Skip to main content

tv   Worldwide Exchange  CNBC  October 13, 2022 5:00am-6:00am EDT

5:00 am
it is 5:00 a.m. at cousins global headquarters. here's your top five at five investors bracing for today's september inflation reports and what it could mean for fed policy and fed chairman jay powell and that playbook in washington, d.c., the white house scrambling to contain the unexpected fallout from its decision to curb china trade with chips now another company is issuing a warning to shareholders. opec is firing back yet again over allegations it's siding with russia amid its
5:01 am
latest output cut, as crude bubbles back to near 90 bucks a barrel. and call it the bank of he can land blame game. new comments this morning over what has been seen as a true failure of fiscal policy and later on, the activists are not done yet with one struggling retail chain it's thursday, october 13, 2022. you're watching "worldwide exchange" right here on cnbc good morning i'm dominic chu in for brian sullivan let's kick off your thursday morning with u.s. equity futures as the s&p looks to avoid a seven-session losing streak and bounce off its lowest close since november of 2020 futures right now indicating some modest gains at the opening bell akin to what we saw, remember, in yesterday's session where things were generally positive the dow implied higher by
5:02 am
roughly 140 points the s&p higher by 15 and 23 for the nasdaq a little more newted for the nasdaq as opposed to this time 24 hours ago we saw green yesterday at certain points that turned into modest red by the time the closing bell happened. the bond market, yields very much in focus as the ten-year drifts a little back towards that 4% level. currently we are seeing the ten-year benchmark treasury note yield, 3.91% the two-year note yield, 3.14% and the 30-year long bond, 3.89% currently in today's trade in the oil market, crude oil prices took a dip yesterday on some of those big economic concerns right now we're seeing a bit of a bounce back. u.s. benchmark, wti crude, up about 66 cents, 0.75% advance there. similar advance for ice brent crude. and with cryptocurrencies, bitcoin and ether prices still
5:03 am
watching what's happening with that $19,000 to $20,000 range. we're seeing red across the board. bitcoin down, 19,010 eth ethereum, down 1.5% as well. all of this is happening ahead of today's big inflation report. economists are expecting consumer price gains to have slowed slightly last month from 8.3% year-on-year to just a little over 8% now it's still very bad. we'll speak with former atlanta fed president dennis lockhart about what today's report could mean for powell rate hike strategy and playbook. first, a check on the overnight action in asia mostly red with hong kong and south korea falling more than 1% the hang seng in hong kong down nearly 2%. trade is getting started and kind of going in europe right now. we're in the early hours of it right now.
5:04 am
german cpi data out this morning. up 10% year-on-year. the highest in 70 years. as we spin over to europe, it's speckled mostly green but fractional gains and losses. the german dax up, the ftse 100 and uk up and the cac in france up. the europe blame game shaping up after last week's fiscal policy breakdown and central bank action. julianna tatelbaum is standing by in our london newsroom with more >> good morning. the volatility in uk bond markets continues. the bank of england ramped up as pensions have until friday to rebalance positions. daily purchases came to 4.4 billion pounds bringing total buys since they expanded
5:05 am
intervention to include bonds on tuesday to nearly 8 billion pounds, more than the first nine days' worth combined our sister channel sky news asked the chancellor on the fiscal side what would happen on friday when the bank of he can land as gilt buying program ends >> tell me, what happens after friday what happens after friday when the bank of he can land stop buying bonds >> that's it for the governor. i won't comment until that. >> as you can see there, there is a bit of a blame game happening now. the bank of england forced to react to the market fallout from the uk government's fiscal plans. in particular, those unfunded tax cuts >> all right, julianna tatelbaum, i wonder, though, with quasi quartang, similar to
5:06 am
janet yellen, this is the political side of the argument with andrew bailey being more like what happens with our jay powell over here what is that dynamic like right now? we talk about very much the independence that fed chair jay powell operates with on this side of the atlantic how much will politics play into this conversation with regard to what's going to happen if we don't see some kind of stability happen after this move of england to bat its emergency proceedings? >> at the moment the bank of england maintains its independence but they are being forced to put policies into play as we heard from economic organizations aren't the world, it's difficult to have fiscal policy and monetary policy working against each other on the fiscal side they are trying to focus on growth.
