i do think that the stakes are highest for meta. >> oh, really. i thought you were going to say apple. >> i think stakes are highest strategically for meta for the overall market might be apple though apple is not really a bellwether does its own thing. >> we'll see you tomorrow. that does it for us. "fast" is right now. right now on "fast" president xi's tightening vice grips sending shock waves through china, mainland names cratering and u.s. bands lick starbucks and tesla falling too. is conflict replacing capitalism and the factoring relationship between the u.s. and beijing meta's painful pivot all the spending and hiring around the metaverse has pushed the stock down over 60% this year, and one big investor is saying mark zuckerberg enough. is he right? and later, one of our traders making the case that builders might be able to weather the coming economic storm than you

might expect on the desk ton karen finerman, dan nathan, guy adamiy and jeff nels the china etf dropping to an all-time low it's now down 80% from the record high hit. the china large-cap xfi dropped over 9%, on pace for its worst month since september 2011 among the biggest losers, an online recruiting company and fintech firm 360 dij irktech, alibaba dwopg 12.5% dropping to its lowest level since ipoing in 2018 starbucks which are counts children as its second biggest operating region and las vegas sands down more than 10%, yum china down nearly 14, all this after china's president xi jinping locked in an unprecedented third term in office the win sparking fears that his

policies could hamper growth of private firms and make the country uninvestable we've got live reaction now from our eunice yuen in beijing good morning on the ground. >> reporter: hi, melissa president xi, as you said, secured a third five-year term so that much was expected, but the scale of his political victory has made him the most commanding leader since the regime's founder chairman mao. at the end of the week-long communist congress, the elite group was packed with xi's allies and supporters would suggest that president xi is going to have total control over the direction of china now that essentially means that we're going to see a continuation of zero covid controls, a state-led economic policies as well as more hostile stance towards the u.s

in fact, the state news agency says he personally vetted the leadership team with one of the criteria as a fitness to fight the west president xi's dominance seemed to result in a flex move against one of his predecessors, ex-president hu jintao was unsimoniously and abruptly removed from the congress towards the end, and that's been sending a signal to many that china has entered a new era where president xi reigns supreme. mel sal? >> you mentioned signalling a new era, eunice, but the truth is not many people in china are even away interest that hu jintao was escorted out in any fashion. >> reporter: yeah. that's right there are a lot of people who are aware but they speak about it only privately. it's been completely vetted on social media, and in terms of the actual report, the official

media has not been talking about it at all. there was one state media reporter who tweeted, english to a foreign audience, that perhaps he had health issues, but there is some conversation going on in one way that people are trying to talk about it publicly or at least show their sympathy is that they are posting a photo of his empty chair. >> thank you eunice yoon in beijing there are a lot of levels to this in terms of the fears, the impact on u.s. stocks and stocks in china, on the economy here. one is the zero covid policy the number two guy in the politburo was in charm of the two-month lockdown in shanghai he's not backing away. he'll be supporting this policy for sure, and then also the crackdown on the tech sector and entrepreneurs and capitalism at large in china. >> first of all, welcome back. great to have you back eunice is amazing. the 4:00 in the morning, still working. good for her in terms of the stock market this, to me is extraordinarily bearish for what's going on here

now, full disclosure i remain bullish in the short term we talked about that a week and a half ago, how this situation set up the same way it did back in the middle of the june when the market preceded the rally of 19%. up 8% since the lows, another 6%, 7% and then you sell it again and i think that will happen post-election in terms of this story specifically, yeah, far ramifications, far-reaching ramifications and quickly on a trade, what's the holiday around the fourth of july in the united states >> fourth of july. >> anyway, go back and look what happened to alibaba around the fourth of july stock rallied almost 50% we actually talked about it leading up to it i think you have another situation where it's setting up for a trade, traded five times normal volume today and made a low that we haven't seen in six years to your earlier point. you can trade baba from the long side into earnings next week. >> i thought there was a lot to hate about what came out, right? i think the expectations were that it was going to be bad, and i think it sort of exceeded

