good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm rebecca quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. right now, the u.s. equities futures are not painting a pretty picture this is additional losses. add that to yesterday and what we saw at the end of last week dow futures off 233 points s&p down 32. nasdaq off by 98 points. that comes after stocks slid in yesterday's session. dow down 94 yesterday. s&p off .75% nasdaq down 1% it closed at the lowest level in over two years july of 2020 is the last time we have seen this

the pressure not abating not a surprise given what we heard from joimamie dimon overnight. the ten year note is pushing higher the treasury market was closed yesterday. 10-year treasury is 4% 3.95%. andrew jpmorgan chase ceo jamie dimon warning the u.s. is likely to tip in recession in the next six-to-nine months he spoke to our julianna tatelbaum ahead of the tech conference in london about the serious headwinds. >> currently right now the u.s. economy is still doing well. consumershave money. fiscal stimulus. they have more than before they are spending 10% more than last year. balance sheets are in great shape. debt has gone up a little bit. not like pre-covid levels. they will be in better shape

companies are in good shape. credit is good markets are still open rocky and stuff like that. you can't talk about the economy without talking about the future this is serious stuff. this is inflation which is changing the effects of the number rates going up more than people expect already and probably more from here. qt which we never had before there is the unknown effect you see in the bond markets around the world and sovereign markets and people selling u.s. treasury debt and the war these are very, very serious things which are likely to push the u.s. and world in recession. europe is already in recession likely to put u.s. in recession six-to-nine months from now. the one thing we see is volatility markets we have seen markets down a bit. ipo. high yield bridge loans hung. it is typical, but orderly i think it is possible to be

disorderly in the not too di distant future >> a lot of folks interested in the disorderly julianna asked about the stock market >> where do you see the trotugh for the s&p? >> it has a way to do. it depends on the soft landing or hard landing. it is hard for me to answer that it could be another easy 20% the next 20% will be more painful than the first rates going up another 100 basis points more painful than the first 100. people aren't used to it i think negative rates when all is said and done, will be a complete failure >> the second 20 is going to hurt more than the first >> that is 40. >> that is true. i was struck by the comment about the volatility causing disorderly issues. >> read about the bank of england. that scares me do you guys remember when jamie

lost his personal account? five or ten years ago. in a selloff and we made a big deal out of jamie dimon invested he bought a bunch of blue chips and it actually turned out where he was right. >> he is concerned because he understands the markets. >> it might be good he is not a professional market guy. they don't know. he he said i don't know >> he said come back and ask me. >> 40% on 3600 another 700 points. that brings us to 2900 >> that wasn't the call that concerned me drop of 20% in the markets >> it could go below 3,000. >> he said things at a part where he describe what is you start to see in the breakdown.

ipo market closed first. that happened. then you see the other credit markets slow down. he described the liquidity going out like the tide. when wyou heard first from ray going from cash is king and paul tudor jones said he would listen and say cash is the place to be. jamie dimon said in the comments with liquidity if you need money, go out and raise it now liquidity is getting sucked out of the room. >> if you are watching this morning and for so long, we have always generally prevailing view, not we, squawk, but public folks in the world of finance and you have a portfolio and when things are down, not always the right time to sell them or raise cash if you really do think the market is going to drop another 20%, potentially be disorderly, then there will be lots of other opportunities. is there an upside scenario in

this moment that somebody would say is actually a higher probability? a 50/50 probability that's the case i wonder about that. >> i trust in jamie's instincts and read on the financial markets in terms of liquidity and operating smooth i i think he understands that better than anybody. i think the 20% drop is not same this is where risk assessment kicks into high gear you worry if you have enough liquidity. the risk assessment factors. >> legendary manager when we were at delivering the alpha, i can't believe that worked the first thing you think of is they will not do what they need to do. it has been how long they said it would end on friday they did not extend it

yesterday. people did not like that they said they could buy 5 billion a day. they have been buying 700 million. they ramped up to $10 billion because they have not gotten takers the pension plans will sell here at a big loss. they need to match the liability again. owning those long gilts. they have to buy in at higher prices you are seeing the classic problem with trying to fix something by throwing money at it with the central bank >> the pensions can hold out if they hold out, the bank can't do what it said it would do which is close the window on friday this is where the funds have more power >> they point out in various places that first couple of rounds of the central banks saving doesn't work. even our fed during the pandemic, they announced this and then they announced this and that didn't work then it finally worked

it finally stabilized things it is usually not the first time if we worry about the financial cypress. i was worried about the golf course it wasn't. it was a small country that was going to take down the financial. the bank of england. that's a problem >> jamie dimon said maybe it is etf or country he said the credit markets are where it is going to be. julianna tatelbaum did a great job on the interview >> pensions are important for people in the uk it is a fairly large amount of money that we're talking about i don't know i don't know if that is the beginning. did you see the two fed people maybe we are going up too quickly. >> lael brainard >> both acknowledging. >> we have a fed watcher

one of the best. >> someone watching the bank of england. steve liesman here announcing the measures. watching the pound and dollar. dollar getting stronger. steve joins us with details. steve, this starting to feel eerie. >> so, becky, the day after that massive bond selloff we talked about yesterday. bank of england steps in again with new measures to halt the ro rout not necessarily dialing back the selloff. it was the second expansion of the bond buying program in as many days. the third since late september began buying bonds in respect to liquidity shortages and pension funds related to the gilt market the boe including the british version of inflation index securities the function in the market and prospect of self reinforcing

fire sale sky dynamics pose a rk to security. rose as much as 30 basis points yesterday. it is now and i can't see it on my screen there. it was 4.49 before i checked the u.s. ten-year rose 12 points before rallying on the news. it is now in the zone of 3.95 or so. lael brainard says liquidity is fragile in core markets. the fed is monitoring the markets. the question is whether the boe did now is enough. it has been criticized for limiting the bond purchase through october 14th and resume asset sales on october 31st. i read something from pension fund lobby group in england saying they continue those purchases through october 31st

you guys were talking about why it will work past central banks intervention works best when it is unlimited and traders cannot profit from opposing that policy that is why you get to a place where the policy eventually works. the bank does it this much and that much. we will take all paper here and that is when it has a better impact. >> whethen it can wash you out instead of betting and betting by doing it this way, the bank of england loses more credibility. they go back on the usuaissues the political party has to change plans or in a situation where thing go haywire there is not a good answer to any of these >> i think the boe credibility bus may have left the station already. i'm not sure they are getting on

that any time soon i'm not sure people are blaming the boe. >> the political party. >> the big tax cuts and big increase in deficit sending. becky, it looks like the government has backed off that somewhat you see them having little chance of passing through parl parliament that has not come. markets still have the liquidity problem. at least right now, becky, the important for u.s. investors, it is not washed up on our shores it is a good warning signal. brainard said there is a little liquidity being fragile in coren we have been talking to people i'm not hearing people with stories in england with concern with our markets here. >> was there softening on our

markets? i'm calling for 50 now. >> are you calling for 50, joe >> yeah. is that the beginning? is that a small pivot or slight blink? is it dovish is there anything there? they have been harassed being too strident did they send any signal >> i didn't make as much of it as markets did joe, you are out of sample with the 50 basis points. the odds are 92% for 75. 8 -- i know you like to be >> awful quick >> i want to see the cpi numbers on thursday. >> we need a full point on the cpi. >> joe, the debate will be how far they go. not necessarily how fast they get there. i think they will do another --

what's that? >> it matters how quickly you do it. >> it does >> if you do it incrementally -- >> the trouble is, joe, evan spoke positively about the idea of front loading that has been out there. front load meaning you do less. evan is talking about -- s, becky? >> they have done that front load. >> more front loading to do. >> with your own open letters? >> you and catie wood. >> save my fund? is that the letter >> way in the money. >> steve, thank you. they are playing us out. we have a lot to talk about today. we will see you later this morning. more to talk about with steve and the markets and we will speak with the former leader of the brexit party nigel farage.

that is coming up in the next hour "squawk box" will be right back. >> announcer: this cnbc program is sponsored by baird. visit bairddifference.com. ♪ ♪ connecting to opportunity is just part of the hustle. ♪ ♪

opportunity is using data to create a competitive advantage. ♪ ♪ it's raising capital that helps companies change the world. it's making complicated financial concepts seem simple. opportunity is making the dream of home ownership a reality... ♪ ♪ ...writing new rules and redefining the game... ...and driving the world forward to a greener energy future. (applause) ♪ ♪ opportunity is setting a goal... ...and charting a course to get there. sometimes the only thing standing between you and opportunity... ...is someone who can make the connection. at ice, we connect people to opportunity.

we are just about there in terms of earnings. nearly here with big names reporting this week. joining us with stock picks is nancy tengler.

you are somewhat defensive you are still buying things. for a long time, you had a dividend strategy that worked in good times and bad, i think, nancy. we have been talking about lael brainard and charlie evans do you think they were talking about the softening and the resolve was headlong at 4.5% is there a softening would they be more data dependent? do you hope they are >> joe, you and i have been doing this for a long time one of the greatest disappointments is this fed has been wrong at every turning point. one of the most note worthy statements was when neel kashkari came out as the uber hawk after being the uber dove for a decade i think what we have to hope is this is the beginning of the

telegraphing that maybe we have gone too fast and too far and too fast or too late, really they really you guys talking about front end loading it they have end loading it they have let it go for over a year saying it is time to raise rates and it was on deaf ears. i think, unfortunately, they caused volatility in the market. they are running the risk of m making it worse. you are hearing the drum beat of people coming out and the fed saying we can take it easy for a while. i thought jeremy siegel was great in his rants the last couple weeks >> you are still in love with names that you think could be bought in this environment what are they? there are three. >> you still want to own

technology the solution to getting out of the tight labor market is spend on tech cap x. cio increasing on spend on software cloud infrastructure is important and cybersecurity. you get that with microsoft. $15 billion cybersecurity business and our industry pick ping that name is palo alto networks microsoft is exposed to a number of areas they win the spend they are the top spend, tech spend, through 2025 according to cio survey we like chipotle in the old days, you used to buy estee lauder i'm still buy ping burritos this company has pricing power which they demonstrated and still putting up 10% to 15% growth historically and expected. the last name we like is eog

resources. it is a $3 dividend and they pay $6.20 on a trailing yearly basis on a special dividend. bugrowers. >> microsoft it's cheaper that's for sure. >> it sure is. they pay a dividend. it is not a big dividend 1.6. they just raised it.grower in the old days, that would be a hedge against inflation. we expect it is an extraordinarily well managed company. you can hide out there it is a lot cheaper than it was a year ago we have been in buying since june and selectively in a

disciplined fashion in the higher risk names since coming out on the other side. you want to own companies that can deliver reliable growth and this is one of them. >> okay. nancy, thank you good to have you on. we have known each other for a while. through thick and thin good seeing you this morning. >> thank you, joe. when we come back, china dealing with the surge in covid outbreaks with much of the country in clamp down mode ahead of the party congress. we've got the details straight ahead. as we lhead to break, look t the shares of taiwan semiconductor after returning to trading after the holiday. that stock reacting to the u.s. export controls on high-end technology that is to limit chinese ability to buy semiconductors. this is the taiwan semiconductor first chance to trade on it. trinnit et fell 4% in overgh

adg. we'll be right back. >> announcer: squawk picks is sponsored by wisdom tree the modern alpha pioneer

