>> every time it gets out of bed, someone throws the china thing at it. it's not a china stock >> shake hack reports november 3rd. this is one of those stocks that did not make a new low in september moreau the june low. i'm looking for those names. i think the business is on fire. and i think some of the wage pressures and food price pressures will start coming off it >> see everybody in a few hours. "the exchange" begins right now. and welcome to "the exchange," everybody i am brian sullivan and these markets, they just keep rallying on stocks higher is it about the fed? is it about something else or is this just another short-term heartbreaker bear market rally we'll find out plus, another bizarre energy turn, as natural gas prices in parts of texas went near or at zero today and we've got an epic traffic jam of chips off europe. we'll explain how and why in both stories and it's time for tech

heavyweights to report their numbers. google and microsoft due out after the bell what should you expect we'll dig in there is so much ahead, but we begin at the beginning that is a check on the markets we talked about a rally and certainly that is indeed what we have, stocks extending not only yesterday's games, but the last couple of weeks, the dow, by the way, and we don't want to jinx it, but the dow is on pace to post its largely monthly gain since november of 2020 basically, the biggest monthly gain in two years. the s&p 500 and the nasdaq are on track for their first up month since july it was a terrible july, october, september. now october surprise, i can touch it and will do stuff that's a good market all right, yields, by the way, pulling back a bit today on the back of the soft housing data. i suppose i should get that clear. there we go. i'm not dom chu, but i'm trying. the ten-year yield right now, that is at 4.09% it's come down just a little

bit. the two-year as well by the way, $42 billion worth of two-year notes they're being auctioned off right now. we're going to get those results for you in a few more minutes. let's check on what is moving. the semiconductor stocks as you might imagine, semiconductor stocks doing well, nvidia and advanced micro are both up more than 4% right now home builders are also on the move pulte homes missing on the top and bottom lines, but margins, that held up better than expected, despite many of the head headwinds. in fact, pulte, now hovnanian, if you go back a ways in the market, hovnanian is one of these stocks, heavily traded, can often be heavily shorted you've got to wonder, is there some short covering of hovnanian? the stock is up 12%. over in the payment space, check out paypal that stock finally getting a nice bump in what's been a terrible year.

it follows the news that amazon will begin offering paypal's venmo as a payment option for orders that news will get you a 6% spike in paypal, but overall, if you put up a longer-term chart of paypal, it has been a very, very rough year. all right. so let's broaden it out a bit and talk macro markets because there has been a nice little bout of bullishness with stocks lately. we were well up off our lows from september the question is why? is it earnings is it thinking about fed -- the fed stopping rate hikes? is it something else let us dive in with what your first guest calls the developing dovish dissenters and bring in barry nap, developing partner and director of research at ironside's macro economics very good to have you on we're headed for our best month in two years for the dow a lot of people don't look at the dow, but the general public does we'll say, to what do you

ascribe of this recent run of, is it seasonal is it the fed? is it something else >> it's almost exclusively a function of the fed and expectations that they're going to slow the pace of rate hikes, for sure, i think earnings season is progressing well, and i've been in the camp all along that when we have inflationary recessions, where real gdp growth contracts, but nominal continues to expand, like 1970, '73, '75, '80, '81, or '82, earnings downside is much smaller than it would be in a credit-type crunch, like the great recession or even '90 when the commercial real estate market collapsed but this is really about the fed. and it began with instability that began after the last fmoc meeting. the bank of japan intervened to the tune of $21 billion, the subsequent morning we've seen extreme weakness in europe and listen, this is something i think you could appreciate in particular, brian,

with all your great work on energy, the dollar has become a petro currency for almost five decades, when energy prices were strong and there were shortages in energy prices, the dollar went down that happened in the '70s and in the oos, whereas in the other decades, when energy was more abundant, the dollar was strong. that's no longer the case. so we're actually making this situation much worse in europe, much worse in japan, the situation being the energy crisis, by tightening as aggressively as we are and lael brainerd was the first one to pick up on this she's the start of the dovish developing dissenters and it's now translated out to daly, evans, george for other reasons, but there's a constituent i that wants to slow the space. >> listen, there was a great note out by data trek research i made it my rbi on webcast tomorrow morning which is, this is one of the most volatile periods in the last 20 careers for the stock

