so we think it's worth a look here >> farmer jim? >> alaska airlines the stronge est balance sheet in the sector we see what's going on with news from american airlines i'm traveling this week, i can tell you airplanes are packed >> nice turnaround for stocks. we are in the green across the board. dow is better for better than 1% i'll see you in overtime "the exchange" begins now. >> yes it does, scott. i'm brian sullivan in for kelly once again welcome to "the exchange." here's what is ahead a big interday turnaround for stocks, even shrugging off midday comments by the fed's horrorloretta mester that more needed we're tracking everything from the macro to main street russia attacking energy infrastructure, irani oil workers going on strike. new fights between the white house and opec what does it all mean for energy prices and inflation ahead

we'll dig in and if inflation is really beginning to slow down, will some stocks get set to pop we're going to allow down just a little bit of optimism why not. our trader naming one group that certainly could rally. all of that ahead coming up on "the exchange. let us begin with those macro markets, because they have made a nice turnout at one point, the dow was down about 128 points we are on our highs of the session. we are up 359 right now. the nasdaq was down until really moments ago. a sharp reversal from this morning. which is interesting, because you've got some, i would call it, negative comments from the fed's loretta mester however, those comments not doing much to derail the gains she was talking about more restrictive policy to being needed are they listening to mester or brainerd there was a small sense of a pivot, maybe that's what's popping it either way, we'll talk more

about it consumer staples and health care, your biggest sector gainers. mccormack, your biggest staple gainers. you have i.t. and the communication services, some of your biggest laggards right now. netflix, dish, and what else meta, some of the biggest losers in the space meta, formally known as facebook, maybe should go back to being called facebook, because when it was facebook, the stock did well meta has just been one of the worst performing big-cap stocks in the last 12 months. let's also get a check on treasuries, because we know the bond market is what's been moving the stock market. ten-year yield at 3.88%. even more than the ten-year. the two-year at 4.29%. all right, so, let's go now from the numbers to the narrative and as always, we've got all of your angles covered. we've got the macro, we've got the markets, and we've even got the main street. steve liesman with the ripple effects, the report our fed will

be watching very closely on thursday miaa's capital with what it all means for the markets and your money. the ceo of frost bank is here with how this is all going to play out on main street and what he is hearing from customers right now. we'll get to all of that let's begin with senior economics reporter steve liesman. steve? >> yeah, brian, you're right the market has shrugged off these very hawkish comments from fed president holoretta mester she says she doesn't believe inflation has peaked a quote from her speech, quote, being cautious means the fmoc should persevere in taking policy actions to return the economy to price stability she supports a funds rate moving solidly into restrictive territory, going up above 4.6% next year, and staying there for some time. this is somewhat counter to what we talked about yesterday with fed governor lyle brainerd, who suggested there was somewhat more progress on inflation it sounded a note of caution

this is all going to depend when it comes to the inflation numbers. on thursday, we're looking for a 0.3% hike. should come down 8.1%. that's the consensus forecast. but it's really the core number, which you can see goes up by 0.4, but because of the past numbers, the core year over year rate goes up 6.5%, and that's what leads, i think, to loretta mester's hawkish comments. the issue of risks in the financial system from all of these rate hikes another consistent theme in fed speak. brainerd saying that that liquidity is a little fragile. mester chiming in saying she has low levels of financial stress a bit quieter today, with the bank of england expanding again today its bond purchasing program, brian >> that's not all she said i saw some other headlines that she said you've got to watch global developments for a potential impact back to the united states.

