30 seconds that we have left, less than, 20, on what lies ahead tonight and the importance of that. >> i'm not overly excited. >> which is a shocker, because normally, this is like the super bowl >> bwell, i just don't think there's the potential for the market to mover a lot higher on this >> yeah, it's the super bowl, put your helmet on >> i'll see you all in overtime. the exchange is now. scott, thank you very much welcome, everybody, to the exchange i'm tyler mathisen in for kelly evans. here's what's coming up. mark zuckerberg's metaverse spending spree the stock sinking as the company burns through cash but we are looking for opportunities, when meta spends, others are taking that research. we're going to look at the companies that are benefiting from meta's big money moves. plus, wing stop up 30% chicken wing prices down 42% from last year

we'll talk to the ceo about consumer spending and where he sees prices heading next we're going to talk apple and amazon and intel, obvious, in today's earnings exchange. but we begin with the markets. bob pisani is at the new york stock exchange mr. p., take it away >> thank you very much, tyler. we have something rather unusual. the s&p is down fractionally the reason this is happening, we're getting excellent reports from some big industrials and health care names that are helping the dough the s&p 500 is getting weighed down with problems in the tech world, and largely meta that is weighing that down. very, very heavy market capitalization and communication services and tech. and that's really what's happening with the nasdaq composite, as well it's got a lot of the same things that's in communication service and technology

great stuff if you're not in technology caterpillar, good earnings mcdonald's, good earnings. honeywell, good earnings merck, that's $100 that's an historic high for america. all of these powering the dow forward right now. if you look at the tech world, the dow would be much higher if it weren't for apple and microsoft. we would be another 40 to 50 points higher if it wasn't for that elsewhere, meta platforms down 22%. not a typo in the meantime, we have some new highs in some energy stocks. exxonmobil, there was a joke going around yesterday, exxon is the new f.a.a.n.g. at this point. and energy stocks have been strong also, celebrity health care stocks like humana and cardinal health, also at new high what do these have in common they're mostly associated with

values, energy stocks, industrial, some health care usually associated with value. and value has been predominating. so far this month, value up 10%, growth up 3% talk a little bit more about that in the next hour. >> robert, had a wonderful celebration for you last night if the book is anything like the way you tell a story on the stage, it's a great book >> it was a wonderful time thank you, tyler appreciate you being there >> it sure was bob, you're one of the best. let's shares of meta plummeting more than 20% after the company missed earnings estimates and issued a weak forecast for the fourth quarter but an even larger red flag catching analysts' attention that is the company's massive spending spree on the metaverse, which shows no signs of slowing down anytime soon. there's the chart. meta now expects capital

expenditures between 32 and 33 billion this year. it still represents a 69% increase in spending year over y year our next guest sees as a tailwind for a number of company that stand to benefit from the development of the metaverse aaron rakers is an equity analyst at wells fargo aaron, welcome good to have you with us this is an extraordinary amount of capital spending by a single company. $32 billion in a year. that's really unheard of, almost >> it's a significant amount of capital expenditures, from meta. as we look at it, there was an expectation that they would pull down the capital expenditures from this year to the next year. and we got quite the opposite last night

that's positive for a handful of the names that we cover, ariesta, nvidia, amd, and the smaller cap area of pure storage. >> let's dig in on some of those names. because as we said, that money is going somewhere it's not going out into the meta verse. it's going into the real universe so let's go through a couple of those names in a little more gra granularity. why don't you start with nvidia. there's a stock that was one of the great darlings of the past half decade or so, until it wasn't can this kind of spending help it materially? >> i think if you look at nvidia, if you listen to any of these calls, if it's not meta, it's google or alphabet this week ai is at the forefront and when we talk about ai or machine learning, recommendation engines, natural language processing, it automatically brings you to what compute layer underlies that infrastructure. and that's going to be gpus. and nvidia is the predominant,