market in terms of more than 1% moves over a given number of days we had a great early spring rally. then summer was absolutely terrible now we're rallying again it's been highly volatile. and what their point was there, nick colas and them doing some great work is that that will not stop until the fed stops sounds like you will agree with that and i'm so sick of talking about the fed, barry, every day, right? but, we have to. >> when you look at the correlation across asset classes, walking every morning and look at what the dollar is doing, if it's up, so are bond yields stocks are down, commodities are down that correlation is so intense and it's all because of the fed. and it's the -- how the fed impacts monetary policy around the rest of the world. so, you know, there's been -- this hasn't been about inflation for a number of months we saw inflation break-evens, expectations of inflation

collapse in september. it's been about the fed's reaction function to september so the markets have been screaming, particularly the belly of treasury curves globally that it's time for the fed to start taking a look around and easing back >> but barry, you mentioned europe there's this weird narrative going around that everything is fine in europe, because the storage tanks are full and the weather has been great it's like, fearmongering and now everything is fine no, it's not this year -- this year is not the problem. next year is the problem and i only bring this up as related to the market discussion, because, you know, the g-7 will get together and they'll sit and have a nice photo op and drink some champagne and do whatever they do and they act like they're aligned, but i just wonder, look at the uk, look at the eu, i wonder if we'll start to see a spl

splintering of central banks and their policy responses and how much that could throw some of the financial marks into turmoil. yes or no? >> absolutely. you know, and listen, i think -- you made great point about it being a spot market, and, you know, there's abundant storage right now. we see it in the permian as well it will tighten this winter. you nailed that piece of it. furthermore, listen, i think the real fallout from the collapse of the truss government will be the role of the bank of dpengla. we'll have the political heat really intensifies it's happening on november 9th the day after the midterms, the pressure will really build on the fed. it will be a wholly different environment. the first story i saw in my bloomberg this morning was about how much money central banks are losing on their bond portfolios. >> i read that, too. this is going to -- this whole issue will intensify the fed's role in what they're doing to the rest of the world, just consider japan. they interviewed to the tune of

$50 billion and have nothing to show for it. this is a growing global issue lael brainerd is the person who's most focused on that, and that just comes back to my whole original point that the fed knows that they're creating global instability and need to slow the process >> and we never even got into the idea that maybe lael brainerd could become the actual chairman of the federal reserve at some point, because me thinks this administration might be a fall person at some point in time we'll let you get back to skiing strap them on! >> a foot of snow in the last two days, bri. >> i'm booing trips now. if you're on the radio, he's got a ski resort picture, one of those fake backgrounds behind him. two-year neat notes are up auction. let's get the grade with professor santelli at the cme. >> brian, i don't know that we -- maybe we should have advertised more about the two-year auction, because it

didn't go very well. we had $42 billion two-year notes. the yield, 4.46. the problem within one issue the market was trading around 444.5. so it tailed tailed is never good you want yields to be better, higher than the price -- you don't want yields to be higher, you want yields to be lower. because the government is selling the paper. lower yields are better. they're selling at higher prices the fact that this when issued was lower is not a good thing. and if we go there all the internals, there was only one internal that was strong and hopefully is kelly is watching somewhere, sully, because it was one of her favorites, direct bidders, foreigners are indirect bidders and that was the weakest since november of last year, direct bidders, like pensioners, in this country, large institutions, at 25.3% was very

juicy. that was basically the only good metric here. 24.2 on dealers, we've talked about this in several auctions, sully, that was the most dealers had to take since november of 2021 you want dealers to take less. so this auction was definitely a bust i gave it a "d" as in dog, and i think i was being generous there. so followed by 7s to the tune of $35 billion to complete the trifecta of issuance and i want to point out that even though we are in qt mode, meaning we're tightening, we're not buying back from the fed isn't buying anymore, but janet yellen, the treasury secretary just floated a news story today that she's thinking about instituting treasury buybacks, because the long end has liquidity issues and will have to stay on top of that story and some weird, perverse way, it kind of reminds me about the travails of the bank of dpengla,