♪♪ i don't accept this. i can't do this anymore. impossible odds, save the world.

i'm done. what do you have for me? a new way to transform our agency. strategy to execution. oh, looks my laces have come undone. a business card? yes, for ey. tech expertise? $2.5 billion invested. impressive. okay, you've convinced me, i'm back. just gonna... get this... it seems like things are falling apart lately. the economy. the market... everything. but upwork lets you strategically hire talent

to weather all ups and downs your business might go through. look at all that talent. ♪♪ new covid cases are spiking across mainland china prompting local authorities to tighten controls 4.8% of china gdp wnegatively affected by controls yesterday those measures are a week long holiday that ended on friday ch china's covid situation deteriorated during the holiday. we saw the same thing happen here last year over the holidays at the end of the year the outbreak comes days ahead of the national congress for china which is held every five years president xi jinping is expected

to consolidate power and pave his way for a third term. coming up on "squawk box" we will discuss jamie dimon's call to ukraine. and we will highlight the hispanic heritage month. here is jose cil >> the story of the cuban immigrant is not well known. it is a pretty compelling story of difficulties and challenges of leaving everything behind not for economic reasons, but political reasons. my mom came as a 14-year-old she had to leave everything behind and became a very successful educator. got a ph.d. and taught in universities later in life there are many examples of very successful cuban immigrants. i think the story is one of difficulty and challenges that

were joanovercome because of pee issevernce and grit. >> announcer: executive edge is sponsored by at&t business at&t 5g is fast, reliable and secure nice, but i can't accept it. unless every business gets the best deal. on every iphone. uh, actually... we already do that. the plumber with the ascot! big bjorn, little bjorn, too! the caterer who really cares. every business should get the deal! we make a good team. every business gets at&t's best deals on every iphone. including up to $800 off iphone 14 pro. (♪ ♪)

♪♪ this... is the planning effect. this is how it feels to know you have a wealth plan that covers everything that's important to you. this is what it's like to have a dedicated fidelity advisor looking at your full financial picture. making sure you have the right balance of risk and reward. and helping you plan for future generations. this is "the planning effect" from fidelity.

good morning

welcome back to "squawk box. we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. not a pretty picture more red arrows. nasdaq off 1% yesterday. closed at lowest level since july of 2020 more than two years ago. this morning, no bounce back nasdaq indicated down 88 the dow indicated off more than 200 points s&p down 30 points. let's talk about jpmorgan chase's ceo jamie dimon with a stark warning with the russian war in ukraine he spoke to our julianna tatelbaum. >> pearl harbor and check slovakia and attack on the western world. free democratic nation attacked by 3,000 tanks in europe defended, not defended, with a nuclear threat umbrella. it say is a chance for the west world to get together.

they think the western world is lazy there is a little bit of truth to that. this is the chance for the free people and free moment and freedom of speech and religion for the next century if we don't get this one right, the chaos you will see around the world for the next 50 years. >> joining me now is the professor at yale school of management a lot of investigative work with corporations doing business in russia and the relationship with russia and ukraine jeff, i'm curious if you react to jamie dimon's comments sdplcomments >> i thought he was brilliant. it is not helping lift the markets. there is no one like him for candor ifantastic i love the clarity call for not

just the west, but the world to stand behind ukraine >> one of the things that is fascinating although the past couple weeks with all sorts of ceos in the west speak out in all ways on the opposite side is elon musk's comment of what he think should happen. what was your reaction to that >> that is part of a psychological trap that many of us have is always think there is a win-win solution we're teaching negotiation and executive program today. i have been betterrating the fay that there is no split the baby. king solomon talked about splitting the baby it is an impossible solution ukraine will never go for it there isn't a middle ground here sometimes you clearly have somebody right and somebody wrong.

the great military strategist always said leave your enemy a path for retreat it is hard to see one for putin in this case >> jeff, you have been on the phone six months or more with corporate ceos across the world. some of them spoken out. some have not spoken out some taking steps. some haven't taken steps to get out of russia or somewhere else. what do you want them to do now? >> just to hold the line what was remarkable is you remember we spoke months ago when the war broke out on february 24th, to my amazement, the big movers were big tech and big oil. they were the least likely voices in the corporate social impact that they call woke these days they moved first we saw the mass exodus unparalleled in world history. 1,200 firms pulled out

south africa in the late '80s was 200. that is something putin did not count on talk about embargoes not working. they look at korea and north korea and iran there are examples where it worked and whether or not it is poland or czechoslovakia >> we see large debate take place of the social impact and esg and you used the word woke when it is used in certain contexts, people say it is okay. maybe in the context of russia/ukraine or possible nuclear war. people say that's fine that's not woke. there are other issues and you talked about them. voting rights. climate. other things in the country where people are up in arms depending on what side of the aisle they're sitting on with these issues

where is the line? >> it matters differently for each company there is not a litmus test for each company >> you have been out there criticizing companies that didn't get out of russia quick enough do you remember that >> i put the spotlight on what they did they tried -- we did grade them a through f. you think f is not a good grade. i didn't come out and condemn companies. i said the markets did and what you can find and you go to our social research network. we have 1,000 articles published. we're number nine in the last quarter century. so many people want to see the proof that doing good is not compared to doing well the more companies pull out, the more financial markets reward them i named the companies on the show you can see it is directly

prop proportionate. it is a risk over what the market sees staying in russia. >> we asked paul tudor jones how to handicap or as a bit leader to think about the prospect of nuclear war. i don't think he had an answer maybe you do >> i think what we hope is we have no idea we can't get into his head we do know and we think of countries like libya i started to mention in poland or when we had in chile that we saw that economic blockade you have government sanctions with private sector voluntary p pullouts that puts massive pressure on biden administration doesn't

want to topple the sovereign leader that is not proper conduct unless we are full at war. however, that's got to be the policy putin has to be taken out by somebody people have to help him find a way out within his country the idea of having 12,600 thermonuclear warheads by three countries. we have to figure a way out. the great track record for economic blockade working through history and it should work here. it has to happen when you have massive government sanctions with the private sector pullouts that's where it has worked in south africa and the rest. putin did not calculate that on energy independence, we are doing shockingly well. saudis have thrown us for an unpredicted curve ball it is crazy we are providing for them support in terms of defense

capabilities that we provide none of our other allies >> we have to run in a minute. you have written a piece about this issue as what you think is almost sordid relationship what relationship does the u.s. have over saudi? >> the u.s. has massive unused leverage we need to immediately put a pause on what we're transferring we are transferring unlike anywhere in the world. manufacturing. intellectual property for massive weapon systems that should stop immediately in two years, we will lose control over the weapon systems. we don't have that in australia or britain or uk or canada or israel you put that all together and it doesn't equal what we put in saudi arabia with no control all of the jobs. all in saudi arabia. there is a deal. they are supposed to provide us oil. they didn't need to raise their

rates. that put them in cahoots with russia they are making 80% returns. there is no shortage in gas by the way in europe. that is something else that putin didn't understand. an article came out today in the ft on how there is plenty of gas for europe expensive gas. lng. we are providing more gas to europe now than russia did at the peak sdplc >> jeff, we have to leave the conversation there good to see you. we will talk soon. >> thanks. coming up, ark invest buying the dip of a major software company. details after the break. later, we talk to senator kevin ckramer you can watch or listen to us live on the cnbc app atinyme we're coming right back.

thanks to avalara we can calculate sales tax on almost anything, anywhere, automatically. avalarahhhhh. what if tax rates change? ahhhhhh. filing sales tax returns? ahhhhhh. managing exemption certificates? ahhhhhh. business license guidance? ahhhhhh. does it connect with accounting? ahhhhhh. item classification? ahhhhhh. cross-border sales? ahhhhhh. what about? ahhhhhh. ahhhhhh. do you have those budget markups? thank you. mmhm. [bubbles]

talk about it, but i will. there's the futures. down 200 points this morning nasdaq at two-year lows already. heading lower. s&p down 30 points crude this morning all the way up to 90 it is down today down 2.5%. conflicting forces global slowdown with supply constraints after opec plus. meanwhile, cathie wood's ark snapping up adobe amid the ongoing slide. following the $20 billion deal for software design firm figma the next etf bought more than 23,000 shares of adobe

yesterday. the same fund bought 23,000 shares on september 19th >> at a higher price. >> yeah. almost double in value before the recent purchase, ark invest was holding less than 1,200 shares of adobe. when we come back, common characteristics of women who rise to positions of power that sis a topic covered in juli boorstin book. the book is called "when women lead." you can follow squawk pod on your foravite podcast app and you can listen to us anytime we'll be right back.

