in china w we take you live to beijing. it is monday, october 31st, 2022 "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. happy halloween, everybody i'm rebecca quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. >> we are not properly >> i've got pink >> she's the only one. >> my wonderful wiccan wife. i wear pink for her. she has been under a spell, as you know, for quite a while.

i've been bewitched and beguiled for years. >> happy birthday. >> thank you you know my birthday january 6th. it used to the epiphany. >> unbelievable. >> it used to be >> three wise guys >> yeah. from the movie good fella showed up three kings. that's what it used to be. something else took precedence over there especially for certain people. u.s. equities. dow futures are off 150 points s&p down 21. nasdaq off 85. this comes after big gains on friday the dow up over 800 points that day. what a month it has been here is where we stand for

october. remember we were worried this could be a spooky month for the markets. historically that is the case. that is not ithe case this time s&p up 8%. then the dow which is up 14.4% in fact, on track for the best month as joe mentioned since 1976 we will see what happens today treasury yields were lower on the short end. this morning, you see yields up again. 2-year treasury up 4.5%. 10-year treasury at 4.073% 30-year treasury at 4.166 dollars. a lot on the planner this week earnings rolling on. tomorrow we hear from eli lily and airbnb on wednesday, cvs and yum and booking holdings and qualcomm. you can mark your calendar for

thursday we hear from marriott and palpal amgen. on friday, amc and draft kings and hershershey. on friday, it is jobs week we get the october employment report at 8:30 a.m set your dvr watch it live. 8:30 friday. >> do it live. new data on from china overnight. factory activity fell in october due to frequent covid outbreaks. decline in the purchase manager index driven by a manufacturing drop in orders pointing to weak demand and services decline in october for the first month.

that was since may speaking of china, factories over there covid restrictions in china are hurting production of the iphone according to reuters foxconn's plant in the central part of the country has been hit by strict measures to curb the virus. that could result in a drop of 30% of production of the smartphones at the facility. foxconn said the situation is coming under control and coordinate back-up production to reduce impact. foxconn denying a report that 20,000 of the staff at the chinese production facility had been diagnosed with covid. video emerging over the weekend showing workers fleeing from the facility over the concerns of the virus and strict lockdown measures we will have a live report from eunice yoon who is in beijing. that will be in the next hour. elon musk, ithe new owner of

twitter tweeted a conspiracy on the attack on the house speaker nancy pelosi that tweet has since been d del deleted. that linked to the story of the santa monica observer which has a history of publishing false information. the claim that was hillary clinton died in the september 11 attacks and replaced by a body double it makes unfounded accusations that conflict with the san francisco police department. of course, that is the beginning of things we saw over the weekend from musk. >> a lot to chew on with musk. separately, elon musk denying the report he is planning to layoff employees prior to november 1st to avoid stock delivery he is saying he is not going to do it. there was a report over the weekend that said he ordered job

cuts with some teams hit harder than others. elsewhere, twitter reversing th user verification process. a lot of reports out there and here is what we know twitter considering charging users who already have the blue check mark to pay for it pay $4.99 a month and some reports as high as $19.99 a month. paying for verification may come at the right time as advertisers are rethinking future with twitter. on friday, gm halted paid advertising on the platform as it engaging to understand the distribut direction of the platform. gm competes with tesla think about the motivation musk iss considering bringing back vine as a possible tiktok competitor the idea generated more than 1.6

million votes. and then lebron james. i don't know if you saw lebron upset about people using the "n" word and slurs and terrible things happening over the weekend and saying this is scary and terrible he says he doesn't know elon musk doesn't care who owns twitter. somebody should fix it >> he was doing that based on a report that came out from "the washington post" citing data of racial slur had been used. 400% increase over the past several days lebron couched it. he said if this is true, what are you doing about it he said i don't know elon musk i'm very concerned >> it puts -- this is the thing that makes it complicated now. when you are the center of the public square and owner of the public square, it just will

impact every business. gm good example gm hates tesla tesla hates gm we see the strange elon musk attack on mary barry mary barra attacks on him. there will be all sorts of businesses that want to do business or don't want to do business with elon musk and his town square now and possibly all of his other companies if you are a publicly -- i think if you are a public owner of the other companies, tesla being the one. we saw it amazon with jeff bezos. >> with "the washington post." >> they can sell any or all of the companies that he is involved with. i tried to call people like an idiot. i shouldn't do that. knuckle head that's okay. they asked me are you sure you want to say idiot. i can't believe they say are you sure you want to say this, this,

this all of these horrible words. >> if they ask you, you say yes? >> and it goes on. they don't ask for some. they don't ask for knucklehead or clown i tried dufus. that usually gets through. idiot they ask about i don't think you can do the "m" word >> "m" word? >> moron you are being a moron. you should not characterize someone as a -- i was shocked with the debate last week and some of the stuff they wrote in about both sides about the debate we had. we had rich lowry and jonathan gr gr greenblat. it is successful the question is is society at large a cesspool at large? >> the question is do you

amplify it >> no doubt. the decline of western civilization is in part due to twitter. maybe we should ban twitter. not ban individuals. ban twitter. i'm for that i get a few things off it. >> when jack ran it, he didn't tweet that much. when he did tweet, he was circumspect in what he was tweeting because he was serving the interests of the company and advertisers and what not now elon musk owns it full stop. it doesn't matter. he can tweet what he wants the tweet about, you know, paul pelosi, is a good example of how somebody with those impulses running a big company like that. i'm trying to be polite about it this is a complicated situation. >> this isn't the first time some tweets of 4/20 and taking the company private. they are all crazy

a lot of them are crazy. as an individual, is he allowed to do it there should be a china wall with the individual elon musk and how twitter is managed for shareholders, obviously. if elon wants to be crazy on his own account, then okay >> and his partners. we will get the chance to speak with walter isaacson with this later. he was at twitter headquarters on thursday. he spent all weekend with elon musk we'll get his take on what is happening. >> who put out the poll? 80%. he put it out himself probably >> i didn't see that >> selecting >> 80/20 80 favorable when we come back, the dow as we mentioned, on track for the best month since 1976. we will talk strategy after the break. before we take that break, here

is a flashback to 1976 "rocky" was at the box office. the top show is "happy days. and the spcincinnati reds won t world series gas cost 59 cents a gallon you are watching "squawk box" on cnbc >> announcer: this cnbc program is sponsored by baird. visit bairddifference.com. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ introducing ihg one rewards. seventeen hotel brands. six thousand global destinations. one loyalty program that lets you guest how you guest.

welcome back the futures this morning are under pressure dow actually down 140 points nasdaq is down 78. the s&p down 20. the federal reserve is set to begin its two-day meeting tomorrow and is expected to raise rates by 75 basis points let's bring in roger ferguson. the former vice chair of the federal reserve and the ceo of tiaa roger, it is not 75 basis points that the market is waiting to hear, but what comes next? the broad expectation that after this 75 point rate hike they will slow things down. what is most likely? >> first, i think you are right to say that it is what comes next is the issue. unfortunately, we will not get clarity this week as to what they are planning because of the

data that comes in i think the odds of slight step down to 50 are slightly greater than the odds of holding 75 one more time. the other big question, becky, is not what comes next in terms of december, but how high do they ultimately go and high long do they stay there there are a number of questions that have to be answered the next couple meetings >> part of the reason the market has done so well this month and in the last week has been this idea that the fed was going to slow down. that is there largely because of the article that nick wrote from "the wall street journal" talking about the pivot was near maybe people got carried away. nick has a new article out that suggests the fed could leave interest rates higher for longer and could go higher than people anticipate it felt like a walking back of the earlier commentary.

>> the market is meant to be forward looking has built in optimism it disconnected from the fed deep commitment and getting close to the 2% target the market has been hanging on ideas. first peak inflation and pivot and losing track of the big picture. inflation is higher than the fed likes. labor market is still very tight. survey data suggests that ceos plan to increase wages going forward for some period of time. the article that nick wrote suggesting that households are in pretty good shape when it comes to cash. all of these things will drive the fed to keep rates higher and for longer that is the disconnect frankly, to me, that's a head scratcher. >> bit of a head scratcher that the market is optimistic and has taken off again? >> exactly because i think they are overlooking the data that

suggests that the underlining strength which is a good thing and we celebrate is making the fed's job harder they will see in the december meeting when the fed issues its so-called dot plot sep, they will expect the terminal rate to higher than 4.6% or 5 handle it would not surprise me if the fed raises rates to 5% or 5.25% to get inflation under control that is not built into the market psychology right now. >> markets have been really on a tear especially if you are looking at the dow up 14.4% for the month so far that came as a shock to you? >> it was a surprise because as i said i think it is not a reflection of where interest rates likely to go now, i would say that the

earnings have been reasonably good for sure. there have been pockets where it was not very strong and surprises and some large companies that are very sensitive to the economy i think the market also is focused on the strength that it sees in earnings and only takes on board the negative surprises. overall, i was surprised with the strength of the market in october because i don't think it reflects what is likely to happen in interest rates going forward for the next year or so before the fed actually starts to reduce rates. >>ing roger, if the fed is data dependent, what are the two points we will see >> we have a couple more inflation reports coming in over the next six weeks there are several reports with the labor market and conditions including the job market this friday i think that is the place to look is inflation starting to cool?

are we seeing any let-up in the very tightness that the labor market which is drum tight still, but weakened a bit. >> if the cpi number cools by .10%, that is not enough? you need to see significant cooling? >> it is several not enough. i think we heard chair powell talk about it. he used clear and convincing evidence he is a lawyer and those words carry weight i think the market is holding a straw of hope that the job is done the fed will not react to straws in the wind. they want concrete evidence of the clear trajectory with inflation. .10% is not a clear indication on inflation. >> roger, thank you. we'll talk again soon. >> thanks. coming up, new law taking effect in new york city tomorrow

which is changing hiring practices for major companies. not just in the big apple. details ahead. and later, muhamed el-erian llivus his take on the earnings season. "squawk box" is back with all that in just a moment. ons chain, easy-to-use tools, and paper trading to help sharpen your skills, you can stay on top of the market from wherever you are. power e*trade's easy-to-use tools make complex trading less complicated. custom scans help you find new trading opportunities. while an earnings tool helps you plan your trades and stay on top of the market.

