on overtime today. >> all right thank you for that steve weis, by the way, chose alphabet for you it's up 3% before he had to get out of here for a meeting. farmer jim >> boeing. you can follow price or follow what the company is doing. if you sold on wednesday on price, that was the wrong thing. and there's an investor meeting coming up on tuesday >> all right good weekend, everybody. i'll see you in overtime t"the exchange" is now. >> scott, thank you very much. welcome, everybody, to "the exchange." i'm tyler mathisen stocks are higher today. the dow up 5% this week, 14% this month that is its best month in 46 years. but as the market turns its attention from earnings to the fed, can this rally continue president biden thought he had a deal to avoid a railroad strike, but a second union now rejecting that deal, making a strike a very real possibility and a very real threat to the keconomy. plus, recession fears have sent

people into health care stocks that sector up 9% this month we will have three buys and a bail to keep your portfolio healthy. but we begin with seema mody on the rally. hi, seema. >> pretty strong day, tyler. stocks are on track to end the week higher, but we still have three hours left in trade. take a look at the screen, dow jones industrial near the highs of the day, up 700 points. s&p 500 up 74. the nasdaq seeing over a 2% gain thanks to what we're seeing with shares of apple. but there has been this active debate around growth versus cyclical sectors like the industrials. just take a look at alphabet first, we start with tech, on track for its worst week since mid-september. names like meta, microsoft, all sitting on sizable blosses for the week compare that to what we're seeing in the industrial space caterpillar on track for its best week and month since july of 2009 following strong earnings you can see up 14.5% this week honeywell, up 11%. you clearly have seen this

outperformance industrials on average have been growing their profits in the third quarter, up 19%. compare that to technology where profits have fallen by around 1.2% and when it comes to valuation, industrials trading at a discount to technology price-to-earnings ratio of 19 times technology, which has even seen a number of declines this month, still trading at 22 times forward earnings next week, we do get a number of earnings from amd, qualcomm, paypal, comments from the industrial space perhaps we'll get more clarity on this trade next week. tyler, back to you >> seema, thank you very much. meantime, rates retreating this week with the ten-year dipping below 4% that's the ten-year treasury market watching some key recessionary indicators along the yield curve, as well rick santelli at the cboe today with more. hey, rick. >> reporter: absolutely. at the cbo today and of course, we are cognizant of the fact that the vix index is on pace for a six-week low close and if we look at two-year for

the week, we could see what tyler is talking about we close at 447 last week. we're down seven basis points on a two-year on the week, even though it's up on the day. look at 10s and realize the 24 was a high-yield close for the cycle at 422 you could see that we are definitely -- excuse me, a 424 we closed friday at 422. we're down about 22 basis points as we flirt with 4%. and maybe the big story is, ten-year yields have dipped under 4, but the story about dollar index has everybody excited. has the dollar index turned? is that going to take pressure off of other economies, third-world economies, developing economies i can tell you this. we'll get a two-year versus the dollar index year-to-date. it's tracking almost 1-to-1. it makes sense the dollar strength has been on the fed and the two-year follows the fed. but as you look at august 1st, pairing the dollars with the tens, you see divergence there the divergence is, the dollar is

going down, but ten-year rates are going up many are reading, the dollar is what you're supposed to pay attention to and it will turn the ten-year down. and if that is the case, maybe it really lends some credibility to the three-month versus ten-year three sessions in a row it's been inverted. it's minus 7 now it hasn't closed with this type of inversion since right around march of 2020 for covid. and the t-bills are marching right along every week with their auctions and going higher right with the fed but the ten-year is marching to a lot of different issues, not the least of which potential recession in europe and slowing here does the aversion mean six months to 14 months we'll have a recession? i can't tell you that for sure, but what i can tell you is this spread has a good track record tyler, back to you >> let's talk about that dollar. why does the dollar lead the ten-year down? you said that, you said it's really important explain to me why? >> because if we're considering the fact that we're all trying

to hand icap when the fed is going to take its foot off the brake a bit, the dollar index has a global following and it has a need funding for dollar-denominated debt across the globe puts huge demand there so see the demand slacking a bit gives us a global view of the impression that investors have, and that impression may be directly tide to what the fed may do in 2023 >> very interesting, rick santelli, thank you, as always good to see you. and good to see you where the action is out there. we appreciate it all right, so with leadership change happening in the market, bond yields slipping a bit, recession signals flashing, and the busiest week of earnings still ahead, where to put your money to work. joining us now, andy capran, co-chief investment officer at regent atlantic. good to see you. i would like to get you to react what rick was talking about there with respect to bonds and the dollar but you are also starting to see some of what you would call