a week ago back to you. >> some of this stuff, you can't make up. i don't know what else to say about it do this, do that, it's bizarre, let's hope it's not the bank of england here we're a lot bigger than the bank of england rick santelli, thank you very much 24% to dealers that is not good meantime, consumer confidence not great, either, taking a hit in october. inflation picking up again, particularly in food and gasoline prices. but if you're watching if california, i don't need to tell you that the conference boards, consumer confidence index fell to 102.5 that is more than expected, and back to the lowest level since july in the meantime, the expectations index slid again, suggesting that recession risks are rising more on the data with steve ofland, president and ceo of the conference board and a cnbc contributor. to what, steve, can we read from this data? >> yeah, well, as you said, there are two components to the consumer confidence index. one is how consumers are feeling

right now about their situation and the other component is how they think things will play out over the next six months it's the present situation index component that fell. so, people are feeling worse this month than they did over the past couple of months about their situation. it ties directly to how they're feeling about their job security and how they're feeling about inflation. now, food inflation is a big piece of it, but that's been pretty consonant at double-digit rates. it's the gas prices that have been fluctuating over this period of time and now consumers are starting to feel a little bit itchy about their job situation, as they're predicting that we're going into a recession here so they'll feeling nervous you don't want nervous consumers to be going into the holiday season, because this is the biggest component of retail sales for the year, and as we all know, this is a, the biggest component of our gdp so they're not feeling great the interesting thing here, brian, is that it's all gas prices that have created this

bouncing of the consumer confidence it is almost directly correlated with that. you start then correlating that component with the generic polls out there, as we go into midterms here and they're correlated, as well. you see this correlation and how people are feeling, and how they are expecting to -- the election to play out. >> or how the elections may play out because of how they're feeling. and maybe that's why there's been so much attention on the spr releases, sort of odd timing, they say that's what it's used for. we can debate that all day long. here's the thing i've learned about the consumer in 25 years, steve. probably the same as you what they say and what they do are often different. there are still trillions in excess c'estings money saved during the pandemic. stimulus, ppp, wherever the money is from, people have a lot of money still saved up. everywhere i go still seems to be incredibly crowded. >> yeah. and you're going to all the expensive places, brian.

and that's pretty consistent the high end, the higher earners are feeling great. consumer confidence is strong, hasn't changed at all. it's the low end where you have a bigger component of their discretionary spending going out to food and gas and those kinds of things. so i think you see a direct correlation, you know, based on all of that. you're right, the question is, how are they going to act? and that isn't always the same and it could change. if gas prices are able the come down, supply increases, you know, whatever happens here, this flips on a dime and consumers are very reactive to this thing. so, you know, it could just be fine, but, you know, retailers here are stocked up and they're a little nervous, brian, because if you're going into a season, you have all of your inventory and fit doesn't sell, you'll have to start clearing it very early and your margins are going to get hit >> that's fair you and i need to hang out i think you might be surprised at some of the places i end in northern wisconsin in the upper peninsula of michigan. that's a whole different story,

steve. that's off the record. what is the biggest risk to the consumer is it continued inflation or is it the job market, because the job market has been red hot, you can name your price, that appears to be rolling over right qu quick. >> the interesting thing is, most recessions are accompanied by huge job losses, so there's a lot of pain. that is an interesting one, because we're still sitting with 10 to 11 million open position now, as a ceo, what you do is you try to batten down the hatches going into a recession, you stop hiring, you at least freeze things if you don't actually take action so there are a lot of job openings that can be cut before you start cutting into jobs that are occupied by people so it could be a very odd recession where it's relatively shallow, it's fed-induced, but off job full of recession, which means the consumer pain isn't quite as much from a jobs standpoint, but then it depends on what happens with the

