it comes to free cash flow which i just mentioned, some are questioning the conversion of free cash flow from the revenue number only $752 million in free cash flow they have to do $6 billion in the fourth quarter to reach the $10 billion free cash flow number ibm has for the full year that's going to do it for us on "squawk on the street. "tech check" starts now. >> happy thursday. welcome to "tech check." i'm jon fortt with deirdre bosa and carl quintanilla today, nasdaq in the green as investors work through reports on two very different companies. tesla and ibm. tesla falling pretty big, down 4%, as sales fall short. the company cuts the full year delivery target. ceo elon musk sounding positive as ever on the long term, saying the company one day could be worth more than apple and saudi aramco combined. yeah but on the flip side, ibm is up

4% solid revenue growth as software grew faster than the business overall. the real standout, ibm's z-16 mainframe, where revenues jumped 88%. yes, mainframes are still profitable, still selling. the stock has been an outperformer this year, benefitting from both the predictability of its stable core customer base and a slowing economy and that lucrative but rare mainframe product cycle carl, what's really the issue that investors need to watch, though, is software. there are a lot more software creation and delivery focus, and that red hat deal, $33 billion, one of the biggest software deals ever, is working for them. the question is, how does all of it kind of hold up in a slowing global economy arven krishna took on some of the questions in the call saying yeah, europe looks a bit shaky, but for a b to b company, he

feels pretty good. >> a long discussion this morning with cramer about whether or not growth is truly returning, the strength in revenue. software up 14, currency neutral, but when margins miss and a lot of that does not flow to cash flow, not to mention the bottom line, that debate can be pretty intense >> that's what faber was mentioning they have to come up with a lot of cash to meet that target. but you know, i have to say, jon, i'm an avid watcher of on the other hand, and i can't help but think, mainframes a bit of a snooze that's the story, but that's boring what happened to hybrid cloud. i know they're making inroads, but mainframe growth, 88%, that was the story here as you said this morning, that's not going to take ibm to $100 billion market cap the focus needs to be much more on safety ware, hybrid cloud, and you know, i think investors still need to see a lot more how long have we been talking about ibm in the $120s, what, a

decade this is a company that does well, yes, in this kind of verem environment, yes, legacy tech, but is an exciting company i don't know >> if you can't get excited about mainframes here with the z-16, i don't think you can get excited about mainframes >> you're probably right >> look what's happening with airline travel right now, so much of that is running through mainframes the financial system, so much of that still runs through mainframes so in times like these where you talk about the blocking and tackling, how people like profits, investors like profits. maybe investors should like mainframes too i don't know let's see if lisa likes mainframes take a closer look at ibm's quarter. bring in moffettnathanson partner lisa ellis is there enough here, it's been about three years since the red hat buy. arven krishna was an architect

of that, now he's the ceo of ibm. he's made promises around cash flow, around profitability is it playing out? are we at the point where we're seeing a significant and consistent turnaround at ibm >> i would say consistent. got to give arven a lot of credit here. maybe not significant, but moving in the right direction. he's been laser focused on two goals. one is mid-single digit revenue growth the other one is $35 billion in free cash flow over the next three years. and he's been pretty systematically moving and shifting the business in that direction. spinning off kyndryl, also taken a lot of steps to open up the remaining services business so they can work more closely with ibm competitors like aws or azure, driving growth in that business taking a lot of positive steps we're starting to see that in revenue growth as the last few quarters have shown, but it's

not yet flowing through to the bottom line. they keep missing on margins and the free cash flow number is weak as it has been highlighted. >> two things one of which you mentioned, the first thing i want to talk about, hope you talk about, is the utilization of the consulting workforce. they seem to be a little lower than some competitors in the utilization there, and right now, when the tech workforce is in high demand, it sort of makes sense. he was making the case to me earlier this year, people are going to come to them for the tech workers through their consulting business because you can't find tech workers anywhere else are they going to be able to get that utilization higher so that that high cost of labor flows through into higher prices, higher revenue, and then maybe also tackle that question about the software and whether they are going to be able to get the benefit from people migrating to aws, to salesforce, to service