green shoots with respect to a slowing of inflation where are these shoots >> sure, so when you think about inflation, when you think about where prices are, we're starting to see green shoots in particular in some of the things that grove inflation higher over course of the past year. look at gasoline, down significantly from highs hit early in the summer. look at things like used car prices one of the first harbingers of supply chain shortages, shortages of actual physical goods to buy, now turning the quarter, solidly going in a negative direction so things are improving, it's just going to take a while to actually read that through into the headline cpi that we all focus on once a month. >> i assume you would agree that the fed is not immune to noticing these kinds of changes. do you that that means that either their actions or the words that accompany them might be a little different come next week >> i think they might start to

temper the pace as we approach their terminal rate. we have not operated in an environment with inflation rates this high and this unpredictable since at least 40 years ago. so the fed, the fed knows almost as little as the rest of us do they need to observe the data, absorb it, adjust for it but the most important thing that the fed needs to do is rebuild their credibility. they made a huge mistake in 2021 in my opinion by using the word transitory they've been walking that back over the course of the past year that means in my view that the fed is more likely to overshoot rather than to undershoot. and it's a good thing for inflation, that may be a dangerous thing for markets, although earnings season so far is pretty supportive of the -- >> the fed certainly has spent a lot of the last year dining on that word, "transitory." technology has had a very lumpy week what do you expect as it moves into the next weeks, towards the end of the year? >> sure, so i think tech stocks, i think, growth in general is in a dangerous part of the market rising interest rates do not do

it any favors. investors focusing on free cash flow growth and profitability doesn't do most of the tech sector any favors. this is a challenging environment to be a technology company or on the growth side of the ledger so, what should you focus on instead as an investor in my opinion, there are still legs in the value trade. the value trade is attractive for -- in one case, because these companies tend to be more stable, generated with free cash flow, and this environment is supporting their ability to do so case in point, ford. ford is not a company that you would generally want to buy if you're worried about a recession or a slowdown in the economy but this time, i believe it's different. because over the course of the past 12 months plus, they have not been able to produce enough cars to sell to people that's supported profit margins, as some of the supply chain kinks start to work their way out, they'll be able to grow volumes to offset lower profit margins going into recession this recession will not be like normal, in my opinion, and it could actually support normally

cyclical companies like ford >> that's sort of a classic cyclical, a couple of others, johnson & johnson, and black rock >> sure, johnson & johnson stands out as a company with a stable business model. something that is diversified across pharmaceuticals, medical devices, consumer brands and a catalyst for it to start to perform better is actually a planned splitup between some of its divisions. this could reinvigorate some of those businesses, make them focus more on growth in addition to just stable profitability last one i'll point out is black rock black rock is tied to asset values that's important, plaque rock also experiences something that most do not, which is inflows even when the market is down most asset managers lose assets, not just to market values falling, but also to investors abandoning ship. that's not the case with black rock they experience inflows on a secular basis, because of their dominance in the index fund trade. >> index funds and i assume retirement accounts, as well,

where the money is just coming in month after month, week after week thank you very much, andy kapyrin, have a good weekend meantime, the elon musk era at twitter is in full swing, barely 24 hours into full swing. musk sending out a cryptic tweet overnight -- does he send out any other kind -- saying "the bird is freed," in an apparent re reference to the takeover being completed. so is this the end of the social media saga or merely the beginning of a new chapter julia boorstin here with a look at twitter turning the page. julia? >> well, tyler, elon musk faces a range of challenges, particularly surrounding his commitment to being what he calls a free speech absolutist that has prompted some concerns that loosening guardrails on twitter could mean a surge of hate speech and misinformation there are three groups of people that he has to deal with right now. first, there's the question of

how will twitter retain its advertisers. musk has looked to reassure them, saying that the platform cannot become a, quote, free-for-all hellscape, suggesting that users should be able to control the safety of the tweets they see. second, employees, reportedly hundreds of them, have left the company in the past couple of months amid uncertainty and reports that musk was going to fire 75% of twitter's staff. musk is meeting with those employees today. and third, musk needs to stem the departure of so-called heavy tweeters a reuters report shows that the people that post most frequently on the platform are starting to leave. musk has set out some very ambitious goals, including quintupling revenue and users to 1 billion by 2028. but if musk is going to succeed with those goals and take twitter public within the next five years, which he has said is his goal, he does have quite a bit of work to do.

