price. >> i don't know. start leading us to believe that it's 75 again. >> in december. >> that could be trouble >> well, no doubt about it and we're all slave to the next inflation number we know that >> another key earnings report is coming tomorrow that is tesla. we'll have that of course in overtime we'll see you for your last word i'll see you back on the desk for all of that and more that does it for me. "fast money" begins right now. and right now on "fast," netflix popping after crushing expectations, beating the street on the top line, the bottom line, and on subscriber ad shares up nearly 15% iphone overload? well, a new report that apple may be cutting production for the iphone 14 plus just two weeks after it launched. shares shrugging it off. we're going dig in and later on, salesforce jumping on an activist push. and tesla investors getting all jacked up ahead of earnings. hello, everybody i'm brian in for melissa

thanks for joining us on "fast money" live from beautiful bucolic times square in mork at the nasdaq market site on your desk tonight, tim seymour, guy adami, we've got dan nathan out in san francisco, and julie walker we've got a big show for you we're going start right here on that big pop for netflix shares of the streaming company jumping after earnings the company surpassing expectations on revenue, operating income, subscriber ads. let's dig into the quarter a little bit more. julia boorstin is here to break it all down. by any measure, it was big quarter, julia. >> a big quarter indeed. that's right netflix beating on the top and bottom line. but what's most important for that stock going up nearly 14% right now is the company add far more subscribers than expected 2.4 million compared to the 1 million the company guided to for the third quarter. and for the fourth quarter, it's guiding to the addition of 4.5 million subscribers. that's half a million more than

analysts anticipated now netflix saying that the growth won't be due to that lower cost ad-supported service, saying, quote, while we're very optimistic about our new advertising business, we don't expect a material contribution in q42022. we pate growing our membership in this ad-supported plan gradually over time. that's in the letter to shareholders netflix saying the growth is coming from its content, such as its non-english programing as well as its original films, plus innovative marketing all yielding what netflix says is higher engagement than any other streamer has, saying they account for 7.6% of tv time in the u.s. they also know that growth is coming from overseas the most subscriber additions were in the asia-pacific region. the smallest additions were in the u.s. and canada. and starting next quarter, netflix will no longer give forward subscriber guidance as it tries to shift focus away

from subscriber metrics, instead focusing now on revenue with their diversification, thanks to advertising and paid sharing brian? >> all right, julia, thank you very much. let's trade it, guy adami. listen, i'm not going to take away from a 14% gain after hours. but this stock is down 400 bucks in a year. >> even with the move to current levels it's great to have you here by the way, brian the three of us here together. >> you were upset about. he is fired up about netflix >> let's go after netflix. >> no, i'm not going after netflix. i know he happens to watch the show and we said he is a genius a number of times, and he continues to pull a rabbit out of the hat we mentioned the gaps in the chart on the upside that need to be filled. those gaps get filled up to $300 we also mentioned since the spring it was the first time literally since the inception of a planly traded company that you could make a coached for netflix. now i think the rally gets long

in the tooth i do think it has legs maybe another 10%ish from here but then you pull the ripcord, brian. >> right before the show started, you kind of mumbled to me finally they did something. >> yeah. and as someone who has been long the stock and bought it after the first down quarter, not the second, i'm still down i heard a couple of things that are encouraging. i also heard something that is emblematic of what we're going to hear in this quarter. a 13% year-over-year about a billion dollars. i heard about free cash flow and about a billion in free cash flow this year, and they expect significantly more next year when you add that into at least a revenue model that is changing, and they're going to continue to give us more insight into that, we got some insight into the password sharing. and i think this is participant of the strategic plan. we have at least some idea on how they're going to try to begin to monetize. and i don't think most analysts have priced that in. not expensive certainly relative to itself. but i don't think expensive relative to the upside here in terms of what they're giving you

revenue growth. >> we talk about this on the 1:00 show today, about the idea that you're a paying subscriber. now you got the free thing with the ads. you wonder, are people actually going to trade down? are they going to cannibalize themselves by people dumping their monthly subscription and just going to the ad-supported tier and if so, will that be able to make up for the subscription loss >> yeah, i think that's the concern that i have is just the level of cannibalization we've all gotten incrementally more and more comfortable with ads we watch online. before we wouldn't accept it now it's becoming a little more of an accepted thing if they have leakage coming out that way, wouldn't it make more sense to try to control the people, the 41% of their subscribers that are just borrowing someone's log-in i certainly hope my husband isn't doing. it's important to think what the core drivers of this business are. and the thing is this business