inflation component of consumer spending >> and you do wonder also about wage inflation, how sticky that is, because how much are you going to pay somebody to do something and if you keep them onboard, you're going to have to compensate for their pay with what you charge. there's this whole camp of people out there saying, you can't find people, just pay them more to those people i say, open a pizzeria, pay people $50 an hour, you'll have to charge $100 per pizza. see how well that goes >> it doesn't go well. and in our wage survey, what it's saying is that ceos expect to raise wages by 3 to 5%, on average, 4%, but that happens in the march kind of time period. a lot of stuff can happen between now and then if things are dropping, if things are starting to look a little itchy, that could come way down as well and that's a big component of inflation as well, as you know. >> all right

good discussion. steve otland thank you very much, of the conference board, steve, appreciate it we are just getting started here on "the exchange. on deck, are there parts of the real estate market that could actually win ultimately in a rising rate environment? your guest says why and who. plus, after the bell, will microsoft's numbers excel? at humana we believe your healthcare should evolve with you and part of that evolution means choosing the right medicare plan for you. humana can help. with original medicare you are covered for hospital stays and doctor office visits but you'll have to pay a deductible for each. a medicare supplement plan can cover your deductibles and coinsurance but you may pay

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welcome back a low-yield environment, real estate investment trusts typically offer attractive returns. but with treasury yields near 15-year highs, they have fallen out of favor with many investors. for example, schwab's reit etf has fallen about 30% next year all of that despite a tough run for some of the names since the first fed rate hike back in march. let's find out where things are going and bring in brian jones i don't know if there's any segment, brian, more rate sensitive in the market than yours. do you feel like all the sort of rate pain has been done?

>> yes, well, thank you for having me today. and, yes, i think that a lot of the rate pain has been priced into reit securities our benchmark is down about 30% year-to-date and we see reits trading at about 25% below our view of net asset volume, which is the intrinsic value of the real estate a reit owns. so even if you get some further declines in commercial real estate prices, a lot of that pain is already reflected in reit valuations and we see a lot of attractive opportunities to add names at attractive yields, names with resilient cash flows and names that we think will grow in the coming years >> so we're looking at like an american tower i don't know much about the cell

phone tower business, other than i don't think cell phones are going away anytime soon. if anything, we'll build more and more for 5g, 6g, 42g, whatever it turns out. so it sounds like what you're saying is that american tower and other names like it just got literally flushed, almost panic selling, below to your point, some intrinsic real estate value. >> yes reits have been closely tied this year to changes in interest rates. and some of that makes sense, because if the costto borrow has gone from 3% to 6% in the course of a year, that's going to have an impact on how much investors can pay for real estate assets. but what we think has been over looked is companies with resilient cash flows either in a slowing or negative growth economy, companies with balance sheets that are well positioned to endure a change in interest

rate environment, and a company like american tower, the demand is driven by the rollout of 5g technologies, by the cellular service providers and we don't think that those trends will change even if there is a recession. we will continue to use our cell phones, even if economic growth slows, and the service providers really need to improve their services they've bid billions of dollars for spectrum to roll out 5g, and we expect that those capex dollars will really benefit american tower and other cell tower reits. >> i saw a survey, i think it was bank of america that people would sell their cell phone bill before their mortgage. they won't cut anything else appreciate you coming on

have a great day >> all right >> take care coming up, another crazy energy story as natural gas prices just hit near 0 in parts of texas ignore the screen. we'll tell y wt'ouhas happening in the permian, next a kohler home generator never misses a beat. it automatically powers your entire home in seconds. and keeps your family connected. with a heavy duty commercial grade engine and no refueling, even when the power goes out, life rocks on. right now get a free 10-year extended warranty and up to $750 off. the hiring process used to be the death of me. but with upwork... with upwork the hiring process is fast and flexible. behold... all that talent! ♪ this is how we work now ♪

