it can happen. >> lower dollar helping? as we inch towards a fed meeting which i can't believe is next week >> one week from today the decision >> we'll see you tomorrow. i look forward to that and to seeing all of you, apple and amazon "fast money" is now. a major miss at meta revenue expected to drop in q4 and losses for the metaverse nearly $10 billion so far this year the stock getting hammered the call about to stop we'll go insigned the numbers. the oil services etf up nearly 40%. what's behind this energizing trade? and later throwing in the towel. one of our traders is saying no mas and hello to the competition, u.p.s inside the switcheroo. i'm melissa lee this is "fast

money. karen finerman, steve grasso, shares plunging to the tune of 13% right now. the social media giant missed on earnings and warned of a weak fourth quarter that big bet on the metaverse not paying off, the stock dropping to its lowest level since 2016 the call just getting started at the top of the hour. straight to julia boorstin >> reporter: that is a smaller drop than analysts expected. earnings missed expectations and the revenue outlook on the lighter end of what analysts were looking for reality lab losses aren't slowing, that's another thing to keep in mind despite concerns about how much meta is sinking into its metaverse building division i spoke to meta outgoing cfo, and he told me currency is a stronger headwind than they expected they are expecting to see macro

head winds factoring into their 2023 budget. he was bullish on reels saying they are pleased with the engagement on reels and they're making progress on making money from reels he also talked about making progress on managing those apple ios operating system changes as they lap a quarter where they had already rolled out, so the comps are easier there he did note the lower head winds from the ios have been offset by the macro head winds everyone is grappling with the head count will be flat from between now through the end of next year. how times have changed, melissa, from when these companies used to be growing so quickly >> yeah. growth at all costs not really in vogue julia, keep us posted on the conference call. the stock down almost 14%. karen, i have to go to you you've been a longtime meta -- >> long suffering. >> it's amazing to think snap

came out and yet here we are, meta down 14%. obviously it was not derisked at all going into this quarter. >> i think if you looked at how it traded when the earnings came out, the earnings themselves and whether they beat a little on monthly users, that was a tiny bit of noise when you have a multiple of, like, 11 or 12. it shouldn't move this much. but what really happened was this idea of the spend and the operating expenses and that's been terribly disappointing. i think the reaction is all due to that. on any reasonable basis of valuation for a company like this, now trading under six times ebitda, it's probably 10, 11 times earnings. we don't know what earnings are going to be, but there is still a gigantic business there. i don't know what the valuation is now on this stream of -- i

mean, the market is putting a bigger and bigger negative valuation on that stream of spend and that altimeter piece was interesting. it's not possible that would have gotten done by september 30 end. i want to hear the call. >> so to your point, i bought it today. i'm a short-term pain holder of it i bought it because i thought it was all derisked i thought it was already in the stock price. >> me, too >> we knew about $10 billion in spend, right all the stuff you just said was even on top of it which is this is an amazing change for me because it was down 61% before they even printed. it's already there what are we looking at it's scary that's my point. does this go down 90%?

the next support is a lot lower than where we're at now. >> on this conference call which is four minutes in at this point, guy, in this environment you want to hear companies battening down the hatches to hear that head count is going to be flat is sweet. but in terms of their spend it's enormous in this environment >> reality for them is their reality labs, an unmitigated disaster just for perspective, operating margins, it was close to 36% for facebook came in this quarter 20.4% which was still lower than the street was expecting. that's a disaster when you have half the planet on up platform which is, if you think about it, that's remarkable. average revenue down in north america, down in u.s. and canada not good there's really nothing to like here except the following, to steve's point, the stock has gotten obliterated

you will get a kacapitulatory wipeout. at the risk of sounding glib, the setup the next couple weeks, couple months in facebook, i think, because we're going to tread along the bottom here, is going to look exactly how netflix looked this spring when it trudged along 185, 190. you could make a compelling case on valuation there will be a shot here you can buy facebook, close your eyes, volume capitulation, stay in it for a couple months and you're going to be rewarded. >> for the netflix metaphor to work, guy, don't we need to have the equivalent of the ad-supported streaming platform? what would that equivalent be for facebook at this point >> stabilization, the ability to show maybe there's light -- right now it's the old saying, they're throwing good money after bad money for a gambling

