we got to cut back." they'll always have sentimental value. >> my dad says, "this is my wedding gift." >> wow. >> it is absolutely nice to share something that you love with somebody you love. you can't get any better than that. [crowing] ♪ good morning happy monday welcome to "street signs." i'm julianna tatelbaum these are your headlines china tech heavyweights hit record lows after xi jinping con the sol dates the grip on power. surging energy costs push german activity to a two h-year

low as inflation weighs. and former uk chancellor as rischi is closing in on prime minister welcome to "street signs." we kick off the show with the pmi. the october flash figures are in the october flash composite pmi has come in at 47.1. that is down a full point from september when it was 48.1 the manufacturing sector pmi at 46.6 that is significantly below where we were in september 48.4

a drop from 48.4 to 46.6 in terms of services, there we have a drop as well. not as severe. the services pmi at 48.2 for october. down from 48.8 in september. so pmi lower in themonth of october. in terms of the detail, chris williamson at smp global says the euro szone is set to contra. adding speculation that a recession is looking increasingly inveviinevitable weaker than expected sales especially as winter approaches. the risks are tilted to the down turn accelerating toward year end. they think the inventory comments are interesting and inventory color within the pmi

last week shares tumbled dropping 8% on friday. that was due to high inventory levels and they have to reduce prices to try to move that inventory. the fact we are seeing that trend come up in the pmi is worrying as we head into earnings season. let's look at european equities we start on the front foot at 0.76% 0.76% building on the gains. despite the pull back on friday, european equities under performed the u.s. counter pa parts. dow 4.9% higher for the week s&p 4.7% higher. european equities lagging the u.s. we brace for a big week here in the uk we have the prime minister contest under way.

we could potentially have news as early as today and latest on friday rishi sunak closing in on number 10 we will have live coverage throughout the program from westminster. then on the data front, we have the u.s. data toward the end of the week and ecbm and doj on thursday and friday. all that as earnings get under way. u.s. tech giants reporting a huge week for markets. let's break it down. ftse 100 down .30% perhaps some of that with the pound. dax up 6%. similar gains for italian and french markets in switzerland, up 1%. similar for the spanish markets. from the sector, we have media out in front up 1.8% utilities and food and beverage. a tilt to the defensive sectors.

on the down side, oil and gas under perp forming down 1.1%. we are seeing resilience in the european market given what we saw in asia overnight. first, u.s. futures. wall street pointing to a weaker start. again, this is a major week for earnings stateside the federal reserve enters a blackout period ahead of the fmoc next week don't expect to get a lot on the monetary pollicy front. let's get to asia. pretty remarkable given the extent of the selling in asia overnight. hang seng down 6.6%. we are seeing heavy selling in the hong kong tech stocks as you saw in the headlines there after xi jinping confirmed

his third term as president consolidating power in china and not making any way for ref reformists or market friendly leaders within his leadership circle we are seeing major selling in the hong kong tech stocks as a result you see 12% or 13% lower for the big names. we will detail everything china later in the program back to europe germany and france with business activity contract in october energy costs pushed flash pmi to the 29-month low the services figure fell in france, inflation fears hit activity with the flash services reading falling to 51.3. the manufacturing sank to a 2.5 year low of 47.4 we have sterling trading higher against the dollar

that is part of why we are seeing a down turn in the ftse 100. in the euro, we are seeing a bit of weakness. down .30%. dollar/yen is trading 1% higher at 149 let's welcome our first guest. head of global views thank you so much for being with us so much to talk about in fx markets and fixed income markets. let's kickoff with your view on the fed given how important the fed is for every asset class at the moment the market is starting to eye the possibility of a dovish fed pivot. once again, what is your take is that something we should be positioning for in the coming months >> we need to look at the fed rea reaction they have done a lot in terms of monetary policy. we expect 75 in the next fmoc.

