>> they said it. >> we'll see if it gets to that in the moment. so -- >> he and shepardson was out with basically the same note "just stop" i think was his language i'll see back on the deck then "fast money" is now. the big cpi report from tomorrow if what we're hearing, inflation is not going a lot lower for potential a long time. what is the trade in the stubborn and sticky high-prided environment. plus batter up we have a nuclear deal that has investors kind of melting down later we're going off to the charts for three names hitting new lows, so bad, well, they're fill in the blank. i'm melissa lee, this is "fast money.

a full desk in house today a special appearance for the hour by the one-and-only chart master carter worth. we start with a big bet for a big move with you options trader making a million dollar wayer that the used could fall by decent, a move of 100 basis points in less than two months. in normal times that would be massive, but this would only be the second biggest bond move in recent months. the ten-year soared from august to september, it kind of made sense, but the question here now is what kind of signal would it send to this market. what would that world look like. tim, what do you think >> yields plunge been would certainly by a growth scare, and possibly a flight to quality, but the things we're experiencing now in terms of flight to quality and global

sovereign debt, if anything, the sovereigns are willing to let it run, and higher interest rates are what the fed wants when it's qt, and i think this is many central banks around the world, this is something we need to be thinking about i would argue, and we haved bank of england in there, the market was pretty volume at this time, you're seeing yields move higher we know what they said yesterday. they're basically coming out of the market tomorrow. i worry that european yields can bring up our yields. rising rates around the world are not one and done i know we have seen bad news be good news, and obviously at 2.9 with major implications for stocks, i'm not expecting it. >> what would the two-year be? what's the inversion going to look like? will it be a growth scare? i think the market is going to rally substantial from the midterm elections on you have both of those events happening. >> or if rates drop, it is the

reason why, and if it is a growth scare, are we dropping because things are going worse on main street. >> you know -- that's 9 other path that leads us there >> but what's -- >> that means things have gotten so bad they need to pivot. >> so now it's pivot back, because before a pivot was good. >> we are down 100 basis points by decent is most certainly precipitated by something extremely bad. but not by the november 25 expiration we're having a larger conversation around this trade, but to the extent there's no fed pivot between now and november, no way there's no fed between now and the first quarter pivot. in fact, look, what we want is the rate of change or less acsell raition on the fed gas on interest rates that is a moment for the markets. that's a moment that i think equities can can rally on.

i think what you're saying is if we start to see rates diving, stocks should be diving, too. >> there is such a division on wall street just to where we are headed and under what circumstance so under what circumstance would a 2.9% yield be by the end of the year would it be a good or bad one? the fact that somebody put this bed on, dan yesterday thought he said the fed would pivot to some extent that they would tell graph the stock and wait >> that's not a crazy. i know we're it's very difficult to not be political the.is they could tell graph, to dan's point that that pace is going to

increase odds is, did you were we to drop quickly like that, it means that something is really wrong, it means that stocks are materially lower. >> and remember where we were. i think it was an intraday low, but that was a catastrophic level, representing catastrophe. i do, too. i think, again, flight to quality is one thing, but i think the pressure that's been downward pressure onnese has not been about deflation or secular trenlds, it's been about central banks. juries still need to prove with their actions more than words that they're willing to hang in here we talk all the time about the volatility in the bond market. these moves in yields have been all over the place to me, if we're talking low 2s, we have something very

different. >> don't you think the market as overshot lightly we have seen huge moves, right so it is a sniff of a fed pivot. i don't know, i wouldn't be surprised if we saw a huge drop, even if it cements precipitous by historic measures in this day and age, it's not precipitous. we have at 2.9 all 22in' it's nothing >> i don't want to act like we can't get back to 2.9, but i think there's a lot of attention -- and really it's a directional trade. >> right. >> someone is putting on tail risk, the probability of which is very low, but if you gelt the direction right, the payout is extremely high that's what the trade is about it's not outlandish to think that given the volatility we've had, that we could see a move lower in rates certainly not to the -- i shouldn't say certainly. i have a hard time seeing 2.9%

