term view, it's kind of basing, going sideways a massive amount of upside headroom to where it fell off the cliff in the mid 300s last time kind of a fascinating almost binary outcome. >> the old 700 days seem so long ago. we'll see you tomorrow in overtime when it all breaks. that's mike santoli. "fast money" begin news. yes, it does right now on "fast money," market whiplash. from thursday's rip your face off rally to the friday fade to today's big bounce should you brace for even more volatile days ahead? in china, xi cements control. his grip absolute. the next few years may mean it's a don't touch market we'll explain why. and later on, a new record in the u.s. oil patch, sort of a bullish day for banks, roadblocks has met sized move and netflix streaming higher ahead of earnings. hello, everybody i'm not melissa lee. i'm brian sullivan

melissa had tonight and tomorrow night off. live from the nasdaq market site and on your desk tonight, we have tim seymour, karen finerman, dan nathan and guy adami. let us begin at the beginning with a major rally on wall street the nasdaq surging nearly 3.5% today. and that move, my friends brings the nasdaq back to positive for the month. huh. the nasdaq 100, it was the best day since july the s&p 500 up more than 2.5 as long-time bear mike wilson of morgan stanley now says the index could see a bear market bounce that takes it back above 4,000. take a look at the moves in big cap tech amazon jumping more than 6%. adding almost 70 billion to its market cap today what will jeff bezos buy it's now 12% above its june lows and does today's monday surge suggest the bottom may finally be in? with stocks, we've got a lot to talk about is that your piece all right, dan? we're all on cam race, oh,

sorry. >> doing one of these things all good i don't know where guy adami is in some bunker somewhere, but i'm going the start with him guy, let's play dealers choice joker's wild what was that game no whammies. i just conflated shows if you had to sort of pin down what's going on, sort of a bear market bounce, the uk may be flip-flopping with what they're doing, i doubt it was mike wilson, but maybe it was brian wilson, who knows? what would be the rationale if you had to point to one thing as to why we've got this big change in a couple of trading sessions? >> pet sounds is one of the most overrated albums of all time i'm just going to put that out there, number one. >> oh, come on >> a lot of it -- >> brian wilson. i think a lot of it is mike wilson listen, mike wilson has been early, but he has been right as well so when he makes a call like that, you have to take notice. i think part of it is what's going on in the uk, without

question there seems to be some coming to the senses, maybe we've assuaged some concerns there. and i think it's just a confluence of events i'll say this. this looks remarkably like the middle of june of this year when we went on basically an 18% rally from i think the 16th of june to the middle of august now i don't think we're going to see an 18% rally but i do think this is going to be one of of those classic bear market rallies that has a lot of people scratching their head the answer, the earlier part of your question, by no means do i think we're out of the woods >> yeah. i mean, it's an interesting thing, tim, to compare to it the summer, because we forget. we had that big summer rally it was hey, all systems go suddenly that thing turned august hit stocks turned back down. is this a real turn or just kind of the same thing? >> terrible positioning, terrible sent. a dynamic here where you got a reversal in the uk by the way, people who didn't think the central banks were not still in charge, they're still

in charge. and let's be clear, that turnaround in the uk is a lot to do with a policy war internally. the dollar reverse maybe the dollar put in a double top. again, the uk may have been that blowoff top that you were looking for. but is this the buildup? we're ten weeks from christmas, folks. this the beginning of our seasonal rally you talk about the june lows we've been comparing market levels to the june lows. we've been thrashing around this 3600, down to 3490 and change, and we're at that long-term support level which is the 200-week average and depending how you want to look at it, we haven't really broken through yet there is a lot of people feel this is the kind of support and if you get relief on the dollar these are the dynamics we also had bank earnings. which i know we're going to spend time on. the consumer is not dead yet if you think about where we are sentiment and positioning, this has been one of the greatest traders markets of all time this year i realize that's easy to say in hindsight. i've said it so many times in terms of all these big moves we've had on the p

