stubborn we're staying on this road no matter what we see. >> if we're dogmatic and not paying attention to the effects along the way, that's always what the market fears. >> even bostic last week sort of gave you a feeling that they could be flexible, too. >> yes. >> we'll see tomorrow. mike santoli with his last word. that does it for us. see you back on the desk "fast money" begins right now. >> right none on "fast," the s&p could drop another 20% from here that's who jpmorgan show jamie dimon is saying and adds that the next 20 will be much more painful than the first 20. why jamie is so bearish and what the traders think of his latest storm warning. plus, auto stocks hitting the skids. gm and ford following after analysts say that we're just a few months away from a natural auto glut. how did we go from three years of unprecedented pricing margin power to oversupply in just a flash? later, so much for safe havens, gold not exactly glittering, crypto crumbling and bond funds this year, well-known ones have performed even worse

than the s&p 500 where can the investors hide in the rough and tumble market? i'm melissa lee. this is "fast money" on the desk, courtney garcia, kiaren fine per and guy adami there was this forecast on how much farther the s&p could fall according to jamie dimon. >> may have a way to fall. depends on soft landing, hard landing, it's hard for me to answer that. it could be another easy 20%, and i think like the next 0% will be much more painful than the first, the next 100 basis points will be more painful than the next 100 people aren't used to it, and i think negative rates when all is said and sdron l have been a complete failure >> another 20y from here that implies the s&p below 2900, a level it's not seen since the depths of the pandemic

dimon warning that the u.s. could fall into recession in six to nine minutes saying the fed, quote, waited too long and did too little stocks already trading near two-year lows. the s&p getting within four points of its worst level since october 2020 the dow falling below 29000 and the nasdaq posting its lowest close since july 2020 and take a look at the tlt, the ultra long bond fund meant to market a hedge against market volatility, as its lost since 2011 f.dimon is right, we're halfway through the selloff, what do you do now besides go into the bunker, dan nate hane? >> i think you want to listen to jamie dimon. he has no reason to opine on the stock market the last bit of what he said about the next 1% in the fed funds is one that a lot of companies and a lot of individual investors and savers, well, save remembers going to do just okay as long us a don't have a lot of your risk as that's the have kind of depleted you know, the thing about 20% to the downside on an s&p that's already down 25% is, that you

know, that would really put us back in where, you know, 2000, to the lows of 2002 and 2007, to the lows in 2009 the s&p 500 sold off 50% we had deep recessions in both of those time periods, and i think the timing of which he says he could be in a recession in six to nine months, the stock market is going to anticipate it and will go there to the levels first and it will round trip to the pre-pandemic high, and if you think about a multiple, talking about this a lot on the show, where does the s&p trough in bear markets, where does it trough during recessions, 14 or 15 times, bank of america just put $200 in s&p earnings for next year. do you that times 14, you get below 3000, that would be 20% lower than here. >> you love jamie. >> i do. >> what do you think of his forecast >> i'm not sure if it was a forecast i think it was could it, absolutely it could. >> he did not use the word easy 20% from here. it's going to be a lot more painful. >> he did say he sees recession

six to nine months out it does make me wonder clearly he has a very good look into the economy, right >> yeah. >> and so is he sort of forecasting -- is he sort of, you know, giving us a little heads up for what he's going to report on friday >> which is a no-no. >> well. >> if you tell everybody at the same time then i guess it's okay i think -- it's not so much about what the earnings are this quarter. it's real behis outlook and really about where he sees the economy. so, you know, this isn't delightful i do think though that if we were in a recession six or nine months from now, i think we would bottom well before economic data bottom. >> right. >> and would i agree with that i don't know if it's a necessary prediction it's all prefaced with if there's a hard landing or soft landing. if we're in a hard landing, there's that possibility of a 20% downside but i also heard him say in here is talking about the consumer's balance sheet and how it is still really healthy i do think that's going to be