5:07 am
growth, groat, growth, that's what the uk government is about but on the monetary side, the bank of england is trying to monitor inflation. you are seeing fiscal and monetary policy act out of step with each other and that's why we're in such a difficult position right now. >> julianna tatelbaum live in london with the latest back home, investors are grappling with the uk policy crisis and what it could mean for markets stateside. brian sullivan spoke with one pension manager in charge of more than $300 billion brian? >> dom, thank you very much. good morning we're pleased to be joined by christopher alleman, the cio of calsters an incrediblyimportant -- it's great to have you on this is an incredibly important time, given what's going on in the equity and bond markets here but uk and globally as well. welcome very much.
5:08 am
i want to start with what's happening in the uk. their market and some of the way they invest are not exactly the same as ours do you fear any kind of a spillover or contagion risk from what's happening there to hit the u.s. bond and/or stock or debt markets >> well, brian, it's hard to predict policy errors, especially catastrophic ones i'm not fearful we'll have a carryover. we did look at the immediate impact and the secondary and even tertiary. we learned that after '08. when people use leverage, it cuts both ways these liability-driven investments they used were leveraged bonds. so, when that market moved so rapidly, as well as the deadline, it did cause some forced sales when you got to come up with clal right away, liquidity just disappears it wasn't just the firsthand
5:09 am
effect but the secondhand. we think the banks will weather this they're in much better shape than they were before. i don't think it's going to carry over into the usa or our other locations. you just never know in this environment. what other shoe is going to drop >> i'm going to get to that shoe in just a second but i want to go back to your answer do you think there was a catastrophic policy mistake here >> well, i think a very significant one. maybe want catastrophic, but, you know, any time the government has to do an absolute u-turn the next day, and i guess they didn't want to use that phrase, but liability-driven investing is fine, and it works, except when you have rapidly rising interest rates and then your currency falls apart. and those two things happen within a two-day period because of comments from the central bank and comments from the government so, you know, policymakers
5:10 am
created a firestorm that really hit the uk pensions. therefore, causes them any time you have to raise liquidity fast, then prices are going to suffer all around the place. and it's hard to sell private assets it's hard to raise money when you suddenly have to. >> we go back to the contagion risk again, i haven't had anybody like yourself that has said, yeah, it's definitely contagion. likely no, but we don't know what's under the hood. and i was -- we go back to these acronyms from 2008 clo, cdos, collateralized loan obligations. i saw a story that some of the clos in london were getting hit because they have requirements about how much certain things can be debt and when things get downgraded, things have to be forcibly sold. isn't that the kind of potential black swan that nobody really thinks about, which is, we don't
5:11 am
know what people hold and we don't know what they're not allowed to hold. if we see a lot of debt rating downgrades, either there, europe or maybe here, there seems like there's -- maybe tiny, but some trigger risk, i would imagine. it's not zero. >> it's not zero, brian. but i think the risk of an '08 is literally down in the 4%, 5% range. it's a very low likelihood '08 was one in 70-year event doesn't mean it can't happen again but i think they put safeguards in place. any time in history you have rapidly rising interest rates, and let's remember the u.s. fed raising by 0.75 of a point, that's huge. historically we were always 0.25 and 0.50 was big now you've had multiple 0.75 rises where the level is up to 4% it's going to squeeze any kind of leverage. anybody that borrowed short is squeezed on that
5:12 am
whenever you have to raise collateral quickly, then you get distressed pricing and that lowers the value of everything so, i think the bank says pass the stress test. those are important regulations to keep u.s. and european banks in better shape. it doesn't mean we might not have trouble, but i think we're in for a long, tough recession i don't know if i agree with jamie dimon and another 20% drop but 10% here in the u.s. because i think earnings are going to come down. we're seeing that starting this week >> you think the market is still, even though multiples have come down a little bit, the e in pe has come down. it sounds like you expect it to come down even more so it sounds like you think multiples need to come down more. >> in terms of the s&p 500, i think there is a risk we could test the lows of 3250. we may bounce, and we've held 3500, so we'll see but we've got three weeks of
5:13 am
