nasty correction since july. that usually would help yields come down. that usually should help inflation expectations cool off a little bit it's not happening so that's why i think people are saying it's almost taken on kind of a life of its own >> we've got snap tomorrow in "overtime. first mover in terms of the ad tech plays, google, facebook we'll see you then fast is now. right now on "fast money," rates, they keep rising. the ten-year at a 14-year high, the two-year over 4.5% get this, mortgage rates at their highest level since 2001 the ripple impacts on the markets, your money and housing straight ahead >> and earnings bonanza we're going to go inside the numbers and trades for you >> and later on, profit by the barrel president biden scolding big oil for not drilling more. the white house wants more fossil fuels is that great news for the oil

stocks, which have already been on a tear? we'll dig into that as well. >> plus, more on your money and the macro markets in moments i'm brian stelton. this is "fast money," live from the nasdaq marketsite. i love it. we have a full house it's good to be here i'm a survivor tim seymour, karen and the chart master all on set. great to have you with us. whether you're on your drive home, tv, radio, we don't care we're going to do a lot more on oil and gas later on right now we're going to do the opposite we're going to start with no oil. that is tesla, the electric vehicle maker coming in strong on earnings but missing slightly on revenue shares dropping in the after hours, down about 3.5% for more on the actual numbers before the trade, let's bring in phil lebeau. >> let's start with the good news if you are a bull on tesla. they beat the street in terms of

earnings for the third quarter earning $1.05, expectation ts we 99 cents the estimate was for $21.96 billion coming in at $21.45. then it's the numbers within the numbers that get so much attention. many people focus on gross margins, excluding zero emission vehicle credits. that came in at 26.8%. most thought it would come in around 28.5% that speaks to the margin pressure that they're feeling. operating margins coming in at 17.2%. total revenue up 56% compared to the same quarter a year ago. automotive revenue up 55%. what did tesla say about achieving its annual delivery goal of growing deliveries by at least 50% annually well, they reiterated that remember, for them to do that they will need to deliver, i think, 450,000, 460,000 vehicles in the fourth quarter. the estimate is for them to

reach 1.35 million vehicles delivered for the year, which would be another 450,000, 460,000 vehicles in the fourth quarter. as for the splupply chain, they say it's challenging but improving. they also believe they're going to see improved operations at all of their giga factories. that is what they're saying in their dec and that the tesla semi truck, deliveries will start in december. that's not new news. they said some time ago they expected to begin those deliveries later this year that's what we have right now. as always, brian, it's the conference call. if elon musk is on it, what does he have to say to give people a better sense of what tesla can expect not just for the fourth quarter, but more importantly when you look out at 2023. >> how about shanghai? it's a case where, as china goes, so goes tesla. shanghai has been ramping up people are confusing demand with

production that's prcoming online. talk about that. >> part of the problem is when you look at their third quarter miss in deliveries, a big part of that is because they could not deliver as many vehicles as they wanted to deliver, and they say it was logistical concerns surrounding the operations in china. you a you are exactly right they have been ramping up production in china. the problem is, people will get these reports that the wait time has come down in china and immediately they say, oh, my god, is sky is falling, they no longer have a long backlog in china, therefore demand is slipping keep in mind, they're going to be up over 1 million vehicles in production at that plant in china within the next year i think the run rate is there probably right about now so it's one of those things, tim, you know this, people see some report and it says demand is slipping in china, and, boom, they immediately think that everything is falling to pieces there. >> yep, yep. >> phil, it's karen.

at the investor day a couple of weeks ago they talked about deliveries sort of on route. do you think that gives them confidence about the fourth quarter number >> yeah, probably. i mean, theoretically they're sitting on, what, 25,000, approximately t 25,000 vehicles that were en route they'll be delivered in the fourth quarter let me turn it around this way how do you know they're not going to run into the same logistical problems for the fourth quarter what do we see at the end of every quarter? an email to employees, all hands on deck, we need to deliver as many vehicles as possible. it's a bit of a broken record that happens at the end of every single quarter so you may have some confidence that they have these already en route that will help them with deliveries in the fourth quarter. how do you know they're not going to run into that same issue at the end of december >> we're going to wait for that conference call, phil, and see