has never been more competitive than it is today content is extremely expensive we as consumers benefit from that we pay nothing for the level of high quality programming that they deliver to us and i think it's really important to bear in mind that the economics of this business still really matter, particularly if you have customers trading down >> and it is $6.99 a month premium 19 the middle level is at $15.99 i think. and the basic is $9.99 dan, your take on netflix's quarter. your take on netflix the stock >> i think the good news is that they rolled out this ad-supported tier prior to them really focused on the password sharing issue. so you can see a path forward. you talked about cannibalization, but really capturing a bunch of those nonpayers on multifamily accounts i think, again, we're just not going to know. and to julie's point about the content, the expense and the competition, that's one of the reasons why this has been one of

the most volatile stocks that we've seen over the last ten years in the s&p 500, right? because there have been peaks and troughs as it relates to% churn and the content slate. so that doesn't get easier from here i guess the good news for the stock, and i think guy is correct. maybe you fill in that gap from the spring here. but at that point, you have a significant move off of the bottom you might see plenty of analysts who have been offsides i think there are 16 or 17 analysts who rate this stock a buy. 27 or so that rate it a hold, and 6 sell okay we can see the light at the end of the tunnel here but again, i don't think the company is out of the woods. and i think there is going to be plenty volatility in those subscriber numbers, whether they report them or not i think a lot of these analysts have probably gotten pretty good at figuring out how to back into them >> okay. let's bring another voice, rich greenfield of lightshed partners who put out some tweet with a gift of a skeleton hand coming out of a grave, streaming is

alive. what the heck did you mean by that, rich >> well, i think the market has essentially assumed that after the slowdown at netflix, some of the challenges that have faced disney subscriber ads and other companies, they essentially assumed this category was dead and they sort of moved on. this business, i've heard so many people say oh, this is a business that's matured, 200 plus million subs, that's the top, that's it and i think what we are clearly seeing tonight is that investors are shifting back to oh my god, there is actually growth here. there may be more revenue growth than purely subscriber growth over the next couple of years. but there is healthy growth ahead. i think if you look forward to next year, now you can start to paint the picture why netflix can grow revenue in the low to mid teens, which i don't think a couple of months ago people really thought was possible. i think that's where it gets very exciting is thinking about 2023 and 2024. and the company just seems

energized. you read the letter today, and they're coming out swinging, attacking, like binging makes sense. theaters is not the right strategy they're on the offensive for the first time in six to nine months. >> rich, they've got some hit shows. and first off, the stock is down $400 a share from its peak of last year. so let's not paint it as everything is all fantastic. they've got dumber and the watcher. they've got some shows that are getting a lot of buzz. and that stock seems to come and go based on consumer trends around a show. if they have a bust in six months, then what's going to happen how sustainable i guess is the momentum is the question because it seems to rise and fall based on just is anybody talking about a specific show or not. >> i think the cadence of being successful shows is certainly increasing if you look at the last few months, there has certainly been more consistent success than there was in the six months prior. so i think that's part of the reason i also think there is starting to be a pullback you're starting to see

retrenchment from others i don't think the aggressive level of spending and marketing, you've got companies that are losing $2 billion to $3 billion trying to compete with netflix i think a lot of them are starting to think is this the best strategy? can you win and stream if they can't, i think a lot of media companies are starting to think that part of this is competition may lessen a little bit as you move into 2023. that's going to be another catalyst but again, brian, the thing i would focus on is overall time spent. you think about connected tvs. netflix represents almost 30% of time spent on connected tv youtube is in the low 20s. nobody else is even close. so, yes, the big high profile hits come and go but the overall amount of engagement dwarfs everybody else >> so rich, it's tim and we don't need to discuss the secular reasons behind streaming. tudly we have to defend that no way you talk about the engagement.