90% plus market share player in data center dprgpus meta is building out a large super computer around ai, scaling that to 16,000 nvidia gpus over the next year or so. and certainly, nvidia is a the forefront of that. nvidia has some challenges on the gaming side, but we still think the data centerpiece of nvidia's business, especially on the heels of meta, is poised for some pretty attractive growth here as we move forward. let alone a pretty positive product cycle kicking in with their new hopper generation gpus >> and what about amd. another market darling for many years, but it has obviously come down along with the market this year we've seen weak nness in that on the data center side, where they're gaining a solid side in server cpus, we think amd is well positioned, not alone for

just meta, but also for one of the hyperscale cloud vendors specific for meta, they announced initially getting a footprint in some meta back late last year. and so we think a lot of this capital expenditures could certainly be a positive for amd as they look poised to continue to take market share and also roll out their next generation, what's call genua processor here in a couple of weeks. >> if you don't mind, linger a little bit about meta itself and how you would handcap the health of this company are they literally spending too much and staking too much on the m metaverse or is it too early to tell or -- we're back down at stock levels not seen since 2016, profits are being pressured, what do you think >> yeah, i'm going to defer to our analyst for that kind of assessment i think what we are seeing, though, the importance of ai,

again, as i mentioned earlier, recommendation engines, being able to, you know, basically craft and look at data very quickly, to optimize your engagement with the end users. i think that's not just a meta discussion, it's broad bates it's google talking about in our conference call, we're in the early innings of ai. you heard microsoft talk about ai and machine learning in their conference call this week. and so, i think this idea of meta, you know, looking at, you know, their fundamentals, there's a lot of focus on onex versus capex we think the role that ai plays is certainly an area that will continue to see significant investments into >> all right thank you very much, aaron rakers of wells fargo, thanks very much. appreciate it. the street is crushing meta today for its massive spending spree. our next guest says that companies showing financial discipline in this environment are going to be rewarded by the markets. so where is she finding value? let's bring in maria chrin,

macking partner at circle wealth management maria, welcome good to have you with us >> welcome >> so where are you finding these not unicorns, but these special companies that have financial discipline, they're governing their capital spending, maybe they're cutting back on employee head count and other things where are you finding them, give us some names? >> well, i think we're seeing from the beginning of this earnings season that a lot of the financials and the industrials that have been very careful about capital allocation are getting rewarded we came into this earnings season thinking that we didn't foe whether companies were going to meet earnings, beat earnings, or give positive or negative guidance and what we have seen is that things have been better than expected, and that has really helped those sectors, where the companies for the most part have been able to be better and show that discipline. and so industrials and financials, and even the health care sector, are amongst those

that have shown that >> you certainly see that, what is it, caterpillar out today, a fantastic story. >> caterpillar, honeywell, merck, mcdonald's. all of these types of boring companies in a way that are doing the right things, being able to have pricing power, being able to help their margins. and continue to do well for shareholders >> they may not be sexy, but they are good, right i'm telling you. they just keep -- they keep doing what they do well. let's talk about technology on maybe the other side of the coin here, maria. talk to me about technology broadly. have they been, irresponsible is too judgmental a word. and i don't want to be judgmental it's not nice to be judgmental, but have they demonstrated the kind of discipline that ideally you would like to see? or are they victims in some cases of a market that has turned, of the fact, for example, that people bought a

lot of pcs and mcintoshes during the pandemic and are now postponing those or don't need them >> yeah. i mean, we saw microsoft got hurt earlier this week, because the pcs, among other things, that are cyclically driven and as you said, a lot of those trends were driven by covid and by a change in how we work, et cetera but at the end of the day, there is a major secular trend that the prior guest was speaking about, with technology and we can judge how each company might have been disciplined, not as disciplined, but at the end of the day, the secular trend of investment and technology including machine learning, ai, and other areas is here to stay and that is not going to change. it may slow down, it could go into a recession, but it's really a long-term secular trend. however, you see that a lot of the megacap companies had gone out on a labor hiring spree, over the last two years, you see some of the main companies, meta