if elon musk jumps on it as well i have a feeling we will see phil tomorrow morning on cnbc tomorrow morning as well just a wild speculation on my part thank you very much. i want to trade this, and, carter, i'm looking at your charts because they send us your charts ahead of time i mean, i'm no technician, but that's an ugly-looking chart. >> isn't it? >> i mean, am i wrong? that's my technical analysis. >> well done. >> sometimes they're very clear, sometimes very not clear but this is a fairly clear circumstance, a great winner what stock goes from 12 on its low to 415 in this market cap and is down 50%. the question is this, for the past three years the burden of proof has been on the bear i don't like tesla as it goes higher now it's switched. the burden of proof is on the bull the bear points to you're down 50%, underperforming the market and they just put up results and it indicated lower in the night

market >> it's interesting, we've made quite a bit about should we be looking at gross margin, operating margins, excluding or including the credits. i think the emissions credits have always been part of the tesla story and they've been pooh-poohed for it, but i'm hesitant to say that they should necessarily be viewed through the same lens as a ford or gm when it comes to that. they have been a leader in zero emissions and that has always been part of the business plan one thing i will point out and i'm in carter's camp, you've got to look at the sales numbers this is a name that trades on price to sales, ev to sales. it's still very much a growth story. so while i do think you have to concentrate on the operating profitability of this company, without the growth, and they're calling for 50% growth, without that this doesn't trade at this multiple so that revenue miss to me is not immaterial it's kind of glossed over. bu at the end of the day this is still very much a gross story. >> can we bring the chart back up any support?

what numbers are we looking at here >> so this is actually, what you're seeing is the all data chart since the ipo and we blew out through the top of that very well-defined channel and now this top formation, we will sink into it for the first time since the blow-off tomorrow morning. there isn't really any support. >> and i would just say that as much as -- i agree with carter's charts like everybody here i will say that it's been easy to point at tesla and say it's been a major under-performer relative to the june lows, it's in line with the market. it overshoots on the way up, overshoots on the way down and it's basically on a relative place to where the market was at its june lows, tesla is there. but talking about it in pe context and fundamentals, i'll let these guys do the technicals, at 45 times you still have some issues if you're looking at this company now and saying, hey, are they working out the logistics, i'm going to say actually the burden of proof may be that the

economies of scale for this company in terms of gross margins is probably moving higher and that's actually what people want to see i am not bullish on this stock i've been bearish for a long time and largely wrong this is not the time to jump in and buy this stock from a fundamental perspective. >> i don't have a great genius insight on tesla, but i want to add this point this has got to be one of these companies that frustrates the hell out of investors. people love the product. someone that owns a tesla, they're an evangelist. sales are unbelievable, rev lug revolutionary leader and the stock is getting crushed but not outperforming. it's one of these situations where we love the product, whateverit is, the stock is just having trouble. it's got to really be frustrating for the average investor. >> well, the average investor, if they've been in it any amount of time since its beginning, they've probably made money. i have not i haven't drunk the kool-aid ever i always found it to be

incredibly expensive, left tons of money on the table. it's similar to netflix in the idea that people -- >> or early amazon. >> where it trades at just a crazy multiple that you can't really ever justify, and ultimately those things do come down we saw netflix go from $700 to $170. >> my point was kind of like the lesson as an investor, like peter, i love the product, sales growth is unbelievable, everything is going great, why am i down 50%? for a lot of people it probably doesn't make sense. >> it's a function of the fact of how good a performer it was how many stocks go from $12 to $415 in two and a half years tim makes an important point and it should be talked about more tesla is back to its june low just as the market is, but the difference is that when it rallied in august, tesla is down 35% from its august high meaning it took more money in

capital in and that money is reversing itself it probably breaks. >> and, again, i'll get back to, what are the catalysts because we know on this desk that two major catalysts for this stock over the last year and a half to two years were the stock split and s&p inclusion. yes, some delivery numbers and profitability and this is where, again, i think the company has actually shown that they can scale. but i don't see the catalyst here i see a whole lot of competition. if we're believing in the ev story and judging them on deliveries and margins, it sounds like a car company to me. >> don't say that. now you're talking a totally different valuation game. >> i hear you. although, you can make an argument that the reason that ford and gm trade at multiples that are six and seven or five and six right now is because their internal combustion engine business isn't given any value that's why they are so cheap, because the ev side is worth so much more. i don't agree with that, but tesla as a car company, it's