interesting when we see the banks reporting here is we have seen the consumers have been able to withstand all the inflation so far and that's what's keeping the economy going. that could maybe lead to some surprises to the upside on earnings, so this is more forward looking but currently if people are still withholding this and if the economy can stay strong, it's not a definitive possibility, but i'm more interested in what this means for the banks that are reporting at the end of the week. >> consumers are strong right now. they have the cash, et cetera, et cetera, guy, but they haven't gotten 100 basis points to come in tightening which they will probably get before not too long from now, and they haven't felt the full effects at all of any of the rate cut that the fed has made so far, so it's a very interesting dynamic. i'm grateful that the consumer is extra strong right now because we're going into an unprecedented amount of tightening to be felt. >> well, i always knew that jamie watched "fast money. now i know that he watch tes with the sound on because he's echoing a lot of the things that we've literally been saying. i want to say since november,

probably longer than that. you know, the fact that he actually made reference to the fact, that you know, they eased for too long and late to -- all those things he's spot on listen, the federal officials probably realize that as well and i'm not looking to dog pile on the rabbit here we've done enough of that. i happen to agree. 2900 is not ridiculous we've said 3400 is probably that's fair value in this environment, and even if the fed were to pause, pivot, stop, you know, give different language to try to assuage some concerns, whether we're in recession or not doesn't maeshts and i will tell you i'm sure it's infuriating to a lot of audience out there that we're in one, not in one because for a lot of people we've been in it for the better part of a couple years. with that said we're absolutely an earnings recession, and at a certain point you're not paying as much for earnings as you were a couple years ago so what's the right multiple we played the right game dan mentioned it

i think savita put a $200 price target in terms of the s&p you look at the hyg, a 15-year low within a couple of points, lqd haven't seen since '08-'09 none of this is particularly good i will say this. it is good news that once again the vix is pushing up to 34 because once we get there the market short-terms bottom. >> the timing is very interesting given that this is the full big giant week of earnings, particularly for the bank earnings. karen, i wonder from your standpoint do you think that the bank stocks and maybe specifically jpmorgan have actually priced in what jamie dimon himself is forecasting >> i mean, i haven't -- i think it's priced in quite a bit. >> mm-hmm. >> i think it's priced -- well, net interest will be okay. it's priced in not great loan growth and pricing in disastrous

investment banking, capital markets, some capital markets will be okay burks i mean, the amount of issuance is down so dramatically, so it's price in that even though -- those arelism kind of earnings, and i think it's pricing in some credit erosion that i don't think we're really going see yet, so, you know, i've thought this for a while i've been wrong, the stock was much higher, but eight times, three dividends, the stock seems to trade down every time they report regardless of how good or bad it is. >> right. >> i'm long. staying long i have a bigger position in bank of america but i'm definitely long bank. >> i agree here, and i do want to look at the banks as an opportunity, and they are so cheap right now. yes, they have -- we would have said that had a while ago and they have gotten cheaper the banks do tend to be the companies that go down the hardest as we're going into recession but also as things are improving, they also tend to be ones that improve the move so if are you of a mindset here that some of this is getting priced

in, and i do think we're close to if not there on the bank earnings, then i do think that this can be an opportunity over the long run. >> it's, of course, the guidance. >> yeah. >> and based on what jamie dimon said, the guidance won't be that great. >> that's the keep he's not going to really change his tune when you think about what the outlook is for, you know, again, for consumer balance sheets it seems like that's the thing that everyone keeps kind of resting on a little bit, but we know, i mean, that's just not going to get that much better here, and we already know, if retail remembers already starting to think about how accommodative they can be, right in front of the holiday season, i think we've seen this now for months what target and walmart have had to say to us about consumers trading down that doesn't really speak that well, especially when you're seeing gas prices have been really sticky here inflation readings are really hot. i mean, listen, at the end of the day, i mean, i think that the stock market to your point is like it will bottom at some point before we have a recession. to guy's point we're in an,

recession so it's a disconnect between what the markets are doing and what the economy is doing, and if you're trading the markets, investing in the market, focus on markets to guy's point about the vix at 34, if we get another leg lower back to 3400, the vix is going to be at 40. what will that tell you? it will be a really good time to take off shorts and a lot of our viewers don't short things and start dollar cost averaging on your way to maybe being down 40% or 50% from the highs. that's the only way to do it because nobody is going to ring the bell at the bottom. >> key fed official is speaking on investment ring our own steve liesman has the latest steve? >> thanks very much. the fed governor brainard saying she's expecting a limited second half rebound and marked down her forecast for flat growthfor this year, the full year also talking about liquidity saying fragility is a little fragile in core markets and the fed is monitoring it carefully charlie etches says very to be