by december or november 25th if this b.o.e. thing continues and chaos ensues, and you start to see flight out of emerging markets into the u.s. treasuries, you will see rates lower, and to carter's points, will see stocks lower. >> so i agree 100% what happens if it's just as a reaction to every different -- the inflation bubble being popped isn't that a case -- >> when is that happening? >> well, every -- >> lower is the keyword, if you look at the lumber charts, crude is down 25% or 35% every commodity, you can list every one, they're all way off their highs. >> if you look at the commodities that ultimately -- i'm not saying limber doesn't matter, but -- >> well, they go into housing. >> look, when i want to see what's going on with commodities

prices, i look at some of the traders. look add glencore chart. that chart is not going to the floor, but look, if we have 290 on the ten-year, go back to august or levels, the best asset class will be megacap tech, you want to be in the biggest companies in the world they're giving you an environment where, again, lower yields send the valuations higher, you're going straight to the cream of the crop. apple would be a $170 stock. >> or do you go to the long duration, but -- the growthier names, an environment in which there's a new yield? >> the real question is do you go after beta. or do you go after the snowflakes, the eittsys >> let's not forget the multinationals

the dynamic we have seen to the tune of -- i think service 6% in previous quarters. last it was 8 to 10% that's a material risk, and that's material alphabet you can get without having to slide further out on the risk curve. you can can be at a mcdonnell as other apple and constituent get a 10% pop. our next guest expects inflation to meaningfully retreat in the next kicks months mark, thanks for joining us. i know it's early where you are, so we appreciate your time the notion that inflation will come down in six months meaningfully, what does that mean even if you ex out food, energy and housing in august, inflation was still up, statistics still stubbornly high and big, even if you take out the big drivers of inflation. that seemed shocking to me

>> yeah. well, thanks, me will issa, you know, meaningfully means the cpi will go from something that's about now, about a little over 8% year over year, something close to half that all we need for that to occur is for oil prices to stay roughly where they are supply chains continue to iron the problems out, vehicle prices starred to roll over everything else stays the same and we're going to go from 8 to 4 over the next six months the real hard part is from 4 back down to the fed's target, on the cpi, the high end is probably 2.5%. so that's going to take a while. that goes to the inflation for services, some goes back to wages and the labor market that has to cool off, and that is going to take some time to go from 8 to 4, i think we get that over the next six

months, assuming that oil prices don't go up. >> you addressed where the fed is what they're looking at what the fed has also said is them real rates. so let's get it down to 4. can the fed be north of that can we have positive real rates? we've said that multiple times in the last 12 months. >> i think they're already positive i mean, i think when they talk about real rates, we talk about expectations, and they have already come in, so, you know, go to the bond market, take a look at one-year, 5-year, forward, based on break-evens, that's right on to the fed's forward. that's a real yield, a positive real yield that's going to get even more positive here, obviously when the fed meetings in a couple weeks and raises the fed fund rate we're already there, and that's

going to slow growth it is slowing growth and then the next step is to get wage growth moving south i think that's likely by early next year. when you think about the understanding employment raise rising, is there a rate at which you think the fed would say let's stop and see where we are? >> what they're more focused on right now is wage growth that's critical to getting broader service price moderating the goodness is wage growth is no longer accelerating if they start seeing that roll over, which i would expect by early next year after the funds rate at 4.5, then i think they

stop and say, hey, look, i'm going to stop here, take a look around and see how things play out. then, if we get into the next summer, and things -- i'm thinking of my script, then we're done we hit the terminal rate and we'll keep the funds rate into the 2024 if i'm wrong, and hopefully i'm not wrong, and inflation is more stubborn, then they'll step on the brakes against and we'll go into recession. >> mark, thank you appreciate it. >> yeah, sure. thank you. >> mark zandi of moody's. tomorrow a big number out, bad is bad is bad good? what do you think? >> i think a lot of attention is paid to it obviously markets have a knee-jerk reaction at the end of the day we know it's always elevated is it more elevated? i don't think it matters. >> yeah, i think the market has object sort a lot of it.

