credit spreads are not as tight as they were back then the point is, yeah, at some point they're going to be unhappy if the market gets overexcited. i'm not clear we're there yet. >> what do we say, we had the best october ever? >> best month. >> since '76 best october for the dow. >> we have a day left. >> have a great weekend. all of you as well "fast money" is now. >> right now on "fast," a friday frenzy stocks rallying to close out the week and the dow is on pace for its best month in more than four decades. so, with big tech earnings in the rear view and fed meeting in focus, what can we expect as we kick off a new week? plus, it is not just the fed on deck next week pharma, semis, could consumer stocks getting ready for earnings how should you plan the names ahead of their reports from defense to offense. the stock that just put in its longest winning streak since 1998 and why it could go even higher from here i'm sara eisen in for melissa lee tonight. this is "fast money" live from

the nasdaq market site in the heart of times square, new york city on the desk tonight, tim seymour, guy adami, steve grasso, courtney garcia. welcome, everyone. thank you for having me. we'll start with the markets monster rally. the dow jumping nearly 830 points to lock in its best week since may. it is on pace for its best month since 1976 and, get this, it is within a whisper of its best month since 1938 home guy adami remembers that. the s&p and the nasdaq also posting big gains today with the tech heavy index jumping as much as 3% at its highs of the session. apple, one of the big winners, jumping more than 7% and adding over $175 billion in one day to its market cap amazon dropped 7% after its disappointing earnings report. closed well off its lows of the day. with the fed meeting around the corner here, and way more earnings on deck, can the momentum continue? i'll start with you, tim, you were kind enough to join me

here. >> great to have you here. it is a pleasure to be sitting next to you. we have a dynamic of part of the driver earlier in the week was lower rates, lower dollar and those continue into the fed. we can talk fed until we're blue in the face. the fact that microsoft, google, amazon, meta, dropped doughnuts and the nasdaq is up 2% this week tells you about both where positioning was, where sentiment was, where seasonals are there is a lot of things going for the market right now we talked about it, guys hit some levels. there is even room for the s&p to go up to a 4150 area. you have a case where if you ask me that apple's numbers deserve the move they had today, no, they didn't and amazon probably doesn't deserve the downside you talk about the dow we talked about -- we pooh-poohed the dow jones industrial average the nasdaq and the semis underperformance to the s&p really still kind of continues and the breakout of the dow is something that while it is a

price weighted index, doesn't make a lot of sense to me. the stocks that make up the dow in terms of transports and industrials, but this value trade, we continue to see a changing of the guard. we continue to see energy working. we got a lot of energy, exxon will give us some numbers in a second some dynamics to tell us some parts of the weightings of the industries will change. >> we were talking about how good the dow would have been doing if exxon wasn't kicked out and salesforce didn't replace it a sign of the times. guy, you think the momentum continues? nothing changes sentiment like price. how is your sentiment right now? >> i'm glad you brought up that 1978 i was getting ready to turn 35, huge party -- >> 1938 i was saying you remember -- >> yeah, well, i remember that too. what do i think? if you go back, we talked about this on october 14th and monday the 17th we said the setup in terms of what we had seen the prior week looked hauntingly familiar to what we saw in the middle of june we all sort of posited that

4,000 was going to be the level we got to. that would represent about a 14% rally off the 3491 low and we haven't wavered from that. we say it all the time, the biggest rallies take place in bear markets we are in a bear market, i want to be clear. we talked about this but i think once it gets there and sort of line up probably with the fed or maybe the midterm elections, you sell it again. this to me looks like the setup june into august, now we're talking about october 13th into early november. >> i'm glad you brought up the midterm elections. voter sentiment has changed and it swung a lot lately toward republicans and potential republican control of the senate i do wonder if that has something to do with the better tone, with the bullishness, because the market narrative, that would be good, deadlocked government wouldn't be good for stocks grasso, what do you do >> yeah, so i have thought that the november elections were going to be a catalyst to see the market run into year end i'm a little shocked that the market decided to run prior to

those elections. i thought that was going to be the real bubble that really sent us off through december. but, if you look at what tim had said, talk about rates and the dollar, if you look at the chart of the dollar, it coincides inversely to the market. so if you think that the fed is going to ease, that, to me, seems as the first tim just mentioned, it seems too orchestrated for me. if we're talking about 50 bits versus 75 bits and that's the reason why we're going to rally, i think we're grasping at straws personally i think you're going to see the market sort of be a little tepid here, get up to the level that the guys are talking about, 41, 41, 50 i'm afraid we pulled forward that midterm election rally, to be honest.