what can netflix do to monetize? i've read your notes for someone with this kind of engage how do they get that up? that's the story right now. >> there are 20 to 30 million people they'll say 30 let's say there is 20 million people who have netflix every single day and use it every day and don't pay for it because they're mooching off of somebody else that's going to start to get monetized either through people paying for password sharers, and shifting people to ad plans. and i was listening to you earlier on the show. i don't think you're going to see a lot of cannibalization dropping down from 1699 or 1599 where you have multiple accounts and the ability and no ads dropping down to 6 clnds 99 where you have one stream, nonhd, not even all the programing, i think that's going to be a very tough sell. i don't think there is downgrade risk i think this is about opening up the market for the people that are not netflix subscribers right now, they're their own netflix subscribers mooching off somebody else. not just in the u.s.

it's also a really big issue in latin america where the pass ward sharing is more rampant than the u.s they have huge password sharing outside the u.s. >> i do wonder with that 720p, and the way that it's broadcast, they seem to be going down market with that ad tier. >> sure. >> if you've got a 65-inch platt panel, you don't want to watch 720. >> sure, but brian, remember, they're at 67 million u.s. members. so think about the households from 67 to 100 plus. how do you get there what does that home look like? some of the people are clearly sharing. but there is certainly a group of those homes that are lower income, can afford it, but can't afford $9.99 or can't afford $16.99 i think part of this is opening up more of the market. i think the single biggest thing that investors are not paying attention to or should who are watching the show right now, netflix is going to start an ad campaign in two weeks. they're going to market it netflix is at a lower price than it's ever been in its history.

you've never seen netflix streaming at $6.99 they're going to be first ever price-based ad campaign for netflix starting in november for the new ad service they're clearly going after a lower end demographic that has never been a netflix sub consistently in the past. >> we'll see if it works rich greenfield, thanks. this was the last quarter, i think, that they're going provide any update on paying subscribers. kind of tucked in there. julia boorstin mentioned it. they're going to focus on revenue. we may not ever hear again about subscriber numbers >> that's probably not a bad thing. i think it might decrease the sort of volatility that we see around quarters. we just talked about how volatility this stock has been, from year to year over the last, i don't know, as long as we've been covering it that might be a good thing, getting investors a bit more comfortable with just some different metrics that lend themselves to less volatility. when i listen to rich talk about that, you talk about if you're not that worried about

cannibalization, he thinks the potential to carry on board a bunch of new subscribers at the lowest price point, that makes sense to me. it also makes sense if you get the password sharing thing under control, that also helps margins. that leads me to believe they want to broaden out horizontally i think a company like spotify, i don't own it i really thought about kicking the tires and thinking about potential m&a. it's a $15 billion enterprise company that has 20% growth margins where netflix has 40 i get it they lose money on a gap basis that is how i would look to broaden this out and ramp margins on an adjacent product and just have a better offering in general >> you kind of muddle the numbers too with the deal. it gives you a couple of years of maybe some runway tim, comment on netflix before you swapped apple. >> i think they haven't begun to monetize the password sharing. rich got to that you lower the bar here i don't believe in cannibalism there is a long time we talked about their content.

if anything, i think the content will win out, and i think this is why the stock goes higher. >> let's move on shares of apple did claw back some loss earlier in the session after a report that the company is cutting production of the highest end version of its newest phone the iphone 14 +. that move coming less than two weeks after that phone went on sale it did manage to end in the green. let's get more details before we trade it steve, what do we know what do we don't know? >> there was that healthy drop this afternoon it was off of this information report that said apple is cutting production of its iphone 14 + that's the bigger screen model that came out about a week and a half ago there was immediate pushback on the report with some noting it only says one supplier was told to stop making parts for the 14 + there is a huge global supply chain. apple's supply chain is far more massive than just one supplier

so it's difficult to buy this report if that means there is a full pause in production by the way, jordan klein, an analyst threw cold water on the report shortly after it came out, saying, quote, this article sounds more like a joke from me to catch clicks and eyeballs we hear similar reports about the iphone 14 since it launched in november there is a lot of extra demand for the iphone. however, most analysts predict apple can keep units flat at $90 million and still show growth for the segment thanks to the demand for the more expensive pro models, similar to what netflix is planning to do. iphone needs to be strong because mid evidence of the app store sales could be down for the quarter. and all the headwinds and warnings about the demand for computers and tablets falling off the cliff and the way we're going to get some real data when earnings are happening next thursday and we'll get our first