time to start paying the piper and this is not a valuation you want to own. >> they had to come back from bankruptcy restructuring. >> if you slap a vw or gm or toyota multiple on this stock -- >> certainly you are, but then you're completely discounting the battery ingenuity. >> i'm not saying we should do it >> to tim's point, if people start to look at it like a car company -- >> well, the car companies aren't valued on all of their parts either so you don't want to swing the pendulum to the other side. >> are you defending the valuation? i'm just curious do you think it's worth owning or no? >> no, i don't, but i do not think it should trade at the same multiple of a historical ford or gm. >> that's quite a chasm. >> it shouldn't trade at 45 times. >> what do you mean, there is no value? >> was it expensive when it went

from $12 to $24 and then to $100 valuation one of the worst timing tools known to man. over time it works, something is cheap, it gets cheaper there is no valuation for tesla. >> once you get carter a main seat on this desk, he is fighting >> he's mild-mannered remotely he's got those velvet pajama pants, the smoking pipe. >> let's bring in gene munster you've been sitting there champing at the bit listening to this is anything we said inaccurate that you disagree with you can go right after tim >> i might go after everybody on this case. >> easy to say remote. >> easy to say remote, agreed, brian. they missed the production -- or the delivery numbers by 4% back on october 2nd they missed revenue by 2%. asps were 4% below

when you have a growth story and you use the word miss, that means the stock goes down. that's what we're seeing in the after-hours. and so i would start with there is a problem here, there's going to be a rethinking about what asp is they were down 4%, as i mentioned. that is kind of -- really you have to think twice about that because of what's going on with the overall world and inflation, and the ramp of production in china as tim had mentioned but the piece that maybe i would have a different opinion on versus i think most of the esteemed trading panel, is that valuation, i think carter was talking about this not being a useful tool. it's a useful tool if you have predictability about where things are going this is where i'm going to be different. i don't drink the kool-aid, i try to take just a very logical approach to this i think at the end of the day,

they're going to go from $120 billion in revenue at the end of 2023 to probably $400 billion in 2 2026, 2027 it's going to be a huge ramp i think that traditional car companies are just in a tough spot it's something that i've said. we keep talking about competition. we keep talking about other players going out and having a significant market share vw has done a great job but the rest of the auto industry hasn't just because ford comes out with an electric 150, i think the expectations from those buyers are going to be this is going to be a tesla-like experience, be able to charge it when you want to, have the software updates. and i think two or three years from now there's going to be disappointment i think what tesla has done, i think rivian is also in a great place, i think that gets missed in a day like today. i think structurally this company is going to grow 50%, 40%, much faster than i think people are giving them credit

for today. >> also when you're getting 120 miles to a tow on an electric truck, a lot of people who tow are not going to be happy with that i want to talk about the options. i have said for years on cnbc that my buddies who work at hedge funds, tesla is not important to the market, maybe one of the most important stocks in the world, because of all the options activity it generates and that is tied to it do you agree with that do you think that tesla has an equity, maybe not to an apple level, but has an impact on the market >> it does and you mentioned delta one and options traders and those are two different things. >> i'm talking about the baskets of synthetic equities. >> financing, that market, that's where it's extremely important. as long as it still is going to be -- >> i try to bring up important stuff occasionally. >> that's right, as long, and tim, maybe karen mentioned the inclusion in the s&p that allows it to trade like a

general collateral, like your t typical run-of-the-mill name if it stays there, the implications are very robust if that changes, all bets are off. and i would say that would be the first shoe to drop that would be what i would be looking for when it comes to valuation or anything else. >> we're a little in the weeds there. >> and the only thing that might take it there, because from an earnings perspective and accounting perspective, they've done what they need to the, the elon risks, things you can't really quantify. corporate governance is important. >> we are just hitting the gas pedal. gene is going to stick around, listen to the conference call. shares of allstate and ibm are on the move. we're going to get details from their quarters as well contessa brewer on las vegas,