tyl tyler? >> julia, i couldn't notice last night that all of the people from the executive suite who have been lopped off as mr. musk comes in, your colleague and our friend deirdre bosa has just reported that all of the data engineers at twitter have either left or been laid off. what's left of his bench >> well, look, this is a company that had about 7,500 employees until recently you know, hundreds of them have left the question is whether he's going to really dramatically slim down that employee base from the -- in terms of the executive team we do know that ned siegel, the cfo and the ceo as well as other people in those key senior roles have been fired. now, the question is, how or whether most replaces them remember that musk is also running a bunch of other companies, so there's been some speculation that he might bring someone in to run the day-to-day twitter instead of trying to be

the ceo of many companies all at the same time. >> all right always a good story. elon musk, twitter, the whole thing. it's been playing out for a long time we'll see what he does with it and really, the needle-to-thread here, it seems to me, julia, is keeping the place a place where people feel comfortable hanging out. fair point >> and advertisers and advertisers. remember, you need advertisers to feel like it's a safe space for their brand to be on the platform and he might want to open the floodgates to free speech, but advertisers want to make sure that their brand is not associated with hate speech. >> yeah. free speech is a glorious thing, but it can also turn to hate speech sometimes all right, julia, thanks appreciate it. good to see you. coming up, five days until the fed's decision on interest rates with more scrutiny piling up on the central bank, how can chair powell thread the needle, there's that phrase again, between fighting inflation and pull employment. david nessel will join us next

plus, the busy qiest week of earnings season on deck with a number of health care companies among the headliners. we'll hone in on the space with a special edoifgsition of three and a bail "the exchange" returns after this zero-commission trades for online u.s. stocks and etfs. and a commitment to get you the best price on every trade, which saved investors over $1.5 billion last year. that's decision tech. only from fidelity. the new iphone 14 pro is amazing. the camera is incredible. and you'll get our best deal. nice, but i can't accept it. unless every business gets the best deal. on every iphone. uh, actually... we already do that. the plumber with the ascot! big bjorn, little bjorn, too! the caterer who really cares. every business should get the deal! we make a good team. every business gets at&t's best deals on every iphone.

including up to $800 off iphone 14 pro. (♪ ♪) our internet isn't ideal. my dad made the brillant move to get us t-mobile home internet. -which... we have to share our signal with the entire neighborhood. yeah, now we do some weird things to get our speeds.

well... i'm up. -c'mon kids. this sucks. well if you just switch maybe you don't have to be vampires. whoa... -okay, yikes. oh sorry, i wasn't thinking. we, uh, don't really use the v word. that's kind of insensitive. we prefer pro-lunar. yes, much better. welcome back to "the exchange," everybody

the market conversation could change from results to rates with the fed decision coming out on wednesday of next week. another 75 basis points, three quarters of 1% hike is already priced in, basically so the key for investors will be the commentary mr. powell's tone. our next guest says powell stands at the more hawkish end of the committee and disagreements may soon break out about the pace of rate hikes joining us is david wessel with the brookings institution. david, always great to have you with us. is the fed starting to see what it wants to see? >> absolutely. the third quarter gdp report, although looking in the rearview mirror, did suggest that the fed's rate hikes are having the desired effect although the gdp did increase to 2.6% annual rate that was mostly because of trade. domestic spending was slow and of course, housing is taking just an enormous hit and inflation didn't get any worse.

so i think that it's beginning to go in the fed's direction, but it's far too early for them to declare victory >> when you look at the numbers and the forecast from amazon, you're looking at a consumer that clearly seems to be feeling a pinch. a pinch of higher costs, a pinch of higher rates, and maybe a pinch of a slowing economy or more -- let me not say a slowing economy, because that's not what the data show, but perhaps some anxiety about what lies ahead. >> well, i think that most of the forecasters, economic forecasters, expect fourth quarter growth to be slow, substantially slower than the third quarter. and all of these reports from companies like amazon, facebook, all suggest that they, too, are expecting things to kind of soften and that's what you would expect we were running a pretty hot economy, it got too hot for the fed's tastes, they raised interest rates, the market reacted. sentiment among businesspeople and customers reacted.

so it's working out according to the fed's game plan. the question is, when will they know that they've done enough to slow the economy and will they be able to take a break soon or do they have to keep going in order to keep inflation expectations from getting embedded in the consumer -- >> i remember months ago, david kelly, whom you know very well, said that the risk of the fed is that they do too much, too late, for too long >> i think that -- i think that's right i believe that jay powell, the fed chair, is determined not to go down in history as the fed chair who undid all the progress that his predecessors had made against inflation. so it wasn't that hard when you have 3.5% unemployment and 8% inflation and interest rates are at zero to say, well, they have to go up the question is, how much do they have to go up and how -- at what point does the fed say, okay, we did a lot, monetary policy works with a long and variable lag maybe we should take a pause