welcome back our own julia boorstin is out with a new book. it's called "when women lead" and how we can learn from how they achieve we conducted interviews from 60

female leaders and research on funding flows and profits. joining us with more is julia boorstin our cnbc senior media and tech correspondent and author congratulations. >> thank you so much so great to be here talking about my new book. >> it is a lot of work i'm sure 120 people you interviewed 120 women you interviewed and other people, too. to me, the most striking in all of this is what a small portion of funding goes to women founders you tracked the fund flows it is 2% that goes to women-owned companies. >> $300 million invested in start-ups. 2% of that went to female-led companies. i was thinking it is hard enough to grow and scale a business if you defy those odds and secure that tiny 2% and create a successful company, that means you defied the odds and have all of the leadership characteristics that are

valuable for all of us i want to dig into the data and stories and what i found are the essential leadership traits that are more important now than ever >> like what >> women are more likely to lead with empathy and vulnerability those are crucial traits connecting with employees and motivating and like what >> empaw sea, and srepb rawability, and also motivating and increasingly frustrated or ma maybe burnt out work forces. think about all the challenges in the economy and women are also more likely to lead in a communal way, and bringing perspectives across the organization rather than top down decision made in the corner office >> we have seen more focus over this in the last two or three years, and funds created

when we start to talk about liquidity, like we talked about with jamie dimon, this is when you see progress in flush times and it probably gets harder when the liquidity dries up >> 3% on average to drop down to 2% in 2021, and we saw the overall pie increase in 2021 i do think that the characteristics that women lead with are essential right now, especially the fact that women traditionally have done more with less, and generating higher profits with low investment, and everybody is going to have less access to capital right now, and that trait is essential, and women have succeeded despite much worse double standards and odds, and there's more resilience that will pay off we go back to 2008, 2009 shall

the companies that emerged from there were stronger back to the first internet bubble, and when that bursts, the companies that emerged from the next downturn are the next generation of googles and paypal and more of them will be led by women. >> you have so many people you talk to, but do you have one or two stories? >> one or two stories, and some you never heard of, a company called city block health, and this is a woman who is transforming the health care system she worked in sierra leone, and now she is taking a long-term approach, and they get paid on long-term outcomes rather than on the volume of care, and people like gweneth paltrow, who

i interviewed, and she writes about her experiences and struggles, and she leads with vulnerability, asking questions about things she doesn't know, and that opens the door for employees and colleagues to open the door on what they don't know, too. >> is there lessons for men? >> there are more important lessons for men than for women this is a booki inspiring of women, and educational for men these characteristics are more valuable than ever, not just for women but also for men you have to read the book and you have to start leading more like a woman >> i see it firsthand. i am watching it in my house 18 hours a day, with my wife. she's amazing.

>> vulnerable is not the word that i come up with right away i am vulnerable, so i got that going for me, i think. but, yeah, it's amazing what's happening and it's great to watch. i think you might have missed out interviewing -- >> i will interview your wife. i could have interviewed thousands of women and included their stories in the book, and the women i met on this topic were remarkable, and i am talking about women who barely escaped dying in an avalanche and she came back and founded a water safety company because when she was in the mountains she had to boil snow to survive, and these companies are amazing and game changing and the women are inspirational, and the takeaways for men are essential. >> why did you write this book

>> i have interviewed lots of ceos, and i kept coming back to the fact that being an entrepreneur takes so much grit and ingenuity, and to be a female you have to go up against extra odds, and these women are not exceptions but leading in ways that are truly exceptional. i would find myself after interviews asking what is your secret as i dug into those conversations, i thought this is a book everybody has to read >> and the book is called "when women lead." congratulations. >> thank you very much >> thank you so much for having me a lot more coming up, after everybody has read the book, we will have more conversations with jamie dimon and then we will show you how

markets are reacting two big hours of "squawk box" ahead after this

you love closing a deal. but hate managing your business from afar. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire another busy day? matc of course - you're ation. cio in 2022. but you're ready. because you've got the next generation in global secure networking from comcast business. with fully integrated security solutions all in one place. so you're covered. on-premise and in the cloud. you can run things the way you want - your team, ours or a mix of both. with the nation's largest ip converged network. from the most innovative company. bring on today with comcast business. powering possibilities.

good morning breaking overnight, the bank of england intervening in the bond market again herein the u.s., futures are pointing to a fifth straight day

of declines. plus, the cnbc exclusive, and jamie dimon, his comments as the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now good morning and welcome back to "squawk box" right here on cnbc. we are live in times square, andrew ross sorkin, along with joe kernen and becky quick the do you looks like it opened down, and the s&p 500 looking to open down about 25 points. jamie dimon says there's still more to go and we will talk about that, potentially, in just

a moment and the u.s. treasuries, the 2-year note up to 4.316. and you are looking right now at wti crude, the price at 88.99. crypto, whether it's the dog or tail, we still don't know but right now down 19,000. >> it could be close to breaking 19 it may have. let's get to dom chu >> we will check on computer stocks, which have not been able to find a real bid for sometime now. this morning there are fundamental drivers we are seeing to the market, and kla corporation, they will halt sales and services for certificate products to

china-based customers for computer chips, according to a reuters report it's important because china, that region, represents the largest geographical footprint, and wells fargo cutting the rating on skyworks, and that's keeping a negativity around some key companies. and keep an eye on some of the big semiconductor names on those sentiment moves. we talked about the comments andrew just eluded to about the likelihood of a recession in the coming six to nine months here in the u.s. and perhaps abroad during that exclusive interview with cnbc, and that's why you are seeing sensitive parts of the market like oil and gas dipping. oil prices are down, and not surprising oil stocks along with them, and marathon oil, and

exxonmobil amongst others in the premarket right now down it's not all red out there and amgen shares up, and they think things like the obesity product and watching that up 2%. it's not all red there's green out there. i will send things back to you >> even that chart, dom, what a fluke. nothing looks like that chart. it almost seems to be rising from left to rise, and is that even possible? >> it is 14% upside >> you should? might be upsidedown. >> i trust themarket data. how about that >> that is, but it's rare. >> thank you, dom. bank of england in another round of emergency measures,

steve leaseman joins us with more >> yeah, and the second time in as many days addressing chaos, and expanding bond purchases to what you would call the british version of index securities, and the new emergency measures comes with the sharp rises on yield bonds, and all of this brought on by liquidity prices the measures having a limited positive affect over there with yields falling into the 443 area and as high as 450, and they rose by as much as 30 basis points yesterday, and the u.s. ten-year, overnight trading rose

to a 4% yield, and it's rallying a bit this morning, and u.s. stocks not taking news well. and yesterday it was said that liquidity is fragile in core markets and the fed was carefully monitoring those markets. and the boe said it would resume selling bonds, and so a moving target over there, joe >> yep >> i was going to ask. if they want this window extended it's because the pension funds don't want to sale at the prices that are there now, and they want it extended so they can get a better price down the road? >> i don't know the reason for that that's one plausible reason, and the bank of england and others

urged the pension funds to get their act together and take care of what is on their balance sheets i don't know, becky, it could be they need more time to set everything right, and there has been a sharp rise in yields, and it's widespread over there in the pension fund industry. >> it almost feels like a game of chicken, where the ban k is saying okay, we're giving you a price for liquidity, and then they are saying i don't like that prices, we're not going to sell, and it's a stand off, and the question of if you owe money and maybe it's a big loan and then you own the bank. >> if they do sell, it could be at a loss and the pension funds

are trying to not take on as many losses as they possibly can. i noticed, becky, yesterday the tenure done by the bank, they rejected 250, and it's not a lot of money in the grand scheme of things in the size of the british debt market, but it's a sizeable rejection, so it's a little unclear as to whether or not there's a meeting of the minds as to the price that the bank of england is stepping in at, which is always a question as to what price do you step in. do you step in a price at market or below market, and it depends on what your opinion is as the central bank to help out a counterpart. >> we have moved in this country to define contribution, and reading what these pension managers are dealing with in the uk, reading it was unsettling and they have a lot of undefined benefits, and they had to match liabilities with what they were

going to be able to pay out for sure to these people so these things are leveraged up, and they need the long bonds because of the way it's all set up, so if they sell them back to the bank of england at a loss and rates continue to go up, when they replace it, they will have to buy back for more money who would sell they are offering buy $10 billion, and they are getting 600 million in takers. none of it reads to me good. >> keep the window open. yeah >> you need the big bazooka, i think, to convince people -- >> but, joe, my read of the bank of england is that they are not -- i don't actually know what price they are coming to offer these -- >> they are not offering market rates. >> i think it's above -- you know, joe, i think there's the idea where you lend at a premium

and you don't come in and lend at market or below market, you make it more expensive for them to come to the bank, and i guess you raise a good point as to whether or not if the boe wants to settle this, it needs to come in with more aggressive tenures or prices. >> those acronyms. we have had enough acronyms especially if it's about derivatives and things seems like we have seen this movie before >> hoping not. i don't want a sequel. in the meantime, one of the stars of t f1, jamie dimon >> where do you see the s&p 500? >> i don't know. it may have a way to go, and it

depends on the hard landing or soft landing, and it's hard to answer that, and it could be another 20%. i think the next 20% will be more painful than the first, and rates going up another hundred basis points, and people are not used to it, andi think negativ rates when all said and done will have been a complete failure. take a look at futures, we are in the red this morning. dow, looks like we open down 125 points, and nasdaq offbo aut 58 paints and s&p down about 20 points you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc re mind-blowing! they collect hundreds of data points like hrv and rem sleep, so you know all you need for recovery. and you are? i'm an investor...in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to... nasdaq 100 innovations like...

wearable training optimization tech. uh, how long are you... i'm done. i'm okay. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ introducing ihg one rewards. seventeen hotel brands. six thousand global destinations. one loyalty program that lets you guest how you guest.

pst. girl. you can do better. at least with your big-name wireless carrier. one loyalty program that lets with xfinity mobile you can get unlimited for $30 per month on the nation's most reliable 5g network. they can even save you hundreds a year on your wireless bill over t-mobile, at&t, and verizon. wow. i can do better! yes you can! i can do better, too! see how easy it is to save hundreds a year on your wireless bill over t-mobile, verizon, and at&t. talk to our switch squad at your local xfinity store today.

