four and a half and probably four and a half and maybe 4.75 is the

peak on fed fund's rate. people want a pivot. no, you're not going to get a pivot in term of fed cutting you get to the place where you're this going to have to hold the line, we're closer than you think. today's job number didn't do anything one way or the other, in my view, even though the market responded poorly. >> very different reactions to what they had talk about in term of what they're seeing in their businesses it still reinforces this idea that so close to earning season companies are coming out and say, things are not getting better there's no hope you're going to have earnings season and there's a surprise to the upside maybe for some companies but there's to fear. the question is how we risk in terms of how far we've come down in pe to account for the unknown downside. >> i think tim said it -- the market is that the market wants to go lower, should go lower i keep coming back to crush

demand i think the fed -- we know the fed wants to crush demand. he hasn't crushed demand yet they haven't crushed demand yet. when we see these numbers, half of me says, wow, that's pretty impressive with everything that's going on, that we're looking down the barrel of a recession, that these numbers are this good. the other half says, why don't we all wake up and say, the market probably has to trade down 10% or 15% lower in the s&p to "crush demand"? i don't know what you could buy to be honest with you, other than go to cash at this point or just on a relative basis. >> let's clarify that, though. if your time frame is six months, i can see how you might say, i don't know what to buy. if your time frame is five years it changes the story, right? or does it i don't know. >> yeah, it does change the story dramatically and i'm glad you brought me back

there. so, this show could be a fast trading episode, right it is called "fast money." i think we're in the natural stage here we're look for earnings to start breaking down. we're looking for margins to compress, but then i'm looking for the midterm elections to spark the market into the year end. so there's a lot that has to happen really, really quickly in the next month, and i think you're going to see this in rapid fire you're going see these companies come out with earnings that are not impressive, and you're going to see the market gear up if we have change of leadership, because markets like -- and then rip roaring rally going into the year end then it's going to take hold again. buy anything five years down the road, you're going to look good. right now, flip hire and leveling out and you can see the market settle in. >> i want the touch on one thing

tim said about the pivot that maybe helped the market this week there was no evidence that the fed had any intention -- they had hawks on parade. right? they had everybody out as hawkish as they could be we get to this point again, we're down on the same news while the fed's hawkish, and yet that was enough for a pretty big sell-off today this ain't news again. >> right, and look, the economy, from all measures i can see, is doing so much better than people expected it to, which means if anything, i think it's going to react the other way a lot faster i don't think we've at all seen anything from the fed hikes here look at retail and consumer spending it's really holding up the strength in the labor markets is a surprise. that i think is catching some economists offguard, but it's not catching the market offguard if anything, this is the dynamic here i look at this week and i think people had a lot of geopolitics to di jest oil came storming back

that's not a good sign until rates or dollar stop going higher, we don't have problems for the market. >> the idea we need to see a lighter labor force is going to help the markets in general. but certain part of the market are going to be accept differently. if you take a look at the jobs numbers that just came out, you look underneath and saw things like health care and leisure cannot hire you have layoffs are in silicon valley. that leads to areas where you have opportunity there are a lot of places that are strong and are going to hold better we look at the data, the labor numbers, that's exactly what you're seeing. i think you want to extrapolate that out further. >> big banks kick ig things off. what are the top name or traders are watching for this quarter? karen, i think i know where you're going. >> j.p. morgan, my biggest bank position is bank of america, but j.p. morgan does report next week

they kick earnings awesome we know there's going to be a noisy quarter. net interest income, margins should improve dramatically. we know the informs ms. president bank,ing part of the should be terrible, absolutely terrible, particularly year over year with the sp ark c frenzy. we moe it's going to be terrible then the other parts are credit. how is the consumer holding up are they seeing any loan losses? any tick of that anything that will be interesting auto loans as well i still think it's early to see problems there as well then, always want to hear jamie's view on the economy. what is he seeing? that's important to me as well the stock's obviously down a lot. hasn't been at this level in term of p.e. fine with the yield. i mean, it's cheap. >> we were talking at macy's having avoided the inventory problem because the data on their credit card shows weakness and softening early on in the yore you have to wonder, when does

that get seen in other places, right? in terms of the consumer maybe never. if it was big enough for macy's to acknowledge, it would be broader. courtney >> first that came to my mind, j.p. morgan. i think easily went you look at banks and earning, they're a good bell weather and have a good sense for the consumer. that's what i'm looking for is which companies give you a why of the he'll of the consumer we're a few we can away, but the other thing i want to look at is the retailers. you just hit on macy's they're that discretionary spending are people going out and doing this one particular name is nordstrom. why i think they're going to be important to watch is they are a big department store, have higher income earners but also have the rack, which is in competition with, like, t.j. maxx, and they have a good online presence. this isn't just, are people going to department stores

they have a good idea of the retail in general. >> steve grasso. >> hmm that's it? okay >> what are you watching we are within the segment of, what company you're watching this earnings season. >> usually you set it up for me. i get it you already set it up. financials are what i'm looking at, wells fargo specifically they have been the underperformer different story than j.p. morgan but i don't see any reason why these financials should give us anything we went from a year ago, quarter talk about release of loan loss reserves now we're going to be talk about provisions for credit losses one's a head wind. thee other is a tail wind. earnings are going to be down. revenues, maybe they could squeeze out positive revenues. but i want to hear what they're saying as to see where they think the economy is is and where they think the consumers are. >> tim seymour, what name are

you watching this week >> hi, mel, yes, i'm on "fast money," and i'm. watching walgreens next thursday it's a much simpler story than the banks. walgreens pivot into health care makes a lot of sense there's major cost they're being brought down by people like rite aid i'm on the stock and it's been frustrating thele trailing p.e. is 5.5 wall ggreens to me is a place i think you can get behind. coming up earthquake a stock that's had its best week since a gallon of gas cost 85 cents and guy was playing little league. it's a long time ago. first, move over bears, there are nebus w llin town. we got those trades next you're watching "fast money" from times square.

