i don't think you make a lot on it, i'm staying shore. >> all right joe? >> i don't want to change jpmorgan up here, but on a pullback you're a buyer. >> we have goldman tomorrow, of course his andy. >> pro shares. i'll see you in "the o.t." "the exchange" is now. we're talking banks bonds and bottoms. first, the bank, the big driver for earnings season holding up better than expected we're going to drill down on the smaller ones that could be good bets for you now then bonds yields lower today, decade-highs last week. er we past the yield peak? the bond king of texas joins us. and the bottom -- could it

finally kinda sorta be in for the stocks one says we're seeing the technical bottom he is here with why and what he's buying now. let us begin with today's markets. dom, more green on the screen. >> tilden toward session hides give you the idea of the trading range, he highs, we're up 93 points, call it up roughly 106 points, and up 55s at the lows so even the lows of the session still very much to the up side, but we have tilted toward the higher end the things. up 2.5%. the dow is the laggard right now, only up 541 points, or about 1.75%. and the nasdaq composite up a whopping 35 points

but bank of america and bny mellon both reporting earnings up solidly, bank of america driven in large part to better results in its bond trading unit jpmorgan chase, citigroup, all take a sympathy bit higher and in the stock moving the day right now, now an s&p company, but roblox, the online virtual reality video game/augmented reality creation platform, if you will, tech company is up about 20 period of time after it reported user metrics that came in much better than expected over the same time last year, however booked by customers and

users, also up about 16% 44% of its value to a bigupsid move in context for you at $43, significantly below where it was a year ago, and it's been fairly range bound for the better part of the last couple months. >> almost meta-esque it is m-- >> it is meta-esque. our next guest says there's real value and, believe it o not, some of that value may actually be in europe. jason brady, president and ceo of thornburg investment management i saw value and europe in the same sentence that i thought, it's too early to be drinking. you're like on mountain time how are you finding value in

europe when all they're dealing with and all the variables we just don't know >> i'm still trying to parse whether meta-esque is a compliment in this environment >> it's not, no. >> that's really the story we look at s.a.p totale is a global energy company. it's trading under tent times with a mid single-digit yield. this is a story where there's global companies being tarred with the same brush as some of the more local cyclical companies. we think that's an opportunity. >> yeah, they're facing a potential workers strike in france right now by the way, that's the last thing that country or continent needs, but they're pushing big

time into renewables as well, and for your audience, particular newer investors, when things look the worst, that's often 9 best time to buy long term, is it not? >> of course what i would say to investors, i'm not in the business of calling the bottom i think we are now pricing in a recession. the next 12 months will be challenging, but cpi is starting to roll over, which is going to take a long time to work through. we have against valuations, not high flying tech, not private markets where there's been a lot of froth, but we have some great companies out there until ten times. it's just an interesting time. i think a good time for investors. >> like in s.a.p., they're huge here, we know that, but they're

a german-based company >> and that's trading at a significant discount about 17 times, that's pretty interesting. a lots of recurring revenue. i'm just not going to put a black mark again s.a.p., because it's not domiciled in the u.s. so, again, there's lots of value out there if you're willing to look, i'm kneel going to ask you to call the bottom you're a longer-term investor. when you look out six months, 12 months, we know about inflation, we know about central banks, that will eat se out what is the next best thing to focus on >> you look at jpmorgan,

obviously, up, whatever, 12%, 13%. whatever they reported was weaker earnings, but really the consumer is strong this is year on year the consumer is strong the idea that we're going to have a systemic challenge coming from the financial system, i don't see it i see a liquidity challenge, but that's choppy markets, that's not crash markets. ultimately the fed will not be the only game in town, will it they're going to stop raising at some point, probably late this year, early next year, but does it matter if it's december, january, february? they're rolling off those rate hikes. >> i group of on markets, and i'm kind of talking about the fed. >> get in lan, man. >> it is a big deal. tenth you could underestimate

the important of the last seven, eight months tenth that is an enormous change, certain unprecedented. the market is forward-looking. that's what we've seen, and frankly cash, 4-plus percent right now looks pretty good. the question is what will earning. i think it will decline, not crash. back in the days we had a show call "street signs. we have a million dollars a month at this rate i'm right there with you, jason. thank you. have a good day. now, no earnings season so far has the banks. the number have actually held up, but while so much attention is to the biggest banks, your

