companies like schlumberger and i think the worst has happened with netflix, behind us. >> special thanks to brian for joining us that does it for us. we'll be back here 5:30 eastern time done go anywhere i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there is always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends, my job is to save you some money call me 800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer. there ya go, another one-day

bullish run. today's repeal down plunging 404 points, s&p plummeting 2.37% and nasdaq 2.08% a painful reminder you can't pay up for anything, anything in this market until the fed is done tightening it it's just not worth the risk i take that in oil and take up in interest rates. a slight gain in the dollar. that is a brutal gauntlet for any more keat to traverse and not only that it's counter intuitive because it is good news for inflation when oil goes down and inflation is the reason we're in a jam to begin with we're stuck in this bear market until the fed gets this economy where they want it to go a place where much lower inflation. even if it comes at the price of

much lower or no growth. you can't fight the fed, can't fight the tape, can't fight the fed and anyone who tries does get crushed even if they make some money in one day like yesterday. of course, it doesn't happen daily. sometimes you get a day where it's so obvious like yesterday too many people were betting against the market and not enough real sellers surfaced allowing us to rally like we did in thursday's session. but it did mean the sellers vanished, it meant they were taking a temporary breather. i think they gather themselves and shocked to see the market was up yesterday and came in and flooded the market. >> sell, sell, sell, sell. >> that's what happened today. oil went down a bit. dollar rallied and they unload on all stocks, especially tech that is the most sensitive to the dollar in crude oil. i told you it's counter intuitive and rates went higher and selling went more intense throughout the day it's a nightmare

you just can't build on quicksand. so we have to ask ourselves, will next week be any different? i think we need to go to the game plan with an eye and i have to tell you it is a jaundice eye to how this market doesn't have staying power because so many people want out and so few people want in knowing that bonds offer a much more counter alternative. you're still getting the 4.5 monday starts off with bank of america. if it's as good as wells fargo, maybe the financial can fill the gaping leadership. led by tech for a long time and now lower. bank of america has a gigantic base and they should be able to report a big number and it might not matter to the stock if the dollar or bonds in oil go the wrong direction. it's plain silly but the world we're in tuesday we may get one more financial that could be

interesting. goldman sachs where i used to work could be a tough one because so much of goldman's business is transaction oriented now i'm still looking for good bottom line number from goldman because the ceo has taken quick action to extend the bleeding from the decline in the capital market business and the stock is crazy cheap, maybe the cheapest i have ever seen it be now, johnson & johnson reports, too and i expect it to be much more of an intro to the post breakup johnson & johnson, the low-tech consumer product business, think band aids and high tech medical device and pharma i think the market will unlock a ton of value so we have a big position in the j&j travel trust. as i said yesterday in the club investing, which you should listen to, it remains one of my favorite stocks. after the close, we get some long awaited results from netflix where they tell us more about the cheaper ads here

it sounds like a number of commercials but i think they have enough horse sense to avoid going overboard. wednesday, we get a number that's hard to interpret and that's housing get this, i've been working on this all day i can tell we need a lot more houses so the price of homes comes down because of the supply or a lot fewer that means the builders are worried about housing and they know the business here is what i do know unless we get more houses for sale, the fed will tighten until the sellers sell at any price, which is their ultimate goal at the fed. proctor and gamble reports the stock is visible maybe they're right. i'm betting the stock will go up anyway because there are so many short sellers betting against this one we own it for the trust because we think it has fallen too much and the headwind is about to turn into a tailwind after the close, we hear from the most closely watched company in the universe and that is tesla. yeah, tesla.

now, in someways tesla reminds me of bitcoin. it's come down to a level where the buyers won't stop coming in to support it. i think they will be out there no matter what tesla reports i actually care about the numbers and i think they'll be great because tesla has inventory to sell and don't need to advertise the stock is a real disappointment here is a shocker. do you know tesla is down 41% for the year i ibm, i don't know if they will put up the numbers management strategy is betting heavily on a hybrid cloud and analytics but that's become a hated sector i expect to hear a lot of whispering about the size of the dividend that produces a 5.4% yield. that's very high for a tech stock. maybe too high the most important quarter may be from one little know, lamb research it's the best semi conductor equipment maker out there.