it would have to be a real yow lier number to start to move -- hot or low >> exactly. >> either way? >> either way. if it's cooler, it's going to give the ability for the markets to read into, will there be a pivot, what's it like going into year end >> i understand it i get it maybe dollars cost average, but i do think there is a bites towards, if we are modestly cooper, i think it's taken's a bullish sign i think that's the way this sentiment is shaping up. >> we hit a 52-week low today. cooler is better, so i guess good news is actually good news, right? good news is less inflation, that would be good by any measure. that's good news for the markets, but the fed will not get away from you. i agree with these guys, the

risk is to the up side that's not near fading. coming up, playoffs are underway we thought it would be time for a trader triple play could they be a home run for your portfolio or should the bench these names? plus partnership perkings. moderna signing -- surging after inking a deal with a pharma company that's sending this stock soars. don't go anywhere. "fast money" is back in two. ♪♪ ♪♪ be ready for any market with a liquid etf. get in and out with dia.

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welcome back to "fast money. we have a "trader triple play. first pepsi raising outlook for the year the to be is up more than 4%, its best day since april of 2020. i think doritos are like a regular family-size bag is $7 -- >> $75. >> not quite, but at 17% on average increase each quarter -- >> that's less chips in the bag, too. >> exactly but this is a story of the winners here profitability increases, higher

prices for food companies yield the higher top line, for sure, but in pepsi's case, great are profitability. they're also seeing some of the grains, some of the input prices are coming down a bit. it says the consumer has very resilient. when the consumer has money, and realize a $75 bag of doritos is not really a test -- and we're joking, but as you get into other types of food spending, it becomes an issue. >> it's probably on the expensive side, but here's the thing, it's also inchanged for the past 12 months is it really something to commit new capital to i would say no. >> the yield is 2.7%, but to carter's point, it's actually down 2.5% year to date even though flat 52 weeks. which is why guy makes a great

point. you don't buy no a different >> i'm -- it's probably a place where you can park money it's a low bessa play. i'm no dietitian, but cheap carbs and high fructose corn syrup -- >> you sound like one, listen to you. i don't know what you're talking about anymore. >> you know, this is what you're buying at your local corner store. i don't think that bodes well for the consumer at all. where do you trade down from doritos, cheetos and pepsi. >> store brands? >> okay. yeah marginal. >> i take your point in that if you're trying to fill your family's stomach, you might go here instead of buying real quote, unquote food. doritos hands down would you rather -- anyway, next

um the stock tumbling 13% after saying it was going to westinghouse with brookfield renewable. the deal is worth $8 billion why do you have issues with the deal >> this is a company for a long time is free cash flow positive, and we've talked about them often around the show, and why this is a trade that i think is is still early on, but i want to see this company continue to be free cash flow, and they have brought new production online. i don't need to see them get into this. >> there is a beta play in this as well. i think it's a great spot tots in both these names. tim's stock is much bigger

this is a lot smaller, but this one will react as well. >> how do these names look, carter >> here's the thing, trading 47 million shares, 12% of the float, but the market didn't like it, people didn't like it it did find trend, went right to the trend line i think it's probably been reset and stays here, but doesn't make it a buy. >> if i remember correctly, i think this was issuing shares, to pretty much people price the stock, but if you look at the cast they have spinning on activities, that's about $500 million over the last 12 months. i think tim mentioned this earlier, but you're calling into question how are these using cash and does it financially stabilize? that's the question here intel, the chip maker reportedly planning to cut thousands of jobs about 20% of

the staff could be laid off as early as this month. the company is set to report earnings this week applied material, the latest chip export restrictions could hit revenues by $400 million, in therms of the impact and we're finally hearing companies elaborating on the impact. >> so much of this being defensive, because it wasn't a high multiple chip stock if you think about where intel needs to go, it's not necessarily cutting corners and pinching penneys i hate the news. it speaks to demand and it speaks to more markdowns in the third quarter. >> we're coming up on the 22 an verse of its peak. >> 22 years ago? >> in september of 2000. it's never gotten anywhere near that it's a tough one it is -- i think it's a so intoedi good, but it's a small