next guest has made his investors a lot of money by finding the smaller, hidden gems anton schutz, are you tired of talking about the fed? [ laughter ] >> yeah, i'm tired of talking about it, thinking about it, and being victimized by it everybody thinking armageddon is coming obviously i would love to see the fed slow their roll. that lag effect, we're all talking about it, let's let the lag effect take effect so far it's been pretty good for bank earnings. >> what do you mean, the lag effect, and victimized by the fed? go into those statements, anton. >> absolutely. first of all, financials have performed pretty well of late, but have been hurt a lot this year everybody is, my gosh, here comes the recession. the banks are part of the

solution, not part of the problem. they have plenty service capital. no long problems at all. >> the smaller guise are 7, 8, 9 times earnings, so there's a real opportunity here for a catch-up in a big way just to the rest of the market this goes all the way back to when i was running money on this fund in 2000 the large high p/e stocks came under assault, the low-pays financials performed really well for a number of years. i don't expect armageddon. obviously the fed raises rates to 10%, all bets are off

nobody is forecasting that, but clearly you have to let the rate hikes take effect. he's 5 base-point hikes in perpetuity have to come to a halt i think you're going to start sees different numbers we saw terrible numbers on housing last week, and you talked to everybody, rents should be coming down a great deal i think that effect, those numbers were awful-looking next week, but there's a real lag to that what opec is doing is opec is doing is unfortunate we do have a slupgs. i think the people in tex would love to talk about the solution. no doubt that self-sufficientie would be -- >> we were talking about getting rid of oil three years ago

now we're desperate for more oil, but that's an energy segment. one thing i love about you, you get on a plane, travel to country, talk to management. when is the last time you were in billings, montana, with the first interstate bank system i haven't been there for a long time, but i've known the ceo for a long time. you know what's nice, they completed a large merger, they have a large dividend. earnings estimates are too low they actually have a chance to be added to an important is that index. you've got a very conservative manage team there, so, you know, ilove self-help stories. this is a self-help story. that merger will work out well for this company that was a brilliant acquisition years ago. i expect them to keep expanding.

i asked growing up in california, kind of get that brand equity as well this one is new to me. lakeland bancorp they're in oak ridge, new jersey i didn't even know there was an oak ridge, new jersey. why do you like lvai >> the liquidity may well be in the company buying them. the ceos came from a company called bank north, and they have done a successful -- and i think cost assumptions are conse conservative a very large index, and sort of the samethene i mentioned.

they have learned a lot of lessons. they started again be conservative this company has a lot of earnings growth, has a nice different, and very strong management and trades at a low multiple look at the charts on this one and, you know, i think there's a lot of up side here. do you have to buy pfs >> my find owns both companies, depending on where that liquidity is, but clearly you'll end up have providence financial services when this merger closes >> anton, from billings, montana, to oak ridge, new

jersey at the top of "power lunch," we'll have brian moynihan. chinese president xi jinping is outlining his policies for the next five years. they may have some very big implications for investors all around the world, including the united states. eunice unyoon is in beijing for us >> reporter: they should assume that making china great again is the central task he spoke to two hours in a speech at the opening ceremony for a leadership conference on sunday

president xi had made it quite clear that it would be underpinned, and that that modernization could continue to prioritize national security so to president xi, that means self-reliance, tech supremacy, and military power that is, quote, normalized. he suggested that the main principles would be common prosperity, so that's narrowing the wealth gap, as well as, he said, introducing a standardizing mechanism of wealth accumulation, high-quality development, which many believe will -- and a continue ways of zero covid. he fears the defendant this policy, saying it's provided many major positive results, and also protected people's lives as well as the economy. now, we were supposed to be a snapshot of where the economy stands on tuesday, but q3 gdp

numbers and september economic data has suddenly disappeared from the government's schedule this comes after a september trade data was also delayed last friday, so not a whole lot of official word why this is, but a whole lot of special lace -- specialization it sounds like they still believe that covid zero somehow makes sense. i'm not sure a lot of doctors here would agree with that, but i guess you're not allowed to

