it is certainly something that we will have to explore if and when we actually get an announcement of course, we'll see if we even get that tomorrow morning. kroger of course the larger of the two. that'll do it for us for me on "squawk on the street." "techcheck" starts now good thursday morning and welcome to "techcheck. today stocks are falling fast off the cpi print although off the lows as we've said inflation running hotter than expected nasdaq down less than 2% now we'll watch it the white house council of economic advisers chair is going to join us this hour break some of that down. we'll also turn to hardware. consumers and businesses cutting back and we'll take a closer look at the impact for apple in particular finally, we'll speak with the air b & b cfo on the picture for travel demand and how inflation is hitting that sector very busy day and busy hour.

but first mike santoli is going to join us to break down cpi the impact today on stocks, volume, vix. there is a lot to watch here. >> a lot of stuff was already moving pretty hard in one direction. we got an accelerant at the open how do you make a 1.5% drop in the nasdaq feel okay start with the 3% drop in the nasdaq, basically where we are we are down enough you have to look at a longer-term chart to situate us in terms of where we are and how far back in time we have here you go. that is the pre-covid high in the nasdaq 100 it is around 9600 between 96 and 9700 down a thousand points from here you know what? we went down a thousand points in the last 10 or so trading days in the nasdaq 100 you are kind of in the zone there of going back to the pre-covid levels of course a ton of stocks, maybe half of all stocks are below pre-covid peak right there we did kind of lose out on some of those other areas i was looking at more like in the two-year round-trip range that would have brought us back to sort of before the 2020

election that was a correction we had right there. apple continues to be this big story. it is kind of a sector or an asset class of its own this goes back a couple years to show from the end of 2020 i guess, this goes back to show how the equal weighted nasdaq 100, the average big growth stock in the nasdaq, and more or less in tune until the overall market peak, the nasdaq peaked and then apple became something different, a safety play now, it is threatening those lows we had from earlier this year in the 130 area we'll see if we have to get down there. but in a market where you want to look for pockets of relative strength, apple stands out also in a market where you're waiting for that last hold out of hope to give way, you're also looking for an apple maybe to break down further as a further sign that people feel like there's no safe shelter out there, which is sometimes a formula for some kind of low.

>> which is exactly why we talk about apple so often thank you so much. how do you navigate the tech sector in this environment we saw some of the historical data let's go forward with the fund founder, dan niles, telling us all year retail investors would be better off in cash and you were right even with the rate of inflation. cash has certainly preserved its value more so than the broader markets. if you have a longer time horizon now is now a good time to start nibbling especially at some of those tech names we just saw mike break down, how we are getting closer to the prepandemic peak what do you think? >> well, there is the long term and the short term in the short term i actually believe october will end up being up and the reason i say that is if you look at it historically october is up 60% of the time over the last 70 years average gain is 1% when you go into october with a market down 15% in the prior nine months, your odds of it being up go up to about 83% and

your average gain is about 3%. even if you look at so far this month, horrible ppi numbers. ugly preannouncements. and the market is down about 1% so far in october. so you're sort of setting up, even if you look at some of the action today, applied materials, you know, big negative preannouncement. stocks actually up on the day. you look at microntechnology, they cut tit from 70 cents to 10 cents for next year. fedex, right, massive preannouncement. eps down by almost 50% for the next quarter nike numbers go down over 20%. looking forward. all of those stocks are up 6% to 9% from their lows a few weeks ago. i think this is all signs that in the very, very short term, my belief, is that the market rallies. from the long-term perspective, though, in the tweet i put out this morning, the bottom i think

is still s&p 3000 which is a 15 multiple on a $200 eps unless you are willing to trade this market on a daily basis and, you know, willing to go to cash and short, you should just stay in cash because 3,000 on the s&p is still a lot lower than today >> you are essentially saying even if we see a rise in october that could be another head save like we saw in the summer. you painted some of the negative points we got but there was a little optimism in today' earnings numbers delta fuel costs down quarter over quarter i think i know what you're going to say though. this is -- you point to the fact that energy and supply chain only accounts for 10% of corporate costs. wages are worth a lot more when do we start to see that are you waiting for wages to come down to sort of any sign of a bottom >> you're exactly right. energy is about 10% of corporate costs. supply chain is another 10%.

