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tv   Mad Money  CNBC  October 19, 2022 6:00pm-6:59pm EDT

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tickets available. great mobility for kids, underprivileged kids in third-world countries. check it out we'll see you tomorrow everybody, thanks for watching my mission is simple to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. theres always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends, i'm just trying to make you some money my job is not just to entertain but educate and teach you so-call me at 1800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer. if we're really headed for a ver recession, we have to change what we own including days like
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today where the dow slipped 100 points and s&p shed 6.7% and nasdaq fell 8.5% after two good days for the bulls, we're right back in the bear soup. something really caught me today. the street, meaning the collective people of research, talent is approaching this gut wrenching moment with a two-faced attitude on one hand south side analysts that cover individual stocks keep pushing richly valued companies including many unprofitable ones. on the other hand, the top down research director is focused on the broader economy. they want you to know a recession is coming so avoid that exact type of stock like the plague. >> the house of pain. >> meanwhile, the stocks hold up best in recessions are lost in the shelf and highly qualified -- the high quality
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well capitol utilized companies with good balance sheets, good-bye backs, meaningful dividends and buying for my travel trust are household names. that's why we need to explore this really bizarrapparatus pushes stocks to get we explaint are these analysts just out of their as the stock market peaked less than a year ago, the brokerages that pumped up expensive ipos and sold them don't seem to understand their era is over. at the same time, the top down calls at the same firms do seem to get it. at least for the most part they know the fed will raise rates aggressively to stamp out inflation with dire consequences
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for the stock market the two views are very much at odds and i'm afraid you'll get hurt what do the chief strategists see that individual analysts don't? every time the fed raises rates, every time, earnings for 2023 have to go down. see, they're in charge of trying to figure out the estimates and what they think big fund managers should pay for those earnings they recognize days like today where interest rates go up, raise the odds for recession and a recession, the earnings estimates are heading lower. rates go higher like today, day stocks give up their top down directors can't be whr the federal reserve officials to start talking about the need to pause the relentless rate hikes is upon them if that happens, the beaten down growth stocks willn and brorage
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firms don't want to be cut down. costs are e fed really cares and housing. not work from home as long as there is no dent in those three, the fed w rate hik. we have officials saying it today. every time they talk about how inflation is raising, rates go up in lock step and when rates go up, earnings estimates have to go down it is becoming a vicious cycle lower. now, let switch back to the individual analysts. until this year, we had remarkable number of take advan of the booming market an redid electric tesla plays the stock down because the company missed top line estimates. even as it also beat earnings expectation for the eighth
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straight quarter this would have sent tesla stocks screaming higher. our instinct is to look for something wrong with the report like in this case, maybe the chance that elon musk might have to sell some shares to pay for his price in twitter acre ses -- acquisition. they created tech stocks because of the success of square and a bunch of point of sale businesses they raised money for enterprise software plays and invitational sales like workday and service now. those are the favs of big paying client venture capital firms they back retail outfits and internet businesses and biotech and drug companies they lapped up because big pharma acquired them and created many fangs because the real fangs made so much money facebook, amazon, netflix, alee didn't do was care if these companies were money losers. they didn't care that they
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weren't profitable they didn't need to worry because once they came public, their stocks would inevitably go higher and sell for they should have cared, though because as they were doing this, the fed decided enough was enough they took a way the punch bowl and aggressive series of rate hikes to tame inflation and stocks went down, research is a small part of the make more money bpublic ipos are a huge business for them but that speclosed they will be in dire straights if inflation doesn't cool down analysts and brokers, the analysts, this is the problem you see. they don't want to accept what i just told you. they just keep promoting these kinds of stocks.
