it's 5:00 a.m. at cnbc global headquarters. stocks trying to bounce back after friday selloff we will see if that holds. in focus is earnings from the banks. we will see if bank of america's brian moynihan is as sour as jamie dimon. growing calls for the uk prime minister liz truss layout the road map

oil coming off the worst week since august as global recession fears out weigh the moves by opec. later, elon musk about face over ukraine and free starlick internet it is monday, october 17th, 2022 it is "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc. good morning i'm seema mody in for brian sullivan let's kick off with a look at futures on monday morning. we are sharply higher. take a look at the dow jones industrial average indicated higher by 253 points nasdaq higher by 119 s&p 500 is higher by 35 points the implied open at this hour. this coming after a pretty rough session for wall street on friday that saw the dow and s&p and

nasdaq close down more than 1%, 2% and 3% respectively it follows thursday when we got the hotter than expected inflation read stocks moving higher the take away is it is volatile. futures are pricing in the 75 point hike for november. yields are lower at this hour. 3.96% for the 10-year treasury pivot to energy. oil is moving. wti crude is flat. ice brent crude back above $90 barrel let's look at crypto we are seeing bitcoin and ethereum bitcoin is lower ethereum is higher bitcoin above $19,000. let's get an overnight look at

asia we turn to joumanna bercetche in the london newsroom. good morning, seema. the focus on the china party congress and for those looking for a change in the stance toward szero covid policy. they are sticking to their guns. we saw chinese stocks slipping and turn around toward the close. .40% higher for the shanghai composite. .10% higher for the hang seng. tech stocks leading the declines down 1.1% for japanese index in australia, declines led by commodities. in europe, you see everything trade in the green focus on the uk. ftse 100 is at the center of the action

we are expected to get a revised fiscal statement from the chancellor at 11:00 local time where more u-turns are expected on the budget. we are seeing positive day for equities and sharp turn around in fixed income. gilts rallied today. dax is up .30% all eyes on the meeting coming up in the next few days with the energy policy. finally, we have the ibex and to the ftse mib up slightly seema, back to you thank you, joumanna. let's get a check of the top corporate stories with bertha coombs >> good morning, seema succession may be a few weeks away, but the myurdochs combinin

fox and news corp. this would bring them back together that split nine years ago. his son serves as ceo of fox so far, none of the murdochs has spoken about a deal. the recombination we bring together wall street journal and posting saving the murdochs money by not running two companies. and goldman sachs is planning to reorganize according to bloomberg, the bank would merge the businesses under another umbrella which is a third division would house transaction banking. the portfolio platforms specialty lender and ventures with apple and general motors.

and elon musk reversing course over asking the pentagon to pick up the tab when it comes to free starlink internet in ukraine. tweeting on saturday, the hell with it. starlink is still losing money and other companies are getting billions, we will keep funding the ukraine government for free. in a letter, the company said the use of starlink in ukraine could cost close to $400 million over the next 12 months. that is according to reporting from cnn oh, well, seema. you never know. >> he just tweeted two hours ago he will add a donate option to starlink the story continues. bertha, thank you. turning back to markets. james bullard is leaving the door open that the central bank will hike 75 basis points in the

next two meetings in november and december speaking this weekend on the sidelines of the imf and world bank meetings, bullard says it is too early to make that call it doesn't matter if they make the call later this year or early next year. bullard is a fan of front loading and then officials can pause and assess the situation let's talk about the outlook and what it means with kevin caron at washington crossing advisers. kevin, your take on what bullard had to say >> i think he is right there is a difference now versus the beginning of the year. the markets have already moved we were looking at markets that are pricing in 5.25% short rates. this is a very different set up than the beginning of the year where the market was essentially dead asleep.

not privcing in any hikes. and inflation in the spring. the fed got on the program and in terms of looking to aggressively go after inflation. the good news in all of this is the market seems to believe the fed is serious and they are going to deliver the fix that they promised for inflation. the question is going to be where do we go from here in terms of the economy that is a whole separate question >> with that uncertainty top of mind, kevin, i believe you write in the notes the final quarter of the year you are underweight risk asset tell us why. clearly you are concerned about where the economy is headed. more importantly, where one can make money right now >> of course at washington crossing, we follow the data closely. what we see is the majority of the last year is a deceleration in the overall beta flow we were

getting much for the year we have been seeing weakness all year conseque consequently, it is not to our advantage. the five-year treasury was down 12%. that eclipses the prior worst year of 1994 where the five-year treasuries were down 5%. it was a difficult year to make money in stocks or bonds in the near term, the reality is cash has offered the best return and probably still does at least for the short-term future. the good news is as i said, the market sees the fed getting inflation under control.