those expectations you've got so many levels. you've got china's economy just on its own, right, forgetting all the noise around it, right, this is a very different china than the high-growth days that we're used to so that's up then you've got all the ramifications of, you know, him being in total control now, him playing really hardball against the u.s. we haven't really seen that as -- i think as -- as tough as it's going to be we're at the beginning of that so there's, that and then there's just the okay, if anyone was hopeful that maybe it would be different, there's that selling as well so you put all of that together for me in the short term it does make china uninvestable f.tim were here you would make the most money when things go from terrible to just really bad. we're in terrible right now. i would agree with him there i don't know that we're yet ready for really bad. >> for a trade though, dan. >> we get asked this question all the time what's capitulation and what are the components and inputs of

capitulation i think we have an event like this, all expect that had we said was not going to be great news and you have sort of a market reaction to it. that sort of gap i was looking at the fx side, large cap, china, etf, hong kong-listed names in that etf, al bapa, the name that guy just holded, ten cent, baidu, like big names, you know. you can buy that thing down 35%, 40% down from its all-time highs. i took a shot right on the close here, starting to pick at that and looking at calls out in december the calls that i bought, the december 22nd, about 4.5 the price of the etf you think about how this thing is moving around and how much is down i think it's probably uninvestable long term but i think both of you guys are saying it's tradeable right here. >> that's really good. we were talking about that in the green room up day of euphoria which could absolutely happen and that's an interesting trade and you know exactly what you're going to lose you don't need to worry about do i sell it now, i'm down, right.

>> jeff? >> yeah. i mean, look, it's still a massive economy with some growth potential there but we've been thinking about investing in emerging markets differently a lot of people will buy the etf, eem, for example, what do you get, a 50% slug of passive china exposure and i don't think that's what you want right now i think you need to be more selective and have managers that really know the landscape there and can pick the companies that are maybe a little less vulnerable to some of the stuff that we're talking about here. we keep talking about the potential for s&p 500 earnings expectations to come down. so for multi-nationals the strong dollar has been bad this is bad. 7% of s&p earnings come from china so, you know, we talked about it, the likes of starbucks, nike, qualcomm, semis, casinos in the past do you want to own something like wynn which is a binary play on china reopening or would you rather own something like an mgm? i think you have to be thoughtful and understand where the revenue exposure is coming from in this environment and

really going forward because i don't think this is going to change the last thing i'll say is everybody is very focused on k. web for obvious reasons. very obvious if you look at how it's been trading. trading with high bet a. of course those companies have specific issues. k. web arc, for example, .75 so this is trading with the high beta trade of this market. you know, arc's correlation with the s&p 500 is .4, so i think you have these issues that are going away on those stocks, plus the idea that investors are going to be risk averse going forward. that's how the stocks have traded of course, could you trade it for a pop. i think that's very possible, but thinking out a couple of quarters it's a difficult place to be right now. >> you know, jeff, the point that you make is really interesting. u.s. multi-nationals relying on china for growth, that's going to be hard, to the point about what karen is saying politically, i don't think you want to be there, i don't think that's the exposure you wan. you look at the xfi, you look at the names, primarily focused

there, especially on the internet newspapers and if you think what xi has already done to these names and the people that run these companies, probably most of the worst is over in my opinion, and if you do have a chinese economy that does bounce at some point, if covid does go away, those stocks are going to benefit the most. you talk about that correlation to something like arc. i would rather be in an fxi where 40% of the weight of it are five domestically focused internet names that have the potential just to rip without the idiosyncratic risk that one goes to zero. >> as we enter the thick of earnings season, to get to the 7% of s&p 500 earnings that comes from china or the china region, how should we think about those and for certain companies, does that percentage go to half does it go to zero because it depends on what sector you're in fanned there's a chinese local company competing with that u.s. company, there might be favoritism towards the chinese company and so it might even be more difficult for that u.s. company. i don't know how to -- i'm throwing this out there because

these are things we're all grappling with as we're learning about these changes here. >> you wonder -- listen, i thought for a while that apple has to have a giant bull's eye on their collective back given everything that we've been talking about for the last ten minutes. that clearly hasn't come to fruition but you wonder now that his power has been galvanized for the next five years if not longer, at some point does apple come into play not yet and we'll see what happens with their earnings but certainly something to talk about it we mention all the time fanned tim were here he'd say the same thing, starbucks, nike to a certain extent i mean, all these companies seemingly have the crosshairs on them again, i'll say this and it's important. what we're talking about at the top are trading opportunities. i mean, we've said for years now effectively it's very hard to invest in china but the trading opportunities around these individual names have been fantastic. >> well, i think we talked about this a lot, starbucks and nike, so they used to have a growth multiple embedded in them for china, right >> premium. >> exactly. >> so there was the premium into and then obviously covid happened and then it was okay,