>> there is a lot of talk about seasonals right now. seasonals and sentiment seem to be two big drivers besides the fact we have seen lower treasury yields and weaker dollar this week what do you make of it >> i think it is really kind a tale of two markets right now. you will see, which we have been talking about throughout this year, the longer duration assets were going to underperform this week it has been remarkable to see on days where your tech firms had horrible earnings and the overall markets continued to improve. it is showing how much some of the older school stocks are really holding up the markets. i think a lot of that will continue as we move forward, we're talking about the markets went up or down. there are certain parts of the economy that will continue to recover better than others and i think you want to make sure you stay in the companies that have the good cash flow, pricing power. all this being said, we're starting the world series tonight. every time the phillies have won previously led to a recession. this all could be for nothing. >> oh, no. >> are they going to win

>> one of the many reasons to not like the phillies. we'll leave it there congratulations. they have done very well here. >> who knew that correlation thank you, courtney. we have a bunch of earnings next week we have the fed meeting. 75 basis point hike seems to be priced in. the debate goes to december. we'll get earnings pfizer, amd, there is some consumer staples like hershey. >> i tell you what, if you look at staples as an allocation over the last six to eight weeks, went through a very difficult period after a significant outperformance period for all the reasons they should. returning cash, they have predictable cash flows, many food stocks in a world of inflation actually have a better top line so far they have been able to pass that along. we got great numbers out of that we have gotten great numbers out of the energy sector look at both internationally, royal dutch or over in europe, exxon today, the dynamics in terms of free cash flow, what they're doing to pay down balance sheet, what they're doing to buyback shares and what they're doing to pay out ratios that in many cases are north of

60%, these are the types of stocks that are working as we go into next week's earnings. this is the kind of environment where we have -- first of all, 3q outperformed. no question this has been better than expected. >> nontech. >> but, again, if you look at some of the tech sector where a pinterest where you have seen some of the companies that were much maligned based upon the multiple or the sense they were internet stocks, these are companies that are profitable >> i think the headline, grasso, as we both have known all along is that the dollar trumps earnings we learned that this week. even the biggest market cap weighted stocks. >> yeah. and the dollar and oil and the dollar and every other correlation, it is all about the dollar and whenever you see the temperament leaning towards maybe a dovish fed, you see the markets sort of trying to get its legs back underneath him tim has been rightfully so bullish on energy names.

i look at exxonmobil, they had -- it took them eight years to take out their old high from back in 2014 so it has been a picture perfect setup for energy and it has broken the correlation, the inverse -- the correlation to oil, but i think the energy song and dance is probably a little long in the tooth here because if they run so efficiently, it shouldn't have taken them this long to get here i think this is truly all about the dollar as you started off the question >> yeah. exxon, by the way, closing report high, up another 3%, now up 80% year to date. most of the biggest cap tech names held out strong to close out the week the chart master sees more pain ahead for the group. let's get to the charts with carter worth despite the big misses, carter, nasdaq closed the week positive. what do you see? >> that's right. thanks, sarah. it was a curious week, it was basically bad news on the

fundamental side for the companies and price action it shook off the bad results. so before we look at the charts, was it a good week or wasn't it for the nasdaq 100 nasdaq 100 was up 2% for the week, plus or minus. that's not bad the s&p was up 4 and russell 2000 up 6. so net net it was not a good week for these names and let's look at some charts and try to figure it out together the first here is just the s&p 500. what is key, of course, we know that we breached the june low, and we ricocheted back above that low you see the horizontal line. now, the second chart is a basket it is the top five stocks plotted equal weight names everyone knows apple, microsoft, google, amazon, tesla. representing about 20% of the s&p. and what we have here is we're right at the june low. so this group was holding up better it didn't breach the way the s&p did and yet of late the s&p is back above its june low and this