you need their machines to make semi conductors. it's caught in the cross hairs of the biden administration because they want to make it more difficult for the chinese military to manufacture the high-tech chips. if they hear similar to applied materials this week the whole semi conductor world will have another down that's what doesn't stop it just doesn't stop all right. thursday we hear from at&t i want so badly for it not to be disappointing because so many people own this from the old days can they pull it off they haven't yet maybe this time will be different. i'm skeptical. down here at 14 i can't be as negative as i was higher and i should have said i can't be as right as i was because man, was i ever right i took a lot of heat that's okay. many are worried that commerce is slowing because of the fed's aggressive rate hikes but you know who has their finger on the thriving economy it's a big railroad like union

pacific. it's really important to know how the rails are doing. i'm worried about weakness because it will reverberate through the stock with weakness. i put it up there. i'd say i'm a big believer in union pacific anyway now whirlpool intrigues me because it has a european business maybe for sell and could be part of the company if they sell it, the stock is a massive buy. that said whirlpool is a dog of late it is just real cheap. finally, we end up here friday three key large companies, verizon, american, schlumberger often miss pronounced schlu schlumberger verizon trades terribly. it continues to wilt in the face of tough competition from cramer fav t-mobile american express is dragged down by the cohort yet i think it's the best in class and i think we'll have a good quarter. finally, let's end on what could be the best quarter, which is

slob, s-o-b. there will be a new investment circle to spur tremendous momentum for the great quarter this, by the way, was one of the single best quarters we had in the previous reporting season. bottom line, there are dozens of important companies reporting but understand in this environment, individual companies aren't the only thing that matters the market is dominated by the bonds oil and dollar so remember, if we have a big up day like yesterday, that's a chance to do something. >> sell, sell, sell. >> because there probably won't be follow through. that is indeed the story on the bear market of 2022. suzanne in minnesota, suzanne? >> caller: hi. [ laughter ] oh, this is great. have you ever been to minnesota? >> to where? >> caller: to minnesota. >> minnesota you kidding me i've been in every aspect of minnesota. lakes there, i was there for the super bowl i was there in 20 -- really, i was there for the greatest day in history, when the eagles won

so i'm proud minnesotan. >> caller: how about bob dylan's hom hometown. >> highway 64. i hitchhiked on highway 64 i'm all over him, too. bob zimmerman. what else? >> caller: i want to know if you drink a lot of coffee, i'm wondering if i should buy -- >> dunkin donuts later in the afternoon because ben said let's break the whole starbucks orthodox what's going on? >> caller: i don't know. do you think i should buy it >> what? the dunkin' donuts that's private oh, starbucks. yes, yes, yes, just kidding. i just did that just to irritate howard schultz for a few jokes starbucks is very inexpensive and buy it and thanks for the nice minnesota comments. this market is dominated by bonds, oil, the dollar if we have a big up day like yesterday, take chances and do selling. on "mad money" tonight, the cip is a measure of the market but how well do you understand the

data i'm pulling back the curtain on the numbers and sharing what you need to know to become a better investor and earning season comes with a big bench of reports. i'll returning through the numbers to discuss the sector including bank of america on monday and oil could be one of the most watched corners of the market but amid a host of headwinds, what can investors expect i'm discussing with an oil expert rusty brazil so stay with cramer >> announcer: don't miss a second of "mad money." follow @jimcramer on twitter have a question? tweet cramer #madtweets. send jim an email to madmoney@cnbc.com or give us a call at 1-800-743-cnbc miss something head to madmoney.cnbc.com. ag? why not both? visibly diminish wrinkled skin

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after yesterday's crazy action where the market initially took a dive in response to an over heated number before roaring back vengr department's payroll report for the moment you hear about the cpi endlessly because we're worried about inflation but what the heck does the number actually represent? everybody knows the cpi measures consumer inflation and you know whether the last few readings were over heated or benign but most home gamers probably don't have a ton of insight into what is happening underneath and that's something you definitely need to know when the markets have such wild swings in response to a previous metric. tonight i got to drill down into the consumer price index to understand what it means and then look over the individual

components to give you more granular sense of what it's at the worst and right direction. some are, some aren't. let's start with what it is. the cpi measures changes in prices for goods and services aimed at urban consumers, those urban. the burro of labor static stics collects this data from 50,000 landlords and tenants. more important, the cpi is not merely a data point. this number has real world significance because so many things are pegged to it. for example, social security has a cost of living adjustment tied to the cpi just yesterday, we learned that there will be an 8.7% increase in social security next year to offset inflation that's all down to the hot cpi readings we've been getting. same for food stamps and many union contracts.