wages is two-thirds of corporate costs. if you look at what determines wages, it is really simple how many jobs are available? how many people are unemployed if you look at that, you've got about 10.1 million job openings and about 5.8 million people unemployed you have 70% more jobs than you have people unemployed the prior record as far as we have data is about 25% more jobs you're going to need much more pressure on the employment picture to get that down to a level where you get wages under control because it is great looking at, you know, gasoline prices or used car prices and all this stuff at the end of the day the u.s. economy is 75% services based and wages is the biggest component of that. rents by the way is the other big piece of inflation, which is 30% to 40% that typically peaks out a year and change after home prices peak out and they just peaked out in march so you can expect pressure on rents through march of next

year so that's why we have a very big picture view that inflation is going to remain, it is going to come down but remain higher than everybody wants through and into next year. >> dan, first i want to point out to everybody the dow has climbed back to almost flat from that dramatically low open s&p down 0.5%. the nasdaq is still off by about a percent. what you said about october and the possibility it ends higher, what does that mean for what we should expect out of earnings season then? we'll get guidance at least from some folks for q4. the dollar has remained pretty strong how bullish are they going to have to sound in the guide despite what's happened with inventories, how much they're going to have to comment on discounting, and overall weakening consumer demand? >> they'll sound absolutely horrible, john i think that is actually what

you need as i said earlier, micron, nike, fedex, those are about as ugly forward looking numbers as you can get. applied materials last night on their negative preannouncement so to some degree this is going to be what happened already this year you had six rallies in the s&p this year that averaged 9% apiece you're not up 50% this year. right? you're down 25%. those rallies occurred for the same reason. numbers get cut. investors mistakenly think this is the bottom. they run them up thinking oh, this is a great company. let me buy nvidia or amd or tesla. pick your favorite rate company. i'm not arguing they aren't great companies. but the problem is the numbers have to keep coming down they rally a couple months june to august if you remember, the s&p was up 17% and now you've given it all back because numbers continued to come lower so that is all we're saying is

bear market rallies and we have in on our site where we went back and analyzed them they happen all the time right you had five rallies between 18 to 21% in the s&p during the global financial crisis and during the tech bubble break on your way to losing 49 to 57% of your money so this is pretty typical. i think in some ways it is counterintuitive but the worse the guidance is the more likely the market is going to mistakenly have another bear market rally and then you'll figure out the numbers are still too high when we get to the end of the fourth quarter and we'll be back in the soup again. i think that is how you want to think about this. >> right dan, as we pay attention, before cpi this morning the discussion was a lot, largely about uk and their u-turn if we get that. if there is a dramatic stability event, even if we're not quite back to 3k yet is that when you start jumping in more aggressively i think back to the depths of

covid when disney shut the parks and that's when you got long. >> you have a great memory, carl yeah yes. actually the first thing i look at when i wake up in the morning is typically where credit default swaps are on credit swees, deutsche bank, what the ten-year is doing in the uk not the u.s. and those are the things i sort of look at because i do -- the tail risk in my mind is another lehman type moment which is i firmly believe you're going to get some kind of big financial institution in big trouble. i don't think it's going to be one of the big banks but i could see another archigos type situation because so many hedge funds, 60-40 funds, parity funds, whatever you want to call them have gotten murdered on their bond positions and crushed on their stock positions i think you could see something like that. that is the tail risk. you know, there's a lot of other stuff like what's going on in the uk that i'm watching credit suisse and deutsche bank

are up this morning. so that is a pretty positive sign as well so there is the very, very short term where i think it bounces and, you know, i sent you those notes last night saying, you know, that's what we thought would happen then there is the long term and the long term is what you want to remain deadly focused on because the fed is nowhere near finished you may get short-term optimism but you want to be defensive if you're going to be in stuff. we own walmart because they were up 18% in 2008 with the market down 38. we're in health care another defensive space. the stuff that isn't defensive we're getting clobbered in but we think there is going to be a short-term rally that we're playing for. >> even before this morning cpi numbers there's been concern building among fed policy makers that the fed could over shoot. something could crack or even break. i guess is that what you're saying does that risk increase after this morning's number? the prospect that the fed can't stop doing what it is doing?