well for now everything is terrible but will reopen that's -- that's not quite the way it is actually so there's that, and so now it should have a discount i think that china exposure should have a discount i agree with you i'm nervous for apple. i mean, if you think of an iconic brand that really, if you want to send a message to the united states, right, that we mean business now, there is no better target than apple i'mer in sbrous that one. >> well, let's bring in economist steven roach, former chairman of morgan stanley asia an author of new soon-to-be released book "america and china ant clash of nations." always great to speak to you i don't want to make you opine on a specific company, and in thinking about what's going on in china and thinking about what's going to be, do you think a company like an apple should be worried, should gig iconic u.s. companies be afraid for their businesses in china for,

you know, retaliation reasons or covid lockdown reasons, all of these different things that we've been talking about >> retaliation is certainly worth thinking about, melissa, especially since the biden administration a couple weeks ago announces these extraordinarily draconian measures against u.s. exports going to boost chinese technology china has retaliated tit for tat on virtually everything that we've done since 2018, and, you know, i wouldn't rule out significant retaliation from this, but, you know, i -- i just want to add one thing, to you know, the insights that you and your group are offering along with eunice. i want you just to think about one name, not xi jinping but a gentleman by the name of wong hunining he was reappointed as one of the

top seven standing committee members of the politburo why do i focus on him? he's the guy that created the ideological thrust of xi jinping thought, the chinese dream, and he's written the book on china's view of a declining america which has urge the chinese leadership to embrace the notion of conflict with the united states he's 67 years old. he was rumored to be retiring. he didn't retire he was elevated. he's most likely to become either the chairman of the national people's congress or the chairman of the consultive political group in china he's a big deal in terms of driving what xi jinping is all about. he's the guy behind the scenes who has given the u.s. so many problems, and he was just

promoted and very few people are focusing on that right now. >> mr. roach, you know, one of the things i've said, and i've been concerned about, as americans we look at things through our lens, right, but we're also a much different place and if your opponent is willing to lose battles to win wars and don't have a five-minute timeline but a 50-year timeline, that's a very difficult opponent to beat that is -- that is the chinese can you speak to that because i think everything we've been seeing over the last couple of years speaks to exactly to that, willing to lose battles but playing the long game. >> yeah. their concept and strategy is very, very different their perspective is different xi jinping has laid out objectives to hit great power status by 2049 which would be the 100th anniversary of the founding of the prc, and, you know, they have taken a lot of strategic actions in terms of their military, the power

consolidation politically and the shift back to state control to help implement that strategy, so, you know, we think very myopically we do things short term, and it's a real disconnect in terms of us against them when these two different strategic perspectives. >> how should u.s. companies think about retaliation, or how should the united states think about retaliation in general could it be using the zero covid policy to enact pain parts of guangzhou right now are shut down and that could really cause a problem because that's the factory center of china, or should it be measures like the u.s. taking when it comes to chips, where it's a more formalized sort of act by china? >> melissa, we fired a big shot here. >> yeah. >> and this was, you can argue, you know, an initiative that we

took, and so the next move here is not retaliation from us but retaliation from china, and i think we need to take those risks very, very seriously, and i don't think china is going to do anything deliberately to hurt its own system it will take actions it will be directed at the united states. it could be, you know, anything from, you know, rare earth which we need for a lot of our own products here to a number of other actions that we are vulnerable in, but, you know, i would -- they have obviously had their hands full in dealing with this congress over the past week, and we have yet to fully see what they are going to do in response, but make no mistake. they are going to definitely do something in response to these export sanctions on -- aimed at strangling their advanced technologies