what's it really measures? there is a ton of stuff but the burro of labor statistics di v divides them into four big categories, food, energy which includes energy commodities like gasoline and energy services like electricity and on top of that, all items list food and energy, any kinds of goods, trucks or barrels, you name it the other catch all services, less energy services meaning shelter, transportation, medical care nobody goes into this because it's too hard but we'll go into it because hard sometimes determines things. the consumer price index gets reported in a lot of ways. they give you a year over year number and month over month number i find and the everything number and the core cpi and management tends to be a lot more volatile but they're actually the heart of inflation in this market for example, last month the

overall consumer price index was up 8.2% year over year and .4% versus august. the core cpi was up 6.6% year over year, yet it had 8.6% increase versus august you can take a look at the action both at cpi and course obviously pretty much straight up, the ex terts say disappointment however there was one bright spot here the inflation peaked in june at 9.1% you can see we got peak, right it came down to 8.5 in july and 8.3 in august and 8.2 in september so it feels like it's going. that feels like from the peak in commodity prices when you look at the core cpi, the inflation number for everything not food or energy still actually heating up. that's right, getting stronger at 6.6% increase for september was actually the highest year

over year core inflation reading since 1982 prompting a wave of headlines about the worst core inflation in 40 years. it didn't hurt the stock market because so many people were short betting bad and had to cover but you saw it happen today in the market. it unwound given so much of the inflation problem is food and energy cost, i think the core number is the wrong one to focus on and when you look at the overall cpi numbers on a month over month basis, september's .4 isn't that bad. look at the numbers from the last 12 months at the worst point this year, we were seeing monthly inflation of more than 1% so while yesterday's number was higher than expected and a step in the wrong direction after a cooler month over month increase in july and august, it still wasn't as bad as the increases in the break. now what we're going to do is leave this behind and drill down into the components. look, i want you to know this stuff. some people say jim, why are you bothering? we want stocks, stocks, stocks

but this is controlling the fed now. i'm giving it to you i look over the big categories, there a few bright spots energy has been fogged for three straight months. it was down again today by the way. energy down 2.1% month over month in september it's actually oil is down actually $1 per barrel since the opec price hike. remember when they cut and we thought it would hike prices it's fall an dollar. i like used car and truck prices have been down for three straight months. i think those prices keep falling because every time the fed tightens, it's more expensive to get satfinancing a their getting parts. apparel is hit down 3% i'm betting there is more to come because there is a massive inventory glut in retail a reason the charitable trust owns tjx there is no shortage of bad numbers. food remains a huge problem up .8% versus august i still like the agricultural stocks i think that they are terrific to own

we know the food companies are starting to see big savings from lower commodity cost although it takes sometime for their contracts to roll over we need them to pass the savings onto the consumer, something that hasn't happened yet and won't until their customers force them to. utility gas services are high, too, although that's tough to complain about when europe has energy shortages all over the place. by comparison, the natural gas cost is next to nothing. some of the worst inflation was in services, which include shelter up .7% month over month is no good no improvement there at all. other than piped gas, the single worst line is transportation services up 1. 9%. something that should come as no surprise no wonder delta reported a magnificent quarter yesterday. i mean, this is where prices are just going too high and just remember, this experience service economy people going after covid ended, we know covid

is still on but you know what i mean, the wave of covid doesn't scare people as much as it used to finally medical care services turned into the hottest reading in ages up 1% month over month it was stunning, people. maybe it's time to start looking at the med tech or hospital stocks again especially because health care has the added advantage of the being high hery sis -- highly resistant united health had a fantastic number this morning. here is the bottom line, drill down into yesterday's meeting, it's not as horrific as the headlines might lead you to believe. inflation is high but still moving in the right direction but not going fast enough for the fed which is why you have to steal yourself for more big rate hikes as jerome powell brings the pain in order to slow down these prices but also the economy. "mad money" is back after the break. >> announcer: coming up, it's one way to wrap your head around those fed games, take an interest in bank earnings with cramer, next

