i know there are liquidity problems there. >> right. >> if that's the context of the question, i'm good. >> thanks for take three stock lunch and then some dessert. >> like fast food. >> thank you for watching "power lunch. see you tonight at 5:00 on "fast". >> and "closing bell" begins right now. see you tomorrow stocks are starting the week on a shaky footing, though making a decent comeback we took a hit when jamie dimon told cnbc how much more downside there could be for the market. >> there could be another 20% and, you know, i think like the next 20% will be more painful than the first. >> then stocks gained ground back after comments from fed vice chair lael brainard. >> moving forward deliberately and in a data dependent manner will enable us to learn how economic activity, employment and inflation are adjusting to the cumulative tightening in order to inform our assessment

of the path of the policy rate. >> we're going to have annual sus of all of those headliner comments throughout the show the make or break hour for your money. welcome to "closing bell." i'm sara eisen coming up we will speak with the president of dow component honeywell about how slowdowns are impacting his business and sustainable fuel efforts, big announcement today the market dashboard, commentator mike santoli, where after the brutal sell-off on friday, pockets of strength today, mostly in the defensive areas but materials are higher and industries >> yes it's not an across-the-board new down lag in the market it's semiconductors and some of the cyclical areas that are pressure points. the market is yap hennive -- apprehensive and how aggressive the fed has to be and what economy is going to do encapsulates what we've been dealing with at the lows the s&p 500 was above the prior low for the bear

market down september 30th so you he see we're hanging around this area, not really breaking aggressively yet and then down 25% from the peak threshold as well. that's where we did hit the low as of now september 30th the bond market is a story even though the u.s. cash bond market is closed. the bond futures are open and the bond etfs are open in europe you're seeing new highs in government yields and something we've not seen here. in the uk and germany, you're seeing new highs in yields, the etfs in treasuries is suggesting we might have made a similar move that does capture all we've been dealing with in terms of, you know, exactly how aggressive central banks are going to be, what the infect is going to be we can't wait very comfortably for inflation to cooperate and here you see, the uk at this new high level there around 4.5%

then, you know, germany which started negative is 2.3, 2.4 at this point. >> the bank of england did come out and extend its emergency bond buying program to try to stabilize the bond market. >> extend it, but it's not indefinite i think everyone is focused, it's going to have an end point and can the market absorb the supply beyond that also there was reminders from ecb officials over the weekend saying we're not sure the market understand exactly what inflation is going to look like and how much more we have to do. whether it's, you know, perfectly connectable to what's going on in terms of central banks, clearly the yields are having their way with the market. >> overseas yield up the dollar stronger, stocks don't like that combination. >> everybody knows that stocks are kind of getting oversold and there's sort of this idea of a very potential violent fourth quarter rally waiting at some level and you have two-sided frustration or at least anxiety in the market. >> mike, thank you

we'll see you later. lots of economic data coming up this week but top of mind has got to be september cpi inflation number that's coming out on thursday which will be closely watched by investors and by the federal reserve. jpmorgan's ceo jamie dimon was asked by cnbc europe today about inflation and the whole macro landscape and how much more downside there could be for the market listen. >> they may have a ways to go. it really depends on the soft landing, hard landing thing. i don't know the answer. it's hard to answer that it could be another ease 20% you know, i think like the next 20% will be more painful than the first. rates going up another 100 basis points are more painful than the first hundred because people aren't used to it. when all is said and done i think negative rates will have been a complete failure. >> another downside. joining us the head of the equity trading at webb bush and you feel the bear market is in tact and any rally should be

sold, correct? >> that's correct. we've been in a very tough stance all year really the fed pivot started november last year and been almost 11, 12 months now and any rally we've seen has been wmet with a lot o supply i don't think that changes so long as the fed continues to tighten and it's been on an aggressive path of tightening about 3.25%. the fed's fund rate the presumption at this point is for another 75 basis points hike baked for the november 2nd and coming off a strong jobs report that's where we'll be. >> dimon said rates going up are more painful because people aren't used to it. is that something you feel as we try to grapple whether we're going to get another 100 basis