that opens up potential for positive surprise over the next 12 or 18 months potentially. we're just not there yet >> would you change your view if the next jobs report on november 4th comines in cooler than expected when you see the slowdown in the labor market >> that is the next question the question is if the economy pancakes into recession. from the equity standpoint, we are down 25% on the s&p 500. almost all of that has come from higher interest rates and lower multiples on earnings. the underlining earnings held up well the real question is going to be whether or not we have a recession or whether or not corporate earnings do eventually crater as the fed looks to raise interest rates here. we are seeing some signs of weakness in the current quarter earnings most of that weakness is tied to dollar strength than real

underlying weekweakness in demad the jury is still out on the question of recession. unemployment numbers are going to be interesting to watch for the moment, we are still fighting inflation problems, not recession problem. >> kevin, great to see you >> thank you when we come back, oil under pressure in the face of renewed global recession fears as investors await a u.s. response to the opec supply shock. with over three weeks from election day, urgency in the battle for senate control. brian gardner is here with what's at stake. and more on the tension over truss as the uk prime minister faces growing calls to step down less than 50 days in office. a very busy day here on "worldwide exchange. we're back in two. for them it's the biggest milestone, the biggest accomplishment, the sale of a business, or an important event for their family.

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a a ally we got the opec production announcements two months ago and since then, the administration has been figuring out how to respond. >> that's been one of the big drivers as to why prices are where they are to be honest. the downward pressure you have seen because the market is worried that the u.s. could come out with a really big spr release or limit production and weighs on wti prices we would say the most likely response from the u.s. administration is going to be in the form of spr. they have a few different vary acttctions they could deploy they have been releasing anywhere between 20 million to 40 million barrels each year these are the bipartisan acts that have been signed and an

gr greed. the administration could do 25 million to 35 million barrels that are due for the fiscal year they could do that now the fiscal year starts in october. we are in fiscal year 2023 that is the most likely option they are weighing release as much as 100 million barrels. you don't know given the the volume of uncertainty of the general response of the market which has been people have stayed away from going long. there is plenty of sentiment >> if releasing more from the spr is the main option, why do you think the biden administration is taking time? is it the midterms or the political push back the administration could receive >> of course this is a time of energy security the administration has already called on 180 million barrels of spr this year.

it also released 30 million barrels last year. remember, tech canicaltechnical should be used with the supply disruption, not influencing prices now the spr is being used to keep prices lower although that is not what it is mis meant to e used for this is the problem. we have drawn down spr this is the time of energy security u.s. production is not actually going up much. that is a miscalculation on the st administration's part. they hoped 1180 million barrels would be the bridge. it is constrained with the issues with steel and lack of labor and tier 1 ac acreracreag.

the european embargo hasn't kicked in yet. >> what is the next driver for oil besides the u.s. decision to release more oil from the spr. we see brent crude at $91 a barrel >> the market does look tight going forward. right now, we also have micro factors. the french strikes ongoing which is tightening up the diesel market it is weighing on crude. you have 600,000 barrels of crude demand because refineries are not running. you have china covid resurgence. the government is now focused on making sure there is a very, very strong enforcement of zero covid policies all of the factors will change

as we go into the year end we also have the eu embargo. i do think with opec plus cuts, let's be clear, i have heard headlines or rather heard from various analysts about how the opec cuts are not going to translate into actual meaningful changes to balances. remember in q4, opec is increasing because summer crude comes down this year, exports will remain flat quarter on quarter. it won't fall. that's driving sentiment it will end up tight evening upe market barring recession we think markets will be heading higher to year end we are talking december. >> amrita, thank you still on deck, halfway to go as the bank earnings season

rolls on what you can expect from bank of america and goldman sachs and more does brian moynihan share the same sentiment as jamie dimon does we'll find out on "worldwide exchange." back in two.

a big week shaping up for china as president xi jinping kicks off the week longing congress he is calling for faster military development

our eunice yoon is joining us from beijing eunice >> reporter: thank you making china great again is his task in the next five years and beyond in the two-hour speech on sunday, president xi said the reunification is underpinned by the modernization. that modernization would prioritize and continue to prioritize national security to president xi, that means self reliance, tech hesupremacy and military power that is normalize. the growth will take a backseat. common prosperity. this is narrowing the income gap with a frphrase he used

also high quality development which a lot of people pointed to as green investment and development. the continuation of zero covid, he said, which he said this policy has achieved major positive results and protects lives and the economy. he said that, of course, despite a lot of criticism outside of the government about the lockdowns and mass testing ef affecting the economic growth. when it comes to analysis, they expect policy support for tech and companies and also to attract global techtalent. education stocks were rallying today. investors poured into chip stocks in the chinese markets. this is despite the serious