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item classification? ahhhhhh. cross-border sales? ahhhhhh. what about? ahhhhhh. ahhhhhh. do you have those budget markups? thank you. mmhm. [bubbles] welcome back to "squawk box. new york city employers are complying with the salary transparency laws that takes effect tomorrow. includes salary range are advertised for remote rolls that could be done in the city. large new york employers including jpmorgan chase and american express and citigroup

and macy's include pay ranges. some business groups have pushed back against the law calling it burdensome and others raise it could tip-off competitors. the goal, i think, is to try to actually narrow the pay gap between minorities, women and men, and trying to get the pay gap issues we talked about for so long to get closer. at the same time, disclosing the ranges changes things. it is unclear whether you actually have to pay what's in the range. meaning, advertise for the job in a particular range and depending what happens in the interview process, obviously, you can do whatever you want you negotiate for whatever it is i don't think you want it to be anything other than that >> lthough, if you are talking

about making a difference, it seems useless because my guess is every company would advertise at the low end and then do what they want to do and get people outside of that. >> i have hired people over the years with job listings with some kind of range and somebody fabulous walks in the door and invariably you want to pay them if you want them, you pay them more and be locked what you advertise the job for puts in a terrible place. >> in terms of how useful it is in the transparency issue. it's not >> directionally, it helps not only directionally, but interestingly, blue state, red state, this and that what is happening in new york is forcing the usualissue across te country. it is easier to do it nationally than start state by state d deciding i'll show a range here and in new jersey, not show a

range. i don't know >> don't you pay differently based on where they live >> that's another issue. just the idea of having ranges whether you publish the range or not. i don't know joseph elon musk has already owned twitter for a few days and creating controversy with the tweet and creati nngew proposals. we'll talk about that and more next >> announcer: executive edge is sponsored by at&t business at&t 5g is fast, reliable and secure edible. and you'll get our best deal. nice, but i can't accept it. unless every business gets the best deal. on every iphone. uh, actually... we already do that. the plumber with the ascot! big bjorn, little bjorn, too! the caterer who really cares. every business should get the deal! we make a good team. every business gets at&t's best deals on every iphone.

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good morning welcome back to "squawk box" here live at the nasdaq market site in times square look at futures on monday morning. we are in the red. dow off 156. nasdaq looking to open down 80 s&p 500 off 21 points. a busy weekend for elon musk he tweeted out about the attack

on paul pelosi house speaker nancy pelosi's house. the tweet has been deleted this questions circumstances on the attack on paul pelosi and conflicts with the account from the san francisco police department and elon musk stating he is not laying off staffers. that conflicts was the report over the weekend that said musk ordered cuts across the company. we have ben smith with us. editor in chief. i have come around to andrew's view on this musk people are crazy people do all kinds of stuff if you don't like what he is doing, you can affect the company business he has a lot of varied interests. that could be affected he is an adult if he wants to be crazy as a loon, i guess that is his

prerogative. there should be a china wall between him and what twitter is able to publish. >> between him and himself >> you would want to set up some guidelines so the diedguideline twitter are not the same as his personal guidelines. that's possible. there are board members and other people that have to rein in the craziness of individuals. i can remember ceos from companies in the past. i know you can remember as well. >> that seems like wishful thinking with elon he loves chaos he is right on the edge of what's real and what's a joke at all times. i think half of the things leaking out, it seems he is doing basically, because they are funny. the notion of charging people money to keep status is h hila hilarious.

the thought twitter can be financed by our vanity i'm not sure it is a great business plan. >> you won't pay >> nope. >> we're a frugal start-up i would negotiate a cut rate >> $4.99 i'm paying $2.99 for the true blue it only helps me being able to erase my tweet before i completely mess it up. >> who do you play the true blue twitter thing? i don't pay for anything i don't know what you are talking about. >> the blue -- >> twitter blue. you get extra features >> the idea is if you press send, you get 30 seconds before it actually sends. >> it takes me longer than 30 seconds. >> it is helpful for those of us -- >> have you used it? >> which >> erased something within 30

sn seconds? >> spelling errors. >> just delete it and do it again? >> you could my sense if you delete a tweet and res-send the same tweet, it doesn't get the liftoff. >> you are getting shadowed. elon should get to the bottom of this >> the floor is open >> you wouldn't pay? you think it is a bad business model? would you pay $20 a month? >> it depends on the culture of twitter and the norms of the insane place it becomes embarrassing to pay the blue p check is a special status to a loser paying for the platform >> paying to promote a post. >> exactly >> it is weird and icky. >> maybe everybody coughs it up. as big companies do on all sort of services. >> do we know about your concern about the people and whether

they were fired one day before they get vested? i saw that >> it has been back and forth. >> i saw it was going to happen and then no, it won't happen. >> on friday, we were talking about the concern of the twitter ply employees there was a separate series of reports that he was going to do it or he was doing it and wasn't doing it >> i didn't know which part of the report he was denying sdp >> a report published on saturday or sunday saying he was firing people immediately and he was saying it wasn't true. "the wall street journal." saying it was true >> it is amazing of twitter and cnn and the media companies is cutting costs. whenever the story you tell is, you have to cut costs. seems the biggest pressure on musk is 7,500 employees.

a lot of what he is going when you step away from the jokes and retweets is cutting costs. >> did you see the other tweet sent out late? it was about lip -- now he is inside the computer systems, he is finding stuff this should have come out in court. >> will he undo the deal >> i don't think he can undo the deal >> it is a totally out of context message. who knows? he is in there reading everybody's messages. >> is he reading our dms >> he has not shown a lot of restraint. who knows? it seems like it will be something every day. >> can we talk about your column you talked about the relationship with the media. he wants, as you have written, or historically, wanted to have a relationship with what i described as mainstream media and working with walter isaacson

on this book and talked to some privately and publicly at the same time, dealing with the fringe version of the media as well and moving in that direction? >> it is interesting i don't know i think people who have a fix on him. you have to realize he is out with walter isaacson who is the greatest biographer around if you google establishment journalism, his picture comes up he wants the approval of the establishment figure at the same time, his media diet is podcasts. then the other world with the tesla fans the only real constant is if you are in one of the worlds and say nice things about him, you get access and if you criticize him, you get cut off. not a broad range. sg >> not that weird. i may have done that with me, it is about the toupee

people that will always get a sponsor die. i don't wear one does it look like one? >> you look great. this took a turn >> doesn't know what is going on here. >> i have some empathy for it. >> ben, this may be part of the troubled relationship he had with the biden administration, too, which refused to acknowledge the advancements he made in ev you see a play out there, too, wanting to be given credit for what he has done and being upset when it doesn't come >> and after a great relationship for the obama administration and he has a very important relationship with the chinese government all of these cases, he is facing pressure from one end and access to the most powerful speech platform in the world to the other.

a lot of actors want to pull him one way or the other >> end of the world. it is. all of these crazy things going on now you couldn't have written a script crazier than elon musk. i don't buy this thing getting stuck with the $44 billion. >> as his wealth dropped preci precipitously. to be doing all of this with the crazy market swings. it feels there is a constant evolution. it is hard to pigeon hole him in one box. i don't know how walter ever stops writing this book. >> live tweet the whole book >> the first amendment we will have to figure out what the hell we mean by that and how much we really are going to defend it and say this is beyond the pale you can't do that. that is the key issue of where we're going.

i read stuff over the weekend. that still -- you are still allowed to say that? >> that is what is interesting about the lebron james tweet free speech. >> you let it all go or not? we need to decide. >> i want to get it if i can find it. it distilled the issue >> you see it on graffiti outside where people are not watching what you write. >> his last was so many damn free people saying hate speech is free speech is that the question >> right i can remember civil liberties aclu marching in skokie. we will be here to defend their right to say it. i don't know if it should be the case >> i think a lot of the abstract debates are the rubber meets the

road when you run twitter and making the calls day by stday. there is all sorts of things they never permitted and never will >> the way they used to do it. i'm ready for everything i understand why elon got involved and why so many people are mortified at who was running the censorship of twitter and how it was handled did you not see it >> i think the fact checking industry was making calls on political questions. the famous case is hunter biden laptop that was -- >> i can think of a few more >> if you go out, you can find considerable viewpoints. >> didn't rise to the level of saying no, we're not going to print that we spent years reading ridiculous things that did not rise to the level of blocked by russian misinformation

it was all skewed one way or the other. you shouldn't be surprised with the people that work at twitter where it is based. we don't need a public forum to give you one side we had a news network that way take a pick which one i'm talking about. >> no, i think when you start actually making the decisions day-to-day, it is a long distance from the distraction. >> you need an objective a.i. algorithm to do it >> that's the dream. >> could you write one >> nobody can. it will be elon making calls on a case by case basis >> better than the last regime >> ben, nice to see you. >> thanks. >> you told us about semperfor >> twierying to be a fair signa. >> spell it for us

