finally -- and really -- >> weiss >> it's my final trade into the breakup tomorrow >> in philly, go for it. >> honeywell, ash hoping -- you can stick with this one here. >> that does it for halftime "the exchange" begins right now. >> and i am brian sullivan in for kelly. and is recession all but guaranteed paul mckelly is here to give us his take on it all this won't help. potential diesel disaster. prices soaring as supplies reach critical low levels in many areas. politicians blaming the company. we'll lay out what's really going on a broad range of companies set to release their numbers we'll get you ready for pfizer,

uber and others, but let's begin by a man who is smiling, whose 49ers smoked the rams. >> it's a trend. >> that miscalfry kid hag a future down 29 points, and it's been generally negative, at the highs of the session, we were still down about eight points. down 38 to give you some context around where that trading range sits 10,983 over 1% losses. so keep that in mind a place to keep a close on from a make rho perspective is the energy trade oil prices are down on the day, and there's talk now about

possible hypothetical for certainly energy companies we talked about this potentially, those energy stocks right now generally, even though the sector overall is negative -- floating between negative and positive. the xle is unfortunate 0.5%. the reason i want to call attention to that, this spans here is working on an 11-day winning stream. >

. up about 10% right now, this after billionaire investor and casino mag nate tilman fertitta, a name a lot of folks known, how disclosed a north of 6% stake in wynn resorts that makes him the second biggest individual shareholders in wynn, second only to the cofounder elaine wynn herself. >> news we had this morning, dom, it's a being play for tillman who's been building the stake for a while now, i'm told. we get their latest decision they're expected to raise them again. but it's more about what the fed says about the future than what they do on wednesday let's dive into that

>> what do you expect from the fed? what would you like to see from the fed? >> hopefully there would be some con co c congruance, and i think fed chair will preannounce they're stepping down to 50 from 75. so i think that's why the marketplace has been rallying. i think that would be validated. so that will be a good time, if you will at the same time, i think mr. powell will leaven, if you will, the enjoyment by stressing they

have more tightening to do in 2023, that they don't want to have the market do what it did last summer, and have too much exuberance so i think he's going to deliver what the market is expecting, 75 in a preannouncement of a step down to 50 in december, but i think he's going to press the outlook for next year to higher for longer i think that's the combo he's going to try to work with on wednesday. >> if you're right, and you probably are, is the market going to like that bond market? stock market i think it would validate what the markets have done over the last couple weeks. so i think that we will restore the confidence of some decent prospects, perhaps of a soft landing. i think it will be good news from that standpoint, but for

those hope that what he does tomorrow will de facto mark the end of the tightening cycle, i think he will push really hard back against that. if they even give the slightest hint what they're going to do for the rest of the year is it for this cycle, then i think they could get far too much easing in financial conditions i don't think that he's going to give everybody what they want, but i think he will give the market what it needs >> that's a good kick in the inflation teeth. the three-month ten-year spread -- that sounds crazy -- has basically 100% recession predicting historical -- that doesn't mean it's going to happen again, but do you believe what that part of the bond curve is the telling us, paul? is recession inevitability >> it's not inevitable, but i

take that signal is incredibly important. it's profound versus the inversion between the two-year and the ten-year earlier in the year people kept say recession, recession, recession i think once you indirt, basically the ranks you get on stuff that always trades at par versus the ten-year, that is a huge warning signal that the fed needs to slow down the pace. not stop, but definitely slow down i take it incredibly seriously i think the fomc does as well. you can't say that three-month to ten-year is just the market doing what it does no, the fed put the three-month where they're putting it. >> we're hearing a lot of stuff about inflation, report -- by the way, every industry has record profits, because they had

record demand and didn't have to discount to what -- if i had to say one thing was the reason for inflation, how would you answer? >> only one thing, brian >> yeah, i'm stingy, i'm a scrooge. [ laughter ] >> actually i will go with the supply side of the economy if you constrain me on that question, if that people think of terms of monetary and fiscal policy, it stimulated the demand side i think that's true, but even if we had more temperate monetary and fiscal stimulus particularly fiscal stimulus, i think that we would have had an inflationary response because of the supply side, which is why i'm optimistic as we are moving out and it corrects itself and

demand slows, this inflation surge will end in the fullness of time, prove to be transitory. >> there he goes speaking of transit, by the way, everything you're saying i agree with, unless we have a nationwide rail strike if we have a nationwide rail strike in a month, that's a whole different inflation story, and jay powell better put on hi conjunction function engineer hat. >> that would be a shock, and i think it would be a negative shock for the economy on top of slowing on the back of monetary tightening i don't think it would have to be something that chair powell would have to respond to he can't drive a train i think you just have to take it as a giving. if anything, that would certainly weaken the economy so even though it might increase inflation in the short run, i