now even, through those consulting engagements >> yeah. so the services business is definitely the standout over the last year. he's growing in the mid-teens by comparison as you guys know, accenture's business has been unbelievable in the mid-20s, but ibm is not too far behind. a testament to the turnaround they have been doing there, but as you highlighted, they had to invest in labor, some acquisitions in pricing to get that growth going. and as a result, their margins are pressured. their running margin is under 10% right now by comparison, peer companies run margins in the mid-teens, so 400 or 500 basis points higher. we haven't seen ibm yet be able to get their way out of it they're very aware of it, working on it, but to get the engine going, they have to get the revenue going first boss they need people, those consultants doing exciting projects that they like and

enjoy, and then they're more likely to stay, and the whole cycle gets going in the business it takes time, but it's moving in the right direction >> lisa, is that enough, that virtuous cycle, to get ibm to break out in the longer term we talked about how the stock has just really been sort of, you know, the same over the last ten years. do you see it as a leader in next generation technology like hybrid cloud and a.i.? >> tbd, let's be honest. the problem is, you're right, the services business, good place to start that gets them kind of in the flow but the software business is really what generates the majority of the profits of ibm and as that's why you see the stock is very sensitive to the performance of that segment. and there, they're taking steps to sort of reinigivate that portfolio, but we're not yet seeing, outside of the mainframe

linked software which posted high single digit or mid-teens groat this quarter, the rest of the software products outside of red hat are still growing in the 3%, 4% range and that's really for them to be successful over time, they have got to get that portfolio growing at a more healthy rate and get some more of that synergy with red hat otherwise, you're bleeding off very high profit revenues and trying to outrun that with some lower margin revenues on the services side. >> are you excited about mainframes at least during the z-16 cycle, are you? >> i'm kind of a tech geek, and i absolutely love the mainframe. >> good, all right now is the time to be excited about mainframes lisa, thank you. >> sorry, guys you're outgeeking me >> guys, thanks. let's dive further into tesla

this morning this is elon musk on last night's call talking about the possibility of a recession >> i wouldn't say it's recession proof, but it's certainly recession resilient. because basically, the people have the decision to move away from gasoline cars to electric cars >> let's bring in colin rush he has an outperform on the name did you bring in any targets last night >> no, we actually raised our target this morning. we went from $432 to $436. a couple things we're looking at one, there's an awful lot of operating leverage left to be had in this model coming from efficiency in the r&d spend. as they scale up revenue here, we're expecting them to get leverage off the operating side. more importantly, it's on the cost side for a manufacturing perspective. they're underutilized in austin and berlin and they're just

beginning to see the impact of the 4680 battery start to flow through, and we're expecting significant upside on the gross margins on the order of potentially 4% to 7% of incremental gross margin as we go through the next couple years. >> that's interesting. what about demand? how do you answer concerns about either softening demand in aggregate or at least more difficult share environment as new competitors come onboard >> that's the heart of the matter here with the stock right now. we're seeing pretty good products coming out of mercedes and bmw here we have seen bmw and hyundai be leaders in terms of the ev space and try to work in the lower cost models. what we're seeing from tesla is ongoing evolution of the manufacturing platform and really driving cost down in a couple levels, one with the stamping program, second with the structural battery pack. and then the evolution of just the efficiency of the power train. one thing we're really intrigued by is their insistence on sticking with the 400-volt

architecture as a lot of people go to 800 volts to get better range and try to simplify some of the design. we think tesla is going after the low-cost, high-volume components to help them drive cost down. as we look at some of the other products coming to market, we think the actual hardware of the vehicle actually for tesla is going to have a lower cost structure structurally, and beyond that, they're rolling out the wide release of the fst beta here in the fourth quarter in north america, we think that's going to support margins as we get into next year and also i think going to drive demand. just the last point is, you know, when you talk about this, we're talking about relatively strong demand environment already. they're sitting only at eight days of inventory at the end of the quarter, so it's really not -- we're not seeing a demand problem. we're seeing a relative move but a small one on an absolute basis. >> especially compared to some of the other automakers. what you're speaking to is this larger picture