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welcome back to "fast money. investors are not in good hands on allstate. insurance company just pre-announcing third quarter results, shares plunging, down 8% contessa brewer covers insurance for us as well and joins us. what is going on at allstate >> they just dropped results on us it looks like we're looking at an adjusted net loss of as much as $450 million. let's really focus in here, brian, on catastrophe losses, expected to be $763 million for the quarter, and that's after re-insurance kicks in. look, in florida, allstate only has 2.6% of market share for these personal property insurance policies in florida. so 25% of what they saw coming in from ian was related to

property lines and 75% in auto coverage what they've said is that the inflation related to both of these is significantly adding to their costs. we know that house values have skyrocketed in florida and so if you're paying someone to replace the loss of their home, the costs are significantly going to increase, not only that they're looking at bodily injury costs where it comes to auto insurance increasing as well because of medical inflation. they say the estimated catastrophe losses for just the month of september when ian happened, $440 million they are expecting to have some re-insurance kicks in for those policies as well, but a tough, tough quarter for allstate here and the shares right now in extended trading reflecting that. >> it's a little surprising, given to your point that you just made, they're only, what -- you said 2.6% of policies? >> yeah, but the damage -- remember, you're looking at now insured loss frs ian as much as

$70 billion. we just heard from travelers today which had about a half a billion in catastrophe losses this quarter as well and the ceo of travelers was very clear that the insurance market in florida is now threatened in other states as well he says, look, skyrocketing litigation it accounts, florida accounts for 9% of the property claims but almost 80% of the lawsuits nationwide there is skyrocketing fraud, and what they've seen is that the regulators are keeping premiums artificially low it makes it very difficult for insurers to operate in florida and that's likely to spread elsewhere. >> i will say the stock is still higher year-to-date, at least going into now >> it should be. great reporting by contessa. she's outlining the cross-currents for the sector. there's great tailwinds for insurance, it should be

recession resilient, if not recession proof, rising rates actually help their investments. the flip side is not only ian and rising fraud and insurance claims, but also alternative investment losses. we're hearing what's going on with uk pension funds and insurers here are running into some dynamics, the volatility in bond markets and aaa return profiles they're investing in are things you have to worry about. so i think these kinds of pullbacks are worth taking a l look at. they've dealt with ians before i think pricing power and insurance are more unique to these times right now. >> if you look at it relative to the other property and casualty like travelers and progressive, it's been a chronic under-performer. i think this is more reason not to have this certainly if you're in the business. >> we'll see how much re-insurance might be able to make up some of that. let's move to ibm, the stock

is up right now about 4.5% ibm did beat on earnings but only sort of because they beat on lowered expectations. frank has been listening on the conference call. frank, good evening. what are you hearing >> the ceo on the call right now talking the multi cloud and ai strategy, an acquisition from 2019 seeing revenue up 18% but you mentioned the stock moving higher. the guidance raised by ibm appears to be the reason it's moving higher in addition to earnings beats the rates was nebulous but optimistic the company kept free cash flow guidance with more than half of revenue outside of north america. and it was a broad-based beat. software gets about one-third of revenue, and with labor costs on the rise a notable beat for consulting if you are looking for something to be critical of, the eps beat 4 cents above today's estimate, but that came on lower expectations just two months ago the eps

estimate was $1.91, also amiss on pre-tax margin. and speaking of nitpicking, you said champing at the bit are you chuck rhodes from billions and strange things are at the circle k you said champing at the bit. >> what did i say? >> you said champing at the bit. it's chomping at the bit >> you champ, you don't chomp. >> i'm going to defend brian >> is it champ we're going to do a "fast money" poll strange things are afoot at the circle frank, thank you very much that is the proper quote, i believe, from circle k. >> it's all good i think the most important thing to remember about ibm is this stock has been defensive because it's been such a low volatility mover in terms of the top and bottom line. you're basically down 3%, 4% on total return over the last ten years. it's not a reason to chase it. >> one thing that i will say, you can look at, you know,

