details ahead. china's chip sector getting rocked as they deal with surging geopolitical risk. the names you need to watch. it is monday, october 10th the themes of october are coming it's 2022. "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm rebecca quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. if you want to look at the u.s. equities at this hour as joe mentioned, the picture has improved the dow in positive territory. up 6 points. s&p futures down 3 nasdaq down 16 it comes after a really rough

volatile week for the markets. dow was down 2% on friday alone. s&p dropped 2.8% nasdaq down by 3.8%. all of that happening on friday. still for the week, all three indices closed higher. this was the first positive week in the last four remember, the first two days of the trading week were incredibly strong then you had the left of the week watching the tape. volatility is moving quickly we had an incredible number of moves of 1% for the s&p 500. the most we have seen since april of 2020. that tells you the volatility. the vix is not sky rocketing that tells you how much movement we have with the markets the treasury market. you will see yields. bond market is closed for columbus day and indigenous people's day for the 2-year treasury, it is 4 4.312%. we have breaking news. big news

normally not a person who necessarily would be our audience, but former fed chairman ben bernancke, one of the winners of the 2022 nobel prize for economics. bernancke along with professor douglas diamond and phillip divig were awarded the nobel prize. the committee saying research has improved the understanding of the role of banks in the economy. i know there is always debate over these various prizes. this one, i think, will cause one of the biggest there is debate since 2008 about how the fed reacted and how the fed reacts to crises wed that situation this most recent pandemic crisis which is a different crisis, but i would argue, as you know and arguing since 2008 that the fed did it right. better than anybody could have imagined there were the haters. anti-wall street inc i always thought with great

perspective, people would turn around and say this was actually done as close as possible. did you stay too long in 2008? >> we're dealing with this now the last chapter is not written on the roach motel that we checked in and can't get out of. the last chapter is not written. i'm hopeful we can extricate ourselves. who would you think ushered in the easing era money it is probably bernancke and followed by yellen to some extent we are still trying to dig out of the $6 trillion balance sheet up from a couple hundred billion? >> go ahead. >> the only thing is the problem with people who say they shouldnshould n't have done it, you should let it rip and instead of find way to move out of it and ease the pain

>> it might land in jay powell's lap actually it may have been -- people say all the way up to mid pandemic, we needed to stay where we were. bernancke might -- i will say one thing that nobel prize, you know what else -- i tell you this all the time on the way down driving down what's the road i-95 you know what he previously had? the bernancke interchange in south carolina a little place with exits and bridges and overpasses there's a sign the ben bernancke interchange. he's from south carolina i think that's better. although i would love an interchange or if you pay enough for a quarter mile, pick up the trash. >> the new jersey rest areas. >> or a rest area. i don't want named after me. with what goes on there. >> with the roach motel idea

i only argue that existed because we got into a second cr crisis >> yeah. >> the pandemic. >> that may land in jay powell's lap. >> had that happened, i don't know if we had the same conversation we would have some conversation if this persisted and went on too long. >> it will never been a perfect example where you can say this happened and we can clearly prove this was a problem or this was right thing. >> it was argued between the two crises, there was time to re-load the powder we stayed in emergency mode for too long i'm talking 2010 and 2011. there were a few years >> i hate to say this. when you would have wanted to do that, it would have been 2016. i'm just saying. think through the timing of that >> okay. we never did >> i know we didn't.

i'm saying it was really 2016 when the economy was back -- >> and jay powell. >> he was in 2015 and 2016 the economy wasn't in a position ready to shift and we got into a position frankly politically in this country where we had a president who was out there publicly screaming from the rooftops to keep interest rates low as humanly possible. we debated about the politics of interest rates and federal reserve and the political pressures on the federal reserve chairman >> then it was right i think we are thinking about too many economics four guys every year some other guy on the opposite side wins one. by the time you are done, opposite opinions have won nobel prizes in economics because it is not a science it's a dismal science. paul krugman >> you had trump screaming for

lower interest rates some of the politicians on left were elizabeth warren and others were mad about raising rates now. that's why the fed should be an independent organization. >> i'm not on that side of things i don't think a deep economic slowdown is the great way to try to take care of mistakes you made by printing too much money. that's another way to do it. supply side. liz truss tried that >> we were at zero for so long. >> i know. think of what the balance sheet is that we're trying to shrink at this point. >> $7 trillion? >> this debate will not stop we have a lot going on this week on this squawk planner inflation in focus the latest producer price data on wednesday and minutes from the last fed meeting which is on thursday september consumer price data.

then friday, september retail sales and import and export prices on wednesday, we hear from pepsi and on thursday, delta airlines. walgreens and blackrock and dominos. we will hear from wells fargo and citigroup and morgan stanley and jpmorgan chase. overnight, the bank of england introduced an orderly end to the emergency purchase program for the long dated government bonds buy bonds between larger amounts between now and friday when the program is scheduled to end. the central bank said it is making the move to protect markets and investment funds ldi. it is launching a temporary expand exp expanded collateral repo

facility >> they expanded how much they're saying they are going to spend. my guess is they extend how long they will say that they have not been fulfilling the limit that they have set to this point some of the funds are not going to sell and figuring a better price point for it a lot of questions coming with this it does feel very much, don't you think? 2008 with the repo window? >> i hope it is not 2008 >> are we still at 75? >> yes >> it has to be 50 50 and take a look >> the market is betting 75. >> the market is betting 75. that is unemployment rate of 3.5% >> let's see what happens on thursday with the cpi. let's see the inflation number on thursday. if core or if you see anything

that continues to keep rising, they will keep -- >> it's from global supply chain issues >> i thought we had to get out of the roach motel >> we're out we're out. you can't go up this quickly without breaking something let's -- i'm with the journal. actually, did you see the different guys we used to talk to all the time. greg mancue. eric rosen said if anything, the fed is under estimating how high they have to go. you can find -- >> it started with the supply chain. once it gets built into wages and other things. >> it is because people like him that don't want people coming back they have to pay so much money in four-day weeks. you think we're going to work at home forever that's why >> i do. i don't think that will change >> that's why wages are going

up the weird one-off labor market as a result of the pandemic. we have to get back to normal. >> my wages are not paying what it used to >> for you to commute. you get the idea i have to pay for gas or electricity. coming up, crude coming off the ibiggest weekly gains and energy stocks with the ben efit. we will dig into the energy sector next. a promigramming note. in the 8:00 hour, interview with paul tudor jones from the site of the robinhood investment conference this morning. you are watching "squawk box" on bccn >> announcer: this cnbc program is sponsored by baird.

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the energy sector has performed exceptionally well during the bad year for the markets. in the past 12 months, occidental and chevron up. joining us now is rob and rebecca. reb rebecca, it is not really 2

million barrels, but it could be significant especially if we stop releasing spr one of these days what does it put the floor in, do you think, on crude >> yes, i think it puts the floor -- thanks for having me. it puts the floor around $75 a barrel that is aggressive because of the demand issue although the cuts last week did shift the narrative away from the pending recession and what is happening with demand in china, the reality is there is a demand concern going into the start of 2023. so this cut does protect the market it might not be 80 it is closer to 75 if this recession does start to really take a bite out of demand and if china doesn't start to recover all bets are off if the recession is shallow and china

does recover these cuts just lit a fire under crude to take production out of the market and you could see upside significantly the down side is protected at 75 the upside is probably 100 or 110 ti in the event that things are not as bad as feared at this point. >> when things like this happen, rebecca, we start hearing about proposals. i think some of these you might not be a fan of. number one, where is spr how much do we have left that might be the issue. number two, what if we ban exports? that just hurts there's part domestic producers what if we cut off any equipment to saudi arabia used in military use? all these things -- are any of those good ideas, rebecca? >> so, they're not terrible ideas.

they just have bad market consequences >> good ideas. all good intentions lead to hell, don't they >> that is the truth here, unnorth unfort unfortunately. from a market perspective, they're just not that effective. the one thing that could continue to be effective is the spr. i think you mentioned and your question is where is it? it is 430 million barrels. there's still room to drawdown there. i know that seems scary. we haven't been here since 1980. we are a stronger propducer now. the threshold of what the spr has to hold is 90 days of the country imports. that's a small number at this point. there is a possibility we see continued spr sales into 2023 if supplies compromise. it is not a terrible idea.

it does put energy security at risk down the road we have some room. the other ideas don't work in the near term and don't solve the problem. we are looking at band-aids to fill a big wound here. they just won't work >> rob, you liked the stocks for a while. what does this mean for investors that might be interested in the majors or even minors among these names >> good morning, joe what the energy sector is doing for investors is simply returning cash in the form of high dividends and stock buybacks and pay down. in the market like this, getting money back in the investors pockets is important if you say where do you go in this case? energy transfer, a mid stream pipeline operator, at 9% dividend yield

exxon reported last week 3.5% dividend yield. over double the dividend yield over the s&p 500 companies with high dividend yields are buying back stock are a tttractive places to be in ths type of environment. >> when's the party over i would think, you know, if the fed follows through, i'm not sure it's going to be a great place to stay, rob >> well, you know, you look at over the next decade and we just keep commodity prices in the $60 to $80 for oil there is a lot of cash flow, joe, that this sector is going to generate. that's all going to come back to investors. that's a really compelling investment opportunity over the next decade. >> do you think that, rob, that they are going to continue to

emphasize capital return rather than production and exploration? >> i do, joe there will be some investment. by the way, exxon is growing production chevron is growing production in the permean. to say the u.s. is not growing production, you didn't say it, i heard it before. exxon and chevron are growing production in the permean basin. if you look at the previous decade, there was a lot of production growth and the stocks went in the tank for the next decade, you will see a lot of cash back to the investor because once this discipline has started, you see what has happened in the market. the energy sector is the best performing sector in the last two years. that's because of the capital discipline mantra that all of the companies across the entire energy sector adopted. >> we got to go. rebecca, will we become the

swing producer it was us for a while. is it back to opec and saudi arabia can we get it back >> right now it is back to opec and for the reasons rob mentioned. we're not seeing the overproduction money is flowing back to investors as opposed to growth in an extreme way. so it is not like the u.s. is going to come in and kind of moderate prices to extreme degree they will inn tcrease productios he said. they are not doing it as aggressive enough of a level from lessons in the past toprods the power is back in the opec hands. >> rebecca and rob, slow and steady i get it good name. if we ever start an investment firm, we can't use it.

it's good. you think hare would be good >> probably not. >> slow and steady >> unless you get into the fund quickly and get out. when we come back, new numbers from china on sales of cars from testesla's shanghai factory. we have details next. as we head to break, look at the move in ford and gm after ubs downgraded both stocks and cut price targets. they expect the auto industry to shift from under supply to oversupply in three to six months that's a bold call not something most people are seeing you see the pressure on the stock. ford off 4%. gm down 3% "squawk box" will be right back. what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations, like real time cgi.