maybe some volatility quarter to quarter, but has the larger picture changed? this is a company, an ev maker that offers the best value and has optionality around a number of different other businesses like storage and solar he also talked a lot about robotics last night. but i do wonder, you haven't mentioned the chinese automakers what do you think about what byd and neo are doing could that be competition not just in china but abroad typically, chinese automakers haven't had success abroad, but could that change? >> absolutely. we saw it with the japanese automakers historically as well as korean automakers and certainly, that's going to be a dynamic what is different from the story around japan and korea is the geopolitical implications of buying chinese cars in other markets and i think certainly there's going to be a cost dynamic, but also there's going to be a level of protecting industry and economy, as consumers look at some of these things and i think tesla going into

china, you know, and really competing on a cost basis there is important for them from a supply chain perspective but also in terms of just best practices as they bring some of the best practices out into other geographies in their f factories and that learning is important as they look at some of these other markets >> not only do you have an outperform on the stock, your price target has it more than doubling from here to $436 at what point do you say for this economy, for these comps, if there are any comps for tesla, this is expensive, why should it be $436 a share? >> it's really around the growth and the durability of the earnings power here. we're talking about a company that's already got leading operating margins within the industry and has a number of levers to move substantially higher and that's really driving the growth of the platform and they're really pioneering this

technology into a number of other end markets. one thing we don't have in our model at this point is the semitruck, the potential incremental $12 to $15 billion of revenue in the model for 2024 based on the numbers last night. and it's something that's been latent so we're not giving them credit for it, but there's a number of pieces that can support our earnings projections. so as we look at the trade-offs on execution, some of the technology elements that have margin expansion, we really look at these guys and say they have the highest margin in the industry they have substantial leverage, and they're being more efishabout with their resources than anybody else, and we think it's a little early and there's negative sentiment right now around some of the competitive environment, but we have gone through a couple cycles already with this cycle and seen them pull through in a substantial way and that's what we're talking about today. >> that's a good way to look at at least last night's print and

the environment we find ourselves in colin, thanks so much. great to see you again >> thanks for having me. we have had results from netflix, tesla, ibm. there's still more to come tonight ahead of new numbers from snap in a few hours, we're break down the internet outlook. we're just getting started this is doubling production without doubling headcount. this is connecting all your team with a shared point of view. this is the system you built moving from concept to customer. this is how. airtable. - yieldstreet presents: alternative investing with kal penn and older kal penn.

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. let's get a gut check on d datadog. the stock is down, but now is the time to get bullish. ups to buy after an investor meeting earlier this week. firm highlights the deepening product mote and continued platform innovation. now more than yakt% of analysts have a buy on datadog. the talk is up more than 8% today. they go to $110. rosenblatt reiterates a buy, and they go to $120. >> yeah, and even though it's up 8%, it's still near some pretty low levels meanwhile, investors keep an eye also on online advertising going to get an update tonight when snapchat reports results. julia boorstin is here

julia, what's to watch out for in this report >> well, jon, the big question is whether snap will snap back to accelerating growth after last quarter, they warned the advertising outlook was so murky they couldn't give guidance and they wanted to cut cost and drive growth. analysts expect snap to report 6% revenue growth, down from a 13% growth rate in the second quarter. also anticipating the addition of 11 million daily active users compared to the 15 million the company added last quarter now, while snap is expected to post a loss for the second quarter in a row, take a look at those revenue numbers expected to grow slightly now, after warning about ad headwinds and ongoing ad targeting challenges, today' results will be closely watched as a sign of how other ad-supported players such as meta and pinterest could fare. jefferies raising red flags about the recent xegative losses and cutbacks saying the loss of

key execs to netflix as well as 20% of the global workforce cut could cause additional disruption to the ad business. they note this report could have a glimmer of hope, as snap gives any indication that fundamentals and revenue growth improved in september. bernstein saying the worst may be behind snap as they indicated in late august that while july revenue growth was flat, august actually accelerated into the mid-teens. so snap does tend to give very detailed insight into monthly movement so it's what's happening so far in q4 that could really have a big impact, jon. >> here's a problem. just with adobe, a couple days ago, their holiday forecast across all of e-commerce looks pretty like there's no big spike for the holiday seen coming. it's sort of flattened out that sort of thing wouldn't be good for the social media players, the online marketers, the online ad category, right?