points of tight ing from this fed? >> well, whether or not it's 100 basis points i think that's pretty close to what our cycle peak is if we're taking a look at consensus measures right now. we're at about 4.6, 4.65% for a cycle peak in rates by early 2023 you know, it's a very, very tough environment for equities and as we've got p/es and multiples both under attack, you know, it's just very tough for stocks to make any kind of meaningful move higher in this environment and this is all just up against really q3 earnings coming up midweek here. >> but here's how they could go meaningfully higher. we've seen this before during the strong days and that is, when there's a feeling that fed is starting to calm down about raising interest rates and today we heard from vice chair lael brainard and while no pivot telegraphed or anything like

that the kidnappers and awareness about the global risks she cited about liquidity issues, here she says monetary policy will be restrictive for some time to ensure that inflation is back to target so they're still singing the inflation tighter policy -- tighter policy hymn book but also getting increasingly aware about the global risks and if the market sniffs that out, couldn't that be a buy signal? >> sara, i think that's a great point. we're getting very close towards the end of this tightening cycle, so as we're getting close to the end of it, we've probably got another 75 in november and then we'll see what happens after that but nonetheless, we're at or near the end of it once investors start to believe that we are, in fact, near the end of this cycle, that could be -- that could certainly make for a great tailwind for

equities and what can start to move markets higher. teen between here and then there's a lot of work to be done we've moved up in earnest 300 basis points the a short period of time. there's a lag effect to that markets have been getting hit all year and will probably continue to stay in a very tough spot, but as we start to come off of some of the hawkish rhetoric and get maybe a little bit more dovish, we can start to move higher. you know the rba, australia's reserve bank a week ago monday, raised by -- >> they did less. >> they did less they raised 25 basis points which was versus a 50% basis points hike. that move on monday you saw the rally on monday and tuesday, new zealand's bank came out tuesday and raised 75 basis points and was hawkish and i think that just goes to show you if we start to your point, if we start to sniff out any dovish sentiment from the fed, there's

a lot of pent up demand for equities to move higher. you know, on a fixed income markets with bonds, continuing to come under selling pressure, that has to abate at some point before equities can find some footing here. >> yeah. you're not saying that -- yeah, a lot of people looking for 4.5 on the two year. >> we're close. >> we're close 4.3 with the bond market close today. we'll see if it comes tomorrow thank you. from webb bush, appreciate it. dow component honeywell announcing a new way to use ethanol in jet fuel to meet sustainable aviation fuel mandates we'll talk to the company's president about that news and how fears of a globally recession are impacting honeywell's business you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc.

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and this is the perfect time to join them... see how easy it is to save hundreds a year on your wireless bill over t-mobile, verizon, and at&t. talk to our switch squad at your local xfinity store today. honeywell shares trading higher today announcing a new process for creating aviation fuel using ethenol this is part of an effort to meet the new targets laid out by the biden administration and the european council of increasing the percent ent of jet fuel supply made in a sus stapeble. joining me is vimal kapur, the brand new coo. welcome. >> thanks. appreciate you having me on the show. >> how big of a deal is this innovation what type of market due see for this product >> if you look at jet fuel is 10% of the transportation fuel,

and, you know, the planes run on, you know, licktryfycation so sustainability is the best way to do it and jet fuel to sustainable fuel is the opportunity. that will mean several refineries have to be operated for this technology so they can take nonfos sul fuel, ethenol being one of them, so we are providing options so that u.s. can hit its target of 3 billion gallons per day by 2030. you feed that with these options and the highest probability we can hit this target. >> i went sort of deep in preparation on -- i don't know if it's saf, sustainable aviation fuel. >> that's right. >> so apparently it only accounts for 0.1% of all jet fuel

and -- >> correct. >> the u.s. wants to go to 100% of u.s. aviation fuel demand by 2050, is that realistic? >> yeah. so the goal has to be split. the first goal 10% by 2030 with the range of technology that exists today, is achievable, by 10% by 2030 is the number i talked about 3 billion gallons per year then ramps up to 2035, 2040 and 2050 everything in energy transportation is tough. using ev is tough. using sustainable aviation fuel, certainly it's a task with the technology and innovation. >> so overall, vimal, maybe tell us how big of a business -- you said it's going to be a big market how big of a business this is going to be for you and what the business is looking like at this point in time where, you know, the stock is down 17% or so this year, pretty much in line with industrials, and there are a lot