>> s-e-m-a-f-o-r >> i think most people know. >> really? are you kidding me >> semafor s-e-m-a-f-o-r. could, p-h. >> thank you, ben. when we come back, we will talk to walter isaacson. he will join us when we come back not when we come back, later in the morning. we want toell you about morning movers and stocks to watch. the futures is under pressure. dow futures off 165. s&p down 22. the nasdaq down 87 it was an up day on friday "squawk box" will be right back.

thanks to avalara we can calculate sales tax on almost anything, anywhere, automatically. avalarahhhhh. what if tax rates change? ahhhhhh. filing sales tax returns? ahhhhhh. managing exemption certificates? ahhhhhh. business license guidance? ahhhhhh. does it connect with accounting? ahhhhhh. item classification? ahhhhhh. cross-border sales? ahhhhhh. what about? ahhhhhh. ahhhhhh. do you have those budget markups? thank you. mmhm. [bubbles]

ford is reportedly looking to offer severance packages to white collar workers the email sent to mamanagers ford is showing a pattern of declines performance employees can leave with the package uninstead of taking the plan

this is a little different than most severance that you hear that don't broadly target people for performance. and disney shanghai shutting down over covid today. all those forced to stay there until they tested negative for the virus. it started to comply with covid measures. coming up, we talk the fed week you can get the best of "squawk box" with squawk pod on your favoriteodst pca app and listen anytime. we're right back after this.

welcome back to "squawk box. the fed kicking off a two-day

policy meeting tomorrow. ahead of that meeting, janet yellen saying she's not seeing signs of recession in the economy. economists expect interest rates to peak at 5% in march our next guest is out with a new book about yellen's legacy joining us now is an old friend, "wall street journal" senior writer good morning to you, john. congratulations on the book. >> thank you so much it's great to be back here with you. >> it's a great read and quite insightful about the way she thinks and everything that's happened with her. take us inside the thinking of treasury right now but also inside the fed, your old beat in life, in terms of the way they're thinking about all of this and whether you think she's going to be proven right or wrong ultimately >> well, so in terms of the thinking, the way i frame it is,

we've been through three shocks in this economy, the first one was covid, the second one was washington's response to covid and all the money that it poured into the financial system and economy, the third shock we're going through right now is pulling back all of that stimulus i think the -- thethinking at the fed and the thinking at the treasury is it has to happen and it could cause some pain, but that's the pain you're going to have to endure to get rid of inflation. so in terms of being proven right or wrong, you know, "the wall street journal" just -- does a survey every quarter of economists, private economist and is the consensus is, we're going to have a recession in 2023 so, you know, we've been in turbulent times and they're not over. >> help us with this, this is a -- sort of -- i don't know if it's a janet yellen piece of trivia or not. there was a previous biographer

who had written a little bit about some of the stimulus efforts and the conversations going on in the white house about those stimulus plans, and in that report initially, they reported that she was actually a little anxious about some of those stimulus plans creating an inflationary environment then when that book came out, she said, no, no, no, it came out very publicly and strongly and said, that was not right but i actually read and thought to myself, she looks really smart, what's the problem with that >> well, so she was a little bit anxious about it janet yellen is a person who was raised to get her homework done and she joined this administration at the last minute she wasn't involved in joe biden's campaign and in january of 2021 they were moving very fast to formulate the american rescue plan and she felt like they hadn't done their homework, but there wasn't much she could do about it.

she had been talking to larry summers who raised a lots of concerns about the stimulus plan, she saw his point, but, you know, the bottom line is, when yellen spoke to president biden and when she spoke to congress, she said repeatedly that if they're going to make a mistake, the mistake should be to err on the side of doing too much and not too little. i don't think that we can let her off the hook she basically blessed the program even though she was a little anxious about how fast it was moving and how aggressively they were moving she gave it her blessing. >> and then, john, maybe you can read some of the -- there's a parlor room game going on about whether she's going to remain in this job, leave the job, and if she leaves, who might take it over what do you think is happening here >> well, washington, as everybody out there knows, is a strange town people like to play this parlor

game there's been rumors that she was going to be out by midterms. she actually didn't want the job at the beginning she turned biden's emissaries down when they first offered it to her i asked her about this and she said very clearly and emphatically, she has no intention of leaving after the midterms, that she could see herself staying for four years so i think this parlor game, it's something that people sometimes do, they spread around these rumors to make themselves sound more kind of connected i think there's a lot of that going on with the janet yellen is out story she wouldn't say that i will stay after the midterms unless she gave it careful thought. >> john with a new book out about janet yellen

great to see you we appreciate you this morning. >> thank you so much. >> bye, john coming up, eventually, eventually, walter isakson is going to join us after he spent the weekend with new twitter owner elon musk. a run down of the big stock movers "squawk box" will be right bac (woman vo) sailing a great river k. past extraordinary landscapes into the heart of iconic cities is a journey for the curious traveler, one that many have yet to discover. exploring with viking brings you closer to the world, to the history, the culture, the flavors, a serene river voyage on an elegant viking longship. learn more at viking.com ♪♪ energy is everywhere... even in a little seedling.

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good morning a not so scary month for the dow. that's putting it lightly. the dow is on track for its best month since 1976 a busy weekend for elon musk and twitter. musk denying some reports about planned layoffs as new controversies swirl. plus, chinese workers flee a covid lockdown at an iphone factor we have the details straight ahead. the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now ♪ good morning welcome back to "squawk box" right here on cnbc live at the nasdaq market site

in sometimes square on halloween. is this halloween eve? no, it's halloween we are on halloween, technically. i'm andrew ross sorkin becky quick is here looking very halloweenish joe kernen is here -- >> halloween or halloween eve. >> halloween happens in the evening -- >> halloween is mischief night. >> that would have been last night. >> yes. >> you didn't -- >> we were doing activities last night -- >> were you out? >> not getting candy. >> were you begging people's houses >> no. i thought that's what you were saying >> your house, that's a separate issue. >> and ghosting? do you know ghosting >> i thought that's when you don't respond to the text. >> no, no. ghosting is when you go out and ring a person's doorbell and leave something there, you've been ghosted >> we call that booing >> it's different -- >> yeah. u.s. equity futures at this

hour, let's see how spooky things turn out to be. the dow off 89 points, the s&p 500 looking to open down 14 points treasury yields as well. we were talking about the fed and janet yellen at the treasury there, ten-year note, a number they're going to be focused on this morning 4.042. the two-year, 4.472. did you ever get your i-bonds? >> i maxed out i wasn't maxed out for the kids. >> i didn't make it through the labyrinth of the website oil right now, wti at 86.59. and and crypto, bitcoin sitting at $20,758, joe >> didn't get through 21 got close though might have briefly been right up there which is -- you know, a couple grand above 18,700 where we were watching it

at one point it held up relatively well let's get to dom chu with a look at this morning's premarket movers. >> joe, becky, andrew, we have apple shares right now in focus and this is after a report that said production of apple's iphone could slump by as much as 30% because one of the biggest factories that produces the smartphone is being hit with lockdown measures in china they're looking to ramp up protection at other facilities apple shares in a more risk-averse environment right now. still down a half of a percent after holding up well last week. next week, you have an analyst downgrade, that's caterpillar, it's down 1.5% but thinner premarket volume it's not being helped out by analysts who say that the equipment maker is a neutral-related stock.

the target does go up to 230 it was 235 in change there before they say that the earnings power is underappreciated but the risk-reward is more balanced caterpillar shares down. we'll end with a check on shares of tesla and glencore. they held talks with glen ccore about a stake there. tesla looked to get a minority stake in glencore but the two sides couldn't reach a deal. tesla shares down about 0.75% in premarket trading. glencore off fractionally in trading as well. i'll send things back over to you. >> thanks, dom >> i'm thinking him, actually. what did you do over the weekend, dom there's no golf on

did you see -- for example, did you see that carolina -- did you see the end of that? >> i did watch the end of that i didn't have any fantasy exposure to that game. although i -- >> 65-yard touchdown with 13 seconds. barely caught it >> unbelievable hail mary. >> he was so excited that's a 15-yard penalty pushed the extra point attempt back 15 yards and they missed it so the game was tied instead of them winning and atlanta came back and won. >> but you know why, though, right? because the same kicker also missed the field goal that would have helped them win the game in the first -- in the first part of overtime. and so two missed kicks basically because of one -- >> unforced error -- >> i think he feels terrible this morning right now for what happened >> he should >> have you seen anyone go from

hero to -- >> there wasn't -- i'm more concerned as you know about the niners beating up on the rams. i'm happy that the niners won. >> and tonight we return -- and it's in philly those fans are nuts-o. >> my family loves them. i've seen the fans there you saw the little kid who was behind the reporter from san diego? he was 6 or 7. jumped in behind the shot, flipped the bird. >> no? >> yeah. welcome to philly. city of brotherly love. >> meantime, the dow up more than 14% for the month and on pace for its best monthly performance since january of 1976 we showed you the futures. they're in the red this morning. a little spooky. the talk right now, i want to figure out where markets may be headed kevin simpson is the founder of capital wealth planning.