disagree >> no, not officially, not publicly the chinese government really doesn't like that especially when it comes to zero covid. also because covid is sew closely linked with president xi jinping. the state media has been argues it's a policy based in science, that this is something that's sustainable, that it is actually a policy that can be done and should be done, and in fact the people's daily had argued that other countries have been able to do it, not because they didn't want to, but because they were unable to so it seems quite clear for a while we're going to see zero covid. the optimists say it might be lasting until another big political conference that will happen in march, and maybe there could be some measures that could ease up on international

travel, but people are quite pessimistic. more and more people have been telling me that it has to do with the personality of president xi, and that it's gotten into a point if you think you're infallible, it's not something you can reverse a decision that you keep painting as something that's so important, a deciding of already made >> that's a fair point it's hard to maybe flip it, but we we have that debate here in the west as well eunice yoon, thank you very much see, i knew she was smiling, even under the mask. we're getting started on this very busy monday coming up. the multidecade bull run on bonds is over. could that actually be good news we'll break it down. third's 1500-point swing,

does it mark the bottom of the market the dow is up 500, right after this it takes a village to support society and businesses have a responsibility to support that village. ♪ ♪ i am peter akwaboah, chief operating officer for technology, operations and firm resilience. when you think about diversity, the employee network group is fundamental to any organization to provide a community and a belonging environment for the employees. they provide an avenue to support employees and ultimately it leads to retention of the best and brightest. the employee network represents the community at large, and it provides a good feedback loop

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let's talk about bonds

bond yields have been driving the stock market and it's been a wild ride. the ten-year yield, was just at 0.5% 2 1/2 years ago it's now up 550% since then. this as bond prices fall random but interesting, this is one of the worst years for bonds and stocks at the same time. but with pain there may be an opportunity. gilbert, good to have you on. >> we're ready to have you in houston. my wife always says, bond king, take out the trash she puts me in my place. >> i did the same thing this morning. i've never met anybody so passionate for the bonds i don't know if i have the energy >> we're ready the things about bonds is they are just beautiful instruments people don't understand -- >> i thought they were boring,

slow, old. >> they're not the create activity of them, whether you can have in the balance sheet structure whether you have a securitized world, you with redirect the cash flows to create whatever instrument that fits the buying community they're really phenomenal instruments. it is true that bonds have had a terrible year this year, but keep in mind we had unusual outsized positive years in 2020 and 2019 in many ways we're just coming back historical context is key. markets are down this year you leave the fannies,ed fretsies in the world here's the

thing. really it's at the credit risk, because it's freddie mac and fannie mae you've had such a huge move in the commitment rate and what's happening with the mortgages is the market is primarily 85% of the index for 30-years, and for a long time we've been in very low rates. what's happened is the 2, 2 1/2s, they're not at an 85, 86 price, and it's extended signif significantly so even to a zero prepayment, this is the worst case possible, you're still yielding above treasuries. if you just get prepayments up a little bit, it's ought gravy to a mortgage-backed securities holder

>> we had a positive carry reference yesterday, now a positive convection. >> as you get above par with prepayments that could go up much more, a prepayment gives you money back at par. here, a prepayment, whether it's anything -- a relocation, death, divorce, anything -- is a good thing. now at a zero you're still yielding above treasury. >> prices arewacked out. >> the main reason why things are racked out i like that phrase -- the gove government owns too many bonds

so that's what's creating these dislocations the best thing the fed can do is get out of the way of the markets. >> first of all, the federal government is the biggest company in the world they own everything. they're in the private sector now, but aren't they selling all that stuff >> they are, but it's very slow. they have caps when you do the mathematics, they're not going to be selling any mortgages, because prepayments are so slow, they're not hitting the count. at the end of the day they're going to need to sell mortgage-backed securities somewhere in the future, but the bleed is way too high. >> quickly, how do we make money in the bond market right now, aside from invest with you. >> i appreciate that the important thing is inflation has peaked or peaking. all the components are rolling over this is a good time. rates have probably peaked, to go into the bond market.