ana analogy. $10 million is not an insignificant -- by the way, they're also buying back stock at a pretty ridiculous pace which clearly isn't working out all that well either not a lot to like here you have to wonder what they're talking about. they're making a huge bet not only on the future of the firm but think about this quickly, facebook is in 332 etfs. there are people saying thank god i don't own facebook guess again. you probably do. >> how about -- i know you want bond weight, but what happens if you cut the spend and to guy's point with the buyback if you take that extra money and buy back stock at this point you say our stock is on sale >> let's post that question. if what steve said happens, would you think this is a buy here or is it a trap

value trade or value trap? it comes down to the same question every single night for all of these stocks but in particular meta. >> there are a couple of questions. i think that would be more of a value trap the move after hours, after earnings, is an indictment of management they have said they are going to pour money into this to pivot out and say we're going to buy back shares, i think that would spook whatever remaining believers still exist. i think there is a lot to like about this company

$35 billion is a lot to like people are telling you they do not believe in the visionary anymore. the growth isn't there, it's fine you are not seeing that growth that is being siphoned away. you still have a highly profitable business. you are lighting cash on fire and that's why the stock is having the reaction that it has. >> and having no faith in management is just having no faith in mark zuckerberg, right, karen? would you feel better if the company stuck by it or said, you know what, maybe it's time to rethink our priorities >> i think there's another option which is go at half speed. that was the altimeter alternative which i thought was interesting.

i think a lot of people would cheer that and say this is what i've been waiting for. i can buy the more legacy business at a valuation we haven't seen in years. it would be interesting to me if they did do a buy back one, our stock is ridiculously cheap, two we're going to cut back our spend to do it. i'm not optimistic that will happen in the short term but i think we've seen some companies change direction before. i think it's possible. >> ten minutes into the conference call, we'll keep you posted on any developments out of that. the nasdaq dropping sharply at the open climbed its way into positive territory midday and then ran out of steam to close down more than 2%. the s&p almost dropping a percent while the dow managed to eke out the slightest of gains the index is now up four days in a row. the yield on ten-year treasuries continues to fall, dropped below

since march of 2020. bonowyn mentioned this let's bring in sven heinrich, he has a chart he is watching >> it's interesting. we had a summer rally off the hit on the ten-year yield as it dropped down to 2.5% we had slight new lows as this was key support. the 2008 highs, the s&p has maintained a positive structure technically. note the weekry divergence on top which means makes a higher low than the initial low in

june this happens very rarely we saw that in 2015-2016 which produced a sizable bottom. we saw that in 2008. those are very rare. we also saw it before in 2008 where it produced a sizable counter rally. the other point to note despite how difficult this bear market has been, it has been controlled and clean. if you look in this context, and if the dollar cooperates here, then you can still have a much larger bear market rally that went to the weekly 50 m&a. >> so 4200 is your call and this is all predicated on the fed

stepdown which you pointed out on twitter the odds of a 50-point increase at 10% or so moved higher over the course of a day. there's this notion in the market, sven, and it feels like your call needs to be based on that >> the fed has come from far behind the fed has no visibility of what the lag effect of these rate hikes is. in fact, jay powell does not expect 75-point rate hikes to be common he's done three in a row and is slated to go on four

the fed having gone so aggressive, which they needed to, has reached a wall of potential financial instability. it's no accident all of a sudden we have interventions from the bank of japan, the bank of england the other day. you don't want to cause financial instability. >> we've never seen the fed stop when it is less than the headline inflation rate. which means they have to raise 75 or lose credibility the market moves depends on the dollar if the dollar keeps retreating then the market can go higher. if the dollar firms up, i think the market retreats. just your comment on the dollar. >> the dollar from a technical

perspective this year has been fantastic. it reached a multiyear trend line it's done that now two months in a row. massly overbought. i agree the dollar needs to continue to reverse. regarding the fed funds rate, we're in a very different economy after 14, 15 years of free money and debt accumulation, go back to 2008. we were at 64% debt to gdp to see the velocity of the yield moves that we've seen this year may not allow it we are seeing all of this angst here in terms of financial stability. >> sven, great to speak with you. >> thanks, melissa