good morning to you, kevin we've been talking about it all morning, all week, things have been looking up. is this a head fake or is this something much better than that? >> yeah, andrew, i wish i was bringing good news today we've seen two rallies so far during this correction where the s&p was up over 10%. this time it's up about 8 and i know all the headlines are on the dow and for good reason. investing in companies with strong balance sheets heading into an inflationary environment, recessionary environment makes sense. but i can't justify that we're out of the woods by any means. until we see a meaningful decline in inflation, we can't have a sustainable rally as we saw with pce on friday, cpi before that, it's not coming down and these rate hikes that the fed is aggressively pursuing will take time. >> what's your base case on what happens? this is a bear market rally that

turns in which way when? >> well, i think it may be a sell the news event on wednesday. the press conference that we see chairman powell make after a 75-point rake hike will tell the tale of the terminal rate. 5% is in the cards seeing a december 50-point base hike, but it doesn't change the narrative. they're still going to be raising rates into 2023 and until they stop raising rates, until they say, you know, this is it for the terminal rate, this is where fed funds rates are going, we can't think about a pivot. we're nine months to a year area until that's a reality. >> it's not the 75 basis points they're likely to go on wednesday, the it's the press conference after that you think sends the market into some kind of shock that they're not appreciating >> i don't think it has to be a

massive shock. you're looking at money moving into the value space which is somewhat less volatile this isn't the start of the next p bull market. that's the point the s&p 500 is fairly valued here i would use this as an opportunity to just rebalance a portfolio, maybe get a little bit more defensive i'm an equity investors. i'm all in on the stock market i'm not trying to time it. i'm not trying to go to cash but a bottoming process when you have this type of aggressive rate hikes will take time. the good news is, the market is forward-looking. in six to nine months we could be pricing in 2024 earnings. some of the work that the fed is doing is coming through in data. i mean on the housing front, pending sales were down and we'll see that in cpi later. >> fair enough we're going to leave it there. kevin, appreciate it we'll see whether you're right or wrong a little later this week all right. we are watching what's been happening with the markets this

morning. if you take a look right now, the dow has improved slightly. earlier we were down 150 the nasdaq still down by 60 points the s&p down by 14 "squawk box" will be right back. >> announcer: "squawk box" is sponsored by bitwise the world's leader in crypto index funds.

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developing story out of china, fox con now disputing reports that about 20,000 of the staff at the chinese production facility had been diagnosed with covid. videos emerged over the weekend showing migrant workers fleeing from that facility over concerns about the virus and strict lockdown measures. we talked about this earlier eunice yoon joins us now from beijing with more. >> reporter: foxconn gave an interview where they renewed their pledges to improve life under covid curbs in the facility this is iphone city. the apple supplier said that canteen services would resume at that plant by november 1st anyone infected or suspected of infections would get better medical care and transport to

quarantine centers and those who do decide to stay will get bonuses of up to $14 a day it would be an extra half month salary now foxconn workers have been complaining online about a deterioration in worker conditions at the facility as they live and work on site they have also been forced, they say, to leave the facilities because they are so concerned, leaving by foot to their hometowns. the company has said that the production hasn't actually been affected at all, in fact, they said that they're coordinating their facilities, coordinating production with other facilities however, the demand, i should say for production and for

workers has been very, very great because of the need for workers as we head into the christmas season so that's -- hold on, one second i'm having an audio issue as well i don't know if you're able to hear me. but that's one of the other situations that we are seeing with foxconn is that this is all hang happening when other businesses are being disrupted. shanghai disneyland suspended their theme park because of covid outbreaks. u.s. companies could be facing headwinds when it comes to doing business in china amazon, intel, apple, amd all have significant china revenue exposure joining us right now is jay clayton, the former s.e.c. chairman, cnbc contributor, nonexecutive chair of apollo and member of the board at american

express. let's talk about the pullback and deglobalization to this point. there is significant risk, i think, just based on the heated rhetoric that's going back and forth between china and the united states. what are companies doing about it >> look, over the past 20 years, you have it exactly right, we've become deeply integrated starts with trade, production, financial markets. some of this manifested itself in things we were dealing with when i was there we know we're going to stay integrated but there's going to be some pullback and if you look at this from both sides, right, we're highly reliant on china we saw that in the supply chain, in production. we're pulling back from that disruptions in china are going to disrupt supply in the united states we can come back to inflation, how that might be actually affecting inflation in a way we didn't anticipate. on the other side, if you're

china, you want control. we're seeing that. and being deeply integrated with the united states, relying on the west in a way that maybe you're not comfortable with. we're having somewhat of a reset. look, i think it's a fascinating thing from a company perspective but also more broadly from a market perspective if we've been looking at the drivers of inflation and inflation predictions, we've actually gotten it wrong all of the experts over the last six, nine months have said that inflation is going to come down faster than it actually has. one of the drivers of that, of what i would say is the persistent inflation, is this what i would say is deintegration. the ability to increase supply is not there like it was and as you deintegrate and shift, any time you have a transition, costs are going to increase. so i think we should look at this as just another factor that policymakers and companies are going to need to deal with as we go through this price adjustment mechanism -- or price

adjustment phase >> i think we probably got caught up with the idea that globalization is a good thing. it does bring down costs if you're too reliant on one player, that's not a great idea. it's just as we pull back and as china tries to crack down and not get its market taken away from it, it could lead to some really bad disruptions for companies that do have heavy reliance -- >> it may be an oversimplification if you look at the years where we were worried that inflation wasn't high enough, what do we think the drivers of that were, globalization and tech and right now we have a reverse in globalization may be it shouldn't surprise us that inflation is more persistent than it was for that reason. >> but you're not calling for companies to not kind of find other ways to make sure they diversify. >> i think it's a lesson learned, right >> lesson learned meaning you can't be too reliant

>> meaning when you have -- when you drive things down to the absolute lowest cost, you're resiliency almost always disappears. >> you think of some of these companies, though, and i would put tesla and apple, maybe nike, very high up on the list how do they disentangle without really taking too much of a -- too much of a hit to be able to continue >> this isn't binary it's not you're in or you're out, but we're having a readjustment from a political perspective, operational perspective. look, i'm -- maybe i'm too much of an optimist this is an area where washington has a bipartisan common view which is -- >> the only area. >> but look, as we try to get this right, if it becomes a focal point for cooperation, we're going to the election, if this becomes a focal point for cooperation post the election, maybe we can get other things. it's not an isolated thing

clearly our relationship with china has an effect on the economy more broadly and other drivers of inflation. >> where is the cooperation in washington right now on this front? it seems hard-line and harder line are the two stances you see. >> there's cooperation around the capital market aspects of this and whether chinese companies that will delist that's a piece of legislation that you saw go through congress with no opposition signed into law. it's supported by the american people the american people are if you're not going to play by the same rules, time to choose a different game that's sort of, i think -- >> that seems so obvious i can't believe that it was allowed to continue the way it was for so long >> look, i think, i think people are always hopeful that you're going to make progress on cooperation. but at some point you have to call it into question and that's what happened in the -- the

kennedy/van hollen bill. enough is enough if we don't get there by a certain date, we're going to cause delisting. >> let's talk about the election coming up. you have the house in play, the senate in play what is going to be different for financial market regulation if things shift in washington? >> well, i think we have seen financial market regulation expand in its -- what i would say it's intended effect you've seen the s.e.c. move into the areas of climate you've seen other regulators being pushed to move into the areas of climate >> i mean, don't you think that the climate piece is already getting pushed out >> i'm sorry >> like the s.e.c. is doing around climate it feels like the rules that gary gensler was trying to put into place may not happen anymore. >> that's exactly right. you've seen regulators go beyond their core remit and if you have

what i would say is divided government, i think there will be more of a check on that >> we had gary gensler on the program last week and spoke with him about that you feel there's too much overreach that's come? >> look, i think -- i believe in effective administrative state i think the women and men at the s.e.c. do an incredible job. the price discovery in our markets today is what's driving policy it is really important as i say, though, they're not climate scientists they don't know what our transition plan is if we're going to have a transition to a greener energy environment, what is that? the s.e.c. should not be at the center of setting that i think -- that's the -- that's not controversial. >> what should also maybe not be controversial is what is s.e.c. is trying to put in place is not a direction of what should happen, it's just saying,

disclose so investors can figure it out, if they want to. >> i think that's right and wrong, andrew. there is historic disclosure that people rely on. if the reason you're disclosing information is to assess how good or bad a particular company is going to do it transition, you kind of have to assume what the transition is going to be? are we going to emphasize natural gas as our bridge fuel to a greener economy or are we going to emphasize something else -- >> this is how we do it. this is how you measure it and this is -- this is what our -- this is what our carbon footprint looks like or not. i'm saying -- >> right but that carbon footprint, i mean, that's a very -- if you're investing just based on ghg numbers, i -- i really want you to think about that. >> hopefully you're not just investing on those numbers that's like saying, you know, some people invest on top line, right? that's how they invest

some people investing on dividends, that's how they invest some people are investing on what the p/e multiple is some people are looking at all of these numbers hopefully. >> ask companies if we are transitioning to carbon neutral 2050, how are you planning for that what would you need in terms of technology to get there? that's a much more idiosyncratic view of how a company is going to handle it. >> i have to ask because you're here and we always talked to you about elon musk. last night elon musk started tweeting out some information that he found -- now that he owns this company in twitter, he's now gone into the files, apparently, and found some emails and other things that he says the twitter board and lipton obscured and should have shown people and that the court should have seen my question to you is now that the deal is closed,

interestingly enough, can he go back retroactively and go to a court and sue the board or sue others, i'm not sure who -- you know, who is the body that you sue for damages after having purchased an -- are there examples where somebody buys something and then sues afterwards >> let me say -- >> then this drama ain't over yet. >> from a shareholder perspective and market perspective, the deal is over. but that's an important part of the way we do things in america, is that we have disaggregated retail shareholders. when we call it a day and they get paid, that's it. >> you check out but maybe he uses it -- >> who is the body that you can sue if you want to >> it is america we take care of your retail shareholders it's also america, you know, you can make a lot of claims in court. to say there no claim here --

>> does directors and officers insurance, which i believe most of the board of twitter had and i think -- i say that had with a “d” as in had, or has, do you keep that insurance? is that insurance still in effect after a transaction closes if you actually decide you're going to try to sue the board, are they protected or are they really not protected that's actually quite interesting question >> it is a quite interesting question -- >> if i say so myself given that i asked it. >> you play a lawyer on tv >> wouldn't they be that protected from anything that happened during the time frame that they were covered >> i don't know. maybe not. generally, i haven't looked at the papers generally, that is something that gets negotiated about continuing coverage for previous directors. >> does it usually stay in effect. >> it usually stays in a effect. >> for, what, 12 months? >> my deal days are dated, it's usually some meaningful period of time. >> interesting >> thanks for coming in today.