concerns among a lot of players within the chip industry that president biden export controls on the chip industries could seriously under cut, seema, the development of the home grown industry >> and why xi under scores self sufficiency. eunice, in reference to competition, did he point to the united states or other countries in general >> reporter: it was interesting. he did not specifically reference the u.s. or any other nation he made his message quite clear in a veiled way when he said overseas there are a lot of dangerous storms ahead he also was talking about how china is going to prevail in the battle for core technology

overseas even though there wasn't any direct reference to the u.s., obviously, indirect one about how china is going to prevail against any of what it perceived to be china's enemies. >> you have to read the tea leaves thank you, eunice. let's get a check of the other headlines with phillip mena >> good morning. this morning, air raid sirens in kyiv after the russian attacks against the capital in ukraine for the second straight week, emergency crews on the ground responding to the damage caused by by kamikaze drones one body of a woman has been found and others are still trapped. the number of casualties is unknown. the bill and melinda gates

will pledge $1.2 billion to eradicate polio. according to the state froment the foundation, they are working to eradicate it from pakistan and afghanistan. the funds will be used to stop variants of the virus. the yankees bats needed to come alive to avoid the season coming to an end in cleveland. >> here's another drive to deep left centerfield this one is gone >> the early blast gave the yankees a leg up on the guardians. new york's pitching did not allow a run after the fourth the yankees win 4-2 forcing a game five. the winner will take on houston for the alcs. thank you, phillip is still ahead, why mark

zuckerberg's metaverse problems are all too real. what netflix wanted to do back in 2019 to boost the content lie brotbrary with helpm tom cruise we'll be right back.

futures pointing to a higher open as stocks look to put friday's selloff in the rearview mirror. a loss for cupertino as a

second factory votes union. and liz truss is under pressure as they revamp the policy road map. will it be enough? it is monday, october 17th, 2022 you are watching "worldwide exchange" on cnbc. welcome back i'm mohyseema mody in for brian sullivan at this hour. it is 5:30 a.m. in new york. let's pivot and look at the green on the screen. sharply higher in the pre-market trade. dow jones industrial average up 316 points we are beginning momentum here nasdaq higher by 142 points. s&p is higher by 43. let's get to some of the morning top corporate stories with bertha coombs. >> good morning, seema meta platforms horizon world is

failing to meet performance expectations this is according to the the wall street journal which reviewed internal documents. meta aimed to reach 500 million active users monthly in horizon world by the end of the year the current figure is less than 200,000. most users don't return to horizon after the first month on the platform the number of users has fallen since the spring employees at the apple store in oklahoma city voted friday to jo join a union this is seen as a defeat for the company which opposes unionization efforts and a win for communications workers of america which has faced uphill battles to unionize in georgia and new york city. not long before the pandemic, netflix explored buying paramount pictures.

the studio behind "the godfather" and "top gun. they wanted the library and lot in hollywood it wasn't interested in buying the cable company. talks stalled out. "top gun" at netflix, seema, that would have been interesting. >> it would. thank you, bertha. to a developing story. newly minted uk finance minister jeremy hunt will unveil a revamped fiscal road map today about two years earlier than expected which comes after a wild day in the uk on friday which included a fierring of th former finance minister and u-turn for trusliz truss. we have arabile outside 10 downing street what's next? >> reporter: we are expecting

jeremy hunt to deliver a message to undo, perhaps, what may have been the mini budget sentiments puts forward by the former finance minister who was asked to step aside which happened on friday with the prime minister liz truss u-turning on the corporation tax. that also happening on friday. the expectation now is ajeremy hunt will deliver a message that could u-turn on the mini-budget statements that were put forward and what liz truss could put forward with the mini-budget the plan is set to come out on october 31st, but that could move with parts of it coming forward today. bringing forward that sentiment and a clearer message to the market on the plan for the government >> arabile, prime minister liz truss is 41 stays sdays into tm

as prime minister. take a look at the front page papers we are showing right now across england truss fighting for survival. it goes on and on. clearly she is losing confidence here >> reporter: so, we have gotten word from a few members of parliament and some saying it would be premature for her to stay not necessarily helpful for her to stay in power some question by the media last week at the press conference asking the question why she should remain in office with the finance minister stepping aside. a a few question marks and questions from president biden putting forward the tax cuts that were the initial statement from liz truss and her finance