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welcome back to "squawk box. chip stocks hit hard in overseas trading following the ann announcement on friday from the biden administration the announcement of chips restricting sales made with u.s. technology unless a special vendor license is obtained semi stocks following the friday announcement seeing steep drops with the ishares falling sharply. tesla selling more than 83,000 vehicles in september which is an 8% jump in august in china. this comes amid supply chain issues in china following the lockdowns in shanghai. byd is continuing to lead the ev market with more than 20,000

vehicles sold last month a bit of controversy with elon musk making comments on twitter around china and taiwan. the idea that effectively he believes and some people thought he was doing this because of the business in china. china should be able to take over taiwan. got people upset especially after the russia and ukraine comments and we haven't gotten to kanye yet welcoming kanye back to twitter and kanye thanking him with comments about the jewish people that i thought were beyond the pale. >> he has been shut off. >> the big question is in the environment right now with the question in the elon musk-owned twitter, whether somebody like that and comments like that would be shutoff that is the debate >> kanye is tough to follow.

i have no idea i don't even know what he is saying. >> there are mental issues that are not known. coming up, a massive setback for rivian company recalling nearly every vehicle delivered. phil lebeau has that next. throughout hispanic heritage month, we are celebrating our cnbc contributors and teammates. i'm glad you thought i never heard of javier bardem i'm glad you are spelling it out. ventures partner and master holdings partner i knew how to say javier >> i was born and raised in puerto rico and went to college in the midwest it opened my eyes to the world to pursue the american dream and hurdles exist for many why is america such an amazing

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good morning welcome back to "squawk box. we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. things are moderate here we were talking about gains from earlier this morning a little bit of losses dow jones industrial average down by 35 we are waiting to hear all of the earnings reports that we will get this week when earnings season kicks off and thursday is the cpi number to give us a read into consumer inflation as well. we have news about a setback for rivian the company recalling nearly

every vehicle it has delivered phil lebeau has the latest on this story phil >> andrew, this gets to the heart of one of the primary concerns people have not just about rivian, but all of the automakers that have started up in the last couple years. ramping up production and ramping up manufacturing it is not easy i know it sounds quaint to say it, but this is an example of what can happen if you don't have a clean launch. rivian recalling 13,000 vehicles here is the recall that was announced late friday night. they are recalling nearly all of the models delivered they want to check or repair a steering fastener. it is important to point out there have been no injuries or accidents reported seven cases. it is enough they are saying if you have one of the vehicles, nearly everybody has one if you received a rivian, we want to check it announcing the recall, ceo and founder of the company, sent a letter to owners

if you experienced excessive noise or vibration or a change in steering performance or feel, you should call immediately. didn't say you have to park the vehicle. that is darn close to say this is serious you need to take action. at the heart of this is the question of can rivian grow as a manufacturer remember, they have had setbacks and problems in terms of establishing a manufacturing cadence. they fell shy last year drivdr delivering over 1,000 vehicles they still say they will hit the guide of 25,000 vehicles ps produced this year there are estimates of 22,000. if you look at shares of rivian, it is down 6% pre-market i'll be interested to see how this trades today. this is a recall and it is huge and not a good piece of news for rivian investors, but they expect the recall to take 30 days to check and if there needs

to be pre repairs,repairs. it is not a massive repair targeted here. the question then becomes you get the early november numbers and can they ramp up production. more importantly, can they keep the confidence of those who have reservations with the company, about 90,000 vehicles right now, on reserve with people does this have a lingering effect we have to wait and see how this shakes out. >> you have one job. you know it's a car >> ha. you're right it is a car. >> steering. let's start with steering. >> joe, i'm not diminishing the importance of this >> i can't believe it. when i read the story and it just said -- what did it say recalling all because you can't steer them >> you can >> no, no, no.

let's be clear, joe. let's be clear joe, wait a second a potential -- a potential problem there. >> it is always a potential when it is a recall >> there have been no injuries no accidents no deaths reported >> i'm glad they are stepping up instead of waiting >> absolutely. absolutely. >> when some of the cars are prone to maybe catch fire or things like that no one is saying all 13,000. when you read it -- >> joe, do you remember the tesla recall on the battery fires with the plate under the vehicle? i want to say back in 2016 >> yeah. >> the chevy bolt. >> at that time. >> it is not just new manufacturers. >> no way these guys can recover. >> it is not just new manufacturers is my point. you hear about recalls and it is a scary recall and it's frequently with the major

automakers as well the bigger issue is where do you take it back are they sending people to your house? >> first of all, becky, there is a 1-800 number they alerted all of the owners they only delivered 15,000 since they began production. it is easy to reach out to a small group of owners who are engaged with the company they set up a 1-800 number they said bring it in. they are setting up mobile pop-up and check stations, if you will, in the larger areas. rivians are distributed -- it is not like they have to set up in the middle of oklahoma you are talking about california and illinois and east coast. there are certain areas where evs are being delivered more than other areas >> it is interesting i still have a recall on my ford explorer that i have not taken in it's a pain. what i will say is i'm very glad

to see they have done this and taken the steps before there were accidents you could imagine a scenario where it would not be popular to do you dwon't want to say anything. they are taking the proper steps. >> becky, it is significant. it is not to be dismissed. at the same time, the company is not falling part and the sky is not falling down as our producer said >> of all the functions of the car, steering is in the top ten when you look down the list, phil you have it in there >> i would say so. i would say so >> work on some of the other stuff. let's get that job one all right. >> fire seems worse. >> fire's bad. fire's bad. >> phil, thank you. when we come back, we have big take aways from the september jobs report and what it will mean for the fed former fed vice chair roger ferguson will join us miss our w

with paul tur dojones. that's coming up in the 8:00 hour a reminder you can watch you go anytime on the cnbc app welcome to ameriprise. i'm sam morrison, my brother max recommended you. so my best friend sophie says you've been a huge help. at ameriprise financial, more than 9 out of 10 of our clients are likely to recommend us. our neighbors the garcia's, love working with you. because the advice we give is personalized. hey john reese, jr. how's your father doing? to help reach your goals with confidence. my sister told me so much about you. that's why it's more than advice worth listening to. it's advice worth talking about. ameriprise financial. ♪ ♪ connecting to opportunity is just part of the hustle. ♪ ♪

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september's jobs report provide assurance that the jobs market is strong and the federal reeveryserve will do more to sl

down joining us now is roger ferguson the ce trksceo of tiaa roger, do you think the fed should raise 75 basis points again? we will watch for the information on thursday and hear what companies are saying for earnings season. what is the expectation based on what you heard from the jobs report last expectation, becky, in play on the table markets are expecting 70% chanc of that. i agree with that assessment that shows the labor market is remaining strong and unemployment rate is relatively low. while things are doing slicooli slightly, i think 75 is the next number >> do you think that raises the possibility of things breaking in the meantime? what we are seeing in the uk and

the concern of gilts and treasury yields picking up there once again this morning? >> i think as i said the risk of resc recession is very high >> i wasn't talking about that the markets. >> the markets where there is not enough liquidity markets are still functioning pretty well. the story in the uk is very much one of poorly thought out and poorly communicated fiscal policy that's spilled over to the gilt market and the way they build the pension funds and how they're invested that's a unique story. here in the united states, ample liquidity in most markets. i don't expect breaking, but a lot of volatility. >> there are a lot of people and many of them are in business and have seen their businesses hurt by higher rates and have real concerns of the consumers health

in the future. they raised rapidly and they have run raids up rapidly and it has been a fast acceleration and maybe the fed should stop and look around to give themselves a breather and pause you seem steadfast in 75 what causes that >> the argument to date is we see slowing, but we will see another inflation read this thursday and it will give us more information the fed was pretty clear they want clear and convincing evidence that inflation itself is slowing coming close to the 2% target. i'm not sure that evidence is out there yet. at the other side of this, i don't think they want to be in a stop/start mode where they are communicating or miscommunicating their intentions to markets. while i understand the argument that they've done a lot and

pause would be appropriate, but the other argument which is better is they are far away from the inflation target and they have to maintain credibility in that regard. >> roger, just listening to you, i don't see how you can get around the notion that you are pointing fingers at the fed for getting us into this mess. i would think a lot of people think it is pandemic related and supply chain related and global inflation. all of these things that happened out of their control. are you saying they overstimulated and printed too much money and the balance sheet is way too big and nfts and memes and spacs and the nasdaq soaring and the fed did not do anything then. are you pointing fed for being asleep at the switch and now they've got to do this >> i think the fed was late to get started. they got caught up in the

transitory versus permanent argument of inflation. they, themselves, recognized they are on the wrong side of that discussion. it is also very clear that for a variety of reasons, the economy remained or the fiscal policy remain ed stim lative as we trid to understand the 100-year event. you laid it out. supply chain issues and reopening from the pandemic. monetary policy that got stuck in inflation transitory and clearly trying to catch up i think they admitted they started later than they should have in hindsight. >> roger, i want to get your thoughts on ben bernancke's nobel prize win this morning we were debating earlier what h did in 2008 and what will be the history of that and, of course, there is a raging debate of whether we are now in a roach motel as a result of it. some people think we should have

taken our medicine then. i made the argument that i think, frankly, he deserves the prize. what's your thought? >> well, a number of things. first, i'm with you. i was pleased to see that report this morning recognizing that ben was and still a phenomenal scholar and his work on banking crises is moving forward if you want to call bernancke and the fed as policymakers and the depth of what was going on in 2008 and pulling out all of the stop as they did and using forward guidance and balance sheet and cutting rates to zero, all of that proved to be the right thing. otherwise, the recession would have been much worse the challenge was trying to figure out how to extricate themselves and part of the issue, people forget, inflation still remained very low.