>> thank you. coming up, binance investing trying to solve some of the company's problems like bots take a look at crypto this morning. flirting with 21,000, but staying under there. you can take a look at eth standing at 1628 we're coming right back. >> announcer: this cnbc program is sponsored by baird. visit bairddifference.com. so you know all you need for recovery. and you are? i'm an investor...in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to... nasdaq 100 innovations like... wearable training optimization tech. uh, how long are you... i'm done. i'm okay. as an independent financial advisor,

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still to come, the world's largest crypto exchange, investing in elon musk's buyout of twitter binance ceo zhao is going to join us next later, mohammed el eri quk x"s coming right back

♪ welcome back to "squawk. elon musk tweeting out an unfounded conspiracy theory yesterday morning about the attack on the husband of nancy pelosi the tweet has been deleted that tweet was in response to a tweet from hillary clinton, it linked to a story from a santa monica observer newspaper website that has a history of

publishing false information the publication claimed that hillary clinton died in the september 11th attacks and has been replaced by a body double he makes unfounded accusations conflict that with the san francisco police department. separately, elon musk denying reports he's planning to lay off twitter employees prior to november 1st to avoid stock grants due to staffers that day. that contradicts a "new york times" report over the weekend that said musk ordered the cuts with some teams getting hit harder than others unclear which part of that report he was saying was false elsewhere, elon musk saying that twitter is revising its user verification process but multiple reports saying twitter considering charging users for the blue checkmark for $4.99 a month. and folks who were in the

twitter building tweeting out a survey asking people what they pay, 80% said they would pay nothing. meantime, forcing users to pay up for verification may be coming as just the right time as advertisers think their future plans to work with twitter general motors a competitor of tesla on the other side of elon musk, halted paid advertising as it engages with twitter to understand the direction of the platform under new ownership and musk is considering bringing back vine, the viral short video app shut down by twitter back in 2016 musk's poll about the already has generated more than 1.6 m 1.6 million views, including a tweet from mr. beast i don't know if you guys are into the whole influencer thing. mr. beast said that this could be a really great thing and elon went back to him and said, how would you do it? this is what's going on on twitter. with more on the story of elon musk's takeover of twitter, it

was reported last week that bye nance has invested $500 million to create a block chain to twitter. joining us now is binance's ceo. good morning it's great to see you. tell us how the deal came together in terms of why you decided to invest with him >> well, the deal was put together a few months back we haven't changed our position. the reasons -- the many reasons for supporting the deal. twitter is a free speech platform which is global, which is extremely important we want to support strong entrepreneurs. twitter is a tool that i use heavily. and we want to make sure that crypto has a seat at the table when it comes to free speech so -- and there are more tactical things. we want to help bring twitter into web three when they're ready.

yeah, we want to help solve those meimmediate problems, charging for memberships that can be done very easily using cryptocurrencies. >> elon that has hinted that this could turn into a superapp. do you think that's possible and what would that look like in your mind? >> i think that's very possible. so everybody have a different meaning of superapp in their head i'm not sure if my version is going to be the same as elon's he referred to we chat social media, ordering food, everything >> how concerned are you as an investor in this business about the outside interest and potential pressures that could come on elon as a result of not just owning twitter, but he has tesla, which has business in lots of different countries, sp spacex which has business in the

united states and has lots of business in the defense department and the pressures that could come to bear. >> every person has to deal with pressure they always have other potential friends or interested parties. but if anyone can take pressure, i think elon musk shown that he can handle pressure. so as an entrepreneur, we you said that very well. so we fully support him in whatever he does. >> were you -- look, when you got involved originally, the valuation of twitter and frankly all of social media and technology was meaningfully higher than where it is today. i don't know where -- what you think twitter is technically worth today. whether it's $15 billion, $20 billion, was there a point in which you thought to yourself -- because clearly elon musk thought to himself, i got to get out of this deal or i got to get it for acheaper price were you at a moment where you said, we shouldn't be doing this this doesn't make any sense? >> i don't think -- to the best

of my knowledge, i don't think elon ever said that the price was not right. i think he didn't want to do the deal for various other reasons but for us, we're long-term investors. we believe in strong entrepreneurs. we believe in strong platforms, free speech, and that's priceless. and so the market go up and down a few months ago, now it's a bit lower, higher, we don't care we look at this at a 10, 20, 50, 100-year basis a little price fluctuation on a monthly basis doesn't surprise us at all. >> is there a business case that's been made to you in terms of why to invest in it i know you want a seat at the table? was there a model that you were shown where you were like, i seen the path, or is it, look, elon musk is like the horse to bet on you look at what he's done with tesla, you look at spacex and he's defied every -- you know, critic out there >> i think elon is one of the

main factors but twitter platform itself is very strong. i believe twitter has not been monetized well it's not been grown well there's many tactical problems, like the bots that spam my comments, there's scammer accounts on there. it's not being run well. so i think the platform has huge value in itself. i can see it clearly myself. and especially now with elon at the helm, we're very confident we're not worried about the short-term price fluctuations. >> on one side of the ledger, there's elon musk the entrepreneur who has just been fabulous beyond fabulous. it's a remarkable thing to behold what he's accomplished in business and frankly i would argue for humanity to some degree on the other side, there has been some kind of wild tweets and behavior that i think some people find questionable, including this tweet that went out over the weekend about paul

pelosi how do you square those two things >> so elon is a -- you know, he's a genius. geniuses sometimes act in the ways that normal people like me cannot fully understand. also he's a very experienced tweeter. he has a lot of -- he has the most followers -- one of the most followed person on twitter. so different people have different personalities. i wouldn't comment on how he tweets it's freedom of speech -- >> but is there a moment where you say, i got to call him up because this is over the line or is there going to be a moment that's going to create a business challenge >> freedom of speech is fine, but there are border lines you cannot do fake speech. if you lie, if you -- if you fake something, that's scam.

hate speech, violent speech generally not good in my books but i don't think elon has crossed any of those lines that's kind of my very basic understanding of him. >> fair enough it's great to see you. i'm a twitter user i'm rooting for twitter. i appreciate you thank you. >> thank you so much. >> elon musk's biographer walter isaacson spent the weekend with him. stay tuned for that. midterms and your money. heidi heitkamp and judd greg join us to discuss what could change after election day. "squawk box" coming right back

still to come this morning, a big week for earnings. mohamed el erian will join us to talk markets with the dow on track for its best month since 1976 here's a quick flashback, by the way. "rocky" topping the box office "happy days" was the top television show. gas costing 59 cents a gallon.

"squawk box" will be right back. can he stand on his own... once he's all on his own? this is financial security. and lincoln financial solutions will help you get there. as you plan, protect and retire. ♪ to adapt in a fast changing world, as you plan, protect and retire. you could hire a professional pit crew.

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welcome back to "squawk box. contrary to popular belief, more americans are paying federal income tax this year and we have more on who is paying and why the number of nonpayers is falling. robert, what's happening >> good morning, andrew. this is a very widely watched number and about 72 million households will pay no federal income taxes this year that's about 40% of the total

according to a new analysis from the tax policy center. the number of so-called nonpayers is on the decline. in 2020, 59% of americans paid no federal income tax. last year it was 56% the main reasons for the drop are higher unemployment and fewer government tax credits most nonpayers are low- to middle-income earners, especially now that the standard deduction is nearly 26,000 for couples. about 60% of the nonpayers make less than 30,000 a year. 28% make between 30 and 60 the people who don't pay any income tax, have very little income rick scott says every american should pay some federal tax. democrats say it's the wealthy who don't pay taxes. joe, this number has become a

hot-button issue for both democrats and republicans. >> yeah, you meant -- the main reason for the drop higher, employment and fewer government -- >> not higher unemployment higher employment. >> correct. >> excellent we're going to continu we will continue along this -- you know who i thought of, robert i was thinking of mitt romney for some reason. he said something about that let's not talk about that. let's talk about taxes and what's at stake on election day. judd gregg, former governor of new hampshire. he was very, very busy and former member of north dakota, msnbc contributor. heidi, you're just looking at your notes you're still talking about ways that the dechl democrats should