here and see how the economy is performing i think we're getting close to that level i expect i'll raise rates again in december, but beyond that, we'll see some tension, as you suggested at the beginning, between patient people at the fed that want to wait and see what happens to inflation and hawkish people who will say, at any cost, toef break the back of inflation. >> talk to me about political pressure there may be incipient political pressure on the fed at some point to say, hey, wait a minute, you guys are slowing this if we go into a recession, a real recession, you're slowing the economy too much you've got to back off >> right so the fed has had incredibly strong support from congress for the past couple of years, particularly during the trump era where the president was beating him over the head with an anvil, if you can beat someone over the head with an anvil. until recently, the congress has been pretty quiet. as rates go up, as mortgage rates go to 7%, as people start

to expect a recession in 2023, you're going to see some noise from congress. i think the fed is used to this, but it could become unpleasant the democrats have a bit of a problem because they can't say that the fed should have tightened sooner because of the american rescue plan, because they argued that the american rescue plan wasn't inflationary. and then they passed the other spending bill which they call the inflation reduction act. they're in a little bit of an awkward position, but as you know, that never stopped people from hitting if people worry about a recession, they'll get blamed. >> as you look at the voting members of the open market committee, who, if you -- after off the top of your head, i know this is tough. who is at that more hawkish end of the spectrum with chair powell who is in the middle, who is --

>> you can see -- i can't quite remember who's on the voting roster next year, but if you look at all the presidents, you can see that loretta mester of the cleveland fed tends to be on the hawkish side and you can see that mary daly at the san francisco fed, among others, charlie evans who goes off the committee soon, are people who might be more to wait i think the people to really watch are lael brainerd, the vice chair, and the two new appointees to the board of governors, phil jefferson and lisa cook. we know that in general, lael brainerd has tended to be on the dovish side. of course, like all the fed members -- the fmoc members, they're hawkish on inflation it's become the priority but i would n't be surprised to see her quietly separate from the chairman and we don't know much about what lisa cook and phil jefferson think about monetary policy they're new to the board and have been basically reciting party line

so i can see like in january, february, march next year, some of the biden appointees may begin to get a little antsy about the pace of rate increases. >> very interesting. david. no one can take us in the room quite the way you can. thanks so much >> you're welcome. >> david wessel with the brookings institution. still ahead, the threat of a rail strike is back after a second union rejected a tentative agreement. we're going to look at what is at stake and the impact it could have on the already-fragile supply chain and as we aide to a break, take a look at the dow heat map look at that there's only one in the red, only one -- excuse me, only one in the red, everything else in the green. intel, apple, verizon leading the blue chips dow inc., the only one tt hais negative how about that, in the dow, it's dow. "the exchange" is back after this ur financial picture. with the right balance of risk and reward. so you can enjoy more of...this.

this is the planning effect. ♪ ♪ so you can enjoy more of...this. connecting to opportunity is just part of the hustle. ♪ ♪ opportunity is using data to create a competitive advantage. ♪ ♪ it's raising capital that helps companies change the world. it's making complicated financial concepts seem simple. opportunity is making the dream of home ownership a reality... ♪ ♪ ...writing new rules and redefining the game... ...and driving the world forward to a greener energy future. (applause) ♪ ♪ opportunity is setting a goal... ...and charting a course to get there. sometimes the only thing standing between you and opportunity... ...is someone who can make the connection.

at ice, we connect people to opportunity. at humana we believe your healthcare should evolve with you and part of that evolution means choosing the right medicare plan for you. humana can help. with original medicare you are covered for hospital stays and doctor office visits but you'll have to pay a deductible for each. a medicare supplement plan can cover your deductibles and coinsurance but you may pay higher premiums and still not get prescription drug coverage. but with an all-in-one humana medicare advantage plan you could get all that coverage plus part d prescription drug benefits. with no copays or deductibles on tier 1 prescriptions. you get all this coverage for as low as a zero-dollar monthly plan premium in many areas. humana has a large network of doctors and hospitals. so call or go online today and get your free decision guide. discover how an all-in-one humana medicare advantage plan could save you money. humana,

a more human way to healthcare. . welcome back to "the exchange," everybody markets right now very close to their highs. the dow high was 762, right now, 2.3% higher, ending a spectacular week ending a month for the record books. here's some of the movers this hour a few sectors seeing names hitting all-time highs in staples. you've got your general mills and hershey and pepsi. in energy, you have chevron and exxon, both reporting strong results this morning let's check in on two of the bigger stories of the day. amazon continues to be deep in the red, but off the lows we saw in the after-hours trading when the stock collapsed by some 20%. apple continues to prove the best in breed, seeing a nice jump as you see right there. there it is up 8%, $12 at