we had a jobless recovery. i think they were attempting to understand what would it take to get inflation closer to the 2% target and to bring people back to work. i think there is a little bit of policy dilemma there resulting keeping rates low for longer than hindsight should have been the case. >> roger, thank you. we will see you again soon >> thank you coming up, earnings season kicking off at the end of week we talk strategy ahead of the quarterly reports. we'll do that next don't go anywhere. we're coming right back. another busy day? of course - you're a cio in 2022. but you're ready. because you've got the next generation in global secure networking from comcast business. with fully integrated security solutions

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take a look at futures this hour right now we're looking at some red. dow down about 36 points the s&p 500 looking to open off about 8 1/2 points and the nasdaq looking to open down about 40 points. want to talk strategy as we gear up for earnings season later this week including the first of the big banks. joining us right now for that, head of small and mid cap strategy at bank of america global research. jill, i fear that you have some bad news for us because you have a sense that there is still more downside to come >> thanks for having me. we think so. earnings couldslightly miss consensus this earning season. the downward revisions that we're expecting, we haven't really seen yet when you look out to the next few quarters so i think this earning season could be okay. but when you look out to fourth quarter 2023, we think consensus

is still way too high. we think margin expectations given inflation and the labor pressures we're seeing are too high we still think that guidance is going to be one of the most important things -- >> this is not going -- this is not an earnings story we should be focused on. this is a guidance story that we should be focused on in the next two weeks? >> the guidance that we've been seeing, you know, the preannouncements when you look at stories for preannouncements, they hit record levels last earning season you started seeing more commentary in terms of week demand we think the guidance they're giving may matter more than third quarter results themselves >> what is the chance -- you have also said that you think markets are much closer to your year-end target which i believe is 3600. >> that's right. we're looking for 3600 for year-end one of the more cautious

strategy -- going into the year and we -- we've been very close to that target on the s&p. so even though we could be close to the level, it could be the year-end target. we think it's going to be a bumpy ride from here we're likely to see continued volatility we are looking for a mild recession in the first half of next year. obviously, if that's more severe than we're forecasting, you know, we could see lower levels on the s&p we've been highlighting 3,000, 3200 could be a worst-case scenario. >> what's the best-case scenario >> i think, you know, we're getting to the point where sentiment, many of the measures that we're looking at, have been getting more bearish flows have been starting to see outflows, but not yet capitulation, not yet a buy signal so we do things that you need to see more of a deterioration in

sentiment to get that buy on the market the bull market indicators that we look at in terms of things that usually occur before the market bottoms and not enough of those have occurred yet. interestingly, the fed usually cuts before the market bottoms maybe the market anticipates that a little earlier this year, but we're not looking at cuts until later next year. we'll see volatility continue from here, but certainly opportunities within the markets beyond just buying the s&p 500 -- >> if you -- just to clarify the point, if you think 3200 is low on the s&p 500, which would require some form of capitulation, i would imagine, some kind of dramatic downdraft at some point along the line, what would be the dramatic upside view? >> well, i think some of the sentiment indicators that we're pouring into suggest that the market could see healthy -- whether it's high single digits

from here on a 12-month basis. valuations, while they're not predictive of near-term returns, if you look at them over the long term, starting to suggest more healthy returns than we were looking at when valuations were more expensive going into the year. >> fair enough we will keep your eyes on not just the earnings themselves, but the guidance over the next couple of weeks. jill, thank you for joining us. >> thank you. coming up, we're going to talking about elon musk. d en in e 8:00 hour, don't miss our exclusive interview with billionaire investor, trader paul tudor jones sq "squawk box" will be right back. to be... unstoppable. that's why the world's largest companies and over 30 million people rely on prudential's retirement and workplace benefits. who's your rock?

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shares of big names are sliding as the biden administration looks to clamp down on key chip-making technology. and ben bernanke, he took home the 2022 noble prize in economics. the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now ♪

good morning and welcome to "squawk box" right here on cnbc. we're live in time square. i'm andrew ross sorkin, along with joe kernen and becky quick. let's take a look at u.s. equity futures at this hour on this monday morning got some red for you on the screen we're going to show you where things stand the dow looks like it will open 30 points. the s&p 500 off about eight points the bond markets there closed for the holiday today. still want to show you where things stood at the end of last week you can see ten-year note ending at 3.88. also take a look at oil this morning as we think about the energy complex you're looking at wti crude. 92.27. and then crypto, crypto never sleeps, that market, 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, 19,289 on bitcoin right about now. we have a couple of headlines to tell you about. investors are awaiting key

market-moving events this week the most impactful, the latest reading on inflation, and the consumer price index out on thursday both of those numbers going to be superimportant. wednesday afternoon, the federal reserve is going to be issuing minutes from its most recent policy meeting which it raised interest rates by 75 basis points for the third consecutive meeting. we'll get into the insight on what they may be thinking. and this market also kicking off third quarter earnings season. morgan stanley, wells fargo and citi on friday we'll get the latest numbers this week from delta air lines and walgreens which give you a little bit -- a nice snapshot of where the economy is and where it may be headed we'll see how this affects the mood of the stock market according to some new data coming out, the average u.s.

stock fund fell 4.5% during the third quarter. the average found is down nearly 25% for the first nine months of the year, sorry to say >> so we get cpi, ppi -- on what is that? >> i think that's thursday. >> that's like the 12th -- is this the last -- this is the last -- >> before the fed -- >> before the election >> oh. >> so the election is not -- -- november 1st is a tuesday. we're not going it november 1st. it's november 8th. >> we could have a jobs report >> we could have a jobs report the inflation data is coming out on the 12th. what's more important right now? inflation or jobs numbers? >> inflation for the fed for the election, probably both. >> let's get over to dom chu he is taking a look at some of

this morning's top premarket movers i can't remember baseball or football one person thinks he's really got some great stuff happening today. you know what i'm talking about? >> no. >> cramer. the eagles are 5-0 and the phillies beat the cardinals. so he's got some things to be pretty excited about who is your favorite >> i'm a born and bred northern california guy i kind of have to be a niners fan. and we had a pretty good win ourselves over the panthers this past sunday as well. >> and baseball, you don't care? >> baseball -- i grew up watching -- i grew up closer to oakland than i did san francisco. i was an east bay guy. i should have been an "a's" fan. i can suffer with some of the mets fans out there right now.

>> let's start with a check on automakers both shares are under pressure right now. you can see with ford down about 4%, gm down 3.5% analysts over at ubs have cut their ratings. ford gets cut to a sell rating the target price goes to $38 it was 56. gm gets cut to neutral from buy. and the target goes to $10 it was 13. a big reason why is those analysts think it will take three to six months from the auto industry to go to from a supply-retrained business to overstrained business. that's helping away on some of the auto stocks. then you have e-commerce plays keep an eye on what's happening with etsy and wayfair. retail e-commerce very much in focus because of that. and speaking of goldman sachs, some interesting notes coming

from their macro team on the current state of the market and what some of the money flows are showing about market sentiment right now. interesting parts of these notes, you mentioned some of the stats around the market right now and the average fund and performance for mutuals. through the third quarter, they say that the u.s. 60/40 stock bond portfolio is down 21% for the second worst year on record. the s&p 500 down 24%, fourth worst year on record, going back to 1900. and then check this out, treasuries down 17%. worst year on record right now stocks and bonds getting clobbered together a lot of folks dealing with that by the way, this is the interesting part they are seeing $89 billion worth of money market inflows from retail investors. what could that signal about sentiment or capitulation? that's the largest inflow to a cash vehicle since april 8th of 2020 and bonds saw their second biggest outflow, down $18 billion since april of 2020.

what does all of this mean is this a sign of capitulation or possible to come? some things to keep an eye on with regard to fund flows, becky. >> thanks for the hints. >> you got it. as we've mentioned, wall street ended last week on a note of uncertainty with the major averages all falling more than 2% on friday the nasdaq was down by almost 4% and all of that came after the september jobs report which spooked investors to thinking that the fed would stay aggressive on interest rates steve leisiesman joins us now. good morning. >> not a good one here economists raising their outlook for recession and inflation while lowering their forecast for job and economic growth and corporate profits as well. here's the downgrade here. looking for 0.1% growth in gdp for this year.

that's down from may and 1.1 in 2023 cpi, up to 8% this year. it falls down but remains above target 3.8 for the -- for 2023 and payrolls go from a very strong average of 353, that's estimated, it's actually been higher now, to just 94,000, under 100,000. maybe a little bit below trend next year, sharply raising their forecast for recession this year, next. but the odds of a soft landing, just 50/50 the average forecast for the fed this year, just below 390 and that's below the markets and the fed's own estimates. not sure what's going on there they did say, 55% saying the biggest risk to the economy is too much monetary tightening which is the new concern that's out there in markets just 50% and 10% saying ongoing supply chain issues.