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welcome back despite being up a little bit today, overall, natural gas has been crushed lately. it's down nearly 40% in just 90 days and check this out today, some natural gas and parts of the permian basin of texas traded theory or even at zero because a bunch of pipelines are down for maintenance, some storage tanks are full

and by the way, speaking of full tanks, we have to talk about what's happening in europe, because there is beginning an epic traffic jam of natural gas ships sitting off the coast of spain, france, the netherlands and otherwise and it may not all be good news laurie ann la rocca joining us to talk about. you and i are probably the only people in this company that email back and forth with map positions. >> we've got 10% of the lng vessels that are parked out there. and the reason why is because there's not enough capacity for europe to receive these vessels. and as a result, it's impacted the price of nat gas, which mean it's going down. and on the inverse, it's taken 10% of these vessels out of service, which is droiving up te price of the tankers it's unprecedented >> well, i know a guy. one person at this table has been in europe a lot talking about this shall people say, oh, you're fearmongering, they're going to run out of gas i've said many times, and i want

to be very clear, it's all about the weather. the weather drive demand and it's perfect it goes to show that europe has an infrastructure issue. they want to get off natural gas, they better build a lot more ports for all of those ships. >> exactly they need regasification equipment. it's like a big spigot you've got this big volume of product coming into a teeny, tiny little space. and that's the problem that we're saying >> we've gone from not enough energy now to too much energy. i can't keep -- literally, it might drive somebody to drink schnapps or something like that, lori ann it's like an inch worm effect. all of these ships sitting there waiting. is that going to create problems with shipping costs down the road if all the ships are over here and i'm i need a ship over

there, what's going to happen? >> you've got 10% literally knocked right out of there it's already increased a price from $100,000 a day to now $500,000 a day to have one of these vefssels. >> $100,000 to $500,000? z z >> yeah. it's $500,000 a day now. >> from 100? >> yeah. >> who's winning on this golar? >> yeah. >> these are companies that would benefit from that? >> most definitely scorpio tankers. there's a whole ton of them out there that investors really need to kind of bone up on to see, whereas the trade. and the other thing is, it takes time for these vessels to get there. it takes sometimes from 17 to 40 days for these vessels to go one way. and so that adds to the further constriction in terms of the capacity >> listen, it's good -- this is a good news story overall, lower prices, more energy, but by no means is the story over.

lori ann larocco, fascinating stuff. appreciate it. now to bertha coombs for a cnbc news update >> here's what's happening in this hour, in the west bank, israeli forces say they raided a palestinian bomb lab and exchanged fire with militants. palestinian authorities say five people were killed and 20 were injured. thousands of people mourned the dead in a funeral procession through the city ukrainian energy sofficials say that russia is probably preparing an attack at the zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. this is as russian officials continue to accuse ukrainian forces of preparing to use a so-called dirty bomb the ukrainian officials say an explosion at the nuclear plant could spread radioactive contamination across hundreds of square miles on the news, shep this evening will unpack the competing nuclear accusations and what they mean for the war in ukraine. that's tonight at 7:00 eastern

and serena williams says that she is not retired. the tennis legend says the chances of her returning to play are quote, very high before this summer's u.s. open, williams said that she was stepping away from tennis, but did not specifically say it would be her farewell tournament forever. we've seen this before, haven't we brian people say, walking away, walking away >> well, brady never said it it was reported, but incorrectly. bertha, thank you very much. appreciate it. still ahead. three big names, three reports that could tell us a lot about the economy and the markets. stick around what if you were a global energy company? with operations in scotland, technologists in india, and customers all on different systems. you need to pull it together. so you call in ibm and red hat to create an open hybrid cloud platform. now data is available anywhere, securely.