of concerns about slowing demand and a lot of parts of your business >> yes we talked about this opportunity, we were in the business of creating refining in the last several years and we're repurposing our customers for sustainability fuel, high growth and carbon capture and believe that the part of our business which was serving chemicals will get equal well as we move forward. long cycle and short cycle the long cycle businesses like aerospace and performance materials and technologies are seeing less per share. and they are businesses more cost to the cycle. we're reducing some of the economic activity in front of us

like all around we see on balance, honeywell has performed well even in a tough industrial cycle in 2023. >> and what about pricing? it's been good for you, up 8.5% or so. are you concerned that that's going to start to come down as we see different parts of the economy at least deflate or disinflate >> we don't see lack of inflation at least, maybe a few commodities have come down but labor hasn't come down, for example. that has moved up compared to the first six months of the year we continue to look at pricing opportunities in a careful manner there are pocket we was to make sure that our volumes don't collapse at the same time you want to make sure we don't miss, you know, an opportunity the short answer is we continue to see inflation as we saw in the first of the year and we have to be responsible to keep

up with the price of inflation >> geographically, obviously, there are differences in the economies. europe dealing with the energy crisis can you talk about some of the relative performance and what you're seeing in demand across the globe? >> clearly europe is at least seeing a lot more pressure in growth compared to america we will continue to see good performance. china continues to be also not as high growth as it used to be. over the couple years the news on covid shutdowns then performance in oil and gas in the middle east and also in india. it's a mixed bag for us. for every good news there's a little bad news. on balance i think we have a balanced portfolio ahead. >> vimal, thank you for joining us. >> thank you. >> appreciate it. >> vimal kapur the ceo and president of honeywell.

the dow has just gone positive on the session. we've been all over the map. we started the day higher, tipped lower, as low as 286 points down on the dow and now marching up again into the close. amgen the biggest contributor, merck, mcdonald, boeing, caterpillar fueling the rise s&p 500 down 0.4% but improving. four sectors now positive. the nasdaq down half a percent and small caps are faring better down a quarter of 1%p wall street is buzzing about former fed care benn bernanke receiving the nobel peace prize for economics. why that's interesting given the fed hike debate. later, toni will weigh in on renewed selling pressure with the nasdaq down around 0.5% for the day. 34% or so for the year we'll be right back.

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what is waultsz buzzing

about? the former fed chair ben bernanke receiving the nobel peace prize for economics for the work he's done looking at banks during a financial crisis. he shares the award with two other economists that came up with a model on banks, their role in society, their vulnerabilities. bernanke led research on failed banks in the great depression and put it in practice in the 2008 financial crisis when he led the feds to cut rates to 0, bond buying program with the central bank and work with governments to bail out banks, preventing a collapse of the financial system it's interesting timing now because of the situation we're in the unwind of all that powell is raising interest rates at the fastest pace and trimming the balance sheet in an unprecedented way to fight inflation. here's bernanke discussing interest rates and inflation and where we're at right now listen >> a really good question is,

where will interest rates be in the long run i don't portend to know, but i think that inflation will come down over time, that the economy will rebalance over time and when that happens i think we'll see lower interest rates, perhaps not as low as before the pandemic, but i think we'll see interest rates that are, again, relatively low going forward. >> and while there are cracks in the markets right now, banks are considered in better shape at least here in the u.s. bernanke said as much. and next time around, saying the system could prove difficult because of politics. the politics of bailouts, not to mention the ramp in inflation we're dealing with and the massive -- as an economist warned today washington is becoming more gun shy about allocating credit to any sector, even one as important as finance and banking which could some day turn the next financial crisis into a doozy

politicians around the world would be wise to read the papers of these three nobel laureates and heed their warnings. let's bring in steve who has been following the address, the speech from lael brainard for the current fed vice chair i'm curious what you made of ben bernanke's remarks and where we are today? >> you know, as you say, it's very appro po right now that ben bernanke should be brought to the forefront and the work he did and the question as to how much should be done for the banks. i think if the government is going to do less that's probably a good idea in terms of credit allocation ben bernanke was asked about the issue regarding fragility in the market, he said the risk out there but there's a difference between the great financial crisis, the great financial crisis was caused by problems in the financial system here problems in the financial system are a fallout of that, but if left to fester too long

