commercial growth is here. >> and finally, joey. >> free pport mcmoran. i'll see you in overtime our mvp segment is back, a big call today on a drug stoke i'll see you then. "the exchange" is now. thank you, scott i am brian sullivan. here is what is ahead. the risk-off trade is alive and well the key inflation numbers, earnings, and yeah, the jamie dimon markets that are sending the markets low. one of your guests from the shine, turn total dividend payers, the safer name three stocks that he likes right now. plus the nasdaq once again lagging today. chips are being shelved. in case -- it may be yes, sir

ahead. the state of mergers and acquisition in energy, why we could see a surge in deals ahead, and what it says about the entire energy complex. we begin with the market, of course, dom chu has the numbers, and the interview with jamie dimon making a lot of headlines. >> market moving at 5:00 this morning, things didn't look back you but now we're at session lows. this is now just about session lows on the stoeism. to give us an idea of where we were, at the highs today, we were up 13 at one month marginally higher, but not so anymore the nasdaq composite, by the way, 10,470, now the lowest levels all the way back to july of 2020. this represents session lows,

the dow industrials are off 255 points, but it's that technology trade that really is a huge focus. one of the bigger drivers of that technology and nasdaq trade has been the weakness we've been seeing in chip stocks. no surprise there, especially the fundamentals, and, of course, with the biden administration looking to put rules into place to trip some of the sales of chips by the u.s., could you tell us certain companies, is having another adverse effect, so there are make rho headwinds, micro head winters, but sosx tells you a bit of a story it's been a steady slide all year and then gm and ford, the reason why they're down today, alongside the rest of the market is also an analyst downgrade they say ford is now a sell-rated company, and gm goes

from buy to neutral. they think there's demand shoots that will emerge, also that we will quickly shift in just maybe a handful of months where the auto industry was under supply to then oversupplied they're down 8 and 5%. bri, not a good day out there. surge not. >> it's going to generate a lot of discussion. the s&p 500, it is already down nearly 25% this year as we just mentioned a little while ago, jamie dimon told our colleague in europe, that there is likely more stock losses to come listen >> it may have a ways to go. it depends on the soft landing/hard landing thing isn't i don't the answer to that, it's hard to answer.

it could easily be another 20% i think that will be much more painful that issen first 20% because people aren't used to it i think negative rates, all said and done will have been a complete failure >> there's a lot more to that. you can watch the entire exclusive thing tomorrow but let us get back down to today. bob pit at the new york stock exchange, we are going to talk about earnings, and what's going on maybe we still will, but i imagine there's a lot of reaction to they dimon comments. >> 20% down will get you down to 3,000. he's on the more bearish side right now. three points about earnings season first, the earnings are expected to be up for the third quarter, but the extraordinary profits of the oil companies are really distorting the rolls without energy, earnings would

be any tiff this year. second point i would make is the companies that have reported early, most notable are the companies that have guided down for the rest of the year of 20 companies reporting so far, fewer are beating the estimates. the beat percentage, how much they're beating by are much smaller. there's a higher number of negative revisions to estimates for the fourth quarter, which is really what the trading community cares about. finally, overall earnings for the s&p 500 are still expected to be up in the third and fourth quarter, but several sectors have seen significant cuts in the past few weeks this is from the fourth quarter. look at these numbers. you see energy is the big mover, but there's four sectors already negative communication services, financials, consumer discre discretionary, and technology is just barely positive at 0.2% that will likely, brian, be negative by the end of this

week there's an unusual degree of cluelessness about earnings season there's a very wide degree of uncertainty around both the>> direction. as a result, you get these wide, wide estimates appeared more volatility. >> you're nailing sup an pont point as i knew you would. tenth. >> and somebody asked me the biggest risk to the marked, and i said continue experience but, to your point, if you're under the age of 45-ish, you've never managed money or ran a

company in this kind of environment. it's all new >> and people forget, stocks compete against points for portfolios people have never thought about it that way, not that the yield on bonds are moving up, that is an risk-free very much, essentially. that's starting to be very attractive that hasn'ting an atrannive props. you can see why a lot of ceos, have never had to deal with this. >> and a busy of mine told me he's buying two years, because you get no state income talk, but if that's true, you're starting up 5% that's not bad, bob.