close. do you think there has been a late break towards republicans in both -- the house looks like it's gone. the senate unpredicted now it's a betting site, obviously it's not polls and even polls have been shifting, but it's 72 cents for a republican win in the senate as well do you still think that's not a given and that the democrats can start to switch minds towards the end here >> i think that august was not a good month for democrats they kind of took their eye off the economic ball. i thought you saw some slippage. you're always going to see these polls close and getting closer and i don't think the democratic party in many of these areas really responded the way they should i think they're responding now is that going to be too little, too late wer seeing the polls stabilize

and trend back to democrats. we could have -- i don't know enough about the house to speak to that. we could have a senate that would be decided by less than 25,000 votes so right now i would say the senate is 50/50. democrats are focused on pennsylvania they're focused on georgia they're focuseded on arizona and nevada and potential pickups in states like ohio, north carolina and even florida, but those are long shots and i would tell you the trend is very big for democrats. i think we cauterize the wound and it would be too little too late >> the democrats chose to run on two issues, trump and abortion republicans are running on safety and pocketbook issues and james carville said it's the

economy, stupid especially in difficult times. they're also concerned in the direction of the nation. they're concerned about their safety and concerned about the safety it's not a good time to be an incumbent or an incumbent party. >> i'll start if it's a democratic senate and a republican house what do you see happening? what laws stay do any go? are there any new ones that happen in the first two years. >> first, you have to say how high the majority is say they get 51 votes then they can actually end the filibuster and move on things that they think are important like making the district of columbia stay. if the house, on the other hand, goes republican and mccarthy doesn't have more than 20 votes to work with, he's got problems

because there is a hard core element in the house both cambers will be very fluid in the way they act, but historically, when you have a divided government and he understands how to govern, you usually get a compromise and governance, quite honestly almost all issues require some sort of compromise you saw it under obama and under bush and he has experience with it >> what if it's a red sweep and you get a senate that, say, 52-48 republican they'd be catching the bus, the dog catching the bus what would they do with it >> well, i would think -- i would hope that they'd want to govern constructively on issues

that bother people immigration would be a perfect place to start and i think you can actually bring the administration and policy, and i also think that they would put an end to this very, very aggressive drift that the democratic party has gone towards and being led by bernie sanders hasn't been a good idea. let's take the second scenario what if the republicans control the senate and the house, what do you think we'd be in for? >> i think there will be a lot of investigating biden and a lot of message points. if they take over, that would mean a victory for donald trump and what we've seen over the last six things continue and there have been a lot who want to get things done and the radical side drowned out that

effort to do things like judd said about immigration reform. i think the more interesting question is if the republicans take over both chambers what happened in the lame duck, it will be a wild time trying to get agenda items passed before the congress turns over. so there's going to be a lot of soul-searching on both sides, there will be a lot of discussion about what can we get done. a lot of good will in the begins and it will be overtaken by presidential politics in 2024. i've always said there are senators that wake up this morning and say they don't see senators, they see a future president. >> how do you see 2024 >> the day after the election, joe. >> we're already talking about

it in new hampshire. we have republican candidates coming in regularly and they're not there could be good guys or good women supporting some candidate in new hampshire they're there to give themselves visibility in the early primary state. >> all right today's -- it's a week from tomorrow, do i have that right >> you got that right. >> both of you, maybe we'll talk to you on november do you think we'll have some answers quickly, heidi >> no. >> i think we could see recounts in a couple of states, and so it's going to be very, very difficult especially in the environment where people don't trust elections. all right. heidi, that thanks, judd gregg >> thank you >> coming up next, monday morning markets with mohamed el erian. then walter isaacson will talk

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good morning and happy halloween. it's the final day of october and the dow on pace for its best month since the mid-'70s

the futures are off slightly and we'll get you ready for a good week that includes earnings, a fed decision and a new jobs report meantime, if you somehow expected things to be calmer with elon musk owning twitter you'd be disappointed after the weekend we had we'll go after twitter takeover with walter isaacson spent the week with them and vowing better working conditions of employees allegedly fleeing. we'll get a live update from beijing. the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now ♪ ♪ good morning welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are live at the nasdaq marketsite in times square,

along with becky quick and soshgin. >> we are down about 60 or so in about a half hour ago ask we are now down triple digits and the nasdaq down 66 or so and the s&p 16 as far as yields, the ten-year is back above 4% and the two-year also troubling some some 4.5% almost on the two-year. >> one of the top stories today. elon musk's twitter takeover the new owner had a busy weekend creating his own news and other reports. musk took issue with one detail reported by "the new york times. job cuts could come before november 1st and that's tomorrow musk called that report false. musk tweeted and deleted an unfounded anti-lgbtq attack of

nanny pelosi and there were trollings, jokes and memes we'll talk more about musk and twitter takeover and that's coming up with musk biographer, walter isaacson. goldman sachs economist see the federal reserve hiking rates to 5% by early next year. that's a quarter percentage point, projecting a 75 basis point hike this week and a half percentage point hike in december and a 25 basis points in february and march. so it's not just the number that we'll see on wednesday that really matters and it will be the press conference and what jay powell tells us and gives direction. >> emerson electric selling a majority take to private equity giant blackstone the transaction would value emerson at $15 million in quarterly debt revenue this morning, take a

look at wynn resorts, tillman has taken a 6.1% stake in the company. take a look. up about 6%. >> tillman fertitta owns the houston rockets and the golden nugget in las vegas and this is an interesting move because he just got approval for a new hotel casino on the strip and that's supposed to be a 43-story, 2300-room hotel. >> ferata, i don't try to understand let's get back to the broader markets on this final day of october. mike santoli joins us now with what he's watching what's going on, mike? pretty good week last week as everyone has remarked and sidestepping big tech and will give some of it back this morning as you spy an index fund

and down half a percent in terms of managing to rally and not get further down and that was the case with the october 13th cpi number some progress made here and clearing the 50-day average on a technical basis and a lot of folks would be looking at the next one here and that 5% up here and that's where the august rally ended as the fed kind of smacked it down and said you guys don't get too cheery just yet we had the meeting to get through on wednesday there are signs that the typical stock has gotten traction than the biggest ones and this is the equal weighted russell 1,000 and a broader sampling of stocks and you see it's definitely been firmered in highs and the lows and outperforming fiesly by four percentage points on a year to

date basis and this is the reverse and the biggest stocks have more to give back and on a sector basis, worth watching in financials and there's an etf of community bank stocks and really small institutions as you would expect compared to the s&p 500 banking index and that's another one where you have 6% of outperformance and there are subtle signs in there that many stocks will have bottomed and are back trying to make up trends even if the overall market, joe, depends on what happens with the fed and the macro. strong, seasonal period and sentiment seems cautious and we have to get through some of big known events coming up in the next week or so. >> people predict a bear market rally only to test the new lows or name nobody if that is in the cards because if it subsides,

and the fed has to go further than what we're thinking and we had to go back and re-test the lows >> even if not re-test and remain stock and have certain sectors struggle a little bit. maybe nobody knows i'm of the opinion that certainly nobody knows. >> maybe god of the markets doesn't know and it's probability at this point. she has to still decide. i don't know anything is possible in this -- what i increasingly think is a simulation that we're all living through. >> yeah. we're just looking at the shadows on the cave wall, joe. >> exactly >> thanks, mike. joining us now for more on the markets the heart of earnings season and what to expect from this week's kricritical meeting

mohamed el-erian i'm curious what you think we are going to hear and not just the number and everyone's consensus is 75 basis points and we are concerned of jay powel and we'll hear the jobs number on friday. >> good morning. he's in a bit of a bind because on the one hand, i think, he's inclined to validate the expectation that we are having a slowdown in the rate hikes and he may combine that with a higher terminal rate as some have suggested on the other hand, if he does that and financial conditions continue to loosen then that causes him problems on the inflation front. so it's a really tough balance to strike and then there's the financial stability issue to talk about that and it's a fascinating press conference and it comes after the jobs number, but before the labor report. so it is a particularly interesting one, this one.

so you saw the answer for it what do you think is really in the cards at this point? >> so they are looking at inflation. they're looking at how persistent inflation has become and they are saying therefore the fed will have to go even higher, but the way that it gets there slows down so it's between how high, how fast, how long, the hfl and what we do know is the f that's most problematic for the markets and it's the fast fit. with the way fact that the fed can get away, i think it can navigate the higher for longer so look at the pace. the pace is really important and if the pace stays the way the right now then we'll have this liquidity rally once again being chal e challenged by fundamentals >> some people think this is the

beginning of something and that it's a grand head fake >> i think they summarize it very well. this is a market that repeatedly falls in love with liquidity and rallies and the sustainability of those rallies is only there if you get fundamentals improving. that is the lesson of the last two and a half years, when you're in that rally it's incredibly powerful and incredibly rewarding so looking forward, and i am among the people -- when do fundamentals have the liquidity valley and that's why people are worried that we'll test the lows. >> is there any chance we actually are in for a soft land. you saw gdp numbers better than what people had expected which i think gave some comfort to the folks at treasury and the fed. >> look, i'm not yet in the camp

that a recession is 100% i do think it is uncomfortably high is there some possibility of a soft landing, yes. it is meager for a soft landing that happened the fed should have not wraited and front load this. >> where are you on other side of this and larry summers talked about that even in the best case scenario you sort of live in this stag flagsz z world. there's nothing preordained about stagflation and we should do more on regulating and supervising non-banks and the fed has to be sustainably serious on inflation we have the tools and we have the policies to avoid this long

period of stagflation, but the question is will the political system allow these tools to be deployed in a continuous manner and that's why next week is so important. >> and then finally, i wanteded to ask you about crypto. we have the conversations about crypto conversations and what crypto says about the market and i don't know if it's odd or not. people read into me saying something, but it has been more stable than the stock market seemses to have been or at least equities recently and whether you think that's in mi view. >> bitcoin and crypto was going through what tends to have in every generation the over con gsz and you had lots of people

like, that first cycle, end a tier if you're a crypto fan you will welcome what we've seep in the last few months. >> is this the big moment this a true floor is being createded? >> it is the moment where you have a better basis. to before -- i don't think it will become massive a dodoptions when they say 200,000 they assume massive adoption and crypto can and should survive as part of the ecosystem for payments and asset class, particular as it is, it just has to be regulated. >> can it hit bitcoin or ethereum and sit at these levels

and be successful for a very long time. meaning, does it actually have to be worth more >> some people argue that it shouldn't be used as a payment system. >> you can only tell that because a lot depends on the regulators and they have a very important role in answering your question, andrew >> well, thank you for answering ours, mohammed we appreciate it and always look forward to seeing you. >> thanks for having me. >> still to come this morning the man you want to know these days, the this is outside of elon musk himself, of course biographer walter isaacson, he spent the weekend with elon musk and tell us what he saw. >> we'll meet dara khosrowshawhi. you are watching "squawk box" and this is cnbc