they could add to the problem. vice chair lael brainard talked about the idea and said we have a quote here from her regarding that where she he talks about being fragility in the markets here we also recognize that liquidity is a little fragile in core markets and so we're carefully monitoring liquidity conditions in those markets some people sara, as you might imagined, raised their eyebrows at that remark there is fragility out there, but how much and how widespread is the question that worries a lot of people right now. >> because any time anybody on the fed, especially her, as the vice chair, makes a comment, steve, where they're cautious and not just job number wasn't inflation and we have a lot more work to do on that, it makes people wonder whether they are starting to think okay, let's see what the damage that's being done here, especially her, you know, she was -- she was an international policy maker at the treasury. >> but sara, if i could go back to where you started this segment or one point you had the

dow rise, it may be that the dow is up on brainard's comments in part because she started to make a case for caution in raising rates. i guess back to negative again we have this volatility out there. if you look at the tale of the tape there was a pop, sara, on brainard's remarks and she talked about some of the reasons to be cautious and also the idea that all of the tightening the fed has done has not yet shown up in the economy and you can hear that along with the comments about concerns about fragility as a reason for the fed to do something less than it's doing. >> yes a change, i would say, a change in tone, more cautious tone. thank you. steve liesman. al> up next, we've got a top anyst on the outlook for tech stocks and whether tesla looks attractive following last week week's sell-off. we'll be right back. to weather all ups and downs your business might go through. look at all that talent. ♪♪

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we're following tech stocks. another rough day for the nasdaq after the big downturn at the end of last week tesla was one of the names hit hard in the sell-off, turning in its worst week since march 2020. the company is making inroads we learned in china, setting a record for monthly deliveries for september. joining us is bernstein's tony sacconaghi your market perform you're not particularly excited about tesla. is it the fund mentals or the market backdrop? >> we've been a little bit more cautious on tesla for a couple reasons. one is we still think its valuation is very high relative to other automotive stocks and we worry fundamentally it may be

difficult for tesla to continue to sustain this 50% growth rate it promised going forward and i think, quite frankly, despite the good data from china today, china is probably the one area of the world that we, and i think more broadly investors, are increasingly worried about. >> i should correct myself your under perform rating on tesla, $150 price target why do you think china is a worry if we've got those good delivery numbers today >> it happened over the last several months is, the best leading indicator of tesla's demand in a given region is, how long you have to wait to get a car. in china,that was 14 to 22 weeks, three to six months ago it's now one to four weeks and so tesla had a very large backlog in china it has a very limited backlog in china right now. we've seen that happen also in the u.s. we think there are more

plausible explanations for why that's happening in the u.s. in china, it does feel as though we are potentially starting to see some incremental softness in demand and that's, you know, for a growth stock like tesla, it's all about growth and top line growth and, so i do think this is an issue that we all need to pay attention to going forward. >> yeah. you think it's going down to 150 and apple is a market perform at 170. apple has held up relatively well against the market. even when it gets hit pretty hard it's still -- it hasn't been making new lows, why? >> apple has been viewed as sort of this stable consumer franchise. they did very well during the pandemic and they've done quite well this year, and so folks view apple as this great consumer franchise and brand that is relatively steady. i think, you know, the big

question is, like many other companies, is apple impervious to potentially weakening consumer spend going forward and shifting spend consumers will be increasingly their purse strings will be tightened because of higher rates but the second you this potential concern that we're seeing in the pc world where, you know, folks who are spending a lot on electronics during the pandemic now that world has opened up shifted the dollar spend away from electronics and home furnishings to other things like experience, travel, entertainment, et cetera that's the trulen dollar question for apple, particularly over the next, you know, eight weeks or so when we get more data points and the true strength of the iphone cycle, can apple continue to plow through despite the fact that it did well during covid and despite the fact that we have an incrementally weakening consumer. >> and the latest data was positive for apple showing that

global pc shipments fell across the board, len nova, hp, dell, apple was the exception and they rose 44% you cover a lot of these companies, tony. i saw you put out a new note on ibm and cautious there are there any companies within your sector that you cover that you like and would represent a good buying opportunity? >> the apple and ibc question because ibc collects data largely submitted by pcoems. apple does not participate in sharing its data with services like ibc or gartner and historically, ibc and gartner's track record for predicting apple on quarterly basis has not been great certainly the numbers look very good i would be cautious about extrapolating them. >> got it. >> to your question about broader tech, look, we think, you know, tech is fairly to