if there's not this surge in consumer demand which we have heard is waning, after the inventory gets cleared out, there might not be much. snap might be hesitant to say things look good from here >> look, the fourth quarter is always the most important. the key holiday season that's when you see marketers get out there and try to sell their products so so much depends on the health of the consumer and then what brands and advertisers are thinking the potential is. the question is do we see some brands try to gain market share by advertising more or other brands hunkering down and trying to spend less. as we talked about, snap is one of these companies where it's really easy to turn on spend on and off, so that can be an advantage or disadvantage depending on the state of the market >> julia, thanks for the breakdown. for more on what to expect from not just snap but meta, joining us live, founder managing partner and cnbc contributor

lowe tony. typically, snap sets the tone for meta and pins. but it can be the case this quarter? it is so beaten down evan spiegel has told investors of all these worries he has and the macro headwinds they're facing is that going to work the same this time around >> we'll see julia had a good point around the ease in which the ad spend can be turned on or off. that could potend for a positive note, depending i think on the health of the consumer, i think looking at where inventory levels are i'm really mixed right now in terms of the signals that we're receiving. but it does feel like everyone is preparing on the retail side for a decline. if that happens, then we'll obviously see a little bit of a decline on advertising spend as well >> certainly, a lot of the challenges that snap is facing is baked in. share are down 76% year to date. when you look at pinterest, shares are down only 34% this year, which is better than meta, 60% loss year to date.

what do you like in this space >> so again, i always go back to i like the diversity and the stability of businesses like google, so i like alphabet a lot. i'm a little concerned about meta i think it's not clear to me house the billions of dollars that they're spending towards going after the metaverse is going to play out. and when i talk to some of our portfolio companies that are on the consumer side, they're still struggling to try and regain after the privacy changes instituted by apple. so i think it's not clear to me how meta is going to perform but i think we'll get a good indication in this q4. this is an important period of time not only for the earnings of retailers but also for the online advertisers >> lo, i wonder if you think there's a positive flywheel if we start to get real attempted at cost management meta is a great example where they're clearly looking to get more efficient, maybe reduce head count, which maybe over

time lowers inflation and takes the burden off the entire market regarding rates. do you think those things can work in tandem >> yeah, i would even say, so to answer your question, yes. i do think that all of these companies are looking at how they can adjust their knobs to be able to continue the bottom line while seeing some pressure on the top line. now, depending on the type of business, if it's driven by the consumer side, again, the consumer has held up fairly well you know, we have seen the ability for the job market to -- we're seeing signs of potential softening, but for the most part, the job market is still healthy, indicating the health of the consumer. you know, it's just not clear to me right now where things are actually going to head i think that's the problem that a lot of people have hopefully we'll see some clarity this earnings season >> lo, once you factor in what's

happening in d to c, you were mentioning it, the ios changes, the whole targeting model has been screwed up, the cost of customer accusation. isn't the safer play in this q4 to go with google or amazon where you know there's intent, if people are searching for socks on google, they're looking to buy socks if they're looking for socks on amazon, they're definitely looking to buy socks if you apply your ad dollars there to get an edge, you know there's a big audience as o opposed to trying to get people in their social feeds. is that what investors should think about when they think about who is going to benefit in online advertising this q4 >> i think those are great points and without question, this is the whole benefit of that type of advertising, is that it's performance based. there's clear attribution. again, there is going to be, i believe, if we wanted to start to slice out some of the consumer segments, and this may indicate where we see a recovery

if we do go into a recession i do believe we're seeing a tale of two cities. if we go into a recession, i don't think we're going to see the start vee coming out i think we'll see a bit of a k to answer your question, yeah, i believe when we think about those individuals that are fortunate enough to not be impacted severely by a recession, i think we'll continue to see growth there that could bode well for amazon when we think about the type of customer that they have. the interesting thing, think about apple, think about tesla elon's comments about the potential for tesla to be bigger than both apple and saudi aramco, that is a really bold statement, but if we really start to think about the consumer and how they're going to be impacted, obviously, the higher level consumer looks to be very resilient. when we start to look at some of the luxury goods numbers, those numbers continue to seem resilient to any indication of