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i know they're not supposed to operate like this anymore. the analysts are independent but i can't come up with more reasonable explanation they're trying to juice the investment banking side of the business or useful idiots or maybe a combination of the two maybe they are of ticosting evee fortun do best in the environment, where we have a recession but prices hold up for many businesses. what am i talkg and talked about how they had billions and billions of dollars of cost inflation. if the fed wins the battle, those costs will go down and if they can hold the line on pricing at the same time, their earnings will sore we own proctor for the travel trust. big position, this is what historical works going into a bad economy and bi've been through many periods we heard the same thing from j&j
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and bristle myers, coca-cola and eli lilly. those don't make the investing banking much money and sponsorship unless those companies decide to make acquisitions or break themselves up like j&j. the analysts keep promoting the money losers even as the research directors warning and tell you to stay away. because these are going to be gutted as the economy slows down meanwhile, nobody is championing what actually works. these consumer package names we know with high yields, big buybacks when i went through proctor's quarter this morning, they talked about $3.9 billion. 3.9 billion. i bet those costs would be reduced. at the same time proctor has brand power. they rarely lose business to trade down competitors even in a recession they have an amazing research and development arm with very sophisticated targeting advertising. they won't bring much business to an investing bank
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for a full year i railed against a richly valued stanc i want to chalk this up to hope, not selfishness. when you get an amazing quarter and so many old packaged goods companies and stocks with good balance sheets and good yields, nobody cares, i tell you it tries my patience severely ian in illinois, ian >> caller: jimmy chill first time long time how you doing? >> you know, i'm a little unchill tonight but i got to do my best. what is going on >> caller: that's all right. i got several friends using dexcom that's my question tonight i know you said it expensive but diabetes is going nowhere in a recession. buy, hold or sell? >> it is expensive but the world of dexcom and they have the best -- they do have the best machine. and so therefore if someone wants to buy it, i'm not going
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to be against it but recognize these very expensive stocks have had a very hard time in this market all right. listen to me, when you get an amazing quarter from proctor and gamble like we had today and nobody cares, well let's just say i'm steamed. netflix reported anything but chill and i'm running through the numbers and sharing details you need to know and airline stocks boupnced off the lows can you own the stocks and go into a recession i don't know we'll take a closer look at the players and a mission to help millions with genetic diseases and learning more about the pipeline with the ceo so stay with cramer. >> announcer: don't miss a second of "mad money." follow @jimcramer on twitter have a question?n email to madmoney@cnbc.com or give us a
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call at 1-800-743-cnbc adss something he to "mad money" dot cnbc.com
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♪ ♪
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no more waiting. no more running. [ screaming ] we finish this tonight.
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as netflix finally got the grove book i was eagerly anticipating the quarter because the stock had been making kind of spending most of the year lost in the wilderness and this time they sure didn't disappointment when we pull the data for the best performers, i was shocked to see netflix was the number two name in the nasdaq 100 with the 34% gain during the period of course, for the rebound the stock plunged from $700 to $160t turned against it all things growth they had experience what i
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regard as a dramatic slowdown. i like them. a few months ago, netflix started rebounding from the lows and accelerated when we started hearing talk of a new cheaper ad supported subscrti i'm he sitant to get behind thoe stocks because that hype sets you up for failure they offered numbers that sent the stock up 13% space just not u sake tonight i got to walk you through this this is important. i want to show you how netflix pulled this off being written off and left for dea was left for roathis management team, creativity and products before you wet into come back, this stock got hit by the top of the show, the rotation out of high growth stocks after the fed
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declared war on flate stock sol earnings and a richly valued name totally toxic this year and didn't help netflix was perceived as a covid winner, something to do when you're cooped up at home and those any things went out of style in january, netflix gave us a truly horrific subscriber forecast talking about adding 2.5 million subs in the next quarter when wall street was looking for 5.8 million. that's disappointing the rest of the guidance was awful, too that's the kiss of death and only got worse when netflix reported a truly ugly quarter in april. forget 2.5 million subscribers, they lost 200,000 and management guided for another quarter of losing this time predicting 2 million subscriber losses and analysts thought it would be up 2.5 million. that's the biggest decemisparit modern times maybe the narrative had fallen apart. manage moneyers gave up on