i think we're another one of the moves. >> dan >> god old knows. >> gal as charged? is the uk turn market? >> clearly today the way we closed friday afternoon, that was about as nasty as any of us could have expected because if you think about over the last couple of weeks, we have a couple of decent rallies off of lows remember two weeks ago, that monday, tuesday. 5% rally off of a new 52-week low, gave it all back here so when you think about how we closed friday after how we opened with some of those bank earnings, that really felt like it had the potential to follow through. i think tim is spot-on when you think about how poor sentiment and how nervous people are. you saw some of the data about retail options buying last week. new opening trade, three-time puts to that of calls. it tells you how nervous people were i was doing that relative to stocks that i was long it just didn't feel particularly healthy. that being said we have the ten-year u.s. treasury yield closing above 4% maybe the dollar made a double top. maybe it did we want to get into earnings

really soon here when we think of the dollar, quarter over quarter, where a lot of the u.s. multinationals, last august, the dollar is up 5% i don't think any of these c level suites have the data to project where they think the dollar is going to be relative to the uncertainty of their businesses i think that's going to be really important to me, all this grinding at 52-week lows tells me that we're going to move like sharply one way or the other i just obviously don't know. but if you think about it, most rallies have been sold since we had those august highs it's going to take some sort of fundamental shift i think to have a sustainable rally from here >> wouldn't bit nice if this were the bottom? but i don't think it is. god only knows i think that this is the beginning of a nice rally, i think. the positioning friday afternoon i think people were really pretty bearish and so that set up for kind of, you know, a little bit of -- a little bit of a bounce without much to sell into it so this was a really nice move

i do think the banks matter. we'll get to that more i'm not really sure what has changed. i thought some of the rhetoric over the weekend from china would actually be received fairly negatively. that didn't seem to be the case. but -- >> i don't want to go to the uk bond market stuff which nobody got, guilty as charged >> we adjust for that. >> i'm never coming back to the show >> i guess -- >> uk matters. >> that's right. and i'll answer your question. thank you very much for having me on, karen, which is the uk at least right now hasn't imploded. and they're talking about the pension system melting down. so maybe we're moving that fear has helped >> go ahead. >> yeah, again, the uk's -- the bank of england basically said don't worry, baby, everything will be all right. that's what it was they gave their banks until friday to clean up some of the balance dynamics

the british pound has rallied over 10% in three weeks. the policy air and the fear of that around the world what had as much to do with the last 5 to 10% lower in the s&p it's around the fed of course. but it's around other central bank taos that w.h.o. pressing the flesh. you can see the end moving to stratospheric, really numeric, but great lows against the dollar this is the dynamic that we're in and i just i think markets get a place to take a breath here. >> isn't it annoying, guy adami, that the market and people's investments are being sort of held hostage by a group of pretty much unelected technocrats in d.c. and london and tokyo who there's no -- what did muhammad alerrian tweet tonight? we need a fed but there is no accountability here. they can screw everything up and nobody do anything except maybe

lose their jobs before their term ends. it's the tough way to have a stock market that's supposed to be about value and earnings and cash flow, right >> you're teeing the ball up for me so allow me to pull my driver out and pit hit it about 350 what you speak of is true. i will say, those same investors were being held hostage for the 13 years prior when, you know, unless you're talking about the fall of 2018 or those few months of covid, the market did nothing but go higher. and nobody seemed to care then when the market was going higher being held hostage by the same people that you speak. so when it goes lower, everybody now wants to sort of blame them. but when it's going higher, they're all geniuses they're the same group of people, by the way, that have made mistakes all along the way. we're just paying for it now to your point about unelected officials with no accountability, 100% a hundo, as the kids say

>> muhammad alerrian tweeted that out, i don't know, an hour ago. >> it's not some dingdong internet dude like me saying it. it's muhammad alerian who is saying these people basically screwed it up and there is nothing we can do. and now to your point, we have to live with their fallout. >> so what is the fallout, though hold on, guy when you think about it right here, we have the s&p down 22% we have housing market which literally went parabolic a year and a half ago that's cooling off a little bit. we have unemployment which is still near 40-year lows that hasn't really ticked up. what is the big problem here we have risk assets that have cooled off the rolexs that were trading in the after market at two times retail, they've come in. i guess my point is the s&p was up 28% last year, people so it's down 22% we're still here, you know what i mean >> i agree we're up 40% in the past five years. your point is well taken but i wonder, it's the adrenaline shot i think probably lured a lot of people in >> right that's what they do.