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season reports from pfizer, airbnb, starbucks, draft kings and berkshire hathaway on saturday >> the only company that does the saturday release >> out of china, video showing employees allegedly fleeing a gigantic plant joon eunice yoon joins us. the conditions under covid concerns in guangzhou. canteen services would reseem at that facility by november 1st. they said anyone infect or suspected off infects would get

better care and those who decided to stay on would get bonuses of up to $14 a day with the potential of making another half month's salary. so a pretty big bump in salary this all comes as the workers at fox con or several of them have been taking to the internet to complain about a deterioration as they work and live on the site forcing many of them to escape the covid curves and flee to her hometown. they don't believe the product will be impacted at all and coordinating with other facilities to make sure that doesn't happen, but there is a greatdemand for workers and factories just generally in china today as we head into the christmas season we've heard of other business disruption at different companies. shanghai, disneyland, for example. it's going to suspend operations in the theme park.

macau had to shut down one of its casinos and guangzhou which accounts for 25% or so and a quarter of the exports out of china last year say they're shutting a key district and more everyday that the zero covid policy is here for at least some time, guys >> hey, eunice a quick question for you if these workers at the foxcon plant were leaving and there are lots of covid cases and if they're leaving and what does it mean just in terms of the spread of things. that just means they'll be quarantined when they get home local officials in their hometowns were warning foxconn workerses to peak sure they can be quarantined over there. >> not all of those people are confirmed cases, but there is a concern about the spread

>> okay. eunice yoon, thank you we'll see what happens what a story >> coming up, the latest on fast-moving developments on twitter to disturbing content posted since elon musk took over and a reminder, you can get the best of squawk box and follow ua p on your favorite podcast app and listen and time. we're coming right back.

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♪ ♪ welcome back to "squawk box. there are the futures down 150 let's look at treasurys because the ten-year is under control, but back above 4%, as you can see. now about 4.04 and you can see the two-year 4.47. take a look at gold and negative month in a row and that would be the longest losing streak since march of 1982. okay elon musk's first few days and twitter raising a lot of questions about trust in the platform and what's next and julia boorstin joins us with more on that >> there's growing concern about misinformation and hate speech since musk took over after a spike in races posed on the platform and on sunday, musk

himself helped spread misinformation he tweet out a link to an anti-lgbtq theory about the attack on nancy pelosi's husband and he deleted the tweet after it had drawn 86,000 likes and 24,000 re-tweets on the platform gm, a major advertiser has said it's suspending advertising as it has a new direction, dyson, forbes and pbs kids and others are among those suspending their marketing campaigns. the question is whether musk's looser content alienation policies and the eu does have stricter laws about the offensive content than the u.s. does and then the question of employee protection and he would

start firing before december 1st. he did tweet an article in the "new york times" saying this is false. he's reportedly asking users to subscribe to twitter blue for $20 a month in order to be verified and it currently costs $200 a month and not tieded to payment. andrew >> it's fascinating to see what's happened over the weekend. your sense, julia, real quick. in terms of whether wooe really seeing firings or not. part of the issue is are there firings and then are the firings connected to the november 1st issue? >> i think there's a lot of trying to understand what part of these various reportses have been false or not? >> the fact is that he is expected to fire some people and there was the report that he was going to lay off 75% of the staff and over the weekend the reports were that he would lay

off half of twitter's staff or pain he was aing when from what understand that if they they lay off today and the best tomorrow and sort of a rush move in order to not have to pay them and maybe not earn good will from employees there. the issue that will be closely watched and he was sweeting out so much over the weekend and unclear how he sees this as the moneymaking venture right now and how much he's having with it >> julia boorstin, thank you our next guest spent the weekend with elon musk and has been shadowing him quite a lot up and through the twitter takeover and perella wieinberg, two is at tulane university and

a cnbc contributor and most importantly, a biographer of elon musk, working on that book right now. walter, good to see you? are you feeling a little sleep deprived after this weekend? >> no, no, no. it was a very interesting weekend. >> what happened >> well, musk went into twitter around wednesday last week and started working with the teams that he has with other companies that understand the software they even went through lines of the software code to see what was good, what was bad, who was writing the best code and it was a pretty serious assessment and sometimes people get distracted by the little things on twitter that are being tweeted out and there were team of people working there trying to make a transition and to figure out who at twitter is really good and needs to be retained especially on the engineering and software side >> let's start with that before

we get to the shine objects from twitter and just the idea that they're trying to assess 7500 employees there and that there will be layoffs and some of the new stories started with the expectation that no matter who was in charge. hugh deep do you anticipate those cuts being >> i think as you said, even before musk bought twitter and twitter said it would lay off 25%, i think, that was the number kicked around of its employees and certainly the financial model doesn't work there has to be a reduction and i think it's not being done in a slash and burn way they're looking through each department and especially engineering and program and you say who are the best and the of course, there will be cuts made in the workforce there >> elon musk replied to a tweet

saying these cuts would begin tomorrow when the payment was given out for stock options investing, and i guess that would be a cash payment that would be made. is that my happeneding if a when the layoffs are going to begin today, tomorrow, the next day. obviously, you've seen in the parps papers already and i actually do not know the timing compared to the stock option grants. >> a lot of thing hees tweeted about himself and things other people were tweeting whether that be charging for being able to keep your blue check mark whether that be reinstating vine, trying to in some way of coming up with that. any of those things strike you as an idea of something he's already sat on or is this a constant evolution of thought

and testing the waters with the twitter sphere >> as you said, the real question is what does he really plan to do with it and it wasn't a notion of opening up content moderation that has been driving him for the past few weeks and it's a question of how do you do a business model that actually works on twitter and i think he's talked about and i've heard hum talk about ways that will subscribe revenue. so you will have people that are free and users may pay $10 a month and the more you pay certain benefits you get, certain features you get and it also is an incredibly important way and this gets to the content thing to verify that those are rally users. you can still come on the way he has it planned anonymously, but since you'll have to be verified

at least by twitter as a real person and if you put in your credit card information your v veil of an om imity, then people can kick you off the platform and know that you're a real person and that sort of thing. so i think once you get to user verification and a large amount of the users are paying some subscription fee, you have fewer trolls, obviously much fewer ads and you also have a content flow that's a little bit more civil and reliable because people are generally verify, and i assume that the verified users, the ones who have, you know, twitter blue or the blue check marks or they pay the $5 a month, they be the ones that will get amplify

in the algorithm, this not only make sense and i think it is paid to get promoted the most controversial thing we did over the weekend weigh in to on this, and paul pelosi from an unreliable source. if anyone would change his stripes and got back to the stuff he tweeted maybe got a big awakening on that front. what does it spook to as far as how overall web like in that's the biggest question, if there's some conspiracy,

there's a tiny chance that this is true? is that something that should be tweeted? in my opinion, no. certainly when it comes to things that are dangerous to people and are bullying, when you talk about violence or other things now, of course, it's something that i haven't been able to figure out which is when people were tweeting out about the wuhan covid leak possibilities or whether or not masks are a good thing or not to wear. to what extent you can label that is absolutely false, misinformation and to what extent that should be given fair play on a platform that's given a place for town square dialogue so i, you know, i think that he's very unfiltered, but that's something especially was the tweet that served the lat form well >> now, suddenly as the chief twit, if you will.