being up 84% in their workforce. you had google about 60%, similarly, microsoft and amazon, being the one that hired almost 99% increase in employment and that's going to change because the discipline that will be needed and the labor market that will be needed going forward, we're seeing how the market is judging, you know, how that discipline is really coming into the stock prices. and so, at the end of the day, i think this trend of secular investment in technology is continuing, but there's going to be some shifts, labor being one of them. >> let's talk a little bit about the -- broaden out a bit, if we might, to discuss the rally. i, for one -- excuse me, have been surprised by how positive the month of october has been. i'm just told that it's been the best month since october of 1987 that was the month of the crash. and so, boy, the last couple of weeks of 1987's october must have been something else i barely remember it, by the

way. but anyhow, what do you think of this rally does it have staying power are you still suspicious of it what >> well, as i said before, we have come into this quarter and in this month of october, really not knowing what to expected and what we've seen is earnings that were better than expected, in this cases, and also, you've come into this november month with expectations of a lot of the central bankers starting to be at the end of their interest rate hike cycles we've started to see a number of central banks around the world saying that they're closer to the end of the cycle so the market is expecting that the fed meeting next week could start to see the end of the cycle. you would have to go to 50 basis points in december and now markets are thinking that we could be in the 0 to 25 early next year, so that we are at the end of that cycle, and so

that has been a dovish overlay into what has been better than expected earnings. and that has caused this rally frankly, i think it's perhaps a little overdone. and we have to be very careful, because the fed is not going to turn dovish next week, to the contrary, i think they're not going to say, oh, we've won the inflation war. so we have to be really mindful of that. but i do understand why the rally has happened, because we are so oversold and so negative coming into this month >> maria, it's great to see you, thank you for being with us today. >> thank you for having me >> really great to have you here maria chrin of circle wealth management coming up, inflation has been creeping up everywhere, except in chicken wings. they're getting cheaper. and that has helped wingstop deliver a beat on the top and bottom lines the stock up 36% in just one week the ceo joins us live next we'll ask him what kind of wing he likes the best.

plus, the tech earnings bonanza continues. apple, amazon, intel on deck that is three biggies. we've got the action, the story, the trade all ahead on the earnings exchange. as we head to break, let's get a quick check on the markets the dow holding on to a 4 400-point game, s&p 500, kind of flat, 3 points higher, nasdaq down about 1%. ten-year yield below 4%. "the exchange" back after this ♪♪ ♪♪ be ready for any market with a liquid etf. get in and out with dia.

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welcome back to "the exchange," everybody here's something you don't hear often in earnings reports these days deflation and no price hikes that's what we heard from wingstop shares are taking off, up 14% after the company reported better than expected profits for the week the stock is up about 36% or thereabouts. the restaurant chain saw chicken prices fall more than 40% year over year. growth came from more consumers, a few more stores opening. joining us now, wingstop ceo, michael stipworth. how do you like your wings are you a spicy guy, a buffalo guy, what? what's your fave >> tyler, that was a really easy question for me to answer a couple of months ago

i'm a lemon pepper guy it's a really unique flavor, the way we do it at wingstop, but since we've launched our chicken sandwich, which you can get in any of our 12 flavors, it's a tough run for its money on whether i'm a wing guy or a chicken sandwich guy now >> the chicken sandwich has really taken off and you basically sold through all your inventory in a week or something like that. what are the numbers that jumped -- it's a very good story. let's talk about why chicken wing prices have come down what, i guess they went way up and now they've come down. why have they come down so much? >> tyler, we saw back during the pandemic, a lot of people jumped into wings and it really ran the prices up to record levels and what we have seen over prior inflationary periods in wings is when that happened, people move away from the product and it becomes a lot of excess inventory. and that's where we are today. people have opened up. their kitchens, their dining rooms and they're back to their traditional menu items and that's left a lot of wing