>> what adrenaline shot? >> all the fiscal and monetary stimulus got a lot of people that weren't professional investor, newbies, right, got crushed probably >> i just think we're at a place here where markets haven't had a chance to digest because they haven't had a chance to see in terns report which we may get in the third quarter. maybe don't get them until the fourth quarter, the impact of where 300 to 400 basis points of federate hikes almost overnight have their impact. the consumer is fine right now let's be really clear. there is nothing wrong with the consumer so we're playing for where are we going to be in '23. and people that are talking about a recession are not talking about one or two quarters in most cases they're talking about four, five, six quarters in succession, which we haven't even started yet really. for the markets, which discount and are discounting mechanism, you have opportunities to change these enormous sentiment dynamics and i think that's what we're going to continue the get. i don't think we're getting the reality check until we get into '23. >> all right let's bring in a guest who has been waiting patiently through

all, this probably champing at the bit. i believe it is champing. >> not chomping? >> champing. chris harvey, wells fargo. you heard our discussion i'm not going to ask you to slam the fed or agree with the fed. but no matter how good earnings may come in over the next couple of weeks, now good the guidance is, will the fed still matter more or have we gotten to the point where now everybody know what's the fed is going to do, earnings will make or break this market >> i don't think earnings make or break the market. what earnings do is they call -- they start a rally and it's just a trading rally, as you pointed out before. it's a rent, not own type situation. what the fed does, the market doesn't stop going down. we don't make a bottom until something breaks in the capital markets and the fed pivots, or earnings come down not 2, 3, 4, 5%, but 10%. we're still sitting in front of things that are yet to unfold. and what we're looking at is just the cost of capitalists has gone higher. fundamentals are still okay. they'll get worse and that's the

problem. >> what do you mean until something breaks. >> you talked about the uk if you look at the uk, it looked like the pound was going to break. it looked like things the you're reis also down it could be a collapse of a currency it could be a collapse of sentiment. it could be something in the ukraine. >> what about inflation going down >> inflation i think inflation is going down, and i think if you were ever going to use a transitory word, you would use it right here right now. a year ago we were saying i've never seen prices this high as this people were coming -- and demand twice as high. people were raising prices 5, 10, 15%, and people were saying i'll take two, i'll take three now they're saying whoa, wait a minute, i'm not going pay that for that now is a time where inflation does come down, what i think we need the worry about more is why are we stuck on this two% inflation rate is two or four as long as it's stable the right rate? i'm not sure it is >> if you think about inflation

and goods inflation and the service side of inflation, we're saying all the time we need to see unemployment and whatever that level is that the fed isn't going to say it outright but it's probably north of 5%. that's really the inflation to worry about, isn't it? that's the consumer at this point that is making more money. and in some sense able to ride out this storm >> i think it's a difference between the inflation the fed sees and the inflation that you and i see, right the fed sees something, hey, cpi isn't cracking cpi is plateauing around 6%. we need to get it down we need our credibility back we have to get it down when you and i look at things, what what you see are the underlying fundamentals are starting to roll over. that the things that are going to pull down inflation are rolling over, whether it's interest rates, demand or supply chain. at the end of the day, inflation is going to come down. how quickly is a big question, and the way the fed reacts to it is more important. >> so chris, when you think about what brian was just saying before, like people got lured in they were buying everything, whether it was crypto or nfts or

stocks the list goes on or unprofitable tech companies that have recently gone public i think a lot of the air has come out of that i think we can all agree that trade is done. when we're talking about the broader markets, you look at the s&p 500 down 22% that's not so bad. you think of the market as a monolith, as equities across different spectrums. like is there a way that if the average decline in the s&p 500 in the post world war era was about 35% during a recession, let's say we are in a recession at some point, do we have to go down 35% >> the answer is, no we don't have to go down 10, 15, 5% but until the fed pivots, what's happening now? the cost of capital is going higher so there is a duration trait that's pushing prices down excuse me. that's pushing stock prices down more importantly we haven't gotten to the fundamentals rolling over now the fundamentals have to roll over. i think we are going to a recession. i think numbers do have to come down until that occurs, we're not going to wash things out