that being said, what we would like to indicate is that they will need a pace if you call that a pivot, that pivot is likeliy by the end of the year this is not a game changer we are getting closer to the terminal rate that will not be reached before the first quarter of next year so let's be cautious when it comes to the fed reaction with inflation in the united states the real fed fund rate by core inflation is in negative territory. the fed wants to bring back interest rates in positive territory. that being said, in the first quarter of 2023, the fed will want to wait and see and watch and see. monetary policy and economic

activity and inflation will lag. it will be quite wise to watch and see at some point. >> that lag is certainly complicating the fed's task at the moment when is it realistic to determine whether the fed has tightened too much when will they actually know if they are overtightening? >> well, they are waiting for some move in the market. so far, the u.s. economy is resilient. look at the job market for instance my point is if financial conditions were tight, you would already see cracks in the market i believe they will start to stop hiking rates and wait and see to be sure on the one hand core inflation has peaked and the next step is the deceleration in inflation. on the other hand, when they will see at the same time, some

detail evaluation in the job market we don't expect recession next year we expect lower than 1% growth that is very low that is not recession. should u.s. economy experience recession, it is not a game changer for the fed. as the fed will monitor the possibility of the financial crisis or coming to the down turn we don't believe the economic down turn is in the pipeline the priority is curb inflation expectations the fed needs to see a peak in the core inflation core inflation they want to curb that and interest rates remain low and in negative territory. >> you sound more optimistic than most guests on the program from the dprgrowth perspective x

year obviously major developments with srishi sunak closing in on number 10. and the tax relief policies out. what does it mean for the british currency >> first of all, for the uk, it is time to fix the situation we understand the u-turn in terms of fiscal policy back to realistic program with rishi sunak. at the end of the day, he is the one. he has to be confirmed should it be mr. sunak at the end of the day he was right in the summer against the cuts it would be more realistic from the fiscal standpoint. it does not mean he will go back to the initial point rapidly it is a loss of credibility for the british policymakers and bank of england. they need to come back with a realistic program and against

his back drop, it should be a positive issue for the bond yields that peaked during the fiscal crisis. this being said, we need to be cautious we need to see really what program they have in mind and the global picture for the british companies which is bleak. there will be close to recession. when you said that, it is true for the united states risks remain to the down side. we don't expect recession, but risk is to the down side in the united states and in the uk for sure despite the return to more realistic program and in the eurozone where recession is here already that is a big picture for the global economy >> i appreciate the insight and the nuance there let's wrap it up with what is

happening in japan the yen hit a 32-year low against the u.s. dollar before surging on friday. obviously, a lot of volatility and question marks about the degree to which we see intervention what kind of intervention has been done in the last 72 hours with the bank of japan on friday your advice? >> the bank of japan may have intervened, but at the end of the day, we know the only way to incur on fixed markets is a joint venture in the fixed market we are not there yet it is true we see the excessive moves almost everywhere. yen is weak. euro is weak the sterling is weak and dollar has become strong. at some point, the dollar remains a good edge in these uncertain times. there is no, i would say, safe zone as well as the u.s.

treasury market. that being said, at some point, global policymakers need to incur more realistic rates japanese may want to intervene on the fixed markets as long as they intervene, they will need to wait for joint intervention and i told you we are not there yet. >> thank you so much for joining us philips posted a 5% philantdrop in sales. the dutch company is reducing its work force by 5% it comes after the recall of medical equipment wiped out more than 2/3 of the company market value. new ceo roy jacobs said philips

hadn't met the expectations of stake holders in the clast few years. and pearson has strong progress in the first nine months of the year sales rose fueled by english language learning. the ceo said the company benefitted from the stronger u.s. dollar. >> enormous disruption over the past few weeks let us hope that we can bring some stability back to the markets and particularly the currency markets ironically, we're a beneficiary since we earn so much revenue in the u.s. we fear a gain as a result of the shift in the currency market coming up on the show and then there were two. former pm boris johnson drops