valuations and say, okay, this is more or less in line. but this company has generated about $7 billion in free cash flow over the trailing 12 months that is the lowest free cash flow generation since, i believe, 2001. if you're looking for a defensive posture, you're looking for cash generation, you would think that this would be a bellwether that's able to achieve that just to give a relative value or perspective in terms of how the performance truly is, it just hasn't lost to the extent that other pockets of the markets have. >> that's where we are now in this market. it's not down as much as everybody else not down a lot is the new good. >> the smallest loser. >> let's talk about valuations this is the same net income at the end of this year as it was in the year 2000 do we give that a four multiple? give it a 12 >> they've spent so much money on buybacks, that had they not done that, i don't know. >> it was a $202 stock in 2013

it's $122 now. pull up a ten-year chart all ibm has done is basically -- >> it's underperformed the market in absolute terms by 74%. how is that? and just in terms of total return on its own, it's down 3% or 4%. so even if you count re-investment of 3% to 4%, 5% dividend yield, it doesn't do it for you. we've used this metaphor too many times, turning this boat around is glacial. >> there is a lot more to come on "fast money" on this wednesday night. here's what's coming up next >> pot at the pumps? one gas station chain filling up on cannabis products and the deal has shares rolling higher the details next >> plus, treasury yields soaring to near 15-year highs. mortgage rates at their highest in two decades what the moves mean for the

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false positive and negative results may occur. ask your provider if cologuard is right for you. consider it done. sending this out to everybody at ridgemont high. if you thought gas prices were high, wait until you hear this cannabis company green thumb is striking up a partnership with circle k gas stations. yes, you will be able to buy cannabis in some cases at a gas station. tim, obviously more distribution what do you think? >> are you in this class >> i am today. and i' the sector today and i'm in ther for the longs thredh

circle k and cannabis space, and green thumb is the second largest position inabis etf, this is any when ita company who did not have a to ry increase the ten-store commitment but to rapidly increase and aggressively increase in potentially asset-like fashion it starts to give you the idea of what cannabis could look like on a national retail scale and that's something that i think when you consider circle k, you consider the quality of the strategic, they know how to position, promote, get buyers in very sophisticated highly compliant industries think about what they do with tobacco, alcohol this is a case where partnering with cannabis i think is very good and this is what you want if you're a cannabis company and it's a smart deal and i think it

paves the road for other ones. >> the question is, some gas stations sell sushi, which is never a good thing if you go in and can get your pot, that might increase the bad sh sushi eating it's bottoming, i like it. >> it is bottoming >> that's a good combo >> you say the sector is bottoming? >> no, the green thumb the chart itself we might even have it here but a well-defined bearish to bullish reversal. >> tim has been a leader in the space. i have it in an etf. that's my preferred way to do it because i frankly don't have the time to do due diligence on individual companies i do believe in the secular trend and one way that i am playing it or i think someone should look at playing it is constellation, which i think gives you exposure without the

specification or the specialization, but also gives you a bit more of a diversified approach if you aren't able to do the homework like my man, mr. seymour is >> you're going with the red wine and with the cannabis. >> jack in the box and everything is solved. >> and sit in the passenger's seat, please. >> that's a real deal. >> of course it is i think that's pretty clear with alcohol and other products that these places sell, that any place sells. that's what they're promoting. >> and if i'm here and you're here, doesn't that make it our time >> it does coming up, stocks snapping their win streak as rates rebound and more tough talk comes out of the fed we'll get more on the macro markets. later on, snappy options the social stock fighting off today's sell-off, snap actually doing something it almost never does, and closed hheigr.

we'll get the options action on

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welcome back to "fast money. we had a nice win streak in the markets until today. we closed down don't want to make too much of

it the nasdaq, the bigger decliner, down 0.8%, the dow down 0.33%. stock fell as yields on pretty much every government bond rose and that's been a trend we've been seeing a lot of yields up, stocks down the yield on the ten-year note now hitting its highest level in more than 14 years, 4.14%. it is nearly three times where it was a year ago. of course probably artificially pushed down due to covid mortgage rates, get this, mortgage rates also on the rise. the 30-year fixed rate mortgage for the average borrower, 7.22%. that is a 20-year high mortgage applications, of course, have been plunging and home builder stocks are dropping in response. the xhe etf seeing its worst day in over a month. karen, here's the issue. these stocks are interest rate sensitive, but was that an overreaction it feels like new home builders