weakness within that top end segment of the market. >> you have the top end segment of the market, you also have the intent to buy, which is stronger on platforms like amazon and google what do you make of netflix? they're about to roll out their ad-supported tier. do you think they'll be successful in taking dollars away from the likes of apple and amazon >> i think we'll have to see it's very interesting because it is a different type of advertising model. we'll have to see which type of advertisers gravitate more i don't know if they're going to be able at netflix to pull in the intent piece, but everyone's really excited about seeing increased subscriber growth with netflix, and everyone has been waiting for netflix to put this advertising model into play. so i'm really bullish on their ability to be able to bring in a new type of consumer, but i do think the advertiser is going to be maybe less intent focused, little more brand focused. >> interesting to see.

reed hastings was enthusiastic a few nights ago thanks for being with us >> tech stocks in the green this morning. we'll talk about whether that can continue with sutory fund's dan niles in a moment. for the time being, nasdaq still holding on to its best week since july this... is the planning effect. this is how it feels to have a dedicated fidelity advisor looking at your full financial picture. this is what it's like to have a comprehensive wealth plan with tax-smart investing strategies designed to help you keep more of what you earn. and set aside more for things like healthcare, or whatever comes down the road. this is "the planning effect" from fidelity. at humana we believe your healthcare should evolve with you and part of that evolution means choosing the right medicare plan for you. humana can help. with original

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welcome back to "tech check. here's what's happening at this hour all state has been the biggest loser so far in the s&p with the stock down over 10%. weak earnings report is weighing on the insurance giant the company also projecting losses in part to the impact of insurance claims from hurricane ian in september

the airline industry showing another sign of strength after a positive earnings from american airlines the carrier expects profits will continue in q4, as travel demand remains strong rivals united airlines and delta airlines also predicted in recent days they would be profitable through the end of the year and a new report shows a drop in college enrollment for the third straight year. the rate of decline has slowed some since the pandemic, but enrollment still dropped over 1% from last year the national student clearing-house report says 1.5 million fewer students are enrolled than before the pandemic bucking the trend, online schooling and hbcu enrollment. they managed to tick up from last year. back over to you guys. >> happens to be significantly cheaper when you do it online. thank you. >> meanwhile, investors are gearing up for mega cap earnings next week. and a couple notes from the street on the cloud hyperscalers

this morning goldman sachs holding on to the buy ratings. they expect cloud revenue to be resilient in the context of growing pessimism around tech overall. ubs focused on microsoft, noting azure's practices have been holding up better than aws and google cloud thanks in part to less exposure to start-ups that's a point below the company's guidance and a four-point deceleration from last quarter if we do see that sort of slight deceleration, the story is probably still intact, but something we have been wondering for a few quarters now is does that eventually slow down more than the street is expecting, and these are the stocks, amazon, microsoft, google, that play such a big part of the broader markets if they see sort of a significant leg down, that's going to affect the whole market >> one of my biggest questions when it comes to cloud, hyperscalers, particularly on the infrastructure side, carl,

is when you have a q4, particularly in retail, that's smoothed out, you have got retailers starting these sales before halloween you have got prime day first couple weeks in october. when that smooths out, does that mean you have fewer peaks and you have less of that higher margin cloud infrastructure utilization and then what does that mean about q1 and expectations in the guidance for growth i don't know certainly people need cloud. but how much peak cloud do they need as things slow down >> all right like a utility grid. what is peak usage meanwhile, the information with yet another story suggesting that the logic behind an eventual microsoft netflix tie-up continues to gather steam. of course, morgan stanley notes it and says it's based on speculation, but that's still in the ether. >> oh, boy

kind of like an apple/tesla tie-up even though i guess netflix at this point would be cheaper. >> like legend by this time. really entrenched. >> let's continue the market conversation with somebody who has been bearish on microsoft, on everything. including microsoft. a stock that the broader tech sector is represented in somewhat dan niles, from satori fund, joins us now dan, want to get to tech specifically but i want to start with europe, especially given the liz truss news this morning. is that in a way positive for the market because there's a sign that, you know, change is coming, or is it additional volatility that affects all sorts of companies including an ibm, which called out europe as an area of concern, certainly for q4 and perhaps into next year >> well, i think you're right,