that's the down side bob pisani, thanks very much >> given all uncertainty, our next guest is turning to dividend stock exchange for the opportunities now. he's saying it could go down -- do you think that's reasonable >> i don't think that's what he said if they were at the lower end, of course, you could see markets

drop 20. here's where markets can drop 20%. crane day any reason at any time it was true before jamie said it jamie knows it's always true all of us know it's true brian, i think the key here is you have a famous rich guy said it could be worse or better, and i think it's a weird day in market with the bond markets we're just in a volatile time period. >> i don't want as to push back. i haven't seen the whole interview, to be fair. the whole thing will air tomorrow with julianna on cnbc europe and then again here, but knowing jamie and his previous comments, he's being critical, i believe, of central bank responses. we just talk about a two-year note, and people saying i'm ditching stocks and buying

treasuries directly. this is not a conversation i've ever had in 26 years of doing this job. >> it's a conversation for those of us with retail investors have all the time, but you're right, the numbers are a bit difference 4% on the two-year, but there's some reason to ditch an investing plan comes up about every five minutes i think right now, brian, in fairness -- >> all right, david, we're going to get him back, but maybe that represents the uncertainty in the market right now we're in the middle of a great comment and the screen goes dead if we can get him back, we will. otherwise we'll talk about the oil surge coming up. you have might have heard about the opec decision last week, oil trading close to $93 a day your next guest says get ready for a surge in deals in the sector in fact we just had a headline

about a potential deal in oil and gas. we'll get to that in a minute. plus, small caps holding above their june lows. why that is a silver lining, perhaps in this market, and why this small-cap name in particular might be worth taking a look it's a mystery chart we'll tell you. and a quick check on your markets. we are seeing the dow down nearly 300, the nasdaq ones again the big decliner, 1.9%, headed for one of the worst years ever for tech stocks we're back, after this you'll always remember buying your first car. and buying your starter home. or whatever this is. but the things that last a lifetime like happiness, love and confidence... you can't buy those. but you can invest in them.

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welcome back to "the exchange." oil prices are back on the upswing, soaring 10% in the last week, following the opec production cut, which kind of surprised everybody. we'll get a real 900,000 or so cut. still moving oil prices back above $90. the xle also seeing big moves, and despite all the uncertainty, our next guest sees a surges in energy deals ahead as we mentioned, there are now reports that exxon is weighing a takeover of denbury resources.

they have operations in both of gulf cost and rocky mountain regions. to discuss it all, mohammed la garri, as gheiten haim security, workses in the energy investment banking group. what timing. sometimes you get lucky in television lit, exxon might be taking over d denbury. are you surprised by the headline itself. >> yeah, not surprised as you said, i think we see activity picking up. gas companies are building war chests of cash with the free cash flow they're generating there's only so many dividends and buybacks they can do they can certainly put it in the ground to drill and grow

so theft to look at acquisitions at attractive prices i think with the volatility in the markets, they will find attractive markets. >> i'm going to ask you to weigh in on politics i think there's some members of congress, and maybe 1600 pennsylvania avenue, who would say, don't do deals. use any extra money to expand production hard to believe, but basically drill more oil, which sounds ridiculous, but that's what we're hearing, and oil and gas companies are saying we can't. so it sounds like deals are the only way to grow production. there's just no people, no labor, no steel. >> yeah, brian, that's a great point. i am going to try to stay out of the politics, but the reality is there's two, three constraints one of the important once that gets overlooked is regulatory and policy certainty

if you don't have long-term views by pipelines an plans, it become different to plan you have to have that certainly. like you said, accessing labor is becoming different. the investor appetite for oversupplies the market is pretty limit ed they've gone gie coast, gulf of mexico a bit. who looks good to you?