>> well, you have to remember, it's how you look at over shoot. they under shot. right? they were a year late in raising rates. they massively screwed this up so they've got to play catch up because the problem here is that inflation hits the segment of the society that can least afford it, right 35% of people don't own homes. they didn't benefit from the covid price inflation and home prices you know, 45% of people don't own stocks they didn't benefit from all that massive stimulus pumping up meme stocks and the stock market and everything else. crypto so the fed has to focus on those people and not people who can afford to invest or own their own homes and that's what they should have been focused on over a year ago so i think, you know, that's just going to keep the pressure on things for longer than what, you know, the average investor wants to believe >> a tricky market, dan. thanks so much for being with us always great to hear your insights dan niles, satori fund. >> thank you

meantime chip companies like taiwan semi cutting capital as you know amid the semi slowdown. we're watching all of that so many huge stories today >> yes, so many. let's start with the foundry of the world tsmc finally sounding a little cautious though it posted the best profit in two years and beat analysts' expectations benefiting from pricing power and of course the strong u.s. dollar taiwan semiconductors, actually the largest made-to-order chip maker and it's projecting the industry will contract in 2023 that is next year. the company is cutting capital expenditures by roughly 10%. but the weird thing is tsmc doesn't seem as worried about u.s. export restrictions that aim to hamper china's ability to make advanced chips. on the conference call which was really early this morning management said the new rules were, quote, limited and manageable then you also have silicon design firm sinopsys saying the

rules won't impact revenue and reaffirmed guidance, the stock is trading a little higher up, 1.3% right now but you have other chip makers that are sounding the alarm. equipment maker applied materials cut the forecast yesterday evening blaming the new china export rules they predict it will cut sales by $400 million in q4 give or take about a hundred million then nvidia we know about a month ago previously warned of the same $400 million impact there are also reports now companies like kla, alam, has started to pull employees from china's chip makers or like asml have told u.s. employees to stop servicing chinese customers. the export restrictions clearly hitting an industry that is already suffering a downturn john >> yeah. kristina, thanks so d, it is interesting. if you are an equipment maker that sells into china, yeah. it is going to be -- even though it is european then that is going to affect you a lot more

than if you are a chip maker and most of your oem customers and what not are in the u.s. or in europe or in other parts but if you are investing in chips you are not investing necessarily based on what is going to happen in 2023. you're investing on what is going to happen beyond that. what dan niles just said not with standing what do you think will happen three to five years from now who is going to be able to win with the fabs being built out or maintained in process technology right now? that is what investors have to think about. >> bingo if you're looking three to five years out you are looking at who is building and spending money which is why i tend to focus on the capx number out of tsmc reducing that quite a bit down to $36 billion and it begs the question what does intel do now it is already under so much more pressure than some of the other chip makers and has plans to invest a ton in manufacturing and business set it is just getting into -- what

does it mean for their investment plans we should note intel is a relative out performer in today's session. what is going on in this name? >> i think if you are intel, it is full steam ahead. look, you have a certain amount you have to spend because your case is -- intel is not going to shrink we're not shrinking our ambition we're going to do foundry and lean into process technology as well to be special and you're going to make cuts you have to make in order to finance what you view as being strategically por important for the future you don't pull back now because the chip market is going to be bad in 2023 because the fabs aren't going to be operational for three to five years anyway >> i understand what you're saying but if job cuts are really planned, how patient are investors? you're also seeing margin compression at intel did these plans, the plans in manufacturing, get scaled back in the current environment >> no.

you can't. >> how long can it hold out? >> you can't >> those fabs have to get built. if you're cutting costs operationally now so that you can afford to spend what you have to on the fabs, that is what you do. i'm not saying that's absolutely the right strategy that is for smarter people but if that is the strategy you're continuing to follow that's what you got to do. all right. we'll break down the hardware landscape. more on that with morgan stanley's eric woodring on the other side of this break "techcheck" is just getting started.

- oh, the stock market is doing that fun thing again. news from the future: you're going to live through that about 10 more times! (laughs) no stress. i just discovered yieldstreet. they vet investments that don't ride the stock market rollercoaster. - [narrator] yieldstreet: private market investing.

>> dow is up 215 nasdaq green let's check on meta. is today the day to buy the dip? bernstein is calling the stock its top pick today they say they see light at the end of the tunnel, looking for an increase in global engagement, demonstrating improvement in the revenue trajectory they do cut the target down to 195. john, pretty interesting no doubt, saying he doesn't need to prove the bull case from here for the stock to work. >> yeah. it certainly has been beaten down the bull has been gored. if it is a bull in meta. to add to what you were saying s&p also peaking above 3600. we'll see if it holds. a long day ahead let's turn down to hardware. you have enterprise demand slowing, weaker consumer what does it mean for apple, the broader pc market, broader