can you make money yes, you can make money renting things, not owning things. >> what are we renting, then >> one of the things we've been talking about and talking about to our clients is momentum now it's nothing exciting. it's nothing really sophisticated, but it's things that are working, stocks that are working, sectors that are work willing continue to work. what you want to do is also avoid things that are broken you don't want to go bottom fishing. you're not getting paid for it and you have to have this very simple approach, chart looks good, chart looks bad. >> oil and gas looks good. >> oil and gas does look good. that's if you look at the momentum index, oil and gasa big part of the momentum index there. >> you go. chris harvey, wells fargo. thank you. shooting from the hip here appreciate it. guy, let's talk about this dan referenced the average drop in the s&p during the recession i think is about 35% i saw some data today that the average time the s&p goes down is 3818 days.

that's the average we're day maybe 290 of the decline on the s&p 500 does it feel like -- not not saying call it bottom, but does it feel like we're closer to the end than the beginning >> well, i know there is an answer for that question that was deep, by the way. and let me address dan quickly before i answer that the fallout can be measured in the market yeah, it's not a big deal. 25%, 30% what you can't measure in terms of the fallout of this reckless fed is what's done to the lower and middle class who got screwed on the way in and are now getting royally screwed on the way out with inflation they don't win here. the wealthy people win on both sides, number one. number two, yeah, i'm not going to be one of these to call bottom i think it's a tradeable level and with a we're seeing now is er eerily reminiscent of what we saw in june. the math suggests, and the math being $200 worth of earnings, maybe 210 with a 15 or so multiple that we're probably

staring between 3200 and 2400 in the eyes and in the terms of the s&p 500. >> guy, passion from guy adami and true, inflation is the most regressive of taxes. all right. on deck, bank earnings are under way, and they are shining some light on something we just talked about that is the consumer we'll hit it coming up plus, energy continuing to rip higher, adding to its relatively good year but can you still count on these numbers to climb at the year's end? we'll dig in, when "fast money" returns. we're back in two.

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we dealing with issues all over the place absolutely that's what the fed try to do. but right now as you see the third quarter and the first october, the consumer is hanging in there that was bank of america ceo brian moynihan on power lunch today after the company's better than expected earnings number. bank posting a 24% jump in net interest income. meantime, goldman sachs planning a reorg of its business, one for trading and investment banking, another for wealth and asset management, one focused on asset clients. set to report their earnings

tomorrow dan, your take on what we've seen and heard for the big banks so far. >> we saw morgan stanley, the way it acted after results on friday wasn't particularly great. when he we think about where, and karen has been identifying as tim also, that interest margin was going to be a thing for these money center banks but the investment banks have lots of challenges in all parts of their business. after record years in 2020 and 2021 so that stock wasn't particularly great on friday goldman sachs announced its reorganize before the reearnings tomorrow morning i are so suspect there is going to be issues in the golden quarter, if they're getting that news out ahead of time here too. again, these stocks are also probably well positioned to trade themselves out of the situation that we are in 2022. if you think that we're going have a better economy in the back half of 2023, i probably am more interested in morgan and goldman than i would be in the money center banks than i am thinking out to next year. >> i thought that bank of america quarter was fantastic. we talked about net interest

income being great it was phenomenal. but so many parts of their business were good, and also so many parts of their business people thought would be terrible were lower for sure. but they did an incredible job and it was little bit better than it looked i thought moynihan was really confident. it made jp morgan's earnings not look so great. it was almost a hold my beer, jamie, let me go do this earnings call. it was really impressive. >> battle of the good hair. >> yeah, they do both have good hair. and gorman not that that matters in any way. >> no stress in the job. >> okay. so tim, agreed the numbers looked good on every service. this was a $50 stock in february it's a $34 stock now so the numbers were good but the market doesn't seem to care. >> so what we started to see going into bank numbers that were already cutting that was actually positive because citibank, was ubs cut it