product on the market for us and it's set up a really incredible year for wingstop in 2022, where we've enjoyed meaningful deflation in our business and haven't had to take price. and i think that's part of the story that's led to us being able to grow our sales in q3 by 6.9% and the majority of that sales growth coming from traction growth, not price. >> not price you haven't been raising prices at all, really right? >> that's right. >> let's talk a little -- if i'm understanding you correctly, what happened during the pandemic is that people were going out and buying wings and often they were cooking them at home, okay so they put pressure under the price of wings now they've gone back to a more regular pattern, where maybe wings aren't part of the home menu so they go out to a wingstop to get it am i understanding correctly >> well, we plaid ryed really w

and were positioned for growth during the pandemic. even before the pandemic hit, 80% of our business was offpremise we had the delivery channel in place, we had invested in technology to have an industry-leading digital platform and we saw meaningful growth during the pandemic, which when you fast forward to q3, we've had same-store sales stacked growth over the last three year of over 30%. pretty incredible top-line growth and so we saw a lot of restaurants reopen and so people were returning back to maybe more regular dining behavior. but we've been able to retain those guests from the pandemic, and our digital business that we grew to north of 60% during the pandemic is sticky, and we sustained that level of digital miss >> that was a number that leepd o out at me. digital business, 60%. you couldn't have grown the way you've grown unless you mastered the digital part of the business could you? >> that's right. we've had a really strong digital business and have made early investments and saw this

as an opportunity for growth for our business those digital occasions carry a $5 higher average check, which means not only is it a more efficient transaction for our brand partners in the restaurant, but also a more profitable and sales-driving transaction for the restaurants. >> 19 -- am i right, 1,900 stores worldwide right now, on your way to how many and talk to me just briefly about how that footprint is going to change, both within the united states, the north american market, and then globally where are your points where you see the ability to penetrate new markets. >> tyler, we've got a really exciting growth story. and at wingstop, it feels like we are 1,900 units strong, but we're just getting started we believe we have an opportunity to scale this brand to over 7,000 units worldwide. we see over 4,000 inside the u.s. and the rest outside of the

u.s., where we have an emerging international business that's really exciting. these unit economics that our brand partners enjoy, again, we talk about that deflation. the average investment to build a wingstop is only $400,000. and our brand partners are enjoying a cash payback on that investment in almost less than two years. and so that's fueled a record development year for us so far in 2022, where we've opened 167 net new restaurants, which translates to 13.5% unit growth. and that's against, generally speaking, a pretty aggressive macro backdrop, which speaks to the momentum and strength of the brand. >> michael lemonpepper skipworth. thanks, man. coming up, a dive into the technicals one sector that's showing strong momentum to the upside versus the s&p and one that's merely seeing an oversold bounce with little underlying strength that's the narrative we're going to talk about. plus, a look at some names that

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welcome back to the schaing. let's take you through the markets. we've got higher, flat, and lower. that's basically the story here. the dow at its high was up 549 poi points i said earlier, we're on track for the best month since october of '87, something didn't feel right, it's since november of 1987 whatever you've got, you've got a 400-point gain flat on the s&p. earnings movers, with one thing in common today, that would be pricing power. auto nation reported new vehicle prices were up, used car prices up more than 7%. cougar dr. pepper saw a 12% increase in prices, but volumes were flat, and that weighed on gross margins. there you see that stock down almost 3%. stanley black & decker said that a 9% rise in prices helped offset currency headwinds.