have a capability to manage higher rates than like me trying to sell my home if i've got a fixed cost i can't sell it under. >> i'm not sure about that the fixed cost you can't sell it under. i think clearly they trade obviously, you know, witme builders, homebuildi general, lowes and home depot.l the housing market to get inflation under control.ee of t beginning. historically fed funds are still historical, near thetom. it's been painful but i'm sticking it out with home depot and lowes. >> at one point the spread between itb and hxb was over 1%, which tells you that it's the builders themselves that are viewed as being at risk and it's that home decor adjacent that's

viewed, at least within that sub-sector as being safer. >> you're right, totally today felt different, it felt kind of weird because lowes and home depot were kicked around, too. and two-thirds of lowes sales are repair and refurbish they're not necessarily a new home builder dynamic people are staying in their homes, they're going to put as much money into them as they can. it does feel like there was some assessment and the fed fund futures rate is up to just about under 5% and you can see it also moving out a little bit. the terminal rate peak was in april and it's now tied with may. it gives you a sense that people think rates are moving out even a little bit higher into the future in other words, we haven't hit that place where they plateau. that's been the development over the last couple of weeks. >> most of the home builders on my screen are higher this month, carter why did the market care that the 30-year mortgage is at 7.2%

versus 7.1%? that's kind of the point i'm trying to make does that matter, 0.1% >> if it really gets going home builders are get worse if you think about the housing bubble, we peaked in '05, home builders peaked before the so-called bubble peak in late '06. and the move over the last year and a half, we went 100% above the housing bubble now we're right back to the '05 level. i think we're going to basically sink through it. >> if you're listening on the radio, we would say that chart is ugly. >> let's get more on interest rates with steve liesman we saw easing of supply restrictions, fed funds futures are pricing at a high terminal rate what gives what can we expect >> you know how it goes. seymour says it and we make a chart on it. the chart will show you just exactly what timmy was talking

about, and you'll see that we're on the april contract, we're at $497 or kissing $500 if you want to call it it means a good percentage of the market believes it's going to be 5% when that finally hits 5%, it's 95.03 now on the price. you can see the market thinks the fed has got a bunch more work to do that's two 75s, at least, and then i guess you dial in another 50 for the spring of next year and then they think they're done and may go the other way, but increasingly less so when it comes to that january 24 contract that's come up-and-up and up and closer and closer to no change i've got a chart on this, too. take a look at the supply disruptions, easing, relenting and less severe were some of the words that were used along with

it, getting back to inflation. they say cost pass-through is more difficult because of consumer pushback and some easing, labor still tight but some hiring freezes. so remember the beige book guys, you may not remember this, march/january 2021, they were early in calling the supply chain disruptions. i thought it was interesting to see they're seeing some easing and will want to see follow-through to see if that's going to be the reality in the economy and begin to color how the fed thinks about supply disruptions and the associated inflation. >> i wonder if the debate is turning. i wonder if the debate is turning from -- because there's kind of this -- tell me if i'm wrong. there's an expectation that once the fed is done raising, it's going to start raising the point today was pretty much the fed may stop raising, but they may not cut for years

is there a consensus on this >> if you told me you were going to talk about that, i would have brought the quote along. i was looking exactly at it earlier today. the quote is, i think that rates need to go to at least 5%, when they get to 5% it's still not going to be enough we're in for stagflation and we're going to slow down at that point. he talks about recession after that but brian, it's interesting, because i don't know which part of hike and hold people don't quite understand the fed has been very, very monolithic about this when it comes to what they're going to do they're going to get up and hang there until there is what they call sufficient evidence to bring it back down it may be -- john williams told me a few months ago that it wouldn't be crazy to tweak on the edge once they got to their peak rate, up a quarter, down a quarter, whatever. but ultimately they're going to hold until they stamp out the fires of inflation >> there you go. higher rates, 7.2% mortgage.

you wonder what it means for folks in michigan and shreveport, louisiana, it sure matters. thank you very much. coming up, calling all social butterflies snap is on deck to report tomorrow do you care? we'll talk about snapchat coming up. >> plus, oil on the go what is behind this recent leg higher we're releasing more oil and all oil stocks, and all oil did was rise today. do not miss tomorrow's cnbc virtual disrupter summit scan the qr code on your screen to register. "fast money" back in two - [narrator] usiness kept on employees through the pandemic,