hardware let's take a closer look with morgan stanley's eric woodring and i want to start not with apple and pcs but with enterprise at large. i keep hearing from ceos at these companies that it is a rip and replace argument right now about who can get in there and make the company more efficient on the spending they are still going to do. all that money is not going away who is going to lose going forward and get ripped out so when a rebound happens they're not going to rebound what should investors avoid because of that? >> thanks for having me on, john right now in down turns what happens is that enterprise is typically cut, what is most easily cut it is typically more transactional businesses unfortunately like hardware. we published our three q 22 cio survey earlier this week and we learned cios continue to cut hardware budgets

they thought 2.5% year over year growth at the i think of this year right now we're looking at about 1.7% year over year growth this year and expectations are for growth to decelerate next year to 1.5% growth what is getting cut unfortunately is a litany of hardware projects, pcs, servers, storage, printing, peripherals and so again, because transactional hardware is easiest to get cut, typically my space is the one that falls under the first cuts. >> yeah. i guess pcs are easier to cut if you're not hiring as many people as you were before you hire somebody you have to have a pc for them but if you're not hiring or even cutting people that opens up some space there so how much of it is that and then what did they buy before that they're not going to buy when the budget gears up again? do you have insight into what is getting obsoleted. >> yes. >> as technology transformation continues even in the down turn? >> quickly on the pc market,

again, we have to remember before the pandemic the market globally was doing about 260 million pc shipments it peaked in 2021 around 340 million shipments. we're going through a period of digestion now. there were a lot of incremental pcs sold over the last two years. companies and consumers alike have to digest the purchases we're seeing that now. it is not just potential job cuts on the horizon. it's the fact that we've come off of a very significant, near decade peak in pc shipments. that needs to be taken into account. on your second question, again, we think of the world as being multi cloud, meaning companies will have an on premise environment. they will also have a cloud environment increasingly work loads are going to the cloud and so when we ask cios what budgets are priorities where they're gaining spend it is the traditional cloud computing, digital transformation, cyber security projects that remain top of list from a priority

perspective. unfortunately, that means that hardware products like servers, storage, pcs, are ceding some of their budget to those projects that is a challenge both term and longer term as we think about the efficiencies companies can gain from the cloud. >> eric, that is something we've been trying to figure out in terms of when do software budgets get cut, where do they get cut, what is must have versus nice to have. can you look at hardware trends and what is being cut there to figure out what might be next in terms of software? you mentioned cloud. no one is cutting there. what about some of the next generation technologies like ai? >> ai, machine learning, edge compute. they do remain kind of top of priority again these are emerging new work loads that enterprises are really still learning more about. i will mention in our cio survey, budgets did get cut across the board so for software services, networking, and

hardware software is still expected to grow the strongest of all groups meaningfully higher than hardware so there are areas where you can pick and choose in the hardware universe and still the need for compute capacity but at the end of the day the efficiencies of the cloud pose a long-term threat to hardware a number of my companies ultimately face the challenges of looking to pivot when their core traditional business has been on premise data centers >> all right eric woodring, thank you i have to call out the swing in the major indices the dow now up about 340. the nasdaq up about a percent. sorry. the s&p up about a percent the nasdaq up about half a percent. that is a big swing off the lows we were seeing after the cpi report at 8:30 before the market opened. >> to your point one of the top performers on the nasdaq 100 applied materials after that warning up about more than 4%. coming up, delta ceo says travel

is strong and the cfo of airbnb joins us next to talk about what to expect following the holiday. - oh, the stock market is doing that fun thing again. news from the future: you're going to live through that about 10 more times! (laughs) no stress. i just discovered yieldstreet. they vet investments that don't ride the stock market rollercoaster. - [narrator] yieldstreet: private market investing. and i'm going to tell you about exciting medicare advantage plans that can provide broad coverage and still may save you money on monthly premiums and prescription drugs. with original medicare you are covered for hospital stays and doctor office visits but you have to meet a deductible for each, and then you're still responsible for 20% of the

cost. next, let's look at a medicare supplement plan. as you can see, they cover the same things as original medicare, and they also cover your medicare deductibles and coinsurance. but they often have higher monthly premiums and no prescription drug coverage. now, let's take a look at humana's medicare advantage plans. with a humana medicare advantage plan, hospitals stays, doctor office visits and your original medicare deductibles are covered. and, of course, most humana medicare advantage plans include prescription drug coverage. with no copays or deductibles on tier 1 prescriptions, and zero dollars for routine vaccines, including shingles, at in-network retail pharmacies. in fact, in 2021, humana medicare advantage prescription drug plan members saved an estimated $9,600 on average on their prescription costs. most humana medicare advantage plans have coverage for vision and hearing. and dental coverage that includes

two free cleanings a year, plus dentures, crowns, fillings and more! most humana medicare advantage plans include a silver sneakers fitness program at no extra cost. you get all of this for as low as a zero-dollar monthly plan premium in many areas; and your doctor and hospital may already be a part of humana's large network. there is no obligation, so call the number on your screen right now to see if your doctor is in our network; to find out if you could save on your prescriptions, and to get our free decision guide. humana, a more human way to healthcare.