there you see that stock down today by a buck and three quarters in percentage terms mcdonald's also offset currency issues by what they called strategic menu price increases that's called higher prices, folks. finally, oshkosh, they posted a big miss primarily because of supply constraints the ceo pointed out that its pricing actions to combat inflations were, in fact, working. the stock is working today, up 1 2/3 percent. my friend contessa brewer is here with a cnbc news update >> here's what's happening this hour a tennessee man who dragged a police officer into a mob of rioters during the january 6th insurrection has been now sentenced to more than seven easier in prison the judge called that attack one of the darkest acts committed on one of our nation's darkest days the sentence is the second longest for anyone in connection with the january 6th

british prime minister sunak is focusing on domestic issues including a much-anticipated budget plan. the opposition labor party slammed that decision, calling a it a big mistake in minnesota, watch this a coal-fired power plant was imploded it took down a land meamark in t region why do we love to see things blowing up so much it has stood there for 92 years and now a cloud of dust. on the news, democrats changing their pitch to voters less than two weeks to election day. will their new focus on economic issues help? that's tonight at 7:00 eastern tyler wible see you in half an hour for "power lunch" >> i'll see you at 2:00. top of the hour, contessa, looking forward. still ahead, folks here comes the big one apple getting ready to report. amazon and intel on deck as well we're going to get you ready with the key things to watch and how to position on all three earnings exchanges are next.

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all right, everybody welcome back it is time now for the earnings

exchange we've got the action, the story, and the trade on three stocks you probably care about, apple, amazon, and intel. first up, let's tackle apple shares are down 70% this year, as pc and smartphone demand continues to slide a bit the company hit hard by macro headwinds in 2022, and it's also faced the challenge of a strong u.s. dollar. steve cocerak has the story and courtney garcia joins us with the trade. she's a senior wealth adviser at payne capital management and a cnbc contributor steve, walk us through apple >> reporter: it's like you were saying, can apple resist this falling demand for smartphones and pcs that we've been seeing from its rivals. a few days ago, microsoft warned it's going to get even worse with consumer electronics. but so far, the early data that we have, tyler, is pretty optimistic about apple it seems that sales will be maybe flat on a unit basis for the iphone, but at the same

time, we'll get indications that maybe the pro model is selling better and making up for any revenue on flat sales. look, this quarter that we're getting is only going to reflect about eight days of iphone 14 sales, so we're not going to get the full picture, but we could at least get some early indications on how those fiphone are serving. facing those headwinds from inflation, foreign exchange, and all of those problems that we've been talking about, at the same time, this quarter we're seeing apple raise prices on those services just earlier this week, raising prices on apple music and appletv plus, also putting new ads in the app store, which, by the way, sales for the app store are likely going to be darn for this past quarter, tyler so they're really trying to make up some lost ground there by finding new ways and new levers to pull to get revenue out of their services division. so those are the big key issues we're watching on top of that,

also, the china shutdowns that have affected their supply chain throughout this year so far. so, any easing up on there that could help with ipad and max mac sales, tyler >> courtney, walk us through apple. what you see here. steve laid it out from max to phones to iphone 14s and more. >> yeah, and apple definitely has a lot of headwinds that they've been facing, as do a lot of your megatech firms right now. i do like apple. i think they are going to be better positioned than a lot of your other megatech cap firms, specifically, because they have so much cash on their balance sheets, which will put them in a better position to weather any down period that we have and specifically, seeing some of those pc and iphone demand problems moving forward, we'll have to see how much of that is impacted by additional sales of their higher-end products like the pro and the promax but they really do have really good customer retention rates, a really long-term addressable market, especially in your emerging markets as a longer term investment, i definitely want to make sure

that you have a piece of this. i'm not overweighting it, by any means. but you see even today, those prices are starting to get sold off. >> very interesting. let's move on. thank you, steve let's move on to amazon. the stock down 32% this year, losing more than $540 billion in market cap over the course of a year in an effort to offset higher costs, amazon has shed warehouse space, shuttered its telehealth division, it's frozen hiring in some of its retail businesses deirdre bosa joins us now with the story on amazon. hi, deirdre? and amazon took all of these steps earlier this year to become more efficient, and thus the street is expecting it to return the profitability this quarter, which would actually be a contrast to what we've seen from big tech so far i mean, they are profitable, but that efficiency piece has been missing for the likes of alphabet and meta. amazon may deliver on this keep in mind, aws growth, we are expecting a deceleration here, a sharper than expected one, that