mindful of market policy and person bernanke, awarded the nobel prize speaking to reporters, says there are issues when it comes to liquidity out there, but this is not 2008 which was caused by the financial system rather than the financial system being affected by what's been happening concern about liquidity and comments from brainard we hadn't seen the full effects of the fed etightening led some to conclude that maybe there was some flexibility in the fed policy. evans, of course did, say that he sees the fed raising rates to 4.5% to 4.75% and staying there for quite some time. >> evans said something to the effect there being a premium to waiting and seeing i think is the words he used, a premium i know is the exact word that he used in relationship to seeing what the impast tightening, is and i feel like, you know, just, you know, a woke ago, jeremy siegel, maybe it was two weeks ago, saying that fed speak was monolithic and brainard and etches today, even cracking the door just a little bit to the

idea that there could be, you know, an observation period for the fed. >> yeah. i'm just trying to get a beat. melissa, i hear what you're saying, and it was also, by the way, the question i asked powell that i don't necessarily -- he did say, yeah, there would be a one but in the at this level what i'm trying to figure out, melissa is what's the level of the observation period so to speak. evans seemed to think he's going to put -- go the full monty on this, the4.5% to 4.75% i'm not sure about brainard. you're right to read in the idea that maybe she has more flexibility. personally my take is i could see the idea of getting a 4 and stop an finishing off the year the way you said you would but maybe having some observation. it depends on what they see in markets and the liquidity story, melissa. you saw what happened in europe today. i don't know that that's necessarily having a relationship i'm actually watching for i guess the bond -- the futures will open at 6:00, but you had

20 and 30-basis point increases in the long end in uk and europe, end that's not something that i think causes calm among people. >> steve, it's care. thanks for being on. is it possible that the fed's north star is really positive interest rates positive real rates i should say? >> oh, yeah. >> and that will drive them. >> etches said that right out. he wants to get to a 2% real rate how do you break that down well, you have to have -- i don't know, a 2.5% underlying inflation rate if you're going to go 4.5% that would be 2% he said that's average for kind of restrictive level that the fed has had in previous tightening cycles, so that's what he said that's for sure. by the way, brainard commented today that she sees rates along the spectrum as being a positive right now, so that's definitely something they are aiming for, not just positive, care, but restriskt on top of that >> guys, i know you've got

thoughts on this the fed is really good at putting something out there but also giving you enough information to maybe double and think twice about what they actually said, and i feel like that's what steve is saying in terms of charlie etches specifically when he says going all the way up to 4.5%, to 4.75% and saying there may be some value to observing what the full impact is. >> listen, i will say that over -- since november, i think they have done a magnificent job of telling people, telling the market exactly what their game plan s.whether or not the market has listened along the way, that's the market's problem, but they have done a wonderful job in terms of taking notice of things, steve makes a great point, and i'm glad he made it bond market volatility which is something we've talked about literally for last two years i think it's something that's front and center and something they should watch because i would submit and probably incorrectly, but bond markets shouldn't move the way they are moving maybe it's just the road to price discovery coming off 13

years of free money. maybe that's the pain that we have to feel, but 30 basis point move in developed market economies and bond markets, it doesn't make -- doesn't make a lot of sense to me, and it suggests that there are some cracks under the surface >> steve, we're going to let you g.steve, thank you so much steve liesman. >> pleasure. >> coming, a big red light for some auto stocks downgrades in recalls hitting some of the major players. we'll kick the tires on some of those trades and two staple stocks move today. what analysts say is daunting about the group. more on that ahead don't go anywhere. "fast money" is back in two. this thing, it's making me get an ice bath again. what do you mean? these straps are mind-blowing! they collect hundreds of data points like hrv and rem sleep, so you know all you need for recovery. and you are? i'm an investor...in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to... nasdaq 100 innovations like...