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in the first week of every earnings season, pepsi co kicks things off with a nice quarter and hear from a host of the biggest banks that can tell you a great deal about the financial industry and economy every three months i like to give a run down of the banks because they set the stage for the rest of the earnings season and a huge part of commerce in this country this morning alone, we got results from jp morgan, wells fargo, citi group, four of the six largest in america with the other two coming next week and you know what? the numbers were by in large pretty good but they need explanation. let's start with the one that report the 6:45 a.m. today let's start with j.p. morgan this morning, the numbers were -- they were stunningly strong i say surprising because if you

spend any time listening to ceo jamie diamond recently, he's painted a pretty negative picture of both u.s. and global economy although i think he's actually -- i won't say misquoted. i didn't think he put the right words on it. he did a great job of setting the barlow with the stock plunging from $173 at the peak a year ago to $109 at the close yesterday. jp morgan delivered a terrific set of numbers this was a clean beat with a 10% revenue growth year over year and revenues at $3.12 per share. that was 22 cents higher than expected while the corporate investment banking business struggled, jp morgan is cleaning up in consumer and community banking up 14% commercial banking is up 21% those are astounding numbers i've been telling you the banks make a fortune when the federal reserve raises interest rates because they can take your deposits they pay next to nothing for and invest in short term treasuries to get a much

higher risk free return so it was no wonder that jp morgan's net interest income shot up 51% which you exclude the business compare to the expectation, every business was better. slightly higher provisions but enough strength to offset the damage from that minor issue and that's what they want to please the government doing it's not because there is real elevation. while some of jp morgan's businesses weren't perfect like investment banking or home lending, these were areas of softness everybody knew about going in jamie diamond was guarded, he acknowledged the american consumers are spending and balance sheets remain solid. he certainly is worried about the fed bringing down the hammer, but, again, that's not a surprise it was just kind of a nice quarter. now, it could have been better i would have preferred if jp morgan for instance announced a gigantic buy back.

that buy back returns nicely next year but overall, it was very solid set of numbers with a strong performance from the core banking operation and no big negatives to think of. the stock could rally $2 even in the face of a terrible day one time it was up $4 but the market was awful today next up, we got the results from wells mario which we own for the travel trust because i like it as a come back story and once again, the quarter was amazingly strong wells gave you a nice top and bottom line beat, driven by rapidly rising interest margein and that's charlie sharp, the ceo knows how to cut cost better than anyone in banking and everyone in banking would admit that even better, wells raised the full year net income forecast for 24% growth versus 2021 when it was up only 20% consumer banking is solid. even as the mortgage business is kind of gotten pretty awful, commercial banking is on fire.

even the investment banking business, investment banking that's new for them is involved in the albertson deal, the kroger albertson deal is bombing because they're not exposed to the weaker parts the reason we own wells fargo for the trust, they have more interest rate exposure than most peers. people have been worried about the other consequences of rate hikes, people losing their jobs and can't pay their bills and default on obligations while wells has a provision for credit loss come in higher than expected, not that much higher the income is enough to offset the damage from the very pun kn small amount of bad loans. that's a great loan story. i remain a believer. management is executing well i think the story will only get better as rates go higher and as the year goes on by wells fargo. all right. now, how about one that i got wrong? morgan stanley this is another one that we own

for the travel trust and we got slammed today. i think the market overreacted i think there is a lot of knit picking. i can give another alternative for every line that was bad but a tough time to be an investment bank when you spent years pivoting toward as more consistent asset management based business model and really investment banking is a much smaller part of the operation. they reported a revenue short fall that was bad social security business includes investment banking and trading, awful their wealth management business came in worse than expected, too. while morgan stanley's net interest was up 22%, i like that, it's a much smaller piece of the pie for them than for, say, j.p. morgan or wells fargo. this was indeed a rough quarter. i think morgan stanley can eventually thrive once the market is out but until then, you got to be patient in this one. we keep holding it for the travel trust because we like the generous dividend that yields