>> mr. richard, karen, thanks for being on you talked about this big shot across the bow the biden administration made. do you think they did the right thing? >> well, that's -- that's a tough question, karen. these are draconian measures, and for them to have done what they did, you have to presume that they have deep intelligence that china is utilizing this technology not just for aggressive military actions such as building supersonic missiles but also to undermine american technology which we view as being emblematic of our future, the prosperity of our nation i would have to say that the evidence there is a lot sketchier than washington leads you to believe, so we've gone

very far over the bow here on this one and let's just hope that we have the evidence to validate these, as because these are extraordinarily tough measures aimed at truly strappingling chinese technology. >> how do you or if you were at markan stanley still, stich, and you were advising a company whose time frame is five years which is how long xi has solidified his power, you know, his term, how should a company view the growth trajectory over the next five years? >> well, look, i think, you know, china will grow, melissa, but i think, you know, if we're talking about, you know, companies assessing their risks of china exposure, they better be working pretty hard on plan "b" here because no one knows, again, how china is going to

play these types of actions and ayou'll that it's doing blow over now that the party congress is behind us and we'll go back to however it used to be whenever that was, i think that's being a little too blaise about potential risk we're in a serious conflict n.five years we've gone to a trade war to full-blown tech war an early stages of a cold warm i wrote this book called "accidental conflict." when you're on the path of a conflict escalation it doesn't take much of a spark to turn it into something far worse plenty of sparks back and think pack what happened back in the taiwan straights in early august we're at a point of danger and economy jinping, you know, filled with power and with his buddy juan hunin still poised to

seize the opportunity to take on what they strongly believe is a declining america. the rest of the conflict cannot be dismissed. >> thank you so much for joining us do appreciate it. >> thanks, guys. always great to get his perspective. steven roach of yale better get a plan "b" in order starbucks will have a plan "b" and nike will, and, you know what, you look through this. >> yeah. i mean, i think the good news here is we didn't necessarily learn anything over the party congress period that we didn't know all right, right, so i think these companies, the starbucks and apples with exposure and gloat plans there, there is -- it isn't like wow, all of a sudden the landscape has shifted so it's shifted just what they know and that's the last thing and where there might be tune heading into an economic

opportunity but the -- some of these things make these companies very agraktive at a period of the economic cycle where they might not be so. >> we started a trade war years ago and that was start of the inflationary pressures, reshoring jobs and if wage inflation is one of the stickiest parts, a company like a s&l very different than a company like starbucks in china who rely on chinese citizens for manufacturing, cheap manufacturing so they are already thinking about what other places in asia or in the western hemisphere where they can do that. that's just expensive here i just go back to that first week of january in 2019. apple had one of its first negative pre-announcements for a quarter, and i think over ten years, and it was based on china and cheers of a slowdown on china so going back to what guy is talking about, they have done a lot of really good things in a difficult environment managing throughout this entire pandemic,

but i would just be shocked if we get to thursday night and china is not a huge focus from both a manufacturing standpoint and a demand standpoint. >> coming up, dear zuck, what meta needs to do to gets it mojo back and we'll dig into some other names when "fast money" returns.

welcome back to "fast money. a major investor calling for major changes. brad gersner is urging the company to get focused and get fit saying meta has drifted into the land of excess, too many people, too many ideas and too little urgency meta set to report third-quarter earnings on thursday karen, who did you think >> i liked seeing it i agree with almost everything in there it's sort of interesting to me i assume those two really do know each other, right i guess, i don't know. it's just an assumption and i'm

wondering do they have some back channel talk and mark was like, no, i have no interest in doing any of that and so he felt compelled to put this in a public forum i don't know i was just wondering about that. however, i do think that the logic is very good, that not just meta but many of these companies, it has been growth at all costs and that was the right thing to do, and he cites especially if an era of zero cost dollars why not do that, that makes sense and now growth is slowing and, you know, these are very fat companies. >> yeah. >> not just them, but we're seeing it across the board, seeing it with microsoft and seeing it with alphabet and we're seeing it here i like what he's saying. i mean, i think that this multiple kind of ridiculous and if they can improve their earnings that much seemingly so easily, why not do it. >> i mean, growth at all costs in this environment is not in vogue. >> no. >> investors do not want to see, that and what he wants them to do in part is to cut meth verse spending specifically in half to