slightly overvalued. we're not particularly bullish on tech. we are worried we may have earnings estimates go down and there may be more downside to the market and as a result, we prefer really inexpensive, more defensive technology names companies that i follow like dell and hewlett-packard enterprise that are trading at literally 5 to 7 times earnings, we think have relatively less downside in the near to medium term and so that defensive posturing leads us to those names. >> got it. tony, thank you. good to check in with you. tony sacconaghi. appreciate it from bernstein. take a look at where we stand right now in the marketsp we are higher on the dow back and forth around the flat line we have recovered nicely since that speech from fed vice chair lael brainard perhaps with a little bit more caution than her colleagues at the fed on raising rates. talked about global risks and liquidity risks. didn't make a case for a pivot but sensing of caution in the remarks. the s&p 500 is down a half a

percent ent right now you have strength in materials, industrials, staples and utilities. the nasdaq is down about three quarters of 1% a number of automakers today including rivian, down sharply on news of a huge recall of nearly all of its vehicles we're going to talk to an analyst about how much that could cost the company. you can listen to "closing bell" on the go by following the "closing bell" podcast on your favorite podcast app we'll be right back. cnbc sector is sponsored by sector spdr etfs power e*trade's award-winning trading app makes trading easier. with its customizable options chain, easy-to-use tools, and paper trading to help sharpen your skills, you can stay on top of the market from wherever you are. power e*trade's easy-to-use tools make complex trading less complicated. custom scans help you find new trading opportunities. while an earnings tool helps you plan your trades

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. check out today's stealth mover ppg industries investors painting the stock red. the maker of paints and industrial coatings slashing its third quarter earnings outlook because of currency headwinds softening demand in europe and china but the company is brushing off concerns about rising inflation saying raw material costs are moderating in some regions the stock down 2.6%. semiconductor stocks are falling to a one-year low today. up next a top analyst on whether chips are starting to look cheap. a rough ride for gm, ford and rivian when we talk you inside the market zone we're back negative down 10 points on the dow. hey professor, subscriptions are down but that's only an estimated 15% of their valuation. do you think the market is overreacting? how'd you know that? the company profile tool, in thinkorswim®. yes, i love you!! please ignore that.

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we are now in the "closing bell" market zone. cnbc's market commentator mike santoli is here to break down the trading day, phil lebeau on gm and ford and bernstein's stacy rascon on the chip stock we'll kick it off with the broader markets, negative again. can't decide which side we want to be on today the important thing is, we're off the lows which were down 285 points earlier on the dow. got some warning from jamie dimon who is sounding bearish, talking about a slide in the s&p, recession in six to nine months fed speak to chew on, more cautious than the super hawkish commentary we've gotten lately the bottom line on the fed the market is pricing in, where are we on the terminal rate or peak fed funds rate, 4.65

is it starting to get ahead of itself >> even above that this morning and the fed funds market was taking it cause from what was happening globally that's right in the zone that most fed officials seem to be targeting. every time the investors have felt comfortable that they had their arms around exactly what the policy destination was it gets pushed out farther and the time clock restarts because we haven't gotten enough good data on inflation, which is why we can talk about the market being over sold. i can talk about investors fleeing into cash and tremendous volumes last week. also the market kind of hovering at minus 25% levels. seasonal factors look better unless the cpi number gives you something to latch on to say we're starting to have an effect on the inflation picture, it might not matter that much, even though all those things are atmospheric conditions to say we've priced in fed risk as well as economic softening. >> higher again on the dow

cloud stocks, take a look, under serious pressure today including snowflake, down nearly 10% let's bring in frank collins for more what's driving the action here >> the broader group of cloud stocks are trading lower on interest rate rate pressure. just about 1% off its 5 2 week low. the other two less than 1% snowflake one of the hardest hit due to its sky high valuation. see it down 9, 10% throughout the day. i hate to be a broken record about this but these stocks almost move exclusively in an inverse relationship to rates when it comes to the 10-year the rates go higher the cloud and enprize names go lower you can see over the past three noonz happening consistently except for a period in august many thought could be the bottom for the cloud stocks where is the bottom when it comes to the cloud transition, that's a stable and consistent global trend more than 20% increase in cloud spending year