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welcome back to "fast money. markets losing much momentum in the back-of the week are there opportunities in the

sell-off names seem to be setting off the turnaround carter, we always invoke your phrase, so bad it's good, and i think that's what you're focusing on today. >> in this instance, a similar circumstance -- they were so bad it's good, but these instance they've based. before we look at the charts, we have a table i think this will put it in context. these are three stocks and you'll see their correlations are very high. just look at that, marvel at that to have a three-month performance of plus 20% across the board versus the s&p guess what else they have in common each have an 80% value from the peak these were the worst performers that have all based and are now exhibiting certain characteristics that imply important relative strength. let's look at the charts they're virtually identity calm the first is a comparative chart. you can't tell the difference between those three lines.

pins has nothing to do with paypal, which has has nothing to do with netflix. three-ier chart. direct overlay again we see they're basing and bottoming. quickly, let's go through the three charts individually. first, pinterest all the elements of a bearish to bullish reversal lost 81% of its value. now up 20% over the past three months look at paypal lost 78% of its value. these things are three times the s&p loss, and yet what is it doing? it's also basing and bottoming and then finally netflix lost 77% of its value. again, almost 3x the loss of the s&p on the way down. and now the word developmental comes to mind. incremental, curing, healing, nascent, bottoming out formations. >> carter, thank you see you in a bit on "options action." steve grasso, which one do you

like shall i recap the stocks for you? pinterest, netflix, paypal >> no, this is perfect. >> i'm blushing now. >> netflix is the first one i saw basing where we got down to levels that were way lower than pandemic levels, so this one was way overdone pinterest, i always look at these for momentum look at three months, one month, schee see which stocks have the momentum the sell side starts to upgrade these stocks all money is harder to make when you want to talk about an apple. when you want to talk antibiotic pinterest, down 80, up 20, the real beta chase is on these underperformers. i agree with his premise i'd go with netflix. >> i agree good to see carter so bulled up like that. >> excitement was palpable. >> i ran into him on the street the other day. that was fun, actually, seeing

carter out and about in the wild i agree, netflix it is so far down. 80 -- a little less percent. however, that's not why i like it i like it because obviously there is a catalyst there in the change of their model or the addition of the ad supported model, and relatively low to netflix. >> the other thick he could have pointed out is they're all profitable, too. let me add to the netflix story, the dynamic is no longer about slow or no sub growth. it's about ad supported and paid sharing and i'll look forward to what that could mean in '23. we've gotten sentiment wise through a difficult period after the first downgrade, the first bad subs number, that was almost six months ago. everybody said, it's going to take a few quarters. it's been a few reqquarters

i like that story. paypal, story on valuation i look at them themselves. this is a company that's profitable and focus globally and doing better. up next, our chart of the week which stock almost clocked since -- i hope guy's watching. throughout hispanic heritage month we're celebrating our teammates and contributors here's the president of kraft heinz north america. >> we are very much a passionate people who care deeply and celebrate loudly so i think when you're with us, you'll get to see the world with a new tapestry of colors you have never seen before the reality is that we are entrenched in the fabric of america. you may know the sound of bad bunny and j.lo and you may know the food of mexico, puerto rico, and brazil, and we're all that but we're also in congress and

the supreme court, and we are nobel laureates and we are scientists and when you talk about the story of america, many of those voices are going to have a spanish accent

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welcome back to "fast money. break out the bell bottoms and disco music and rewind a 1974. that was the year richard nixon resign after watergate, "sanford and son" ruled the small screen, gi joe with the kung fu grip ruled shelves. it was also when exxon mobil shares put in their best week

ever, jumping more than 17% in october. the ail major just beating that record close out the week with a gain of almost 16% close to it. it was a good excuse to play disco music. i tim, i know you have bell bottoms somewhere. >> trying to think of songs from 1974 hooked on a feeling is one of them, by blue suede. i also remember a show not in the '70s feels like we have been on since the '70s, but it was 2000 when exxon was kicked out of the dow. it is not surprising if you look back, that was probably the time to buy it. the sentiment was so low this was a company that was threatening or about the cut the dividend, a company in a world where oil was on the skids they're buying back debt, dividend is secured, it's a company that's not spending at all costs in places like the arctic circle or russia and i think is focused much more on

profitable businesses. you heard me say all the time and what we saw with energy stocks is they're responding differently than they did in the first two an a three waves of understood lying price of oil. while oil is struggling, 1t 100 day and 300 day for big oils is where they're going. i think you say there. the energy remains way too low. >> that gas is helping them. remember back, i think it was the same time period when you said sentiment is so low that's when they made the acquisition. >> $50 billion something. >> now lack at it. courtney >> i want to echo that we have been optimist, on energy, and i think you want to continue to have that exposure this is my final trade on wednesday when i was here. you do want to make sure you're owning these, especially right now, where energy prices are going up but to tim's point, their break even is so much lower. only $45, $50 a bear so yes, i'm optimist, here >> time for the final trade.

steve grasso, full-time trade time time to give your final trade. >> nexgen. don't sleep on this stock. >> abba in 1974 with waterloo. csx could be hauling around a lot of abba cds. >> courtney? >> oogachaka my only along that was up toy,da kenna health. >> see you monday at 5:00. >> meantime, don't go anywhere optings action is up next.

welcome the friday i'm melissa lee. the markets tumble today after better than predicted jobs picture left the market worrying the fed will keep the pedal to the metal. we may see it in earnings next we can with the bank bhiel the fed impact is one thing, it's amplified in small caps there are ways to dampen the noise with options first, before