hello. here's what's happening at this hour storks and bounds are rebounding after heavy losses after higher than expected inflation last month. consumer prices up 8.2% over last year with september's increase fueled by higher costs for housing and services high inflation means bigger increases in social security

payments benefits will rise 8.7% next year the average recipient will get an extra $140 in their monthly checks starting january. dominos pizza is leading the s&p 500 with a 9% gain profits were below forecast but successful discounting helped same store restaurant sales top estimates. dominos shares are still down 6% over the last month. the british pound is surging following reports the british government is in talks to scrap parts of its controversial budget plan. british bond yields are down sharply on the news. a spokesperson for prime minister liz truss says the government's position on the tax cut plan has not changed that is the very latest. diedre, back over to you. >> thanks very much. as you mentioned cpi data hotter than expected this morning sending the market tumbling but now not only are we well off session lows but are in positive territory with the dow up more than 350 points, the nasdaq up 0.75%. one area booming apparently is travel delta's ceo joined "squawk box"

earlier this morning and said he is preparing for continued recovery >> i think the pent up demand will continue. one busy summer isn't going to quench the demand for travel we've seen our planes have been basically 90% full or more every day since the first of april that continues into the fourth quarter as well. >> airbnb's cfo and head of employee experience joins us to discuss his outlook for travel and much more. welcome to "techcheck. it is great to have you. >> thanks for having me. >> so i know you are in a quiet period but do you see some of the broader pandemic trends we've talked about a lot like longer stays and work from home, how do those play out in the current market and if we go into a recession, a deeper recession next year? >> we're just continuing to see travel changing and evolving we're seeing the long-term stays which have been an important part of our business where 20% of our nights in the second quarter, we're continuing to see those trends and seeing people travel to more places around the

world with people traveling 9,600 new cities and towns with new guests arrivals that have never had guests before. >> so that sort of mixed shift and i talked about this with brian before, the longer stays, stays to bigger homes in more rural areas, has actually led to your adr average daily rate we call it home sharing inflation rise that perhaps is a faster clip than some of the other otas out there or hotel chains. do you anticipate that to continue will those prices continue to rise or do you see them easing over the next few quarters >> what we've remembered that we have, any kind of property we have, properties where people share their homes, luxury properties and over time you can see that the increases in adrs may moderate as people can have different options for their types of stays >> okay. so moderating. have you seen any evidence of that this year >> in terms of inflation remember airbnb is incredibly

resilient in terms of any kind of economic pressures that we've had. we have any kind of property again whether small properties, people can share, to luxury homes, you know, we can do all kinds of sharing for these kind of properties. >> dave, what are higher interest rates not just in the u.s. but globally going to do to airbnb's inventory, supply, properties, also to the cost for the owners of those properties to make a profit and therefore the average daily rate the cost to those who want to take out the airbnb? do you have projections on that? this is the first kind of big interest rate spike since airbnb has been a big, global company. >> home is one of the biggest assets an individual might have and we have recently surveyed our u.s. hosts and 40% of those hosts say they use income from

airbnb to support rising prices. we continue to think people will continue to use airbnb as a source of income to help offset impact of rising prices. >> let's talk about profitability. airbnb has done what others in the sharing economy even many newly public companies are still trying to achieve you guys achieved real, actual gaap profits not adjusted ebitda, net cash of nearly $8 billion last quarter. 800 million in free cash flow. you even announced a $2 billion buyback program. what is the greater scheme here in terms of capital allocation is it time for you guys to get ambitious again? i know you guys scaled back plans and hotels throughout the pandemic how do you think of that >> well, a couple things, one is we're growing quickly. we grew revenues 58% in the second quarter and as you say we generate $2.9 billion of free