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welcome back to the program. the uk could have a new prime minister as soon as this afternoon after former pm boris johnson pulled out of the competition leaving rishi sunak and penny mordaunt as the remaining contenders sunak is the favorite to win with the support of half the party. michael gove has come out to support him with jeremy hunt mordaunt has just 25 backers she will need to find 75 more by 2:00 p.m. to avoid being knocked out of the contest with the results announced on friday if she cannot make it to 100 or decides to step aside, sunak will become prime minister there is the countdown clock to when cnominations close. what a day in the uk

the uk gilt in the market v reaction the 10-year trading at 3.9%. let's get to arabile i'm keen to hear the latest from him. he is on the ground covering it for us arabile, is it looking like we will have a contest or is it in the bag for rishi sunak? >> reporter: that's a key question, julianna nobody knows for sure, i suppose. it does point to the gilt market which is pointing toward what could be known as a rishi rally. not knowing for sure at present, we know penny mordaunt is in the running for prime minister we haven't heard her back away from it. maybe something is afoot maybe she is able to gather enough votes to still stand as nominee for prime minister if that is the case, of course, we move beyond 2:00 p.m. today and we move all the way toward friday because then the party

will decide. the conservative party that is will decide who will become the prime minister from now, however, we know that verbally and vocally, we are hearing there are 25 backers for penny mordaunt what an interesting element that brings because on the other side, nearly half the party is still with rishi sunak but you must be clear because we have word from a spokesperson for rishi sunak who has spoken out to some of the local media and really saying that we are not taking anything for granted. rishi will be continuing to talk to colleagues before nomination papers go in and discussing how best to unite the party and take the country forward. uniting the party certainly is one big part of the entire equation of course, it is what boris johnson and his letter having taken himself out of the running

where he said he could not stand because it wasn't the right time, but two, because the party was not able to unite and you cannot govern with a party that is not united in parliament. rishi sunak, if he is to take the office then at 10 downing street, will certainly need to unite the party as well and penny mordaunt hasn't gotten herself out of the running this will be still key to look at up until later today. 2:00 p.m. local time is what we are looking at >> arabile, thank you for the scene setter 2:00 p.m from the uk to italy where there has been a lot of changes. the brothers of italy has been sworn in as the first female prime ministering moving the country firmly to the right. giancarlo takes the debt ministry position. the foreign ministry was handed

to the pro european antonio tajani claudia is joining us right now. help us understand the cabinet leaders are poised to do and what is at the top of the agenda from the policy perspective? >> first of all, to give you a better understanding, giancarlo is viewed as a moderate pro european member of his right wing party part of the lega party he is a veteran to politics. he has been in politics for 26 years. he has good relations and known for networking he has been in the government under draghi so he has worked with franco the outgoing minister who in an interview said he is convinced giorgetti is the right man for

the job. he is convinced he will do well in the post. he is convinced of the importance of supporting proper tuck di pro productivity that is important with the recession. and the work with the draghi government, a lot of numbers were improved. 6.7% for gdp the first half of 2022, 3.6% the slowdown in the third and fourth quarter a lot of issues that we are facing that will be dealt with by giorgetti that revolve with ngs and energy crisis and the other ukrainian crisis the tail end of the pandemic the budget law that needs to be laid out that has a deadline coming up closely. you know, the only issues that that is not who meloni wanted initially. she tapped the ecb board member

who did not accept the position. foreign minister that you mentioned is a close ally to berlisconi he has a very long experience in politics and has had important posts also in the european parliament as well as the european commission. viewed well from the outside from international standpoint. of course, what is important is will the meloni government be able to move forward and work without obstacles? he wanted the interior and did not get that post. he made be not making life as easy as meloni would have hoped. also, berlusconi has been wrecking havoc it is still early days to see whether she can actually move

forward and do what it is she wants to do. certainly the objectives are quite clear and mario draghi in passing the baton to her yesterday in the meeting which was historically very long normally the passing of the baton is done quickly. it is a ceremony and tradition that doesn't last more than 10 or 15 minutes. they stayed and had a meeting over an hour's time. it is an indication there will be continuity. the government said it needs to have continuity because this is a political government versus the technocrat government before the continuity will be there you get that impression from very long meeting and that impression from the fact that the transition minister working under draghi is also going to stay on. he is staying on as a counselor for the energy aspects you get the feeling that meloni has had positive relationship

with draghi so far and intends to continue to sort of have him on the sidelines and somebody she may turn to when in need the view from the outside is that even though this is a right-wing government and made up of right-wing coalition, it will most likely in the first part of the mandate continue moving forward in a very stable way that somehow guarantees continuity there is the resilience issue that we are covering resilience plan needs to keeping moving forward with targets and mileston milestones italy has a lot of work to do. >> claudia, thank you so much for the breakdown. we will see if italy can pull it off. coming up on the program tech takes a tumble in hong kong as xi jinping draws power comparing him to mao 'lbeig bk.wel rhtac