4.1% and the big buy back, the biggest of all these we would have sold it a long time ago if the ceo hadn't diversified away from investment banking into the less volatile wealth management space. we were certainly wrong about this quarter i admit that you have to own that there were a lot of little items that kept the company from shining so it's safe to buy at 75 but you may say jim, you told us you loved it so you have every reason to be critical of being about this fourth we heard from citi which i don't talk about much. it's the red headed stepchild of the banks. a disappointer with an ever shrinking disappointment most of the strain came from higher net interest margins, total gift from the fed. city has an investment banking that's real ugly now, still terrible aside from bonds that picked up. on top of that management reiterated the forecast and i like that. stock managed to rally a bit

today in response but i got to tell you, i have become a citi group skeptic for two decades. we've seen citi rally a number of times including a 13% gain after they reported last july and you know what happened the gains quickly faded and the stock came back down and i didn't want to be affiliated while citi cleared a low bar, i'd much rather own the other banks based on misplaced worries about a fed mandated slow down as some of the biggest beneficiaries from higher rates so let's put it all together wells fargo and jp morgan were impressive and i would be excited by citi's numbers if they hadn't recked so many people the only real downer was morgan stanley. i thought james gorman sounded confident on the show a few weeks ago so today's numbers did come as a surprise to me then again the stocks feel cheap and got a great franchise with a big buyback and bought back a ton of

stock. i won't get too negative on the bottom here is the bottom line. we got good quarters from three of the four major banks that reported today i say three out of four ain't bad and i'm holding tight with morgan stanley if the whole market hadn't already roared yesterday, i think we could have had a nice rally in response to these numbers. but as it is, i say that this is a surprisingly solid start to the earning season and a possible sign of new leadership in the entire stock market let's go to chris in texas, chris? >> caller: hey, jim. boo-yah from dallas. thanks for having me. >> good luck sunday night. what's going on? >> caller: yeah, big game. so i'm sure you're excited. >> big game. i'm a kind guy i said good luck i'm not like those philadelphians that punch people and throw rocks and stuff. i say good to support your team. what's up? >> caller: hey, i wanted to hear your opinion on rocket as a company and do you think it's a good long term holding

>> it's terrible going back and forth when it was at 20, 18, 17. at six could it go to eight? yeah i got burned by these guys and you burned me a couple times, you don't win my favor let's go to gary in ohio, please, gary >> caller: hello, jim. how are you? >> i am good, gary how about you? >> caller: real good hey, it's an honor to speak to you and i highly value your opinions. >> awe, thank you. >> caller: i'd like your opinion and advice on d dominion energy going down steadily and will it re recoup >> i think it yields 4%. it is one of the better run utilities. i really like it the problem is i can get 4.5 from the treasury and without any risk, i am going to go to the two-year treasury. three out of four ain't bad and

i'm holding tight with morgan stanley and i felt the pain and it really did wreck the day. much more "mad money" ahead including my exclusive wit rusty brazil where can the hot commodity be headed if the sky is so right on it i'm discussing one of the best of the best in the industry and then, finally, someone has jumped the gun on wall street proving that a tough sector might finally be investable. i'll reveal the report and what you should make of it and you want to know and all of your calls, rapid fire in tonight's edition of the lightning round so stay with cramer.

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a funny thing happened

recently, opec plus decided to cut oil production by 2 million barrels per day and while the price of crude jump in response, it's come right back down to the mid 80s. as of today, it could be going lower. it's a telling move. let's check in with my favorite energy analyst, the best there is rusty brazil, the founder and executive chairman of rbn energy welcome back to "mad money." >> well, thanks for having me again, jim. >> all right so rusty, our viewers are confused they see a 2 million cut -- 2 million barrel cut and they say i guess gas is going back up to $5 none of that happened. matter of fact, oil is going down despite the 2 million barrels. could you please explain it's a new world and that what you see in the papers isn't necessarily what is happening? >> well, theres a lot going on first of all, it just so happens today the price of wti crude oil settled $1 lower than it was the