don't think it would require a response at all. if anything, it would make they kinder and gentler, i think. that would be a nasty, nasty shock. >> i mention it, because it's not impossible it's less than a month from now. paul, i appreciate it all time >> good to see you. let's bring it back to the macro markets and the money. if we don't get a pivot from the fed, can this nice stock rally roll on? >> it sounds like he's more on the hawkish damp what would that matter for equity markets >> brian, nice to be with you again. i hadn't heard the word "transitory" used in a business, so he's resuscitating it, and i hope he's right. i'm encouraged by the last

couple weeks i think the best way to look is the market is hurting in all the right places let's say i've been in an accident, you go into surgery, a day later the doctor comes in and you saw how are you feeling and you say it hurts here and there, and she smiles and says, that means you're getting better i think the market is acting that way now it's hurting the market as large-cap tech, but i think it's quite healthy to see the leadership, at least the last half a decade really taking it on a chin finally. so we have the capitulation of really the last man standing what we need to see, also, is we need to appreciate the rest of the market is doing well general motors bottomed in early july costco bottomed in may believe it or not -- this is my favorite example, the homebuilder etf, even in the face of rising rates bottomed in the middle of june, now 10%

higher, even though mortgage rains are now over 7%. with you exception of tech, which i think needs to suffer morn, i think it's acting pretty reliably this could all disappear together, but it's acting like it's making a bottom reian dietrich showing that november the last ten year has actually been the best performing month for the s&p 500 it's a need stats, but does it mark to you?

sew i think that the election next week could be the catalyst to put some incertainly behind the market the nasdaq is down 31% there's been a lot of damage done the important thing for investors to remember is the market is not the economy. it will bottom first right now we're living through the beauty of low expectations there's nobody padding the table on took, so those are the things that bottoms are made of give you a to be we said to own right now. we like opportunity. >> one you're all going to hate, homebuilder, nvr, it's a terrific company, made it through the downturn without losing money that's because they don't take any land risk at all they reported mea yolkers earnings last week look, they home builders are

left for dead. unless you believe we're going into a deep recession, which i don't believe, i believe there would be big pockets ahead. chris, tang care >> thanks, brian for more ideas on how to get the most out of the your investments, join us tomorrow for. there's to be experts, and scan the qr code on the screen or register at cnbcevents.com. are parts of america about to run out of diesel fuel? what a big windfall tax actually work both of those ahead, plus shots, semis and sharing rides. the numbers to watch and the narrative to know, pfizer, uber and more reports their numbers stick around

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welcome back don't look now, but a perfect storm is underway in the diesel fuel market. supplies are down, but particularly, low levels on the mississippi river are screwing

up shilts in the midwest so how will this all. >> a the lo of blame going around >> you've got the three-point storm, that you just talked about. what happens here and why it's such a problem is we have an accuse diesel supplies in the northeast. so when you have a drought-stricken mississippi, and then you have the possibility of a rail strike, all of this then moves all of the, if you will, trade to the rails, which then contributes to the higher prices. diesel inventories as you pointed out, are the lowest, and the greatest shortfall is here in the northeast, including new york and new jersey. >> yeah, the northeast -- let's

be honest, the northeast is always the short end of the stick, because we're at the end of the stick there's no pipelines, refineries are not coming on line, so now we look to ships i got comments motion ago from the department of homeland security about the jones act. >> folks that don't know what the jones act is, it pretty much prohibit a foreign vessels to go from one u.s. port to another u.s. port. homeland security said they would only grant a waiver to the jones act if the proposed shipments are in the interests of national defense, and after a careful valuation. under the law, waivers that do not meet the standard must be reviewed case by case, mean that an have had tanker would have to approach the department of homeland security to see if they would be allowed to move that critical fuel. >> yeah, that would be an interest develop if that jones

act, which a lot of people call outdated, but we still need a u.s. maritime industry thank you very much for the important story. let's turn to tom for more is it possible certain parts or distributors run out of diesel >> you know, it's possible, but i think the fact that we've got this warning signal this month there's tremendous -- and back and running, and as we mentioned, october had the most refinery maintenance in the united states i would suggest if we don't, we may see some sdwroens act waivers next month in december. and then you might sending a lot of diesel to be burning up in

the chimneys. >> a lot of our viewers and listeners have -- but what they may not understand -- police, if this is wrong say i'mwrong -- it's hard to believe, but it can be cheaper to ship something from the jones act from houston to istanbul than houston to new york. >> you can go around the world on what a jones act vessel might charge back with sandy we had things going from the gulf coast to savannah, at 15, 20 cents a there's ownership about -- they tend tore time chartered so even if you have the wherewithal to move it, there aren't many available. they tend to be taken, almost like pieces of a monopoly board.