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♪ ice works fast... to freeze your pain and your doubt. ♪ heat makes it last. so you'll never sit this one out. icy hot pro with 2 max-strength pain relievers. i've got some headlines out of tesla's conference call elon musk is on the call gene munster has been listening in what are you hearing that's piquing your interest? >> elon is on fire tonight he came out swinging like he typically does on the call he said december is going to be an epic quarter. the company cannot keep up with demand as fast as they make them, they

will sell them then he went off into his philosophy mode and talked about where this company can g the long term, he said -- he referenced a timldted that thinking and says he sees a path where they can be -- tesla can be bigger than apple and saudi aramco combined. currently tesla's market company is $700 billion. i would take the under on that over the next five, ten years. i think what he's trying to do is use every measure possible to reiterate his confidence and then he added he'll do some form of a share buyback between $5 billion and $10 billion over the next year. >> gene munster, thank you very much. shares of snap getting a small boost ahead of results tomorrow options traders are feeling

bullish. a stock, scott, that'sown, what, 70 yeah, it's had a reall. but, brian, the big trade today was of as a single lot 6,500 of the 13 strike calls expiring this friday so this is purely an earnings play, you mentioned they're going to report earnings tomorrow the call buyer paid 38 cents with the stock just below $11 a share and somebody thinks that earnings are going to be fantastic, because the break-even for this trade, $13.38 that would require a rally of 22% and the broader snap option market thinks that the implied move between now and the end of the week is only 10.5% so somebody really thinks the earnings are going to be fantastic.

brian, they only pay $247,000 total, but in the pit we would have said they paid a quarter of a million dollars for a lottery ticket. >> well said scott, thank you very much. for more options action, tune into the full show 5:30 every friday at eastern time coming up, oil and oil stocks both rising as the white house sells more oil from our emergency reserves good day for oil stockholders. don't miss the first episode of "special edition" with andrew ross sorkin ght.

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let's talk oil and oil stocks oil on the rise, oil stocks on the rise a good couple of days even as the white house said today that they want oil producers to produce more oil and the spr getting released again carter, you say press your bets on oil and gas how come >> i think so. so a couple things for starters, there is this talk that oil is down so much oil is still $85 a barrel. that's a great price as an operator in the business but the main thing is this, energy stocks act well they made all-time relative highs since the pandemic low today to the market. the chart here on your screen is

up and to the right. what's not to like >> karen, you like that. >> yes, i do like that i love carter's charts, especially when i agree with them so i've been looking at the oih versus the commodity oil and i think we have that, just before russia invaded ukraine we saw that it diverged a lot, converged with the dollar-for-dollar trade on long oih, short the commodity that ended up working. we took it all off and then it went up 10% in the last three or four days. i still have oih but i want to expand into the lxe. >> if you look at drillers, the rig count, we're around 890. a year ago we were around 770. if you look at hydro frack rigs, we're at 250 we were about 20 last year the business and the profitability in the business for companies that are better run than ever, so oil services have not been as profitable as the integrateds and it's time to start breaking out most of these companies are

valued at $70 oil or less, not the $92 or $103 it's averaged for 2022. >> today the uk voted to not ban fracking again, which means they could open it up, which would be very good news probably for bkr, like 50% of the oih. up next, your final trade. you'll always remember buying your first car. and buying your starter home. or whatever this is. but the things that last a lifetime like happiness,

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final trade, let's go around the horn >> emergency, exxon has earnings coming up in a couple of weeks about to get to all-time highs it's not 2005, not 2008. the free cash flow generation is extraordinary. >> i agree with every single thing tim just said and i agree with carter's chart. staying with oih as well >> are you in the oil pit? >> i'm sticking with stz because you can get all of their products at circle k >> stz and carter, you've got a lot of time for the final trade. >> the hit parade keeps coming after hours allstate down, tesla down stay short >> brian, you're going to be hosting a charity event in times

square tomorrow night. >> tickets still available, a great cause for a leg to stand on hard rock cafe right here, still tickets available. great mobility for kids, underprivileged kids in third-world countries. check it out we'll see you tomorrow everybody, thanks for watching my mission is simple to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. theres always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends, i'm just trying to make you some money my job is not just to entertain but educate and teach you so-call me at 1800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer. if we're reall