$156.80. earnings beat estimates. sales did come in a little softer than expected in some key areas. how about pinterest, soaring as it blows past earnings and guides higher. there you see it up almost 7, 8% at 23.61 so what's not working? da vita. it was hurt as well by some labor pressure right now, it is down 28%. ouch seema mody has a cnbc news update hi, seema. >> i sure do good afternoon, tyler. the intruder who broke into house speaker nancy pelosi's home shouted "where is nancy" before attacking her husband, paul pelosi, with a hammer this is according to nbc news. the motive for the break-in and attack remainss unclear. flu season is off to a bad start. the cdc has confirmed nearly 900,000 flu cases and at least

360 flu-related deaths health officials are urging everyone over 6 months of age to get their annual flu shot. in japan, the government has unveiled a huge $200 billion economic stimulus program. prime minister kishida says it should boost gdp by 4.6%, this as the u.s. are tightening monetary policy to battle inflation. the plan also includes big subsidies. on the news, much more on the pelosi attack and the growing number of attacks on politicians and government officials as of late that's tonight at 7:00 p.m. eastern. >> seema, thanks very much health care has far outperformed the broader market this year, but there are winners and losers in the sector, and we have three buys and one bail to tell you about that's the bail you're looking at gina sanchez says it continues to fade with the pandemic. the trade is next. be right back.

we planned well for retirement, but i wish we had more cash. you think those two have any idea? that they can sell their life insurance policy for cash? so they're basically sitting on a goldmine? i don't think they have a clue. that's crazy! well, not everyone knows coventry's helped thousands of people sell their policies for cash. even term policies. i can't believe they're just sitting up there! sitting on all this cash. if you own a life insurance policy of $100,000 or more, you can sell all or part of it to coventry. even a term policy. for cash,

or a combination of cash and coverage, with no future premiums. someone needs to tell them, that they're sitting on a goldmine, and you have no idea! hey, guys! you're sitting on a goldmine! come on, guys! do you hear that? i don't hear anything anymore. find out if you're sitting on a goldmine. call coventry direct today at the number on your screen, or visit coventrydirect.com.

welcome back, everybody. another sign of old economy stocks coming back in vogue for investors, health care one of the better performers of late.

the health care etf ticker xlv on pace for its best week since june, up more than 4%. many of these names trading at all-time highs and also reporting earnings next week so where are the buys? and what's one name to stay away from, let's be joined by gina sanchez. can three buys and a bail. let's start with one of the buys, and that would be abbvie >> yeah. if you look at the three sectors that have done really well, one of those is biotech and abbvie has been leading that charge and the performance this year has been solid, because it has a stellar lineup of drugs that it is continuing to benefit from. there are still questions about what's going to happen when

hummera goes generic, the pipeline is very strong. it's a stock we've owned for a while and continuing to perform. >> next buy is eli lilly, shares hitting an all-time high in today's trading and set to report third quarter results tuesday before the pail. this is your pharma play, gina, and it's doing well, may even have bprosecutor prospects next year tell us about it >> absolutely. this is actually one where the analysts have been revising down upcomings, because it's a tough -- it's been a tough quarter. this is the first full quarter when their lug cancer drug has had to kind of compete if the generation market, but if you look next year, one of the biggest blockbuster drugs that's coming out on the market is the big weight loss drug that's coming up against ozempic and the other weight loss drugs. and everyone is expecting the tests have been extraordinary. and these are very, very profitable drugs

so, the expectations are really, really strong, even for next year and they've already done really well this year >> and all-time high wecht been able to say that very often about many stocks in recent months. final buy is humana, also hitting an all-time high today and reports before the pbell on wednesday. you like that costs are down, response to marketing is up and the outlook is positive. these are three good things. >> they absolutely are this is one where pandemic-related costswere really a drag on their profitability. and then fact that they were able to sell their hospice unit and their personal care unit is also going to benefit, you know, their outlook. and this is one we've owned for a while, as well managed care is a space that as we continue to see, and, you know, as we continue to see an aging population, health care matters. and this is one of those things that doesn't go away, even if

you have a recession so we've been pretty pleased with its performance >> and those are the buys. here is one to bail on it is moderna. you say vaccine exhaustion is a big reason to avoid this stock the bloom has gone off that one, gina >> yeah. if you look at the numbers, i saw a stat just this morning, only 7 million out of the 70 million vaccines ordered have been administered. people are getting vaccine exhaustion people are certainly exhausted by the concept of the pandemic, and, you know, if you look kind of farther out, they don't yet have a way to transition into a more profitable set of drugs, if not for the fact that merck opted into their mrna cancer vaccine, they probably would have very few prospects and analysts have just been destroying the revisions and expectations for this stock. it has been a terrible performer this year.