>> later today, the president is going to talk about potentially a windfall tax there's nothing new, by the way. we had one from 1980 to 1986 that led to lower u.s. production actually increased imports, so congress eventually scrapped it, because imported oil didn't pay the tax, so people were just importing more, producing less there were calls in 2006, again by some members of congress now and this law -- or at least the appropriate -- has been around for about a year obviously the election is in a week, and you could muddle it up with politics all you want, but would it work? >> i lived during the price controls in the '70s i was a young man, but i remember it created a lot of chaos. they've been having just epic, epic times, the price of diesel

hag averaging about $148, and crude owl has been pedestrian, about $87, there's no question about it -- and pfizer and moderna as well, you know, we need vaccine we need diesel the in the next months. are you one of the lucky ones that doesn't owe federal income taxes we'll have more. and intel, am -- and more.

we're back after this.

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position global payments smvt worst performers revenue was a bit better, the yond going fx and covid headwinds, and first solar getting a boost after bank of america racing its targets facebook's decline just continues, meta stock down again, another 5%, 6%, stock's at $93 that's pretty soon to be the lowest price since 2015. we're already at the lowers since 2016, anyway, we're going to wipe out seven years of investor gains in facebook, mesa let's go down to the real tyler mathisen for a update.

>> i am so not meta. a former michigan police officer who shot a black motorist in the back of the head will stand trial for second-degree murder a jury will decide whether his use of deadly force was necessary. a defense attorney says he was defending himselves when lyoya would not give up. dr. walensky is have been a second bout of covid in less than two weeks she first tested positive october 21st, with mild symptoms before testing negative once again. she received a new positive test yesterday, and isolating, working from home. spacex plans to launch its first ship into space. it's a key step toward flying nasa astronauts to the moon. starship prototypes like the ones seen here have been under

development for years. on the news tonight, new polls just how tight the rate to control the senate is. that's tonight 7:00 with shipp smith. >> an election eight days from here i've heard something about it. still ahead, jeff kild burg is here, and will uber-ever stop losing money all of that is next. do i just focus on when things don't work, and not appreciate when they do? i love it when work actually works! i just booked this parking spot... this desk... and this conference room! i am filing status reports on an app that i made! i'm not even a coder! and it works!... i like your bag! when your digital solutions work, the world works. that's why the world works with servicenow. hi, my name is tony cooper.

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welcome back times now for earnings exchanges, where we give you the story, the trade, and bigger reports that hit the tape tonight or tomorrow. pfizer, and uber today stock number one, that is nxp. the stock has had a rough run. kristina partsinevelos has the story, and jeff kilburg has your trade today. kick it off. >> the positive thing is it has a lot of exposure to auto more

specifically, 50% of the revenue comes from the auto sector, so that's the story they're telling analysts and the media, that that will help hem drive through this correction. you also add the fact that nxp has about 80% of its products. in the revision to the outlook you have a big correct the stock price, so they may start to lower their estimates that's what we'll be looking for for q4, as well as the full year. >> jeff, speaking of lowering, the valuation has also come down you think the stock has had ups and downs, but does look cheap

compared to some of its competitors. >> to kristina's point, the exposure to automotive is its focus. but everything we want more of, is the world we live in, and nxp is deliver i know a lot of analysts out there from open higher, with the price targets, they're still over overweight, so i like this $38 billion semiconductor, because it's slight her different than owning the broad swath of smh. stock number two, kristina, thank you very much. that stock is uber their numbers -- don't call them earnings -- they're out tomorrow, more losses are in store for the company, but the pace of those losses should drop

considerably deirdre bosea joins us now you set it up so well, brian don't look for gap earnings, but look at the trajectory, house it's getting there that can be tricky, because they like to report on adjusted ebitda it's also messy, because they have these other investments in volatile companies like aurora, grab and a numbers of others we'll see how ebetter is -- and, of course, there's just rider and delivery demand, how is that holding up usually they get some color, and we're looking at guidance for that. >> a couple things there i'm going to put a bit on the spot feel free to say shove it,