and still leaves 50% upside. bank of america, if you look at a couple of the numbers that came out today, people have double on the stock. i would just -- jamie dimon versus brian moynihan. this was sunny skies versus cloudy skies the meteorology dynamics, he was so sunny on the consumer and the dynamics that he is seeing and the net interest income is something that i think money center banks will continue to have the flip side of that, we saw it in a couple of regional banks, the outflow of deposits, charles schwab reported today. they saw deposits down the competition from within banks is something we have yet the see. there may be more net interest income but the net interest margin may be coming down this may be as good as it gets chase and jp morgan and bank of america and wells fargo, they're not really paying you for those deposit just yet they're going to have to or they're going to compete and they're going to lose some of those deposits >> guy, quick comment on the banks. >> in february of 2018, mtb

traded up to 194, fell off a cliff. look where we are now. you either have a mother of all double tops or this is going to break out. their earning growth is such it might actually break to the upside some of these regional banks that we rarely talk about are actually doing extraordinarily well >> well said guy, thank you all right. there is a lot more "fast" to come here's what's coming up next >> pump it up. energy drilling into even more gains as the group's spectacular year grinds on but will the good times keep flowing? the details next plus, gdp pause. trying to delay key nick data as growth concerns come into focus. so whare there still opportunite abroad the traders break it down, next. you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we're back right aft ts.erhi in any business, you ride the line between numbers and people.

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welcome back despite opec's big production cut nearly two weeks ago, oil is actually lower than where it was after the meeting. this as production in texas' permean basin hits a new high. keep in mind as a nation we are still a million barrels a day below 2019 highs but the permean is rocking energy stocks, same thing as the market today they ran baker hughes, devon, halliburton the biggest winners. pretty much every stock was up any way. guy adami, energy is one place in the green overall you and have i been talking about schlumberger for years it seems to be -- i mean, the numbers are going to be big. but again, the market has not given it a lot of love in the past 12 months

it's kind of weird. >> no, listen, tim has been on this i'll say first of all, brian, you do a remarkable job in this space, and i mean that sincerely. i'll say this. we talked about it last week, we brought it up. very quietly, exxonmobil, chevron and conocophillips are all within a earshot of not just their 52-week high, the all-time high that's happening under the radar. if oil would just stay here and go nowhere for the next six months, the setup for them, i still think it's extraordinarily good i believe what's happened with a lot of these names as the commodity got whacked and dan had a tremendous call in the spring, i think people sold first, asked questions later with the underlying equities, thinking here we go again. the problem is these are just better companies they're better capitalized, they're better run, and quite frankly they're probably better in terms of valuations i still like the space. >> and the free cash flow yields across the space, if you're an investor, the important things the capital return and actually where their payout ratios are

extraordinary. so any from 12 to 15% for the biggest integrated oil companies. conoco trades almost like an emp company. we've averaged 300, 400, $500 a barrel already most of these oil companies are being valued at less than $70 a barrel oil at some point you'll have to push these higher. i'll say this about the cut. we know they're going to cut more likely to quota levels they can actually make. it's probably 1.1. opec is not pro taye this is the first i time they have been proactive. they're usually very reactive. they want oil prices higher. and if you look at inventories around the world, we haven't been this low on inventories around the world since the '80s. this is why oil is staying here and going higher while energy prices -- >> it's not just oil it's distillates, all the things we make with oil, inventory is at 30, 40, 50-year lows. i'm boring myself already. i've asked for this graphic 100

times. i'll ask it gwen i think tim is making a really important point. guys, if committee can throw up a five or ten-year chart of oil against the oih, one of these big etfs to tim's point, karen, where the stocks are traying is when oil was like at 50 bucks >> right. >> the last time oil was at this price level, some of these etfs were at a thousand dollars they're now at 250 but maybe that's esg maybe nobody cares >> i think it's maybe -- it's peaking now. this is somewhat temporary we'll see how the russia thing falls. >> we've seen it before. >> we've seen it before. autos just stood there for a listening, long time i don't know i'm long the oih because i think oil doesn't need to go up. can even go down a little, as long as it doesn't drop, period turks last time crude oil was at this price, the oih was at a thousand dollars a share. >> where was the dollar? >> the dollar versus crude the last time the dollar rallied