jon. when you guys had me on last time, it was a day of that horrible cpi print what we said at the time when the market was down in the morning and getting beat up, we think the month of october will finish up and the odds speak to the fact that it should be up about 3% or so which is better than normal. because there's a laundry list of things that are bad, including what was going on in the uk and so any of those things break in the positive direction, uk, russia, china's zero covid policy, liability driven investment firms what happened with credit suisse, any of that breaks positive, that's good for the markets. to your point, you're seeing the pound strengthen this morning. you're seeing yields down a touch as well. so the market is clearly taking this as a good sign that there's going to be a little more fiscal responsibility coming out of the uk and so our belief is that the

market continues to have this bear market rally that we have been calling for it continues at least until we see these mega caps report next week because a lot of them, i mean, they're down a lot don't get me wrong, but they're down less than some of the other names that are down 75%, 80% in the tech space so if you have an issue with one of them, because there's a lot of optimism going into all of those reports for the most part, if you see something that is more tesla like than netflix like, you could have a big issue. >> yet, dan, i mean, when at&t is up 9% on earnings, ibm up 4%, not because things are not as bad as -- actually, a beat and a raise from ibm on some stability, how is that not fundamentally good news and not just, you know, bear feed? >> well, yeah. that's definitely good news, but

remember, that's somewhat company specific in that ibm is in the first full year of their new mainframe cycle. ibm typically tends to do well you look at ibm over the next decade, the revenue has done nothing but shrank you have to put that in context. nobody, no tech person says oh, i just got to own ibm over the last decade. that's microsoft, apple, google, the real a loved names, tesla. so you have a much different setup for expectations in that versus something else. we own oracle somewhat for the same reason. we bought it back, i should say, this past week, because our view is okay, that's definitely not a name that's been loved got a very low multiple, but they do seem to be actually gaining some momentum in terms of cloud infrastructure market share. so i think you have to put this in context of if you're somebody who has very high expectations, you're at much greater risk of having your stock clobbered off

earnings versus somebody like a netflix where the stock was down 60% year to date they put up their numbers and the stock rightfully was up a fair bit so i think you kind of need to separate that out right now, and don't get me wrong we have much more longs than we have shorts. again, because we wr expecting a rally in october, but i think you have to get very specific within that on where you want to take that risk i would rather take risk in names that there's not a lot of high expectations going into this versus ones like an apple or a microsoft where the pe is much greater than the market a lot of optimism going in and a lot of reasons you could see them coming in and saying, well, you know, cloud infrastructure is slowing down a bit because amazon sales over the second prime day weren't that strong. or, you know, there's a big pandemic beneficiary in terms of smartphone sales and that used to be at the low end to midrange, and now we're seeing

the consumer slowdown at the high end which to some degree you saw in tesla's average revenue per car they sold. that's why we're being careful into mega cap earnings next week, even though we have more longs than we have shorts, and we think the market is going to rally in october >> that's interesting. we're getting some maybe little more dovish fed speak at the margin nonfarm pay roll estimates are 150, maybe you have gunlock saying we're in a peak yield environment are you in a move to say maybe the pivot we have talked about for so long is not that far away >> well, i mean, here's the good ning about the way i try to run the fund i'm not claiming to be smarter than the markets but i do know that you get these bear market rallies, so carl, to your point, if you think about mid-june, june 15th or so, to mid-august, august 15th, the s&p was up 17% and i'm sure you remember all the technicians you had on that were like, well, the market has

never gone to new lows after it's retraced 50%, and all these other stats you can trot out, and then the market went to new lows the reason is the fundamentals keep getting worse for me, i'm going to get long right now because i think based on all the statistics we have on markets and we tweeted about this you can go back and look so this is not me saying this after the fact we thought there would be a bear market rally, but maybe this is the real thing i don't think it is because historically you need the fed to stop raising rates for the market to find the bottom versus a bottom, but in the near term, i don't care i'm long either way. >> i mean, yeah, you have been coming on and telling us yourself, dan, over the last few months, over the last year when you say that you're getting cautious into the big cap tech earnings next week, how much do you read into something like jeff bezos' tweet the other day where he said time to batten down the hatches, the probabilities of a recession is growing. is that something that makes you more cautious on a name like