>> guy, what do you make of this call we will have in this short-term rally here? >> his work is spot on we started talking about him october 14, right around there when we saw the ridiculous numbers, the vix traded and you saw huge interday moves signifying a bottom. it happened in june. we talked about it on june 16th, thought we could trade up to 4,200. we said it a couple weeks ago this is a similar setup. i think you have another handle about a 50% move from the low of 3491 it doesn't mean i'm bullish, that everything has been fixed in terms of the dollar and yield, still lower left upper right but it's back end filled a couple times

>> yes, we finished lower on the nasdaq today but if sven's call is right it's predicated on the notion we are going to see this stepdown or pivot and rates will be tame. >> the monetary policy overhang trumps warnings. last earnings when we sidestepped the apocalypse there was now this move toward the next earning cycle and whether or not inflation started to peak and whether you were able to pass through how the consumer would hold up, we're seeing the market move lock step related to rates. i'm with him i definitely think that is what's going to be front and center you know what i think about the

fed. the perception around when the fed might pivot or sidestep or i don't even know what the acronyms are anymore, i think that's the tail that's wagging the dog. >> coming up, more after hours action shares of ford, the company conference call is under way we'll bring you the details next intel's self-driving company surging nearly 38% is the industry in need of a pit stop more on that when "fast money" returns. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this.

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welcome back to "fast money. an earnings alert on ford shares driving lower but off their worst levels the automaker pointing to supply chain problems saying it will wind down its argo ai business so let's trade this one. guy, what did you make of the quarter? >> almost a $3 billion -- that is not an insignificant number but i guess it had to be done, number two the quarter stand alone is not bad. it's not great but it's not a disaster i think the stock is probably unchanged, slightly lower. in terms of the technicals we mentioned it last week when we played the great game or trade it or fade it, held that, a bit

of a double bottom this stock could go up to 15 and still be a disaster. that's a pretty good trade >> i think they're definitely doing the right thing. just bite the bullet it's a noncash charge. jack welsh used to say if you're not one or two in a business, get out. they're doing the right thing. it's a hard quarter for everyone, supply chain issues across-the-board in every industry, particularly ought motives. i thought it was decent. >> i feel it's taking too long to get through the supply chain issues a company the size of ford should have a workaround gm once they printed, there was a definite different price action in gm i think the only thing they have going for ford is they're making some headway with electric vehicles, with evs rates are going higher, there will be less purchases of cars this seems like a layup to the down side, but i agree with guy

there is support >> bono, does this sort of -- do you connect the dots to people buying cars as well? or not buying cars >> well, mel, you never fail to impress me yes. durable goods purchases, anything you need to finance, those types of things will come under pressure here. and while i will tip my cap to ford being on the top line that compression is not something you want to see. when you look at the companies that have been able to perform, those that have been able to pass along costs they've got it to the lower end of the range and that's with 40,000 vehicles set to be pushed out to the next quarter. so, i don't know yes, the market seems like it could have a bear market rally here i don't think this be a great report at all. >> all right, ford shares down a percent. much more "fast money" to come here is what's up next >> announcer: ai takes the wheel. a big surge for intel's mobile

eye as it comes back to market could there be bumps in the road for the industry plus, optimus prime. i mean, options prime. traders gearing up for amazon's report tomorrow. so will the numbers deliver? the details ahead.