again, we're talking fed speak here you've got to maybe read between the lines, between the lines it sounds like she's worried, maybe, about what's happening in europe, some banking concerns. we have some imf numbers about global growth. >> you think mester sounds concern, is what you're saying >> yeah, yeah. >> well, look, brian, you are correct. she said all of those things and she said a few other things that were also somewhat dovish what i'm talking about is what i feel to be the massive thrust of this speech, which was a hawkish thrust she said, you can't even say inflation has peaked there has been no progress on inflation. she favors a funds rate that goes up about 4.6% yes, there are some lines in that thing that you could read as being somewhat dovish she said that maybe there's been some stability in wages, that there's been some progress on the supply chain all of those things are out there. the major thrust of the speech when it came to policy in my view is one that was very

hawkish, and almost in a way, somewhat of a counter to what brainerd said yesterday. >> i think more than just -- it almost seemed like a direct counter. but they're independent and allowed to have their own views. steve liesman, thank you appreciate it. >> so there's the set-up from steve. now to what this all means for the markets. joining us now is mia capital's chief marketist strategy, and you do have some reasons to be not so gloomy. maybe even, dare i say, optimistic get to that in just a moment but i want to ask you directly markets are surging, despite what you just heard from steve and loretta mester why? >> well, brian, it's nice to be with you again i think the primary reason is, they're not telling us anything that we don't know look, the fed will be tough on inflation. there's a war in ukraine, there are cpi reports coming out on thursday that are not going to be pretty. but the market is a discounting mechanism and they're looking ahead, three, six months down

the road, where things could be not as bad as they are today >> not as bad is not necessarily meaning good, chris. but to your macro point, i think, stock markets, you say, discount, it's a fancy word, for they try to predict. they move ahead of everything else, maybe 6, 9, even 12 months if we see a turn inequities higher to year end, could be seasonality. but do you think then that it is pricing in what can be viewed as a dovish fed pivot or at least an end to direct rate hikes >> right i don't think there's going to be a quote/unquote pivot i think we're entering a new era of a higher rate deck. but having said that, there are plenty of stock markets that do just fine with a ten-year at 4 or 5%. and i have several reasons to be not quite as gloomy as you mentioned. first of all, it's not a bad

thing, if we go into a recession, which i think we will, it's not a bad reason that the economy is too strong and too many people are employed this is not 2008, where the fed was rushing to catch up with events and it was really an existential crisis here, the fed is on top of events in fact, they're causing it. and when things get too painful, they can dial it back. it's a much different recession. we're already down about as much as we would be in the typical post-war recession we're discounting quite a bit. and inflation is a different environment. so it's not all bad. remember, earnings are reported in nominal dollars so earnings will look that much better, all things being equal so, and i'm not saying go out and buy everything around. i'm just saying, maybe the time for selling is over, and it's time to plant some long-term fertile investments in the ground that nobody likes

>> chris, i would like you to sit tight. we'll come back to you i have breaking news on three-year notes being up for auction. rick santelli is at the market >> this particular auction is the first of three for a total of 90 billion. this one is 40 billion three-year notes and the auction yielded a yield of 4.38. so a bit under 4.32 percentage look at the chart. you can see at 1:00 eastern, rate move up when rates move up, it usually means that demand wasn't exceptional. in this case, that was the case. i gave it a c-minus. if i was in a bad mood, i could have given it a d plus the biggest grade off was the fact that the when-issued market was trading 431. 431.8 where it ended up higher yield, lower price one of the worst metrics today was that dealers took the most they've taken in all of '22. they took 27%. that's the highest amount since the end of last year all the other metrics were actually pretty decent and we need to be cognizant of

the fact that not only the we need to issue a significant amount of paper, the rest of the globe, especially europe, will be issuing a whole lot more potentially and places like the uk that were supposed to be on the sell side of sovereign securities have found themselves on the buy side, indeed, we immediate to pay very close attention to the ultimate buyers here and whether they remain sponsorship for u.s. sovereign debts into the future, sully back to you. >> the eu today talking about adding more joint debt to combat the -- i'm not sure what extra money is going to do, other than buying more u.s. lng mr. brightside, a c minus instead of a d plus. let's go back to chris chrisanti. let's have a little optimism two stocks you like. domino's pizza and the cme group, very different companies