amazon >> you absolutely have to be we put out a tweet yesterday retweeting jeff bezos' tweet, and i don't typically retweet people because that's so important, because companies when they -- and by the way, for those who haven't looked at that tweet, he retweeted what the goldman sachs ceo had to say about how tough the environment was going to be going forward. and amazon's got a great picture, much like fedex does, on the entire economy because they ship so much stuff to so many people in so many regions across the globe if you look at the prime day numbers they just reported, off the second prime day, they talked about 100 million units shipped over two days. the first prime day, there were 300 million units shipped over one day. so clearly, it doesn't look based on their own press releases that the second prime day was nearly as strong as the first one. so i look at that tweet and go, okay most likely into their print, unless something changes, we'll probably be short the stock a

little bit or the very least, not involved because he's a very smart man, and i'm not going to ignore something like that because he doesn't put out things like that very often. >> all right, always good to get the bear necessities with you, dan niles. >> thank you >> in the meantime, a tale of two outcomes for chip names. don't miss the key winners and losers and what china has to do with it when we come back. good luck. td ameritrade, this is anna. hi anna, this position is all over the place, help! hey professor, subscriptions are down but that's only an estimated 15% of their valuation. do you think the market is overreacting? how'd you know that? the company profile tool, in thinkorswim®. yes, i love you!! please ignore that. td ameritrade. award-winning customer service that has your back.

- yieldstreet presents: alternative investing td ameritrade. with kal penn and older kal penn. - oh, the stock market is doing that fun thing again. - hey news from the future, you're going to live through that about 10 more times. (laughs) - oh, it's no stress. i just discovered yieldstreet. they vet investments that don't ride the stock market rollercoaster. - ooh. i think some of my gray hairs just reversed. - yeah. you're welcome. - [narrator] become an investor today. yieldstreet: private market investing.

lam research, the latest chip name to take the hit from china restrictions, warning revenue could fall more than $2.5 billion in q3 although strong results are helping the stock today. kristina partsinevelos has a breakdown of the sector. >> lam is up over 10%, but right now, china peers worried chinese ministers had an emergency meeting, several emergency meetings to discuss the restrictions those china restrictions we're referring to are new u.s. export controls that aim to choke china of the ability to make advance chips premierly used to the military lam, like you mentioned, isn't alone in warning about the financial hit from the new rules. applied materials and nvidia have warned of at least $400 million in revenue hits in the next quarter some names say the impact is minimal, so we know it will cost

these companies in lost revenue, but what about the unintended consequences for american chip americaers asml pointed out they have a few or they had few u.s. parts in their machines allowing them to continue shipping certain machines to china regardless of the u.s. rules. businesses could shift to other countries like taiwan or japan tsmc is considering japan because of geopolitical risk not the united states. lastly, if china can't make advanced chips they could focus on low-end chips making it harder for companies like intel to compete on price. many of thee companies have already received a one-year reprieve from the chip restrictions, but the new rules put companies like samsung and sk from south korea in a tough spot to remain neutral considering they already have a presence in china. for now, china still lags behind taiwan, south korea, and the united states in manufacturing the most high-tech chips but the

new export rules are in pursuit of artificial intelligence dominance and ultimately economic dominance in the coming decades. >> and if chinese policymakers are worried, you have to wonde if retaliation is part of this equation, if and how that happens. >> exactly good piper sandler with an ear to the ground this morning when it comes to spotify initiating the name at neutral, $87 price target catch the full call at cnbc.com. we're back in two. hi, my name is tony cooper, and i'm going to tell you about exciting medicare advantage plans that can provide broad coverage and still may save you money on monthly premiums and prescription drugs. with original medicare you are

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more after the break with verizon on deck. at&t still up 9% stay with us - yieldstreet presents: alternative investing with kal penn and older kal penn. - oh, the stock market is doing that fun thing again. - hey news from the future, you're going to live through that

about 10 more times. (laughs) - oh, it's no stress. i just discovered yieldstreet. they vet investments that don't ride the stock market rollercoaster. - ooh. i think some of my gray hairs just reversed. - yeah. you're welcome. - [narrator] become an investor today. yieldstreet: private market investing.