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welcome back to "fast money. a big surge for mobileye jumping nearly 40% today intel, of course, bought mobileye interesting timing given what

the industry is going through. how do you feel about mobileye >> yes, so very interesting. i think this thing was purported to ipo at around 50 billion back this time last year, so you're really seeing a read through into perception around growth valuations and you're seeing it come down across the board and really across subsectors we talked about ford taking it on their autonomous business the stock performed so well. you see a lot of companies step away from this whether i think karen made a dment about being first or second in the space, i think all of them are finding it extremely hard to deliver and beat expectations in terms of autonomous capabilities. >> when intel is holding mobileye's hand, they had tremendous growth. even though intel has a commanding hold still on it but more behind the scenes in the

shares, in the equity positions. we're going to see how they float on their own and i'm not sure with this environment how much a self-drive stock is -- this feels like we're looking at mood rings again, right we're not looking at rare earth. this feels like we're looking at stuff that elon musk has cornered the market on self-drive, and they can't figure out how to get through the regulatory hurdles on the federal level. so when is that going to eventually take place? i think we're going to be looking at a stock that probably falls precipitously. >> well, at least for now, karen, it's a good sign for the ipo market, companies that can go public will go public and can be received decently even in a dower market >> i was surprised they went ahead, right -- >> and they did well >> traded really well. remember, the amount they actually sold to the public is relatively small i think in this environment

that's a win for the bankers coming up, we're keeping an eye on shares of meta. the stock is down sharply. a top analyst joins us next to dig into the social stock's quarter. more on that next plus three big moves from today's session, biogen, oil, boeing. mes enthe re doing with es nawh "fast money" returns. ♪♪ ♪♪ be ready for any market with a liquid etf. get in and out with dia. - yieldstreet presents: alternative investing be rwith kal penn andet wiolder kal penn.. - oh, the stock market is doing that fun thing again. - hey news from the future, you're going to live through that about 10 more times. (laughs)

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welcome back to "fast money. stocks losing steam this afternoon, the dow finishing virtually flat the nasdaq leading the losses dropping more than 2%. but a falling tide didn't sink all boats. the energy and health care sectors leading the s&p both up more than 1% and chinese stocks with a big bounce jumping more than 8%. that's its best day since march. now let's get more on meta's third quarter. in the after hours on news the social media giant sees more weakness scott, how do you think the scott is looking trading at a forward p/e of just about 12 >> thanks a lot, melissa i don't think people are overly

concerned about valuation. i think they see a company with two straight corners of revenue declines, op-ex and capex have continued to increase and now the company is talking about a hiring freeze and a facilities realignment. these are things that are not giving people positive signs as we look to close the year and start 2023 >> i guess embedded in my question, scott, is there a p/e at which this thing is so cheap can you even overlook the things you outlined or is no p/e appropriate for a company in this position at this point? >> right, so we focus on the fundamentals and right now it's pretty clear meta has a lot of challenge. what's interesting is they've known about some of these issues for a while at this point and

experts we talked to suggest that the company could have gotten ahead of what happened in terms of idfa a little bit better than they did they could have come up with some work arounds and then the weak economy has not helped at all. they haven't been in a challenged situation like this in a way that i think gives them any level of confidence. >> it's karen. thanks for being on. if you hear this onslaught of the spend is just way too much, what would you do if you were they and they did cut the spend by a lot does that change your view of the story? that's not particular to them. >> that's fair, karen. a couple things, and i think some people have been public about this

they've been talking about the metaverse and the billion uses over the next decade that's not going to happen for a while. i think they need to be more realistic and, frankly, more conservative when it comes to the spending as it applies to the metaverse. number two, they added thousands of employees just in q3 alone. i know they indicated they won't be adding on a net basis any more employees through the end of next year, but i don't know if that's good enough. i think they need to make harder ch choices and indicate to us how they will refocus the company and reignite growth. >> pivoting away from the metaverse, what would you recommend? do they reallocate that spend to reels? is there low-hanging fruit they can do to sort of revive the

story? >> based on conversations with experts there are two things that come to mind. short form video is definitely at the top of the list that is in the near term for the company. it's our sense they need to get to 50% or 60% of users' time spent on instagram with reels to really start making an impact with that particular platform and service offering they need to essentially double where they are now it seems they made a big splash during the height of covid now they've pulled back. it seems tiktok is cooking their goose in short form video and

e-commerce where it looks like meta is pulling back and you look at tiktok and they're moving full steam ahead. they just need to execute and they're two to three years behind but they are ahead when it comes to monetization >> scott, great to get your take on this. thanks a lot these are still i don't want to say long term. they're not immediate things that can be accomplished, and after hours session lows down almost 17% >> they are more invested but we've talked about the rate environment and how when you're discounting something that's happening even five years out into the future in this current rate environment, now something

that's twice as long in maturity and they're continuing to pour money in that's what's giving investors angst. >> bonawyn, is there some level you would say, all right, there's a giant business there they've lost their way, is there some point you would say, all right, the risk/reward is compelling >> sure. i would have to massively discount the upside i expect if they were to pivot, i agree clearly that's them throwing in the towel on them being a growth business i expect that growth to be much smaller and stable over time but the opportunity cost for me putting money there is, again, much higher.