earnings coming. that's a long reporting period and the words, the forward outlook of the ceos is going to be important because they've actually been a lot more negative >> yeah. and we're going to wait and see. obviously, some -- i don't think i've ever heard you, chris, in our 15 years of interviewing say you think we could fall another 10%. scary stuff there. quickly bl i let you go, you guys have been leaders and pioneers in many ways in esg investing. lately there's been this esg bac backlash, the treasurer of south carolina is pulling money from blackrock. what do you make of this almost partisan fight when it comes to pension funds on this topic? >> yeah, it's disheartening, brian, to me because i view the es&g, while the initials have certainly become political fire, they're just long-term business risks and it's focusing in, i
5:14 am
want companies to make money over 10 to 20 to 30 years, not just over the next 90 days i think these are people, natural reactions to what's going to be a huge change in the next 20 years as we really have to dramatically change our energy resources and how we get energy and that means there will be some winners and losers. unfortunately in this environment, the usa, you see extreme rhetoric i think smarter people will look at this from a long-term perspective and recognize this is a mega trend that's going to take place you're going to have stronger storms, more abhorrent weather as well as the need to change our energy resources over the next 20 years. so, it's not just overnight and it's not just a change, but i'm sorry that it's getting caught up in a political fight. pensions are trust funds and you attack them from a fiduciary
5:15 am
standpoint. >> our thoonks brian sullivan and christopher ailman. let's get to a top story, the fallout from the opec meeting. >> good morning. well, saudi arabia is pushing back on allegations opec plus sided with russia during last week's decision to slash oil output the saudi government saying the move was in no way influenced by its stance on russia's invasion of ukraine, despite claims from the white house. the saudi response coming as the biden administration is reportedly growing concerned that its plan to cap russian oil prices could cause prices to spike. according to the report, the proposal remains the best choice among bad options to curb oil's revenues even if its implementation would cause more retaliation and supply line disruptions.
5:16 am
when we come back on the show, a preview of today's inflation report and what it could mean for pow 's policy playbook dennis lockhart is here to weigh in on the conversation plus, new concerns over china's chip problem as the u.s. moves to cut it off from key cutting-edge technology. the stock is getting hit in the fallout ahead. later on, a major hurdle cleared for former president trump's truth social sending that stock higher. "worldwide exchange" returns after this commercial break.
5:17 am
5:18 am
5:19 am
welcome back to a developing story and one we've been following all week long. the biden administration reportedly scrambling to tackle unintended consequences of its new export restrictions on advanced computer chip technology to china. ones that could inadvertently harm the entire semiconductor supply chain to help ease concerns, south korea ski reportedly says it got approval to keep receiving goods for its factories in china without an additional license, while taiwan semiconductor, tmc, and samsung have each secured a one-year license for their facilities but the shocks keep coming "the wall street journal" reporting, u.s. suppliers, including kla corporation and lam research are halting operations and pulling staff out from china's top memory chipmaker, wmtc. kla, lam and amat, applied
5:20 am
materials, earn about 0% of their revenue from that greater china region check out shares of that so-called applied materials trade we mentioned the chipmaker warning revenues will miss forecasts for this quarter and next as well because of the new export rules that went into effect this week that's a lot to digest let's talk more about this with ben harberg, from venture capital company based in beijing, china ben, we know there would be ripple effects but now this could have a very damaging effect on this industry, one we have put so much focus on, even with our c.h.i.p.s. act here in the u.s. what exactly is the current state of play in your mind for whether or not these computer chip companies can keep operating the way they do or may have to change their entire business paradigm? >> if truly they are cut off from accessing the china market indefinitely, as you said,
5:21 am
really the only salve provided for them was this one-year respite as well as some cost offsets, r&d offsets that could come out of the c.h.i.p.s. act, they will be indefinitely damaged. their revenues will be indefinitely restricted. there is no light at the end of the tunnel because there is no other market like china that's growing at the pace it is in terms of absorbing u.s. chips at the volume it is regardless of whether they're able to offset things in the short term, this is damage their revenue in the long term. >> for china and the u.s., and some have called this iteration, this general's cold war, so to speak, the next big enemy, we have been in a technological battle back and forth between china and the u.s. for quite some time.