welcome back to "squawk box. jamie dimon, here's his read on the u.s. economy, what he's seeing as the financial giant. >> the economy is still doing well, and they are spending 10% more than last year, and debt has gone up a little bit and not nearly to precovid levels, and companies are in good shape. credit is very good. markets are still open, though

rocky and stuff like that. you can't talk about the economy and talk about the stuff in the future, and this is serious stuff. this is inflation, which obviously is changing the affects of the numbers i told you about, and it's rates going up more than people expected already, and more from here, and it's kt which we never had before, and it's the war, and these are very, very serious things, which are likely to push the u.s. and the world -- i mean, europe is already in a recession, and they are likely to put the u.s. in some kind of recession six months from now. joining us now, the ceo and chief investment officer at defiance etfs. good morning to you. let me get your thoughts on ja jamie dimon's comments business today, everything looks

good, except we are worried about what is going to happen six to nine months from now. there's no signal just yet that our business is going to be worse in six to nine months, but we believe it's going to be worse in six to nine months, so therefore the questionis will they be right or wrong >> yeah, good morning. i think it's hard to call whether they will be right or wrong, and there are signs -- there's two parts, there's the economy and the market, and there are signs the market is bottoming out, and you see this state of over sold stocks right now in the market, and one-third of nasdaq is gone, and there's a big hit there and i think that has an impact on people, consumers and spending and your view of your own financial wealth, and that dips into the economy. the answer is it depends, it depends on what the fed does i think if we keep seeing these aggressive rate hikes and don't pause to take in the data and

consider things like food falling, mortgages falling, and airline tickets and things happening, and i think the consumer will be impacted in six to nine months right now, and we will risk that recession >> let me ask maybe in a different way, then, for those viewers who were watching jamie dimon talk about the prospect that the stock market could fall another 20%, right, and we have heard that kind of idea, and paul jones said equities were still too high and we have heard that repeatedly now. historically we have told the investors, and the financial community said hold off on your portfolio than to sell things, because you will never time it right, but if there's 20% to go, maybe you do want to be in some cash, no >> yeah, i think it's a tough thing. you are right, people have gotten advice like hang in

there, so my view on this is if we get the slight earnings recession, and the worst-case scenario to me would be the soft to medium landing, and corporate america is in good shape, and we don't have a 2008 situation on your hands, and so that brings you down to a 3200 level, and that's not a 20% move. if you don't need the cash today, and if you sell now and want to get back in the market, and if you don't need cash, i would wait it out. if you look at the charts since the 1950s, a year after say today or so the market bottoms out before the economy does and you see the double digit returns. if you stayed in the market you would get your money back.

>> that's the other sort of historical question. you said 1950s, and i was saying if you started to think about the 1970s, it's clear for the last 40 years it has been up to the right for the most part, there has been a 12 or 18 month or 24 month blitz, and if you held your breath, two years later everything would be relatively fine. the question is are we moving into some kind of period where everything is not relatively fine is this the 1970s in which a dollar in 1970 was still not a dollar in 1980 >> yeah, i think there are a few things that are different, and so the investment and innovation and technology and the way our economy will change in the next decade, you know, there's a lot of demand to create a new world where we have to replace workers to kind of get past this, and you will see companies invest in technology, and jobs are

stronger than back then, and corporations are stronger. i do think there's enough of things that are sort of different than they were in the '70s, and inflation is coming down and the fed has to look atwhat the impact of the strong dollar will do to the rest of the world, and it can't go on forever with aggressive rate hikes and being as strict as they want to be with the policy. i think we will have that pause and kind of get back to normal before not is that 12 months out? it might be, but i don't think it's a decade of no growth or returns in the market. going back to your question, i think it's wiser to stay invested in the market rather than to recognize these masses losses if you pull your money out of the nasdaq now, you will lose one-third of your investment and that's a tough pill to swallow >> i want to thank you you are right.

>> thank you >> the saddest part of all this, you have to be right twice, you have to be right about getting out and then in again. appreciate it. >> thank you when we come back, we have a unique snapshot of the american consumer this is bank of america sharing data and spending and borrowing, too. we will talk about the housing market and what they are seeing there. this is unique information first, before we head to break, let's look at nasdaq's biggest winners and losers you are watching "squawk box" on cnbc the new iphone 14 pro is amazing. the camera is incredible. and you'll get our best deal. nice, but i can't accept it.

unless every business gets the best deal. on every iphone. uh, actually... we already do that. the plumber with the ascot! big bjorn, little bjorn, too! the caterer who really cares. every business should get the deal! we make a good team. every business gets at&t's best deals on every iphone. including up to $800 off iphone 14 pro. (♪ ♪)

- [narrator] if your business kept on employees through the pandemic, getrefunds.com can qualify you for a payroll tax refund of up to $26,000 per employee, even if you got ppp. and all it takes is eight minutes to find out. then we'll work with you to fill out your forms and submit the application. that easy. getrefunds.com has helped businesses like yours claim over $1 billion in payroll tax refunds. but it's only available for a limited time. go to getrefunds.com powered by innovation refunds.

welcome back to "squawk box. the futures are bouncing off the lows of the session. that's something, some straw we are grasping at now, and you can see dow down about 150 -- no, 151 -- i can do it all day long and it keeps changing. about o150.

a real time estimate of u.s. consumer spending and financial health based on bank of america's proprietary data, and there are warning signs about the housing market candace, the big takeaway on these numbers, which we have been watching really closely all year, is that the housing market is showing signs of strain for the consumer, and when you think of what the pain means to the consumer it's more significant and more severe? >> our data shows that one thing we did this month is we looked at payments to escrow and payments for title, and you can see there's a very significant slowdown in fact, it has been negative throughout 2022, which ties in with this weakness in housing, which is partly caused by affordability issues, but what we have seen is that the median

mortgage payment for our customers is up 8.8%, and the median rent payment is up 8.1% so there's a lot of pressure in housing, but there are also positive spots for the consumer. >> which would be what >> well, let's start with wages. we -- look, we look at the after tax payments that our customers are getting and those are up 5.5% that's a healthy increase. if we look at what they are spending per household on credit and debit cards, it's just under 4.5% so people are spending, you know, less than they are bringing in. >> what does that tell you the concern i would have from that is wages are up but they are not keeping pace with inflation, and 5.5% is not what the cpi is telling us, costs are going up, and maybe they are not spending enough because they are tightening their belts because they are worried about a

slowdown >> yes, but what is interesting about it first of all, we are coming off torrid paces, and 4.5 is a healthy and i would argue, somewhat normal number, and they are not overtaking from their savings at this point. we see very healthy savings continuing they are not pulling down their credit cards what is interesting is where you see where they are pulling back and where they are spending. >> where are they pulling back >> pulling back on housing, as we discussed, and pulling back on things like furniture, and good spending so the holiday sales are not looking good so far, and it's a little early on holiday. boy, are they out there traveling. we have interesting numbers on travel >> are those reflections of trips they planned a while ago and are still taking and is there a way to track are they still planning >> yes, there are ways to plan

that -- to see that, and we are seeing that in the purchases of the airline tickets, and those are up strong, double digits people are not only traveling now but tending to travel, particularly over the holidays what is interesting in the data is to look at how much they are spending when they do travel, so in the 21 days after labor day, we look to the point of sale for people using credit cards outside the united states, up 29%. a big number >> credit card spending has been incredibly strong, and as you pointed out when we were sitting down, it's a small portion of the overall spend for consumers. >> becky, that is such an important point. we all talk about credit card spending, and credit cards are 80% of the transactions, and they are only 20% of the total dollars that people spend, because think about it, you don't pay your rent or utilities with a credit card >> i wish i could so i could get

the miles. >> exactly >> but it is a big portion of the skdiscretionary spend, and u are going to keep paying your rent if you can, and keep paying your car payments and utilities, and that discretionary spend is if we were going to cut back, that's where it would be >> there are swings and roundabouts on that, and you would use your credit card to pay for gas, for example what we have seen in some other consumer checkpoints is people got relief at the pump and then utility costs went up about 16%. yes, credit cards are a good measure of discretionary spending, but the thing about this data that is so powerful, is we get to see payments through other channels, credit cards, and it's a rich data set. >> it's not a survey where you

talk to 1,500 people and say here's what is happening, and you are saying how much money going through, and what percentage of what americans spend. >> overall, what is interesting about this month, there are some things up a lot and some things under pressure, like housing, but really, overall, the consumer is pretty steady. >> that's the big takeaway from this, and that's the story throughout, and people are saying it's a recession, and the numbers are not showing up for consumers? >> we are not seeing those numbers just yet, and we are looking at the tipping point, and the bad news is going to be an indicator that the fed can lighten up, and we are seeing a steady consumer at this point hanging in there >> candace, thank you very much for coming in today. a pleasure >> thank you still to come this morning, outspoken british political politician, nigel farage will be

with us, and plus a warning from jamie dimon ahead of thursday's key inflation report, and then talking to senator kevin cramer, and then also an interview with janet yellen at 4:00 p.m. eastern time on "closing well. you're watching cnbc so you'll never sit this one out. icy hot pro with 2 max-strength pain relievers. if you wake up thinking about the market and want to make the right moves fast... get decision tech. for insights on when to buy and sell. and proactive alerts on market events. that's decision tech. only from fidelity.

welcome back to "squawk box" here live from times square. take a look at the futures a little painful this morning. red on the screen, and the dow off about 102 points better than before >> a relative basis. >> s&p off about 18 points, and the nasdaq looking to open down about 60 points right now. in the uk's challenge to boost growth while contending with the ballooning government debt, the bank of england announcing an expansion of the emergency bond buying operation. joining us now, nigel farage,

the brexit party leader. nigel, how is the honeymoon period for the new prime minister how is that going? >> yeah, not so good, really i mean, i technically left the wedding reception, frankly here's the interesting thing, she is coming in with a new approach to economics, and she's saying we need the uk to be competitive and what we want to do is cut taxes and lift incentives, and i thought great when i heard that statement, because we have become a low productivity economy, and it went from 45 p to 40 p, and all the big global organizations do not want to see tax cuts, and

the reality of why the pound is in trouble has nothing to do with the tax cuts at all, it is because of the energy bailout, which dwarfs -- it's a very inexperienced new prime minister and chancellor that got their messaging wrong, and they have been savaged for it. >> we talked about the ineffectness, or the paradoxical way we try and handle inflation by killing demand, and there has been a list of people that say, look, you want to increase the supply for when you have tightness and you have inflation, and you immediately think of tax cuts or less regulation, and you don't think that notion ran head long into the reality of the situation that it's not feasible at this point to do?