p peek apple declined to comment on that report. >> listen, there seems to be no substance to this. we heard something similar a couple of weeks ago that didn't have any substance either. and then you start to wonder people sort of floating these stories throughout to take advantage of moves into the markets. i'm not suggesting that. it's just something we should examine. because clearly, you saw a huge move in the market on the back of that news and subsequent rally back until we hear from apple i believe on the 27th, i mean, all this stuff to me is just noise with that said, the environment that we find ourselves in, we might see a slowdown in apple and a slowdown in demand that has not been proven yet >> julie, your take. the information, which is the name of the company, it's a paid service where it came from they do some great tech reporting. so let's assume the news is true let's say it is true does that change your view or change our viewers and listeners' views on apple? >> i don't think it necessarily should i don't think anyone should be

surprised that demand for the highest end phone is going to be a little bit softer given the consumer backdrop being increasingly challenging, particularly with inflation. i don't think it should change anyone's long-term point of view i think it's possible, though, that we have seeing a setup where holiday at apple is not really as good as it could be. i think everyone has already gotten their new laptops, their new ipads, their new phones. we're starting to get a little long in the tooth on just a global i.t. cycle. a the end of the day, i think this business is one that's really about managing its own supply chain i can't think of anyone who has a more complex supply chain than that of apple. i think that understanding how that kind of flows through the numbers is critical to understanding the business long-term. >> yep by the way, the 512 gigabyte, 1100 bucks on deck, salesforce takes off. one big hedge fund jumping into the stock. should you

the crm trade ahead. first, another earnings alert coming your way. united airlines and j.b. hunt both on the move after reporting their numbers. we're going to dig into both of those transports next. stick around more "fast money" in two minutes.

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all right. welcome back we've got an earnings alert on united airlines. they are beating on both the top and the bottom line. the strongest results in three years. they got record revenue. shares of united, by the the way, are higher as well. who here has got a trade, tim, on united? >> to me it's delta over united. but let's listen to united and say their operating margin is going to exceed their peak 2019. they're going tell you that their ebitda margin down to 11.3 is a major recovery. so when i hear about demand and i hear the dynamics that people are worried would be the airlines, the biggest issue for airlines have been operational and logistics, et cetera, et cetera it's not been necessarily their ability to have higher prices. we learned that with the cpi number they're not all built the same the balance sheets are not all

built the same if you look at enterprise value for a loft the airlines, delta is the most attractive >> dan, i'm assuming you do not walk to san francisco. considering you were here last night. my guess is you flew my guess is the plane was packed my guess is the airport was packed >> yeah. the one take away i'd say, actually, the results out of united, they're cutting their counts back by 10% they're beating earnings, they're running their businesses better in a difficult environment, maybe from an input cost standpoint difficult. maybe the demand is there, but when you see that sort of cap ex cut, it tells me that maybe they're managing to get there a little bit too all right. let's move on to another transport name a littlebit different. this is j.b. hunt, the trucking company. they're also out with their earnings after the bill. like united, they beat on the top and bottom lines we don't talk a lot about trucking companies on "fast money" very much, julie. but many of these have been quiet money makers over the last couple of years.

do you have a touch on jbht? >> yeah. i think it was actually a little more positive results than i was expecting. i look at the transport companies as being an early canary in the coal mine, particularly with all the supply chain challenges we've been having typically when they're reporting good business, there is good sale for through retail. i like to take a look at these generally the results were pretty good. their intermodal business is really the one to pay attention to the biggest challenge that all of these trucking companies have had is normally they like to keep their fleets really young, and they haven't been able to get new trucks so that's an important part is understanding how their cap ex is going to play out if they have to catch up >> guy, listen, truckers have not been sexy since 1978 ali mcgraw classic "convoy". >> "smoky and the bandit"? >> keep going. >> by the way, the stock is nearly double. that's pretty cool >> it's tremendous

j.b. hunt by the way on valuation, you could make a very compelling argument trading at a market multiple. should it be trading higher in my opinion julie is right to point out intermodal which continues to grow in this environment that's all good signs. i think the all-time high was 218. the sell-off we saw in this name, although drastic was not commensurate to the broader market it's hung in there i think it can go higher from these levels that's the first time in the history of "fast money" that we've ever mentioned ali mcgraw, and that's a shame, to be honest with you. >> it won't be the last. not if they keep sending me here. >> she is probably watching right now. >> an $87 stock four years ago 170 today. not a bad moneymaker for a trucking company you're right there is a lot more "fast money" to come here is what is up after the break. >> one activist investor taking a stake in salesforce. does he have his head in the clouds or is this stock set to soar those details and the trade, next and later, tesla earnings on deck shares losing energy this month.