why each >> domino's is a classic recession stock. if you think like i do, that we are entering or about to enter a recession, pizza is a thing that folks trade down to in a recession. but, unlike other recession stocks like dollar general that have been doing great, in anticipation for a crumby economy, domino's is trading near its lows, because of inflation worries about cheese and flour, and also a problem getting drivers. we think a recession, where unemployment goes up will solve their driver problem and also solve their ingredients problem. this is a classic chance to get a recession stock at a bargain price, just as we're entering a recession. i really like domino's the other is, it's not cme, actually, brian, it's intercontinental exchange. same business, but we like ice for the. they own the new york stock exchange, they're trading at record lows, but they don't -- they're a financial that doesn't take any credit risk or interest rate risk. they're trading at a ten-year

p\e low. and they own the brent oil contract they just care that it's traded heavily, which this year sure has. this is a great chance to enter an iconic financial company at a ten-year low p\e. >> ice, not cme. i wanted to see if our paying attention, chris >> just dropping random mistakes on tv. chris, ami capital a little optimism there. pizza and intercontinental exchange so, we have now done macro we've now done markets, and now let's get to the impact on main street our next guest has a front row seat to the triple-down effect of rising rates on everything from small business loans to mortgages and savings accounts joining us now is phil green, ceo of frost bank. much bigger than most truly regional banks to be fair, fill, you're based in texas the texas economy is doing far

better than probably many other states that said, from where you sit right now, are we in or will we soon be in a recession >> thanks for having me. it's interesting we have a meeting today with the leadership for all of our regions throughout the state and we served three of the top ten largest cities in the u.s. and i will tell you that the economy is still good. in fact, it's strong in many ways but i will tell you, what we're beginning to hear from customers is that what the fed has been trying to do with regard to slowing things down and intrasensitive sectors, we're beginning to see evidence of that and an example i would give you is the home building business. we've talked to people recently where you've had some of the larger builders who are not following through on some development plans they've had on certain subdivisions, because of demand so you're beginning to see that, that flows through in

some of the construction activity that you see around that in preparation for development. things like that now, i don't want to overplay that, things are still strong and if you look at the numbers, particularly the august numbers, they still look really good. but what we're beginning to hear from customers who have that intrasensitive aspect, real estate development, those kind of things, we're beginning to see some circumspection with those customers in terms of how they move forward. >> what's the direct impact of these mortgage rates, phil you see it how big of a slowdown is it? >> you know, it's a slowing in the rate of growth is what we're seeing we're not seeing declines, but we are seeing some increases in time to sell homes let's say you go to a dallas mark that's really very strong, you'll see that sea breeze to say an average of 28 days, where it was probably, you know, at least a third less than that before take the austin market, great market it was a 15-day sale period.

st up to 30. those are still short by historical standards, but it shows that the direction is slowislow ing somewhat >> like i said, you're in texas, you're getting a lot of new residents, so maybe more insulated than other markets i want to talk about skoil and gas. there's been al of obvious criticism about why we're not seeing more oil drilling, which i find ironic in many ways if a three or ten-person small-cap, privately owned oil driller came to you and said, mr. green, we would like to borrow some money to start a new oil services business. could they get it? >> well, i would say with regard to that industry that they're in and the oil and gas industry overall, you know, what you've got is you've got problems with regard to things like labor, things like trucking, things like down hole pipe, things like

sand all of those types of things and you're seeing cost increases so you're seeing an environment that's not really very conducive to increase in production. and that's what we're seeing another thing we're seeing, we've heard customers talk about is, you haven't really seen an increase in frac spreads since may. and so the capacity of that business for completion is basically topped out today and also, the equipment that's being used is starting to wear out. and you're not going to see new frac equipment until next year some time. and so i would say that we are not, and our customers are not very optimistic in terms of the near-term increase in production that industry. >> you know, rationale words i mean, really, it's the stuff that i'm just not sure dc fully understands. you're actually dropping knowledge about why people aren't doing stuff anyway. on a macroside of small business, phil, if i want to open up a business down in east sheridan or the riverwalk, one of these awesome places in