it a pure play the holy trinity of energy place, we need a lot of it energy need to be reliable clean and cheap. so i think with denbettery, people obvious join light the fact that it hats a pretty interesting ccs business so i think it's a business attraction there. >> denbury has done more on carbon capture

by position make are a little most advance d like an exxon, wo just has gotten buried would want to have >> no, big factor. if you don't have that, you know, you need to have the lowest cost resource that you can supply the permian you mentioned is obviously the biggest play so that's always going to be in the picture. i interview the the saudi interyew over in opec last week in austria i asked him about oil prices, but i was going to ask anyway

rgets he talk about stability. that said, if we can keep oil between 70 and 90, or of 0 and 80 would that stability then produce more dealmaking? if oil goes to 30, then zero and 80, nods nose what the heck will happen overall price takers for the most part.

again, without getting into the politics stability was a big reason for the move, in our view looking at a potentially a boom in energy m&a, and an important headline that we're just running on the screen muhammad, thank you very much. exxon may be looking to take over denbury coming up, rivian recalling nearly ever vehicle it's delivered. netta used to be mega, but nottian more that's not stopping warm-up street's pop analysts. what has got them to bullish we'll find out as we head to break, it's a mixed bag.

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welcome back to "the exchanges. give you a bit of good news, i guess, even though there's a lot of red in the green. dow is down almost 301, nasdaq down, still down 1.5%, dow down 0.7% trying to find a bright spot we are off the lows of the jamie dimon comments, really the market that may be able to fall down another 20% let's get a check on your sectors. the utilities is in the green.

it's up 0.4% may be being viewed as a safe haven. technology and energy getting hit. semiconductors have been weak all year also new data with the pc sales fell 15% from a year ago it makes sentence. now they don't need a new computer crude oil coming offer its highs, though still the only sector in the green for the year all right. let's get micro now, and get a check on some mover. and talk about some upgrades why not? find some opportunity. the prospect of higher margins is not yet baked they're expecting it to beat consensus when they report, thanks to a strong product line. and restaurants tech player toast getting upgraded from

mizuho, sales is making it a buy here toast is not up, but it got the upgrade. so pay attention now pay attention to seema mody. >> brian, here's what's happening at this hour more information is coming out about russia's widespread attacks in ukraine after russia claimed that ukraine blew up a bridge in crimea russian attacks have stilled at least four in the southeast sid of dnipro. president biden is slamming the russian missile attack throughout ukraine he says the strikes show, quote, utter brew taught of president putin's war on the ukrainian pam. on the news tonight how western allies are responding, tonight at 7:00 p.m. eastern. in the nfl, the carolina panthers have fired coach matt ruhle after the team's loss on

sunday he had a start of 1 ha-4 opening for the season brian, that's the latest, back to you, $62 million, seven years, getting fired after 2 1/2 years, i'll tell you what, you can get fired and be set for life >> it can work that way. >> it's happened to a lot of college coaches. seema, thank you very much coming up, could small-cap stocks be flashing a big buy signal harry is here with what what could be a bullish sign. and throughout his span heritage among, here is jose cele, ceo of restaurant brands interpret national >> i think the story of the

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michael is back. and he's more dangerous. maybe the only way he can die... is if i die too. [ screaming ] all right. welcome back to "the exchange. here's non-breaking news it's been a rough year for stocks p kind of shocking, huh but the deal long term is to entice low, sell high. where is an area of outperformance the russell 2000 has managed to hold on to its gains since the big drop back in june, still up

about 3% since then. our next guest still sees opportunities there. harry wald, good to have you on again. no one is saying the small caps are killing it, but they're just not making new lows. >> there's some early signs of that really for the market overall. this isn't a trading call. obviously the market is under pressure, and have a -- and the ten-year is about 3.5% with that said, there are some signs that a market bottom is forming. the notable is that the small-cap stocks held the june low on this most recent late q3 move to the down side, where the s&p 500 made a lower low what that indicates to us is the