does he now need to rein, they have morlt al lapses and could twitter answer to -- if we decide what we're going to moderate and what we're not. does that mean elon musk suddenly needs to be the perfect person now that he's running twitter or can he continue to be unhinged >> we had a president that was unh unhinge? >> should elon musk reign in any crazy behavior he's a fun, krazy crazy gow nowt he owns the company and is the chief twit >> that's what everybody has to

answer which is to what extent is the unfiltered nature of elon musk or for that matter, steve jobs or people throughout history in a very tragic day, james watson, the guy who discovers dna, they become unfiltered to what extent can you separate the unfiltered behavior that's bad to the behavior that allows them to deserve great things or to create apple computer and spacex and tesla and to what extent are those interconnected? is that a holistic person there in which the unfiltered nature of the thought is just when he is hey, walter, can you tell us what really happened in terms of him posting that and deleting that tweet skw sort of the back ground of it all he he does very very imput

pulsively, pie fact that he deleted, that became something that was unwise to have out there and there were a whole spate of tweets including the question of whether or not the words were being used again in which he tried to show we'll figure out this content moderation and he's noted the idea of having a panel of different sides of the political spectrum to see how do we figure out what is a very thorny problem, but to get back to your specific question, there are times when he goes off on the corner and he may chuckle. he may be upset. he may be mad and he'll tweet something out. >> if i had to put a -- it would a a five-minute two second

later, it raise potential questions with ongoing or future lawsuits he post posted last some will you now as the own are of this company, suggesting that wachtel lipton and twitter's board kept from the courts. the implication was maybe he would go back to the courts and there's also the issue again of compensation for executives at the senior levels and then perhaps at the lower levels, as well and whether he will fight those payments and whether he will use evidence found in these cases to effectively argue that these firings were for cause >> well, yeah. thursday evening at twitter headquarters, musk is there with his lawyers and some of his bankers and they were in the conference floor of twitter

headquarters and the deal is supposed to be closing and it's not, shall we say the friendliest thing and it's not as if they're bringing down bottles of champagne and it became quite contentious i think musk has said that whether it's on the bot issue or many other issues, he believes he's been misled i would not be surprised at all if their lawsuits involving everything from compensation to people he feels have withheld information from them. >> are they going to other files and it's a privately held company and he can do what he wants. >> i'm not actually sure of that, becky. it's the slack channels of twitter that he bought i do know that he's trying to make things like dms be encrypted, so he cares about

issues like that, but i don't know the legality of going through somebody's work messages when you buy a company >> walter, going back to that thursday night, take us back if you could, and also this idea that there could be lawsuits and it sounds like he's going to try to withhold compensation at least with the most senior executives and i don't know how he's thinking about firings in terms of the november 1st headline and vesting and non-vesting and whether he might to sue for otherwise necessary to tell you about. he's spoke ben all those things and feeling that information was withheld i don't know how successful this

would be, but i suspect this would be on court and it closed rather quickly late in the evening east coast time while his bankers and lawyers were gathered at twitter and it was done in a way so that some of this, severance payments are now in jeopardy. so that, too, will be something that could and probably will be litigated. >> walter. we have to run, but when do you think you'll actually finish this book? everything time you close it out something else happens >> i'm just an observer. i don't tell them what to do, but if i could tell them something whoa, whoa, whoa, don't do anything totally craze in the next few month because i have to start typing. >> you never get writer's block and all work and no play -- >> this one is so exiting that i

don't like to be at the computer. >> can't wait to read it, walter thank you, becky >> thank you >> we'll see you soon. >> yes make him stop doing stuff so you can write it so we can read it >> when we come back, we'll get jim cramer's take on the final trading day of the month if you want to learn how to maximize your finances and invest in a brighter future. join us tomorrow for cnbc's your money, just register to cnbc.com thank you. we'll be right back.

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welcome back to "squawk box. we want to get back to the new york stock exchange. our good friend jim cramer is there. it will be quite a week. quit a week we have on our hands and we'll from jay powell and i'm curious how you think we should even begin about which way the markets will go and the goldman report suggesting that we'll get to 5% in terms of the rates. >> the goldman reports are disturbing i have to admit that mike wilson's sharp decline and inflation piece is stronger and more rigorous than the goldman piece. i think he's got a better handle

on it. he's got a better handle on everything we have to look back and say there's this big donor deal going on between tech and the rest of the market and the downgrades seem almost tiresome when you have a downgrade of caterpillar. are you kidding me we are having a major move in this market away from leaders, a very small group of leaders and many different parts of the economy including one goldman likes and to me that says if the fed tightens 75 and then says you know, we're going to wait. you will have another leg up and have a good november and then we go to the midterms and that's good so i think there are a few more down days and we have a good run at thanksgiving. >> it's unheralded. >> what people are trying to understand is this a short term run and a bull rally in a bear market or is this something else >> it's very hard to have a

month that's the best since 1976 and still call it a bear market. i mean, there are bear market spike, but we don't get month spikes and we might look back and think this was a decent time and we had a pivot because the winning. there's a lot of people -- no one ever talks anymore about jay powell being too soft, i'll tell you that much. >> jim, before we let you go, because we promised every guest somehow about elon musk one way or the other, your take about what's happened over the weekend and potentially your take on how the interests may collide with twitter and then of course the publicly traded company that is tesla. >> i read a good piece in the verge this weekend about how there's just -- it's a no-win situation. i do think because it's elon musk, we have to wait and see what he does but we're seeing the erratic elon musk, the musk that got dragged into something he might not want to, the one

where a 70% of the people don't want him to charge i don't know you know, i think that at twitter's a vicious cesspool and it's only getting worse and i don't know how to change that. there used to be great interaction between people who mentioned and then you, but you can't really gothere anymore and anybody who has any success knows that twitter's worthless when it comes to anything other than just promoting a given album, given book, given event, because there's no more interaction. the interaction was the strength of twitter >> what do you think's happened to the pay do you think this goes to court? >> no. i think -- i don't think the guy has time for court >> jim cramer -- >> by the way, there are people, my friends from south africa, truly think that his politics are very suspect, andrew i mean, extreme suspect. >> interesting

interesting. okay, well, that's a longer conversation, jim. maybe we'll have to do it again tomorrow >> i'm talking about knowing the family, okay >> okay. this is like a tease of sorts, maybe, for "squawk on the street." maybe you'll reveal what you mean a reminder, join us tomorrow, where we're going to have uber ceo dara khosrowshahi. that interview comes your way at 7:30 eastern time. you don't want to miss it. real-time ticket upgrade! meaning...

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just over half an hour to the opening bell on this final day of october joining us to talk about the markets in the month ahead, elise, global investment strategist at jpmorgan private bank let's go back to friday, elise the fed sees that number -- the gdp number, was it thursday? i don't know they see it and suddenly it's, wow, 2.6%. that's much better than a couple of down quarters so, does that mean, oh my god, we got to go another 0.75 at least twice? or do they see that friendly inflation figure that was in there? what do you think was more important to what -- to their viewpoint?

>> well, i don't necessarily think that we should miss the forest for the trees, so to speak. that likely was kind of a bump in the overall context of the slump, as it pertains to economic growth, to the details of that, you know that a lot of the upside was driven by the trade component of gdp, and you've still got these indicators like housing, which, at this point, you know, within the gdp report, showed a decline of about 25% thinking about what we learned on friday from the employment cost index, you know, sure, we're starting to see some price pressures roll over, but that level of price pressure is still well above what would be consistent with the fed's mandate, so we're not expecting the fed to necessarily shift course and very much still think they're on track for 75 basis points at this meeting and likely 50 basis points in december, right in line with what they put out in the sep a couple months ago. >> i can see it that way, a

reversion to the mean, in terms of both the 2.6% and the inflation number not being quite as hot but in a perfect world, those two things together are not stagflation. they're what we want they're economic growth with maybe cooling inflation. and we have been so worried about stagflation, you know, that i'll almost take it, at least even if it's just a blip, as you said, or a bump, but even when you said 50 basis points, i've been calling that a swivel. if it's not too straight 75s, it might not be a pivot, but the rest of the world seems to be swiveling a little too isn't the writing on the wall that maybe we're making progress in what the fed is trying to do and maybe we're -- we don't have to go -- the worst case scenario is about how far they go that may not come to pass >> yes, and i do think that you saying, i don't want to call it a pivot, i'd rather call it a

swivel, is right on course we've known that the fed had this intention of front-loading policy rate hikes, and it seems like we're kind of at the end of that period of front-loading, but to be clear, tightening is not over yet our base case expectation is that the terminal rate gets to 4.75 we haven't erased the probability of a soft landing but the base case is with the amount of tightening that's been put into play so far year to date with the weakness you're seeing in areas of the economy like the housing market, we continue to think that there's a high probability that the u.s. economy doesn't get out of this unscathed, and you know, we're kind of positioning for the heightened probability of a u.s. recession starting in the second half of next year. >> and it would be a low probability that the terminal rate is a point higher than 4.75 then all bets are off at that

point. we've misjudged how sticky the inflation numbers will be and the market's probably gotten ahead of itself too, if we were to go to 5.75 or 6%? >> definitely. i think we're not calling that a zero probability we think it's a lower probability than the fed being able to stop right below 5%, but i think the market has been trying to sniff out this potential pause that could come in the first quarter of next year we're just continuing to focus on the data, just like the fed is, given that they've emphasized that they're no longer trying to forecast, and they're really focusing on the realized information that's coming in about the economy. >> all right, elise, thank you time will tell big important week for a lot of reasons, fed and a lot more earnings be good to have -- that's a great service, uber. finally. >> now you're there? >> i really -- i haven't done the uber eats yet, but i've been stuck in the rain here with no cabs, and it really saved our

bacon. >> saved your bacon? the pricing is just through the roof, though >> i know that >> i have to say we'll talk to dara about it tomorrow, but i got stuck with a bill over the weekend that was something, i'll tell you >> good things aren't cheap, cheap things aren't good, you know that. happy halloween. happy halloween. >> i serve at your pleasure, joe. >> make sure you join us tomorrow >> wait, wait, wait. >> put those on. that's nice. >> happy halloween >> sq"squawk on the street" is next ♪ good monday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer and david faber at the new york stock exchange. futures are red on this halloween. we close out october today with the dow on track for its best month since the '70s fed meeting, jobs friday eyeing these october records as futures point to a lower