downtown san antonio coffee shop, restaurant, again, could i? what is the state of small business right now >> well, you could the state of small business in our state is strong. there's a lot of activity, as you say. the changes you're seeing are mainly in sensitive areas. the state of the texas economy is strong and we like it to be there's lots of opportunity, and if there's not, i can't explain why we're seeing so much movement from other states, moving into our state, and migrating. >> it might have something to do with the 0% state income tax rate, me thinks, but that's just a wild guess phil green, ceo of frost bank, hope to see you in san antonio at some point. >> thank you >> all right, coming up, the gig may be up for uber, lyft, and others shares of those companies slammed as the government wants to change how millions of workers get paid, but could it be very good news for one old

school industry? plus, even with opec's big output cut, oil prices are falling again today. one fund manager hopes the drop will continue and it's not to help curb rising gas prices. as we head to break, let's get a check on the macro markets we were down earlier, we are u across the board now with the dow up more than 300 points. the nasdaq up nearly 1%. "the exchange" back right after this ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ be ready for any market with a liquid etf. get in and out with dia.

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welcome back a massive change may be coming for millions of workers around america. the government wants to reclassify independent contractors, so-called gig workers, to be full-time employees with all the benefits. and while that may sound good to the workers, the impact on companies and then ultimately the very same workers may tell a different story. and it'sslamming shares of ube and lyft right now deirdre bosa joining us now with the latest it's a potential move that would impact a lot of industries health care, contractors, but uber and lyft, their stocks are getting crushed on it, as well >> it would certainly impact their business models, if it moved forward. now, we should note, though, that those stocks have made back some ground in the session, as investors do figure out how urgent, how real this potential threat may be to those business

models now, if it does change the way uber/lyft/door dash classify their workers, the implications are huge however, we have been here before and the companies have over the years worked more closely and more constructively with the department of labor to find a way to balance protections with flexibility now, for now, wall street is swla divided on the impact rbc writes, much ado about largely nothing, says the ruling seems more directly aimed at those other industries like health care, construction, and food services. on the other hand, the proposal adds uncertainty to a sector that is already under pressure in terms of its market value and profitability. we have seen this play out here in california a few years ago. not exact same, but similar through a ballot known as ab-5 that would have reclassified drivers as employees gig companies, they ultimately want a carveout, but they spent tens of millions of dollars along the way campaigning against it now the labor department proposal raises some risk of

seeing a form of that labor pressures play out on a much larger national level, brian that's what the market the trying to work through >> i've got many questions number one, the most important thing is the drivers i've talked to many uber and lyft drivers over the years. not all want this. they've got their own reasons for maybe having more flexibility. there are certain things and you do wonder. could this be very good for the old-school taxi industry, deirdre. stand on a corner, raise your hand, you get in, exchange cash and credit for goods and services, because i imagine this will dramatically increase the cost of a ride >> is there any difference right now between uber and lyft and the taxi industry? >> no, like 50% more expensive i've been taking taxis a lot more >> exactly the price has come more in line. you have a ton of taxis in different cities across the world on the uber platform so they've kind of converged uber and lyft are valued more

like taxi companies. so there's that question they are facing all of these questions of profitability, but what do the drivers want it always comes back to this there are some that enjoy the flexibility that they currently have and are worry that maybe that will go away if you get better protections and there's a very large, vocal group that say it's time for them to be treated like employees. i have not heard this explained very well either way that you would necessarily lose that flexibility if you become a full employee so i don't know. that is one of the things that the department of labor would have to work through, and that these companies are working through. and i should add that there have been more protections, the way that they do business has changed over the years, as this issue gets debated >> there are also tax implications on the car. i would love to talk to a tax expert about if you're an employee, how does that change your depreciation around the car, which could be 40,000, 50,000, $60,000. that's a whole another

conversation in a different show let's bring in dan ives to talk about the stocks what's your take >> i mean, i think this is a potential gut punch for uber, lyft, and the gig economy. if you really think about it, you know, it was on the state level in terms of california this is really a shot across the bow for the department of labor, toward the gig economy, uber and lyft, and naturally, what investors are going through here feels like the start of what could be really a pandora's box. >> yeah. well, if it is, and we open the box, what's at the bottom of it? an uber and lyft stock price that's zero? >> look, i think, at this point, it all needs to be over the next 45 days in terms of what ultimately becomes, you know, we'll call it the proposal rather than the anticipation look, worst case, it could increase costs based on our analysis, 20 to 30%. that would change the business models upside down i do believe that it could be