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dangerous.itedhealthcare today about an aarp medicare maybe the only way he can die... is if i die too. [ screaming ] it is safe to say, it's a monster week for earnings. we have a number of tech titans reporting. we have the action, the story and the trade. stock number one, alphabet, aka, google a company looking to prove it can withstand an outspend in trading. deirdre bosa with the story on alphabet and tim seymore has the

trade. cnbc contributor deirdre, what are we looking for tonight? >> well, alphabet is seen as a lot more resilient than its social media peers like meta and snap because it derives most of its digital advertising revenue from search ads, which typically hold up better in an ad spending slowdown it's also a lot more diversified. it's got a cloud business, which is still unprofitable. it's also got its other bets, which actually investors should look closely as this, because these are also money-losing operations that potentially could be scaled back in a softening economic environment that said, brian, youtube. that's the big one to watch, because it is more vulnerable to those slowdown pressures, the way that those adds work that could be one to watch, certainly, for the company >> everybody is just watching mr. beast and 9-year-old's unwrapped toys tim seymore, google. it's been trading more like yahoo! lately. do you see a turn? >> well, it's not been trading like snap, fortunately and i would say it's been more defensive than other players in

their space. a lot of this is in combination of it's the highest quality platform in my view. even during a recession, advertisers have to spend. i think the ad trends, i think they still solid i think we've priced d in a loto macro in google. remember, there are over 60% comps last quarter they're probably in the low 40s here i think they get into the low 30s next quarter again, snap's problems are not google's i look at the valuation and i look at a company that certainly has a more defensive posture in this environment than some other folks that are as -- the youtube volume, very critical. anythingn north of 5% on revenu and it's a win >> you said debo, i'm thinking, debo samuels -- i think they're from acton stock number two, microsoft hoping to offset a slowing pc market with double-digit growth in its cloud group

deirdre, microsoft what do we expect? >> tim's got it right. >> i said alphabet was diversified, microsoft is even more diversified it's got enterprise, pcs, it's got gaming and advertising with linked in and netflix. and this is really been solid all year the market has sort of hit out names like microsoft and apple so expectations are fairly high. i'm going to be looking really closely at its cloud business. we talked a little bit about this with alphabet you remember that azure is the number two player in this space. it is thought to be more resilient than perhaps the others from amazon and google, because it has more customers, large customers, in the enterprise space so the street is expecting growth of more than 40% this quarter. if that comes in short, that could spell bad news for the stock. >> tim, your take on microsoft >> well, i think if you look at first of all, the stock relative to itself and relative to the market at 23 or 25 times ev to

cash flow next year, it's attractive here. i think the azure revenue numbers are what we're all looking at i think 43% down about 3 percentage points over last quarter is where the street has been guided. and i think that the guide for next quarter is somewhere around 40 i think the expectation is that they come in line. the enterprise trends haven't really changed and i think migration to commercial cloud and what we've been seeing with microsoft's business in cloud doesn't change this quarter and i think, actually, the secular trends there stay very much in tact we've priced many a lot of pc weakness, and i don't think that drives the fx weakness has been well flagged, so fx neutral i think will be where people focus skipping they should >> tim, jr. sticking around. deboss, how about that deirdre bosa, thank you. finally, visa exposed to the consumer like almost no other. here now what we can expect on visa is k. rowe? not just a city in illinois.

>> i've got d.bo to my rate here there's a nick bos on the 49ers and d.b.o. samuels so you mentioned it. they're exposed to the consumer. we had amex, which was a bit of a signal of what we'll get from visa the expectations are pretty strong for the prior quarter, based on what we saw with amex and some of the banks. there are thoughts, yes, obviously, watch what happened in the third quarter big think analysts are watching is fiscal 2023 so visa is on a bit of a different fiscal year. they are going to give guidance for next year. we'll get full-year guidance that is really what the payment a analysts are looking for in terms of the macro outlook and health of the consumer the expectation is because of the strong dollar. they may have to lower guidance and change kind of how their looking at next year, but based on amex, you know, it's the same

things, spending volume, health of the consumer, and cross-border, but we will likely see dollar impact. >> the dollar matters to microsoft, it matters a lot more to visa. >> it does and i guess these are trends we've seen front and center for the last few months. a dollar could be a tailwind i care a lot more about that visa relative to mastercard is defensive again on valuation, at least relative to the market everything's pulled in so relative to itself, maybe is not as important, but relative to the market, i think they're going to be conservative we heard from banks. consumer spending is moving along. it hasn't been an issue. the guide for next year is critical but the question is, are they going to guide of a weaker consumer that they don't see right now? and if you're an investor in this stock, while it's defensive, i do think that's coming but i like where the stock is priced and i like it relative to