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♪ yes this is how, this is how we work now. ♪ all right. welcome back to "fast money. look at that or listen to this. sales of salesforce.com up 4% after hedge fund starboard value partners reveal a, quote, significant stake in the cloud computing company. starboard founder jeff smith telling cnbc this morning he believes salesforce is cheap right now and wants to be a long-term investor in the name starboard also revealed a new stake in splunk, betting that

the software company could be a takeover target as well. splunk shares popping about 3% in today's session tim seymour, salesforce. i'm a little surprised starboard is a big company salesforce is a very big company to be trying to take a little activist stake in. >> part of this is just putting pressure and jostling a little bit. they don't like the business mix. they don't like the margin they think they should be growing more than 20%. this is an environment where this company has had enormous growth by the way, salesforce has also been growing through acquisition. at some point that becomes a little different talk to oracle even though successfully done. so it gets back to a place where you look at companies like this, and certainly in the software space, the multiples were not things we were comfortable with six months ago, certainly not a year ago and the question is do you want to pay them here i think in salesforce you start to want to own this thing. >> dan nathan, your take on crm. >> i do think it's interesting i think our viewers should know when you see starboard, they said long-term they're not trying to change up

the management ranks i think benioff and brett taylor are considered two of the best in tech. it really is getting them to think about how differently other than acquisition to kind of grow that business. and again, they're going to take a long-term approach to this i will just say this i got to tell you. up 4.5% on that news, down 50% on the year. was not particularly impressive, that splunk up 3%, not impressive so to me, i look at crm's estimates for next year fiscal 2024, expected a growth of 20% on 15% sales growth. and say you know what? there is probably another downgrade to that guidance i think you have the opportunity to buy this thing lower, in my opinion. >> julie, the stock is $50 under its 50-day moving average, to dan's point. i mean, the weakness, even relative to the macro market in nine months has been overwhelming >> yeah. i mean, if you look at this business writ large, it barely,

barely occupies the space it's in you should think looking at it, if i described it to you, that this would be producing incredible levels of profitability. and it's pretty mediocre so then it becomes a question of how is this business allocating its capital? because it's really not meeting its potential. it's worse than i was in high school, honestly no one has underperformed like that i think long-term you have to be wondering if this is just a business that's going to grow through acquisition, why should i own that i'm perfectly competent at diversifying my portfolio. i don't need a company to do that making those synergies actually work is critical >> the one-liners out of julie biehl with a straight face, tremendous, tremendous effort right there. you didn't give her any salute >> i just did. i just literally if you're driving home, you're on the radio you can't see me. >> genius. thank god. >> i was literally giving a salute julie, i like it leakage. coming up, the earnings bars so low, are beats an all clear

for stocks one top investor maybe not so fast peter boockvar will join us next bulls topping the tape today. the trade on target, coming up get your trades to go with the "fast money" podcast catch us any time, anywhere. follow today on your favorite podcasting app podcasting app we're back right after this. looks like you can make this work. we can make this work. and the feeling of confidence that comes from our advice? i can make this work. that seems to be universal. i can make this work. i can make this work. no wonder more than 9 out of 10 clients are likely to recommend us. because advice worth listening to is advice worth talking about. ameriprise financial. (vo) with verizon, you can now get a private 5g network. so you can do more than connect your business,