$5 billion. >> which is somewhat problematic when the future of your company is based on the metaverse it would appear. >> because nobody knows what it is. >> exactly. >> i'm not trying to be glib and that's why the stock has been more than cut in half since its all-time high and trading at levels, to karen's point, trading 12 and a half times and off by a little bit. trading two and a half times revenue. dan can peek so that valuation is compelling. the problem is it's been compelling to the last 30% of the downside who knows what they are going to say. trading at levels we haven't seen since this time in 2018, and they have done nothing in my opinion to indicate they are changing their tune any time soon. >> i doubt that brad's friendly with him i don't think mark -- >> i just don't think he has friends that like have those sorts of opinions about the things that he's doing a year ago this was only -- almost a $1 trillion market cap company and he decided to change the course based on things he and his team were seeing in a way this stock was probably

going to be cut in half no matter what. if it still has the ticker fb on it and they were still trudging along with instagram and talking about waysto monetize whatsapp i'll say this. i think this stock is probably one gap away that could look like the snap sort of gap where you're going to bet against -- you wouldn't boy that. you'd bet against a company that has a third of the population on the planet and they are trying to figure out how to monetize then in the future to me it seems interesting let everybody get negative and let them guide down one more time. >> wait for that gap. >> yeah. >> and then you just kind of have to buy it, you know. >> a lot more "fast money" to come here's what's coming up next good health, good gains. health care stocks leading the gains in today's rally. so which names are the right medicine for your portfolio? plus, and speaking of the

rally, today was up, up and away for stocks, but is there something broken under the surface? the details ahead. you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we're back right after this. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so... ...glad we did this. [kid plays drums] life is for living. let's partner for all of it. i'm so glad we did this. edward jones

nurse mariyam sabo knows a moment this pure demands a lotion this pure. gold bond pure moisture lotion 24-hour hydration no parabens, dyes, or fragrances gold bond champion your skin ♪♪ the only thing i regret about my life was hiring local talent. if i knew about upwork. i would have hired actually talented people from all over the world. instead of talentless people from all over my house. i remember the day you looked at me and asked, “what now, dad?” so i said, find a job, any job. work hard. that's just how it is. but of course, you didn't listen. you showed me there's another way.

i'm proud of you. ♪ ♪ welcome back to "fast money. health care stocks posting the biggest games. pharma stocks like pfizer, merck and lily all in the green and united health, cigna, humana all higher jeff, you like these moves >> yeah, there's some really interesting setups it's really been that way all year i do think it's interesting. it's not really a rising tide lifts all boats. i look at a name like pfizer,

yes, it was up today but to me it looks like it's rolling over and merck is making new highs. some of the company specific drivers are very important in this market, even for a more defensive space like health care merck, for example, recent good newnews on the phase three cardio vascular drug trial released to one of their latest acquisitions, it diversified them away from keytruda. there's a lot of things going on within a sector that investors are interested in, profitability, margins, cash flow, the type of characteristics that i think you'll continue to want in this market. >> i think the space has been a great place to hide out. i mean, we have reasonable valuations, right, and there is still growth and you have dividends and i think merck, guy, i'd be interested to hear your opinion, gravitationally is heading towards 100 or higher. >> trb has made that point, the reform broker. see how i pause. pretty good. we didn't even rehearse that

dan talks about this all the time, a $93 stock makes its way to 1,100 for whatever reason that sounds dumb because i said it. it happens to be true and now merck is and levels where it will reach triple digits say this very quietly, look at amgen, a new all-time high, a name weave talked about for years, valuations still reasonable, earnings in november 4'd and eli lilly analysts seem to be coming around the fact that elittly is the best big-cap pharma name out there. yes this, space is still investable at this level. >> jim cramer says it all the time there's always a bull market somewhere and we're in a fast i bear market. that thing is the best looking chart i've ever seen >> in your life. >> remember, that was with lisa, had a little thing the worst looking chart ever. >> like lumor. >> retail. >> the triangle of death >> yeah. >> all right coming up, the market is broken. that's the word from jim bianco

who says why and stocks holding up despite the market volatility can you build a foundation with these builder names? stick around o.y"ilbeacinl bk tw ♪ in any business, you ride the line between numbers and people. what's right for the business and what's best for everyone who depends on it.

solving today's challenges while creating future opportunities. it takes balance. cla - cpas, consultants, and wealth advisors. we'll get you there.