bark is worse than the bite as they ultimately work through this in terms of uber and lyft this is the last thing that investors want to see, an already white-knuckle market to see the shot across the bow from the beltway. >> if it's 2 hurri$200 to take r from san francisco airport to downtown san francisco, you're not going to get a lot of rides like that. so ultimately, it just comes back to what the public will tolerate and deirdre and i were just talking about taxis, right? if the taxi is $75 and uber was supposed to displace taxis, the whole thing is very confusing. >> and deirdre hit on the point, too, because the parodies started to match what you would see with traditional taxis and cities and this is also why they're trying to balance specifically uber, gettinging profitability that's the tightrope and ultimately, this is going to be a pr battle between the gig economy as well as what we soom could have the biden

administration on the department of labor, and can they get to a happy medium the mar jarring thing here, this is on the federal. and that's really what sort of sent shivers to investors that have already been nervous around thesis stocks. >> because it wouldn't just be california, it would be new york, texas, miami, new york, california, everything dan ives of wedbush, the stocks are down today there's a lot of stock that still needs to be found out. dan, we appreciate it. thank you. by the way, this is not even implemented yet, it's a proposal it may never happen, but certainly, if you own these stocks, something to watch all right, coming up, if inflation is about to drop, what do you buy now we're going to talk about it but first, the global gaming expo is underway, where else las vegas? you'll hear from the ceo of draft kings about the challenges he's facing, including believe it or not, rigds sing rates you have amgen and walgreens,

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check out angi.com today. angi... and done. all right, welcome back. the markets are mixed once again. don't go after the messenger, but the nasdaq is back to being negative, not down a lot, but we are down in the red right now. a very, very volatile day in the mar market shrugging off comments from cleveland fed president mester saying we'll have to go after infl inflation. markets were up despite that,

but now the nasdaq turning back negative let's focus on a few individual names like lululemon, higher on an upgrade to overweight at piper sandler. the firm noting its strong sales momentum and opportunity in outerwear, like jackets, as the calendar turns to fall and winter roblox lower after barclays initiating it with underweight, citing challenging growth prospects now that the pandemic issin is over and people are getting back to reality. and meta is lower again after a downgrade to neutral a atlantic equities the bank saying that a macro equity is a hurdle to growth downgraded to a neutral when the stock lost about half its value. thank you, atlantic equities now to tyler mathisen for his cnbc update. >> brian, thank you very much. the white house has laid out its timeline for its student debt forgiveness plan applications will be available later this month officials expect the vast majority of claims will be

processed by the middle of november and relief funds will start going out before the repayment pause ends on december 31 prosecutors have dropped charges against adnan syad his lawyer says additional dna testing further undermined his murder conviction that kept him in jail for 23 years on the news tonight with shep smith, just four weeks to election day we'll round up the latest including key republicans campaigning with georgia candidate senate herschel walker that's tonight at 7:00 eastern time meantime, the biden administration reportically asked opec plus nations to delay their production cut for a month. "the wall street journal" says saudi officials rejected that request and in the last hour, the white house said president biden believes the u.s. should review its relationship with saudi arabia to make sure it is serving america's national interest brian, wow, back to you.

>> none of that should be surprising based on us being there and some of the commentary around what was going on, the relationship is getting -- >> is not good >> maybe we shouldn't use the word "relationship" at this point. we'll see. tyler, thank you very much >> thanks, brian >> and we are going to stick with oil, still ahead, because you've got those production cuts you've got protests in iran, and of course, you've got putin. just a few of the headlines that oil and gas, that even with that opec cut, could we see a big price drop ahead we'll talk about it, ahead