you blame this on subsidizing energy bills, which all of europe is going to have to do for its citizens this winter >> cutting top rate taxes from 45 p to 40 was sensible, and other countries are offering much better tax deals than that, and for us to be competitive, and mrs. thatcher all those years ago went the rate down to 40, and after all people would much rather live and work in london than any other europe center >> of course >> the supply side reform vital, and we have had half a century of legislation loaded on the british economy, and brexit can only work if we use that opportunity to reduce excessive regulation i actually think in terms of the big political pitch, they got it right three weeks ago with the

mini budget, and what they have not got is zero energy, and we have gone down the road to bowing to the 17-year-old, getta, and here's the real reason, the prospect is and it has been announced officially by the government this week, we are preparing to turn off our energy for up to three hours a day in february if the weather is wrong, and that's the real reason we are in the mess we are. >> others have said that a long history of missteps by the bank of england -- actually central bankers around the world probably had more to do with the dislocation we saw in guilts and everything else. now we have ldis and we know about leverage and we know what

happens when we have a period of rising rates, and the bannk of england, and the pound weakens again, and there have been other miscues. do you blame boris johnson for net zero it's a phenomenon what we are seeing, and there's pressure from the world economic federation, and the united nations, and do you just go with the flow >> every prime minister since tony blair has been a addicted to the climate change, and it's a self inflicted wounds, and we have oil and gas, and we should be like america, and on central

banks, the real point is inflation. both the fed and bank of england, despite the warnings, despite the huge increases in money supply said there's no inflation prospect at all, and when it emerged they said it was merely transitory, and now they are in full panic mode we have forgotten all the lessons. we can't just blame putin and the war in ukraine, and it appears modern day central bankers have forgotten, and we have the bank of england that misread the situation completely, and the government that has left us dependent on imported gas to keep the lights on, if we're lucky at least in america you are energy independent, and that explains why the dollar is so much stronger against the whole

basket of -- >> will they throw enough at this to where it's not on the front pages every day? >> i think they are prepared to throw whatever they have to throw at it, but -- and that's okay in the short term, but longer term, we need a radically different energypolicy, and we have to have significant supply -- it's hard to compete with >> what is the relationship with russia and putin and nord stream the energy independence would help, and you have watched putin over the years are you concerned about his mental capacity at this point, what he's able to -- obviously considering some things that we thought would never be in our future again and here we are

talking about it again >> he is boxed into a corner, he's boxed into a historical corner, and he's in a position where he possibly can't afford to lose face any further than he has already, and that makes us in a dangerous position. however what the soviets did in the cold war is a series of checks and balances that made sure that the leader of the country didn't literally have a red button on his desk, if he was given a command to use even limited nuclear weapons on the battlefield, that would have to go through three separate checks on the way through, and i think the truth of it is, if it got as bad as that, i think the russian generals would stop him from doing it here's the truth that is difficult to face up to, germany, italy and much of europe made itself totally dependent on russian energy, and

they were warned by donald trump and it was a bad thing to have done, and energy rationing has begun in parts of germany and public buildings already we got this wrong. but we, as an island, a brexit island, we have the advantage of huge reserves of natural gas and have not tapped a single barrel of onshore gas because we are meeting zero emissions -- >> and safeguards are still in effect, as far as you know -- >> yes, i do believe they are. i do believe they are. however the war on the ground is likely to go on for a long time, and all the military experts is saying russia is beaten, it's over, and however dire things are for the russians, history tells us if their heart is in

the right place they are hard to beat especially with winter around the corner. the key question is how much support does putin have with his generals, and i don't know the answer to that more than anybody else does, but don't think they are beaten already >> i feel a little better about some safeguard -- yeah, you think it would have been a red button that's perfect for a communist nation, i guess. well, thanks, nigel, appreciate it good to have you on this morning, and hopefully we can have you on again, and we will all still be viable. see you later. on that note we have a news alert for you this morning russia has added meta to its list of terrorists and extremist organizations, and this is just

interfax, and it's hard to figure it out, and stocks are down but only by 4%. and then when we come back, jamie dimon on whether the fed is late to the game. you're watching "squawk box," and this is cnbc we finish this now. let's go. kim, thanks so much for being here amidst all the market disruption we are seeing, companies have had to transform their businesses what do you see that is working? >> we did a study with the

oxford school of business, and the reason we did that is the success needle has not moved over the last 50 years, and people are focused on the rational side of transformation of process, and who wouldn't love a .700 batting average in the transformational space >> the six levers, when you do that you turn it to a transformation eq. >> how are you applying those levers to your clients >> one, embarking on the transformation and resetting the mind-set, and other is clients in flight having a bumpy ride and this is to get them back on a successful course. >> thank you for sharing your insights appreciate it. >> thank you

jpmorgan ceo, jamie dimon sitting down for a cnbc exclusive. we have been wrapped in everything coming out of it. what around the takeaways you had? >> becky, good morning and thank you for having me. first off, the jpmorgan chief's views, he has incredible insight into the health of the u.s. consumer, and his lines around the energy situation jamie dimon said at the moment the u.s. economy is in pretty good shape and the consumer is

holding up pretty well and in a good position as far as a balance sheet, relative to where we were precovid so naturally i asked the question, how do you think the fed is doing navigating through this period of uncertainty given the fact that jamie dimon says a recession in the u.s. is likely in the next six to nine months take a listen. >> in hindsight they waited too long and did too little, and they are clearly catching up, they are clearly motivated to catch up from here let's wish them success and keep our fingers crossed they manage to slow the economy down enough, and it's mild, and the far more serious thing is this war, and far more serious than the short term affect of the economy and things like that. >> i followed up by asking jamie

dimon if he sees the federal reserve cutting interest rates next year if we are headed for a recession, and he said maybe, if the recession is that bad then, yes, we could see the fed cut rates next year but it depends one thing he was sure about was our handling of the energy situation. he did not mince his words here, and he said we are getting energy completely wrong. america, in his view, should have been pumping more oil and gas from march take a listen. >> america needs to play a real leadership role, and america is the swing producer, not saudi arabia it's almost too late to get it right because it's long-term investments. >> he's calling on the united states to do more with the energy situation, and it's a topic in europe as we head into the winter and europe trying to

shore up its energy supply and it's difficult for anybody to call the market, but still notable that jamie dimon threw out there we could see another 20% drop in the s&p 500, and with my conversations with investors, this is what they are asking, where is the bottom? if you listen to jamie dimon and think he's right, it could be painful from here. >> yeah, come back when you can tell me if this is a soft or hard landing, he said, and he's so good at risk assessment and risk management, and he said, yeah, we're watching some of the early signs that you would see in a credit crisis, and there could be a big problem coming in the credit markets, and just kind of throwaway line, where he said if you need cash, i suggest you get out and raise it now

because liquidity is tightening, and when you get into the crunch where there's no liquidity, and you can't raise cash when you need it, and it brought home what we heard from other big investors, and cash is king again after saying cash is trash, and jamie dimon saying if you need liquidity, you better make sure you get it >> absolutely. i think that was probably the most concerning part of the interview, that there are signs of distress in credit markets already, and if we are going to see any cracks, jamie dimon says it's going to be in credit, and i know you have been discussing the uk throughout the morning. >> you have given us a lot to talk about yesterday and today we will see you soon when we come back, private jet service flex jet announcing

a deal to go public. the ceo will join us live, next. nurse mariyam sabo knows a moment this pure demands a lotion this pure. gold bond pure moisture lotion 24-hour hydration no parabens, dyes, or fragrances gold bond champion your skin

welcome back to "squawk box. flex jet going public today via a spac they're merging with a blank check company. first on cnbc is flex jet's chairman and also the principal of directional aviation capital. good morning to you. congratulations. i should say i think on this deal in an environment which as you know seems to be quite tough

tell us why you ultimately decided to go down this path >> first of all, there's been a tremendous demand in the increase in private travel we're up 60% year over year. when you think about the market and where it's moving, we wanted to make sure we had the capital to aggressively grow into this marketplace. >> when you think, though, about going public via a spac versus an ipo, i don't know if you thought the ipo window was closed, if there was additional opportunities to get capital in the private markets, i mean, speak to that because a lot of people have looked at the spac market, some of your competitors, wheels up went public via spac. you have seen how the market reacted to that. how do you thing about it? >> i think it's not your father's spac market anymore the days when prerevenue companies were merging into spacs to go public are so different. there's a lot of money in trust, a lot of spacs that are looking

for profitable growing revenue companies. and we certainly fit that bill and when you have competition among the spacs, obviously, it then lowers your cost to market. in many cases, the cost to go to market through a spac now is lower than if it was direct to market through an ipo. and when you take into effect that there's a $300 million backstop on the deal, then it also meant that it made it very compelling to do it in this manner >> for those investors out there today looking at your company and trying to think about the valuation and specifically about the comps, right, what is the comparable company to compare it to, i just mentioned wheels up that came through via a spac you could speak about some of the other companies you think you compete with i know at one point people were looking at blade as another type of company, but you're a profitable company speak to how you think the investing community should think about comparables.

>> first of all, we're so different from wheels up in that we're a subscription based model where wheels up is an on demand model. i liken us to a country club model. you pay a fee to join. there's a monthly fee to support the operation and a small fee when you take the plane. that model has proved resilient over time. 97% of our customers have retained us, we have a 97% retention rate so we're really not wheels up. you mentioned the big one. we're a $2.2 billion revenue company with $280 million of adjusted eebitda they have a large, i think 47% of their fleet is turbo props. 60% of our fleet is super mids and large cabins so we're much more in the international market the biggest thing about is the recurring forecastable revenue base we have been doing this for 25

years so we have been through slowdowns in the industry. we anyhow how the business is going to react when we go through periods like we're going through now. and so when you ask who our comps are, it would be more of the subscription comps it would be the netflixes of the world, those that have a consistent revenue stream with committed customers. >> what are you seeing in terms of the business night? we have heard from a lot of ceos who said our business is doing fine, if not better than fine. our concern is six to nine months from now, it may look different. >> never in our history have we had a backlog that we have now i think there was a sea change in how people thought about private flying during covid. and all of a sudden, it went from being maybe an extravagance to more of a necessity, so we're seeing a whole different flyer that showed up, a flyer we have never seen before. our average flyer is showing up

20 years earlier to start their first private jet travel that's 20 more years that they would be flying with us. so that's interesting. we used to do our flying used to be like point to point and hard to get to places now, it's really much longer flights, much more international. and that's changed significantly. so we have seen a change in the subscriber base. we have a backlog, and i mentioned when you join the country club, just because maybe your golf game isn't as good, you still don't resign your memb membership having gone through the financial crisis, having gone through the dotcom crisis, we know what happens to our kushmer base, and there's a lot less attrition than you think >> we have to leave the conversation there we look forward to following your progress as a publicly traded company hope to have you back to talk about it >> thank you >> coming up, continuing coverage of this morning's market swings.

we'll talk to noah blacksteen. a big hour ahead you're watching "squawk box.