as it relates to the bond market, go as long duration as you can. morality-backed securities are very, very attractive. i don't think we've seen the worst of credit yet. >> maybe not in houston, but we'll see what happens with the price of oil and gas it goes through your veins >> the most important thing is money supply is now growing at almost negative -- or certainly close to zero. that's never been good for the economy. >> we'll see what happens. i love having you on set, by the way. we'll get together in houston. i need another trip back. >> i'm ready police -- please have me again call it the world's fastest financial u-turn what the uk did that's helping

stocks here. all 30 dow stocks are grn.ee we're back right after this. tha. news from the future: you're going to live through that about 10 more times! (laughs) no stress. i just discovered yieldstreet. they vet investments that don't ride the stock market rollercoaster. - [narrator] yieldstreet: private market investing. a kohler home generator never misses a beat. it automatically powers your entire home in seconds. and keeps your family connected. with a heavy duty commercial grade engine and no refueling, even when the power goes out, life rocks on. right now get a free 10-year extended warranty and up to $750 off.

tesla is the big outperformer, having its best sing the day since all way back

in june. tesla is up 7% this is a renewable gas company on the flip side, cano health is plunging the report is cvs is walking away, down 40% right now, obviously it's on pace for the worst day -- if that is not the worth day on record, i don't know what would be the reports are cvs is walking away let's get a check on a news update with tyler mathisen. the ukrainian president will be publishing a collection of

wartime speeches this december in a book titled "a message from ukraine. proceeds will go to his united 24 initiative to coordinate charitable donations to ukraine. jana elementary sits in the floodplain of coldwear creek, which was contaminated during word war ii. it confirms fears previously rised. tonight on "the news with shepard smith," reaction from the community and the school board's plan. and the rapper formerly known as kanye west is offering to buy the conservative social media platform parler. this comes off ye, as he calms

himself was locked out of facebook and instagram price details are not being disclosed. brian, back to you. billionaires buying social media, seems to be a thing. >> yay yay. stay with us - oh, the stock market is doing that fun thing again. news from the future: you're going to live through that about 10 more times! (laughs) no stress. i just discovered yieldstreet. they vet investments that don't ride the stock market rollercoaster. - [narrator] yieldstreet: private market investing. the new iphone 14 pro is amazing. the camera is incredible. and you'll get our best deal. nice, but i can't accept it. unless every business gets the best deal. on every iphone. uh, actually... we already do that. the plumber with the ascot! big bjorn, little bjorn, too!

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welcome back one big question seems to befuddle investors -- have stocks bottomed? good question. ari wall says last thursday's record reversal was the signal, major averages dropped about 2% or mo on the red-hot cpi data before ripping higher. it was the biggest point swing for the dow since march of 2020. wald believes that signaled a,

quote, textbook bottom i don't know why i'm quoting him. ari, i'm just reading quotes from you back to you [ laughter ] thanks for coming on. >> thanks. why isn't this just some short covering head fake >> always possible the key reversal day, that is an indication of downside exhaustion it's not just that, but what's adding to its i have feats, which is four things one, it occurred at a very important level. 3500 is the 50% retracement of the prior bull market, miswhere the majorities of -- number two, deeply oversold market cycle indicators, breadth and

sentiment, even with what we saw in 2009. point three, it occurred with indications of downside selling intensity verse abating, typically that type of divergence, and all this, the final appointed, occurring with the emergence of bullish seasonal the missing piece, of course, is interest rates, which has really driven the sell-off. i would like to see that -- so there is that lingering concern, but the long-term investor, we see this as opportunity. >> where are the confirmation signs? what do we need to see >> let's start with the ten-year yield, watching 3.5% that was the june peak, so if you fall below the june peak, that's an indication of a failed breakout, and exhaustion there in the rate market as well

if you start to move above that 200-day average, a lot of things will flip and then you have the emergence of a bull market >> what would be a sign of failure, aside from stocks going back down, of course >> there's always the -- perhaps if you're worried about -- if you can't be in and out, you want to wait for the lagging confirmation, but deep an eye on the june low, around 36, 37. we're back above there today as long as we're above it, you have the setup for a failed breakdown, but you're going to be looking for, really not just the level on the downside, but if we start to see selling intensity. that would have to start the bottoming process. >> it's monday, let's be in a good move. left us with some opportunity.