it's just that my upside gets discounted so aggressively sure i think it becomes a safer play but one that's much less robust >> guy, i have a question for you. >> i like this game. >> who said it was a game? does this stock look better or worse than it did at the close >> worse infinitely it's worse we've been saying this for a while. number of people on twitter pointed this out they bought back $42 billion at an average price of $300 they're lousy traders, number one. they're betting the future of the company on something nobody understands and they can't explain, number two. and there's a certain arrogance to that. all they have to start doing is monetizing the user base that is head and shoulders above

everybody else's if i'm mr. zuckerberg, which i'm not, i'm getting on the blower to the white house and say you have to ban tiktok that's their life line >> that would be a game changer potentially if that happened let's look at earnings after the bell hi, brian. >> interesting action in amazon. when i looked at it earlier i saw open interest ticking up 20% the last five days what's going on there? we have the earnings coming up tomorrow we all know that the seller of the march 80 put the break even trade is at the 2020 lows of covid i would never really do that unless i thought, hey, we're not

going to get a disaster in amazon now or in the next few months options aren't cheap this stock has moved huge over 12%. trading as if this will only move 7% or 8%. i think a call option, because i own this for clients, is an interesting way to play to the upside i wouldn't necessarily want to own the stock in that case i have a big earning event it could be a nice way to play this consumer discretionary, software all wrapped up into one. >> thanks, brian for more options action tomorrow at 5:30 p.m. eastern time. we'll break down three names moving in different directions in what is driving their action. plus, throwing in the towel on

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starting with biogen shares up 2.5% after goldman sachs upgraded to a buy. analysts bullish on biogen's early alzheimer's drug which is expected to reach the market next year, could see sales of $14 billion, just in time to replace the declining revenue from its ms franchise, guy >> if biogen has this right, and you go back seven years, the market thought they had it right and you saw how they were rewarded if they have it right, this stock would go from a $40 billion market cap to $100 billion very quickly goldman put $370 price target. this is the deep end of the pool there's a binary element to this look at amgen and big cap

pharma i sort of like the call. there's a level of -- >> that binary event could be a readout of this drug grasso, do you like biogen >> the fact we're talking about something other than covid or covid leverage or vaccine leverage ticks a lot of boxes for investments. i think it's a great spot. i would have liked to have bought it before the spike was higher it's up 43% in one month that, to me, wait for a better entry. i do like the name >> do not miss an interview with the chairman and ceo who was just named chairman of merck on "squawk box" here on cnbc. next oih etf popping as crude exports surge to record highs and the that are falters shares have jumped close to 50%.

karen? >> yes that's been good unlike some other problem children that i have in my portfolio. i think it's a combination of it was oversold -- i'm long oih, and relative to oil, oil doesn't need to go up. in fact it could stay flat or even go down and the oih should still do well. that trade has worked up about 40%. so i took that off but i'm still long the oih this rally now is starting to get a little bit long in the tooth straight up, something i'm not used to so, i don't know i feel like this one is also a little late similar to biogen. it's really had a huge run we could probably find a place to buy it. >> buzz kill now on boeing, the stock sinking nearly 9% after reporting a loss of $3 billion in the third quarter

strength in boeing's commercial unit overshadowed by problems in the defense business including ongoing issues with the new air force one. bonawyn, how are you feeling >> this is challenging i think the bulls will point to the full cash flow, triple what was expected $2.9 billion, $3 billion. the positives end there when you talk about a defense business, you expect that to be a bit counter cyclical and hold up well to have a massive loss makes for a challenging backdrop >> guy, defense stocks, if i recall, were your final trade yesterday. how are you feeling today? >> everybody else seems to figure it out. if your name seems to be lockheed martin or northrup -- they seem to have no problems in this environment boeing have been offsides and it's been difficult to own the shares at a certain point this will be