minister noting that he did not agree that the u.s. president joe biden. these were his exact words coming out this past weekend >> i wasn't the only one who thought it was a mistake i think that the idea of cutting taxes on the super wealthy at a time when -- anyway, i disagree with the policy. that's up to great britain to make that judgment not me >> reporter: so clearly his sentiments are the sentiments of the market we are seeing today that the ten-year uk gilt has fallen 30 basis points just above the 4% figure the pound is .80% stronger earlier this morning as well as we said, expecting the comments to come through from the uk finance minister jeremy hunt which may reverse some of

the budget statements that were put forward earlier this month. >> we will see that at 6:00. arabile, i appreciate it back here in the u.s financials will dominate the earnings conversations today bank of america expected to post before the bell. on friday, we did hear from jpmorgan chase morgan stanley and wells fargo and citigroup. among the themes, less than stellar outlook for the u.s. economy. specifically from jamie dimon. joining us now is director of equity research. ken, your take on what we heard from the major banks >> good morning. br banks are a good barometer where we are in the economy barring investment banking looking out to next year and

recession, we're just not seeing it in the numbers across all of the banks that reported friday or bank of america whether it is consumer lending and health in terms of credit card or rif or loss exposure or commercial banking where there isn't a distressed industry. those are tea leaves of recession coming it is a tale of two markets. >> the ipo market has dried up, ken. we have seen a rise in m&a kroger putting in an offer for albertsons that should help the banks which banks benefit the most >> so, you know, the voice was weak with the strong investment banking pipeline for the fourth quarter which is one of the biggest quarters for underwriting underwriting with ipos is not expected to pick up the rest of

the year m&a will because corporate clients are flushed with cash. if they can't organically grow, they may do acquisitions it is a small area of investment banking. the small area is trading. not with equity and fixed income trading earlier in the year. >> regards to fixed income trading. what do you expect to hear from bank of america? >> i think it is measured risk all of the banks, including bank of america, are concerned about the regulatory capital requirements they are not taking big risks on the fixed income side. particularly derivatives you see the news with credit suisse or bank of england and effect on the credit markets banks are conservative today

versus years ago. >> ken, what is your take that goldman sachs is planning a reshuffle and also taking the three divisions and folding the big business into three decisi decisions? >> i haven't seen the article. my presumption would be this type of restructuring usually happens when you under perform or there is an outlook of maturity possibly this is cutting away layers of cost even if it is at the managing director level. >> okay. goldman down 20% this year ken, thank you i appreciate it. ken leon don't miss the bank of america ceo interview on power lunch and 21 sdays and counting

until the midterms what you need to know. and before we head to break, sam's club is raising the membership fee basic fees at the store will increase from $45 to $50 starting today starboard has taken a 5% stake in splunk. it plans to push the software maker to boost the stock price we will see splunk higher by 5%. and marriott entering the luxury yacht market the voyage from barcelona to nice this weekend. stay tuned you are watching "worldwide exchange" on cnbc.

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we have just over three weeks until election day the battle for control are of the senate any race to tilt the balance of power for years to come. con ttests are tightening in georgia where early voting begins today as conservatives hopes rest on candidate herschel walker with the hotter than expected inflation report last week, voters could think with wallets now more than ever joining me now is stiffel financial analyst brian gardner.

brian, good morning. >> good morning. >> you say the hotter than expected read on inflation that we got out last week could heavily influence the mid terms. >> it is one of the last big economic data points before the midterms the jobs report the friday before i think the jobs picture is understood i don't think it is moving voters in the same way when you look at how voters prioritize it is the economy and inflation. you put them together around 35% to 40% make up their minds about that you put in the social issues like crime gives tailwinds to the republicans for the mi midterms the voters look for the last bit of information on how they are

feeling. the inflation report reflects how voters are feeling it will not lead them to change their minds and how voters are feeling is not great on the economy right now. >> brian, if the republicans use inflation as a major talking point, won't democrats respond by saying look at the jobs market we have seen unemployment fall from 3.7% to 3.5%? >> sure. that is the natural response if the parties were flipped, i expect republicans to do the same when i try to gauge what is motivating voters, it is unhappiness about price hikes. wages are not keeping up with price hikes. people are feeling it in their pocketbooks. they are happy to have a job no doubt about that. when you try to balance out which is motivating voters move more, it is the inflation

numbers. >> the house is still up for grabs or is it a sweep >> i have been up for grabs the whole time i sense momentum in the republican direction i think given the timing of the information report, it could be a year where we see in the past where in 2014 was a year and others, the election tilts in mid-october. you mention georgia starting early voting today as people go, i think going into the ballot box, that last minute voter making up their mind and not a ton of them, but they are going to determine the outcome you will see a number of races that are decided by one point or less this moves a couple of key senate races in the republican direction. >> should the senate flip, what do you think the democrats will prioritize if that happens >> if the senate flips, i think