stock future said pointing to more losses. major averages on a four-day losing streak and the nasdaq closed at its lowest level since july of 2020 meantime, one of the world tfs top bankers warning there could be a lot more pain ahead we'll bring you highlights from an exclusive interview with jpmorgan's jamie dimon and the bank of england stepping in once again, trying to restore

order to a chaotic bond market across the atlantic. we're going to bring you tlaetest details ahead as the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now. >> good morning. and welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. live from the nads dacmarket site in times square, we're not down triple digits i think that's headline. now, we have been the last week, week before, we have been hit pretty hard with the recent new down leg, another down leg to new lows that we have seen, two-year lows on the nasdaq, below 3600 on the s&p. we were down 200 where we started the show, so that's the only reason 64 even though everything is red, it doesn't look quite as bald, but it's

early. there's plenty of time to get much worse u.s. secretary futures nasdaq was down a lot more earlier as well. that has been leading or at least exhibiting the most pain for probably the most people, in the nasdaq there's the dow, under 30,000. we're going to talk all about percentages and possible moves down when we talk about jamie dimon in just a second treasury yields, as you can see, sort of behaved somewhat between 3.7 and 4% in the last month or so dom chu will be introduced by becky uick >> thank you, joe. the bank of england expanding an emergency bond buying operation for the second type in as many days dom chu is here.

this caught our attention overnight. >> i appreciate the dual introduction by you and joe. we'll start with the macro big picture side of things government bonds in the uk, their measure of treasuries, they're on the move with yields on the ten-year moving lower or stabilizing. you can see 4.43%. a hair below that, as we have seen this move just again, stable, not huge after the b of e intervened for a second time to expand its bond buying program in an effort to put cash into their financial system and avoid what it calls a possible quote/unquote fire sale dynamic in asset prices where foreselling leads to more foreselling and financial turmoil. that move is moving those treasuries of the uk or gimlt we'll also check on the british pound versus the u.s. dollar relatively calm on those headlines but drifting lower as you can see over the course,

this is the past year, but up slightly, that's the last trade, but remember, we're still below the levels we were at before the mini budget from the truss government in the uk came out. you can see just around here, so again, moving lower and drifting lower even after some near term strength after we saw first the central bank intervention from the b of e there on the stock side on the state side, we're watching shares of american airlines which are up 5% right now, this is america's fourth biggest airline by market value, raising guidance as well as guidance for a key metric that looks at sales and operating efficiency that's taking the shares higher for american, and end with sales of lululemon it is overweight, it was a neutral before they see ongoing sales momentum and an opportunity for outperformance in outerwear as people shift to fall and winter

clothing lululemon, american airlines both green in what could be a red tape today >> thanks for that meantime, we have to tell you about this, the journal out with this, former peloton ceo john foley facing repeated margin calls on money he borrowed against the company's stock holding. citing people familiar with the situation, they asked him to deposit fresh funds or provide additional collateral for personal loans as the stock slumped. foley had pledged about 3.5 million peloton shares as collateral they were worth more than $thee00 million a year ago they're now worth about $30 million. this is a sign of the times, maybe stories of where things sit in terms of start-up companies oftentimes that don't have great value and come down >> and liquidity questions >> you're starting to see it >> wonder how much he was in for.

you know >> borrowed against. >> yeah, if you think you have $300 million, you can get some pretty nice things probably. but then when it goes to - >> when 300 turns to 30, it becomes complicated quickly. >> we're all finding out jpmorgan -- not quite. jpmorgan ceo jamie dimon said the market may have much further to fall before it hits a trough. here he is speaking exclusively with cnbc. >> it may have a ways to go. it really depends that soft landing, hard landing thing. since i don't know the answer to that, it's hard to answer that, but it could be an another easy 20%. the next 20% will be much more painful than the first rates go up around 100 basis points are a lot more painful than the first 100 because people aren't used to it and i think negative rates when all is said and done, will have been a complete failure. >> joining us to talk about the

next leg for the markets, noah blackstein, senior portfolio manager at dynamic funds you rightly point out, we are held hostage by macro economic events, the markets are. it's not always that way, but it is that way right now. you also point out that it's rare to have the fed talking about being tight, athing on being tight, raising rates after you see equity markets down 20% or so, that that never happens i don't know whether you're proposing some kind of fed put because stock market prices aren't one of the dual mandates. there's not three mandates you point out it's rare to see them be so strident when you have at least a harbinger of what could be a big slowdown in the economy. that's what the market indicates, isn't it? >> for sure. and they raise rates both in june and september with the market down about 20%. you know, it's not like when you're -- when the government is

giving checks and depositing it straight into people's accounts, fed policy works through the transition mechanism called the financial system brainard is correct on saying the lag effects of what they have accomplished already. still, even if the cpi number comes in below expectations, i really do believe they're kind of data independent, not data dependent right now. i think they're going to plow ahead with their rate hikes regardless not heeding the words of fedex of the ceo of the largest bank in the united states or in the world, jpmorgan, could result in a mistake. >> that is -- the brightsoid is that you think that the absolute level of a lot of stocks are in a very good place to be bought if you have a five-year time horizon. you could find - >> for sure. >> really, you could find things for people to buy. in your notes, i was not amused,

i was kind of bemused you said the biggest risk to the market right now, and you know, there's what may be a deranged mad man with his finger on a button, but you think the biggest risk right now is a central bank, is a fed mistake. so that's really saying something, if the fed, if nuclear armageddon isn't as bad as what the fed could orchestrate. >> obviously, nuclear armageddon is an issue. >> the world can only end once i don't know how you manage a portfolio if you think that's a possibility. i understand but just making a point that the fed has immense power to do good or bad >> i think that, you know, we have repeatedly seen mistakes of going too far. you know, repeatedly from the federal reserve. that's more of what i'm

referring to than the nuclear war, obviously and central bank issues. we had a tremendous amount of intervention, whether fiscal or monetary, since covid. there are issues i look at, look, a shopping mall reads to office reads which are near lows, and there is a lot of stuff going on that hasn't recovered necessarily. they're going to where they are. this time last year, the great thing about having the internet is you can pull up every speech given about the transitory nature of inflation and the risks of overreacting to it, and here we are 180 degrees from where we were at this time last year data dependency is important as we're flying blind here, and as they are as well there's a lag effect to what they do, and the transmission merckinism for them is clearly through financial markets. it's the worst bond sell-off we have seenin 40 years

the worst portfolio since 1947 there is an impact to all of this with some lag effect. they might not care or this might give them some sort of, you know, there might be an idealogical reason why they want to have real rates positive for the first time the one thing i would say about investors certainly in the equity market over the next five years especially where growth stocks are on the relative lows, they're going tomoid opportunity, but there's something different this time, which is cash has a yield. by the time they're done, that yield will be over 4%. there are a lot of investors who have come into the equity market fleeing the bond market because the checking accounts and savings accounts because there was no yield for a lot of those people who bid up staples and securities because that's going to be a secular decline where those

people move back to cash, it's an attractive yield with zero beta, so i think the equity market could go back when all is said and done to rewarding return on equity versus return of equity. that is different when you think about asset allocation >> everything is percentages jamie dimon didn't exactly say he's predicting another 20%. he said it's possible. what do you think the possibility of another 20% in the s&p is do you thing it's likely or not likely >> i lived through 2000, 2002, 2008, so i would never rule out a possibility. that's for sure, but it doesn't have to be the scenario we're going through. unemployment level is still low. jobs are still being added they could change that quickly, so we'll have to see where things play out and where the economy shakes out >> you think it's worth it to get a handle on inflation, noah?

you think that two pretty bad options but do you think we'll say good job when it's all said and done we sacrificed the economy and the market went down 20%, but we're back to a lower inflation level? is it worth it do they need to do this? >> that i think becomes the longer term more interesting debate as to whether people are suffering because their wages aren't keeping up with inflation over the next 12, 18 months, versing not having a job and losing their home. it is interesting. >> it really is sophie's choice or something thank you, noah. we'll talk to you later. thanks >> when we come back, we're going to speak with republican senator kevin cramer from the key energy state north dakota. they're trying to make sure the biden administration does not

let off the gas pedal when it comes to domestic production >> also, make sure not to miss an exclusive interview later today with treasury secretary janet yellen at 4:00 p.m. eastern team on "closing bell" overtime stay tuned "squawk box" will be right back. thanks to avalara we can calculate sales tax on almost anything, anywhere, automatically. avalarahhhhh. what if tax rates change? ahhhhhh. filing sales tax returns? ahhhhhh. managing exemption certificates? ahhhhhh. business license guidance? ahhhhhh. does it connect with accounting?

ahhhhhh. item classification? ahhhhhh. cross-border sales? ahhhhhh. what about? ahhhhhh. ahhhhhh. do you have those budget markups? thank you. mmhm. [bubbles] power e*trade's easy-to-use tools like dynamic charting and risk-reward analysis help make trading feel effortless. and its customizable scans with social sentiment help you find and unlock opportunities in the market as a business owner, and your bottom line isans w always top of mind.

so start saving by switching to the mobile service designed for small business: comcast business mobile. flexible data plans mean you can get unlimited data or pay by the gig. all on the most reliable 5g network. with no line activation fees or term contracts. saving you up to $500 a year. and it's only available to comcast business internet customers. so boost your bottom line by switching today. comcast business. powering possibilities. ™

welcome back to "squawk box. this morning the futures have come well off their lows for the morning. we're down on the dow about only actually we're about to move to maybe even unch and we were down in the triple digit category earlier. also, a market flash google selecting coinbase to take cloud payments with cryptocurrencies he's going to aloud a subset of customers to pay with digital currencies it will also explore using coinbase prime which is a service for storing and trading crypto currencies. coinbase will move some of their operations to google's cloud from amazon web services a win for google versus aws in that regard and also potentially we'll see what this means for coinbase in terms of exposure and whether people use crypto to

pay for cloud services interesting city >> coming up, we're going to play everyone's favorite game, second guess the fed actually, we're going to talk about whether jamie dimon was right when he said the central bank should have started its quantitative tightening program sooner and you can get the best of "squawk box" in our daily podcast. follow on your favorite podcast app. you can listen anytime check it out now we're back right after this.

to adapt in a fast changing world,

you could hire a professional pit crew. go, go, go. sorry. nope. okay. fresh donuts - hot coffee! they deliver real time data and business forecasts when you need it. i think it was fine how it was. (air tool sound) to help you stay ahead of the curve... or you could use workday. the finance, hr and planning system that helps cfos make better decisions faster. on the other hand, we had a great fourth quarter. for a accelerate your decision-making world. workday. for a changing world.