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welcome back to "street signs. i'm julianna tatelbaum these are your headlines china tech heavyweights hit

record lows after xi jinping confirms his grip on power gdp is shy of target. and slows to the fastest pace since the height of the pandemic as inflation takes its toll across the block. and gilt yields fall as rishi sunak is appearing to close in on 10 downing street. aiming to make second time lucky in the prime minister. and giorgia meloni is sworn in as prime minister unveiling the right-wing government. the biggest since world war ii we've got the flash uk pmi for october. the composite for the uk coming in at 47.2 a sharp drop from where we were in september 49.1 in terms of the breakdown now,

manufacturing in the uk pmi at 45.8 lower than 48.4 in september services sector in the uk also now in contraction territory 47.5 we were at the break even level of 50 in september so the pmi in the uk painting a negative picture of the outlook for the uk economy in terms of the detail here, we've got lines coming from s&p global which delivers the survey as night follows day and inve investment will fall as we adjust to the increasing hiring with manufacturing now shedding workers. on top of the collapse of political stability, financial stress, these higher borrowing costs will add to a deep uk recession. hard to imagine a more daunting

line coming out of the survey provider and in terms of what's next we have the medium term budget set to be announced on october 31st we will see once we have our new prime minister a lot in the uk. sterling holding on the gain now up 12 basis points to 113.15 it is all about the politics today, no doubt. and in equity markets. under performance in the ftse 100. lower in equities as the pound moves higher outside of the uk, modest gains. off the highs of the day dax is up .20% swiss market up .60% we are seeing more demand for the defensive sectors in europe at the expense of the cyclical parts of the equity markets. big week for earnings. big week for central banks with

ecb and boj on friday. we have more data from the united states later in the week. forex markets. weakness in the euro against the dollar down .40%. the greenback is holding well against the swiss franc. we are watching the yen and the yuan on the backof the nationa congress that has taken place over the last week speaking of china, chinese third quarter gdp rising by 3.9% on the year. that is a pick up from august and brings year to date to 30% t 3% the data was set for release on october 18th you remember it was delayed the day before elsewhere, retail sales rose 2.5% worse than expected. a market slowdown from august.

industrial production topped expectation. jumping 6.3% the market action has been not for the faint hearted. in asia, hang seng down more than 6%. shanghai and shenzhen pulling back as well the heaviest selling of all coming from the tech stock here is the look at the majors meituan down 14% baidu and alibaba down 11% and 12%. heavy selling. chinese president xi jinping consolidated the grip on power paving the way as third term as president and breaking a precedent which could see him remain leader for life he is the most powerful leader since chairman mao xi's re-election of the party was no surprise. the six people selected for his

top team was less clear cut. xi has gone for loyalty over experience bringing several close by in the standing committee sam is here with more. sam, i'm curious of your take of what is driving the tech stocks lower this morning >> good morning, julianna. as you say, some double digit losses in some of the big tech names today. of course, we know that one of the big signals that president xi jinping has been sending to the markets the last week is continuity in terms of the party's positioning around zero covid which has taken an enormous hit to the economy. also on issues like common prosperity or not an issue, but a campaign that has underpinned the volatility that we have seen the last few years or so particularly around the tech space and also real estate and

education. we have to remember this was the underlining campaign that drove the anti-monopoly that aimed to rein the strength of the tech giants president xi jinping sort of attempted to define this campaign a little bit better last week when he spoke in the opening of the 20th party congress suggesting there would be more regulation around the accumulation of wealth perhaps this is a belated reaction to some of the comment. this is reaction that the markets are getting to react to the leadership reshuffle which as you pointed out certainly saw president xi jinping stacking his inner circle full of low the al loyalists. there is no diversity from other