compelling it's not here yet. they continue to trip over themselves when everybody else in the space, their competitors, figures it out no bueno here. >> coming up, fedup with fedex why one of our traders is throwing in the towel. don't go anywhere. the pursuit is on. the pursuit of outperformance at pgim. with deep expertise to outthink across multiple asset classes, actively managing investments in the world's public and private markets. outscale, with the resources to serve 1,500 clients in 52 countries. and outlast, with long-term conviction that looks beyond today's volatility. join the pursuit of outperformance at pgim. the investment management business of prudential.

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fedex finished in the green but one of our traders is throwing in the towel on this transport trade. karen, why >> yes, well, a couple reasons several weeks ago fedex announced that miss, which was shortly after their big, you know, introducing the new ceo, which he's been there a long time anyway, and they said we missed in the quarter but we still are really confident in 2025 i'm thinking, wow, how can they have no confidence in this quarter that they're currently in but still feel good about the clarity for 2025 so a little bit of stock then, stupid to have not sold it off

but yesterday u.p.s. came out with their earnings. they're in extremely similar businesses and yet it seems to be so much better managed on every metric whether it's return on capital or margins or profitability per package and just seemed to have they are handle on every part of the business fedex seems to have an excuse for why this didn't work or that didn't work or what they need to fix. so at this point the whole space has gone down. i feel like on an absolute basis u.p.s., though it is more expensive than fedex, it's a better risk/reward there's that and one other thing which is tax law is selling. i feel like, all right, take the loss in fedex. i can revisit this in 31 days if i want to or the higher quality name which is u.p.s. >> this is the ultimate would you rather meta shares right now after

hours down 18% let's get back to julia boorstin for headlines from the company's call julia? >> well, some interesting commentary from ceo mark zuckerberg as we see the stock plummeting on concerns about increasing losses in the reality labs division and there's no indication they're going to be spending less on that metaverse project. mark zuckerberg talking about how things with the core business are going well. he talked about progress with tiktok saying they believe they are making gains in terms of time spent with competitors such as tiktok, a 50% increase in reels plays across facebook and instagram and that within the next 12 to 18 months the transition of consumer time over to reels will become a tail wind instead of a headwind. and then reiterating this idea their head count will be flat between now and the end of next year there may be hiring and firing that will be maintaining that

total head count if you look at the fact the stock is down nearly 19% operating expense guidance does seem to be something that is raising concerns and playing through. looking at 18.6% decline in the stock as investors weigh some of the challenges facing this company. >> julia, thanks either not enough or not convincing or a combination of the two at this point with the stock down so much in the after hours session. grasso, what do you do now >> cry >> after crying. >> then you have to manage or this was a flyer for me. i thought everything was derisked in the name i should have waited but i thought it was going to be up off earnings i waited a couple of days. i believe we'll probably seep the bottom

the next support is $94. i will hold it for a couple days >> it's, what, $300 billion or so or less in market cap at this point in the after hours session, smaller than home depot, bigger than bank of america. karen what do you do after you wipe some of your tears away do you buy more? >> this is absolutely a three-day rule for sure. >> three days today. >> right it's really been -- i think we're going to see giant downgrades tomorrow, see people just throwing in the towel that will be more selling. you have to wait >> all right, "final trades" next

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"final trade" time guy? >> stay in energy. marathon petroleum >> bonawyn >> nat gas >> steven grasso >> nexgen. >> karen finerman?

>> long energy i'm taking a different tact, oih has to sell november 3 calls that's an all-time high so taking money off the table there in oih >> all right thank you all for watching "fast money. see you back tomorrow at 5:00. don't go anywhere. "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now . my mission is simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors, there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends, i'm just trying to save you some money my job is not just to entertain but to educate, to teach, to discover, to learn so-call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet m me @jimcramer. for over a decade tech