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anything connected to streaming. we figured there was too much competition or the programming wasn't as good as it used to be or maybe netflix reached saturation, not enough people to bring into the platform, maybe there wasn't enough time in people's lives well, we got the next set of numbers in july. they managed to beat their conservative forecast as they lost nearly a million subscribers but more important, netflix painted a much brighter picture talking about a return to subscriber growth as it was lighter than anticipated it was enough to get the stock bouncing again because the company's culpability was called into question. fast forward to last night, it looks like netflix incidentally under promised and under delivered because they don't play that game because these numbers were fantastic and i think they came as a surprise perhaps even to management itself i bet you if i got to interview them rather than analysts who do a good job, we could really get to the bottom of one of the most exciting business turnaround stories i've seen in a long time most important, they had 2.4
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million paid new subscribers when wall street was really only looking for a little over 1 million. that translate into a nice top line beat with nearly 6% sales growth year over year and a monster 96 cent earnings beat off a $2.14 basis. who the heck thought they had this leverage? netflix generated $472 million in free cash flow and looking for 78 million that's the huge disparity i live for. the company saw average revenue per membermembe that would be an 8% gain remember, big overseas business so the strong dollar like so many companies that we address on the show really hurts them. currency aside, netflix is doing great in the rest of the world they had 19% revenue growth in asian pacific. 13% in europe. the middle east and africa and 19% in latin america while the numbers were good all over, their paid memberships were up 23% in asia pacific and that's very, very strong
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one of my favorite pieces of data you go through the shareholder letter which is excellent, there is a lot to like and mentioned big hits in the third quarter like their "jeffrey dohmer" series they have higher engagement than anybody else in the business and stand heads and shoulder above the competition competing for your time. netflix 7.6% of total tv time in the united states. which was 2.6 times the amount of amazon or better. at least among the streamers more important, management notes that while their competitors are all spending heavily to promote subscriber growth, they're likely all losing money. netflix should have an operating profit of 5 to 6 billion this pe burning money to become more competitive but that's unsustainable in the current environment. here is the kicker after a challenging first half, we believe we're on a path to
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reaccelete like? netflix guided for 4.5 million paid subscriber editions in the fourth quarter half a million higher than analysts want or looking for but every other line came in lower than expected, which initially got me worried but both because of the insanely strong dollar, which explains a lot and because they shifted some extensions for the third quarter, all explained away the company told a good story about the ad support, which will launch next month in 12 countries and probably too small to move the needle any time soon for five minutes of advertising per hour of programming, you can ges much less commercial time than many were worried about. they're also taking a new approach to crack down o make i to shift your borrowed netflix profile to a new account or pay extra for adding a new member to an existing account. what struck me, what really, really got me thinking this is for real is that management
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wants investors to focus less on subscribers and more on traditional met trics like sale and earnings that's smart in a market speaking of cash, netflix talked about substantial growth from free cash flow next year which is what co-ceo reed hastings and newman struck a much more humble tone in their analyst interview which they do instead of a traditional conference call while at the same time, outlini an to be are astonishing in breathe and geographic diversity does it make sense to circle back to netflix if you haven't already? there is a reason the stock soared 13% today with three different firms. the business is clearly making a comeback and for the first time since a debacle, they have a slate of incredible shows. the stock isn't too expensive relative to the new found growth
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rate trading at 27 times earnings since netflix is beating the eaststimates consistently when subscriber numbers are ugly i'm betting 2023 will look better than 2022 the bottom line, as much as i like netflix, i got to tell you you can't chase it why? this remains a very difficult market as i said at the top of the show but put it at the top of the shopping list and wait for the next pull back and average of course because you won't get a big one in this one and pull the trigger kno knowing how bearish this market is, i think you'll get your chance "mad money" is back after the break. >> announcer: coming up, a business panel at 30,000 feet? how delta's quarter round up a united adversary, next