mastercard >> easy for you to say tim seymore, appreciate it, my friend thank you very much. k. row again, just like the city in illinois, it's not cairo, it's kate rooney. up next, this staples name down nearly 11% of the past month, but its ceo says the growth is still there. the steps he plans to try to battle inflation who is the mystery chart we'll reveal it, coming up netwo, associated british ports can now precisely orchestrate nearly 600,000 vehicles passing through their uk port every year. don't just connect your business. right on time. make it even smarter. we call this enterprise intelligence. go. go air that runs factory. go sensors and software. go find leaks. go fix-em. emerson technology detects compressed air leaks to save manufacturers, like colgate, over 20% in energy costs. go brush your teeth. go boldly. emerson.

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it is another sign coming up here on "the exchange," we are approaching the ninth month of russia's invasion of ukraine. and some democrats in congress just flipped on their call yesterday to call for direct negotiations with putin. what in the world is going on. we'll talk about it, next. the new iphone 14 pro is amazing. the camera is incredible. and you'll get our best deal. nice, but i can't accept it. unless every business gets the best deal. on every iphone. uh, actually... we already do that. the plumber with the ascot! big bjorn, little bjorn, too! the caterer who really cares. every business should get the deal! we make a good team. every business gets at&t's best deals on every iphone. including up to $800 off iphone 14 pro. (♪ ♪)

welcome back no surprise, defense stocks have had a strong year as the ukraine war enters its ninth month with no sign of ending. the u.s. has sent $17.6 billion in aid directly to ukraine some in congress at least as of yesterday were speaking up house minority leader kevin mccarthy is ready to end what he calls the blank checks to kyiv and yesterday, a group of 30 progressive democrats sent a letter to president biden urging him to negotiate directly with putin. that was yesterday it was a big story about it in "the washington post." i tweeted it out but just in the last hour, those lawmakers said they withdrew the letter joining us now to make sense of

this all is admiral james stavridis. trying tow understand what happened here. 30 members of congress sent a letter to the president saying, we support ukraine, but we need to find a way out of this. wow, that -- that went away quick. >> well, it just wasn't a helpful idea to negotiate directly with vladimir putin putin is not sufficiently weakened, at least, as yet, to be motivated to help with a rationale settlement so i think the lawmakers took the high road here, recognized that they have brooded an idea that was not going to fly. and withdrew it. and by the way, let's keep it in perspective here if you really look at the votes across the political spectrum, ukraine still enjoys strong support from mitch mcconnell on the right to nancy pelosi on the left will the taps be shut off? no will they be dialed back a

little bit with pressure from both sides perhaps a bit. >> and i don't think that the 30 out of 435 was a great percentage but i think the reason "the washington post" did the story on it andit, and people like me retweeted it out, was that it was kind of the first breach at least on that side of the aisle of people saying we need to start looking for a way out. we can agree or disagree on that, but it appears there is some movement because admiral stavridis answer is this: ab september some sort of negotiation, how does this ultimately end does this go on for years? >> i would say not for years i think it will go on for months to come. we'll learn more and turn over a big card in the course of the winter we're going to see how much the european will is reduced by a

cold winter, high energy prices. we'll see your point, how that left and right spectrum looks in the united states, the principal backer along with the europeans. on the russian side of the coin, we'll see how much longer putin can continue to just throw cannon fodder. >> let's call it for what it is. we talked about this before. in some ways when i looked at pictures of the russian soldiers, this is genocide by putin, correct he is sending members of the far eastern parts of russia, these untrained children in many cases who don't want to be there, don't even know what they're doing there. ukrainians are fighting for their homeland they're winning the war, by the way. let's say ukraine forces the troops out, get all the russian troops out of the nation let's hope and pray for that but then what does putin do? does he go back to his dasha and stew on it