sul sullivan has any company ever lost more than uber? it's just been years i wonder if there's been a record >> i love the service, but is it possible they don't have a business model in some states in a couple years >> it's possible i would also state that it is unlikely the ceo has been working a lot more with regulators than his predecessor, so there's a better chance to figure it out. this is still a possibility even on the national level the knock on uber is they use all those dollars to subsidize the business

i'm not so sure. i will give them that they are getting better, but free cash flow, stock-based compensation, this is a tricky company to understand. >> it is i love the service, met some great drivers. the guy's building a business, a first-generation american, so i wish him the best, but to deirdre's point, you have to separate the company from the stock, right we like the company, we like the service, but man, the stock -- there's a lot of headwinds, how much are you going to pay for a burger delivery? >> one step further, from a user of uber to a stock owner, it feels like they've been wear ago zombie halloween costume

there's so much uncertainly around it. yes, the political landscape, will they classify them as workers or nothing they're rolling out positive ads maybe that's the opportunity to get positives. but their ad revenue in 2020 was $11 million. in 2021, it was $140 million they're forecasting over a trillion in 2024 maybe that -- as --. and then it's like, buy hanes brand -- deirdre, you can see you itching to get back in here. >> you don't have to get into an uber to see those ads. i agree. i think this could be a higher-margin business for them.

>> yeah, listen, you get in the car, like at o'hare, jeff, it's can be the best burgers in the suburbs. >> no doubt. >> d-bosa, thank you very much by the way, we talked about uber, the ceo knows something about his company. he'll be on "squawk box" tomorrow morning pfizer reporting before 9 bell tomorrow still on pace for the worst year since 2008 the street bracing for a 12% drop in sales year over year, driven by declining sales and demand for the covid vaccine, though it did announce plans to hike prices by up to four times the current price. you go to get a covid shot, what was it, $120 or $130 analysts also watching for growth in other sergeantments.

the supply chain pressures obviously, engineer, pfizer, like it or not, has kind of become a covid stock i kind of feel bad for them. all we talk about is the vaccine now. there's other thing at work. do you like the stock, though? >> sully, what is fascinating, we've seen the momentum in healthcare, and how it continue to say move higher, but the bridge we talked about, going from government-funded covid shots to the commercial market that's going to be fascinating that moves the whole market. moderna was up 18% after they had they were going to go up to $130 for the shot. technically i do like owning the

stock. so a lot of momentum lastly, i heard on "halftime report" that steve weiss was selling -- >> he's not even or to defend himself. >> i know. that's it for earnings exchange still ahead, more than 72 million households will pay zero fed federal income tax this year we'll look at how and how, next, with robert an frk. thinkorswim® by td ameritrade is more than a trading platform. it's an entire trading experience. with innovation that lets you customize interfaces, charts and orders to your style of trading.

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roughly 40% may not be paying federal tax, but it may not debt the demographic you think. robert frank has more.

>> brian, this is one of those tax issues that has a huge amount of misinformation here are the fact, a new study fins more than 72 million households will pay no federal taxes, about 40% of the total. that number is falling by a lot. in 2020, it was 59% of americans who paid no federal -- last year 56%. the main reasons for the drops are higher wages, more jobs, fewer government tax credits while many say it's the wealthy who don't pay taxes, most you low to middle-income earns e. now that the standard deduction is $26,000 so another 28% make between 30 and 60 thousand a year as howard glickman said, people who don't pay income tax have

very little income only 0.6% of those making more than $190,000 a year will pay no federal income tax this year, and brian, most of them pay taxes in other years, that that top quinntile did not -- >> this people sets people off, and here's the thing you're talking about net effective income tax you can pay federal taxes, but then you get a refund, they also, of course, do pay fica, social security and medicare the reality is this, if you have two kids, own a home and make $100 a year, even in the midwest, you're probably paying very little, correct because that standard deduction is now $26,000

i'm not saying it's right or wrong, but let's be clear. we're not talking about people who don't make any money >> you're absolutely right we're just talking federal income taxes people also pay sales taxes, often property taxes, even through their rent if you have kids, the child care tax credit is at a much higher level than in 2017 the standard deduction means anyone making less than $30,000 isn't paying taxes, and so, you're right, this is ned federal income taxes, and you can have a fairly high income in some places, and still not pay net federal income taxes it doesn't mean you're not paying taxes. >> that's got to be clear, because people get jumpy federal income taxes gotten to fund the military. they go to fund the fda, food

safety, federal aid. the federal government spends -- they're going to need money, and so, tax law may be changing. robert frank, really important story, thanks for straightening it out for us. we appreciate it all right. ahead, rock on we're going to have a little fun. the ceo of fender guitar will join us. and why the average go ahead tar player may buy more than ten guitars a year in their life. wells fargo yow grade been, and say it can no longer justify -- amid an uncertainty direct-to-consumer outlook, and they see it falling another 30%. ouch we're back after this. welcome to ameriprise. i'm sam morrison, my brother max recommended you. so my best friend sophie says you've been a huge help. at ameriprise financial, more than 9 out of 10 of our clients are likely to recommend us.