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all right. we've got to take another look at shares of netflix stock up 14% right now pretty blowout earnings after the bell they had twice as many subscribers as expected in the third quarter. i believe it was 2.41 million, if i remember right, guy if the gains hold tomorrow, that would be netflix's best stock showing since january of 2001. by the way, intuitive surgical and united air also rising after their earnings as adobe, which announced its growth strategy for next year. now all these moves come after broad gains in the regular session for the full market. s&p up more than a percent

the s&p now 6 1/2% setting multi-year lows on thursday. and tim, the transports considered to be a leading indicator, up six of the past seven sessions there has been a lot of kind of positive stuff happening in this market lately. >> well, if you look at where we were also prefutures at the peak today, we're up 8% off of that cpi intra-day low. a lot of this to me is no one is ready to say rates have peaked no one is ready to say the dollar has peaked. no one is ready to say we're not going to get more downgrades on growth we've endured a lot of pain. if you look at some of the technicals in the market, that 3600 level holding that was very important. i think as we've said, there is between positioning, cash levels and sentiment right now, i think you've got an opportunity to trade this thing higher. the earnings that we're getting don't show a consumer that is dead the bank scenarios gave us that reinforcement, even though they've given you slightly different ways of expressing the consumer strength. but right now third quarter earnings have been fine. >> it's interesting. last night we talked about

tactically being long. we got a lot of blowback you guys always bearish. i'm still bearish. i still think there are tremendous headwinds facing up this is eerily reminiscent of the june 16th day when over the next two months the market rallied almost 19% i'm not suggesting a 19% move. but we could easily see another 8% to 10% from levels we're see right now, which i guess puts us right there. and then fall back to levels that i think we're going get to, 3400 in the s&p. you try to be tactical in a bear market we've said it a number of times. the largest, most severe rallies take place in bear markets i think we're in the midst of one right now. >> and the vix is still north of 30 that's actually bullish if you're an equity investor here i think you've got markets that could see a little relief. >> julie >> yeah, no, i agree it's a lot of conflicting information, right because sentiment is all-time terrible if you look in europe, highest cash levels for portfolio managers so that is what gives me some

confidence okay i want to come back in but at the end of the day, valuations are still kind of high they're not at a place of true capitulation markets are still extremely orderly. so i'm not really at the place where i feel super bulled up it's really hard to be super enthusiastic when valuations are still kind of high >> yeah. so guy says we could have a little pop before pullback to -- >> 3400, kemosabe. >> 3400. perfecto another 8 to 10% could come before that. let's get more on the move on stocks and rates peter boockvar, cnbc contributor. peter, the stock market has got to be calmed down a little bit by the fact that rates have actually been a little calm also, or maybe that's why the stock market has done it, because finally interest rates have kind of flattened out a little bit in the last couple of weeks.

>> well, they're flattening out at the highest level we've seen in this move with the ten-year for a two-year at four 40. >> true. be they stopped going up is my point, at least for now. >> yes the trajectory definitely. and we also got some com in the guilt market so that provided some relief last wednesday, we saw the investors intelligence numbers that showed the whole bear spread at the widest with the bears being above bulls since march 2009 so we had two readings in the aaii of bears above 60 so we had really dour sentiment. we've tremendously lowered the earnings expectations bar. and there is death there is taxes and there is companies will beat estimates by 70 to 75% in total and we're going see that again you lower guidance going into the quarter. you beat those numbers now revenue numbers i think will be really important to pay attention to, as is the guidance but there is no doubt that

companies are going to beat estimates at the same pace they always do. but that doesn't necessarily mean it's a good quarter it means that it's just better than the fears going in. i think we have to take a step back, look at earnings' big picture that trajectory is slowing. >> okay. but you got admit, peter, so far the numbers we've seen have been pretty good. >> well, relative to expectations if you look at the bank numbers, the operating income is down year-o year-over-year. >> guidance hasn't been horrible either we haven't anybody come out and say consumer is off a cliff, nobody is on a plane it hasn't been terrible. >> right well, the banks, their comments on the consumer are really living in a nominal world. bank of america saying their credit card spending is up 10% well, inflation is up almost 10%. so i'm not sure how to extrapolate much information on a real basis and it's really going to be what big cap tech says. it's really going to be the

cyclical names that i think you're going get a good gauge on the earnings story it's those companies that are doing business overseas that are going to have to tell us about how well did they dodge it, what's going on in europe, what's going on in asia. there is a lot more to go in this earnings season it's still going to be a land mine, even so far relative to expectations, yes, it's been a decent start >> all right peter boockvar, peter, you're on at 5:00 a.m., on at 5:00 p.m., and we always appreciate it. peter boockvar thanks very much >> thanks, brian >> you know, dan, i was trying to find. listen, to peter's point, some of the banks were a little more on the concerning side but everybody -- to guy's point earlier, oh, you're all negative all the time so far what have you thought about the macro tone from the numbers and guidance that you have seen? >> you know, i've been doing this a long time not as long as guy, but i will tell you that, you know, during earnings season, you just can't get like thrown around, man.