cash flow in 12 months so we're both growing quickly and generating great free cash flow and as you said net income of almost $400 million and so with that kind of growth, we had almost $10 billion of cash and did announce a $2 billion share buyback program. clearly, we are still in investment mode, still in growth mode because we can grow and grow profitably we don't necessarily need $10 billion of cash in order to support growth ambitions and are able to return some cash back to shareholders by the buyback >> how does it affect how you think about stock based compensation you are in a unique position, the cfo of the company but also the head of people experiences so you understand why the stock is down 35% this year, 50% off its peak then you also, speak to the employee side of things and you have to tell them why their equity is losing value do you shift to more cash compensation >> yeah. you know, it is important to kind of realize that as the cfo

i am about finding the return on investment and one of our biggest assets are people so actually being the head of employee experience where we are investing in our people to get the most out of their talents is incredibly important our stock is down largely in line with the broader market and we'll continue to evaluate what our compensation is so we make sure we're giving, you know, competitive compensation but part of the competitive compensation is the flexibility employees want and so what, why we announced this live and work anywhere program is we're finding employees are demanding flexibility in addition to great compensation that is what they've been telling us when we announced the live and work anywhere program we had over a million people come to our website and see our career page and learn about opportunities on airbnb. >> dave, i want to follow up on what you said in answer to my last question. >> yeah >> i want to make sure i understand you correctly. >> sure. >> it sounded like you said hosts really enjoy that revenue from their airbnbs to help them

in an inflationary environment my question had to do with interest rates for a lot of hosts their costs to maintain that property are going to go up and so therefore do you expect that to be passed along to those renting the airbnbs, do you expect that is going to affect the overall supply of airbnbs available if it is more expensive to hosts to buy or maintain a new property over and above what they have already? >> clearly we think we can continue to grow supply. we have over 6 million listings, more than we've ever had we also believe that in a recessionary environment where hosts need to use airbnb income as a way to help make ends meet we can actually increase the number of listings we have on airbnb around the world. >> dave, thanks so much for being with us today. we'll talk to you soon dave stephenson with airbnb. >> thanks for having me. >> stocks making a major turn-around today. a big rip here

dow about a thousand-point swing from the opening lows now up 460. s&p 500 after hitting 49 or 45 #91 now 3626 just in the last couple hours look at the arc innovation etf, still in the red though as growth continues to under perform. roku among the worst of the funds top five holdings. not every media name though is struggling want to tell you who is back in the green when "techcheck" comes back - oh, the stock market is doing that fun thing again. news from the future: you're going to live through that about 10 more times! (laughs) no stress. i just discovered yieldstreet. they vet investments that don't ride the stock market rollercoaster. - [narrator] yieldstreet: private market investing. thanks to avalara we can calculate sales tax

on almost anything, anywhere, automatically. avalarahhhhh. what if tax rates change? ahhhhhh. filing sales tax returns? ahhhhhh. managing exemption certificates? ahhhhhh. business license guidance? ahhhhhh. does it connect with accounting? ahhhhhh. item classification? ahhhhhh. cross-border sales? ahhhhhh. what about? ahhhhhh. ahhhhhh. do you have those budget markups? thank you. mmhm. [bubbles] - oh, the stock market is doing that fun thing again. news from the future: you're going to live through that about 10 more times! (laughs) no stress. i just discovered yieldstreet. they vet investments that don't ride the stock market rollercoaster. - [narrator] yieldstreet: private market investing.

major indices are still surging. let's get a gut check on some of the names in the green comcast upgraded to buy eun couraging investors to take a second look at broadband and cable companies the bank arging there are opportunities to sustain favorable free cash flow and monetize noncore investments. we'll see what that means comcast up 5% and citi also upped altice to buy and kept charter at neutral white house council of economic advisers chair cecelia rouse joins us after a quick break s&p 500 up more than 2%. - oh, the stock market is doing that fun thing again. news from the future: you're going to live through that about 10 more times! (laughs) no stress. i just discovered yieldstreet. they vet investments that don't ride the stock market rollercoaster. - [narrator] yieldstreet: private market investing.