chipotle, what makes it look attractive to you? >> the breadth of stocks have bottomed here, if not the stock market we are seeing improvement in breadth. names that broke out during that summer rally, thatreversed their decline. while the market was sliding in the third quarter, it developed more of a consolidation, which is back to the 200-day average our analyst likes it as a top idea we call it an op-code trifecta it sets up well. this is a great name to what we think is a market recovery. >> i hope you're right a lot of people out there are hoping you are right. >> thanks, brian why the uk's big turn on the fiscal policy is helping stocks there. and could it be one of the

shortest tenure ever, why liz truss may already be on her way out. - oh, the stock market is doing that fun thing again. news from the future: you're going to live through that about 10 more times! (laughs) no stress. i just discovered yieldstreet. they vet investments that don't ride the stock market rollercoaster. - [narrator] yieldstreet: private market investing.

- oh, the stock market is doing that fun thing again. news from the future: you're going to live through that about 10 more times! (laughs) no stress. i just discovered yieldstreet.

they vet investments that don't ride the stock market rollercoaster. - [narrator] yieldstreet: private market investing. go welcomeback maybe this is the flip-flop heard around the world the new finance minister is scrapping all the planned changes to fax and fiscal policy from the prime minister. now there are already calls for her to step down, even though she's only been in office for six weeks. this could be maybe the shorter tenures in the history of prime minister s we do have sky news that there are indeed four

torrie members of parliament that have put in official letters for her departures those are motions of no confidence against her whether those will succeed is truly dependent on eventualities. liz truss is still set to be in office for at least a year, but the committee that is said to rule on that could turn that rule around. a whole lot, and quite interesting enough she wasn't in parliament here today, where she was expected to answer a few questions. he seemed to be detained for an

emergency meeting, saying there was a concise reasons as to why she want here. a lot of speculation could be rife with regard to that, but we haven't heard word from the prime minister since friday when she delivered her last announcement, but we have heard from jeremy hunt, the finance minister every day since friday. thank you for the important story. up next, could new york and boston actually run out of diesel fuel this winter? they could we'll tell you why, next

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.. welcome back certainly there's a lot of energy-related headlines today from bp buying renewble company to harold hamm trying to take his company private. there's also something happening that not getting much attention, which is the real possibility of some diesel fuel shortages in the northeast this winter. that would be a big deal

joining us is the cofounder of oil price information services tom, i was following some of your research last week, we talked so much about europe and their problems, it feels like the northeast, new england in razor's edge here. >> we are on the razor's edge, and the reality is we've been moving closer to that in the last few years a lot of the big storage terminals, places that would have a million barrels of diesel or heating oil, have been shut down or they have been repurposed to sort of, you know, general warehouses and so forth. so, we have a just in time inventory situation, and with europe, really, the big kind of question about what's going to happen between now and december 5th. we're not sure if we're going to have enough, and i would venture to say that we're seeing, you know, just absolutely burlesque refinery margins

if you make diesel right now, in the northeast, you're making, like, $100 to $105 a barrel on it, so it's in short supply. it's even in short supply in the midwest, and god knows what $5 diesel costs for farmers are going to translate to in ag products >> and you got a mississippi river that is very low in the northern part of the river, which, by the way, is a heavy traffic area for diesel fuel barges we've seen them coming, it could be an artificial shutdown. what would happen, tom, if we get this if it's just a day or a couple of days, would it be that big of a deal >> i think it would be a big deal i think it will be a big deal for the heating oil business people forget that there's a lot of folks in the northeast that still use heating oil as opposed to natural gas or propane. and if you get a cluster of degree days, somewhere between, let's say, thanksgiving and valentine's day, you're going to have a problem under normal circumstances, but you look at some of these markets in new