welcome back to "squawk box," everybody. the futures this morning actually have shown an incredible amount of improvement. the dow is almost back to the flat line after being down by 200 points when we started at 6:00 a.m jamie dimon weighing in on the volatile energy markets. here he is speaking with cnbc. >> america needs to play a real leadership role. america is the swing producer. not saudi arabia and we should have gotten that right starting in march. almost too late to get it right because obviously there's a longer term investment >> joining us right now is senator kevin cramer of north dakota he is a part of a group of republican senators calling on the biden administration to make sure that it keeps selling oil and gas leases and federal waters senator, jamie dimon speaking blunty about things, as he tends

do do. he's of the opinion it's almost too late do you think that's the case >> well, becky, yesterday would have always been better than tomorrow but tomorrow is better than waiting another week or a month or six months or a year. but his fundamental point is right in that what's attracted -- what's distracted a lot of investment in the oil industry and gas industry and other fossil industries is the long term prospects of a return on that investment you can send the right price signals today and you'll get investment we know how to produce a lot more oil and gas, and we can get back at it, but investors to have to see a long term return >> what are the keys you thing the administration should be doing to push that, to promote that at this point because energy companies have a lot of inventive when you look at prices. >> that's exactly right. on the one hand, probably the easiest thing is to lift the prohibition of federal leasing and to get about the business of

renewing these applications to drill on federal land. there are thousands that are waiting. when the president says we have a record number of leases but nobody is drilling on them, that's because the bureau of land management is sitting on those applications for permits to drill that would send a strong signal. permitting reform would send a signal where you knew there was an end to the litigation for a pipeline that would move product to market, for example just just the attitude coming from the administration that the bridge to a transition can't be a short bridge nobody invests in short bridges. they invest in long bridges. i think frankly a better trade policy that recognizes that american energy in concert with our allies, particularly in europe, europe who is right now crying out for help, especially in the natural gas sector obviously as they head into winter, for a solution that comes from some place other than russia and instead of seeking help from

opec plus, venezuela, saudi arabia, let's get back to what we know, and that is that american energy is cleaner than most and we know how to produce it we become the exporter >> senator, i have heard from lots of leaders, ceos in the oil industry, who will say that they have had plenty of conversations with the administration. have you had conversations with them what do you hear from them what are they telling you? >> well, they often tell you what they think you want to hear i have talked to several administration officials, particularly cabinet secretaries who say, well, you know, well, we're lifting the prohibition on leases, except they'll only provide 20% of the 100% that are available for leases you know, they'll say we want to go through judicial review quicker, but then they don't they put up all kinds of road blocks in fact, in the bipartisan infrastructure bill that was in fact bipartisan, we put pretty significant reforms in there

including some nipa reforms for federal lands for natural gas, oil pipelines, but they find other ways to hold up things rather than the nipa process we did one agency rule for transportation infrastructure that again that just led to a different set of guidelines or guidance from the department of transportation that puts up road blocks it seems like there's an attitude that sends us, as you know, attitudes send signals to the markets as well, and we can do a whole lot better and we ought to do more >> you serve on a number of different committees including arms services, banking, budget it occurs to me we could ask you about any story on the front page of the "wall street journal" today when you look at the situation of what's happening in the bank of england, the chaos created in the market there, and you consider the banks here, are you convinced that there is not going to be a bleed over, that

we're in a better position given the changes that have taken place in the u.s. banking industry since 2008? >> well, once again, the federal government seems to always try to find ways to mess up what would otherwise be a pretty good thing. so taking as an example, you know, comptroller of the currency, the fdic, the federal reserve itself, cfpd, we're always looking to them for some sort of guidance, and yet what they generally send into the marketplace is alarm as an example, the esg movement, getting back sort of to energy and a number of other things these nominees that come before the banking committee that i sit on have anywhere from strong to radical views that send bad price signals. treating every bank as though they're all jpmorgan chase i come from a state that's

largely community banks and credit unions, and they just add more and more layers of bureaucracy and compliance and regulation that stifle -- making them have larger balance sheets that they ought to have. they ought to use more of that money into the marketplace to supply rather than just provide demand so i worry a lot, frankly, about overconsolidation and overregulation with regard to england, i think what england is experiencing and what a lot of europe is experiencing is something that we should be able to avoid as america, both in the banking sector as well as the energy sector >> one thing we can't escape is inflation. we have a consumer inflation number coming out on thursday of this week. it's why the federal reserve has been raising rates so quickly, so rapidly, what do you think about those inflation numbers and what do you thing about the fed's moves to curb inflation by continuing to raise rates?

>> well, i'm in the camp, and i don't even know that it's a debate anymore, that the federal reserve was way too slow and way too dramatic had they started sooner with more modest increases i think we could have avoided where we are. the problem is we are where we are. i have some empathy and sympathy for the fed's moves. these 75 basis point moves to try to curb inflation. the problem is it's fundamentally in my mind the worst of the choices i would prefer that we look at the supply side of the ledger, work more on the supply side, again, back to energy and american energy jobs and providing a better supply chain, if you will. but in the meantime, the fed's job isof course to try to curb demand i hate that we're there, but i think they're doing what they have to do i for one am not second guessing that at this point whether they continue at this pace for how long remains to be

seen, but it seems inflation and the fed response is helping to lead to some form of a recession in just hopefully we can keep it short and not quite so dramatic. >> senator cramer, thank you for your time. >> my pleasure thanks, becky. >> what is the name of that color? the center one, it's -- did you see it >> green >> that's it yes. >> haven't seen it in a while. >> that's it green. >> unfamiliar color recently >> a green thing there coming up, we're up. where the dow is up. coming up, the fed guiding the u.s. toward a hard landing or a soft touchdown the jury is still out on that, but the ceo of america's biggest bank is weighing in on what the central bank could have done better up to this point. we'll bring you his telast

comments and dig into them when "squawk box" returns

welcome back to "squawk box" right here on cnbc the futures.

at least the dow, has turned around in a big way this morning. we were in triple digit negative territory. nasdaq still off about 5 points. the s&p 500 off almost the unch situation and may turn green as we're talking. we shall see we're watching the clip stocks closely as businesses warning of oversupply the big international player, taiwan semi-conductor, look at where that stock sits right about now. off about 3% at 65.27. becky. >> when we talk about how the consumer is spending, you probably think of a middle aged american buying groceries, a new car, or maybe filling up with gas. but there's another key segment of the population that drives a lot of commerce, and this morning we have new details into how this cohort is spending. courtney reagan joins us with more on this, and this is pretty important data, court. >> it is, becky. this data has identified trends well in advance of when really

most of us have seen them in the market so this is the piper sandler biannual team survey overall, more than 14,000 teens from 47 states tell piper sandler they are spending 3% more than they did last fall, but 2% less than the spring. still, well below the 2006 peak teen spending levels the females are the ones leading with spending. clothing and shoes are the big drivers this time around nike remains the top brand for clothing and shoes for more than 12 years running crocs moves up in preference, along with crocs acquired hey dude brand, which piper sandler thinks is taking share from vans as that one moves down in preference under armour drops out of the top ten. the income for females hit the top in decades lululemon surpassed nike as the

favorite athletic apparel lend for upper income females lululemon also unseats american eagle for the number two clothing spot for the first time, although just barely generally there's a desire for newness in fashion which is likely the reason second hand shopping trends are declining as there's more interest in specialty players like revolve and lululemon's fashion lounge beauty spending is up 20% year over year. ulta remains the top retailer for beauty with e.l.f. the top brand, but cody is a winner particularly in fragrance along with estee lauder. bath and body works was a top fragrance brand for females and a preferred skin care brand for males even though it doesn't have a face care line yet. perhaps that's an opportunity that the teens have identified >> this is something that we have watched for years, court. it has been interesting, the trends they have picked up on in

the past i guess this time of year in particular, as we get set for the holidays >> absolutely. so it's exciting for me that mom jeans are on the way out, but crop tops unfortunately, getting more popular >> i hate mom jeans. >> i know. i don't like mom jeans either, but crop tops aren't tops on my list, but i'm not a teen anymore. so it makes sense. good news, ryan reynolds still number one top celebrity the teens have good taste. adam sandler moving up to number two from number six, who knew? and 10% of teens own cryptocurrency >> the best thing i have heard all day, bye-bye mom jeans >> bye-bye >> courtney, i have one question for you. crocs. i have been told repeatedly by my wife that crocs are unacceptable for me to wear even though i like to wear crocs. i know jibbitz are like the hottest things rolling, the little things you're supposed to

put in them. is this, though, a, is it acceptable for me to wear crocs. >> no. >> two, is this just a fad because i felt like this summer everybody and their brother and sister was wearing crocs >> so crocs are really, really popular with teens they are actually getting more popular. crocs also acquired this new brand called hey dude that is also getting more popular. so i don't know if they're cool for you, but for the teen set, they're very cool, and jibbitz is one of my favorite success stories of all time. if i am remembering correctly, where believe it was a husband and wife or a mom and dad duo that wanted to sort of dress up their kids' crocs a billion years ago. they started making the jibbitz and now they're millionaires plus some, i'm sure. >> it's cool for the cool kids, so none of us around this table should wear crocs. >> they're so comfortable, the most comfortable the most comfortable things you could possibly wear.