like this crude sold off 65% >> is that your point? >> what i'm saying -- >> if the stock stays big for any reason, a whole host of reasons on the macro level that none of russ smart enough to figure out, ultimately, that's a tax on everywhere outside the u.s., right? will see slower growth, maybe less demand, throw in the esg stuff. maybe it's peak oil, guys. >> we've been at peak dollar and the fact that oil prices have hung in there is extraordinary. >> you know why oil has hung in there because of the supply-demand dynamics, what's happened in ukraine. >> this is true. but i think -- i know we got to go, but i think the point i was trying to make is we've already seen this dislocation between the price of oil and the price of the stocks. to your point, yes, the currency is going to impact the commodity. but the stocks are acting like oils. >> they have to bring up their target prices because oil prices are averaging 105 bucks on the

year they're going to have to at least make their '23 level that much higher than they already had it part of it is the math of where we are on the calendar. >> and buybacks. you would think, right >> what else are they going to do with their money. >> what else are they going to do with their money. >> they're giving it back. >> that's point, though. they didn't do this before and they're run differently. and that's the mandate >> they got to give the money back, buybacks because the government likes that they want the oil companies to -- oh, wait a minute. that's a wrong show. coming up, gdp postponed china delaying the release of key economic data. so is the country slowdown maybe worse than we thought? talk than coming up. and forget cooking at home restaurant stocks seeing some of the biggest moves higher in the past week. unconfirmed reports of guy adami and family at a s sizzler in

par parsnipny. >> easy, easy. welcome back to earth. thanks, it was pretty life changing.

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all right. welcome back another check on the market. stocks ripping higher to kick off their week if you're just joining us here on cnbc, maybe waking up in guam, good morning

the dow jumping more than 550 points the s&p surging more than 2.5% the nasdaq leading the charge, up nearly 3.5. by the way, the nasdaq's best single day since all the way back in july tesla and amazon seeing their best days also since july. and discretionary names like caesar's entertainment, itsy and expedia also seeing outsized gains. all right. moving on. china abruptly delaying the release of its latest gross domestic product report with just one day's notice for the market it's a highly unusual move it comes during one of the most important meetings on china's political calendar that is the communist party congress, which happens every five years president xi expected to win an unprecedented third term as the country's leader here now to break down what this means for the markets and more, cnbc contributor fred kemp he is the president and ceo of the atlantic council i know the polls had xi just barely ahead, fred it was a hotly contested race,

but i think xi is going to pull it out by the slimmest of margin how surprised of you, sarcasm aside by what's probably going to be a lifetime appointment as president? >> well, you can't be surprised by the appointment but what's interesting to watch is the appointments around him in a democratic party political process, he would have a problem right now. his zero covid policy hasn't worked his economy has been slowing down his aggressive policy internationally hasn't worked. it's backfired and it's cracked down on private sector and particularly technology companies has also fed the slowdown and then his embracing of vladimir putin, that's got to not be very popular among the party faithful as well but he's got total control he is a one-man band here. and so he will get a third term, but he'll get a third term under much more difficult economic situation than when he came in >> i'm trying to understand,

fred, and please help us understand what's going on over there, okay. just today it didn't get any attention. it should have chinese government told that they are not allowed to sell liquefied natural gas. they were selling to it europe that's terrible news for europe, by the way the covid zero it doesn't seem to be working except it crushed the economy. and they seem to be just becoming more insular to time when they were supposed to be more open and welcoming of western capital. what's the goal here nothing seems to make sense unless they just want to be their own economy maybe with a little tie to russia, maybe a little tie over here to india, and that's it. >> they want to be successful economically, but it's not as important to president xi jinping as being idealogically pure we have some trouble, i'm sure viewers will have trouble thinking that a leader of our times is serious about marxism and lennonism, but he is

if you look back to the 1970s, deng xiaoping talked about how theory had to go out the window and they had to be more pragmatic. he said that in a 1981 party speech now what you're seeing is president xi has put theory back into practice again. and so the ideology is important. he has moved politics and he has moved the economy to the marx system, the leninist left, and moved his national policy and national security to the nationalist right. so you see a whole new form of government let's call it marcist nationalism. that's what we're seeing unfold in front of us what comes with that is much more control over his -- certainly over his market, over private sector in his market so we've seen a reduction of foreign investment as a share of gdp to 20, 21% last year from 30% ten years ago. and that probably will continue to decline >> hey, fred, it's tim