factions and there is a balance of power we know li xi came out behind x jinping in the lineup in the committee yesterday. he is widely expected to be the next premier we saw other fresh faces it is who stepped down from the bureau who was telling as well as to president xi jinping's grip on power. this was a reminder of that and confirmation of the con the sol dag consolidation of how he handled the power and driving the economic agenda. you had li keqiang who retired and wang yang as well. i can't go without reminding viewers of that very bizarre moment, julianna, where we saw the former premier escorted out

of the great hall which led to speculation if this is a power the politics at play we must say the official line is that he was feeling unwell many analysts are not buying that reasoning back to you. >> sam, thank you so much for that breakdown what a mysterious exit indeed. we will take that up with duncan rigley before we come to that, which captured the attention of so many of odd scenes from congress you wrote a line in your latest research that stuck oust to me you said why -- you said xi jinping is actually more pragmatic than usually given credit for all of the headlines have been about him consolidating power and choosing loyalists over any technocrats or market-friendly

leaders. what makes you think we have it wrong in his level of pragmatism >> so, one example is his view on common prosperity if you look at what he is saying in the speeches, it evolved over time and also the initial approach of prosperity was harsh and led to the selloff of stocks and online education. later on, you read that xi jinping is talking about the need to both grow the pie as well as divide it more evenly. it is emphasis or this readding in the idea that growth is necessary. it is not just about evenly splitting everything that makes me think there is a degree of prapragmatism. you see that in the policy some of the policy with tech stocks is softened after that. >> interesting you mention tech

and the stance toward regulation and technology given the heavy, heavy selloff in the tech sector today. it seems investors are bracing for a more strict environment. >> i would see this as continuity the lines of monopoly have been emph emphasized many sets of the regulations to the tech companies are implemented. details are still ironed out ove overall, the stance of the government has become on balance more positive over last year i think one negative thing to think about, although this is more on the chip side, obviously the tougher approach from the u.s. in terms of trying to choke off china's access to advance semiconductors and manufacturing equipment and technology maybe that is also what's

weighing on the stock market >> fair point. if viewers take your view, this could be a different issue for stocks duncan, the congress was a huge event for all leadership in china. likely put a lot of policy making on hold what is going to get the green light? what will we see exaccelerated o the congress is behind us? >> well, i would say there is a short term and longer term short term, we are in transition the government appointed party positions. the rest in 2023 so there is still a transition period in which policy and continuity is the watch word zero covid policy. no substantial change. most of it fiscal and infrastructure that kind of thing longer term, by that i mean

perhaps starting from mid 2023 onward, there is the possibility of a shift and it does come down to president xi jinping who is now obviously consolidated power, if anything else. it comes down to him making a decision i can't read his mind. all i can say in some cases, he has been more pragmatic. there is a possibility if right conditions are in place, there could be a start of a shift toward the kind of policies which would be more conducive to market private sector growth for example, the implementation of the zero covid policy to allow more business over time. >> duncan, tens dlstencent withe largest decline since 2008 heavy selling in the tech stocks

duncan, let me get your take at the closing ceremony unexpectedly escorted out of the party congress i have seen all kinds of speculation around the reason for his departure. do you have a take any insight for us >> well, like anyone who is not inside the inner circle, i can only speculate looking at the evidence in front of us. i lean toward something more likely of an official explanation of a health issue. one reason for that is he did appear on the state media. the 7:900 news the day he was escorted out of the incident if there had been a purge and he was going to be in trouble, i would not expect him to appear on the news. so, let's see. i also believe in previous days

of the congress he had also been escorted in and out of the congress presumably because of the health issues. >> fair enough i appreciate your view although as you said you are watching as we are duncan, lastly on the covid front for the international community and this is perhaps one of the most pressing near term questions what is the path forward to a reopening? what do you think? what is your expectation to when we could see china reopening in a meaningful way >> i think the earliest start day may be mid next year it may be longer than that i think there are two considerations one is a technical side and the other is a political side. when does china get suitable vac