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strength beating down airline stocks after a brief period it looked like these stocks would make you a fortune, the airline stocks stalled out making a series of lower highs and lower lows for the next five months didn't seem to matter that the airlines kept reporting great numbers. nobody wanted to touch these stocks into a fed mandated slowdown but now earnings' season rolled around and you know what? the airlines themselves are changing the narrative last thursday delta air reported a top and bottom line miss although there was so much good stuff buried, the stock wasn't able to rally since the quarter. last night delta sent the stock up 5% today alone. got to ask group changes stripes? is going on? i'm not surprised the airline is doing well could it mean the stocks are safe to own or another temporary reprieve and worries about the
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recession. before that question, you need to know why the airlines stalled this spring? wall street was excited. that wasn't enough we started hearing about severe operational issues, crumbling air infrastructure and cost the airlines millions in lost revenue. then as the federal reserve started tightening for aggressively to stamp out inflation. money managers figured there was no way to hold up travel while current numbers are strong, airlines will face a reckoning. one less consideration wall street is reluctant to put its faith in the stocks. they're happy to trade the a airlines but much more investing. we definitely don't have the try to keep prices low that's why the stocks have struggled to gain traction
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lately but then delta air reported surprisingly strong quarter last thursday while the headline numbers were okay how ill was doing during the month was encouraging. the third quarter got off to a rocky start due to the operational issue i mentioned but saw a meaningful pickup in september and manage the gave y -- management gave you higher than expected as networks get closer and closer to be fully up and running again. more important, extremely positive commentary about the level of demand for air travel they're at the strongest level since the start of the pandemic. listen to this from the ceo. i quote, the travel recovery continues as consumers shift to experiences and demand improves in corporate international and he goes on quote, in this environment, we expect december quarter revenue growth to accelerate versus 2019 on top of that, he talks about a
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meaningful step up in profitability and cash flow. which is exactly what wall street wants to hear when he went on "squawk box," the rebound in business and international travel is huge because those tickets are where the airlines make the big money. people are much more likely to go first class when they can charge it to their employer. put it together and it's no wonder delta stock roared in response last night, shocking fantastic results. a clean surprise higher than expected sales up 13% from 2019 and a 53 cent earnings beat off 228 basis. these guys are printing money. the airline industry likes to tracktotal revenue per available seat mile. basically revenue per unit that key met tric was up 25.5% at the same time, the cost per
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available seat mile was up 14.5% versus 2019. they're back to more than 90 percent capacity putting them a little ahead of delta. guidance, stunning united sees strong demand holding up in the current quarter but think they can get the cost under control to the point they're forecasting two to 225 of earnings per share. analysts were looking for less than a buck. there is so much to like united has the most exposure to flights and right now americans are flying to europe in droves because the dollar is so strong. if you want to understand why united can rally 5% today. you need to listen to what the ceo scott kirby said to cnbc phil lebeau on "squawk box" this morning. listen to this. >> hybrid work allows every weekend to be a holiday weekend. what we see in our data is there are tons of customers untethered from the office can work remotely one to two days and
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taking extra trips. >> lesthe's talking about hybri work i don't know if i can fully buy the argument but the fact he has so much conviction, tells you business must be going great tomorrow morning we'll hear from american airlines. that should be less than surprising all three major airlines are doing better than expected the strong travel market is very much with us and these companies sound pretty darn optimistic about the fau uture. i got to say, i'm becoming a believer are delta and united worth buying both stocks are trading at roughly seven times. i like them cheap. a classic sign wall street doesn't trust numbers however scott kirby is right about a new normal for air travel, the estimates may prove to be too low. union behavior changed post covid. travel including travel overseas to take advantage of the strong dollar may make up for more recession resistant -- more recession resistant group. i can't believe i said it.