weakness in the cap-weighted benchmarks is masking this internal breadth, which is the mere opposite of what you would expect to see at a market top. it makes higher highs, small caps mach a lower high, so we have the near opposite of that we have noted the relative ratio also improving typically bullish for all. we found that period of small cap leadership has correlated to a rising s&p 500 so the add it all up, not out of the woods just yet, but as we kind of discussed last week on the show, brian, i do think an opportunity is forming for the long-term investor. >> is it time -- i know you have some individual names, ari, but is it time to start to nibble at the russell 2000 or the sml small-cap index now in general >> depends on your time highsen, if it's 12 months owl, i think

this is a great time to buy small caps what is driving that, one sector standout one the russell 2000 are the industrials. so it was a driver of that stock improvement. it's a group that you're starting to see that strength expand across capitalization it captures the breadth of improvement across that sector, so it would be a name lie spx, technologies, which we covered at oppenheimer, but even at large caps, some of the companies lie cummins, also seeing a trend reversal. this iskind after confusin company, only because you see spx and you think it's the s&p 500, but this is a charlotte-based company. they make hvac

heeding and cooling systems. spxc, what are you seeing in this chart area, which is so interesting to you >> $2.5 billion market cap, covered by brian blare at oppenheimer. the standout in the charts is that it's one of the -- when the market was rallying in the summer, here's a stock that pushed above the 200-day average. now during this second leg lower, while some stocks have fallen below that june lows, it's a stock able to uphold, because they think the worth is behind it. that's an indication of relative strength the 200-day average comes in around $53 that's a risk/reward, as long as you're above $53 support, once market conditions firm, which we do expect, i think there's a

stock that could reassert itself, talking about new highs above the prior peak at $68. >> sit tight, ari, we'll have a bit of breaking news on the fed, but don't go anywhere. we're going to come back with another stock pick right now fed vice chair lael brainard making documents. steve leashman, what is she staying? >> she's saying that monetary policy will need toe restrictive for some kip but see how employment and the economy and inflation are adjusting. it will take some time for the cumulative timing to -- and moderation, she says for monetary policy is only partly realized one of the things he points to, is that inflation, what we call core services, ex-food and energy are expected to ease

slowly, so she's paying close attention to the outlook as well as global risks as well. rebalancing in the labor market, and the second half, will be limited, and she's expecting flat gdp growth this yeeismt it's having some effect, not sure, brian, if any or all the this amounts to the sense that main brainard wants to go -- but the touch of being restrictive for some time. brian? >> we look at her as more of the less hawkish, but now you have these comments it's kind of hard to read exactly. we almost need a deet-plot for the fed members, and where they are individually and how they change over -- can you create that we need that, the liesman light bright fed index had i know you were going to

talk about it, i would have brought it with me, but what i'm looking at here is the difference between the top and the bottom off dot plots is not very much. so however do muchish brainard may be, we haven't had a chance to talk to her in a bit, so i don't think there's a lot of space between the hawks and the doves. you know, with this idea that a dove may only want to raise to, i don't know, 4%, and a hawk may be at 5? i think that's the best you can say. >> we need a new bird. what is the most boring bird, like a fed pigeon. is there something in the middle >> i don't -- i don't want -- i'm going to pass on that question. >> osprey? kestrel? emu. >> pigeon has its place.