would likely hit the stock after microsoft warned its cloud may slow in the quarter ahead. also, this is the all-important q4 holiday quarter that we are going into so guidance here is going to be extremely important, as a reminder, damazon tells us what to expect in terms of the current quarter's revenue and operating profit >> let's switch to you, courtney, and find out what you think about amazon thanks, deirdre. >> amazon is two stories here. i think we think a lot of them as our ecommerce business, which has been our bread and butter. this could be the first year that we're seeing more profit coming from their aws or their services than their products which i think is really important for their longer-term story, that is going to be a lot more important to their bottom line, is a lot higher margins for them that long-term, i think, is a great story, even on their ecommerce business side, i think they have a lot of things they're starting to cycle through, some of your supply chain issues are starting to go away i think that's going to help them again, i am not overweighting this right now that along with all of your

large megataxes are in a higher rate environment but i would start to look at this long-term investor. these are going to start to be good entry points. >> so this in your book is a buy, move in with all due caution, but it is a buy for you. deirdre, thanks very much. courtney, back to you in just a second when we tackle intel, the chip maker has had a rough 2022, a rough several years, basically down 48% this year the company ended its second quarter with a $454 million net loss, not much looking brighter in the third quarter kristina partsinevelos has that story for us kristina >> well, intel is pretty much caught between a rock and a hard spot, it's been pushing for government funding, but dealing with a stock down almost 50% year-to-date, performing worse than the stocks, the semiconductor index. and this is a company that's highly exposed to pc demand. we've seen that drop dramatically it's losing market share to amd when it comes to data centers.

there have been product launch delays, and you have the mobile ipo that just happened during these market conditions, you would think that the company needs a cash injection, even though the ceo denied that earlier this week, but why go ahead and partner with brookfield asset management to help fund your arizona fab lastly, quite severely, you had looming layoffs that the company is expected to announce either today or in the coming days. i did notice, too, the company has a dividend yield of over 5%, much more than all -- pretty much all of the other chipmakers out there. and there hasn't been a cut to that dividend since 2000 >> all right, kristina, thanks very much. courtney, what do you think of intel? intel in my opinion has far too many headwinds that are still ahead of them, unfortunately we've already seen some competition with amd and nvidia, that they're losing share value, too. and i think that's likely going to continue as we move forward here i think the biggest issue for them is the fact that more than half of their revenue comes from pc demand, which is going to continue to have some demand deterioration, as we look forward. so this is something that i'm

not really jumping into with two feet, currently. >> that's diplomatic put, courtney thank you very much. we appreciate it, kristina, thank you, as well a quick programming note the intel ceo, pat gelsinger is going to discuss the results tomorrow on tech check at 11:00 a.m. you won't want too miss that he shows up -- give the guy credit he's had a hard story, but he shows up anddelivers and answers questions. still ahead, in its annual report, the international energy agency has declared we are in the midst of the first global energy crisis. those details and the longer-term potential silver linings, next.

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welcome back, everybody. the iea declaring the first

global energy crisis in its annual report. why and can it be fixed? pippa stevens joins us now with the findings the first ever ever >> they say this is the first global energy crisis so, essentially, what the iaea's report says today that russia's invasion of ukraine has created an historic turning point for worldwide energy markets again, they dubbed current conditions the first global energy crisis and believe that policies have shifted not just for years, but for decades to come the iaea said in its widely followed annual report that russia will never regain its influence over energy markets and the crisis will ultimately hasten the transition to renewables that's because governments have outlined clean energy goals, including biden's inflation reduction act, meant to shield consumers for future energy price shocks in other words, energy security is what's driving a lot of this new investment the agency forecasts clean energy spending topping $2