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i mean it. bottom line, you got to be careful when you own the airlines meaning take profits gradually along the way and jump out of the plane if the industry face faces turbulence for now, the strength can continue so you have my blessing to buy both but united is clearly performing better. i want to go to neal in new york, neal. >> caller: hi, how are you, jim? i want to know fedex 40% year to date hold it or sell it >> fedex is very, very tough at this point it is down too low to sell. i'm going to tell you to hold it let's go to -- well. that's it. and that -- oh, hold it. i think the strength here can continue which means you got my blessing to buy both united and delta over united is a strong one. much more "mad money" ahead including my discussion with bio marin. i'm running through the list with the company's ceo and 35th anniversary of black monday and i'm giving you the take aways
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everyone is terrified of recession. you typically want to hide your money in health care stocks that are slow down proof as it gets we're worried the government will bully big pharma to negotiate aggressively for lower drug prices. avoid that too what about a long term favorite. it is treatments for rare
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diseases this immunizes them -- the rules that governments are trying to do to keep prices down these are small end markets and there aren't any alternatives. this is all they have. now, there is a reason this stock held up better, basically flat for the year and the story can get only better now that the drugs have been approve in europe and submitted to the fda for approval here in the united states don't take it from me. let's check in with the chairman and ceo to get a better sense where his company is headed. welcome back to "mad money." >> thank you, jim, always a pleasure to be here. >> before we go in to some of the incredibly exciting news, i think, correct me if i'm wrong, orphan drug status and special work you do will make it less likely that big government will say, you know what we're not going to pay for the drugs. >> you're absolutely right these drugs are somewhat immune from this new regulation on
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med medicare it's our business. it will be awhile before any top drugs makes it to the top 20 or 30 of the top medicare drug. >> the last time we spoke you talked about something and i said well if this could happen, it would be amazing which is some of the work you're doing on hemophilia not only amazing but there is great news in europe and soon to be in airmerica you said this is a retractable disease. nobody else could do it. you're right. >> not a straight lane but we did get approval in europe in late august. we hope to be treating our first commercial patient in germany at the end of this month. just the fda did accept our filing in the u.s. last week so we have a chance to be approved at the end of march of next year
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or a little later in q 1 or q 2 of next year that's very exciting this is transformative actually, i've talked to a few hemophilia patients that have taken it and it has absolutely changed their lives. they're not worried about the episodes on a regular basis. they can leave -- live close to a normal life. >> 1.7 euros in germany are 2 million to 3 million in the u.s. the truth is you don't want to make -- call it a bargain because we're talking about people's lives but the fact is that these prices are not nearly as much as what it costs the system to take care of these people and the system doesn't do a good job. >> yeah, so actually, yeah, today existing therapies today are the center of care which is still becoming a factor, injections is an annual basis in the u.s. is around $500,000 per
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year so actually some therapies, newer therapies are more expensive. so our plan is to, you know, price the drug, to recoup our investment at the same time to make sure that the health care system as a whole and the patient would be saving money when they use our drug and also, we can talk about we going to have signing outcome agreements where we guarantee success and if the patient needs to go back to profits through i.p. later on, we will reimburse the cost of the therapy. >> it's important to point out there were common solutions which has been in use for a long time is not nearly as good as your solution. >> no, we had a withdrawal that showed our drug was more effective. we have two years of data in phase three and six years of data with our phase two trial that shows with a one-three hour infusion, three to four hours infusion, patients are free of bleeding for two to three years. >> amazing. >> it's a revolution.
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>> in the meantime, you've got voxago. >> yes. >> which is another drug that looks like it could have very big sells for you. >> yeah, so it was just approved about a year ago in europe and u.s. it's off to a very good start. it's the best launch ever. we going to -- we guide it to revenues this year around 150 million, 40, $50 million this is the best launch ever i think i'm confident based on what is happening that this will be the first drug that will pass $1 billion in revenue. same with the one we just talked about. we're a business of about $2 billion now profitable and big cash advances and we are in a position with those two drugs to double the revenues of the company by 2025 to around $4 billion. >> and one other i want to mention and i want people to go to the website is this drug
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changes people's lives, whose lives are frankly, i think, just so sad without it. >> yes that is our most successful drug and indeed, we tranls sform the lives of the patients. so we launched the product a few years ago and so our base business is therapies is still growing after many, many years about low and it's protected from competition for many, many years. so yeah, you have a lot of downside protection with the base business and a potential significant upside with other drugs in hemophiliya. >> you got something for ca
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cardiomyophy things go fast when you get them right. >> we're filing a 90 to start the trials in about a year or so from now so we hopefully if everything goes well, we'll be in the clinic in the first half of 2024 this will be the biggest indication for which the chief therapy will be attempted. we're talking hundreds of thousands of patients with the huge unmet need and personally, unfortunately, some experiences in your family so we are super excited about this still early but prelegal data and human inventory data is very exciting. >> well, many people promise in drugs and i tend not to let them go on but your record on this show of what you can deliver is extraordinary. congratulations on what you're doing with hemophilia and i wish you the best of luck with your other drugs. please go to this website.