day before opec made their announcement so crude oil prices are down so it's obviously not the same kind of big deal that a lot of people have you believe. but there is really three reasons that this is happening one, the 2 million barrel a day target cut really only means about a million barrels a day of really physical cuts because opec production was already down about a million barrels a day before below the targets in the first place. so only accounts for about half. second, there is a lot of other things going on besides the cuts you have the e.u. ban on russian imports december 5th more releases from the petroleum reserve of the next couple months that's pushing prices down and let's face it, the energy market is priced in a mild recession at this point so if we get that, demand is going to be down particularly for diesel and jet and you throw strong dollar up on top of all of that and the

result has been that 2 million barrel a day cut has no impact on the market whatsoever. >> i'm glad you explained it to people because they have been completely mystified and see a lot of oil stocks down and figure this might be the time to buy. to me, we have to wait for them to come down more but rusty, something else is really bothering a lot of viewers and that is the president is mad at the saudis thinking they should help us more and now the president is thinking of talking to venezuela but one thing the president isn't doing is talking to major oil companies in this country and they're telling me offline they can't believe we're at this moment in history where the president would rather resurrect venezuela than talk to our own producers. how is this happening? >> well, jim, as you know, i'm no politician so i can't tell you why it's happening there is no doubt that it is because the production community, oil and gas community has been really disappointed

that the government didn't come to that industry and basically say, we want you to do everything that we can, that you can in order to increase production and increase production not just for the short term, not just before there is an energy transition but be a part of the energy transition and increase production in order to be able to provide security of energy supplies at the same time we're making a transition. that really hasn't happened. the body language hasn't been there and so you see the results basically crude oil production was actually down a little bit and numbers that came out this week. >> amazing now, there is another theme that my colleague david faber reported on that again, so many things happening, rusty, in your world that are just so nutty looks like exxon is the leader in carbon capture. i'm not kidding. they are doing things that are so aggressive and positive and yet again, not giving a

recommendation in washington but at least maybe you can tell people that this is no longer for show, it is no longer green wash, it's serious. >> absolutely. it's not just exxon. it's oxy, it's den berry, it's many companies that we talked about that are looking to the legislations that's been passed and inflation reduction act and the infrastructure act both of those pieces of legislation have a lot of encouragement for carbon capture and these companies are going to be a part of it and going to be a big part of it and i think it's actually a positive considering what could have come out of the administration so it's a good thing they're getting recognition. >> absolutely. he is -- we have a position in our travel trust he was talking about look, if oil spiked to 120, he's not

going to produce a lot more because you don't know how volatile it can be what a great call. it was 120 now back to the 180s could it go back to the 70s, rusty? >> yeah, yeah, i think it could and it all depends on what happens to the economy if the economy slows, then the demand for diesel is going to slow because companies just have to move less stuff around, right? so they're going to use less diesel air travel will probably fall so you'll have a decline back in jet. probably the only thing that's relatively resilient relative to a slight down turn in the economy is gas lean. gasoline where we are right now is a heck of a lot cheaper than last summer so you could see the demand for gasoline kick up and other energy products will be down some and that's kind of what we can expect, i think. >> rusty, is there ever a

tipping point on our lifetime where oil companies really do have to worry because of e.v.? right now e.v.s are a very small part of the equation. >> well, of course, you'll have to tell me how long you're going to live, jim i'm not -- [ laughter ] i'm not sure how long our lifetimes are. but yeah, i think over the next ten years, we're going to see penetration of the e.v.s and it's going to be a factor for gasoline, the use of gasoline in vehicles so it's going to be a factor but on the other hand, remember, we're producing more gasoline than we use today and any gasoline that we do produce is going overseas so you can make the argument that if we are not using it here, it probably goes to third world countries that might not be progressing quite so fast as the united states. >> let's question, suki was on recently and he was telling me if europeans lend companies

money and really get the ball rolling, he felt that we in the united states could provide enough natural gas to western europe by 2026 that maybe they could get out of their jam with russia, too aggressive >> i think there's a lot of things that would have to happen right in order to be able to get out of the jam by 2026 they will get out of the jam, they proetty much have to get ou of the jam it's the time it takes to build these assets that is going to determine how quickly they can get out of the jam i think they can probably get out of the jam whether they start lending money to people in the united states or not. >> all right well, terrific once again, a lot of sanity and a very insane world where i think there are a lot of people that felt with that 2 million barrels, oil would be at 110 nobody would have believed except for you it would be down after the cut. i want to thank rusty brazil, founder and executive chairman of rbn energy and perhaps the

most knowledgeable person i know in the world about oil and gas rusty, thank you so much. >> thank you, jim. >> "mad money" will be back after the break. >> announcer: coming up, cramer takes your calls and the sky is the limit. it's a fast fire lightning round next