is sitting right on it and i think that is the problem. two more charts just for fun the first here of the two is a ratio chart. you're simply looking at the nasdaq 100's relative performance to the s&p and we have literally been tracking that up trend line perfectly and balancing to the penny, to the penny, to the penny and we breached that line to the downside. hold that thought and then look at the same chart, but all the way back to the dotcom era what we know is that only in the last 12 months was the nasdaq 100 able to recoup all of its relative losses to the dotcom peak, only to what, roll over and fail i think you want to remain underweight this area of the market. >> carter worth, thank you very much we'll see you shortly on "options action" which i can't wait for let's try this guy, do you agree with that premise? >> yes 100% because he basically said the same thing if you go back and

listen to him, he was bullish in the middle of june, he got bearish toward the beginning of august, that proved to be extraordinarily prescient. i'm with him this is a mirror image of what we saw, just happening faster. i'll say this since you brought it up. if this media thing doesn't work out, which you are a star, you would be an incredible bad assfx trader. >> well, thank you i don't know about that. thank you. i do love foreign exchange courtney, on tech, the charts as carter suggests not buying it. what about you >> yeah, i would agree there we definitely own tech we're not overweighting it currently. i think it will continue to underperform here and be under pressure as we're still in a higher interest rate environment, as rates start to come down, they're not going down to the level they were over the last two years i own it, but definitely not overweight. >> i say the ratios, if you look at the semis to the nasdaq too, also underperforming you had leadership this is important part we keep talking about the

dollar dollar is rear view mirror to me at this point. it is a tailwind we know so much about what has been priced into the dollar. we're hearing about it from multinationals now, but do you think the dollar has gone up another 10% against all the other currencys? >> 10% is a big move. >> it moved 20. >> the u.s. is still in better shape than everybody else and even if the fed takes it down a notch, everyone else is going to take it down even more. >> we could talk fx forever. >> we could. >> we should save that for another show. >> my dream job. thank you very much. coming up, believe it or not we have an even busier week of earnings ahead i gave you a taste we'll go through the names, how you should play these going into the most packed week of reports this quarter we'll break down the plays after this and then later on "options action," ensuring gains. we're laying out a trade on united healthcare that can help protect your portfolio for more volatility more "fast money" for you in two minutes. ♪ ♪ wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here! what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna.

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welcome back happy friday to "fast money. a lot of headliner stocks posting earnings this week wall street is gearing up for a busier week ahead with more than 30% of s&p 500 companies slated to report. we're talking airbnb, qualcomm, peloton, doordash, draft kings to name a few.

we thought what better time for a game of trade it or fade it. my first time, guys. we'll kick it off with amd, the chipmaker reports tuesday after the bell trade it or fade it? >> you always remember your first time i'm trading amd for sure down 60% from its all time high, trading at a midteens multiple lisa sue, great ceo, that intel quarter was not great. you saw the price reaction, amd's quarter is better. it goes higher >> they like the cost discipline on intel tim? >> i'll fade it. i think you have a dynamic where we have preliminary numbers, we know the client segment is going to be 16 or so percent weaker. i think it is something you continue to see. 25% over the last three months i think semis go lower. >> starbucks reporting thursday afternoon, steve what's your take >> you got to fade this one.

there is going to be a head winds from the headlines that we're seeing that's going to be a head wind for the stock. it is a risk for the stock i was constructive on the stock. it looked great bouncing off that may level, ran into a brick wall in september. the level that it ran into, sarah, in september, was the january 2020 high. it has since rolled over zero momentum in the name, it is not up for the month the month has been great for a lot of stocks, not for starbucks. fade it. >> why what is the problem here china? didn't apple reassure us on that front today? >> i don't know what the major head wind is, maybe people are not paying 5 bucks for a cup of coffee i know if we're going into recession, that could be an issue. definitely international is going to be an issue so there is a lot of ambiguity for their earnings future. and when you look at a technical level, it seems like it can't get out of its own way

been in a declining trend line since july of 2021 >> courtney what do you think? starbucks? >> i trade starbucks here. it does trade more expensive than the markets, but it is cheaper than historical averages they have a loyal customer base here if you look at people who are in their loyalty rewards program, they tend to spend two times to three times as much at starbucks than people who aren't they have some head winds with china, not really improving as fast as we wanted to see i think that will be a great thing for them long-term we go to commercial break, every time tim is saying, i hate my starbucks drink is going up and he keeps buying it i think that is a good show as it what their customers are. i would ask you, are you still buying your starbucks right now? >> nothing is going to stop me now. why would i give up now at a $4.50 drip coffee when i started 2 bucks. seems like two years ago they have pricing power. that's part of the story here. >> paypal reporting on thursday.