5:22 am
all you have to do is look at the market and the, i guess, the industry for super computing every single year to two to three, they jockey back and forth between which country, the u.s. or china, has the fastest or biggest bank of super computers and the chips needed to power them are key. is this the right move, in your mind, by the u.s. government if this is a technological war against china? >> i think it's not. i think it can provide a short-term comfort, in this case, america can extend its lead, which it has maintained for the last several decades ahead of china in terms of sturp computing capabilities and advanced technologies, but in the long term, this cannot hold china back if anything, by forcing companies to choose markets by restricting the r&d budgets of american companies, by forcing american nationals working for chinese chip companies to
5:23 am
renounce their citizenship and return back to either chinese nationals or pick a third-party citizenship in order to avoid these sanctions, we're damaging our growth potential as a market and disconnecting ourselves from the one other market that could really match us in terms of growth and consumption in the long term and we'll be left with a much smaller world to trade and operate. >> the reason why the -- i mean, this seems to be bipartisan in tone and nature, right the same kind of thing we're trying to achieve here is the same kind of thing the trump administration tried to achieve with its rules with china. the biden administration is kind of following through on some of those themes and broader macro issues as well is this a situation now where the u.s. is trying to, in essence, curb china's growth in a certain area because it could become a national security threat you mentioned the long term.
5:24 am
the long term here could also be a national security concern, could it not >> there's absolutely a national concern here it's been well articulated historically, in regard to the last administration protecting ip, protecting theft and trade secrets. these are clearly defined to slow china's rise. and the chinese will have no choice but to take actions as well and china, as you know, is a massive exporter of technology today into the united states across all layers of our tech stack. they will be forced to take recollect row active action as well, and likewise, we will see this accelerating splintering and decoupling of the two markets. in the long term, this will damage the upside potential of
5:25 am
the american chip industry and it will damage our capability to find new markets for our innovations and technologies. >> we've been showing all of our viewers and listeners on sirius/xm, we'll showing a lot of chip charts are you optimistic chips can still be invested in, given the massive selloff we've seen >> i think it's going to be a challenging investment i don't see where the growth will come from for these businesses they'll be able to avoid some sanctions for the next year but europe won't be able to absorb these. america won't be able to absorb them ultimately the markets will struggle to find, and these companies will struggle to find new growth potential for their chips. >> ben harburg in beijing, thank you. the latest installment of "rising risk," we look at coastal communities and how major storms like hurricane ian like we just witnessed are
5:26 am
making things worse. you need a bed that's smart enough for both of you. the sleep number 360 smart bed senses your movements and automatically adjusts to help keep you both effortlessly comfortable. our smart sleepers get 28 minutes more restful sleep per night. and now, the queen sleep number 360 c2 smart bed is only $999. only for a limited time.
5:27 am
♪ icy hot pro. ♪ ice works fast... to freeze your pain and your doubt. ♪ heat makes it last. so you'll never sit this one out. icy hot pro with 2 max-strength pain relievers.