welcome back to "fast money. markets getting off to a strong start to the week with all three major indices closing in the green. the dow up 400 point, up 10% from the lows of the month the move comes even as treasury yields climb higher. the two-year yield back above 4.5% today what do we make of this rally, dan? >> well, listen, we've talked about this a little bit, and i think we all agreed about a month ago there's a wheel good chance that the fed whisperer at "the wall street journal" will float some article a week before the fed meeting rp the idea that the fed might pause for their fourth consecutive 75-basis point hike or at least take their foot off the pedal and the comparison that guy has been making very aptly. from the mid-june meeting, the rally that we had into mid-august, what was it predicated on? suddenly got bad as far as the stock market goes and estimates were coming down into q2

earnings when they came out they weren't as bad as expected and we kept on rallying until the realization in august, no, things are not particularly good, is only getting worse and visibility is horrible no matter what the fed does, so to me i think we could be setting up for that. we rallied 18% from the mid-june lows to the mid-august highs we're about 8% higher right now. guy, what to you think, 4100 or something like that? that would be like 15%, 16%? >> vitriol and twitter on the back that have is significant. i'm not -- again, i'm not bullish. from these levels to 4100 and, yes, i guess in the short term that's good but long term none of the problems we've been talking about for a year now have been figured by any stretch but the biggest rallies take place in bear markets and like it or not, we are in a bear market. >> i mean, a 50 instead of a 75 in december. that's not going to solve any of the worries, right, alleviate any of the worries that anybody had. turning now to the big news across the pond. rishi sunak is set to be the next prime minister of the uk

sending guilds rallying and since they have given up the gains. let bring in the president and market strategist at bianco research jim, people may be relieved that an ex-finance guy, and ex-finance secretary is now the prime minister, but the problems that the country faces, the uk, that is, are still there and they are still very deep they are not fixed at all. >> oh, that's right. just because he knows how to use excel and there's twitter feeds of him doing exactly that, doesn't mean that the budget problems are going to be fixed in the uk. they still have a fundamental problem of high inflation, low growth, big bills coming for energy and how they are going to try to sol that have because they promise there had would be a subsidy for all of that energy costs that everyone is going to bear this winter and the mini budget that prime minister from

us put out failed so now we're back to square up. how are you going to fix these problems and we'll see what he comes up. >> yeah. it sounds like, and i don't mean to force a trading cap on you, jim, but any gains that were made off the back of this news or going into this news should be short lived >> i think that that's right also, remember that the uk guilds market, the bank of england has 230 years of data on it the reap i bring that up is what we've seen in the last three or four weeks stands out in 230 years of data. we've not seen this kind of volatility in this mark. today was a quiet day. it fell 30 basis points. any other time that would have been a holy cow kind of moment for this market but now it's just monday is the way it's been going, and that doesn't mean because it fell in yield as opposed to rose 30 basis points that somehow the problem is fix

so the message the market is saying is we're not healthy. we're not getting better yet we still need to see what your budget is going to be. are you going to require a massive amount of borrowing, and that remains to be seen. >> hey, jim, it's jeff mills i wanted to switch gears a little witt and talk about rates here in the u.s. you know, i keep waiting for longer term yields to peak, the gravitational pull and pending recession, long-term rates tend to fall in those environments. do you see that happening this time around and what do you think it will take for the long end to stop rising >> first of all, let nut in context, the long end, 12-year yield is up 12 consecutive weeks. we've got data going back to 1941 this ties the all-time record with 1984 and 1956 the yield rise -- weekly yield rise started in july, late july and the stock market, the s&p is down 11% over the same period. there's been no indication that this yield rise is going to stop

and that's because it's a situation where good news is bad news as we continue to see the fall in the unemployment claims, as we continue to see strong economic newspaper and as we continue to see decent earnings, the bond market keeps concluding, okay, we can go higher and we can go higher and we can go higher, so ultimately i think it's going to take something like some bad economic data, a plunge in the market or something to stop this rise in yields because it's been extraordinary. like i said, july 29th is the last week that we saw yields fall from monday through friday. >> nine-week streak of higher ten-year yields going back in the 1987 crash you don't just lightly, jim, toss in the mention of the 1987 crash in some notes unless you're trying to actually make some kind of point, are you? >> yeah. if you look back, we're in week 12 if you look back at every time the ten-year yield has been up nine consecutive weeks or more

has been a terrible time to own stocks you've lost money in every single one of those except for one in 1979 when you made a little bit of money and a 14% inflation environment so on a real base you still lost money, and that includes the 1987 crash. in other words what, it says is the stock market can't handle rates keep going higher. >> right. >> they either need the fed to pivot and tell dan that the proper term is step down from 75 to 50, now he can be an official fed watcher now that he knows that term and that we need -- you either need that or something else like bad economic data or the stock market to stop this yield rise. otherwise it's just not going to stop. >> right jim, thank you good to see you. jim bianco. >> jeff mills, what are your thoughts about that neat little stat know you like numbers. you like data, but there's a difference in terms of the rise where we were and where we are now versus those other period where we started from a much higher base and went, to you