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maybe the only way he can die... is if i die too. [ screaming ] all right. welcome back to "the exchange. gasoline prices are back on the rise around america. according to aaa, the average price for a gallon of gas is up 11 cents in the past week and has climbed 20 cents in the past month. the national average, as you can see, closing back in on four bucks a gallon of course, all of you in california would love to see that, because prices there are avera averaging higher with many fearing that we could be heading into a global recession, are oil prices about to fall even with the opec cut and if so, are there still good

stocks let's bring in stan major, midcap value portfolio manager you brought some oil and gas stocks for us, but wildfire we get to that, i sat down with the saudi energy minister last week in vienna, austria, it's all up on cnbc.com, check it out. and he basically said that they decided to cut because they're worried about the fed, central banks and a major economic slowdown people can believe that or not, but that's what he said on the record do you believe that? >> not necessarily you know, when you put the math and look at it, people are rightly concerned about economic growth if the world economy deteriorates, that might take half a million to a million barrels a day of demand down but if you look at the outlook, there are so many much larger issues that would outweigh that. starting with the spr relief,

that's about a million barrels a day. russia is potentially a million to 2 million barrels a day china coming out of covid lock doubs might be another million to 2 million barrels a day so i would be less concerned about the global economy and more concerned with supply in the short run. i think that that's the real danger >> because the imf was out today, warning about a major global slowdown, that would seem to kind of play into what the saudi energy minister was talking about. if we have a slowdown, how much could demand get hit and they were basically trying to get out in front of it >> yeah, that makes sense. demand could come off, but the supply issue is so much bigger, i think it significantly outweighs that going into the omeck meeting, we felt that the market was balanced, roughly 100 million barrels a day for supply and demand you could have significantly

larger amounts of supply coming off. so we think that the cut was -- tightens the market even more. but the bigger issue, brian, is longer term. oil and gas is a depleting business the world is not spending enough money to maintain that capacity. producers don't have the confidence in the long run so we think that demand comes back, it continues to grow over the long-term, and we just might not have enough supply >> yeah. i mean, this is -- you're hitting on such a critical story, stan, because trillions of dollars are coming out, because people are talking about the energy transition, but there's absolutely no indication that the use of oil and/or gas is going to go down anytime in the next decade. i mean, that seems like you're heading for a pricing train wreck. to be upside to the upside. people pretending like we're not going to use oil in the next five years, oil use is going to go up in the next ten years.

that's not me, that's the iea, any other acronym you want to throw out there. >> brian, coal demand is still growing. >> coal demand has never been higher anytime in human history. >> yes so i think it's -- you know, we're fairly comfortable with the assumption that oil demand will grow. the issue, as you mentioned is that suppliers are not spending enough money to meet that demand and that's where it gets critical and there's nothing you can do in the short run while oil projects, the majority of them, you need 5 to 10 years of planning and very few people are doing that i always relish the opportunity to talk about equatorial guinea. cool country, very unique, a member of opec i've chatted with their ministers. awesome people and by the way, i mention equatorial guinea, because you brought us a stock that is the biggest oil and gas producer in equatorial guinea. it's a name we don't talk about much, but we should.

cosmos energy. kos. >> so brian, if you think about what we talked about, there's the potential for shortages. in the equity market, you don't need shortages you can actually have the price of oil drop pretty dramatically and these would still be the cheapest stocks around so a couple of the stocks we own, cosmos, apatchy, you highlighted cosmo. on current production, at current prices, the free cash flow that they'll throw off is about a third of the market cap. you're getting over a 30% free cash flow yield. they also have some lng assets that are coming on next year at the perfect time, which are probably worth 50 to 100% of the market cap they're not currently buying back stock, but we think they eventually will. apache is the same thing so currently, over a 20% free cash flow yield. if oil prices fell into the '60s, they would still have free cash flow of about 11% of the

market cap they have assets, tax assets, an lng asset, a contract that's very valuable. we think those are worth 20 bucks, so half the market cap. so they are buying back stock, which compounds all of those values >> dallas-based cosmos energy. also, you'll like apa, apache. by the way, if our viewers took the under on equatorial guinea references, they lost. stan major, thank you very much. appreciate it. >> thank you, brian. >> all right, take care. coming up, shares of draft clings climbing about 20% over the past three months. it is football season after all, but they're still down this year coming up, we'll go to contessa brewer out west in vegas to speak with ceo jason robbins about the state of sports betting and maybe even address some of these espn deal rumors i can siee contessa on the big screen she's fired up and ready to go we're back right after this.