one week the sentiment is going to be this it was really negative heading into it. and then we have the bank earnings, and the bank stocks rally 15%. and you just can't get all bulled up. you can't extrapolate that across everything, you know. to me, a lot of it as it goes sector by sector, it really does have to do relative to what expectations were heading into it i think the higher that some of these stocks rally into these results, i think the harder it gets coming out of it, and we'll see a very different tone i think at the end of earnings season and the last thing i'll just say, you know what, man, we're not going to flip-flop on this sort of stuff. i'm fairly well committed that we are going to break the lows that we just made late last week we might see some air come out of this thing. and like kind of rally up to where guy is suggesting. but at the end of the day, we haven't seen enough strategists lower their s&p earnings estimates for next year. that's really important as we get further into q4. it just hasn't happened yet. and you tell me, the s&p going

to drop at 16 times or something like that? i just don't think it's going to >> we've had a couple of strategists drop but they do it kind of quietly isn't that amazing they don't really come out with a big note saying we was wrong, drop i mean, a few have >> no -- >> but not a lot. >> look, i think investors can do their work on this. i will say what i am seeing is economists and people moving interest rates higher. i think they're going higher >> all right coming up, tesla their earnings are on take the ev maker charging up to report tomorrow. how are the options traders getting set up for that name we're going to dive into the "options action" on tesla, which may be one of the most important stocks in the world. plus, target the retail stock jumping analysts weighing in on the supply cinha what the company and the stock are doing right. we're back in two minutes.

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all right. welcome back the countdown to tesla earnings, it's on. a report tomorrow after the bell now it's been a rough month for the electric carmaker, down 17%. citigroup reiterating its sell rating on tesla this morning, saying macro concerns are being front and center one trader in the options market

seems to agree, making a big bet for more downside. let's find out more about it with mike khouw, the "options action." >> tesla options right now implying a move of a little over 8% by the end of the week. that's greater than the 5.5% that the company has averaged after the last eight reported quarters, although last quarter it moved about 10% a lot of those bets are betting that the stock is going to move lower. the most active contracts for the october 220 puts we saw over 70,000 of those trading. buyers of those are betting that tesla is going to trade below that by at least $8.50 by 8% or more by the end of the week. >> all right, mike, thank you. for more "options action," be sure to tune in to the full show as always, friday at 5:30 p.m. eastern time all right. coming up, is target a bulls-eye buy? why analysts are throwing this retailer in their cart plus, coming up, a winner no matter what. amazon prime keeps climbing,

even if the economy don' sest,o says your call of the day. that is next when we're back ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ be ready for any market with a liquid etf.

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all right. welcome back target topping the tape after a bullish call from jefferies that sees the stock rallying nearly 18% from today's close they're upgrading stock to a buy, saying it's by inventory and inflation issues poised to outperform next year julie, are you buying this call? >> probably not. i mean, i would say that target is probably like best house in a rough neighborhood i think, you know, the consumer is probably up for some major headwinds. it is one of the better managed retailers, and i think they're starting to see some real success with their in-store remodel. so it has potential. but no, i don't want too much retail exposure. >> anyone here a buyer of this call, a buyer and owner of target >> i'll play your reindeer game. yeah, i think earnings november 16th, given what i think is going to happen in the broader market, given valuation which has been compelling, you buy it. but i think you pull the ripcord into it. i got to tell you, the last two quarters from target have been an unmitigated disaster.