88% say their risk to the forecast is to the downside. we're going to talk about this, the economic outlook, the fed outlook this morning with chicago fed president at 10:45 on "squawk on the street." becky? >> let's go back to that chart you just showed us, the top reasons they think for a recession that they're worried about a recession. number one is too much tightening the other two, i forget, but inflation was nowhere on that list >> no. no -- i'm going to double check that but it certainly was not high enough to rank in the top. that's a good point. it wasn't -- it wasn't there at all. >> so they don't think inflation is the problem that the fed thinks it is >> that's a good point as well, becky. they seem to be a little bit less concerned about that because, look, you know, there's a lot of folks out there who say the fed has been very aggressive and some sort of pause here

makes sense. maybe not quite at this level, but maybe at the level they get to at the end of the year. i don't know that i'm hearing a whole lot of support from that on the committee bostic liked the idea of pausing at 4, 4.5% the idea that the fed is going to keep raising next year seems to be fairly well ingrained. there you go that's what the market is forecasting. that 466 kind of on the high side and then coming down to 440. some expectation of a course reversal or fine-tuning or tweaking out there. >> here's what i don't get is the fed so opposed to stopping and slowing because they're concerned that inflation is so rampant and so much of a killer or more concerned about looking like they're pivoting and letting the markets go off to the races again thinking, okay, everything is done, as soon as they pause, they're not going to get back on and start

rocketing rates higher is this -- i mean, it seems like maybe you would want to stop and go down unless you're worried about the markets crazy reaction to that. >> becky, those are two great questions. and i think it's a strategic and a tactical response. the fed feels like it's behind the curve, needs to get up there, get the funds rate up into restrictive territory in order to cool the economy. tactically, they may believe that at some point they have to pause, but can't acknowledge that right now because they don't want the market to reverse the tightening that's out there i think the fed was concerned during the summer rally, becky, and i think this really informs fed communications right now, that it was sort of letting on or somehow that the mark believed that there was some kind of pause coming and the fed wasn't going to really do what it said it was going to do, and so now -- and i think this is embedded in your question here becky, the communication from the fed is much more monolithic.

people complain a lot of people are talking. i have to follow every word. they're really saying the same thing to an extraordinary extent >> i agree. >> you would think at a time like this that the fed would be -- we're doing something we haven't done before and there's concern here and there they're very monolithic. powell, i think, for better or worse, when policy is set, does a pretty good job of wrangling the committee to be on board and you do not hear a lot of dissent to the idea that they're going to go far and stay there for awhile. >> they're treating us as if children, maybe we are we hear a message, okay, if you only going 50 basis points instead of 75, we know the pivot is here. i don't know what the parents are actually discussing behind closed doors but the message they want to give us is that don't even think about kind of inflating things

again. because they -- they want this tighter market this has been a goal, not a side effect. >> exactly maybe joe who knows a lot about comedy out there remembers when somebody says there's no chance of it happening and somebody goes, so you're saying there's a chance -- >> it was from "dumb and dumber". you're saying there's a chance >> could you imagine the market rally if somebody came forward and said, you know, i think we ought to stop at four or stop here and look around or i have greater concern now. the market would go absolutely nuts on that and the fed is trying to avoid that rally not necessarily in the stock market, but more in the bond market. >> they're trying to figure out how to deal with it. okay, thank you, steve. >> i'll come back later and talk about bernanke. >> we got to do that the deal for twitter isn't

complete we're going to speak with a top analyst and ask him what he thinks is standing in the way. before we head to the break, though, let's get a eck chon the markets right now. red on the screen on this monday morning. dow off about 34 points. we're coming right back. >> announcer: "squawk box" is sponsored by bitwise the world's leader in crypto index funds.

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elon musk is on the clock. a delaware court judge has given them until october 28th so get his deal done for twitter. otherwise we will probably see the social media company sued -- tends to close by the end of the month. ultimately they think he'll be forced to finish the deal. joining us right now is aaron glick. what i think is so interesting about this, you are watching where the money is getting placed, what people are actually betting will happen. what do you see so far >> i think a lot of people, they made good money on this run after musk came out and said he intends to close -- or i should say, at least they remade money that they had lost if they were in the stock early and so they're taking some money off the table. based on some conversations i had last week, i would say that overall the market thinks there's a sub 50% chance -- it's

pricing a sub 50% chance that musk actually closes by october 28th and i think investors want to be positioned in case that -- in case that actually is the case and we head back to delaware court for trial. >> the arbitrage play has been interesting. we saw big names, people like carl icahn who posted big bets and made a lot of money, based on how far they've come back since monday, since elon said he was going to close this. do you think these people have gotten out of it at this point. >> i think a lot of them have gotten out of the name they were in it for this outcome, for a settlement-type outcome. although it hasn't settled, it was given them an anexit opportunity. there's a long way to go before musk does close the deal and like i said, i think a lot of arbs are skeptical that he

intends to do so and they're trying to figure out what his next play may be it's not going to work they're trying to figure out what his next play may be and even arbs are positioning to make sure they have some extra firepower in case musk tries to, you know -- tries not to close the deal again. >> what's an arb tourist, somebody who wants to make money on the deal? >> they come in and play deals where there's a juicy return and good risk/reward i use that term endearingly. >> sounds like smart money to me. >> there's a debate among deal makers about one major component of the financing side of this. a lot of people are looking at the banks right now. if in fact he were to change the price, if he could get a discount, whether the financing has to remain in place at the

interest rates that were agreed-upon from the get-go, or whether it opens it up in the same way that if you owned a house and you decide to sell the house and go to a smaller house even, that all of a sudden the whole thing gets re-rated and that would increase the cost and so that one of the issues around all of this is about if elon musk actually does get a discount, whether it costs him more or less >> i think that's a great point. i also think that's a prime concern for twitter's board when they were renegotiating this agreement. they want to make sure everything they agreed to before the deal was signed including and specifically the debt commitment letter, the terms of those agreements remained in place. now, whether renegotiating price would cause musk to sign a different deal with lenders, i'm not sure from the twitter perspective, i think that's probably one of the holdups, they didn't want the --

any terms from that debt commitment letter changed. that's what people are looking at and think maybe musk's next play here, to say that twitter won't meet the solvency criteria for funding the deal post close proforma that's not going to work we don't think that's going to work but that may be -- it's very -- could be a transparent attempt by musk to try to -- the next attempt by him to try to get out of this deal. >> what happens if morgan stanley went out and started trying to market the debt. that's why everybody thinks there's a lot of things that could happen between now and then >> if there's a report -- favor comes down and says he's hearing that morgan stanley is about to -- because it likely indicates that musk does, in fact, intend to close. that's the problem right now there's just a lack of trust for

what musk intends to do here in the market >> but, aaron, go back to the financing question which is, okay, let's say it's morgan stanley. if you're morgan stanley right now, you're on the hook currently at 54.20 for the previously agreed upon deal and you're likely to lose money, or at least that would be the expectation. but you would be going in knowing that if elon musk comes back to you and says, hey, man, we want to do this deal at a lower valuation, the bank should be happy about that, you would think, does the bank say, great, either we're just -- you're going to take on less debt as a result where there's going to be a different deal, or do they say actually, no, we need to recut the whole deal and the interest rates are going to be much higher what's the better alternative for morgan stanley in that instance >> you raise a great point and i think it gets to the question of why hasn't this happened already and i think that's what's making

investors so skeptical of what musk is up to now. it shouldn't be hard for all the reasons you laid out to recut this deal, to make some type of agreement with the banks where it's a win for all parties why hasn't that happened and i think the -- you know, the answer to that question may be because musk does not actually intend to close this deal and he's going to try to pull some more shenanigans with the solvency certificate that's the concern that arbs have at least. you're right because there should be a path forward here. >> okay. thank you. appreciate your perspective on all this this morning. we're going to see where all of it heads. meantime, what a new set of u.s. export controls will mean for china's tech sector and american counterparts and also i'm about to head downtown to meet with paul tudor jones talking about the market, the fed, the economy it's all on the table.

it's going to be coming up on the next hour. we're headed back in just a moment

former federal reserve chair ben bernanke is among the winners of thisyear's noble prize in economics he was recognized along with two u.s.-based economists. the panel said back in the 1980s, the winners laid the foundation for regulating markets and dealing with financial crisis and how da dangerous bank runs can be let's bring steve liesman back for some context on this award steve? >> i think that the debate is going to be about the extent to which -- what he did in 2008 warrants the prize but i think it's important to point out that's not what they got the prize for. bernanke was 28 and then 30 years old when he wrote the papers that i think they're talking about. they are talking about he changed our understanding of the great depression, right? schwartz and freedman say this is because the fed screwed up on monetary policy. bernanke says, yeah, you're

right, but there was this other element to it and the other element is that the banking system shut down if you're going to have a recession and you want to get out of it quickly, you got to get monetary policy right, but you have to watch the financial channels that are out there. and that's what led to what happened, i think, in '08, not i think. for sure that bernanke was faced with what he had studied when he was in his 20s and early 30s and said, you know what, this is the paper that i wrote and this is what we need to do we need to make sure that we don't have a banking panic and that will reduce or shorten the time of the recession. this is the thing that bernanke was interested in was, why was the recession so long? and this is what he came up with and this has been used and really accepted and cited all over and these other two gentlemen that are mentioned there, they came up with the model for understanding bank panics. >> it had nothing to do with -- we don't give noble prizes out

to, like, chairmans of the federal reserve for how they -- we may give a medal of honor or something or a -- some kind of award. kennedy center award to someone for great action during a crisis for the fed. but, remember, crudeman did great work at one point. it has nothing to do with the columns he writes for the narco"new york times" -- >> but the interesting part, whether it's going -- whether it's going to be conflated for better or worse -- >> all right we did. >> with what's happening in -- >> there's inflation going on as we speak >> well, i don't -- i don't think that they're naive to know it wouldn't be conflated if he wasn't fed chair, would he have gotten an award for this?

i think it's possible. you know, and then you also have other committees that are out there, the separate committee on the noble prize that does these awards in a way send a contemporary message like the nobel peace prize that was just awarded. but, look, i don't think anybody is out there arguing that this is a tool that works all the time in the way that it put forward -- >> and i thinkwe've forgiven ben bernanke -- do you remember the -- i don't think a big recession -- that was 2007, wasn't it? some of the safest instruments -- but we've forgiven him because he did understand what was happening and i think, you know, we're all still here breathing he did do -- kind of saved our butts. >> when you go back and look at his paper, looking at the recession -- the depression, how

he would have thought about it if he had to actually go back and write a paper today about 2008 and marry that up with the pandemic in 2019 and what the lesson of that would be. >> you know, i would have to go look and see if he's written about it he's done a bunch of economic writing since the -- since he left office. i think that he would -- he always looked over his shoulder worrying he was doing too much i think powell did a bit less of that >> all right >> steve liesman, thank you. >> good to point those things out about papers he wrote when he was 30 years old. he can't help it viewers and everybody at home is thinking, wait a minute, he gets a noble prize for the 2008 response to the -- what do we call it, the great recession. we're going to talk chips next

a lot of exposure to american semis because of what happened if china were to annex taiwan in one way or another. mohammed el erian joins us next a ftra of bank earnings and other companies are going to report we'll see how everybody is fairing about these recent rate hikes. what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations, like real time cgi. okay... yeah... oh. don't worry i got it! become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq ♪♪ ♪ a bunch of dead guys made up work, way back when. ♪ ♪ it's our turn now we'll make it up again. ♪ ♪ we'll build freelance teams with more agility. ♪

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investors gearing up for a busy week as -- do we have to? we're set to get the latest cpi numbers. joining us now mohamed el erian. my jet buddy 40 points. look at his twitter account. follow him on twitter. you'll see what happened yesterday. we did the bet we went to the jets game we didn't know there was going to be a joe sandwich on the right, i mean, how cool is that, you had the jersey on. >> i did you wore the 12 in there, not knowing anything that was going to happen after that

and mr. 12 how cool does he look for 79 years old? he's so cool and he's -- isn't he just so laid back. thank you, woody johnson he's a great host. and former ambassador to the uk. so you're queens college, you guys hit it off. >> not only were you incredibly gracious, but also you delivered. >> no, don't stop >> it was an amazing time. >> don't stop, don't stop. i even delivered 40 points for you. i delivered -- all right, let's get to what people love. this we've been talking about and i don't think you agree. some economists fear that the fed humbled by staying too long and staying transitory is now staying too long in terms of raising and we don't know yet -- haven't had an earnings season, we don't know how it's really affecting things

they may break something, we may already be in a sharp slow down. maybe they stay at this party too long, the tightening party you don't think so >> can they stop can they pivot no, they cannot. they cannot because the data doesn't give them enough of a green light. but importantly, the credibility has been hit really hard will they end up overdoing it? most likely, yes so they've gotten themselves into this hole and unfortunately they don't know how to get out of this hole there's no ladder out of this hole there's no ladder out of this hole. >> gee, your credibility was damaged. is that got for us and for the country that they have credibility or are we paying for their risk with the recession that we really -- i don't want like paying for their mistake with the recession just so they can regain credibility -- >> first of all, you have no choice but to pay for their mistakes and that's one of the tragedies of the situation

we're all going to pay for their mistakes some people are already paying there was another concern that you brought up, becky, this morning with roger, it's not just about inflation, recession. it's also about financial stability. that's the third leg of this thing. yes, joe, i don't know how we can avoid paying for this mistake because they have been late, they mischaracterized inflation as transitory when they finally recognized that mistake, they didn't act remember, in the middle of march when we printed the february inflation print over 7%, they were still injecting liquidity into this economy. that's last march. >> when you say the third party of the equation, the financial stability, do you think there are risks things will be broken in the markets if they raise another 75 interest rates. >> we're coming from 0 interest rates. we were believed that 0 interest rates were forever and now we're

adjusting. the uk has given us a warning sign. >> but there are people in the markets who still haven't taken the fed seriously so they have not getting themselves to a place where they're not going to have massive issues if the fed doesn't slow down? >> so, we have -- first of all, this is the nonbanks, not the banks. that's the good news the banks are in the middle of the payments, the nonbanks are not. that's good news yes, there are certain -- you can start with the zombie companies who are finding it much harder to refinance if they can get refinancing, the cost of this refinancing makes the numbers look completely different. then you can go to various investors who overlevered, that that's going to be an issue. yeah, i'm -- we have to keep an eye on the third element which is financial stability it's not justabout inflation and growth it's about -- >> that's almost an argument for slowing down if you're doing this for your credibility and things bank, then you have to backtrack --

>> i'm at 50 they don't give a damn but i'm at 50 -- i want them -- i think they should do 50. >> they can't. they can't they absolutely can't. if they do 50, we will be talking about stackflation there are companies that are not noticing any slowdown at all right now, and then i don't know if i -- i think that employment reports are lagging, that could happen quickly we could see some issues there or maybe not but is the economy really, really still strong and is -- can we use 3.5% as an actual real employment number right now? >> so i think the labor market is strong with one really important qualification, labor force participation. and that came down again and, remember, there's two answer to our issues, more labor force participation and more productivity that's what we need. and that solves so many issues in the economy today

and the labor report was strong across the board except for labor force participation. >> do you think -- mr. new normal, because you -- you sort of coined that term. do you think there's a new normal in terms of how we do business and how we work in this country in terms of hybrid, remote -- >> so i think of us as -- you're not going to like this, joe, but on a bumpy journey to a new destination. what does the new destination look like? tighter financial conditions, no more zero interest rates, no more injections of liquidity, that's gone. >> people at home in their basement on zoom calls. >> hold on the second element is a different type of globalization. and the third element is, we're going to struggle at a global economy to provide high growth we don't have potent growth models anymore the u.s. is in a much better situation than other companies, but the globe has a whole has issues >> even before we go, globalization, i mean that

means, what, that we're not exporting and importing like we used to? we're doing more of the production here at home? >> so, let me give you two things one is, we assume that we'll be closer integration, that's not it secondly, supply chains are going to look different. if you're going to expand in china, it's no longer in china, for china and the rest of the world. it's in china, for china, by china. you got to look like a chinese brand. this is going to be a very different globalization going forward. >> you won your bet a week ago friday when for a millisecond, the s&p 500 was below 3600 i think it was 3585. monday and tuesday, we were back to 3850 or something i was right, again and basically i'm going to be right overall, but you got that lucky print at 3585. let's talk now let's say we're sat 3700 -- and i'm not going to make another

bet, although we had fun yesterday -- the next move, up 10 or down 10% from here we haven't violated the lows yet. will we violate the lows that we've been talking about >> you've got to adjust a little bit the numbers. you can't go up ten -- >> where are we at now >> we're at 3630 -- >> i will not get to break 3600 again on the downside, unfortunately, yes. >> how about 3200? >> that gets a lot harder. if you give me -- what do we get first, plus ten or minus ten, the same bet we had at 4,000, i would say the plus ten if you give me plus five or minus five, i would hesitate to give you the plus ten. >> what kind of person -- if you win, you go to the jets game, they score 40 points, they win and you meet joe namath. if i win, i get a box of 12 tacos -- >> you didn't see what taco bell

you were going to get. this is a lesson with everybody, never enter a bet to where you commit to what you win -- >> i love taco bell so much that -- it was an even bet -- i do i think people -- it's healthy too. of all the fast food, it's probably the healthiest, i'm not kidding. you can eat four of those tacos, 500 calories, it's not going to kill you not right away, anyway thanks, mohamed. "squawk box" will be right back

up next, chips in focus. in light of the recent tensions in china and taiwan, our next guest thinks investors should bet big on key u.s. players. it wilprab bl oblye good for us too. hopefully a good investment. talk about that in the latest white house crackdown on china when "squawk box" returns.

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getting a semiconductor etf. the firm thinks it would annex china. it has risen in this world

xi jinping's term as president is going to be a big deal. was the economic backdrop not great in china, president xi is still going to be won't be deified, but he's the longest serving. he has a firm grass be on power and in your view it's only a matter of time for taiwan. >> that's right. i think the clock starts this month. prior to this month when he takes over that unprecedented third term, he was not going to destabilize his grip on power. i think after this month when he takes over that third term, that calculus changes i think that starts the clock for when china is going to make its move on taiwan it's possible that xi jinping won't want to take the risk of a new taiwanese president that takes office in 2024 or a more

assertive president such as an alternative in 2025. i think that demar cates a shor window for xi jinping. it could be 2027 when the u.s. decommissions its chips. that's the window we're looking at that has the potential to send major shock waves through the markets. taiwan is the fountainhead for the globalsemiconductor supply chain for advanced chips when that happens, the refrigerators, laptops, cell phones we use, those all rely on advanced semiconductors. i think that could be major economic pain here in the united states which is why it's all the more important for u.s. semiconductor companies to be prepared >> we better get cracking. v vivik, you're not saying you were happy about the chips act, are you? has it gotten a libertarian like you all -- no. we do need to ramp it up here tut suite, do we not

>> absolutely. that needs to come from the private market itself. china's own efforts to invest in the semiconductor capabilities have been disastrous it's gone so badly they've instigated the telltale corruption investigations fo the government money that went into their own chips sector. that might light a fire under their feet even more to go for taiwan they've made it clear tsmc in taiwan as a potential strategic asset. joe, a lot of people will say tsmc's lights could go out if china invades militarily there are ways for china to annex taiwan without setting foot on the island blockade the island. pressure it into peaceful nonmilitary annexation in that scenario china holds the keys to our future because they will dictate the terms on which we actually get access to the semiconductors coming from that

island i think that is economic catastrophe in the united states i think markets will respond poorly at the same time we believe one silver lining is semiconductor stocks could outcome meaningful, in depth scenario if they start preparing today. and the funny thing is, u.s. financial institutions are woefully silent because they have conflicts of interest in china that prevent them from warning their clients about this and prevent them from warning the portfolio companies about it. >> you spoke convincingly about the demand, actual and future, for u.s. semiconductor companies. talk a little bit about the supply side. what do you think the supply side looks like in five years time if your thesis works out? >> i think this is a supply shock waiting to happen. majority market share, majority production of advanced semiconductors come from tsmc. not a lot of people know this. this is the largest company in asia by market capitalization. it is one of the top 20

companies in the world it is a sleeping giant in taiwan if china controls taiwan, there are scenarios where in a war scenario, production could go out entirely lights could go out in that factory. even if china took it over peacefully, china dictates the returns. what i think china is playing for is part of the longer grand bargain. they've been producing what we need in turn, they haven't gotten access to the intellectual property from the west my personal view is what they're playing for is a grand bargain. we'll make what you need but in the return for intellectual property that we get back. >> let me press you on what you're going to be investing in. >> sure. >> a little bit more about what does the u.s. supply side look like how quickly, how long do we need for a viable industry to emerge and to be a substitute for our dependence on taiwan right now >> great question. i think it's going to take several years at minimum new foundry, fab for advanced semiconductor takes at least

three years to build intel is building one in ohio not far from where i am today. other companies are starting to build that that's years away from reaching fruition we don't know how long that's going to take. the further advanced u.s. companies are, the more they're going to be able to fulfill that supply void. both the general market as well as the stock market. over the longer run, the chance of success is higher let's say if it's three, four years before china invades or blocks. if u.s. semiconductor companies have built up their capabilities by building new fabs that does take at least three years each that would put the u.s. in the best position to be able to be prepared for that supply shock. >> vivek, thank you. excellent. that's what i was saying might make some money and i think you could say it's almost patriotic for us to get started

on this probably, too. at least just to make sure we're not left high and dry. we need refrigerators, do we not? >> at least prepare. it's going to put us in a better position. >> we take so much for granted, vivek. have you seen this is it 1883 have you watched that? prequel to yellow stone. if you're driving a wagon train, you can't bring food you've got to bring cattle do you know that >> yes donnor party. >> donnor party of one >> no, you can't -- nothing's refrigerated you have to bring the damn cow and kill it when you need it vivek, thanks. mohamed, thank you for hanging out. >> thank you. coming up next, next hour, can't-miss interview paul tudor jones is a few minutes away stay tuned you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc ♪♪

♪♪ be ready for any market with a liquid etf. get in and out with dia.

good morning a busy week ahead for investors. we get you ready for key inflation data and the first big report of earnings season. total recall for rivian. that's a good one.

nearly every vehicle that the company has delivered has to be checked for a potential steering issue. details are straight ahead that includes gilford. don't miss an interview with paul tudor jones as the final hour of "squawk box" continues right now. good morning, everybody. welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc we're live from the nasdaq site in times square. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen we want to share with everybody where you are? >> we are right here at the jp morgan robin hood investor conference which is going to be kicking off tomorrow morning and

we are here because we're going to be speaking at 8:25 this morning in an exclusive interview with paul tudor jones. we will talk all things markets with him, the federal reserve and maybe get some geopolitical thoughts on everything that's going on and imagine maybe even a little bit of a debate around the world of esg given his work on just capital and so much more we'll be bringing you that interview in just a little bit, becky. >> we are looking forward to it. quick check on the markets u.s. equity futures at this hour are just about flat. we've been a little higher and lower, the dow futures within a point or so. s&p down by 5. nasdaq down by 22. obviously we have a lot that the market's waiting to hear huge week for earnings they get kicked off in earnest we get to hear how companies are fairing with higher costs and we're waiting for inflation data later this week as well.

let's also take a look where the treasury yields stand. right now the bond market's closed for the federal holiday there's not movement the last tick for the 10-year was 3.888. former fed chairman ben bernanke is one of the winners for the 2022 nobel prizes for economics. he and douglas diamond were awarded the prize for their research on banks and financial crises the nobel committee said the research is significantly improved the understanding of the role of banks in the economy. also new overnight, the bank of england stepping up its emergency purchase program for long-dated government bonds. it plans to buy those bonds in larger amounts between now and friday when the program is scheduled to end the central bank taking steps to easily quit at this pressure on funds that had been hit with margin calls these are huge issues we've been talking about. some products there that some of

the u.k. pension funds bought to make sure they were getting better returns wound up getting margin calls. that caused all the problems we've seen. major setback for rivian it's recalling nearly every vehicle it's delivered phil lebeau joins us with more good morning again. >> reporter: good morning, becky. we talk a lot about automakers having a clean launch when a new vehicle starts in this case it's the whole company, starting production which they began at the end of haas year. t -- last year the company recalling nearly all of the vehicles that it has delivered since it began manufacturing last year. approximately 13,000 the ssue, a steering fastener. now it's important to note here, there have only been seven of these potential cases noted and there are no injuries, no accidents reported in the scheme of recalls, it is significant but it is not one of those where you say, oh, my goodness, i can't drive this

vehicle anymore, though we will talk about what the ceo is telling owners of rivian vehicles it has built 15,000 vehicles since production it still has guidance to build 25,000 this year there are more than a few on wall street who question if they will make it to 25,000 i mentioned the founder and ceo of rivian. he sent a letter to owners of the r1t and there are r1s out there. he said, if you notice anything, call them immediately. they didn't say stop driving the vehicles but this was a clear float r.j. saying we want to get this fixed as quickly as possible they think they can do all of the checks if they have to do an adjustment to a fastener, they think that could be done within 30 days it could be we look at this and say, those are the growing pains when you start up from scratch on the other hand, you are looking at people who are

watching rivian saying, you have got to make sure you have the manufacturing down and can you get up to 25,000 can you have clean launches of vehicles in the future not a surprise with a new auto company but certainly one that will get a lot of attention. >> down over 8,000 today this week, key inflation data and we have the start of earnings season. mike santoli, crazy week last week monday, tuesday, difficult friday >> you were up 6% after 2 1/2 days it's left the s&p hang pg around the june lows. you can look at the chart and say we haven't really carved out

too much incremental down side since mid june on the other hand, obviously all of the rallies have failed this is all the are we there yet rallies? very similar set of issues fed obviously not able to kind of call an offer on any sort of inflation. the cpi number has been one of the sources of greatest volatility we're going to get that on thursday you mentioned no guidance from the treasury market because the bond market is closed so we're sort of idling right here. sentiment is still depressed valuation has come down a fair bit. the tactical picture is rough. take a look at the 60/40 portfolio. stocks and bonds offered traditional in a retirement fund this goes back to the end of 2019 and i just wanted to point out, more than two years flat on this you have a little bit less than 2% in terms of income along the way, but this has been an unusually weak year. you can look at this and say, wow, 60/40, we have to declare

it dead. on the other hand, second worst year in 100 years for this type of portfolio that's what's going on right now. you might ask yourself, are we going to get another bad year after the basically worst year in 50 and the second worst in 100? mean reversion might start to help energy versus tech it goes back and they've converged. it's pretty common to say energy is the only game in town the only group working is it overdone is it crowded? maybe in the short term it is crowded. over this period of time it's essentially matched tech really massive kind of crowding into tech and now it's starting to give way and you have them both coming pretty close together here since the end of 2019, joe. >> all right mike santoli, we'll see you. you're in every day this week, right? we're going to need you. >> i sure am, yes.

>> i'm just checking don't want to pry. >> no, i'm here. >> verify. >> sorry about the mets, mike. >> oh, no, yankees for me. >> yankees. >> is that what they mean by a one-hit wonder yesterday no, that's something else. one hit. show up. 162 games. >> long season they did well most of the season >> scherzer. supposed to win. when we come back, it has been a tough year for the big banks. several including bank of america. s&p under 24 1/2%. we're going to take a closer look at the sector ahead of this week's earnings report that is next later, don't miss an exclusive interview with billionaire investor paul dojos.tur ne "squawk box" will be right back. .

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see how easy it is to save hundreds a year on your wireless bill over t-mobile, verizon, and at&t. talk to our switch squad at your local xfinity store today. futures this morning are flat ahead of the opening bell you're looking at down arrows but not by much. we've been bouncing around the flat line. the dow off by 12.

nasdaq down by 33. s&p off by 6 later this week the big banks are going to begin reporting their quarterly results. our next guest says he expects profits to be down overall sentiment he does not think will be grim for more on what we can expect this earnings cycle, we want to bring in bob diamond, the former ceo of barclays. he knows this industry inside and out. bob, there have been some real concerns about the banking industry, which is crazy when you see a rising interest rate environment. we're talking about this time in the context of seeing the slowing economy. potentially concerns about recession. what do you think as we get into the earnings what should we be looking for? what do you think we'll see? >> becky, i think it's a weak quarter for the big banks pretty much across the piece. i think lending, both consumer lending and certainly the mortgage books are much lower than they have been in previous quarters i think fees for advisory

businesses are going to be down significantly. we see that. i don't think it's a crisis, i think it's very much a reflection of what's going on in the economy and what's going on with the fed right now on the other hand, i think i'm kind of looking for which banks really surprised or please us with the trading operations. so i look at a goldman sachs, for example, in currencies, fixed income, equity secondary trading, commodities, how strong a performance will they have which kind of sets them apart a little bit from just all of the other banks. i think in the u.k. barclays, as you mentioned, with the volatility in the u.k., with the new leadership in the conservative party, with the announcements the chancellor had made, the currency trading in that market, gilt trading in that market with the intervention of the bank of england in buying guilts their trading option should be

pleasing as well i guess the one other thing, becky, i looked at is change in provisions to see how the credit outlook is shaping up. >> if we see big provisions, is that a reason to be concerned? is that just an indication the banks are being cautious and making sure they are well-provisioned >> i think it will probably be both i think the banks have steadily had better capital levels and be being more conservative in taking provisions for sure, but i would expect to see provisions reflect what's going on in the economy. the negative is for lending institutions and lending banks, it's going to hit their

provisions potentially pretty heavily. >> that's the one thing. when banks start taking big provisions you wonder what they know that the rest of us don't is there a scenario where you say, uh-oh, there's way more than we realized >> no. i don't think this is going to be a crisis period i don't expect a crazy spike but i think part of our bullishness is with 12 to 13 years of zero interest rates, there are good companies that have bad capital structures i think that's going to be an interesting opportunity. don't think we'll see a debacle. i think it will reflect what the fed has been up to, the higher interest rates and the economy starting to slow and get worse >> bob, real quickly the u.s. banks, i know we're in

a different position they've been well-regulated. they've been protected the regulators have taken actions. there are questions of credit s swiss. is there a risk of contagions reflected back in the u.s. >> yes and no. i think as you and i have talked about for a long time, post 2008 we've seen an amazing separation of the u.s. banks recovering thanks to t.a.r.p. as we talked about, immediately after the 2008 financial crisis, without the t.a.r.p. banks like bank of america and citi bank were insolvent and today they're thriving globally and in the domestic market that's not the case with royal bank of scotland, for example, that is still owned by the government the trials and tribulations of credit swuisse that we're seein

play out it's gone across europe where there hasn't been a regulatory framework to allow a strong recovery for those banks they're also fighting against a difficult monetary policy. i don't see anything systemic. what i see is very low returns on equity out into the future reflecting very low price to book >> bob, how sticky do you think the money is that's sitting in the banks at the likes of credit suisse or a deutsche bank? you start to think about the wealth management franchise that is credit suisse given all the speculation and rumors that are floating around, if you are a customer of those banks, do you think you say, i'm

keeping my money there do you think money is getting moved? what does that look like because i think in the case of credit suisse, a lot of folks are looking at the date of october 27th when they're going to announce earnings the idea of a big restructuring. some people say are they going to have to pre-announce? what happens >> so i think most people following in that situation have a consensus that they need to be bold they need a separation of the investment bank that's been rightly or wrongly blamed for a lot of the issues. credit suisse is focused on retail banking, asset management and private banking. it wouldn't be trading at 17, 18, 19% of book as it is today they need a bold resolution. to your point, i think this is about their brand and reputation do i think they're losing deposits one of two very, very large, successful retail franchises in switzerland with a very strong regulator. i don't think they're systemic

to your point are they going to lose asset management and are they going to lose private banking business if they don't have a resolution to these issues sure, based on brand and repu reputation you're exactly right there are challenges to those, they're not a lack of deposits >> bob, i want to thank you. great to see you. >> good to see you thanks, becky. coming up, we're going to talk about the analyst downgrade. dragging down the shares of ford and gm still ahead, investor paul tudor jones joins us in an exclusive interview, market volatility, the fed's next move and much more. "squawk" coming right back

welcome back to "squawk box. tough session on friday for all three of those averages which almost wiped out the gains that we saw earlier in the week we are up 6% we ended up 1.5% we're watching shares of ford and gm ubs downgrading those. the analysts expect them to shift from under supply to over supply in 3 to 6 months which will brianne abrupt end to a three-year phase of unprecedented pricing power and margins by the manufacturers joe, coming up we've got a big interview. our newsmaker of the morning, an exclusive with billionaire investor paul tudor jones is coming up right after a quick break as we get ready tomorrow with the jpmorgan/robinhood investor conference. we'll be back with paul tudor jones.

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what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations, like real time cgi. okay... yeah... oh. don't worry i got it! become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq welcome back to "squawk box. i am live ahead of the jpmorgan, robinhood conference that kicks off here in new york tomorrow. joining us is paul tudor jones

he's the founder of robin hood foundation good to see you this morning. >> good to see you >> we've all been trying to make sense of this market, this economy. trying to understand what the federal reserve is going to do we're seeing what's happening in europe and issues in ukraine, russia, comments by president putin. i want to put it all into the mix as a macro trader. you're going to be doing a master class, today, about macro trading coming up on wednesday what is your take on what's happening in this economy and this market right now? >> well, these are spectacular times for macro. great times for macro are typically not good times for the general investment owning stocks, owning bonds. macro works when everything is

broken a bit that's when you have the most volatility, when it's really best for the type of trading that i do. so for me -- >> bad times good times for me are bad times for general investors. if you think of where we are, the fed reserve board is fighting something it hasn't seen really in almost four decades, which is inflation. inflation is a bit like toothpaste once you get it out of the tube, it's hard to get it back in, right? so the fed is -- the fed is furiously right now trying to wash that taste out of their mouth and they're doing it by raising interest rates and, of course, there's a big calibration question here. just how much are they going to raise them how much do they have to raise them what's the consequence of that typically for when you have an extreme event like we have now, the only way to get it back in

the tube is to raise interest rates to a level, powell's already talked about pain. i take that as a metaphor for recession. if we go into recession, that has negative consequences for a variety of assets. >> which side of the debate are you on there is a version of the debate which is the jay powell version. the credibility of the fed is we have to keep going and then there's the barry sternlicht position, already gone too far that the lagging effect hasn't really caught up with it we haven't seen it but, boy, are we going to, and by then it's going to be too late >> the fed's really caught between a rock and a hard place. you've got wage inflation at 5.5% that has to come down to 3.5% for us to get inflation back to 2% there's 1, 1.5% productivity

above the normal 2% inflation. inflation -- excuse me, wage inflation has to get back to 3.5% that's really, really hard to do, right? if i think about cola increases for social security last year, in our company, we're kind of beginning to talk about what are going to be our wage increases for next year? and so for that compensation level that most americans are in or certainly left here, everyone is expecting us to play catch up for what they suffered this year and they weren't compensated for last year in salaries. we're looking at wage rises of 5 to 10% in that average american comp level so it's really challenging for the fed if they're truly going to hit the 2% target i think they should.

th there's so many -- keep going. 75% basic points make sense? >> pay me now, pay me later. if they don't keep going and we have high and permanent imflags, it creates i think more issue down the road. we went through the greatest period of global prosperity, the greatest period of reduction in poverty rates globally when we had 2% inflation on average for most of the developed world. it was a real struggle too get there. obviously volper came in, jacked rates. after he took rates to almost 20%, he still didn't win the fight of inflation it took a decade. >> if the argument is it always tips over into recession, are you arguing that is the right decision >> i'm saying more likely than not if we're going to have long-term prosperity you have to have a stable currency and a

stable way to value it so, yes, you have to have something, 2% and under inflation in the very long run to have a stable society so there's going to be short-term pain associated with long-term gain, yes. >> throw into the mix of this. putin talking about a nuclear war. how do you even conceive of that >> so hard to trade it because it's such a binary event if you think about it, we have a dictator who's losing and typically that doesn't end well. typically that's going to end with a violent death and the question is, who is he willing to take with them, right is it going to be regional focus between russia and ukraine or does it expand beyond that obviously if you think that the two outcomes have such two traumatically different impacts on the markets, if all of a

sudden he was gone tomorrow by some coup or something, you had this massive rally and risk, yet what i think's probably more probable, he escalates the kinetic side of his response, then you have just the opposite, the armageddon scenario. i'm not smart enough to know which one -- i don't think anyone can accurately predict the outcome. >> is there a trade? are people trading this? >> well, if i just take our company, we make everyone cover their tails. so if you've got -- if you've got something that's going to be exposed to, again, an escalation and the kinetic response, whether it's chemical weapons, we make everyone cover their tails. again, the outcomes are so binary, they have such massively different consequences for so many different asset classes. >> you know, in the middle of the pandemic i remember you joining us and talking about the possibility of run away

inflation. one of the things you talked about then was a hedge around using crypto, bitcoin. your friend stan druckenmiller had bought bitcoin as well he recently had an interview with joe kernen at delivering alpha. he said he's out of bitcoin. where are you? >> i have a minor allocation i've always had a small allocation to it i think, you know, if you think about every decade, the '70s were the decade of inflation the '80s was a decade of boom/bust, huge swings in dollar volatility the '90s was equitization, the great financial crisis the teens were the peak of globalization and probably the peak of central bank experimentation with monetary policy, right? the '20s i'm afraid are going to

be that period where we really focus on debt dynamics country by country, fiscal deficits and the need to run certainly fiscal policy in a way that gives people confidence in the long-run value of the currency and the problem that we've had really for the past 12 years is that we've done this experimentation with monetary policy where we suppressed yields, we did this massive experimentation on the fiscal side during the pandemic my guess is the '20s are going to be the opposite of both we're already stheeg right now from a central bank. whoever is the president in 'this is going to be dealing with debt dynamics that are so dire and so every -- >> so dire that this is 1970s? >> no, so dire that -- that

we're going to have to have fiscal retrenchment and that fiscal retrenchment means if we don't have fiscal retrenchment, that everything we spent if you think about the teens, which was all about suppressing yields, right, i think the '20s will be just the opposite. higher term premiums in bond markets. higher term premiums in stock markets. it will be just the opposite of what we experienced the last decade so in a time when there's too much money, which is why we have inflation and too much fiscal spending, something like crypto, specifically bitcoin and ethereum, where there's a finite testimony out of that, that will have value at some point some day. i don't know when that will be, but that will have value. >> the value at a much higher number than we are today. >> oh, i think so. >> like? >> i would think -- so we're probably getting ready to go

through the recession playbook more likely than not sometime i don't know whether it started now or two months ago. you always find out and you're always surprised about when a recession officially starts, but i'm assuming we're going into one. there's a specific playbook around that and -- >> what is that playbook >> well, so that playbook is most recessions last about 300 days from the commencement of it the stock market's down say 10%. the first thing that will happen will be short rates will stop going up and will start going down before the stock market actually bottoms so that's why you could argue that 2-year rates here may have some value or somewhere through here and term premium gets put-back into a variety of assets into bond markets, into stock markets

and that's what's happening. so you're seeing multiples compress in the stock market as they shouldand you're starting to see bond markets sell off because, again, term premiums being put-back into them i would say when we get into that recession there will be a point when the fed stops hiking. there will be a point when it starts to either slow down or even at some point it will reverse those cuts when that happens, you'll probably have a massive rally in a variety of beaten down inflation trades including crypto. >> i want to bring becky into the conversation because she has a question when do you expect that to happen >> looks, we've got rates at -- unemployment rates at 3.6%, i believe. it's very possible we haven't even started yet it's very possible that when the nvr goes back and says here's when the recession officially started, that it'll be somewhere