our neighbors the garcia's, love working with you. because the advice we give is personalized. hey john reese, jr. how's your father doing? to help reach your goals with confidence. my sister told me so much about you. that's why it's more than advice worth listening to. it's advice worth talking about. ameriprise financial. we planned well for retirement, but i wish we had more cash. you think those two have any idea? that they can sell their life insurance policy for cash? so they're basically sitting on a goldmine? i don't think they have a clue. that's crazy! well, not everyone knows coventry's helped thousands of people sell their policies for cash. even term policies. i can't believe they're just sitting up there! sitting on all this cash. if you own a life insurance policy of $100,000 or more, you can sell all or part of it to coventry. even a term policy. for cash, or a combination of cash and coverage, with no future premiums. someone needs to tell them, that they're sitting on a goldmine, and you

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all right. welcome back we've been talking with our next guest since the pandemic began when his company, fender, couldn't make guitars fast enough he told us an astounding 16 million americans picked up a guitar

as inflation persists, people return to the office, whatever, they're starting toe demand soften, and input costs increase by 15% to 30%. andy, good you have to you back on how are sales right now? >> they have softened, particularly at the low end. the high end continuing to be very robust. the million you quoted was u.s. oechbl we estimate 30 million players came in during covid and some are already starting to trade up already. >> making a guitar, especially yours, by the way, which are fantastic, is so not only skill intensive, but tomorrow intensive. from where you sit, do you see inflation coming down? >> coming down >> yeah. >> i see costs coming down in only a few isolated areas.

transportation would be one, but almost everything else is heading in the upward direction. labor costs worldwide, uponen costs worldwide, and we still are very much in component part shortages, particularly in electronics. >> you're talking about an important story. we're on cnbc, we tent to look at numbers, and, like, look, price of balsa wood is down, but the price of the guide that puts it together, that skilled technician, by the way, takes years to perfect their craft, they're going to be paid more. >> yeah, for sure, and our corona factory in california, we're competing with 14 amazon warehouses in the inland empire, particularly this time of year, when you want a lot of labor to deal with the uptick in demand, it's a competitive labor market. >> yeah, can you find people

i hear this from businesses all over the countries, i posted on linkedin and twitter, and nobody believes me, that you just can't find people. it's difficult as a ceo, railroad saying we have to plan for a recession user accent is not from arkansas you know what uk and europe is going through. how do you see the world >> announcer: costs are going through the roof, along with the other inflationary, fort naturally asia pacific is very robust right now

so, but, yeah, i think europe's going to be a real challenge i thy when the dust settles it will be at a higher revenue plateau. i think last year's best song was "17 going under" with sam fender do you have a deal >> yes, we we do we actually help aspiring younger artists trying to break through on the a we had a relationship with sam >> by the way, just a unique

votes, mar northeastern england. andy mooney, really appreciate your time, of fender. >> my pleasure check it out a surprising political upset in brazil's presidential election mes thee, xtit latest on what anwi smane ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ be ready for any market with a liquid etf. get in and out with dia. what if you were a major transit system with billions of passengers taking millions of trips every year? you aren't about to let any cyberattacks slow you down.

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the millions to find success - on their own terms. start your journey with a free trial today. welcome back the brazilian voters have spoken and seema -- a new leader, who was also the old leader. >> it was the tightest margin. the top agenda item will be the economy. so far the market's reaction has

minksed. with near ly 6 billion >> with more than a market, on who he appoints expecting a relief rally, if they -- however, with the divided congress, passing bills and infrastructure spending will be a challenge. that's why experts say he'll have to use the negotiating power and carry a more centrist agenda lula will be sworn in january 1st. so far no acknowledgement from the current president bolsonaro. >> very quickly petrobras, why is it down

i spoke to a there is concerns about investors about maintaining a kernel level folks that's correct does it for us, "power lunch" starts right now. here's what's ahead on a busy monday last day the of month and surprises advise for investors it says walk, i following dress, plus a housing hard lander , to weather a real estate