it puts a lot of pressure on chuck schumer to finish up strong in december during a lame duck session they will lose, democrats, would lose ability to confirm judges that would place a heavy priority on judicial confirmation in december it could delay economic decisions and punt that into january when the republicans take over. there are key business issues to look out for the business interest deduction and r&d spending those were issues that congress was dryitrying to deal within december if the senate flips, those could get punted. >> not to mention immigration. brian, we are out of time. i appreciate it. coming up on the show, from

surveys to corporate commentary. signs are pointing to tougher times for the economy. what should an investor do we will ask who money managers next. if you haven't already, follow our podcast check us out on apple or spotify or other podstpp wl right back. ♪♪ ♪♪ be ready for any market with a liquid etf. get in and out with dia. ♪ icy hot pro. ♪ ice works fast... to freeze your pain and your doubt. ♪ heat makes it last.

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this is the first time the survey has put the chances of the down turn above 50% since july of 2020 economists expect gdp to contract in the first two quarters of the year mike reynolds at glenmeade is with us. sina, i know you and i have been changing notes the economic projections are worse and worse. how are you advising >> the economic picture is deteriorating only because of the second leg to the stool here we have not seen the past two declines for e arnings to come down that shoe is yet to drop the guidance will tell us a lot more about what parts of the

equity story to play and which parts to avoid. >> michael, what do you think with more economists expecting recession? do earnings estimates need to come down more >> yes other base case is for recession over the next 12 months. it would be atypical not to see earnings decline you see average 15% decline in earnings over those periods. we are concerned about the outlook from here. given we still have premium valuations on equities we are at the 60th percentile. for our clients at this point, we are recommending underweight to comecompensate. >> should investors take advantage of the yield in the bond market? >> absolutely.

there are parts of the bond market where we're seeing interesting opportunities. particularly the shortened of the yield curve. you have less duration exposure on the short end of the curve. you are relatively insulated to increase interest rates from here we like cash as well overweight cash and fixed income >> suni, for investors who are bearish on bonds and focused on equity market, but now looking at the yield where should they look >> if you don't look like equities or bonds today, you should think how you build diversification for asset classes. whether it is access to the private market portfolio through private equity or from those listed in the private equity funds. the other way is to think about

stocks u.s. businesses that have domestic consumer base will fare better than global companies that are relatively resilient to a lower growth environment like insurance services and health care should still do well. this is a micro opportunity, not a macro call on equities >> michael, i'm looking at the economic calendar for this week. not a lot of industrial production jobless claims on thursday the next big report that markets are focused on is the jobs report on november 4th what is on your radar? >> for us it is jobs and inflation. we are still seeing a tight labor market mostly because labor force participation is nowhere near where it was pre-pandemic levels nor do we expect it to get back to the levels. we are bumping up on the

democrat head winds with the retirement of baby boomer keeping it down. we are watching the cpi reports for signs that sticky inflation is showing signs of coming back down to earth. for now, inflation is sticky until it shows signs of coming back down to earth, the fed is remaining on tightening. >> suni, you are based in london how as an investor are you looking at the fast moving political dynamic cross london right now? >> i think the new chancellor jeremy hunt has rolled back half of the unfunded tax cuts announced by the former chancellor we are looking at how much more he will roll back today at the press conference shortly if he goes all the way back to zero and figures out how to increase revenue to the state to

fix the deficit, the markets will react comfortably here. the issue with the uk right now is a crisis of confidence in the markets. that brought on financial instability. that is what investors will look at kcarefully. >> suni and michael, thank you that does it for us on "worldwide exchange. "squawk box" is next unds.com cay you for a payroll tax refund of up to $26,000 per employee, even if you got ppp. and all it takes is eight minutes to find out. then we'll work with you to fill out your forms and submit the application. that easy. getrefunds.com has helped businesses like yours claim over $1 billion in payroll tax refunds. but it's only available for a limited time. go to getrefunds.com powered by innovation refunds.

good morning stocks pointing to gains at the open as we prepare to kickoff week two of earnings season. this hour, bank of america the breaking news. uk finance minister set to update us on the fiscal policy

a wide ranging speech from president xi to kick off the national congress. we will bring you the highlights from beijing it is monday, october 17th, 2022 "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm rebecca quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. let's look at the u.s. equities stand on monday morning. there are glreen arrows. dow futures up 320 points. s&p up 44. nasdaq up 140. this is something to write home about except for the rough session on friday. we have the dow and s&