speculative bit. >> now surplus, and now there's no demand, so i agree with carder eventually one of these names has to put a floor in, but the problem is in the this is the last thing you go towards when you head toward a recession. this is a headwind the market is facing right now it was already in a declining state wade before people have realized there's no more demand. last night we were sauce the sector still neither estimates to come down that's not even counting the -- that's a whole other layer of estimates. >> absolutely. the lone tailwind is the onshore narrative. but to steve's point, they have missed the psych cycle

they missed that whole thing so i think this is going to be a long turnaround story, and then cutting it, like i said, marginally cutting costs is not the past to profitability here. >> so we just grow will you the 200-week average what does that mean to you >> if we know that it's back to the covid 450id, the s&p needs another 5%, semis still have to drop 15%, 16% just to match the other indices. >> you know how we went from doritos to intells >> chips to chips. moderna on a new cancer deal plus credit check. consumer spending in focus, and our next guest says, there's a major shift underway the details are ahead. you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq marketsite

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welcome back to "fast money. moderna topping the tape today after announcing a partnership with merck to develop a vaccine for high-risk melanoma patients, shares jumping as much as 17% news, after closing the day up 8% the cooperative agreement will study the mrna technology alongside cancer treatment also fueling the gains, the fda authorized omicron booster for

kids as young as 6 years old. >> intraday, if you have something good, you don't close on the lull. you stick your landing like a good gymnast this is a stock -- we might have some stocks. all it did was really to the down trend, here it's sitting at 130. just term. still the market cap in cash, and the free cash flow generation here, i like this story. i think we're always worried about where they're going to put their next risk story. this story is a great story. merck to me is better for it as well, is this one of the story good story, good company, bad stock. >> is it >> yeah, i think it is, for me. >> i didn't know if you were asking other people. >> just rhetorical

when you look at the stock, down 50% year to date even after this pop, bug up 8% still down 7% for the month. so still a bit of headwinds, the mercks of the world is where i would rather by. >> isn't there something that they know something about the next phase of this cancer drug merck would not be reupping if they didn't feel there was good news in the pipeline. >> you spoke to the stock action, which makes me wonner, is it so bad that it's good? a revenue stream, most of it is tethered to vaccine, so so the them branches out and partners with a behe moth like merck is good to me i do like the story. because at some point, this covid, some flu variant or

vaccine, something has though give you have to get the next frontier, and melanoma, i can't thing of a much better one. and joe concerning will be at the disruptor summit. charge it or don't we're tapping into the consumer and how they're spending their money. our next guest and the trend they see. the ev maker on production targets, and traders are revved up on this news. that's ahead when "fast money" returns.

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the dow losing a 215-point gain to fall. six negative sessions in a row microsoft touching its lowest level since january 2021, now down over 32% this year. shares of apple dropping today, the company reportedly planning to withhold benefits to -- apple is down more than 15% over the past month on an upbeat note, norwegian, royal caribbean, carnival up more than 10%. the three best-performing names. meantime banks, counter credit war issuers with their latest read on the consumer david george sr. at baird, david, great to have you with us >> good to be here. >> you said the consumer is good certainly we have heard it time and time again at the same time we're hearing these aknock dose, things like

mortgage loans are harder to get, for instance, that they're tightening credit, make it more different for consumers to access that credit also, macy's they had detected some bad consumer credit data, and they cut down their inventory. they were actually saved by that so how do you model out what the fed will do, and when that will hit, if at all these credit card stocks >> well, it's a lot to unpack there. we're going to you, melissa, from my perspective, an adjustment period. if you go back to the pandemic, consumer spending really was we have 6 trillion in stimulus. they spend them on various consumer discretionary items now we're starting to see the