and yeah, as you said, the bloom has dgone off >> what do you make of this powerful october rally we've seen is it a telltale of the future is it a bear market bounce what >> you know, i think that the notion of a fed pivot is out there just enough. we started to see some signs of weakness in the market and in the economy that yub, i think investors are hoping would keep the fed from continuing forward. the challenge is, is that the fed doesn't look like it's going to stop. and if the fed doesn't stop, valuations have to continue to get revised down, as that short-term rate goes up. and so this could be a little bit of a dead cat bounce if we're not careful. >> all right we'll careful. gina, thanks, appreciate it. coming up, ukraine president

volodymyr zelenskyy addressing the yale school of management. our own kayla tausche was there and got a chance to speak with him. she joins us next with his comments as russia's rhetoric ramps up the exchange is back in two. what do you mean? these straps are mind-blowing! they collect hundreds of data points like hrv and rem sleep, so you know all you need for recovery. and you are? i'm an investor...in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to... nasdaq 100 innovations like... wearable training optimization tech. uh, how long are you... i'm done. i'm okay. we're told that success is all about making it on your own. the truth is... need some help? c,mon, get in. nothing great gets done alone. that's why there's shopify. with shopify, you can set up your online store; you can sell on social media; or, you can sell

in person, with our point of sale system. it doesn't have to be lonely at the top. join the millions to find success - on their own terms. start your journey with a free trial today. wait, i don't do tai chi. i don't do most of the things you see in medicare health insurance commercials. cut! all the ads look the same because the insurance companies all see us the same. humana is different. they get to know you and listen to what you need. they have all-in-one humana medicare advantage plans with medical and prescription drug coverage. most plans include vision, hearing and dental for as low as a $0 monthly plan premium in many areas. humana has a large network, and they offer ppo options for even more flexibility. members saved an average of $9600 a year on prescription drugs. most plans include a yearly allowance for over-the-counter items. you can get tier 1 prescriptions with no co-pays or deductibles. call humana now to speak to a licensed sales agent. they'll treat you like

a real person whether you actually go speed walking, or not. better care begins with listening. humana, a more human way to healthcare. welcome back, everybody. ukrainian president volodymyr zelenskyy addressing the yale school of management virtually today. kayla tausche was in the room and joins us from new haven, connecticut, with what he had to say. >> president zelenskyy is trying to maintain global awareness of exactly what is happening inside his country as the war with russia appears poised to enter its second year. he's previously made impassioned plea for the war to end by winter and increasingly progressive democrats, public figures like elon musk are trying to advise hem on how he should end it. today i asked president zelenskyy directly how he sees it playing out

>> at this point, will the war end with a battle or a negotiation and when >> it's a complex thing because it depends on multiple factors we've shown our resilience as the people we continue, we are motivated by being ukrainians, by being the citizens of this country, from different walks of life, from differentnationalities, and we defend what we have. this is what depends on us this is our end target and we are going there. it is also very much dependent on our partners. >> reporter: speaking of partners, two lawmakers who both sit on the board famembers, and

senator graham called for a new aid package, and senator blumenthal said he would support such a package, and even suggested that the u.s. should redirect patriot missile systems that were previously sent to saudi arabia to ukraine instead. and to that, president zelenskyy said that he would welcome that, and he said that with a laugh. but he said what the country needs most in any next package is an aerial defense system. he said that's what will allow ukrainian civilians to come back home to the country, will allow people to attend school and university and go back to work and he said that was the biggest priority since day one and remains the biggest priority today. he was asked by a ukrainian student in the audience what the rebuilding process looks like and he said it's going to depend on future generations. guys, back to you. >> kayla, when he says aerial defense, you can define that in many ways. patriot missiles are a form of aerial defense, but i assume what he's talking about are

actual aircraft and/or drones that would be able to not only form a defensive function, but an offensive fupnction >> it is clear that nato allies have said from the dpbeginning that they will not be providing any type of aircraft that would be seen as an offensive weapon they have tried to make that distinction from the very beginning. but president zelenskyy bemoaned the thousands of missiles that rained down on his country with some regularity and said that they need to be able to shoot down those missiles and it is their own missile defense systems like the ones you mentioned that will be of the utmost important, tyler. >> was there any discussion in the room or with president zelenskyy about putin's speech yesterday where he once again went off after the west and asserted that ukrainian people and russian peoples are fundamentally one in the same. >> reporter: tyler, that speech came up in one of the questions. and while president zelenskyy didn't address that specifically, i did ask him

