tv Options Action CNBC October 22, 2022 6:00am-6:30am EDT
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mikeco and special appearance by dennis -- carter what is it? >> it was many of the same. 15 weeks in a row, near record, gold recovering a bit. and here too, we're basically where we were in june. not much happening. it will get down to the earnings can deliver next week. >> dennis? >> nothing like a two and a half percent broad market rally and friday to make it feels like it is summertime, even though it is not. we're not seeing much of a compression. the mark was up today. the mix of was pretty much unchanged, down 60.
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options are fairly priced right here. >> mike, did you get the summertime vibes too? >> no, i don't think i am, really. we had so much coming into this week. we saw a couple of good things come in week, and you mentioned netflix, the results were good there. that kind of thing is going to lend some support. everyone is looking for maybe a little green, you could say. and everyone is also holding out some hope that the feds will take their brake off a little bit. i don't think they will by the next meeting. i think even the weak markets, i think that is what we're in, we'll see solid weeks. that is what we got. >> hold on to your hats. next one is the big one for
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tech earnings. what are you looking at for apple, google and microsoft? >> let's get to it apple continues to be the one that acts the best, despite being down. year to date performance versus google, tells the tail. call it 30% for the other two down plus or minus. and going -- apple is down half that. excuse me. and look at the this chart. so you'll see here a comparative chart. the ladder of microsoft and google is frick and frack. you cannot see a difference. if you look at the three companies individually, this really gets to. what do we know about where we are in relation show where we've been. microsoft's june low is
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annotated there on the line. and we broke below that. and we came back to it but that is where you usually fail. look at google. it is the exact same circumstance. we breeches the june level. we rallied back to the level from what the stock broke down by definition of level and overhead supply. look at happen appeal. apple never got anywhere near the june level. and what we know from here is if as the others fail and they rally back to the break point and apple were to join them there, is no way in the s&p 500 by virtue of the weight that the stocks are in the index. >> there we go. >> for the trade for all three of these, mike, kick things off with microsoft. >> this is a tough one. when i think of tech companies that i like, we're not along my
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tech companies, but energy. microsoft is a company that seems to be executing exceptionally well. we look at year an year 10% revenue in growth. they're in hybrid cloud with the teams product. they're basically able to adapt to a change in the work environment. i think the struggle for them is that we are in a contract gives multiple government and concerns about declining earnings environment. so i think we're - i think this creates some pressure for microsoft and earnings on a trailing basis. that say significant premium to the s&p 500 right now, trading around 17. one of the things that is not depressed are the option premiums going into earnings. that is about two standard about the 2, 5, and 10-year
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norms. and that gives you an opportunity. with the stock around 238, i was looking at the 255 call spread. it is 40% between the distances between the strikes. and the call, at time i was looking at it, was 3% of the money. the stock did rally by the end of the day. when you come in on monday, if you're looking to put on a tried like this, you want to make sure that you adjust your strikes accordingly. but when you can put on a credit spread and going no a catalyst like this when they are above the averages as they are in this case, i think that is a good seller. >> dennis, you're trading two other biggest names apple and alphabet. start off with apple. >> apple, what they're expanding on is their services. it moved away from the watts and phone cycles and moved more into different services. you can only see the great pumpkin on apple tv.
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so they have a lock on that the trades i like looking at in apple, back to what carter said, is how well it can behave. if you look at the at in dubuque, you dubai, they do two calls against it. if you look at the break evens on the trade, that gives them a $3 trillion market cap. there is a big space there and the green pyramid on the trade right now that shows you where the trade is profitable. be orbs of sell cautious of selling two upside calls. the structure where people are
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out reaching for calls to apple it may be an oversized option. >> he hit it on the head. selling naked calls is a strategy that i think can be dangerous in a lot of instances. we have seen the stocks, especially the stocks really rip. but -- if there is any stock where that is less likely to occur, apple has to be in it. we're talking about the largest company in the world right now outside of the saudi arabia oil right now. i would add one thing, too. this is a popular trade. if you owned apple and owned it at higher level and thought about add to because of earnings, you may want to have
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this in additional stock and then you will not have the naked exposure on the upside. >> can you give us your google trade in stock? >> google is the opposite of what i just set with apple. with google trading around a $100, if it doesn't behave well, if things fall apart, you can go out and you can sell one of google 100 puts for about 4 and a half dollars and buy three of $90 puts. you're not going to lose the $90. you'll get longer and longer volatility with google. it may fall apart in the broader market. it is a risky trade. the rate of acceleration and the rate of profitability once you are below that 90 strike is
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pretty dramatic. you're selling one and roughly a dollar and a half for the other three. if you're wrong and the market -- we all know that the marks are higher. if the markets are higher, you're not losing money on the trade if you hold to expiration. >> what do you think? >> one way to think about a trade like this is you're making a bet that out of this, three things could happen. the stocks go higher. no harm no foul. if it breaks lower, it is likely to break significant lower. and i like the trade set up for that. i will point up that this is a company that has a great deal of cash on the balance sheet and net on the net basis over a $100 billion. that does create some degree of insulation on the downside. it is one of the creative things that people should contemplate if they think about
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having a market like this. things could start moving sharply. >> how do the charts look on this one? >> so the issue is the ones that are broken below like apple. we know that the nasdaq 100 has had a total positive return for 13 years in a row till this year. we're now down, of course. there is no other index that has managed that in history. and we're going to have a down year. interestingly, at the mid-year point, when you look at poll, half the respondents will say they will recover. they're not recovering. what if they get deeply worse next week in response to the earnings? >> that is the question. there is much more options
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welcome back. you think there is a comparison of the there are and the japanese yen. it is up this week in this chart. and you get technical setups just before the fundamentals come out. so there was intervention on part of the boj and the yen faltered. it briefly went above and then faltered. there were buyers stepping in. the question the dollar. so we've done a couple dollar trades in the past. and i want to look at that again. the next chart is the u. up.