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you'll understand why these people -- there should be no restrictions on how much money should be spent on these drugs "mad money" is backafter this. >> announcer: coming up, cramer takes your calls and the sky is the limit. it's a fast fire lightning round. next our clients come to us with complicated situations that occur in their lives. for them it's the biggest milestone, the biggest accomplishment, the sale of a business, or an important event for their family. for them, it's the first and only time. we have seen this literally thousands of times, in thousands of iterations. ♪ ♪ i am vince lumia, head of field management at morgan stanley. whether that's retirement, paying for their children's college education,
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or their son or daughter getting married, our financial advisors need to make sure that they are making objective decisions, every step along the way. every time you hit a milestone, an anniversary, a life event, the emotions will run high. making sure that you have somebody, a team of individuals that have seen it before, have seen every circumstance and seen every challenge, and have your back when you need it most, is one of the most valuable things a financial advisor could provide to a family. i am vince lumia and we are morgan stanley. ♪ in any business, you ride the line between numbers and people. what's right for the business and what's best for everyone who depends on it. solving today's challenges while creating future opportunities. it takes balance. cla - cpas, consultants, and wealth advisors.
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palantir. data driven enterprise accelerator. >> announcer: lightenning roundi sponsored by tdtd america trade it is time to start the lightening round, buy, buy, buy,
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play the sound and the lightening round is over are you ready, ski daddy i'll start with mark in wisconsin, mark? >> caller: jim, i got a stock here that's out of favor, trading for forth of $3 a share. i've already bought some did i make a mistake or should i buy more ticker symbol is rig name of the company is transocean. >> transocean. i know transocean very well. i think -- remember, it is a high risk stock. i prefer to have something certainly a little bit more, let's say, known and already being -- doing incredibly well, which is halliburton, hal. it's doing terrifically. let's go to dan in california, dan? >> caller: greetings from sonoma county. >> yeah, love so knoma. >> caller: china reopening
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consumer discretionary how about this tpr tapestry? >> it's interesting to me. it's good and i would like them to come on the show. good idea. let's go to robert in pennsylvania, robert >> caller: hey, jim. >> yes, sir? >> caller: how are you >> i am doing well how about you? >> caller: good. i want your opinion on carnival cruise lines. >> i don't like carnival i prefer norwegian cruise better balance sheet and i think it's going to do better even if the economy goes in a real tail spin let's go to dave in ohio, dave >> caller: mr. cramer. how are we doing tonight >> dave, doing well. how about you? >> caller: all right, man, i'm hanging in there i got my raincoat ready for the storm. speaking of, looking for high yields, low volatility names do you like kimberly clark --
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>> i like kimberly clark one point dividend in yield, i'd much rather have you be in proctor and gamble if you read online, you'll see chris in texas, chris? >> caller: boo-yah, jim, from dallas, go easy on me. >> no problem. the eagles roughed you up, not me. >> caller: rub it in hey, i would love to hear your thoughts, thank you, on boeing as a long-term position. >> all right as a long term position, that is really the operative term because short term they keep doing things wrong longer term only two airplane companies and they will do fine. let go to dennis in new york, dennis >> c dennis >> caller: i have a question
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regarding a consumer bank that's been doing well, mr. buffet holds a portion of this bank but starting since the beginning of the year -- [ inaudible >> kind of breaking up i'm so afraid. is there a stock i can't -- give me the name of the stock. ouch okay we got to go to the next one i'm sorry, jeff. oh, no, jeff in washington is who i want to go to. jeff >> caller: jim, i got a nickname for you, mr. nasdaq. >> mr. nasdaq. hey, i'm kind of at the new york stock exchange what's going on? >> caller: hey, port energy seems to be screaming upward faster than -- >> i like it it's inexpensive you know my favorite is pioneer, pxd. some clown downgraded today to a sell they should be ashamed
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i need to go to steve in virginia, steve? >> caller: hey, jim. how are you doing? i just want to let you know i'm a member of the investing club and i appreciate what you do for us. >> thank you, we're doing our best trying every day go ahead, i'm sorry. >> caller: i've been looking at a company i haven't bought any shares in but i'm thinking about it so much speculative it an electric vehicle battery company ticker symbol qs. >> it losing a lot of money. losing a lot of money. we don't recommend stocks losing a lot of money on "mad money" and that's the best we can do. that's the conclusion of the lightning round. >> the lightning round is sponsored by t.d. ameritrade. staick with cramer.