about mr. putin. zelenskyy has made comments about what a course of negotiation would look like and has said that he would not be willing at this point to negotiate directly with vladimir pu putin. he would negotiate through some other channels, but so far, he does not know what that looks like i asked him, is he calling for regime change? does he think that the west should be trying to remove mr. putin? and he wouldn't say yes, but he did say that it is increasingly difficult to know which directives and which words are coming from mr. putin directly and which are coming from his surrogates or his directives, but certainly, he seems frustrated with the pro prcess and appeared feel that the negotiations were not going in a productive manner. >> kayla tausche, thanks very much reporting from new haven this afternoon. coming up, $2 billion. that's how much a railroad strike would cost in trade per day. and it could be right around the corner the association of american

railroad's ceo on what's next for negotiations after this quick break. as we head to the break, here's a quick on the markets. stocks, session highs now across the board. 768, 2.4% for the dow, 2.4%, as well, for nasdaq

well, the biden administration touting its economic victories in an effort to boost democrats ahead of the midterms, but there are growing headwinds facing the 11th hour rail deal that was struck last month. a second union now, the brotherhood of railroad signalmen rejected the agreement on wednesday 12 unions are voting on the deal, representing 115,000 total workers and all 12 need to ratify an agreement to keep freight moving but first -- the first rejection back on october 10th and that union strike could come as early as november 19th and no matter the size of the group, any strike would halt trains and cost an estimated $2 billion in trade per day as 40% of u.s. long haul freight travels by rail. it would also impact the operations of csx, northern

southern, berkshire hathaway, all class 1 railroads that are currently at the bargaining table. can a strike be avoided? let's bring in ian jeffries, president and ceo of the american association of railroads. it appears to me that two of the required unions have said "no" to this deal what is the stumbling block and how can it get resolved? >> good afternoon, tyler first and foremost, i want to thank the employees across the freight rail industry who show up day in and day out. it's a highly dedicated, committed workforce, and they should be commended for the job that they do to your point, we've had six unions ratify contracts to date. we have four that are going to be going out for ratification in the coming weeks, and we have two that initially did not ratify, but we're working on a path forward to ensure that we do not have a work stoppage and that most importantly, our employees get the well-deserved

pay increases and top-tier health care that the package offers >> can you tell us what the sticking points are with those two unions that you have voted down i assume that that may be similar or may be different. >> i don't want to get into negotiations in the public, but i can tell you that the tentative agreements that are on the table are based on a well-thought-out and comprehensively developed framework that a panel of experts appointed by president biden assembled. and the railroads stand by those frameworks and the agreements that are based on those frameworks we're pleased that six unions have ratified, as well, and we're committed to making sure that the rest of the unions get across the finish line, because at the end of the day, this is important to make sure our employees are well compensated, get the pay raises they deserve. this package would offer the highest pay raises in over 50 years. and most importantly, we need to keep the economy moving.

all stakeholders are focused on ensuring that continuity in the rail system, and making sure that we're continuing to support the economy. >> committed to a solution is one thing, hopeful would be another. are you hopeful? >> i'm hopeful and we're exited. all stakeholders are focused on ensuring that we we're committed. all stakeholders are focused on ensure that we get this across the finish line. a work stoppage is not in anyone's interest. it's not in our employees' interest or railroads' interest or customers interest or administration interest. all stakeholders are focused on the goal of making sure we come to fruition on a positive outcome for all 12 of our unions. >> let me ask a dumb but critical question, if they ratify and don't go on strike could you work through or not? >> as you mentioned in your opening, a work stoppage of any kind could have an economic

impact of up to $2 billion a day, and that's whether you have one union stopping work or multiple so that's why it's so important that we make sure that all 12 unions get to a place and that's our goal, that's our focus. >> what are the key daites we should be looking for here are negotiations going on now with you representing the railroads or the unions? what are the key dates to look for? >> all parties continue to talk throughout this process and that's an important point to remember right now, the two unions whose initial ratifications did not pass, we're going to continue a cooling off period with them, maintaining the status quo of operations, at least up through november 19th, and as i said, we have four additional unions that are going to be going out for ratification in the coming weeks as well and so we've got plenty of time to work through this and

that's what we'll do. >> do you expect that those four unions that will be voted on 5th, 14th, 21st of november are likely to approve the deal or not? >> well, i'm confident we're going to get these across the finish line. at the end of the day, most important thing is for our employees to get the wage increases that they deserve. these are significant wage increases. these are good jobs that are compensated in the top 10% of any sector across the economy and they should be rewarded as such that's our focus making sure our employees get this historic wage increase, maintaining first in class health care and ensuring that we can keep serving our customers across the country. >> were you surprised the brs voted down the deal yesterday? >> i think in any labor negotiation you have twists and turns that take place and nothing is ever as easy as you hope it might be and we're disappointed, of course, but we are pleased that we've had half

of our unions ratified and make sure the rest get across the finish line. >> thank you so much for your time today we appreciate it. >> my pleasure, thank you for having me. >> ian jefferies, appreciate your time. coming up, this restaurant stock is down more than 5% this week d despite strong comps is this about to get hit by a spending slowdown. we'll talk about that next here's a check on the markets. stocks are at session highs. look at the dow up another 100 points or so pressing in on 800 2.5% higher or thereabouts nasdaq up by 2.4%. - [narrator] if your business kept on employees through the pandemic, getrefunds.com can qualify you for a payroll tax refund of up to $26,000 per employee, even if you got ppp. and all it takes is eight minutes to find out. then we'll work with you to fill out your forms and submit the application. that easy.