5:28 am
as we head to break, check out what's happening with u.s. futures. the dow is implied higher by 16 points the s&p higher by 19 remember, we saw this yesterday. only to see marginal losses at the closing bell. throughout hispanic heritage month, cnbc is celebrating teammates, contributors, business leaders, you are on own colleagues here. here is ulta beauty board
5:29 am
member >> latin thats are bringing even more energy to our country they're the fastest growing segment and the fuel for growth in nearly every industry you can think of we're not slowing down so, it's important for you to think about, how am i unlocking the power of this very important and significant community? being a latina, everything about you is an absolute gift. it's a competitive advantage never hold back from being who you are and offering the perspective that has shaped you your entire life that'sheeacoetiv advantage.e dad, we got this. we got this. we got this. we got this. we got this.
5:30 am
yay! we got this. we got this! life is for living. we got this! let's partner for all of it. edward jones
5:31 am
millions have made the switch from the big three to the best kept secret in wireless: xfinity mobile. let's partner for all of it. that means millions are saving hundreds a year with the fastest mobile service. and now, introducing, the best price for two lines of unlimited. just $30 per line. there are millions of happy campers out there. and this is the perfect time to join them... see how easy it is to save hundreds a year on your wireless bill over t-mobile, verizon, and at&t. talk to our switch squad at your local xfinity store today.
5:32 am
welcome back to "worldwide exchange." i am dominic chu in for brian sullivan let's get right to the markets this thursday morning ahead of that big consumer price index report futures pointing towards modest gains at the opening bell. the dow implied higher by 177 points the s&p higher by 21 and the nasdaq higher by 44. turning to the bond market, yields ticking higher heading back towards the 4% level for the ten-year benchmark treasury note now a hair below 3.9%. 3.1% for the two-year note
5:33 am
yield. bulls facing renewed pressure from one activist investor calling for a change to the board. mechanic kellen advisers which has roughly 4% stake in kohl's is calling on three long-serving board heads, including the chairman they held unsuccessful talks with kohl's over the past few months on an agreement on potential board changes and has told the retailer it will run another proxy fight next year if no agreement is reached. shares are up 2% into the premarket. shortages of adderal is expected to run into next year it may not be until march when shortages ease compared to the two or three months the company suggested last week.
5:34 am
they have been in short supply since august with demand at an all-time high. apple workers in oklahoma are set to begin a vote later today on whether to unionize if the measure passes, it would mark the tech giant's second unionized location in the u.s. meanwhile, amazon workers at the company's warehouse in albany will continue their voting today on whether that location should unionize that voting process is expected to wrap up early next week. >> thank you for those headlines. investors bracing for the latest read on consumer prices with the latest cpi report due out at 8:30 eastern time expectations are for the reading to remain red hot with a jump of 8% in september from a year ago. if you strip out food and energy that is expected to rise 6.5%, still an uptick from the previous month that seen as a linchpin for the fed and rate hike strategy, speaking last night, federal reserve governor michelle bowman
5:35 am
saying she continues to favor large increases in interest rates to tamp down inflation for more on the cpi reading and the fed, let's bring in dennis lockhart, former fed president this is a very aggressive rate hike campaign the fed his on. tell us in your mind, is there anything that can happen with today's cpi print that will change the fed's planned trajectory for rates. >> i doubt it. i really doubt it. first, i doubt that the inflation numbers we see today will be a big departure from what we've been experiencing i don't think there will be a breakout to the lower inflation or a breakout to significantly higher inflation even if there were, it's essentially one month's data and i think the fed is pretty
5:36 am
committed to the rate path they're on they want to get to a situation where they can pause and see a whole series of improvements in the inflation picture. that's not likely, you know, to be on -- based on one month alone. >> dennis, if that's the case, if you look at the data and you're telling us they're going to wait and see when they can kind of take that pause to assess what kind of implications there will, there's always this conventional wisdom that rate hikes act with a lag, right? it could be 6, 12shgs 18, maybe even more months before we see the real effects of that one rate rise play in. at that point, then, when can the fed pause to say, hey, let's take a look and see if this stuff is actually working or not? >> as i see it now, i think the
5:37 am
pause would come conceivably in the first half of next year, early next year. i think they'll carry through with what we saw in the september summary of economic projections with maybe 100 to 125 more rate hikes between now and year end so, aggressive moves at both, although they could dial back in december maybe one more early in the year and then it would seem to me t that, depending on the data, they would be in a position to pause and sort of see how the medicine actually performs >> there's been a lot of talk about this, dennis, about this idea that the u.s. economy is trying to navigate a very, very narrow path towards what people call a soft landing. that is to say, an economy that doesn't go deeply into recession but can still cool things off a bit. do you think there is a risk now that the fed policy that's been
5:38 am
embarked on is a policy misstep, that we've gone too far, too fast, and we could be doomed towards a hard landing or worse in this economy? >> i think you have to include that scenario in a range of scenarios includes a softish landing, to use jay powell's term, but also this is not an exacting science it's want a policy setting in these circumstances is not something you can just nail perfectly. and they're very definitely is a risk that they could oversteer >> so, this is also a big deal for sure because in that economic context, the fed's dual mandate involves both employment or unemployment as well as price stability. price stability is arguably the biggest concern right now. if you look at the overall picture, as a former central banker who made policy decisions, if you had to choose,
5:39 am
if you had to, between the jobs picture and the inflation picture, is there a reason why the fed should treat one more importantly significantly than the other? >> yeah, a long-standing debate even within the fmoc room as to whether the two objectives of the dual mandate are, in all circumstances, actually equal. clearly, inflation, if allowed to seep into the economy and become persistent with expectations feeding it is an insidious kind of economic development that you just can't let happen so, not only are they putting a priority at this moment on inflation, i think they will do what they have to do to make sure that we're not in an inflationary era for the next
5:40 am
decade or more >> and we ask the question right now because, dennis, there's a big debate on main street right now about whether or not job are more important than inflation or vice versa. so, this is certainly something a lot of folks in america, no matter what kind of spectrum they're on will watch. thank you. we expect to talk to you soon. coming up on the show, how rising seas are leading to devastation for coastal community tax bases. it's a revenue problem. as we head to break, a check on some of this morning's big money movers shares of toshiba jumping in japan onnec consortium is given a second round in an auction for the electronics giant. victoria's secret is on the rise after the retailer says it expects third quarter profits to be closer to the higher end of
5:41 am
its previous forecast. they say sales are projected to fall in the high single digits as previously expected, signaling consumers continue to spend less on lynningerie and oe types of clothing. the spac planning to take former president's donald trump social media public truth social has been placed in the google app store after it agreed to follow content guidelines it's been available in apple app store since february digital acquisition up 10% go. go emerson software. go science people. go breakthrough meds and safe science. go space age welds for super silent cars. go big. or go home. from software that delivers new cures at warp speed, to technology that makes clean energy reliable,
5:42 am
emerson innovation helps make the world healthier, safer, smarter and more sustainable. go boldly. emerson. - [narrator] if your business kept on employees through the pandemic, go boldly. getrefunds.com can qualify you for a payroll tax refund of up to $26,000 per employee, even if you got ppp. and all it takes is eight minutes to find out. then we'll work with you to fill out your forms and submit the application. that easy. getrefunds.com has helped businesses like yours claim over $1 billion in payroll tax refunds. but it's only available for a limited time. go to getrefunds.com powered by innovation refunds.
5:43 am
mornings are our time, and i couldn't let stiff joints slow me down. so i started taking osteo bi-flex every day because it has joint shield... ...clinically shown to improve joint comfort within 7 days. osteo bi-flex - available at your local retailer and club. nurse mariyam sabo knows a moment this pure demands a lotion this pure.
5:44 am
gold bond pure moisture lotion 24-hour hydration no parabens, dyes, or fragrances gold bond champion your skin welcome back to "worldwide exchange." the clean-up continues in florida after hurricane ian and eventually will be will be a massive reconstruction effort. some residents may not return. that could mean big losses for the local tax base something that has already happened in other disaster-stricken areas. our own diana olick looks at the potential future losses in her continuing series on the rising risks from climate change. ♪ >> reporter: the destruction from hurricane ian was so profound that some home and business owners say they won't rebuild. they won't return. >> we don't even know if we're going to be able to rebuild. >> we've lost everything. >> reporter: that could mean a
5:45 am
huge hit to the local property tax base when it needs revenue most researchers at climate central looked at hardest hit lee county, florida, which includes sanibel island and found while only a quarter of the community was below the storm tide, it represents half of the tax land value. the tax value associated with ian properties could be at least $314 million >> in florida, they give us a picture of what the future will look like. >> reporter: on a national level, climate central looked not only at storm surge but sea level rise and found by 2050 within the span of a 30-year mortgage, close to 650,000 properties are projected to be at least partially submerged at high tide. they represent over $35 billion in current tax assessment value. >> the first impression i had was, my lord, we're set up to
5:46 am
lose by 2050, which is not that far away, an area almost the size of new jersey. >> reporter: by the end of the century, that rises to more than 1 million properties with assessed values of more than $110 billion. >> a potential loss of a home, of course, is devastating to a homeowner, but it's also a problem for our local communities because we run our local government, especially our schools, off of property taxes >> reporter: something e. lawrence white had to contend with in new jersey after hurricane sandy. he became mayor there in 2019. >> our assessment right before sandy was 1.6 billion, with a b. instantly sandy came in late october and the damage was obviously horrific and our assessment went down approximately 30% to 33%.
5:47 am
>> reporter: they rebuilt using government grants but it may be on borrowed time. >> if there were to be another one here, i think a lot of people would leave and not come back >> we've all seen the pictures from florida but we're also seeing homes fall into the ocean in north carolina. no storm, just high tide sea levels are projected to rise by a foot in the next 30 years, about as much as they did in the past century and all that tax revenue could be lost right when it's needed most, to build protections like sea walls or flood gates. >> so, it seems like government keeps coming in and funding all of these reconstruction efforts on the coasts, like even here in the northeast after hurricane sandy. i was a part of that we saw some damage to our area where i live where people just put up fancier houses instead how does that actually hurt the
5:48 am
tax base if they're just getting replaced by higher taxed real estate >> it brings that tax base up or are they just pushing it down the road inevitably we know there will be more storms and they'll just get destroyed again. you heard the mayor in new jersey say, people won't come back, a higher tax base, more money to lose. you already have climate migration, that is people moving off the coasts the more you rebuild in these very dangerous areas, the more trouble you'll have, the more expense you'll have down the road. >> it's a huge deal for sure on the real estate side of things diana olick, we appreciate it. on deck for the show, investors gearing up for the critical cpi report set to release in just over two hours steve wieting lays out why the ma ts response could do real dageo the markets, more than it's already done. we'll be right bac
5:49 am
here, is cvs health. here, we'll never be told our concerns are all in our head. here, we don't think we should pay more than men for the same thing. or pay taxes for period products. here, we can ask tough questions, day... ...or night. and here, we're actually heard. and because of that, we can focus on getting healthier... together. together. together. here, healthier happens together. cvs health.
5:50 am
5:51 am
5:52 am
pivot. >> so, steven, we spoke with former atlanta fed president dennis lockhart just earlier in the show, and he expects the fed
5:53 am
to maybe be able to take a pause in the first half of next year to assess what's happened. this is, no doubt, been one of the most aggressive interest rate hiking campaigns, if you will, since going back to the volcker days what kind of damage could be done to this economy it could be severe, could it not? >> i would view the outlook as having 2 million job losses for the u.s. the unemployment rate rising above 5% over the course of next year, even if the federal reserve were to limit additional rate hikes think about what's happened. mortgage purchase applications volume are off 50% home sales have fallen 35% housing job losses have been zero the pace of construction right now is really where we were when the sales pace was higher and mortgage rates were lower. now, that's one micro example
5:54 am
just to understand that it takes time it's planning a house, building a house is 12 months this is one we easily understand the fact there are very strong impacts on trade, which is impacting, again, marketing, sales, finance positions throughout the economy, this takes time in the past, it has and it's going to right now it might happen a little faster. when i said, by the way, when the fed pivots, when ultimately they react to job losses, that doesn't mean that the economy has stopped falling and then some reaction to that is still there for many sensitive asset prices many, again, industrial and materials, these types of companies, these types of sectors, again, just the fact that the fed will not tighten further at some point is not going to mean they won't react to further deterioration of the economy for a time >> so, if that's the case, steven, the way that investors or traders, i mean, there's a
5:55 am
distinction between the two for sure, based upon tactical and strategic moves with money, how exactly, then, are you advising clients to position given that economic outlook that could be the better part of next year in that negative zone >> well, look, markets have never bottomed when we haven't even begun a recession if a recession is coming, if it's a false warning, we would love that, but when we actually have a recession, markets don't bottom before the recession even begins but all this market timing, all of these things sort of ignores the long-term value staying invested and the most invadetive parts of the economy that ultimately drive long-term economic growth. for the meantime, you can swerve portfolios to durable sources of income we love the fact we can put money to work in one to three-year u.s. fixed income markets and now get yields ranging from 4% to 7% across a
5:56 am
wide range of different risk categories, all investment grade. we have put a massive amount into u.s. bonds, about a 12 percentage point of portfolios while stig only having a very small global overweight income avoiding europe and japan. and international markets where the dollar has soared, we've stayed underweight these international equities swerving to pharmaceuticals, to staples, to companies that have the most durable dividends this is just a defensive tilt in portfolios, but this is not to say that markets haven't already anticipated a significant downturn i think the large part is over. >> what do we think about technology it's let out of the previous -- i don't know how many recessions what happens to the tech trade >> i'd just be careful of that, again. the earnings hits to some technology areas will come, too. that will also impact those
5:57 am
companies. the idea the only problem markets have is higher rates, which has impacted growth stocks more, i think it will be economic weakness. and it will probably be those less economic sensitive technology companies that will bottom earlier that will, i think, likely come next year. >> steve wieting, great to get your thoughts, sir we'll talk to you soon. that does it for us on "worldwide exchange. markets are implied higher by 150 points "squawk box" picks up the report next hey dad, i'm almost out. i got you. any questions, chris? all good, thanks maura! there you go, one new inhaler! nice did you get my refill too? maybe [door bell] here you go, sir. you're a lifesaver. have a nice day. healthier is managing all your family's prescriptions in one app. cvs pharmacy. healthier happens together
5:58 am
pst. girl. you can do better. at least with your big-name wireless carrier. prescriptions in one app. with xfinity mobile you can get unlimited for $30 per month on the nation's most reliable 5g network. they can even save you hundreds a year on your wireless bill over t-mobile, at&t, and verizon. wow. i can do better! yes you can! i can do better, too! see how easy it is to save hundreds a year on your wireless bill over t-mobile, verizon, and at&t. talk to our switch squad at your local xfinity store today.
5:59 am
good morning investors, literally, we all are, crazy for september's inflation report, cpi. the s&p has plunged 12% since the last one that came in hotter than
6:00 am
expected and we had really doubled the ppi expectations yesterday but the market's up somehow. earnings season is also ramping up we'll hear from blackrock, delta air lines and walgreens today. we'll get you ready for tomorrow's bank earnings blitz plus, fallout from the u.s. government's chip bank earnings blitz. plus the kip crack down on china. thursday october 13, 2022 and squawk box begins right now. good morning everybody. welcome to squawk box here on cnbc live from the nasdaq market site in time square. i'm beck

67 Views

info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on