sa cination mrna these technical public health conditions will help to insulate the impact of china's population against covid. and the second thing is political. when there is a decision to say weighing on the economic costs against the risks of obviously the health issues and deaths and serious illness. when does that calculus become suit suitable for the top leadership lean toward economic growth? i will say the timing may be a bit further off. way before any of this starts to happen, you will be able to see some lead indicators what i would point to is as part of the preparations for any reopening, the government will have to carry out a massive kind of propaganda or public health

campaign to persuade the population which are currently very scared of the health consequences of covid. they hear of all of the terrible things around the world. that narrative will have to change to persuade the population months in advance that actually covid is something that like elsewhere in the world, something that the chinese people can live with over time. that will be the thing to look out for. >> duncan, thank you for joining us duncan wrigley for more on the new cases of the china committees and who is not there, check out cnbc.com. let's switch gears credit suisse reached settlement with the french court approving agreement with credit suisse and

the prosecution office to settle a money laundering case. this was a big outstanding issue for the swiss lender in terms of the numbers, this is around a case in the country with 238 million euro payment to the state. according to the judge today this is comprised for public interest settlement and disbursement of 665 million euro credit suisse will pay for damages to the french state. this is all taking place before the october 27th announcement due from the swiss lender. y we will watch that for bigger answers around the path forward for the bank. coming up on the program, tech giants are set to report. we will have more after this

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twelcome back the cryptocurrency has moved in equities and fixed income. there is the picture of the current trading. over the last six months, to give you a sense bitcoin is down 50%. over the past one month, it is up 2%. so relative stability. you can say. binance ceo told "squawk box europe" he expect crypto to grow. >> 80% of the time, the market moves side ways. 20% of the time we see drops and big rises. the market historically goes through four-year cycles the drop is sharper. drop is about a year and two-year recovery and one-year all-time high. that will repeat in the future that's historically the pattern we see right now, it is a sideways

movement there are a lot of dynamic things happening in the world. prime ministers stepping down. other prime ministers getting removed from meetings. et cetera. a lot of turbulence happening in the world. crypto is going sideways for now. fundamentally, technology will stay and the industry will continue to grow if you look long term, 10 or 20 years from now, everybody will be using cryptocurrency. the japanese yen is volatile the trade suggests that the bank of japan intervened. officials declined to comment. traders speaking to the financial times estimate that authorities spent $30 billion on the attempt to prop up the currency the prime minister said over the weekend that the government will take appropriate measures to ensure stability in the market trading below the 150 level.

the federal reserve is expected to raise rates by 75 points next week the officials will debate whether to proceed with smaller increases from next month. san francisco fed president mary daly said the central bank should plan for stepping down. earlier this month, loretta mester said more aggressive hikes are needed that debate around the dovish fed pivot is rearing its head once again. u.s. tech giants are set to report this week alphabet and microsoft will release results for third quarter with cloud growth and advertising in focus meta will follow with the earnings on wednesday and apple and amazon will close off the week on thursday now all of these tech earnings come after a dire profit warning

from spotify excuse me. snap snap with huge pressures on ad revenue. this is something that investors will watch closely also costs focus on costs and if the tech giant will focus more to cut costs as we enter a more difficult economic environment all of this to play for u.s. futures at the moment. we have red across the board dow jones industrial average looking to pull back 100 nasdaq and s&p pulling back modestly all of this after extremely strong finish last week. s&p rallying 2.4% on friday. driven by the materials sector s&p gained 4.7% overall. the strongest weekly performance. nasdaq gained about 5.2% european equities are green for the most part.

ftse 100 is the exception down .50%. this as sterling moves higher. gilt markets are seeing yields most lower today all of this as rishi sunak closes in on downing street. looking to at the moment leading bookmakers in terms of chances of being the next tory leader after boris johnson pulled out last night is it rishi sunak or is it penny mordaunt and rishi sunak running off this week? we will know by friday that is it for "street signs." i'm julianna tatelbaum "worldwide exchange" is up next.

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it is 5:00 a.m. at cnbc global headquarters. here is your top "five@5." the bulls trying to hold on after a wild week of trading that saw the dow do something for the first time since late june investors bracing for the second busiest week of earnings season as 152 s&p companies and is dow get set to report you have the likes of apple the, microsoft and boeing in the uk, former prime minister boris johnson takes his hat out of the