getrefunds.com has helped businesses like yours claim over $1 billion in payroll tax refunds. but it's only available for a limited time. go to getrefunds.com powered by innovation refunds. and i'm going to tell you about exciting medicare advantage plans that can provide broad coverage and still may save you money on monthly premiums and prescription drugs. with original medicare you are covered for hospital stays and doctor office visits but you have to meet a deductible for each, and then you're still responsible for 20% of the cost. next, let's look at a medicare supplement plan. as you can see, they cover the same things as original medicare, and they also cover

your medicare deductibles and coinsurance. but they often have higher monthly premiums and no prescription drug coverage. now, let's take a look at humana's medicare advantage plans. with a humana medicare advantage plan, hospitals stays, doctor office visits and your original medicare deductibles are covered. and, of course, most humana medicare advantage plans include prescription drug coverage. with no copays or deductibles on tier 1 prescriptions, and zero dollars for routine vaccines, including shingles, at in-network retail pharmacies. in fact, in 2021, humana medicare advantage prescription drug plan members saved an estimated $9,600 on average on their prescription costs. most humana medicare advantage plans have coverage for vision and hearing. and dental coverage that includes two free cleanings a year, plus dentures, crowns, fillings and more! most humana medicare advantage plans include a silver sneakers fitness program at no extra

cost. you get all of this for as low as a zero-dollar monthly plan premium in many areas; and your doctor and hospital may already be a part of humana's large network. there is no obligation, so call the number on your screen right now to see if your doctor is in our network; to find out if you could save on your prescriptions, and to get our free decision guide. humana, a more human way to healthcare. welcome back want to get one more thing in before we go and that would be

the restaurant stocks. mcdonald's and chipotle, there's an "e" missing there, chipotle both reported this week, and cmg is the mystery chart pippa stevens joins us with what is driving the difference and more restaurant names reporting next week, whether more divergence is ahead. >> that's right. we heard from chipotle and mcdonald's this week both of which have raised prices to counteract commodity and labor costs. chipotle hiked menu prices in august for the third time in the last 15 months and mcdonald's said the third quarter prices were up 10% year over year consumers are more or less buying the price hikes chipotle and mcdonald's beat same-store sales forecast during q3 wischich is the key metric t work mcdonald's noted it's seeing some trade down in terms of customers opting for cheaper items.

looking forward, though, the picture becomes less clear chipotle ceo brian nichols said there's a widening of trends by income levels with lower income consumers further reducing frequent si and the company expects a mild to moderate recession in the u.s. with a potentially deeper and longer one in europe. we'll hear more about the health of the consumer next week with more earnings on deck from different types of restaurant companies like cheesecake factory and brinker, starbucks and papa john's will report as restaurant brands international and taco bell. there's food on the men knew for next week. >> let's talk about whether there's a pullback in consumer spending, any indication of what type will perform the best, you would think the ones that would cater towards a lower income

individual on the other hand the people who got money would be immune from worrying about their spending. >> two parts of this equation and to your first point it's all about trade down in times of pullback we see customers moving from the slightly higher end, the full service restaurants, to more of the quick service, fast casual names, but then to your point those companies also cater to typically lower income consumers and so that was what mcdonald's was noting, that they are starting to see some customers trade down on the men knew and g -- men knew cheaper items that is the key thing to look at if we look back in 2008 inflation wasn't as high and also that was before a lot of these companies had developed their digital presence and their rewards programs and so that's been a really big driver

recently so while we can look back to try and again how customers might respond with prices continuing to surge, a lot remains to be seen. >> we had wing stop on yesterday, 60% of the business is digital, bet it's almost the same for chipotle these days i don't know that. pippa, thanks very much. we appreciate it that does it for "the exchange." i'm going to join contessa brewer on "power lunch" which starts right now welcome to "power lunch. i'm contessa brewer. here's what's ahead pap friday rally. wall street investors cheering data that points to slowing inflation and a solid consumer does that raise the stakes for the fed's upcoming meeting apple the lone star of the tech, punctuating $3.6 trillion in market cap lost in a single