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we know, hearsay, hereto, up is up and down is down. and now we're falling back into it. i think the dollar will go to the lower band. this is the uup again. you see the sequences after a strong advance, you're getting move. and it reasserts itself and a new high and then again a counter trend. we're in a counter-trend move we have a lower dollar. >> take us through your trade. >> there are atfs that track the yen specifically. but the uup are the easier and better way to play it.
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about the reason or that is the uup will be a little tighter. the other thing that will affect the dollar relative to other currencies is what our central bank is doing what other central banks are doing. we know there is about a 75 hike point with near certainty for november. of course there, is a lot of conversations going on about whether or not they are talking about moderating potentially the pace of the likes or the size of these hikes. i think a 75 base hike in december. the price this week was about a coin toss, 50/50. if they slow the rate hikes or suspend them briefly starting n starting in december because i think november is a lock, it will cause a play on the dollar
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basis. if you look at the prices outright for the uup options, you may say they don't look that expensive. they don't move that much. but on a relative basis, they are actually above average. that is why i'm interested in using the spread. i was looking to the december regular way expiration to 31-29 spread. when uup was spreading $30.15, you could use 89 cents for the spread. it is close to zero now, a nickel. the idea being that uup is like the currency that are under pennant, or not going to move a great deal, just in relative to
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itself. so we're using a foot spread that are not needing them too in order to profit. >> we saw unusual action when it comes to currency. so, dennis, what is your take on mike's trade? >> mistake on mike's trade is it is a great trade. seriously, currencies don't move much. i'm the one people in the show that will say that is what the younger guys think. you look at what happened with the england with the pound a month ago. so i think we're moving into a new world order in currency trading. i think the volatility will return the currencies. and as certain countries move out of stimulus and tightening, when some can, others can't. that is why mike's trade is so great. i can tell you this, in my
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years of doing this, the biggest unwinds are the biggest shocks to the currency trades. is it the australian dollar. so having the options is the absolute best way would have doing it. it is one of those jumps we're seeing and trending over. you can look at the european vick is lower than the u.s. vick. they have a war going on over there. the whole global decentralization of it, options are the way to go. i like mike's trade. i would bet on it. if he was wrong in the error of his youth it is still a good stock trade. >> bring it back to me, mike. >> so i'm not that young
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starting. only a couple years behind dennis, actually. i think we're in our 50s. if i got that wrong, dennis, i apologize. we see the swiss devalue the frank just a few years ago. so there are circumstances where -- that is the interesting thing about currencies too. so you have policymakers that can make the unilateral determinations that have a sharp and immediate impact. that many central banks are moving parallel. and some of that increased volatility is priced into options. some of the biggest for the tunes that have ever been made in the options marks and future markets were in currencies. and that may happen again. >> we'll let you work out older and younger after the break. a look at twitter and to
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time and the tweet-based look-back. just last friday, carter and mike laid out the company's results on tuesday. the stock popped the earnings up about 25% this week. so let's go with one of the young guys here. mike, how do you do this one? >> you think we take the money and run. >> dennis? it is friday -- on this friday's show, the 23, you had a mystery that was way out for next year. what is your position? >> leave it on. if you look at the trade, it pays a lot of money on the market and craps out. it has not cost you very much and trading about the same price. hopefully the green blob on the right-hand side hopefully allows you to sleep at night. >> i would sit it on myself, if
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of heat. >> yes. i'm going to put a spread in the u. p short dollar. >> there it is. that does it for us here on options action. do not go anywhere. "mad money" with jim kramer starts right now. (dramatic music) ♪ i really can see the difference. i can see this hair coming in. i have hair on my head. i can brush my hair now. within two months, i've gotten my hair back. it's just like a second chance on life. ♪ no hormones, no surgery. ♪
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