trillion per year by the end of this decade. that's a 50% increase compared to today, but it's still well short of the $4 trillion per year they say is necessary to avoid the worst impacts of climate change still, for the first time, the report forecast demand for coal, oil, and gas, tyler, peaking by the end of this decade >> this is a very long-term look into the future. and hard to quibble with the idea that we're going to move more and more to renewables. but what do they say about the short-term they're talking about a global energy crisis and they're not talking about a decade from now, they're talking about now. >> well, sometimes it's very difficult to weigh both the short and long-term policies, particularly for very complicated markets like energy, because as you know, we need energy here and now. and we can see the impacts of, you know, it's a major driver of inflation when these energy prices skyrocket right now, it's really kind of an all of the above approach and also, the iaea has historically not always been

correct in their forecasts back in march, they thought that we'd see a huge drop-off in russian oil. that just hasn't happened so far. and so while they say longer term, this shift is coming, a lot of that is depend upon governments actually following through with these clean energy goals. so a lot of it remains to be seen a key portion of this report is that they see all fossil fuels peaking by the end of this decade >> it's a little bit of a chin stroking thought here, but i grew up focused on the vulnerability of the west to disruptions from oil and gas out of the middle east it is interesting to me that the ieae says that the real pivot point is russia's invasion of ukraine and the idea that russia, on which europe has been so dependent for energy sources, russia will never regain its primacy in -- >> well, i think one of the challenge that is once you implement these sanks, it's really hard to reverse them. it's really hard to put in

place, and we're seeing right now, the russian oil is still finding buyers, but the longer this war goes on, and the more governments move away from russian energy, it's really hard to reverse that once it takes place. we've seen all of these companies starting to withdraw from russia. once you're gone, why would you reenter? >> we haven't even got to those december days when the prices will go in, the boycotts will go in, so on and so forth pippa, thank you this sector is down 14% so far this year, but poised now for a breakout, according to one technician we'll reveal it and the sector she says is in for more pain, next "the excng wl rht ckhae"ilbeig

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welcome back, everybody, to "the exchange. it's been a strong week for the markets, despite some megacap tech earnings disappointments, but the month-to-date performance is what deserves the superlatives the dow on pace for one of its best months since november -- its best month, excuse me, since november of 1987 i can't even remember how old i was back then. but our next guest says while the charts are short-term

establish, there are some long-term storm clouds ahead let's bring in katie stockton, manage partner at fair lead securities what tells you that your short-term outlook ought to be bullish, but longer term you'reu >> in september we got a very widespread oversold reading. and that happens multiple times usually in bear market cycles and sometimes you get a muted reaction this time we saw enough improvement in our short-term momentum gauges to suggest we have a relief rally in store that could even rival the relief rally that we saw over the summer months. so our short-term gauges, our indicators do point higher, and we have implications from our overbought/oversold measures for at leastseveral weeks as stabilization, this of course comes at a pretty seasonally beneficial time for the markets as well. so that would add to some

conviction, that october killed the bear market temporarily at least. but beyond the near term we do think the bear market will keep its hold >> and one of the reasons you say that is as you look at the s&p's performance, as i understand it, and when i start talking technicals you'd better look out because i'm a dangerous soul here. one of the things, and i do know enough to know this, when you get lower highs and lower lows as we seem to be getting in the s&p that is not generally a good sign >> it's a really important point, actually. and while it's somewhat simplistic to trust that lower lows are a bad thing, we saw a lot of lower lows in september and we have to frame the relief rally within that context, that we do have the long-term down side momentum still negative it's still very widespread and expanding on the down side so with all those breakdowns those dictated bearish buys beyond the near term so that puts us on the lookout for a loss of short-term