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it is time, it is time for the lightening round buy, buy, and play the sound and then the lightning round are you ready, ski daddy time for the lightening round.

start with john in texas, john >> caller: hi, this is john. yes, intuitive surgical. >> look, i like intuitive surgical but people don't like that group i'll stick by it linda in new york, linda >> caller: hey, jim, i love your show. >> thank you, linda. what's going on? >> caller: so my question is with this sector being where it is now, i want to know your thoughts on qualcomm. >> we had qualcomm this week basically said we have too many semi conductors i had to cut it back joseph in california, joseph >> caller: yes, boo-yah, jim i'm -- >> boo-yah. >> caller: i'm wondering about it. >> hold on to it for the travel trust and that concludes the lightning round. >> announcer: the lightening round is sponsored by t.d. ameritrade

coming up, did the market miss this link? why china gained the upper hand in semis, next

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finally someone who jumped the gun. i'm talking about how loop capital initiated coverage on kingpin micron today with a shocking buy rating perronouncig themselves ahead of the curve. they want to draw a line in the stand arguing we'll see a resurging in some of the worst stocks in the entire market. they mention that micron's core memory business experienced a long enough downturn, sharp reduction and significant capital expenses ahead with the stock down nearly 50% from the highs. in other words, time to buy. now, as much as i like to get an early one, there is a bottom coming i think this is a premature call and a tough one for most to swallow. i don't blame the analyst here

as micron's valuation is historically low relative to book value very important tell how cheap the stock has become but the semi conductors are cursed and there is no end to how cursed they are that's why i told investing club members on our month recall yesterday you should only own one chip maker at most i'm leery out semis but not wary of the semis because of the philadelphia semi conductor index is down 45% for the year when they do eventually turn around and they will, theytend to move up significantly all at once but it's about timing and i think the term is way, way out versus where loop thinks it is why? the semis are far more linked to china than a year ago. under president trump the government decided to bask china with tariffs and under president biden trying to destroy the war

machines the leaders treat china like the enemy and we don't want them getting hands on high walletty c -- quality chips so justify owning a semi conductor chip stock. there is some good news in the industry nvidia is allowed to sell graphic chips, ones that launched today into china. our government is not blocking everything but i don't think it matters all that much when you consider we're probably looking at a data center slow down and that's not yet priced in the stocks it's no wonder nvidia stock was down another $7 today. 61% for the year second, there was a huge amount of double ordering in this group when things were better. buyers were afraid they wouldn't get the allocation chips now the customers are saying whoa we're fill up and don't need anymore we're realizing this now so there will be charges gon the inventory. not good we're seeing a big cut in

capital expenses, that's true, there is a ton of new chips being made to the point the inventory is nowhere near running out. takes a couple quarters for those plays to play out. we have the fact micron stock is above where it was trading when last reported despite the down beat calibration of the future ist it's tempting. what matter is the customers i think they're frozen for now this slow on the economy and china situation. global economic slowdown doesn't help the buying of semi conductors if you make a semi conductor for any device, you will be cut off from china administration is fair ly good. china won't be a big market for the semi industry soon and if they lose it will be hard for the stocks to return to the previous highs so i do this, watch micron, don't move yet, see if it starts moving down next week when other semis report ultimately, i think the stock can make a massive move higher when the time is right but for

now, i think loop is too early and i prefer to sell in strength rather than stick your neck out to buy them into weakness. i like to say there is always a bull market somewhere and i promise to try to find it for you here o "the news with shepard smith" starts right now children without their mothers, a son without his dad a groom without his bride, a husband without his wife the heartbreak in raleigh, north carolina, i'm kayla tausche in for shepard smith. this is the news on cnbc. >> everybody is saying he has a gun. >> a 15-year-old suspected in a deadly rampage five killed including his own brother. what we're learning about the alleged shooter and the lives he took will he or won't he? former president trump responds to the impending subpoena from the 1/6 committee. what he wrote an