shift into more experiences rather than things that is benefiting a number of card companies like american express, given their leverage to travel we expect credit card outstandings to be up. obviously there's an inflationary tailwind, but nonetheless we think the consumer, by and large, is in pretty good shape. >> has there been a pull forward of those experiences, shifting from things too experiences was the narrative that started to take place in the spring and summer now we're at this point where people are back to school, back to the office, they may have gone on the big giant vacations they didn't take for two years already over the summer. now business travelers are probably out there again, but when is the next big family vacation going to take place at this point >> yeah, i think that's right. there's absolutely some pull forward. i think it's fair to consume that activity will moderate a bit, probably something more in

the mid to high single-signature area that's still, by historical standards, a pretty robust number this is obviously a backward-looking indicator we have 3.5% unemployment, a pretty nice, if you look at consumer checking account balances, they're still above pre-pandemic levels. you're starting to see that draw from the peak, but still above the prior peak before the pandemic. >> what does it look like when unemployment is at 5% and interest rates are much higher than here, and the rate you're paying on the credit card is much higher shockingly, because it's pretty high as it stands. >> yeah, sure. as you can imagine, there's a fairly linear relationship between credit card losses and unemployment traditionally -- keep in mind, for the last 15 years, we have stress-tested these companies to depressionary levels, but to give you a sense, if

unemployment were to go to 5, charge-offs would go from 175 basis point. we would characterize normal to be in that 2.75 to 3% area we think the card companies could withstand higher losses without having a major earnings issue or a net income loss in a particular quarter. >> so, david, when you look at it and see how strong the consumer is, it just seems there was so much money throw at the consumer with the free checks in the mail and everything else that we had to do. is there just an elongated timeline, duration to how much weaker that consumer will get? it's going to take a lot longer to get for that rubber meets 9 road >> well, to your question, it's really a function of this adjustment and normalization period we really need to go back to

2019, steve, to kind of look at what's really the most normal. that's going to take some time it may be the end of 2023 before we find that equilibrium, but the bottom line is the consumers are in pretty good shapes, and the stocks are -- which is why we think there's a trade opportunity in these names. >> it sounds like you should have a screaming buy if they can we are 8% to 10% unemployment, we're nowhere near that many of them are buys? david? >> sorry about that. you cut out for a moment yeah, we're very constructive on t the. what i would call -- and six, eight months ago when everyone loved financials, they were

mispriced. now we think we're in the opposite situation the narrative is negative, but the prices we think more than discount that here. >> david, thank you so much for joining us. >> thank you david george of baird. who likes these stocks >> i like them i want to point out we haven't even begun to see loan pricing and marks being hung on these banks. i think a lot of the investment estimates are things i worry about. i just think these banks are priced for something much worse than what we have. if we have a recession, banks are front and center 95% repriced in recession. we haven't >> there's a wisdom in price, so the question is, is the market wrong? all people who are buying is -- or is the market right valuation is one of the hardest -- let's say jpmorgan

wells and citi -- it's a 20% decline. here's the thing, the bkx is trading at the same exact price as it was in 1998. that's 24 years of -- adjusted for inflation, you've just cut yourself down by 70% >> right, but 90% dilution, and you wipe -- >> and aig and other stuff. >> i would point out, the xlf is flat so you have done zero. what david pointed out is it's down 30% in the last six months. again, you have done nothing in financial. >> no argument sentiment is definitely negative. american express, achiever levered to travel, i can get behind that, but capital one had -- that's a lower-quality

consumer that has access you're packaging them up and selling them in clos >> the other side of this thinking about the danger that lurks? >> you see what's going on in london right now we opened this show, talking about nothing but the volatility in sovereign markets, and so i'm just making a differential between an american express with a much higher credit quality consumer, versus a capital one i think the loan growth on those two shouldn't be treated the same coming up, options with a little electricity are there more gains to come what options traders are betting for the luxury maker and we are celebrating two of our cn. contributors. here's one >> i was born and raised in puerto rico. then i went to college in the midwest. it open my eye to say a world of possibility, to pursue the