tonight an outperformer this morning after strong results julia boorstin has all the latest >> as we see at&t shares up about 9% the company beat expectations on the top and bottom lines with the earnings of 68 cents per share. that beat expectations by 7 cents, revenue of $30 billion also coming in higher than expected and those beats were thanks to much higher mobile subscriber additions that an anticipate the ceo saying he is concerned about inflation but he is confident about the strategy to grow subscribers and revenue >> what we look at right now is a strong performing network. we like the fact we've got the latitude and flexibility to invest through the cycle right now because it is in fact improved network on both fiber

and wireless it's given us the good growth and good customer subscriber numbers. >> the company did raise prices. stankey said that went exactly as planned and many customers moved into plans with more features >> julia, doesn't it make you question how netflix's subscriber beat was. >> i guess the question is which of these are utilities i would say that mobile phone service is probably the most important thing, certainly netflix thinks that it's essential as well. >> julia, thank you. and i know you're looking ahead to this as well because today's the day. cnbc's disrupter 50 summit kicking off, bringing you the latest trends disrupting, enabling, and empowering growth. and guess what there's still time to sign-up. pull out your phone. scan that qr code on your screen to register. please gto oo ur website we're back in a moment

hi, my name is tony cooper, and i'm going to tell you about exciting medicare advantage plans that can provide broad coverage and still may save you money on monthly premiums and prescription drugs. with original medicare you are covered for hospital stays and doctor office visits but you have to meet a deductible for each, and then you're still responsible for 20% of the cost. next, let's look at a medicare supplement plan. as you can see, they cover the same things as original medicare, and they also cover

your medicare deductibles and coinsurance. but they often have higher monthly premiums and no prescription drug coverage. now, let's take a look at humana's medicare advantage plans. with a humana medicare advantage plan, hospitals stays, doctor office visits and your original medicare deductibles are covered. and, of course, most humana medicare advantage plans include prescription drug coverage. with no copays or deductibles on tier 1 prescriptions, and zero dollars for routine vaccines, including shingles, at in-network retail pharmacies. in fact, in 2021, humana medicare advantage prescription drug plan members saved an estimated $9,600 on average on their prescription costs. most humana medicare advantage plans have coverage for vision and hearing. and dental coverage that includes two free cleanings a year, plus dentures, crowns, fillings and more! most humana medicare advantage plans include a silver sneakers fitness program at no extra cost. you get all of this for

as low as a zero-dollar monthly plan premium in many areas; and your doctor and hospital may already be a part of humana's large network. there is no obligation, so call the number on your screen right now to see if your doctor is in our network; to find out if you could save on your prescriptions, and to get our free decision guide. humana, a more human way to healthcare. let's get a check on the markets. the dow is up 225 points, the nasdaq coming off its session highs but still up 1%. top gainers helping the nasdaq

100. we've got a lot of the chip makers you've also got data dog and zoom at the top there, guys. more earnings to come. robert points out that there's an 83% beat rate so far, john. we're still early, though. >> yeah, and today i've got my eye sign of the times, sign of the day on shopify e commerce name has been beaten down, that's earnings. hashicorp. risk is on >> indeed. i did notice bernstein today reminded us of snap and talked about how august revenue had accelerated. they say it's become a sneakily hedge fund long against those who are excited about the prospect of october showing another acceleration we'll see. >> yeah, absolutely. there's a lot of optimism at the moment heading into this earnings season.

no earnings apocalypse for now, but, hey, maybe that'll be q4, q1 i don't know, everyone is watching and waiting >> we'll wait for those big prints tonight and see what it might mean for some megacap tech as dan niles said as we get into next week. for now let's get to the judge and the half all right, carl, thank you very much. and welcome to the halftime report out front funds and interest rates. we discuss and debate that with the investment committee joining me for the hour today. we do have a pretty nice move in the market going on. let's check the markets today. we do have best week since late july for the s&p and the nas the dow is holding on 200 plus the yield on the ten-yea