england, and the middle atlantic, they're running on inventories not seen in the last 40 years, and 40 years ago was the last time we saw global inventories this low, and we've added 3.6 billion people in that time so, it's pretty daunting my suggestion is we may get through this next month and then we get some refineries in the northeast returning, along with some other places, but winter is going to be very, very scary >> it will be scary, and there's a lot of talk about possible export restrictions, tom, in the united states, kind of going around some very prominent members of congress have talked about limiting our ability to export either refined product and/or crude oil around the world. and it sounds easy, right? that's a great idea. we need it here, you know, forget about it. well, the problem is that refining something in houston doesn't mean you can get it to

new york it may be a lot easier to send it from houston to rotterdam than new york because of archaic shipping regulations >> i think the jones act is as close to something that's unassailable for politicians as could be that's the act that allows you to ship in non-american tankers from port to port. again, i think it's a problem. we may get a mild winter, and that may solve our problems, but we're going to be dealing with this from the winters now on this is not an energy transition that ends its crisis in the winter of 2022 or '23. it's going to prevail for a number of years. and on the export ban, you know, the refiners will say, again, that it will hurt their overall production, because they export some cats and dogs in terms of oil products that we don't use here, and that helps them maintain high runs >> you're bringing up such an important point. it's getting through this winter

is important, but it's next winter that everybody i talk to is really worried about. tom, thanks for coming on. really appreciate it >> thanks, brian still ahead, china's liter, xi jinping, all but guaranteed to be nominated, in air quotes, for a third term during this week's chinese communist party congress and u.s. intelligence now issuing a dire warning about the potential impact on american business eamon javers has that next ♪ ♪ mercedes-benz is turning electric... completely on its head. bringing legendary design... and state-of-the-art technology... to a fully-electric suv. the all-new, all-electric eqb from mercedes-benz.

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♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ as always, one more thing before we go, and that is a rare warning from u.s. intelligence about china's growing threat to american business both here and abroad eamon javers has more. >> that's right. with the news out of beijing over the weekend about xi jinping taking a new term, leading intelligence officials and business analysts are really focused on the threat now of the possibility of a chinese invasion of taiwan, and what

that would mean for the u.s. economy and for the world. i spoke to michael orlando, he's the top counterintelligence official in the u.s. office of the director of national intelligence he gave us a rare warning from the u.s. intelligence community directly to corporate america. >> i think the one industry that causes me concern and others is semiconductors, given how much is produced there and how hard it is to reshore that, the amount of money it takes and the time it takes. and so that's why i think it's important we start thinking about those contingency plans now, because it would be tough for both economies >> so, given that, i asked him if companies should start canceling their contacts in taiwan here's what he said. >> i wouldn't say cancel contracts in taiwan, but working with our allies to figure out where else we can go in case we lose that capacity it goes back to basic risk management, which is, you have to diversify, and if you have too many eggs in one basket, that's probably not good >> but cybersecurity and geopolitical expert dmitri told me sees a more dire and

immediate impact >> if there's a war over taiwan, that means the end of all business in china, so american ceos need to start planning for that possibility i think it's not a certainty, but the likelihood is very high. so, those that are making ten-year plans to be in china may be in for a rude awakening >> so, brian, the bottom line here is the message from intelligence experts is that the time for american companies to be thinking through their china divestment strategies is right now because there's at least the possibility of an event on the horizon. >> don't invest in china at all. that's kind of the message i'm hearing. am i reading that wrong? >> yeah, look, i mean, michael orlando, who is the top intelligence official on counterintelligence for the u.s., his advice to american investors was, think very hard about what you're doing in terms of putting money in to china, particularly, he said, on quantum computing. he said he doesn't really want to see private equity or venture capital money from the united states going into chinese quantum computing companies,

because he said it's against the self-interest of the american companies who are investing in the first place. those are the companies that are going to crack your own encryption in a couple years time he said people need to be thinking in those terms. >> big story eamon javers, appreciate it. we'll see you tomorrow that does it for us here on the exchange i'll see you on fast minoney at 5:00 p.m., but "power lunch" starts right now ♪ all right, good afternoon, everybody, and welcome to "power lunch. i'm tyler mathisen along with con at the contessa brewer, the dow back over 30,000. how about that earnings season, so far, not turning out as bad as expected bank of america reporting better-than-expected results, the stock higher by 5% the company's ceo, brian moynihan, is about to join us. plus, china