i think that's the risk. how does he get an out >> the risk is painting putin into too tight a corner here because he's got 6,000 nuclear weapons. he's got what appears to be very strong control over all the organs of government what we ought to be doing is giving the ukrainians all the tools to continue to weaken putin militarily, maintain a steady flow to the ukrainians. over time we need to encourage the two sides to come to some kind of negotiation and how does it end i think it will look in the end a bit like the korean war with a highly militarized strip between these two nations. security guarantees to ukraine from the west, a very dem minnished vladimir putin but he may still be in control of some portion of ukraine that's up to the ukrainians. >> well, if the house and/or the

senate flips on that first tuesday in november, does this change the game about our funding for ukraine? congressman mccarthy seemed to indicate it would. >> what he said, if you read his words carefully, the days of the blank checks are over. the way i read that is that we're not going to simply receive a shopping list from the ukrainians a certain level of funds they feel they need immediately there's going to be more of a measured approach. i think rather than an on and off switch, we'll dial it back a bit. that will be the subject of very significant conversations between ukraine and the west all of this has to be done in a way that balances the war criminal behavior on the part of the russians that you alluded to correctly a moment ago >> it's a terrible situation for ukraine. we'll see what europe's resolve

is by the way, the group that released the letter said it was an accident that the letter was drafted months ago and was sent out accidentally by one of their staff members without vetting, which is interesting because it mentions some of the russian annexations of ukraine admiral james stavridis, good conversation, thank you very much appreciate it. >> thank you the world hoping for some kind of quick end to that for ukraine certainly. still ahead, boeing seeing a boost over the past month, up 20%. what can we expect of the earnings before the bell tomorrow thkefaortoat cine y cts wchomg up ♪♪ ♪♪

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find out if you could save on your prescriptions, and to get our free decision guide. humana, a more human way to healthcare. welcome back we want to get one more thing before we go, and that is boeing earnings the dow component down more than 28% this year, all ahead of their report which is going to be in the morning. a lot of questions about the

future of the company and its ability to get through supply issues phil lebeau joining us with the key numbers to watch on boeing phil >> brian, they're expected to post a profit when they report their q3 numbers tomorrow morning. not a big profit, seven cents a share. the key thing people will be focused on is the optimism within the commercial playing unit it's not the entire story at boeing these three things have people believing they might be turning the corner in terms of the commercial airplane business first of all, increased commercial orders. we saw that at the farm bureau air show in the third quarter. dreamliner deliveries resuming last quarter and higher 737 production rate, up to 31 per month. lots to discuss with dave calhoun in a cnbc exclusive when we talk with him tomorrow morning on "squawk on the street." we'll talk about where he sees the commercial plane market and what he thinks might happen over the next couple months with the certification, not certification

of the 737 max-10. that is the stretch version. a lot of eyes are focused on what happens over the next couple months with that aircraft >> stretching out the 737 even more >> yes that surprise you? >> going to turn into a 747 if they keep stretching it, phil. >> no. it's not a wide body nope, nope, nope, nope it's just a max stretch version. >> those are the key numbers tomorrow morning the outlook, is airbus are they winning a lot of orders seems like i see a lot of headlines but can't put it together >> airbus is winning generally speaking, these guys as a duopoly have split 50/50. airbus made real inroads when it comes to the wide body market in terms of nailing down big orders in the next several months boeing, there was a time, brian, when they were not doing well in terms of landing future orders

what they did at farm bureau might be an indication that they have momentum building in terms of customers. >> very good i would challenge duopoly. i've been going to wisconsin and been on these 'em brieres as you're ducking to get on the plane. phil lebeau, tomorrow morning, david calhoun, virginia tech hokeys go hokies. that does it for us on "the exchange." i'll join contessa brewer on "power lunch wash" which starts >> on that auspicious note, welcome to "power lunch. i'm scontessa brewer. goldman sachs president and ceo john wall drin joins us. we'll talk about deal making and the big reorganization big tech earnings on