the private companies at the expense of the state companies by any measure, state-run companies anywhere in the world are inefficient and not the innovators and yet china is looking to compete in the 20th -- 21st century, excuse me, everything on seiber to the internet to nanotechnology how do you reconcile this? but i guess the question is are we ever going to get to a place where the chinese government recognizes they need to pull back and let the private enterprise flourish in china, even if it's not u.s. companies? >> so we've been looking at this at the atlantic council with rhodium group. and a lot of people were watching his speech, president xi's speech yesterday, two-hour speech to see if there were any signs that he would move things back into a reformist direction. certainly, that's what foreign investors are telling him and that's what his own economy is telling him. it says your state companies at best are 80% as productive as a private company. for the last ten years, they

have increased -- they have increased productivity in china 0.6% per year. the previous decade it was three times as much. private productivity is not growing. in this new ideological approach to the world, they think they can get enough economy, can get enough efficiency, can get enough growth. they have to control their technology, their own technology more and not depend as much on outside technology and if that, if the trade-off is more social and political control for a little bit less growth, i think it's a risk that president xi at the moment seems willing to take. >> unbelievable. fred kempe at the atlantic council, thank you karen, is china uninvestable >> i think so. >> it's becoming that way. >> yeah. because there are many people who thought that this would be the pivot here, right, once he is in. >> once he has the power, he should loosen up >> once he has the power, he can do all the things that are working well i thought the lack of data was very interesting why didn't they just insteadof delaying that important data, why didn't they make it up and have it be positive.

that was interesting to me >> and they're doubling down on their covid zero policy. >> which is surprising too. >> which is probably why natural gas has dropped every day for the last couple of weeks and is the lowest level in a couple of years. all right. coming up, looks like the gains are back on the menu restaurant stocks heating up lately so what stocks should you look at in the restaurant space, if any? we'll talk about it. and a huge day for roadblock. shares surging after user growth data we'll talk about roblox and restaurants, but not together, because that would be gross and weird. we're back right after this.

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welcome back big moves in restaurant stocks over the past week you've got brinker, bj's, cracker barrel, and more, all big games. pippa stevens has the moves on these deals. it doesn't sound like there is a lot of recession fears in restaurants right now. >> that's ite. we've seen out performance from the full-service restaurants specifically that's blooming brands, texas roadhouse, cheesecake factory, bj's and brinker international all advanced and are solidly

higher over the past week with bj's leading those gains jeffrey's andy bearish says the recent strength stems in part from investors betting the worst of surging input costs are now behind us. commodity prices which had been a major headwind before the restaurant industry have started to ease. last quarter, beef and pork prices declined year-over-year, according to data from bernstein. now coffee, milk, wheat and cheese are still elevated compared to 2021, but they've also started to trend lower. and company-owned restaurants like the full service names are more susceptible as a high commodity prices since they have to absorb all of those costs but looking forward, bearish is said things are shaping up to be noticeably better in the fourth quarter, but of course recession fears always a wild card there. >> right now trading pretty well pippa stevens, thank you very much guy adami, weird space everybody is calling for a recession. i don't know if you go out,

sizzler or whatever, restaurants are packed >> you mentioned the road house or something in parsippany that i was spotted at >> remaking it by the way. can you believe that gyllenhaal >> you know what i'm talking about. everyone is saying if the consumer is going to go, the restaurant is going to go first. isn't that the first thing with travel that gets cut >> yeah, except that some of these restaurants are actually suited for the environment that we find ourselves in, i think. look, mcdonald's reports on the 27th they trade at 22 times next year's numbers which historically for them is actually pretty reasonable, i would submit, although higher than a market multiple i think names like mcdonald's, and dare i say it, chipotle mexican grill that sold off some $200 over the last couple of weeks into their earnings i think on the 25th, both look pretty interesting to me so you're right. but there are certain places that do extraordinarily well in this environment >> karen >> well, you know, if you're listening to a kroger and whoever, their business is good.