over year in 2022, but it seems these stocks they can't find footing. the question especially in a recessionary environment which one will survive the hyper scalers like amazon, microsoft, azure and google will survive. the top of the stock, which one will survive >> wow that's an existential one. thank you very much. in the meantime mike, what are earnings expectations looking like for this group which gets battered around >> earnings expectations have been moderating but so have valuations morgan stanley had some work today showing that software companies as a group, cloud is going to be probably the biggest chunk of that aside from microsoft, are back down to call it price to sales ratios that we saw in the late 2010s. so in other words, well before the pandemic, well before the prepandemic melt down. that means it's all about whether the earnings growth rate cans come through. you have too many companies that came public in the software

area, all promising to be the next big platform, the next big thing that they were going to have the sustainable advantage and that's what's been questioned here. naums like snowflake going down 9% it's one of the more expensive ones and has a distant sort of moment when it's going to be proven whether it's a huge success or not and it also was way off its lows days like this, the market goes hunting for stocks not yet trading toward their lows and takes some of the value. >> frank mentioned there's a real existential question about who survives the cycle who is the market worried about? >> i think the market is more worried about some of the narrower kind of just, you know, one act type names that have one messaging app or we have, you know, one type of customer relations software that, you know, hit it big and it was all about how we were going to take over a lot of the market share from somebody else that's where i think you've already seen a lot of the carnage. that's a lot of the stocks that

came public in the last three years that have been set aside and it's not really as much about the ones that seem to have something of an advantage like a snowflake or a palintear it's what you want to pay for it, not whether they're going to survive. >> the automakers, gm and ford among the biggest decliners on wall street today. ubs downgrading gm to neutral from buy slashing the price target from 38 to 56, cutting its rating on forward from neutral. inflationary pressures and recession risks will likely lead to deteriorating demand for autos. jim cramer called it a late call on ford. doesn't agree with it. phil lebeau joins us how tight is the supply and how quickly is inventory growing >> it's very tight and it's not growing as fast as perhaps projection in the ubs note let me give you perspective. jd power says the current day supply, this is at dealerships,

in transit, across the nation, 31 days, to put that in perspective normal for the auto industry is 65 to 70 days. by the way the low point was 25 days supply a couple months ago. it brings up the question, sara, will we get to over supply one of two things would have to happen you would have to see a rapid increase in production from the automakers and remember what they've said about curtailing production because of chip and supply chain issues. that's not changing any time soon okay so what about a big drop in demand you would have to see a huge, a massive drop in demand to the point where you've got about a million vehicles in inventory right now and need to see that go up well, well over 2 million in inventory jd power doesn't expect the market to get the normal until the end of next year and that's normal so there are a number of people in the industry scratching their heads at this call. >> yes right. it's so confusing to figure out demand when you're still so supply constrained i guess is

the bottom line, right, phil >> yes exactly. that is exactly it still more demand than supply. doesn't mean that we're seeing what we saw this summer. but it's still -- we're not close to seeing supply get to a point where you see dealers immediately slashing prices because nobody is coming until door they see a ton of demand. >> phil lebeau, thank you. we will stick with autos and hit rivian because that stock is tumbling after recalling nearly all vehicles delivered, 13,000 cars in totally. looking to fix a potential steering issue, chief investment officer at tiegress financial partners how big of a deal is this for the longer term trajectory for rivian >> long term, i don't think it's that big of a deal and if you want to say every opportunity -- every problem is an opportunity, this gives rivian the opportunity to demonstrate their customer service and their ability to handle mechanical issues that do happen and so far, this is the first reported

significant issue since the car has been in production and they have produced and sold almost 14,000 cars. >> so you see this as a normal problem recalling all of their vehicles they sold >> well, we have seen significantly larger recalls from almost every other automaker and this, luckily, is not really a major mechanical issue. we haven't seen any accidents or heard about major issues and they say they can get this repaired across the delivered fleet within 30 days. >> yeah. i mean i guess it doesn't help the brand and credibility issues you're a buyer of the stock on this stock >> absolutely. we are going to see more happen in the auto industry in the next three years than took place in the entire 120-year combined of the auto industry. we are going to he seat major shift and introduction of electric vehicles and incredible technology, all these