know, in some cases double digits in terms of interest rates. >> that's true, but i think it's so easy just to try to outsmart ourselves here, and i think we need to keep it very simple. guy alluded to it. nothing has changed that high, inflation is too high, the market is too tight and the fed will keep tightening and the curve is inverted. pmi data in the u.s. that looked horrible, services and manufacturing were in contracting territory. sunil a downtrend of the s&p 500, less than a quarter of the s&p 500 stocks are in their moving day averages. none of the critical elements have changed keep it simple, and that's going to be the driving force here. >> all right come home heam sweet surprise. home building stocks doing something special the last couple of months what the general has to say about the group next. and microsoft gearing up to report after the bell tomorrow will this one excel when result

gross? the outlook on that one ahead. very clever. don't miss the cnbc online work summit a big two-day event bringing together top names in business, policybainan, nkg d more "fast money" is back in true [watch: heart monitor connected.] technology makes it easy to connect to everything from your wrist. [watch: speakers connected.] but to connect to all your clouds, you need more than technology. [watch: 50 feet to pin.] well that's not fair. you need cdw to implement vmware cross cloud services. a portfolio of multicloud solutions. it'll simplify workflows, speed innovation,

and secure all of your applications. how did you get here?! [watch: the backdoor is open.] vmware makes connected multicloud possible. cdw makes it powerful. power e*trade's easy-to-use tools like dynamic charting and risk-reward analysis help make trading feel effortless and its customizable scans with social sentiment help you find and unlock opportunities in the market with powerful, easy-to-use tools

power e*trade makes complex trading easier react to fast-moving markets with dynamic charting and a futures ladder that lets you place, flatten, or reverse orders so you won't miss an opportunity here, is cvs health. here, we'll never be told our concerns are all in our head. here, we don't think we should pay more than men for the same thing. or pay taxes for period products. here, we can ask tough questions, day... ...or night. and here, we're actually heard. and because of that, we can focus on getting healthier... together. together. together. here, healthier happens together. cvs health.

are. welcome back to "fast money. it's been a rough ride for the home builders, but you may be surprised to find out that the sector has been quietly beating the s&p over the past six months, and the sector might not be done. jeff, you've been watching this one. >> yeah. i took a look today, and obvious obviously it's really hard to pound the table on home builders given the setup for housing seems so tash. it is really interesting you go back to the relative lows in april for home builders, and like you said, they are outperformed by about 8%, and during that time you've had rates, looking at the ten-year to 2.6 to where we ended at 4.25 or so so you would think that would be a unusual circumstance to see the move in rates and home builders outperform we've talked about this in the past but you have valuations that are very depressed and the history that home builders do the bulk of their underperforming prior to actual recession periods and even going back to 2008 i think we had a

chart on this. they marginally outperformed or at least were flat to the s&p 500 during the actual recession in 2008, so, again, hard to pound the table on it, but very interesting price action in the face of moves in the bond market that you might think would be very difficult for home builders so certainly worth thinking about here as i think we're approaching potentially an actual economic recession. >> i would agree with that i mean, these stocks, dhis trading sideways for a while, another leg lower. by the way, mel, just dawned on me as i'm sitting here looking at the very handsome jeff mills, in the summer of 1983 tom cruise was in a movie called "risky business" and played joel goodson. please put that single shot of jeff mills, that's the foyer that tom cruise sang the song in his tighty whities, that's the same shot. i encourage jeff mills to re-enact that after the show. >> maybe he does that all the time, maybe it's a regular thing

in the mills household you never know. >> i wasn't even born in 1983. >> oh, nice dig. >> wow there's nowhere to go from there. >> you know i'm right. people on the twitterverse will know i'm telling you that's it. i can see tom who hapsz to be a fan of "fast money," by the way, watching this right now saying holy bleep, that's the foyer i danced across in the movie. >> i'm sure he is. >> we'll let you mow if he does. big tech on deck a huge week ahead. what's still to come more "fast money" in two stick harn a. ro u. nd

♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ be ready for any market with a liquid etf. get in and out with dia. what if you were a trendy apparel company facing an avalanche of demand? to ensure more customers can buy more sherpa-lined jackets, you call ibm to automate your it infrastructure with ai . now your systems monitor themselves. what used to take hours takes minutes. and you have an ecommerce platform designed to handle sudden spikes in overall demand... as in actual overalls. ♪♪

pst. girl. you can do better. at least with your big-name wireless carrier. with xfinity mobile you can get unlimited for $30 per month on the nation's most reliable 5g network. they can even save you hundreds a year on your wireless bill over t-mobile, at&t, and verizon. wow. i can do better! yes you can! i can do better, too! see how easy it is to save hundreds a year on your wireless bill over t-mobile, verizon, and at&t. talk to our switch squad at your local xfinity store today. as a business owner, your bottom line is always top of mind. so start saving by switching to the mobile service designed for small business: comcast business mobile.

flexible data plans mean you can get unlimited data or pay by the gig. all on the most reliable 5g network. with no line activation fees or term contracts. saving you up to $500 a year. and it's only available to comcast business internet customers. so boost your bottom line by switching today. comcast business. powering possibilities. ™ welcome back to "fast money. huge slate of tech earnings. alphabet, microsoft, meta and amazon one of those is seeing a lot of bullish options activity mike khoe has the details. >> microsoft options right now applying a move of about 5.4% by the end of the week. that's higher than the 3.9% that the company has averaged over the last eight reported quarters bullish bets edged out bearish bets today the most active options were the weekly 250 calls so over 11,000 of those trading for $4.34 a contract

buyers of those calls are obviously betting that the stock is going to rally through that 250 strike price betting that the results of earnings are probably going to be to the positive side. also saw a lot of activity in the 260 strike calls and it 45s as well. >> dan, what do you think about microsoft's earnings >> interesting we've been talking about the currency effect that microsoft has for a very long time we've been waiting for them to kind of signal any sort of weakness as far as enterprise. i don't think currency going to be the thing that this stock trades on after this it's really going to be what they have to say about cloud growth is it still desell rate the way it did last quarter and when are all of the technology job cuts, how do they affect their sales or the licenses of the seats that they sell on a recurring basis. to me that's going to be the story there. >> if you think there's going to be a recession, higher unemployment how many more licenses do you need >> that's exactly right. last quarter if you remember, and i know you do, microsoft in the report was trading 256 and reported earnings down to 242 and made comments about not seeing demand and next thing we

know, two and a half, three weeks later a 293 stock. setup is similar here. i'm actually inclined to take the other side of those calls that might just talked about 5:30 friday, love it. >> mike, thank you we'll see you on friday which is the full show, 5:30 p.m. "oh averages "coming up final trade. good luck. td ameritrade, this is anna. hi anna, this position is all over the place, help! hey professor, subscriptions are down but that's only an estimated 15% of their valuation. do you think the market is overreacting? how'd you know that? the company profile tool, in thinkorswim®. yes, i love you!! please ignore that. td ameritrade. award-winning customer service that has your back. at fidelity, your dedicated advisor

will help you create a comprehensive wealth plan for your full financial picture. with the right balance of risk and reward. so you can enjoy more of...this. this is the planning effect. ♪♪ i was having relationship issues with my old bank. it was just take, take, take. so i moved to sofi checking and savings. get 2.50% interest, and earn up to $250 when you set up direct deposit. ♪ ♪

wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here! what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations, like real time cgi. okay... yeah... oh. don't worry i got it! become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq

. time for the final trade let's go around the horn jeff mills. >> i'm going to go back to health care and back to merck. it's a great chart and i still think the valuation is really reasonable after the new all-time high. a good stock for this market. >> karen. >> interesting on the heels of merck which i do like and own. i own some lilly but i think the trade is now to sell some upside calls in november 360. the stock has gone hyperbolic, parabolic, i guess both, sell some upside calls. >> dan >> yeah. chinese stocks i think we're going to look back

in a couple of months and think this was a capitulation at least near term. >> guy >> wonderful to have you back. >> great to be back. >> seriously you are our sergeant hulk as we mentioned a couple of times. amgen, me ls. >> all right thanks for my mission is simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer, welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends, i'm trying to help you make money my job is not just to entertain but teach you. call me or tweet me @jimcramer i am sick and tired of