it seemed to me at the expense of some of these restaurants so between the inflation, although people addressed that some of the food costs are coming down, the labor issue is still there. i don't know i have no exposure to the space. >> dan, any take on restaurants? >> what's interesting about the story, listening to pippa, it really lines up what miner han is saying at bank of america about the consumer for here and now, it's a pretty decent litmus test if you look at what they're saying about the consumer and deposits and the health of the consumer i guess your point is just a good one is that, again, if we're going to see -- look at the way some of the travel stocks act they act like we are going into a recession. if you look at them and take it at face value, look at darden, the relative strength it has shown over the last couple of months as the market has been careening lower from the august high tells you that something is going on with these names. at least investors think that they're cheap, and they look cheap, i think >> i would just say that the market hasn't given these stocks a chance to really ride into this sweet spot of what might be

commodity prices coming down and the consumer has money these stocks have been proven -- or guilty until proven innocent. that's the dynamic i know guy likes chipotle. i've been so wrong on this stock for years. there is no way they can trade at this multiple in this environment. at least on a relative value basis, i just -- i don't see a 40 plus multiple on a company that has been phenomenally well run. their loyalty business, everything about what they've done in terms of the quality of that menu. >> there you go. if the gains continue, we'll have to change the name to green lobster. >> okay. >> no? see? i just don't even know why i drag myself into the city for this stuff it's like a six-hour round trip. all right. coming up, it's game on for roblox shares jumping nearly 20% as it get morse players logging on the growth numbers behind today's move in what has been a tough stock. it's been a tough year as well for netflix. with the recent add tier

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for the stock's best day of the year the company reporting a 23% increase in daily active users this september versus last year. stocks still down, though, about 65% from its highs dan, short covering rally or something more meaningful? >> i think it's the first piece of decent news think about a lot of these companies. this stock is down more than 50% just this year alone, down more from its all-time highs. you a lot of people bared up on a story that people were extremely excited about a year, year and a half ago. you get one piece of news like this, especially before earnings and shorts have to cover and they start tripping over each other. and people are looking for beta. you get a rally going like this today, you hope the rally in the nasdaq can do 10%. i think that's a bit of what's going on here today. meantime, netflix having a nice day the streaming stock jumping more than 7%. netflix reporting earnings after the bell tomorrow. and options traders are betting on more game mike khouw joining us.

>> netflix implying a move of 12%. that's in line with the moves we've seen over the last eight quarters however, some traders are betting on a much larger move. 300 calls. we saw over 8600 of those trade for over $1.34 a contract. buyers of the calls are betting netflix could move more than 20% to the upside by the end of the week a move of that magnitude hasn't been posted since october of 2016 brian? >> thank you as always, for more "options action," tune in 5:30 at eastern time >> i am long netflix very interested to see the ad-supported business. you know, everyone is looking for a million user, additional users subscribers. i don't know if that's so much matters this time. i feel like this transition in the business is really important. and it's not just a one quarter thing. so i am long going in. about as cheap as it's been. >> around 21 times forward so certainly attractive value

territory. i'm long as well and i do think that the commentary is no longer about subcontraction i think it's going to be about traction in the two new area, both ad supported and the password dynamics, which we haven't really heard a lot about. in this tape, i think she goes higher >> all right up next, it is your final tresad this thing, it's making me get an ice bath again. what do you mean? these straps are mind-blowing! they collect hundreds of data points like hrv and rem sleep, so you know all you need for recovery.

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guy adami, kick us off, please >> brian, brian, it was great to have you here today. i'm glad you still believe in me mcdonald's, mcd. >> tim >> pet sounds are everywhere and so are green lobsters, by the way. and i'll just rehash the energy story very quickly energy waiting and the s&ps around 4%. it could be 16% if you go back to 2008. conocophillips, a big cash payout level and free cash flow that i think is going to get better this year. >> karen >> yes so rally today back above 100. i like alphabet going into earnings i think the bar is much lower. the valuation now if you back up

the cash is under 17 >> mr. nathan? >> this is a guy adami pick. johnson & johnson. we call it johnny john takes some -- >> who calls it that >> we've been calling it that for a long time. yeah, i think that one looks okay >> hey, i'll be ckba tomorrow. >> all right >> i my mission is simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends, i'm just trying to make you some money my job is not just to entertain but to educate, teach you and put days like this into context. call me at 800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer.