procter & gamble and travelers. the white house looking to continue to lower gas prices president biden expected to announce an additional release of oil from the strategic reserve. and netflix, shares are soaring after the company more than doubled estimatesof subscribers in the most recent quarter. wednesday, october 19th, 2022, 35 years ago that was the crash of '87. "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ good morning and welcome to "squawk box" right here on cnbc. we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. take a look at equity futures. you see right now we're getting

green arrows we've been getting used to that. it's been three to four days dow futures up by just over 100 points s&p up by almost 18 points and nasdaq by 85 s&p was up by over 1%. the nasdaq by nearly 1%, 0.9%. the dow is now up by 4.5%. the s&p is up by 4%, and the nasdaq is up by 3.5% so these gaines have added up pretty quickly of course, we're still down considerably from the highs, but that is a pretty nice move over a short amount of time treasury yields if we continue to watch this, 10-year at 4.059% but across the board, the yields are a little higher. let's talk about president biden as he's set to release some oil from the strategic oil

preserve it would extend the spr. it's intended to counteract a european embargo on russian oil set to go into ee text december 5th. so far this year the white house has released about 165 million barrels of oil from the strategic petroleum reserve and said it would be around 180 million. it currently stands at a 40-year low, but it's far from empty at capacity, it can hold 17.4% barrels. sources telling cnbc the president plans to announce a repurchase of oil for the reserve when the price is around $70 to $72 a barrel.

we'll have to figure out when that will be we'll talk with the white house's adviser at kc. we'll talk with amos about all of this. >> this is what he authorized. there's a lot of different feelings on it emergency? the way we talk about inflation, we talk about it like it's an emergency. jurgen, i usually -- he doesn't usually say things that aren't fairly reasonable. he said, yeah, you'd think of it as an emergency, $5 a gallon of gas for american consumers it's not an emergency of shutting down production because of a hurricane in the gulf or something, but -- and if we do -- if the fed gets a chance to do what we say it's going to do, there's a chance if there's a recession, it may

be good, buy high, sell low. >> i have a couple of problems with it. it's counter to some of the things we would like to incentivize. for example, if you'd like to see more american companies drill more and put more money into additional pumping, if you're trying to bring down prices, it's not incentivizing especially when they're paying more for labor and the pipes if you want them to drill more, driving prices down doesn't help that second of all, every time we release oil from the sdr, the saudis offset it. >> it's a chicken/egg thing. >> it's like trying to fight the fed. you may have a big spr, but you don't have a big enough spr to put off anything the saudis are doing. there are tricky things at play with it. i understand jurgen's point that $5 gas may be an emergency

that makes sense to me. >> i always agree we should send more people to pump effectively, but the timing of that would have been problematic. you couldn't have done that meaningfully in time to capture what you needed to be able to do. >> if you want the longer term to be fixed, bringing prices down immediately -- >> i guess, here's the question. do you think that by doing this, folks in the energy complex say, actually, you know what? i'm not going to drill, i'm not going to do any of this -- >> no. >> they're going to kill me later by running the petroleum reserve against me. >> i don't think it's the only reason >> it takes time to turn the spigots on we only have till november so we had to do it -- but the other thing is i'm reasonable about it 67 to 72, that would be a nice

floor. it's not 30. it would bring some stability. 70 is the floor. >> opec plus, i think, is looking at 80 plus on the floor. that's every indication that they've shown, yes. >> i don't know. was it dahmer? netflix is up. did anyone watch dahmer. they added 2.41 million net global subscribers, and that was more than double what the company had projected a quarter ago, but they used to have like 8 million. i think only 100,000 in the united states. >> 8% was the average. >> it was. they plan to crack down on password sharing there must be a way to do that

here's founder and co-ceo reed hastings on the call last night. >> thank god we're done with shrinking quarters that's a good feeling. we're back to positivity erring the company is focused on wlrk it's the content side, marketing, lowering the prices that are ad-supported, paid sharing, the buffer approach we're doing there lines us up for a good next year all the stars are lining up very well for us. >> and we're going to look at the shares 274. here's what i'm going to say if we could be in congress, we would be trading like crazy compared to what we're allowed to do. we're not allowed to do anything i don't really complain because it's saved me a lot of money at times not being able dash. >> you'd like to go home with -- >> many, many times i said -- under 200?

maybe i would have remortgaged the house. it was the most beloved stock at the time. >> here's my password-sharing question it sounds like come next year, if you're, you nknow -- if your brother-in-law or family member or friend is using netflix, you're going to get a notice that will say, would you like to add this person to your plan, and you will have to decide whether you're going to cut said person off or add them to your plan and if you don't, then when the next time they try to log on, they're going to say, would you like to join the plan? >> how will they figure out you're not in the same house >> same house/zip code, with multiple things going on. >> what if you're a college

student, you get kickedoff off e plan >> no, you'll be part of the family plan. it will go from $20 to $25. >> you're no longer part of the original family. you're no longer part of the original family if your kid goes to college. >> it's like cable the cable program is in your house. they sell it to you if you're in the house. >> it's just after years of kind of treating us this way where a kid can watch it when going to school, what if they're watching it away from home? >> i think you'll be able to stream it -- if you go on a trip, you'll be able to stream it if somebody else is at home. >> what if you have kids 16, 17 years old able to be other places i've got four kids. >> you have the family plan. >> we have the family plan. >> your family plan is

password-sharing. >> if it's your four kids, what happens with blake >> i was going to say it, if your kid's a little older -- if you're surprised at getting bills, you'll -- many bills find their way back to the homefront. it entails checking accounts >> you'll buy the family plan for everybody in the family. >> we have a family plan where everybody has the profile and your profile doesn't work anymore because you're in a different place. you're not financially independent at this point. >> you think this is an unfair plan. >> i think there are people who are cheating, but i don't think when i let my freshmen and college use my account, that doesn't feel like cheating if i'm letting somebody -- >> it's not cheating you don't think you should pay a higher fee >> talk to me when henry and max

are a little older you're going to be the first one to complain about it. >> i think i'll end up having to pay, unfortunately. >> i think you're right. there are more than will smith six degrees of separation people using these passwords. if i were netflix. >> i can understand that i don't know how you catch the rest of us with actual children. >> it's starting to come back. i said will smith. i thought about not saying it because is he canceled still >> what if you have a kid who's in boarding school >> i don't know. call reed. >> i think you have to write this down. >> i think it's crazy when you cheat. but if it's your family -- >> i think if they're in boarding school, it's expensive, they shouldn't be watching >> or a kid's sleeping over at a friend's house. >> it won't kick in as a

one-time thing that's the point. >> how will it kick in >> if your address is in new jersey and there's somebody in california who's using the service, you know -- >> a freshman in college who's in california. >> they'll pay for the service. >> i remember having to -- you know, i had to pay for telephone service in a different location than where my parents lived. >> the difference is we have conditioned people to think this and there may be pushback along the line maybe they easily convert it maybe they don't these quarters numbers were very good. >> so at $6.95 -- you go to the movie, it's 20 bucks i have to sit through ads? why not paying anything? >> if you're paying $6.95? >> if it's ad-supported, give it to me. do i watch only a few ads? i either watch ad-support or do i watch free

i'm fine with free watching. >> and paying. >> $6.95, that's easy to afford. >> yeah. go cheap scheaper? $16? >> depends what plan you're on. coming up, we'll dig intothe market rallies future lows, take a look at where we are looks like the dow is up 15 points higher. programming note, first even society of my new streaming series it's this evening. debuts at 10:30 p.m. it features the interview we discussed on wednesday morning with pfizer ceo albert bourla, speaking out for the first time after catching covid twice in two months it's about free speech you can check it out on peacock, youtube tomorrow, and all sorts of other places.

"squawk" returns after this. >> announcer: this cnbc program is sponsored by baird. is sponsored by baird. visit bairdifference.com ♪ ♪ introducing ihg one rewards. seventeen hotel brands. six thousand global destinations. one loyalty program that lets you guest how you guest.

it seems like things are falling apart lately. the economy. the market... everything. but upwork lets you strategically hire talent to weather all ups and downs your business might go through. look at all that talent. ♪♪

box. the dow up 4.5%. the s&p up 4%, and the nasdaq up nearly 3.5%. joining us now is a senior

investment strategist. good morning to both of you. i think the question on everybody's mind is this is bear market rally or is this a bull market rally which is it, mona? what's happening there >> thanks, andrew. i think the bulls have found something to be optimistic this week first and foremost is earnings season it's reinforcing that the consumer still remains resilient. we're seeing it in not only earnings, but it's pretty robust we think in order for this rally to be sustainable, believable, we have to see a couple of things fall into place we're seeing cooling trends. yesterday it showdown pretty weak sentiments across the

board. keep in mind the mortgage rates are above 7% in the u.s. we're seeing commodities up once again despite the opec news. if we continue to see a relatively healthy consumer with a backdrop of continuing cooling and inflation, that's when i think we can mount a more sustainable rally. that could mean a fed pause as well we're not there yet, but we could be heading in that direction. >> jim, bull market rally, bear market rally what's going on? >> i wish i knew i think we're close to a bull market rally if it's not one, i guess, andrew. i think inflation is coming down and as the months go on here for the rest of the yearing we're going to get better and better reports on that. what you find out is it's not

when the rates stop but the yields go up i think what's happening here, our primary concern's been inflation, and when there's concernen inflation, bond yields have upward pressure no buyers, a lot of sellers. but rapidly what's happening is the fed continues to raise interest rates as we're raising recession fears. pretty soon i think recession fears is going to overcome inflation fear when that happens, you're going to have more bond buyers than bond sellers, and the bond market is going to quit going up with fed hikes i think we're getting close to that the thing about bear markets, they don't end when the news is good they end when it's totally hopeless. >> jim, does this base case of yours rely on as mona said a meaningful pause ahead of what

the fed market says? >> absolutely. but if the bond yields stop rising, the fed's going to fall if you look back, the story always leads the feds. the stockmarket might be going up long before they quit their tightening campaign. if you wait for the fed, you're going to miss -- >> i want to get mona back in, but, jim, we always say, you know, how do you handicap the upside versus the downside and for the last, i don't know, four, five, six months, people would say there's a much greater chance for downside versus upside and people say maybe we could go down 20%. you heard jamie dimon a week ago. sometimes you say, either the upside is, i don't know, 5%, that doesn't seem like a great equation what would that bef for you >> i think the downside is very limited. down 25%

if i look back at the last 12 recessions back to 1948, the market had fallen off by a median amount of 5.5% prior to the beginning of a recession we've already discounted five times that for whatever recession we're going to have. i think downside is limited here mona said consumers come in all shapes we might still avoid recession, the undertoe here. i think we could return back up to record highs fairly reasonably fast if we decide the fed's going to blink. >> from your lips. mona, what do you think, downside versus upside at this point? >> a good point. a lot of jim's analysis aligns with what we're seeing right now. if the fed pauses, if and does pause, that's a great

opportunity for bond markets and stockmarkets we've seen it's positive to book stocks and bonds there's an appetite and hope when the fed starts to peak, we'll see better returns overall. i think the downside to jim's point, average recession is 25% to 35% drawdowns on the s&p were close to 25% so maybe 10% downside from here in an average, not -- not deeper but longer session but the upside is really to% plus the risk/reward is getting more compelling if we do get more market volatility, we believe that's a position to position yourself. we think there's an opportunity to add longer duration assets with fixed income but barbell some of the defensive plays we're seeing more now than the

high quality growth going foofr forward. also to jim's point, there will be a better move in equitable and financially broader markets. >> a little bit of hope this morning. mona and jim, thank you both. >> thank you. >> thanks. when we come back, inflation in america the irs adjusting tax rates, and it will mean some taxpayers drop to a lower tax brachlkt we have t bracket. we have the details next. and we have interviews with top expectation tissues from proctor & gamble, united airlines, and nasdaq we'll also speak with amos hochstein. "squawk box" will be right back.

fsd pharma is developing new treatments for neuro and inflammatory disorders. in a breakthrough discovery, fsd pharma recently demonstrated positive effects with their drug in treating ms in pre-clinical mouse models. fsd pharma

edge and fallout from america. the irs addresses the increasing cost of food, energy, and other household statements in typical years, that could mean an incremental movement this year it would mean a shift of about 7%. it will tang effect across all tack brackets. so some taxpayers who haven't had their wages increased will get the lower rate the change will affect other tax provisions as well heirs of wealthy people who died in 2023 will not have to pay state taxes on the first $12.9 million they inherited

good news if you die this year. >> i get those calls all the time about paying for my funeral. do you get those i always ask them the same thing. i ask, do i have to die to get this benefit and they never have an answer to that no one wants to say yes to that. you do, right? >> great news, when you die. >> how do you sell -- that's a tough business. >> die this year, dad, not next year. >> consistent, really the funeral business great book. >> you don't want it to be a growth business. >> i can't joke about that evelyn roy i can't say i love her stuff because some will say i thought it was a woman evelyn is not a very common man's name. early holiday shopping has arrived but are consumers tapped

out? steve liesman will join us next. and as we head to break, the s&p 500's winners and losers >> announcer: executive edge is sponsored by at&t business at&t 5g is fast, reliable, and at&t 5g is fast, reliable, and secure uh, actually... we already do that. the plumber with the ascot! big bjorn, little bjorn, too! the caterer who really cares. every business should get the deal! we make a good team. every business gets at&t's best deals on every iphone. including up to $800 off iphone 14 pro. (♪ ♪) welcome to ameriprise. i'm sam morrison, my brother max recommended you. so my best friend sophie says you've been a huge help. at ameriprise financial, more than 9 out of 10

of our clients are likely to recommend us. our neighbors the garcia's, love working with you. because the advice we give is personalized. hey john reese, jr. how's your father doing? to help reach your goals with confidence. my sister told me so much about you. that's why it's more than advice worth listening to. it's advice worth talking about. ameriprise financial.

good morning and welcome back to "squawk box" live from the nasdaq market site in time square checking the futures, moderated a bit. still green after a couple of good sessions. we'll always have last thursday when we made that big turnaround from down 500 to 800 plus. it was the start of something, maybe not. we were talking to paulsen just now about the 10%. the chart of the 10-year -- not 10%, but of the 10-year at 4%. you can't tell where it is right now, whether it's anotheywhere a high it's right here on the thing, so it's right there. >> i heard a gayed advising

people to get a bigger house because they could get an adjustable rate mortgage i was thinking, are you crazy? >> but it's been said maybe 4. and if it was, i think paulsen's exactly right. that yield before the fed does anything, it will tell the fed what it needs to do. >> would you bet your mortgage on it, meaning i could stretch it >> 4 could go to 5 and it could go to 6 and then all bets are off about equities >> right, right. but for now, 4% seems comfortable. >> it does, but it's at the tippy top of that. you know, it hasn't shown any sign that it's at the top at this point that would just be faith-based. >> i can tell you in six months looking back. >> that's right. the countdown to the christmas season has already started, and so have worries that consumers could be tapped out before the promotions even begin. our steve liesman joins me with

morn this. this takes me back to the days you and i used to go back and forth, what was going to happen with retail and what happened with the economy. >> i feel like you were more often right, becky >> i think we were both right, but from different perspectives. he was the investment reporter and i was the retail reporter and we'd go back and forth about how the holidays were going to be. >> worries grow that spending at inflation may have siphoned the excess savings people may have built up during the pandemic they could go into the holiday season doing more saving than spending this time around. here's why it's been found that excess savings are almost gone. what had been a $6.5 trillion consumer treasure chest, the it mats are just under $650

billion. he says it's going to lead to a furtherer reduction as they rebuild their savings. i called my friend on this he says consumer spending will underperform for a period of time it could be zero or even negative in the fourth quarter depending on inflation a holiday survey by deloitte, 5,000 consumers online found overall spending will $1,455 31% plan to travel, down from 42%. a majority of those spending more or less are both citing inflation. not all is lost. big social security cost-of-living checks, they have been mailed. unemployment is low and job growth has been strong throughout the year, but the biggest thing that could save the holidays is lower inflation. unfortunately, gas prices and commodity prices going to wrong way and prices not going down

much more. christmas not canceled, but it's going to be a challenge this year, becky. that's the initial investment on the macro side. >> on the micro side, will there be promotions. people were so willing to spend. they had lots of money they were pent up. they didn't travel retailers won't have to offer any discounts. will they have to offer discounts to get them to buy this time? >> it depends on inventories if they have a lot of stuff they've got to move and it ain't moving, then you'll get the promotions there's also, you know, obviously the idea you want to get people in your store rather than somebody else's but deloitte indicated they might returned to brick and mortar store sales you may have a return to stores, people going to the actual store

to shop. to the extent i like shopping at all, i enjoy doing it in an actual store i think it's going to come down to the mood of the consumer. one other salve for the consumer is you go to credit and credit rates are much higher. unless people are going to be paying off the credit cards, i don't think it's a good economic choice and it's not good for the broader economy if we end up into the first quarter of next year credit card rates are already rising >> steve, we will continue to hash this out and talk about it for the next cupping of months thanks for the heads-up. coming up, inflation and rising rates were two of the major worries 35 years ago we're going to take a walk down memory lane. it wasn't all bleak in 1987, but we will revisit that black

monday that's the 35th anniversary -- is it an anniversary or just a commemoration, i don't know what and later don't miss our exclusive interview with united airlines ceo scott kirby after earnings beat estimates last night according to the bell. night according to the bell. we're coming right back. financially, i'm the flight attendant in that situation. the relief that comes over people once they know they've got a guide to help them through, i definitely feel privileged to be in that position. ♪♪

realtor.com. there's so many houses for sale. i definitely feel privileged to be in that position. where do we even start? ♪ the house whisperer! that's right. i was raised in houses grew up in one. now i help people find theirs. your perfect house told me you can find it on the realtor.com app. these filters narrow it down to the listings just right for us. also, this house wants you to know all the missing socks, they're behind the dryer. realtor.com. to each their home.

today is the 35th anniversary of the 1987 market crash. back then people were also worried about inflation and rising rates, similar to now the similar difference was the dollar was declining then. and former news anchor tom brokaw summed it up that day. >> reporter: a shattering 6.5% on wall street paper losses, more than $500 billion. october 19th, 1987 wall street's black monday. >> you take the three top

billionaires, they lose that now. >> daily. >> in a week first let's talk about the current state of market. well, in markets, president of merrill lynch wealth management, he oversees $3 trillion in client assets. he joins us now for a conversation about what's similar, what's different. i'm putting this on. i'm not advertising for merrill lynch but i trained with merrill lynch as i make clear again back in 1981. the reason i bring that up, we were at 780 in 1981. reagan became president. in 1987, the high that year was not 780. it was about 2750. that's the kind of five-year period that we had what were you doing then >> i was in college. >> you were in college it's great to see the bull, by the way. once a member of the thundering herd, always a member. >> i think that's true. >> since then we've had four declared recessions, five times where the market's drawn down

more than 20%. nevertheless, markets are up more than 20-fold since 1987, just to keep it in perspective. >> 1987 started at about 1800. the market gained about 43% to 700 and change and then it stayed there until about october second between october 2nd and the 16th of october, it dropped and then another 23%. that was frightening but the nasdaq is already down 35% in a slow way. we had a similar loss with the nasdaq that we had at the end of the crash that . >> joe, when you look at the markets you think of a drawdown when you see a bear market unfolding. as you said, there are some

similarities to 1987, but there's much more that's different. think about where the consumer is brian was on cnbc on monday. the consumer's been hanging in there. they've been very resilient. in and around our client base, we see innovation and many other things happening, indicative of ongoing strength in the real economy. markets are going to remain under pressure while the fed is in this cycle. when you think long temp rm baco 1987, you have to think bullish. >> it's been a long transition to wrap fees and a percentage of assets under management. but they must -- your guys must be telling you -- guys and gals -- that there's -- i don't know. it's not very exciting to be in this business that you're in right now for your guys -- i mean, is there interest in

stocks right now if you're losing money every day >> there's an excitement because you're passionate for your clients. conversations used to be buy, sell, hold all day conversations today are about planning that's what it's all about in the marketplace there are a lot of people looking for advice in the market, and that brings a lot of excitement to our business we see people around us who are realizing to navigate markets like these, it helps to have a partner, it helps to have an adviser. >> you remember there was a program of program trading and portfolio insurance. there was the conversation if you bought futures against your portfolio, you could protect your downside. but the minute you bought more, the futures would sell the cash index, it was a horrific thing it happenedso quickly. do you think it can't happen again with circuit breakers? >> i think we were at the dawn of trading as you say.

>> it's even more electronic now. what can go wrong. >> but there's a level of controls around the market today. obviously there's been an enormous focus on the understood lying health and capitalization of the financial sector, which provides strength. >> but leverage is leverage. >> i mean there's a fraction of the leverage in the banking system today, you know, as compared to certainly 2008 or back to '87. so, you know, joe, we see more differences. we were at the dawn of technology we were at the dawn, frankly, of mobil mobilization so markets as well as the economy were different. >> the economic backdrop, it's a li li little eerie this feels more like -- at least

comparisons are drawn to what we saw in the '70s, but maybe the comparisons aren't accurate. does it become hyperinflation that lasts a couple of years >> there were a series of both, you know, real economic kroy cease, of course, in the 1970s and policy missteps in the 1970s. obviously today coming out of the pandemic, we needed to throw everything at it, monetary policy, fiscal policy. i don't think we should be surprised the pendulum is swinging very wide in our markets. that's why brian moynihan and myself try to stay steady. again, consumers are hanging in there. from our standpoint, this is a very different world than the world of the 1970s energy independence is one of the main differences. >> i'm trying to glean from you what you're telling the guys and gals and what we're doing here if we're still talking buy,

sell, hold individual stocks, that may not be reaching as many >> i think for many of our clients, they love the conversation every day, but when it comes to making actual portfolio decisions, it can be a trap we need to keep them focused on meme yum anwell-established ones >> are we ready? >> yeah. >> all right we don't have a bierk sell, or hold segment anymore maybe that will come back some day. >> there's room for everything in the markets, but, you know, that long-term perspective, again -- >> my last question, are you still bullish on america >> absolutely. it was the week during the world

series with markets on edge, he said, we're still bullish on america. it had a big impact. it still resonated. >> it's higher than it was in 1987, but we didn't get back to 2750 for two more years, which was a long wait as a retail broker andy, thanks. >> thanks, great to be here. >> i'll take this off. i'm not endorsing. i had it on as a built of knoll tall. . thanks. >> thank you. when we come back, netflix surging on an earnings beat and numbers that more than doubled the expectations we have more the index up by 13%. "squawk box" will be right back.

thanks to avalara we can calculate sales tax on almost anything, anywhere, automatically. avalarahhhhh. what if tax rates change? ahhhhhh. filing sales tax returns? ahhhhhh. managing exemption certificates? ahhhhhh. business license guidance? ahhhhhh. does it connect with accounting? ahhhhhh. item classification? ahhhhhh. cross-border sales? ahhhhhh. what about? ahhhhhh. ahhhhhh. do you have those budget markups? thank you. mmhm. [bubbles]

your record label is taking off. but so is your sound engineer. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire

>> thank god we're done with shrinking quarters that's a big feeling of, we're back to the positivity, you know, obviously this quarter and the guidance for q-4 are reasonable, not fantastic, but reasonable

and we got to pick up the momentum >> that was netflix co-ceo reed hastings after the streamer reported its third quarter results including the addition of 2.4 million subscribers joining us now the former cable president. you could hear the relief in his voice on this. we are back. we're adding subscribers again does this get them to the point where the stock market can finally breathe a long-term sigh of relief. stocks up about 13% today. >> the way i would sum it up, becky, is netflix does not have a content problem. netflix does not have a cash flow generation problem. netflix does not have a linear decline problem. it doesn't even have a sub growth problem but the street thought it did and now it reported 12 million

in sub growth rather than 1 million in sub growth. now the street doesn't think it has a sub growth problem i'm not sure i would lay the future of this company on headline sub numbers as i say with disney and the other streamers. there's a lot more to these stories than that. the problem netflix has is a monetization problem it's in 130 million homes. it's the beginning of dealing with that. as you guys were talking about earlier in the show, the whole password sharing issue is one they have to solve here. they're in more home than any other television service has been in in the united states can they get all the people use i thought to pay for it. it's going to be tricky. if they can, the one real problem they have, i think, they will solve >> so if you -- i guess that's the biggest question i didn't realize it was 30

million homes that are stealing passwords on this -- >> just in the u.s. >> just in the u.s if you can get them to convert, what's the odds that you get them to convert, how much do you lose in the process of other people who feel like they're having a deal changed on them. >> certainly having a lower priced ad tier will help, introducing that makes sense they've announced the consumer friendly part of the password-sharing solution by saying people who are sharing are going to be able to transfer over their preference and is recommendations to whatever kind of sub account they're going to allow people to create here and have some kind of share member fee. i can't really picture how they're going to do this in a way that isn't going to open up the problem of people who are paying looking to become sharers rather than full-fledge subscribers.

but that to me is the issue they have i will say on their distribution front, to put this in some context, because people talk about netflix only deserves a media multiple it's no more than a normal media company at this point. when we were building capable n york city -- networks. the kind of growth that netflix has experienced over their last four quarters, they will have grown the service by 14 million subscribers. if in the building of cable networks you had five quarters where you were building 14 million sub growth at maybe 20 cents a sub where you knew 80% of the people would never watch you who were getting it distributed to, you would be having a party and here netflix is over five

quarters going to do 14 million subs at nine or $10 in terms of subscription payment and 100% of the people are going to watch you. that's a very different model. and the cable model for programming was supposedly the best media model ever invented they got something much better going if they continue on this kind of trajectory. >> tom, thank you. always great to have your perspective, and we will see you again soon. >> thanks very much for having me. we got more coming on "squawk. we're going to hear from procter & gamble and travelers hero going to be digging through those numbers. and we're going to bring you an interview with procter & gamble's ceo jon moeller it's an interview you don't want to miss. always get a touch pntn oi owhat is actually happening in the real economy "squawk box" is coming right back

fsd pharma annual annual. alan schnitzer

♪♪ i had a bad relationship with my student loan. the interest was costing me... well, us... a fortune. no matter how much we paid it was always just... there. you know? ♪♪ so, i broke up with my bad student loan debt and refinanced with sofi. turns out we could save thousands. break up with bad student loan debt. refi and you could save thousands. plus, we're paying off up to a million dollars of student debt.

enter at sofi.com/million sofi get your money right. . good morning investors are gearing up for another big day of earnings. futures pointing to a higher open once again after yesterday's gains. the president set to announce plans to release up to 15 million barrels of oil from the spr. house minority leader kevin mccarthy will join us to talk about the nation's energy policy, inflation and more plus, what the ceos of the nation's largest banks are saying about the risk of recession. the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now

♪ good morning welcome back to "squawk box" right here on cnbc live from nasdaq nasdaq in times square. i'm andrew ross sorkin along with becky quick and joe kernen. take a look at u.s. equity futures at this hour we've got some more green and things seem to be looking up is this a bear market rally, a bull market rally? what is this the dowel up 28 points treasury yields. there was an interesting comment about focusing on the ten-year as sort of a bellwether for where equities go. we're at 4.069 the two-year at 4.493. basically says if it stops moving higher, that's the sign

is that the sign >> do we have any indication it's stopping? >> i don't know. >> it's been at four for awhile. but that's the high. >> if you listen to any of the fed officials who talk, i think he said something like he wouldn't -- why would he advocate to stop at 4 1/2 if inflation continues to rise. that's what we're seeing now earnings have been strong and we continue to get earnings rolling out from procter & gamble they beat estimates by 3 cents revenue beat what the street was expecting, then you have organic sales which a key metric, up by 7% the company did cull its full-year sales forecast probably not a surprise. strong dollar has been an issue for lots of multinationals that stock right now up by 2.2%. another dow component just hitting the wires as well and this is travelers. coming in, reporting a third

quarter profit of $2.20 a share. that was well above the street's expectations of just $1.56 revenue beating the street's forecast and catastrophe losses rising from a year earlier the weird one on this, is they are talking about how, they're very pleased with their third quarter results, particularly in light of significant industry-wide losses from hurricane ian. they say that they're going to try and take care of this very quickly, that they want to meet about -- resolve about 90% of property claims rising out of those catastrophes, including this storm within 30 days. hurricane ian only hit florida on september 28th. their quarter closed ton 30th. i'm not sure everything is going to be reflected in those quarterly results. >> and it's always difficult -- travelers, over the years has -- the whole business is -- it's great when there aren't many -- sometimes catastrophes allow you to raise premiums.

it's a warped -- we talked to benef buffett about it. he loves the business $39 billion market cap maybe the lowest of the dow components but it's a -- it's something that needs to be represented, i guess. that industry in the dow but -- $40 billion market cap. >> we have a jam-packed show this morning with lots of great guests procter & gamble's ceo jon moeller is going to be joining us then we got nasdaq ceo adena friedman, plus scott kirby of united airlines and a little while later white house coordinator for international energy affairs amos hochstein. plus, we'll talk with tom peterfy. netflix, the earnings and revenue both beat estimates adding also back to additions of

2.41 million net global subscribers. up more than double the ads the company had projected a quarter ago when it had a couple of declines netflix detailed its plans to begin cracking down on password sharing next year. here's reed hastings talking about the future of netflix. >> for me, it's the overall direction of, you know, what we're doing. that there's kind of clear context for everyone if we execute down this particular path well, then we're going to win so that's a very exciting and we're on target for that >> prompting jp morgan to upgrade the stock to overweight. been a great call under 200. but has a $330 price target, jp morgan does. up $32 today almost 14% united airlines staging a premarket rally after reporting better than expected results and issuing a beat earnings for a

current quarter. the ceo scott kirby is going to be joining us later in the program to discuss that quarter. and the biden administration plans to release up to 15 million additional barrels from the spr. may consider significantly more this winter in an effort to ease high gasoline prices and says here the move is just three weeks ahead of the midterm elections. it's intended to counteract a european union embargo on russian oil that's scheduled to go into effect on december 5th we've got opec plus reportedly going to cut something i don't know what the actual number will be and house majority leader kevin mccarthy will be joining us in just a bit to talk about energy prices, inflation, much more will we be calling this guy speaker in a month >> we might. we'll see. >> we might. >> let's get to dom chu. he's got a look at the morning's premarket movers. >> you mentioned what happened with netflix, which is the biggest kind of mover in the s&p

500. but on the opposite end of things, we got the bad news. and it's generac it's an alternative energy solutions. it reported preliminary results that both for profits and revenues fell short of expectations one reason they say they're behind that move, while demand for generators continues to be strong, insulation delays have led to more dealers stocked in generator inventory. the holdings right now is down nearly 18% in the premarket trade. one of the biggest premarket gainers in addition to netflix in the s&p 500 is intuitive surgical which is up 10% right now. the maker of the systems reporting quarterly profit and sales that topped analysts estimates after yesterday's

closing well the company's flagship system saw 20% growth in the number of procedures performed in this past quarter over the same time last year. big year over year growth. we're going to check on oil and gas. exxon mobil specifically, you were referring to that with kevin mccarthy exxon mobil is getting a fractional boost today due in part to rising energy prices, but also partly because of an upgrade by analysts over at jeffries where it gets moved to a buy rating it goes all the way up to 133 bucks. they like amongst other people's exxon's position for growth in its exploration business, it's downstream which includes things like chemicals production. that and the fact that they invested while some companies have been more focused on capital discipline they think they're able to capture higher prices in the coming months and years.

becky, back over to you. >> heck of a stock so far this year up 60% for this year thank you. we're going to get a quick check on procter & gamble right now because earnings just out. take a look, stock up a little bit higher, but a little over 1%, good news on their earnings report this morning. procter & gamble's ceo jon moeller is going to be our special guest in just a moment adena friedman is going to be here to talk quarterly results as well and the ipo market is it open is it shut wh'sat happening "squawk box" coming right back with all of it in just a moment. >> announcer: this cnbc program is sponsored by baird, visit bairddifference.com.

this fall, xfinity rewards is thanking you with spooky perks and surprises. enter for your chance to win a trip to universal's halloween horror nights for a terrifyingly good time you'll never forget. or bring the scares home with movies that will frighten up your night on us, and a host of other chilling halloween activities

all on the xfinity app. explore your rewards today. xfinity rewards. our thanks, your rewards. ♪ procter & gamble out with its first quarter results just a few minutes ago. joining us now, jon moeller, procter & gamble president and ceo. stock is up, john.

difficult -- some difficult conditions that you're dealing with in fact, the strong dollar is definitely factoring into all your estimates and all the projections. that is a head wind. you've also got ukraine and lockdowns in china you've got problems in different parts of the world in terms of trying to manage results there and you've got inflation those are three major things that we're talking about anything else? >> well, listen, it was -- actually with all those things, you know, our organization did a terrific job and we had a very strong quarter, as you indicated. top line organic sales up 7%, broad growth, but geographically and across categories. from a geographic standpoint, focus markets which are developed markets plus china up 4% the u.s. within that, up 5%. our enterprise markets which are

especially the developing markets were up 16%. from a category standpoint, personal health care up high teens, feminine care up double digits, high single digit growth in fabric care and home care, mid single digital growth in grooming, hair care, low single digit growth in family care and oral care. with that, we built modest aggregate global market share and all of that plus a very strong focus on the part of the organization enable us to offset what you were referencing, 32 points after tax of headwinds with the combination of commodities, foreign exchange, transportation and warehousing costs, very strong cash quarter returns, $2.2 billion to

shareholders and dividends, $4 million in purchase $6 billion all of that allows us to have confidence in maintaining our fiscal year guidance ranges top line, bottom line cash >> all in sales were up 1% so the -- you -- the organic number backs out, i guess, some of those effects are you lowering -- >> correct. >> are you lowering both organic sales guidance and all-in guidance, or just all-in guidance for the year. you say flat to down 3% for if year but you can maintain 3 to 5% organic which is below the 7% you just posted. >> all of that is correct, joe >> complicated, isn't it >> complicated times >> so is that a -- investors do

not seem to be taking that in a negative way, at least at this point. you're up almost 2%. i think they're factoring that in also, inflation, a lot of the gains you're seeing in the sales, the organic sales you're able to post, 9% of that was -- you raised prices 9% and that offset some volume declines. >> so you're absolutely right. it was in that 7% organic sales growth, nine points positive of pricing, one point positive of mix. there were volume reductions to the tune of 3% two points of that three, th though, reflect the concentration of our portfolio in russia. holding volume with these price increases. >> okay. the strong dollar at this point, how should investors view that it's almost a one-off. there's nothing you can do about

that, obviously, as a multinational, or is there would you get involved in that business of trying to hedge risk >> we don't -- i mean, hedging just defers volatility it doesn't eliminate it so we don't spend the money to hedge we can price the offset currency moves in parts of the world, the developing world, but in the g-7 markets, where most of our competitors are domicile and aren't affected by the stronger dollar, we have to find other ways, which we're doing with the strong productivity program. >> the -- i looked at $1.57. you're going to be -- your earnings per share was $1.57 and that's the total impact of the negative forces is the same number i saw that for the year was that exactly $1.57, jon?

>> yes earnings per share were exactly $1.57. again, we had about 32 points of headwind that we had to offset we managed to offset 30 of those 32 points. we ended up about equal to a year ago on the bottom line. down 2% in total which i feel very good about and, again, with that top line strength carrying forward, we should be in good shape. >> jon, it's impressive to see what you all have been able to do that price hikes have stuck with consumers. they haven't pushed back i wonder if you're seeing any signs of trading down, because that's typically what we see as consumers get tight on cash. it will speak broadly to the economy overall. >> we worked very hard to ensure we meet consumers where they are. and so we have a ladder of offerings at different price

points and we're offering different pack sizes across a variety of channels. if you think -- look at tide pods you can buy a power pod for 50 cents a load you can buy tide regular pod for 30 cents a load, you can buy a tide simply pod for 20 cents a load you can buy 168-count pod pack and it runs $32. you can buy an 81 count in the grocery channel for $21 and you can buy a 16-count pack. we're trying to ensure we have a range of offerings that meet consumers where they are to get to the exact point of question on trade down one of the things is private label shares is a proxy of trade down we've seen very modest growth

there. in the u.s., private label shares up 30 basis points. past three and six months, flat over 12 months and europe excluding russia, they're up about 21 basis points there is some trade down occurring but we have much more capability to offer consumers within our brands. >> how are you thinking about advertising right now. we think of you as one of the large tidadvertisers in the word t what's that ad spend look like as you look out over the next 6 to 12 months and how do you see it breaking down now >> so we view this as a difficult patch to grow through

and invest in w we're stepping forward into the challenges >> you anticipate spending more money? >> we anticipate continuing to expand reach from our advertising programs, if we can do that more economically, in order to deal with some of the other -- >> it sounds like less money, jon. it sounds like you're spending less money on advertising -- >> more intentionality on advertising, higher reach. >> right but that -- where is the money moving from? who is not getting the money that used to get the money and who's getting money -- >> we're bringing in a lot of the advertising job, including media purchasing, inhouse. and so some of that money is

coming out of what was historically agency spend. >> jon, here's the headline i was talking about. the combined impact of commodities, freight cost and forex is $1.57 a share you worked the entire first quarter just to pay for the crappy headwinds i just thought that was interesting. it was exactly $1.57 is what you think it's going to cost -- >> that's a good outcome. >> yeah. i hear 'ya we just need five quarters anyway, jon, thanks for all that info today appreciate it. coming up, nasdaq ceo adena friedman joins us live at the nasdaq market site from once upon a time in hollywood. and then kevin mccarthy will

be our guest >> announcer: time now for today's aflac trivia question. according to compareitech.com, what's the most popular netflix or or original of all timeap"? yeah, he did. he's talking about expenses that health insurance doesn't cover. ga-a-a-ap! uh-uh. aflac! that's why there's aflac. it pays you money to help close that gap. aflac, huh? don't tell me he high stepping. af-lac, af-lac! he stole my move! get help with expenses health insurance doesn't cover at... aflac! ...dot com. ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪

be ready for any market with a liquid etf. get in and out with dia.

>> announcer: now the answer to today's aflac trivia question. what is the most popular netflix

original of all time the answer, "squid game. it's been streamed for 1.65 billion hours collectively. your projects done right . with angi, you can connect with and see ratings and reviews. and when you book and pay throug you're covered by our happiness check out angi.com today. angi... and done.

welcome back to "squawk box" this morning we were in the green we've turned red this morning. dow off about 73 points. the s&p 500 off about 12 points. i want to talk about the current trading environment and much more with nasdaq president ceo,

and, yes, we're in her home, adena friedman a better than expected profit and revenue for the third quarter. that's the good news but i think we're all trying to just figure out what you think is really happening not just in the past, but in the present and future what is happening? >> well, first of all, we're really proud of the result that is we delivered for the quarter again. and growth has come from all elements of our business we're really proud of that as well we think of our business in three key pillars, liquidity, trading and returned to growth in our market technology business which we're really excited about. i think that on the transparency side, corporates are looking more than ever for help in understanding how they're -- how they're navigating the capital markets with their investors, how they communicate with them, and investors need more and more modern work flow tools that's driving demand here

on our integrity suite, there was 54% growth continue to see strong demand in the need for technology. in general, the business is going well in an interesting and dynamic environment right now. >> i think the general public thinks of the nasdaq, the building, the ipos and they say, the ipo market is shut let's talk about that, what is going on, but i don't think people appreciate that the nasdaq as a business is actually so much more and different, frankly than what this is. >> yeah, and in fact, we obviously are really proud of being the home to 5,000 companies. and i think that it's a big part of who we are in our identity. but it is not a huge driver of our revenue at this point. we're a data analytics provider to the industry and we like to think of ourselves as the trusted fabric to the system in terms of ipos, we had 28 companies come public in the quarter. we're excited about that but you're right, a lot of

companies are waiting to see different times, they're waiting for investors to be able to put risk capital at work and that's not the environment we're in right now. >> the companies who are buying from you, enterprise-style products, if you will, do you feel like it's harder to make the sale, that there's more churn, that on the margin, you know, they're trying to peel back things or no? >> as of right now, the answer is, we are seeing really strong demand and customers are making decisions, they're buying the products we're not seeing shifts in buying behaviors we are looking very closely, though, at what we call the leading indicators, our pipeline and how that's developing. our company is making decisions on the normal timeline are we able to implement in a normal timeline. and so far everything is going very much how we would expect. we're keeping our pulse on that to see if there's any slowing. but we have not seen any yet.

>> when you say you're watching the pipeline and it's what you would expect, is it what you would expect with times of tighter liquidity and concerns of a recession -- >> it's been pretty consistent over the last couple of years. the demand for -- the demand for our services as well as the buying decisions are being made very consistently over the last few years. so i would say that it's not really in the context of concern right now. as i said, though, we're watching very carefully because we want to make sure we're managing the business appropriately to the environment we're in as of right now, we see really healthy demand and really -- pretty quick decisions from the clients. >> that means you can continue to invest in the businesses right now? >> we are -- we've been investing in the businessto drive long-term growth we will continue to invest in the business to drive long-term growth we're not going to ignore the environment that's around us we want to make sure that we can really deliver really long-term returns to shareholders. and so we can be pretty nimble, but we also feel like we're making the right investments in

the right areas right now. >> i thought you were going to ask -- >> no. >> about what? >> i think of this as our home it is her home it's both of our homes -- >> it's our collective home. >> we're like millennials living in our -- bring us food. >> yeah, yeah. we share breakfast, we share everything >> i'm trying -- we were up about 100 points i'm looking at yields. maybe we mentioned paulson too many times. >> a 200-point swing -- >> usually there's something -- you know what it's been recently, liz truss. just -- right there. procter & gamble is still up travelers is still up. i was kind of distracted trying

to figure out -- it had nothing to do with adena being here, i think. >> i like to think that it doesn't. >> absolutely. what is your broader, like, take on just everything in terms -- you walked in here, you said, what's going on? what do you think is going on? >> i think, first of all in terms of the swings in the market, the reason why you're seeing bigger swings in the market is investors are struggling to figure out what the future looks like. if they can't predict the future, it's hard for them to have a conviction decision to invest in a company or a sector of the markets without that ballast of those conviction positions, the markets are going to move on news a lot more. and i think that that's really what's been happening frankly throughout the year. it's hard to predict the future -- >> is your sense the fed is going to continue to move the way everybody thinks it's going to move and, therefore, things are going to be tough like jeff bezos seems to think

or is it your view that earnings are much stronger and there's a miss here? >> i think inflation is the biggest issue -- >> is it moderating at all >> if you look at the leading indicators, the answer is yes. i think it is moderating but it's going to take some time for that to flow through the entire economy in the meantime, the fed is looking -- leading signals, but they're looking at the broader prices that customers are paying at the end of the day you're talking about losing earnings power for every person in the economy. and so i do think that the fed will continue to be consistent in their approach to tamping down inflation until they see signals on a consistent basis that are slowing that inflation is moderating. i think they're going to continue to be consistent in raising interest rates for awhile now. >> there are people that are 180 degrees -- jeremy siegel said the other day, you're not -- it's the wrong numbers you're looking at in terms of shelter of inflation -- >> if you look at services, it's

risen significantly. >> there are different singles whether you're looking at the consumer sector, manufacturing the up market and you're looking at b2b software or other parts of the -- other parts of the economy, services sectors. obviously, you know, certain sectors are doing really well right now and continuing in terms of travel, experiences, things like that as people have gotten back out in the world goods that require financing, i think that's a harder thing right now, just the financing costs have gone up so much. >> do you have pricing power when you're doing b2b stuff? >> we do have the ability to have -- what we call cpi escalators in our contracts. in terms of our regulated businesses, it's a different -- kind of a different concept because we have to manage through explaining how we look at our pricing to the regulators before we take them out to the clients. so we are number one or number two in every market we're in but at the same time we look at it over the long term to say how do we make sure we're creating value for ourselves and our customers and how do we manage

price accordingly. >> thank you. >> thank you. >> good to see you guys. stop on by >> when we come back, the ceos of the nation's largest banks mostly in agreement on the chances of a recession next year we have a breakdown of some of their most recent comments let's take a look at the futures. we have seen a pull back dow futures down by 90 points. we had been up by over 100 points we got reports from a bunch of dow components they're trading higher, and yet, the nasdaq is trading lower. nna. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations, like real time cgi. okay... yeah... oh. don't worry i got it! become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq

technology lets autonomous vacuums work continuously around the house, but when your team has to work seamlessly around the world... you need more than technology. you need cdw who can help transform your organization with built for performance lenovo thinkpads. pre-configured for management flexibility and equipped with the intel evo platform. responsive collaboration tools give your team effortless connectivity to stay focused wherever they work. fetch. lenovo makes seamless productivity possible. cdw makes it powerful.

in calls, interviews and background conversations, nearly all wall street executives are in agreement, they think the u.s. economy is currently in good shape, but it could deteriorate by the middle of next year. leslie picker joins us right now with a look at some of the comments that have been made by the ceos of the nation's largest banks. we've heard a lot of that the last week or so. >> we certainly have, beck kibecky. a large overhang for the six biggest bank stocks for much of the year but take a look at what they've done throughout earnings you can see there, bank of america up more than 15%, jp morgan up more than 15%. this is largely due to beating expectations and higher guidance for net interest income, the

loan-making profitability metric that has been boosted by higher interest rates investors are focused on fundamentals these days because the ceos at the major firms didn't really say much that would assuage their concerns about the broader economy. in fact, they were pretty much in agreement that while the consumer is strong now, there could -- emphasis on could, be a recession by the middle of next year david salomon said yesterday, there's a good chance we could have a recession jane frazier said we could well see a mild recession in the second half of '23 and, of course, jp morgan jamie dimon reiterating his concerns about the risks from the war in ukraine to inflation, which he said would, quote, likely -- would be likely to put the u.s. in some kind of recession six to nine months from now those comments do stand in contrast to bank of america's brian moynihan who's saying he's not seeing factors that indicate a recession or slower spending

but regardless of what these ceos think will happen, all six universal banks, provisioned for more credit losses due to higher loan activity. guys >> yeah, i mean, leslie, they all sound pretty calm in how they're saying it. the depth of the recession is still kind of left unknown at this point it depends on what the fed does, how some things happen overseas, things that are out of our control. slowdown and a downturn is not great, but if it's not a deep recession, that's another story altogether. >> that's right. there's parts of the banking business where you would expect to see some kind of reaction for example, you would see changes to spending patterns, you would see changes to credit quality. right now what they are seeing is a dampening of confidence or ceos there's limited ipo activity those are the types of

businesses where it's kind of based on psychological expectations of a recession versus a current recession actually occurring >> leslie, thank you when we come back, house minority leader kevin mccarthy will join us to talk about the gop's economic plan ahead of the midterm elections. in the next hour, don't miss our exclusive interview with united airlines ceo scott kirby after that company's earnings beat we'll be right back. what should the future deliver? (music)

progress... (music) ...innovation... (music) ...discovery? or simply stability... ...security... ...protection? you shouldn't have to choose. (music) gold. your strategic advantage. (music) visit goldhub.com. ♪ ♪ luxury exemplified. innovation electrified. with apple music seamlessly integrated. the all-new, all-electric eqs suv from mercedes-benz.

i want to get a quick check on the markets before we get to our next guest markets have turned around we were in the green earlier this morning and sentiment seems to have shifted on us here the dow down about 100 points. nasdaq looking to open off about 140 points the s&p 500 looking to open down about 16 points. two dow components moving higher this morning despite the dow being down that's procter & gamble beating estimates with a quarterly profit of $1.57. organic sales a key metric rising 7%. and then travelers reporting a profit of $2.20 a share. revenue also topping wall street forecasts. president biden set to announce an additional release of oil from the country's stra strategic petroleum reserves it's just three weeks ahead of the midterm elections. it's intended to counteract a

european union embargo on russian oil. and joining us now, kevin mccarthy leader, it's good to see you and, you know, i can ask you a question, we're going to talk about the spr. but i can hear what you're doing to say, we're going hat in hand to autocrats when we ought to be drilling more here i know what you're going to say. the first thing i want to ask you, next year when you come on the show, are you going to be called speaker mccarthy? >> that's going to be determined by the american public our mission will be to cleanup the mess of what the democrats have created yes, i'm plugging it, because it matters, i want this election to be about ideas i want this election that voters make a decision on what direction they want america to go and one of the key issues here is, what they have done to the energy industry in america what they have done to america by making us depend. worried what russia or saudi

arabia even say. but now he's playing politics have something much more strategic petroleum oil reserve was created to help us in a time of emergency this is a political emergency to the democrats. that's why he's using it he's used it so far that it's down the lowest it's been in 40 years. if we were to have a hurricane in the gulf or another emergency, we would not be prepared he's already used one-third of it he's put america in jeopardy, just like he put america in jeopardy on the first day when he started attacking the energy industry and believe me, i believe in all forms of energy. every study even coming out of the president, we're going to need 50% more going into the future for the next 25 years so we need to expand our grid, expand our capability. that means all the above not picking unform of energy and putting america in jeopardy. >> but, leader, republicans also are very aware of how inflation

is impacting, you know, people in the country and is it a crisis, is it the kind of crisis the spr was actually designed for? probably not when you're -- you have limited options, you can see, you know, why the president has decided to do that to give some relief to individuals. >> it's not why i see that think about what the president just said a few weeks ago, he didn't ask saudi arabia. and saudi arabia comes out and proves that the president lied the president didn't ask saudi arabia not to cut production well into the future, just until the election is over it's pure political play that's what he's doing here now. why wouldn't he go to america lift the restrictions, lift the sanctions, what he's putting on for more leases, allow the development more, think long-term. why do we want to be dependent on another country let's think long term.

why don't we make china dependent on american natural gas? if you're concerned about the environment, american natural gas is 41% cleaner than russian natural gas. why wouldn't we go about making america the individual that can sell around the world. more jobs in america, lower price that you can fill up your tank and have money left over, but also not only that america is stronger, but the world would be safer >> leader, i need to ask you about this, i'm kind of surprised because all i hear really mostly is abortion and january 6th is what i'm hearing from the left. almost exclusively today they're up in arms about something you told punch bowl regarding entitlement programs and the debt ceiling that you would use debt ceiling negotiations to rein in social security or medicare and i think you were quoted that you're not going to predetermine the structural changes that need to be made, but we know that

senators ron johnson and rick scott have talked about changes to social security and medicare. this doesn't seem like something you would want to talk about three weeks before the midterms, although it needs to be talked about at some point before 2030 and we're out of money >> let me be very clear, i never mentioned social security and medicare in the commitment to commitmene say to strengthen social security and medicare. what he asked me about was just lifting the debt ceiling the debt ceiling needs to be lifted, but wouldn't it be a normal thing if we're turning $1 trillion in debt not to just give a blank check, to actually change our behavior. the democrats have spent $10 trillion the question was would you just raise the debt ceiling without having a discussion, not about entitlement but about our spending behavior right now. my question would be, we have to change our behavior we can't continue down this path i don't think anybody would think they would just go about giving this administration a

blank check. yes, i know that the debt ceiling needs to be raised i also know i'm going to strengthen social security and medicare i never brought them up. that is where the democrats continue to try to put something else out there we're focused mainly on economy that's strong, a nation that is safe, a future that is built on freedom and a government that is accountable. that is what we've talked about and that is what we work on. >> leader, what do you make of this i don't know if you saw marjorie taylor green quoted in "the new york times" magazine saying i think it's best for the speaker of the house that to please the base he's going to have to give me a lot of power and a lot of leeway, if he doesn't, i'm going to be very unhappy about it. i think that's the best way to read that. of course, marjorie taylor green is stripped of some of those assignments as you know so very well, in part because she seemed to be behind some of these conspiracies calling the

parkland shooting a false flag questioning whether a plane actually hit the pentagon on 9/11 are you going to give her more power? is she a good representative of the party? >> every person gets elected by their own districts. once they get elected by their district they will get committees no one gets to try to please a base using leverage or something to that extent i thought when they removed marjorie green that was wrong. they removed her for not something she had done as congresswoman and that is seriously wrong going forward. the democrats, we've watched them do this time and again, try to manipulate a system that benefits them personally the voters of your district have a say who comes to washington and who's representing their voice and they will have a committee to be able to have that voice. >> are you troubled by some of the comments she made prior to her election >> yeah, but if you watched, she denounced many of those comments as well.

i think that has the say in what's going forward. >> leader, in a lot of polls and polls, whether you believe them or not, but for the economy, the president and the biden administration and democrats are underwater on that we had senator mark warner on yesterday. taking the other side with him 80% were spent by president trump. a lot of the stimulus that republicans blame for these inflation numbers, that both parties share in the blame for stimulating demand to the extent where we need to raise rates like we are. what do you say to that. >> let's take a look at what the democrats did when they took over and had power of the house. they passed the american rescue which was $2 trillion.

this was at the end of covid re relief take larry summer. he warned them not to, that it would spur inflation steve rattner calls the american rescue plan the original sin of inflation. if you take any graph, you see that's where that spurred forward. they've doubled down again and again. remember what they told us, it was transitory now our own secretary of treasury apologized for saying that when they found out further. this is a continual pattern of what they have done. spending too much in a time period that they should not have >> leader, talking about spending too much, you've made comments that if the republicans were more in power there would bemaybe a different approach t ukraine in terms of how much money is spent what's the line? you said no blank check was what i read, but is there a certain amount of money? and is there a certain amount of money you'd cut it off at no

matter what the implication? >> i think ukraine is very important. i support moving forward and defeating russia but there should be no blank check on anything we are $31 trillion in debt. it's amazing to me that that is somehow made news. wouldn't you want a check and balance in congress. wouldn't want the hard-working taxpayer's money, someone overseeing it. you've got to eliminate the wasteful spending in washington and that's exactly what we'll do not just right here, it's going forward. >> i don't think anyone is disagreeing with the check on these things when you say something like that, invariably people say actually are we really supporting ukraine how much are we supporting ukraine? if that's the case, where is the line when do we stop? what are you suggesting? i think that's what people read into that, right >> see what's on the ground at the moment what do you need to go forward i think the actions of the president has been too late.

i remember in 2015 when i came back from ukraine. i went to the white house in the situation room and i had a meeting with then vice president joe biden. i brought a bipartisan group of republican and democrat members who had just come back we were advocating that washington sells javelins to ukraine so they can defend themselves so they make sure russia does not invade i remember vice president telling me germany wouldn't like that why don't we train them on the javelins and keep them in poland so they could move forward i believe we could do things, move ahead, make sure russia wouldn't see weakness going forward and cost us more money, more lives, more damage. that is what i'm talking about when you talk about no blank check. i believe in accountability. >> we've got about a minute left, leader, maybe not even so republicans have called the january 6th commission, you know, people say bipartisan with two republicans. you quickly would discount that.

if you -- if republicans take over, is there going to be the same kind of thing for hunter biden? do americans want that to be looked into to the same -- you could say it's the same thing as january 6th to what republicans say, couldn't you? >> well, i'll tell you this. we won't play politics in this process. we will follow the law we'll follow the information wherever it takes us, but first and foremost, we're going to focus on the economy we're going to make sure america's economy is strong. we're going to tackle inflation. we're going to make us energy independent. we're going to secure our borders. we're going to stop defunding the police and fund them we're going to give a rating scale to every single prosecutor and make sure they're upholding the law. we're going to pass a parents' bill of rights so the parents have a say in their kids' education. we're going to hold the kids on accountable. at the same time we're going to repeal 87,000 irs agents. >> whatever we call you in 2023,

we hope that we see you here a lot to explain what's going on. >> look forward to coming back. >> look forward to having you. >> thank you. coming up, big hour ahead. our exclusive interview with united airline ceo scott kirby we'll get the sense where the travel economy is after this white house energy adviser amos hochstein. the latest plan to bring down energy costs stay tuned, you're watching "squawk" on cnbc ♪♪

this... is the planning effect. this is how it feels to know you have a wealth plan that covers everything that's important to you. this is what it's like to have a dedicated fidelity advisor looking at your full financial picture. making sure you have the right balance of risk and reward. and helping you plan for future generations. this is "the planning effect" from fidelity.

dow components, procter & gamble and travelers. the ceo of united airlines that stock taking off after the results and open for business. related companies opening the fourth largest business building in new york city today and the politics and prices at the pump president biden ready to release oil from the strategic petroleum reserve again. we're going to talk to one of his top energy advisers of the plan as the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now. good morning and welcome to

"squawk box" here on cnbc. live from the nasdaq market site in times square. u.s. equity futures bouncing around a little bit now. down just 60 points. we were up about 100, more than 100. down more than 100 we've pared the losses a little bit. we had a sharp turn around in all three averages, the indexes. the treasury market not to blame here maybe a little uptick in the 10-year. 4.09 it was 4.06. we're talking about hundredths i don't know if that can account for anything we are watching the 10-year. we've heard if that goes for 3, 4, 5%, that's problematic. >> although some of the moves you can't explain, on thursday when we got the hotter than expected cpi number that the markets turn around and close higher on the day.

hard to explain when and why. today's top stories is earnings procter & gamble beating the street on the top and the bottom lines. the consumer products giant helped by a 7.6% boost they did cut the seven-year forecast because of the impact of a stronger dollar john moelleur joined us in the past hour. >> very strong $2.2 billion to shareholders and dividends $4 billion of stock repurchase total of $6 billion. all of that allows us to have confidence and maintaining our fiscal year guidance top ranges. >> moeller saying they haven't seen much trading down value that stock is up by 1.25%. travelers also higher after earnings in revenue beat estimates for the latest quarter.

the insurance company saw catastrophic losses rise from a year ago its results were helped by record insurance premiums and that stock is up by just over 1% as well. among the other names posting earnings, nasdaq nasdaq also saw strong demand for its various investment products as investors revamped portfolios in response to market volatility here's what ceo adena friedman told us. >> we have returned to growth in our market technology business which we're excited about. i think on the transparency side, corporates are looking more than ever for help in understanding how they're navigating the capital markets with their investors, how to communicate with them. they need more and more modern workflow tools best driving demand there. >> now to this morning's other big movers, dom chu with more to watch. >> becky, it's earnings.

the bigger headlines you're talking about are out there. other names include abbott laboratories the health care products maker everything from the buy next so s similac baby formula it's down 3% it was up earlier. also raised the full year profit guidance thanks in strong demand to medical pharmaceutical. it's swinging between gains and losses then you have recreational vehicle maker winnebago down 1.25%. it's maker of rvs, criscraft and the results were driven by games in motor home and marine unit sales that offset the sales laggards in terms of towables.

we're going to hold on sales of asml the maker of computer chip manufacturing equipment. it reports better than expected profits and sales and said order bookings reached better levels as you can see, it's a relatively mixed trade kla corp up. nvidia down by a percent or so the one to watch is lam research it's up 2.25%. it reports results after the closing bell a lot of chip stocks give it asml we'll see if lam research can validate that. >> thanks for that from chips to the skies. phil lebeau now joins us with a special guest. phil >> hi, andrew. scott kirby, ceo of united airlines talk about a wow for earnings. q3, you blow away expectations

all of the metrics within whether it's profit margin, whether it's revenue whampt did wall street not appreciate about the strength of the business >> first, the people of united airlines are doing a great job coming out of the pandemic it's on a surge in travel. the other thing is on the plus side for us, our results were obscure but we had this unique issue. 52 of our biggest wide body 777s on the ground. that had a huge impact on the operations and cost structure. now they're putting that in the rear-view mirror the core results are showing up. >> q4, what's your guidance? we know what your guidance is.

in terms of bookings, is there any slow down. i think there is a headwind, there's three trends which we can talk about that are more than offsetting that economic recessional headwind they're doable i think travel demand for airlines is permanently higher it's at a higher level those trends are not just offsetting the other trends are tailwinds that are overcome that go. >> one of those being the pent-up demand that's out there. >> i wouldn't say it's pent-up demand what's happened is hybrid work allows every weekend to be a holiday weekend. what we see in our data is there are tons of customers who because they're untethered from the office can work remotely they're taking extra trips leaving on a tuesday or coming back on a tuesday, leaving on a wednesday/thursday and working one or two days remotely that's why september was one of the third highest.

tuesday, wednesday, thursday higher load factors. people are doing extra trips they never did before because they have the new flexibility. >> is that the new normal? >>. >> book a flight on tuesday. fewer people are flying. >> that's the biggest miss on the street this is the new normal for travel they've taken trips where they've worked one or two days remotely it's an extra trip it wasn't money con straining people from travel, it was time. now they have more time flexibility and people are taking -- everyone i talk to does it. when you say this, their lives light up yeah, i've done it two or three times. it is the new normal they're untethered from the desk >> you've ramped up the international flights last summer you're doing it this summer.

you're going to have more than any other competitors, especially trans atlantic. the demand for wide bodies is so great that boeing and airbus are unable to meet what you guys are looking for right now. >> yes. >> are you a little bit worried that you see this demand there and you want more wide bodies but there's a limitation to a certain extent >> the limitation, supply is going to be constrained. another one of these big trends, both domestically and internationally. so many -- almost every airline but united retired much of their big wide body fleets those are five, six, ten-year decisions before you can reverse those decisions. they're done so the capacity on the international environment -- international is really, really strong huge demand. there's an environment where there's a supply constraint from all of the airplanes they have retired. europe was incredibly strong asia as it opens up. japan opened last week

every time asia opens up it goes through the roof >> you have a decision about a potentially huge order for wide bodies you have been clear, you're going to place it whether it's boeing or airbus, when do we get a decision >> we haven't said we're going to place an order. >> but you have made it clear. >> we have nothing to announce it is no secret we have a lot of wide bodies we are going to start retiring and we expect to replace them. >> when do we get that decision? is it likely fourth quarter or next year? >>. >> i don't know. we're always talking to manufacturers. no final decision is made. there's no rush. we want to make sure we get an attractive deal. >> one last question i have to ask you about what's happening in washington with this decision about the certification of the max 10. >> yeah. >> if that doesn't happen, if they say, look, it's not going to be certified. we know it won't be certified by the deadline if they don't extend it, don't

give it a waiver, what does that do for your plans and what do you think about how the process is fed out in washington >> the right answer for safety is the max 7 and max 10 to get certified. it's the right safety marker it's a different length. >> you don't want to change it >> changing the cockpit is a bad safety idea. we will get to the right safety. get certified with current if it doesn't at united, some of those max 10s are going to convert to max 9s and 8s and we'll buy more airbus 331s for the big airplanes. boeing will compensate us for that it's a big deal for the united states and europe. boeing is our largest exporter we should all be rooting for boeing i'm rooting for boeing and airbus we should be rooting for boeing. it's the right safety answer for this airplane.

to think if it doesn't get certified, airbus is going to build more a 321s in europe and china versus building them with american workers in seattle. >> scott kirby coming off a -- whew, what a report. q3 much better numbers than people were expected on wall street you can see it with the stock up 5 or 6%. send it back to you. >> great, scott. the largest building at new york's hudson yards opening today. new homes at blackrock, naet and ot -- meta and others. at a break check out the pre-market winners and losers. you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc

fsd pharma is developing new treatments for neuro and inflammatory disorders. in a breakthrough discovery, fsd pharma recently demonstrated positive effects with their drug in treating ms in pre-clinical mouse models. fsd pharma

our internet isn't ideal. my dad made the brillant move to get us t-mobile home internet. -which... we have to share our signal with the entire neighborhood. yeah, now we do some weird things to get our speeds. well... i'm up. -c'mon kids. this sucks. well if you just switch maybe you don't have to be vampires. whoa... -okay, yikes. oh sorry, i wasn't thinking. we, uh, don't really use the v word.

that's kind of insensitive. we prefer pro-lunar. yes, much better. pst. girl. you can do better. at least with your big-name wireless carrier. with xfinity mobile you can get unlimited for $30 per month on the nation's most reliable 5g network. they can even save you hundreds a year on your wireless bill over t-mobile, at&t, and verizon. wow. i can do better! yes you can! i can do better, too! see how easy it is to save hundreds a year on your wireless bill over t-mobile, verizon, and at&t. talk to our switch squad at your local xfinity store today. welcome back to "squawk box" futures down on the dow and s&p and the nasdaq and yields are picking up and i hear the dollar dollar's up a little as well

maybe the head winds continue. let's talk real estate it may something about our economy. jeff blau. 50 hudson yards is even. the largest building in related history. we are opening hudson yards as you said it's a 3 million square foot building it's the future home of blackrock and meta is moving into the building. vista. this building is pretty enormous and really talks about how we move through covid this building we never stopped construction we had construction workers going. you thought maybe we should just take a pause here. >> once you start construction there's no taking a pause. you have to finish it was a huge commitment from

everybody. square footage rates you're getting for this >> this building is probably the most successful in new york city it's probably one of the most valuable buildings in the entire united states so blackrock was our anchor they were a great partner in getting this building started. the top of the building we're release, average rents are over $200 a foot at the top of the building >> thetsds let's talk about the broader landscape you're seeing in terms of office big debate about whether people are going back to the office a lot of folks in new york and big tech companies were buying up a lot of space. having this conversation more office space? less office space? >> let me back into that

so right now at hudson yards we survey our tenants every day we're averaging about 70% of the people back in the office. that's probably about 10 points higher than new york city in general and it's probably a good makeup of the tenants that are at hudson yards, but if you go there and it's packed. the plaza's packed. >> we saw it the other day it's kind of crazy >> right >> it feels like it did before if you talk to real estate people and execs, tenants looking for space, the movement from is it going to be five days, 9 to 5 or whatever you did before probably not. >> right. >> david solomon was on, went from 75 to 65. i think that's probably what it turns out to be. people are four days in the office, they have some flexibility. interestingly when you talk about how am i going to build out my space which is what we talk about if you talk to the tech tenants,

they'll say, does someone really need to be in the office to program, to code, to write an investment memo when they're going to sit at their desk with tear headphones on, head down and not talk to anybody? probably not maybe there's flexibility around that, but they do need to be in the office for creativity, innovation, brainstorming, socializing. >> right when they think about planning offices, which they're doing now, we're seeing a totally different office space being created. it is percentage wise much less private office, much more teaming spaces, gathering spaces, meeting, conference. food a lot of food. you think the food piece persists. >> everybody is running like disco parties to get people back to the office. at some point -- >> it's not that it's gathering around food sitting at tables where people are working and they have coffee and whatever. >> free food is going to be a thing for a long, long time. >> i think food is a big part of getting people to the office.

>> what does that mean in terms of the prices you can charge if there's more demand than you can handle >> just to finish. so when you add up all those spaces, the lesser private office and the greater common sp spaces, the math is about the same i don't think there's going to be a real reduction. what you are seeing huge across the board in new york city and other cities across the country is a shift to newer offices with lots of amenities, great technology, fast elevators, great views and away from b buildings. if you are thinking about it from an investment perspective, you can't say how's the office market i think that's a terrible question you have to go one by one, break it down. if you are looking at the reit, which reit owns b buildings, which reit owns a buildings and divide at the same time we're leasing space for $200 a foot.

there's space that's listed at 60, they'd give it to you at 40 and they can't give it away. >> i want to talk about park avenue, b buildings that used to be a buildings inflation. what are you seeing? what are you saying? we're trying to make sense where we are >> in our business, it's interesting. we own a lot of assets, stabilized assets and we build new buildings. inflation affects those very differently. so inflation is actually positive for real estate values if you have fixed rate debt and increasing rental rates, your buildings become more valuable that's what you own today. if you try to build a building and you've got rapid inflation and you're buying commodities. copper, whatever -- >> costs you a fortune. >> costs you a fortune we have to balance those things.

high interest rates -- >> it's tougher for someone to buy the actual entirety of the building. >> our cash flows go up. people pay more for cash flow streams. if we have in place fixed debt, those liabilities become our assets >> right >> it's interesting. >> jeff, can i ask you very quickly about a new york post story today? it looks at the castle back to work barometer and it says they're under counting because it doesn't measure at some of the biggest office buildings including hudson yards it's under counting how many people are actually back. >> so there's more people. >> more people than -- >> i can tell you. we are pretty accurate because we have swipes and i can tell you from walking through the lobbies and elevator wait times and all of those things, it's full whether we're at 70 and it should be 75, it doesn't feel anything but a normal pre-pandemic office environment.

>> we've got to run. how are you feeling about safety in new york? it's a big issue and talking about midtown versus going west, do you see a real shift in terms of the balance lock term >> at the hudson yards area, all around not just what we've developed, it's almost 20 million square feet of new building it is the new center of new york city why are people there it's safe, convenient, new, clean. that's what people want. i think that's a challenge new york has, safety and security number one issue. >> longer conversation we hope to have you back congratulations on the new building. >> thank you thanks for having us. still to come, thomas peterffy will join us with the unique invooit into the investor as we head to a break, look at tech stocks on the move. meta is flat apple is down by 1.3%. netflix is the huge winner up by 11 1/2 percent this morning. stay tuned, you're watching "squawk box" and this is cnbc.

♪♪ i don't accept this. i can't do this anymore. impossible odds, save the world. i'm done. what do you have for me? a new way to transform our agency. strategy to execution. oh, looks my laces have come undone. a business card? yes, for ey. tech expertise? $2.5 billion invested. impressive. okay, you've convinced me, i'm back. just gonna... get this...

coming up, breaking news on esenbiusing market pridt den going to release oil. we'll talk to one of his top advisers about the plan coming up next mpts

. numbers for the parts.

expecting $1 million, 461,000. a bit on the light side. 4,049,000. permits, 1,461,000 a bit better than expected if we go to the history here on the start side, well, that is the weakest level just since july when it was 1,404,000 when we look at 1,564 on the permit side, 1,542 is our last look prior to that, 1,568,000 you can see the deterioration continues even though we're not on the absolute lows with respect to permits we had a sentiment number that was at 38. not very good

if we consider the split between housing starts with regard to multi-family and single, we would understand single homes have been under built. maybe it's not getting any better, 2s, 3s, 4s, 5s, 10s, 30s. if they closed it would be new cycle high closing the fiesta resistance, the dollar is at the best levels since 1990 we're going to thank you for that 186 points on the dow. what do you make of this >> i've been interested, andrew, in the equity market you've been talking a bit about this the last couple of days have seen a rise in stocks even while yields have been going up and the outlook for the fed has been inching higher you have comments that say you

can see going above 4.5% all of that is not good for equities it had been a sign of the strength of the rally for the last couple of days. it has withstood the pressure from the bond market and we'll see, i guess today if it with stands it again. the fed on the housing starts front, this continues to perplex in the idea that as rick said, we have an undersupply of housing in this country and higher interest rates make it harder for the home building industry to deliver additional supply which would ultimately bring down prices and provide the housing that americans need. maybe stop driving up prices instead, what we're doing from the other end where we're raising interest rates trying to cool the housing market. the question is how much we ultimately end up reducing demand for housing real quick, let's take a look at the fed funds future market. 4.96 i don't know if they captured

that sips we made the chart it's up two ticks for april 23 4.51 for the year end. the market thinking it has a lot to do between now and the end of the year and next spring and ultimately, andrew, this is the big story, the big tension in the market is how much of a rally can you have while yields continue to rise or be a moving target becky? >> yeah. steve, looking at the 10-year note, 4.111% that move with the fed funds futures explains the term we've seen in the equity futures thank you. we will see you a little later. >> sure. in the meantime, president biden is set to speak later this afternoon about actions designed to bring down energy costs planning to release 15 million

barrels. with us is amos hachstein. this is more of what was previously announced more questions come with this. is it necessary? is it needed >> becky, first of all, good morning. thank you for having me. the president is going to do a few things today first as you said, he's going to announce that the department of energy is going to sell another 15 million barrels out of the strategic petroleum reserve rounding out the 180 that the president talked about a few months ago that has helped bring down prices from their peak at about $120 to today where they are i think today around $83 or so for wti and a couple dollars more than that towards 90 at brent but we're also going to be announcing a second thing. asking the industry to continue to increase production and to increase cap-ex. to support that and incentive advise that to announce we're

going to intend to replenish the spr over the next several years, the full 200 million barrels we're going to set up price at 250 million barrels. >> the question. $84, still not all that objective. if you talk to any of those executives, they're worried about whether they'll be allowed to continue to go forward with some of their plans.

we do talk to them i've talked to every one of the ceos this past week and i talk to them quite regularly. so do my colleagues. i've got to tell you, they think this is helpful to them. there is no -- you know, this is like shadow boxing there's no regulation that stops them they have all the regulations, all the permits, all the leases, all the allowances to release the production they've had a price certainty they've had. it's been in the 80s for the last several months. they have every environment they need to say that maybe sometime in the future there will be a regulation they don't like, that's not a reason for stopping to invest in america

they have the cash flow. they have the ability to do it with everything that we're seeing of what russia is doing in ukraine, i think this is the time for us to increase production at home we know that other international events can take place that will restrict access to products and increase product for consumers in the end of the day, becky, it's their insecttive. if consumers have lower prices then the economy will be healthier which will ultimately support their goals. having this kind of price environment where we know what the load being and we can control the high side, i think that's exactly what the u.s. economy needs. frankly, it's what american consumers want. >> i don't know, i think the energy executives would say on one hand you're telling us to pump more, on the other hand you're releasing oil from the spr to bring prices down those are conflicting signals. >> no, i don't think they're conflicting signals. remember, just a few days ago

prices were at $93 now they're at 84. yesterday we had a major decline in prices partly because of the lead up to what the president was going to do today. we've already seen that impact in the price i don't remember when $84 was a low price of oil or 70 for that matter these prices, we're trying to bring the price down for consumers and that's what matters at the end of the day that americans can feel like when they fill up their cars with diesel or gasoline or heating oil for the winter, that it's available and it's affordable and that's what ultimately will make sure the economy is growing we talked to the companies i have never spoken to a ceo of a company that says i don't have what i need to increase from the government they may complain about the labor market or other things, but not about saying that they need something from the u.s. government in order to increase

production and reduce prices >> amos, we talked to them too and they will say even if they don't say it on the record, they will tell you that, look, this administration has been pretty clear about what it wants to see in terms of a transition to getting off of fossil fuels and that that is a tricky time to ask people to invest more money, more cap exspending particularly when their shareholders have told them they would like a return on capitol. >> let's be very clear, becky. you talk about the energy transition as the boogie man there is no doubt we do not see eye to eye when it comes to the long term of where we want to go and the global long term but we're talking about right now in the next short to medium term where we're going to be needing additional flows of oil and gas while we accelerate the energy transition we talk about movement to electric vehicles by 2030 to 2035 we know that for the next several years we're going to have to have supply of energy

resources, natural resources into the economy we know that they know that no disagreement there. so what we're trying to make sure is we actually have affordable prices for the american economy to continue to grow and that's what the president is determined to do. he is calling on them to increase production. these are short sickles. these are relatively short cycle investments on shore in the united states. >> you're talking about, what, a few billion dollars, tens of billions of dollars. >> the billions of dollars necessary to make the investments today. i don't think any of them doubt they will be recouping those investments in the price environment that we're talking about with us now coming and saying the president is saying we will buy back oil at $70, meaning there's no imminent threat of oil collapse beyond that point without the u.s. government coming in as a buyer. >> so even if oil prices -- let's just say even if oil prices fell to $50 a barrel

because of a global recession because things turned down and demand wasn't there, you would still pay $70 to replenish the spr under those conditions is that what the administration is saying today? >> what we're saying is as prices start coming down towards that 67 to $72, we're going to come back into the market as a buyer and a significant buyer at that, which means there will be a demand signal that comes in at $72 and below as prices goes down, we're going to continue to buy and to slow down that process. that is not where the trajectory of prices are going right now. we're trying to keep it from going higher and giving an incentive. we're not saying prices are about to collapse any time soon, unfortunately, but we do see that we want to make sure the companies know that if prices come down sometime in the future because of economic conditions or things happening around the world, then we will be there as

a buyer to replenish the spr which, by the way, we will need. we have over 400 million barrels in the spr now which is enough to address imminent dangers or hurricanes or other concerns but we want to be able to have an spr that can serve our national security so we're buying it because we need it and we're buying it because we want to give this incentive. look, companies have made remarkable profits over the last several months and years and we think it's time to invest those back here in america it hurts consumers so i think that that's a fair ask to make. >> and when you made this ask in the last few weeks, did big oil companies explain to them that you are going to provide, you know, this price that you would be refilling the spr, did they say that was enough to say it makes them worth their while. >> i've never heard them say it's a no. they welcome the step and it

will impact their statement on capex. most are looking to increase production in the coming months, between now and the end of the year and the first half of 2023. i expect to see an increase in 2023 this is to incentive advise them to continue the path and increase it even further. >> amos thank you. from the white house we appreciate your time. >> always a pleasure. coming up, jim cramer live from the nyse on the trading day ahead. futures right now near session lows equities trending lower as we've seen them move higher. higher than yields as we head to break, check out this morning's biggest premarket winners and losers stay tuned, you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪

introducing ihg one rewards. seventeen hotel brands. six thousand global destinations. one loyalty program that lets you guest how you guest.

welcome back to "squawk box. tonight you don't want to miss the first episode of my new streaming series "special edition. it features albert bourla speaking out for the first time catching covid twice in less than two months. we talk about all of the issues that this has created including mandates, free speech and so much more. appears tonight at 10:30 p.m. on nbc news, now on peacock you can watch it after that wherever you get your peacock

app. >> now down to the new york stock exchange with jim cramer he's joining us now. >> yeah. dr. bourla was there last night. i think dr. bourla's a fascinating character and i can't wait to see that, andrew, because one of the things that he really does talk about is what it's like you get it the second time, when you have the paxlovid. it makes me think i have that in my medicine chest. good stuff to have >> i'm not going to go there i was going to mention drug prices viagra is $78 a pill you wouldn't know that someone told me that someone told me it's still $78 a pill and i -- >> speaking for a friend. >> speaking for a friend $78. sildenophil. >> why are you asking? >> i'm not. >> did you know that, $780 for ten pills this guy told me. >> no, i did not know that

i did not know that. i admit to -- i'm new to that. chase crushed it. >> the eagles might be for real the more i'm watching. i don't want to talk betting, but last night i could not take the yankees, i couldn't do it. i took cleveland i couldn't do it i couldn't do it. >> too bad, you lost >> i know, i did guess who i did have last night, jim? phillies, baby phillies 2-0. >> that schwarber home run, it cleared and went to that good -- really unbelievable mexican restaurant one of the best -- >> go ahead. >> if you ever get mad at someone, don't do this, you know what i mean? which is what nailor i think the entire city got motivated to kick their ass because of that. that was really, really stupid like poking the bear.

>> it was stupid poking the bear. >> and then derek cole, did he not bear down after that it's just -- thanks, jim >> all in their head psychological. >> we will see you in just a couple minutes what's coming up let me see up first we're going to get a read on the retail investor invo thomas peterffy, and there's an article out that says all the day traders are back, gone home, gone back toheor tir nmal jobs, remotely, probably stay tuned "squawk box" will be right back.

vo: palantir software. empowers scuderia ferrari to make critical decisions a split second faster. palantir. data driven enterprise accelerator. ♪ ♪ we all need a rock we can rely on. to be strong. to overcome anything. ♪ ♪ to be... unstoppable. that's why the world's largest companies and over 30 million people rely on prudential's retirement and workplace benefits. who's your rock?

we're back to "squawk box. down just under 120 points on the dow. the ten-year, let's see if it is now 4.1. it was 4.09 last time we looked, and are we getting close to a peak 4.096, closing in on that dollar stronger as well >> we were above 4.1 a little bit ago. >> and there we were having a conversation about whether we were in a bear market rally. >> a bull market rally >> a bear market rally or a bull market rally, but today, we don't have a rally either way. >> no, we don't. >> let's recap some of the morning's earnings reports, procter & gamble beating the street, consumer products giant helped but a 7% boost in organic

sales although p&g did cut its four-year revenue forecast travelers rising this morning, earnings and revenue topping estimates for its latest quarter. the insurance company saw catastrophe losses rise from a year ago but the results were helped by record insurance premiums other names we heard from this morning. nasdaq saw strong demand for its various investment products as investors ran portfolios in response to market volatility. we talked to adina freedman about that we also talked about the shuttering, effectively, of the ipo markets. you would say it's not shuttering, but that's so interesting, just a small piece of the business even though we think about it in a totally different way. >> she's evolved the company over the years and that has been part of the reason for nasdaq's success to this point. we did talk about the story a little bit ago too joe mentioned it as we were going to break there's a story in the "wall street journal" that talks about how day traders have been going

back to their day jobs it was easy to make money on the way up and lots of people were doing it at this point, though, they have seen the number of retail trades handled daily by charles schwab, td ameritrade, morgan stanley, drop significantly because it's not easy to do in a down market. that's certainly happening at this point joining us right now to talk about this and much more is interactive brokers' chairman and ceo, thomas peterffy coming in with an 11% year over year decrease in trading volume. that figureis down 9% since last quarter thomas peterffy is interactive broker's founder and chairman. just watching what's been happening, down markets, this is what always happens. people pull back and wait to see before they're willing to commit i think you all have seen higher cash volumes than you've seen in a very long time >> that is correct and even though our trade volume, the number of trades

were down, we are able to maintain our level of commission income, and as a matter of fact, we have produced record revenues and earnings for this quarter, and it is thanks to our more sophisticated professional client base who basically hedged their -- many of them hedged their portfolios early on, and just recently, when the market started to dip below 3,600, they just started to cover their short positions in futures and options and spidrs so you know, it's very difficult to pick the bottom of the market, and it's generally believed that it has still a long way to go down, and so, therefore, they tend to put in scale orders where they buy back

the hedge and scale down, and they didn't have too much of an opportunity to do that since markets been rough a little time, the lows, but certainly believe that it will do so again. >> that's an interesting point your earnings came in better than anticipated, $1.08 a share, and you made the point about how your traders are a little different. your users are a little different than what you see from charles schwab or others who is using interactive brokers? what's the profile >> so, most of our customers are people who are working in the financial industry they work on trading desks and generally all over the world for the big investment banks and that's the core of our

customer base. now, lately, we have been getting a lot of buying old retail clients who tend to -- and registered investment advisors and many of those tend to buy etfs and just buy and hold customers, and they have suffered quite a bit lately, and they are now generally on the sidelines, but our basic customer base has been very busy throughout the quarter, and our trading volume went down, but the traders are -- the trades themselves are larger, so as a result, our commission income hasn't suffered. and our interest income, obviously, has spiked up because of the higher rates. and i generally believe that rates are going to go -- continue to go higher, and inflation is going to not come

down as much as it expected, so i think that the -- both interest rates and commission -- and inflation rates will settle down between 4% and 5% and we are going to look -- going to go into a stagflationary economy, and so, a buy and hold strategy is not going to be very rewarding. people better roll up their sleeves and begin to research and try to identify companies with great business prospects and good management. and that is not going to be so simple >> we are running up against a hard break we only have about 20 seconds left before the end of the show, thomas, but you think that even though we've gotten back above 3,700, we could see more pressure on the s&p? it's a much lower bottom from here >> definitely.

i believe that the bottom will be around 3,000. but of course, depending on what happens between now and then and you know, we want to leave a door open to change our views. >> that's more than 20% from here, but thomas, appreciate your time today. we hope to have you back soon, and i'm sorry we had those technical difficulties getting the shot up sooner thank you for your time. >> thank you very much thank you for having me. >> just under 20%. i don't know >> 700 to 3,000. 600 would be 20. >> right >> no, no, i did that totally wrong. >> i don't think it's quite 20%. make sure you join us tomorrow "squawk on the street" is on the street >> much less than 20 good wednesday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer and david faber. futures losing a little steam as some decent earnings results clash with a new cycle high in