>> maybe it's the fed albatross on the market. >> there you go. [ laughter ] >> steve liesman with some breaking news. i went through all the birds ari, we're going to come back to you. we cut you off cmi, cummins engine, this seems counter-intuitive to me. if i believe we're going into recession, i get it the symptoms apparently look good to you. >> they are good, and i think that indicates that the market is already pricing over a nine-month period. >> about the ismpi i think we've

had a surrendering of the dividendsive leaders on this move, the downturn, and now some improvement. i think that's telling -- spx technologies and cummins. thanks for all the breaking news. shares of rivian are down today on news of a recall. pretty much is now being recalled we'll talk about what happened, ald how do you fix a car with no deerships. the details with phil are next

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indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire welcome back shares of electric truck maker rivian are down sharply today, about news it's recalling nearly ever truck it's ever delivered to find out exactly what is going on, phil lebeau has the

details. it's like a loose bracket and then a steering column that sounds serious. >> it's a fastener that is part of the steering mechanism within the vehicle, and, look, this is a case where they believe it's a relatively easy check and fix in terms of all the vehicles impacted you say it's almost every vehicle that they have delivered. that's correct, but let's be clear, we're talking about 13,000 vehicles. it's not like they're recalling 3 million vehicles the issue is the steering fastener which could potentially cause people to lose control of the steering there's been no accidents or injuries, but the small thing to do is recall the vehicles and get them check they have build approximately 15,000 vehicles since the production started what the recall does is that it raises questions about that ability to ramp up manufacturing. they cut their production for last year. they already cud their guidance down for 25,000, which, by the

way. they have been sticking with they say they do expect to hit 25,000 what do the analysts think about the recall yes, we have seen what investors are saying, but you take a look at shares of rivian. dan ives says this is a speed bump similar thoughts from other analysts truist is saying unlikely to have an impact on the outlook. they're not saying, well, we see there will be a big impact it will very a anegligible the entire complex is under pressure the ev stocks we're talking about, tesla, now you see that tesla has gone positive, but it was negative for most of the day. this does raise questions that they have to address when the earnings come out early next month, about the ability to get beyond the growing pains when you are a start -up auto maker

>> they have set up a 1-800 number, and they're working -- there's nobody who can go in and check the fastener it just needs to be torqued if there's an issue in many cases thought not an issue, and if it needs to be adjusted, they'll adjust it. that's essentially howl they'll do it. in some areas, let's say northern california, the san francisco area, there are a number of arrivance out there. they'll set up a pop-up recall, repair station, if you will appreciate it. >> you bet. stocks have certainly been stuck. what happens ahead is what you care about, right? one of the street's top analysts

is buys, and maybe some names to avoid as well. that's coming up stick around would be the last thing on my mind. hey mom, i go play video games? sure, after homework. thankfully, voya provides comprehensive solutions and shows me how to get the most out of my workplace benefits. what's the wifi password again? here you go. cool. thanks. no problem. voya helps me feel like i've got it all under control. because i do. oh she is good. voya. well planned. well invested. well protected. zero-commission trades for online u.s. stocks and etfs. and a commitment to get you the best price on every trade, voya. well planned. which saved investors over $1.5 billion last year. that's decision tech. only from fidelity. what should the future deliver? (music) progress... (music) ...innovation... (music) ...discovery?

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a quick market check, the dow is about to turn positive.

it was positive earlier, it went negative the jamie dimon comments, and then the lead brainard, but maybe doving out a bit jamie dimon is a really smart guy. could it be he's saying things could be really bad, maybe trying to tweak the fed's thinking a little bit? is she crazy like a fox? we'll see. it doesn't get better when you get gran ullr.

it's a tiktok world, and we all just live in it. i would view this as a semipositive yes, if you own them, you've gotten hit, but if you have capital to allocate, i don't think amazon is going away i'll bet they'll be significantly higher a decade from now, right? >> i think so, i hope so, and i'm pretty certain about that. look, the space, consumer tech, consumer internet has ham are for reasons we all know. that's the setup you have to think 12 months from

now, what will it look like? we had 15-year highs in revenue growth rates that meant we had, you know, multiyear lows in terms of the year-to-year growth rates, but the costs start normalizing. i hope, i assume, and we they have at evercore that inflation will definitely have moderated we hopefully will have worked through, hopefully won't be that steep. our guess is they'll start moderating as well i think you look at the best quality assets in the case, but you have to be hard money focused on it. amazon is on that list, google and facebook is on that list netflix we just readily upgraded, and uber, which is also turning the corner.