within a month or two of now maybe -- i doubt, again, with the unemployment rate so low that they would date it earlier than this. they look at six or seven different measures. >> right >> you're always surprised ex post when they do. >> hey, becky. >> yeah, thanks, andrew. paul, just wondering we heard from ray dalio i think it was a week ago today that after years and years of saying cash is trash, he thinks cash is not necessarily such a bad place to be. it's an unusual call there could be dislocations. maybe that's a good reason for it when you have high inflation average investors trying to play along with that game could get burned what are your thoughts about cash and whether or not to thoeld. >> i think he's 100% right that's kind of the playbook we're in at this part of the cycle when central banks are aggressively trying to attack inflation globally, assume that go they follow through with what

they said they're going to do which is, again, bring inflation back to a reasonable level you would unee give vocab -- unequivocally trust cash it's hard to take what you've learned about investing and put it behind you. you have to. the market changes, it's a completely different environment we're in right now when i think about the, quote, january effect that we're going to see next year and all the money that theoretically is going to come into the stock markets and bond markets, you know, all of a sudden 2-year rates are 4.3% or higher, you've got to wonder whether you get the same flush into assets that you normally see in january, february, march as you have in the past because all of a sudden we've got for the first time in 13 years a really attractive

short-term rate, 4.3%. >> i wanted to ask you about another piece of fwhus this morning. ben bernanke just winning the nobel prize for economics. that in large part for the work he did when he was 30 years old, a long time ago. we'll of course be brought forward to talk about how he dealt with the 2008 crisis people will then say did we stay too long at the party and then we had the pandemic. how do you see it? >> so, by the way, ken griffin is interviewing ben bernanke tomorrow at our investor's conference our investor's conference has so many great trade ideas you would have been a quatrillionaire following what so many of our great panelists say over the course of that conference i think monetary policy was relatively straightforward and somewhat easy to understand all

the way until we got to really 2018 and '19 and '20 and that's when it went off the rails and kind of deviated from orthodoxy. quantitative easing we went through in 2001 to '15, that was a stretch but it wasn't necessarily egregious. it kind of, i think, opened pandora's box. then of course i think this particular fed reserve board hatsha taken it to a new level and they're as fast as they can be taking it back that's why you have extreme volatility in the markets. >> i want to talk about esg, something you've been talking about. we're seeing a real po

politicization of calling esg a scam and states of blue and red fighting each other. treasury of louisiana taking money out of blackrock because they don't like some of the policies around investing. what do you make of this >> i think critics of esg are as wrong as a frog in a fire. esg -- first of all, it suffers because they have the emphasis on the wrong syllable. it should be social, governance, environmental. at just capital we poll the american public every year and ask them what constitutes just corporate behavior and with that we rank a thousand largest companies according to what the american public tells us many of the things we ask the public on are esg components

some of the same things -- some of the critical factors we use in our just ranking. and if you just look, again, esg has been so politicized, it's been to serve a lot of people's purposes out there as opposed to looking at the facts if we take our just 1,000. >> right. >> we take the top 100 companies and the bottom 100 companies since we started calculating the index in 2018, the top 100 companies have returned about 58%. the bottom 100 companies returned about 14% that's a 44% spread on alpha it is derived from looking at many esg components. >> right what do you say to the pension funds in some of the red states that are pulling their money out of the blackrocks of the world and at the same time you could look at calpers, they took their money and said, frankly, they

didn't want to be buying into gun makers, other tobacco products and people looked back and said they lost money on those deals, that they should have stayed if their entire purpose, if you will, was not esg but was simply making a return >> so, again, staying away from politics and ideology, focusing on the data. i simply look at our just index and the reality is the top 100 have outperformed the russell 5,000 the last five years. there's a lot of alpha investing and what the american public says is corporate just behavior. the number one metric is -- by a wide margin is do you pay your employee a fair and livable wage so, again, when i've seen people attack esg, i'm going, hold it

wait a second. democrats and republicans, rich and poor, young and old, men and women, 85% of americans agree that the most important metric and you know where i stand you can look at the fossil fuel thing. >> we have an energy company in our just 100 again, we have to make sure we're defining what we mean by esg. the most important, the most important metric is how you treat your employees, and i don't know who's going to argue with that. i want to see the person who's going to come and say, we should not treat them fairly or engefr to pay -- >> by the way, elon musk is talking about this one of the reasons he was taken out of the s&p index funds was

this idea he was not on the right side not on climate but he wasn't on the right side on governance >> right a multitude of factors i don't think you can hold every single company accountable on every single factor. i think you have to look at this with a broad brush and should we be endeavoring as companies and as people to try to sit there and take into account all the stakeholders that are involved in valuing a company and that is how you treat your employees, how you treat your customers, how you treat your shareholders, how you treat your communities and how you treat mother nature. can i just -- if you said, i've got two tombstones and i'm either chairman of the board or i'm on the board or i'm a stakeholder in that company, i've got two tombstones at the end of my life one is i made an elephant's

belly full of money, the other one is i treated my employees, my customers, my shareholders, my communities and mother earth with respect, which one of those two tombstones do you want >> clear as day. >> okay. >> that's how -- that's how i look at the crazy esg. we're not thinking. >> a lot of investors who don't agree is to say the only way to run it profitably is to do it that way, the second way you described. >> i would say, again, if i look at the just 100 and their performance, i look at what they've done, forget just the stock performance, how many more jobs they create -- >> right. >> -- a whole host of metrics is just so clear to the best business around doing what the

american public tells you to do. that's treat your employees fairly treat your customers fairly. >> we've got to jump as you can tell, everything is getting set up for this big conference you have an interview tomorrow with steve cohen. >> i do. >> talk about mets, trading? >> all i know is i wish the mets had advanced so much i look forward to hearing what he has to say. he's done so much for that franchise. he's given mets fans hope so god bless him. i wish they had done better. >> what else are you looking for him to do? >> teaching that master class in macro and anyone that's there for that is going to learn how to have sleepless nights and get a tick by the time they're my age and, yeah, it's going to be fun. that's going to be about the mechanics, not necessarily about -- about the mechanics of what you've got to do to create, manage, and follow through on a

trade. >> okay. it's for a good cause. sponsored by jpmorgan. paul, we appreciate it. >> thank you so much always a pleasure. >> always a pleasure thanks >> joe >> coming up, jim cramer's first trading week ahead futures indicated up futures indicated up "squawk box" will be right back.

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i'm a vegas hotel. i don't want anything long term either. just a few nights of fun. some people say i'm excessive, but who cares. i just want to enjoy some late nights. and some very late checkouts. all right, let's get down to the new york stock exchange. jim cramer joins us now, and

with the mets are on my mind, jim, but just a look at the half-full issues here, the phillies you must be ecstatic and 5-0 i was able to have arizona because i had some points. i had some points, so i still won, and then the eagles won it was like the perfect combination for you. >> what'd you get? you got a couple points. >> i had enough. yeah i had enough to where i covered. >> the coach was talking about how there were more -- he said it seems like a home game, and then you go play the tape, and it does feel like a home game. my wife caught me pitching i was pitching on saturday night with the phillies, i don't know, i just felt like i should pitch while they were pitching this is a joyous time to be a phillies fan certainly more joyous than what

we do requefor a living, joe. this morning, the futures were down really badly, but they have made a comeback. everybody who's a bull has turned into a bear we have the banks coming to report they don't seem like they may be that horrible, but everyone's -- i think everyone's giving up, and it feels have been 2008 in terms of when it comes to stocks, but not when it comes to fundamentals, so i don't know, joe, you come to work, it's all bad, and then the futures are up, so somebody's buying now the idea that there's ever a pivot is, like, so out of fashion all of a sudden. >> that's so right >> i would -- i've already said on record, i would do 50 at this point. i mean, you've done -- i mean, you've gone up so quickly, and we may need to get higher, because you need to get above the rate of inflation. we know how you need to do that,

but you'll get there going 50. let's just make sure, you know, that the pace doesn't -- isn't self-defeat -- i guess when you lose credibility, when you stay too long, transitory, people are going to say, how are you so sure now when you certainly were wrong then so, i don't know i don't know, jim. >> yeah, just a little slower would make it so i think we have less of some catastrophe >> but you're right. jobs numbers are still strong. >> yeah. they're all wrong. but can i just revert to sports? everyone thought the mets had the win. everyone thought the phillies had to lose. everybody was wrong. >> these are really good matchups, though i'm excited about it >> sports is so great. >> every pitch, it's a foul ball, my god, it's 3-2, bases loaded it gets really good in the postseason for baseball. >> it really does. thank you. >> "squawk box" will be right back

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just a little more than a half an hour to the opening bell on wall street dom joins us >> if you take a look at what's happening right now with rivian, those shares, we've talked about it before, but they are down

about 6%, 7% in the premarket trade right now on the notion they've now recalled pretty much all of their vehicles for a potential steering issue now, no injuries have been reported as a result of this still, they're being a little extra cautious shares of rivian down 7% on those headlines. also, some analyst action to talk about here. toast. this is the company that makes the point of sale and kind of inventory management payment processing solution for restaurants and bars toast shares are up 5.5% right now due in part to analysts who have upgraded this stock to a buy. they think there are survey results that have taken a look at restaurants and bars that adopted, say the vast majority of them say they see positive impacts on their sales and profit margins by usingtoast and then we'll end with a check on shares of procter & gamble. big consumer products company, los of big-brand names, down 1% due in part to analysts at goldman who have cut that target to a neutral from a prior buy. they think there are brand head

wipds in the mix right now also some valuation concerns, so procter & gamble down about 1% of the premarket trade on that joe, back over to you. >> dom, time to go got about 15 seconds for one final look at where the futures are. 122 now on the dow get the bond market open again tomorrow, so we got some direction, but we're green we're leaving us in the green, which is good. andrew, i'm sorry. i forgot you're still here i'll see you tomorrow because i'm all alone here on the set. >> see you tomorrow. >> "squawk on the street" is next ♪ good morning, and welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm david faber. he is jim cramer carl has the morning off let's give you a look at futures as we get ready to start trading for another week right here on wall street. you can see originally we had come in thinking we were going to be down >> at 4:00, we were