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lose i had mothers jumping today. it cut its products estimates twice this year options trader, dennis joins us with the action. >> hi, melissa it caught my options today investors bought 45,000 of the 13 half calls expiring in two days that's a sizable trade it a stock like lose i had. almost 100% over a ten-day

moving moving average. so 1.3 million that control close to $60 million worth of stock. bono, what do you think? >> short squeeze i just think the train is in the wrong direction altogether, about you that 22, 25% short interest is a real reason if you're short to be covering something up >> i feel like carter has something pithy to say. >> anyone with that short time frame knows something or they think they know something,

because it's outright speculation. all right. good word. dennis, thank you. for more options action tune into the full show on friday coming up, so bad it's, what fill in the blank. you have a basket of names in the dump, but are they heading higher or lower? he'll tell us, next. i'm so glad we did this.

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welcome back here's a sneak peek at the cramer-cam catch the full exclusive interview at the top of the hour on "mad money." we can't counter the chart master on set for a full hour without looking at some charts we came up with a new spin on an old favorite so bad it's -- fill in the blank. carter, you're going to start off with verizon it does look bad. >> it does what we've got is a ten-year chart. just the thing that catches my high, how far below trend the

way i do i'm thinking this is so bad that it'sg good for some sort of bounds. >> tim >> i'm done on verizon i have at&t. i do think people looking at yield in these stocks, you were look at total return it's not been so good. i think the wireless has become less predatory i think they have shipped off some awful media components. and this is a stock that's gong all the way back to the covid low, and then some my thinking is we have to give this a green arrow to an oy at a time the one that's already there. here too it's not whether it's cheaper or expensive, but you're due for some sort of bounce. >> i think that's pretty impressive when you go back to the covid low and see how the

stock actually reacted in a world where all of us know nothing -- individually we know nothing, and collectively we are the market that's why -- you alone cannot decide where the market is going, is what i meant to say. we individually can't push a market up our done, but when you see a chart like this that stops on today dime, i think it's worth a head nod. >> miracle-gro, will it see green? >> well formed at the top, going back to a ten-year trend, crashing through, was this because of marijuana stocks? who knows, i think you have to give it the green arrow. play for a bounce. >> another one, so bad it's good so bad it's good >> no. i've listen to the ceo speak

from scotts the last couple months, they were more on the up side and here's the last one. sink your teeth into this last pick, carter. >> so, as opposed to something that was strong, that's not what this is. this is something that's just unrelevining that's not so bad it's good. that's just so bad it's bad. stay away, don't do it resist any temptation. i've never had one, i wouldn't eat it, either we need to turn to the registered dietitian on this one. >> at your service i think the trends in alternative meats have changed the competitive backdrop has definitely changed the partnerships they were tried to insert in the fast-foot, predominantly mcdonald's, et cetera, really haven't caught on i'm with carter here, so bad it's worse >> so bad it's bad

can you imagine the day when everything is going to want plant meat >> not a darling here. this is one of these vindication stocks that, to me is a function of, it never deserved a multiple and the dinamics here for this environment, for this stock, i they it goes lower. upex falras. nt,in tde

time for the finals trade. around the horn. tim? >> i think the rotation back into coomer staples is alive and well kimmerly clark, i think a lot gets better for them. >> i'd be hiding the options trade earlier. >> first of all so nice to have carder he brings not only class, but this giant keyboard with him, a laptop -- >> i have all sorts of gear. >> final trade, look, the market four months later is only down from the where it was in june. we're not oversold sell >> don't be embarrassed of your keyboard. >> i struggle to find a final

trade here take that with a grain of salt i think the market goes 5% to 7% lower before we do the rip after midterm election starbucks just based on technical. we'll see you back here tomorrow meantime, don't go anywhere. "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now my mission is simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there is always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends, just trying to make you some money my job is not just to entertain but educate and teach you so-call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer. worries about competition, hig