>> haven't etfs impacted big tech worse than any other group? sell the etfs, there's a lot of, i don't know if i would call it external pressure, but i wonder how many are selling them just because of who they are, and these stocks are the market, mark >> well, i'm not sure about that, brian. you may be right i'm going to jump aside from the etf question just make some points you called out a cup the stocks that got hammered a snap, for example, just an xwloegs in the estimates there facebook had these massive headwinds including all these apple privacy changes. netflix. netflix hit a wall in terms of its subscriber growth. it absolutely should have been hammered, especially stocks that traded at multiz a super-high

multiples. the 20 times price to sales were in a rear-view mirror, but certainly for a couple years most likely. amazon, one of the best assets out there is about as macro exposed of any company that i know of, that i follow, just on the demand side, but clearly on the costs side, shipping, oil, labor, et cetera you're going to be comping against that and scale against it as they normally do that's one of the reasons if you get a chance to buy at a 230% discount, you buy it it's a dhq, dislocated high-quality stock. >> there may be more pain at it. jamie dimon said we could -- don't expect amazon to turn around tomorrow, right you have to right it out. >> there's two risks, the multiple and the earnings. multiples had come down dramatically

they also overrated. it's easy to say there in hindsight there was a covid bounce in terms of the multiples. over the last 12 months, which is a healthy thing now, you're picking out a lot of the multiple risks now it's down to the estimates one things -- we've very negatively skewed revisions the last couple quarters, but the one thing i like is i've heard it from google, from facebook, from amazon, they're managing expenses, they're eats doing layoff, managing expenses. they absolutely should do that, but that tells us the earnings estimates rick is coming down. still high, but the companies are doing what they can to manage down that risk. >> mark mahaney, appreciate your steady voice thank you. there could be tailwinds

ahead, what are those in and who may be poised to benefit dow is now positive. buying you. and buying your starter home. or whatever this is. but the things that last a lifetime like happiness, love and confidence... you can't buy those. but you can invest in them. we believe that your investments should work harder for the future you imagine. and that's where our strategic investing approach can help. t. rowe price. invest with confidence.

♪ welcome back like much of the market, the beaten-down cloud computing names have been down near their low, but tailwinds abound, and that could lead to gains with some of the biggest players. frank collins is here with a story. >> cloud stocks are lower today on interest rate pressure, moving about 20 basis points higher, all three major cloud etfs near their intraday lows, less than 2% off their 52-week lows, but the transition to cloud is real. seeing strong growth even as recession concerns d. but it's important to know that that spending has declined. still q4, many of they beaten-up names, including citi, operating

into it and saying they can capitalize on the return to office, and megatrends cybersecurity spending has been a strong upward trend, putting price targets on crowdstrike and zscaler. for cybersecurity and the overall growth potential, but of course rising rates are impacting. with concerning debt levels focusing on companies with more debt than cash, that includes digital ocean and economy technologies brian, back over to you. frank holdland, thank you. that is does it for us here on "the exchange." coming up on "power lunch," toast. shares giving up all their earlier games. we'll hear from the annual it's behind the upgrade call. that's in the next hour. in a show from ten years ago, melissa and i will be anchoring. >> also "power lunch."

>> it feels so good, but you're so far away. >> by design by dine. [ laughter ] see you in a couple minutes. welcome to "power lunch," everybody. chip checks, the global sellout, getting caught up in a geopolitical value are there any beaten down names. tesla coming off a week it saw drop 15% the bulls cites potential for strong earnings growth two analysts with two different opinions, just minutes away. brian? >> we certainly have more to do here stocks are way off their lows. that's the good news, the dow in the green, but earlier today they hit their lowest level in two years. investors remaining focused on a lot of things, but jamie diming to our colleague juliann