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welcome back let's talk sports betting. you know it's something i'm pretty hot on. along with millions of other americans, it's huge so why aren't shares of the sports betting companies doing better it's a good question let's get some answers contessa brewer joining us live from the global gaming expo in las vegas where she spoke earlier today with ceo of draft kings, jason robbins contessa >> oh, brian, draft kings shares got a big bounce last week when news hit, but the company wouldn't confirm that it was working out a deal with espn so i straight out asked jason robbins today, did you do a deal with espn? >> we have a partnership with them already, an existing partnership that we think is really a great, you know, relationship, that is working well and nothing else really to talk about at this point. >> we've taken a portfolio

approach to, you know, to how we have grown the business. we have great relationships with nbc, cbs, we have some of the best talent in the world so our playbook has worked really well and we're sticking to it >> amy howe says she's positioning fan duel to continue investing and growing in the u.s. both ceos predicting the economy will mean more consolidation naturally will happen. meanwhile, another strong competitor is coming on the scene. michael ruben said that fanatics will launch sports betting in every state where it's legal, except new york, by football season next year and they consider him a formidable potential foe >> there's a lot of players. is there a fear that there'll just be too many players they'll cannibalize each other by offering people like 300 people here, come over here, and people have no loyalty and switch constantly. >> i think that that's a really good point that's coming. they think that the m&a, because

of the credit and liquidity issue is going to freeze up a bit. but as people fall off, yeah, naturally. and then, yes, they think maybe there's going to be five big performers nationwide. not 15 or 20 >> well, contessa brewer out in las vegas, by the way, thank you to the las vegas raiders for losing by less than 7. contessa brewer, thank you very much don't shake your head. it's making your industry. >> i'm bragging about being good at sports betting. >> now i'm doomed because i said that contessa, thank you. coming up, the nasdaq, the underperformer yet again today there is a trade here. we're going to get, next this thing, it's making me get an ice bath again. what do you mean? these straps are mind-blowing! they collect hundreds of data points like hrv and rem sleep, so you know all you need for recovery. and you are? i'm an investor...in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to... nasdaq 100 innovations like... wearable training optimization tech. uh, how long are you...

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welcome back the nasdaq paring some earlier losses but still sitting at its lowest level in nearly two years pf two years of gains wiped out. things could turn around later on this week, though according to our next guest he expects the cpi print inflation number on thursday to come in a little bit softer than expected. which he believes could give tech a much-needed boost joining us now is quint tatrow, jewel financial founder and president. how closely tied, clint, are the

inflation numbers, the fed and what happens to stocks >> i think it's one for one, sully. ultimately the fed has to, i think, have a print that they can point to where the general public sees somebody sort of resolution to this inflation issue. i mean, if you're an investor or you're involved in the markets in any way, you're seeing the input prices fall off a cliff. we're basically seeing all of the leading indicators fall considerably but i don't think that that gives the public any confidence whatsoever until they see that cpi number start to come in. so i think thursday is a huge, huge day and i think it begs the question of do we have an upside surprise in the market if in fact we see softer cpi >> although that's a pretty binary outcome, quint. the opposite to be could be true it's like betting on the raiders or the chiefs. if the numbers come in hotter then wouldn't stocks tank?