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exactly 35 years ago today, we got hit with the mother of all crashes. black monday earlier in 1987 we had one of the greatest rallies we can recall, s&p surging 32% from january to september we ran up every week pure joy for me as a young hedge fund manage, i can't believe how intoxicating it was. it had a surreal quality to it whether talking individuals or institutions driven by japan at that time the market dominated the world and the economy was the big dog back then we were the second fiddle. the japanese were the marginal buyers of everything around the
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world, our stocks. we were along for the ride they typically did buying in the first hour and stocks tended to stay up where the japanese took them by 10:30 a.m. all we wanted to do was lock in the games. there were institutions that sold portfolio insurance, which they claim would allow you to stop at the losses down 5% or actually any level you chose something you needed because the s&p was valued at 29 times earnings back then to put that in perspective, it's valued at less than 17 times earnings of course, that 1987 bull market was too good to be true. stocks didn't deserve to be that high and no portfolio insurance could stop the losses down 5% because these policies used s&p futures. once the portfolio insurance kicked in, the massive wave of future selling needed to protect the insurer portfolios was enough to protect the stock market like gasoline on a fire the week before black monday was one of the worst weeks ever. they were doing their best to keep up but it broke down and we got a crash losing 22.6% single
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session. next thing you know, the market is looking cheaper, bargains below. we assumed the crash had to be predicting something horrible about the economy. that was wrong predicting nothing the market got too expensive once the japanese stopped buying and overwhelmed the stock thanks to the portfolio insurance that insurance failed and many of the firms lost everything you can google the crash of '87 until the cows come home you'll never see the analysis i gave you why? not that many people traded at that time and most weren't talking to the media i know because i studied this period endlessly and i couldn't believe how wrong journalists were i started the next day with the dow getting clobbered on a two-day basis leading the fed to announce it will provide all the liquidity we needed to make the market work right hence turn around tuesday not discussed as often as black monday,studied ts period
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i wanted ammo for buybacks so they could take advantage of opportunities like black monday and expose the non-sense, the bogus stories why we crashed and the facts and the trajectory had nothing to do with the economy the asset class simply failed that day since then, we've instituted what are known as circuit breakers that would stop trading if we hit certain levels on the way down they don't -- they tend to work but i don't really trust them because markets are still guided by fear and greed. greed grows over time but fear can exert the wrath in minutes when you look back, though, nobody seems to want to air this dirty laundry. they prefer to blame black monday on the dollar or interest rates with a ton of business for those of us who lived through it, that's garbage analysis the market failed to function. people lost billions and that was all she wrote. could it happen again? the authorities say no but then again it pretty much told you the same thing back then too remember that -- remember what happened that day and never get too complacent people that got blown out in
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1987 were never complacent again but then again, they didn't have any money left so maybe it didn't matter. i like to say there is always a bull market somewhere and i promise alalinintoto fd it a blockbuster report on what washington insiders were doing with their money, when most of us were just learning about the novel coronavirus. i'm shepard smith. this is "the news" on cnbc the markets initially plunged, then others as they rallied. one of "the wall street journal"'s reporters who broke the story joins us live. with inflation soaring, tax brackets are changing. >> you may see some extra dollars in your paycheck >> tom costello with details on who benefits and when. first, putin invaded, then

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