automakers, including rivian, are involving software companies. it's all about connectivity, about the ability to manage, maintain and build the relationship with the customer through connectivity and constant upgrades of features in the cars there's going to be a big shift as, you know, gm has over 30 electric vehicles coming to market by 2025 this is all going to drive increased traffic into the showroom as people, as consumers check out the evs and we're going to see a tremendous upgrade cycle because still, the average car on the road in the u.s. is close to 12 years old. we still have a potential -- >> everybody is doing it now everybody is doing it now. rivian is just one of the many players. >> well -- >> now there's competition a setback like this does seem pretty notable i guess my -- well i'll let you respond, but does it impact the 2022 deliveries at all >> it may. and they may or may not get to 25,000 for this year as

projected. i don't think that is as important as getting the, you know, any issues fixed and close to that would be acceptable. but first of all the more electric vehicles on the market, the more electric vehicles the industry will sell the competition for electric vehicles is not electric vehicles it's gas cars. and the sweet spot of the auto industry is trucks and pick-up trucks pickup trucks are the number one selling vehicle in the industry and rivian has a tremendous first mover advantage. i mean, chevy has ev silverado coming out that's incredible but still not coming until late next year ford has the f-150 lightning, just starting to be available right now, but rivian does have a first mover advantage. they have about 90,000 backlog for the rt and the rt 1 and s1 they also have a hundred

thousand vehicle commitment for ev vans from amazon. i think amazon from the beginning has been a seal of approval for the company. >> agree with that for sure the bulls like that fact thank you. ivan from tigres. two semiconductor ooefs touching 52 week lows, the smh and soxx off 3%, led lower by lam research and marvel after the u.s. announced new export controls on certain advanced computing shipment sold into china. the numbers down 15% year over year bring in bernstein's senior analyst. the china export controls compounding the worry on the cycle slowing down what do you do with these stocks >> yeah. the china export restrictions were not helpful we knew they were coming and we've been waiting for it. there have been incremental piecemeal sanctionses. this codifies them and expands

them i would say the incremental from this in terms of what was put forth was not that big the big incremental is memory cap x equipment which is why the semi caps are down today the other super computer anything related to super computers into china is going to be a no go he beyond that, though, i think everything else is mostly okay i don't think it applies to general purpose, pcs or servers or smartphones i think that is safe that being said, it is -- does represent a larger escalation of people wondering if there's going to be retaliation from china, which i think is why the other names, qualcomm or broadcom not directly impacted but does business in china are getting impacted today as well. >> what about the positioning of the sector into earnings after we got that warning, preliminary results from amd, one of the strongest in the group >> yeah.

so everybody knows pcs are weak and i think people were expecting amd, to miss i would say the miss was bigger than people thought it would be. pcs do not look great. you mentioned some of the pc data that came out they're still falling. i almost feel like they're getting worse by the day it's not like they're low and then stable. they are continuing to get worse as we move into year end that's what happened with amd. i think for the space people are worried numbers in general need to come down and the valuations are starting to reflect that you need to know when the bottom is before people can buy actually, stocks in that sense are okay if that's the last cut. i don't know that we're there for a wide swath of the space. >> there's your headline don't think we're there yet. thank you very much from bernstein. less than two minutes to go as the dow is now negative and falling 90 points.

we've lost it here. >> about a fourth straight down day after the two-day rally last week it's negative under the surface although not dramatically, three to four to one downside to upside volume, more than 90s on friday take a look at the small versus large. small cap 600 index relative to the top 50, the biggest stocks in the index, year to date, shows you widespread the small caps are to the near the recent lows. either the september or june lows a little bit above that. some distinguishing there. they've taken their medicine the volatility index is kind of juice near above 30, 32. the cpi number in a few days i doubt it will be able to relax before we get through that. >> we got four down days here in a row and looks like we're going to get a down close across the board. dow down 84 points amgen the most positive impact on the dow the biggest drag united health the s&p 500 looks like down

0.7% apple is holding up. fed language, concern from jamie dimon on the economy looks like another down, down. see you tomorrow now into overtime with scott wapner all right. sara, thank you very much. welcome to overtime. i'm scott wapner you heard the bells and we're getting started from here at post nine from the no stock exchange in a little bit i will speak to the analyst who sent merck shares surging on why he said it's a stellar stock for your portfolio. our talk of the tape, jamie dimon on the record on the market on the economy and your money and why he says stocks could have a lot more downside to go if things get worse for the economy. if you need money, go out and raise it he said let's bring in asset management dan greenhouse for his reaction to that which we'l