momentum while we're not really inclined to take countertrend positions we know a lot of people do that anyway. we would be watching very short-term gauges. and as soon as they start to roll, just like they did back at the august high, we'd be pretty quick to reduce exposure again, put on the short-term market hedges and manage risk at the next drawdown, which for the s&p 500 we do think will take us back to 3500, potentially early next year. so we want to brace for more of the same >> let's talk about the dollar, and talk me through what you see in its price action in recent weeks and what you infer from that about the broader markets >> well, i think the dollar is in a very strong long-term uptrend and within that context of course we're seeing some consolidation. i'm just seeing it as consolidation, not any kind of major reversal and i'd extend the same comment to treasury yields we're looking for more of the same sideways or choppy action

in the dollar and yields and that could actually be seen as impetus here for the relief rally and equity market in part. certainly macro forces are really the drivers it seems although we have earnings season at hand as well. so with the dollar price to consolidate further we're actually getting some questions now about emerging markets some people are interested in i guess bottom fishing you could call it in that area and we think it's still very high risk to do so but we could get some temporary relative performance from some international equity markets as the dollar pauses. but we really want first the long-term prevailing trends which is up for dollar, up for yields and down for equities >> we're going to leave it there. katie stockton, thanks so much for your time today. we appreciate it we'll have you back soon >> of course >> katie stockton. still ahead we are 12 days away from the midterms and the biden administration is now going full throttle on economic messaging to try and stave off a red wave.

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welcome back, everybody. i want to get to one more thing before we go, and that is the midterm elections. 1 days away. and as a red wave seems more and more likely democrats from the president on down are now touting their work on the economy in an effort to regain momentum ylan mui joins us now with that part of the story. ylan, i have to say that it seems as though the democrats spent a lot of the summer campaigning on roe v. wade and the threats to personal freedom and not much of the summer campaigning on the economy or crime. those are the two areas that the gop i think have successfully tagged them with >> yeah, i think you're right, tyler.

and that's why today president biden and his cabinet are hitting the road with a new and focused economic pitch they want to contrast their bottom up middle out philosophy with what they're calling mega maga trickle-down economics from republicans. that means that they're talking up democrats' efforts to bring down costs for prescription drugs, health care, gas prices and student debt and they're attacking the gop as pushing tax breaks for the wealthy and cuts to social security and to medicare the white house hopes that coordinating their message will help amplify it. that's why commerce secretary gina rah y mundo was in marylan this morning hhs secretary went to texas. and treasury secretary yellen will deliver remarks from the swing state of ohio later on this afternoon now, the president himself will be in sr koous, where micron has announced a 20-year, $100 billion investment in chips that's projected to create 50,000 jobs. on his way there this afternoon president biden took a moment to

celebrate the strong gdp number. >> great economic report today the gdp report things are looking good. >> reporter: yeah, tyler, we'll see if democrats are still feeling good after election day. >> it's a very -- it's going to be a very interesting race as we look at it how does the administration slip the tag, justified or not, that they are somehow responsible for inflation? >> yeah, i think their argument here is that what the american rescue plan did was to put the economy in such a strong position, even if it generated perhaps a little bit of inflation, as they argue, not necessarily responsible for the whole thing, but that it's put the economy in a strong position and so therefore it can weather any downturn that's to come. so that's really the argument that they make but certainly republicans, as you mentioned, have been hammering democrats on rising prices over and over and over

again. and now as we've seen sort of gas prices decline, start to moderate a little bit, that message is really resonating with voters because they're not necessarily seeing the relief that they hoped they would >> a lot of money flowed into the economy via the fed, number one, and via fiscal policy that was -- during the pandemic at least rather more bipartisan than we're accustomed to but at any rate be that as it may, thank you, ylan, very much. ylan mui reporting that does it for "the exchange." i'm going to join mill friend contessa on "power lunch," which starts right now when & welcome to "power lunch. i'm contessa brewer. here's what's ahead. is apple recessionproof? it's a key question. we may get answers when the company reports earnings this afternoon. and critical to this is whether the iphone's super cycle can continue as the economy slows. plus, calling a bottom past bear markets show we're not there yet.