>> with socks. >> i'm not saying with socks >> that's the only way they're comfortable. otherwise they're sweaty >> much more comfortable than a flip-flop, i would say >> what's the supermarket chain? the supermarket von's, i wear vans and those are total dad -- >> those used to be cool in the '80s >> for me, when i forget to take the jibbitz out of the turkey and then you find it later >> a mess. >> never mind. liver, heart, gizzard. >> where do you stand on birkenstocks >> i like them >> you would have to kill me to get those on >> i like them they're cool >> if i go back to boulder and visit. >> you can get them in different colors like white leather, vegan leather. >> joe in vegan leather with

some shuerling inside. >> we digress. jamie dimon has news that's moving the market around >> jpmorgan ceo jamie dimon upgrading the fed's pandemic ereai performance. here he is >> in hindsight, they waited too long and did too little, and qt should have started sooner, but they're clearly catching up, they're clearly motivated to catch up from here, let's all wish them success and keep our finger crossed that they manage to slow down the economy that whatever it is is mild. i wouldn't take that off >> last guy who said that was john taylor. yeah, they messed up, but maybe they can mix it. did the fed wait too long to act and do too little? joining us are steve liesman and rick santelli. do either of you think that

something not horrific can happen from here or is it too late, rick, i'll start with you is there a 10% possibility that there's a soft landing >> i would say that there's probably more like a 30% chance that there's a soft landing. the problem is that the 70% is so much bigger that it isn't i can't tell you where it's going to come from, but i will tell you this. anybody who looks towards history will have a hard time finding any central bank that likes to exit any form of stimulus in a timely fashion it just isn't in their repertoire it's not on the menu it's never the tuesday blue plate special ever so i don't understand why anybody should be shocked. i think that mr. diamond really kind of nailed it. now, i'm not sure that what other stuff he's talking about that could be out there. but when you just look at the biggies, you know, there was a time where breaking hedge funds

was considered bad think long term capital. now we have countries that are breaking, whether it's the uk. we have southern europe which has its own variety of issues, and we have a global recession most likely that is going to remain a sticky environment, joe, because of energy so the u.s., the best thing going for the u.s. is that the rest of the world is further along a negative chapter than we are, and hopefully as we read these pages, we're going to smarten up a bit and not end up at the same place as the rest of the world is >> that's good and bad, steve, the way i read that, because maybe the fed does its job well from here on out we're still going to be stuck importing a recession from all the factors that rick just talked about, from europe and beyond so we have to deal with our own internal issues plus all of their screw-ups, which are further along than ours.

>> yeah, i think for sure there will be an effect here in the united states on what happens in europe i think the u.s. has a lot going for it, actually, joe. we happen to have an economy the size of saudi arabia inside the u.s. economy of energy production and it's growing and so the money that we would otherwise be sending abroad to pay for increased fuel and energy prices is staying in the states, a legitimate question as to what the oil production companies, energy production companies do with that money and whether it ends up being additional investment in the states you heard mr. farage talking earlier about how england is gnaw developing the resources that it has. we are developing the resources we have with some obviously political back and forth over whether or not it's fast enough, but it is happening. we also, i think, have a pretty dynamic economy. there's, for example, the u.s. is not quite so dependent on

trade as other countries are i believe the percentages are like 55% in england and 23% in the united states. so a lot of what happens here is the result of what happens here, less so over in europe so look, i think that the question of the soft or hard landing, if you're in the markets, it's already a really hard landing, an historically hard landing it's interesting so far that the tumult and chaos and down draft in the markets does not yet have appeared in the same strength in the main street economy as it has in the wall street economy and i think that's the last hope here, whether or not main street in terms of job openings and job losses and business closings can remain relatively removed from what's happening on wall street. >> steve, you seem to kind of indicate that in this country that we haven't been drawn into the energy issues of the rest of the world. we just had senator cramer on

who gave us ten things that we could do differently in terms of, you know, we're producing oil, and we're increasing it, but we're not doing what we could. are you really sayingathize. no overhang from all the issues that caused us to drop from 2019 levels open up federal leases, get rid of some of the permitting. we may be better than the rest, but maybe we're the best house in a bad neighborhood. i don't know which expression i can use anymore. >> look, joe, there's a political, economic, and ecological debate going on over the exteent which we should be developing fossil fuels. that is a reality. amid that reality of that political debate, you have an administration and a democratic party that wants to do one thing, a republican party that wants to do another. we have been increasing oil production and energy production in this country, joe >> we're still below where we

were, steve. we're below where we were in 2019 - >> i'm not sure if that's true >> i'll show you the iaea. i had ro khanna on the other day. we have not hit 2019 >> we're near the all time record >> we're not at 2019 there's a forecast - >> what's your number, joe >> you can look up on my twitter. >> we haven't built a refinery in over two decades. >> that's true >> we haven't built a refinery in overtwo decades >> you can look at the iaea. we're not back to 2019 there's a forecast we'll be there by next year but we haven't hit it yet go ahead, rick >> you know, one of the big issues is we can all fight over what our ultimate output could be we all know that there's a political mogul to ascertain whatever that level is i do understand we're doing more

than we were or may have if it wasn't for the pressures and the very nervous conditions outside the u.s. with regard to energy but even the saudi princes after the opec plus's meeting underscores that the u.s. just doesn't have the capacity to refine that they should have and we have been highly neglineg neglidgeant in that arena. it isn't a democrat problem, a republican problem, an independent problem. it's a big problem we need to address, and the excuse for all this is, well, it takes years. it won't be ready for years. we're still going to need money in years because i can make you a very solid promise that in a short number of years, electric vehicles will not, i underscore not, be ready for primetime. >> the grid can't even do it out of california. >> joe >> yeah.

>> you're right. just barely, joe february 2020. >> we had this discussion. you should have watched that day. we'll hit it in 2020 >> 13.078 in 2020. so 20,000 off. >> u.s. crude production in our forecast averages 11.8 million barrels per day in 2022. 12.6 million in 2023 it was 12. -- the current record is 12.3 million in 2019. ro khanna sent all this to me after he had to say you're right, i was wrong but anyway - >> that's future stuff i'll tell you what's happening now. >> no, the future, we're going to get back to 2019. we're not there yet. we should be and the counterfactual is we could be 10% above that, but we're not. >> that's probably true.

>> all right thank you. >> i don't even know if we have the workers to do it >> i know that there's a lot of reasons >> do we have the workers, do we have the metal, the steel? i'm not saying the biden policy is pro-energy. i'm just saying you had a pretty substantial increase >> those are nice birkenstocks where can i get those? >> on the website. those are nice they're not the birkenstocks - >> what about socks? >> these probably would look weird with stocks on >> do i retire all my mom jeans or do i still -- >> you have to ask courtney for that the rest of the results from the teens. but i think so >> you got mom jeans are mom jeans only for moms? what are mom jeans >> they come up real high. >> i have those. >> coming up - >> not the low riders. >> i have both

coming up, jim cramer's first take on the trading day. "squawk box" will be right back.

welcome back we are continuing to watch taiwan semiconductor it is down 3%. we have been seeing that news hit all of the semiconductors recently i want to get down to the new york stock change to cramer about this name and so many more

and what seems to be a little bit of turn in the markets jamie dimon saying things could go down 20%. the dow in the green this morning right now. >> well, i think jamie probably would like to say he was not as definitive as the 20%. it seems like he is. but i don't think he meant to. look, words mean a lot from jamie. if he walks it back a little, i think that makes sense this taiwan semi is very interesting, andrew. there is a big schism. they do not want to hammer the chinese. other people say the biden administration wants to cut their ability to do high-performance computing, which is cloud, and inference. so what you end up, if you're taiwan semi, you're making a lot of chips for people who can't sell them to china i think it makes sense the stock is down. i think it should be down more

as well. >> coinbase. google cloud is going to be both their provider now but allowing access allowing people to pay with crypto for their services how much of this is literally a fight between aws and google to get them on their platform and google cloud saying, look, we will allow this type of pavement as an inducement or is this some kind of bigger issue here >> no, as usual, andrew, you raised the first point and it's the first i remember when they did this with blackrock coinbase went nuts with it i think this is similar. no one is really using crypto in day-to-day business. and i don't want to mislead people mislead people in the sense that people bought coinbase off blackrock's news and they're doing it now

it's heavily shorted stock i will take your analysis and run with it. i think it's really good >> jim, you're a kind soul we will see you in just a couple of minutes i've got something for you >> i asked jamie when he bought. cramer may remember. big bias of jpmorgan stock twice in the past. and he told me once was in 2008 right after the bottom and one was in 2014 right near the bottom both mostly luck >> did he buy lately >> he didn't say, and i just bought some. he said see you in davos with a lot of american flags. 2008 and 2014. i can't wait an architectural firm, tending hives of honeybees, and mentoring a teenager — your life is just as unique.

your raymond james financial advisor gets to know you, your passions, and the way you help others. so you can live your life. that's life well planned. for 65 years, responsibility has been central to our client relationships and long-term perspective. it's part of our heritage. and it's the foundation for our future. pursue active investment strategies at federatedhermesinc.com

(vo) get the new iphone 14 pro on us. right now t-mobile is including apple business essentials pursue active investment strategies so you can easily manage your team's devices. on the network with more 5g coverage. only from t-mobile for business.

welcome back squawk futures almost flat after being down significantly earlier. liz young is head of investment strategy at sofi liz, what do you think is happening here we have had a lot of negative news and negative talk and yet things are getting worse all over again i don't know, liz. >> i mean, in these next few days we are in this waiting

period for earnings season to kickoff. this can be very pivotal we're only looking at expectations of 3% to 4% growth, which is not a big margin above zero the other thing investors have to keep in mind is this quarter, next quarter and 2022 as a whole, we are seeing sales growth above earnings growth, which is not a regular situation. that's been driven mostly by inflationary pressures so as inflation comes down, you will see that top-line buffer come down. and that's where the rubber really hits the road for companies on the bottom line and i think we will start to see that in this quarter's reports >> are you of the view that markets will be down as far as 20% over the next 6 to 9 months? that's a possible prognostication by jamie dimon or are you of the view that there is an upside surprise that people are missing >> i don't think there's an upside surprise that people are missing. now, look, i'm not one to argue

with jamie dimon he clearly has much more proximity to the banking industry than many of us do. 20% feels like a lot having said that, i don't think we're done yet the last time i was on squawk, we hadn't retested the june lows shortly thereafter, we did retest we failed. we went down 2.5% from there i said if we retest, i think just momentum could take us down another 5% to 10%. i think we're looking at a bottom in the market that's below this i think there is more down side to come. but getting down 20% from here would take us well below 3,000 on the s&p that feels like a big overshoot. >> we have 20 seconds. what would you do then >> right now, if you're worried about currency contagion, it's okay to own gold and treasure list buy the stuff is reasonably priced financials, health care, dip into industrials later in the year, you put some

of the risk back on. >> okay. we're going to leave the conversation there we appreciate it thank you so very much >> thank you >> final check on the markets now. we have moved from triple digits in the red we moved to red. 20 points off. s&p 500 off about 8 points what a three hours this has been >> the headline is you do like crocs. >> i do like crocs tune in tomorrow maybe i will wear them good tuesday morning welcome to "squawk on the street". premarkets trying to stay positive after four straight losses for the s&p and tphas dock nasdaq. a road map this morning begins with rising risks. jamie dimon delivering serious economic warning and the bank of england having