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. welcome back to "fast money. ubs downgrading from sell to neutral cutting gm to a neutral from buy citing demand destruction in a rapid shift to oversupply in the industry that was fast. courtney, what do you mean, the stocks have been trading terribly for a while >> i do think their valuations are significantly lower than their historicals, and i do

think, if anything, it's an opportunity. i found this pretty severe i would say. i mean, we're still in a period where people can't get enough cars or having to buy used cars. why, i think there will be a pullback here as interest rates are rising because people won't be able to afford cars i don't see the severe demand destruction. i thought it was more pessimistic than i was expecting to see. >> well, i mean, hopefully people will still be able it afford cars by the time the cars are available. that's sort of one issue, karen, that we're dealing with in terms of big in how the consumer is facing inflation and all the other rising costs. >> lug auto financing. there's that and gas and what not. a few positives, mostly negative they talked about gm finance which has really had a nice benefit of terminal value of cars being so much higher as they get off lease, but i think

that it does seem to me to be a bit overdone i think the stock clearly isn't reflecting a very robust return. i think we're going to see good inventory development from the third-quarter production that will be good. i do think the buyers in the short term are still for the very high margin cars, and i am concerned about that not having a lot of follow-through into next year. >> guy, gm and/or ford >> mel. >> value trade or value trap >> it's interesting. first of all, i've been dead wrong on these let's just get it out there. 100% going, literally in ford, and this is -- i'm talking to myself you could have made the valuation argument, and it could have been a good argument. there was a point where we all looked like geniuses in ford when the stock doubled from 14 to 28 and here we are round trip they are value traps and have been value traps and will continue to be doesn't seem to be capitulation at all i'm not suggesting that we go

down to 2020 levels that we saw in gm which i think was 24, but, look, there still seems to be some downside. think about ubs to make a call like this in this environment given what we've seen in the broader market and given how miserable the stocks have been for them to make a call like that they didn't do it halfhearted let's say. i'm choosing to use that word instead of the negative word so they obviously come to jesus moment and they are making this call i will say this. auto nation, which hung in there today, through '98 in auto nation and then the party is over have to look at the ground much differently. >> this is ground zero for jamie dimon saying the next 1% in fed funds is going to be painful, and it will be painful for companies like this that have actually been dying to build inventory for demand that they thought existed after the supply chain issues, you know, and a whole host of other things related to the pandemic, and now all of a sudden you find yourself with the fed raising interest rates at the fastest clip they have done in 40 plus

years, and we don't know as an economy how to deal with the stagflationary environment so when you think about to your question, i'm going play your game that you're going ask me to, value trade or value trap. in this environment it's clearly a value trap i'm not saying if you start buying ford at 11 understanding it's going to be a half-size, maybe it goes down that in a bear market or recession, but, again, these stocks are probably going lower for all of those sgleens there's a lot more "fast money" to come here's what's coming up next >> consumer combs, even tried and true staples stocks getting analysts worried but are there still gains to be found in the names they are eyeing next. plus, semi slump restrictions on china chips sending the group to its lowest level in nearly two years so will semi stocks keep getting zapped in the details ahead. you're watching "fast money" live from the nasdaq market site in theim sar 'rback right after this.

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welcome back to "fast money. goldman sachs putting out a double dose of calls on consumer staple names analysts growing cautious on the sector saying relative valuations look daunting procter & gamble neutral to buy and goldman pointing to private labels and fx headwinds pushing sales forecasts lower. goldman upgraded kraft-heinz to a buy calling it one of the few staple names where upside hasn't been priced in analysts seen strong pricing in the food category. one would think, guy, if consumers are making hard choices that they are trading down, that they are going for the lower-priced, you know,

generic store name brand kind of thing. >> that's always been my bailiwick, but that's probably here nor there i love the procter & gamble call i think it's late. we've been talking about it being an extensionive stock for quite some time. not to cast aspersions but it's zenit at 165 you're talking about a stock trading close to 28 times forward earnings with about maybe 8% eps growth. made no sense then and now it's trading slightly below 20 but still rich given their eps growth there's still room to the downside despite the large move we've seen kraft-heinz, my sense is they had to upgrade one to downgrade one and kraft-heinz is as good as anything else but i love the procter & gamble downgrade >> kind of like a would you rather, but i see it as a pair trade because i do like the valuation differential is very big, and i think that probably more for the p & g side being

too expensive, kraft is attractive, but i think the two of them together make a little sandwich hopefully to make money in between. >> sandwich. who does have the stronger pricing here guess, it all goes back to the whole notion of value trader, value trap valuations alone don't tell if you it's a good buy or not a good buy. >> here's the good news, all right? we've all been around the markets for a little bit so this was like a safety trade. people like these things, they outperformed during the pandemic and probably traded okay in the beginning part of the year and at some point they just gave up, right, and now you're seeing analysts downgrade a stock like procter which is a wide any known name and has a dividend yield. that's good from a sentiment standpoint because when a lot of analysts are holding on to the names it means like there's a false sense of security in some of them. again, you know, i think that this goes along with bank of america lowering next yore's eps estimate to a level that none of us thought we started this year where s&p earnings were going to be and to

me this is actually constructive if you're trying to find how do we bottom at some point late this year early next. >> courtney, for instance, would you choose, i guess would you rather. >> would you choose is very similar. >> clorox versus an apple. clorox is a higher valuation than an apple but you might want to pay up for a clorox versus an apple. >> clorox and apple, throwing two other names at me. i do think -- i'm normally not looking at your big-tech stocks. apple has become a lot cheaper here i do like the fact that they are in a good position i think to weather out some downturn in the economy here because they have so much cash on their balance sheets and it has been really a good belle weather if apple recovers the overall stock market so i would lean towards the apple here. >> i'm going ask guy this. i'm just curious, quickly. clorox or apple. clorox is like 30. >> yeah. >> i'll take clorox every day. as you know, i use the clorox

wipes to take my makeup up don't at me on twitter i know it's not a good things clorox has almost been cut in half since the summer of 2020, again, doesn't matter where it was, but just to point that out. valuation is expensive, but it's a tradeable thing right now. i think the hard work has been done on the downside and i think the work is just beginning in apple so in your game of clorox/apple, which by the way the stocks have never been mentioned in the same sentence at "fast money," i take clx. >> i try to push the envelope. new restrictions out of the white house sending semis lower. the impact it will have on the chip stocks going forward. is there another big drop on the crypto horizon wi ey thar hitting the charts when "fast money" returns.

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welcome back to "fast money. another check on how stocks close out the day. all three indices closing out the week posting their fourth negative session in a row. the dow falling 93 points while the s&p dropped three-quarters of a percent and the tech-heavy nasdaq leading the losses with a 1% drop. one sector getting hit hard was the semis. nvidia tumbling after the u.s.

ramped up its chip export rules on friday. china over the weekend calling the move abuse and taiwan signalling it will follow the u.s. rules and taiwan's national day the president doubled down on taiwan's sovereignty saying there is no room-for-compromise on this issue. here to break down all of this, cnbc contributor who has long view senior policy analyst good to have you with us. >> thanks for being with you. >> isn't something called the people's congress happening very soon in the timing of this is very interesting >> yeah, you know, i've have a couple of conversations about timing, melissa, and i promise you it's cones depthal to. your point we have the communist party's 20 parties congress coming up on sunday. we have national day today in taiwan, 10/10, and, of course, these announcements on friday, but all of this, unfortunately, is crammed together but it's completely coincidental. >> what do you think beijing's

next move is retaliation? >> yeah, you know, we're going to find a way to hit back. melissa, we don't know exactly howor or how they will do it it's symmetrically in the semiconductor space but there are other ways in which china has learning, and we may see them do this i just want to step back for a minute and say this has been foreshadowed by the biden administration for a very long time the biden administration has been concerned about how these high-end chips are being used to help modernize china's military and china is aware that this was coming that's why they have been shoveling money into trying to develop their own semiconductor high-end chip sector to no avail at this point this shouldn't surprise anyone that it's happened because the biden administration has been foreshadowing this for a very long time. >> that means that china just had much longer to think about ways to retaliate. i mean, i hate to put it that

way, but -- but they might not be able to hit back symmetrically when it comes specifically to chips but there are so many other ways in. your view what is at risk because of this? >> well, i think in the near term, melissa, the real pressure i think falls on taiwan. you noted in the beginning that taiwan announced this weekend, the ministry of economy said they are going to follow this rule that's significant given that tsmc is the juggernaut here in the space, but we're going have to see on this side if the administration, certainly congress will want the administration to push our friends and allies more. the dutch, the south koreans, the japanese, all have companies that can help china develop its space, so the administration is going to have get more than a moral and verbal commitment from these countries, asml from the dutch side, sk and samsung from

north korea -- from south korea, and tokyo electron from japan. all of these companies are going have to do more if the goal here is to really deny this technology to china. >> i'm a huge fan of your work talk about leverage. they have it -- china that is in spade in terms of what they own and in terms of our bond market and stuff, and if you're a country that's willing to lose battles in order to win wars, should we be focused on that the movement in the country bond markets are startling? >> i'm not a trade so i can't speak to bon market but what i can tell you is you're right to think about asymmetric ways in which china can respond to this. again, there's not much that they can do at the moment in the semiconductor space but there are places where there's a lot of leverage and china is likely going to be looking for ways to hit back i would say we've got to get beyond the party congress for sure there's not much that i expect in the near term, but over the

longer period china will try and find ways to express their displeasure with us. >> thank you always great to get your commentary i was talking to a chip analyst chris rollin today on "power lunch," and, dan, you know, he was saying how difficult it is to pin down the exact impact on this sector because we don't know how hard the biden administration is going to be when it comes to implementing any of this. >> yeah. >> in terms of enforcement it's very difficult to enforce some of these things >> the biden administration did not strip some of the trump -- the trade restrictions, so i think they are going to see this thing out. i think this is actually real important especially when you think about how many different ways that we were -- guy would say leverage, the leverage that we have. this is a real important with you. i'll just say this about some of the sthooks were affected. remember nvidia had a leg down here and amd just reported last week really bad revenue guide, pre-announce president here. one of the things -- i hope they

can pull up an nvidia chart from the first week of october to the last week of last year that stock gained 75%, okay, in a straight line, and i'll just say it this is on investors it's not on any administration it's in the on the company's guidance i'm just saying so this stock is now down 70% it will find a home and it will overshoot to the downside the way it overshot to the upside last year. >> i mean, some people were saying that maybe semis have been de-risked because we've seen such a fall the smh is down 20% since recent highs and some are saying maybe this is all in the stocks courtney and yet here we are we take a look at nvidia specifically traded. traded again today on basically the same news. yes, the rules are now could theified they maybe stricter than we thought but still the notion that the export restrictions are going to hit revenue we knew that was coming. >> yeah. that's the hard thing. each on friday when we saw amd go lower, this is on news we already knew, that pc sales were slowing down and demand

deterioration is a problem with these chip sectors yes, i think we're starting to see -- maybe starting to get priced in here starting to get tracked evaluations. they are trading lower on news we already now about can we continue to see that? i don't know what that news would be in all honesty so that makes me think yes, that's be a opportunity and would i have said that last week and we keep having these lower. >> amd hung in there pretty well started off the day very badly, and then it seemed, to you know, find some foot, and it sort of makes me wonder, all right, i mean, this is a lot cheaper than nvidia. >> right. >> and so if i -- would you rather. >> you didn't ask. >> but i'll permit that. >> okay, thank you i did see that interview today though he was very good. >> yeah. >> yes, and i thought oh, i know her. anyway, i would be long amd. >> okay. >> coming up, dear jerome, our kathy wood penning out a letter

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so i moved to sofi checking and savings. get 2.50% interest, and earn up to $300 when you set up direct deposit. sofi. get your money right. welcome back to "fast money. the chartmaster issuing a warning on two of the most speculative securities in the market bitcoin and kathy woods arc innovation etf the two charts look very similar over the last year and they don't look good. carter says that he sees more downside in both coming quote, unquote immediately. meanwhile, our kathy wood writing an open letter to the federal reserve today urging the central bank to reconsider further rate hikes or risk a, quote, deflationary bust

well, the action and the options in the arc innovation fund pointing to fresh lows ahead for that etf mike khouw is here to break it down. >> we saw the daily options volume traded over 200,000 contracts, the ninth busiest etf option today. the trade that caught my eye was a purchase of the october 31st puts 3,300 contract, and what's notable about this trade was not its size there were a lot of big trades in ark today but actually the severity of the move they are anticipating these options expire a week from friday and in order to be profitable the ark etf would need to decline more than 13% from where it closed today. >> wow i'm curious to get your thoughts, dan, on kathy woods' letner conjunction with carter's call because it does seem like she is asking the fed -- i mean, this would obviously help her fund tremendously if they stop hiking rates. >> other he's the thing, right

she keeps doing that that's been her stance all year long so they felt that way when they were coming off a zero interest rate bound so she keeps doing it now when we're going to get above 4% after the next meeting or in and around there again, yeah do, her stocks need it, but here's the thing if you look at the ark innovation etf and look at the holdings other than tesla which is the largest at 9% it's like the island of misfit tech toys it's just like the stocks may never come back. they might go the up 100%, 200% but they will never have meaningful market caps they will never have the kind of innovative spirit or the product, you know, just the product imagination that they had five years ago when she put them in here, so to me the product makes no sense, and i just don't really see -- it just sparked -- just speaks of desperation i think at this point, the open letter >> also, you know, it's a different rate environment, different just environment in general and some of these things just do not look as innovative

anymore. >> right. >> karen. >> innovative stuff that doesn't make money yet and had in the future and have you to discount that. >> stop doing what you're doing because it's hurting me very badly. >> yes i think if you overlay, we have ark and then -- what was the other one we had on? >> bitcoin. >> and then if you put bonds over -- bond prices, it would mirror that as well. >> hmm >> courtney? >> yeah, and i do think you look at all of her top holdings, the cheapest one here is zoom which is 2509 times forward earnings, but even then that's really not very cheap, and all of these companies are going to be in this position where even if the fed does stop raising interest rates and even if that does start to peak here, i don't think rates are going to come down as much as they were over the last decade so they are still going to be at the helm where they are facing higher rate and likely not continue to outperform the markets so this is not something i'd be chasing right new. >> guy, what's your take on miss woods these days >> indulge me. did you happen to watch the mets

game last night >> you know. >> zero shot that have. >> i note answer. >> so no. >> well in the sixth inning buck showalter walked out of his dugout and asked the umpires to check the pitcher for the padres who was just basically lighting up the mets lineup in a good way if you're papa day fan that move wreaked of desperation and it didn't work out for buck. this op-ed wreaks of desperation and i don't think it's going to necessarily work out for her, hand listen, not cast aspersions a second time on this show, but it's virtually impossible to be as wrong as any etf has been over the last year owe so, and, you know, again, the most innovative thing about the ark etf, and i've said this for months, the invert ark etf which was creative because that sucker has been on fire >> mike khouw, do have you a position on ark, short directionally short? >> i don't have a position short on ark if we could take short positions and a our fund were long only on

the fund side i'd be happy to short it so the guess short ark innovation etf would be the one would i fake a look at with respect to rates, bear this in-mile-per-hour she compared the recent rate increases to the one that volk ker started to impose because she was thinking about it in percentage terms and still step years below 4% we're in the in a high rate environment, not even close to it and not even back to the mean of the half century. talking their book, and their book is not a good one. >> thank, mike we'll see you on friday. "options action" 5:30 p.m. on friday coming up, the case of the bouillon blues even if gold can't hold up, where should investors run for cover? we'll discuss the mayhem in the metals market. much more "fast money" in two. thinkorswim® by td ameritrade is more than a trading platform. it's an entire trading experience.

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welcome back here's a sneak peak at the cramer com fubo founder and shark daym ho nd john is joining the interview. top of the hour on "mad money. mayhem and the metals market gold, platinum, silver getting crushed today.

so much for a safe haven trade where should investors hide out? guy, i know you'll have this whole thing about hiding out, no hiding out, but, still, the traditional hedges have not worked >> no. so answer part that have question, i think big cap pharma remains the place to be. i know dan, courtney and karen agree because they have talked about it merck, that stock on the upgrade traded extraordinarily well. that's a place i think in the only can you hide out there, i think you can actually do well there. in terms of gold, when the bank of england did their little safety dance or whatever they did a couple weeks ago, i was pretty convinced when i saw that headline that gold would be up $100 and followed up with a couple of great days obviously that didn't happen i don't know what to tell you. what gold is i think trying to tell people is this fed is going to be steadfast and they are going to continue to go down this path so when the fed bloings, which it also, that's going to be time, but it's given no indication and neither has

gold sorry about gold it's been a bit of a widow-maker. >> courtney, i'm sure this is particularly vexing for a lot of your clients who are trying to allocate money across asset classes, and you're like bonds are the traditional hedge and that totally blew up this year. >> yes. >> and cash is feeling probably pretty decent. >> yeah. >> and gold i think is one that people always bring out because you assume it's an inflation hedge. it really hasn't been for a while, and if you do have a broad basket of commodities those have held up better because there are plenty of things doing well, energy has been a good hedge begins inflation this year and this has been one of the things people my age are using bitcoin and that was supposed to be the hedge against inflation so make sure you're well diversified health care to guy's point is one of those, energy is another one. gold, yes, not something i want to own outright for a hedge. it hasn't been that for a long time. >> karen >> i've always been confused by gold as a help i never quite got it and bitcoin has really not -- you would -- i

mean, i guess you could say, all right. well the fed is really hiking in so that's why bitcoin is doing poorly it doesn't feel like that's actually why there's speculative an nothing to anchor valuation. that's why. >> treasuries, going back to what you're saying i think this is a really unique time i know i've been suggesting to get long the gobt, the u.s. treasury yields. i think we're going to get to this november meeting. i do think the fed is actually going to signal the fact that they will slow things down a little bit. >> in november interesting. >> and the economy gets really bed, i don't know if you saw the fed whisperer over the weekend in the "wsj" you know what i mean, "the wall street journal," he was basically saying economists are getting worried now because of the pace of increases that it will do a number on the economy. i think that's going to be the case you'll see a flight to quality no matter what to treasuries and you'll see yields come in. to me that's a trade that should work over the next three to six months. >> can you walk us through this

gobt because if you're locking targets you're looking at the chart and the it's down 15% year to date and the yield might be better. >> it's the ishares, 209-year thereby so this has two years, it has five years and ten so it's a broader one so that's why i'm looking at it. i do think you're not going to see a massive move higher in the ten your if you just want to look at that that's the one that we quote a lot and i think there's a good cross section. so if i'm getting long govt i'm bearish on yields. think yields will come in. >> up next, final trades you'll always remember buying your first car. and buying your starter home. or whatever this is. but the things that last a lifetime like happiness, love and confidence... you can't buy those.

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welcome back to "fast money. check out shares of sewscaler, the company announcing the resignation of its president after the close of trade today shares down 7% during the regular session. guy. >> this was a $375 stock end of fall, and that was up probably from 150 earlier that year everybody loved it i was one of those people. that's when valuations didn't matter fed pivoted in november. this stock is going straight down since $22 billion market cap last i lob.

they will do $2 billion in revenue. dan will tell you that's still too expensive. remember the song "wake me up before you go, go. make mow up when it trades seven times revenues and we'll probably get there season. >> all right time now for the final trade let's go around the horn guy, i paused a little bit because i wanted to give you some time, you know, to mentally adjust >> no, i appreciate that, you know i'm not that quick on the uptick tough nothing at she, apologize. kroger inflation hedge, that's your inflation hedge. >> karen finerman. >> sort of along the same thing, somewhat boring businesses, going with gal greens boots. annihilated. >> and your also cvs. >> and cvs which i am long. >> courtney? >> we're coming in with bank earnings they have been really track, xlf could be a way to play this to get all of your bank exposure. >> can >> you know, mel, we make this look easy, the "fast money."

you know what the hardest segment is this cement. >> were is this? >> right now in this market it's really hard to recommend anything and that's why i was like happy to talk about the govt which i sympathy a safety trade here so that's what i'm going with right now. >> all right >> well, thank y a f youllorou watching "fast money." see yo my mission is simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends, i'm just trying to save you some money my job is not just to entertain but educate and teach you so-call me 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer. time to accept we have a