>> no question but i think we have to use some common sense and the best way to look at this is if you were to look at the month over month cpi going back the last year. and it's sort of like a moving average. in a rudimentary way it's not that simple but really you can boil it down to this. september of last year we saw a .4% increase in the month over month number that's effectively going to drop off. so if we are flat, as i would suspect we're at minimum flat and potentially down on a month over month basis, that brings 8.3 down to 7.9. in the month of september everything on the input side is down we don't know yet about the housing meaning rents and so forth. but you know, heating oil or natural gas, oil, many of the input prices were down considerably in the month of september.

it wouldn't surprise me to see a month over month down. then you go out one more month, last october we had a .9% print, which is also effectively going to drop off a month from now so i think people are underestimating how quickly this cpi can come down before the end of the year. >> it might. and suddenly we'll be happy about 5% inflation which would have been terrible before but now it's going to be great it's how people think. but here's the worry i have, quint. we've gotten used to these markets either going up or going down they bottomed out and now they're going to pop what if stanley drukenmiller and ray dalio, those guys, billionaire hedge fund managers, who are saying stocks could do nothing for five years, what if they're right? >> yeah, the old adage rings true, right? it could be a stock picker's market but the reality is been in this game a long time as you have markets do go up, markets go down but the reality is as we sit here today we are vastly stretched to the down side

you've mentioned the nasdaq and the tech, but if you look at small caps, for instance, they're trading at valuations we haven't seen in decades. so the reality is that any hint of good news in the other direction and i think we're going to see a tide shift considerably does that take us to new highs and ultimately advancement maybe not. but it might soften the year-end blow if we can sort of see a bounceback into the end of the year >> quint tatro, jewel financial. quint, always a pleasure to have you on watch that cpi thursday. it's going to be a big deal. thank you. >> thanks, sully >> meta revealing the details about its latest headset, virtual reality. we're going to get details, maybe even including pricing coming up as that stock is down 3% stick around going to live through that about 10 more times! (laughs) no stress. i just discovered yieldstreet. they vet investments that don't ride the stock market rollercoaster. - [narrator] yieldstreet: private market investing.

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virtual reality headset. steve kovac has the details. steve. in real life >> i'm in real life. and to be fair, brian, this event was also broadcast in vr so you could have watched it in vr if you wanted to. but let's talk about what was announced. the new headset is called the meta quest pro it's a $1500 you heard me right $1,500 headset it's going to go on sale on october 25th you're looking at pictures of it right now. it's a more advanced version of the oculus quest that went on sale a couple years ago. it has the ability to do pass-through mixed reality what does that mean, brian that means there are cameras on the outside that pass through the real world into the screen in front of your eyes. so you can actually kind of walk around and see the real world in front of you with digital images laid on top. now, if you want the classic vr experience, you can dial it up all the way to vr, put some blinders on the side and have that full immersive experience and look, brian, the theme of this event and on top of just announcing this new gadget, it was really convincing developers

to make apps and games and experiences for this thing because look, no one's going to buy it if no one has anything to do on it there was a lot of talk early on before this unveil that if you're a developer you can make a lot of money they talked about a lot of games. they've already made a million dollars or more in their oculus app store. and they're hoping a bunch more people sign on >> in a decade when it it looks real but right now it just looks like you're in techmobowl you don't know what that is. >> i'm not that young. >> it's like the block -- what do you do in the met averse? >> right now they're focusing really heavily on gaming, first of all, which is a really natural step for a gadget like this, but they're also talking about productivity and having meetings in fact, microsoft ceo satya nadela made a surprise appearance here to say miefrkt teams, the chat app you and i use to talk to each other in meetings, is growing to be part of this quest pro system, meaning you can talk to your colleagues' avatars in a meeting instead of looking at their real face, i guess, brian >> what the hell's the point of

that >> that's what i'm asking myself >> i don't use teams anyway. it pops up on my computer and then i just quit, quit, quet sorry. that's interesting we can use the -- we'll do this show like cramer did in vr steve, thank you i like looking at my colleagues. even when i'm not wearing makeup myself that does it for "the exchange." "power lunch" starts right now all right. welcome, everybody, to "power lunch. along with melissa lee i'm tyler mathisen and here's what's ahead on a very busy tuesday. stocks are rising in afternoon trading. for the most part. rebounding from earlier losses we are tracking the turn as the s&p attempts to snap a four-day losing streak. and can apple, apple do what it's done so many times before, and that is save the market? the stock reversing course this afternoon, heading just a little bit higher but it remains 9% off its 52-week low. where might it go next we're going to look t