>> relative to walmart, and this is always fun to play these two against each other target outperformed walmart by probably 80% over a nine-month period and now walmart outperforming target by 35%. i think you stay in this trade i'm long walmart i think target looks good too. it is the value play relative to walmart. >> can you own them both >> it's like would you not rather. >> haven't we priced in inventory dynamics enough for these guys i don't think they're going to do this again. and i think the supply chain dynamics coupled with everything else was a unique storm that i think is something that we're not going to see again by two of the most sophisticated retailers. >> dan, what do you think of the call >> listen, i think that these guys are correct we were talking about these inventory issues with downgrades to guidance, you know, in the late spring, right there was a couple of massive gaps in these names. you know, at the start of this year, i know walmart was showing really good relative strength as interest rates were going

higher to me, i don't think it's done yet. i do think this is going to be a very dicey to julie's point holiday period for the consumer here i think we'll know a lot less. if -- a lot more, obviously. if you're dealing with inventory issues and we know a lot of discounting is happening very early for the holidays, i just don't know how that ends up particularly well from a margin standpoint for a lot of the retailers. >> yeah, couldn't get anything and they overbought. we'll see what happens with the inventory and margin pressure. now to your call of the day. amazon, it's higher. of course the whole market was up today but citigroup said it is a top pick regardless of what the economy does the analyst there saying if the fed is able to ennear a soft landing, is the fed engineer anything increase sales so that consumer staples could benefit the company. if not, citigroup and their analyst still think amazon can maintain profitability in the event of a hard landing. do you agree, guy adami? >> to a point. i'll say this. on a great tape which we had

seen into november of last year, amazon did absolutely nothing for the 18-month period leading up to it the stock was effectively sideways it really hasn't done all that much since but if you think we're coming out of something and if you think this market rally has legs, amazon makes sense here on a number of metrics, including believe it or not valuation. i'm not one of those people. amazon proved themselves to be pretty much a worthless stock when the market was doing great. and i don't think it's all that much better now. >> what's worthless is probably the ecommerce business and again, it's not worthless, but in fact if you do some of the aws, and aws is really where you've accreted all the value. i think that's the place that investors have actually been a bit concerned. they've given us not really that reason to be concerned yet on enterprise, but that's the place for investors. i would make the argument on ecommerce, the comps they've lapped, they're so far past the covid to pull forward for them i agree with that staples call

>> all right there we go. next up, anybody else, dan, julie on amazon? no, all right. go ahead. >> no, i think i completely agree with tim's point the rekey of owning am is about aws. it's not really about the e-commerce business. so anything they do is going to be incremental upside. >> amazon web services julie,ha y vy ch tnkouermu julie,ha y vy ch tnkouermu up next, it is your final trade. the pursuit is on. the pursuit of outperformance at pgim. with deep expertise to outthink across multiple asset classes, actively managing investments the world's public and private markets. outscale, with the resources to serve 1,500 clients in 52 countries. and outlast, with long-term conviction that looks beyond today's volatility. join the pursuit of outperformance at pgim. the investment management business of prudential. ♪ ♪

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all right. let's take one last look, hopefully not ever, at netflix could put its best day since january of 2021. other streamers like roku, disney, paramount also jumping in the after hours dan, your thoughts and whether or not this could last >> it probably doesn't last in netflix probably has another 10% higher, like guy thought i thought disney could be interesting, a little double bottom there over the last couple of months >> all right one more quick comment we have unusual amounts of time in this final block due to my efficient nature of anchoring

television. >> apparently we're too efficient. >> can i just say something to the people at home i would never do something like i'm about to do, mention the folks that you told us earlier in a commercial break that you were listening to survivor on the way home last night. which i would never do that to you because it's embarrassing. >> i think i called him a loser, which isn't nice any way. so do you want that talk about you have the eye of the tiger. you're looking at me with the eye of the tiger right now. >> well, the search is over. i think i figured exactly what's going on here. >> yeah. >> i was high on you time now for your final trade. dan nathan, save the show. >> i can't do that for you, sully. but spotify, interesting they report next week. i want to see one more gap lower, then you buy it. >> julie, i know you have vital signs on cassette somewhere in your house >> i like -- i'm not usually a fan of retail, but ol'ie's,

retail is going to be favorite >> i like delta airlines i look at these numbers by united i think delta improves upon that >> i like you, brian i also like the quarter out of lockheed martin, lmt. >> there you go. pretty good stuff. by the way, if you haven't listened to vital signs, check it again tonight let me know what my mission is simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to mat "mad money." welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends, i'm just trying to make you a little money my job is not just to train but educate and teach you. call me at 800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer.

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