and i'm going to tell you about exciting medicare advantage plans that can provide broad coverage and still may save you money on monthly premiums and prescription drugs. with original medicare you are covered for hospital stays and doctor office visits but you have to meet a deductible for each, and then you're still responsible for 20% of the cost. next, let's look at a medicare supplement plan. as you can see, they cover the same things as original medicare, and they also cover your medicare deductibles and coinsurance. but they often have higher monthly premiums and no prescription drug coverage. now, let's take a look at humana's medicare advantage plans. with a humana medicare advantage plan, hospitals stays, doctor office visits and your original medicare deductibles are covered. and, of course, most humana medicare advantage plans include prescription

drug coverage. with no copays or deductibles on tier 1 prescriptions, and zero dollars for routine vaccines, including shingles, at in-network retail pharmacies. in fact, in 2021, humana medicare advantage prescription drug plan members saved an estimated $9,600 on average on their prescription costs. most humana medicare advantage plans have coverage for vision and hearing. and dental coverage that includes two free cleanings a year, plus dentures, crowns, fillings and more! most humana medicare advantage plans include a silver sneakers fitness program at no extra cost. you get all of this for as low as a zero-dollar monthly plan premium in many areas; and your doctor and hospital may already be a part of humana's large network. there is no obligation, so call the number on your screen right now to see if your doctor is in our network; to find out if you could save on your prescriptions, and to get our free decision guide. humana, a more human way to healthcare.

- oh, the stock market is doing that fun thing again. news from the future: you're going to live through that about 10 more times! (laughs) no stress. i just discovered yieldstreet. they vet investments that don't ride the stock market rollercoaster. - [narrator] yieldstreet: private market investing. nasdaq up 1.6%, quite the turn-around. looking at m & a with evaluations going for a rollercoaster ride this morning especially who is likely to get bought out in this environment we have some ideas out with a new note listing top targets, could look to pick up from the likes of zoom, content management solutions, drop box, even hybrid cloud infrastructure, adding they see potential for companies like box and coupa to get taken out by private equity john, this has been a persistent question in the markets but buyer/seller have remained very firmly at odds

you see companies like zoom, valuation north of a hundred billion dollars less willing to get acquired for a lot less than that. >> well, yes somewhat at the same time, vista is making moves we were talking about that yesterday. bravo as well. we were saying a couple weeks ago that smaller public companies like the sub $10 billion range are getting shopped around certainly seems to be happening. well, if you want to relive the rollercoaster market don't forget to fall and subscribe for our podcast and go back in time and listen anytime anywhere eche" ll you down load podcasts. "thcckwi be back in a moment going to live through that about 10 more times! (laughs) no stress. i just discovered yieldstreet. they vet investments that don't ride the stock market rollercoaster. - [narrator] yieldstreet: private market investing.

very volatile morning for stocks after the inflation data came in hotter than expected this morning dow is up 510. dpi up 82 from a year ago hovering near the highest level since the early '80s the chair of the white house council of economic advisers cecelia rouse joining us this morning. great to have you back good morning. >> good morning. >> i wonder if you're disappointed in the print today and if you are, whether or not you think it paints maybe not as accurate a picture of how quickly the economy is evolving. >> look, what we learned today was that we have a problem with inflation. the president understands that we have understood that. what we do know is that we are not alone. around the world other countries

are also wrestling with inflation. we, however, have come at this with a position of strength. we had such strong growth last year if we look at what the federal reserve, the challenge in front of it as it tries to bring down inflation while maintaining a strong labor market and strong employment, we know we're in a position of strength so we can see that already our economy is beginning to cool yes, this print suggested that this is a challenge but we could also see that, you know, inflation coming down due to energy prices but the labor market is starting to cool in a way that opens the possibility to a soft landing. job openings are down while lay-offs have not really moved employment remains strong. it is down from the beginning of the year we know that people are starting to spend the excess savings they had during the pandemic. so we know that the economy is beginning to cool but with the strength that's there in household balance sheets and employment we think there is some optimism.

there is a possibility for the fed to nonetheless achieve a soft landing we understand inflation is a challenge. it is why the inflation reduction act has been so important. it is why the president's focused on trying to reduce costs and prices for every day families >> you know, speaking of legislation, some point back to the americanfamilies >> you know, speaking of legislation some point back to the american rescue act and say really it's the u.s. fiscal stance that has forced the fed fooplay to play so much catch up >> we had an economy just barely recovering from the pandemic we did not know how effective the new vaccines would be. part of our challenge we had the new variant of delta and also the american rescue plan you did not see. it's what generated the very robust vaccine deployment.

outs what puts us in a position for the fed to be developing inflation. we're not getting out of this pandemic without some challenge in the economy this was a profound shock to all of our economies, and then when yowl layer on russia's war against ukraine this is really just challenging economic times. but the good news is our economy is fundamentally strong such that there's a path for us to wrestle with inflation while maintaining many of the gains we've achieved over the last year or two. >> you said there's a path you said there's a chance of a soft landing that sounds mere measured tan the president lately who only allows, it seems, for the chance of a slight recession. from what we see heading into this holiday season with inventories swelling, consumer

demand and all sorts of geopolitical strife, some people are concerned about the possibility of more than a slight recession is there a possibility we're headed for more than a slight one? >> i wouldn't say it's inevitable we're going to have a hard landing so far we've seen if you look at the job opening data, we're seeing the vacancies cool in a way where just jobs are not posted but they're not laying off workers yet. we've got ui claims data today i do see it's a path obviously it's a challenge we are facing many shocks to our economy, but our economy is strong, resilient. >> cecilia, that seems to be at odds with what fed chair powell talks about, and he said earlier the fed needs to take inflation while maintaining a strong labor market, but they seem to believe you need to have some pain there to actually tame inflation do you agree

he said we're not seeing mass layoffs right now but do you think we need to see more and significant job cuts for inflation to come down >> look, i may have a higher pain tolerance than chair powell, but i think really what he's saying is he needs this economy to cool in order for us to see inflation come down, and i agree with that. our labor market has been very strong, but it needs to have robust gains that are not suggesting employers have vacancies numbers to the unemploymented we know we've got a hot labor market that needs to cool we know we've got excess savings because of the pandemic and there's space for that to be spent down we know there's additional slowing that needs to happen and what i hope and i would assume chair powell hopes as well they can achieve a soft landing without generating too

much pain on the labor market. >> finally i'm thinking back to chips act, infrastructure act, it does sort of work against the fed's goal of trying to lessen demand how do you think those two things coexist over time >> so we actually have a fiscal policy that is working in tandem with the monetary policy so, yes, we're making these long overdue investments in our economy, but we also know we're on track to reduce our deficit this year, so we're not adding stimulus to the economy. in fact, we're taking it out by increasing revenues to the treasury, by increasing -- including additional auditing, having the minimum tax for corporations, so we believe we're making the kinds of investments in our economy that actually increases economic capacity, allows us to have more economic activity without generating inflation, and we're doing it in a way that's

consistent so our fiscal policy is very consistent with the monetary policy at the moment >> certainly something we talk about here a lot the structural issues that need to be addressed as well as the near-term business cycle great to see you again >> thank you very much now, despite the rebound china based names leading the laggards on the nasdaq 100 this morning. jd.com and baidu among the worst performers tech check returns after another quick break. this is the system you built, captivating a global audience. this is how. airtable.

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deductibles. call humana now to speak to a licensed sales agent. they'll treat you like a real person whether you actually go speed walking, or not. better care begins with listening. humana, a more human way to healthcare. - oh, the stock market is doing that fun thing again. news from the future: you're going to live through that about 10 more times! (laughs) no stress. i just discovered yieldstreet. they vet investments that don't ride the stock market rollercoaster. - [narrator] yieldstreet: private market investing.

one more thing before we go. apple is diving even further into consumer finance today. announcing new plans for apple accounts through goldman sachs though no word on the exact rate just yet apple shares nearly 2% today, goldman up nearly 3% as we get into bank earnings guys, this is so opportunistic we don't know what the rate is yet but let's assume it's higher than the chase savings rate of 0.01%. as interest rates rise, as the amount of inflation rises,

savings rates have remained the same it's interesting to see apple do the switch, already making inroads into consumer finance. maybe an easier switch here offering more what they're paying you to hold your money. >> yeah, i would note that g goldman's savings accounts are above 2% i think it's interesting the shift in emphasis from fin tech from free trading to free actual dollars in the form of interest. it used to be boring and unsexy but free trading doesn't have the allure it once did overall, guys, just a remarkable turn around. 1,000 point swing on the up side from the dow vix back to 32, so a lot of things turned around, and yields

really did help this morning we're now 4444 and the ten year back at 396 and the banks tomorrow are going to add a lot of granularity to what the earnings season and macro is looking at right now. let's get to the half. carl, thank you. welcome, everybody, to the half time report. i'm scott wapner the inflation report sending stocks tumbling and then reversing. we'll debate what all that means with the investment committee. and wharton professor jeremy siegel will join us at the table. we wonder what he thinks now we'll ask him, of course joining me for the hour. also with us here on set is our senior economics reporter steve liesman. let's check the markets. we did hit fresh two yea