tim, what are you doing with this name? >> i'm going to trade it this is one of the stocks, scott refers to the cut in half club this is cut by two-thirds club it is a valuation somewhere 17, 18 times forward i think the story is their top line still not a great story out there. i think the opex gets better, margin gets better we priced a lot of bad news in here world class global company and i think paypal is starting to build a base if you look at that chart. >> grasso, you disagree? >> yeah, this is going to be a fade for me as well. if you look back to when paypal was thinking about buying pinterest, the stock has never recovered since then if they're out of growth ideas, you shouldn't be buying the stock. this is another one, sara, if you look back on the chart, this traded below the pandemic low, fought its way back above, and then skid back down again. once again, no momentum, down 54% for the year, down 5% for the month.

this is one that can't really get out of its own way i like the idea of paypal. the stock just doesn't seem to be performing well >> we're going to round out things here with kellogg, the food manufacturer. reports thursday before the bell courtney, trade it or fade it? ahead of a big split for this company, into three. >> yeah. and they have done fantastic this year. i don't want to discount that by any means. up 19% this year the s&p is down to close to 19%. talk about outperformance. i am going to fade it. it comes down to valuation it is trading 18 times next year earnings, which is more its own historical averages and its peers. there are cost pressures moving forward. i'll fade this. >> guy >> the private battle creek michigan continues to go higher. they have pricing power. i like the multiple. it trades up to levels we saw in the summer of 16 which was approximately 88 bucks >> what do you think about special k? >> i eat cereal, but not -- i'm not that healthy i like cereal, but -- i'm more

like a chex, wheat chex. >> wheat chex, chex party mix i'll take, but not for breakfast. >> i like puffins. we have a news alert on gm and twitter. the automaker temporarily suspending advertising on the social platform after the takeover by elon musk. the company saying, it is a normal course of business and it is, quote, engaging with twitter to understand the direction of the platform under their new ownership. this is really interesting, of course, for many reasons, but, one, because musk himself wrote that letter basically to advertisers yesterday saying we don't want this to be a hellscape, we wante eadvertiser on there, but he's going to be more open than the current twitter management doesn't matter for twitter stock. >> different if coca-cola said that this is gm and also a competitor on the tesla front. for advertisers and at times when we look at the social media

platforms, we know when facebook was going through their problems, advertisers have to be cautious about where they're parking their dollars and endorsing. i think it doesn't surprise me here he makes the statement, it is in the going to be -- what is the term a hellscape? why say that i guess it could be. >> he said he would let trump back on and anybody that wants to -- and then not moderate the content. you don't want it to be a place full of, i don't know, pornography and hate speech. >> no. and so advertisers as we have seen throughout the last two or three years have been very karbs with the number of different platforms to be out there and be ahead of it and say we're going to watch, see how this develops and make our choices >> he did announce on twitter he's forming a content moderation council to make decisions before letting people back on, like kanye west, people looking at that, trump >> that's not a council i think is -- anyway, i'll save that. >> it is something it is not just a free for all. anyway, we'll continue to follow that storyor f you

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mark your calendar for next tuesday. cnbc your money event. learn how to maximize your finances and invest in a brighter future with financial experts. register at cnbc events.com/your money or use that qr code right there on your screen it is time for final trade around the horn. steve? >> sign of the times, mcdonald's blew the cover off the ball. don't riscush out and buy it, wt for it to come back in better pricing >> courtney? >> i'll go with starbucks here ahead of earnings next week. this is a company with pricing power, the company you want to

be in right now. a good play. >> guy >> i hope your favorite trade it or fade it was good for you. bristol-myers breaking out here. >> that's it >> i can jump in here. i'll give you one, if i may. nike you're a big -- you probably wear some cool jordans the margin stays strong. >> after a tough quarter that is going to do it thank you, all, on "fast money." this is fun. don't go anywhere. we have more fun coming because "options action" is next

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it is friday and that means it is time for "options action. i'm sy sara eisen in for melissa lee. here's what's coming up. >> despite budding optimism, and undercurrent of concern still permeates the markets. carter worth charts out a haven to track and keep your portfolios as healthy as possible then, starbucks, for some consumers, it is discretionary for others, it's a staple. we'll find out how that's balancing out when the company reports resu